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Speaker 1: They're Happy Thursday, and potentially for me, it's the last

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Speaker 1: episode drop of the week. I obviously will have my

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Speaker 1: newsphere and all this stuff, So Happy Thursday. This is

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Speaker 1: my sort of extended weekend drop of the Chuck Toodcast.

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Speaker 1: Got a little more State of the Union fallout, a

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Speaker 1: little more Iran and Cuba fall up, but a primary

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Speaker 1: focus I want to make is get you ready for

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Speaker 1: all things Texas primaries. We'll start that, we'll do a

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Speaker 1: lot of it. Next week. We are days away, we're

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Speaker 1: no longer weeks away from the official start of the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six primary season. And if you're a political

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Speaker 1: junkie and you're signed up for me on this, I

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Speaker 1: know what the expectations are. So we're going to We're

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Speaker 1: gonna dig into the numbers, We're gonna dig into the weeds.

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Speaker 1: We're going to see some interesting, interesting closing ad by

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Speaker 1: mister tall Rico on that side. And of course we've

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Speaker 1: got such a week. We know the Republicans are going

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Speaker 1: to a runoff. What we don't know is whether the

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Speaker 1: Democrats end up in a runoff, and I will get

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Speaker 1: to that in a bit. My guest today is the

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Speaker 1: editor in chief of Reason mag which is the essentially

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Speaker 1: the magazine, the news organization, if you will, of the

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Speaker 1: Libertarian Party. It's or the libertarian movement is probably the

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Speaker 1: better way. I don't think they are of a direct

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Speaker 1: relationship with the party itself, but the editor in chief

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Speaker 1: it's Catherine mangou Ward, and I was inspired to book her.

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Speaker 1: I've actually had around in various iterations of the Czech

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Speaker 1: podcast in the past when it was overseen by another

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Speaker 1: another entity. With peacock feathers and stuff. But she wrote

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Speaker 1: an outbed in The New York Times a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago. Basically it was during the you know, the

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Speaker 1: tariff debates and some other things and going uh, essentially

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Speaker 1: the hey, the libertarians told you so, un Trump. But

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Speaker 1: it was it led to an interesting conversation, right, is

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Speaker 1: this a moment for libertarians rights? As skepticism of both

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Speaker 1: parties increases? Is there room for America's largest third party

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Speaker 1: at the moment, which is the Libertarian Party? They have

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Speaker 1: more battle access than any other party other than the

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Speaker 1: Democrats and the Republicans. Of course, as you will hear

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Speaker 1: in our discussion, you know, can you know, can can

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Speaker 1: you galvanize a plurality of the country around a very

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Speaker 1: limited governor government vision that doesn't just appeal to the

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Speaker 1: right but appeals to the left and the right right.

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Speaker 1: And I you know, we discussed there's liberal libertarians. Colorado

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Speaker 1: really is sort of one of those states. You know,

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Speaker 1: you have your conservative libertarians. You know, a place like

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Speaker 1: Idaho is probably the best in Wyoming or two places

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Speaker 1: where are the best descriptions of that? But you know,

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Speaker 1: I know, Catherine, I always enjoy my conversation. We end

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Speaker 1: up veering off into a fascinating discussion about healthcare and

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Speaker 1: health insurance and whether one could be a libertarian and

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Speaker 1: still be supportive of a safety net, and if so,

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Speaker 1: how large of a safety net. So it is I

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Speaker 1: think one of those for you guys, I think you're

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Speaker 1: going to enjoy this. She's she's incredibly smart and a

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Speaker 1: great talker. And I, you know, I have a you know, normally,

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Speaker 1: I right, I I sort of end my weekend with

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Speaker 1: a little bit and I get a lot more notes

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Speaker 1: saying that I've made some of you college football fans,

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Speaker 1: or at least more conversant on college football. Obviously, I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to I promised I wouldn't be, you know,

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Speaker 1: doing the off season, you know, nil scandal of the week.

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Speaker 1: So instead, let's just say I have some strong opinions

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Speaker 1: about the nominations for the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

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Speaker 1: But we will put that towards the end. But let

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Speaker 1: me start with sort of the initial fallout from sort

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Speaker 1: of after a day of the State of the Union.

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Speaker 1: You know, you know, I gave you my initial thought.

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Speaker 1: It's literally about fifteen minutes after Abigail Spanberger said good

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Speaker 1: night on that, So those were fresh perspectives without sort

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Speaker 1: of and it really was sort of in many ways

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Speaker 1: a derivative of the live stream that Crystalis and I

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Speaker 1: did in partnership with c span and YouTube, which, by

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Speaker 1: the way, we just had a blast doing that, And

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Speaker 1: once again thank you to c span and YouTube for

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Speaker 1: providing this opportunity where we could literally do a little

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Speaker 1: Manning Cast meets Mystery Science Theater three thousand and you know,

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Speaker 1: I'd like to think we sort of that we took

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Speaker 1: the assignment. We weren't overly snarky. We try to be

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Speaker 1: fun but also relevant, analytical when necessary, quizzical, you name it.

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Speaker 1: So not going to overdo it on live stream events

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Speaker 1: that aren't about primary nights or election nights. But if

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Speaker 1: there are other big nights that you'd like to see

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Speaker 1: some thing like that, and if you're curious of how

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Speaker 1: we did it, the whole stream is available with Crystaliz's

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel, and we'll have some links on all of

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Speaker 1: our socials as well. But I say that because what

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Speaker 1: I take away on the first day after a State

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Speaker 1: of the Union is what do the two parties want

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Speaker 1: to talk about in the wake of the State of

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Speaker 1: the Union, and in particular, right like, what do certainly

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Speaker 1: when you look at it from the perspective of Trump,

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Speaker 1: what does the Trump White House want to be the

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Speaker 1: second day story? And I think it's pretty clear, and

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Speaker 1: it now sort of reinforces sort of what I believe

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Speaker 1: the mission was on Tuesday night, and that was to

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Speaker 1: try to essentially get the base back back into the

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Speaker 1: high eighties low nineties in his approval rating rather than

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Speaker 1: where it started to slip depending on the poll you

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Speaker 1: look like load to mid eighties, even high seventies. There

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Speaker 1: had definitely been in some erosion, not a collapse, but

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Speaker 1: an erosion in his base. And it was sort of

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Speaker 1: an accumulation. Whether it's Iran, whether it's Epstein files, whether

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Speaker 1: it's Venezuela, you know, some of these, or frankly just

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Speaker 1: affordability itself, the tariffs, you name it. You know, there

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Speaker 1: was some sluggishness, and it was when you see the

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Speaker 1: White House and how what they wanted to showcase, right,

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Speaker 1: they think they had a visual, you know, sort of

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Speaker 1: social media moment there where Donald Trump dared the Democrats

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Speaker 1: to stand up when given the sort of Sophie choice

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Speaker 1: of you know, are you going to protect Americans first,

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Speaker 1: or anybody when it comes to violence or whatever it is,

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Speaker 1: and they clearly enjoyed that contrast. And in fact, I

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Speaker 1: do think and I can't remember if I said this

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Speaker 1: to you guys last night on the live stream or

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Speaker 1: in my on the podcast itself, the Wednesday edition, but

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Speaker 1: the speech really wasn't coherent. What it was was a

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Speaker 1: series of social media moments, right, And when you you know,

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Speaker 1: you go back, and I think I said this before.

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Speaker 1: I think there was a bit of they loaded it

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Speaker 1: up right with with the lou Rawls Parade of Stars mindset, right,

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Speaker 1: and they loaded it up with people who are more

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Speaker 1: popular than the president. Right. So it was allowed him

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Speaker 1: to soak in reflective glory, but sort of almost as

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Speaker 1: much as he loves the spotlight, you know, try to

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Speaker 1: try to share see if he could draft off of

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Speaker 1: the popularity of the Olympic team, the popularity of Metal

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Speaker 1: of Honor folks, the popularity of someone who rescues a

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Speaker 1: little girl during those horrific floods in Texas. It's, you know,

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Speaker 1: not a new strategy, but this was a very aggressive

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Speaker 1: version of it. And when you really look back at it,

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Speaker 1: and it really was more was not a speech, right.

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Speaker 1: There was not a beginning, middle, and end that was

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Speaker 1: very coherent. What it was was a series of social

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Speaker 1: media moments, right, And it was very clippable, and it

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Speaker 1: was clear that that's what they decided to make the

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Speaker 1: speech about. And they wanted some visuals and they wanted

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Speaker 1: some moments and okay, and it was about sewing up

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Speaker 1: the base because they didn't talk to the middle very well.

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Speaker 1: They didn't talk about the top issue in any credible way.

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Speaker 1: Right he went. He basically chose the Joe Biden route

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Speaker 1: of touting the economy. Hey, it's great. Have you seen

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Speaker 1: how wages are up and unemployment is down? We're I

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Speaker 1: mean my friend Casey Hunt Hunter the CNN show The Arena,

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Speaker 1: which I was a panelist on, yes on on where

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Speaker 1: are my Wednesday? Sorry, my days of the week are

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Speaker 1: bloring together on Wednesday. She did an interesting side by

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Speaker 1: side from Biden's last State of the Union in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four, where he is still an active candidate for reelection,

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Speaker 1: and it was all about trying to sell you know that, hey,

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Speaker 1: his economic plan was working, and they were trying to

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Speaker 1: convince the public, Hey, the economy was better than you

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Speaker 1: think it is, and here's Donald Trump trying to do

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Speaker 1: the same thing. And it was a really well done

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Speaker 1: side by side, and it was it only reinforced my

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Speaker 1: belief that on the economic issue, this speech did nothing,

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Speaker 1: not only didn't move the needle, might have been a

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Speaker 1: negative impact on that front. The other thing worth noting

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Speaker 1: is the one big initiative right There was a series

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Speaker 1: of that many new ideas that the President announced, but

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Speaker 1: there was a couple that seemed concrete. One is this

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Speaker 1: proposal with AI data centers to make the AI companies

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Speaker 1: find their own sources of power and pay for their

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Speaker 1: own sources of power so that you and I don't

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Speaker 1: keep subsidizing them, which we all are right now, particularly

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Speaker 1: those of us that pay electric bills. Hey, Dominion Power,

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Speaker 1: we are getting hosed right now by all these data

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Speaker 1: centers in Laden County on this front, everybody in northern

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Speaker 1: Virginia knows it. And which should scare Congress is that

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Speaker 1: there's a whole bunch of people getting screwed to the

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Speaker 1: electric bills that actually work for members of Congress. So

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Speaker 1: I promise you this is an issue that isn't going

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Speaker 1: to go away, since it actually is going to be

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Speaker 1: impacting people that work in the White House, work on

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Speaker 1: Capitol Hill, work in various parts of government. But the

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Speaker 1: other thing he announced was this idea that Jada Vance

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Speaker 1: was going to be sort of I guess a frauds

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Speaker 1: are And it was clear what it was about. It

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Speaker 1: was about Minnesota. They really want to They really even

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Speaker 1: though Minnesota, I would argue, has now flipped against the President.

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Speaker 1: Where when you say Minneapolis, the first thing I think

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Speaker 1: voters think of are the two dead Americans and by

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Speaker 1: the hands of Ice agents that they continue to believe

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Speaker 1: there is a contrast, whether it's elon Omar or Tim Walls,

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Speaker 1: and what they believe is somehow fraud that is related

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Speaker 1: to immigration. And you had this announcement with jad Vance,

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Speaker 1: who so frauds are that said that they are going

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Speaker 1: to essentially suspend some of the federal money that is

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Speaker 1: legally appropriated to the state of Minnesota when it comes

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Speaker 1: to medicaid until they produce whatever proof that Jade Vance

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Speaker 1: wants them to produce. What's interesting was what they did

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Speaker 1: is clearly illegal. A won't take you know, you've got

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Speaker 1: to quickly run to a court. You'll get the saying

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Speaker 1: the White House can't do this. They got to release

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Speaker 1: the funds, et cetera, et cetera. But I think that's

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Speaker 1: the feature. This is exactly what right the White House

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Speaker 1: wants to bait the governor of Minnesota, bait all Minnesota

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Speaker 1: Democrats into having this stand up. They clearly want this contrast.

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Speaker 1: It only helps them with the base, It does not

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Speaker 1: help them with the middle, and it only reinforces my

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Speaker 1: belief here that the State of the Union strategy was

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Speaker 1: truly just repair the base, and honestly, for a midterm election,

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Speaker 1: it's not the worst political strategy. You know, if Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump were a better politician, and when it comes to

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Speaker 1: being nimble, he's not very good. Right. What he's good

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Speaker 1: is Johnny one note doing his thing with his bass.

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Speaker 1: He does not pivot very well. He doesn't do you know.

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Speaker 1: My friend Brad Todd wrote a terrific substack of saying

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Speaker 1: what he would like to see from the president. He

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Speaker 1: didn't get what he wanted to see. He doesn't pivot

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Speaker 1: on these things. And it's clear that that he isn't

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Speaker 1: going to do. But if he's your client, right, if

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Speaker 1: you're the White House staff and you got to prepare him,

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Speaker 1: then you want to do what you have to do,

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Speaker 1: which is, you know what, he's more comfortable playing bass politics.

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Speaker 1: He's more comfortable trying to pick a fight with the

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Speaker 1: base of the Democratic Party, make at the base of

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Speaker 1: the Democrats versus the base of the Republicans. That's his

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Speaker 1: comfort zone. Right to create the straw man of the

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Speaker 1: left in order for the right to beat up on them.

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Speaker 1: And what it does is it sort of minimizes friction

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Speaker 1: inside the Publican party, right, that is a safe place

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Speaker 1: to be. And it really turns out that the state

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Speaker 1: of the Union, in some ways it was a very

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Speaker 1: risk averse state of the Union by the president. All

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Speaker 1: he did was play one note to the base without

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Speaker 1: too much attempt at actually trying to be president of

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Speaker 1: all people any of that stuff. But that has never

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Speaker 1: been his mo So if your Republican political strategist, this

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Speaker 1: is probably the best you could hope for. He didn't

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Speaker 1: make things worse picking fights with fellow Republicans. If he

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Speaker 1: had turned it into the Festus state of the Union.

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Speaker 1: I got some real problems with you people, right which

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Speaker 1: there's a small part of all of you that actually

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Speaker 1: would have enjoyed seeing grievance, you know, the Festivust version

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Speaker 1: of Donald Trump and politics and the state of the Union.

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Speaker 1: But that would have been an unmitigated disaster for his party.

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Speaker 1: If he's attacking Supreme Court justices, attacking Thomas Massey, attacking

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Speaker 1: you know, fellow Republicans, that that wouldn't have that only

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Speaker 1: they would have caused more adjecta. But he also sort

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Speaker 1: of left. But he did, you know, the downside of

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Speaker 1: what he did. While he didn't cause new problems for

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Speaker 1: the Republicans, there is no agenda to run on it,

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Speaker 1: is it. I mean, there's no new He didn't the

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Speaker 1: President didn't really issue a call for action by Congress. Okay,

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Speaker 1: past the stock trading band, Well, that's all gummed up

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Speaker 1: by leadership right now, that's ready to go. It's leadership

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Speaker 1: that is choking on that issue because I think many

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Speaker 1: of them aren't ready to give up their stock trades,

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Speaker 1: to be perfectly frank, and you know, so it is

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Speaker 1: what are they going to do if they keep Congress.

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Speaker 1: They don't really have an agenda beyond that. So that

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Speaker 1: is the downside of this strategy by the president. One

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Speaker 1: more note, John, One of my favorite daily newsletters that

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Speaker 1: I read is called news Items by John Ellis I've

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Speaker 1: known John Ellis, he worked, he was a Fox News

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Speaker 1: election analyst for decades. Really smart about this stuff. Happens

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Speaker 1: to be by the way that, yes, John Ellis, he

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Speaker 1: happens to be a part of the Bush clan. He

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Speaker 1: is first cousins with Jeb and George W. Bush. He

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Speaker 1: had an interesting essay this earlier on Wednesday, basically not

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Speaker 1: understanding what the president is up to with Iran, and

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Speaker 1: I think it was a really smart I mean, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna read his lead here in his app and it

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Speaker 1: was his post is titled Iran, Cuba and American Politics

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Speaker 1: and then with the little subtlely the fifty first State.

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Speaker 1: And I'll get to quickly, but let me read his lead,

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Speaker 1: because it does get at to the head scratchers that

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Speaker 1: a lot of people have about what we're up to

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Speaker 1: right now with Iran. It's passing strange politically speaking, that

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Speaker 1: President Trump has chosen to bring the United States to

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Speaker 1: the brink of war or something like that in the

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Speaker 1: Middle East. The President knows his political base, he knows

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Speaker 1: what they will abide and what they will not, and

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Speaker 1: he knows that they will not abide a war in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East. What they might or and perhaps will

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Speaker 1: abide is some kind of decisive strike against Iran, perhaps

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Speaker 1: one that disables some of their ballistic missiles or destroys

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Speaker 1: parts of their nuclear program, or forces them to negotiate

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Speaker 1: some sort of deal that constrains their ability to recavoc

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Speaker 1: in the region and beyond. But that's it, and any

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Speaker 1: suggestion of missing creep is a non starter. Any over

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Speaker 1: long stay is a betrayal of solemn promise of nor

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Speaker 1: more foreign adventures. And then he goes on to say

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Speaker 1: Iran knows this too, So strategically speaking, all Iran needs

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Speaker 1: to do is everything in its power to rope adope.

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Speaker 1: The United States hit us again harder and harder until

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Speaker 1: you've exhausted your available resources and your patients of your

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Speaker 1: political base, and then you'll have to retreat and we

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Speaker 1: will have defeated the Great Satan again. This is essentially

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Speaker 1: what John Ellis is putting in the words of the

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Speaker 1: Iranians there, essentially saying that's the general idea, and I

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Speaker 1: this is the problem. The president has put himself, and

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Speaker 1: he's put himself in this box and around what are

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Speaker 1: you doing and what does success look like? And if

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Speaker 1: you hit the regime and the regime is still there

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Speaker 1: at standing. How long are you going to hit them?

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Speaker 1: How much are you going to destroy? When you break it,

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Speaker 1: you own it? So are we going to rebuild iron

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Speaker 1: at some point? If you do successfully do that? How

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Speaker 1: did that go in a rock when we did all that?

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Speaker 1: So what is it? And then you know, as John

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Speaker 1: points out, it's pretty clear that the President's chief military advisor,

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Speaker 1: the Joint Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Raisin Kane,

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Speaker 1: is basically shooting up all sorts of flares like, we

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Speaker 1: don't have the next day strategy here, we don't have

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Speaker 1: exactly what the what the goal of this operation is, right,

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Speaker 1: And he went to the Wall Street Journal. It's confirmed

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Speaker 1: in the Times, in the in the in the Post. Look,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people in Washington have figured out to

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Speaker 1: strategically speak to Donald Trump. You sometimes need to use

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Speaker 1: the press. So here's Caine going to the Wall Street Journal,

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Speaker 1: where he knows the President will consume. But the Post

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Speaker 1: in the Times are also two news organizations the President

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Speaker 1: regularly consumes. And this is also about getting to people

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Speaker 1: whispering in his ear. There's no doubt Lindsey Graham wants

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Speaker 1: him to go yesterday but this was when when General

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Speaker 1: Kine is making it clear this you know, you're not

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Speaker 1: going to air strike your way to regime change. So

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Speaker 1: what's your goal here? And are you really going to

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Speaker 1: negotiate a deal with these guys? Is that going to go?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 1: He kind of sort of laid out a pretext for

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Speaker 1: why he would strike Iran. But if you're not going

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Speaker 1: to put boots on the ground, you're likely not going

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Speaker 1: to change that regime. And they may simply hunker down.

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Speaker 1: And as as as John Alis points out, if they

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Speaker 1: sort of withstand this, the United States says Okay, this

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Speaker 1: is as much as we can do and backs off.

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Speaker 1: Have they withstood the onslaught of the great American Satan? Right?

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Speaker 1: You can see where this is going. Now what John

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Speaker 1: does is pivots and he said, why he thinks all

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Speaker 1: of this is so off? It's so clear that there

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Speaker 1: is no good, There is no Look, there are plenty

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Speaker 1: of good potential outcomes in Iran, but to get to those,

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Speaker 1: you know, to quote Jim Stravertis in the interview he

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Speaker 1: did with me on Newsphere last Sunday, I encourage you

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Speaker 1: to go see that some of you, I hope are

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Speaker 1: have subscribed to newsphere where he said, look, there's probably

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Speaker 1: a one in four chance this does cause regime change,

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Speaker 1: and we're in't a better place in a year than

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Speaker 1: we are today with Iran. And there's every and there's

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Speaker 1: also a one and four chance, he said, that this

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Speaker 1: could go horribly wrong and it galvanizes the Iranian public

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Speaker 1: behind the regime and they get stronger. And then he said,

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Speaker 1: and there's the middle to scenarios, some sort of muddled

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Speaker 1: scenario that essentially is some combination of a mini quagmire.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's a policy quagmire, but it's just a mess,

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Speaker 1: and it's kind of unresolved. Think of it as sort

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Speaker 1: of Donald Trump's attempt to remodel in whatever he's doing

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Speaker 1: with the Kennedy Center, it's kind of half baked and

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Speaker 1: half asked, and that's kind of what it looks like

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Speaker 1: with Iran. So his argument is, what are you doing.

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Speaker 1: You're being a little impatient, right, You could actually simply

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Speaker 1: back off and let Iran shrink on its own, let

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Speaker 1: them deal with more protesters, don't get in the way.

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Speaker 1: But now that he's put all these melody, now it's

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Speaker 1: sort of it looks like this impatience by Trump to

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Speaker 1: just get some action. Right. This is the story of

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Speaker 1: his presidency. His impatience is among his worst instincts, and

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Speaker 1: his impatience leads him to bad outcomes. His impatience on

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Speaker 1: he really believed in this teriff regime he would have

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Speaker 1: gotten the authority from Congress when he had the political

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Speaker 1: capital to get Congress and to give him this authority

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Speaker 1: back in March and April. But he doesn't think that way.

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Speaker 1: He just wants it now. You know. This is this

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Speaker 1: is the immaturity part of the seventy nine year old

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Speaker 1: president of the United States. Right, there's this weird thirteen

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Speaker 1: year old mindset that he has where it's just he

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Speaker 1: wants it now.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: Now, what John Ellis argues is, as he said, America

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Speaker 1: is now choosing to be impatient with iron. It doesn't

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Speaker 1: make sense militarily, he argues. I agree with him, And

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Speaker 1: it makes no sense politically at all. That's for sure, right,

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Speaker 1: this is this isn't a good military strategy, and it's

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Speaker 1: certainly not a good political strategy. And then he says

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Speaker 1: this and he goes especially because ninety minutes east of

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Speaker 1: Key West, Florida, lies what he calls the mother of

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Speaker 1: all political opportunities, and that's Cuba. He makes the case

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Speaker 1: that Cuba's on the brink of societal collapse. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of reporting that indicates this. It does not appear

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Speaker 1: that this regime is going to hang on the rest

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Speaker 1: of this calendar year, and it may collapse without having

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Speaker 1: to put an armada surrounding the island of Cuba to

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Speaker 1: make sure the regime goes away. It's going to collapse

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Speaker 1: on its own, and the United States is going to

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Speaker 1: almost have no choice, and it's certainly going to have

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Speaker 1: the ambition, especially with Marco Rubio Secretary State, and so

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Speaker 1: many Republicans and Cuban exiles in South Florida who've been

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Speaker 1: dreaming of the moment that this is going to happen,

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Speaker 1: and the Cuban American community would flood the island with

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Speaker 1: money and resources. It could the infamous line that Dick

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Speaker 1: Cheney said about Iraq, oh, well, we greeted as liberators,

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Speaker 1: Cuba might actually greet us as liberators. And certainly the

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Speaker 1: reunification of Cuban families, the economic opportunities it is, as

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Speaker 1: he says, he goes it's not going to win him

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Speaker 1: a Nobel Peace Prize but it actually offers him an opportunity,

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Speaker 1: as he said, to create a fifty first state. We'll see.

431
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 1: Maybe this is how Puerto Rico or DC happens, maybe

432
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 1: Cuban and DC coming together. By the way, it's not

433
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 1: the craziest idea. There was some talk of making Cuba

434
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 1: state back in the early twentieth century. Maybe it stays

435
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 1: as a standalone country. Maybe it becomes sort of what

436
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: Puerto Rico is, commonwealth with the association with the United States.

437
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 1: Maybe it stays an independent country with free and fair

438
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: elections and things like that. But I think what the

439
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: point Ellis is making is there's a fairly easy foreign

440
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 1: policy victory that might be available to you in this

441
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: hemisphere without too much blood and treasure. There is a

442
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: foreign policy outcome that Trump is trying to will in

443
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 1: the Middle East that has more opportunities for it to

444
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 1: go haywire. And yet the president's in patience has put

445
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: him where he is now. Now if he doesn't do

446
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 1: anything in Iran, it's Taco Trump. So anyway, I just

447
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 1: thought I wanted to highlight the piece because I thought

448
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 1: Ellis nailed it. It was sort of like, this is

449
00:26:52,800 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 1: a head scratcher politically, strategically, militarily, and they're only I think,

450
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 1: you know, there's only a I'm going to use the

451
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 1: Stavriti's measurement about a one and four chance that Giess

452
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 1: goes as well as it could be. And even if

453
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: it does, it could drain us of resources that the

454
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 1: public may not like. And it's certainly going to be

455
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: the type of distraction that makes it look like the

456
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 1: President is more focused on his legacy, building his own

457
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: you know, stuff overseas, rather than the cost of living

458
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: here at home, where Cuba is a quasi it's like

459
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 1: one of the few foreign policy issues that's quasi domestic.

460
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,560
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Speaker 1: All right, so this weekend is the final weekend before

520
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: the primary season kicks off all things Texas. It's not

521
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: just Texas on the battle on Tuesday, North Carolina as well.

522
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 1: But we don't have a big, huge There's a few

523
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: congressional primaries that we're going to be keeping an eye

524
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: on in North Carolina. But look, the big stories are

525
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 1: the two primaries, the Republican primary between John corn Can

526
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 1: Paxton Wesley Hunt, and it's pretty clear that's going to

527
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 1: be a runoff, and it's looking clear all the time

528
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 1: that it's going to be Paxxton and Cornyn in the runoff.

