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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: The twenty first century has seen China investing big in Africa.

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Speaker 2: Lending skyrocketed from one hundred and thirty eight million dollars

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Speaker 2: in two thousand to a high of twenty eight billion

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Speaker 2: dollars in twenty sixteen. But African leaders in Beijing this

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Speaker 2: week find China with a much smaller checkbook than before.

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Speaker 3: At the end of the day, China has been that

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Speaker 3: guy around the corner with, you know, a bouquet of

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Speaker 3: flowers to Africa, the US, you know, Europe and the

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Speaker 3: UK have time and time again say be careful of

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Speaker 3: the flowers you see out of the window, they have

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Speaker 3: thrones on them.

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Speaker 2: The Belt and Road initiatives saw China going big on

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Speaker 2: loan led diplomacy, but a changing economic situation in Africa

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Speaker 2: and at home means now China wants to know what

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Speaker 2: it's back from the continent.

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Speaker 1: The product prices declined, the wage grows, the remains slow,

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Speaker 1: labor market remains loose. There are all points too that

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Speaker 1: consumption recovery well likely remain softer in the next couple

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Speaker 1: of months.

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Speaker 2: On Today's Next Africa podcast, as the China Africa Stomic

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Speaker 2: continues in Beijing. We'll ask what's brought on the change

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Speaker 2: of heart and whether this new focus will bring in

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Speaker 2: more investment or just burden countries with billions more debt

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Speaker 2: than they actually can handle.

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Speaker 4: So when China stepped into the field, it was much

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Speaker 4: welcomed by the developing world that there would be increase

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Speaker 4: financing for infrastructure. However, with the rush to get projects

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Speaker 4: off the ground, to put them into action and to

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Speaker 4: begin construction, critical due diligence was often left by the wayside.

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Speaker 4: What this has ended up causing is states to take

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Speaker 4: on projects that they initially thought were affordable, but unfortunately

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Speaker 4: they've been now saddled by debt.

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Speaker 2: I'm Jennifer's Abasadja and this is the Next Africa Podcast,

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Speaker 2: bringing you one story each week from the continent, driving

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Speaker 2: the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: can provide. Our Africa Deputy Managing Editor Neil Munchi and

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Speaker 2: our Africa and Middle East correspondent Peter Martin are here

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Speaker 2: with us now. Peter also lived there in China for

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Speaker 2: eight years and wrote a book on it as well,

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Speaker 2: So thank you both so much for joining us. I

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Speaker 2: know you're covering the summit extensively, but appreciate you taking

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Speaker 2: the time to be on the podcast. Let's just start

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Speaker 2: with a bit of the history. As I just outlined,

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Speaker 2: Chinese lending to Africa has ballooned over the past few decades.

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Speaker 2: What was behind the flood of money? I mean, take

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Speaker 2: us back to where it all started.

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Speaker 5: In the early two thousands, China and Chinese companies were

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Speaker 5: just starting the global expansion. They talked about having a

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Speaker 5: going out strategy which would see them extend their footprints

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Speaker 5: around the world and become truly multinational corporations. And as

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Speaker 5: they looked at different markets, they saw that it was

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Speaker 5: going to be tough to get into North America, tough

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Speaker 5: to get into Europe. Africa looked like a huge area

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Speaker 5: of opportunity. It was somewhere where China could look to

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Speaker 5: extract important natural resources from oil to critical minerals, and

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Speaker 5: it was also a potential market for Chinese companies as

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Speaker 5: they sought to produce consumer products. And so they really

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Speaker 5: started to focus in on the market at that stage

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Speaker 5: and extended lending and all kinds of preferential treatment to

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Speaker 5: their companies as they sought to expand.

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Speaker 2: And Neil I imagine China's investment was attractive to many

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Speaker 2: African countries that were still sort of in development. But

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Speaker 2: how did it differ from the lending or the investment

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Speaker 2: opportunities that they were getting from some of the other

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Speaker 2: big players like the World Bank or the IMF.

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Speaker 6: It's not just that the ticket sizes were so much

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Speaker 6: bigger and it was so much more money. Also that

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Speaker 6: other institutions, Western Powers, the Middle East, no one else

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Speaker 6: was really offering kind of anything in comparison and compared

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Speaker 6: to the World Bank and IMF, China, happily for many

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Speaker 6: African governments, doesn't accompany their loans with any sort of

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Speaker 6: environmental or human rights conditions or lectures on that front.

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Speaker 6: And this was at a time when economists broadly agreed,

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Speaker 6: as they still do, most African countries need a ton

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Speaker 6: of money to build major infrastructure to develop their economies

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Speaker 6: and bring their people out of poverty. So this was

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Speaker 6: widely welcomed across the continent.

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Speaker 2: So then what did we see early on? What were

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Speaker 2: some of the projects that were being financed by China

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Speaker 2: to African countries and governments.

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Speaker 6: I mean, you can see it across the continent right now, roads, bridges, dams, airports,

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Speaker 6: electricity grids, you name it, right, essential stuff. But the

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Speaker 6: record of the Belton Road initiative is mixed. It's not

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Speaker 6: clear that it was universally good or universally bad. Right.

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Speaker 6: So you have some projects, like there's a hydropowered dam

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Speaker 6: in Zambia that's been hailed as sort of like an

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Speaker 6: economic game changer, built with I think two billion dollars

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Speaker 6: in Chinese loans. There are other projects. I'm here in Nairobi,

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Speaker 6: five ten miles away is a railroad terminus. This railroad

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Speaker 6: was supposed to go from the Kenyan coast to into

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Speaker 6: Uganda and it ends in the middle of nowhere, one

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Speaker 6: hundred miles from Nairobi. Because at some point the Beldon

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Speaker 6: Roade initiative screeched to a halt and ken You is

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Speaker 6: still paying the debt on that project to this day.

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Speaker 2: And maybe we can touch to on the Baltin Road

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Speaker 2: initiative a little bit more, Peter, I mean, what was

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Speaker 2: the intention of this initiative by the Chinese government.

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Speaker 5: This was Hijinping's kind of signature initiative that he kicked

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Speaker 5: off in twenty twelve, twenty thirteen, and he saw it

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Speaker 5: as a way to fill a desperate need for infrastructure

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Speaker 5: across the developing world by extending Chinese loans to countries,

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Speaker 5: but of course also caught political influence. In the first

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Speaker 5: few years when the project kicked off, it looked like

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Speaker 5: it was going to be pretty transformative in its impact.

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Speaker 5: But as China's own economy has faced head winds, it's

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Speaker 5: been scaled back, partly because China can't afford the burden

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Speaker 5: of extending that much lending, and also partly because Chinese

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Speaker 5: companies realized they may not now get repaid for some

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Speaker 5: of those loans.

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Speaker 2: And we talked so much across Bloomberg really about the

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Speaker 2: state of China's economy right now. I mean, can you

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Speaker 2: put it into perspective for us, because maybe that would

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Speaker 2: help explain why they've scaled back. But a lot of

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Speaker 2: the world is paying attention to what's happening there.

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Speaker 6: Pete exactly.

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Speaker 5: For three decades from the nineteen nineties through the two

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Speaker 5: thousand and twenty tens, China experienced double digit growth, and

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Speaker 5: that was something that Western investors and many Chinese policymakers

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Speaker 5: thought was set to continue, perhaps for many more decades

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Speaker 5: to come. That has not turned out to be the case.

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Speaker 5: Chinese economy now faces pretty severe headwinds. In the short term,

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Speaker 5: there's a property downturn, which is which is impacting growth.

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Speaker 5: Retail sales are down, consumer spending is down. But there

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Speaker 5: are also long term headwinds for the Chinese economy, like

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Speaker 5: its aging population or the need to pivot from its

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Speaker 5: investment driven model of growth towards consumer driven growth. That's

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Speaker 5: something that's been really difficult. So, you know, from ten

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Speaker 5: percent a few decades ago, Goldman expects at four point

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Speaker 5: nine percent growth for the Chinese economy this year.

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Speaker 2: Just going back to this Belton Road initiative and a

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Speaker 2: lot of the loans that China had extended, I mean,

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Speaker 2: were they ever able to make back any of the

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Speaker 2: payment that they had made, especially at a time when

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Speaker 2: they probably need it.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, it's a mixed bag. Of course, many

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Speaker 5: countries are laboring under the need to repay those loans now,

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Speaker 5: so some of them are being repaid, but a lot

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Speaker 5: of nations actually can't make the repayment, so China has

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Speaker 5: had to kind of scramble and extend emergency loans to

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Speaker 5: countries like Nisir, which heavily indebted to China. Obviously, it's

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Speaker 5: not in China's interest for these countries to default. It

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Speaker 5: wants to find ways to kick the can down the road,

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Speaker 5: but it also wants to preserve its reputation as a

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Speaker 5: lender that doesn't extend the kind of conditionality that Neil

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Speaker 5: talked about that comes with World Bank or IMF loans.

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Speaker 2: Stick with us, Neil and Peter. When we come back,

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Speaker 2: we'll look at what China's new offer could be and

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Speaker 2: why that could store up more trouble for the future. Potentially,

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Speaker 2: we'll be right back.

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Speaker 6: And welcome back.

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Speaker 2: Today we're discussing China's relationship with Africa as it hosts

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Speaker 2: its ninth Forum on China African Cooperation this week. We

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Speaker 2: have Neil Munchi and Peter Martin joining us. So, guys,

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Speaker 2: maybe you can outline what China's new focus is likely

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Speaker 2: to look like and whether or not we'll get any

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Speaker 2: of that indication this week at the summit.

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Speaker 6: So you can see it taking shape already, and it's

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Speaker 6: clear that China shifting away from the kind of plain

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Speaker 6: vanilla sovereign to sovereign landing that characterized the Belton Road

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Speaker 6: initiative toward more commercially driven landing, so away from their

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Speaker 6: policy banks toward their commercial banks and what that means

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Speaker 6: is and one analyst refers to China is acting more

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Speaker 6: like a yield maximizing investment portfolio manager. They are seeking

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Speaker 6: projects that can generate or return.

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Speaker 2: Is there still, Peter a political element to what China

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Speaker 2: potentially wants in return?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, there absolutely is. So we talked before about Chinese

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Speaker 5: companies desire to make profit and to secure critical minerals resources,

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Speaker 5: which of course have uses for its domestic economy but

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Speaker 5: also military uses. But it's more than that. It's also

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Speaker 5: a desire to make sure that African countries are as

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Speaker 5: far as possible on Beijing sides, or at least neutral

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Speaker 5: on issues that really cares about in the international arena.

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Speaker 5: So as it looks, for example, to rebut US criticisms

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Speaker 5: of its human rights records at the United Nations, Beijing

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Speaker 5: looks at the fifty plus countries, the fifty plus votes

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Speaker 5: that Africa can deliver at the UN as something that's

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Speaker 5: very valuable.

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Speaker 2: And I wonder too, based on both of your reporting,

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Speaker 2: when you talk to people about this new lending structure,

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Speaker 2: this new approach by China to African countries, is there

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Speaker 2: concern potentially about future problems that can come up, both

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Speaker 2: on the political front but also economically.

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Speaker 6: There is a debate about this, right There are those

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Speaker 6: who say that this more commercially focused lending allows African

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Speaker 6: governments to take out loans when they shouldn't. Essentially, many

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Speaker 6: countries are in debt distress, a couple have defaulted, and

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Speaker 6: this is a way for those governments to still take

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Speaker 6: on some debt, but it doesn't go on the books.

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Speaker 6: And there are others who say, well, this kind of

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Speaker 6: lending public private partnerships have been around for decades. It's

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Speaker 6: a very standard, creative way of building infrastructure and generating

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Speaker 6: revenue in developing countries. It's not totally clear yet how

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Speaker 6: this will shake out.

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Speaker 2: And so then what could ultimately be the future of

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Speaker 2: this relationship. I mean, is it too early to say

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Speaker 2: what it looks like? And I wonder too. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you both were mentioning the US, Europe some of the

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Speaker 2: other big players that are watching closely. Does this ultimately

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Speaker 2: then affect those relationships with the African countries and those

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Speaker 2: Western nations.

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Speaker 5: Well, you know, I think it's interesting if you talk

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Speaker 5: to Chinese officials about this. There's a short term recalibration

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Speaker 5: that's going on from Beijing here, but their aspirations for

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Speaker 5: engaging with Africa long term, decades long. This is about

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Speaker 5: making sure that Beijing establishes itself is the kind of

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Speaker 5: power it wants to be on the globe, that it has,

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Speaker 5: the trading partners, the natural resources, the military and political

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Speaker 5: influence that it needs. And so this is not going away.

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Speaker 5: And US officials recognize that. You've seen an unprecedented number

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Speaker 5: of high level official visits from US officials to Africa

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Speaker 5: during the Biden administration, and you've seen projects like the

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Speaker 5: Libita Corridor, which is a rail project in Angola with

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Speaker 5: some of its neighboring countries that aims to compete in

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Speaker 5: some ways with Chinese investment. And that's something that really

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Speaker 5: you didn't see in the past. And US officials when

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Speaker 5: they speak to you in private, pretty frank that it's

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Speaker 5: that design to compete with China that's driven this approach.

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Speaker 6: The US is very much playing catshup here and stuff

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Speaker 6: like Libido is These are important projects, but they're kind

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Speaker 6: of one offs, right, whereas the Chinese approach has been

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Speaker 6: and continues to be whole continent. Right. They are engaging

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Speaker 6: across the continent in real ways, and if you talk

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Speaker 6: to African leaders, it's still clear that the US treats

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Speaker 6: Africa as a strategic backventure right they have other strategic

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Speaker 6: geopolitical priorities that are far beyond the continent.

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Speaker 2: Well, thank you both, Neil Munschi and Peter Martin. Thank

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Speaker 2: you both for your reporting and for joining us this

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Speaker 2: week on the podcast. And you can read all the

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Speaker 2: latest coverage on the summit on Bloomberg News platforms. So clearly,

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Speaker 2: as we were just speaking with Neil and Peter about this,

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Speaker 2: partnership between China and Africa does date back decades, but

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Speaker 2: the world and the superpowers of today looks much different

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Speaker 2: from the past. The outcome of the summit will potentially

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Speaker 2: give us a clue into what the future relationship between

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Speaker 2: these regions could look like and also how it could

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Speaker 2: impact not only those involved, but those watching from around

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Speaker 2: the world. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't

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Speaker 2: forget to follow and review the show wherever you usually

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja. Thanks as always for listening.