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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go from the test throwing out

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Speaker 1: spect I'm saying it's a cash to stop. We see

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Speaker 1: most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 1: and we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast,

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Speaker 1: presented by Bett MGM. I'm Jill Gland. I'm joined by

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Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. Each and every week, he is our research

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Speaker 1: director here at the Action Network and my partner in crime.

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Speaker 1: As we do these podcasts, we're gonna dive into all

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Speaker 1: of the Sunday NFL action for week seven. Brandon Anderson

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Speaker 1: will have his hot reads later in the show for

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Speaker 1: week eight, and Patrick Everson from Vegas Insider, he'll give

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Speaker 1: us an update on the sportsbooks of Vegas and how

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Speaker 1: they fared this NFL Sunday. But before we dive into

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Speaker 1: Sunday action, Evan, let's look at Monday Night Football forty

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Speaker 1: nine Ers Vikings Niners at six and a half point

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Speaker 1: road favorites over under at forty four. I'll be honest,

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Speaker 1: I was looking at this game a lot from more

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Speaker 1: of a touchdown prop and interception prop standpoint. But the

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Speaker 1: more that I dive into it, Evan, I really do

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Speaker 1: kind of like the Vikings in this side. And again

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Speaker 1: I sound crazy even saying that out loud, especially because

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Speaker 1: of how the Niners are this season, but a lot

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Speaker 1: of injuries for the Niners coming into this game. You know,

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Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey, he's going to play, but you know backups

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Speaker 1: like Jordan Mason and Eli Mitchell they're going to get

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Speaker 1: some work. So it's gonna have to be a full

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Speaker 1: team effort. And every game that the Vikings play comes

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Speaker 1: down to one score, you know that it's going to

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Speaker 1: come down to like this last kind of drive. You know,

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Speaker 1: even if they're trailing in the fourth quarter, we've seen

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Speaker 1: them come back push the ball. So I kind of

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Speaker 1: like the Vikings on this side. What are you think

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Speaker 1: you for a side total in this game?

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Speaker 2: So I got a bunch of stuff here. I kind

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Speaker 2: of like the first quarter of Vikings. I think they

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Speaker 2: could start out hot, you maybe get a lead. Perdy's

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Speaker 2: been kind of a different quarterback on the road, So

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Speaker 2: I believe I got in there like one fifty one sixty.

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Speaker 2: I thought that was interesting. I'm always giving out a

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Speaker 2: touchdown or two. I think Brandon Powell and Osbourne are

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Speaker 2: probably the two guys I would look at from the

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Speaker 2: Minnesota side.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: I've seen Powell's high as like thirty to one for

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Speaker 2: first touchdown, which could be a good flyer. And I

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Speaker 2: think the thing that everyone will talk about when you

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Speaker 2: bring up this game is just the history with Kirk

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Speaker 2: Cousins and Monday night football. Uh. And ten, I believe

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Speaker 2: is the number in his career, So I mean, not great.

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Speaker 2: He started forty primetime games, which is you know, high profile,

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Speaker 2: so night playoffs, overseas, Saturday, et cetera. Fifteen and twenty

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Speaker 2: five against the spread, so not so hot. But I

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Speaker 2: think this is a decent spot. And you know, on

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Speaker 2: that turf and minute soda, you know, San Francisco could

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Speaker 2: be a bit of a different team. The stat that's

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Speaker 2: a little scary. Can Cousins pull the upset as an

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Speaker 2: underdog of four points or more? He's seven and twenty

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Speaker 2: four straight up, so maybe not the full game upset,

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Speaker 2: but we'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think I'm ready to commit to a Vikings.

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Speaker 2: Win really anything.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, but I think just where we're at at

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Speaker 1: the number, and I think with the Niners being more

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Speaker 1: of a public team, maybe you might see a seven

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Speaker 1: pop up and then obviously you want to jump on

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Speaker 1: the Vikings immediately. But at a six and a half,

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Speaker 1: you know, I could understand the reservations. I still think though,

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Speaker 1: getting the Vikings with points at home the way that

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Speaker 1: they passed. You know how much Kirk Cousins has been

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Speaker 1: blitz this year and still having success throwing that That's

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Speaker 1: kind of why I like them to keep this game close.

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Speaker 1: But I can't really commit to like an over under

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Speaker 1: for a total, but from a prop standpoint, really like

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Speaker 1: brock Purty interception in this game. It's around plus one

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Speaker 1: sixty five. It's got a really high bad ball rate.

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Speaker 1: Vikings they blitz the most in the NFL, and according

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Speaker 1: to Nick Giffin and our predictive analytics team, you know

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Speaker 1: that as Sean Kerner and Billy Ward, Rockferry is one

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Speaker 1: of the luckiest quarterbacks in the NFL based on his

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Speaker 1: bad ball rate and the fact that he only has

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Speaker 1: one interception this year. So I think that this is

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Speaker 1: a spot where he could definitely throw an interception in

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Speaker 1: the spot especially around plus one sixty five. But for

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Speaker 1: a touchdown prop, I think you just got to look

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Speaker 1: at Brandon Ayuk and Ronnie Belly. You want to look

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Speaker 1: at the outside wide receivers for the Vikings because they

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Speaker 1: do play a lot of man coverage outside receivers. Those

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Speaker 1: are the ones that can typically can convert on a

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Speaker 1: defense like this, and if the Vikings somehow get a lead,

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Speaker 1: you know Io's going to be on the field for

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Speaker 1: that chance to be able to maybe tie it up.

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Speaker 1: And for the Viking side, I think the same thing.

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Speaker 1: You want to look at kJ Osborne. He's playing over

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Speaker 1: ninety percent of snap since Justin Jefferson is out, he's

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Speaker 1: over plus three hundred. So it's between him and Jordan

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Speaker 1: Addison is who's wide receiver one rate now in that offense.

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Speaker 1: So the fact that you're able to get at least

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Speaker 1: a wide receiver too, who's playing over ninety percent of

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Speaker 1: snaps over plus three hundred. I know the Niners defense

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Speaker 1: is pretty tough, but again, you know Kirk Cousins is

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Speaker 1: gonna throw probably forty times in this game, right, So

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Speaker 1: so I think the I think it's a safe bet

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Speaker 1: to look at passing touchdowns for the Vikings. All right, Evan,

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Speaker 1: let's look now at Sunday Night football and let's just

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Speaker 1: talk about what happened here this Sunday. So six teams

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Speaker 1: on by this week. We've got the Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Jets,

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Speaker 1: and Titans all on by this week and home teams

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Speaker 1: eight and four and nine and three against the spread.

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Speaker 1: But Evan, please expand on this more totals seven and

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Speaker 1: five to the under again this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we actually thought we were gonna get an over week.

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Speaker 2: Over goes one and oh on Thursday Night football. We

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Speaker 2: overgoes four and two in the early window, so overs

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Speaker 2: start five and two and then four and oh unders

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Speaker 2: in the late afternoon, and then Sunday Night football. You know,

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Speaker 2: Eagles just sit on the ball at the end there

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Speaker 2: stays under the total. So unders now seven and five

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Speaker 2: this week and the Sigans. There is just this crazy

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Speaker 2: stat kind of continues, which is the last twenty five

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Speaker 2: regular season weeks. It's dating back to Week one of

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Speaker 2: last season. There have only been three weeks where there

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Speaker 2: have been more overs than under, so three overs, fifteen

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Speaker 2: unders and seven pushes. So we continue to see a

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Speaker 2: small edge at least this week, but unders continue to roll.

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Speaker 1: The Dolphins Eagles. I think is where I want to

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Speaker 1: pivot to here, because the Eagles win thirty one to seventeen.

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Speaker 1: The total does go under really slow first quarter, only

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Speaker 1: three point or six points. Rather between the two second

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Speaker 1: quarter we did see twenty one points. But the Eagles

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Speaker 1: do cover as three point home favorites with a nice

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Speaker 1: bounce back game after losing to the Jets last week.