529
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: So I actually want to focus the remainder of my

530
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: time before we get to the interview on what's happening

531
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: inside the Democratic side, because what happens in the Democratic

532
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 1: primary could very well influence what happens in the Republican runoff.

533
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: So again, you see, it was what I sort of

534
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 1: predicted a couple of weeks ago that eventually you'd see

535
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 1: Wesley Hunt fade. You're starting to see west Hunt fade.

536
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: Both Cornan and Paxton have much better to get out

537
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 1: the vote organizations on the early vote, and you're starting

538
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: to see that. So I think what will matter a

539
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 1: bit is I think it's a fairly I wouldn't call

540
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 1: it a big deal, but it's not a small deal, right,

541
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: we'll call it a medium deal. If Cornan is the

542
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 1: leading vote getter on the Republican side. If Cornyn is

543
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 1: able to be the leading vote getter, that is because

544
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 1: he's never been ahead in any poll that wasn't released

545
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: by his own campaign. He has pretty much trailed out

546
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: in every public poll and every other private poll not

547
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: by a lot. I mean, you see, and it gets

548
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: really tied at some points, been one or two points.

549
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: But Paxton has had a consistent lead, and there's certainly

550
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 1: plenty of reasons to believe you'd rather be Paxton in

551
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: the runoff than Cornyan in the runoff. Paxston's going to

552
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: have the more devoted voters, and runoffs tend to favor

553
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 1: the candidate closer to the political base of that party

554
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 1: rather than you don't get as many sort of casual

555
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 1: voters showing up for that second round. Sometimes it happens,

556
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: every once in a while, the runoff will get a

557
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: higher turnout than the primary itself. We saw that happen

558
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 1: in a Mississippi Senate race back in twenty fourteen that

559
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: featured one of these these these primary challenges to a

560
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 1: sitting senator. But what could so I think, look the

561
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: order of finish matters. You know, cornn getting the top spot,

562
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 1: maybe that encourages Trump to get on board. Corn can't

563
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 1: win this without Trump unilaterally endorsing him and essentially unindorsing Paccton.

564
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 1: And there seems to be really only a couple of

565
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 1: ways this can happen. One is Corn needs to be

566
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: the leading vote getter. I will be surprised if he is.

567
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 1: But you know, when you drop the amount of money

568
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 1: he's dropped, you assume he's got a very good on

569
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 1: the ground organization, and the Cornn voter is going to

570
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 1: show up. Right, the corn And voters in the in

571
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 1: the the nice neighborhoods where George W. Bush lives in

572
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 1: and around where my son goes to school at SMU. Right,

573
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 1: that's Cornn Country. Now you go further into North Texas

574
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: and you get to Paxton Country. The further the closer

575
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: you get to Fort Worth. But you know, in the

576
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 1: in the the wealthier suburbs of Houston and Dallas, assuming

577
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 1: they've stayed voting in Republican primaries, it's a big if

578
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 1: there are quite a few sort of former Bush Republicans

579
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 1: that now vote in Democratic primaries because of Donald Trump,

580
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: that's going to be key. I think that is a

581
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 1: It is a Like I said, it doesn't mean that

582
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 1: Cornyn is guaranteed to survive the runoff if he's a

583
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: leading vote getter, but that is something to watch for

584
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: in it will matter, But we're still you know, it's

585
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 1: it's a there's going to be a runoff, and you know,

586
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 1: we've got it's a long runoff. It goes all the

587
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 1: way basically Memorial there, which brings us to this democratic

588
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 1: back and forth between James Tolerrico, who is a darling

589
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 1: of this sort of establishment and donor crowd, and Jasmine Crockett,

590
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 1: who has very you know, run her own race kind

591
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 1: of a anti establishment and yet she is getting the

592
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 1: support of the more mainstream Democratic primary voters. This has

593
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: been a fascinating divide to watch. I think there are

594
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 1: a lot of people who haven't paid attention much to

595
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 1: Crockett and Talla Rico and assume that Crockett is the

596
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 1: more base based Democrat and that Talla Rico is the

597
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 1: more moderate electable Democrat. And yet many of the progressive

598
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 1: groups that have endorsed, and two of the biggest progressives

599
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 1: have actually not endorsed in this race, AOC and Bernie Sanders,

600
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 1: who have gotten involved in a lot of primaries, not

601
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 1: involved in this one. They have stayed out. But you

602
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:02,359
Speaker 1: have p triple c Adam Green is a big part

603
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: of this. For those of you that are are in

604
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: progressive politics, progressive you know, they definitely usually endorse on

605
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 1: the progressive side, they endorsed tall Rico, and when you

606
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:16,280
Speaker 1: actually look at the vote, at the raw splits inside

607
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,399
Speaker 1: the Democratic primary, there was a University of Texas poll

608
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: out there, and there's there's a more recent one. Tall

609
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: Rico campaign put out a poll claiming they were now

610
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 1: up four points. There's another poll that's been circulating earlier

611
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 1: on Wednesday that showed Jasmine Crockett up double digits. Now

612
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: that pole had been conducted, a big chunk of it

613
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:42,839
Speaker 1: conducted before the Colbert FCC incident. I guess we'll call

614
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: it acush. They had nothing to do the FC the

615
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: accusation of all of that, which of course gave tall

616
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:52,760
Speaker 1: Rico a lot of a lot of attention. So there's

617
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 1: you know, so is his Crockett up double digits or

618
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 1: is tallerco up two or three? You know, Tallerrico releases

619
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 1: own pole because I think they didn't like this narrative

620
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 1: that was developing that oh wow, Crocket's about to could

621
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: she win this without a runoff? There is a third

622
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:11,840
Speaker 1: cannon on the ballot, very underfunded. But you know, this

623
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:14,479
Speaker 1: race is forty nine forty eight. You know, the third

624
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: candidate only needs to get you know what the third

625
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 1: candidate gets anything over three or four points, well, I

626
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 1: think the likelihood of a DEM runoff suddenly inches up.

627
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: There was a ut Austin yu Goov poll that was

628
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 1: circulating and it was conducted the second through the sixteenth,

629
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:39,479
Speaker 1: so it started before the Colbert incident, as I was saying,

630
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:43,280
Speaker 1: And what was interesting about what we saw the Democratic

631
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 1: prime was a very small sample, so I'm mindful of that,

632
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: just three hundred and seventy Democratic likely voters, and they

633
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: had crocket ahead by double digits. What was interesting is

634
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 1: when you went inside the numbers, it looked to me

635
00:37:56,440 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 1: like an old Sanders Clinton divide in the Democratic primary

636
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 1: battles in twenty sixteen. And what do I mean by that?

637
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 1: So in a lot of these, particularly the southern primaries,

638
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: the splits would be very, very consistent across the board.

639
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton would do better among actual registered Democrats, better

640
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,479
Speaker 1: among African American voters, and in some ways better among

641
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: Latino voters, while Bernie did better among it was competitive

642
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: among Latino voters, did better among white voters, which white

643
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: Democratic voters are usually more progressive, and Democratic Party did

644
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: not do well among African American voters. He did well

645
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 1: among younger voters and Hillary Clinton did well among older voters. Well,

646
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: Crockett had a big edge among older vote. Basically, she

647
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: was winning all voters fifty plus. Talerico was only winning

648
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 1: voters eighteen to thirty five. Now, why does that matter

649
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 1: a primary, Well, the more reliable primary voters are older,

650
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 1: an African American, and female. Well, Crockett was ahead in

651
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 1: all of those demographic groups there. Now look Tall Rico's

652
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 1: poll that he put out later in the day after

653
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 1: this double digit lead of Crocketts was sorted, and it

654
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:12,839
Speaker 1: wasn't the only poll that has shown Crockett ahead. She's

655
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: been ahead pretty much the entire primary campaign. Would you

656
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 1: look at the makeup of her supporters in these polls,

657
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: her coalition looks more durable for showing up to the polls. Now, look,

658
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 1: I think we're going to have a huge turnout among Democrats.

659
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 1: We've seen it in special elections. So the bigger the turnout,

660
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 1: the better perhaps for Tall Rico. And in fact, if

661
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 1: you look at the Tall Rico poll that was put out,

662
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 1: one thing that they wanted to emphasize that the ut

663
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 1: Pole didn't do was this idea of the electability question,

664
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 1: who can win and primary Democratic primary voters. According to

665
00:39:57,160 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 1: tall Rico's pollster, said tall Rico's more likely to at

666
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:03,839
Speaker 1: the GP nominee. Forty seven percent picked tall Rico, only

667
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 1: twenty two percent pick Crockett. Back in December, when they

668
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 1: tested the electability question, tall Rico's edge was only four points. Look,

669
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 1: I think electability is a very hard thing to pull

670
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 1: because it's a very subjective thing, right, what I think

671
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 1: is electable. Sure, you could say, hey, I've been doing

672
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 1: this thirty years. I think I have an idea of

673
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 1: which kind of candidates have the highest ceiling, and I

674
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 1: think that's the better way to do it. Look, considering

675
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 1: the history of Texas, the history of eddy state, we've

676
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 1: only had a handful that of elected African American women

677
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 1: statewide to the United States Senate. So it is hard

678
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 1: not to sit there and say, the white male pastor

679
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 1: probably has a higher potential ceiling than a general election

680
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 1: than an African American congresswoman from Dallas. Except I would

681
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 1: say being from Dallas is actually might be a good

682
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 1: advantage versus Tallarico's base of Austin, which is a bit

683
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 1: more progressive. So, but I understand this idea of who's

684
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:15,879
Speaker 1: got a higher ceiling. The fact is polls have shown

685
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 1: they both are ahead of Paxton right now, and part

686
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:20,280
Speaker 1: of that is thanks to John Cornyan and the Senate

687
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,879
Speaker 1: Republican packs that have been very supportive of Cornyn. They

688
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 1: have dropped a mother load of negative ads on Paxton.

689
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:32,399
Speaker 1: It has barely budget his primary numbers, but it has

690
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: heard him with general election voters, which is why what

691
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:42,240
Speaker 1: happens in this Democratic primary may dictate what could happen

692
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 1: in the Republican runoff. But the big thing I wanted

693
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 1: to make clear as you're watching these Texas primaries unfold

694
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 1: on Tuesday night, and by the way, I'm going to

695
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 1: have a live stream all of you. We'll put it

696
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 1: on X We're going to put on YouTube. I'll be

697
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 1: in partnership with my friends at Decision Desk, and of

698
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 1: course Chris Jeffrey Skelling, he's going to be on there again.

699
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 1: We're going to have our parade of data stars helping

700
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: us break down not just the Senate primaries, which of

701
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 1: course we'll all be in pins and needs for, but

702
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 1: there's a slew of fascinating House primaries, including whether Tony Gonzalez,

703
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 1: who is having to deal with the Republican congressman from

704
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: South Texas having a deal with a whole bunch of

705
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 1: resignation calls due to the affair with the woman who

706
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 1: killed herself by lighting herself on fire. You've had bipartisan

707
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 1: calls for his resignation. I have a feeling the voters

708
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 1: are going to take care of his political career. But

709
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: whether or not, you know, he has to resign or not,

710
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: I think the voters are going to make that decision

711
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 1: for him. Dan Crenshaw the only Republican incumbent congressman in

712
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 1: Texas running for reelection who did not get endorsed by

713
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. In fact, his opponent was just recently endorsed

714
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:54,280
Speaker 1: by Ted Cruz. That will be an interesting primary. Obviously,

715
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 1: we've got all the redistricting stuff that happened when Texas

716
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: started the remap, So there's a lot going on and

717
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 1: we're going to have it all covered the Election nine

718
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 1: live stream. We will be there, and we're also going

719
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 1: to cover North Carolina and yes, Arkansas. Probably the only

720
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 1: November competitive election in Arkansas, if there is going to

721
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 1: be anything competitive at all, would be the Little Rock

722
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 1: congressional seat that's french Hill these days, He's a pretty

723
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 1: well liked figure, so I'm highly suspect. But in a waveyear,

724
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 1: if any member of Congress in Arkansas is going to

725
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,760
Speaker 1: get held under sixty or even close to the fifty

726
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 1: five percent mark, you would id the congressman from Little Rock,

727
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 1: which is French Hill these days. So but to go back,

728
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 1: you know, this Tall Rico Crockett race I think is

729
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 1: clearly going to be pretty close if it ends in

730
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: a runoff. Trump may not get is involved. If Tall

731
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 1: Rico wins without a runoff, I've talked to some Republican

732
00:43:56,239 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 1: sources who indicate that that might get Trump on off

733
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 1: the fence on Paxton and endorse Cornn, especially if Cornin's

734
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 1: a leading vote getter, and I go back to that,

735
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: Cornan has to be the leading vote getter, I think

736
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 1: to even have a chance because he can play the

737
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 1: quote unquote winner card right. Trump doesn't like the back losers,

738
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 1: so in that sense he might be able to claim

739
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: he backs a winner. If Crockett wins without a primary,

740
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 1: I think a lot of Texas Republicans and perhaps even

741
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:32,319
Speaker 1: some Senate Republican strategists are going to convince themselves it

742
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:36,359
Speaker 1: won't matter who they nominate. I'm not sure I agree

743
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 1: with that, but I understand when you look at the

744
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 1: history of this country with African American women Senate nominees,

745
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 1: it's Texas. You can go through all the reasons why

746
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 1: he seems uniquely unelectable. Ken Paxton does. And I think

747
00:44:56,360 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 1: what people miss about Jasmine Crockett is he's not the progressive.

748
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:05,719
Speaker 1: She is much more of a working class Democrat, much

749
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:09,320
Speaker 1: more of a Jim Cleiburn Democrat. If you're going to

750
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: go in sort of congressional black caucus politics, there very

751
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 1: much in not necessarily on the far left of the

752
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 1: spectrum here, So you know, it's certainly she's going to

753
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 1: get painted as an extremist. She's certainly been very loud

754
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 1: on social media, you might say, and there's no doubt

755
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:36,399
Speaker 1: how the Republicans are going. But I let's just say,

756
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be writing I wouldn't write this race off.

757
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 1: I still think it doesn't matter who the Democratic nominee is.

758
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,880
Speaker 1: It's going to be hard to win in Texas, but

759
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 1: it's going to be quite competitive no matter which one

760
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:50,720
Speaker 1: of these two cadis. I think we've seen the better

761
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 1: campaigner is Jasmine Crockett Talla Rico may have the better

762
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:00,319
Speaker 1: resume as far as donors are concerned, but I don't

763
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 1: think he's Pete Buddhagen yet. And I think there's been

764
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 1: a lot of people betting that maybe he's the next peat.

765
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 1: I think when you see that, you know, I think

766
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 1: he really if he loses this race and doesn't make

767
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 1: it into a runoff, even we will say the way

768
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 1: the fact that he was that he that comment about

769
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 1: Colin alright, wasn't mediocre candidate, it was mediocre black candidate.

770
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 1: I think that it had a It's very possible this

771
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: impacts voters much more deeply than you think, like going

772
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 1: huh the pastor thinks in identity politics too, And I

773
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 1: just think that that, you know, if he loses, that

774
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:50,239
Speaker 1: will be the moment that is pointed to is sort

775
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 1: of you know, this is why you don't pick nominees

776
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 1: based on resumes. You actually wait and see how they

777
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 1: perform as candidates. And speaking of that, have you seen

778
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 1: what's going on in main lately? There's another pole out

779
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 1: again you univer see of New Hampshire that has Graham Platner,

780
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 1: the oyster farmer, up nearly forty points over Janet Mills,

781
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 1: the sitting incumbent governor. It's interesting, so Chuck Schumer was

782
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 1: asked about this, about this pole that should platter continue

783
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 1: to be ahead double digits over Janet Mills even after

784
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 1: the so called Nazi tattoo and all of that controversy.

785
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 1: None of it seemed to hurt him, and none of

786
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 1: it seemed to accrue to the benefit of Mills. And

787
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 1: if anything, the fact that she just is not getting

788
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:51,359
Speaker 1: traction yet has to make you wonder if this is

789
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 1: if this is something the is this the age issue? Right?

790
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 1: They were thinking, Look, the best way to knock off

791
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 1: an incumbent that's been there forever is not somebody who

792
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 1: looks like she's older than Susan Collins. But what's interesting

793
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:11,400
Speaker 1: is Schumer was asked about this race and whether he

794
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 1: wants to admit if he backed the wrong candidate. And

795
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 1: by the way, you know, Schumer's track record here is

796
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 1: terrible so far the cycle. I'm going to get to

797
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:19,840
Speaker 1: it in a minute. And he says, polls come and go,

798
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 1: We're going to win in Maine, and frankly, Mills is

799
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 1: the only Democrat who won statewide in twenty years. Well,

800
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: an extraordinarily defensive statement. It is technically true, but full

801
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 1: of shit what Schumer just said there. He said Mills

802
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: is the only Democrat who's won statewide in twenty years. Okay,

803
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:38,359
Speaker 1: Angus King has won a bunch, but Angus King has

804
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:41,400
Speaker 1: been an independent coxing with the Democrats. So it's interesting

805
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 1: win Schumer claims Angus King, and when he doesn't claim

806
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 1: Angus King. And by the way, when Angus King ring

807
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 1: for the Senate, you know who endorsed his candidacy and

808
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 1: funded his candidacy, the d SC. So it's kind of

809
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:55,439
Speaker 1: a misleading statement there, but it was a you could

810
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:58,000
Speaker 1: tell it's a bit stubborn. But what's interesting, right Taala

811
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 1: Rico was a Schumer recruit. He looks like right now,

812
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:05,320
Speaker 1: polls show them losing to Crockett in Iowa. Josh Truick

813
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:09,439
Speaker 1: was the Schumer recruit. Zach Walls put out his own poll.

814
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: Republics have put out a poll. Multiple poles have shown

815
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 1: him up double digits. Janet Mills was his recruit. Graham

816
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 1: Platner's winning in the primary. Look, I know it sounds

817
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 1: like I'm picking on Chuck Schumer because he is in

818
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 1: charge of this. Roy Cooper is a great get and

819
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 1: there's no primary. He's got to worry about North Carolina

820
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 1: and Mary Potzalo is a great get in Alaska. So

821
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 1: you know, if i'm if you're if we're going to

822
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:34,759
Speaker 1: ding Schumer here for making for getting too involved in

823
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,960
Speaker 1: these primaries in Texas, Maine, in Iowa, that gets one

824
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 1: of those cases he had to let the candidates perform

825
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:43,280
Speaker 1: and then decide who's the best candidate, you know, instead

826
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:45,959
Speaker 1: of just looking at resumes once you'll let this play out,

827
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:49,760
Speaker 1: then decide right, let the candidates and the voters play

828
00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 1: the game, if you will, before you come in and

829
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 1: decide who should what the results should be. You know,

830
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 1: this is with you know with Iowa. This is not

831
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 1: the first time he is back the wrong candidate in

832
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:04,720
Speaker 1: Iowa multiple times now, which is why Democrats have fallen

833
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:10,799
Speaker 1: further behind in that state. Look, part of this is

834
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:16,839
Speaker 1: in defense of Schumer. Here they're the establishment and we're

835
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 1: in a campaign here where the establishment is not popular

836
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 1: hard stop. So there is an argument to be made

837
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:25,359
Speaker 1: if there are certain candidates he wants to see when

838
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 1: the best thing he can do is not endorsed them, right,

839
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 1: I mean, his candidate in Michigan might be the weakest

840
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:35,760
Speaker 1: of the three primary candidates at the moment, Haley Stevens.

841
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 1: So the good news for Schumer and the Democrats is

842
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 1: they seem to have some pretty good campaigners that may

843
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:49,400
Speaker 1: knock off his recruits Platner in Maine, Walls in Iowa,

844
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 1: Crockett in Texas. And it's also possibly true that the

845
00:50:57,360 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 1: more public the party is on who its preferences are,

846
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 1: that it sends the exact opposite message to where Democratic

847
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 1: primary voters are right now. All right, So with that,

848
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:10,319
Speaker 1: I know that's my long wind up there. I had

849
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 1: a lot to say. Hey, it's a long weekend. You've

850
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 1: got a few extra days to listen to this. Let's

851
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 1: stink in a break and a fun conversation with the

852
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 1: editor in chief of the magazine of the libertarian movements,

853
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 1: Reason and Catherine mangoo War. Do you hate hangovers? We'll

854
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Speaker 1: think about it, especially if you've got a growing family. Well,

908
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 1: joining me now is somebody I've actually multiple iterations of

909
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:35,640
Speaker 1: my podcast over the years, but I think it's the

910
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:38,600
Speaker 1: first time since I left NBC that I've had her on.

911
00:54:38,719 --> 00:54:40,960
Speaker 1: It's Katherine Mango Ward. She's the editor in chief of

912
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:47,360
Speaker 1: the Reason magazine, essentially the magazine of the libertarian movement.

913
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 1: I would say, and I'll let her describe how closely

914
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:54,640
Speaker 1: aligned they are with the party itself. But what triggered

915
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 1: the invite, and frankly it was more of like, why

916
00:54:57,680 --> 00:54:59,920
Speaker 1: haven't I had Catherine on sooner? Was this op ed?

917
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:01,759
Speaker 1: She wrote a couple of weeks ago the New York

918
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:05,319
Speaker 1: Times that was so helpfully headlined libertarians tried to warn

919
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:09,319
Speaker 1: you about Trump, but maybe we got lost in an

920
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 1: lit Aleppo rabbit hole. But I'm sorry for that, Sorry

921
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 1: for that, that little poke in joke there. Going back

922
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:19,280
Speaker 1: to Gary Johnson, but Catherine joins me now, and Catherine,

923
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 1: it's good to see you. Sorry it's taken so long.

924
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 2: Of course, thanks for having me on.

925
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 1: So you know, I I use this all the time

926
00:55:26,120 --> 00:55:27,920
Speaker 1: whenever I'm asked to do talks. I said, you know,

927
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 1: we all find out how libertarian we are when we

928
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:33,360
Speaker 1: don't like the party that's in charge of our politics

929
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 1: in any given moment, which is why when you see

930
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:40,959
Speaker 1: people from a majority party still behaving as libertarians before

931
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 1: they're before they're partisans, it gives you a little bit

932
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 1: of hope. But there's not many of those folks that

933
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:50,759
Speaker 1: behave this way. But you know, I think fundamentally that's

934
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:54,280
Speaker 1: what this Supreme Court ruling last week in some ways

935
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 1: was as a reminder that that that there is structure

936
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,760
Speaker 1: that should you know, the whole goal of the founders

937
00:56:02,880 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 1: was not to let any body become a king and

938
00:56:06,120 --> 00:56:12,319
Speaker 1: let unilateral control of government arguably a libertarian point of view.

939
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:17,440
Speaker 1: So tell me your motivation for writing the outbed was

940
00:56:17,480 --> 00:56:18,120
Speaker 1: it I told you so?

941
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 2: You know, I actually have said in public. In fact,

942
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 2: that I told you so doesn't usually win arguments. But

943
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 2: what I discovered is that there is an exception here,

944
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 2: which is when I told you so is also kind

945
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:36,280
Speaker 2: of validating in the readers, in this case, the readers

946
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:38,680
Speaker 2: of the New York Times, something they had been telling

947
00:56:38,760 --> 00:56:42,320
Speaker 2: themselves too. So part of what this piece is about is,

948
00:56:42,920 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 2: you know, libertarians have been making this sort of thorough going,

949
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:50,839
Speaker 2: consistent case against the rise of executive power and kind

950
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:54,960
Speaker 2: of the imbalance that that's creating. But a lot of

951
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 2: folks who identify as kind of mainstream democrats or the

952
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 2: kind of imagined reader of the Times are skeptical about

953
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:05,920
Speaker 2: those things when it comes to a bunch of the

954
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 2: places where Trump has suddenly started pushing hard. So we're

955
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 2: talking here about trade, we're talking here about immigration, that

956
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 2: kind of thing. There was already a lot of commonality there,

957
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:18,400
Speaker 2: so in some ways it was more of a remember

958
00:57:18,480 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 2: how you're a little bit libertarian to my friends and readers.

959
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:25,240
Speaker 1: No, it's it's I like to remind people that this,

960
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 1: and I think it's probably explains why it's been so

961
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 1: difficult for the libertarian movement to fully unify, because there

962
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 1: is a libertarian wing of the Democratic Party. It's you know,

963
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 1: I feel like Jared Poulos in Colorado is sort of

964
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,600
Speaker 1: the poster child that most repress. He would say, he goes,

965
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 1: we're for freedoms, freedom, so here, freedom on your body,

966
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:48,040
Speaker 1: freedom of autonomy, things like that. And then of course

967
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:50,840
Speaker 1: we've we've known there's a libertarian wing of the Republican

968
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:53,120
Speaker 1: Party for some time, but it went dormant for a

969
00:57:53,200 --> 00:57:57,800
Speaker 1: little while, but it was what's interesting, it's mostly been

970
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 1: a phenomenon geographically out west, right. When you look at

971
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 1: the old Republican coalition pre Trump, it was the Western

972
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 1: Republicans who were the Conservatives who would surprise quote unquote

973
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:14,600
Speaker 1: surprise people by votes sometimes because there was a libertarian

974
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: streak in them. Alan Simpson is probably the best example

975
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 1: of this in the previous era, and maybe Lisa Markowski

976
00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 1: is the best example of this today.

977
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:24,720
Speaker 4: Well.

978
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:27,960
Speaker 2: And you do see this in some unexpected places as well,

979
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:31,160
Speaker 2: like in Utah, where of course the politics are often

980
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:33,800
Speaker 2: quite dominated by Mormons, but where they do actually quite

981
00:58:33,800 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 2: a good job of protecting minority rights, probably because of

982
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:40,720
Speaker 2: the backstory of Mormons, among other things. Right, so they're

983
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 2: riff for a Laws that protect religious freedoms, for example,

984
00:58:44,560 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 2: are surprisingly libertarian. You see a lot of school choice

985
00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 2: out west for similar reasons, sometimes with bipartisan or kind

986
00:58:51,840 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 2: of mixed support. In terms of who's sending libertarians to

987
00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 2: the hill right now though, Kentucky, you know, we.

988
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:02,280
Speaker 1: Have both of all places, primus.

989
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:05,880
Speaker 2: Massey, who are neither I would say, are you know,

990
00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:08,600
Speaker 2: as libertarian as I would like them to be every day,

991
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:12,280
Speaker 2: all the time, but pretty clearly deserve the title of

992
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 2: most libertarian on the hill.

