1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

2
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:11,320
Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so

3
00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:18,640
Speaker 1: smoothe so sweet, slipid sisting, just glorious execution. Guys, all

4
00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:22,040
Speaker 1: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent

5
00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:22,480
Speaker 1: of the time.

6
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:24,200
Speaker 2: How shot with that?

7
00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,480
Speaker 1: Shop with find bit buddy, And that's why you see

8
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,400
Speaker 1: your beautiful tiers.

9
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

10
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,600
Speaker 3: Nobody picture them.

11
00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:43,520
Speaker 1: Shut up. I'm trying again. The love it's left too,

12
00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:50,040
Speaker 1: the wide eyed drill fiffus, How old earth big that happens?

13
00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,840
Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to another episode of Wonder Goal, presented

14
00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:57,800
Speaker 1: by the Action Network. I am your host today, BJ Cunningham.

15
00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,760
Speaker 1: For all of you yelling at whatever device you're listening

16
00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,680
Speaker 1: to this podcast on, our illustrious host Michael Leeboff will

17
00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:07,399
Speaker 1: be back for next episode, so save your complaints. You'll

18
00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:11,040
Speaker 1: get your usual host back next episode for the Champions League.

19
00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:13,800
Speaker 1: But it'll be myself and Anthony Dubundo today taking you

20
00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:17,679
Speaker 1: across the European continent, breaking down the entire weekend slate.

21
00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:20,600
Speaker 1: We're gonna start in the Premier League. We have nine

22
00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:23,360
Speaker 1: matches Chelsea and Arsenal are off, so Chelsea can continue

23
00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:27,120
Speaker 1: to play in the FIFA Club World Cup. It's an

24
00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:29,720
Speaker 1: interesting slate similar to the midweek where we don't have

25
00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,120
Speaker 1: one big match. None of the top seven teams are

26
00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,160
Speaker 1: playing against each other, so we're gonna go in chronological

27
00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:38,919
Speaker 1: order and it starts on Saturday morning at seven thirty

28
00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:44,320
Speaker 1: am Eastern Time. Manchester United is hosting Southampton at Old Trafford.

29
00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,480
Speaker 1: Manchester United is a minus one to eighty favorite, Southampton

30
00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,920
Speaker 1: sitting at plus five hundred with the draw at plus

31
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,080
Speaker 1: three thirty. This is a really interesting matchup. Southampton coming

32
00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,600
Speaker 1: off a huge win on Wednesday, scoring two late goals

33
00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,720
Speaker 1: to beat Tottenham. Manchester United drew with Burnley at Turf Moore.

34
00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,400
Speaker 1: Probably should have gotten a result. Anthony, do you think

35
00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,680
Speaker 1: that Southampton performance can carry over into this match against

36
00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,240
Speaker 1: Al Trafford And do you think the Saints are live

37
00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,000
Speaker 1: dogs at Old Trafford?

38
00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:10,200
Speaker 2: I do you know?

39
00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,799
Speaker 3: It was interesting because I was watching the game today

40
00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,920
Speaker 3: against Tottenham and Spurs played poorly. They were loose with

41
00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:20,360
Speaker 3: the ball, they gave it away in dangerous areas. Southampton

42
00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,639
Speaker 3: had fifteen shots to two in the first half. It

43
00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,040
Speaker 3: was one to one those two shots from Tottenham were

44
00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,600
Speaker 3: pretty dangerous ones. They'd still conceded the big chances just

45
00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:29,760
Speaker 3: of course the major worry with that defense, the way

46
00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,680
Speaker 3: that they press. But fifteen shots to two says a

47
00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,840
Speaker 3: lot about how that match went. They went, you know,

48
00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,640
Speaker 3: Spurs were better in the second half and then again

49
00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,720
Speaker 3: as soon as Southampton went and equalized, it looked like

50
00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:41,880
Speaker 3: they were going to be the team that went on

51
00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:42,200
Speaker 3: to win.

52
00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:44,520
Speaker 2: Then there was almost even more late drama with var

53
00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:45,040
Speaker 2: at the end.

54
00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,640
Speaker 3: It was a really you know, a classic Barclays classic

55
00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,560
Speaker 3: Premier League match, really a lot of fun unless you're

56
00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,119
Speaker 3: a Spurs fan. But I think they're absolutely live here

57
00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:57,399
Speaker 3: and it's a relatively similar matchup against a team who

58
00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,360
Speaker 3: is supposed to be better than them and is lined

59
00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:01,680
Speaker 3: right around that mind. This one to eighty number United in.

60
00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:04,640
Speaker 2: Spurs power rated pretty similarly for me right now.

61
00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:06,680
Speaker 3: I show a little bit of value on Saints, then

62
00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:10,200
Speaker 3: I show value on Saints now as well, and with

63
00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,280
Speaker 3: them being upgraded even after this performance today. The big

64
00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:16,480
Speaker 3: thing here is that United has this first half second

65
00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:18,720
Speaker 3: half pattern that they like to do where they come

66
00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,200
Speaker 3: out and they're clearly improved. We saw that in the

67
00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,600
Speaker 3: first half against aston Villa a couple of weeks ago.

68
00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:25,639
Speaker 3: We saw that in the first half in their last

69
00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,639
Speaker 3: game on Tuesday against Burnley. They're playing better, and they're

70
00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:30,919
Speaker 3: pressing better and they're dominating games. They had twelve shots

71
00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,280
Speaker 3: to zero in the first half against Burnley. They probably

72
00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:35,720
Speaker 3: should have been up two goals, maybe even you could

73
00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:39,240
Speaker 3: argue three. There were some controversial calls with var and

74
00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,480
Speaker 3: some off sides that I thought were pretty harsh. But

75
00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,880
Speaker 3: then what happens is in the second half, because Ragnick

76
00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,240
Speaker 3: is new and they're not used to this intense press

77
00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,440
Speaker 3: that they've had to put on the front, guys get

78
00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,760
Speaker 3: tired and then the holes appear, and then they get

79
00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,000
Speaker 3: beaten transition and then they get exposed. And that's really

80
00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,040
Speaker 3: what Burnley did. They hung around and they waited for

81
00:03:58,120 --> 00:03:59,800
Speaker 3: United to tire out, and then they hit them in

82
00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,480
Speaker 3: this second half. That's a major issue when you're playing

83
00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,000
Speaker 3: against the Saints team who is pretty much a better

84
00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,120
Speaker 3: version of United when it comes to pressing, at least

85
00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:10,080
Speaker 3: wayless talent, but they can press effectively for ninety minutes.

86
00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:12,800
Speaker 2: They have the energy. United also has major set piece

87
00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,279
Speaker 2: issues Defensively, that's a big issue going up against James

88
00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,640
Speaker 2: Ward Prowse in Southampton. So Saints had nine point four

89
00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:22,120
Speaker 2: to eight pass per defensive action against the top six

90
00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,320
Speaker 2: team in Tottenham on Wednesday. If they do that to United,

91
00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:26,440
Speaker 2: who I think has benefited from a pretty weak schedule,

92
00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:28,560
Speaker 2: this is going to be another toss up match, I think,

93
00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,560
Speaker 2: and I'm happy to take Saints plus one and we'll

94
00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,159
Speaker 2: be doing a little money line sprinkle as well. I'm

95
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,800
Speaker 2: not sure what United's plan is. If Cavani picked up

96
00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,400
Speaker 2: a knock it looked like based on their postmatch reports.

97
00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:42,760
Speaker 2: I'd be happy if Ronaldo has to play this game

98
00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,560
Speaker 2: because he can't press. And if they're playing essentially down

99
00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:47,040
Speaker 2: a man out of possession, it's going to be very

100
00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,760
Speaker 2: hard for them in this matchup against this team who

101
00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,640
Speaker 2: has energy, can run for hours.

102
00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:54,279
Speaker 3: And I don't love the situation where United could find

103
00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:56,680
Speaker 3: themselves out of gas in the second half and getting pummeled.

104
00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:58,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree with you. I'm right here with

105
00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,279
Speaker 1: Southampton plus one. It's it's not that great of a

106
00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:03,440
Speaker 1: matchup for United. I like you said, I don't really

107
00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,080
Speaker 1: know what they're gonna do. Pogbook came back obviously for United.

108
00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,279
Speaker 1: That obviously unlocks their midfield and target parts the attacking

109
00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,000
Speaker 1: midfield and create a creative aspect of it. He obviously

110
00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,400
Speaker 1: scored the only goal. But United, like you said, they

111
00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,600
Speaker 1: benefited from a pretty easy schedule to this point, they

112
00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:19,960
Speaker 1: haven't faced a team that's going to press at the

113
00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,520
Speaker 1: rate Southampton is gonna press. You can make it an argument.

114
00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,719
Speaker 1: You know, Brentford plays the same, not type of frenetic pace,

115
00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:28,279
Speaker 1: not as frenetic as Southampton does. But if you go

116
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,520
Speaker 1: back to that match, I mean Brentford smashed United in

117
00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:33,039
Speaker 1: that first half in the press, just overwhelmed them. And

118
00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,440
Speaker 1: that's what Southampton did to Tottenham in the first half.

119
00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,039
Speaker 1: I mean, you said the numbers twenty three shots to

120
00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,919
Speaker 1: ten final Southampton Tottenam Southampton had ten shots on target

121
00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,240
Speaker 1: away from home. That's crazy and I'll be honest. I

122
00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,039
Speaker 1: put a bed in as the second half was going on,

123
00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,960
Speaker 1: right as the second goal was scored. I was probably

124
00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:52,680
Speaker 1: gonna play it anyway, but I didn't think I was

125
00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:54,760
Speaker 1: going to get essentially a better number than that point

126
00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,920
Speaker 1: right there, because I was totally convinced by the Southampton performance,

127
00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,000
Speaker 1: because we haven't really seen that that type of performance

128
00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,240
Speaker 1: from Southampton against a Big six side. They obviously have

129
00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,159
Speaker 1: drawn Manchester City twice. One time they City had a

130
00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,240
Speaker 1: red card. But man, it is hard for me to

131
00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:12,440
Speaker 1: see how United's going to be able to just play

132
00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,800
Speaker 1: right through this press consistently throughout the entire game. Southampton

133
00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:17,400
Speaker 1: has also messed around with the three to five to

134
00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:19,680
Speaker 1: two which has done really benefit them. Allowed the more

135
00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,000
Speaker 1: tactical flexibility, allow them to play five at the back

136
00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:24,520
Speaker 1: if they need to. You mentioned the set piece issues.

137
00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 1: United allowed the most expected goals of anybody in the

138
00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,719
Speaker 1: Premier League office set pieces nine point two the season.

139
00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,320
Speaker 1: Southampton has scored eight office set pieces with the best

140
00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,520
Speaker 1: free kick taker in the Premier League and Jamesport of Prows,

141
00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,520
Speaker 1: I think United's overvalued here, even though they are at home.