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Speaker 1: But like you said, fifty two and a half does

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Speaker 1: go under. And I kind of laughed there at the

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Speaker 1: end because I feel like Nick Sirianni kind of said,

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Speaker 1: f you're over ticket. Like they had first and eight

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Speaker 1: with two minutes to go, and they kneel it out

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Speaker 1: as they should, but at the same time, they could

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Speaker 1: have easily just went for it just to really ensure

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Speaker 1: what was going on here, kind of like what we

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Speaker 1: saw from Sean McVay in Week two when he kicked

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Speaker 1: that last second deal going clearly that was not going

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Speaker 1: to win the game, but the refs men were out

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Speaker 1: of control in this game. I'm just gonna say ten

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Speaker 1: penalties for the Dolphins and the Eagles have none, and

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Speaker 1: probably the most egregious one is that Cedric Wilson that

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Speaker 1: non call the face mass penalty, Like the fact that

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Speaker 1: that was the non call I thought was probably more

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Speaker 1: important than the actual ten to zip for the penalties.

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Speaker 1: Here is just a total hack job by the referees

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Speaker 1: in this game against the Dolphins. Even though I do

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Speaker 1: feel like this is what we've been saying about the

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Speaker 1: Eagles for a few weeks now, I haven't the Eagles

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Speaker 1: played to their competition, Like when it's the bigger games,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna show up the weaker teams, they tend to

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Speaker 1: just kind of take their foot off the gas. You know,

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Speaker 1: the Commanders, they couldn't even put up seven points today.

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Speaker 1: They score thirty on them a few weeks ago. Right,

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Speaker 1: So I think that's kind of what I take away

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Speaker 1: from this game is that the Eagles, when it's against

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Speaker 1: the big teams, you know that they're gonna probably play well.

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Speaker 1: But against the weaker teams, I think you could probably

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Speaker 1: take advantage of them and maybe even take a lot

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Speaker 1: of the team's underdog ats.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so much to say, Let's start with your last

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Speaker 2: point there, which I agree with Dolphins. I believe zero

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Speaker 2: to two against teams above five hundred and five and

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Speaker 2: zero against teams below five hundred, so they are finding

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Speaker 2: themselves in a very similar scenario where they can't beat

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Speaker 2: the best. And here's the interesting one, right, the ten

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Speaker 2: penalties to zero. So only the third time in the

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Speaker 2: last thirty years, only a third time in the last

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty years you've had a team ten or more

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Speaker 2: penalties versus a team who had zero. So you don't

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Speaker 2: see that discrepancy every day. And to me, it's Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 2: It's crazy. Twenty one to three and one, nineteen and

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Speaker 2: six against the spread first half. So Simon Hunter has

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Speaker 2: been all over this, he's been betting it. But they're

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Speaker 2: just a great first half team, I'll say against twenty

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Speaker 2: one to three and one straight up, both best marks

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Speaker 2: in the NFL straight up and against the spread. So

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Speaker 2: just great there. And then anytime touchdown it feels like

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Speaker 2: it's kind of free money. But Tyreek now touchdown in

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Speaker 2: six to last seven games. Hurts five to the last six,

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Speaker 2: eight to last ten with a touchdown, So it feels

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Speaker 2: like every time those two guys play, they're Vitali in

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Speaker 2: the offense. So and here's one that you're gonna love.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure you're gonna have a comment here. So eight

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Speaker 2: interceptions now for Jalen Hurts, Yes, now tied with Jimmy

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Speaker 2: Garoppolo for the most of the NFL. Hurts is sixty

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Speaker 2: six to one to lead the category for the full season.

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Speaker 2: Obviously a long way to go, but that is a

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Speaker 2: fun ticket. Any thoughts there, Jill, Well.

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Speaker 1: It's hilarious that you bring that up because I talk

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Speaker 1: about the plus money quarterbacks aspect of this all the time,

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Speaker 1: and right now, because he's been plus money every week

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Speaker 1: this year, he is the most profitable quarterback I t

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Speaker 1: prop going right now. And that was some of the

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Speaker 1: story of this game. More Hurts turnovers, a fumble in

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Speaker 1: the first quarter, you know, I pick six in the

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Speaker 1: third quarter. Outside of those two mistakes, though, I'll be honest,

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Speaker 1: Dolphins didn't do much. You could tell they miss Jalen Waddle.

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Speaker 1: Like when they were entering the fourth quarter. Tyreek had

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Speaker 1: thirteen targets. Nobody else had more than two targets going

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Speaker 1: into the fourth quarter. There was clearly a mandate speed

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Speaker 1: Tyreek here. And I give credit to Mike McDaniel for realizing, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we're not gonna have Wattle, but you got to change

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Speaker 1: it up man like that was part of what led

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Speaker 1: to that late turnover. And I would just say going

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Speaker 1: forward for the Dolphins, Dallas got are pretty solid today

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Speaker 1: and that just keeps reaffirming that the Dolphins continue to

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Speaker 1: struggle versus tight ends. So now they're playing the Patriots

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Speaker 1: coming up. Hunter Henry touchdown could be a pretty solid

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Speaker 1: look next week. I mean, he scored in Week two

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Speaker 1: on them, right, so I think that's where I'd be

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Speaker 1: looking right now, just looking at that. But yeah, what

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Speaker 1: my main takeaway is that the Eagles play to their

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Speaker 1: competition and the Dolphins just maybe are still a tier

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Speaker 1: below despite their offense being pretty superior against eighty percent

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Speaker 1: of the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Eagles walked in with a five percent sack percentage opponent

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Speaker 2: sack percentage, So basically, you know, really good defense ends

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Speaker 2: up sacking a lot of quarterbacks. So into his career,

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Speaker 2: he started seventeen now eighteen road games, he is three

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Speaker 2: and eight when that defense has over three percent sack

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Speaker 2: percentage and five and two when it's three percent or least.

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Speaker 2: So pressure tends to be an issue, and you know

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Speaker 2: it turned out that way tonight. So let's talk about

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Speaker 2: those paths. Let's do it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Bill's Pats. What a fun game this is

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Speaker 1: just because you get to watch the Bills get dropped

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Speaker 1: down a notch. But also at the same time, it's

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Speaker 1: not enough for you as somebody who has been on

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Speaker 1: the Patriots to fall this year, where all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: now it's completely changed because they're only two and five

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Speaker 1: in the standings. But yes, Bill's Patriots. Patriots win twenty

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Speaker 1: nine to twenty five. Bills lose outright as road favorites

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Speaker 1: of seven and a half. We'll talk about that more

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Speaker 1: in a second, and the over under at forty one

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Speaker 1: total does go over. I think one of the surprising

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Speaker 1: statf's You compile a lot of data for our team

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Speaker 1: here at Action Network, and one of the stats that

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Speaker 1: you had was about how Mac Jones was on to

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Speaker 1: fourteen straight up when opponents scored more than twenty four

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Speaker 1: points in his career, and the Bills scored twenty five

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Speaker 1: today and he still comes out with a win. And

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Speaker 1: Ev and I want you to explain just how storic

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Speaker 1: this big spread in New England was, because we don't

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Speaker 1: see this very often.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So two just fun numbers. We'll talk about the

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Speaker 2: bet percentage first. So New England walked into this game today,

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Speaker 2: which is twenty three percent of the tickets according to

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Speaker 2: Action Network Action Labs only twenty three percent of tickets

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Speaker 2: at home, so that would be their second lowest bet

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Speaker 2: game in the last twenty years, behind just Brady's return

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Speaker 2: to New England. And of course you even look at

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Speaker 2: Belichick right third biggest three games right eight and a half,

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Speaker 2: seven and a half are higher home underdog. He's covered

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Speaker 2: all of them, so tends to be a decent spot.

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Speaker 2: Obviously without Brady, those numbers have looked awful when he's

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Speaker 2: an underdog, but showed up today. Uh you know, I

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Speaker 2: had Buffalo, I'm in Buffalo. First half money that went

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Speaker 2: out the window. They just looked awful, awful all around.