993
00:59:15,000 --> 00:59:19,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they're culturally. You know, it's always culture

994
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:23,760
Speaker 1: where that I think gets somebody on either side of

995
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:29,040
Speaker 1: the spectrum tripped up on libertarianism, right, whether it's on

996
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:33,560
Speaker 1: racial or social justice on the left or on call

997
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 1: it wokeness on the right.

998
00:59:35,040 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I think that's true. I also think, you know,

999
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 2: there's a version of this piece. We can get into

1000
00:59:41,200 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 2: the details a little bit more. But as I say that,

1001
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 2: the piece for the Times the last you know, a

1002
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago, I focused on immigration and trade

1003
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:53,360
Speaker 2: and speech where you know, Trump is kind of being

1004
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:57,120
Speaker 2: the least libertarian, although quite unlibertarian in so many ways.

1005
00:59:57,800 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 2: There's a version of this piece I could have written

1006
00:59:59,560 --> 01:00:03,200
Speaker 2: under the administration on the other side of the equation, where.

1007
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:05,000
Speaker 1: We well, was that tell me, tell it, express it

1008
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:07,200
Speaker 1: so that we're not just saying absolutely yeah.

1009
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the version of this piece here is,

1010
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 2: you know, libertarians have been warning you about the dangers

1011
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:17,479
Speaker 2: of debt and deficit. We've been warned, and that actually, frankly,

1012
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:20,360
Speaker 2: you can make that argument just as well under any administration.

1013
01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 2: But you know, libertarians have been warning you about the

1014
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:29,480
Speaker 2: dangers of an entitlement programs that are totally out of control,

1015
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 2: and we've been warning about the dangers of overregulation. And

1016
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:36,479
Speaker 2: this would be places where people on the right would

1017
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 2: be in that moment when they are out of power

1018
01:00:38,800 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 2: and predisposed to be friendly to libertarians saying like, oh yeah,

1019
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 2: that is something libertarians have been saying, and it is

1020
01:00:43,840 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 2: something that you know, kind of Reaganite conservative maybe once said,

1021
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:48,920
Speaker 2: but we might have lost sight of.

1022
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:52,120
Speaker 1: I think the one place where and this is where

1023
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:55,200
Speaker 1: I want to because you know, there are some sort

1024
01:00:55,240 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 1: of sixty thousand foot point of views of libertarianism where

1025
01:01:00,800 --> 01:01:03,480
Speaker 1: it's easy to get sixty or seventy percent in agreement

1026
01:01:04,120 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 1: of where government shouldn't be. And arguably, you know, if

1027
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:09,560
Speaker 1: you read the Bill of Rights, you could argue that's

1028
01:01:09,600 --> 01:01:13,840
Speaker 1: the libertarian that it's almost like we built in right,

1029
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 1: the sons of liberty for a reason. Right, libertarian is

1030
01:01:16,960 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 1: built off of liberty for a reason. Right. The first

1031
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:23,440
Speaker 1: ten Amendments are those amendments that regardless of your personal

1032
01:01:23,520 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 1: ideology and these and they were designed to protect minority rights. Right,

1033
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:32,520
Speaker 1: people always forget the entire Constitution is premised to minority rights,

1034
01:01:33,640 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 1: and it's always something that I think the majority always

1035
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:36,400
Speaker 1: seems to forget.

1036
01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:41,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, when you're in the majority, you are tempted,

1037
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 2: understandably so to think, you know, this is where we

1038
01:01:44,080 --> 01:01:46,600
Speaker 2: The word mandate always gets thrown around, right, Oh, we

1039
01:01:46,680 --> 01:01:51,120
Speaker 2: have a mandate for first of all, American elections in

1040
01:01:51,200 --> 01:01:54,520
Speaker 2: recent memory haven't given anyone to mandate anywhere as far

1041
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 2: as I'm concerned. They're often very close. There's low participation.

1042
01:01:57,920 --> 01:02:00,200
Speaker 1: To me, sixty percent of mandate and we have had

1043
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:03,800
Speaker 1: a sixty percent president even in job approval ratings. You know,

1044
01:02:03,960 --> 01:02:06,320
Speaker 1: you've had it briefly for Bush at after nine to eleven,

1045
01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:09,880
Speaker 1: and Bill Clinton only got it after they came after

1046
01:02:10,000 --> 01:02:12,480
Speaker 1: him to impeach him for sex. Like Soda was like,

1047
01:02:12,520 --> 01:02:14,400
Speaker 1: well wait a minute, we you know, we liked the job.

1048
01:02:14,480 --> 01:02:16,240
Speaker 1: This guy's do it, but it was only when it

1049
01:02:16,360 --> 01:02:19,560
Speaker 1: was threatened to take away. Right. You really haven't seen

1050
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:21,960
Speaker 1: us with a with a sixty percent mindset as an

1051
01:02:22,000 --> 01:02:23,600
Speaker 1: electorate since the Cold War.

1052
01:02:24,160 --> 01:02:26,240
Speaker 2: Right, So there's this temptation to say, like, we won

1053
01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 2: the election, we do what we want, and I think

1054
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:34,320
Speaker 2: not only is that poisonously bad politics, and especially not

1055
01:02:34,520 --> 01:02:38,640
Speaker 2: just we won the election, but we hold the presidency

1056
01:02:38,720 --> 01:02:40,880
Speaker 2: and we do what we want, because increasingly that is

1057
01:02:41,240 --> 01:02:43,600
Speaker 2: what it means to do things in politics in any way,

1058
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:47,440
Speaker 2: shape or form. Is emergency orders, executive orders. It's all

1059
01:02:47,560 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 2: coming out of the executive Congress.

1060
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:50,360
Speaker 1: You know.

1061
01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:54,440
Speaker 2: The Supreme Court in in their ruling this week begged

1062
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:56,440
Speaker 2: Congress to do their jobs again.

1063
01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:01,240
Speaker 1: Gorsic, the Gorst job ed was something it was so good.

1064
01:03:02,080 --> 01:03:04,360
Speaker 1: Excuse me, I call it a beed because it really was.

1065
01:03:05,160 --> 01:03:07,120
Speaker 2: You were right the first time it is it o ed.

1066
01:03:07,200 --> 01:03:08,960
Speaker 1: He basically was like I got to get something off

1067
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:11,160
Speaker 1: my chest here. Yeah.

1068
01:03:11,320 --> 01:03:13,600
Speaker 2: It was juicy and you know, I have had my

1069
01:03:13,680 --> 01:03:15,680
Speaker 2: disagreements with some of course, such as rulings, but I

1070
01:03:15,720 --> 01:03:18,040
Speaker 2: think the way that he hit the nail on the

1071
01:03:18,080 --> 01:03:21,360
Speaker 2: head there is just you know, it's undeniable.

1072
01:03:21,040 --> 01:03:25,120
Speaker 1: By the way, a Western conservative conservative. I mean, I'm

1073
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:27,640
Speaker 1: just not saying I'm just saying Colorado true.

1074
01:03:28,840 --> 01:03:32,760
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, this, this kind of this

1075
01:03:32,960 --> 01:03:36,760
Speaker 2: idea that we hold power whoever we are and whatever

1076
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:41,280
Speaker 2: power is, and so therefore full speed ahead. When as

1077
01:03:41,360 --> 01:03:44,400
Speaker 2: you say, you know, our founding documents do not endorse

1078
01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 2: that perspective on the presidency or the executive branch. And

1079
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 2: the American public doesn't actually think that either. They don't,

1080
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:56,000
Speaker 2: you know, when you look at the polling, especially about

1081
01:03:57,160 --> 01:04:01,200
Speaker 2: you know about the ice enforcement action in major cities,

1082
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:04,360
Speaker 2: they don't like it. They see it and they don't

1083
01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:06,800
Speaker 2: like it. When you look at the you know, how

1084
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:09,680
Speaker 2: the markets are responding to tariffs, They're seeing it and

1085
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:12,120
Speaker 2: they don't like it. And then you know, additionally, now

1086
01:04:12,160 --> 01:04:14,240
Speaker 2: we have how the court responds. They see it and

1087
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:16,080
Speaker 2: they don't like it. And all of those signals are

1088
01:04:16,120 --> 01:04:18,560
Speaker 2: really meaningful, and the founders meant them to be meaningful.

1089
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:21,439
Speaker 1: You know, you brought up in the in the times

1090
01:04:21,520 --> 01:04:24,040
Speaker 1: up at about you know, the warrantless searches, when it

1091
01:04:24,120 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 1: comes to the ice agents and what we're seeing there.

1092
01:04:27,000 --> 01:04:29,520
Speaker 1: Where are all the conservatives who are up in arms

1093
01:04:29,560 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 1: about giving Obama you know this power, you know, supposedly

1094
01:04:33,640 --> 01:04:36,040
Speaker 1: eavesdropping power. Back when we were fighting the so called

1095
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:39,800
Speaker 1: warrant terror, we're quite a few conservatives. It wasn't a majority,

1096
01:04:39,880 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 1: but it was a healthy minority of conservatives and a

1097
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 1: smaller but a healthy minority of liberals who did raise

1098
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:51,120
Speaker 1: some civil liberties issues at the time on that issue.

1099
01:04:51,720 --> 01:04:53,040
Speaker 1: Where are those folks today?

1100
01:04:54,280 --> 01:04:58,040
Speaker 2: I wish I knew I would find them. I would,

1101
01:04:58,280 --> 01:05:01,440
Speaker 2: you know, bring them into safe shelter here at the

1102
01:05:01,480 --> 01:05:04,400
Speaker 2: Reason Offices. I would. I would give them a hot

1103
01:05:04,520 --> 01:05:07,520
Speaker 2: meal and a blanket, because surely they have been out

1104
01:05:07,560 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 2: in the cold for so long I think, I mean

1105
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:12,960
Speaker 2: the So the actual answer, right is that over the

1106
01:05:13,200 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 2: over the years, the presence of Trump in particular and

1107
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:19,560
Speaker 2: also just in general, the kind of will to power

1108
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:22,640
Speaker 2: conservatism that has risen in the GOP, this kind of

1109
01:05:23,680 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 2: this idea that it is we are no longer we

1110
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:27,720
Speaker 2: no longer have to play fair. The other side has

1111
01:05:27,760 --> 01:05:30,720
Speaker 2: already cheated, so we simply have to seize power and

1112
01:05:30,840 --> 01:05:35,680
Speaker 2: use it justifies, justifies, the means that attitude has sort

1113
01:05:35,720 --> 01:05:38,560
Speaker 2: of become a sendant on the left and the right.

1114
01:05:38,640 --> 01:05:42,320
Speaker 2: But conservatives or Republicans, I should say, have had more

1115
01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:46,200
Speaker 2: chance to put that into action, and that has slowly

1116
01:05:46,360 --> 01:05:50,680
Speaker 2: pushed out a whole bunch of sub types of Republicans

1117
01:05:50,680 --> 01:05:53,919
Speaker 2: and Conservatives who were a little more on the libertarian side.

1118
01:05:54,160 --> 01:05:57,720
Speaker 2: So they've been primaried out. They've been bullied out by Trump.

1119
01:05:57,840 --> 01:05:59,560
Speaker 2: You know, he does, he is not afraid to use

1120
01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 2: his his you know, true social account to just say,

1121
01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:06,960
Speaker 2: you know, Thomas Massey's on the outscrew this guy. And

1122
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:11,080
Speaker 2: and some of them I think just left in despair.

1123
01:06:11,520 --> 01:06:14,360
Speaker 2: I mean a lot of people who I Johnson the

1124
01:06:14,400 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 2: World right, a lot of people who I admired in

1125
01:06:16,640 --> 01:06:19,520
Speaker 2: politics and who were sort of maybe slightly quirky figures

1126
01:06:20,320 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 2: just said I can't do this anymore. Basically anyone from

1127
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:24,720
Speaker 2: Arizona ever.

1128
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:28,880
Speaker 1: Uh, you know Matt Salmon, right, what happened?

1129
01:06:29,120 --> 01:06:31,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, good old Matt Salmon, who I profiled when I

1130
01:06:31,680 --> 01:06:36,320
Speaker 2: was an Internet reason twenty five years ago, and who

1131
01:06:36,480 --> 01:06:40,280
Speaker 2: was you know, a like quite libertarian in many ways,

1132
01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:43,120
Speaker 2: and just you know in that case. Actually I think

1133
01:06:43,160 --> 01:06:45,960
Speaker 2: he was part of the term limited crew, the voluntarily

1134
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:48,720
Speaker 2: self term limited crew who all went out at the

1135
01:06:48,960 --> 01:06:51,640
Speaker 2: and that kind of end stage of the Gingra t Revolution.

1136
01:06:51,880 --> 01:06:55,120
Speaker 1: But here's where I think, you know, if I were

1137
01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:57,480
Speaker 1: to say, boy, this should be a moment for libertarianism,

1138
01:06:57,560 --> 01:06:59,520
Speaker 1: and there's we can and I think you're uped sort

1139
01:06:59,560 --> 01:07:02,680
Speaker 1: of showed it little bit. But if there's one giant

1140
01:07:02,760 --> 01:07:08,120
Speaker 1: area where I have my doubts, it's in how to

1141
01:07:08,200 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 1: deal with big tech m because right there's and to me,

1142
01:07:13,200 --> 01:07:14,760
Speaker 1: this is and and I'd love for you to get

1143
01:07:14,800 --> 01:07:18,720
Speaker 1: at this tension, right, don't know if I love the

1144
01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:23,640
Speaker 1: government forcing, you know, sort of you know, picking winners

1145
01:07:23,680 --> 01:07:28,520
Speaker 1: and losers here overly regulating. At the same time, these

1146
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:33,720
Speaker 1: cats don't deserve an open runway without some restraint, and

1147
01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:36,720
Speaker 1: the market is not mature enough to restrain them at

1148
01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 1: this moment. Right, market restraint hasn't worked the way it

1149
01:07:39,880 --> 01:07:43,760
Speaker 1: should work. There's been too much consolidation. So let me

1150
01:07:43,840 --> 01:07:47,640
Speaker 1: start it this way. It's Teddy Roosevelt a libertarian.

1151
01:07:49,960 --> 01:07:52,400
Speaker 2: For reasons if my own safety, among other things, I

1152
01:07:52,440 --> 01:07:54,840
Speaker 2: wouldn't presume to put a label on that man. Even

1153
01:07:55,040 --> 01:08:00,120
Speaker 2: this many years later. You know, I think that thing

1154
01:08:00,120 --> 01:08:04,080
Speaker 2: about big tech is that almost always when people describe

1155
01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:07,680
Speaker 2: the thing they fear from big tech, what is the

1156
01:08:07,880 --> 01:08:12,080
Speaker 2: what is the consequence that we're looking to to prevent?

1157
01:08:12,280 --> 01:08:14,800
Speaker 2: When we talk about, you know, our worries with big tech,

1158
01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:18,200
Speaker 2: actually it is almost always a fear about the state.

1159
01:08:18,800 --> 01:08:22,439
Speaker 2: And so when I say that, I mean, well, okay,

1160
01:08:22,640 --> 01:08:25,760
Speaker 2: maybe I don't want you know, one company having all

1161
01:08:25,840 --> 01:08:29,120
Speaker 2: my data. Well, okay, why is it because you're worried

1162
01:08:29,160 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 2: that they're going to sell you stuff? No, that's not

1163
01:08:31,160 --> 01:08:37,280
Speaker 2: Why is it because you're worried that they might aggregate

1164
01:08:37,360 --> 01:08:41,560
Speaker 2: that data and you know, paint a portrait of the

1165
01:08:42,800 --> 01:08:46,160
Speaker 2: the market, or or even of the electorate. Okay, maybe,

1166
01:08:46,320 --> 01:08:48,200
Speaker 2: But what we actually are worried about is, well, what

1167
01:08:48,360 --> 01:08:53,519
Speaker 2: happens when the government gets its hands on that data

1168
01:08:53,680 --> 01:08:59,320
Speaker 2: and uses it to punish in prison, censor or otherwise

1169
01:08:59,520 --> 01:09:01,639
Speaker 2: you know, in enjoying your rights. And what we've seen,

1170
01:09:01,680 --> 01:09:03,760
Speaker 2: what we saw, for example in the Twitter files was

1171
01:09:04,160 --> 01:09:08,400
Speaker 2: sometimes big tech gladly cooperates with the state, and I

1172
01:09:08,479 --> 01:09:12,559
Speaker 2: think that is gross and bad. But I'm not sure

1173
01:09:12,600 --> 01:09:15,160
Speaker 2: that the entity at fault or kind of the place

1174
01:09:15,240 --> 01:09:16,800
Speaker 2: that I want to lay the blame there fully is

1175
01:09:16,880 --> 01:09:20,600
Speaker 2: with big tech because of course they understand that, you know,

1176
01:09:21,120 --> 01:09:25,000
Speaker 2: in that instance, the Biden administration, but all presidential administrations.

1177
01:09:26,680 --> 01:09:28,960
Speaker 2: They hold a huge amount of power in that relationship.

1178
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:30,840
Speaker 2: You know, it's a nice it's a nice big tech company.

1179
01:09:30,880 --> 01:09:32,560
Speaker 2: You have, there be a shame if something happened to it.

1180
01:09:32,800 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 2: Is kind of the energy that a lot of these

1181
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:40,599
Speaker 2: interactions have. I, for one, don't mind Mark Zuckerberg selling,

1182
01:09:40,760 --> 01:09:42,920
Speaker 2: trying to sell me, or put in front of my

1183
01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:48,240
Speaker 2: eyeballs whatever videos of AI puppies and you know, Chinese

1184
01:09:48,280 --> 01:09:50,640
Speaker 2: toys he wants to try to sell me. I just

1185
01:09:50,760 --> 01:09:55,280
Speaker 2: don't want to have consequences to my personal freedom. And

1186
01:09:55,360 --> 01:09:57,639
Speaker 2: I think the fear there is that the state acts,

1187
01:09:57,760 --> 01:09:59,120
Speaker 2: not that the tech companies act.

1188
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:02,040
Speaker 1: Well, so, I mean this is where I think that

1189
01:10:02,200 --> 01:10:04,240
Speaker 1: this is another But this is the tension that I

1190
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:09,120
Speaker 1: I'm detecting, which is I think most libertarians agree they

1191
01:10:09,360 --> 01:10:11,960
Speaker 1: distrust anybody who's consolidating power.

1192
01:10:12,680 --> 01:10:15,800
Speaker 2: Right, well, there are lots of types of libertarians, right

1193
01:10:16,240 --> 01:10:21,760
Speaker 2: so I actually think, you know, I hate to be

1194
01:10:21,840 --> 01:10:23,599
Speaker 2: that guy. But it depends what you mean by power.

1195
01:10:23,840 --> 01:10:27,200
Speaker 2: If you mean market power, not necessarily, if you mean

1196
01:10:28,160 --> 01:10:30,760
Speaker 2: monopoly on violence in the anody, I think.

1197
01:10:30,720 --> 01:10:34,080
Speaker 1: It's I think, I know, maybe it's like pornography, you know,

1198
01:10:34,160 --> 01:10:37,519
Speaker 1: when you see it, it's the it's sort of you know,

1199
01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:43,479
Speaker 1: it's monopolistic power, where like Amazon may be a monopoly,

1200
01:10:43,600 --> 01:10:46,680
Speaker 1: but they kind of earned it, right, they just outworked

1201
01:10:46,720 --> 01:10:51,400
Speaker 1: everybody perhaps, And you can make that case. Yeah, you

1202
01:10:51,439 --> 01:10:53,559
Speaker 1: know the fact that they get deliveries at my house,

1203
01:10:53,640 --> 01:10:56,479
Speaker 1: but the US Postal Service still isn't reliable since that

1204
01:10:56,640 --> 01:10:59,680
Speaker 1: first snowstorm, right, It like it tells you you're like, look,

1205
01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:03,439
Speaker 1: whatever you think of them, right, they are customer first.

1206
01:11:03,600 --> 01:11:05,559
Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of wish Jeff Bezos thought about

1207
01:11:05,600 --> 01:11:08,960
Speaker 1: that in the way he owns News a newspaper. But

1208
01:11:09,080 --> 01:11:12,920
Speaker 1: that's okay, But I digress. So they may be a monopoly,

1209
01:11:13,000 --> 01:11:16,080
Speaker 1: but one could argue they earned it. But if you

1210
01:11:16,200 --> 01:11:19,320
Speaker 1: look at when government helps a company, when government is

1211
01:11:19,560 --> 01:11:22,400
Speaker 1: involved and the inner So I guess the question is

1212
01:11:22,479 --> 01:11:24,800
Speaker 1: how do you prevent what Trump is doing right now

1213
01:11:24,960 --> 01:11:28,000
Speaker 1: with the tech industry? Right, that has to come with

1214
01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:30,360
Speaker 1: some government Like you're going to have to have government

1215
01:11:30,439 --> 01:11:33,360
Speaker 1: regulation intervened to stop government from doing what it's doing.

1216
01:11:33,960 --> 01:11:36,200
Speaker 2: Right, And so this is where you get into a

1217
01:11:36,280 --> 01:11:39,240
Speaker 2: horrible circumstance, because any of the solutions that I might

1218
01:11:39,320 --> 01:11:43,679
Speaker 2: propose now, at best are a balance of power solution

1219
01:11:43,800 --> 01:11:47,000
Speaker 2: where one part of government might constrain another part of government,

1220
01:11:47,439 --> 01:11:52,720
Speaker 2: but sometimes are just kind of like a cultural sea

1221
01:11:52,840 --> 01:11:55,880
Speaker 2: change type solution where we would just all agree in

1222
01:11:56,000 --> 01:11:58,200
Speaker 2: some way that this has gone too far and people

1223
01:11:58,240 --> 01:11:58,640
Speaker 2: would win.

1224
01:11:58,920 --> 01:12:01,040
Speaker 1: Our founders would say, well, Congress should rerain this. It

1225
01:12:01,160 --> 01:12:02,360
Speaker 1: to rein it is right their job.

1226
01:12:02,920 --> 01:12:04,599
Speaker 2: So I think this is, you know, what what Trump

1227
01:12:04,640 --> 01:12:06,320
Speaker 2: has done. The place is where Trump has really pushed

1228
01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:08,560
Speaker 2: the envelope in terms of corporate governance, and this is

1229
01:12:08,600 --> 01:12:11,280
Speaker 2: often with respect to big tech, although not always is.

1230
01:12:11,400 --> 01:12:14,640
Speaker 2: He's really moved into like full fledged economic nationalism in

1231
01:12:14,720 --> 01:12:18,240
Speaker 2: ways that his predecessors were not always refusing to do,

1232
01:12:18,360 --> 01:12:21,439
Speaker 2: but a little more hesitant. So this is the Golden Shares.

1233
01:12:21,640 --> 01:12:24,439
Speaker 2: This is you know, with Intel and other This is

1234
01:12:24,520 --> 01:12:29,120
Speaker 2: approval of the TikTok deal, just arbitrarily kind of coming

1235
01:12:29,360 --> 01:12:32,120
Speaker 2: from the from this the federal government a bunch of

1236
01:12:32,160 --> 01:12:35,160
Speaker 2: other things like that, where it's a much more direct

1237
01:12:35,200 --> 01:12:37,280
Speaker 2: intervention in the market. And then when you pair that

1238
01:12:37,439 --> 01:12:42,280
Speaker 2: with the tariffs, where I think Trump just likes tariffs

1239
01:12:42,280 --> 01:12:44,040
Speaker 2: and he does tariffs because he just likes tariffs. And

1240
01:12:44,120 --> 01:12:46,600
Speaker 2: that's a bizarre thing that I can't fully understand. But

1241
01:12:46,720 --> 01:12:50,360
Speaker 2: what it does do is it creates infinite opportunities for cronyism.

1242
01:12:50,479 --> 01:12:52,479
Speaker 2: And that's what you're talking about, right, You're talking about

1243
01:12:53,040 --> 01:12:59,160
Speaker 2: where the prize of buying influence is worth the cost.

1244
01:12:59,360 --> 01:13:02,040
Speaker 2: And so if we have a tariff, but if you

1245
01:13:02,160 --> 01:13:04,439
Speaker 2: know the right guy, you can get an exception from

1246
01:13:04,479 --> 01:13:08,360
Speaker 2: the tariff. And if that guy is always Donald Trump,

1247
01:13:08,360 --> 01:13:12,080
Speaker 2: are one of his children, then that, you know, that

1248
01:13:12,320 --> 01:13:16,479
Speaker 2: creates all these opportunities for the kind of cronyism that,

1249
01:13:16,800 --> 01:13:19,840
Speaker 2: for whatever reason so often does seem to make Americans

1250
01:13:19,880 --> 01:13:24,040
Speaker 2: hate the corporations and not the government. And I would

1251
01:13:24,080 --> 01:13:25,960
Speaker 2: just say, like, hate the government. Hate the government for

1252
01:13:26,080 --> 01:13:30,479
Speaker 2: creating all these opportunities to buy influence. And the solution is,

1253
01:13:31,280 --> 01:13:35,880
Speaker 2: you know, if tariffs are low and simple and implemented

1254
01:13:35,960 --> 01:13:39,240
Speaker 2: equally across the board, there's no influence to buy. If

1255
01:13:39,280 --> 01:13:43,600
Speaker 2: the FCC is disempowered, there's no threats that can be

1256
01:13:43,720 --> 01:13:48,120
Speaker 2: made by the White House to you know, revoke your

1257
01:13:48,120 --> 01:13:52,479
Speaker 2: broadcast license. And that kind of move is just like

1258
01:13:52,520 --> 01:13:55,560
Speaker 2: a very classic libertarian move, Like this is what libertarians

1259
01:13:55,600 --> 01:13:59,200
Speaker 2: have been saying all along is if there is no FCC,

1260
01:14:00,200 --> 01:14:03,400
Speaker 2: you don't have cronyism in that area. If there is

1261
01:14:03,600 --> 01:14:08,120
Speaker 2: no elaborate new tariff scheme every time that someone comes

1262
01:14:08,160 --> 01:14:10,760
Speaker 2: into office, that reduces those opportunities.

1263
01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:14,000
Speaker 1: So this is what you're basically saying is look is

1264
01:14:16,040 --> 01:14:25,679
Speaker 1: regulatory capture can be just as damaging then no regulation itself.

1265
01:14:26,320 --> 01:14:29,800
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, And I well, I mean, I guess I

1266
01:14:29,920 --> 01:14:32,719
Speaker 2: think the the fact.

