1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to Stuff You Missed in History Class from how 2 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: Stuff Works dot com. Hello, and welcome to the podcast. 3 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,600 Speaker 1: I'm editor Candice Gibson, joined by my guest Jane mcgrounds. 4 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: Right here. How's it going, Jane good? How are you good? 5 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 1: I have to tell you, Jane, I'm so glad you're here. 6 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: I have a pretty contentious topic to deal with today. 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: Swing states and you may call them battleground states, or 8 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 1: you may call them purple states, and that's because they 9 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: bleed both red and blue. But no matter what you 10 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: call them, tension is high there, that's right. And you 11 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: notice the news probably lately it's all about McCain or 12 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,480 Speaker 1: Obama in one particular state or another. In those states 13 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: aren't random, No, you're right, they're incredibly deliberate. And we've 14 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: talked a bit before in another podcast about the electoral College, 15 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 1: but it's worth mentioning again just to bring you guys 16 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: up to speed about why these swing states are so important. 17 00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: And the electoral College essentially has created an indirect voting 18 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,399 Speaker 1: system in the United States. That's right. And when you 19 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: vote for McCain or Obama or whoever you vote for 20 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,199 Speaker 1: in the voting booth, it's not actually directly going towards, uh, 21 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: the count towards those presidents, those um that candidate. Rather 22 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: it goes towards an electoral vote. Is that correct. That's 23 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 1: absolutely correct. And all states follow this policy except for 24 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: Maine in Nebraska and they have a district system, and 25 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: this is a little bit more complicated, but essentially what 26 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: happens here is that two of their electoral vote go 27 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 1: for the popular vote statewide, and then the rest of 28 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: the electoral votes represent the popular vote in each different 29 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: congressional district. And there's been talk before about applying that 30 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: system to the whole United States, but it hasn't happened yet. 31 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 1: So for now, when you vote, you're voting for an 32 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: electoral vote, which is voting for the president, and it 33 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: takes a majority of two seventy electoral votes to win. 34 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: That's right. And it seems kind of interesting because America 35 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: like surprise self and democracy, whereas if you look at it, uh, 36 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: someone voting in a swing state, for instance, might see 37 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: to their vote count more than if you were if 38 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: you were living in a safe state. Seems sort of 39 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: anti democratic to some people. Yeah, and you may want 40 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: to explain a little bit more about safe states for 41 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 1: everybody out there. I think that there's a popular misconception 42 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: that if you live in a safe state that's Republican 43 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: and you vote Democrat, then you've just negated your voice. Yeah, 44 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: it's not really true because you know, swing states can 45 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: always change. If you look at the last election. In 46 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: this election, there's a lot more swing states it looks 47 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: like now. And also the the idea of reapportionment. Whenever 48 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: there's a sensus done, uh, you know, the number of 49 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,119 Speaker 1: electoral votes could shift, and so you know, the state 50 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: you live in could be generations and generations vote Republican 51 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:43,920 Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden this election it's more 52 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 1: of a swing state. And I think that they're about 53 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: nine states and in the past ten years have voted 54 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: Republican each time, and then there's five states to have 55 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: a really strong Democratic showing consistently. But it doesn't always 56 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: depend on tradition. There's any number of factor that could 57 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: persuade a state to get a different way. Um. Take 58 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: North Carolina for instance. Back in the carry Edwards ticket, 59 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 1: people were kind of worried that North Carolina wouldn't go 60 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,359 Speaker 1: red again because Edwards wise from North Carolina. They thought 61 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: that the Republicans there could be persuaded to vote Democrat 62 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 1: to support Edwards. Okay, yeah, and it's interesting if you 63 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: look at this this election. You look at Colorado, for instance, 64 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: and it's typically Republican, but if you notice the Democrats 65 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 1: actually held their convention there this year, and that wasn't 66 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: an accident. It's because it's getting a little bit more purple. 67 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: And whether the issues and the population change, and it's 68 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: always always up for grabs. And just to clarify, if 69 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 1: you're trying to envision a map of the United States 70 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: and you're trying to look at which states could be 71 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: red or blue or purple, primarily Republican safe states are 72 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: in the South and the plains areas, and Democrats are 73 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: more concentrated, and then northeast along the Pacific Coast and 74 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 1: the Upper Midwest. And that can be deceptive because it 75 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: might look like the most of the United States is 76 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 1: going red for Republicans, whereas those states tend to be 77 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 1: less populated than We've got to remember population that is 78 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: such a big deal, and that's why you typically don't 79 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: see the candidate it's going to states with small populations. 80 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: That's true. That whether it's a swing state might not 81 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: matter if that state happens to have leap three electoral 82 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: boats for instance, precise light. Now, sometimes you know, they'll 83 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: go where the money is, and if there's a lot 84 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 1: of money coming from that state, they'll get down there. 85 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: They'll kiss some babies, they'll shake some hands, they'll eat 86 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: some barbecue, and then and then take off. And we 87 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 1: mentioned before that there is such a careful and calculated 88 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: strategy the candidates have to use when picking which stage 89 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 1: to visit. And I don't use calculated to have a 90 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: negative connotation. I'm in calculated to make you guys think 91 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: about the fact that there's tons of political analysts out there, 92 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: you know, crunching numbers and working for these campaigns and 93 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: deciding where they need to spend their time and focus 94 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:58,799 Speaker 1: their energy. And this election has been so strange because, 95 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: like you said, Jane, there's some dates this year that 96 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 1: aren't so safe anymore, and it's really making them ruttled, 97 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: it is. And there's been a lot of jabs thrown 98 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: from these particular states. You know, when candidate spends a 99 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: day there and seems to gain some ground, and then 100 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 1: he leaves and someone else comes in and there's some 101 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: new shake up. So in the two thousand and eight election, 102 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 1: things are looking a little bit shifty. We're not quite 103 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,479 Speaker 1: sure how it's going to play out. But if we 104 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: look back at elections of the past, we can see 105 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: how some of these calculations may or may not have 106 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: worked in the candidate's favor. And sometimes when these candidates 107 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: around the campaign trial, they make promises that don't exactly 108 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 1: pan out. That's true if you look back the election 109 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: of nineteen sixty Um Nixon was battling it out with 110 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 1: Kennedy at the time, and uh, he and Nixon actually 111 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 1: pledged to visit every single state to campaign everyone. And 112 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 1: you know, it's in laon theory. It's it's it's nice 113 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: to hear that that a candidate cares about everyone. But 114 00:05:56,520 --> 00:06:00,160 Speaker 1: as you and I probably realize the it didn't turn 115 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: out as well as he planned and ended up being 116 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 1: a big waste of time actually, because because there are 117 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 1: lots of states that he visited that he didn't have to, 118 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: like states that were solid for Kennedy or states so 119 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:11,679 Speaker 1: we're solid for himself. They were just so a waste 120 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 1: of his campaigning time and he ended up spending the 121 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: last weekend before the election in Alaska, which you know, 122 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: it actually was kind of a battle girl state at 123 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,359 Speaker 1: the time, but it didn't have a lot of electoral 124 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 1: votes and he did end up winning the state, but 125 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:28,679 Speaker 1: he lost the election. It's too bad. I admire his 126 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: his initiative theories. Again, it seemed like a good idea 127 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: and theory. And you know, that's it's so funny about 128 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: these swing states as you just never know. Like one 129 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: of the most famous cases that is in our very 130 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 1: recent US history is the two thousand election and we 131 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: look at what happened with Florida and um, gosh, you 132 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: know that came down to five thirty seven votes. That's 133 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 1: zero point zero one percent. Isn't that crazy? And a 134 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: lot of these swing states they operate on a margin 135 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: of about point one percent, but the point zero one 136 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: that's kind of unbelievable. Yeah, And this year there's so 137 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: many more uh factors in the equation that are influencing 138 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: people one way or the other. Something that's come up 139 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: pretty recently is this voter purge. And what's going on 140 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: here is that there's a lot of names being deleted 141 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: from the voter registry and whether that's because they think 142 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: that someone has has been has been deceased, and whether 143 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 1: that's because a person is thought to have died or 144 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 1: has moved to another state, or his or her name 145 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: no longer matches up with what's in the registry, or 146 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: this person has been declared unfit to vote for whatever reason. 147 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: These people they're not always being informed ahead of time. 148 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: So if they're showing up for early voting, some of 149 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: them are being turned away. And this isn't just happening 150 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: to a couple of hundred or a couple of thousands, 151 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: happening to a couple of million. And again, the numbers 152 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:53,679 Speaker 1: are showing right now that a lot of these people 153 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: who are being turned away from polls they may have 154 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: been leaning blue and so we're not sure how that's 155 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 1: going to play out. And the but the swing states, Yeah, 156 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: this voter registration for it is really mucking everything up, 157 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: isn't it is it is? And there's a nonpartisan advocacy 158 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: group called fair Vote, and they're saying that there's so 159 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: much anticipated voter turnout for this selection that some of 160 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 1: the swing states aren't prepared to handle the huge influx 161 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: of voters. That's really interesting. It's good to hear in 162 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: a way because you know, you look back a past election, 163 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: I think two thousand four, only six of voting each 164 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 1: population ended up showing up to the polls. So it's 165 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: kind of disheartening that so many people seem to not care, 166 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: you know. But this year, I don't think that's going 167 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: to be the case, and analysts are saying that it's 168 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: likely going to be the swing states that hold the 169 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:38,679 Speaker 1: key to the winner of the selection. And there were 170 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 1: actually three states in the last election that had incredibly 171 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: close margins. Those were Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico. So 172 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,439 Speaker 1: for all of our listeners there, make sure you vote. 173 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: And if you need more information about the candidates they're running, mates, 174 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: the electoral college and other stuff relating to politics and government, 175 00:08:55,640 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: visit how stuff works dot com. For more on this 176 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: and thousands of other topics, visit how stuff works dot com. 177 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: Let us know what you think. Send an email to 178 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: podcast at how stuff works dot com. M