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Speaker 2: And next week next week knew New England gets Miami,

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Speaker 2: so maybe a get right spot. I mean both teams,

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Speaker 2: you know, find themselves again. Where Miami is off a loss,

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Speaker 2: New England off a win, and that line is now

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Speaker 2: eleven eleven and a half, which would be New England's

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Speaker 2: biggest underdogs in Super Bowl thirty six, which is a fun.

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Speaker 1: This was supposed to This was supposed to be the

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Speaker 1: get right spot though for Buffalo right, like you know

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Speaker 1: what I mean, like this, like the fourteen nine game

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Speaker 1: with the Giants, the loss to the to the Jaguars

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Speaker 1: the week before the next question, I have to ask

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Speaker 1: you Ivan, are the Bills broken? Like they're usually good

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Speaker 1: for one dad a year, you know, like a Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: game where the opposite Josh Allen all of a sudden

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Speaker 1: goes nuts on them. But now this is three games

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Speaker 1: in a row where they just don't look right.

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Speaker 2: There, twenty five points. I mean it could you know,

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Speaker 2: could have been worse. I think their defense have shown

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Speaker 2: some issues, right, I mean, with White's injury, Milano's injury

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Speaker 2: hasn't been has it been like super great lately, So

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Speaker 2: I mean I think on that side there's probably a worry.

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Speaker 2: I mean I think, let me look at her right now.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah. So their past defense eight point six yards

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Speaker 2: per attempt to Mac, no interception since Tua in week four,

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Speaker 2: So I think you know, you know, listen, Josh Allen

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Speaker 2: never gonna have a clean sheet. The guy hasn't had

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Speaker 2: back to that game I'll turnover since like twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: So it's just that that's just not the player he is.

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Speaker 2: But I will say this, so it looks like yards

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Speaker 2: per attempt from Buffalo's offense six point one today, five

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Speaker 2: point six last week, which is obviously awful, but it

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Speaker 2: was nine in Young London. That's yards per play. So

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Speaker 2: two bad games in a row. And then if you

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Speaker 2: look ahead on the schedule, Buffalo plays Tampa Bay now

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Speaker 2: at home, short week, so you know, nothing better than

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Speaker 2: short rest, get the losses out the window, and another

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Speaker 2: opportunity against Tampa's defense.

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Speaker 1: But well, for sure, Yeah, and I think what we

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Speaker 1: saw today too, Evan is Bills they couldn't really get

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Speaker 1: those big splash plays over the top. I know Das

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Speaker 1: ended up scoring that wild touchdown, but that was more

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Speaker 1: I feel like that was a broken play instead of

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Speaker 1: just those plays over the top to Gabe Davis or

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Speaker 1: you know, James Cook running for an eighty five yard touchdown.

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Speaker 1: That they didn't have a play or a completion that

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Speaker 1: was over thirty yards today, And that's usually one of

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Speaker 1: their things about bread and butter, especially the run game.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the past they got up by twelve was

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Speaker 1: seven minutes to go, and I know that you were

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Speaker 1: saying like they put up twenty five, but they didn't

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Speaker 1: really show that urgency until there was seven minutes to go,

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Speaker 1: and then they scored those two touchdowns, right, So I

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Speaker 1: think it's good to know that the Bills can turn

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Speaker 1: it on when they need to. But I think somebody

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Speaker 1: needs to remind them that maybe we need to turn

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Speaker 1: it on in the second quarter and maybe not laid

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Speaker 1: in the fourth. And I think also I did find

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Speaker 1: it kind of poetic that Mike Giseki scored the game

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Speaker 1: winning touchdown because last year against the Bills with the Dolphins,

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Speaker 1: and the Bills hadn't allowed a touchdown to a tight

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Speaker 1: end all year, and Nick Givan and I go on

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Speaker 1: the Touchdown Show and say, do not take Mike Gaseki

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Speaker 1: yet plus six hundred, this is bad odds. And he

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Speaker 1: scores a touchdown on this Bill's defense and then scores

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Speaker 1: what would have been the game winning touchdown.

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Speaker 2: He might score against the pay the Dolphins next week.

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Speaker 2: Back to back revenge game perfect.

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Speaker 1: Him and Hunt all. The revenge game angle is definitely there,

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Speaker 1: especially because he was involved in Week two. But I

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Speaker 1: steel like Hunter Henry as well. I think both of

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Speaker 1: them are in play in that game. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: move on to another barn burner today. One of those

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Speaker 1: games Evan that honestly, if somebody asked you, what game

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Speaker 1: do you think is going to have the most points

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Speaker 1: scored today, this probably would have been my last pick.

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Speaker 1: Brown's Colts, Brown's win thirty nine to thirty eight. Of yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's just unbelievable. You know that the Browns do end

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Speaker 1: up winning the game, but do not cover as three

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites the total as I was mentioning,

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Speaker 1: because you see a thirty nine to thirty eight score,

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Speaker 1: the total was at forty and a half. So it

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Speaker 1: just to me that was unbelievable that we were able

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Speaker 1: to see so many points between really backup quarterbacks. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I know Deshaun Watson did start the game, but he

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Speaker 1: only played one series. Browns now two and thirteen against

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Speaker 1: the spread after their last fifteen games after a straight

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Speaker 1: up win. So one of those things about consistency with

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Speaker 1: this team, they're not really being able to get stuff

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Speaker 1: going consistently. But yeah, sixty one points entering the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: There were four fourth quarter lead changes. You know. One

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Speaker 1: of the things that I found really interesting Evan too,

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Speaker 1: is this Browns defense. And you know they rightfully so

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Speaker 1: they've been touted as the best defense in the NFL

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Speaker 1: because they'd only allowed a total of three touchdowns all

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Speaker 1: season coming into this game. And then the Colts score

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Speaker 1: three touchdowns in the first half, three rushing touchdowns for

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Speaker 1: the game. Gardner Minshew, we got the whole Gardner Minshew

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Speaker 1: game in here. We got some deep passes to Michael Pittman,

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Speaker 1: we got two rushing touchdowns, he got stripsacked twice. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the interception Miles Garrett was everywhere. For me. The biggest

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Speaker 1: takeaway is the Browns. I think they surprisingly their defense

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Speaker 1: did play well in this game despite giving up thirty

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Speaker 1: eight points.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just an odd box score because you wouldn't even

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Speaker 2: look at it and say Cleveland's defense played awful. But

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Speaker 2: yet there was seventy points put up in the game.

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Speaker 2: So to hit off one of your points. Stefanski, Browns

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Speaker 2: head coach, so now ten and eighteen against the spread

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Speaker 2: after a straight up win. That would be one hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty fourth of one hundred and forty two head

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Speaker 2: coaches last twenty years. So I just cannot find himself

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Speaker 2: a winning streak. Tough. Look there, I think if you

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Speaker 2: watch this game, you said to yourself, oh my god,

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Speaker 2: Miles Garrett probably four or five six times looking at

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Speaker 2: the odds, which I think is kind of fascinating he is.

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Speaker 2: It's him co favorite with my with Michael Parsons Defensive

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Speaker 2: Player of the Year, with TJ. Watt at plus two

385
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Speaker 2: thirty right behind him. So again every week, those three

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Speaker 2: players just kind of going back and forth. But the

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Speaker 2: fun stat with Garrett today two sacks, two forced fumbles,

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Speaker 2: blocked field goal, first player since nineteen ninety one to

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Speaker 2: do that. Just he's a freak. It's every single week,

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Speaker 2: just and in terms of we talked about this last week,

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Speaker 2: the yards given up by Cleveland's defense one thousand yards

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Speaker 2: through five games. They gave up four fifty six today.

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Speaker 2: And here's the fun stat. So Minshew threw for three

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Speaker 2: h five against them today. Three hundred passing yards last

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Speaker 2: two years against the Browns would be Zappi f and Minchew.