1267
01:14:32,680 --> 01:14:35,439
Speaker 1: That's what the cronyism leads to, right, which is what

1268
01:14:35,520 --> 01:14:38,920
Speaker 1: the AI guys want. The AI companies are afraid of

1269
01:14:38,960 --> 01:14:42,120
Speaker 1: the states getting involved in regulation, so they want federal

1270
01:14:42,920 --> 01:14:45,960
Speaker 1: right and they're just because they want to, you know,

1271
01:14:46,080 --> 01:14:49,679
Speaker 1: once they get market share, then they want to, Wow,

1272
01:14:49,760 --> 01:14:51,840
Speaker 1: we've got Now we can fix the market because it'll

1273
01:14:51,880 --> 01:14:55,400
Speaker 1: be designed around our piece of the pie. I mean,

1274
01:14:56,479 --> 01:14:59,040
Speaker 1: this is a totally non sequitor, but it drives me crazy,

1275
01:14:59,160 --> 01:15:01,120
Speaker 1: like I do not I want to hear from Nick

1276
01:15:01,160 --> 01:15:04,519
Speaker 1: Saban on fixing college football because Nick Saban just wants

1277
01:15:04,560 --> 01:15:08,679
Speaker 1: to restore the dominance he once had and Alabama once had.

1278
01:15:09,120 --> 01:15:12,719
Speaker 1: So he says, boy, college football is a mess because

1279
01:15:12,720 --> 01:15:16,320
Speaker 1: there's no because the way the order that we previously

1280
01:15:16,520 --> 01:15:20,760
Speaker 1: had is no longer operable. Well, from his point of view,

1281
01:15:20,800 --> 01:15:23,560
Speaker 1: it's a mess, and maybe it is a mess, but

1282
01:15:23,720 --> 01:15:26,200
Speaker 1: you don't want somebody who was the previous beneficiary to

1283
01:15:26,280 --> 01:15:26,920
Speaker 1: be the fixer of.

1284
01:15:26,960 --> 01:15:29,720
Speaker 2: It, right, And so this is you know, as you say,

1285
01:15:29,920 --> 01:15:33,439
Speaker 2: regulatory capture is a huge issue here, rent seeking. I

1286
01:15:33,600 --> 01:15:37,080
Speaker 2: do think though, you know, my perspective is that is

1287
01:15:37,280 --> 01:15:41,840
Speaker 2: all the more reason to have few or simple and

1288
01:15:42,040 --> 01:15:45,960
Speaker 2: very egalitarian regulations. And I think you know, you see this,

1289
01:15:46,160 --> 01:15:50,519
Speaker 2: you see this temptation showing up all kinds of places.

1290
01:15:50,520 --> 01:15:54,160
Speaker 2: I mean, you remember the period whatever it was, maybe

1291
01:15:54,280 --> 01:15:56,839
Speaker 2: like seven or eight years ago, when they kept bringing

1292
01:15:56,880 --> 01:16:00,799
Speaker 2: in the big tech CEOs and founders to sort of testify,

1293
01:16:00,960 --> 01:16:02,880
Speaker 2: and they did. They have hearings and they'd say, like,

1294
01:16:03,560 --> 01:16:07,040
Speaker 2: my iPhone's not working, and then it would be like, sir,

1295
01:16:07,200 --> 01:16:09,800
Speaker 2: I work for Google. Like that whole interaction that was

1296
01:16:09,840 --> 01:16:14,320
Speaker 2: happening regularly, and some of that was about the big

1297
01:16:14,439 --> 01:16:18,560
Speaker 2: tech companies that had become dominant trying to lock in

1298
01:16:18,640 --> 01:16:21,719
Speaker 2: their place. And I think you're quite right that there

1299
01:16:21,880 --> 01:16:23,880
Speaker 2: is and will be more of a similar phenomenon with

1300
01:16:23,960 --> 01:16:26,360
Speaker 2: some of the bigger AI players. But at the same time,

1301
01:16:26,400 --> 01:16:29,160
Speaker 2: what we've seen is there's actually a lot of churn

1302
01:16:29,400 --> 01:16:33,160
Speaker 2: in big tech. Like one of the reasons that debate

1303
01:16:33,280 --> 01:16:35,439
Speaker 2: was happening around Facebook at that time where we were

1304
01:16:35,479 --> 01:16:38,320
Speaker 2: saying should we treat Facebook as a public utility, is

1305
01:16:38,320 --> 01:16:39,960
Speaker 2: because it seemed like they were the biggest game in

1306
01:16:40,040 --> 01:16:43,040
Speaker 2: town and no one would ever break Facebook's hold. And

1307
01:16:43,640 --> 01:16:45,880
Speaker 2: Facebook is certainly still big and certainly still around, but

1308
01:16:45,920 --> 01:16:50,479
Speaker 2: there are several major competitors, and if you look at

1309
01:16:51,000 --> 01:16:52,760
Speaker 2: the market cap or the market you know, the share

1310
01:16:52,800 --> 01:16:55,599
Speaker 2: of users that these different companies have, it changes rapidly.

1311
01:16:55,680 --> 01:16:57,840
Speaker 2: So that does seem to me like market discipline is

1312
01:16:57,880 --> 01:17:00,799
Speaker 2: working to some extent there, like they're not monopolies.

1313
01:17:10,240 --> 01:17:11,840
Speaker 1: Well, I could you know, this is what makes the

1314
01:17:12,080 --> 01:17:16,120
Speaker 1: FCC community, the whole FCC such a weird place now

1315
01:17:16,160 --> 01:17:20,760
Speaker 1: because you know, the monopoly of broadcast television has been

1316
01:17:20,840 --> 01:17:24,400
Speaker 1: broken up by YouTube, right, and the FCC has no

1317
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:27,240
Speaker 1: oversight over YouTube at all, and on YouTube you can

1318
01:17:27,320 --> 01:17:29,160
Speaker 1: use say whatever word you want, and on YouTube you're

1319
01:17:29,160 --> 01:17:31,280
Speaker 1: going to do whatever. You know, there isn't the same

1320
01:17:31,479 --> 01:17:35,960
Speaker 1: FCC sort of you know, So I now it arguably

1321
01:17:36,000 --> 01:17:38,040
Speaker 1: took fifty years for a competitor to come up to

1322
01:17:38,200 --> 01:17:41,320
Speaker 1: break that monopoly or maybe had they not had the

1323
01:17:41,439 --> 01:17:43,880
Speaker 1: FCC in the first place, there would have been more

1324
01:17:43,960 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 1: TV networks popping up on the spectrum than the three

1325
01:17:47,560 --> 01:17:48,040
Speaker 1: that we had.

1326
01:17:48,320 --> 01:17:51,320
Speaker 2: So you know, well, that actually for sure is my argument.

1327
01:17:51,360 --> 01:17:53,240
Speaker 2: I think that is the argument of kind of dynamists

1328
01:17:53,600 --> 01:17:57,479
Speaker 2: or pro market folks, especially in media and communications, is

1329
01:17:57,520 --> 01:18:00,080
Speaker 2: you will you can almost always tell a story and

1330
01:18:00,160 --> 01:18:03,479
Speaker 2: it's a pretty plausible one about how any amount of

1331
01:18:03,520 --> 01:18:07,559
Speaker 2: regulation is in a in a market where there's where,

1332
01:18:07,560 --> 01:18:10,000
Speaker 2: there will be competitors, where there's where, and it's an

1333
01:18:10,040 --> 01:18:14,360
Speaker 2: attractive market, it's so likely to serve to lock in

1334
01:18:14,520 --> 01:18:18,200
Speaker 2: existing players and then they will capitalize on that.

1335
01:18:19,200 --> 01:18:23,320
Speaker 1: So this is how it's like, we're in its purest form. Right.

1336
01:18:23,400 --> 01:18:26,960
Speaker 1: The Libertarians sometimes get tossed aside by saying, well, they

1337
01:18:27,000 --> 01:18:30,600
Speaker 1: don't even believe in driver's licenses, right, Like, and this

1338
01:18:30,840 --> 01:18:33,120
Speaker 1: is where, you know, where where do you draw the

1339
01:18:33,200 --> 01:18:35,720
Speaker 1: line where is some government regulation acceptable?

1340
01:18:36,760 --> 01:18:40,600
Speaker 2: I mean, for me, libertarianism is directional, right, So I

1341
01:18:40,840 --> 01:18:44,320
Speaker 2: would like if we get to a place where you

1342
01:18:44,439 --> 01:18:46,759
Speaker 2: and I have to come back on the check podcast

1343
01:18:46,840 --> 01:18:51,280
Speaker 2: and earnestly debate, like the Driver's license Removal Bill of

1344
01:18:51,439 --> 01:18:53,240
Speaker 2: twenty thirty seven is you're like.

1345
01:18:53,560 --> 01:18:56,519
Speaker 1: We're winning. I don't care, right, I'll leave this, Sue.

1346
01:18:57,120 --> 01:18:59,600
Speaker 2: I am delighted if we get to that place. But

1347
01:18:59,760 --> 01:19:02,519
Speaker 2: we are so far from there right now.

1348
01:19:02,600 --> 01:19:04,320
Speaker 1: No, in fact, just the opposite. I'm going to need

1349
01:19:04,320 --> 01:19:06,599
Speaker 1: a BURS certipicate just to like go to the grocery store.

1350
01:19:09,320 --> 01:19:11,479
Speaker 2: You have a real ID for this. You know.

1351
01:19:13,080 --> 01:19:15,320
Speaker 1: I paid for ticket, so.

1352
01:19:15,520 --> 01:19:18,920
Speaker 2: I think you know, I totally understand. You know that

1353
01:19:19,000 --> 01:19:22,680
Speaker 2: people would say I'm interested in knowing where where you

1354
01:19:22,760 --> 01:19:24,920
Speaker 2: think the limits are, and that's a perfectly legitimate conversation

1355
01:19:25,000 --> 01:19:27,479
Speaker 2: to have. But at this point, and this is sort

1356
01:19:27,479 --> 01:19:29,920
Speaker 2: of what the Times editorial was meant to highlight, like,

1357
01:19:30,320 --> 01:19:33,760
Speaker 2: there are a bunch of places where it's just very

1358
01:19:34,040 --> 01:19:37,600
Speaker 2: very clear that from a libertarian perspective, the critique is

1359
01:19:37,840 --> 01:19:41,400
Speaker 2: broadly shared. Like I think trade actually is the most straightforward.

1360
01:19:42,600 --> 01:19:45,640
Speaker 2: The way that Trump has conducted trade policy in his

1361
01:19:45,840 --> 01:19:52,240
Speaker 2: second term is wildly unmoored both from good economic sense

1362
01:19:52,680 --> 01:19:58,440
Speaker 2: and from legality, like from any kind of constitutional understanding

1363
01:19:58,560 --> 01:20:02,719
Speaker 2: of who holds these powers why, And that just doesn't

1364
01:20:02,720 --> 01:20:03,840
Speaker 2: seem like a hard one to me.

1365
01:20:04,080 --> 01:20:07,360
Speaker 1: That one seems and in fact, you know who knew

1366
01:20:07,400 --> 01:20:09,559
Speaker 1: that this is how the free trade argument would end

1367
01:20:09,760 --> 01:20:12,840
Speaker 1: because I actually think in someone you know Trump is

1368
01:20:12,920 --> 01:20:16,200
Speaker 1: going to be it has been a useful MRI on

1369
01:20:16,560 --> 01:20:22,960
Speaker 1: so many people, entities and ideas. Trade is a big one, right,

1370
01:20:23,120 --> 01:20:26,880
Speaker 1: I mean you've got an entire Democratic Party expressing free

1371
01:20:27,000 --> 01:20:31,000
Speaker 1: trade rhetoric in ways they never would have done even

1372
01:20:31,080 --> 01:20:35,519
Speaker 1: five years ago. Yeah, I mean you know, I'm I'll

1373
01:20:35,640 --> 01:20:38,880
Speaker 1: know for sure that this is over when Shared Brown

1374
01:20:38,960 --> 01:20:42,240
Speaker 1: starts advocating for free trade in his center race, I'm

1375
01:20:42,320 --> 01:20:45,280
Speaker 1: very curious how that plays out, because he's sort of

1376
01:20:45,439 --> 01:20:48,880
Speaker 1: like he is a a bridge to the to the

1377
01:20:49,040 --> 01:20:52,960
Speaker 1: older Democratic Party, the one that used to have all

1378
01:20:53,000 --> 01:20:55,559
Speaker 1: the union workers, and now that it's the it's Trump's

1379
01:20:55,600 --> 01:20:58,360
Speaker 1: party that does so I'm curious there. But it does

1380
01:20:58,479 --> 01:21:02,080
Speaker 1: feel as if this has been a useful lesson in Oh,

1381
01:21:02,840 --> 01:21:05,559
Speaker 1: free trade is why I can get an avocado anytime,

1382
01:21:05,600 --> 01:21:08,280
Speaker 1: maybe you're at the grocery store. Yes, I just that,

1383
01:21:08,960 --> 01:21:10,840
Speaker 1: And that was always the dream and here we are

1384
01:21:10,960 --> 01:21:13,360
Speaker 1: right like, Hey, you don't understand if you start getting

1385
01:21:13,439 --> 01:21:16,720
Speaker 1: rid of this stuff, then then free trade is going

1386
01:21:16,760 --> 01:21:18,720
Speaker 1: to benefit you in ways you haven't thought of. And

1387
01:21:18,840 --> 01:21:20,880
Speaker 1: to me, the produce section is the number one way

1388
01:21:20,920 --> 01:21:24,320
Speaker 1: to show people how free tradeer the last twenty years.

1389
01:21:24,360 --> 01:21:29,080
Speaker 1: I mean, I forgot how seasonal the produce section used

1390
01:21:29,080 --> 01:21:30,599
Speaker 1: to be in a grocery store. I worked in one

1391
01:21:30,840 --> 01:21:32,640
Speaker 1: was in the eighties and before when I was in

1392
01:21:32,720 --> 01:21:36,040
Speaker 1: night school in college. And now you're like, oh, right,

1393
01:21:36,160 --> 01:21:38,800
Speaker 1: we've gotten rid of seasonality basically in the twenty first

1394
01:21:38,800 --> 01:21:40,960
Speaker 1: century due to lowering trade barriers.

1395
01:21:41,600 --> 01:21:47,000
Speaker 2: I was talking with my son, who had heard about,

1396
01:21:47,479 --> 01:21:52,680
Speaker 2: but never consumed a red Delicious apple, and he was like,

1397
01:21:53,120 --> 01:21:55,840
Speaker 2: what was the deal with those? Because they were bad?

1398
01:21:56,120 --> 01:21:56,240
Speaker 1: Right?

1399
01:21:57,000 --> 01:22:01,040
Speaker 2: And I was like, well, okay, And we got into

1400
01:22:01,080 --> 01:22:03,360
Speaker 2: it right, and we're talking about how the supply chain

1401
01:22:03,479 --> 01:22:05,320
Speaker 2: used to be so different for grocery stores, and our

1402
01:22:05,360 --> 01:22:08,600
Speaker 2: transportation technology used to be so different. Consumers used to

1403
01:22:08,640 --> 01:22:11,920
Speaker 2: be so much less discerning. You know, we were prioritizing

1404
01:22:12,200 --> 01:22:14,360
Speaker 2: an apple the wooden bruise and would still look shiny

1405
01:22:14,479 --> 01:22:16,600
Speaker 2: and like who cares so much about the inside? And

1406
01:22:16,720 --> 01:22:20,880
Speaker 2: last long time. And we had this whole conversation about

1407
01:22:20,920 --> 01:22:24,240
Speaker 2: how that thing made sense in that moment, and he

1408
01:22:24,760 --> 01:22:27,280
Speaker 2: has lived his entire life in a radically different moment

1409
01:22:27,360 --> 01:22:31,040
Speaker 2: that's totally marked by by free trade and by all

1410
01:22:31,040 --> 01:22:34,760
Speaker 2: of the technologies that support it. I do think though,

1411
01:22:34,800 --> 01:22:36,560
Speaker 2: the thing you're describing where a bunch of people on

1412
01:22:36,600 --> 01:22:39,400
Speaker 2: the left are suddenly like, ooh, free movement of people

1413
01:22:39,680 --> 01:22:44,479
Speaker 2: and goods across borders. That sounds great. The flip side, though,

1414
01:22:44,880 --> 01:22:47,800
Speaker 2: the other side of the horseshoe, where we have people

1415
01:22:47,920 --> 01:22:52,960
Speaker 2: on the left and the right agreeing deeply confusingly for

1416
01:22:53,160 --> 01:22:58,240
Speaker 2: me on we should all live simpler lives with only

1417
01:22:58,320 --> 01:23:02,200
Speaker 2: one kind of deodorant and do the manufacturing here. And

1418
01:23:02,760 --> 01:23:07,720
Speaker 2: you know the kind of Tucker Carlson meets Elizabeth Warren. Uh,

1419
01:23:08,520 --> 01:23:13,200
Speaker 2: you know, it's a form of nationalism, right isomic policy again,

1420
01:23:13,280 --> 01:23:15,360
Speaker 2: That's that's where we end up. And I think the

1421
01:23:15,560 --> 01:23:19,600
Speaker 2: shared rhetoric at that side of things is more reactionary,

1422
01:23:19,640 --> 01:23:21,479
Speaker 2: both from the left and the right. And you are

1423
01:23:21,600 --> 01:23:24,840
Speaker 2: right that what's happening is this kind of ever fatter

1424
01:23:25,120 --> 01:23:31,720
Speaker 2: middle that remembers that we like grapes. But but we

1425
01:23:31,840 --> 01:23:33,400
Speaker 2: had that a little at the end of Trump's first

1426
01:23:33,520 --> 01:23:37,400
Speaker 2: term and then it sort of faded away. So I'm

1427
01:23:37,439 --> 01:23:41,000
Speaker 2: a little concerned that what looks like maybe a popular

1428
01:23:41,080 --> 01:23:43,040
Speaker 2: movement or some kind of agreement or god forbid, we

1429
01:23:43,120 --> 01:23:47,040
Speaker 2: call it again the libertarian moment. I'm concerned about how

1430
01:23:47,080 --> 01:23:48,280
Speaker 2: to lock that in.

1431
01:23:49,120 --> 01:23:52,560
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, here's I'll give you another challenge for

1432
01:23:52,760 --> 01:23:54,920
Speaker 1: my subject. This week, I wrote off of a survey

1433
01:23:55,000 --> 01:23:58,479
Speaker 1: that my friend Dante Cheni did with what he calls

1434
01:23:58,520 --> 01:24:01,320
Speaker 1: the what he works on. It's called the American Communities Project,

1435
01:24:01,360 --> 01:24:04,160
Speaker 1: and it put it divides the electorate up by county

1436
01:24:04,200 --> 01:24:07,240
Speaker 1: type and it's like fifteen different types. And it's so

1437
01:24:07,320 --> 01:24:09,760
Speaker 1: it's less ideological. It's more like, you know, here's what

1438
01:24:09,880 --> 01:24:13,160
Speaker 1: folks that live in the rural south versus the evangelical

1439
01:24:13,240 --> 01:24:16,840
Speaker 1: hubs things in this various And one of the he

1440
01:24:17,000 --> 01:24:20,600
Speaker 1: was writing about, where do where are their large agreements

1441
01:24:20,720 --> 01:24:23,160
Speaker 1: even between the most rural parts of this country and

1442
01:24:23,160 --> 01:24:26,160
Speaker 1: the most urban parts of this country. It's on the

1443
01:24:27,439 --> 01:24:30,639
Speaker 1: belief in the social safety net. So when I think

1444
01:24:30,680 --> 01:24:34,560
Speaker 1: about the quote libertarian moment, how do you have a

1445
01:24:34,640 --> 01:24:37,639
Speaker 1: libertarian moment and be supportive of the social safety net?

1446
01:24:37,760 --> 01:24:37,800
Speaker 2: Like?

1447
01:24:37,840 --> 01:24:39,360
Speaker 1: Where do you draw the line? And I know you

1448
01:24:39,520 --> 01:24:42,360
Speaker 1: talked about it directionally, but I think this is when

1449
01:24:42,360 --> 01:24:47,400
Speaker 1: I've thought about ways that where generally what the libertarians

1450
01:24:47,520 --> 01:24:51,000
Speaker 1: are advocating are very agreeable. When you start to get

1451
01:24:51,040 --> 01:24:55,680
Speaker 1: to specifics, that's where people fall off right and the

1452
01:24:55,720 --> 01:24:57,040
Speaker 1: social safety net is a big one.

1453
01:24:57,600 --> 01:25:00,320
Speaker 2: And arguably the last libertarian moment was sometime around the

1454
01:25:00,360 --> 01:25:05,280
Speaker 2: Tea Party, which you remember, and you know, that was

1455
01:25:05,320 --> 01:25:09,640
Speaker 2: about in its original form, was about fiscal responsibility and

1456
01:25:09,720 --> 01:25:13,240
Speaker 2: government spending. But it also gave us the immortal and

1457
01:25:13,920 --> 01:25:16,760
Speaker 2: frankly maybe apocryphal. I'm not sure if how real it

1458
01:25:16,960 --> 01:25:19,040
Speaker 2: was or how widespread, but the government hands off my

1459
01:25:19,080 --> 01:25:20,960
Speaker 2: medicare protest sign?

1460
01:25:21,160 --> 01:25:23,320
Speaker 1: Right? Oh? That was that was when like, uh oh,

1461
01:25:23,680 --> 01:25:25,679
Speaker 1: we really have a civics education problem?

1462
01:25:25,800 --> 01:25:29,040
Speaker 2: I see, My uh oh? Wasn't we have a civics

1463
01:25:29,120 --> 01:25:30,519
Speaker 2: education problem? Though we do?

1464
01:25:30,960 --> 01:25:31,920
Speaker 1: My uh oh was.

1465
01:25:34,040 --> 01:25:36,719
Speaker 2: We found that we found the edge of people's willingness

1466
01:25:36,760 --> 01:25:40,120
Speaker 2: to cut things, and it is well south of what

1467
01:25:40,240 --> 01:25:42,680
Speaker 2: we're going to need to cut to solve this problem. Right.

1468
01:25:43,160 --> 01:25:48,240
Speaker 2: So I would say, again, there are plenty of folks

1469
01:25:48,240 --> 01:25:51,200
Speaker 2: who identify as libertarians and support some form of social

1470
01:25:51,240 --> 01:25:53,879
Speaker 2: safety net, but I think that that is a radically

1471
01:25:53,960 --> 01:25:56,240
Speaker 2: different thing than what we have right now. So what

1472
01:25:56,360 --> 01:25:59,840
Speaker 2: we have right now is, you know, for older people,

1473
01:26:00,080 --> 01:26:03,479
Speaker 2: we have a universal entitlement. Right. It is a it

1474
01:26:03,560 --> 01:26:06,120
Speaker 2: is a transfer to the It.

1475
01:26:06,200 --> 01:26:09,000
Speaker 1: Was originally pitched as poverty prevention, right, and it's.

1476
01:26:08,880 --> 01:26:11,200
Speaker 2: Not if they transfer to one of the wealthiest demographics.

1477
01:26:11,320 --> 01:26:14,559
Speaker 2: It goes to everyone without much regard to their income.

1478
01:26:15,479 --> 01:26:18,479
Speaker 2: We've been extremely reluctant to push up the age limit

1479
01:26:18,640 --> 01:26:22,160
Speaker 2: more than just a couple of years, despite people living

1480
01:26:22,240 --> 01:26:26,519
Speaker 2: longer and being healthier. There's all these places where a

1481
01:26:26,600 --> 01:26:28,960
Speaker 2: thing that has that was pitched as a social safety

1482
01:26:29,000 --> 01:26:33,479
Speaker 2: net is is operating totally unlike you would expect a

1483
01:26:33,560 --> 01:26:36,640
Speaker 2: reasonable social safety net to operate. And I think you

1484
01:26:36,680 --> 01:26:38,519
Speaker 2: can see that with Social Security, you can see it

1485
01:26:38,600 --> 01:26:42,400
Speaker 2: with our health care entitlements, especially Medicare, and you know,

1486
01:26:42,479 --> 01:26:43,400
Speaker 2: we can also see.

1487
01:26:43,240 --> 01:26:43,519
Speaker 1: It in.

1488
01:26:45,760 --> 01:26:48,400
Speaker 2: All kinds of other places where I think you can

1489
01:26:48,439 --> 01:26:51,960
Speaker 2: get even more controversial, like education entitlements. Right, I'm not

1490
01:26:52,080 --> 01:26:54,640
Speaker 2: saying cut public schools.

1491
01:26:54,360 --> 01:26:57,040
Speaker 1: Tomorrow, but I am saying, what about loans?

1492
01:26:57,800 --> 01:27:00,320
Speaker 2: Student loans is a great example of you know, we

1493
01:27:00,720 --> 01:27:03,880
Speaker 2: like the amount of student loan debt that is held

1494
01:27:03,920 --> 01:27:08,400
Speaker 2: by people in possession of master's degrees. Just that, like,

1495
01:27:08,600 --> 01:27:12,360
Speaker 2: just that simple fact really puts paid to me to

1496
01:27:12,520 --> 01:27:16,080
Speaker 2: the idea that that is a poverty alleviation program, right,

1497
01:27:16,439 --> 01:27:19,120
Speaker 2: And in fact, we've built it to encourage the acquisition

1498
01:27:19,200 --> 01:27:22,679
Speaker 2: of that kind of debt. In particular, you know, people

1499
01:27:22,720 --> 01:27:24,800
Speaker 2: who will carry one hundred thousand dollars of student loan

1500
01:27:24,920 --> 01:27:27,639
Speaker 2: debt are people who are better off than most people.

1501
01:27:28,200 --> 01:27:30,240
Speaker 1: And these idea is, why does a creditor agree to

1502
01:27:30,320 --> 01:27:32,240
Speaker 1: do that if you're trying to because they assume you're

1503
01:27:32,240 --> 01:27:34,200
Speaker 1: actually going to have better earning power, You're going to

1504
01:27:34,320 --> 01:27:36,439
Speaker 1: use that degree to go get better earning power and

1505
01:27:36,479 --> 01:27:38,599
Speaker 1: therefore actually be a pretty safe credit risk.