142
00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,360
Speaker 1: I only have them projected at minus one twenty five,

143
00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,200
Speaker 1: so I'm right there with you. I love Southampton plus

144
00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:44,719
Speaker 1: one at minus one oh five.

145
00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,240
Speaker 3: I've got them minus one forty five as well, so

146
00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:49,880
Speaker 3: I'm in agreement there. And I think one other interesting

147
00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:51,480
Speaker 3: thing that we can move on up to this is

148
00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,280
Speaker 3: how much does United having to play the extra midweek

149
00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:56,920
Speaker 3: match with the squad that is now a little bit

150
00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,200
Speaker 3: thinner now because of injuries and a few other absences,

151
00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:02,200
Speaker 3: how much are they able to recover, whereas you'd expect

152
00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,400
Speaker 3: Saints to potentially be you know, the fitter and more

153
00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:09,080
Speaker 3: ready to press side. Also, Saints have been really good

154
00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,320
Speaker 3: playing from behind, they have not been good with leads,

155
00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:13,440
Speaker 3: so it could be a potential live betting situation as well,

156
00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:15,560
Speaker 3: where if you can see United are starting to tire,

157
00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,200
Speaker 3: I'll probably end up maybe even adding to Southampton live absolutely.

158
00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,840
Speaker 1: Okay, let's move on to Saturday at ten am Eastern.

159
00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:28,200
Speaker 1: Let's start with Brentford hosting Crystal Palace. Brentford is plus

160
00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,360
Speaker 1: one sixty five, Crystal Palace is sitting at plus one

161
00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,600
Speaker 1: ninety with the draw a plus two to ten. A

162
00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:38,200
Speaker 1: couple interesting matches today on Wednesday from Brentford and Crystal Palace. Obviously,

163
00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,960
Speaker 1: Brentford went to City. Not a lot you can ask

164
00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,080
Speaker 1: from them as eighteen to one underdogs, but they played

165
00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,680
Speaker 1: pretty well. They fought hard. The two goals they gave

166
00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,080
Speaker 1: up one was a penalty and one you know, just

167
00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,440
Speaker 1: terrible goalkeeping air from David Raya. Crystal Palace, on the

168
00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:53,680
Speaker 1: other hand, gave up a goal inside the first minute

169
00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,600
Speaker 1: against Norwich and then completely smashed them for the rest

170
00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:58,480
Speaker 1: of the match and couldn't come away with the result

171
00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,960
Speaker 1: they deserve. This is a huge discrepancy of turn of

172
00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:07,560
Speaker 1: splits of home versus away. Brentford very good at the

173
00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:10,480
Speaker 1: Brentford Community State and plus three point two expected gold differential,

174
00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:14,680
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace on the road around minus seven expected gold differential.

175
00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,000
Speaker 1: When they're really really good at home. Immediately, you know,

176
00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:19,520
Speaker 1: that comes to mind. I say, all right, I'm gonna

177
00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:21,960
Speaker 1: take Brentford, but I'm more of leaning towards it at

178
00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,720
Speaker 1: this point. There are some you know, positive things for them,

179
00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,080
Speaker 1: but injuries are taking their toll. Ivan Tony didn't play

180
00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,240
Speaker 1: and Boyman was on the bench. It's a pretty good

181
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,600
Speaker 1: matchup if those two guys play. Brentford is a very

182
00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,560
Speaker 1: good pressing team. Crystal Palace ten's a struggle when they

183
00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,640
Speaker 1: play teams that press them at a high rate. Their

184
00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,959
Speaker 1: fifteenth in offensive pass for defensive action and Brentford has

185
00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,559
Speaker 1: forced the fourth most high turnovers in the Premier League.

186
00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,400
Speaker 1: The form is bad for Brentford. It's six straight matches

187
00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,640
Speaker 1: that they've lost, but the performances haven't been that bad,

188
00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:52,280
Speaker 1: especially against Manchester City it was encouraging and you have

189
00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,959
Speaker 1: a team under Thomas Frank that's going to play hard.

190
00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:57,960
Speaker 1: They're going to give you a full effort for all

191
00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:00,439
Speaker 1: ninety minutes. You saw that today and really they were

192
00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,640
Speaker 1: just unfortunate on two types of things. They held City

193
00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,880
Speaker 1: two point three non penalty expected goals in the first half.

194
00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:09,880
Speaker 1: That's once again, really really good defensive performance. When these

195
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:11,960
Speaker 1: two teams met at the beginning of the season, it

196
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,600
Speaker 1: was a really cagy zero zero draw. Brentford was somewhat

197
00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,040
Speaker 1: of the better side. Twenty four shot creating actions twently

198
00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,720
Speaker 1: twelve from palace and the biggest thing though is Brentford

199
00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,680
Speaker 1: had a forty one percent precious success rate in that match,

200
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,719
Speaker 1: which which can be huge if they can get the

201
00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:27,400
Speaker 1: ball from Crystal Palace and get it moving forward and

202
00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,440
Speaker 1: see if their defense can actually create some chances. So

203
00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,800
Speaker 1: I do like the Bees at home dron O Bett

204
00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:34,600
Speaker 1: at minus one point fifteen. We'll see what the injury

205
00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:36,400
Speaker 1: situation is and see if we can potentially get a

206
00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,120
Speaker 1: better price. But I'm definitely leaning towards Bredford. Where are

207
00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:40,120
Speaker 1: you going for this match?

208
00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:42,000
Speaker 2: I like Brentford quite a bit. You mentioned it.

209
00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:44,000
Speaker 3: Six straight losses. I think we're at the bottom of

210
00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:46,439
Speaker 3: the market here on Brentford, and the most interesting thing

211
00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:48,760
Speaker 3: you mentioned it the home and away splits are the

212
00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,199
Speaker 3: biggest key here. Brentford at home this season plus point

213
00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,160
Speaker 3: four to seven per ninety, Palace on the road minus

214
00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:59,160
Speaker 3: point eight per ninety. The pretty much exact mirrors are

215
00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:00,960
Speaker 3: the true when they're playing at the other stadium. So

216
00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,000
Speaker 3: Palace about plus point eight at home, Brentford's about minus

217
00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,080
Speaker 3: point four away from home. So you're getting the two

218
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,040
Speaker 3: biggest split teams in the entire league. And we don't

219
00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,440
Speaker 3: know about WESA and baynow and Tony we send them

220
00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,000
Speaker 3: Baymou came off the bench, they didn't start them. I

221
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,280
Speaker 3: think a lot of that was Frank managing his guys

222
00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,040
Speaker 3: knowing they're not going to get the result at City

223
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,200
Speaker 3: and that the weekend result is much more important.

224
00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:23,000
Speaker 2: We don't know if they're going to play or not.

225
00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:25,360
Speaker 3: I think at least one or two of them will

226
00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:27,080
Speaker 3: be back for this game, based on the fact they

227
00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,560
Speaker 3: were able to go off the bench, and so if

228
00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:31,480
Speaker 3: they're you know, we send him way more starting, which

229
00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,560
Speaker 3: is probably what i'd expect, and see Tony off the bench.

230
00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,200
Speaker 3: Maybe if he's back I'm happy to play Brentford here

231
00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,640
Speaker 3: at home. I think this matchup is really strong for them.

232
00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:40,240
Speaker 3: You mentioned it they were the better team, and that

233
00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,160
Speaker 3: was on the road, and you figure, you know the

234
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,360
Speaker 3: splits that go into that, the fact that Brentford had

235
00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,840
Speaker 3: one of its better away performances of the entire season

236
00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,480
Speaker 3: at Crystal Palace earlier this year. I think coming home now,

237
00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,000
Speaker 3: my ratings are pretty similar on these two teams, so

238
00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:54,120
Speaker 3: I'm getting pretty similar teams, but I'm getting a pick

239
00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:55,559
Speaker 3: them for the team at home, who's been one of

240
00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:57,760
Speaker 3: the best home teams in the entire league. I'm happy

241
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,480
Speaker 3: to take Brentford. Johno Bett at minus one fifteen, Yeah, I.

242
00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:00,840
Speaker 2: Agree with you.

243
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,000
Speaker 1: Plus two back to back road matches for Crystal Palace

244
00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,360
Speaker 1: is not necessarily good. Patrick firas Man, All right, let's

245
00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:10,600
Speaker 1: move on to Everton hosting Leads in a potential relegation

246
00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:12,720
Speaker 1: six pointer. As Michael would probably tell you if he

247
00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,480
Speaker 1: was hosting this right now, Everton is a plus one

248
00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 1: fifteen favorite. Leads is sitting at plus two forty with

249
00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:20,720
Speaker 1: the draw at plus two sixty. I don't really have

250
00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:22,760
Speaker 1: anything for this match. I was a little disappointed about

251
00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:27,760
Speaker 1: Everton's performance against Newcastle on Tuesday. Leads obviously had just

252
00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:31,440
Speaker 1: a chaotic three to three draw with Aston Villa on Wednesday.

253
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:33,480
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna be passing on this one. I'm pretty

254
00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,319
Speaker 1: close to what the market has. But do you have

255
00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,240
Speaker 1: anything for Everton versus Leads?

256
00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:38,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I lean towards Leads.

257
00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:41,440
Speaker 3: The reason I don't quite get there is because Everton

258
00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:43,760
Speaker 3: are you know, you're not getting the best of the

259
00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,800
Speaker 3: of the market here with Everton, clearly they've soured quite

260
00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,400
Speaker 3: a bit. I actually show a teeny tiny bit of

261
00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:52,760
Speaker 3: value on Everton at the number, but with all the

262
00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:55,640
Speaker 3: managerial change going on, and again I've talked about this

263
00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,520
Speaker 3: with Leeds numbers not quite being right on for the

264
00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,200
Speaker 3: whole season because of all the injuries they went through

265
00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,040
Speaker 3: and all those absences they had where they got absolutely

266
00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,199
Speaker 3: pounded in those games. I'm not really too confident in

267
00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,840
Speaker 3: my power rating right now for either team. And so

268
00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,960
Speaker 3: when we look at Everton, they had a five point

269
00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,520
Speaker 3: five to six passes per defensive action rating against Newcastle.

270
00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:20,320
Speaker 3: That is their season average under Rafa Benitez was over twelve.

271
00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:23,839
Speaker 3: So that just shows you the Lampard effect taking effect

272
00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:26,440
Speaker 3: where they're going to press and they're going to press

273
00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:28,679
Speaker 3: and they're going to run and look to win the

274
00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:30,480
Speaker 3: ball high at the pitch and then create chances off

275
00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,680
Speaker 3: of that. But the problem is when you're not you know,

276
00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:35,800
Speaker 3: drilled at it and effective at it and still learning

277
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:37,360
Speaker 3: the way, you can get exposed.

278
00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:38,640
Speaker 2: And that's exactly what happened.

279
00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:40,719
Speaker 3: We saw the impact that Bruno gui Mars had when

280
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,200
Speaker 3: he came on Allen Say and maximum running into space.

281
00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,720
Speaker 3: There was a couple of fluke goals too, at both

282
00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:47,679
Speaker 3: ends of the pitch really with set pieces and whatnot.

