WEBVTT - Surveillance: Vaccines & Variants With JHU 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.200 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:13.080 with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownowitz Jay Lee, we bring 0:00:13.119 --> 0:00:17.159 you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and 0:00:17.280 --> 0:00:23.280 international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance, an Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:29.680 dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal. Let's 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:33.400 bringing Eric Friedman us Band Cassett Management, Chief Investment Officer. Eric. 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.080 Let's start right here and not with Ted Lasso. I'll 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:39.360 save you. Don't worry. You've asked the important question. Is 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:41.960 this just a little correction or is this a transition 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:45.760 into something bigger? Which one is it? Jonathan, We think 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:48.400 it is a just a pause as opposed to a 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:51.920 phase transition. Really two reasons behind that. Number one is 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:55.520 we think there's this portcoll between or we're calling Horizon 0:00:55.600 --> 0:00:58.600 one and Horizon to Horizon one is the reopening investment 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:02.720 Horizon the gra usual mobility increases, more flights and and 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:06.240 more mobility across cities. Horizon too, is what happens once 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:09.560 we're already there, once that reopening occurred. And so we 0:01:09.640 --> 0:01:11.800 do think that the fits and starts that we're seeing 0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:15.480 in Horizon one will have corrections like this, And we 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:17.399 also think that probably a little nuance here is the 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:20.280 bond market is likely already pricing in horizon to the 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:24.160 eternal value of FED funds likely lower, as well as 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:28.759 general productivity and demographics weaker. So we think this this 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:31.639 push pull continue, but we're still bullish. We're still sticking 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.399 with that that that growth mentality. Eric, you're write an 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:38.560 extremely sober adult note. We don't see enough of those. 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:41.560 It's from a button down banker with belt and suspenders. 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:45.800 I get it. When there's a phase transition, how do 0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:49.640 you know when to make that transition to a different 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:54.840 portfolio allocation. The biggest thing that we're focused on early 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:57.520 three variables. Number one is the dollar, and what we're 0:01:57.520 --> 0:01:59.559 looking at the dollar is a is a rise above 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:01.560 ninety for ninety four and a half the d X 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:04.400 Y or one twelve in the trade WAD Dollar Index. 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:07.360 Number two would be the tenure. We think a test 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:09.680 of let's call it one tin down to one percent, 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:12.880 that would signify that the bond market is pricing and 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:16.000 really worse rising to by our parlance. And I think 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:18.400 the final is going to be our viewpoint, and earnings 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:20.520 is mentioned earlier, and Toto does a great job of 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:23.280 this talking about rate of change. We are in a 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:26.120 very delicate position right now with in terms of both 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.960 revenue forecasts as well as earnings forecast. If we see 0:02:30.000 --> 0:02:32.840 some deterioration there as we get deeper into this recording season, 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:34.920 that was signified to us that we need to come 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.440 off that growth mindset, that that pro risk mindset in 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:40.800 the more of a of a neutral position. That's where 0:02:40.720 --> 0:02:43.560 our biases right now. Eric, you have bond guys like 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.520 Jeff Gunlock of Double Line saying that stocks are attractive 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.400 on a relative basis because a one on the tenure 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:54.680 doesn't make sense. How are you thinking about relative value? Yeah, 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:57.520 it's a great question, Taylor. Basically two things we're looking at. 0:02:57.600 --> 0:02:59.880 Number one is if you look at the risk premium, 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:02.520 so wonkish term and basically shore there's a difference between 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:06.280 you know, the dividend yield of global equities versus UH 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:10.600 tenure or even global global rates. It's really attractive. Stocks 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:13.680 look very attractive versus fixed income versus their own history. 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:17.120 Stocks are is certainly in the top quartile of expensive, 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.320 So we think fair value for the tenure, Taylor is 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:23.320 likely around one sixty one. Doesn't mean we have to 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:28.000 get there immediately, but our viewpoint is a gradual re retracing, 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:31.080 if you will. Upward in bondyls suggest that that stocks 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:33.280 probably had a little more value here, but you have 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:35.760 to look at them on both an absolute basis, from 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:39.040 a relative value standpoint, on a risk premium basis as 0:03:39.080 --> 0:03:42.000 well versus their own history. So relative values certainly favors 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:44.520 equities that were fixed incoming. Eric, what on earth is 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:46.960 fair value in a bond market with a huge monster 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.920 sized and sensitive by a price in sensitive buy? What's 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:52.280 fair value in the treasury market these days? How do 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:55.360 we even come up with that? They're almost are three 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:58.600 waves of buyers, Jonathan. You have you have the general 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:01.360 speculations of people making making bets on where ten years ago. 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:04.680 You have hedgers in terms of mortgage as well as 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:07.640 as pension pension bars, and you have i'd say, just 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:11.960 a steady drumbeat of FED participation. So tough to have 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:15.360 an edge on speculators. But if you look at what's 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.479 happening in the mortgage market, if you know what's happening 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:21.320 with with respect to pension funds, those liabilities are getting 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:24.279 more expensive, So that's almost like that that short gamma 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:27.440 position continues to grow. That means people are stepping back 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:29.760 into the bond market. So again we think that position 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:32.400 gets cleaned up and a gradual retracement up to that 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:34.960 one sixty level is more likely. But again it will 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:37.680 happen on a on a very phased, very gradual basis. 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:39.440 All Right, we've gotta naven that it's gonna catch up 0:04:39.480 --> 0:04:45.880 set right now in the pandemic. It has been a 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.880 joy to speak to Buck then Sadi with Johns Hopkins 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:51.240 or expertise and emergency medicine. I want to go there 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:54.040 today back the instead of the geography that you are 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:58.560 expert at in emergency rooms at the Johns Hopkins Hospital, 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:03.280 there's gotta be a certain percentage of people working there 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:06.680 who are unvaccinated. There's got to be a certain percentage 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:11.280 of people coming into the emergency room unvaccinated. What do 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:17.000 you do the regarding employees of John's Hopkins Hospital. We 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:21.440 are vaccinated. We all do show our vaccine status um 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:25.760 that is now documented and recorded regarding unvaccinated patients, that 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:28.200 we have that knowledge on who's vaccinated and who's not. 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:32.360 My practice is to gown up and be ready if 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:35.880 I'm unsure of their vaccine status or their COVID status. Doctor. 0:05:35.920 --> 0:05:38.200 I was very surprised to read the following state in 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:41.240 the New York Times that around six workers in the 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:44.159 city's public hospital system of vaccinated. Given what's happened in 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:46.360 the last year, I would have expected that number to 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:49.880 be far, far higher. Where is that resistance coming from, doctor, 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:53.279 So we feel like a lot of that resistance is 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:57.880 coming from our ancillary services. UM. There are still individuals who, 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:02.400 despite working in public health hospitals UM, have misconceptions or 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:07.880 concerns around But the medical systems have vaccine hesitancy, have UM, 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:12.360 you know, victims of misinformation, and so it is really 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:15.279 difficult to prove a counter factual. And that is something 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.400 we're still struggling with in all sectors of society, not 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:21.040 just public health hospitals. Don't to many people are characterizing 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:24.000 this is a political party issue. Do you think that's helpful? 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:27.839 It is not. This is not a political party issue. 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:29.960 This is not a national issue. This is a global 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:33.159 issue that affects every single one of us. Until we 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:36.360 reduce the amount of circulating virus and we get vaccinated, 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:38.880 we don't get to return back to normal. And it's 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:44.360 as simple as that, doctor. Are the vaccines effective against delta? 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:49.799 Vaccines are effectivigates delta. It is very common to see 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:54.039 individuals who still get sick despite having vaccines. We see 0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:57.359 this every year with the flu um the fator vaccines 0:06:57.400 --> 0:07:00.839 that they show a scent effectiveness two we after getting 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:04.360 your second dose. But that does mean that twelve out 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:07.640 of a hundred people will potentially still get the illness. 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.120 But we know that it's the disease faring vaccines. They're 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:14.080 less likely to be sivilial, less likely tendive, and the 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:16.600 I see, less likely to die. What do you think 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:20.000 it's going to take to see if schools can reopen 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:22.160 or not. In the fall, we were having a conversation 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:25.480 here that the markets perhaps might actually believe that something 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:28.720 is wrong if schools don't reopen. If that is the catalyst, 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:30.840 what do you think it takes for us to get there? 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:33.720 You know, I think we've learned a lot about how 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:36.960 to reopen school safety. In the spring of this year, 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:42.080 my daughter's school open. They used pods that they you know, 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:46.800 stegreg They created pods of play um classrooms didn't interact 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:50.520 those temperature checks yes, you know, it's a bit strange 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:53.000 taking your child into a temperature check every morning. But 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.559 I felt perfectly safe that my child was in school 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:58.520 with the precautions that were put in place. But I 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:00.600 want to talk to you about the too alogy and 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:03.240 microbiology because I just don't buy this for a minute. 0:08:03.800 --> 0:08:09.080 We cured ourselves from the horrific child killer diphtheria. I 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:11.600 was on the back end of polio, Taylor, I believe 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:16.600 her amery mentioned earlier Senator McConnell's battle personally with polio. 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:19.640 I don't buy it for a minute that we haven't 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:25.440 done this before from bacteria. We got vaccinated. From VERA viruses, 0:08:25.600 --> 0:08:31.480 we got vaccinated. What's different this time on? There's nothing different. 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:34.880 Vaccine innovations of it ahead of the curve um. Luckily, 0:08:34.960 --> 0:08:38.120 we had the mr and A vaccine studies that we're 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:41.000 done for cancer drugs, which allowed us to find a 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:45.480 suitable vector um for all the vaccine and implement it rapidly. 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:48.120 We also do have viral back to vaccines as well, 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:51.320 which are extremely innovative UM, so nothing is different. We 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:53.559 have actually used all of our lessons learned and applied 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:58.040 them to the COVID N pandemic the challenges therapeutics. So 0:08:58.280 --> 0:09:02.440 with bacteria, we have to biotics that affects the ability 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:06.440 of the bacteria to reproduce and stop infection. Viruses have 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:09.360 always been more trippy, tricky due to the way that 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:12.959 they replicate. How do we incentivize these people? I mean 0:09:13.000 --> 0:09:15.840 people are saying, give them money, do this, do this, 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:18.640 do this. How do we get this fixed in a 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:23.719 Joe Biden speed? So there is two groups. There is 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:28.960 the hardcore conspiracy theories vaccines. They're you cannot change right, 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:31.120 I got it, I got it. But the majority of 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:35.479 the people are people that have a underestimated their vulnerability 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:40.360 to getting sick, second, overestimated the side effects of the vaccine, 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:42.880 and because they're kind of just lost, they have just 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:45.520 do nothing. Now that is a group that we target. 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:48.880 We to promote positive messaging around the vaccine. We need 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:53.439 to educate people with clear, concise facts about the true 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:58.240 risks of vaccination and stop over inflating the few side 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:00.760 effects that have been seen all the ice later cases 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:04.079 in social media. Do you think full authorization would have 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:07.040 pushed this issue forward and move away from just emergency 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:12.120 youth authorization of these vaccines. Unfortunately, yes, right. So I 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:16.200 think for the lay public, the difference between full authorization 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:19.520 and emergency youth authorization is one of the big sticking 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:23.040 points in their vaccine confidence. The truth of the matter 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:27.040 is the way that these studies were conducted was rigorous, 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:29.680 just as we would have conducted any other new drug 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:34.360 intervention study. UM. Due to the national reporting software, the 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:38.360 v A R EER software from CDC, we have national 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:42.200 reporting on vaccine side effects, which is phenomenal, and the 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:46.520 use case here is in the millions. And so I 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:49.120 think that having that sticky label that says this is 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:52.959 fully authorized, I think will improve people's confidence, although scientifically 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:55.840 it is unnecessary. Don't We appreciate your effort, that's for sure. 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:57.640 Thank you very much for being with us this morning. 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:00.560 Dr Bacti, Han Sarti. There, John's Hopkins Universe, the Associate 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:03.400 Professor of Emergency Medicine, on some of the issues time, 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:06.439 and those issues are always far more complex than some 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:14.760 people might want to debate. Right now, we go to 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:18.960 your content where content is king Michael Nathanson with Craig Moffatt. 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:23.559 Moffatt Nathanson has just been spectacular on all of this 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:25.559 stuff that we watch at home. And is there really 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:29.280 an opportunity to make money at it? Michael Nathanson, where's 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:33.120 the profit? Magnan Decide ellsse E says, it's all about profit. 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:36.040 It's all about getting out there and making money. Is 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:41.200 there an identifiable profit in the streaming business at this point? 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:43.599 There isn't how the profit is going back to the 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:46.640 consumer given all the discount it's being done. The consumer 0:11:46.760 --> 0:11:50.400 is grabbing the profit and companies to subsidize from consumers 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:53.920 content habits. At this point, Comcast was able to make 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.840 that shift in cable TV to get the real profit 0:11:57.120 --> 0:12:00.240 to real cash flow. Do you model an equivalency year 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:04.160 to what comcasted in cable TV or is this time different? 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:08.760 This time is different, Tom, We Netflix a goiling company. 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:10.640 The next three or four years, every people will make 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:14.080 money money to define this free cash flow, we just 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:17.080 see big black holes everywhere, right, And that's why you 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:21.240 had Discovery Warners Merge. That's why Comcast by comes rumored 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:24.599 to get together. These businesses are really capital intensive. I 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.520 don't think that's the same dynamics as the linear businesses 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:33.199 that we all do pring years. And Michael, this seems 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:38.000 to be abroad sectical and That's what gets my attention here. 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:41.440 This is neutral Netflix, neutral Weald Disney Company, neutral road coude. 0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:46.120 You see this across the board, head, Jonathan. The problem is, 0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:48.120 and I think it's to your previous guest stuff the 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.040 cost of money. You've got to look out five ten 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:55.480 years to see evaluation here be supportive to me. It's 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.600 just a long way to go, and everyone's so confident 0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:01.880 about their data points that I just think the other 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.280 side of this trade, right, I mean, we know streaming 0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:07.559 is the future, but the market has overpriced these assets 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:09.600 and I'm just gonna wait for a better entry points 0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:11.960 at this point in time. Let's talk about that. What 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:14.160 would it take for you to say I'm wrong? Always 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:16.280 a good exercise, Michael. What would it take in the 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:19.079 coming year? Is there anything? Well? I would say a 0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:21.440 couple of things. One is our view is that the 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:25.080 US is a very competitive market and it's hard to 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.760 eat profits out in the U s streaming business. I 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:30.720 think you need to see more people move into the sidelines, right. 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.920 You would see more consolidation. You would see Apple on Amazon, 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:36.560 you know, kind of step back and you would start 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:39.559 to see you need Netflix to start growing more quickly 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:42.720 in the US, which would point to a higher upside 0:13:42.800 --> 0:13:45.800 you know, penetration case, right, So I think here you 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:49.480 need competition to lessen and you need um you know, 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:54.040 growth actually starts re accelerating against That's one. And then secondly, 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:57.160 I think internationally, you really need to see some of 0:13:57.360 --> 0:14:01.440 the developing markets where there's very low were pricing really 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.120 start to show science of pricing power. So those are 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.199 to me the two things. Because you know, the profits 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:10.440 right now are in the US potentially, and the growth 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:13.920 is coming from low market places like India, low price 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:17.640 pricing markets, they just don't have great returns on invested capital. 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.560 And Michael, I've heard this a lot. The US customer 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:24.080 is more profitable than an international customer. How do we 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.760 get them to be even? How long does that take? Well, 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:30.720 it goes to you know, a big part of the 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:33.520 chaction story is developing markets, right, So you have Latin 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:37.040 America and age specific as the drivers of growth. But 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:40.040 those price points are really low, right. The rest of 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:43.040 the world price point outside Europe could be one half 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:45.800 to one third price of American customers. So it's just 0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:49.200 can get a long time tailor for pricing to start elevating, right, 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:52.520 that's and before the pricing can elevate, you need to 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:56.320 give consumers a ton of content to make the product sticky, right, 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:57.720 So you need to an invest and this is the 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:01.400 biggest challenge. You to invest tons of dollions of dollars, 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:05.320 billions of dollars to make the content except you sticky 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:08.400 enough so hold on to customers and then too drive 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.560 pricing right, So it takes years investment to get to 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:14.800 that place which you start raising pricing again. The other 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:19.040 point that you made pretty well is about consolidation. I 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:23.160 was reading another of your colleagues notes talking about Amazon 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:26.840 purchasing MGM for about eight and a half billion dollars. 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:30.200 Why is it Netflix making more purchases should they be 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:34.960 What does consolidation in the industry look like to you? Yeah, 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:37.560 there's not a lot they can do. I mean, the biggest, 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:41.160 the biggest reason why you make a better on MGM 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:45.080 is for franchises. Right. The speed of which Disney built 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:49.720 out the director consumer business is due to the speed 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.240 tied to their ability to really lift Marble Pixar, Star 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:57.120 Wars Universe in streaming. So but there's just not a 0:15:57.120 --> 0:15:59.800 lot of franchises like that still available MGM has a 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:03.760 few you Netflix w are going to do this? Uh, 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.320 MGM is really not a lot that that I see. 0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:10.200 Now what's we bought? Um? I worry, you know, as 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:12.920 the analysts covering the industry, that you're gonna see Apple 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:16.200 on Amazon for even more money to work in streaming 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:18.880 because you know they have other reasons to do it 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:21.440 besides trying to make a profit. Michael, just a bit 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:23.000 of a tricky line this morning, so we're gonna have 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:24.440 to cut it short. But you know, we always enjoy 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:26.800 catching up with the sir, and we enjoy your work too. 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:29.200 Send up regards to the team that was Michael Nathans 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:37.080 and Muffin Nathans and senior research analysts. This is a 0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:40.880 joy because he has done public service for America across 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:45.000 so many areas, including ambassadors to Japan and now Senator 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:48.800 from his very much his Tennessee, Bill Haggerty joins us 0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:52.640 the Republican from Tennessee. This morning, Senator Haggerty, I have 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:57.040 to go to the stunning Washington Post analysis this morning 0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:02.160 of the unvaccinated. You are eating spokesman on this. How 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:06.159 are you going to convince the unvaccinated of your Tennessee 0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:10.880 to get it together and get vaccinated. I think we're 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:15.080 off to incredibly a good start thanks to Operation Warp Speed. 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:17.720 I don't think there's enough credit given to the progress 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.080 that we made here at an imprecedented level here in America. 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:23.280 In Tennessee. I've been very clear. I've taken the vaccine. 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:26.680 My mother, who is eighty nine years old, is taking 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:30.359 the vaccine. I lead by example. Uh. We continue to 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:33.439 encourage people to make its personal choice for folks, of course, 0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:36.760 but I've certainly been clear that I've looked at the data, 0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:38.879 and I think the right decision, certainly for me and 0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:41.560 my family was to do just that. How do you sell? 0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:43.960 And we talked to french Hill a little rock the 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:47.320 other day with the same challenges. I would suggest Arkansas 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:51.520 frankly a grimmer story than any Tennessee. But what's the 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:55.720 prescription you have with your knowledge of Nashville media and 0:17:55.840 --> 0:18:00.000 Tennessee business, what's the prescription. What's the plan to jump 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:04.440 start this? As we hear from President Biden, I think 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:07.359 that you know, as we look at where we're headed 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:12.639 right now, Uh, the numbers continue to look much better spitality, 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:15.719 and we just need to continue to talk about that 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:19.240 positive outcome, that positive result, and encourage people to continue 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:22.000 to get behind it. As school reopens, things get back 0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:24.120 into the swing of things, will probably see another pick 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:26.960 up in inoculation. One final question on the Senator, because 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:29.840 I know Taylor Riggs has some important questions as well. 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:32.960 Senator Haggerty, what do you need from former President Trump 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:39.040 to send a message to the unvaccinated? President Trump is 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:41.879 having a hard time sending any messages thanks to the 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:45.200 censorship of a big tech His normal means of communication 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:48.720 has been incredibly stifled. I think that's incredibly troubling. Um 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:52.320 in terms of his message to people, he was no 0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:55.200 one worked harder than President Trump to put a vaccine 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:57.440 in place. I think people know that. I think he 0:18:57.480 --> 0:18:59.639 can convey that, but he put it from innocent amount 0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:02.240 of work in place, with operation work speed to make 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.480 this fact seem possible, not only for America but for 0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.359 the rest of the world. I think that's an incredible example. 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:10.240 He should talk about that when he can. Senator A 0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:13.199 pivot with me, if you will please to infrastructure. What 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.560 is the past to a bipartisan five hundred and seventy 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:19.840 nine billion dollar infrastructure deal? Very hard to say, uh, 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:22.320 you know, Chuck Schumer today is planning to put a 0:19:22.320 --> 0:19:25.360 procedural vote in place to start the process on this. 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.760 Yet we haven't seen any text. We don't know the 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:31.760 content of it. I haven't seen anything. You know, this 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:35.520 sounds remarkably similar to something that we've all seen before. 0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:37.320 You remember, you have to pass the bill before you 0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:39.919 can see what's in it. Obamacare two point oh, that 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:43.160 didn't work out well for America. So we have a lot, 0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:45.280 a lot to see in a lot more work that 0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:47.879 needs to be done before I can comment on exactly 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:50.080 you know what's in the bill and how we should 0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:53.600 proceed on it. Is this two path approach still the 0:19:53.680 --> 0:19:56.919 right way to go? Well, certainly not the path that 0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:59.280 I would take. You know, I'm a businessman my entire career. 0:19:59.640 --> 0:20:01.440 You know, I step back and look at this and say, 0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:05.200 what's happening here. You've got a two path process, one 0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:07.480 that you know, a lot of effort has gone into play. 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.000 I think I respect my colleagues who have worked hard 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:12.800 to put a bipartisan plan in place. But as you know, 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:15.760 when you negotiate a deal, often what's even more important 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:18.440 is what you negotiate out of a deal. Yet, we've 0:20:18.440 --> 0:20:21.040 got the Biden administration, We've got Nancy Pelosi and Chuck 0:20:21.080 --> 0:20:24.119 Schumer talking about pushing everything that was negotiated out of 0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:27.159 the deal right alongside. In fact, Nancy Pelosia said that 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:29.200 she's not going to even look at the bipartisan deal 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:33.879 unless the not, you know, completely partisan reconciliation package is 0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:36.679 put forward to I wouldn't call it a reconciliation package. 0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:39.600 Is just another reckless tax and spending program that they're 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:41.960 trying to show through a massive program, something that we've 0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:43.879 never seen before, and I think it's going to have 0:20:43.880 --> 0:20:46.840 devastating effects in the economy. So I'm very concerned about 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:50.240 enabling this partisan package to go through. Under the guise 0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:55.080 of a partisan infrastructure package, it's far smaller. Senator Hackety, 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:59.439 I am fascinated what your prescription is for your Republican party. 0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.800 So many of the interviews we have with Republicans and 0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:07.200 with Democrats, is a liberal trunch of the Democratic Party 0:21:07.640 --> 0:21:12.960 really troubling for moderate Democrats. Do the Republicans respond to 0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:17.760 that by being more staunchly conservative or by moving to 0:21:17.840 --> 0:21:22.040 a Lamar Alexander like middle. I think what we need 0:21:22.080 --> 0:21:24.880 to do is continue to convey what's actually happening here. 0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:27.280 We need more business people like me in Washington. I 0:21:27.280 --> 0:21:29.600 think that's the that's the point. We have a hard 0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:32.800 time conveying the essence of what's occurring here, but right 0:21:32.840 --> 0:21:35.560 now what we're doing. Because we've already seen at one 0:21:35.600 --> 0:21:38.480 point nine trillion dollar package moved through a holy partisan 0:21:38.520 --> 0:21:40.679 basis back in March of this year. That's roughly ten 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:45.639 percent of our GDP. They're talking now about dumping more 0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:48.960 of our GDP into this so called infrastructure package. It's 0:21:48.960 --> 0:21:51.359 going to be massively inflationary. We need to convey that 0:21:51.440 --> 0:21:55.200 when you hear we hear moderate Democrats like Joe Manchin 0:21:55.280 --> 0:21:57.640 say he doesn't want to put something through that isn't 0:21:57.640 --> 0:22:00.360 paid for, he doesn't want to increase the debt. These 0:22:00.400 --> 0:22:02.400 are things that we need to push back on and say, well, 0:22:02.640 --> 0:22:04.320 it's gonna pay for itself. You've got to look at 0:22:04.320 --> 0:22:06.320 how they're talking about paying for it, and they're talking 0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:10.440 about crushing taxes on job creators. They're talking about killing 0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:14.080 capital formation by putting capital gains taxes in place. Those 0:22:14.119 --> 0:22:16.680 types of policies are going to be devastating to our economy. 0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:19.280 The American public is smart enough to understand this. We 0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:21.680 need more business people talking about this in a way 0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:24.040