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Speaker 2: So not the best quarters I'd find them way into

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Speaker 2: those games. But yeah, just a crazy game overall, just

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Speaker 2: lots of lots of oddities. And then I think the

399
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Speaker 2: thing that you really get from Minshew is like the

400
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Speaker 2: full game experience, right, and you talked about it, but

401
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Speaker 2: it tends he tends to not win these types of

402
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Speaker 2: games so spread four or less, which would call a

403
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Speaker 2: toss up game. He's three and ten straight up in

404
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Speaker 2: his career, so if I had to guess, he tends

405
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Speaker 2: to lose by threes, fours, five, Six's just high scoring

406
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Speaker 2: games and there ends up being you know, multiple turnovers.

407
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Speaker 2: And here's a crazy one. So inh Minchew's opponent scores

408
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Speaker 2: more than twenty points, he's one in fifteen straight up.

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Speaker 1: So the only thing that I would just push back on,

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Speaker 1: and I mean, they're trends, I can't really push back

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Speaker 1: too much on them. But at the same time, I

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Speaker 1: feel like Minshew won this goddamn game. Man, I've got

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Speaker 1: a real book with how this game ended, and might

414
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Speaker 1: beef again with the refsman. PJ. Walker should have been

415
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Speaker 1: stripsacked to end this game. Horse Buckner got the strip sack.

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Speaker 1: There's a total bullshit balo call man for I legal

417
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Speaker 1: defense gives the brown first and goal and then it's

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Speaker 1: another DPI to Donovan People's jones. It was clearly an

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Speaker 1: uncatchable ball, like I want Look, I get it. We

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Speaker 1: all want the Browns to be good. We all want

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Speaker 1: them to come back and be just relevant again. But

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Speaker 1: come on, like and if you had close money on this,

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Speaker 1: like you're one hundred like condolences man.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely ridiculous. I just the way every time I And

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Speaker 2: it's just so funny because it seems like when I

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Speaker 2: watched Anthony Richardson games, it was just a lot more calm.

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Speaker 2: There was like sanity involved in a lot of those games.

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Speaker 2: And now with Minshew, it's just something about his style

429
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Speaker 2: and his attitude. It just his games are chaos and

430
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Speaker 2: to have a Cleveland game where there was seventy points

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Speaker 2: that just you just don't have that. So this is

432
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,160
Speaker 2: probably one of the wild ones today for sure.

433
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 1: All Right, Evan, More memories are made when you're there

434
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 1: for live NFL action and when you need tickets, our

435
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440
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444
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 1: Find tickets today at ticketmaster dot com slash NFL. The

445
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast is presented by BETTMGM. Used bonus code

446
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449
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450
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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

451
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called hundred gambler. Now it's time for the

452
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 1: hot read from our own Brandon Anderson. Brandon, what do

453
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,959
Speaker 1: you have us looking at for early Week eight Lions?

454
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 3: All right, let's do a little Week eight hot read.

455
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 3: A bit of a tough streak here. We're getting colv

456
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 3: but not getting our picks across. So let's get a

457
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 3: win on the board. Let's go back to a just

458
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 3: win baby teaser to get our week started out. I'm

459
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 3: gonna take the Ravens minus eight at the Cardinals and

460
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 3: the Lions minus seven and a half against the Raiders

461
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 3: home on Monday Night football, so both teams tease.

462
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: Them under afield goal. Ravens demolished the Lions.

463
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 3: We're taking both teams here, but you don't need I

464
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 3: don't need to sell you on the Ravens. They obviously

465
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:49,719
Speaker 3: just had one of the best wins of the season

466
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 3: in my opinion. Cardinals their bubble burst like a month ago.

467
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 3: They got that win against Dallas. We decided that, oh,

468
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 3: the Cardinals are kind of frisky now, and then right

469
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 3: about them, they kind of grass back to bottom five.

470
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 3: Pretty much everything as we expected. The offense, it's gotten

471
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 3: worse each week. Their defense was second the worst in

472
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 3: DVAA entering the weekend, and Baltimore basically just played a

473
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 3: perfect game from Lamar Jackson in the offense. Todd Munkin,

474
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 3: I think finally got his top performance he's been looking for.

475
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:20,719
Speaker 3: I think the Ravens can kind of do anything they

476
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 3: want against the Cardinals. Defense should be able to run

477
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 3: it up and at least win by a field goal

478
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 3: for us, and then the Lions. Look, they got crushed here,

479
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 3: but it was a bad spots Jared Goff Outdoors on

480
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 3: the road in the wind, miss a lot of guys

481
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 3: I'm kind of new going in. That's not a great

482
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 3: spot for him. Here we are home Monday night. The

483
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 3: Lions are different animal at home. This is only their

484
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 3: second time even hosting money at football since twenty four team.

485
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 3: So this is a spot where Dean Campbell's sort of team.

486
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 3: They're gonna come out with pride. They're gonna come out

487
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 3: and show that. Today what we saw was a fluke.

488
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 3: So I think they take care of the Raiders, who, frankly,

489
00:24:58,160 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 3: I don't know how this team has won three games.

490
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 3: They got embarrassed by the Bears today, thirty to twelve

491
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 3: to the Bears. The Chicago Bears at two hundred and

492
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 3: thirty five yards in this game, you lose to aagent

493
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 3: Division two debut as a rookie, You allow three touchdowns

494
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 3: to Dante Foreman. I mean that's embarrassing. So these are

495
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 3: these teams. Both got embarrassed. But I'm gonna be too

496
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 3: thrown off by the Lions. They were in my number

497
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 3: one team the power rankings. They have proven themselves throughout

498
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 3: the season. I'm not gonna let one week throw us

499
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,719
Speaker 3: off the scent. The Raiders just aren't very good. They

500
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,719
Speaker 3: are not a three win team, despite what the win

501
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 3: last record says. They're a lot more like the team

502
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 3: that just kind of got embarrassed by the Bears. So

503
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 3: give me the Lions, give me the Ravens. I would

504
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 3: not be surprised if either or both of these teams

505
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 3: get too nine. Teaser protection really to stop us from

506
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 3: doing what we're doing right now. So let's tease them.

507
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,360
Speaker 3: Ravens minus two, Lions minus one and a half. Just win,

508
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 3: maybe by a field goal other hot red four. Week eight,

509
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 3: let's go to Seattle and give me the Seahawks minus

510
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 3: two and a half against the I think that one

511
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 3: possibly could get to the key number. I want to

512
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 3: grab it below the three. What goofy, goofy game for

513
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 3: the Browns on Sunday rip to our hot reed under

514
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 3: forty one. Both teams just about clear that. So that

515
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 3: did not work out for us. I don't know how

516
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 3: Cleveland scored thirty nine. Though Deshaun Watson is terrible. He's

517
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 3: apparently back, but he completed one pass on the five

518
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 3: attempts he throws in a reception. He goes out with

519
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 3: an injury. That's not an injury that kind of looks

520
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 3: like you just got benched. You're getting benched this like

521
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 3: make a contract for PGA Walker, who continues to be

522
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 3: not great. He had two turnovers in more in completions

523
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 3: than completions. And this historic Browns defense we've been talking

524
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 3: about all the year.

525
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 1: I don't know what happened.

526
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 3: They allowed nine plays to the Colts of seventeen plays

527
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 3: or more. The Colts aren't really even an explosive offense,

528
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 3: and they're playing with a backup quarterback in Gardner Minshew Miles.

529
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,479
Speaker 3: Garrett effectively single handily wins the game for the Browns

530
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 3: generally half their points. Hopefully doesn't do that against Seattle.

531
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 3: It is a bit of a risk here, but I

532
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,120
Speaker 3: think that we have pay attention on the other side

533
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 3: of the ball. We're gonna get a lot of talk

534
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 3: about Brown's defense, Seattle offense. It's a fun matchup. The

535
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:15,360
Speaker 3: other side is where the bet is. Seattle's defense. Actually,

536
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 3: in the last three weeks they are number one in

537
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 3: EPA per play, ahead of Cleveland, and they had another

538
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 3: really good performance against the Cardinals today. Seattle wins by

539
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 3: double digits despite three turnovers to none. The deficit for them.