283
00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,680
Speaker 2: Those issues still remain for Everton here. They just seem

284
00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:53,840
Speaker 2: to lack the structuring and they got crushed in space.

285
00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:57,439
Speaker 2: Now you get leads, who is a matchup.

286
00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,840
Speaker 3: Nightmare if you're not prepared and ready to press an

287
00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:01,360
Speaker 3: the rate you need to be able to do it.

288
00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,440
Speaker 3: So I'm concerned about the matchup and that's why I

289
00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:07,520
Speaker 3: lean toward Leeds. We saw Chelsea play leads and I

290
00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:09,840
Speaker 3: thought it was a really interesting tactical battle. This was

291
00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,360
Speaker 3: back when Lampard was still at Chelsea and Chelsea ripped

292
00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:16,119
Speaker 3: apart leads, but that was much better players that Lampard

293
00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:19,440
Speaker 3: had his disposal and that was a much a team

294
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:23,000
Speaker 3: that had much more time under Lampard to learn the system.

295
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:24,240
Speaker 2: I'm concerned.

296
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,080
Speaker 3: You know, if this game happened in a month or two,

297
00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:29,240
Speaker 3: I think it'd be different. But because Everton are still

298
00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,680
Speaker 3: adjusting to this Lampard effect, I cannot back them here.

299
00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:34,280
Speaker 3: So a lean toward leads for me.

300
00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:36,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a difficult match. You mentioned the injuries.

301
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,839
Speaker 1: No Damari Gray, no Yurimena for Everton. On the flip side,

302
00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:42,040
Speaker 1: still no Colin Phillips and no Patrick Bamford, who I

303
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,800
Speaker 1: haven't played that much at all this season, but we

304
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:46,880
Speaker 1: talked about this lot. It's just very hard to handicap

305
00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:49,640
Speaker 1: these type matches when really the most important players for

306
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,400
Speaker 1: each team is missing. So I agree with you. It's

307
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:53,040
Speaker 1: a pass for me.

308
00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:54,040
Speaker 2: All right.

309
00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,880
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the last ten am Eastern match

310
00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:03,120
Speaker 1: on Saturday. It is Watford hosting Brighton. Wofford is currently

311
00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,880
Speaker 1: a plus two to seventy five underdog at home, Brighton

312
00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:07,800
Speaker 1: at sitting at plus one point fifteen with the draw

313
00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,880
Speaker 1: a plus two twenty. I'm leaning towards committing a sin

314
00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,480
Speaker 1: on this podcast, and that's betting against Brighton. I don't

315
00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:15,360
Speaker 1: think I've done that in the last two years, but

316
00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,080
Speaker 1: for the first time in forever, I think they're a

317
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,560
Speaker 1: little overvalued on the road, especially given the last two

318
00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:25,560
Speaker 1: performances from Wackford. The four to four to two switch

319
00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,800
Speaker 1: under Roy Hodgson has just done wonders for their defense,

320
00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:32,720
Speaker 1: only point eight expected goals allowed against Burnley and only

321
00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:36,400
Speaker 1: point seven allowed to west Ham on Tuesday. In fact,

322
00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,480
Speaker 1: they've actually hold their last three opponents under one expected goal.

323
00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,800
Speaker 1: They held Norwich under one expectable even though they scored

324
00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,400
Speaker 1: three and got Claudia run Yery sacked. Now, Watford has

325
00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:47,280
Speaker 1: had a ton of injuries throughout the season, but they

326
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,480
Speaker 1: could be getting one of their best players, Ishmael Lassar

327
00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,280
Speaker 1: back on Saturday. He actually featured for Senegal at the

328
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,120
Speaker 1: Africa Cup of Nations. He's been out for a really

329
00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,960
Speaker 1: long time and he is the key to really unlocking

330
00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,360
Speaker 1: Roy Hodgins four to four to two because he can

331
00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 1: just porsch people up the wings. Brighton obviously still one

332
00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:06,280
Speaker 1: of the best defenses in the Premier like only one

333
00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:08,960
Speaker 1: point one two non penalty expected was allowed per match,

334
00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,040
Speaker 1: but the defensive performances away from home have been a

335
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:15,080
Speaker 1: bit concerning as of late. They've allowed eight point two

336
00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:18,520
Speaker 1: expected goals in their last five away matches, and they've

337
00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:22,160
Speaker 1: either drawn or lost the expected goals battle in six

338
00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,520
Speaker 1: of their last seven matches. And they also just lost

339
00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,200
Speaker 1: one of their best defenders Dan Byrne to Newcastle during

340
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,840
Speaker 1: the transferin Joe, which is somewhat significant because the last

341
00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:34,800
Speaker 1: few months he's really played that ball progressor Ben White

342
00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:38,800
Speaker 1: type role in Graham Potter's system, So without him, obviously,

343
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,480
Speaker 1: I believe they have their two main starting center backs back.

344
00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,800
Speaker 1: But I can't get to plus one fifteen on Bright

345
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:46,000
Speaker 1: and I actually only have them projected at plus one

346
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,400
Speaker 1: forty four. So I do think you're getting a little

347
00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,680
Speaker 1: bit of value on Watford at plus half a goal

348
00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,080
Speaker 1: at minus one thirty, but I'm gonna wait see how

349
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:55,880
Speaker 1: the market goes. I prefer to get Watford plus half

350
00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,040
Speaker 1: a goal at minus one twenty five, but I really

351
00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,520
Speaker 1: don't want to commit this sin I love. I don't

352
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,600
Speaker 1: want to bet against them, but again we say it

353
00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:03,880
Speaker 1: all the time. At a certain point we had to

354
00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,720
Speaker 1: play numbers, and I do think that Watford's performances have

355
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,240
Speaker 1: really improved with the new manager bouts under Roy Hodgson.

356
00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,040
Speaker 1: Do you have anything for Watford versus Brighton.

357
00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't really have a strong opinion on the

358
00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,720
Speaker 3: match generally. It's something we've talked about on this podcast

359
00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 3: as well. Brighton this season, if you just blindly bet

360
00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:22,880
Speaker 3: their spread in every game and you've been one hundred

361
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,400
Speaker 3: hours on every spread, they're actually the fourth most profitable

362
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 3: team in the entire league according to our Action Labs database. Yet,

363
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:31,800
Speaker 3: if you were to bet the Brighton money line in

364
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:35,000
Speaker 3: every single game this year, they're actually the fifth least

365
00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,200
Speaker 3: profitable team in the entire league.

366
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:39,400
Speaker 2: Now why is that? It seems off, but.

367
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,680
Speaker 3: It's really now I think right, they're a great underdog

368
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,280
Speaker 3: and they you know, when they were plus a half

369
00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:47,760
Speaker 3: against west Ham or against Chelsea, plus one against Chelsea,

370
00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,840
Speaker 3: plus one against plus one and a half against Liverpool.

371
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,800
Speaker 3: They've been excellent and have you know, they're very difficult

372
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 3: to break down.

373
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:58,200
Speaker 2: But when they've gone and played at Norwich and they

374
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,720
Speaker 2: were favored, or when they played Burnley they were favored,

375
00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,400
Speaker 2: when they played, you know, early in the season against

376
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:05,600
Speaker 2: Palace and they were favored, Like they've had a bunch

377
00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 2: of games where they've been the favorite and they've created chances.

378
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,360
Speaker 2: The leads game as well comes to mind, but they

379
00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,159
Speaker 2: just don't overwhelm you enough to get margin, and that's

380
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:17,359
Speaker 2: really the concern here. So I'm happy to pass this game.

381
00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,520
Speaker 3: Watford our risky business if they try to play out

382
00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:21,920
Speaker 3: from the back.

383
00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:23,560
Speaker 2: When these two teams played the first time.

384
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,680
Speaker 3: The first Brighton goal came from them trying to play

385
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:28,760
Speaker 3: out from the back, giving it away. Brighton winning the

386
00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:30,879
Speaker 3: ball of the pitch scoring, Well, that's not going to

387
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 3: happen with Roy Hodgson. We're booting it long and we're

388
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 3: defending and so I think it's a real challenge for

389
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 3: Brighton to break them down.

390
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:39,880
Speaker 2: So it could be a good underspot.

391
00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:41,919
Speaker 3: The total is pretty low, you're not allowed room for

392
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,760
Speaker 3: it to go under, but overall I'm happy to pass

393
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:45,080
Speaker 3: this one.

394
00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:48,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, Roy Hodgson really just clawed. You saw against west

395
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,239
Speaker 1: Ham they just clogged up down middle. West Ham had

396
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,679
Speaker 1: pretty much had nothing going through. Obviously they have the

397
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:54,679
Speaker 1: you know, the deflection goal, but other than that, they

398
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:57,399
Speaker 1: really thwarted a lot of the west Ham attacks that

399
00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,080
Speaker 1: were coming through the middle of the pitch, so it's

400
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,000
Speaker 1: going to be difficult for to come right through there.

401
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,359
Speaker 3: I've lost a lot of money fading Roy Hodgson waiting

402
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 3: for palace regression to come over the last couple of years,

403
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,159
Speaker 3: so I have no interest in fitting them here with

404
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 3: a team who does not project as a good favor.

405
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,080
Speaker 1: I agree with you, I don't Again, I don't know

406
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 1: if I'm to end up doing it because I feel

407
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 1: like I'd be committing a sin, but definitely leaning towards Watford.

408
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:18,560
Speaker 2: Brighton goes to United next week.

409
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 1: That's all I want to say. Yes, that's what I'm

410
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,639
Speaker 1: waiting for. Really, So let's hope that you know Brighton

411
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:24,880
Speaker 1: potentially we don't. We obviously never want Brighton to lose,

412
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 1: but let's potentially hope they lose this once so we

413
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,359
Speaker 1: can get a better number on them against United, and

414
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,600
Speaker 1: hope that United draws with Southampton so we can all

415
00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,240
Speaker 1: win our bets. All right, Next, let's go to the

416
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:39,679
Speaker 1: last game of Saturday, twelve thirty Eastern time, Norwich City

417
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 1: hosting League leaders Manchester City. Norwich City is a seventeen

418
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,120
Speaker 1: to one underdog at home, Manchester City sitting at minus

419
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 1: five point fifty, with the draw sitting at plus six fifty.

420
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,120
Speaker 1: I'm going to start here with one of the bets

421
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 1: I love to do with Manchester City. All the time

422
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 1: when they're playing against a smaller side, and that is

423
00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:00,880
Speaker 1: both teams to score no at minus one fifty Norwich.

