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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The Crown

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Speaker 1: is yours. Happy Thursday. NFL Week sixteen has arrived. I'm

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Speaker 1: Brandon Kravitz, joined by an insightful and delightful duo, the

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky is back on the podcast,

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Speaker 1: and the Queen herself, Miss Kendrim Middleton. On today's episode,

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Speaker 1: we will submit our official plays of the week. We've

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Speaker 1: got our stat of the day courtesy of Evan Abrams.

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Speaker 2: We'll kick that to you in just a moment.

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Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen parlay courtesy of Draft Kings,

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Speaker 1: and we have planted our flags already the Browns plus ten,

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks tonight, and Matt Moore, who slid in for

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Speaker 1: Stucky on Tuesday's episode, was on the Broncos minus three,

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Speaker 1: went apo on our Jacksonville Jaguars. But before we to

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Speaker 1: anything of football substance, Stucky, how is the little burrito

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Speaker 1: doing at home?

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Speaker 3: He's doing well, He's cute. Uh, it's hanging in there.

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Speaker 3: They I they said to like, I don't do much.

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Speaker 3: It's like, I mean, he sleeps in the needs and

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Speaker 3: my wife has to do all the work, right, now,

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Speaker 3: and I don't really sleep during football season, so that's

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Speaker 3: not a big adjustment. So yeah, they say that this morning.

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Speaker 3: He watched some bowl games with me last night, had

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Speaker 3: him on the couch locked up. They say to read

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Speaker 3: to them just like they're not going to register anything,

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Speaker 3: but like for your voice. And so I was reading

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Speaker 3: the book. I a recent book I got on the

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Speaker 3: history of the Venezuela. So he was learning about the

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Speaker 3: history of Venezuela this morning. So, uh, yeah, he was.

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Speaker 3: I was reading to him about Boulevar and uh, you.

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Speaker 1: Didn't want to roll with it's a good spider all

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Speaker 1: of the classics.

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Speaker 3: No, I mean we have we have all those, but

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Speaker 3: I'll read them to him when like he can actually, ah,

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Speaker 3: like registering, it's more about like your voice, and so

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Speaker 3: I might as well read something that I want to read.

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Speaker 3: So maybe he'll end up getting into history. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's it's uh, it's not much different for me right now,

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Speaker 3: but it will be right now. They're they're pretty easy.

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Speaker 4: Was it like a holy ship moment when you held them?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was funny. He was born at one one

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Speaker 3: oh one Eastern on Sunday, And I guess you wanted

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Speaker 3: to catch the NFL slate and then they brought me

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Speaker 3: up to the.

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Speaker 1: Nurse right when the octobox gets shown on Red Zone too.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was an emergency c section, so they brought

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Speaker 3: me up to the nursery after and then they had

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Speaker 3: to like still operate on my wife for a while. Well,

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Speaker 3: but they because it was a C section, they have

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Speaker 3: to like help them to breathe and clean them off.

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Speaker 3: So like I was just standing there while a bunch

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Speaker 3: of uh nurses and doctors were tending to them for

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Speaker 3: like an hour. So I was just sitting in the

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Speaker 3: nursery just but I wore like a winter I had

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Speaker 3: to scrolls. It had a winter hat on and and

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Speaker 3: then I had like headphones underneath and I just had

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Speaker 3: Red Zone playing in my pocket. So while I was

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Speaker 3: in the so yeah, I and then I was able

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Speaker 3: to go back. We went back to recovery room, and

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Speaker 3: then I was able to watch the Bills make a

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Speaker 3: crazy comeback, which was nice. So yeah, it was it

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Speaker 3: was a pretty crazy when we were in the hospital yesterday,

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Speaker 3: so that was kind of So that was from we

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Speaker 3: got went there at Saturday night and then he wasn't

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Speaker 3: born until Sunday at one, and then we got home

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Speaker 3: Wednesday afternoon, so we were there for it kind of

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Speaker 3: felt like a camp, like we were at camp. But

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Speaker 3: I was sleeping on like a cot whenever I did sleep.

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Speaker 3: That wasn't great. But yeah, it's big lu change, but

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Speaker 3: I'm excited. It'll get harder once he's able to move

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Speaker 3: around and stuff.

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Speaker 4: But around and recavoc.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's gonna be the where everything changes. But

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Speaker 3: for now, status quo. We're on to week sixteen. A

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Speaker 3: lot of this this week. I'm actually really excited for

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Speaker 3: this week because you look at this week's hard, it's

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Speaker 3: you know, you have a lot of bad there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of bad quarterbacks the NFL regardless. But there's like

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Speaker 3: I think seven or eight rookies starting, like you have

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Speaker 3: Quinn yours now Brady Cook, So there's there's some I

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Speaker 3: think there's like seven ary rookies that are siding to do.

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Speaker 3: But this is like when the games matter for playoffs,

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Speaker 3: and we have ram Seahawks tonight, Packers, Bears Saturday Night,

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Speaker 3: Ravens Pats Monday Night. We get forty four year old

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Speaker 3: Philip Rivers on Monday Night against the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, there's a lot of good games. Jags, Broncos

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Speaker 3: are Jags. There's some good games on the slate that

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Speaker 3: I'm looking forward to, but there's also some just like, Wow,

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Speaker 3: this is the state of our quarterback play right now. But

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Speaker 3: I'm excited for it, and I'm excited for the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Either a great thing or a scary thing. There are

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Speaker 1: a lot of games I like, and from a betting

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Speaker 1: perspective on this week's card, let's talk about one of

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Speaker 1: the ones you just mentioned. The Jags and the Broncos,

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Speaker 1: a matchup of ten and a twelve win team that

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Speaker 1: will not be seen by anybody but local markets. By

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Speaker 1: the way, no national broadcast keep doubting our Jaguars. Bnick's

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Speaker 1: coming off the best performance of the season him four touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: no interceptions, through for three to Zho two, took zero sacks.

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Speaker 1: The Jags, meanwhile, twenty five plus and seven straight games.

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Speaker 1: They're the only team in the NFL to be able

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Speaker 1: to be able to say that, and this trend screams Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: This is our Evan Abrams stat of the day. Since

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety, teams on an eleven plus game win streak

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Speaker 1: have been inflated and have struggled to cover fourteen and

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Speaker 1: thirty six and two against the spread. That's twenty eight percent.

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Speaker 1: To me, it's Jags or pass. I have not bet

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Speaker 1: the game yet. Broncos favored by three. I have Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: rated slightly higher, and I think part of that is

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Speaker 1: their strength of schedule denverse twenty eighth.

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Speaker 2: The Jags are twelfth.

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Speaker 1: And on top of that, Nick Giffin has the Broncos

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Speaker 1: number one in the luck rankings, Jags top ten. They're

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Speaker 1: number nine, but a percentage diff of nineteen percent. To me,

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Speaker 1: it's Jacksonville or nothing stuck yet? Do you read this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be on the Jags. Wait and see if

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Speaker 3: I can get a three and a half, even if

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Speaker 3: I have to play like one, fifteen, one twenty for it.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that I have this under a field goal.

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Speaker 3: And you might say Nicks played his best game of

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Speaker 3: the season last week. I mean it was another lucky

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Speaker 3: Broncos when he had four turnover worthy plays. The Packers

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Speaker 3: dropped hens Uh dropped like three picks in that game. Additionally,

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Speaker 3: they lost Evan Williams, Michael Parsons, Christian Watson their right tack.

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Speaker 3: I mean they lost six starters during the game to injury.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, this Broncos team is just keeps getting away

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Speaker 3: with it every week. Not a believer. I think their

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Speaker 3: defense is good, but it's not like the Texans. I

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Speaker 3: think their defense is even a bit overrated. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'll be on the Jags. I mean the Jags defense

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Speaker 3: since Week eight, fourth and EPA per play, they've been

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Speaker 3: a top five run defense all season. That's important against Denver.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna play a lot of zone. Nicks is gonna

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Speaker 3: put the ball in Harm's way. Jags have been very

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Speaker 3: opportunistic on defense. And then I think the story of

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Speaker 3: the Jags this season, and one of the reasons why

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Speaker 3: I was in buying into them before the season was

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Speaker 3: Liam Cohen. Wherever he goes, the offense improves. Was expecting

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Speaker 3: the offense to improve as the season went on. It's

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Speaker 3: been even better than I thought. I mean since they

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Speaker 3: acquired Jacoby Myers, third in dropback success rate, sixth in

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Speaker 3: dropback EPA. Jacoby Myers has been amazing for them. They've

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Speaker 3: also gotten Brenton Strange back. The run game's been cooking

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Speaker 3: all season. So yeah, I uh, I'll be on. It'll

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Speaker 3: probably be another close Broncos game. I would love to

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Speaker 3: get a three and a half with the Jags.

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Speaker 1: Josh Heinz Allen popped up on the injury report. He's

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Speaker 1: dealing with an illness. He didn't practice on Wednesday. Wednesday's

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Speaker 1: a pretty standard day for stars not to practice. Old

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Speaker 1: and freak out about that. We'll just keep an eye

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Speaker 1: on that. Kendra, you are a resident Jags fan. We

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Speaker 1: have just simply hopped on the bandwagon. Do you have

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Speaker 1: confidence in your team going up against a Broncos team

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Speaker 1: that is undefeated at home this year?

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Speaker 4: I'm on the Jags. We are a Jags podcast. I've

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Speaker 4: already put it in the app. I'm a little concerned

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Speaker 4: that Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland are both on the

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Speaker 4: injury report on that left side. That doesn't make me

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Speaker 4: feel great against a Broncos defense this. I would like

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Speaker 4: to add that I think the Jags are averageating in

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Speaker 4: the last six games like thirty three or thirty four

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Speaker 4: points a game, which is also just insane of as

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Speaker 4: a Jags fan who grew up hating this team but

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Speaker 4: also loving this team. That's an insane stat to say

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Speaker 4: out loud. The thing for me here isn't so much

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Speaker 4: that I'm super high on this Jags team, which you

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Speaker 4: guys know, I've had my ups and downs. I've been

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Speaker 4: in and out. Basil Tuton being on the injury report

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Speaker 4: as doubtful also doesn't really scare me that much, just because,

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Speaker 4: like wwent, Allen has been incredible on special teams and

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Speaker 4: I think that he can make up for the position

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Speaker 4: on that in the run game that Basil Tuton has

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Speaker 4: for the Jags, it's more so a fad of the

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Speaker 4: Broncos here for me, it is impossible to go on

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Speaker 4: such a wind streak like they have and not stumble

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Speaker 4: at some point, especially because like Stucky said, they will

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Speaker 4: absolutely Bonick will put the ball in Harm's way and

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Speaker 4: this Jags team will will, will will take advantage of

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Speaker 4: those opportunities. MAYA Spider Lloyd named after Devin Lloyd just

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Speaker 4: decided to molt on Sunday. So I'm thinking even Devin

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Speaker 4: Lloyd pick in this game. I think that that's what

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Speaker 4: that means.

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Speaker 1: The Jags catching fifty eight percent of the bets right

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Speaker 1: now and.

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Speaker 3: Dag one seed. Still they win this game.

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Speaker 2: Still alive, that's true.

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Speaker 3: Still very much alive. That have the time breaker.

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Speaker 2: Do you have the odds.

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Speaker 1: Are there odds on that that are available, I would

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Speaker 1: think they're pretty good.

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Speaker 3: They have to win this week. I mean, if they

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Speaker 3: lose this week, it's done. But if they have to

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Speaker 3: win this week and then they have what the the

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Speaker 3: Colts and the Titans.

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Speaker 4: Left, Broncos are a game and a half up, and then.

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Speaker 3: They need the the Broncos to lose two the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: Pats to lose this week to the.

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Speaker 4: Ravens and have Chiefs on Christmas.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but I mean, what is the Chiefs. The most

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Speaker 3: likely loss for the Broncos is going to be the

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Speaker 3: Chargers at home in the finale.

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Speaker 4: I don't know. I kind of I get that the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs suck. They have nothing to play for and we're

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Speaker 4: getting Gardner Minshew, but still divisional something to get up

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Speaker 4: for for some of those guys.

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Speaker 3: I don't know it is, but I don't even know

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Speaker 3: who's gonna play Like the Chiefs are they just gonna

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Speaker 3: sit guys because there's nothing to play. They have so

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Speaker 3: many injuries that that's that's my main concern. Then obviously

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Speaker 3: the drop off from Mahomes to Minshew. But yeah, if

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Speaker 3: the Jags win, So if the Jags win this week

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Speaker 3: against Denver. We'll say the Ravens beat the Pats, and

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Speaker 3: then next week the Pats are probably gonna win out.

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Speaker 3: After that they play the Jets and the Dolphins. But

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Speaker 3: if the Broncos, let's see, the Jags have the tiebreaker,

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Speaker 3: So if the Jags went out, this would be one

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Speaker 3: more second. This is riveting, riveting podcasting.

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Speaker 1: We did get a number I'll buy I'll buy you

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Speaker 1: some time here stock the Jags seven to one to

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Speaker 1: be the number one seed in the AFC. I don't

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Speaker 1: know how that math's out with all of these different

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Speaker 1: machinations that we need, but I don't like that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's all that would have to happen. So that's

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Speaker 3: what would have to happen. Jags, we get the one seed,

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Speaker 3: be a three way tie for at thirteen and four

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Speaker 3: with the Jags, Broncos, and Pats all at thirteen and four,

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Speaker 3: and if that were to happen, so what we needs

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Speaker 3: to happen. They got to win out, including win over Denver.

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Speaker 3: Denver loses to the Chargers in the finale, Pats lose

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Speaker 3: to the Ravens, and even if the Pats went out

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Speaker 3: after that, the Jags would have the tiebreaker all at

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Speaker 3: thirteen and four and get the number one overall seed.

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Speaker 3: The Bills could also finish thirteen and four, so there

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Speaker 3: could be a a four way tie at the top,

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Speaker 3: but the Pats would win the division and the Jags

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Speaker 3: would get the one seed.

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Speaker 4: Anything to avoid going to Houston for the playoffs. In on,

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Speaker 4: I will chase it. I want the Chargers at home.

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Speaker 2: Every wants those Texans. Nobody wants them.

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Speaker 1: By the way, if you want to a much more

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Speaker 1: simple version where you don't have to wait until things

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Speaker 1: play out in week seventeen and beyond. Jags money line

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Speaker 1: Ravens money line for week sixteen is plus two eighty one,

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Speaker 1: so not exactly the seven to one, but if you

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Speaker 1: just thought that maybe things were going to tilt in

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Speaker 1: that direction, that could be a way to look.

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Speaker 3: Now another could we could also have five teams that

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Speaker 3: finish thirteen and four in the AFC. So if the

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Speaker 3: Chargers went out and in that case and then said

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Speaker 3: Denver loses to the Jags and they lose to the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: the Chargers would have the two seed and win the division.

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Speaker 3: The Pats would have the three seed and win the division.

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Speaker 3: The thirteen or four Broncos would have the six seed,

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Speaker 3: the thirteen and four Bills would have the five seed,

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Speaker 3: and the thirteen or four Jags would have the one seed.

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Speaker 3: Pretty wild.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any You just had a child, so

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Speaker 1: perhaps you know you're not ready for this, But do

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Speaker 1: you have anything random, weird, bizarre for us this week?

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Speaker 2: Hey, this is a dumb question.

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Speaker 3: Let me ask you a personal question kind.

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Speaker 2: Of question is that is questions.

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Speaker 3: What if anything, is the weirdest thing that you have

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Speaker 3: stolen in your life that you regret? So I think

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Speaker 3: I can't remember the only thing I can remember that

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Speaker 3: I've ever stolen. I mean, I'm sure I stole something

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Speaker 3: when I was like a kid, right like you grabbed

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Speaker 3: like a candy bar. I don't know, But like, the

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Speaker 3: only thing I remember stealing is and I actually still

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Speaker 3: I actually felt bad about it. The next day was

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Speaker 3: I was It was I was in Hoboken, New Jersey,

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Speaker 3: visiting a friend and we were out all night and

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Speaker 3: it was like three in the morning and we were

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Speaker 3: walking back to his place after the bars, and then

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Speaker 3: there was this huge bread It was like four in

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Speaker 3: the morning. There was this huge bread truck that was

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Speaker 3: delivering bread to like a store and I hopped in

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Speaker 3: and I just grabbed this big crate of rolls. Why

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Speaker 3: would I steal roll So my friend had like rolls

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Speaker 3: for like a year frozen in his freezer. But I

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Speaker 3: felt bad for the bread guy the next day because

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Speaker 3: I don't know who would have to to cover that,

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Speaker 3: But I did. I have stolen rolls in my life

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Speaker 3: and then didn't use any of them. I left the

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Speaker 3: next day. So that's the only thing I think of it.

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Speaker 3: And it's a poot two part question. When you were

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Speaker 3: a kid, what was your if there was like an

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Speaker 3: ice cream truck or if you didn't have an ice

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Speaker 3: cream truck. Did you guys have an ice cream truck

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Speaker 3: that will come around?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: What was your order? Mine for mine for that was

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Speaker 3: I saw an ice cream truck other day and for

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Speaker 3: some reason, I didn't seen one in forever. I would

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Speaker 3: always you. I would always get the uh that Mickey

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Speaker 3: Mouse bar, that's so hot. I love that, And then

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Speaker 3: I'd always get candy cigs and try to act cool

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Speaker 3: like with the fake cigarettes.

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Speaker 2: I can that.

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Speaker 3: So no ice cream trucks, I don't know. Maybe some

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Speaker 3: people didn't didn't have an ice cream truck that comes around.

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Speaker 3: We don't have an ice creamruf that comes in my

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Speaker 3: neighbor so uh yeah. So Kendra, have you ever stolen anything?

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Speaker 4: And one of them I can't talk about on the air,

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Speaker 4: but I will tell you guys off the air because

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Speaker 4: it is so illegal. It's actually an issue, and I

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Speaker 4: was so young and I did not realize anything at

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Speaker 4: the time. The only other thing that I've stolen is

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Speaker 4: I accidentally walked out of the grocery store with a

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Speaker 4: thing at toilet paper under my cart once and that

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Speaker 4: still haunts me to this day that I feel bad about.

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Speaker 4: My ice cream truck order was I think it's called

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Speaker 4: a screwball. It's like the like slush and then it

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Speaker 4: had the gumball at the bottom. Oh yeah, yeah, I

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Speaker 4: like that one.

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Speaker 1: My ice cream order was always the WWF ice cream bar,

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Speaker 1: so you know, and then you would open it and

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Speaker 1: he could have like the hul Cogan or the Big

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Speaker 1: boss Man. You know, you never knew who his image

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Speaker 1: was going to be drawn on the ice cream bar.

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Speaker 1: But the ice cream itself was really good too. It

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Speaker 1: was like a gram cracker crust with vanilla on the inside.

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Speaker 1: And then the second you said the thing that you stole.

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Speaker 1: I had this instant memory. Thirteen years old, I'm at

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Speaker 1: Dillard's with my friend Steven. I'm at yeah and uh,

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Speaker 1: and for some reason, he wanted to start stealing Tommy

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Speaker 1: Hill figure tags off of the Tommy Hill And they're

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Speaker 1: just like little cardboard.

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Speaker 2: Things that hang on the shirts.

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Speaker 1: And so we took a bunch of those, and then

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Speaker 1: we decided that we were doing so well with this,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna up our game.

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Speaker 2: Do you remember those flotation devices.

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Speaker 1: On the Nautica jackets back in the day, So these

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Speaker 1: I'm putting this picture up, these little things.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so we started taking those.

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Speaker 1: At that point, Dillard's had enough and we got sent

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Speaker 1: to the security office at Dillard's and they told me

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Speaker 1: that they had my parents come and pick me up.

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Speaker 1: And I wasn't allowed back at Dillard's until I was

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Speaker 1: sixteen years old and so and I don't there's no

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Speaker 1: way they still I was thirteen, fourteen, fifteen years old

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Speaker 1: that my picture was hanging up at Dillard's in South Florida,

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Speaker 1: and I will do with them. I just just kept

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Speaker 1: them just it just became like a game, like we

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Speaker 1: could get more of them.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, it was really stupid. I was thirteen

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Speaker 2: years old, but.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, actually, like a Dillard's, I actually got arrested for

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Speaker 3: stealing something.

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Speaker 4: It was arrested.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. So I was sixteen and I was down at

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Speaker 3: my friend's senior week house.

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Speaker 2: And he's smoking candy cigarettes.

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Speaker 3: And they were at their senior week house. They were

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Speaker 3: out of toilet paper, and I went to the to

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Speaker 3: the boardwalk that this is down to the Jersey Shore.

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Speaker 3: I went to the boardwalk with my friend and we

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Speaker 3: took toilet paper out of a bathroom. One of the workers,

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Speaker 3: I guess, saw us walking out with it and they

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Speaker 3: waved down a cop, and a cop chased this down

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Speaker 3: and I got arrested for underage drinking because I was

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Speaker 3: drunk when he stopped me. And I was sixteen, so

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Speaker 3: technically that's taking toilet paper. I was just trying to

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Speaker 3: be nice because they were out of toilet paper at

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Speaker 3: their house. I was there for a night. I was

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Speaker 3: like a freshman. They were at their senior week house.

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Speaker 3: My dad had to come get drive at three in

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Speaker 3: the morning and come get me two hours away and

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Speaker 3: drive me back. He was not happy. So, yeah, you.

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Speaker 4: Were You were the leader of degenerate nation from a

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Speaker 4: young age my friend.

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Speaker 3: So, yeah, that's a toilet paper rolls. I guess I

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Speaker 3: have a thing for stealing rolls. I guess that's the

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Speaker 3: common theme, and I did use any of them.

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Speaker 2: These are everyday household items.