540
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 3: They have an interception at the one yard line, they

541
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 3: have to settle for a fuel goal at the one

542
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 3: yard line. This was a dominant defensive formance and Seattle

543
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 3: should have won by a lot more. I think the

544
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 3: offense holds up as long as the line protects them,

545
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 3: but it's the defense that's the mismatch. Seattle is number

546
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 3: one in run DVA defense. That's Cleveland's identity. That's the

547
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 3: one thing the Browns want to try to do. So

548
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,439
Speaker 3: if Seattle takes that away, uh oh, now it's Deshaun

549
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 3: Watson or PG Walker. I don't know who it is.

550
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 3: I don't know if Cleveland even has a quarter back,

551
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,439
Speaker 3: but it's got to be one of them. Seattle really

552
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 3: is better than the numbers have looked so far. They're

553
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 3: falling short in the red zone and on a third down. Historically,

554
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 3: those things tend to even out over the season, and

555
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 3: the Browns defense has been elite at those items. Maybe

556
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 3: we get some regression in our favor both ways on

557
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 3: this one. Give me Seattle minus two and a half.

558
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 3: It was one and a half Sunday morning. I think

559
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 3: we can hit the key number. As we start to

560
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 3: panic a bit about the Browns quarterback situation, so hot

561
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 3: breeds for a week eight Seahawks minus two and a

562
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 3: half against the Browns and then I just win baby

563
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 3: Teaser Ravens minus eight at the Cardinals, Lions minus seven

564
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 3: and a half Monday Night Football against the Raiders.

565
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 1: Back to you guys, Thank you Brandon, and now let's

566
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: talk Chargers Chiefs. Chiefs win and cover as five and

567
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 1: a half point home favorites over the Chargers, but again

568
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: another under hits forty nine and a half Taylor's and

569
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 1: those Taylor Swift in the game. She seems to be

570
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: at every home game now. And I feel like Travis

571
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 1: Kelsey he k new Taylor Swift was in the house too,

572
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: because he had one hundred and forty two receiving yards

573
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 1: in the first time he scored a touchdown. Again. For me,

574
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 1: I expected to be a little more excited from this game. Honestly,

575
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 1: I feel like I was just pretty let down by

576
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: the Chargers offense.

577
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 2: It's kind of sad like I had money on the

578
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 2: Chargers in this game. I had the six. They were

579
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 2: down seven for it felt like three quarters. He felt

580
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 2: like the cover was coming about four or five times,

581
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 2: and then it just felt like the fanos meme. It

582
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:32,719
Speaker 2: was just like, the Chiefs are inevitable.

583
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 1: And it's just inevitable.

584
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 2: It's just honestly insane. And I'll throw some chief stats

585
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 2: out in a second. But the one thing that caught

586
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 2: my eye just looking at updated MVP odds, Mahomes plus

587
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 2: two sixty favorite next is to a four to one,

588
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 2: Hurts five to one, Lamar seven to one. So those

589
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 2: are your new top four. But Mahomes again atop the

590
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: leader board, and the thing that's been getting me and

591
00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 2: let me see if I have these yeah, Chiefs covered

592
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 2: like five of the last six games. Uh, they've been

593
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 2: like really good at covering lately. And I think a

594
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: lot of teams, a lot of people who naturally believe,

595
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 2: you know, big favorites this and that they've been covering

596
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 2: some numbers. And I think it has a lot to

597
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 2: do with their defense. The defense look a lot better today.

598
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 1: Now.

599
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 2: I know there's a lot you can blame on Herbert,

600
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 2: but when Kansas City is playing this type of defense,

601
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 2: and just like Philly was, they're okay, like sitting on

602
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 2: it at the end of games and just getting out

603
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 2: the door. And when I tell you, Mahomes home unders

604
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 2: twelve and three in his last fifteen I kind.

605
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: Of understood what happened in this game because the factor,

606
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: like at halftime, dude, we had forty one points. Imagine

607
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: betting the over forty one points between these two teams,

608
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 1: and then you lose, you know, like the fact that

609
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: we just needed one more score. You figured this is

610
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: going to just keep going forever, you know, and then

611
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 1: you don't see another score until three and a half

612
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: minutes left in the fourth quarter. You know, just to me,

613
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: that was unbelievable.

614
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 2: And just a few other stats that just kind of

615
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 2: blow me away. In this scenario, mahomes now seventeen and

616
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 2: zero straight up at home against under five hundred team,

617
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 2: so when he's supposed to win, they're in arrowhead. Always

618
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 2: tends to happen. And then Herbert, we talked about this.

619
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: I believe they were shut out in the second half. Unbelievable,

620
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: couldn't get a point. Herbert now sixteen thirty seven and five.

621
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 2: You're at sixteen thirty seven and five against the second

622
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,959
Speaker 2: half spread in his career one four and one this season,

623
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 2: six six and ten, last year, five and twelve, the

624
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 2: year before, you know, three four years down the line,

625
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 2: it's not just you know, habitstance. It's a pattern, so tough.

626
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 1: Second, it's a decent samfle now yeaeah. And the other

627
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 1: thing too that I would say Evan is like that

628
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 1: chief secondary in their pass defense you alluded to it.

629
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: They were incredible today, Like they really shut down Keenan

630
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 1: Allen after all the games that he's been having over

631
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: the last few weeks. They only allowed eleven passing first

632
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 1: downs by the Chargers they average around eighteen per game.

633
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 1: Most of that was in the first half, Like eight

634
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 1: of those eleven first downs were in the first half,

635
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: So in the second half, you're right on point, the

636
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: Chargers could get nothing going. And really you have to

637
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: give credit to that chief secondary and really their defense.

638
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 2: As a whole. Definitely.

639
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 1: So Lions Ravens, let's move on to that game. Now,

640
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 1: this one was kind of a snoozer depending on your POV.

641
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 1: But Ravens went thirty eight to six. What are the

642
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 1: few overs we do get with the forty three and

643
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: a half total, just barely getting over the total there

644
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 1: with the Ravens covering very easily as three and a

645
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: half point favorites, Lamar Jackson against the NFC is pretty

646
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: much free money at this point, sixteen and one straight

647
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 1: up versus the NFC, and he's got the Cardinals.

648
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 2: Next week, he's at Arizona and then he's facing Seattle,

649
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 2: so back to back to back NFC games, so maybe

650
00:32:56,200 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 2: they can keep extending that streak. This was just you know,

651
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 2: everybody all week who are like, Baltimore is the right side,

652
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 2: Baltimore is the right side, GoF outdoors, all the wind,

653
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 2: just he's you know, he turns into a different quarterback.

654
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: I get it. Like the crazy thing is this, And

655
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 2: you know, I gamble with my eyes. I use numbers.

656
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 2: It's like what I see is what I see, and

657
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 2: I see he's just a completely different quarterback outdoors than

658
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 2: he is inside the dome, especially now in Detroit. But

659
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 2: it's crazy if you look at the numbers. So Goff

660
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: is actually twenty three seventeen and one straight up on

661
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 2: the road outdoors, and and he's even five five and

662
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 2: one straight up in outdoors sub forty degrees, so it's

663
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 2: about a five hundred proposition either way. I think it's

664
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 2: just the fact that he's twenty eight and fourteen indoors

665
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 2: eighteen and six against the spread last two seasons, both

666
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 2: ats numbers. It's just he's a different player in that situation,

667
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 2: and today the Churches are completely outplayed, like on multiple levels.

668
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 2: I think you'd said four straight drives. You know, Baltimore

669
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 2: covers the first quarter, first half, it was just just

670
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: a blowout and Detroit couldn't get anything going.

671
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, you alluded to that Ravens first quarter spread. Result,

672
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 1: the Ravens have now outscored opponents fifty five to six,

673
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: crazy through seven games. It's incredible. So just keep that

674
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 1: in mind for Ravens first quarter spreads. But the Jared Goffing,

675
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 1: I want to expand on that a little bit more

676
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 1: because since the start of last year, and really since

677
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 1: the middle of last year, where the Lions have almost

678
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 1: been anointed as this up and coming team, I think

679
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: it just we could buckle it down right down to

680
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 1: home and away splits as much as it's more inside

681
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 1: outside because when he's at home, we see the spread.