1506
01:27:39,280 --> 01:27:41,120
Speaker 2: Well, and the fact that of course you can't dislarge

1507
01:27:41,360 --> 01:27:46,160
Speaker 2: dislodge student discharged student loan debt unlike other types of

1508
01:27:46,200 --> 01:27:49,840
Speaker 2: debts makes it a safer bad as well. So I think,

1509
01:27:50,240 --> 01:27:53,560
Speaker 2: you know, again, that's that's another program, this hugely expensive

1510
01:27:54,120 --> 01:27:58,920
Speaker 2: that is sort of sold to some kind of you know,

1511
01:27:59,520 --> 01:28:03,960
Speaker 2: equity enhancing program and is in fact functioning nothing like that.

1512
01:28:04,720 --> 01:28:07,240
Speaker 2: If we had any appetite for talking about any of

1513
01:28:07,280 --> 01:28:10,920
Speaker 2: those things and cutting back benefits to the already wealthy

1514
01:28:11,080 --> 01:28:14,440
Speaker 2: and really building a real safety net, lots of libertarians

1515
01:28:14,439 --> 01:28:16,679
Speaker 2: would say, like, fine, let's get there. And then again,

1516
01:28:17,720 --> 01:28:20,720
Speaker 2: if we want to talk about really intense, you know,

1517
01:28:20,840 --> 01:28:24,760
Speaker 2: minimal government stuff down the line, we can do it.

1518
01:28:24,960 --> 01:28:26,719
Speaker 2: But we're so far.

1519
01:28:29,000 --> 01:28:31,479
Speaker 1: No, I mean, and that's the I mean, it's sort

1520
01:28:31,520 --> 01:28:35,080
Speaker 1: of like while there's glimmers of hope for the movement

1521
01:28:35,720 --> 01:28:39,559
Speaker 1: when you look at trade in other ways. Right, I mean,

1522
01:28:39,640 --> 01:28:43,960
Speaker 1: the amount of people who think government should have an

1523
01:28:44,040 --> 01:28:47,200
Speaker 1: act a more active roles pretty pretty large now because

1524
01:28:47,240 --> 01:28:50,000
Speaker 1: it is although you know, you did see it in debt.

1525
01:28:50,080 --> 01:28:51,840
Speaker 1: Most of all of our lives, government's been a big

1526
01:28:51,920 --> 01:28:52,320
Speaker 1: part of them.

1527
01:28:52,720 --> 01:28:54,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, you did see on the student loan debt question.

1528
01:28:54,800 --> 01:28:57,360
Speaker 2: There was some pushback, right, and not just from the courts,

1529
01:28:57,439 --> 01:29:00,880
Speaker 2: who rightly noted that Biden's plans were all totally unconstitutional.

1530
01:29:01,600 --> 01:29:03,880
Speaker 1: I never understood why that, because there was an easy

1531
01:29:03,920 --> 01:29:06,400
Speaker 1: way to sell that, which is, if you if they

1532
01:29:06,600 --> 01:29:08,720
Speaker 1: if you ask people to do something to get the

1533
01:29:08,800 --> 01:29:11,560
Speaker 1: debt retired, i e. Service to the country in some

1534
01:29:11,800 --> 01:29:15,559
Speaker 1: form six months here, worked there, whatever it is, you'd

1535
01:29:15,600 --> 01:29:18,439
Speaker 1: add support for it, right Like there is sort of

1536
01:29:18,720 --> 01:29:21,960
Speaker 1: a the public would have been more supportive of the

1537
01:29:22,040 --> 01:29:27,320
Speaker 1: student debt relief if there had been something that said

1538
01:29:27,360 --> 01:29:28,880
Speaker 1: student had to get back to the country.

1539
01:29:29,400 --> 01:29:31,280
Speaker 2: I think that's true, But I also think there were

1540
01:29:31,400 --> 01:29:34,840
Speaker 2: just a lot of people who said, listen, I didn't

1541
01:29:34,840 --> 01:29:36,479
Speaker 2: go to college at all because I couldn't afford it,

1542
01:29:37,000 --> 01:29:39,200
Speaker 2: or I took out some debt and then I paid

1543
01:29:39,200 --> 01:29:42,080
Speaker 2: it back, and I don't know why we would be

1544
01:29:42,320 --> 01:29:44,839
Speaker 2: forgiving debt for people who are clearly not the neediest

1545
01:29:45,520 --> 01:29:47,640
Speaker 2: or least twelve off in our country. And so I

1546
01:29:47,720 --> 01:29:51,400
Speaker 2: do think that argument has some purchase. But you are

1547
01:29:51,479 --> 01:29:58,160
Speaker 2: quite right that the political coalition for cutting Medicare and

1548
01:29:58,200 --> 01:30:01,680
Speaker 2: Medicaid social security, which in the you know, in the

1549
01:30:01,800 --> 01:30:04,599
Speaker 2: late nineties early aughts, there was like this little moment

1550
01:30:04,680 --> 01:30:06,280
Speaker 2: when it was like, could we do it? Are we

1551
01:30:06,360 --> 01:30:09,080
Speaker 2: going to do it? And then absolutely not. We did

1552
01:30:09,160 --> 01:30:12,400
Speaker 2: not do it. The Tea Party tried again, absolutely not.

1553
01:30:12,800 --> 01:30:17,080
Speaker 2: So it's an idea that hasn't really risen into any

1554
01:30:17,120 --> 01:30:18,679
Speaker 2: kind of political reality in a long time.

1555
01:30:28,360 --> 01:30:30,559
Speaker 1: Could you sell a libertarian on this thought, because as

1556
01:30:30,600 --> 01:30:35,040
Speaker 1: I've been look, I'm in an entrepreneurial stage, like a

1557
01:30:35,120 --> 01:30:38,839
Speaker 1: lot of people that leave a big company, big corporation

1558
01:30:39,000 --> 01:30:41,880
Speaker 1: after a period of time, and I've in the middle

1559
01:30:41,920 --> 01:30:44,439
Speaker 1: of starting a couple of different small businesses, and the

1560
01:30:44,479 --> 01:30:49,360
Speaker 1: biggest impediment in trying to get employees or something is

1561
01:30:49,400 --> 01:30:55,040
Speaker 1: the cost of benefits. They're just it's is there a

1562
01:30:55,120 --> 01:30:58,639
Speaker 1: libertarian argument for national healthcare? Oh?

1563
01:30:58,920 --> 01:31:00,720
Speaker 2: No, We're going to go the other way on that one.

1564
01:31:00,800 --> 01:31:03,280
Speaker 1: My friend, all right, so hear me out, which is,

1565
01:31:03,720 --> 01:31:05,599
Speaker 1: it is a lot easier to start a small business

1566
01:31:06,760 --> 01:31:09,600
Speaker 1: if I don't have to also worry about trying to

1567
01:31:09,640 --> 01:31:12,560
Speaker 1: figure out how to get a health care plan to

1568
01:31:12,600 --> 01:31:16,840
Speaker 1: pay for every everybody here care and get some people

1569
01:31:16,880 --> 01:31:20,400
Speaker 1: a childcare benefit. If the government took both of those

1570
01:31:20,479 --> 01:31:24,040
Speaker 1: things off my plate, I'd have an easier time starting

1571
01:31:24,120 --> 01:31:24,639
Speaker 1: up a business.

1572
01:31:25,680 --> 01:31:28,639
Speaker 2: So I have good news for you. Uh, the government

1573
01:31:28,880 --> 01:31:31,920
Speaker 2: put both of those things on your plate, and it

1574
01:31:32,000 --> 01:31:36,080
Speaker 2: could take them off by changing some of our underlying

1575
01:31:36,360 --> 01:31:39,640
Speaker 2: tax and legal requirements. So I'm sure you know this.

1576
01:31:40,120 --> 01:31:44,599
Speaker 2: The fact that employers provide healthcare insurance as a matter

1577
01:31:44,680 --> 01:31:47,160
Speaker 2: of course in the United States is entirely an artifact

1578
01:31:47,240 --> 01:31:52,800
Speaker 2: of the post World War two kind of leftover price

1579
01:31:52,880 --> 01:31:58,559
Speaker 2: controls and kind of regularly regulatory controls around conversation increases.

1580
01:31:58,640 --> 01:32:01,040
Speaker 2: So there were you know, caps and how much you

1581
01:32:01,080 --> 01:32:03,680
Speaker 2: could pay people. Employers wanted to attract good employees. They

1582
01:32:03,720 --> 01:32:06,720
Speaker 2: realized they could offer these benefits and they didn't count

1583
01:32:06,720 --> 01:32:12,000
Speaker 2: against those caps. So the tax benefit that you know

1584
01:32:12,120 --> 01:32:15,000
Speaker 2: accrues to you if you provide these benefits is kind

1585
01:32:15,000 --> 01:32:19,719
Speaker 2: of an extra little cherry. We could undo that whole

1586
01:32:19,800 --> 01:32:22,800
Speaker 2: system and we could have a provision of healthcare that

1587
01:32:22,960 --> 01:32:26,760
Speaker 2: is done like we provide all kinds of other absolutely

1588
01:32:26,880 --> 01:32:30,200
Speaker 2: necessary to life goods, which is in the private market.

1589
01:32:30,600 --> 01:32:32,920
Speaker 2: So I agree it's a huge cost to people who

1590
01:32:32,920 --> 01:32:34,559
Speaker 2: want to start a business to have to figure out

1591
01:32:34,600 --> 01:32:37,920
Speaker 2: how to provide these services. But you know, you don't

1592
01:32:37,960 --> 01:32:41,760
Speaker 2: have to provide food to your employees, right right, even

1593
01:32:41,800 --> 01:32:43,800
Speaker 2: though that's totally they have to have food to live

1594
01:32:43,880 --> 01:32:44,200
Speaker 2: and work.

1595
01:32:44,240 --> 01:32:46,640
Speaker 1: That's the rest thing, right they So.

1596
01:32:47,560 --> 01:32:50,599
Speaker 2: The kind of libertarianism one oh one argument is there

1597
01:32:50,680 --> 01:32:52,320
Speaker 2: is no reason why we can't have a market in

1598
01:32:52,400 --> 01:32:54,920
Speaker 2: healthcare and or a market in health insurance, which of

1599
01:32:54,920 --> 01:32:59,360
Speaker 2: course are two different things. And similarly, you know, childcare

1600
01:32:59,640 --> 01:33:04,160
Speaker 2: is you know, absolutely choked with regulation right now, and

1601
01:33:04,680 --> 01:33:08,320
Speaker 2: that's getting worse. We're actually more aggressively regulating childcare providers

1602
01:33:08,360 --> 01:33:11,120
Speaker 2: than we ever have in the past, and it's creating

1603
01:33:11,200 --> 01:33:14,640
Speaker 2: a totally unsurprising set of shortages and price increases. So

1604
01:33:15,160 --> 01:33:18,000
Speaker 2: I think these are places where, of course you're right

1605
01:33:18,080 --> 01:33:22,080
Speaker 2: that those are barriers to entrepreneurship, but it's not. It's

1606
01:33:22,200 --> 01:33:24,040
Speaker 2: the solution, isn't What if the government just gave.

1607
01:33:23,920 --> 01:33:25,960
Speaker 1: Everyone every no, And I hear you, this is one

1608
01:33:26,000 --> 01:33:29,200
Speaker 1: of those where you're like, well, boy, I'd love to

1609
01:33:29,280 --> 01:33:31,800
Speaker 1: rewind the tape seventy years, but that's tough to do.

1610
01:33:32,800 --> 01:33:37,160
Speaker 2: I mean I think that there's there are First of all,

1611
01:33:37,520 --> 01:33:39,960
Speaker 2: I am close personal friends with plenty of wonks that

1612
01:33:39,960 --> 01:33:41,840
Speaker 2: would be happy to sit here and talk for forty

1613
01:33:41,880 --> 01:33:44,160
Speaker 2: five minutes about exactly how we could do this stuff.

1614
01:33:44,479 --> 01:33:46,639
Speaker 2: You've been at parties with those guys and they are fun.

1615
01:33:47,320 --> 01:33:50,080
Speaker 2: But you know, I do think there are ways to

1616
01:33:50,200 --> 01:33:52,360
Speaker 2: unwind it, and we've tried over the years. In some

1617
01:33:52,800 --> 01:33:56,840
Speaker 2: perverse ways. Obamacare contained the seeds of some of that.

1618
01:33:57,280 --> 01:33:59,599
Speaker 1: No, it did. I mean, it was trying to take

1619
01:34:00,000 --> 01:34:01,639
Speaker 1: I mean, the fact is there are people that stay

1620
01:34:01,680 --> 01:34:05,400
Speaker 1: in jobs simply because they can't afford healthcare. I mean,

1621
01:34:05,880 --> 01:34:10,559
Speaker 1: you know it is, you know. I it was interesting

1622
01:34:10,640 --> 01:34:13,960
Speaker 1: to experience what is clearly a fraudulent market. And I'll

1623
01:34:13,960 --> 01:34:16,320
Speaker 1: tell you what that fraudulent market is here in a second.

1624
01:34:16,800 --> 01:34:20,680
Speaker 1: When I was in the midst of changing insurance providers

1625
01:34:20,880 --> 01:34:23,760
Speaker 1: and there was a there was tech. I thought I

1626
01:34:23,840 --> 01:34:25,519
Speaker 1: followed all the rules so that there'd be no gap,

1627
01:34:25,560 --> 01:34:27,560
Speaker 1: but there was a one day gap and thanks to

1628
01:34:27,600 --> 01:34:30,280
Speaker 1: the friendly pharmacy benefit managers, they say well, we only

1629
01:34:30,360 --> 01:34:32,720
Speaker 1: update our files once a week. And you're like, oh great,

1630
01:34:32,760 --> 01:34:35,200
Speaker 1: So I basically had a week where I couldn't get

1631
01:34:36,000 --> 01:34:40,920
Speaker 1: the prescriptions covered by insurance until this paper the computer

1632
01:34:41,040 --> 01:34:44,000
Speaker 1: caught up. And if I wanted to get the prescription

1633
01:34:44,160 --> 01:34:47,400
Speaker 1: in that moment and I've gotten reimbursed instead of costing

1634
01:34:47,560 --> 01:34:49,560
Speaker 1: thirty dollars, it was going to cost six hundred and

1635
01:34:49,600 --> 01:34:54,720
Speaker 1: fifty dollars. And you're sitting there going six hundred and

1636
01:34:54,760 --> 01:34:57,439
Speaker 1: fifty dollars. But if I have this insurance, it's thirty dollars.

1637
01:34:57,479 --> 01:35:00,439
Speaker 1: What am I missing here? Right? This is thing where

1638
01:35:00,600 --> 01:35:05,160
Speaker 1: neither price is accurate, right, and this prices are phony,

1639
01:35:05,360 --> 01:35:08,679
Speaker 1: and yet this is the system we are. So it's like, well, geez,

1640
01:35:08,720 --> 01:35:11,080
Speaker 1: I got to have this benefits. But you're like, I

1641
01:35:11,200 --> 01:35:14,800
Speaker 1: have a feeling if everybody were staring at a six

1642
01:35:14,920 --> 01:35:18,599
Speaker 1: hundred dollars cost, by the way, for blood pressure medication,

1643
01:35:18,880 --> 01:35:21,400
Speaker 1: this is like mainstream medication. I wasn't talking about some

1644
01:35:21,800 --> 01:35:24,920
Speaker 1: boutique cancer drug or even a nozempic. I mean just

1645
01:35:25,040 --> 01:35:27,760
Speaker 1: your basic sort of you know, to keep your blood

1646
01:35:27,800 --> 01:35:33,160
Speaker 1: pressure in check. And it was this false essentially, you know,

1647
01:35:34,040 --> 01:35:36,120
Speaker 1: it's either thirty dollars or it's six hundred dollars. You're

1648
01:35:36,120 --> 01:35:40,040
Speaker 1: like this, something's missing here, the market's not involved.

1649
01:35:40,920 --> 01:35:43,760
Speaker 2: Well, and I think the phrase like phony prices, like

1650
01:35:43,840 --> 01:35:47,439
Speaker 2: these fake prices, that's that is the key actually to

1651
01:35:47,680 --> 01:35:50,839
Speaker 2: almost all of the dysfunction in the way that healthcare

1652
01:35:50,960 --> 01:35:55,599
Speaker 2: is provided in this country. Because we no one can

1653
01:35:55,760 --> 01:35:59,559
Speaker 2: see prices anywhere in the system. Prices are very very

1654
01:36:00,520 --> 01:36:03,200
Speaker 2: to all parties. So the doctor actually doesn't know how

1655
01:36:03,280 --> 01:36:05,559
Speaker 2: much you're getting charged. You don't know how much you're

1656
01:36:05,560 --> 01:36:08,360
Speaker 2: getting charged to the insurance company on some level has

1657
01:36:08,400 --> 01:36:10,479
Speaker 2: this information, but they of course are also taking their

1658
01:36:10,560 --> 01:36:14,240
Speaker 2: cues from the government set prices that that come out

1659
01:36:14,280 --> 01:36:17,160
Speaker 2: of uh I was going to be crut They come

1660
01:36:17,200 --> 01:36:20,520
Speaker 2: out of someone's head in a in a government.

1661
01:36:20,280 --> 01:36:25,280
Speaker 1: Office, and and the people have their head up there

1662
01:36:25,280 --> 01:36:25,599
Speaker 1: as well.

1663
01:36:26,040 --> 01:36:30,600
Speaker 2: Yes, and all of the prices are fake. And I

1664
01:36:30,680 --> 01:36:32,960
Speaker 2: think one of the most important, like if you were

1665
01:36:33,000 --> 01:36:34,479
Speaker 2: to ask me, like one of the what is one

1666
01:36:34,479 --> 01:36:38,599
Speaker 2: of the core insights that has like shaped your personal

1667
01:36:38,640 --> 01:36:42,400
Speaker 2: political philosophy, It's that prices contain information and we are

1668
01:36:42,479 --> 01:36:48,400
Speaker 2: being you know, totally deprived of that information in the healthcare.

1669
01:36:48,520 --> 01:36:50,800
Speaker 1: Well, that's what we're being gas lit, stright and.

1670
01:36:50,840 --> 01:36:53,559
Speaker 2: We're being lied to, we're being we're being given sort

1671
01:36:53,600 --> 01:36:57,040
Speaker 2: of seemingly true information, none of which is really true,

1672
01:36:57,080 --> 01:36:59,000
Speaker 2: and so of course we all think we're losing our minds.

1673
01:37:00,080 --> 01:37:03,960
Speaker 2: So I think again, it's we don't have to stretch

1674
01:37:04,040 --> 01:37:06,920
Speaker 2: that hard to imagine a world where we know the

1675
01:37:07,000 --> 01:37:09,120
Speaker 2: prices of things and then make decisions about how to

1676
01:37:09,160 --> 01:37:13,320
Speaker 2: consume them based on those prices. That's all the other

1677
01:37:13,520 --> 01:37:15,559
Speaker 2: market like, That's what I do when I think about

1678
01:37:15,560 --> 01:37:18,400
Speaker 2: whether I'm going to buy books or food or even

1679
01:37:18,479 --> 01:37:20,479
Speaker 2: dental care, where we at least can sort of see

1680
01:37:20,520 --> 01:37:23,439
Speaker 2: those prices, right, I mean, that market has its flaws,

1681
01:37:23,479 --> 01:37:25,960
Speaker 2: but is much more efficient. And of course people are

1682
01:37:26,000 --> 01:37:28,560
Speaker 2: going to say, well, what about people who can't afford it?

1683
01:37:28,880 --> 01:37:31,400
Speaker 2: And that's what a safety net might look like. Is

1684
01:37:31,760 --> 01:37:34,040
Speaker 2: for the people who really can't pay for their blood

1685
01:37:34,040 --> 01:37:36,559
Speaker 2: presure medicine. What do we do? And we have as

1686
01:37:36,600 --> 01:37:38,360
Speaker 2: a society also a lot of answers to that.

1687
01:37:40,240 --> 01:37:43,320
Speaker 1: Well, let me get you one area where to go

1688
01:37:43,400 --> 01:37:48,639
Speaker 1: back to Obamacare, which actually was creating where some would

1689
01:37:48,720 --> 01:37:51,439
Speaker 1: argue this is why the market is just harder to

1690
01:37:53,880 --> 01:37:57,960
Speaker 1: make it competitive. Is if you tell an insurance company

1691
01:37:58,040 --> 01:38:02,519
Speaker 1: that cannot use a pre exit, they cannot use a

1692
01:38:02,600 --> 01:38:09,160
Speaker 1: pre existing condition two to price your insurance policy.

1693
01:38:09,680 --> 01:38:09,760
Speaker 4: And.

1694
01:38:11,560 --> 01:38:16,439
Speaker 1: That this you know. I well, instead of me saying

1695
01:38:17,439 --> 01:38:19,519
Speaker 1: where's their tension in the libertarian movement, to me, this

1696
01:38:19,720 --> 01:38:22,000
Speaker 1: is right there right Like you are who you are?

1697
01:38:22,600 --> 01:38:25,200
Speaker 1: Should you because of just how you were born, you

1698
01:38:25,280 --> 01:38:28,200
Speaker 1: were born with something, you automatically get charged more for

1699
01:38:28,320 --> 01:38:31,320
Speaker 1: something versus if you weren't born without it. You don't

1700
01:38:31,479 --> 01:38:33,360
Speaker 1: like that seems unfair?

1701
01:38:34,200 --> 01:38:35,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think there are a couple of things

1702
01:38:36,200 --> 01:38:40,759
Speaker 2: going on there. One is, you know, we do allow

1703
01:38:40,800 --> 01:38:44,360
Speaker 2: that in other markets. So just for example auto insurance,

1704
01:38:45,960 --> 01:38:49,640
Speaker 2: auto insurance rates are set to reflect a lot of

1705
01:38:49,880 --> 01:38:53,160
Speaker 2: things about you, including your demographics, including where you live.

1706
01:38:54,400 --> 01:38:57,440
Speaker 1: And you're trying to behavior it's that's still behavioral.

1707
01:38:58,400 --> 01:39:02,160
Speaker 2: It is behavioral, but behavioral is often closely connected to demographics,

1708
01:39:02,240 --> 01:39:04,200
Speaker 2: right like men pay more for car insurance and women,

1709
01:39:04,280 --> 01:39:07,840
Speaker 2: for example, across the board. So I think that there's

1710
01:39:07,920 --> 01:39:11,479
Speaker 2: not as much daylight between the way that auto insurance

1711
01:39:11,520 --> 01:39:13,439
Speaker 2: functions and the way that health insurance could function as

1712
01:39:13,600 --> 01:39:17,599
Speaker 2: some people would like to suggest. But also I think,

1713
01:39:19,920 --> 01:39:24,360
Speaker 2: you know, we live in a time of incredibly complex

1714
01:39:24,520 --> 01:39:29,760
Speaker 2: and interesting financial instruments to deal with risk, and none

1715
01:39:29,840 --> 01:39:32,919
Speaker 2: of those instruments have been allowed to blossom.

1716
01:39:33,880 --> 01:39:39,120
Speaker 4: Do experiments like exaction I do that on are in

1717
01:39:39,280 --> 01:39:43,560
Speaker 4: order to mitigate the high price of covering somebody with

1718
01:39:43,600 --> 01:39:45,040
Speaker 4: a pre existing condition.

1719
01:39:45,439 --> 01:39:48,320
Speaker 2: Right, So I mean, I think at the very very baseline,

1720
01:39:48,400 --> 01:39:52,400
Speaker 2: we have the fact that you know, what we used

1721
01:39:52,400 --> 01:39:54,840
Speaker 2: to call catastrophic plans are more or less illegal now

1722
01:39:54,880 --> 01:39:57,240
Speaker 2: it's not quite true. There's a bunch of short.

1723
01:39:57,080 --> 01:40:01,160
Speaker 1: Term My wife loves to hurt parents are both deceased,

1724
01:40:02,080 --> 01:40:06,080
Speaker 1: died of can't had cancer policies, which is no longer right,

1725
01:40:06,200 --> 01:40:08,840
Speaker 1: They just they bought them early and thank goodness, it

1726
01:40:08,920 --> 01:40:11,479
Speaker 1: saved their family a bunch of money. But you can't

1727
01:40:11,520 --> 01:40:13,639
Speaker 1: buy a cancer policy anymore. Right.

1728
01:40:13,840 --> 01:40:18,559
Speaker 2: So that's one example of just you know, there are

1729
01:40:18,600 --> 01:40:20,840
Speaker 2: all you know, long term care insurance functions this way

1730
01:40:20,840 --> 01:40:23,599
Speaker 2: as well, the younger you buy life insurance functions this way.

1731
01:40:24,560 --> 01:40:28,880
Speaker 2: There are so many tools you can imagine where people could,

1732
01:40:30,360 --> 01:40:33,439
Speaker 2: in anticipation of various risks that they might that they

1733
01:40:33,520 --> 01:40:37,720
Speaker 2: might have, get insurance against those risks that are the

1734
01:40:37,800 --> 01:40:41,200
Speaker 2: prices will still reflect the relative risk, but you can

1735
01:40:41,320 --> 01:40:44,160
Speaker 2: build a policy where the risk reward works for both

1736
01:40:44,240 --> 01:40:47,080
Speaker 2: the insurance company and the consumer. And I think the

1737
01:40:47,120 --> 01:40:49,640
Speaker 2: fact that we are asking health insurance to also be

1738
01:40:50,560 --> 01:40:54,240
Speaker 2: basically a pre pay system for basic health care further

1739
01:40:54,320 --> 01:40:56,600
Speaker 2: complicates things. Right, there's no reason why you and I

1740
01:40:56,720 --> 01:41:00,280
Speaker 2: shouldn't just be paying out of pocket for basic health care.

1741
01:41:00,800 --> 01:41:02,360
Speaker 2: You know, you get in your infection, you should go

1742
01:41:02,439 --> 01:41:04,680
Speaker 2: to the doctor and pay the full price of that

1743
01:41:05,000 --> 01:41:07,439
Speaker 2: visit and call it good. And your insurance company shouldn't

1744
01:41:07,439 --> 01:41:08,360
Speaker 2: be involved in all that stuff.

1745
01:41:08,400 --> 01:41:10,640
Speaker 1: But you're describing as homeowners insurance, right, a lot of

1746
01:41:11,200 --> 01:41:12,479
Speaker 1: insurance decisions, right, So.