424
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,840
Speaker 1: It seems weird to say it, but they're kind of

425
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:07,160
Speaker 1: in a cell high spot right now. They've won they

426
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,480
Speaker 1: won four straight matches and then they obviously drew with

427
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace on Wednesday. But in their last eight matches

428
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,440
Speaker 1: they've only created over one expected goal one time, and

429
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:21,440
Speaker 1: they are pathetic against the top teams in England and

430
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,120
Speaker 1: eight matches against the top seven teams they have scored

431
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 1: zero goals zero. They have not scored. In fact, when

432
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 1: they played Manchester City earlier in the season, Norwich registered

433
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,920
Speaker 1: one shot, six touches in the penalty area and only

434
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 1: two box entries, So I don't know how they're going

435
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 1: to score or create anything of substance against Manchester City's

436
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 1: world class defense. Now you can make the case that

437
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 1: City is going to rest some guys because they have

438
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: a Champions League match against Sporting Lisbon on Tuesday. However,

439
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,160
Speaker 1: if you look back at Pep Gariola, he has consistently

440
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 1: over the past two seasons played very strong lineups in

441
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,080
Speaker 1: these type of spots, so I would be shocked, especially

442
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 1: with the Premier League title, he's not out of the

443
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,639
Speaker 1: question yet would be really shocked if he actually played

444
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,679
Speaker 1: essentially their B team. Manchester City's defense against the bottom

445
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 1: half of the table this season is only allowing point

446
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 1: five to eight expected goals for match and only one

447
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 1: team has created over one expected goal against them, which

448
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 1: was Crystal Palace when City got a red card around

449
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 1: the forty fifth minutes. So I have no idea how

450
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,119
Speaker 1: Southampton is not only going to create the substance or

451
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 1: even keep the ball at any point in Cities half

452
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 1: for a significant amount of times. So I like both

453
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 1: teams to score no at minus one to fifty. Do

454
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 1: you have anything for Norwich versus City?

455
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 2: No. No. I actually bet the both teams to score.

456
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 3: The first time these two teams played went really well.

457
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 2: You mentioned it. One shot did not go in that shot.

458
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 3: Three nail to Liverpool, five nol to City, one nol

459
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 3: to Arsenal, seven nil to Chelsea, five to nol to Arsenal,

460
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:50,120
Speaker 3: three nail to Spurs, one.

461
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 2: Nilt to United, two no to west Ham. When we

462
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 2: count the top six, the Big six as they're dubbed

463
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,880
Speaker 2: in the Premier League, they have not only not scored.

464
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 2: They have allowed twenty five goals in seven games. It's

465
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 2: almost for a game. So yeah, easy pass. You know,

466
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:11,159
Speaker 2: you could say, oh, I like City minus two and

467
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: a half, but.

468
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 3: There's no value in that and betting them in this

469
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 3: spot minus two and a half is not ever going

470
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 3: to be plus ev so I'm happy to pass here.

471
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,719
Speaker 3: And it's not even like they've not allowed chances. It's

472
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 3: been unlucky.

473
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 2: I mean it's seventeen expected goals against two in seven games.

474
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 2: That's still over two and a half a game almost,

475
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,920
Speaker 2: So just easy, easiest pass on the board here and

476
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,440
Speaker 2: Norwich four games in a row they scored big time

477
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 2: for them. But happy to stay away here.

478
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,160
Speaker 1: All right. Let's head to Sunday nine am Eastern Time.

479
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: Burnley is hosting Liverpool at turf More. Burnley sitting at

480
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 1: plus nine hundred, Liverpool at minus three ten, with the

481
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: draw at plus four fifty. We're obviously taking this on

482
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 1: Wednesday night before the Leicester and Liverpool match, so it'll

483
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 1: be interesting to see what happens, not only what happens

484
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 1: in that what type of lineup that Liverpool is going

485
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 1: to play. This is not the best of spots for Liverpool.

486
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: They obviously have a Champions League match on Wednesday against

487
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,640
Speaker 1: Inner Balan, so they're coming into this on two days rest.

488
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: And you would call this pretty much the definition of

489
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 1: a Sandwich spot playing against a lower side like Burnley,

490
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,959
Speaker 1: but they present so many matchup problems for Burnley it's

491
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 1: not even funny. Obviously, Liverpool number one in every single

492
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 1: offensive category and more importantly are the number one road

493
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 1: offense in the Premier League two point four to three

494
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 1: expected goals per match away from home. The past few seasons,

495
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 1: Liverpool has just completely overheam Burnley every single time they

496
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,479
Speaker 1: faced them, even if they haven't gotten the results that

497
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 1: they deserved. Last year they lost one nothing to them

498
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:39,919
Speaker 1: at home when they were in the middle of an

499
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 1: injury crisis, but still completely dominated them unexpected goals. Their

500
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 1: last four meetings, they've created over two point three expected

501
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 1: goals against Burnley, including earlier this year they've created around

502
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 1: three expected goals in a very dominant to nothing win.

503
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 1: Burnley did get a result against Manchester United on Tuesday,

504
00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: despite losing unexpected goals two point one two point eight. However,

505
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 1: their best player Maxwell Corney looked like he went off

506
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 1: with the injury Sean Ditsch did did say that it

507
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 1: didn't sound serious and it was kind of more of

508
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 1: a cramp, but he also said they're going to be

509
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 1: very careful with him because they need him for the

510
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 1: entire stretch run. I highly doubt that Liverpool is going

511
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: to rest a number of their star players for this

512
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 1: match meanings because it still means a ton for them

513
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 1: in the Premier League title race. So I expect a

514
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 1: full squad from Liverpool even if they decide to rest

515
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 1: a few guys here and there. They're finally healthy for

516
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: one of the first times all season long, so they

517
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 1: actually have depth and can rotate guys when earlier in

518
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 1: the season they didn't have that option. So I have

519
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: Liverpool spread projected at minus one point eight five, So

520
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 1: getting them at a minus one and a half at

521
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: even money, I think it's a pretty good price on

522
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 1: the Reds to blow up Burnley. What are you looking

523
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 1: at for this match?

524
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 2: Yeah?

525
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 3: I won't be betting this until the conclusion of Liverpool

526
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 3: Leicester on Thursday, which most of you will be listening

527
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 3: after this. P J and I are actually one sides

528
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 3: of that, damn, and I am fearful for how that

529
00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 3: may go.

530
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,159
Speaker 2: For me. But with that being said, you mentioned the

531
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 2: Sandwich spot. I don't really care.

532
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 3: We saw how bad Burnley looked in the first half

533
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 3: at home against United. When United was pressing, they had

534
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 3: a lot of energy. Well imagine that for a full

535
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 3: ninety minutes instead of the forty five minute spell that

536
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 3: United gave them in the first half when they could

537
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 3: have been up two or three goals. I think this

538
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:23,199
Speaker 3: is a paddle Liverpool spot. Now Liverpool routes lester. Maybe not,

539
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,440
Speaker 3: you know, it becomes less of a good spot and

540
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 3: the number may jump and then I may end up passing.

541
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 3: But in most likelihood situations, I think this Liverpool will

542
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,359
Speaker 3: steamroll here and everyone's going to play into the narrative.

543
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 3: Oh it's right before the Champions League. I don't think

544
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 3: it matters because they're still chasing Manchester City. They need

545
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 3: goal difference and there are only six points behind right

546
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 3: now and they have a game in hand, so it

547
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,199
Speaker 3: really could be three and they still play City, so

548
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 3: they're very much in the race. It's probably not going

549
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 3: to happen because City is the better team and they

550
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 3: have the lead, but it's not out of the realm

551
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 3: of possibility, and they know that, so I think Liverpool

552
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 3: will cruise here and I have it at one point

553
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 3: six seven, so also search some value on the rents.

554
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is kind of the same thing I

555
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 1: kind of did today and kind of a little uh,

556
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,919
Speaker 1: I guess lessened to everybody out there. Have Liverpool and

557
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 1: Burnley pulled up on whatever sportsbook you're using during the

558
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 1: match to play the minus one and a half. You know, obviously,

559
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: if if Liverpool goes up early against Burnley and they

560
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: look like they're just completely dominating, bet it now. Bet

561
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,879
Speaker 1: it right there during the match, because then usually what

562
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 1: happens is the odds will move after the match is over.

563
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 1: So really have it up ready to go play that

564
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: during the match. You can obviously follow Anthony or myself

565
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 1: in the Action Network AP. You can put notifications on

566
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 1: if you'd like to, and you'll get You'll see if

567
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:37,920
Speaker 1: it comes through for me during that match. I might

568
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: end up actually playing it after Lesser versus Liverpool, but

569
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. Let's move on. On Sunday, Newcastle

570
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 1: is hosting aston Villa at nine am Eastern Time. Newcastle

571
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: is a plus one ninety underdog to aston Villa, who

572
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 1: is plus one fifty with the draw it plus two forty.

573
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,479
Speaker 1: I don't really have anything for this match, and I

574
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: kind of in general just want to talk about Newcastle.

575
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,479
Speaker 1: We're in a very rare situation with Newcastle and it's

576
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 1: probably never going to happen again as long as we

577
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: do this podcast where a trillionaire essentially comes in and

578
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: buys a team and spends one hundred million dollars in

579
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 1: the January transfer window, it's very difficult to project Newcastle

580
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 1: in that realm. Just for the pure fact is that

581
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: number one. They obviously brought in Dan Byrne, but they're

582
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 1: still playing Lacel's and shar As. They're back to Trivier

583
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 1: obviously helps them. Gamarz obviously helps them in the midfield.

584
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: But it's going to take some time for us to

585
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: figure out if Newcastle is moved up to a mid

586
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: table side or are they still in the relegation fight.

587
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 1: Their defense is still pretty bad. Like you mentioned earlier

588
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 1: with Everton, they pressed Newcastle pretty successfully so and obviously

589
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,959
Speaker 1: Newcastle before all these guys came in, was still one

590
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 1: of the worst teams against pressure in the preally now

591
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 1: aston Villa under Stephen Gerrard hasn't really pressed at that

592
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: high of a rate, so they could get a decent

593
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: edge there. As far as the market is concerned, I'm

594
00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: pretty much dead on with what the market has, so

595
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 1: I will happily be passing on this and continuing just

596
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 1: to monitor Newcastle with all these changes and see how

597
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: they play and see if they potentially become a team

598
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,919
Speaker 1: that we need to start buying in on or a

599
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 1: team that maybe we need to be fading because all

600
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 1: these new pieces aren't really fitting in. So for right

601
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: now with me, Newcastle is kind of a wait and

602
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: see type of thing. I don't know how long that's

603
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 1: gonna last. For me, it might last through the rest

604
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 1: of the season, who knows. Obviously, I don't know I'm

605
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: ever gonna put my money somewhere where I don't fully

606
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 1: trust how I feel or how I'm projecting a certain team,

607
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 1: so I'll be passing on this match. Do you have

608
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: anything for Newcastle versus Aston Villa? Yeah?

609
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,439
Speaker 3: You know, I've got Newcastle seventeenth in my ratings and

610
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 3: I've got Villa twelve, so it's not a huge difference here,

611
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 3: and you'd expect them to be slight road favorites with

612
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 3: that and that's where they are.

613
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 2: I don't really have a ton on this game either.

614
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 3: I think the most interesting thing about Newcastle is that,

615
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 3: you know, their passes per defensive action against Everton was

616
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:57,919
Speaker 3: the lowest they've had in any game all year. That

617
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 3: could mean two things. One, they did have Bruno Gamars

618
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 3: come off the bench. Joe Willick I thought had a

619
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 3: really strong match for them in the midfield. But I

620
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 3: wonder how much of that was just Everton being discombobulated

621
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 3: and willing to go up tempo and play kind of

622
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 3: like a frenetic pace game and Lampard and them, you know,

623
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,400
Speaker 3: not really being set up for it and then thus

624
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 3: getting exposed. But there's still a lack of attacking options

625
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 3: in this team and that's the major concern. Callum Wilson

626
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:26,880
Speaker 3: questionable for this one. He's a big loss. And Villa

627
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 3: we should mention, you know, I said in the last

628
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 3: show that we weren't really sure what to expect from

629
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 3: this Villa attack. They've been overperforming. They've lacked kind of

630
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 3: the quality to really spring these counters. Well, if you

631
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 3: watch the game against Leeds, Philip Catino has totally changed

632
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 3: the calculus. His ability to pick out a pass, his

633
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 3: ability to be a passing dynamo. You know, Jack Realish

634
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 3: was an elite ball carrier into the penalty area for

635
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 3: them last year, and that was their main form of

636
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 3: how do we get the ball from the midfield to

637
00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 3: the attacking third where we have guys like Ollie Wak

638
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 3: and the emerging Jacob Ramsey who are pretty good players

639
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,239
Speaker 3: and who you know walkins, especially a good, you know,

640
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 3: ten to fifteen goal years type Premier League striker. Well,

641
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 3: if Katinho is going to be the one to spring

642
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 3: those counters and he's going to be the one to

643
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 3: pick the passes, that solves their biggest issue, which was

644
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 3: their biggest issue under Dean Smith. And you know, Gerrard

645
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: is solving the defense because he's he's obviously clearly got

646
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 3: a record of fixing defenses. And it seems to me

647
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 3: at least that Katinho has helped unlock the offense. So

648
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 3: you have to think that, you know, both these teams

649
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 3: are trending, I think in the right direction generally as clubs,

650
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 3: and and I really don't have a strong read on

651
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 3: this game at all.

652
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 2: I think the number is about right, so happy to pass.

653
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, Katino really is filled in that Jack Realer swall

654
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: that Aston Villa hasn't been able to recapture, especially with

655
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: Ben Bundia or Leon Bailey who's officely been injured quite

656
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: a bit. It's hard to replace a player of Jack

657
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: Realation's status, especially for a mid table club like that

658
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 1: and what he meant for their offense. But if Katinho

659
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: can continue to play at the level he's at, man

660
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: look out for asking Mila going forward and we'll see

661
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: if that their chances creating start to line up a

662
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 1: little bit more with the goals they've been scoring. All right,

663
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 1: let's move on. On Sunday at nine am Eastern, your

664
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 1: Tottenham Hotspurs are hosting Wolves. Toutham is a minus one

665
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 1: fifty five home favorite, Wolves sitting at plus four to

666
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 1: seventy five at the draw plus two eighty five. I

667
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: don't really have a lot for this match. I would

668
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 1: really like to see how Wolves performs against Arsenal on

669
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: a Thursday in the type of style that they play.

670
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: Are they are they going to play more open or

671
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 1: are they going to sit back defensively compac and try

672
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 1: to hit him on the counter. I'll potentially maybe be

673
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: looking at playing an over two goals if it's a

674
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: decent price. Again, I just like I said in the

675
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: last show, I don't know what to make of this

676
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: Wolves offense right now. They go create two against Southampton

677
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 1: and then they come back and do nothing against Brentford.

678
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 1: So I'll be passing on this one. How are you feeling.

679
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: How's the mood in spurs Land now that you guys

680
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: are tied on points and have this same number of

681
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 1: matches as Arsenal.

682
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 2: You know, we're feeling fine. I actually treated my thoughts

683
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 2: on the race in the top four race earlier and

684
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 2: I stand by this. You know, it's a fourteen race.

685
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 3: I spoke last podcast about how I don't really buy

686
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 3: into west Ham a long term. I think there's some

687
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 3: clear regression coming and some indicators that suggest they may

688
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 3: struggle down the stretch.

689
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 2: Here.

690
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 3: Arsenal and Spurs are very comparable. I've got them very

691
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 3: close in my numbers. I think United is the best

692
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 3: team of the you know, they have the best squad,

693
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 3: most talent, and they've played at the higher level in

694
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 3: the more recent past, prior to the you know, the

695
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 3: recent collapse. They've shown they can play at a higher level.

696
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 3: But they have the toughest fixture list of the teams

697
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 3: man and they haven't played any of the Big six again,

698
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 3: so overall, I think it's going to be really interesting.

699
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 3: It probably does come down to who wins in North

700
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 3: London when Arsenal visits Spurs, and we don't know why

701
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 3: that game is going to be but I'm hoping they

702
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 3: put it right before the end of the season like

703
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 3: that last midweek, because I think that would be the

704
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 3: optimal time and for the for the hype of it,

705
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 3: and I think that'd be just an awesome time. But

706
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 3: as far as this match goes, I look toward the

707
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 3: over automatically, I'm not going to play anything until we

708
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: get the you know, the Wolves Arsenal game, because I

709
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,479
Speaker 3: think we can learn a lot from that too. You know,

710
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 3: Arsenal and Tottenham are similar in terms of team strength,

711
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 3: they're a little different in how they profile. I think

712
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 3: Arsenal and better defensive lyas Spurs are better going forward.

713
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 3: But I mean look at Tottenham again. I know they

714
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: played badly today, but even with only ten shots, they

715
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 3: still created one point eight expected goals, had another goal

716
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 3: of vart Off by about a foot by Steven Ergwne

717
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 3: and then had a set piece goal that was just offside.

718
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,719
Speaker 2: From Romeo as well. So they're creating a ton of

719
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 2: chances and it's.

720
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:37,719
Speaker 3: Clear to me that Caine and Son have looked as

721
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 3: good recently as they've looked all year.

722
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 2: I've talked about attacking regression. It's still coming for Tottenham

723
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 2: in a big way at both ends of the pitch.

724
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 2: This defense has been getting a bit fortunate. The attack's

725
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 2: been very unlucky. I mean, I've been playing Spurs overs

726
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 2: for the last few matches now and I'm going to

727
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: keep playing them until the market adjusts because two is

728
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 2: just too low for this Tottenham attack and the way

729
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 2: they've been defending. Sanchez and Royale.

730
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 3: Gave the ball the way seventeen times today against the

731
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 3: Southampton Press. Now Wolves will not press to that extent,

732
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 3: but they're still dangers on the counter. So I have

733
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 3: concerns about, you know, the Tottenham defense and then the

734
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 3: Wolves defense. It's a luckbox at this point, and we

735
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 3: can say they're good defense, but they've been so fortunate

736
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 3: with these chances and it's not gonna last forever. So

737
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 3: I would automatically look over and I project two point

738
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 3: three six. So I'm well over the two minus one

739
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 3: thirty that's currently set at the market.

740
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm at two point four two, so I'm right

741
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: there with you. Well, it's interesting about Wolves, and I

742
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 1: really again why we say we were going to wait

743
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: until we see what happens with Arsenal, because Arsenal very

744
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: similarly can unlock you on the counter to the speed

745
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 1: that Tottenham can as well. Wolves plays this what I

746
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: call it, it's almost like a half court press. They

747
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: will not press you above the halfway line, but once

748
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: you cross that halfway line, they're just going to press,

749
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 1: press and hunt you and packs stay compact, say that defensively,

750
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: and then look to hate you on the counter. What's

751
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 1: weird is they didn't really play outa my triori that

752
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 1: much over the past few months, to the loss of

753
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 1: him really doesn't mean much to the Wolves attack. Obviously,

754
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: Kim coming off the bench is good for them, but

755
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,720
Speaker 1: he didn't. He wasn't an every match type of starter

756
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 1: for them. I agree with you, I'm probably gonna end

757
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: up playing over two. I might even you know, go

758
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 1: a little crazy and play over two and a half

759
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 1: at I think it's a plus one thirty five right now.

760
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 1: To try to get some good odds. We'll see. I'm

761
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 1: not convinced that they're an over team yet, only creating

762
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 1: over only one expected goal twice in their last nine

763
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 1: matches does not make me feel good about them being

764
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:33,359
Speaker 1: in an over team. But we'll see.

765
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 2: What a regression February baby.

766
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 1: We'll see. We'll see what happens. All right, Let's head

767
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 1: to the final match of the weekend. It's on Sunday

768
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: at eleven thirty a m. Eastern time. Lester is hosting

769
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,760
Speaker 1: west Ham at the king Power Stadium. Lester is plus

770
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,320
Speaker 1: one ninety west Ham at plus one forty five, with

771
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: the draw sing at plus two fifty. I'll start I

772
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 1: love over three goals at plus one fifteen. Obviously, like

773
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 1: we already said, we're taping this before the Lester Liverpool

774
00:34:58,000 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 1: match on Thursday, so it'll be interesting to see what

775
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:04,760
Speaker 1: happened there. But Man, Lester's defense against the top teams

776
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 1: in England is really really bad. I mentioned in the

777
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 1: last podcast two point four to six expected goals per

778
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,320
Speaker 1: match and two point five big scoring chances per match,

779
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 1: and not surprisingly, Lester's actually the worst defense at home

780
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,439
Speaker 1: in the Premier League one point eighty five expected goals

781
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: allowed per match. Now west Hams offense has been somewhat

782
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,320
Speaker 1: lost the last two Premier League matches. They only created

783
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 1: point three expected goals against United, only point seven against

784
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 1: Watford on Tuesday. However, this is a perfect get right

785
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 1: spot for them against pretty much the worst defense in

786
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: the Premier League that's been trending at least over the

787
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 1: last few months. Lester is basically used to playing these

788
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 1: high scoring type of matches now it's been happening for

789
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 1: the last few months. They're used to it because you know,

790
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 1: their offense has been somewhat able to mask their defensive

791
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 1: problems since November twentieth, when Lester lost three nothing to

792
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:54,720
Speaker 1: Chelsea and it was the first time like, oh my gosh,

793
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,720
Speaker 1: what is wrong with this Lester defense? Right now, matches

794
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: involving Lester are averaging a whopping four expected goals essentially

795
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 1: their last nine or so matches. So I think this

796
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 1: one is high scoring event written all over it. Obviously,

797
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 1: you know the west Ham defense with Craig Dawson back there,

798
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 1: just hasn't really been working. I have three point four

799
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: goals projected, so I like the price in over three

800
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 1: goals at plus one fifteen do you have anything for

801
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 1: Lester versus west Ham.

802
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I somewhat disagree, but I again like I want

803
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 3: to see how Lester looks on Thursday against Liverpool.

804
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:31,760
Speaker 2: I want to see if they're going to be getting

805
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 2: anybody back in the midfield.

806
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 3: It looks like Mendy maybe back from Afcon for Thursday

807
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 3: for Leicester, which helps they are going to have, not

808
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 3: that they've been any good, but sion Chu and Vestigard

809
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:43,439
Speaker 3: are both going to start.

810
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 2: It looks like against Liverpool as well.

811
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 3: We need some more information here, but I'm just not

812
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,359
Speaker 3: buying this west Ham attack right now. Antonio has really

813
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,280
Speaker 3: dropped off. His numbers have not been nearly as impressive

814
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 3: in the last monthish and I.

815
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 2: Think there's some regression coming for this attack.

816
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 3: So away from home, I think this could be a

817
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 3: tighter game, But it takes a lot for me to

818
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 3: hit the button on a Lester under right now, and

819
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,959
Speaker 3: so I'm probably going to end up staying away from this.

820
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 2: One as far as the side goes.

821
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 3: West Ham rightly a road favorite here, don't really show

822
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 3: any value. My number is almost dead not on, so

823
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,439
Speaker 3: happy to pass that. So I would have a lean

824
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 3: toward the under, but you know, under three is like

825
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 3: minus one thirty five, one forty. I don't really want

826
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 3: to lay the juice there, but if it got down

827
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 3: to say one twenty, I'd probably fire on.

828
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 2: It, yeah, Lester, and then start praying immediately.

829
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,280
Speaker 3: They've allowed the most penalties in the league seven penalties,

830
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 3: which it definitely inflates the numbers, but at a certain

831
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 3: point you're playing a lot of backup center backs, you're

832
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 3: gonna give away penalties, but.

833
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 2: They tend to be random.

834
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 3: Last year Lester with a luck box of the year

835
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 3: because they got all these penalties. This year they'll giving

836
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 3: them all back, so it's made for an interesting betting conundrum.

837
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, what's interesting Lester in those sense. November twentieth, like

838
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: I mentioned, is twenty three big scoring chances allowed in

839
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 1: eight matches and when basically the whole first half of

840
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 1: the season they just allowed seven. So something is just

841
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: flipped and happened. Obviously it was injuries. We're a big

842
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 1: part of that. But again this is another situation kind

843
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,919
Speaker 1: of like I mentioned with essentially, yeah, the Liverpool Lester match,

844
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 1: I would probably have west Ham Lester total if I'm

845
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 1: going to play over open right there, because if those

846
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 1: defensive issues creep up and Liverpool goes up to nothing

847
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 1: inside the first twenty minutes, and Lester just looks horrendous defensively.

848
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 1: There is no chance for getting a better number. Over

849
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 1: three goals a plus one fifteen, then you might you

850
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:27,800
Speaker 1: might end up being you know, minus by the time

851
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 1: this match rolls around. So over three and a f

852
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: goals at plus one fifteen and I would maybe just

853
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 1: play it even before the Leicester Liverpool match. Let's move

854
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 1: on to the rest of Europe. Let's head over to

855
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 1: Germany for our Bundesliga Best Bet. Where are you taking

856
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: us in Germany this weekend?

857
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:51,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm still emotionally scarred from Leverkuz in Endortmund. The

858
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:54,720
Speaker 2: under the match what did ich? That was five to two? Thriller.

859
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 3: You know, it's one of those bets where you know

860
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 3: your numbers say you have to do it, and I

861
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 3: gave it on this podcast and you know five too.

862
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:03,319
Speaker 2: I mean there was two own goals in the first

863
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 2: ten minutes.

864
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 3: Dortmund I think didn't have any expected goals in the

865
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 3: first half and it was two to one, so, you know,

866
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:15,800
Speaker 3: hilarious loss in that game. I'm staying away from leverkus

867
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 3: and I need a break and I show value on

868
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 3: the under in their match again and I'm just like,

869
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 3: I can't do it. But the one team that I'm

870
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 3: happy to bet on here is Wolfsburg. You know, we're

871
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 3: getting near the bottom of the market on them, and

872
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 3: the bottom was probably last week before they went out

873
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 3: and smashed our greuter Firth with a four to one victory.

874
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 3: You know, it ended up being a bit of a

875
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:37,839
Speaker 3: relegation battle when you think about it, because of how

876
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 3: low Wolfsburg have fawn in the table. But that win

877
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 3: will give them some breathing room. But really this is

878
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 3: all about in terms of attacks and defenses, buying low

879
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,479
Speaker 3: and selling high Wolfsburg. They lost Vegors, which was actually

880
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 3: their number one underperformer in terms of expected goals, but

881
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 3: they still only have twenty one goals from thirty expected.

882
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 3: Just a classic spot where this team is really a

883
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 3: top seven team in the Bundesliga.

884
00:39:58,920 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 2: Buy my numbers.

885
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 3: They're all the way down in twelve and they're a

886
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 3: road underdog in a spot against the Frankfurt team that

887
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 3: I project to be pretty even with them. I have

888
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 3: eintracked as a tiny favorite at home, but Frankfurt themselves.

889
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 2: Have been pretty fortunate.

890
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 3: Defensively lately, they've been getting away with conceding a ton

891
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 3: of chances and not really conceding goals off of those,

892
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 3: so when you look at it, you know, conceding one

893
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 3: point five to Osburg, two point five to Dortmund, one

894
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 3: point nine to Gladbach.

895
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 2: We talked about how bad they've been.

896
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 3: They're, you know, winning some games, they've won four out

897
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 3: of seven, but the defense has been really poor. So

898
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:36,720
Speaker 3: I think this is a good spot for Wolfsburg's attack

899
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 3: to get right, and I'm happy to take Wolfsburg plus

900
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 3: half a goal when I project them pretty much as

901
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 3: to pick them.

902
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I told I'm gay. I agree with you.

903
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 1: I've already bet Wolfsburg plus half a goal at minus

904
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: one forty. You know what's interesting about the Bundesliga is

905
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 1: that the race for the top four the final four

906
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 1: spot is incredibly interesting. We have seven teams within four

907
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 1: points for the final spot, so we could have some

908
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,360
Speaker 1: just absolute chaos in Germany as we go throughout the

909
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 1: rest of this season. I'm gonna go with Hoffenheim minus

910
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: one at minus one fifteen at home against Armenia bia Field.

911
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 1: This BA Field luck box has got to stop and

912
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: it's got to stop right now. So far in the season,

913
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 1: they have a minus six actual goal differential, they're sitting

914
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 1: just above the relegation zone, but they have a negative

915
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 1: sixteen point three expected goal differential. They're unbeaten in their

916
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: last seven matches, They've picked up twelve points, but their

917
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: expected points is only six point three per understat The

918
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 1: reason that is that because they've lost the expected goals

919
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 1: battle combined five point three to eight point nine, so

920
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:36,839
Speaker 1: negative aggression is going to hit them like a ton

921
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 1: of bricks, hopefully in the near future. Hoffenheim, on the

922
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 1: other hand, has lost three straight matches in the Bundesliga,

923
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 1: but they are due for some positive aggression. They only

924
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 1: lost the expected goals battle four point three to five

925
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: point two in those three matches, and Hoffenheim is one

926
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 1: of the more prolific offenses in the Bundesliga this year,

927
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:55,479
Speaker 1: averaging one point sixty nine non penalty expected goals for match.

928
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,800
Speaker 1: They're also top three and big scoring chances box entries

929
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 1: and crosses completed in the eighteen guard box, while Armenia

930
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 1: is one of the three worst teams in the Bundesliga

931
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 1: and both box entries allowed and crosses completed in their

932
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 1: own penalty areas, so Hoffenheim should have no trouble creating chances. Additionally,

933
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:16,240
Speaker 1: Armenia presses at the second highest rate in the Bundesliga,

934
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 1: but they are shockingly inefficient when they press their sixteenth

935
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 1: and passes per defensive action in fifteenth in pressure's success rate. Well,

936
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 1: Hoffenheim is one of the two best teams in Germany

937
00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 1: playing through pressure. So this is a spot where I

938
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:32,759
Speaker 1: know you have been doing this as well, where it's

939
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 1: time to fade b feled once again. I have Hoffenheim

940
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 1: spread projected at minus around minus one point four, so

941
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 1: I love the price of their spread of minus one

942
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen and let's hope, hope and pray

943
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 1: to God that some of that negative aggression hits them

944
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 1: sometime soon.

945
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Gladbach couldn't capitalize on that, so that was one

946
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 3: of the spots of the year, and of course they

947
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 3: missed two or three huge.

948
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 2: Chances and hit the post and how to penalty.

949
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 3: It gets called against them every week, but then you

950
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 3: get called against them, just more pain for them. But yeah,

951
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,319
Speaker 3: BLFL absolute disaster of a team. Some of us are

952
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 3: holding relegation tickets, probably gonna not win them because of

953
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 3: this luck, but they're absolutely one of the three worst

954
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 3: teams and really there's a clear bottom three when you

955
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 3: consider Osburg Bilfeld our boys great there. So you know,

956
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 3: we'll see what happens with that, but definitely a good

957
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 3: Hoffenheim spot.

958
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 2: I may be joining you on that or putting them

959
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:28,760
Speaker 2: some kind of a money line parlay.

960
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's hope to God that the russion comes soon.

961
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 1: All right, let's move down to Italy, an even more

962
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: chaotic league this year for the Siria os Late. Where

963
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,760
Speaker 1: are you taking us in your home country this weekend?

964
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, so there's two huge games in Italy. We've got

965
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:48,399
Speaker 2: into Milan, who now have a title race again after

966
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 2: blowing the game against Milan, they were up one nil,

967
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 2: they blew it. I lost to one to Olivier Deroux

968
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 2: turning back the clock. Goals good for the race.

969
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 3: You know, I think we need a good title race

970
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 3: and right now, when you look across Europe, there's not

971
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 3: going to be any unless Liverpool makes something of it

972
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:08,839
Speaker 3: or Italy, and so as a neutral rooting for that,

973
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 3: they are going on the road to Napoli. But I

974
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,479
Speaker 3: actually have my eyes set on another big game which

975
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 3: could decide forth Juventus against Atalanta. And when we talk narratives,

976
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 3: I mean this is like the ultimate ultimate narrative spot,

977
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 3: right Juventus. So they've got this guy Duzlonvohovic and he

978
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 3: scored a goal in his debut, and they added Zacharia,

979
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 3: whom I love, and he scored in his debut. And

980
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 3: I think them scoring and them beating a pretty overrated

981
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 3: Verona team, we can both agree, is kind of clouding

982
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 3: the narrative around this team. They only had eleven shots

983
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 3: in the whole game. Barona had thirteen. Now vern only

984
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,359
Speaker 3: put one of those on target. And you know, Juve

985
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,919
Speaker 3: was better one point two, two point six expected goals.

986
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 3: They deserve to win. But I think we're overreacting here.

987
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 3: Both teams will play in the Copa Italia quarterfinals on Thursday,

988
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 3: so not really arrest advantage for either side.

989
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 2: But here's the thing about Atalanta. They again to Calgilary.

990
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:03,280
Speaker 2: There was a red card involved. It was a flat

991
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 2: spot for them.

992
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 3: It had a lot of guys out injured getting back

993
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,879
Speaker 3: into form coming back from the international break as well.

994
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 3: It was a really weird spot in a really weird game,

995
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 3: and I think it kind of throws off reality here,

996
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 3: and the reality is that, at least in my numbers,

997
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 3: these are teams are very very similar. So I'm getting

998
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 3: even teams, but I'm getting the home team at even money,

999
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 3: and I'm happy to take Adlanta here, buying low on them,

1000
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 3: selling this uve hype train right dead in its tracks, Atlanta,

1001
00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:29,279
Speaker 3: JOHNO Bett minus one oh five.

1002
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:33,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll be selling that uve hy train next week

1003
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,800
Speaker 1: in the Champions League when they play our via Reale boys.

1004
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 1: I'm going to go to probably one of the worst

1005
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 1: matches on the Syria slate. Kagiliari plus half a goal

1006
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: at even money against Empoli. Kagliari has actually put up

1007
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 1: some pretty impressive performances in their last seven matches. They've

1008
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 1: obviously been in the relegation zone for most of the season,

1009
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,840
Speaker 1: they haven't really gotten the results they deserve. Since December eighteenth,

1010
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 1: they actually have a plus one point two expect a

1011
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 1: gold differential and I have created nine big scoring chances

1012
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 1: in seven matches, compared to their first seventeen games of

1013
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 1: the season, they only create eleven total big scoring chances.

1014
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 1: They also played a very difficult schedule during those seven matches,

1015
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 1: which included Juventus, Roma, Fiorentina and Atlanta. And Polly, on

1016
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 1: the other hand, is in pretty terrible form. They haven't

1017
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 1: won a Syria A match since December twelfth. They have

1018
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 1: a minus two point six expected gold differential during that

1019
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: time span, and Polly is also one of the worst

1020
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: defenses in Italy. They allow one point six to four

1021
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals per match. They're also one of

1022
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:32,400
Speaker 1: the two worst teams in terms of big scoring chances allowed,

1023
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: box centuries allowed and crosses completed in their own penalty area. Also,

1024
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:40,839
Speaker 1: the home road splits for Impoli are quite shocking. They

1025
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 1: play pretty well away from home, they have a plus

1026
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 1: one point six expected gold differential. However, in twelve home

1027
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:50,880
Speaker 1: matches in Syria A they have a minus eleven expected

1028
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 1: gold differential and are allowing two point three to five

1029
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: expected goals for match. So I have no clue why

1030
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 1: they're a minus one oh five home favorite against the

1031
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 1: Kagi Art that's really trending in the right direction. So

1032
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 1: I only have employee projected at plus one thirty six,

1033
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 1: So I love the value on Kagliari plus half a

1034
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 1: goal at even money. All right, let's move over to Spain.

1035
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 1: In La Liga. I'll get it started. I like both

1036
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 1: teams to score no in Ryo Viacona Osna probably one

1037
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 1: of the hopefully one of the biggest snooze fests of

1038
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 1: the weekend. Two really good defenses and the style of

1039
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 1: play of both these teams is really gonna lend itself

1040
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 1: towards a more low scoring affair. Viacono and Osuna both

1041
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 1: top ten in La Liga and non penalty expected goes allowed,

1042
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: and both are top eight in a big scoring chants allowed.

1043
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 1: Osuna typically plays very defensive, either out of a four

1044
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 1: to one, four one or four to four to two,

1045
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 1: which has been very successful for them considering their fifth

1046
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 1: and expected goals allowed. However, it's hampered them offensively. They

1047
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 1: are only creating around zero point eight non penalty expected

1048
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 1: goals per match. Additionally, a lot of where Osuna creates

1049
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 1: their chances is down the flank, swinging and cross the box,

1050
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 1: while Biacono's the number one team in La Liga and

1051
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,280
Speaker 1: crosses allowed into their own penalty area. On the flip side,

1052
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 1: Viacano hasn't really created much offensively from open play, only

1053
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 1: averaging point eight nine XG per match. However, they've created

1054
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:16,719
Speaker 1: the most expected goals in La Liga off a set pieces.

1055
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 1: The problem is is oh soon as top five in

1056
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,400
Speaker 1: Spain in XG allowed per set piece one of my

1057
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 1: favorite stats. I think I've pulled the date only three

1058
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 1: times this season in an o Soona match has both

1059
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 1: teams created at least one expected goal each. Additionally, when

1060
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 1: these two teams met earlier in the season, Biacana won

1061
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,360
Speaker 1: one nothing and only a total of point eight expected

1062
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 1: goals were created total in the match, so both teams

1063
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 1: to score no is currently at minus one fifteen. I

1064
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:45,239
Speaker 1: haven't projected at minus one ninety eight, so I love

1065
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,799
Speaker 1: the value on that. What do you have for La

1066
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: Liga this weekend?

1067
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 2: Well, the board thought we'd get a better for your

1068
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:53,720
Speaker 2: real number. Yeah we didn't.

1069
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,319
Speaker 1: Disappointing really because I had that spot circled the champions lead.

1070
00:48:57,360 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 2: Look ahead for Real Madrid doesn't look like Ben's is

1071
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:01,359
Speaker 2: going to play. Vinie may not play.

1072
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 3: There's no reason for Real Madrid to be playing guys

1073
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 3: when they have a much more important match coming up

1074
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 3: on Tuesday against PSG.

1075
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 2: But to pick them, I.

1076
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 3: May still play vi Rio because I love the spot

1077
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:14,279
Speaker 3: so much, even though my number is not really there,

1078
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 3: but my spot that I really like. I'm fading ray

1079
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 3: Al Bettis again on the road. Lavante has a positive

1080
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 3: expected goal difference at home this year and they are

1081
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 3: in dead last with six points away from the closest team.

1082
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 3: They're gone full Eyebar, which if you follow Alga you

1083
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 3: know Ibar was the team who pressed a lot and

1084
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 3: they were a tiny club and they ran incredibly unlucky

1085
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 3: last year and got relegated against against the soccer gods

1086
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,279
Speaker 3: will really and Levante's on the same path.

1087
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:44,280
Speaker 2: They're gonna get relegated.

1088
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:47,280
Speaker 3: But this is an all in home spot and Bettis

1089
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 3: has a bunch of attacking regression coming. They've been considerably

1090
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 3: worse away from home than they've been at home. They're

1091
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 3: like eighth best and expected goals away as Levante's about thirteenth.

1092
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 2: Montoni is one win all year.

1093
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 3: They don't need to win this match though, they just

1094
00:49:58,120 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 3: need to draw it for me to catch the plus

1095
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 3: a half at minus one twenty. So that's where I

1096
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 3: went for this one.

1097
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, Iyebar our last season. This season before that, it

1098
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: was Leganis who got just very cruelly relegated with a

1099
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,720
Speaker 1: minus points one point six expect a goal differential but yeah,

1100
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:17,000
Speaker 1: I agree with you. Levante is a very interesting team

1101
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 1: in La Liga. I've been trying to play some overs

1102
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 1: on them because their matches usually tend to be pretty chaotic.

1103
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's we're getting to that point in the

1104
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 1: season where desperation is starting to creep in for some

1105
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: of these relegation teams, and it might lend itself to

1106
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: creating a little bit of value on some of these

1107
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 1: teams at the bottom of the table who have been

1108
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 1: underperforming all season. All right, let's move over to one

1109
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:41,279
Speaker 1: of my favorite leagues in the world League. Huh. I

1110
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 1: love nice plus half a goal at even money on

1111
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 1: the road against Leon. This price is too high for

1112
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 1: a layon defense that has been horrific this season. After

1113
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 1: twenty three matches, Leon is sixteenth in league non penalty

1114
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 1: expectacles allowed at one point three to nine per match,

1115
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 1: which is not what you expect from a club of

1116
00:50:57,400 --> 00:50:59,800
Speaker 1: their size and stature. The issues can really be boiled

1117
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:01,919
Speaker 1: down the fact that they're creating or they're allowing way

1118
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,720
Speaker 1: too many high quality chances. Opponents have created a whopping

1119
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 1: thirty four big scoring chances against them, including three to

1120
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:11,120
Speaker 1: Monaco this past weekend. Now, enters a Nice offense that

1121
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 1: has been incredibly prolific under new manager Christoph Galtier, even

1122
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 1: though they're playing out of a four to four to two.

1123
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 1: The system that he's created under Nice and what he

1124
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 1: did really with Lil last season, he's actually improved the

1125
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 1: offense here with Nice. They're under the four to four

1126
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 1: to two, averaging one point seven to two expected goals

1127
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes while only allowing one point one. Nie

1128
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 1: is also incredible for him away from home. They've gone

1129
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 1: unbeaten in their last eight matches and overall for the

1130
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 1: season have a plus four expected goal differential. Leon is

1131
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 1: the second best pressing team in France by pass per

1132
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:43,319
Speaker 1: defensive action and have the most high turnovers that have

1133
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 1: led to shots this year in league on but Niee

1134
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 1: is a top seven team in offensive passes per defensive

1135
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 1: action and pressure success rate allowed, so I don't think

1136
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,880
Speaker 1: they'll have too much trouble playing through Leon's press, especially

1137
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:57,399
Speaker 1: with since Brudi Gamaras has left now for Newcastle. Niice

1138
00:51:57,400 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 1: did have a really bad home loss on Sunday to

1139
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 1: Claire on Foot, but on Wednesday they smashed Marseille in

1140
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 1: the Coupe de France. So it seems that there was

1141
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 1: just really just one bad day on Sunday for Christoph

1142
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 1: Galtier's men. I have this match projected very close to

1143
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 1: a pick them, so I love niece plus have a

1144
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 1: goal at minus one ten. All right, let's move on

1145
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 1: to our favorite segment of the week. It is our

1146
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 1: favorite underdogs of the week. If you follow Anthony or

1147
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 1: myself on Twitter, you'll see that our underdogs are not

1148
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:34,240
Speaker 1: doing too well right now, and they're losing in pretty

1149
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:36,319
Speaker 1: horrific fashion. And I want to rant a little bit

1150
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 1: because I don't care if any of my underdogs lose

1151
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 1: five to nothing then just get smashed. I don't care anymore.

1152
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 1: But could we stop blowing two goal leads? And Ers

1153
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 1: is the latest one to do it. They did it

1154
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:47,840
Speaker 1: against Marseille on Friday. That's now four for me on

1155
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:51,800
Speaker 1: the season. Also had two teams blow second half leads.

1156
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 1: I've had a stoppage time equalizer. It's been painful. It's

1157
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 1: been painful for myself and both of us, really all

1158
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 1: three of us on this. So why don't you get

1159
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 1: us started? And then I'll give the underdog that's probably

1160
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 1: going to lose in extremely painful fashion.

1161
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:09,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, we gave up Burnley in leads and

1162
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 2: you know, both of them never had leads in the

1163
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:14,360
Speaker 2: second half, so we can't really say we you know,

1164
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 2: we have bad beats there, but both did tie and

1165
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:19,319
Speaker 2: covered for us, so that was good at least, you know,

1166
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 2: the main part of the bet. And when we say

1167
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 2: these underdogs, you know, typically what I do, and you'll

1168
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:25,360
Speaker 2: see it in the app is I'll put you know,

1169
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 2: one one and a half or one point three, you know,

1170
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:31,280
Speaker 2: units on the spread that I like, you know, for example,

1171
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:33,680
Speaker 2: today it was leads plus a half, and then I'll

1172
00:53:33,760 --> 00:53:35,919
Speaker 2: sprinkle on the money line, you know, point three point

1173
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:38,719
Speaker 2: five units. That way, you know, when the game ends

1174
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:40,319
Speaker 2: in a tie and you don't catch the money line,

1175
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,719
Speaker 2: you're still like, okay, I made a unit on this game.

1176
00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:44,799
Speaker 3: And so that's typically where I like to go with that.

1177
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:46,600
Speaker 3: If you follow me in the app, you know I've

1178
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:50,040
Speaker 3: already played this one at five to one Saints. But

1179
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 3: when the Saints go marching in to Old Trafford they

1180
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:55,319
Speaker 3: played earlier this year, everything was so different than it

1181
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 3: was early in the year.

1182
00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 2: Saints were struggling defensively. It usually takes them some time

1183
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:01,759
Speaker 2: to get the pres yes, and get really going. But

1184
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 2: they seem to be, you know, playing really well right now.

1185
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 3: They've beaten west Ham, now they've beaten Tottenham, they drew City,

1186
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:08,840
Speaker 3: They've played well against the big sides and they have

1187
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 3: major concerns. Maybe we'll get to come back here instead

1188
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:14,440
Speaker 3: of a blown lead, because Saints have really shown that

1189
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:16,359
Speaker 3: they have a lot of energy and that has been

1190
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 3: a major issue for United in the second halves of

1191
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 3: ragnet games. They seem to lose the press, they seem

1192
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 3: to lose focus, they struggle to continue to play like

1193
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:26,399
Speaker 3: they've played pretty well in the first half.

1194
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 2: So I think it's a good spot for Saints. I

1195
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:29,120
Speaker 2: make it much lower.

1196
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 3: I'm in plus three eighty I think plus three eighty

1197
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:37,919
Speaker 3: five on Saints. So happy to play against the Red

1198
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 3: Devils here and grab some Saints away from home.

1199
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:42,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that. I'll probably end up playing as well.

1200
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 1: I have Saints at plus three sixty nine, so pretty

1201
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:48,840
Speaker 1: close to you as well. I'm going to go to

1202
00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 1: Germany Unjan Berlin plus three ten at home against Dortmund.

1203
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 1: We talk about spots, this is a fantastic spot for

1204
00:54:56,120 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 1: Union Berlin. They did lose their first match in six

1205
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 1: matches to Augsburg two nothing last Saturday, but it was

1206
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:06,440
Speaker 1: a very fraudulent score line Union Berlin one unexpected goals

1207
00:55:06,480 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 1: two to one point six. The one goal from Augsburg

1208
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:11,600
Speaker 1: was just a goalkeeping mistake and the other one was just.

1209
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, they passed it directly to the My rant.

1210
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 3: To the week, what the hell is Junjon doing playing

1211
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 3: out from the back there passing it right to Osburg

1212
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:24,759
Speaker 3: one till I don't know, like nine, It was like

1213
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 3: nine am Eastern. I was like, this is way too

1214
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:28,280
Speaker 3: early in the morning to be giving away these goals.

1215
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course Augsburg just scored one from way outside

1216
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 1: the box. Uh whatever, Who cares? Union Blain played to

1217
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 1: to expected goals, So it was it was a very

1218
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:41,240
Speaker 1: fraudulent score line. Union Blin now has won the expected

1219
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 1: goals battle eight times in their last ten matches. Now

1220
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:46,280
Speaker 1: they have a pretty good match up here against Dortmann,

1221
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:49,000
Speaker 1: who isn't a lookhead spot. They have a europe League

1222
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:53,839
Speaker 1: playoff against Scottish club Rangers on Thursday. They're obviously coming

1223
00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 1: off that five too thrashing from Leverkusten this past weekend. Honestly,

1224
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 1: even though Dorman's in second place, they really haven't been

1225
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 1: that impressive this season. We've been complaining a lot on

1226
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:08,880
Speaker 1: this podcast about the regression that's supposed to come for

1227
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 1: the Leverkusen offense. Well, the Dormant offense is right there

1228
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:14,440
Speaker 1: with them. They've scored fifty four goals off of thirty

1229
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:16,960
Speaker 1: eight point nine expectacles. I understand they have early Holland

1230
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 1: and he makes up for a lot of that, But

1231
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 1: on the flip side of that, Doorman's defense, I understand

1232
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:26,840
Speaker 1: they're due for some positive aggression. They think it stinks

1233
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:31,359
Speaker 1: they've kept two clean sheets in the Bundesliga all season long.

1234
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:34,480
Speaker 1: When these two teams met earlier in the season, Dormund

1235
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 1: won four to two, but only created zero point nine

1236
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:41,319
Speaker 1: expected goals and had am easily twenty two touches in

1237
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 1: Union Billain's penalty area. So we talk about spots. This

1238
00:56:44,920 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 1: is about as good as going to get, especially Union

1239
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 1: Blain being at home with Dormant and a look ahead spot.

1240
00:56:49,880 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 1: So at plus three ten, I only have Union Blin

1241
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:54,520
Speaker 1: at plus one ninety. So I think there's a ton

1242
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:57,080
Speaker 1: of value on them. But let's hope they don't do

1243
00:56:57,480 --> 00:56:58,840
Speaker 1: what they did earlier when we picked them as a

1244
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:01,360
Speaker 1: underdog and blue the two goal lead, which I'm pretty

1245
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:04,279
Speaker 1: sure they did the Leverkusen a little while ago, so

1246
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:06,719
Speaker 1: all right that I'll do it for our underdogs. Let's

1247
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:09,440
Speaker 1: move on to the final segment, our best bets of

1248
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:12,600
Speaker 1: the Premier League weekend. Anthony, where's your best bet in

1249
00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 1: England this weekend?

1250
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 3: Brentford draw note bet minus one point fifteen at home

1251
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 3: against Crystal Palace. This is the two biggest home and

1252
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:22,400
Speaker 3: away splits in the entire league. When you look at

1253
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 3: Crystal Palace this year, they are minus point eight expected

1254
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 3: goals per ninety away from home. That is among the

1255
00:57:28,760 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 3: worst in the league, compared to at home, where they've

1256
00:57:31,160 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 3: actually been quite good. On the flip side, Brentford at

1257
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:36,920
Speaker 3: home this year plus point four to seven expected goal

1258
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 3: difference at home. So we're dealing with a huge swing

1259
00:57:40,040 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 3: with these two teams as to who's home and who's away.

1260
00:57:42,600 --> 00:57:45,520
Speaker 3: Brentford should be getting both Lisa and and Way move

1261
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 3: back in the lineup. They came off the bench in

1262
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:50,520
Speaker 3: the loss to Manchester City. I think Thomas Frank was

1263
00:57:50,880 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 3: managing them knowing that this game on Saturday is more

1264
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 3: important than the away trip to City.

1265
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 2: They were not going to win anyway.

1266
00:57:57,200 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 3: So I think both of those guys are going to

1267
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 3: be back, and they may get Ivan Tony back off

1268
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:04,439
Speaker 3: the bench. I don't know that he'll start, but he's

1269
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:07,560
Speaker 3: another attacking piece. David Riott didn't make a mistake, but

1270
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:09,800
Speaker 3: he's back in goal as well. So Brentford is getting

1271
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:13,600
Speaker 3: healthier generally speaking. They've got a positive attacking regression coming

1272
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 3: and they've got the huge home away splits that I

1273
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:17,960
Speaker 3: cannot get past. So even though they've lost six in

1274
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 3: a row, I'm grabbing the floor on the market here

1275
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 3: on Brentford and I am backing them to win at

1276
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:24,720
Speaker 3: home against the Palace.

1277
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I'd probably be on Brentford with

1278
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 1: you as well. I'm going to go Southampton plus one

1279
00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:34,240
Speaker 1: against Manchester United at Old Trafford. Manchester United did draw

1280
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 1: with Burnley one one. It was kind of an undeserving result.

1281
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:39,280
Speaker 1: But what we saw in that match is that the

1282
00:58:39,320 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 1: pressing under Rangnik it was really good for forty five

1283
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:44,240
Speaker 1: minutes and then they just got gassed for the rest

1284
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:45,880
Speaker 1: of the forty five minutes and Burnley was able to

1285
00:58:45,880 --> 00:58:48,720
Speaker 1: get through and scored the equalizing goal. Well, now here

1286
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:52,320
Speaker 1: comes to Southampton team that just absolutely smashed Tottenham in

1287
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 1: the first half on Wednesday, and really for the match,

1288
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:57,600
Speaker 1: twenty three shots compared only ten for Spurs on the road.

1289
00:58:57,920 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 1: So if they bring that type of pressing, which they

1290
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: had around nine and a half passes per defensive action

1291
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 1: against the United team that hasn't played a team in

1292
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 1: a long time that's going to press at the rate

1293
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 1: that Southampton is, man the Saints are really just going

1294
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:11,960
Speaker 1: to punch them and really keep them in the own half. Really,

1295
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:14,120
Speaker 1: the only match that we can really go back and

1296
00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:15,960
Speaker 1: point to, hey, this is kind of similar to what

1297
00:59:16,040 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 1: Southampton did is Brentford and what did Brentford do? They

1298
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:20,960
Speaker 1: smashed United in that first half. They're currently close to

1299
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:23,200
Speaker 1: two expected goals in the first forty five minutes and

1300
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 1: really should have beaten United a few weeks ago. So

1301
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 1: I love Southampton plus one on the road here, team

1302
00:59:28,440 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 1: that's really trending up playing it very good form against

1303
00:59:32,080 --> 00:59:34,000
Speaker 1: a Manchester United team that I believe is one of

1304
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:36,640
Speaker 1: the more overrated teams in the Premier League. That'll do

1305
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:39,720
Speaker 1: it for another episode of Wonder Goal. Thank you all

1306
00:59:39,760 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 1: for listening. Make sure to download the Action Network app

1307
00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 1: please If you can, go leave this five star review.

1308
00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 1: It really helps us out. Our illustrio solist Michael Leeboff

1309
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:52,160
Speaker 1: will be back in the host chair on Monday morning

1310
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 1: as we go through the Champions League Round of sixteen,

1311
00:59:56,520 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 1: which returns next week along the Europa League playoff us So,

1312
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,960
Speaker 1: for Anthony and myself, thank you listening and good luck

1313
01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:04,920
Speaker 1: duaiting a special

1314
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 2: M HM.