682
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,240
Speaker 1: He's the most profitable quarterback at home over the probably

683
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 1: in the last few years. But same thing. His stats

684
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 1: reflect that too, thirty touchdowns to ten or receptions since

685
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 1: the start of last year at home. But then you

686
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 1: look at his road splits and it's about ten to ten.

687
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: It's about one touchdown for every interception. His completion percentage drops,

688
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,919
Speaker 1: his yards drops. It's not something that we're just making

689
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 1: up out of the blue. This is something that is

690
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 1: really happening. And I think we kind of got lost

691
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 1: in track of that because of the game that they

692
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 1: had against the Packers earlier this season. But Lamar, you

693
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: alluded to it as well, just with MVP odds. He

694
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,240
Speaker 1: looked like MVP today, like first half seventeen for twenty

695
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 1: one from the field, three touchdowns, he ran for a touchdown,

696
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 1: you know, and the Lions they looked away like they

697
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: were out of it immediately, mental mistakes. Really, what this

698
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: game reminded me of is Cowboys forty nine ers from

699
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago when he was just laid

700
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: it dead and the forty nine ers were pretty much

701
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 1: just on top of them immediately.

702
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 2: To me, that's interesting. Ravens nine point one yards per

703
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 2: play today against the Detroit That is the highest in

704
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 2: franchise history. Couldn't find another game Baltimore had that high.

705
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 2: So one of the best offensive games you've ever seen

706
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 2: in Baltimore. And I think a lot of people might

707
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: look at Detroit as a bounce back next week, so

708
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 2: at home Monday night football against the Raiders, where I

709
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 2: don't think we know you know, the Raiders quarterback situation yet.

710
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 2: It could be Koyer, could be Garoppolo. But interesting thing

711
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 2: is goff eight and twelve and one straight up after

712
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 2: a loss with Detroit. So hasn't been just that simple.

713
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 2: So we'll see, all right.

714
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 1: Now, Falcons Buccaneers, This one we won't take too much

715
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 1: time on. But again, I really just want to talk

716
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 1: about how awful Desmond ridder is as a quarterback. Even

717
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 1: though the Falcons do win sixteen to thirteen and win

718
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 1: on the road, Bucks do not cover hiss home favorites

719
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: as two and a half point home favorites with the

720
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 1: over under at thirty seven and a half. Desmond Ridder Man,

721
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 1: I'm going to talk a little bit more about his

722
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 1: stats in a second, but from an atspov four to

723
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 1: zero against the spread versus the a NFC South in

724
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 1: his career oh and seven against the spread against any other.

725
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:52,840
Speaker 2: Team, this is like such an impossible game to watch

726
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,800
Speaker 2: if you had money on either side. No team wanted

727
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 2: to win, no quarterback, no wanted to win, and the

728
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 2: you know, the winner of the game and led the

729
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 2: NFC South. So it was just very infuriating. I think

730
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 2: I probably prefer Baker Mayfield. Then I do dismon Desmond

731
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 2: Ritter right now I think Mayfield.

732
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 4: Yeah.

733
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 2: It's just like, and the thing is, when you look

734
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 2: at that the rest of that division, those are probably

735
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 2: your best teams. Like we just saw Derek Carr fall apart. Again,

736
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 2: Carolina hasn't had a win yet. It's just you're gonna

737
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 2: find one of these teams in the playoffs. Atlanta seems

738
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 2: to have the best pieces, but a quarterback that can't

739
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,280
Speaker 2: stop fumbling over himself.

740
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: And I mean the best pieces. They won't even let

741
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 1: be Jon Robinson on the field, Like, I mean, I

742
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: know that he was sick.

743
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, what was he said?

744
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,439
Speaker 1: That to me is a big story from this game

745
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 1: because he was not on the injury report. There were

746
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 1: no mentions of him being injured or anything like that.

747
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 1: And then we're sitting there in the first half and like, Okay,

748
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 1: where's Bijon Tyler Algiers getting all the carries? Cornell Robert

749
00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 1: Patterson rather is coming in here, and I just was

750
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 1: getting really confused. They did clarify later on, but again,

751
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: why are you spending such high picks on Jon and

752
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts, and just those kinds of picks like that

753
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 1: is really what sets a franchise back if you're not

754
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 1: going to use them. And then you have Desmond Ritter

755
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:21,439
Speaker 1: who is in scoring position and gets stripsacked twice. Two

756
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 1: Falcons touchdowns called back and overturned at the goal line.

757
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 1: It's like you alluded to this. It's off of football

758
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 1: to watch, and it's even worse to bet on. So

759
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 1: you know, to me, I don't really want to talk

760
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: too much more about the Falcons, Bucks, so please end

761
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: it for me so we can move on to the

762
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 1: next game.

763
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm good, aside for the fact that Atlanta plays

764
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 2: Tennessee next week, Tennessee coming off of bye, I have

765
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 2: no idea what to make of that game. I think

766
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 2: it's a pick him for a reason. And Tampa Bay

767
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 2: and Buffalo Thursday night football. I think that's a lot

768
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 2: of points. I mean, maybe Baker can cover this. It's

769
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 2: like seven and a half right now. Look ahead was ten, so.

770
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, And the way that Baker's been throwing the ball,

771
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:03,800
Speaker 1: I mean he still was able to complete a touchdown

772
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,880
Speaker 1: to Mike Evans who's probably the best wide receiver he's

773
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,399
Speaker 1: ever played with in his career. So they still look

774
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 1: like they have a connection. They might be able to

775
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 1: exploit that on that Bill's secondary. All right, Cardinals Seahawks.

776
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 1: Seahawks win twenty to ten. They do cover as nine

777
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites, even though their star wide

778
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 1: receiver DK Metcalf did get ruled out just before kickoff.

779
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 1: Did not move the line at all. I don't think

780
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: it needed to, but the over under was at forty

781
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 1: four and a half. The total did go under. But

782
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 1: this feisty Cardinals team, man, they are always in the game.

783
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 1: Seahawks up seventeen to ten, they look like they're about

784
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 1: to go up twenty four to ten, and then you

785
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: see this Geno interception in the red zone plus one

786
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 1: eighty in interception by the way, thank you for that,

787
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: and then a Gdo fumble in the fourth quarter. But

788
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,919
Speaker 1: the Cardinals get three turnovers and they only get three

789
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:54,760
Speaker 1: points out of it. To me, that was the story

790
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:56,320
Speaker 1: of the game. And they gave up that late field

791
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 1: goal to give the Seahawks the cover.

792
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, just a frustrating if you had Seattle, They're just

793
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 2: it just never should have been this close. Gino made

794
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 2: multiple mistakes and it just was sloppy. Overall, Arizona hasn't

795
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 2: looked the same over the last few weeks. You know,

796
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 2: I believe they started three and zero against the spread

797
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 2: and since then just can't find any anything on offense.

798
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 2: Uh here's a fun nugget I looked up. So Cardinals

799
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 2: won the turnover battle three zero in this game, and

800
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:28,320
Speaker 2: they were nine point underdogs. So teams is seven point

801
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 2: underdogs are higher who were plus three or better in

802
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,720
Speaker 2: the turnover battle. Where one hundred and sixty five six

803
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 2: and three against the spread in the wildcard era since

804
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety. So this loss from Arizona's point of view

805
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,399
Speaker 2: is just you need to point, You need to figure

806
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 2: out a way to get some points on the board.

807
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 2: You got three lucky balls on your side, didn't turn

808
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 2: over the ball, and you still couldn't muster it. So

809
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:53,280
Speaker 2: just a just a brutal game.

810
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 1: And now the Seahawks coming up there two and a

811
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 1: half point favorites hosting Cleveland. We don't know whether or

812
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: not Deshaun Watson's gonna play, probably not, probably gonna be. PJ.

813
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,280
Speaker 1: Walker would be shocked to see if that line stays

814
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 1: at two and a half, might go up to three

815
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 1: three and a half depending on the quarterback situation for

816
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 1: Cleveland Steers Rams. Nice little outright win by the Steelers

817
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 1: on the road. They win twenty four to seventeen, with

818
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: the Rams being three point home favorites. The total does

819
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: go under a forty four. I mean, Pickett finally looked

820
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 1: impressive in an NFL game the preseason that doesn't count

821
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 1: like this is an actual NFL game. He actually looked impressive.