1747
01:41:12,520 --> 01:41:14,479
Speaker 2: I think like just the fact that in this conversation

1748
01:41:14,640 --> 01:41:17,400
Speaker 2: you and I have just named like forty different kinds

1749
01:41:17,439 --> 01:41:19,479
Speaker 2: of insurance, and they all are different shapes and they're

1750
01:41:19,479 --> 01:41:21,400
Speaker 2: all different sizes. There's just no reason to think we

1751
01:41:21,479 --> 01:41:22,400
Speaker 2: can't do that with help.

1752
01:41:22,600 --> 01:41:24,519
Speaker 1: I guess I go back on health. The problem is

1753
01:41:24,600 --> 01:41:26,880
Speaker 1: that there's some people who are risks simply because they

1754
01:41:26,920 --> 01:41:30,120
Speaker 1: were born. And that does feel like if you're born

1755
01:41:30,200 --> 01:41:34,559
Speaker 1: with inalienable rights, right, you know that that where every

1756
01:41:34,760 --> 01:41:37,200
Speaker 1: every other type of insurance we've talked about is somewhat

1757
01:41:37,240 --> 01:41:38,280
Speaker 1: behavioral triggered.

1758
01:41:38,840 --> 01:41:40,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, and I think you know, there there are

1759
01:41:40,800 --> 01:41:44,160
Speaker 2: certainly people who are just born with disabilities or with

1760
01:41:44,360 --> 01:41:48,400
Speaker 2: extremely high risk for certain traits or conditions, and they're

1761
01:41:48,439 --> 01:41:52,280
Speaker 2: gonna they're gonna be really hard to ensure. I think

1762
01:41:52,280 --> 01:41:54,080
Speaker 2: I can give you the science fiction answer and I

1763
01:41:54,120 --> 01:41:55,920
Speaker 2: can give you the real life answer. So the science

1764
01:41:55,960 --> 01:42:00,960
Speaker 2: fiction answer is, let's say I'm a carrier for genetic illness.

1765
01:42:01,680 --> 01:42:04,200
Speaker 2: I should be able to buy insurance for my unborn

1766
01:42:04,320 --> 01:42:07,400
Speaker 2: children before they're born, when it's only a one and

1767
01:42:07,479 --> 01:42:10,240
Speaker 2: four odd that they'll have it, maybe instead of when

1768
01:42:10,240 --> 01:42:12,519
Speaker 2: they're already born. I don't know, I'm just making it up,

1769
01:42:12,600 --> 01:42:17,040
Speaker 2: but like insurance could be more complex and more and

1770
01:42:17,160 --> 01:42:20,639
Speaker 2: take into account even more of the probabilities of life

1771
01:42:20,800 --> 01:42:23,160
Speaker 2: if you could, if the market were truly open, I

1772
01:42:23,200 --> 01:42:25,160
Speaker 2: would bet you know, if I was a betting man,

1773
01:42:25,560 --> 01:42:27,559
Speaker 2: I might say, Okay, you're a carryerver disease. You're going

1774
01:42:27,600 --> 01:42:29,639
Speaker 2: to do various things to mitigate your risk, but ill sure,

1775
01:42:29,640 --> 01:42:32,439
Speaker 2: I'll take an internance policy out on your kid. On

1776
01:42:32,479 --> 01:42:35,000
Speaker 2: the flip side, I also think like this is again

1777
01:42:35,280 --> 01:42:39,519
Speaker 2: the role for charity or even potentially government subsidies if

1778
01:42:39,600 --> 01:42:45,040
Speaker 2: we can meaningfully circumscribe those people who you are talking about,

1779
01:42:45,080 --> 01:42:49,439
Speaker 2: those people who truly through you know, extreme circumstances and

1780
01:42:49,520 --> 01:42:51,439
Speaker 2: no fault of their own, simply are not eligible to

1781
01:42:51,479 --> 01:42:55,400
Speaker 2: be to participants in this market. Okay, charity exists, and

1782
01:42:56,040 --> 01:42:59,360
Speaker 2: you know, simple kind of straightforward block rants or cash

1783
01:42:59,360 --> 01:43:03,640
Speaker 2: shubsities do exist. I think most libertarians and most pro

1784
01:43:03,760 --> 01:43:06,639
Speaker 2: market types would say there's space for that in the world.

1785
01:43:07,760 --> 01:43:11,040
Speaker 2: There's no reason though, because of those people who we

1786
01:43:11,160 --> 01:43:14,120
Speaker 2: do want to protect that you and I should be

1787
01:43:14,240 --> 01:43:17,720
Speaker 2: part of any of this system, like us participating in

1788
01:43:17,800 --> 01:43:20,559
Speaker 2: this system to somehow protect those people is not working.

1789
01:43:20,760 --> 01:43:24,320
Speaker 2: Those people are not well protected, and it's making us miserable.

1790
01:43:26,560 --> 01:43:29,200
Speaker 1: Well, look, I guess there's a part of me that

1791
01:43:29,280 --> 01:43:33,160
Speaker 1: thinks that, you know, you could get a directionally libertarian

1792
01:43:33,240 --> 01:43:36,280
Speaker 1: person to represent eighty percent of what you believe in

1793
01:43:36,400 --> 01:43:39,000
Speaker 1: like and then telling you I ain't touch, ain't touch

1794
01:43:39,040 --> 01:43:41,920
Speaker 1: in healthcare. That's a different situation there.

1795
01:43:42,040 --> 01:43:43,479
Speaker 2: And there are a bunch of people who identify as

1796
01:43:43,520 --> 01:43:45,920
Speaker 2: libertarians who would probably say that, And you know what,

1797
01:43:46,479 --> 01:43:48,759
Speaker 2: I welcome them. They're welcome to use the word liberty.

1798
01:43:48,840 --> 01:43:51,080
Speaker 1: What you're saying is that your your eighty percent friend

1799
01:43:51,160 --> 01:43:52,400
Speaker 1: is not your one hundred percent enemy.

1800
01:43:52,920 --> 01:43:56,760
Speaker 2: It's so true, and that like tattoo it on our

1801
01:43:56,800 --> 01:43:57,799
Speaker 2: foreheads man.

1802
01:43:58,120 --> 01:44:02,240
Speaker 1: Like that means to be you know, the Bill of

1803
01:44:02,320 --> 01:44:03,840
Speaker 1: Rights was a compromise.

1804
01:44:04,840 --> 01:44:05,880
Speaker 2: And so is everything else.

1805
01:44:06,400 --> 01:44:08,519
Speaker 1: Right, let me get you out of here on this.

1806
01:44:08,800 --> 01:44:13,040
Speaker 1: The prediction markets, which is the ultimate in some ways, right,

1807
01:44:13,680 --> 01:44:17,040
Speaker 1: maybe this is the you know, a good way for

1808
01:44:17,200 --> 01:44:21,040
Speaker 1: some of these betheadging and sort of libertarian basically to

1809
01:44:21,240 --> 01:44:26,240
Speaker 1: play out some libertarian policy ideas. But prediction markets need

1810
01:44:26,360 --> 01:44:29,000
Speaker 1: to be trusted, right, and you need to know they're

1811
01:44:29,000 --> 01:44:31,000
Speaker 1: not being gained, or if they're going to be gained,

1812
01:44:31,560 --> 01:44:35,000
Speaker 1: that the bad actors are caught. That takes some regulation,

1813
01:44:35,800 --> 01:44:38,120
Speaker 1: like this is not a market that self regulates, and

1814
01:44:38,680 --> 01:44:43,120
Speaker 1: I don't think yet maybe it will. I just you know,

1815
01:44:43,479 --> 01:44:47,080
Speaker 1: right now, it feels my concern of the prediction markets

1816
01:44:47,160 --> 01:44:49,240
Speaker 1: are for the things where you know somebody has the

1817
01:44:49,320 --> 01:44:52,320
Speaker 1: answer and if it leaks at like you know, the

1818
01:44:52,400 --> 01:44:55,320
Speaker 1: Nobel Peace Prize is the perfect was the perfect example

1819
01:44:55,360 --> 01:44:58,640
Speaker 1: of that or what I know took place. I'm like

1820
01:44:58,800 --> 01:45:02,840
Speaker 1: ninety percent confident place when Peter Navarro gained the jobs

1821
01:45:02,880 --> 01:45:05,400
Speaker 1: report and then suddenly it was the exact opposite of

1822
01:45:05,439 --> 01:45:07,080
Speaker 1: what he said twenty four hours later, and you're like,

1823
01:45:07,840 --> 01:45:12,880
Speaker 1: somebody made a bunch of money on Calci and so

1824
01:45:15,479 --> 01:45:18,280
Speaker 1: give me how a libertarian would clean up the prediction markets.

1825
01:45:20,280 --> 01:45:23,920
Speaker 2: So I think there's a couple things. Many many years ago,

1826
01:45:24,160 --> 01:45:28,320
Speaker 2: Reason magazine did a cover story with Martha Stewart on it,

1827
01:45:28,720 --> 01:45:31,680
Speaker 2: and the cover line was something like, Saint Martha. You

1828
01:45:31,760 --> 01:45:35,240
Speaker 2: know she didn't do anything wrong. And while Martha Stewart's

1829
01:45:35,360 --> 01:45:40,120
Speaker 2: story is complicated, the piece was basically a defensive insider trading.

1830
01:45:40,520 --> 01:45:46,000
Speaker 2: So the I think the kind of most entertaining or

1831
01:45:46,040 --> 01:45:49,799
Speaker 2: most colorful case I can give you is all markets

1832
01:45:49,840 --> 01:45:53,920
Speaker 2: have insiders, they just have smarter and stupider insiders. And

1833
01:45:55,360 --> 01:46:00,479
Speaker 2: in fact that a market that incentivizes as many as

1834
01:46:00,560 --> 01:46:03,559
Speaker 2: possible to contribute is the most accurate market. Now that's

1835
01:46:03,640 --> 01:46:05,680
Speaker 2: like a little tendentist. It's got a bunch of you know,

1836
01:46:05,720 --> 01:46:09,320
Speaker 2: I understand why that's not going to like it's apt

1837
01:46:09,320 --> 01:46:11,040
Speaker 2: to find the cruct right and and in fact, like

1838
01:46:12,120 --> 01:46:14,800
Speaker 2: in a market where you have the understanding that this

1839
01:46:15,000 --> 01:46:18,360
Speaker 2: type of thing is occurring, you know, a little spike

1840
01:46:18,400 --> 01:46:20,599
Speaker 2: here looks different, a little fall here looks different if

1841
01:46:20,640 --> 01:46:23,519
Speaker 2: you understand, like, is that is that little spike? Peter

1842
01:46:23,600 --> 01:46:26,240
Speaker 2: tomorrow is like a question you could be asking yourself

1843
01:46:26,360 --> 01:46:30,600
Speaker 2: or his friends or his family whoever. I think we

1844
01:46:30,720 --> 01:46:33,680
Speaker 2: do already have an intuitive understanding that smaller markets are

1845
01:46:34,000 --> 01:46:38,400
Speaker 2: are more subject to gaming. Right, so the fewer participants

1846
01:46:38,439 --> 01:46:40,760
Speaker 2: in the market, the less the less resilient it will be,

1847
01:46:40,920 --> 01:46:45,200
Speaker 2: and the less likely we are too, you know, to

1848
01:46:45,520 --> 01:46:49,240
Speaker 2: uh to catch kind of anomalies before someone someone profits

1849
01:46:49,280 --> 01:46:55,599
Speaker 2: on them. You know, I think almost all libertarians, myself included,

1850
01:46:55,640 --> 01:46:59,920
Speaker 2: would say fraud is something one of the very few

1851
01:47:00,120 --> 01:47:03,000
Speaker 2: things that we agree the state should prevent. And so

1852
01:47:03,760 --> 01:47:06,800
Speaker 2: I think so often in cases where you know, what

1853
01:47:06,920 --> 01:47:10,400
Speaker 2: we see are kind of you know, inappropriate behavior in

1854
01:47:10,439 --> 01:47:12,559
Speaker 2: those type of markets, it's a violation of the terms

1855
01:47:12,600 --> 01:47:15,720
Speaker 2: of service, or someone has misrepresented themselves, or there is

1856
01:47:15,840 --> 01:47:20,160
Speaker 2: in fact fraud occurring, and fraud should be illegal. So

1857
01:47:20,320 --> 01:47:22,680
Speaker 2: I do also think there is there is a case for, like,

1858
01:47:22,920 --> 01:47:25,360
Speaker 2: some of this is going to be worked out through

1859
01:47:25,520 --> 01:47:28,400
Speaker 2: the courts, through tourts, through kind of it's going to

1860
01:47:28,439 --> 01:47:31,200
Speaker 2: take a while, and you're right that, you know, many

1861
01:47:31,240 --> 01:47:33,519
Speaker 2: people are impatient for that process to play out, And

1862
01:47:34,120 --> 01:47:36,800
Speaker 2: as in so many cases, people often want a short

1863
01:47:36,880 --> 01:47:41,160
Speaker 2: circuit kind of evolutionary processes with regulation. We already know

1864
01:47:41,200 --> 01:47:42,920
Speaker 2: what the rules should be. Let's just make them and

1865
01:47:43,040 --> 01:47:46,439
Speaker 2: announce them. That goes wrong so often, and I think,

1866
01:47:46,640 --> 01:47:49,280
Speaker 2: especially with fledgling markets that can have so much power

1867
01:47:49,400 --> 01:47:51,800
Speaker 2: to be useful tools, I'm hesitant to just slap a

1868
01:47:51,840 --> 01:47:54,240
Speaker 2: regulation on it and say good now, this market is stable.

1869
01:47:54,840 --> 01:47:59,519
Speaker 1: No, I mean, I've look I look at the first

1870
01:47:59,560 --> 01:48:03,080
Speaker 1: of all, I don't understand why we call Calshie a

1871
01:48:03,120 --> 01:48:06,640
Speaker 1: prediction market, but FanDuel of sports book it's also a

1872
01:48:06,760 --> 01:48:07,479
Speaker 1: prediction market.

1873
01:48:07,560 --> 01:48:08,360
Speaker 2: But that's need it is.

1874
01:48:09,160 --> 01:48:11,800
Speaker 1: I don't think there is a difference between the two, which,

1875
01:48:11,840 --> 01:48:14,160
Speaker 1: of course, but everybody's trying to have one.

1876
01:48:14,960 --> 01:48:15,439
Speaker 2: But I.

1877
01:48:17,439 --> 01:48:23,960
Speaker 1: I have I think that the by adding more people

1878
01:48:24,040 --> 01:48:26,280
Speaker 1: to the system, we have found out who the people

1879
01:48:26,360 --> 01:48:29,680
Speaker 1: are that are cheating on the individual sports right the

1880
01:48:30,080 --> 01:48:33,760
Speaker 1: you know who's Now the question is whether and I

1881
01:48:33,920 --> 01:48:36,840
Speaker 1: think that this will be a market. This should be

1882
01:48:36,920 --> 01:48:40,640
Speaker 1: the If I were FanDuel, I might not want to

1883
01:48:40,720 --> 01:48:44,559
Speaker 1: do player props because they can get gained, because they

1884
01:48:44,640 --> 01:48:47,920
Speaker 1: can get manipulated. And so it to me, instead of

1885
01:48:47,960 --> 01:48:50,680
Speaker 1: being told to not do them, you know, you just

1886
01:48:50,720 --> 01:48:53,320
Speaker 1: would have. You know you're going to have better, You're

1887
01:48:53,320 --> 01:48:55,280
Speaker 1: going to be more trusted if you don't offer.

1888
01:48:55,120 --> 01:48:59,479
Speaker 2: Them reputational mechanisms right right, Yeah, yeah, And I think

1889
01:48:59,479 --> 01:49:01,720
Speaker 2: people would want people to trust your brand. And you

1890
01:49:01,760 --> 01:49:06,720
Speaker 2: know this is you know, previously in trade had you

1891
01:49:06,760 --> 01:49:09,360
Speaker 2: know a lot of these same questions and controversies around it.

1892
01:49:11,360 --> 01:49:17,519
Speaker 2: And I think, you know, easily gameable markets or bets

1893
01:49:18,960 --> 01:49:21,080
Speaker 2: or hurt your reputation as a company. And it doesn't

1894
01:49:21,080 --> 01:49:23,360
Speaker 2: happen instantly. People are going to lose money. People are

1895
01:49:23,360 --> 01:49:26,200
Speaker 2: going to make money for sure. So if your goal

1896
01:49:26,479 --> 01:49:31,880
Speaker 2: is that can't happen even once you know you're going

1897
01:49:31,960 --> 01:49:34,760
Speaker 2: to have a very heavy regulatory hand. But I think,

1898
01:49:35,760 --> 01:49:37,880
Speaker 2: I think that's not the way if we want again,

1899
01:49:38,560 --> 01:49:40,960
Speaker 2: you know, libertarians were very early and kind of pro

1900
01:49:41,080 --> 01:49:44,240
Speaker 2: market types in general. We're very early and saying we

1901
01:49:44,320 --> 01:49:49,960
Speaker 2: are underutilizing prediction markets in all areas of life, and

1902
01:49:50,120 --> 01:49:52,880
Speaker 2: that's turned out to be true. There there are tons

1903
01:49:52,960 --> 01:49:55,479
Speaker 2: of places in life where we are now using what

1904
01:49:55,600 --> 01:50:00,120
Speaker 2: are functionally little micro prediction markets or betting markets to

1905
01:50:00,200 --> 01:50:05,040
Speaker 2: help us figure out how to do things. And to

1906
01:50:05,200 --> 01:50:10,440
Speaker 2: cut that off because some of the markets are inappropriately

1907
01:50:10,479 --> 01:50:13,040
Speaker 2: structured or gamable, doesn't doesn't seem like the right trade

1908
01:50:13,040 --> 01:50:13,400
Speaker 2: off to me.

1909
01:50:15,960 --> 01:50:18,639
Speaker 1: What's the best place to judge whether libertarians are having

1910
01:50:18,640 --> 01:50:20,960
Speaker 1: a moment at the ballot box this year? What are

1911
01:50:20,960 --> 01:50:23,400
Speaker 1: the races that we should be following from a libertarian lens.

1912
01:50:23,800 --> 01:50:24,200
Speaker 3: I don't know.

1913
01:50:24,920 --> 01:50:27,320
Speaker 2: I can't It might be too sad to even think

1914
01:50:27,360 --> 01:50:29,479
Speaker 2: about this. No, I mean, obviously I would like to

1915
01:50:29,560 --> 01:50:32,600
Speaker 2: see some of the folks that I named in the

1916
01:50:33,000 --> 01:50:36,760
Speaker 2: Times article re elected at the very least. You know,

1917
01:50:36,800 --> 01:50:39,200
Speaker 2: we have a pretty short list. But you know, the

1918
01:50:39,520 --> 01:50:42,559
Speaker 2: gentleman from Kentucky I mentioned, Jared paul Is, You're quite

1919
01:50:42,640 --> 01:50:44,200
Speaker 2: right if he's up down.

1920
01:50:44,520 --> 01:50:44,840
Speaker 4: But the.

1921
01:50:46,600 --> 01:50:49,840
Speaker 2: You know, there are there are some folks that are

1922
01:50:49,840 --> 01:50:51,840
Speaker 2: already on the way out run Widen. You know we've

1923
01:50:51,920 --> 01:50:54,879
Speaker 2: got you know, the the already small numbers are even smaller.

1924
01:50:57,840 --> 01:51:01,040
Speaker 2: Like I say, I'm a little obsessed with Arizona because

1925
01:51:01,080 --> 01:51:03,040
Speaker 2: Arizona does seem to kick out.

1926
01:51:03,720 --> 01:51:05,640
Speaker 1: It's always been a liberty I mean, you know.

1927
01:51:07,280 --> 01:51:09,559
Speaker 2: I think is what I would say, like little well,

1928
01:51:09,600 --> 01:51:10,200
Speaker 2: you know it all.

1929
01:51:10,360 --> 01:51:12,560
Speaker 1: Like for me, my first taste of the crazy of

1930
01:51:12,600 --> 01:51:16,680
Speaker 1: Arizona was was Evan Meekham. I don't know if you

1931
01:51:16,800 --> 01:51:18,960
Speaker 1: know that story as a governor.

1932
01:51:19,479 --> 01:51:21,120
Speaker 2: Tell me the story of Mekham.

1933
01:51:21,000 --> 01:51:22,560
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, he was sort of this wack a

1934
01:51:22,600 --> 01:51:24,439
Speaker 1: doodle governor that got elected in a sort of a

1935
01:51:24,520 --> 01:51:27,200
Speaker 1: weird three way race, and they ended up having to

1936
01:51:27,240 --> 01:51:29,960
Speaker 1: impeach him. But the point was that he It was

1937
01:51:30,200 --> 01:51:33,439
Speaker 1: just Arizona has always been home to sort of a

1938
01:51:33,520 --> 01:51:37,280
Speaker 1: lot of different quirky politics and left right and center

1939
01:51:37,960 --> 01:51:40,080
Speaker 1: more on the right, and there's always been this, you know,

1940
01:51:40,120 --> 01:51:43,439
Speaker 1: it's almost been a coalition of conservatives with these weird

1941
01:51:43,600 --> 01:51:46,640
Speaker 1: strains to them. You know, there's been You've had some

1942
01:51:46,760 --> 01:51:49,880
Speaker 1: religious based strains, You've had some sort of libertarian based strains,

1943
01:51:49,880 --> 01:51:52,360
Speaker 1: You've had sort of whatever you would call McCaine, right,

1944
01:51:52,600 --> 01:51:55,479
Speaker 1: it was sort of he was his own ideology, right.

1945
01:51:55,560 --> 01:51:57,760
Speaker 2: That was just as I wouldn't dare put a label on.

1946
01:51:58,160 --> 01:52:01,120
Speaker 2: So you can't I chantily McCain either, But I.

1947
01:52:01,160 --> 01:52:03,639
Speaker 1: Can't either because I can. You know, there's some things

1948
01:52:03,680 --> 01:52:05,360
Speaker 1: he was a libertarian on. There were some things he

1949
01:52:05,520 --> 01:52:07,120
Speaker 1: was you know, pro governor, you know what I mean.

1950
01:52:07,200 --> 01:52:10,400
Speaker 1: So it on American national security, he couldn't have been

1951
01:52:10,479 --> 01:52:14,920
Speaker 1: less libertarian, right, So, but I think on domestic policy

1952
01:52:15,000 --> 01:52:16,240
Speaker 1: he would have been very at home.

1953
01:52:16,920 --> 01:52:20,720
Speaker 2: YEA with what I would say, my my, this is

1954
01:52:20,760 --> 01:52:24,600
Speaker 2: not my nit right to pick Arizona's level answer, but

1955
01:52:24,800 --> 01:52:28,479
Speaker 2: as a macro answer, if it's gonna if a new

1956
01:52:28,600 --> 01:52:32,360
Speaker 2: kind of libertarianism that could be electoral electorally successful is

1957
01:52:32,400 --> 01:52:35,120
Speaker 2: going to come from anywhere, It kind of seems like

1958
01:52:35,160 --> 01:52:37,160
Speaker 2: it has to come out of whatever has been thrown.

1959
01:52:37,160 --> 01:52:40,200
Speaker 2: And you know, your christon cinemas, You're like, there's a bunch.

1960
01:52:39,960 --> 01:52:43,160
Speaker 1: Of the West is filled with him. Yes, I feel it.

1961
01:52:43,360 --> 01:52:46,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am interested in and keeping an eye on.

1962
01:52:46,920 --> 01:52:49,120
Speaker 2: But I wouldn't I'm not sure i'd go so far

1963
01:52:49,160 --> 01:52:50,280
Speaker 2: as to use the word optimism.

1964
01:52:50,760 --> 01:52:53,080
Speaker 1: Yeah. I look at a guy like Dave Schweikert and

1965
01:52:53,280 --> 01:52:57,400
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly right from Arizona, who both sort of aren't

1966
01:52:57,800 --> 01:53:04,439
Speaker 1: conventional trumpy or inventional liberal who you know, and maybe,

1967
01:53:04,560 --> 01:53:06,920
Speaker 1: but I you're not wrong to look at Arizona. That

1968
01:53:07,040 --> 01:53:12,559
Speaker 1: feels like an interesting laboratory. I don't know what else

1969
01:53:12,600 --> 01:53:14,400
Speaker 1: to do. I mean, you know, I think it's because

1970
01:53:14,439 --> 01:53:17,160
Speaker 1: the sun fries people's brains there differently than it fries

1971
01:53:17,200 --> 01:53:19,479
Speaker 1: our brains to a delicious crisp if you know what

1972
01:53:19,560 --> 01:53:23,920
Speaker 1: I mean. I think I do. I think I think

1973
01:53:24,040 --> 01:53:27,800
Speaker 1: the biggest cryogenic labs are storage units are in Arizona. Right,

1974
01:53:27,880 --> 01:53:29,760
Speaker 1: isn't that where Ted Williams's head is at. I don't know.

1975
01:53:30,000 --> 01:53:32,519
Speaker 2: I think maybe things didn't work out for Ted Williams's

1976
01:53:32,600 --> 01:53:35,880
Speaker 2: head in the end, unfortunately. But yes, but that's the

1977
01:53:36,000 --> 01:53:37,360
Speaker 2: kind of thing that you do see out there, and

1978
01:53:37,880 --> 01:53:45,560
Speaker 2: that is it is also kind of adjacent to you know,

1979
01:53:45,880 --> 01:53:48,960
Speaker 2: it's it's the kind of futurism of those type of

1980
01:53:49,040 --> 01:53:52,360
Speaker 2: you know, it is both the sage sagebrush libertarians and

1981
01:53:52,439 --> 01:53:54,599
Speaker 2: the kind of future oft libertarians tend to meet right

1982
01:53:54,640 --> 01:53:58,200
Speaker 2: along that seam and and the folks that just kind

1983
01:53:58,240 --> 01:53:59,519
Speaker 2: of want to be left.

1984
01:53:59,920 --> 01:54:02,840
Speaker 1: The state the only the only state to defeat a

1985
01:54:03,080 --> 01:54:04,280
Speaker 1: ban on same sex marriage.

1986
01:54:06,040 --> 01:54:07,360
Speaker 2: I don't know, but that sounds true.