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Speaker 1: You know, at least you were stealing things of value

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Speaker 1: and not flotation devices.

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Speaker 2: Uh, let's get to action or distraction.

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Speaker 3: This is a distracted stactic. I'm not stacky.

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Speaker 4: I want it on. The action.

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Speaker 1: Too was benched by Mike McDaniel insides Quinn yours, and

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Speaker 1: we saw the line shift a few points in the process.

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Speaker 1: I'll give my take on this later because it is

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Speaker 1: one of my nominations. But Kendra, action or distraction on

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Speaker 1: the line movement, given how bad Tua has.

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Speaker 4: Been, I want nothing to do with the Dolphins right

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Speaker 4: now at all.

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Speaker 2: Nothing.

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Speaker 4: Don't even know. I don't Here's the thing. If Quinn

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Speaker 4: you weres is starting before Zach Wilson and Tua is

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Speaker 4: now behind those two, that points to no go nothing.

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Speaker 2: I know.

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Speaker 4: I will say, I do think that this is gonna

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Speaker 4: weirdly teach us a lot about the Tua scenario, just

395
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Speaker 4: because I don't think we've seen with the Dolphins. Mike

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Speaker 4: McDaniel run an offense that's not based around to his ability,

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Speaker 4: and I think that that's going to be like a

398
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Speaker 4: huge thing of whether we might see I don't think

399
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Speaker 4: that the Dolphins are going to be able to get

400
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Speaker 4: rid of his contract at all, just because of how

401
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Speaker 4: much money they owe him, his injury history and his capabilities.

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Speaker 4: I think they're going to be stuck, you know, with

403
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Speaker 4: the Kirk Cousins situation. But we're going to learn a

404
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Speaker 4: lot about how tailored this offense was to him, and

405
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Speaker 4: I think that that's probably going to affect the to

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Speaker 4: a market in a way.

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Speaker 1: If you are a quarterback needy team, would you take

408
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Speaker 1: a shot on Tua.

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Speaker 4: No, absolutely not, because his injury history is enough for

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Speaker 4: me to stay away at that price. Absolutely not.

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Speaker 3: I would. I mean it depends on yeah, I mean

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Speaker 3: his price in the market. But I think the two

413
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Speaker 3: it can be like a really solid Mariota, like just

414
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Speaker 3: the the best backup.

415
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Speaker 4: In the league right for that price.

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Speaker 1: Well, obviously that's when you wouldn't pay The Dolphins have

417
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Speaker 1: to eat that price.

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Speaker 4: The Dolphins have to eat that So whn't at that

419
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Speaker 4: point they just cut him because then they can spread

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Speaker 4: that money out over two seasons. If that's how it's

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Speaker 4: gonna go.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but I'm saying for a new team, like it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be like Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 1: Like Wilson was let go by Denver. Denver had to

425
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Speaker 1: eat the money and then everyone signed a million dollar

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Speaker 1: contract with Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if they caught him before June first, it's gonna

428
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Speaker 3: cost them ninety nine million in dead money, which is insane.

429
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Speaker 3: The record is that the Broncos with eighty five million

430
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Speaker 3: for Russell Wilson, which is pretty amazing what the Broncos

431
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Speaker 3: are doing right now considering how far back that would

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Speaker 3: have set a lot of teams. I mean, look at

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Speaker 3: the Browns with Watson. But yeah, I mean I think

434
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Speaker 3: too it is probably and that with his injury history,

435
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 3: that's gonna work best for him, would probably work best.

436
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Speaker 3: Is just like a backup to a good team.

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Speaker 2: That so.

438
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 3: But as far as the blind movement, yeah, I mean

439
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 3: I agree with that. It it was two, it was

440
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 3: one and a half two two and a half. I

441
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 3: think it was one and a half. It leaked out

442
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 3: to two and a half when there was when when

443
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 3: McDaniel said all options are on the table, and then

444
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 3: it jumped out to four and a half after the announcement,

445
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 3: I think it's settled. He's that up four now or

446
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 3: last I saw. I think that makes sense. You gotta

447
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 3: remember that also, not all line moves are created equal.

448
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 3: This is going through three, so you know, something going

449
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 3: from like a pick to minus two is not as

450
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 3: impactful as something going from you know, one and a

451
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 3: half two out to four through the through three, which

452
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 3: is the biggest key number in football. So yeah, I

453
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 3: think that it's it's warranted. You just don't know, Like

454
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 3: two hasn't been great. The Dolphins have been relying on

455
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 3: their run game. They just haven't been asking to it

456
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 3: to do much, and their run defense has been incredible.

457
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 3: Uh and but their their secondary is still vulnerable, which

458
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,439
Speaker 3: is what I would worry about against Burrow. And but

459
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 3: as far as the drop off, you just don't know

460
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 3: what yours is going to look like. This isn't a

461
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 3: high draft pick. He's a rookie, it's his first start,

462
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 3: and I know the Bengals aren't a great defense, but

463
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 3: you have to expect that it's going to be a

464
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 3: couple of points worse than two, even though he hasn't

465
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 3: been great. So yeah, I agree, with the move at

466
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 3: this price, Like Kendra, I have no interest in betting

467
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 3: this game. We think after the Bengals were eliminated, like

468
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 3: where are they at? Mentally, Dolphins were eliminated like just

469
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 3: a game that's I don't want to see any fun.

470
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 2: We have a squad ride tonight.

471
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: If you look on the Action Network app, I'm on

472
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, Kendra's on the Seahawks. Stuck, He's on the Seahawks.

473
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: And we didn't even discuss it as a unit. We'd

474
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: all just sort of wound up there. Action or distraction

475
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 1: for this is a great or bed sign for us

476
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: and the Birds.

477
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 3: Stucky a great son. We've been good this year, so

478
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 3: we're about to hit our two kings and Queen parlay later.

479
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 3: But yeah, the energy I played. The Seahawks are early

480
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 3: cheap money line, like, I think that they've taken some

481
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 3: money since and I think the line is getting close

482
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 3: to right. But the biggest thing for me is the

483
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 3: loss of Devanta Adams makes the Rams so much easier

484
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 3: to defend. They've been relying on a lot of heavy personnel,

485
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 3: and no team in the NFL is better equipped to

486
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 3: defend heavy personnel than the Seahawks. So what a lot

487
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 3: of teams do by mistake is they match heavy personnel,

488
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 3: so multiple tight ends with either their base defense or

489
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: heavy defense, which means a lot more linebackers on the field.

490
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 3: That's a mistake because what do the Rams do out

491
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 3: of that? They throw out of heavy personnel and they

492
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 3: do it extremely well and if you have more linebackers

493
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 3: on the field. The Lions did this last week. They

494
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 3: matched the Rams heavy personnel with base and heavy. Every

495
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 3: single snap they got destroyed, absolutely destroyed the Seahawks they met.

496
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 3: They match heavy personnel with you know, they're with not

497
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 3: not based, not heavy, They're gonna you know, nickel dime you.

498
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 3: They match based on the down and distance, which is

499
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 3: what you should do. And part of that is they

500
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 3: have Nick emn Warre who can play you know, linebacker

501
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 3: if you run, or defensive back, and they have a

502
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 3: lot of versatile guys and McDonald's a very smart defensive coordinator.

503
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 3: They match you know, heavy personnel with bass or heavy

504
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 3: at the lowest rate in elitue. They are tail They

505
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 3: have a tailor made defense to defend the Rams, especially

506
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: without DeVonta Adams. And it's one of the reasons in

507
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 3: the first meeting, Stafford had his worst game of the

508
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 3: season by far. Think about this. Donald threw four picks

509
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,479
Speaker 3: on the road. The Seahawks had a field goal attempt

510
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 3: to win the game, and I mean at Stafford, I

511
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 3: think at twenty eight pass attempt for one hundred and

512
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 3: thirty yards if I recall correctly, he was not good.

513
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 3: And now there's no Adams Seahawks at home. And I

514
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 3: know that Donald has struggled against this defense in the past,

515
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 3: but I feel like they figured some things down in

516
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 3: the second half against Atlanta similarly structured defense scheme, and

517
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 3: he's at home this time around. So yeah, and the

518
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 3: loss of Adams is big in the red zone, just

519
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 3: as that man beater so too.

520
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 2: He's essentially their goal line back.

521
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 1: If you look at how often they've thrown him the

522
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 1: ball in the one yard line, it's it's beyond him.

523
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 3: I mean, they go, they'll go. They're thirteen personnel inside

524
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 3: the ten is like a cheat code, and they'll they

525
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 3: have Stafford will just look at what the linebacker safety

526
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 3: is doing over the tight end, and they'll have Adams

527
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 3: split out and if based on what he does, he's

528
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 3: throwing it. If there's a one on one if this

529
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 3: safety or linebacker comes up, or files a tight ender

530
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 3: comes up to play the run. I mean it's just

531
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 3: one on one to Adams. No one's covering him, So

532
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 3: without that you can focus more attention on Nicoole. But

533
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 3: I just like this matchup for the Seattle defense. So yeah,

534
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 3: I think the Seahawks get it done.

535
00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 5: To home.

536
00:28:58,120 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 3: Should be a good game, should be ugly, and there's

537
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 3: gonna be wins, rain totals come down. But I think

538
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 3: the Seahawks get it done. But these are these are

539
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 3: the two best teams against the spread in the NFL.

540
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 3: I think it'll be a good one looking.

541
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: Forward to Should we be concerned that we have a

542
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: turnover prone Sam Darnold in the rain.

543
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 2: That's that's my only real ye here with this game.

544
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 4: I was going to say, three fields a little bit

545
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,959
Speaker 4: like a crowd in this instance for me personally, I

546
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 4: got in on this game on Sunday for the same

547
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,239
Speaker 4: reason that's Dock you mentioned. I was trying to get

548
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 4: ahead of the number before Adams and potentially Nakua, who

549
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 4: was having a bad week in the press. I might

550
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 4: add additionally, it's for like what I think when I

551
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 4: think about this game. I sit here and I think, one,

552
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 4: it's hard to beat a divisional opponent twice in one season.

553
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 4: I like the idea that that's probably leaning towards the split.

554
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 4: I liked it they're at home. And what really pushed

555
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 4: me to get to the window on this is that

556
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 4: they look. Yes, they won, and it's hard to sit

557
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 4: here and say it's a bounce back game after a win,

558
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 4: but they looked like shit against a Philip Rivers led

559
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 4: Colts team. They almost lost to a forty four year

560
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 4: old grandfather. If they don't come out guns of blazon

561
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 4: in this game, I'm going to fade the Seahawks for

562
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 4: the rest of the season. If they don't come out

563
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 4: genuinely looking like a Super Bowl contender against a Super

564
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 4: Bowl contender, it's done. They're dead. To me. I'm fading

565
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 4: Sam Darnold the rest of the freaking season.

566
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: It was almost like a college look ahead spot with

567
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 1: the way that they played so sleepy against the Indianapolis Colts.

568
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: Still to come.

569
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen get nominated in our weekly Parlay.

570
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,960
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571
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572
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574
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580
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581
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 1: Alrighty time to talk Monday Night Football and our friends

582
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,880
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583
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,400
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584
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586
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587
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588
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:30,960
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589
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:31,959
Speaker 1: night football preview.

590
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 2: Let's look at forty nine Ers Colts.

591
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: The Colts catching six and a half at home San

592
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: Francisco ten and four record might be a little bit overblown.

593
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: I think the team is good, but their strength of

594
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: victory thirty six percent. Among the good teams in the NFC,

595
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 1: only the Bears have a lower strength of victory than

596
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine ers.

597
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 2: But here's the thing.

598
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 1: Their opponent this coming Monday night, I think gets filed

599
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: under easy competition when you're taking on in a mobile

600
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 1: old quarterback in Philip Rivers, who just in some aspects,

601
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: had the game of his life that he was able

602
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 1: to get off the couch or get off of the

603
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: high school coaching ring and play at least some level

604
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 1: of respectable football.

605
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 2: So I can only look at the forty nine ers.

606
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 1: But more than anything else, I'm just gonna go back

607
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: to the well with what I bet last week in

608
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: the return of Philip Rivers. I'm gonna go with Rivers

609
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 1: under half a rushing yard minus one eighty five. The

610
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 1: guy can't move. This is It's like a free bet.

611
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna I'm gonna look in that direction. Kendro,

612
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:43,479
Speaker 1: what about you?

613
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 4: I feel like I have to ask Stucky the Philip

614
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 4: Rivers or Featherweight question from Tuesday show. I'm all over

615
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers here. I think it's time to

616
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 4: absolutely fade the Colts and anything up to a touchdown

617
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 4: works for me.

618
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 3: We had a lot of agreement on this. I actually

619
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 3: disagree with Kendra on that, but I played, I played

620
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,239
Speaker 3: the Colts. I think the line's too high. I mean,

621
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers were the LAS three weeks. Wh

622
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 3: would they beat like the Browns in the dead even game?

623
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 3: Statistically the Titans. Both teams were able to run on

624
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, but the fort Niners defense is

625
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 3: so bad like they Jonathan Taylor, I think he's gonna

626
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 3: run wild here, and I mean I think since week seven,

627
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 3: the forty Niners are thirty first in rushed success rate allowed.

628
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 3: And I think, look, Rivers, I think you can expect

629
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 3: better from him this week. You're playing a defense that

630
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 3: is poverty levels when it comes to getting pressure. They

631
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 3: can't defend the run. Last week, he's on the road.

632
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 3: His first game in five he was playing the Seattle defense,

633
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 3: which is one of the three best in the NFL

634
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 3: that can get pressure without blitzing. Now he's playing defense.

635
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 3: I can't get any pressure whatsoever. Me Dnk he can

636
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 3: dink and dunk, feed Taylor and I think the fort

637
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 3: nineers at the peak of the market value. They're playing

638
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 3: a bunch of bad teams in a row with a

639
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 3: ton of injuries as well. But I'm gonna go with

640
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 3: I think Taylor gets gets fed and he has a

641
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 3: big so I'm gonna go tailor longest rush over seventeen

642
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 3: and a half yards. I think he breaks a couple here.

643
00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 1: Did you get your wife pregnant nine months before bowl

644
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 1: season and the end of the regular season and you

645
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 1: need some instant access to live TV, perhaps from the

646
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:17,439
Speaker 1: hospital room.

647
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,480
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648
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,279
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649
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,279
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650
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,520
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651
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,600
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653
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654
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,359
Speaker 1: reason you all came here today, the two Kings and

655
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 1: a Queen parlay nominations. We each nominate two and then

656
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 1: we will see what we land on.

657
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 4: Kendra Us started well since stuck. He hates my forty

658
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 4: nine ers pick. I have a feeling that We're gonna

659
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 4: go with my Baltimore option, because those are the two

660
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 4: that I laid out. I just don't know if the

661
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 4: Patriots defense, with all of their injuries, especially because I

662
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 4: don't know if Spallaine is now going to play on Sunday,

663
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 4: they're gonna be able to stop the run. I know

664
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson's out with an illness. He has the immune

665
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 4: system of a Victorian child. It feels like every December

666
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:30,479
Speaker 4: he has some sort of illness or the poop game,

667
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 4: or you know, the wheelchair game, whatever we want to

668
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 4: call it from him. He has Paul Pierce moment against

669
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 4: the Packers a couple of seasons ago. I don't really

670
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 4: care that Lamar Jackson's sick, especially since he missed Wednesday practice.

671
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 4: He's been missing Wednesday practices pretty much the entirety of

672
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 4: the year. Baltimore is just a step up in class

673
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 4: for the Patriots, like Buffalo was last weekend. I get

674
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 4: that the Patriots were leading Buffalo at the half, Buffalo

675
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 4: came back. It's just the ability that the Ravens have

676
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 4: to run the ball, and I don't think the Patriots

677
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 4: are going to have an answer for it, especially with

678
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 4: all the linebacker. You know, injuries that popped up for

679
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,280
Speaker 4: them this week. Robert Spoltan was in a boot yesterday.

680
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 4: It just feels like the Patriots kind of are facing

681
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 4: that bit of a reality check that we all knew

682
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 4: what was coming because of the strength of their schedule.

683
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 4: So I'm going to fade them again this week.

684
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 3: I love this. I played the Ravens two Lamar by

685
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 3: the Way eighteen and eight against the spread of December

686
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 3: has never lost the game weeks fifteen through eighteen per

687
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:33,840
Speaker 3: Evan Abrams is primer, and since we ate after the bye,

688
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 3: Ravens second in rush EPA. Charlie Kohler has been amazing

689
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 3: run blocking. They were twenty second over the first seven weeks.

690
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,280
Speaker 3: Patriots defense since week eight thirtieth in rushed success rate allowed,

691
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 3: thirtieth in RUSHYPA. Milton Williams is hurt. Robert Splane, whos

692
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,799
Speaker 3: their leading tackler, calls the defense is hurt. They got

693
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 3: banged up in the secondary last week. This team which

694
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 3: played nobody and was getting lucky. I mean on the

695
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:59,720
Speaker 3: year there they played the luckiest. They played the easiest

696
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 3: schedule in the league. They've gone fourteen of nineteen on

697
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 3: fourth downs. Their opponents have gone eight of twenty three,

698
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 3: They've had seventeen fumbles, only lost seven, recovered sixty seven

699
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 3: percent of their opponent fumbles, have had games against teams

700
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 3: that just completely imploded on special teams, and they've played

701
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 3: some of the worst quarterbacks that are no longer starters

702
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 3: in the league. I think this line should be over

703
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 3: a field goal. Now you have injuries, I mean Will

704
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 3: Campbell being out of left tackle, Verderon Lowe is unplayable

705
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:31,240
Speaker 3: there and this is just a classic hardball Jackson primetime

706
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 3: spot against an eleven win team. I like the Ravens

707
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 3: get it done, and I think they'll be able to

708
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 3: abuse the Patriots linebackers and safeties with their tight ends

709
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 3: and throwing over the middle of the field. And Lamar

710
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 3: started to look better progressively each and every week. And

711
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 3: the Ravens defense is playing really well. I mean since

712
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,760
Speaker 3: we week six fifth and EPA play fifth and success

713
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 3: rate first against the run. The one thing that Ravens

714
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 3: still are struggling with is their red zone offense. Their

715
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 3: second to worst in the red zone forty four percent

716
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 3: red zone touchdown percentage, way down from last year. Well,

717
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 3: guess whos the worst red zone defense in the NFL.

718
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:09,240
Speaker 3: It's the Patriots, so they might actually see some positive

719
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 3: results inside the twenty. I like the Ravens. I'm sorry, Kenrim,

720
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 3: what we're going to say?

721
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 4: No, no, You're fine. I was going to see Two more

722
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 4: points that I forgot to add here before we get

723
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 4: to Kravitz is one, Drake May does not have the

724
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 4: fourth quarter game winning drive of any sort in his career,

725
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 4: and that's kind of the situation I expect them to

726
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 4: be in this week. And the other thing is I

727
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 4: am going to get these numbers backwards, but I think

728
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 4: eighty one percent of the bets are on at the

729
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 4: Patriots with eighty nine percent of the money, I might

730
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 4: have gotten that back We thought if.

731
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 1: I was staring at that, that was going to be

732
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 1: my follow up. If you are OK, I fade the

733
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 1: public camp, and Evan has been detailing how decimated the

734
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 1: public betters have been getting this year. If you're if

735
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 1: you see a team catching over sixty percent of the tickets, Evan,

736
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 1: before I continue babbling about this, I don't have the

737
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 1: number right in front of me. How bad has it

738
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 1: been for the those the teams that are catching sixty

739
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 1: percent or more of the bets.

740
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, to be clear, this is sixty percent on close,

741
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 5: so you know have probably tune in like close to

742
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:10,240
Speaker 5: kickoff to kind of look at some of those numbers.

743
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 5: But sixty percent or more fifty four and ninety thirty

744
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 5: eight percent through fifteen weeks pretty ridiculous minus twenty eight

745
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 5: percent return on investment. And maybe the crazier part is

746
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 5: the consistency fourteen of fifteen weeks below five hundred against

747
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 5: the spread in that spot.

748
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 2: So pretty crazy. And there is that a look.

749
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,359
Speaker 1: At US consensus this week, this is crazy and I'm

750
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: with you one hundred percent. I have no issue whatsoever

751
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: with the Ravens this week. The Patriots are the most

752
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 1: heavily bet side in terms of ticket percentage, So not

753
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 1: only eighty one percent, but there's no team in the

754
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: NFL this week that's catching a higher percentage than the

755
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: Patriots are right now. So even though, like Evan said,

756
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 1: these numbers really only hold any sort of trend value

757
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 1: right before kickoff, I doubt you're gonna go from eighty.

758
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 2: One percent to south of sixty percent. So the Patriots will.

759
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 1: Qualify if you like to fade that public trend. So Ravens, Yes,

760
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 1: they're in there at minus three. I'm going to nominate

761
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 1: the Dolphins at plus four or the Cowboys money line.

762
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 2: These are both kind of gross.

763
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 4: You guys are both on some gross ash shit this week.

764
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 1: I kind of like Dolphins, so this line springs. It

765
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 1: was the injury overreaction and the way the market has

766
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 1: settled down after the fact. The line was Bengals minus

767
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 1: two right when you started getting whispers that there might

768
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 1: be a change. Then the line springs to Bengals minus

769
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: four and a half. Across every book that I looked at,

770
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 1: it's your typical overreaction to a benching or injury news.

771
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 1: I just disagree with the movement. Tua hasn't been able

772
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,720
Speaker 1: to complete throws ten yards down the field. He hasn't

773
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 1: been on time, he hasn't been on schedule with this offense.

774
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,720
Speaker 1: He had trouble managing the two minute drill on Monday

775
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 1: Night football. And as much as quin Ewers might be bad,

776
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 1: I think anything fresh for Miami right now is a positive,

777
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 1: especially when you consider how bad the defense is they're

778
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: going up against. We're not asking quin Yours to be

779
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 1: e lite here, and it's not like he's going up

780
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 1: against the LA Rams. I rarely rarely suggest betting the

781
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins, but I do feel like this is the

782
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 1: right read in the right side to be on. And

783
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,399
Speaker 1: the Chargers are just this is let down city for them.

784
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 1: They just beat the Chiefs on the road, and you've

785
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: got Dak on a home stand. Evan points this out

786
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 1: in the Primer second home game in a row for

787
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: the Cowboys with Dak Prescott as the quarterback last fifteen,

788
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 1: He's thirteen and two.

789
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 2: Straight up.

790
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 1: You have the Chargers off of an overtime Monday night

791
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 1: football game and then go on the road to Kansas City,

792
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 1: and now they're on the road in Dallas, and Dallas

793
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 1: always plays better at home, So tough schedule spot for

794
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 1: the Chargers. Those are my two nominations. Kendra vote, Can

795
00:41:58,360 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 1: you just not piss me.

796
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 4: Off for one week and give me something that I

797
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:03,919
Speaker 4: don't have to rip my hair out over.

798
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 2: It's become my mission, really.

799
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 4: I'm kind of just I get the talking point of

800
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,360
Speaker 4: something fresh for Miami, but getting behind a rookie quarterback

801
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 4: at this point in the season feels disgusting.

802
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,800
Speaker 3: But I can't seventh round draft pick too like it

803
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 3: could go like Brasma, you just don't know. It could

804
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 3: be like just a complete It's not like this guy

805
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 3: is the first or second. He's a seventh round draft pick.

806
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: He was a seventh round draft pick.

807
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:31,720
Speaker 1: He is also somebody that, prior to last season starting

808
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 1: at Texas, was projected to be a first round pick.

809
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 1: I mean he had a bad season that it was his.

810
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 4: Draft stock season, double ass booty cheeks season.

811
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: I don't think he's your typical seventh round pick. I

812
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 1: think he has first round ability, it just didn't have

813
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: He just had a he had a rough season. He's

814
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,439
Speaker 1: not a great processor. I've talked to some people down

815
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 1: in the Miami area. It's not like there's buzz around him.

816
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to overhype when you weres here. I

817
00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:59,799
Speaker 1: just I think it's an overreaction. I think two has

818
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: been so bad that any adjustment to Mike McDaniel just

819
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 1: being able to mold his own version of what he

820
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 1: wants a quarterback to be in his offense is going

821
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 1: to be so valuable, even if it's just for a

822
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 1: one week blip and the fact that they get to

823
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:16,439
Speaker 1: do it against a bad defense at home.

824
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 3: I was just gonna say, Dolphins want to lose I

825
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 3: mean the Dolphins are, yeah, kind of indirectly tanking.

826
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:27,439
Speaker 2: They can lose, just lose by less than four.

827
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 3: We gotta get that. I'm not betting the Dolphins. We said,

828
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 3: we said, we didn't know part of that. I would

829
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 3: I so it has to be Dallas.

830
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 4: I disagree. I was gonna say the Dolphins just because

831
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 4: of the thing that I mentioned earlier, with us not

832
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 4: really knowing what type of McDaniels wants to run when

833
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 4: it's not designed around to I give it. I think

834
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 4: that that gives him a little bit more creative freedom here.

835
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 3: I mean, he's just gonna run. They're just gonna run

836
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 3: it like that's all they've been doing. So like I did,

837
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 3: they're just pa give your hand to the eight chene

838
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:02,280
Speaker 3: fifty thirty times again, which might work against the Bengals.

839
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 4: But no Ollie Gordon rushing prop on DK right now.

840
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 3: I'll say Cowboys and make evan But the only thing

841
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 3: is with the Cowboys. The Cowboys might be eliminated from

842
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 3: the playoffs on Saturday night officially, and while I don't

843
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:18,479
Speaker 3: think that impacts them playing at home against the Chargers,

844
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:21,800
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna show up. The market might back

845
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 3: you might get buy back on that. You might get

846
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:28,839
Speaker 3: some money coming in on the Chargers. But I've seen

847
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 3: this before late in the season team gets eliminated. There

848
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,439
Speaker 3: was like a Green Bayal Detroit game in the final

849
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:36,439
Speaker 3: week of the season the Lions got bet against because

850
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 3: they got eliminated earlier in the day. They ended up

851
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 3: beating the Packers. I think it was a Sunday night game,

852
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 3: so you might get a better price there. But I'll

853
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:48,439
Speaker 3: go Dallas. Money line is going to Miami, so Ivan,

854
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:51,720
Speaker 3: you gotta I mean, I just hate both these games.

855
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 5: This is ridiculous if you're gonna make me go ahead

856
00:44:56,160 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 5: and pick though, Like, I just don't understand why Cincinnati

857
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 5: and Miami would be like a consideration because I the

858
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 5: question marks on both sides. You have no idea what

859
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 5: you're gonna get from Burrow, from viewers. There's just so

860
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 5: many question marks.

861
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 3: So that goes off lost to historically.

862
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, but okay, can I pause you right there?

863
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 1: Evan, Yes, there's a lot of question marks, But isn't

864
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 1: that sort of.

865
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 3: Well, then you should go money line. You should just

866
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 3: play the variants.

867
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 1: I mean that there's so much known in the NFL.

868
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 1: This is the most known widely known when.

869
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 3: But you should then you should take the money line,

870
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:37,040
Speaker 3: like if the viewers is disaster, they're gonna get bown out.

871
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 3: Like they're not gonna lose by I mean watching that now,

872
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 3: they said to lose by three.

873
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 1: But I need I need some insurance here, stucky, So

874
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 1: I will take the I will take the four.

875
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 2: But let's just go.

876
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 3: You should go.

877
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 5: You should go Raven's money line, Cowboys money line, and

878
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 5: move on to our next pick. In my opinion, let's

879
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 5: just take the money lines, go to win, and move

880
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:55,879
Speaker 5: on to what we're doing.

881
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I'm so excited for the Dolphins to

882
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 1: cover and watch all they might make.

883
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 3: I'm not saying they couldn't. I just don't want to

884
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 3: have any money on that game.

885
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 5: But Burrow could throw for five hundred yards as well.

886
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:06,439
Speaker 2: Yeah.

887
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 1: My point is is that in an information game, no

888
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 1: sport is known better by any of us that bet

889
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:17,919
Speaker 1: recreationally or beyond than the NFL. Sometimes the only leg

890
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: up we have is betting into the unknown, and that

891
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 1: is what we're doing here.

892
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 5: A seventh round pick from Texas. Let's roll sure, all right,

893
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:28,920
Speaker 5: so we got.

894
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 3: We have a Cowboys moneyline. If you didn't. If you

895
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 3: didn't like Brent, you're not gonna like mine. My first

896
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 3: nomination Titans money line. Did the Chiefs show up? They

897
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 3: have offensive line injuries, they have injuries, a wide receiver,

898
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:51,800
Speaker 3: it's Gardner Minshew. This team has never they haven't played

899
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 3: being eliminated from the playoffs in like eight years. How

900
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 3: do they talk about an emotional letdown? Also, Andy Reid

901
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 3: like wide waist any of your primo playbook here. The

902
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 3: Chiefs can finally get a decent draft pick. I don't

903
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 3: even know if they show up.

904
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:10,320
Speaker 2: Titans.

905
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:13,359
Speaker 3: Also they have safety injuries, offensive line injuries, but they'll

906
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 3: be excited for this game with cam Ward. I think

907
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 3: there's a lot of aarants and the Chiefs could just

908
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 3: lay down, like they could just be completely flat. And

909
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 3: they can't even run the ball. Their offense has been

910
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 3: struggling anyway, and then after more offensive line injuries to

911
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 3: start that game last week, they couldn't do a thing

912
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 3: with homes So and the Titans have been running the

913
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:33,440
Speaker 3: ball better late. So the high variance game where the

914
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 3: Chiefs might just know show so Titan's money line or

915
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 3: if that didn't let your appetite raiders plus fourteen and

916
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 3: a half. It's my favorite out of the weekend. Sadly

917
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 3: so Texans injuries have They have some injuries and secondary

918
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,280
Speaker 3: marks and running back. They've lost some guys in the Interier.

919
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 3: Their defensive line, raiders, they're horrendous. They're bad. But they

920
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 3: might get Holton Miller back at left tackle. That would

921
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:06,240
Speaker 3: be massive. He's like an Andrew Thomas one of the Giants.

922
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 3: Whenever they didn't have Andrew Thomas, their offensive line and

923
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 3: completely crumbled. So'll not gonna be a good offensive line.

924
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 3: But if you have a top five left tackle, you

925
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 3: can actually like function a little bit more. So he's practicing,

926
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:19,720
Speaker 3: came off. I think he's gonna play, but we'll see.

927
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 3: But this is mainly just bilow cell high spot. I

928
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 3: think we're at the peak of the market on the Texans.

929
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 3: Everyone is like, you don't want to play the Texans.

930
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 3: The Texans are going to win the AFC. That's your

931
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:29,720
Speaker 3: number one signal that we're at the top of the market.

932
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 3: They've won six straight.

933
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:32,799
Speaker 1: I did just bet them to win the Super Bowl,

934
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:34,440
Speaker 1: so stuck. He's probably right about that.

935
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, then they've benefited from a bunch of like a

936
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 3: lot of the teams they've played over the past their

937
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 3: six game winning you've been all been hurt. The Bills

938
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 3: didn't have an offensive line. Daniel Jones got hurt with

939
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 3: the Colts. The Chiefs had no offensive line. The Cardinals

940
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 3: whole team was hurt. So and four of their six

941
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 3: wins have come by one possession. Only one of the

942
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 3: six has been a playoff team. They still can't finish drives,

943
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 3: which is not ideal for a team you want to

944
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:00,759
Speaker 3: win by three possessions. In the NFL, thirtieth in red

945
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 3: zone touchdown percentage. And this is also a bottom on

946
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:08,720
Speaker 3: the Raiders. They were shut out with eighty yards last week.

947
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 3: The Eagles went on a seventeen play, ninety yards scoreless

948
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 3: drive to finish the game that took eleven minutes. That

949
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 3: was more yards than the Raiders had in the entire game.

950
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 3: Teams off a shutout seventy four to fifty five and

951
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 3: five against the spread, fifty seven and a half percent

952
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 3: on the road, sixty five percent, covering by over a

953
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:30,200
Speaker 3: field goal per game. Road dogs off a shutout loss

954
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 3: sixty five percent historically. But this is one of my

955
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 3: and look, the Raiders are so bad, like it's it's bad,

956
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 3: but they've been blown out a bunch this year. Here's

957
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:43,919
Speaker 3: what they've done after seventeen plus point losses. They lost

958
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:45,920
Speaker 3: by one to the Bears, they should have won. They

959
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,760
Speaker 3: beat the Titans by ten. They lost to the Jags

960
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 3: by one. They lost to the Broncos by seven and

961
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 3: covered shut out. Pete Carroll and Pete Carroll if you're

962
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 3: down seventeen this week, kicked that field goal and then

963
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 3: they got They lost by fourteen to the Browns. They're

964
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 3: four and one against the spread after law is this

965
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 3: year and one of my favorite trends. I mean, the

966
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:06,280
Speaker 3: main reason I like this is Bilo cell High Miller

967
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 3: might be back, Texans have some injuries. I make it

968
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 3: under two touchdowns. I think we're getting over two touchdowns

969
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 3: because of the perception of these two teams. And one

970
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 3: of my favorite trends rarely comes up, but when there's

971
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 3: a double digit dog in the NFL for a second

972
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 3: straight week that didn't cover in the first week, past

973
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 3: twenty five years, fifty to twenty five against the spread,

974
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 3: covering by about four points per game. Why do I

975
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 3: like that trend? Well, usually you're you're getting a point

976
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 3: or two of value because no one, no one in

977
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 3: the right mind wants to bet a team, right. They

978
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 3: were a double digitalg the week prior they didn't cover,

979
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 3: which means bad team, blown out, looked awful. The next

980
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 3: week they're double digit dog again, which means bad team

981
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,960
Speaker 3: playing another good team. So who wants to bet this

982
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 3: bad team at that? They saw them lose thirty one

983
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 3: to nothing with seventy yards. I think that's why we're

984
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 3: getting over two touchdowns. So yeah, I like the Raiders

985
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 3: catching their two touchdowns. Think they think this line should

986
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 3: be like thirteen thirteen.

987
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:04,359
Speaker 2: And a half.

988
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:08,319
Speaker 1: Okay, that was a fantastic case, but no, I will

989
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 1: I love the Titans this week.

990
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 2: I voted the Titans easy, no case.

991
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 4: I was going to see the Raiders just because I'm

992
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 4: cheering so hard against the Texans.

993
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 5: So evan Titans, no question about it.

994
00:51:23,320 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 3: Money line, money line point.

995
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,400
Speaker 1: We're going money line. Yeah, money, We're going money line favorites.

996
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:29,800
Speaker 1: With the other two, I think I think we should

997
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: go money on.

998
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:30,800
Speaker 2: They've covered.

999
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 5: They've covered six games this year after the worst Ats

1000
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 5: year in NFL history. They've covered their last two against

1001
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 5: teams under five hundred, which you know, just left to

1002
00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 5: let you know that is the Chiefs.

1003
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 4: I touchdowns a lot. Can we do the points?

1004
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:51,240
Speaker 3: Touchdown Titans, Ravens, Cowboys six to one at Draftings gorgeous.

1005
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 1: Let's ride that right there, Your two Kings and a

1006
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:58,240
Speaker 1: Queen parlay presented by Draft Kings. The Crown is yours.

1007
00:51:58,280 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special. Thanks to our

1008
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:04,880
Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold, David Paynes, Statsound, Evan Abrams for breaking

1009
00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:09,719
Speaker 1: some ties around here. Shout out to Stucky, his wife and.

1010
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 2: His new Little Burrito. Glad to have you back.

1011
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:15,040
Speaker 1: The Favorites will return on Sunday Night, Week sixteen. A

1012
00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:17,840
Speaker 1: recap catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.

1013
00:52:17,880 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. We'll see you next time here

1014
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:21,719
Speaker 1: on the Favorites presented by DraftKings.

1015
00:52:21,920 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 3: Don't see that She's ticket. Action Network reminds you please

1016
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 3: gamble responsibly.

1017
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:39,240
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1018
00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1019
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 4: hundred Gambler