822
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 1: And this is a very convincing fourth quarter drive. It

823
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:35,759
Speaker 1: was seventeen seventeen. Tie drolled them down the field for

824
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 1: a touchdown. But really the story for me, and maybe

825
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 1: I'm just as a jaded Cowboys fan, I'm glad the

826
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:45,359
Speaker 1: Rams got to have the full Brett Maher experience. So

827
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 1: two miss field goals, missed extra point, it's pretty much

828
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: the difference in the score pretty much. Once he missed

829
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 1: that extra point where they were gonna go up ten

830
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 1: to three, and then he missed the extra point, I

831
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 1: knew it was gonna be a bad day for him

832
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 1: and now the Steelers. Though, something to keep in mind

833
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 1: if you're ever seeing them maybe trailing at half they've

834
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 1: been down in multiple first halves this season have come

835
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 1: back to win, so games that they weren't favored in either,

836
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:13,439
Speaker 1: like the Browns Ravens and the Rams game now where

837
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 1: they've been trailing at half and come back to win.

838
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 1: But TJ. Watt we talked about Miles Garrett and that

839
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 1: Browns game, TJ. Watt with an unreal interception to set

840
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 1: up a Steelers touchdown. But I think another story that

841
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: was really a big takeaway for me from this game was,

842
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 1: and it's been ongoing, is how the Rams have really

843
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 1: no home field advantage when they're playing a very popular team.

844
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: It really felt like it was a home game for

845
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 1: the Steelers. Like when Jalen Warren scored that touchdown, you

846
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 1: would have thought it was heinz Field with that loud cheer.

847
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,839
Speaker 2: And the thing that's funny was is that you give

848
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 2: Tomlin like certain things on the road. Like here's a

849
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 2: fun stat I looked up before we came on, so

850
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 2: Pickett's only thrown one interception his last six road games.

851
00:42:56,880 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 2: It's just really hard to beat Tomlin when not turning

852
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 2: over the ball, playing decent defense. You know, Maher's kicking

853
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,320
Speaker 2: it all over the place. Like you're giving him free points.

854
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 2: They're gonna probably find a way. And then everyone's favorite

855
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 2: dog stat. So Tomlin now forty seven forty five straight out,

856
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 2: fifty seven, thirty one and four against a spread as

857
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 2: an underdog in his career. And then Matt Stafford, he

858
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 2: just figured out a way again this morning on convinced me.

859
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:26,800
Speaker 2: I gave out this stat and it ended up actually

860
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: coming through. So Rams led nine to three at the

861
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 2: half and ended up losing twenty four to seventeen. So

862
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 2: Stafford now is thirty one, fifty six and two against

863
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 2: a second half spread when leaving when leading. He's lost

864
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 2: nine straight regular season games in this spot, so just

865
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 2: absolutely brutal. They just and he's about five hundred across

866
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 2: the board second half ats when he's trailing, but for

867
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 2: some reason can't come up with the offense. And here

868
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:58,400
Speaker 2: it was a mess. They had multiple opportunities to kind

869
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 2: of lock it away, yep, and Pittsburgh found a way

870
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:03,879
Speaker 2: in the end. The fun one year is also road

871
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 2: Unders in these games, good defense and they just figure

872
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 2: out a way to go right under it. Eighty fifty

873
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 2: nine and one for Tomlin road Unders, best of any coach. Wow,

874
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 2: fifty five and one last decade. Wow, just wild stuff.

875
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 2: And then the thing you're gonna hear about all week

876
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:25,480
Speaker 2: again is just the wild numbers from Pookah Pooka Nakula.

877
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Pooka Nakula man wild. I think the main thing

878
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: that I would take away from that is the Rams

879
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: to me might have overtaken the Steelers as the best team.

880
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 1: With I with like an eye on wide receiver talent

881
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:40,359
Speaker 1: late in the draft, Cooper Cup was a third fourth

882
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 1: round pick. Pooka Nakua, same thing. He looks like a

883
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 1: top five wide receiver right now. Clearly was picking up

884
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,839
Speaker 1: the slack because they completely shut down Cooper Cup two

885
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 1: catches for twenty nine yards. He had nine catches for

886
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 1: like one hundred and fifty yards. Just looked incredible. Uh,

887
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 1: with the rookie out of BYU, I've got a few

888
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:00,760
Speaker 1: games left, let's run through these quick Raiders Bears. Bears

889
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 1: went thirty to twelve, one of the few overs of

890
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 1: the day, and the Raiders lose as road favorites as

891
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites, because honestly, I was shocked.

892
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 1: Dev and Brian Hoyer hadn't been a road favorite since

893
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 1: twenty fourteen with the Browns, and all I could think

894
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 1: to myself is imagine making Brian Hoyer a road favorite

895
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three. Like what league is this? So

896
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,760
Speaker 1: I think McDaniels is probably gonna get fired soon. Aidan

897
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: O'Connell comes in Raiders immediately score a touchdown. He's all

898
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: cage in the press postgame press conference about how this

899
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,840
Speaker 1: isn't pre season anymore. You know, Jimmy Garoppolo is expected

900
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 1: next week. But another takeaway too, Tyson Baijeen. They said

901
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 1: on the broadcast that he won the Division two Heisman

902
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:48,439
Speaker 1: Trophy for out of his school. But you look pretty

903
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,240
Speaker 1: good justin fields. He might be out of a job,

904
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 1: you know, as the season goes. But at the same time,

905
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 1: they've got a lot of invested in justin fields. But

906
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 1: it's good to know that Tyson Baje could come in

907
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 1: and look like a competent quarterback. Commanders Giants. Giants went

908
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,440
Speaker 1: fourteen to seven total goes under a thirty seven, but

909
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 1: the Commanders lose I right as three point favorites. Giants

910
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 1: are now eight and two against the spread in their

911
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:13,799
Speaker 1: last ten games versus the Commanders, and yeah, the Sam

912
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 1: Sam Howe. The sack numbers, Evan, please elaborate. You tweeted

913
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:20,240
Speaker 1: about this earlier. It is getting out of control.

914
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I believe right now he has forty sacks. He

915
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:30,879
Speaker 2: had six today and he is three off pace through

916
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 2: seven games. And it's you know, every time you see

917
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 2: this list, it's David Carr, Sam Howell, David Carr so

918
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 2: two thousand and five, two thousand and two with the Texans.

919
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 2: But six sacks today against a Giants team who doesn't

920
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:44,840
Speaker 2: get pressure.

921
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 1: Oh boy, the Giants come into this game they only

922
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,959
Speaker 1: had five sacks for the season. Well, they had five

923
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:53,760
Speaker 1: sacks in the first half. Like, that's how crappy right now?

924
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 1: This Commander's offensive line is Yeah. Let's wrap this up though.

925
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 1: Packers Broncos probably the snows of the day. Broncos win

926
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:04,839
Speaker 1: nineteen to seventeen, but the Packers do lose his one

927
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 1: point favorites. This game flipped back and forth between Packers

928
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 1: and Broncos all week going through zero, but the underhits

929
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 1: of forty five. I'll be honest with you, Evan, I

930
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 1: feel like Kevin Harlan was trying to make this game

931
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 1: more exciting than it actually was because the court and

932
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:23,759
Speaker 1: Sutton he catches this touchdown, you would have thought it

933
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 1: was a Kobe Bryant dunk from two thousand and three. Like,

934
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 1: ah just sucked the gravity out of the building. Like

935
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 1: that's what it felt like. It was just like it

936
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 1: was just a regular touchdown. Obviously a good touchdown, but

937
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,919
Speaker 1: like this game was awful really, Like the only other

938
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 1: notable thing to take away from this game is the

939
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 1: Broncos quarterback Kareem Jackson. He should probably be thrown out

940
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 1: of the league at this point, man, because this is

941
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:48,240
Speaker 1: the fourth time this season that he's got a defensive

942
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 1: defenseless player penalty and it has been thrown out of

943
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 1: two games now. It's kind of getting out of control.