1987
01:54:07,640 --> 01:54:09,639
Speaker 1: I think that's right, if I'm not mistaken. The point

1988
01:54:09,720 --> 01:54:13,880
Speaker 1: is is that it it is pretty you know, there

1989
01:54:13,960 --> 01:54:16,519
Speaker 1: is there's some real evidence there that both on economic

1990
01:54:16,600 --> 01:54:19,200
Speaker 1: and social that they've you know, sort of there's been

1991
01:54:19,240 --> 01:54:21,200
Speaker 1: this unit. And that's the beauty of Arizona. If you

1992
01:54:21,280 --> 01:54:23,640
Speaker 1: really if you're really pushing the libertarian movement is you've

1993
01:54:23,680 --> 01:54:27,880
Speaker 1: got the ballot referendum process too. You know, you don't

1994
01:54:27,880 --> 01:54:31,400
Speaker 1: need a candidate to institute some libertarian ideas. Sometimes you

1995
01:54:31,520 --> 01:54:33,880
Speaker 1: just need a referendum at the ballot box.

1996
01:54:34,200 --> 01:54:35,720
Speaker 2: That's true. I'm going out in a couple of weeks.

1997
01:54:35,800 --> 01:54:37,720
Speaker 2: So I'll let you know if I see.

1998
01:54:37,760 --> 01:54:40,520
Speaker 1: Any reader, I'll be very.

1999
01:54:41,920 --> 01:54:43,720
Speaker 2: Lurking in the in the landscape.

2000
01:54:44,240 --> 01:54:46,320
Speaker 1: Catherine, this is awesome. I mean, look, I think there's

2001
01:54:46,320 --> 01:54:50,960
Speaker 1: a lot of Here's what's true. There's a growing plurality

2002
01:54:51,000 --> 01:54:55,800
Speaker 1: in America. The plurality of Americans are politically homeless. We

2003
01:54:55,920 --> 01:54:59,480
Speaker 1: see it every day. The numbers show it, right, We're

2004
01:54:59,520 --> 01:55:01,360
Speaker 1: not at a and a third and a third anymore.

2005
01:55:01,800 --> 01:55:04,280
Speaker 1: The Republicans have less than a third, the Democrats have

2006
01:55:04,360 --> 01:55:06,640
Speaker 1: less than a third. There's a whole bunch of people

2007
01:55:06,760 --> 01:55:09,680
Speaker 1: just sort of sitting there in search of something. So

2008
01:55:12,520 --> 01:55:15,040
Speaker 1: let's see what happens. Right, That's all we can do,

2009
01:55:15,640 --> 01:55:17,040
Speaker 1: all right, Catherine, grad to see you.

2010
01:55:17,400 --> 01:55:18,200
Speaker 2: Thanks having me on.

2011
01:55:27,640 --> 01:55:30,240
Speaker 1: All right, let me know when you guys are ready

2012
01:55:30,280 --> 01:55:35,240
Speaker 1: to sign up for a Libertarian primary electorate there right,

2013
01:55:35,440 --> 01:55:38,880
Speaker 1: all right, in all seriousness, would love to sort of

2014
01:55:39,600 --> 01:55:43,240
Speaker 1: hear some of your reactions and responses to our back

2015
01:55:43,280 --> 01:55:47,280
Speaker 1: and forth over what a libertarian would propose when it

2016
01:55:47,360 --> 01:55:52,760
Speaker 1: comes to national health care and whether you politically could

2017
01:55:52,800 --> 01:55:53,600
Speaker 1: sell something like that.

2018
01:55:54,120 --> 01:55:54,440
Speaker 2: All right.

2019
01:55:55,280 --> 01:55:59,080
Speaker 1: First question comes from Kelly X from Aubrey, Texas. Hey, Texas.

2020
01:55:59,200 --> 01:56:03,320
Speaker 1: Big theme this this episode, Kelly Wrights, I was surprised

2021
01:56:03,360 --> 01:56:05,640
Speaker 1: that Trump only briefly mentioned transgender issues in the State

2022
01:56:05,680 --> 01:56:08,160
Speaker 1: of the Union. I expected more culture war focus. Does

2023
01:56:08,240 --> 01:56:10,280
Speaker 1: this signal a shift for Republicans in twenty twenty six

2024
01:56:10,280 --> 01:56:12,880
Speaker 1: stwards emphasizing the economy instead, or do they still lean

2025
01:56:12,960 --> 01:56:15,600
Speaker 1: on issues like transgender rights and religion if race is

2026
01:56:15,680 --> 01:56:19,160
Speaker 1: titan with groups like American Principles Project pledging millions and

2027
01:56:19,240 --> 01:56:22,360
Speaker 1: influencers building their brands around anti trans rhetoric, and where

2028
01:56:22,440 --> 01:56:25,560
Speaker 1: these topics aren't going away. Thanks for all you do. Look,

2029
01:56:25,640 --> 01:56:30,360
Speaker 1: I think I think the trans issue is going to

2030
01:56:30,480 --> 01:56:34,640
Speaker 1: continue to be on the upper end of issues that

2031
01:56:34,800 --> 01:56:37,920
Speaker 1: Republicans use in these campaigns. Particularly I brought up main

2032
01:56:38,000 --> 01:56:42,840
Speaker 1: earlier in the In this episode, I think the I

2033
01:56:43,000 --> 01:56:45,640
Speaker 1: think that if it is Janet Mills and Susan Collins,

2034
01:56:45,680 --> 01:56:48,000
Speaker 1: and it may very well not be Janet Mills and

2035
01:56:48,000 --> 01:56:53,520
Speaker 1: Susan Collins, that you will see Republicans try to make

2036
01:56:53,800 --> 01:56:57,200
Speaker 1: Mills's back and forth with the President over trans issues

2037
01:56:58,080 --> 01:57:02,200
Speaker 1: a bigger issue. I do think you're right that it

2038
01:57:02,520 --> 01:57:05,600
Speaker 1: can be distracting from economic issues, these culture issues all

2039
01:57:05,640 --> 01:57:08,520
Speaker 1: depending on what it is. But you know this is

2040
01:57:08,560 --> 01:57:11,560
Speaker 1: what when you're behind, you know, when when the when

2041
01:57:11,600 --> 01:57:13,960
Speaker 1: the economic story is not a good one for your party,

2042
01:57:14,400 --> 01:57:17,080
Speaker 1: you look for a cultural issue to try to to

2043
01:57:17,200 --> 01:57:20,600
Speaker 1: try to sort of get in the way. So that's

2044
01:57:20,680 --> 01:57:24,600
Speaker 1: where I suspect this gets used and really more on

2045
01:57:24,760 --> 01:57:28,000
Speaker 1: the on the children, on the on the on the

2046
01:57:28,200 --> 01:57:31,320
Speaker 1: under eighteen side of this issue. Like I don't think

2047
01:57:31,320 --> 01:57:34,480
Speaker 1: I think it'll be less on the women's sports angle

2048
01:57:34,560 --> 01:57:36,400
Speaker 1: that we saw a lot of in twenty twenty four.

2049
01:57:36,880 --> 01:57:38,920
Speaker 1: I think it's more now that you've seen many of

2050
01:57:38,960 --> 01:57:42,240
Speaker 1: these medical groups start to back off and recommending any

2051
01:57:42,280 --> 01:57:48,320
Speaker 1: of these surgeries before before before folks turn eighteen. That's

2052
01:57:49,160 --> 01:57:52,280
Speaker 1: because when you pull that that that gets closer to

2053
01:57:52,400 --> 01:57:54,880
Speaker 1: being a sixty five to thirty five issue where there's

2054
01:57:55,080 --> 01:57:58,520
Speaker 1: there's there's a lot of folks who I think would

2055
01:57:58,560 --> 01:58:03,560
Speaker 1: be pro per coection of trans rights for adults who

2056
01:58:03,640 --> 01:58:10,600
Speaker 1: are not ready to support using taxpayer dollars and for

2057
01:58:10,680 --> 01:58:13,920
Speaker 1: the idea of having these surgeries for minors. So I

2058
01:58:14,040 --> 01:58:19,720
Speaker 1: think that that's the line politically that I think Republicans

2059
01:58:19,800 --> 01:58:22,400
Speaker 1: believe that they can sort of win, get it to

2060
01:58:22,640 --> 01:58:25,640
Speaker 1: seventy thirty sixty five thirty five split on these issues.

2061
01:58:25,680 --> 01:58:27,880
Speaker 1: When you make it about that, when you make it

2062
01:58:28,880 --> 01:58:32,640
Speaker 1: about individual rights and libert that's where I think it's

2063
01:58:32,760 --> 01:58:37,760
Speaker 1: less where sort of the libertarian in the libertarian in

2064
01:58:37,920 --> 01:58:40,520
Speaker 1: both the right and the left feels like, hey live

2065
01:58:40,560 --> 01:58:43,520
Speaker 1: and let live when it comes to adults, right, So

2066
01:58:43,600 --> 01:58:45,360
Speaker 1: I suspect when it gets used it's going to be

2067
01:58:45,440 --> 01:58:51,120
Speaker 1: on the issue of minors. Next question comes from anonymous.

2068
01:58:51,400 --> 01:58:55,000
Speaker 1: So I'm just going to presume it's a senior staffer

2069
01:58:55,880 --> 01:59:00,840
Speaker 1: at the White House. I have kid right, we never

2070
01:59:00,920 --> 01:59:04,839
Speaker 1: know anana's rights. I viewed the speech in three sections.

2071
01:59:05,120 --> 01:59:07,480
Speaker 1: One the me, me me part. I saved our country,

2072
01:59:07,480 --> 01:59:09,200
Speaker 1: I saved the world, et cetera, with a little Biden

2073
01:59:09,240 --> 01:59:11,680
Speaker 1: bashing to the Oprah section you get a medal, and

2074
01:59:11,760 --> 01:59:13,960
Speaker 1: you get a medal, and you get an uncle. And

2075
01:59:14,080 --> 01:59:16,320
Speaker 1: three and the baiten demean the dem section. He stayed

2076
01:59:16,360 --> 01:59:18,760
Speaker 1: on a well rehearsed script, kept a good kept a

2077
01:59:18,800 --> 01:59:22,520
Speaker 1: good news, slash, lies, exaggeration, distortions, didn't address Epstein, Ukraine

2078
01:59:22,640 --> 01:59:24,600
Speaker 1: or Ice, and he used the Dems like a prop

2079
01:59:24,640 --> 01:59:27,160
Speaker 1: I worry about him being under control until the midterms.

2080
01:59:27,200 --> 01:59:31,000
Speaker 1: Bring back crazy Trump. Thanks, that's an interesting, well, look,

2081
01:59:31,080 --> 01:59:35,280
Speaker 1: I think that that I you know, I think in

2082
01:59:35,400 --> 01:59:39,160
Speaker 1: this case, you know, he he is competitive and he

2083
01:59:39,280 --> 01:59:41,960
Speaker 1: doesn't want to lose. And I think if you know,

2084
01:59:43,200 --> 01:59:46,920
Speaker 1: Susie Wilds has a way of getting him into certain places.

2085
01:59:47,000 --> 01:59:49,960
Speaker 1: Jade Vance's also plays this role of trying to get

2086
01:59:50,000 --> 01:59:53,600
Speaker 1: the president in the right mindset because again we know

2087
01:59:53,880 --> 01:59:57,600
Speaker 1: we're dealing with arrested development here where his you know,

2088
01:59:57,720 --> 02:00:00,320
Speaker 1: he can crazy Trump can show up at any time,

2089
02:00:00,840 --> 02:00:04,840
Speaker 1: festivus Trump can sort up at any time. But if

2090
02:00:04,880 --> 02:00:07,840
Speaker 1: you frame it as competitive Trump, all right, this is

2091
02:00:07,880 --> 02:00:10,440
Speaker 1: what they're not going to expect of yous, sir, mister president,

2092
02:00:10,480 --> 02:00:15,360
Speaker 1: et cetera. You know, he can get quasi on message,

2093
02:00:15,560 --> 02:00:20,440
Speaker 1: like but look, Epstein's not going away. And the fact

2094
02:00:20,520 --> 02:00:23,320
Speaker 1: that you have very we now have details where the

2095
02:00:23,440 --> 02:00:26,919
Speaker 1: Justice Department had put out a statement. Yeah it's possible.

2096
02:00:26,960 --> 02:00:29,960
Speaker 1: There's some files that were still don't have We'll find them.

2097
02:00:30,920 --> 02:00:33,440
Speaker 1: And now it's sort of like when you know, when

2098
02:00:33,640 --> 02:00:36,240
Speaker 1: when you have a survivor saying, I know there is

2099
02:00:36,320 --> 02:00:40,120
Speaker 1: a missing FBI file about an allegation that I made

2100
02:00:40,160 --> 02:00:45,440
Speaker 1: against the president, then the minute it's found, it's going

2101
02:00:45,600 --> 02:00:51,640
Speaker 1: to get outside even more outsized attention. So I'm usually

2102
02:00:51,680 --> 02:00:54,800
Speaker 1: a skeptic on government conspiracies in general, because the bureaucracy

2103
02:00:54,880 --> 02:00:56,680
Speaker 1: works in such a way that it's really hard to

2104
02:00:56,920 --> 02:01:01,560
Speaker 1: keep make a conspiracy stick. But I will say if

2105
02:01:01,600 --> 02:01:04,400
Speaker 1: somebody thought, hey, they're better off see if they could

2106
02:01:04,440 --> 02:01:07,240
Speaker 1: avoid releasing some of the worst stuff that mentioned Trump.

2107
02:01:07,280 --> 02:01:10,320
Speaker 1: And remember, these are FBI three H two's that are

2108
02:01:10,520 --> 02:01:15,360
Speaker 1: just allegations. They're not necessarily proven allegations, which is what

2109
02:01:15,560 --> 02:01:19,240
Speaker 1: makes the entire release of these files so unprecedented and frankly,

2110
02:01:19,280 --> 02:01:22,360
Speaker 1: so uncomfortable for so many members of the Department of Justice.

2111
02:01:22,440 --> 02:01:25,080
Speaker 1: This is this is you know, many of you may think, hey,

2112
02:01:25,160 --> 02:01:28,120
Speaker 1: these all these men and women are involved in Epstein,

2113
02:01:28,160 --> 02:01:30,520
Speaker 1: deserve to be shamed. I hear you. But there is

2114
02:01:30,600 --> 02:01:34,760
Speaker 1: sort of there, there is a discomfort. I think with

2115
02:01:34,880 --> 02:01:36,840
Speaker 1: some of these projects. You're like, wait a minute, these

2116
02:01:36,880 --> 02:01:40,280
Speaker 1: are people that we don't have enough evidence to charge

2117
02:01:40,320 --> 02:01:44,720
Speaker 1: them with a crime, but we're we're gonna We're gonna

2118
02:01:44,720 --> 02:01:50,560
Speaker 1: go ahead and essentially flood the court of public opinion

2119
02:01:50,640 --> 02:01:55,680
Speaker 1: with evidence that people can cherry pick and choose. All

2120
02:01:55,760 --> 02:02:00,200
Speaker 1: that said, the fact that they if you thought you

2121
02:02:00,320 --> 02:02:03,760
Speaker 1: were doing Trump a favor by pulling it out only

2122
02:02:03,840 --> 02:02:05,680
Speaker 1: to get caught, now it's going to get extra attention.

2123
02:02:05,760 --> 02:02:07,920
Speaker 1: It's very likely it would have just been part of

2124
02:02:08,000 --> 02:02:10,640
Speaker 1: the three and a half million files, much harder for

2125
02:02:10,720 --> 02:02:12,480
Speaker 1: it to surface up. Of course, people are going to

2126
02:02:12,520 --> 02:02:18,720
Speaker 1: pay attention it's Trump. So I wouldn't assume that any

2127
02:02:18,720 --> 02:02:20,760
Speaker 1: of the stuff that put it this way, this state

2128
02:02:20,800 --> 02:02:25,920
Speaker 1: of the Union is almost already it's already sort of

2129
02:02:25,960 --> 02:02:28,360
Speaker 1: played itself out. I think we sort of know that

2130
02:02:28,640 --> 02:02:32,800
Speaker 1: it's already it is what it is. Next question comes

2131
02:02:32,840 --> 02:02:35,560
Speaker 1: from Marcus from Europe, and he says longtime listener from

2132
02:02:35,560 --> 02:02:39,200
Speaker 1: Switzerland and Germany. He says, I've always appreciated how you

2133
02:02:39,280 --> 02:02:40,960
Speaker 1: go beyond the surface to explain the inner workings of

2134
02:02:41,040 --> 02:02:43,040
Speaker 1: US politics. One thing I still struggle to understand is

2135
02:02:43,080 --> 02:02:45,960
Speaker 1: when you reference America as well. From my perspective, places

2136
02:02:46,000 --> 02:02:48,960
Speaker 1: like Louisiana don't seem richer than most European countries, and

2137
02:02:49,000 --> 02:02:51,840
Speaker 1: even Californians with high incomes often seem to struggle more

2138
02:02:51,840 --> 02:02:55,000
Speaker 1: than Europe's middle class. Does America's hire GDP really translate

2139
02:02:55,040 --> 02:02:57,280
Speaker 1: to a better standard or living or are the systems

2140
02:02:57,320 --> 02:03:01,640
Speaker 1: too different to compare meaningfully? Greetings from Europe. I think

2141
02:03:01,840 --> 02:03:04,680
Speaker 1: our cultures and somebody you know as aligned as we are.

2142
02:03:05,200 --> 02:03:07,800
Speaker 1: There are some things that were very different on right,

2143
02:03:08,280 --> 02:03:15,800
Speaker 1: Americans like their stuff, right, you know it Europeans the

2144
02:03:15,920 --> 02:03:21,520
Speaker 1: cities are smaller, people are more comfortable living with less things, right,

2145
02:03:21,760 --> 02:03:25,320
Speaker 1: So you know, I've always thought that that's that's actually

2146
02:03:25,640 --> 02:03:29,560
Speaker 1: a difference that we don't you know, we're we want

2147
02:03:29,640 --> 02:03:33,000
Speaker 1: more land because we have the room, right, we want

2148
02:03:33,400 --> 02:03:36,960
Speaker 1: more stuff because we have the room. In Europe and

2149
02:03:37,040 --> 02:03:40,080
Speaker 1: these tighter cities and these you know, people don't have

2150
02:03:40,120 --> 02:03:43,560
Speaker 1: the room. So it's sort of you might make less money,

2151
02:03:43,640 --> 02:03:47,400
Speaker 1: but you may spend less because you don't you just

2152
02:03:47,640 --> 02:03:50,720
Speaker 1: don't have the space to acquire more things. I know

2153
02:03:50,800 --> 02:03:54,400
Speaker 1: that seems like a but I think that's why sometimes

2154
02:03:54,440 --> 02:03:58,400
Speaker 1: there's a disconnect on wealth of the you know, sort

2155
02:03:58,440 --> 02:04:03,600
Speaker 1: of middle class European living in Frankfurt and the middle

2156
02:04:03,640 --> 02:04:07,560
Speaker 1: class American living in Sacramento or something like that. Right,

2157
02:04:07,720 --> 02:04:10,800
Speaker 1: So you know, I think that might have something to

2158
02:04:10,840 --> 02:04:13,320
Speaker 1: do with it. So a little bit is cultural. You know,

2159
02:04:14,000 --> 02:04:17,520
Speaker 1: we're just a culture of bigger houses. Now that may change, right,

2160
02:04:17,680 --> 02:04:20,480
Speaker 1: you may seem you know, it does feel like this

2161
02:04:20,680 --> 02:04:25,320
Speaker 1: gets you know, the boomers saved everything. My wife will say,

2162
02:04:25,480 --> 02:04:27,960
Speaker 1: I'm got hoarding tendencies when you look at all the

2163
02:04:28,000 --> 02:04:30,720
Speaker 1: sports cards that I have acquired. But I I'm you know,

2164
02:04:30,880 --> 02:04:32,560
Speaker 1: we've had dumpsters at the house and we like to

2165
02:04:32,600 --> 02:04:37,000
Speaker 1: get rid of stuff. But gen z and definitely doesn't

2166
02:04:37,040 --> 02:04:41,840
Speaker 1: want to save all this stuff the way our parents

2167
02:04:41,880 --> 02:04:46,080
Speaker 1: and grandparents love to save stuff. So there may be

2168
02:04:46,200 --> 02:04:50,640
Speaker 1: something akin to that as well. So that you know,

2169
02:04:51,000 --> 02:04:54,120
Speaker 1: I think we need an American to do what Detkville

2170
02:04:54,360 --> 02:04:59,680
Speaker 1: did for explaining America to Europeans. Maybe maybe you know

2171
02:04:59,760 --> 02:05:01,560
Speaker 1: my for somebody else needs to go and we need

2172
02:05:01,640 --> 02:05:09,200
Speaker 1: to explain how Europeans live to Americans today a little bit.

2173
02:05:11,920 --> 02:05:14,960
Speaker 1: But appreciate the question, Marcus, thank you, And if you

2174
02:05:15,000 --> 02:05:17,960
Speaker 1: don't like my answer, right back and tell me if

2175
02:05:18,000 --> 02:05:20,160
Speaker 1: I've whiffed on this and you think I got it wrong.

2176
02:05:20,680 --> 02:05:23,240
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Jason Any writes, Hey, thanks for

2177
02:05:23,280 --> 02:05:26,240
Speaker 1: reading my comments last month about the barn. I appreciate it.

2178
02:05:26,280 --> 02:05:28,400
Speaker 1: As I mentioned my prior email, I now live in

2179
02:05:28,440 --> 02:05:30,320
Speaker 1: the Commonwealth, but live for a long time in Florida.

2180
02:05:30,800 --> 02:05:33,839
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Welcome to the club of the Florida

2181
02:05:33,880 --> 02:05:36,600
Speaker 1: to Virginia pipeline. I continue to keep up with the

2182
02:05:36,640 --> 02:05:38,920
Speaker 1: goings on there and can you explain how local governments

2183
02:05:38,920 --> 02:05:40,200
Speaker 1: are supposed to function that they get rid of the

2184
02:05:40,240 --> 02:05:43,400
Speaker 1: property tax. Yes, Jason, I'm glad you brought this up.

2185
02:05:43,440 --> 02:05:46,640
Speaker 1: So there's this idea, and Ronda Santis wants to do it,

2186
02:05:47,280 --> 02:05:52,040
Speaker 1: trying to essentially and this gets it to Donald Trump

2187
02:05:52,200 --> 02:05:54,000
Speaker 1: briefly mentioned it in the State of the Union that

2188
02:05:54,080 --> 02:05:56,200
Speaker 1: he wants to go back to a system that where

2189
02:05:56,240 --> 02:06:00,560
Speaker 1: all of our taxation is tariffs and we stop taxing income. Now.

2190
02:06:01,240 --> 02:06:03,760
Speaker 1: I am happy to do a Toddcast time machine explaining

2191
02:06:03,800 --> 02:06:06,080
Speaker 1: why we ended up with the income tax because tariffs

2192
02:06:06,440 --> 02:06:09,480
Speaker 1: did nothing but put the tax essentially put the tax

2193
02:06:09,520 --> 02:06:12,800
Speaker 1: burden of funding the government on the working class more

2194
02:06:12,920 --> 02:06:16,040
Speaker 1: than it put it on the upper class. Well, Rondo

2195
02:06:16,120 --> 02:06:18,680
Speaker 1: Santis is kind of has the same vision. He says, hey, property,

2196
02:06:19,400 --> 02:06:21,200
Speaker 1: you know, you shouldn't have to pay taxes on it

2197
02:06:21,360 --> 02:06:23,160
Speaker 1: all the time. You should only have to pay taxes

2198
02:06:23,240 --> 02:06:26,440
Speaker 1: on it, you know, once or maybe twice, once when

2199
02:06:26,480 --> 02:06:30,080
Speaker 1: you buy, once when you sell, and that's it. The

2200
02:06:30,200 --> 02:06:32,720
Speaker 1: problem is in a state like Florida, which has no

2201
02:06:32,880 --> 02:06:36,440
Speaker 1: other income tax nor you know, there's only so many

2202
02:06:36,520 --> 02:06:40,640
Speaker 1: ways you can upcharge and add fees to tourists. You know,

2203
02:06:40,760 --> 02:06:42,880
Speaker 1: trust me, if you're not a resident of Florida and

2204
02:06:43,000 --> 02:06:45,960
Speaker 1: you check into a hotel and rent a car, you

2205
02:06:46,040 --> 02:06:50,600
Speaker 1: wouldn't believe all of the fees that you pay in

2206
02:06:50,880 --> 02:06:53,880
Speaker 1: order to subsidize residents that live in the state of

2207
02:06:53,920 --> 02:06:56,760
Speaker 1: Florida in order for them not to ever have a

2208
02:06:56,800 --> 02:07:00,720
Speaker 1: state income tax. I don't see how you pull it off,

2209
02:07:01,640 --> 02:07:05,160
Speaker 1: and you probably only increase income inequality and you will

2210
02:07:05,240 --> 02:07:07,200
Speaker 1: have you know, you take a look at some of

2211
02:07:07,240 --> 02:07:09,600
Speaker 1: these smaller counties. I spend a lot of time in

2212
02:07:10,040 --> 02:07:14,240
Speaker 1: northwest Florida. Scambia County, fairly large county, Santa Rosa County.

2213
02:07:15,640 --> 02:07:19,040
Speaker 1: The largest employers in these counties by the very red counties.

2214
02:07:19,120 --> 02:07:21,600
Speaker 1: The largest employers in these counties are usually the government

2215
02:07:21,920 --> 02:07:26,960
Speaker 1: school system, you know, other government agencies. Well you you know,

2216
02:07:27,160 --> 02:07:31,120
Speaker 1: you're you know, you start messing around with the property

2217
02:07:31,200 --> 02:07:33,360
Speaker 1: tax system and the funding system. Where are they going

2218
02:07:33,400 --> 02:07:35,160
Speaker 1: to get there? Where are they going to get their

2219
02:07:35,160 --> 02:07:37,120
Speaker 1: funds to run their government? And then all of a sudden,

2220
02:07:37,120 --> 02:07:40,880
Speaker 1: you're gonna have whole bunch of unemployed people. I don't

2221
02:07:41,040 --> 02:07:44,440
Speaker 1: think this is going to get as far as DeSantis

2222
02:07:44,560 --> 02:07:47,840
Speaker 1: dreams on this. When it comes to property taxes, he's

2223
02:07:47,880 --> 02:07:49,960
Speaker 1: got to have to put it on a ballot initiative,

2224
02:07:50,080 --> 02:07:53,320
Speaker 1: so it's and it needs to in all ballot initiais

2225
02:07:53,320 --> 02:07:55,000
Speaker 1: in Florida have to get sixty percent, which is a

2226
02:07:55,040 --> 02:07:59,720
Speaker 1: pretty tall order as we've learned. So I don't know

2227
02:07:59,720 --> 02:08:02,280
Speaker 1: how you do it. And I think you know, now,

2228
02:08:03,080 --> 02:08:04,080
Speaker 1: maybe that's the feature.

2229
02:08:04,600 --> 02:08:04,760
Speaker 2: You know.

2230
02:08:05,040 --> 02:08:09,040
Speaker 1: I think Governor DeSantis would say, great, starve the beast, right,

2231
02:08:09,160 --> 02:08:12,360
Speaker 1: this is the starve the beast mindset that is taken over.

2232
02:08:13,160 --> 02:08:15,680
Speaker 1: The thing is is that there's general consensus. As I

2233
02:08:15,760 --> 02:08:18,520
Speaker 1: shared with you in my last episode, seventy percent of

2234
02:08:18,560 --> 02:08:20,800
Speaker 1: the country does not think we should cut services to

2235
02:08:20,840 --> 02:08:25,520
Speaker 1: cut taxes. Right. There is a large majority in this

2236
02:08:25,600 --> 02:08:27,920
Speaker 1: country that believes that we should have a safety net

2237
02:08:27,960 --> 02:08:31,080
Speaker 1: and believes that there should be a well funded government. Okay,

2238
02:08:31,160 --> 02:08:34,760
Speaker 1: we can debate on what size of all that is,

2239
02:08:35,320 --> 02:08:37,800
Speaker 1: but there's general consensus. So the idea of starving the

2240
02:08:37,880 --> 02:08:40,840
Speaker 1: beast is only popular with about one in four voters.

2241
02:08:41,360 --> 02:08:44,720
Speaker 1: Three and four voters have something government does that they

2242
02:08:44,840 --> 02:08:49,080
Speaker 1: think should keep going. And I think that that's where

2243
02:08:49,680 --> 02:08:53,360
Speaker 1: you would have. And my guess is a referendum on

2244
02:08:53,480 --> 02:08:56,240
Speaker 1: this will actually get trounced. I don't think it would

2245
02:08:56,280 --> 02:09:01,080
Speaker 1: be that close. But maybe maybe I haven't. Maybe I'm

2246
02:09:01,120 --> 02:09:03,800
Speaker 1: not spending enough time in Florida these days. All right,

2247
02:09:03,880 --> 02:09:08,000
Speaker 1: last question for the episode comes from Adam and Davy, Florida.

2248
02:09:08,520 --> 02:09:11,040
Speaker 1: All Right, Florida man, he goes. I really enjoy your

2249
02:09:11,040 --> 02:09:15,280
Speaker 1: podcast format. It provides great entertainment useful information simultaneously. All Right,

2250
02:09:16,160 --> 02:09:22,280
Speaker 1: I'm being called entertaining. Take that those of you who

2251
02:09:22,400 --> 02:09:25,440
Speaker 1: think I drone on too long. Anyway, He's quickly become

2252
02:09:25,480 --> 02:09:28,400
Speaker 1: my daily political podcast of choice. Thank you. Particularly appreciate

2253
02:09:28,400 --> 02:09:31,880
Speaker 1: your passionate modern institutionalist viewpoint, which I share. Texas North

2254
02:09:31,920 --> 02:09:34,680
Speaker 1: Carolina both have March primaries. You know it, brother, After

2255
02:09:34,720 --> 02:09:36,640
Speaker 1: the votes locked in, do you think those House reps

2256
02:09:37,320 --> 02:09:39,960
Speaker 1: do begin to distance their self from Trump via their

2257
02:09:40,040 --> 02:09:42,080
Speaker 1: own House votes? Any one or two that you think

2258
02:09:42,440 --> 02:09:45,440
Speaker 1: already have a foot out the door on Trump? Is Well,

2259
02:09:45,560 --> 02:09:47,840
Speaker 1: this is exactly what I'm going to be curious about,

2260
02:09:48,000 --> 02:09:50,680
Speaker 1: is that once primary season is over, do you see

2261
02:09:51,280 --> 02:09:54,840
Speaker 1: a change? Now? Look, North Carolina, Texas earn't a lot

2262
02:09:54,920 --> 02:09:58,240
Speaker 1: of hugely competitive races there. Let me get on this

2263
02:09:58,320 --> 02:10:02,520
Speaker 1: primary calendar. I you know, I'm I'm in. I'm thinking

2264
02:10:02,560 --> 02:10:06,040
Speaker 1: it's going to be the Midwest is where I would

2265
02:10:06,080 --> 02:10:10,600
Speaker 1: be focused on this memo to any organization that claims

2266
02:10:10,640 --> 02:10:12,280
Speaker 1: to have a primary calendar, do not put it in

2267
02:10:12,320 --> 02:10:16,680
Speaker 1: alphabetical order. Please put it in chronological chronological order. We

2268
02:10:16,800 --> 02:10:19,680
Speaker 1: do not. You know, it just drives me nuts that

2269
02:10:20,440 --> 02:10:24,800
Speaker 1: when some institutions use alphabetical order on something where you

2270
02:10:25,360 --> 02:10:27,600
Speaker 1: were dates is the whole thing that you're looking for?

2271
02:10:28,120 --> 02:10:33,120
Speaker 1: Please chronological order? All right? So I think the first

2272
02:10:33,600 --> 02:10:35,920
Speaker 1: I think the first place that we might see some

2273
02:10:36,080 --> 02:10:40,720
Speaker 1: of this pushback. Ooh, I'm looking here. Look, obviously the

2274
02:10:40,960 --> 02:10:45,000
Speaker 1: main nineteenth primaries, which is a pretty busy night of primaries.

2275
02:10:45,040 --> 02:10:48,040
Speaker 1: You're going to have Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon. In Pennsylvania,

2276
02:10:48,680 --> 02:10:51,840
Speaker 1: I think obviously that's the Thomas Massey primary. So that's

2277
02:10:52,040 --> 02:10:56,720
Speaker 1: that's going to be a big deal. Dan Crenshaw in

2278
02:10:56,840 --> 02:10:59,480
Speaker 1: Texas he would be a big one to watch if

2279
02:10:59,520 --> 02:11:02,800
Speaker 1: he gets through, If he's able to survive, maybe there's

2280
02:11:02,840 --> 02:11:08,400
Speaker 1: no runoff. He wins without the support of Trump. Does

2281
02:11:08,480 --> 02:11:10,680
Speaker 1: he show that there is a way to do this

2282
02:11:10,880 --> 02:11:14,040
Speaker 1: and that you don't have anything to fear with him.

2283
02:11:15,400 --> 02:11:18,360
Speaker 1: But I still think that the Republicans that are most

2284
02:11:18,480 --> 02:11:20,520
Speaker 1: likely going to be looking for a way to break

2285
02:11:20,560 --> 02:11:23,040
Speaker 1: from Trump, at least on the tariff issue. It's going

2286
02:11:23,080 --> 02:11:27,560
Speaker 1: to be those with with with important parts of the

2287
02:11:27,600 --> 02:11:33,480
Speaker 1: farm economy. So that's Iowa, perhaps that's Nebraska. Very curious

2288
02:11:33,560 --> 02:11:37,200
Speaker 1: how Pete Ricketts navigates this. Right, Don Bacon has been

2289
02:11:37,400 --> 02:11:39,720
Speaker 1: very you know, he's not running. It would have been

2290
02:11:39,800 --> 02:11:42,560
Speaker 1: more awkward if he had Bacon running for reelection and

2291
02:11:42,840 --> 02:11:46,640
Speaker 1: being critical of Trump on tariffs versus Pete Ricketts, who

2292
02:11:47,040 --> 02:11:50,920
Speaker 1: probably doesn't like the tariffs either, but is a you know,

2293
02:11:52,000 --> 02:11:57,000
Speaker 1: doesn't want to upset upset him. Does that change after

2294
02:11:57,160 --> 02:12:00,600
Speaker 1: they passed their primary? Because Trump's got involved in hours before,

2295
02:12:01,200 --> 02:12:04,520
Speaker 1: uh in Nebraska, so that would be But I just

2296
02:12:04,640 --> 02:12:08,600
Speaker 1: think the farm states generally are where I would expect

2297
02:12:08,640 --> 02:12:11,480
Speaker 1: the first folks to peel off because it's the tariffs

2298
02:12:12,400 --> 02:12:15,960
Speaker 1: that I think are the safest place to show some

2299
02:12:16,160 --> 02:12:32,480
Speaker 1: distance from Trump and not alienate the MAGA base. All Right,

2300
02:12:34,240 --> 02:12:36,720
Speaker 1: I've gone long. I know I've gone long, but I

2301
02:12:37,600 --> 02:12:39,920
Speaker 1: you know, I do have something to say about the

2302
02:12:40,320 --> 02:12:43,720
Speaker 1: Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. And first of all,

2303
02:12:44,440 --> 02:12:47,080
Speaker 1: one of my favorite things every year is sort of

2304
02:12:47,200 --> 02:12:50,400
Speaker 1: the is the induction ceremony where they have these where

2305
02:12:50,400 --> 02:12:52,240
Speaker 1: all the artists get up there and they start, you know,

2306
02:12:52,320 --> 02:12:54,680
Speaker 1: doing something great, and some of them do it. Sometimes

2307
02:12:54,760 --> 02:12:57,640
Speaker 1: there's there's other artists come in and and sing along

2308
02:12:57,680 --> 02:13:00,520
Speaker 1: with them. Some of them have been terrific live concerts.

2309
02:13:00,520 --> 02:13:04,480
Speaker 1: I think the twenty fifth anniversary one is is one

2310
02:13:04,560 --> 02:13:09,520
Speaker 1: of those CDs that I own and then uploaded to

2311
02:13:09,600 --> 02:13:13,560
Speaker 1: my Apple library. So I love the Rock and Roll

2312
02:13:13,560 --> 02:13:16,520
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame. I've been there multiple times in Cleveland.

2313
02:13:16,680 --> 02:13:20,000
Speaker 1: I think it's fantastic. My only complaint about the museum

2314
02:13:20,080 --> 02:13:23,280
Speaker 1: itself is not enough music playing, Like when I go

2315
02:13:23,440 --> 02:13:25,120
Speaker 1: room to room, I want to, I want to I

2316
02:13:25,200 --> 02:13:27,960
Speaker 1: want the music curated for me. I don't want to

2317
02:13:28,000 --> 02:13:29,640
Speaker 1: have to go and you know, do these. But it's

2318
02:13:29,640 --> 02:13:32,839
Speaker 1: a museum, so I get that they've not quite figured

2319
02:13:32,840 --> 02:13:36,120
Speaker 1: that out. And of course the ceremony is never in Cleveland.

2320
02:13:36,160 --> 02:13:38,680
Speaker 1: It's always now in New York, which is this But

2321
02:13:38,800 --> 02:13:41,360
Speaker 1: here's my only beef, Like the Rock and Roll Hall

2322
02:13:41,400 --> 02:13:46,640
Speaker 1: of Fame that the nominees and we're seeing this this

2323
02:13:46,760 --> 02:13:51,640
Speaker 1: has increasingly been the case, right, our artists who you

2324
02:13:51,800 --> 02:13:55,840
Speaker 1: cannot find if you just search rock and roll on

2325
02:13:55,960 --> 02:14:00,200
Speaker 1: your favorite streaming music app right, Like all right, So

2326
02:14:00,240 --> 02:14:04,760
Speaker 1: Phil Collins as a solo artist. He's pop genesis. He

2327
02:14:04,800 --> 02:14:10,200
Speaker 1: had rock, Lauren Hill Wu, Tank Klang in excess. Are

2328
02:14:10,240 --> 02:14:15,640
Speaker 1: they rock? Melissa Etherrich, Luther Vandros that's R and B.

2329
02:14:16,600 --> 02:14:21,320
Speaker 1: That's not rock? Right, new edition Shakira is that rock?

2330
02:14:22,120 --> 02:14:24,040
Speaker 1: And I love me some Shakira, don't get me wrong.

2331
02:14:24,840 --> 02:14:29,200
Speaker 1: Now you have other nominees. Black Crows clearly rock, Iron Maiden,

2332
02:14:29,480 --> 02:14:36,440
Speaker 1: clearly rock. But Mariah Carey, you know it's interesting.

2333
02:14:36,520 --> 02:14:36,720
Speaker 3: I did.

2334
02:14:36,880 --> 02:14:40,160
Speaker 1: I did a little research with my friend mister Gemini,

2335
02:14:40,320 --> 02:14:43,880
Speaker 1: right just to just to see. I asked it. I said, hey,

2336
02:14:45,360 --> 02:14:48,600
Speaker 1: what genre are these artists in? You actually find them

2337
02:14:48,640 --> 02:14:52,320
Speaker 1: in the rock genre of Spotify or Apple Music. So,

2338
02:14:52,920 --> 02:14:57,640
Speaker 1: according to my friend mister Gemini, the true rockers, right,

2339
02:14:57,920 --> 02:15:00,680
Speaker 1: the safest, best for tradition, that you'd actually find in

2340
02:15:00,840 --> 02:15:03,520
Speaker 1: your if you were listening, if you're in if you're

2341
02:15:03,640 --> 02:15:07,440
Speaker 1: searching your genres of rock or metal, right, you'll get

2342
02:15:07,560 --> 02:15:13,320
Speaker 1: Iron Maiden, Oasis, the Black Crows. They put Melissa Etheridge

2343
02:15:13,600 --> 02:15:17,400
Speaker 1: in rock. Okay, you know I could be talked into that.

2344
02:15:18,120 --> 02:15:21,000
Speaker 1: I think she's more of a genre blender, if you will.

2345
02:15:21,600 --> 02:15:25,360
Speaker 1: Jeff Buckley, all right, then they and then mister Jim

2346
02:15:25,400 --> 02:15:27,560
Speaker 1: and I came up with what he called the genre blenders.

2347
02:15:27,640 --> 02:15:31,000
Speaker 1: They often have rock listed as a secondary genre or

2348
02:15:31,000 --> 02:15:34,480
Speaker 1: are also categorized as pop rock right, so more pop

2349
02:15:34,600 --> 02:15:39,000
Speaker 1: music depending on the album. Phil Collins is is pop

2350
02:15:39,120 --> 02:15:44,520
Speaker 1: rock in excess primarily new wave. But then they come

2351
02:15:44,600 --> 02:15:46,960
Speaker 1: up with dance rock. I've never seen a genre of

2352
02:15:47,080 --> 02:15:52,080
Speaker 1: dance rock. Am I ignorant? Am I missing this? This genre? Uh?

2353
02:15:52,280 --> 02:15:55,680
Speaker 1: If you will now punk, I would do that. Then

2354
02:15:55,720 --> 02:15:58,960
Speaker 1: there's you know, those that were with it that have

2355
02:15:59,160 --> 02:16:02,240
Speaker 1: no rock tag on their songs. Even in the secondary listing.

2356
02:16:02,560 --> 02:16:06,200
Speaker 1: According to mister Gemini, Wu Tang Clan, Lauren Hill, they're

2357
02:16:06,240 --> 02:16:10,320
Speaker 1: exclusively hip hop and rap, Mariah Carey, Pink Shakira primarily pop,

2358
02:16:11,680 --> 02:16:15,280
Speaker 1: though this notes that Pink occasionally gets a pop rock tag.

2359
02:16:15,400 --> 02:16:19,320
Speaker 1: For Early two thousand work obviously Luther Vandros a new

2360
02:16:19,440 --> 02:16:23,560
Speaker 1: edition R and B and soul and you have shot

2361
02:16:23,600 --> 02:16:30,400
Speaker 1: a usually tagged this soul or jazz. So look, it's

2362
02:16:30,480 --> 02:16:33,600
Speaker 1: interesting the first time nominees. We don't know who's going

2363
02:16:33,640 --> 02:16:36,720
Speaker 1: to get in. The First time nominees this year are

2364
02:16:36,720 --> 02:16:39,960
Speaker 1: Phil Collins, Lauryn Hill, Wu Tang Clan, Jeff Buckley in excess,

2365
02:16:40,040 --> 02:16:45,160
Speaker 1: Melissa Ethlerts, Lucier Vandros new edition, Pink Shakira. Phil Collins

2366
02:16:45,240 --> 02:16:49,039
Speaker 1: is going to get in. Genesis is already in. Phil

2367
02:16:49,120 --> 02:16:52,240
Speaker 1: Collins has health issues. I promise you, Phil Collins is

2368
02:16:52,280 --> 02:16:53,960
Speaker 1: going to get in. They're gonna won him at that

2369
02:16:54,080 --> 02:16:59,879
Speaker 1: ceremony there. Now, second time, haven't gotten in yet, Black Crows,

2370
02:17:00,160 --> 02:17:05,640
Speaker 1: Billy Idle not in yet. Shot Eh, Billy Idle, Come on,

2371
02:17:06,040 --> 02:17:09,920
Speaker 1: we gotta put him in. I think he belongs. And

2372
02:17:10,000 --> 02:17:12,480
Speaker 1: then the third time nominee who haven't gotten in. They've

2373
02:17:12,480 --> 02:17:15,600
Speaker 1: been nominated three times, still haven't gotten the call. Iron Maiden.

2374
02:17:17,640 --> 02:17:20,320
Speaker 1: I was kind of into metal. Iron Maiden was never

2375
02:17:20,360 --> 02:17:23,680
Speaker 1: at the top of my list. I respect, I respect

2376
02:17:23,680 --> 02:17:28,480
Speaker 1: their game. Don't get me wrong. Oasis. I gotta pull

2377
02:17:28,560 --> 02:17:32,840
Speaker 1: for Oasis. It's my son's favorite nineties band. He thinks Oasis,

2378
02:17:32,879 --> 02:17:35,240
Speaker 1: he goes. He thinks it's one of the best bands

2379
02:17:35,400 --> 02:17:38,840
Speaker 1: he's ever heard in the nineties. Don't judge him too

2380
02:17:38,879 --> 02:17:41,440
Speaker 1: harshly on that. Now I have kid. I think Oasis

2381
02:17:41,520 --> 02:17:44,160
Speaker 1: is touring again, and I think mom and son, we're

2382
02:17:44,200 --> 02:17:47,840
Speaker 1: going to go check that one out. New order in

2383
02:17:47,959 --> 02:17:51,879
Speaker 1: Mariah Carey also in the third time, But Mariah Carey

2384
02:17:53,080 --> 02:17:57,400
Speaker 1: I first of all, this is where Mariah Carey belongs

2385
02:17:57,480 --> 02:18:01,959
Speaker 1: in a Hall of fame of music hard stop? Right?

2386
02:18:03,680 --> 02:18:07,160
Speaker 1: Is it rock? Do we need to rename this hall

2387
02:18:07,200 --> 02:18:10,280
Speaker 1: of fame and just call it popular music Hall of Fame?

2388
02:18:11,280 --> 02:18:14,959
Speaker 1: Because that's essentially what we've done. And you know, Look,

2389
02:18:15,040 --> 02:18:17,480
Speaker 1: I'm a I don't want to call myself a rock purist,

2390
02:18:17,560 --> 02:18:20,080
Speaker 1: but I miss rock and roll. I don't think we

2391
02:18:20,240 --> 02:18:23,280
Speaker 1: have rock and roll anymore. Right, there are no rock

2392
02:18:23,360 --> 02:18:26,800
Speaker 1: bands anymore any I miss the electric guitar. The only

2393
02:18:26,879 --> 02:18:29,720
Speaker 1: place you can find good electric guitar riffs these days

2394
02:18:29,840 --> 02:18:32,760
Speaker 1: is in country music. And it's interesting. It's like what

2395
02:18:33,280 --> 02:18:36,400
Speaker 1: we used to call southern rock has almost all become

2396
02:18:36,480 --> 02:18:39,720
Speaker 1: country rock, if you will, and you see a lot

2397
02:18:39,800 --> 02:18:42,400
Speaker 1: more of it there. So I you know, and that

2398
02:18:42,440 --> 02:18:45,760
Speaker 1: would have been my way, but I'd love Look, we

2399
02:18:45,879 --> 02:18:49,280
Speaker 1: are all experts about our own music tastes, so I'm

2400
02:18:49,320 --> 02:18:51,119
Speaker 1: not going to sit here and claim I'm an expert.

2401
02:18:51,200 --> 02:18:54,280
Speaker 1: I have a very eclectic music taste. As a one

2402
02:18:54,360 --> 02:18:59,160
Speaker 1: time music major in college, I will put my my

2403
02:18:59,520 --> 02:19:04,520
Speaker 1: music knowledge up against anybody on that front. But I'd

2404
02:19:04,600 --> 02:19:08,160
Speaker 1: love to hear from you guys on this of what's

2405
02:19:08,200 --> 02:19:11,400
Speaker 1: your definition of rock. Have we had a great new

2406
02:19:11,520 --> 02:19:14,480
Speaker 1: rock band since the Killers? You know, part of me

2407
02:19:14,560 --> 02:19:17,040
Speaker 1: feels like that, you know, and are we done with

2408
02:19:17,360 --> 02:19:22,320
Speaker 1: rock the genre itself? Or is there a chance it

2409
02:19:22,440 --> 02:19:26,680
Speaker 1: comes back? Does Jen Alpha bring it back? For some reason? Now?

2410
02:19:26,879 --> 02:19:29,680
Speaker 1: I've heard other people argue that rock isn't necessarily a

2411
02:19:29,720 --> 02:19:33,560
Speaker 1: style of music. It is a it is are you

2412
02:19:33,959 --> 02:19:36,160
Speaker 1: do you have something to say it is? You know

2413
02:19:36,280 --> 02:19:39,560
Speaker 1: that the whole point of rock music was to make

2414
02:19:39,680 --> 02:19:43,560
Speaker 1: the older crowd and the establishment uncomfortable. And that's that's

2415
02:19:43,680 --> 02:19:48,560
Speaker 1: why hip hop qualifies as rock and roll because like

2416
02:19:48,760 --> 02:19:50,720
Speaker 1: rock and roll of the fifties and sixties, which was

2417
02:19:50,760 --> 02:19:54,680
Speaker 1: a disruptive music genre, so too has hip hop and

2418
02:19:54,879 --> 02:19:59,040
Speaker 1: rap been a disruptive music genre for the so called establishment.

2419
02:20:00,760 --> 02:20:04,640
Speaker 1: You know, that's a very expansive definition of rock and roll.

2420
02:20:04,680 --> 02:20:08,240
Speaker 1: But I still view it as an actual music genre,

2421
02:20:08,480 --> 02:20:13,280
Speaker 1: so in that sense, and I think the last rock

2422
02:20:13,400 --> 02:20:17,440
Speaker 1: band that I downloaded and was digging was Modest Mouse.

2423
02:20:18,600 --> 02:20:22,240
Speaker 1: All right, I would love some suggestions from you, guys,

2424
02:20:22,320 --> 02:20:26,440
Speaker 1: am I totally. You know. One of my frustrations with

2425
02:20:26,879 --> 02:20:30,160
Speaker 1: with algorithms and streaming services now is that even if

2426
02:20:30,200 --> 02:20:32,840
Speaker 1: you try to get new music, it feels like it's

2427
02:20:32,879 --> 02:20:35,320
Speaker 1: always trying to figure out what they think your taste is,

2428
02:20:35,720 --> 02:20:38,760
Speaker 1: and you get sort of curated new stuff that feels

2429
02:20:39,480 --> 02:20:42,240
Speaker 1: you're like, no, no, no, no, don't. I don't want that.

2430
02:20:42,480 --> 02:20:45,920
Speaker 1: So I used to have a lot of younger nieces

2431
02:20:45,959 --> 02:20:49,760
Speaker 1: and nephews and cousins who were pretty good about keeping

2432
02:20:49,840 --> 02:20:51,520
Speaker 1: me up to date. I wanted to know what was

2433
02:20:51,600 --> 02:20:56,800
Speaker 1: the interesting new music, and I missed that. You know,

2434
02:20:57,240 --> 02:20:59,240
Speaker 1: I got my son, he's not listening to new music.

2435
02:20:59,320 --> 02:21:03,400
Speaker 1: He's going back gold school and he's into the nineties.

2436
02:21:04,040 --> 02:21:06,960
Speaker 1: I got a swiftie that's a senior in college, and

2437
02:21:07,040 --> 02:21:10,000
Speaker 1: I'll just leave the you know, Taylor is who she is.

2438
02:21:13,360 --> 02:21:17,880
Speaker 1: But I don't know if my daughter is ready to

2439
02:21:18,040 --> 02:21:21,720
Speaker 1: leave the swifty Nation to keep pursuing other interesting new music.

2440
02:21:21,840 --> 02:21:25,000
Speaker 1: So I would love your thoughts on this. But yes,

2441
02:21:25,400 --> 02:21:28,920
Speaker 1: I think the big story out of this nomination is

2442
02:21:29,000 --> 02:21:33,480
Speaker 1: I suspect Phil Collins, who again Genesis is already in,

2443
02:21:33,720 --> 02:21:36,560
Speaker 1: so I don't know is he already in and now

2444
02:21:36,640 --> 02:21:39,320
Speaker 1: he'll be in as a solo artist, but I think

2445
02:21:39,360 --> 02:21:43,560
Speaker 1: that'll be a pretty poignant moment, assuming he does get

2446
02:21:43,640 --> 02:21:46,080
Speaker 1: the call, which I suspect he will. All right, so

2447
02:21:46,800 --> 02:21:49,200
Speaker 1: because I have a podcast, I can have random opinions

2448
02:21:49,240 --> 02:21:51,640
Speaker 1: about anything I feel like having, and I decided to

2449
02:21:51,680 --> 02:21:54,080
Speaker 1: have some random opinions about the Rock and Roll Hall

2450
02:21:54,120 --> 02:21:57,000
Speaker 1: of Fame. All Right, that Juria weekend. I'll see in

2451
02:21:57,080 --> 02:22:00,800
Speaker 1: seventy two hours, and guess what I see you next time.

2452
02:22:00,840 --> 02:22:02,960
Speaker 1: We are going to be on the eve of the

2453
02:22:03,080 --> 02:22:08,000
Speaker 1: start of campaign twenty twenty six. Officially. This is this

2454
02:22:08,200 --> 02:22:10,680
Speaker 1: is where I this is this is my sweet spot,

2455
02:22:10,879 --> 02:22:13,560
Speaker 1: this is what I love. This is why you tune in.

2456
02:22:14,160 --> 02:22:15,120
Speaker 1: I'll see after the weekend.