944
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 1: It kind of reminds me of pac Man Jones back

945
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 1: in the day. But yeah, that's probably the biggest takeaway

946
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:01,880
Speaker 1: is that the Broncos do win and they had to

947
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:05,440
Speaker 1: almost capitate a guy to do it. The fall season

948
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 1: is in full swing, which means if you're like us,

949
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:10,120
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950
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953
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954
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959
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960
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961
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962
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963
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964
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 1: we're gonna check in with Patrick Everson with Vegas Insider

965
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 1: to see how Sportsbook's fair to Las Vegas for week seven.

966
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 1: Thanks a lot, Jill.

967
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was another interesting day in Las Vegas, and

968
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 4: not necessarily on the better's side of the betting window.

969
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 4: I had one odds maker tell me as the Bills

970
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 4: game was unwinding against the Patriots and he was talking

971
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,359
Speaker 4: about the Kansas City Chiefs game. He's like, we've got

972
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 4: tons of moneyline parlays running to the Chiefs. We are

973
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 4: going to need the Chargers in that game really good,

974
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:30,880
Speaker 4: unless Buffalo doesn't come back and win this game against

975
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:34,279
Speaker 4: the Patriots. Buffalo came back, got the lead, did not

976
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 4: win the game against the Patriots, though, so that blew

977
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 4: up tons of not only moneyline parlays, but also teasers

978
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,840
Speaker 4: as well that were running to Buffalo. So that was

979
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 4: a big result behind the counter for most books, including

980
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 4: bet MGM, which was seeing pretty hefty action on Buffalo.

981
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 1: So BETMGM down did well to that.

982
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 4: Several other odds makers noted that they did do well

983
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 4: to that, But there's always an exception to the rule,

984
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 4: and we had one odds maker here in Vegas all

985
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 4: time oddsmaker said, believe it or not, we had a

986
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 4: lot of money on the dog on the Patriots in

987
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 4: that Buffalo game.

988
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 2: He said.

989
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:09,839
Speaker 4: It wound up being okay with the Bills losing out right,

990
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 4: he said, but if the Bills had come back and

991
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 4: won but not covered, which is how it was looking,

992
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 4: it might shake out near the end there, he said, we.

993
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 1: Would have lost.

994
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 4: He said, I just got flooded with dog money. We

995
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 4: needed the favorite, which was definitely an unusual situation. But

996
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 4: it goes to show that it's not always the same

997
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 4: at every book. Yes, the public tends to be on

998
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:30,279
Speaker 4: certain teams heavily from week to week to week, but

999
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,479
Speaker 4: every now and then there's some variants from one book

1000
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:35,360
Speaker 4: to another. And in this case, an odds maker actually

1001
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:37,480
Speaker 4: would have done pretty poorly if the Bills had managed

1002
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:40,759
Speaker 4: to win but not cover there did okay to the

1003
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 4: Bills losing, but not as good as some of these

1004
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 4: other books who were literally raving about this win. And

1005
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 4: speaking of raving, let's go to the Ravens who just

1006
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 4: whitewashed the Detroit Lions today. Detroit is the public darling, now.

1007
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:54,640
Speaker 4: I mean, this is a team that went into Week

1008
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:57,799
Speaker 4: seven over the last sixteen regular season games, which is

1009
00:50:57,800 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 4: their last sixteen games because they didn't make the playoffs,

1010
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 4: thirteen and three straight up, fourteen and two against a spread,

1011
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 4: just absolute scorching hot and atm for betters and got hammered,

1012
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 4: just ran into a bus saw at Baltimore. That was

1013
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:13,800
Speaker 4: another really good result behind the counter for most books,

1014
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:17,120
Speaker 4: because again, the public has definitely been on Detroit, liking

1015
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:18,799
Speaker 4: Detroit a lot, probably going to be on them again

1016
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 4: in Week eight I'll get to that in a little

1017
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 4: bit here. So those were a couple of results early

1018
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:26,360
Speaker 4: that definitely went very much in the books favor the

1019
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 4: Chiefs game. Obviously, the public's going to be all over

1020
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,719
Speaker 4: the Chiefs, so the public did well there. But the

1021
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 4: Chiefs were in moneyline parleys and teasers that probably evolved

1022
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 4: or were connected to, I should say that Bills game.

1023
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 4: So a lot of the as I noted earlier, a

1024
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 4: lot of the Chiefs money line parley's and teasers got

1025
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 4: blown up, even though the Chiefs covered and had not

1026
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 4: too much trouble winning against the Chargers in that late window.

1027
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 4: This night game, it's been really interesting the Sunday night

1028
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:55,800
Speaker 4: game between the Eagles and the Dolphins. Two really great teams,

1029
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 4: two very public teams, and there were multiple books saying

1030
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 4: they got a really good two way action BEDAMGM was

1031
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 4: in an interesting spot. Seemed heavy to the Eagles on

1032
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 4: the spread and to the Dolphins on the money line.

1033
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 4: So perhaps ideally, especially with moneyline teasers and parlay's, probably

1034
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 4: getting blown up by the time you got Sunday night,

1035
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 4: or perhaps getting blown up maybe in the situation that's

1036
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 4: not unusual, and that's where they need the favorite to

1037
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 4: win and the underdog to cover, so that maybe the

1038
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 4: position they ended up in there Monday night. Look, you're

1039
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 4: not going to get people out the forty nine ers,

1040
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:31,279
Speaker 4: even with that loss last week at Cleveland, and I

1041
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:33,960
Speaker 4: know earlier on you know, on Sunday at betam Gym.

1042
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 4: Most of the money comes in on this game on Monday,

1043
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 4: but it was very heavy spread tickets and money at

1044
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 4: least percentage wise, very heavy to the forty nine ers,

1045
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 4: not hesitating to pull the trigger even though no Deebo

1046
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 4: Samuel and Christian McCaffrey perhaps maybe a little bit limited,

1047
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 4: but it looks like he's going to go. So they're

1048
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 4: certainly going to be Vikings fans tomorrow night. And bonus everybody,

1049
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 4: we'd get to look ahead to next week because you know,

1050
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 4: the NFL stopped for nobody, and obviously the odds are

1051
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 4: already up for NFL Week eight. I think the one

1052
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 4: thing that's interesting coming out of the gate, it's not

1053
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:10,319
Speaker 4: the most intriguing game, although I believe it is a

1054
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 4: primetime game. I think in fact, it might be the

1055
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:16,280
Speaker 4: Monday night game between the Raiders and the and the Lions,

1056
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 4: and that is that the Lions after getting decimated by

1057
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 4: Baltimore thirty eight to six and the Raiders completely embarrassing

1058
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:26,360
Speaker 4: loss to a quarterback nobody has ever heard of. The

1059
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 4: Lions opened seven and this is already on the move

1060
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:30,919
Speaker 4: you on Sunday night, this went from seven to seven

1061
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 4: and a half. With one odds maker that I spoke

1062
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 4: with and he termed it one way traffic on the Lions,

1063
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:37,640
Speaker 4: and he says, I don't expect this to change as

1064
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 4: Detroit is a very public team. And even though they

1065
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 4: got blown out, so did the Raiders, and the Raiders

1066
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 4: did so against a much worse team. Everybody agrees that

1067
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 4: Baltimore is a pretty good outfleit, so that's the one

1068
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:51,960
Speaker 4: gem to look at. Already, some early movement on that

1069
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:54,439
Speaker 4: game in the week eight odds market Lions from seven

1070
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:55,280
Speaker 4: to seven and a half.

1071
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Speaker 1: Early throw it back to you, Jille, thanks a lot,

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00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 1: Thank you Patrick, and thank you for listening to the

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Speaker 1: Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM. Enjoy Monday Night Football.

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00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:06,399
Speaker 1: Keep an eye out for all of our NFL Week

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00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: A podcasts right here on the Action Network.

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00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

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00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:32,320
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem help is

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00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler