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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, Chris? Indeed, we do a lot

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Speaker 1: of big stories to get to this morning. We are

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Speaker 1: continuing to closely closely follow the Russia war in Ukraine

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Speaker 1: and the possibility of a nuclear attack seems like something

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Speaker 1: we should all be paying a lot of attention to,

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Speaker 1: and something the media should have been paying attention to

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Speaker 1: all the way along. So we'll dig into all of

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Speaker 1: that in addition, we have new developments with regarding the

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Speaker 1: emerging energy crisis in Europe in particular, and gas prices

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Speaker 1: here at home also set to continue going up, so

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Speaker 1: we'll take a look at that. We also have some

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Speaker 1: other new indicators about the economy, digging into the housing market,

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Speaker 1: digging into the job market, which is showing signs of slowing,

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Speaker 1: exactly what the FED intended for it to do, even

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Speaker 1: though the UN is warning that if the FED and

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Speaker 1: other central banks around the world continue hiking interest rates,

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Speaker 1: they could trigger a severe recession. So we'll talk about that. Boy,

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Speaker 1: do we have some news for you about the midterms.

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Speaker 1: We've got some holes on a Nevada. But the big

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Speaker 1: story this morning is what the hell is going on

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Speaker 1: in Georgia. Some major family drama from herschel Walker after

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Speaker 1: story came out alleging that he had paid for or

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Speaker 1: an abortion for a girlfriend a while back, So we'll

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Speaker 1: get into all of that. Is an ugly story, but

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Speaker 1: very relevant for what's going to happen with the mid

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Speaker 1: terms ultimately, Yeah, no, absolutely, yeah. And then the last

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Speaker 1: thing we're going to take a look at. You guys

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Speaker 1: are probably aware of this story from the NFL quarterback

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Speaker 1: who had appeared to suffer a concussion, was allowed back

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Speaker 1: in a game, and the four days later he's on

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Speaker 1: the field again suffers what appears to be a fairly

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Speaker 1: severe brain injury. I mean, the videos of this are horrific,

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Speaker 1: raising all kinds of questions about what the hell is

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Speaker 1: going on in the NFL. How this man was allowed

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Speaker 1: to back in the game to start with, and then

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Speaker 1: to play four days later. So we'll break all of

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Speaker 1: that down for you. But great guest on as well,

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Speaker 1: Bronco Marcetek to talk about the war in Ukraine and

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Speaker 1: the media's failures with that regard. Before we get to

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Speaker 1: any of that, though, Live Show, Number one, Live Show,

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Speaker 1: put it up there on the screen. That's right, We've

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Speaker 1: got the tickets on sale. We've got some awesome production

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Speaker 1: that's happening right now that we're planning a lot of

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Speaker 1: audience participation. It is going to be a real experience.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be good vibes. Only if the world

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Speaker 1: is going to end, we're at least going to do

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Speaker 1: it on our own terms. And then number two counterpoints, Man,

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Speaker 1: they did such a fantastic job on Friday. I'm excited

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Speaker 1: to see what they're going to do tomorrow, They're having

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Speaker 1: their special Wednesday. I guess we should have made a special.

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Speaker 1: Actually Wednesday counts tomorrow because Ryan and Emily are going

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Speaker 1: to be out on Friday. But they always do a

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Speaker 1: fantastic job. And we've got the discount going on right now,

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Speaker 1: ten percent off on the annual membership. It really does

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Speaker 1: help us out so much in terms of hiring, in

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Speaker 1: terms of producing, and we are going to have some

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Speaker 1: news on the hiring front very soon. Yeah, everybody. Indeed,

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Speaker 1: introducing the new crew member here to the breaking points

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Speaker 1: seem made entirely possible by all of you. It just

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Speaker 1: means so much that you are able to fund us

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Speaker 1: so that we can pay two you know, salaries on

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Speaker 1: top of all the contractors and so many people who

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Speaker 1: support this show. So once again, I just want to

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Speaker 1: say thank you to all those premium Meta are super

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Speaker 1: excited to make that announcement imminently. We actually just informed

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Speaker 1: him yesterday that, you know, we wanted to bring him

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Speaker 1: on board. Some of you will actually know, so we'll

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Speaker 1: just leave it. We'll just leave it at that for now,

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Speaker 1: but very exciting. I think is going to be a

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Speaker 1: phenomenal addition to the team. James is also excited both

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Speaker 1: to get the help but also you know, the two

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Speaker 1: it's going to be great. It's gonna be good. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's get to the news Ukraine. Obviously, we have to

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Speaker 1: keep all of our eyes on what's happening with the

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Speaker 1: nuclear posture in Russia. Now, one of the cautions that

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Speaker 1: the US military, the administration, and others have said is

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Speaker 1: that we will take Putin seriously if we begin to

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Speaker 1: see movement of actual nuclear assets inside of Russia. So

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Speaker 1: something that we all need to become familiar familiar with

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Speaker 1: is something called the twelfth the Directorate. It is the

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Speaker 1: division of the Russian military which is responsible for nuclear weapons.

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Speaker 1: They have a variety of different assets on the land.

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Speaker 1: One of them is trains in terms of the mobile

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Speaker 1: movement of the supposed missiles that they, if possible were

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Speaker 1: to be deployed, would be deployed by this division. So

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Speaker 1: all eyes exactly on that. So let's go ahead and

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Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. This was breaking

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Speaker 1: out of the Times of London in the UK that

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Speaker 1: says Putin orders the nuclear military train to the Ukrainian

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Speaker 1: front line. Now, I want to be very clear here.

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Speaker 1: This is so specifically to defense sources in the UK,

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Speaker 1: has not been yet confirmed by the Pentagon. So I

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Speaker 1: went ahead and checked last night, Crystal. There was a

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Speaker 1: Defense Department briefing. A senior administration official on background was

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Speaker 1: actually asked at the Pentagon the highest level, mister, you know,

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Speaker 1: Immed It was either the Secretary of Defense or was

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Speaker 1: a Pentagon press secretary. I'm not sure which it was

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Speaker 1: because it was technically on background, but I read through

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Speaker 1: the text and he just said, quote, I have no

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Speaker 1: information for you on that, not denying it, not confirming

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Speaker 1: it either. So that is at the highest level from

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Speaker 1: the United States. Again, has not been yet confirmed or

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Speaker 1: addressed at the highest level in the UK. This is

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Speaker 1: purely sourced here. It is also citing a defense analysts

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Speaker 1: who is based in Poland who said that the train

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Speaker 1: was spotted in central Russia and linked to the twelfth

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Speaker 1: Main Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense, responsible for

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Speaker 1: nuclear munitions, their storage, maintaince transport and issuance to units.

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Speaker 1: So why does this matter. All eyes are going to

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Speaker 1: be on this train, on this twelfth Directorate because it

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Speaker 1: would presage any potential nuclear strike. Now, of course, the

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Speaker 1: Russians also have a capability to do this completely out

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Speaker 1: of the blue if they want. I mean, they're great

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Speaker 1: power military at the nuclear level. In particular, they have

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Speaker 1: submarines that are capable of this, they have cruise missiles,

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Speaker 1: hypersonics and all of that. There be belief here is

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Speaker 1: that because the twelfth Director it also has the responsibility

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Speaker 1: over the so called tactical nuclear weapons, that given the

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Speaker 1: type of strike that anybody would expect, if the unthinkable

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Speaker 1: were to happen, it would probably be under their purview

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Speaker 1: because of their responsibility for handling these so called tactical nukes.

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Speaker 1: And I think we should again revisit this for everybody

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Speaker 1: who's on the show because something that we said yesterday

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Speaker 1: was that a tactical nuke can be as small as

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Speaker 1: and I would just want to emphasize this as small

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Speaker 1: as included in our Hillary shell that takes out a

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Speaker 1: single unit. But that's not what is limited to and

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Speaker 1: that's why I think the entire thing is a misnomer.

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Speaker 1: It can also be one hundred times more powerful than

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Speaker 1: the bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima. That also falls

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Speaker 1: within the realm of a quote unquote tactical nuclear weapon,

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Speaker 1: which is exactly why this is so dangerous in the

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Speaker 1: first place. And you know, just to reiterate the explanation

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Speaker 1: for those who may not have heard yesterday. Part of

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Speaker 1: the reason why I think this is so important is

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Speaker 1: that there is no such thing as a quote unquote

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Speaker 1: tactical nuke. Because even if a tactical quote unquote nuclear

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Speaker 1: weapon is used just to take out in our city

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Speaker 1: block with an artillery shell or even one hundred ton

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Speaker 1: level or sorry not one hundred ton when I say

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Speaker 1: one hundred times more powerful than the Moab bomb, I

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Speaker 1: remember that one, the mother of all bombs that we

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Speaker 1: dropped on Afghanistan. Yeah, under Trump, such an event is

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Speaker 1: just so so like groundbreaking in terms of what it

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Speaker 1: means for the situation that it would automatically result in

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Speaker 1: a change in the overall strategic posture. Thus, it doesn't

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Speaker 1: have any tactical case for its use. It only has

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Speaker 1: the ability to strategically push the situation in a totally

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Speaker 1: different direction, either outright war with Russia, between NATO and

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Speaker 1: the United States and Russia, or full blood you know,

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Speaker 1: basically blank check to the Ukrainians you guys, get anything

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Speaker 1: that you could possibly want, or you know, actual capitulation

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Speaker 1: by the Ukrainian state after a horrific strike. All of

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Speaker 1: those things would change the picture dramatically. The bottom line is,

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Speaker 1: there is no one on earth who can promise you that,

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Speaker 1: in the event of a quote unquote tactical nuclear strike,

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Speaker 1: that you do not enter a chain of never ending

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Speaker 1: escalation that results in all out nuclear war. That's right.

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Speaker 1: That's why we are so skeptical of this idea that

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Speaker 1: there is in fact a thing that is just quote

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Speaker 1: unquote a tactical nuclear weapon, because ultimately, okay, the chain

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Speaker 1: of escalation may take a little bit longer, but you're

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Speaker 1: still in a situation where okay, then what does the

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Speaker 1: US and NATO do? Okay, what does Russia do in

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Speaker 1: response to that? Okay, then what do we do in

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Speaker 1: response to that? And as I said, there is no one,

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Speaker 1: even the people who would argue that, yes, there is

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Speaker 1: a tachical nuclear weapon and yes we can keep the

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Speaker 1: escalation chain from going. There is no one who can

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Speaker 1: guarantee you that. That's why this is such an important

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Speaker 1: and frankly terrifying red line. I mean, listen, with regard

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Speaker 1: to this nuclear trained situation. Obviously, Putin is right now

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Speaker 1: in the business of trying very hard to persuade the

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Speaker 1: West that he is very serious about the possibility of

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Speaker 1: using tactical nuclear weapons to defend what he now considers

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Speaker 1: his territory, even though they can't even agree on exactly

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Speaker 1: where those territorial lines are. I mean, think about how

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Speaker 1: insane that is right now. And we're going to get

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Speaker 1: to this in a minute, but right now, in Russia,

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Speaker 1: they literally don't know where the borders of their own

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Speaker 1: country are. Like, that's how crazy this whole situation is.

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Speaker 1: And then you're threatening to use nuclear weapons to defend

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Speaker 1: borders that you have not even defined and that your

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Speaker 1: own people don't know where they are. That's the level

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Speaker 1: of insanity and like a terrifying situation that we're facing

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Speaker 1: down right now now to the people who would say, like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you can't just like, you know, you shouldn't appease this guy,

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Speaker 1: and you can't give into these nuclear threats because then ultimately,

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Speaker 1: you know, everybody will want a nuclear weapon because you

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Speaker 1: see the way they serve as deterrence. Yeah, they do.

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Speaker 1: That's called reality. I mean, we would be handling this

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Speaker 1: situation very differently if Russia was not a nuclear arm state.

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Speaker 1: That's just the reality of the situation. So you can

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Speaker 1: either live with that reality and deal with it and

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Speaker 1: do everything you can to avoid devastating World War three,

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Speaker 1: or you can sort of like put the blinders on

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Speaker 1: as we've been doing, as the media has been doing,

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Speaker 1: as the Biden administration has been doing, and continue to

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Speaker 1: sleep walk into an ever escalating crisis that ends in

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Speaker 1: a terrifying, terrifying situation. I agree, and we will hold.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to table some of my thoughts on that,

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Speaker 1: you know, for when we talk about Eon Musk. But

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Speaker 1: to get and again show you the insanity of why

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Speaker 1: this is so dangerous is the ambiguity of the situation

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Speaker 1: on the ground. So let's go and put this up

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Speaker 1: there on the screen because split screen at the same

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Speaker 1: time said train is moving. By the way, also it

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Speaker 1: could be an exercise, you know, as you said, in

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Speaker 1: order to bluff, in order to scale analysts, in order

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Speaker 1: to scare the military. We have ongoing Ukrainian gains in

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Speaker 1: the north and both in the northeast and in the south.

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Speaker 1: The full fledged fall essentially of Lineman pushing on the

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Speaker 1: Curson front line there were some reports there that the

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Speaker 1: Russians had fallen back, but that don't appear to be true.

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Speaker 1: But there is heavy, heavy fighting in that region, and

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Speaker 1: of course the reason that matters is it was just

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Speaker 1: annexed there by the Kremlin. Now the next one is

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Speaker 1: even more important. Let's go and put this up there

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Speaker 1: on the screen, which is that they have acknowledged that

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Speaker 1: forces have broken through in the Cursion region. Now again

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Speaker 1: they haven't said necessarily that they've fallen back, that it's

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Speaker 1: been a kratistrophic loss. But this, coming after the defeat

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Speaker 1: in Lynman, after the humiliating success from a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago, is just day after day after day of

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Speaker 1: bad actual military news for the Kremlin on the ground,

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Speaker 1: which is also leading them to beclown themselves. So finally,

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Speaker 1: this is, you know, a great point from Michael Brandon Dherty.

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Speaker 1: Let's put this up there, which is that the Kremlin

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Speaker 1: says we are going to continue to consult the populations

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Speaker 1: of these regions when referring to the regions that are

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Speaker 1: partially controlled by the Ukrainian military, And as he points out,

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Speaker 1: we've annexed these regions, but we don't really know what

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Speaker 1: their borders are, they might be smaller. It's not exactly

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Speaker 1: a message of strength. And that's why. You know, Look,

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Speaker 1: I will savage Western policymakers here all day, but these

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Speaker 1: people are the ones who are putting us in such

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Speaker 1: a dangerous position. You are issuing nuclear threats over ground.

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Speaker 1: You do not control where the where, all the territory

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Speaker 1: is fluid. You have proven yourself incapable of even holding

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Speaker 1: this against a third rate military when you're supposedly great power.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they are the architects of their own nightmare scenario.

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Speaker 1: Nobody asked you to do this. Nobody asked you to

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Speaker 1: annex these people, and your saber rattling is putting us,

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Speaker 1: all of us in a dangerous position, including your own population.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, if I was scared. If I was,

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Speaker 1: I beget if the mobilization hadn't, I am getting the

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Speaker 1: hell out of here. There is no future for Russia

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Speaker 1: in the modern sense, you know. Richard Hanania, a friend

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Speaker 1: of the show, wrote a fantastic piece that I can't

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Speaker 1: stop thinking about, which is that the promise of the

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Speaker 1: Russian and the Chinese projects was they will not have

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Speaker 1: liberal democracy, but they will be able to guarantee certain

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Speaker 1: things like healthcare and all that healthcare, strong economy, as

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Speaker 1: long as you subserve obviously your rights to the authoritarian state.

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Speaker 1: The Ukraine situation has basically said that promise of Russia

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Speaker 1: is over. I mean, no matter what happens after this

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Speaker 1: with the Putin regime, with the survival even of some

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Speaker 1: of the hardliners, this will be an economic backwater for decades.

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Speaker 1: There's just no getting around that. China also, not to

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Speaker 1: make this too philosophical, but like their zero covid idiocy

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Speaker 1: is actually destroying their economy. It possibly will crash the

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Speaker 1: global economy, and they don't care because they would rather

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Speaker 1: have authoritarianism and control people rather than have prosperity for

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Speaker 1: their middle class and also throw people into camps. And

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Speaker 1: I think the point that he was making is he's like, look,

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, you know, in longevity,

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Speaker 1: like what you're looking in terms of long market, you

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Speaker 1: really can't bet on these types of states in the interims.

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Speaker 1: So I think that Putin is proving this in Putin

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Speaker 1: is proving this prospect. But and this is the caution,

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Speaker 1: which is that in that chaos and in the demise,

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Speaker 1: possibly over the long term, like, there's a hell of

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Speaker 1: a lot of risk whenever you control the world's largest

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Speaker 1: nuclear arsenal. I mean, there's part of the Chinese model

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Speaker 1: that has worked phenomenally over time, actually in terms of

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Speaker 1: growing their middle class, in terms of having a strong

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Speaker 1: state hand, in terms of industrial policy. I mean, a

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Speaker 1: lot of what they have done has been extraordinarily successful.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, you see the cost of that right now

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Speaker 1: with the zero COVID lockdowns and the like, you know,

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Speaker 1: just blatant authoritarianism that is rampant right now with regards

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Speaker 1: to Russia. I mean, it's just it's just really hard

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Speaker 1: to wrap your head around the situation that they have

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Speaker 1: put them into. And yeah, like all the Western antagonisms

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Speaker 1: that we've gone over and NATO expansion after we said

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Speaker 1: we wouldn't, and inviting Ukraine to to join when that

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Speaker 1: was clearly a red line for them, all of those

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Speaker 1: things ultimately putin and his you know, cornies are the

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Speaker 1: ones that made this decision and have continued to make

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Speaker 1: horrific decisions for themselves and their own population and their

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Speaker 1: future prospects. So right now, I do feel like that

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Speaker 1: is best summed up in the insanity of saying you're

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Speaker 1: going to defend your borders with nuclear weapons, but also

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Speaker 1: that you don't know where those borders are. Like that

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Speaker 1: says it all, right there. There's a piece yesterday that

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Speaker 1: people in this Linemen area that Ukrainians just took back.

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Speaker 1: They were like, wait, we were in Russia. This was

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Speaker 1: supposedly part of the neo Russian intern I didn't know.

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Speaker 1: They didn't even know that. Are like, wait, we were

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Speaker 1: Russian right for a minute. What I mean, they just

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Speaker 1: they had no idea. So, I mean that just tells

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Speaker 1: you how like, absolutely farcical this whole situation is. But

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Speaker 1: even as it's, you know, kind of funny to laugh at,

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Speaker 1: it's obviously deadly serious. And this whole nuclear train situation

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Speaker 1: just shows you Putin is trying very, very very hard

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Speaker 1: to convince the West that he may well use tactical

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Speaker 1: nuclear weapons because he's kind of out of other options.

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Speaker 1: And I think we have to take that seriously, even

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Speaker 1: as so much of what they have done has ended

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Speaker 1: up being quite clownish and ultimately bad for their own population.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the number of people who the number of

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Speaker 1: military age men who are fleeing the country or trying

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Speaker 1: to flee the country there's all kinds of reports of

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Speaker 1: businesses and farms that basically can't operate because you had

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Speaker 1: people receiving conscription subpoenas at work, and so they stop

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Speaker 1: coming to work, or they you know, they see their

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Speaker 1: friends getting served these subpoenas and they, you know, decide, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I got to make a break for it and get

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Speaker 1: out of here all together. So this is having catastrophic

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Speaker 1: ramifications in the Russian economy, and it's just it's just

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Speaker 1: astonishing to watch, honestly, really is. And you know, I'll

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Speaker 1: end with this, which is that I was actually reading

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Speaker 1: as much as I could about what we know about

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Speaker 1: the makeup of the Russian nuclear force, and their nuclear

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Speaker 1: arsenal is actually much more heavily weighted crystal towards these

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Speaker 1: tactical nuclear weapons. It's much more a part of their

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Speaker 1: nuclear doctrine. So of the seven four hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: four missiles that are nuclear warheads that we know about

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Speaker 1: within the Russian arsenal, one thousand, eight hundred of them

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Speaker 1: are actually non strategic tactical nuclear weapons. To compare that

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Speaker 1: to the United States, we have fifty seven hundred nuclear weapons,

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Speaker 1: only two hundred and thirty of ours are so called

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Speaker 1: battlefield tactical. It's a total difference in battlefield ideology. And

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Speaker 1: also why I think that it is worth taking it seriously,

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Speaker 1: which is when you have so much of a makeup

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Speaker 1: of your force, clearly it is part of your application

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Speaker 1: of force in your doctrine to have so many weapons

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Speaker 1: that these are weapons not just of a last resort,

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Speaker 1: but to be reached for in the middle of any

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Speaker 1: such conflict, you know, for things to go to a

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Speaker 1: very bad place. So look, that's the best that we

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Speaker 1: can say for right now. All we know is that

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Speaker 1: according to people in the UK defense analysts and others,

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Speaker 1: the train is moving. The Pentagon has not yet denied it.

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Speaker 1: From what we know about that, absolutely nothing could be

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Speaker 1: a threat could be real. It's ambiguous as the lines

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Speaker 1: on the ground are being redrawn. And I just underscore

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Speaker 1: again the absolute insanity of we're going to defend our

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Speaker 1: territory but we don't know what to where that territory is,

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Speaker 1: where that territory is. It is the single most irresponsible

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Speaker 1: action of a state since the Cuban missile crisis. It's

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Speaker 1: just absolutely insane. All right, Let's go ahead and move

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Speaker 1: on to the next one on Elon musk Man, Elon

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Speaker 1: poking the bear and making a lot of people have

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Speaker 1: their mass off. Now I'm not going to defend Elon's

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Speaker 1: proposal necessarily, but let's start with this. But put it

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Speaker 1: up there on the screen. Nor the wisdom of using

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Speaker 1: a Twitter poll to do like for diplomacy anyway, here's Elon,

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Speaker 1: out of the blue, tweets this Ukraine Russia peace colon

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Speaker 1: redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves,

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Speaker 1: if that is the will of the people. Number two Crimea,

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Speaker 1: formerly part of Russia as it has been since seventeen

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Speaker 1: eighty three until Khrushchev's mistake. Number four water supply to

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Speaker 1: Crimea assured. Number five Ukraine remains neutral. He follows up quote,

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Speaker 1: this is highly likely to be the outcome in the end,

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Speaker 1: just a question of how many die before then, also

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Speaker 1: says quote also worth noting if a possible, albeit unlikely

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Speaker 1: outcome from this conflict is nuclear war. Now, look, there

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Speaker 1: are a couple of things that you could say about this,

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Speaker 1: which I would say you can critique in good faith.

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Speaker 1: Number one, the idea of any free and fair election

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Speaker 1: in these regions after Russia has occupied it and depopulated

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Speaker 1: it of any pro Ukrainian forces. Even if the election

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Speaker 1: was free and fair, all these pro Ukrainians are either

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Speaker 1: dead or they're in Poland or in the eastern part

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Speaker 1: of the country. Like, you can't have a quote unquote

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Speaker 1: free and fair election after you forcibly moved the part

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Speaker 1: of the population that would have voted for Now. Again,

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Speaker 1: it's not to say that many of these people don't

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Speaker 1: want to be a part of Russia. If you had

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Speaker 1: held this a couple of years ago, I'm relatively certain

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Speaker 1: they probably would have chosen to beat Russian And that

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Speaker 1: actually shows you that the person who is most responsible

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Speaker 1: for like screwing up their chance at true independence are

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Speaker 1: joining Russia is Putin. I mean, because he's made it basically,

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Speaker 1: he has made it impossible to have the type of

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Speaker 1: referendums that could be potentially respected internationally. But so that

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Speaker 1: I think is probably the most objectionable part of it.

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Speaker 1: But number two, when he says crimea formerly part of Russia,

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Speaker 1: as has been since seventeen eighty three, Look, I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to use the term Khrushchev's mistake. That's literally a

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Speaker 1: Russian term, so they can call it what. I don't

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Speaker 1: give it. I don't give a damn about Krushchev, former

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Speaker 1: Soviet Union, whatever. I'm going to look at this and say, well,

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Speaker 1: Russia's controlled US. In twenty thirteen, the world basically accepted it.

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Speaker 1: They were let back into the G seven. It was

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Speaker 1: a de facto acknowledgment by the United States, the European Union,

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Speaker 1: the United Nations, even if nobody ever did it in

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Speaker 1: part and base, everybody just learned to live with it.

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Speaker 1: So maybe we just never formally recognize it. But also

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Speaker 1: certain sanctions that are in place over that come away

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Speaker 1: if you withdraw and keep you know, your forces in Crimea.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's where the Ukrainians need to get real.

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Speaker 1: And that's actually why why I wanted to do this,

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Speaker 1: is it chose to me how emboldened the Ukrainians are,

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Speaker 1: at the very least publicly to say that their most

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Speaker 1: maximuist aims are the only things that they will accept.

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Speaker 1: Because they ridiculed him for suggesting this, of which, if

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Speaker 1: you said this in twenty and fifteen, everyone be like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's true, you know, I mean Obama said this in

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Speaker 1: twenty fourteen or in twenty sixteen in his famous interview

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Speaker 1: with Jeffrey Goldberg, and guess what it's like. That was

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Speaker 1: just a generally part of the accepted consensus. I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying it's a good thing. I don't think it's just

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Speaker 1: or right. But you know, when the downside is nuclear war,

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Speaker 1: then this is one that the international community had already

431
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: accepted and has no reason to quote unquote backtrack on it,

432
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 1: especially in a bitter negotiation. I just want to emphasize

433
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,919
Speaker 1: that again. Ye, this is not supposed to make anybody happy.

434
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 1: This is supposed to avoid nuclear confrontation. So let's say

435
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 1: that there are many many problems. The spirit of it, though, is,

436
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 1: hey guys, let's try and settle this before millions of

437
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 1: people die and we possibly have nuclear armagedon. And for this,

438
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: Crystal he was vilified by the Ukrainians to a degree

439
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,479
Speaker 1: which frankly I find repulsive. Let's put this up there

440
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 1: on the screen. Ukrainian ambassador to Germany responded immediately. The

441
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 1: only outcome that now is that now no Ukrainian will

442
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:46,479
Speaker 1: ever buy your fucking Tesla crap. So good luck to you, Elon,

443
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 1: and he also says, quote fuck off is my very

444
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 1: diplomatic reply to you now, First of all, you're a

445
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 1: Ukrainian ambassador to Germany. You should probably direct that ire

446
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 1: to the largest country in Europe, which is only given

447
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 1: you point two to three billion dollars in aid. And

448
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 1: yet you're savaging a person who literally provided you free

449
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,919
Speaker 1: internet and enabled your country to mobilize against Russia in

450
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 1: the Battle of Kiev by providing you his infrastructure through

451
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 1: his own good will. Nobody said Elon had to give

452
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: you free internet. He actually did. And let's even take

453
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: the all of that out of it. If the Ukrainians

454
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: are going to suggest that anybody who proposes any sort

455
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 1: of bitter piece is pro Russia, then they are manipulating

456
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 1: our own domestic politics in terms of trying to advocate

457
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 1: for something that may be in our interest and maybe

458
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: contract to their most maximalist interests. And Zelensky also jumped in,

459
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,120
Speaker 1: So let's go and put this next part up there

460
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 1: on the screen. And this is actually the one I

461
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 1: found the worst. He tweets quote which Elon Musk do

462
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 1: you like more? One who supports Ukraine or one who

463
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 1: supports Russia. Saying that you want a bitter diplomatic solution

464
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: is not supporting Russia. What did we have what did

465
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 1: we just spend an entire thing doing? Be like, the

466
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 1: Russians are irresponsible. Their brinksmanship, nuclear saber rattling is threatening

467
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 1: global security and millions of people. That it's not to

468
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 1: say that you don't that you support them in order

469
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 1: to try and deal in exactly what you said earlier,

470
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 1: with the reality that these crazy people also do have

471
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons and the ability to wipe us off the

472
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 1: face of the globe, and in that face, we must

473
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 1: at times do things that are terrible. You know, I

474
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 1: was thinking a lot about the Cuban missile crisis, and

475
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people forget this. There was

476
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,479
Speaker 1: a quid pro quo in the Cuban missile crisis. We

477
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 1: gave up juper missiles in Turkey. Not a lot of

478
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: people know that because not a lot of people know

479
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,120
Speaker 1: that because it wasn't really declassified until forty years later.

480
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,479
Speaker 1: But here's the truth, folks. They took those missiles out

481
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: of Cuba, and then a little bit while later, as

482
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: we communicated to Khrushchev and said, look, we can't say

483
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: this publicly, but behind the scenes, those missiles they're gone.

484
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 1: I mean, is that appeasement? Did John F. Kennedy, whose father,

485
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 1: by the way, is were the chief appeaser, who himself

486
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 1: advocated for war with Hitler and the Nazi regime, wrote

487
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 1: a famous book, did he you know, quote unquote learn

488
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: and repeat Tamberlain's mistake by avoiding nuclear war? No. I

489
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 1: mean that's the reality. And because and I think this,

490
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: I've been really thinking this. Kennedy lost his brother in

491
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 1: World War Two, Joseph P. Kennedy, the second was blown

492
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 1: up over England. Kennedy himself suffered horrific back injurgy, back injury.

493
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 1: He had men who died in his arms. After PT

494
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 1: one oh nine, he understood the reality of actual war.

495
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: And I think that the people who are saber rattling

496
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: and talking online about oh, I'd be happy to go

497
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: and to die, you know if I had to, You

498
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: have no idea what it means. I mean, you know,

499
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 1: Dan Carlin said this on this podcast. I think it's

500
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 1: so important, which is that whenever you're tuckle decades removed

501
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: from conflicts, you like to look at things in macro trends.

502
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 1: You're like well, and he specifically said this in his

503
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: Mongol episode where he said, look, you know now, seven

504
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 1: hundred years later, we're like, wow, but when the Mongols

505
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 1: conquered China, it united them all under one thing, and

506
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 1: then there was a global currency and that was awesome

507
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 1: for global trade. And he's like yeah, but you know,

508
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 1: like ten million people died. And he's like and we

509
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: all just kind of forget that. You can't just you

510
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 1: can't just you know, move on past the mountain of

511
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 1: skulls that somebody literally saw and the ground that was

512
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: so wet with human fat that it was like muddy

513
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 1: for months. This is real, This is real, okay, And

514
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 1: so it's like, well, yeah, I mean it's true, Jengis

515
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: Khan and the Mongol Empire created a current, the first

516
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: currency union and paper currency, but you know a lot

517
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 1: of people had to die in order for that to happen.

518
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 1: I think that we are almost just so removed from

519
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 1: what the reality of conflict is crystal that we are

520
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 1: getting to this point where we have unhinged discourse and

521
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: we have the inner ability to assess our own interest

522
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 1: in this conflict. Yeah. I mean, even like Elon's Twitter

523
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: diplomacy here is kind of a sign of that that

524
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 1: this all just to so many people, it just feels

525
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,439
Speaker 1: like a game. It feels like something you can like

526
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 1: put it on a Twitter pull on and like come

527
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 1: to some sort of a like crowdfunded consensus rather than

528
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: the reality of what this is. And then I almost

529
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 1: really I don't blame the Ukrainians for the response. I

530
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: really blame the US for the Ukrainian response because we

531
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 1: have allowed them to imagine that they could achieve this

532
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 1: maximalist end. I mean, that's that's a reality. If we

533
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: had put pressure on them from the beginning of like, no,

534
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: there's going to be a ceasefire, No, we're going to

535
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,239
Speaker 1: have a piece deal. No, you are going to have

536
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,359
Speaker 1: to give up some of your territory. Their language would

537
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 1: be a lot different here, and ultimately, you know, this

538
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: sort of maximalist idea of we're going to reclaim all

539
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,679
Speaker 1: of the territory, which you know is unlikely to be

540
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,120
Speaker 1: the outcome ultimately, if this war is ever going to end.

541
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 1: This also creates an obstacle with the Ukrainian people to

542
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 1: peace because then when you know, if Zelenski ever did

543
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: sit down at a negotiating table and you have to

544
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 1: make these sorts of bitter, hard, terrible concessions, well, the

545
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: population is going to say, what the hell, you told

546
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:17,959
Speaker 1: us we were going to have it all back. You know,

547
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 1: this isn't something that we can stomach. This isn't something

548
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 1: that we can you know that we can that we

549
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: can ultimately accept. So I really sort of blame the

550
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 1: US posture here of pretending like we're hands off, like

551
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 1: we're just letting the Ukrainians do their thing, when in reality,

552
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians are doing exactly what we want them to

553
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 1: do in terms of continuing this war indefinitely. And listen,

554
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: and I always put the caveats on here. It's not

555
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: like Putin is in. He has created so many barriers

556
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 1: to ever being able to get to a cease fire,

557
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: let alone some sort of negotiated piece. There is no

558
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: doubt about it. I mean, at this moment, the idea

559
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 1: of any sort of like working out a peace deal.

560
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: And I think this is part of why Elon was

561
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: mocked as well. It seems propose fosters. I don't deny

562
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: that whatsoever, given the actions that the Russian State has

563
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: just taken here, but ultimately you're going to have to

564
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: find a way to get to that place so that

565
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: this doesn't continue indefinitely and continue to risk escalation and

566
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 1: ultimately nuclear war. I mean, there's just no other way

567
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: to say this. The longer this goes on, the more

568
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 1: likely we are to have some sort of nuclear weapon deployed.

569
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 1: That's just reality. So we can all do everything we can,

570
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 1: even if it seems as a long shot, to try

571
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 1: to push for that negotiated settlement and that ceasefire to

572
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: be put into place, or we can just like sort

573
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: of close our eyes and hope for the best, which

574
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: is basically what we've been doing up to this point.

575
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: I've been thinking long and hard about this one, and

576
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 1: I think I realize why our the way that we

577
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 1: speak is just so contrary to how a lot of

578
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 1: other people think about this conflict. Because I think that

579
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: you and I are coming at this and have from

580
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: the beginning with a dispassionate view of what is in

581
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: America's interests, and the foreign policy elite does not care

582
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: about America's interes trists, or they do, but they are

583
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: willing to subordinate them to a point and risk them

584
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: while supporting Ukrainian interests. And I think that their ability

585
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 1: to compartmentalize this is the disconnect. Because I think we

586
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 1: have to acknowledge a couple of basic things which the

587
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: honest Hawks will say, which is that here's the truth Ukrainius.

588
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: Ukraine's most maximalist aims are actually contrary to the interests

589
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: of the United States. Might be crazy to think, but

590
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 1: Ukraine's most maximalist aim is to recover crimea well that

591
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 1: would almost certainly push us into an outright war with Russia.

592
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: So at a certain point on the line things cross

593
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: where Ukraine's interests are here and America's interests are here,

594
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 1: they diverge. The difference is that they are willing to

595
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 1: push things all the way up until that line before

596
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 1: we have some sort of attempted negotiated conflict. What you

597
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 1: and I are saying is that the risk of getting

598
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 1: to that line is so high and increases so incrementally

599
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: that we are willing to pull the plug quote unquote

600
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: and try and force negotiation right now rather than ever

601
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 1: get to the point where we have armageddon in the

602
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 1: first place. And the only way that I can reconcile

603
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 1: why somebody would be willing to do that is if

604
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: they care so much about the security of Ukraine, like

605
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: in the longest term, I actually don't. I read it

606
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 1: a little bit differently. I actually think it comes from

607
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: arrogance and hubris of the top, the type that we've

608
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: seen routinely from the foreign policy establishment, I mean in

609
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 1: our lifetime, but also for generations before we came along.

610
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 1: I mean, they thought they could go in and remake

611
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 1: the Middle East. They thought they could go into Afghanistan

612
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 1: and prop up this government. I mean, how to that workout?

613
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 1: They thought that they could make turn a rock into

614
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: a democracy and you know, not really and disband the

615
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 1: army and that this was all go fine. I mean

616
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: the level of hubris that has been demonstrated by the

617
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: foreign policy establishment and cheered on by a military industrial

618
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: complex that of course profits off of each and every

619
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 1: one of these conflicts. I really think that is the driving,

620
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 1: the flawed thinking that has led us to ultimately this place.

621
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 1: And you know, they they said pretty clearly at the start,

622
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: like Putin has to go. I mean, they effectively came

623
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 1: out and said, our policy here is regime change. Think

624
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: of the arrogance of that. Think of the hubris of that.

625
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 1: Given everything that we've learned, and again, I mean sometimes

626
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 1: I feel like we're repeating ourselves, but I also feel

627
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 1: like we kind of have to repeat ourselves. You don't

628
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: know what comes after Putin. Let's say you get like

629
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 1: careful what you wish for. Let's say you get your wish.

630
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: Let's say there's a you know, popular vole and Putin

631
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: is pushed down. It's just as likely you get someone

632
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 1: who's more like Ramzan Kadira than that you get, you know,

633
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: a navalny in there. Okay, so, and and the societal

634
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 1: chaos and fallout from such an action is also something

635
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 1: to be very you know, wary of and very concerned about,

636
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: not just for the people in Russia, who we should

637
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 1: care a lot about the ordinary citizens, you know, who

638
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 1: are suffering right now in Russia, but also world stability

639
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 1: and what happens next. And you know what this we're

640
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 1: going to destabilize the nuclear power? Like what are you

641
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 1: thinking about? But I honestly think that's where it comes from.

642
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 1: It's from this arrogance of thinking they can just remake

643
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 1: the world and shape it however they want, and put

644
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: in place the people that they think are going to

645
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 1: be are gonna work better with them and do the

646
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 1: things they wanted to do. Putting himself is a cautionary

647
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: tale there, because he's the guy we wanted in there

648
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 1: because we thought, you know, he'd open the place up

649
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 1: and the way we wanted to Western capital, and you know,

650
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: lo and behold, look it turns out he, you know,

651
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 1: wasn't such a great guy after all, wasn't such a

652
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: great partner after all, because we skipped the building of

653
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: the democratic institutions in favor of pushing the like economic

654
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 1: shock doctrine that we wanted to be able to profit

655
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 1: off of. So to me, that's where the disconnect ultimately

656
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: comes from. And I can't tell you how frustrated I'm

657
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 1: getting just watching this media narrative unfold that says the

658
00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: only the only position you are allowed to take is

659
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: one that says Ukrainian maximal victory. The total absence We're

660
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: going to talk to Bronco Marcetic about this today, The

661
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: total absence of any sort of genuine peace movement that

662
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 1: isn't seeking to take Russia's side or seeking to, you know,

663
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 1: take the Ukrainian side, even though the Ukrainian cause, I mean,

664
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 1: that is the just cause, there is no doubt about it.

665
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,359
Speaker 1: But it's just looking to say, how do we end

666
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 1: this conflict without putting everyone's lives in danger? And I

667
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: even object to the idea that that's like in America's interest. Yes,

668
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,720
Speaker 1: obviously it's in America's interest, it's in the world's interest.

669
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 1: It's ultimately in Ukraine's interests because if there's a nuclear

670
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,319
Speaker 1: weapon deployed and we I mean, they're the ones who

671
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: are going to face the fallout first. So even this

672
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: idea that you know, ultimately there's this big split between

673
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 1: what would be good for the US and what would

674
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 1: be good for the rest of the world, or what

675
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 1: would be good for Ukraine. I think the entire world

676
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 1: has a very invested interest in keeping us from going

677
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:56,919
Speaker 1: ending up at nuclear war. I think it's all well said.

678
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I feel deeply frustrated about it

679
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: as well. Yes, let's go ahead and move on here

680
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 1: and we'll talk about energy because this is something that

681
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: we also have to pay a lot of attention to

682
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 1: and intertwines directly with the war. Some major warnings that

683
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 1: we wanted to bring everyone which could change the strategic situation.

684
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen, which is

685
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 1: that current indications say that Europe could have one of

686
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: the coldest winters on record, warning adding that less wind

687
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: and rain will actually dramatically hit renewable power on the continent,

688
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:32,320
Speaker 1: especially as it tries to wean itself off of Russian gas.

689
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 1: So when you have less wind power and less wind

690
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: and rain, as they're saying here, the European Weather Forecasting

691
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: Agency is saying early indications for November and December are

692
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 1: a period of high pressure over Western Europe which is

693
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 1: likely to bring colder spells, less wind and rainfall, reducing

694
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: the generation of renewable power, of which they were really

695
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 1: banking on, even in its limited capacity to show up

696
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 1: for them as they wean themselves off of natural gas.

697
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 1: And of course the reason why that matters is a

698
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 1: it is going to drive up the price of natural

699
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 1: gas dramatically on the continent right now. They had actually

700
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 1: planned right now and said we should be okay if

701
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 1: things stay standard, because they'd stockpiled enough natural gas. They

702
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 1: paid astronomically high rates to UAE and to others, and

703
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 1: they had secured global stockpiles at the expense by the

704
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 1: way of developing nations like Pakistan, Thailand and many of

705
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 1: these other people who are burning coal like nobody's business

706
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 1: to keep their countries afloat right now. Put that aside,

707
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: so they thought they had enough LNG to get them

708
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: through the winter as long as renewable power showed up

709
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 1: at the traditional rate. However, if you have that lack

710
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: of wind and particular cold, which is going to increase

711
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:42,959
Speaker 1: the amount of heat, that would mean that they don't

712
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 1: actually have enough stockpile, which could force a crisis in

713
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 1: the middle of the winter. They're also pointing to the

714
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 1: fact that the hurricanes that we're seeing in our region

715
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: any sort. The problem is that we don't have a

716
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 1: robust and resilient network right now that is able to

717
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 1: supply the entire globe economy, including the richest nations the

718
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 1: US and Europe, which are willing to pay very very

719
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 1: high rates. But even with that drop and supply and

720
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 1: Europe's own vulnerability right now, they would essentially be forced

721
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 1: to rationing if they did have another major shock, like

722
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: some sort of hurricane, if something takes out a freeport.

723
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: I mean, we had that explosion at the Texas freeport

724
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: just a couple of months ago, took that portalf line

725
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 1: for three months. I mean, the price of gas in

726
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: Europe went up by seventeen hundred percent overnight. So we

727
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: are really one real problem away from an actual crisis.

728
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,399
Speaker 1: And also I would be remiss if I didn't mention

729
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 1: crystal the Nordstream pipeline that just happened. I don't know

730
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,280
Speaker 1: who did it, who sabotaged it, but if it was Russia,

731
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,280
Speaker 1: think they were making it clear that in this scenario,

732
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: we're like, hey, right, you are the most vulnerable. Maybe

733
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: that Norway pipeline just gets snipped and gets blown up

734
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 1: in the middle of this. Oh, we can't prove that

735
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: it was us. And in that scenario, I mean, they're

736
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 1: they're in serious trouble because that is their major supplier

737
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: of natural gas when it will be one of the

738
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 1: only power sources that they have available to them in

739
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 1: the wind. Whether it was Russia or not, there's no

740
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,320
Speaker 1: doubt that Europeans are thinking very hard about that pospisility. Yeah, absolutely,

741
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 1: And I mean this is where so in terms of

742
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 1: the renewable energy situation in Europe, Like, Europe is not

743
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 1: a very sunny place, so solar is in most of

744
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 1: Europe is not a really great solution. And then when

745
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 1: you have, okay, a winter that's going to have less

746
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 1: wind and less rain, that means wind is obviously not

747
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 1: going to be ideal, and hydropower also is going to

748
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 1: take a hit. So this is where it comes back to,

749
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 1: you know, poor decision making regarding nuclear. You know that

750
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 1: has been going on for years and years that left

751
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 1: you know, if you look at Germany in particular, and

752
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 1: their previous chancellor ends up like involved with basically Russian

753
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 1: gas companies. He's the one who pushed forward this idea

754
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: of we're going to move off of nuclear and so

755
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: that really is kind of the most promising renewable energy

756
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: for the European continent and the fact that that hasn't

757
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,800
Speaker 1: been developed or kept online to the extent that it

758
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 1: should have been has really created a massive problem for them.

759
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 1: And at the same time, let's gohead and put this

760
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: next piece up on the screen. There's a lot of

761
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 1: disunity in the EU over exactly what the hell they're

762
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: going to do. And you know, there's a lot of

763
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 1: complicated details here about this, like gas price cap that

764
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 1: they're trying to put on. Basically, the bottom line is,

765
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 1: as we predicted from the beginning, they can't come to

766
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 1: any sort of agreement on how to do this. And

767
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: you know, the other concern here is it's not just

768
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 1: you know, global South countries outside of Europe that are

769
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 1: in a difficult position. It's that the wealthier nations in

770
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: Europe are basically like doing what they need to do

771
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 1: and bidding up at astronomical prices. But there are poorer

772
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 1: nations in Europe that are also like, hey guys, we're

773
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 1: kind of getting screwed here and we're left out, you know,

774
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 1: We're we're left high and dry while you guys are

775
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,359
Speaker 1: making sure that your populations are secure. So it's also

776
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 1: a problem within Europe of how to deal with this.

777
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 1: I completely agree, it really is crazy. And just to

778
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 1: point out the specifics they're talking about, countries like the

779
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 1: Czech Republic, which we've already talked about here, has had

780
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 1: massive energy price skyri and they have the opposition who

781
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,720
Speaker 1: is basically pro Russia or at the very least anti sanction,

782
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: coming out and gaining in the polls as thousands of

783
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 1: people have taken to the streets. And just to be clear,

784
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: I mean, what the European Union is asking is that

785
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 1: the entire block cut power by five percent, which that's

786
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,399
Speaker 1: a hell of a lot of power whenever you rely

787
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,360
Speaker 1: on it, especially for industrial capacity, which is where the

788
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 1: first cuts that we saw in Germany hit the first

789
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: cuts that we saw in France. It's not just households,

790
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 1: it really is industry, which keeps their entire economy going.

791
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 1: And they cannot agree to what the quote unquote price

792
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,400
Speaker 1: cap would be. And at the same time, the Russians

793
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: are like, listen, if you have an actual price cap,

794
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 1: we will stop selling you gas all whatsoever. Yeah, So

795
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: they also can't bank on that because if the Russians

796
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 1: do one percent cut them off and it is a

797
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 1: very cold winter, they're kind of screwed basically, no matter

798
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 1: what I mean, I just think all around, it's a

799
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 1: bad situation. It's possible that they can get themselves out

800
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 1: of it if they are willing to basically pay hundreds

801
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 1: of billions of dollars for as much gas on the

802
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 1: global market as possible. But you know, that kind of

803
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 1: screws us too. I mean that means all of our

804
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 1: energy bills are going to be sky high. We heat

805
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:11,320
Speaker 1: a lot of natural gas in the middle of the

806
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 1: winter in this country. I think it's like forty percent

807
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 1: of or something of our power comes from natural gas.

808
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 1: And worse really is these developing nations. I mean, Pakistan

809
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 1: was trying to buy a five year contract on LNG.

810
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 1: They've been pivoting zeal And g off of coal and

811
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 1: off of other like bio energy. Essentially they can't fill it,

812
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 1: so they're just going coal. I mean, many, many poor

813
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 1: countries all across Asia, with you know, hundreds of millions

814
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 1: of people in their own right are basically not either

815
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: going to have rolling blackouts or they're going to be

816
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:42,240
Speaker 1: burning you know, filthy coal in spelling disputing into the environment.

817
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: And I think at this point that five percent cut

818
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 1: back is basically like the best case scenario. There was

819
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:53,240
Speaker 1: another report from the International Energy Agency, which is based

820
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 1: in Paris, that said if if the EU gets cut

821
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 1: off completely from any Russian gas, they would need to

822
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: cut use by thirteen percent over the winter. And I

823
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 1: don't even know if that takes into account these sort

824
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 1: of like dire new forecasts, And according to them, you know,

825
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 1: that cutback would have to come largely from consumer behavior,

826
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 1: they say, like turning down thermostats, adjusting boiler temperatures, as

827
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:21,439
Speaker 1: well as industrial and utility conservation. So you know, it's

828
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 1: the wealthier countries in Europe obviously are in a better

829
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 1: position to you know, sort of weather this storm ultimately,

830
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: but it's going to be very difficult times. And I

831
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: think you know, we we've talked about this for a

832
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 1: while now. That's why this offensive from Zelensky was so

833
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 1: critical at this point, because you are going to have

834
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 1: populations in Europe that are suffering because of this war,

835
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 1: that are saying, hey, you know, why are we continuing this,

836
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 1: Why don't we push for a negotiated settlement, that get

837
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 1: frustrated with, you know, the continued posture of the of

838
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 1: the West and wanting to push this war forward indefinitely.

839
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: So that's why this is so important to keep an

840
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 1: eye on, both because of the human suffering, but also

841
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 1: because of what it ultimately means for these population support

842
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 1: continued support for the Ukrainian costs. Yeah, at the same time,

843
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:14,399
Speaker 1: we have some gas price news here at home as

844
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 1: well related to this. Let's go ahead and put this

845
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. Oil prices are soon very

846
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: likely returning to one hundred dollars per barrel, as we

847
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: talked about that historic cut that OPEC plus is considering

848
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 1: right now. The reason why it's important to consider OPEC's

849
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 1: decisions is that they have essentially become addicted to the

850
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,839
Speaker 1: price of one hundred dollars per barrel. It is fun

851
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,240
Speaker 1: to I mean, the Saudis are they are throwing parties

852
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 1: in riod. I can't even imagine the amount of money.

853
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 1: You know, I used to live in Katar back when

854
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:50,280
Speaker 1: gas was four or five dollars a gallon. Those people

855
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 1: were rolling in cash like nobody has ever seen before.

856
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 1: One hundred dollars a barrel. And that's you know, when

857
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 1: gas I think it was a similar price around then.

858
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 1: Just the wealth that it generated, even in a short

859
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:05,240
Speaker 1: period that they are printing from this is just unparalleled.

860
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 1: So even though these are supposed allies and all of that,

861
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: they are very committed to the one hundred dollars price

862
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 1: per barrel because it essentially floats their entire not only

863
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 1: their whole economy. It gives them the reserves in order

864
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:19,800
Speaker 1: to last for years and years and years. The royal

865
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 1: family very committed to this, and you know, I mean,

866
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 1: look in the middle of high inflation and more, they're

867
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 1: going to grab whatever profit that they possibly can. On

868
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: top of the fact that our own oil drillers here

869
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,879
Speaker 1: at home are still paying back those investors. That's something

870
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,280
Speaker 1: that we covered many many times well. And also politically,

871
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 1: the Saudis are happy to stick it to Joe Buin. Oh.

872
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 1: They lovement So that's like, you know, a silver lining

873
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 1: for them as well, Like they get to cause gas

874
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 1: prices here to spike and create domestic political troubles for

875
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: a party in a president that they ultimately hate. Right.

876
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 1: And another thing I want to emphasize is that that

877
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 1: so called EU ban on Russian crude oil is actually kicked,

878
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,479
Speaker 1: actually kicking in December. So at the very same time

879
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 1: that OPEC is considered cutting its production in order to

880
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 1: maintain the one hundred dollars barrel price level, you're going

881
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 1: to see an artificial reduction in oil supply from availability

882
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 1: of Russian crew to the European market in December. Those

883
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 1: two things, specifically are what could vault gas prices back

884
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 1: up again on top of weather issues that we already

885
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 1: have here in the US. I touched on this a

886
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 1: little bit yesterday, but I think it's worth teasing out.

887
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:25,840
Speaker 1: And you know, we shouldn't forget our friends out in California.

888
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 1: A huge portion of our audiences in California. Let's go

889
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: ahead and put this up there on the screen. California

890
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,320
Speaker 1: right now is seeing a catastrophic rise in gas prices

891
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:37,040
Speaker 1: California is up fifty five cents a gallon just in

892
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 1: a single week, the entire West Coast, averaging between thirty

893
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 1: to fifty cents all within a week. And actually the

894
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 1: average price of gas right now in California is six

895
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 1: dollars and forty cents a gallon just across the state,

896
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 1: which means, I mean, if you're living in Los Angeles

897
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 1: County or one of these major populated areas or one

898
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 1: of those famous ones, that's like in the middle of

899
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 1: the mountains, you're paying for some seriously high gas. But

900
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 1: put aside just California, State of Washington five dollars and

901
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 1: thirty cents, Oregon five to forty five, Nevada five point fifty,

902
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 1: Arizona four fifty, Alaska five forty. I mean many of

903
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 1: the western states. Idaho is four forty. Everybody is just

904
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 1: getting hammered kind of. As you move over to the

905
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 1: East coast and particularly into the South, you're going to

906
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: have the cheapest availability of gas, obviously because that's close

907
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 1: to the refineries and there's not a lot of cost.

908
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:32,400
Speaker 1: But the reason why I just want to emphasize is

909
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: that the Western United States, for a variety of supply

910
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 1: reasons does not have high inventory of gas. So when

911
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 1: you have very very low inventory and you have high demand,

912
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 1: and you already are seeing a reduction in release from

913
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 1: the SPR and now potential shocks of oil to the

914
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 1: global market, you are just going to be in a

915
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 1: situation where you are paying historically historically high prices. People

916
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 1: sending me messages Crystal from Costco and California being like,

917
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:00,880
Speaker 1: thank you Costco for only six dollars a game. I'm like,

918
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 1: I cannot even wow. Imagine. Yeah, you're in yeah, here

919
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 1: in Virginia. Let's see, we're where So you and I

920
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 1: are in DC right now. But the price in Virginia

921
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:12,400
Speaker 1: where we live is three dollars and thirty cents, So

922
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:15,359
Speaker 1: not nearly as bad as are literally compared to sit

923
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 1: Can you imagine? They're One of the analysts that the

924
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:22,839
Speaker 1: head of petroleum analysis for gas Buddy, which we rely

925
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 1: on that site, says there are a lot of refinery

926
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:27,919
Speaker 1: issues in the West, including six refineries that are either

927
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 1: undergoing planned or unplanned maintenance. That's caused gasoline supply on

928
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 1: the West Coast to drop to its lowest level in

929
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 1: a decade and has caused wholesale guess prices to skyrocket it,

930
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 1: So that's one of the more significant issues that's contributing

931
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 1: to the low inventory there that is causing all of

932
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 1: the problems. But as you said, you know, there's there's

933
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 1: a clear, uh political fallout here as well. Obviously there

934
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 1: are many things going on with their domestic political situation,

935
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,879
Speaker 1: including the Dobb's decision overturning ROVERSUS way that clearly has

936
00:47:57,880 --> 00:47:59,400
Speaker 1: been sort of a pivot point in terms of the

937
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:04,720
Speaker 1: midterm landscape. But if you track gas prices, Biden's approval

938
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 1: rating tracks pretty closely inversely related with gas prices. So

939
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 1: as gas prices went down, Biden's approval started to tick up.

940
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,240
Speaker 1: As gas prices now are going back up low and behold,

941
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 1: democratic prospects of midterms are not looking as rosy as

942
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 1: they did just a short while ago. So I do

943
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 1: think this is one of the most important indicators that

944
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: you could look at in terms of politics as well,

945
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:28,319
Speaker 1: because it has such a hit on people's budgets and

946
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 1: also take such a psychological toll on people when they

947
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 1: see those prices going up and up and up, and

948
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 1: they wonder, you know, they're increasing, like where is it

949
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 1: going to stop? How am I going to be able

950
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 1: to deal with this? How am I going to be

951
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: able to afford to get to work? How am I

952
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 1: going to be able to afford to put gas in

953
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 1: the car and still put groceries on the table. So

954
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,799
Speaker 1: it is a major, like reality issue, and it is

955
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 1: also a major political issue for the party in power. Yeah,

956
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,719
Speaker 1: I completely agree. And look it's just in general, no

957
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,800
Speaker 1: matter who you want to blame to deny the effect

958
00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 1: I think is crazy. Yeah. The look Joe Biden in

959
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 1: a way, he kind of peaked too early. He had

960
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 1: lower gas prices and dobbs in June, and now this

961
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,160
Speaker 1: is the timing. We have a reams of statistical evidence

962
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:12,279
Speaker 1: to say nobody cares about elections until nobody even cares

963
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: about presidential elections until three weeks before, which is nuts

964
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 1: for us in the political Yes you were, yeah, right,

965
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 1: We're here two years out and advance, most people are

966
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:22,399
Speaker 1: going about their lives, and then three weeks before like yeah,

967
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 1: no vote for like maybe this guy, maybe that guy

968
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 1: on mid terms. It some evidence actually shows people don't

969
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 1: really care until a week before. So whatever that week

970
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:35,520
Speaker 1: environment is. I mean, remember like those late effects of

971
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 1: like the Komi letter that the Hillary people like to

972
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 1: blame or before that, you know, Hurricane Sandy, whenever Obama

973
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 1: came and gave Chris Christy hugs are so mad? Or look,

974
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,240
Speaker 1: I mean, are we going to deny that the crash

975
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 1: of two thousand and eight, which happened days before the

976
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 1: I mean, the fallout of the crash, didn't have a

977
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,320
Speaker 1: massive impact in the election. I mean, I think in

978
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 1: both the reltigate all these things. But Obama was going

979
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 1: to win that election anyway. But that makes yeah, exactly,

980
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: And I think the same thing with like the Romney situation.

981
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:07,400
Speaker 1: Who's probably going to win that election anyway, but the

982
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,839
Speaker 1: hug and the Sandy situation probably just like doesn't put

983
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 1: it over the top. Yeah, anyway, we won't relitigate every election.

984
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 1: And on the other hand, we're going to get to

985
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 1: the midterms here in a minute, and Republicans are doing

986
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 1: everything they can to try to snatch de feet from

987
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 1: the jaws of victory, so they'll break all of that

988
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 1: down for you in a moment. It's just, I mean,

989
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 1: it continues to be the case that when you look

990
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 1: at the macros, you're like, oh my god, Democrats are

991
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:32,200
Speaker 1: going to get pummeled, And then you dig into these

992
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 1: races herschel Walker, I'm looking at you, and it's like,

993
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 1: maybe they're gonna actually hold on. I don't know. Let's

994
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 1: talk a little bit more about the economy, because the

995
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 1: spells more sort of democratic woes in terms of some

996
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:50,799
Speaker 1: of the shifts that are happening right now. First of all,

997
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 1: we have been taking a close look at the housing market.

998
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 1: Soccer did a fantastic monologue on that yesterday, and there's

999
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 1: new news there which again was kind of a predictable

1000
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 1: outcome of the federal reserve policy. Let's go ahead and

1001
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen from the Wall Street Journal.

1002
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 1: They say homebuilders are offering to sell homes in bulk

1003
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 1: at discount to investors as mortgage rates hit a fifteen

1004
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:15,279
Speaker 1: year high and individual buyers back away. Builders look to

1005
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 1: unload both planned and completed homes. So we really at

1006
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 1: this point have a worst of all worlds in terms

1007
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:28,839
Speaker 1: of regular people and the housing market. So prices like

1008
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 1: sticker prices have come down somewhat on houses, but that

1009
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,960
Speaker 1: has been coupled with such a massive spike in mortgage

1010
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:41,400
Speaker 1: rates that these homes are wildly less affordable than they

1011
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 1: used to be. And I do encourage you to go through.

1012
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 1: Listen to Zager's monologue yesterday, because he goes through some

1013
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 1: of the numbers, it's hard to wrap your head around

1014
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:50,919
Speaker 1: just how much of a difference it makes in terms

1015
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:53,359
Speaker 1: of your monthly mortgage costs. The difference between you know,

1016
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 1: a three percent mortgage rate and a seven percent mortgage

1017
00:51:56,520 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 1: rate like doubles the amount that you're paying month. So

1018
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 1: this has put these houses wildly out of reach of

1019
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 1: most American regular consumers. So at the same time, you

1020
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,279
Speaker 1: have these homebuilders who were starting to like ramp up

1021
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 1: before the FED started at hike interust rates starting to

1022
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:15,360
Speaker 1: ramp up or building, which is something we really desperately

1023
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 1: need because we are short in terms of housing stock,

1024
00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 1: and now their cost to finance these projects are going up.

1025
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:25,240
Speaker 1: They don't have the individual buyers because they can't afford

1026
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 1: the mortgage interest rates as they are now, so they're

1027
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 1: pulling back from these projects. And then the inventory that

1028
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 1: they already have since they can't get individual buyers because

1029
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 1: the mortgage rates, they're offloading them at a discount, oftentimes

1030
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 1: to these companies that want to buy up a bunch

1031
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 1: of single family homes and then rent them to you

1032
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:46,400
Speaker 1: at a profit, so they want to be like America's landlord.

1033
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 1: This is again something we have sort of been predicting

1034
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:52,480
Speaker 1: from the beginning. The only people this market is good

1035
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 1: for is those who have massive amounts of cash or

1036
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:59,000
Speaker 1: ability to get you know, financing at decent rates, who

1037
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 1: can snatch up all of these houses, and they're saying

1038
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 1: they're selling them for fifteen and twenty percent discounts, so

1039
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 1: they're getting a great deal to be able to profit

1040
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:10,959
Speaker 1: in the future. So if you're a renter, you're getting

1041
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,360
Speaker 1: screwed because rents are going up. If you're a homeowner,

1042
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:15,799
Speaker 1: you're getting screwed because prices are going down, and with

1043
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 1: mortgage rates so high, if you want to move, you

1044
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:20,400
Speaker 1: can't because you're terrified of what that mortgage interest rate

1045
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:22,360
Speaker 1: is going to be. If you're a perspective buyer, you

1046
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 1: can forget about it because of the mortgage interest rates. Really,

1047
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 1: the only ones that benefit from this are permanent capital.

1048
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: Yet again, other piece that I wanted to point to

1049
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: here just to underscore the part about how home prices

1050
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 1: are falling, just not the affordability of homes. Let's put

1051
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 1: this next peace from Blueberg up on the screen. This

1052
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 1: is kind of a scary headline. US home price is

1053
00:53:45,120 --> 00:53:48,319
Speaker 1: now posting biggest monthly drops since two thousand and nine.

1054
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:50,800
Speaker 1: What was going on in two thousand and nine. Cities

1055
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 1: facing steepest corrections include San Francisco. Inventory levels stayed relatively flat,

1056
00:53:56,520 --> 00:54:00,839
Speaker 1: according to one data provider. So you are seeing home

1057
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 1: prices pulled back, which, of course you know, if you're

1058
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,279
Speaker 1: a homeowner and you see your value of your home

1059
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:07,399
Speaker 1: go down, it means your overall wealth is going down.

1060
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 1: They're stuck in their homes if they want to move

1061
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:11,680
Speaker 1: because of these mortgage rates being so high, and people

1062
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 1: can't buy in now because it is so unaffordable. It

1063
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:16,440
Speaker 1: really is a worst of all world situation. And to

1064
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 1: underscore what I said yesterday, yeah you can cheer, but

1065
00:54:19,200 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 1: the home price index only fill yer point nine eight percent. Yeah,

1066
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 1: so if the home price fit so home price goes

1067
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 1: down one percent, a mortgage rate goes up one hundred percent,

1068
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 1: who's coming out on top? Are you going to be

1069
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 1: able to afford a house? This is why all this

1070
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 1: cheer like I just fundamentally do not believe. Just also

1071
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:38,400
Speaker 1: from an like literal equity perspective, I don't mean in

1072
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 1: like the diverse sense that the US government will ever

1073
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 1: let houses drop, housing prices drop by more than like

1074
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:47,240
Speaker 1: twenty percent homes any would just homeowners are too powerful, exactly.

1075
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:49,319
Speaker 1: They're the most powerful people in the world. Like they

1076
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:51,439
Speaker 1: have more all the money, you know, t one third

1077
00:54:51,560 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 1: or something. I think of the cash. Some sixty eight

1078
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 1: percent of Americans have at least some home equity, disproportionately

1079
00:54:57,600 --> 00:55:01,880
Speaker 1: higher amongst elder folks. I'm certain that if those people

1080
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 1: are at that affected, that something will happen. So my

1081
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 1: point is is that you can't for you to wish

1082
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:11,319
Speaker 1: that the price keeps going down to be equal to

1083
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,719
Speaker 1: the increase in your average monthly mortgage, you would have

1084
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 1: to wish for essentially a fifty percent or almost one

1085
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 1: hundred percent reduction. That's just not going to happen. So

1086
00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:21,200
Speaker 1: my point is, it's like, Okay, let's say they slide

1087
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 1: ten again, You're still out of a hell of a

1088
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 1: lot of money if you're still trying to afford something.

1089
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 1: And the other problem is this will be the situation

1090
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:33,520
Speaker 1: for years to come. Already, the FED is like, we

1091
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 1: are not even considering lowering rate til twenty twenty four.

1092
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: We're not even considerate for another year and a half

1093
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:41,719
Speaker 1: or so, and then let's say they do lower it

1094
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 1: by a point, you know, of one hundred basis points.

1095
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 1: So I'm like that, you're still way higher than you

1096
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 1: were previously. Now. I think there's a lot of critiques

1097
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:51,440
Speaker 1: of a zero interest rate environment. I think, you know,

1098
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:55,320
Speaker 1: bubbles and so many assets, et cetera. But the point

1099
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 1: is not to punish the people who won't be as

1100
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 1: effect and who didn't accumulate tens of billions of dollars

1101
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:06,399
Speaker 1: of wealth during that interim period. They were just kind

1102
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:08,400
Speaker 1: of skating by, you know, writing a little bit of

1103
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:10,799
Speaker 1: the benefit, but they weren't reaping nearly as much of

1104
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 1: the benefit as everybody else. You have to have some

1105
00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:15,920
Speaker 1: sort of rebalancing. Yeah, that happens. I mean, this situation

1106
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 1: with housing being so unaffordable, I mean that it really

1107
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 1: is kind of a powder keg because this is a

1108
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 1: crucial part of This is the way you build stable

1109
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:28,080
Speaker 1: middle class wealth for yourself and for your kids for

1110
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:30,840
Speaker 1: the future. It'd be great if there were other pathways,

1111
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 1: but this is basically the pathway, and you are for effectively,

1112
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:37,400
Speaker 1: you know, now two generations Monials and gen Z shutting

1113
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:41,400
Speaker 1: that off that's that is a powder keg kind of environment.

1114
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 1: It's not only a problem here, it's a problem overseas

1115
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:45,839
Speaker 1: as well in a lot of other places. It's part

1116
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 1: of what's going on in the UK right now as well.

1117
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:51,720
Speaker 1: But you know, I don't think I really had looked

1118
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 1: closely at the numbers before of just how quickly things

1119
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:59,399
Speaker 1: become unaffordable with mortgage prices going up, right, And so

1120
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 1: I thought about it. I really, you know, I always

1121
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:03,759
Speaker 1: looked at housing prices in terms of like, oh, what

1122
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 1: is the actual cause three hundred thousand and four one

1123
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 1: thousand whatever, But it really has so much more to

1124
00:57:08,719 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 1: do with what that mortgage interest rate is that you

1125
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:14,760
Speaker 1: were able to lock in, and what your monthly payment

1126
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 1: then is going to be, whether you can afford it

1127
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 1: or not. So that has been a lesson for me

1128
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:22,480
Speaker 1: throughout all of this, that the price really has very

1129
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:25,800
Speaker 1: little to do ultimately with how affordable the housing stock is.

1130
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:27,520
Speaker 1: And there are a lot of metrics that say, basically,

1131
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:31,240
Speaker 1: housing has never been less affordable for your average American

1132
00:57:31,640 --> 00:57:34,800
Speaker 1: than it is now. That is an absolute disaster. And

1133
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 1: I think it's really important to underscore this was the intent,

1134
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 1: Like this was the fed's intent was to cause exactly

1135
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 1: this situation and to try to effectively crash the housing market.

1136
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 1: But again, if part of your issue here is a

1137
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 1: supply issue, by increasing the rates, and that's what this

1138
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 1: Wall Street journal piece really points out, you're also causing

1139
00:57:56,920 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 1: additional supply issues, so exactly the problem that spiked inflation

1140
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:05,000
Speaker 1: to start with, you're actually exacerbating by increasing these rates

1141
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:08,280
Speaker 1: as well. So it's an ugly situation. I want to

1142
00:58:08,320 --> 00:58:10,080
Speaker 1: get to the other piece of this, which you know,

1143
00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 1: the other goal of FED policy was basically to like

1144
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:17,160
Speaker 1: lower wages and slow down the labor market. You know,

1145
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 1: there was lots of angst in the corporate world about

1146
00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:21,720
Speaker 1: the quote unquote tight labor market. Let's go ahead and

1147
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:23,439
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. It looks like those

1148
00:58:23,440 --> 00:58:26,080
Speaker 1: policies are just starting to bite. They say. This is

1149
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 1: from the New York Times. Less turnover, smaller raises, hot

1150
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 1: job market might be losing its sizzle. Unemployment is still

1151
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 1: low and hiring a strong, but there are signs the

1152
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 1: frenzied turnover and rapid wage growth are abating. Let me

1153
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: read you a few of the facts that they have

1154
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:45,800
Speaker 1: in here. They say Americans in July quit their jobs

1155
00:58:45,880 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 1: at the lowest rate in more than a year. That's

1156
00:58:48,280 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 1: a sign that the period known as the Great Resignation

1157
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:53,880
Speaker 1: might be nearing its end. Wage growth, which soared as

1158
00:58:53,920 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 1: companies competed for workers, has also slowed, particularly in industries

1159
00:58:57,360 --> 00:58:59,680
Speaker 1: like dining and travel, where the job market was particularly

1160
00:58:59,720 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 1: hot last year. Now, one clarification on that point, what

1161
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:07,200
Speaker 1: they call nominal wages, Yeah, those grew, they did not

1162
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:10,800
Speaker 1: grow as fast as inflation did. So on a real level,

1163
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,360
Speaker 1: in terms of what you're able to buy, wages have

1164
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:15,960
Speaker 1: been going down. I think it's really important to keep

1165
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 1: that in mind. But even that nominal wage growth is

1166
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:22,439
Speaker 1: now slowing. You have them saying that more broadly, many

1167
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:25,480
Speaker 1: companies around the country saying they're finding it less artuous

1168
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 1: to attract and retain employees. Many are pairing their hiring plans,

1169
00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:31,600
Speaker 1: partly because the pool of available workers has grown as

1170
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:35,000
Speaker 1: more people come up the economy's sidelines. And then you have,

1171
00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 1: you know, some companies being a little bit too direct

1172
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:43,520
Speaker 1: here and basically cheering for this situation, and companies being

1173
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:45,439
Speaker 1: able to gain what they call the upper hand. Again,

1174
00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:48,840
Speaker 1: this is the chief financial officer at Expedia who told

1175
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 1: investors quote not that I wish ill on any people

1176
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 1: out there from a layoff perspective or whatever else, but

1177
00:59:54,600 --> 00:59:57,200
Speaker 1: I think there could be an opportunity for us to

1178
00:59:57,320 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 1: ramp some of that hiring over the coming months. You

1179
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:03,760
Speaker 1: had another chief economist. That's that recruiters say, workers and

1180
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:06,000
Speaker 1: job seekers are feeling just a little bit less bold,

1181
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: a little more concerned about the future availability of jobs,

1182
01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:10,720
Speaker 1: a little bit more concerned about the stability of their

1183
01:00:10,760 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 1: own jobs. All of this, again is the goal of

1184
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:16,800
Speaker 1: the FED and also will you know, make it much

1185
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:19,160
Speaker 1: more difficult for the grossroots labor movement that we have

1186
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:22,760
Speaker 1: covered in depth here to continue to notch gains and

1187
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 1: organize new workplaces as they've been doing. Yeah. No, I

1188
01:00:25,480 --> 01:00:28,360
Speaker 1: think that's correct, Chris. Unfortunately, which is that the tightening

1189
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 1: of the labor market that we have or so yeah,

1190
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:33,040
Speaker 1: the tightening that we had which enabled some of this

1191
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 1: is just getting eroded, which is the explicit goal of

1192
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:39,360
Speaker 1: raising interest rates, of increasing unemployment. And I just see

1193
01:00:39,360 --> 01:00:42,640
Speaker 1: a confluence of crazy factors, almost like we had in

1194
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 1: the Great Depression. At that time, we had not only

1195
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:49,360
Speaker 1: chaos here at home and international chaos abroad, including the

1196
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 1: prospect of war annexation and all of that. We also

1197
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 1: had insane fiscal policy by the heads of the four

1198
01:00:56,520 --> 01:01:01,280
Speaker 1: largest central banks, which contributed to prolonging crisis. And I

1199
01:01:01,360 --> 01:01:05,400
Speaker 1: just think that we cannot get away from how ideology

1200
01:01:05,520 --> 01:01:10,320
Speaker 1: in the moment is possibly ruining and accelerating some of

1201
01:01:10,360 --> 01:01:13,240
Speaker 1: these social trends, yeah, which A that we thought were

1202
01:01:13,320 --> 01:01:16,760
Speaker 1: very beneficial and B can reverse really on a dime.

1203
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:20,040
Speaker 1: It doesn't take too long for people to get in

1204
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:22,840
Speaker 1: some desperate straits, you know, having read some histories of

1205
01:01:22,880 --> 01:01:25,640
Speaker 1: the Great Depression, nineteen twenty nine was a great year.

1206
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:28,680
Speaker 1: By nineteen thirty three, you had Hooverville's you had debt

1207
01:01:28,720 --> 01:01:31,919
Speaker 1: collectors being shot in the middle of cornfields, you had

1208
01:01:32,160 --> 01:01:36,680
Speaker 1: literal uprisings where people would hold hostage, you know, foreclosure events,

1209
01:01:37,000 --> 01:01:41,680
Speaker 1: near communist revolutions. Like it got real bad, real quick.

1210
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 1: And I just don't think that people can underestimate like

1211
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:48,560
Speaker 1: how quickly this you know, veneer of our economy, Like

1212
01:01:48,680 --> 01:01:50,480
Speaker 1: we got a taste of it in two thousand and eight,

1213
01:01:50,720 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 1: but it's it could be so much worse, especially when

1214
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:55,880
Speaker 1: you add global conflagration off on time. That is so true,

1215
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:57,760
Speaker 1: and by the way, it's not We're not the only

1216
01:01:57,760 --> 01:02:00,360
Speaker 1: ones who are sounding the alarm here. The US is

1217
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:04,040
Speaker 1: now saying, hey, yo, slow your roll here, guys, let's

1218
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 1: go and put this up on the screen. The UN

1219
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:09,080
Speaker 1: is calling on the FED and other central banks to

1220
01:02:09,280 --> 01:02:14,080
Speaker 1: halt interest rate increases. A UN agency warns further policy

1221
01:02:14,160 --> 01:02:19,120
Speaker 1: tightening risk a global economic downturn. And the really important

1222
01:02:19,160 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 1: thing to understand here is that it's not just the

1223
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 1: FED tightening. You have wealthy economy central banks around the

1224
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:30,920
Speaker 1: world that are tightening at the same time. These effects

1225
01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 1: can compound very quickly. There is a lag between when

1226
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:38,720
Speaker 1: interest rates are hiked and when you see the fallout economically.

1227
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:42,160
Speaker 1: So in the same way that we had this massive

1228
01:02:42,160 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 1: supply chain shock because of the pandemic and also exacerbated

1229
01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:49,040
Speaker 1: by the war in Ukraine, they're saying, all of these

1230
01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:54,400
Speaker 1: banks tightening at once could have a similar compounding disastrous

1231
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:58,120
Speaker 1: fallout effect that you know, first and foremost is going

1232
01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 1: to devastate the global South and poor countries. But you know,

1233
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 1: we're all connected here, so it's not like we're insulated

1234
01:03:04,560 --> 01:03:08,840
Speaker 1: from the fallout from global economic turmoil. One of the

1235
01:03:08,880 --> 01:03:11,200
Speaker 1: things one of the quotes here that you have from

1236
01:03:11,600 --> 01:03:13,800
Speaker 1: the guy who was in charge of the team that

1237
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:16,280
Speaker 1: wrote the report. He says, do you try to solve

1238
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 1: a supply side problem with a demand side solution? We

1239
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 1: think that's a very dangerous approach. Now to take that

1240
01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:26,440
Speaker 1: out of like econ speak here. You know, the reason

1241
01:03:26,480 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 1: we ended up with this inflation was all of these

1242
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:32,520
Speaker 1: supply shocks. Raising interest rates doesn't deal with that whatsoever.

1243
01:03:32,920 --> 01:03:34,919
Speaker 1: This is something you know, Elizabeth Warren, to her credit,

1244
01:03:34,960 --> 01:03:37,959
Speaker 1: when she asked her own pal like, heyes, raising interest rates?

1245
01:03:38,040 --> 01:03:40,720
Speaker 1: Is that gonna help with gas prices? He's like, no,

1246
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:44,920
Speaker 1: is that gonna help with food prices and supplies? You know, So,

1247
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:48,760
Speaker 1: then what's the point of the policy? Ultimately? You know,

1248
01:03:48,800 --> 01:03:51,080
Speaker 1: that's what they're pointing to here as well. They say,

1249
01:03:51,480 --> 01:03:54,520
Speaker 1: rather than increase rates, which will do little to shortages

1250
01:03:54,520 --> 01:03:57,320
Speaker 1: of energy and food, policymakers should focus on measures that

1251
01:03:57,400 --> 01:04:01,160
Speaker 1: target price spikes directly, including price caps funded by one

1252
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:04,400
Speaker 1: off taxes on the unusually large profits being made by

1253
01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:09,360
Speaker 1: many energy companies. So that is the you know, there's

1254
01:04:09,360 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 1: a particular issue here that we covered when we were

1255
01:04:12,040 --> 01:04:14,400
Speaker 1: talking about how the dollar is so strong releless to

1256
01:04:14,640 --> 01:04:18,560
Speaker 1: every currency around the world. This really can trigger sort

1257
01:04:18,600 --> 01:04:21,120
Speaker 1: of cascading effects, especially for poor nations that have a

1258
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:24,320
Speaker 1: lot of debt that is dollar denominated in a lot

1259
01:04:24,320 --> 01:04:26,800
Speaker 1: of ways. Because our currency is so strong and there's

1260
01:04:26,840 --> 01:04:29,920
Speaker 1: a week that means their imports are much more expensive

1261
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:32,080
Speaker 1: for them. That fuels their inflation, that makes it more

1262
01:04:32,080 --> 01:04:34,560
Speaker 1: difficult for them to service their debts, and can trigger

1263
01:04:34,600 --> 01:04:38,960
Speaker 1: these cascading effects that lead to the global severe recession

1264
01:04:38,960 --> 01:04:40,960
Speaker 1: that the UN is warning about here. Yeah, I mean

1265
01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:43,600
Speaker 1: it's pretty interesting in order to watch it all play out.

1266
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:46,240
Speaker 1: I think the UN warning will probably fall on deaf ears.

1267
01:04:46,280 --> 01:04:49,000
Speaker 1: All of the European banks are all signaling they're only

1268
01:04:49,040 --> 01:04:52,000
Speaker 1: going to continue to hike, including us. All eyes on

1269
01:04:52,040 --> 01:04:55,480
Speaker 1: the next inflation report. I don't think that. I think

1270
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:57,000
Speaker 1: it's still going to be bad, and I'll tell you

1271
01:04:57,200 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 1: it's the same reason that it was bad last month.

1272
01:04:59,320 --> 01:05:02,680
Speaker 1: You can have gas prices already have flatlined and are

1273
01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:04,360
Speaker 1: now starting to go up, so that's not going to

1274
01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:07,480
Speaker 1: benefit the inflation top line. And guess what. Shelter prices

1275
01:05:07,560 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 1: take six to eight months to lag in an economy,

1276
01:05:09,880 --> 01:05:12,200
Speaker 1: and I think they're just going to continue to go up,

1277
01:05:12,200 --> 01:05:14,240
Speaker 1: which means that the top line number is going to

1278
01:05:14,240 --> 01:05:16,040
Speaker 1: be high and it's not like food has gotten a

1279
01:05:16,080 --> 01:05:18,400
Speaker 1: lot of cheap, has gotten cheaper. Anybody who's been to

1280
01:05:18,440 --> 01:05:21,120
Speaker 1: the grocery store can tell you that. Right now. Yes, indeed,

1281
01:05:21,200 --> 01:05:25,240
Speaker 1: all right, take a look at the domestic political situation,

1282
01:05:25,280 --> 01:05:26,680
Speaker 1: and we're going to bury the lead here a little

1283
01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 1: bit because we're going to start with Nevada, which is

1284
01:05:28,440 --> 01:05:31,480
Speaker 1: a state that I think we haven't covered enough. Very

1285
01:05:31,520 --> 01:05:35,640
Speaker 1: interesting political dynamics there, but I think the candidates maybe

1286
01:05:35,640 --> 01:05:38,600
Speaker 1: are a little bit less colorful, is why we and

1287
01:05:38,920 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 1: a lot of media hasn't dug into this race as much.

1288
01:05:41,480 --> 01:05:43,200
Speaker 1: But let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.

1289
01:05:43,520 --> 01:05:45,400
Speaker 1: It's a good article from the New York Times. They

1290
01:05:45,400 --> 01:05:50,640
Speaker 1: said democrats troubles in Nevada are a microcosm of nationwide headwinds.

1291
01:05:50,680 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 1: Inflation and a rocky economy are bolstering Republicans in the

1292
01:05:54,720 --> 01:05:58,800
Speaker 1: races against incumbent Democrats, motivating an electorate that simply once change,

1293
01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 1: as one GOP consultant says, So we're looking in particular

1294
01:06:03,760 --> 01:06:06,560
Speaker 1: here at the Senate race, but there are other Democratic

1295
01:06:06,640 --> 01:06:09,520
Speaker 1: incumbents in the House and also the governor that are

1296
01:06:09,600 --> 01:06:13,480
Speaker 1: in trouble. In fact, all three of the Democratic representatives

1297
01:06:13,520 --> 01:06:16,760
Speaker 1: in Nevada are actually in danger of losing their elections.

1298
01:06:17,440 --> 01:06:20,200
Speaker 1: That's the kind of situation that they're facing there. And

1299
01:06:20,840 --> 01:06:23,960
Speaker 1: what they're pointing to is the fact that you know, Nevada,

1300
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 1: of maybe of every state, was hit the hardest by

1301
01:06:26,880 --> 01:06:29,600
Speaker 1: the pandemic and the you know, shut down policies that

1302
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:33,200
Speaker 1: are associated with Democrats. The state economies really dependent on

1303
01:06:33,280 --> 01:06:36,520
Speaker 1: Las Vegas and the service industry, so this was a

1304
01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:41,720
Speaker 1: massive hit. You have continued issues with housing affordability there

1305
01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:46,520
Speaker 1: as well. And so what one Republican consultant that they

1306
01:06:46,680 --> 01:06:48,960
Speaker 1: quoted here said, who's involved, by the way, in the

1307
01:06:48,960 --> 01:06:51,280
Speaker 1: campaign for is you say Adam Laxalt? Is that how

1308
01:06:51,280 --> 01:06:53,520
Speaker 1: you say the Jew's last name? The Republican Senate candidate.

1309
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 1: So he is biased, But I actually think this is

1310
01:06:55,520 --> 01:06:59,000
Speaker 1: probably a pretty fair assessment, says, this is the purest

1311
01:06:59,040 --> 01:07:02,760
Speaker 1: example of a friendum election. You have, more than anywhere

1312
01:07:02,800 --> 01:07:06,400
Speaker 1: else in the country, frustrations over inflation, he said, created

1313
01:07:06,440 --> 01:07:11,280
Speaker 1: an electorate that simply wants change. So, you know, in Nevada,

1314
01:07:11,360 --> 01:07:14,560
Speaker 1: it's it's actually a very interesting state because you have

1315
01:07:15,040 --> 01:07:19,440
Speaker 1: a really heavily unionized population. The unions are very powerfully

1316
01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:21,800
Speaker 1: the culinary workers union, we talked a lot about that,

1317
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:25,240
Speaker 1: especially am rising during the Democratic primaries and caucuses there.

1318
01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:29,000
Speaker 1: It's a much more Democrats actually there having much more

1319
01:07:29,080 --> 01:07:32,800
Speaker 1: working class base than they do in states, say like Virginia,

1320
01:07:32,800 --> 01:07:34,800
Speaker 1: where they're much more heavily on these sort of like white,

1321
01:07:34,800 --> 01:07:39,320
Speaker 1: affluent liberal suburbs, and that different base is all because

1322
01:07:39,480 --> 01:07:41,760
Speaker 1: of both what industry is there and also the fact

1323
01:07:41,760 --> 01:07:45,200
Speaker 1: that it's this heavily unionized state. But then that runs

1324
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:48,160
Speaker 1: into you know, working class people getting hit hard by

1325
01:07:48,160 --> 01:07:50,200
Speaker 1: the economy and the fact that you have a large

1326
01:07:50,280 --> 01:07:53,280
Speaker 1: Latino electorate that has been shifting some to the right

1327
01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:56,680
Speaker 1: and increasingly identifying as Republicans. Even as Democrats continue to

1328
01:07:56,720 --> 01:08:00,480
Speaker 1: win them, they've also obviously lost margin there. That spells

1329
01:08:00,520 --> 01:08:02,640
Speaker 1: trouble for Democrats. And the last thing I'll say here,

1330
01:08:02,680 --> 01:08:04,240
Speaker 1: let's go and put the polling up on the screen.

1331
01:08:04,720 --> 01:08:07,880
Speaker 1: The polling out of Nevada, basically the whole time, has

1332
01:08:07,880 --> 01:08:10,760
Speaker 1: shown these races to be very close. This is the

1333
01:08:10,880 --> 01:08:13,000
Speaker 1: very latest poll that we have out of the state.

1334
01:08:13,320 --> 01:08:17,080
Speaker 1: It shows the Republican for the Senate Laxalt leading by

1335
01:08:17,160 --> 01:08:19,400
Speaker 1: two points. That is within the margin of error. But

1336
01:08:20,000 --> 01:08:22,640
Speaker 1: we've consistently the last few polls we've gotten out of

1337
01:08:22,640 --> 01:08:25,360
Speaker 1: the state have shown him with an edge over the

1338
01:08:25,360 --> 01:08:28,479
Speaker 1: Democratic incumbent, albeit a narrow edge, And then you see

1339
01:08:28,479 --> 01:08:31,040
Speaker 1: you go down, go down the list. For governor, the

1340
01:08:31,080 --> 01:08:33,920
Speaker 1: Republican also has a small edge. For a lieutenant governor,

1341
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:36,800
Speaker 1: the Republican has a significant edge. For Secretary of State,

1342
01:08:36,840 --> 01:08:39,600
Speaker 1: the Republican has a significant edge. For Attorney General, the

1343
01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:42,320
Speaker 1: Republican has a small edge. And then, as I mentioned,

1344
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:45,880
Speaker 1: all three of the Democratic incumbent members of Congress are

1345
01:08:45,920 --> 01:08:49,799
Speaker 1: in basically toss up districts that could truly go either way.

1346
01:08:50,200 --> 01:08:53,240
Speaker 1: This is a state where the polls have been pretty accurate,

1347
01:08:53,479 --> 01:08:56,080
Speaker 1: which I think is part of why it has shown

1348
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:59,639
Speaker 1: this tighter race all the way through. They basically got

1349
01:08:59,640 --> 01:09:03,120
Speaker 1: it right in twenty twenty, very different from what we saw,

1350
01:09:03,320 --> 01:09:05,760
Speaker 1: you know, in the industrial Midwestern states. So I do

1351
01:09:05,800 --> 01:09:07,639
Speaker 1: think that the polls out of the state are more

1352
01:09:07,840 --> 01:09:10,240
Speaker 1: likely to be presenting an accurate picture of what's happening here.

1353
01:09:10,280 --> 01:09:12,240
Speaker 1: And this is a sleeper which most people in the

1354
01:09:12,280 --> 01:09:14,599
Speaker 1: country or most people in the national press are really

1355
01:09:14,640 --> 01:09:17,200
Speaker 1: just not paying attention to at all. And look, if

1356
01:09:17,240 --> 01:09:20,160
Speaker 1: they lose that seat to a Republican, it would be

1357
01:09:20,560 --> 01:09:23,120
Speaker 1: a game changer, and because then that means that Fetterman

1358
01:09:23,200 --> 01:09:26,080
Speaker 1: Oz could go one way and even Georgia and it

1359
01:09:26,120 --> 01:09:28,880
Speaker 1: would still change the balance of power. So to have

1360
01:09:28,920 --> 01:09:32,720
Speaker 1: that scenario where you could have an upset. Also, I

1361
01:09:32,760 --> 01:09:35,360
Speaker 1: think the fact, as you're pointing out that Nevada was

1362
01:09:35,439 --> 01:09:38,280
Speaker 1: actually pretty on the money and does show the Republican

1363
01:09:38,400 --> 01:09:41,759
Speaker 1: so Clost winning, we should then transpose that onto states

1364
01:09:41,760 --> 01:09:45,520
Speaker 1: where the misses have been very, very high, like Pennsylvania

1365
01:09:45,800 --> 01:09:48,920
Speaker 1: and like Georgia and say, okay, maybe it's a lot

1366
01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:52,679
Speaker 1: closer there than it shows. I mean even today, new

1367
01:09:52,920 --> 01:09:55,960
Speaker 1: full poll out of the Philly Choirer came out this morning, Crystal,

1368
01:09:56,160 --> 01:09:59,040
Speaker 1: and they're like, Fetterman is forty six, Oz is forty,

1369
01:09:59,160 --> 01:10:03,360
Speaker 1: except Oz's posing the gap and said poll Vetterman's favorabilities

1370
01:10:03,360 --> 01:10:05,880
Speaker 1: have gone up, and I'm like, our unfavorability has gone

1371
01:10:05,920 --> 01:10:08,679
Speaker 1: up with attack ads. It's like, well, if the biased

1372
01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:11,400
Speaker 1: poll is forty six forty, what is it actually Yeah,

1373
01:10:11,439 --> 01:10:14,360
Speaker 1: to mess up toss up complete time. That's Tom reading

1374
01:10:14,400 --> 01:10:17,320
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania at this point, I think you should. We were

1375
01:10:17,360 --> 01:10:20,720
Speaker 1: always skeptical of the polls that had Fetterman up by

1376
01:10:20,760 --> 01:10:23,880
Speaker 1: like twelve points, like this is Pennsylvania. Betterman is not

1377
01:10:23,920 --> 01:10:26,600
Speaker 1: going to win by twelve points. I'm now skeptical of

1378
01:10:26,600 --> 01:10:28,280
Speaker 1: the polls that says he has a six point lead.

1379
01:10:28,360 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 1: I think that state is a genuine toss up at

1380
01:10:31,520 --> 01:10:35,840
Speaker 1: this point. I think Nevada probably more accurately reflects the

1381
01:10:35,880 --> 01:10:38,679
Speaker 1: actual state of you know, how all of these races

1382
01:10:38,720 --> 01:10:41,880
Speaker 1: are going to unfold, which is basically it's a toss up.

1383
01:10:41,960 --> 01:10:44,360
Speaker 1: But if you had to say the Republican has an edge.

1384
01:10:45,200 --> 01:10:49,280
Speaker 1: Now there's some interesting backstory in Nevada as well. Harry

1385
01:10:49,320 --> 01:10:54,160
Speaker 1: Reid obviously really built out the Democratic Party machine in

1386
01:10:54,200 --> 01:10:56,759
Speaker 1: the state, including you know, the ties directly with unions

1387
01:10:56,760 --> 01:10:58,280
Speaker 1: and all of those sorts of things. He has of

1388
01:10:58,320 --> 01:11:03,320
Speaker 1: course passed away, and you had a Bernie Sanders aligned

1389
01:11:03,479 --> 01:11:05,599
Speaker 1: takeover of the Democratic Party in the state. I don't

1390
01:11:05,600 --> 01:11:09,520
Speaker 1: know if you guys remember this, but they won elections

1391
01:11:09,560 --> 01:11:12,240
Speaker 1: to basically run the Democratic Party in the state, and

1392
01:11:12,400 --> 01:11:15,720
Speaker 1: the establishment Democrats were so upset about this that they

1393
01:11:15,720 --> 01:11:20,080
Speaker 1: effectively like sabotaged and blew up the state party apparatus. Now,

1394
01:11:20,200 --> 01:11:22,679
Speaker 1: my understanding is that they sort of like made amends

1395
01:11:22,720 --> 01:11:26,000
Speaker 1: and come back together, but I'm sure there was damage

1396
01:11:26,000 --> 01:11:29,240
Speaker 1: that was done to this Democratic party machine that was

1397
01:11:29,280 --> 01:11:33,200
Speaker 1: built by Harry Reid when the establishment Democrats just decided, like,

1398
01:11:33,560 --> 01:11:35,040
Speaker 1: we don't like you, so we're going to blow the

1399
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:37,879
Speaker 1: whole thing up. So that also is you know, another

1400
01:11:37,920 --> 01:11:41,120
Speaker 1: sort of issue that lurks in the background there. Now

1401
01:11:41,520 --> 01:11:43,800
Speaker 1: on the other side, I would say that part of

1402
01:11:43,880 --> 01:11:45,880
Speaker 1: why Democrats have been able to do as well in

1403
01:11:45,920 --> 01:11:48,360
Speaker 1: Nevada as they have is because you do have this

1404
01:11:48,520 --> 01:11:52,240
Speaker 1: very strong union presence. Even as Republicans have won over

1405
01:11:52,280 --> 01:11:55,080
Speaker 1: some union members, union membership is still one of the

1406
01:11:55,120 --> 01:11:58,840
Speaker 1: strongest determinant of Democratic voting. So the fact that these

1407
01:11:58,880 --> 01:12:01,960
Speaker 1: are people who are organized around their material interest that is,

1408
01:12:02,240 --> 01:12:05,800
Speaker 1: you know, inherently a benefit for Democrats there, and you know,

1409
01:12:06,240 --> 01:12:08,800
Speaker 1: that's something that they've been able to rely on elections past.

1410
01:12:09,360 --> 01:12:11,240
Speaker 1: So to the extent that this thing is close, I

1411
01:12:11,280 --> 01:12:13,080
Speaker 1: think if they if you didn't have that union presence,

1412
01:12:13,080 --> 01:12:14,800
Speaker 1: I think this would be a wipeout in favor of

1413
01:12:14,840 --> 01:12:17,479
Speaker 1: the Republicans. But the fact that they do have, you know,

1414
01:12:17,520 --> 01:12:20,200
Speaker 1: a well organized union presence, and that's very strong and

1415
01:12:20,520 --> 01:12:23,559
Speaker 1: helps to deliver votes for Democrats ultimately in this state

1416
01:12:23,640 --> 01:12:25,720
Speaker 1: could be what saves them in the end. If they

1417
01:12:25,760 --> 01:12:27,599
Speaker 1: are in fact saved. I think you're right. I mean,

1418
01:12:27,640 --> 01:12:29,360
Speaker 1: I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on Nevada.

1419
01:12:29,479 --> 01:12:32,599
Speaker 1: You can just look at polls over time. My limited understanding,

1420
01:12:32,640 --> 01:12:35,000
Speaker 1: as you said, is that dam's always have somewhat of

1421
01:12:35,000 --> 01:12:38,479
Speaker 1: a shot given that Las Vegas base of union organizing

1422
01:12:38,520 --> 01:12:41,920
Speaker 1: it more and the disproportionate influence it wields. It is

1423
01:12:42,200 --> 01:12:45,160
Speaker 1: semi conservative, has shown us many times with upsets in

1424
01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:47,240
Speaker 1: the past. State it is the best way to look

1425
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:49,960
Speaker 1: at it. It's a strange place. It's fascinating to read

1426
01:12:49,960 --> 01:12:51,880
Speaker 1: the history of like harryet Yeah is and all that

1427
01:12:52,040 --> 01:12:55,799
Speaker 1: is very unique, very yeah, very unique, going back basically

1428
01:12:55,840 --> 01:12:58,599
Speaker 1: since its history. We'll watch it closely because I think

1429
01:12:58,600 --> 01:13:00,920
Speaker 1: there's a lot of national wins that can be told

1430
01:13:01,240 --> 01:13:04,519
Speaker 1: from out of this, indeed, back of what happened indeed. Okay,

1431
01:13:04,640 --> 01:13:07,479
Speaker 1: so this is the one everyone was talking about today,

1432
01:13:07,479 --> 01:13:09,720
Speaker 1: which is what the hell is going on with Herschelwalker

1433
01:13:09,760 --> 01:13:12,240
Speaker 1: and his campaign and his family and all the rest.

1434
01:13:12,320 --> 01:13:15,080
Speaker 1: Is not pretty thing to talk about, but very relevant

1435
01:13:15,080 --> 01:13:18,320
Speaker 1: in terms of who's ultimately going to control the Senate. Okay,

1436
01:13:18,479 --> 01:13:21,599
Speaker 1: So it all started with this report from the Daily Beast.

1437
01:13:21,680 --> 01:13:23,200
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.

1438
01:13:23,240 --> 01:13:25,679
Speaker 1: So Herschel Walker, who is very pro life and says

1439
01:13:25,720 --> 01:13:28,639
Speaker 1: he doesn't believe in exceptions. And you know, unlike some

1440
01:13:28,800 --> 01:13:31,519
Speaker 1: Republicans who sort of walked back from their abortion abortion

1441
01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:34,200
Speaker 1: positions in the general election, he has been all in

1442
01:13:35,160 --> 01:13:39,559
Speaker 1: Daily Beast reporting pro life. Herschel Walker paid for his

1443
01:13:39,640 --> 01:13:44,760
Speaker 1: girlfriend's abortion. But wait, there's more. They have quite a

1444
01:13:44,760 --> 01:13:48,599
Speaker 1: bit of evidence to support this allegation. Let's go and

1445
01:13:48,600 --> 01:13:51,519
Speaker 1: put this next piece up on the screen. The woman

1446
01:13:51,560 --> 01:13:55,559
Speaker 1: who they did not name, you know, to protect her privacy, said.

1447
01:13:55,640 --> 01:13:58,240
Speaker 1: They say she supported these claims with a five hundred

1448
01:13:58,240 --> 01:14:00,639
Speaker 1: and seventy five dollars receipt from an aboor portion clinic,

1449
01:14:01,800 --> 01:14:05,840
Speaker 1: plus a get well card from Walker that they actually

1450
01:14:05,880 --> 01:14:07,920
Speaker 1: have pictured in the peace with his like, you know,

1451
01:14:08,280 --> 01:14:12,639
Speaker 1: very clearly his signature signed on the card, and a

1452
01:14:12,720 --> 01:14:16,719
Speaker 1: bank deposit receipt that included an image of a signed

1453
01:14:16,960 --> 01:14:21,439
Speaker 1: seven hundred dollars personal check that came from Walker. So

1454
01:14:21,720 --> 01:14:24,360
Speaker 1: you've got the receipt from the abortion clinic, the get

1455
01:14:24,360 --> 01:14:27,479
Speaker 1: well card that came right after the abortion, and the

1456
01:14:27,520 --> 01:14:30,559
Speaker 1: bank deposit receipt that is for the rough amount that

1457
01:14:30,600 --> 01:14:37,000
Speaker 1: the abortion cost from directly from herschel Walker so pretty hard.

1458
01:14:37,080 --> 01:14:39,120
Speaker 1: I would say to deny that one. It seems like

1459
01:14:39,160 --> 01:14:42,360
Speaker 1: the facts are fairly clear here. Also important to keep

1460
01:14:42,400 --> 01:14:45,880
Speaker 1: in mind herschel Walker has been caught in like so

1461
01:14:46,000 --> 01:14:48,600
Speaker 1: many lives at this point, I cannot keep track of

1462
01:14:48,600 --> 01:14:50,479
Speaker 1: all of them. There were obviously the ones about his

1463
01:14:50,560 --> 01:14:53,080
Speaker 1: kids that he denied even to his own campaign staff

1464
01:14:53,080 --> 01:14:55,519
Speaker 1: were his until he got caught red handed. Now he's

1465
01:14:55,560 --> 01:14:57,360
Speaker 1: trying to say, oh, I just wanted to protect them,

1466
01:14:57,400 --> 01:14:59,280
Speaker 1: That's why I wasn't talking about him. That was not

1467
01:14:59,400 --> 01:15:02,200
Speaker 1: the story at the In fact, his own campaign staff

1468
01:15:02,280 --> 01:15:05,280
Speaker 1: was leaking to The Daily Beast about how they didn't

1469
01:15:05,280 --> 01:15:07,360
Speaker 1: know whether he was lying, that he was a pathological liar,

1470
01:15:07,439 --> 01:15:09,559
Speaker 1: that they couldn't trust anything that he said. That They

1471
01:15:09,600 --> 01:15:11,920
Speaker 1: sat down with him after the first revelation were like,

1472
01:15:12,200 --> 01:15:16,080
Speaker 1: herschel dude, are there anymore? And he's like, absolutely not.

1473
01:15:16,240 --> 01:15:18,559
Speaker 1: And then that very day they get new evidence that

1474
01:15:18,600 --> 01:15:21,200
Speaker 1: in fact, there are more kids. He's lied about his bio.

1475
01:15:21,280 --> 01:15:23,160
Speaker 1: I mean, you could go on and on. There's clearly

1476
01:15:23,240 --> 01:15:27,080
Speaker 1: a difficult relationship with the truth. So anyway, that is

1477
01:15:27,120 --> 01:15:29,559
Speaker 1: the context for his flat out denial. Let's go and

1478
01:15:29,560 --> 01:15:32,400
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen Walker says, this is

1479
01:15:32,400 --> 01:15:34,679
Speaker 1: a flat out lie. I deny this in the strongest

1480
01:15:34,680 --> 01:15:38,000
Speaker 1: possible terms. It's a repugnant hatchet job from a Democrat

1481
01:15:38,080 --> 01:15:42,240
Speaker 1: activist disguised as a reporter subsessively attacked my famili's harass

1482
01:15:42,280 --> 01:15:45,200
Speaker 1: friends of mine, asking my father their children. He's called

1483
01:15:45,240 --> 01:15:47,479
Speaker 1: my children secret because I didn't want to use them

1484
01:15:47,479 --> 01:15:49,680
Speaker 1: as campaign props and political campaign That's what I was

1485
01:15:49,680 --> 01:15:52,600
Speaker 1: talking about before. Now they're using an anonymous source to

1486
01:15:52,680 --> 01:15:55,400
Speaker 1: further slander me. They'll do anything to hold onto power.

1487
01:15:55,439 --> 01:15:58,040
Speaker 1: It's disgusting, gut or politics. I won't take it anymore.

1488
01:15:58,080 --> 01:16:01,479
Speaker 1: I'm planning to sue The Daily Beat for this defamatory lie.

1489
01:16:01,520 --> 01:16:04,160
Speaker 1: It will be filed tomorrow morning. Just a little bit

1490
01:16:04,200 --> 01:16:06,559
Speaker 1: more on his response, because I thought this was interesting.

1491
01:16:06,640 --> 01:16:09,160
Speaker 1: He kind of tried to imply that the reason they're

1492
01:16:09,160 --> 01:16:11,320
Speaker 1: going after him is because he's black. Let's go ahead

1493
01:16:11,320 --> 01:16:14,360
Speaker 1: and put this piece up on the screen. So this

1494
01:16:14,400 --> 01:16:17,439
Speaker 1: reporter says she was at a herschel Walker event when

1495
01:16:17,479 --> 01:16:20,040
Speaker 1: the story broke, and his immediate response was, that's a lie.

1496
01:16:20,080 --> 01:16:22,120
Speaker 1: The Daily Beast they said that about my kids also,

1497
01:16:22,240 --> 01:16:25,000
Speaker 1: they lied. No, they didn't anyway, So I don't take

1498
01:16:25,040 --> 01:16:27,559
Speaker 1: anything that seriously. And I think that right now, I

1499
01:16:27,640 --> 01:16:30,679
Speaker 1: ask this question, would they be doing that if I

1500
01:16:30,840 --> 01:16:36,400
Speaker 1: was white? Okay, so already a lot of drama here. However,

1501
01:16:37,240 --> 01:16:40,720
Speaker 1: this takes the cake. Yes, the story goes so much

1502
01:16:40,800 --> 01:16:44,040
Speaker 1: further than this. So Herschel Walker, you guys may be

1503
01:16:44,200 --> 01:16:48,360
Speaker 1: aware of, he has actually quite prominent son, Christian Walker,

1504
01:16:48,520 --> 01:16:52,280
Speaker 1: who has been Herschel's probably most prominent campaign surrogate, who

1505
01:16:52,320 --> 01:16:57,200
Speaker 1: himself is like outspoken right wing conservative, you know, really

1506
01:16:57,280 --> 01:17:00,800
Speaker 1: like podcast called Uncancellable, let's just put it exactly, and

1507
01:17:00,840 --> 01:17:02,840
Speaker 1: you know, loves to own the Libs and like he's

1508
01:17:02,880 --> 01:17:06,080
Speaker 1: down for the cause. Right, So Christian has been really

1509
01:17:06,160 --> 01:17:09,400
Speaker 1: outspoken in favor of his father's campaign. Something about this

1510
01:17:09,520 --> 01:17:14,479
Speaker 1: story and the denial triggered a total one to eighty

1511
01:17:14,479 --> 01:17:16,920
Speaker 1: from Christian Walker with regards to his father. So let's

1512
01:17:16,920 --> 01:17:21,599
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen, he says, every family

1513
01:17:21,640 --> 01:17:24,400
Speaker 1: member of Herschel Walker asked him not to run for

1514
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:28,000
Speaker 1: office because we all knew some of his fast every

1515
01:17:28,000 --> 01:17:30,840
Speaker 1: single one. He decided to give us the middle finger

1516
01:17:31,000 --> 01:17:33,679
Speaker 1: and air out all of his dirty laundry in public

1517
01:17:33,720 --> 01:17:38,200
Speaker 1: while simultaneously lying about it. I'm done, Christian continued, let's

1518
01:17:38,200 --> 01:17:40,280
Speaker 1: go and put this next piece up on the screen.

1519
01:17:41,040 --> 01:17:43,559
Speaker 1: I know my mom and I would really appreciate if

1520
01:17:43,600 --> 01:17:47,719
Speaker 1: my father, herschel Walker, stopped lying and making a mockery

1521
01:17:47,800 --> 01:17:50,559
Speaker 1: of us. You are not a family man when you

1522
01:17:50,720 --> 01:17:53,960
Speaker 1: left us to bang a bunch of women, threatened to

1523
01:17:54,120 --> 01:17:57,240
Speaker 1: kill us, and had us move over six times in

1524
01:17:57,320 --> 01:17:59,960
Speaker 1: six months running from your violence. I don't care about

1525
01:18:00,160 --> 01:18:02,480
Speaker 1: someone who has had a bad pass and takes accountability,

1526
01:18:02,479 --> 01:18:04,960
Speaker 1: But how dare you lie and act as though you're

1527
01:18:05,000 --> 01:18:08,680
Speaker 1: some moral Christian, upright man. You've lived a life of

1528
01:18:08,720 --> 01:18:14,240
Speaker 1: destroying other people's lives. How dare you so his son,

1529
01:18:14,520 --> 01:18:18,440
Speaker 1: who has been very unspoken in favor of him, completely

1530
01:18:18,520 --> 01:18:23,639
Speaker 1: turning on him in a scathing fashion. And that's where

1531
01:18:23,640 --> 01:18:25,760
Speaker 1: things stand. Like, yeah, and so, while you and I

1532
01:18:25,800 --> 01:18:28,439
Speaker 1: are on the air, he actually put out a new video.

1533
01:18:28,640 --> 01:18:31,080
Speaker 1: I haven't you know obviously we're doing the show. But

1534
01:18:31,120 --> 01:18:33,320
Speaker 1: he just says, I've stayed silent for nearly two years.

1535
01:18:33,360 --> 01:18:36,599
Speaker 1: My whole life has been lied about publicly one campaign event,

1536
01:18:36,640 --> 01:18:38,960
Speaker 1: then said I don't want any more involvement. Don't you

1537
01:18:39,120 --> 01:18:42,599
Speaker 1: dare test my authenticity? And he's giving out his full story.

1538
01:18:42,640 --> 01:18:44,599
Speaker 1: He says, I've spoken to nearly all the people who

1539
01:18:44,680 --> 01:18:46,280
Speaker 1: have attacked me and told them I didn't want to

1540
01:18:46,280 --> 01:18:48,880
Speaker 1: be involved. Now they're blaming me for everything I'm not

1541
01:18:48,960 --> 01:18:53,400
Speaker 1: responsible for. It's disgusting. So look, when your own son

1542
01:18:53,479 --> 01:18:56,479
Speaker 1: is going scorch earth against you and causing you, calling

1543
01:18:56,560 --> 01:19:00,000
Speaker 1: you an adulterer, and confirming that the story is effectively true,

1544
01:19:00,360 --> 01:19:03,040
Speaker 1: I mean, you're just seeing a massive, massive mess. I

1545
01:19:03,040 --> 01:19:06,080
Speaker 1: think it very links neatly with the story we're about

1546
01:19:06,080 --> 01:19:08,479
Speaker 1: to talk about next, which is in a way I

1547
01:19:08,520 --> 01:19:10,640
Speaker 1: feel bad for hershel Walker. It seems clear to me

1548
01:19:11,040 --> 01:19:14,120
Speaker 1: that he's just not all there, whatever's left. He's taken

1549
01:19:14,200 --> 01:19:17,320
Speaker 1: very impulsive decisions in his life. He's ruined a lot

1550
01:19:17,360 --> 01:19:19,639
Speaker 1: of his family, and he's a flawed candidate basically from

1551
01:19:19,680 --> 01:19:22,519
Speaker 1: the beginning, which was obvious to just about anybody every

1552
01:19:22,560 --> 01:19:26,160
Speaker 1: time he opens his mouth. So I typically, as you

1553
01:19:26,160 --> 01:19:28,639
Speaker 1: guys know, I don't put a lot of stock into

1554
01:19:28,960 --> 01:19:33,439
Speaker 1: candidate quality except in extreme circumstances, and this is an

1555
01:19:33,479 --> 01:19:35,840
Speaker 1: extreme star. I think it is extreme. You know when

1556
01:19:35,880 --> 01:19:40,120
Speaker 1: you have you know, there have been obviously repeated issues

1557
01:19:40,120 --> 01:19:42,960
Speaker 1: with the lying about the kids and getting caught in,

1558
01:19:43,000 --> 01:19:46,080
Speaker 1: then the lying about the bio, and just his inability

1559
01:19:46,080 --> 01:19:49,679
Speaker 1: to really, you know, explain his positions in a straightforward manner.

1560
01:19:50,160 --> 01:19:54,160
Speaker 1: But then when you have the story itself was damaging,

1561
01:19:54,200 --> 01:19:57,720
Speaker 1: but I don't think total deal breaker in terms of

1562
01:19:57,720 --> 01:19:59,639
Speaker 1: the center race. But then when you have your own son,

1563
01:20:00,120 --> 01:20:04,479
Speaker 1: who's been so prominent, coming out in this manner and

1564
01:20:04,800 --> 01:20:09,960
Speaker 1: just guns blazing saying you're an adulter, you're a liar,

1565
01:20:10,320 --> 01:20:13,040
Speaker 1: you threatened us with violence, You've ruined all of our lives.

1566
01:20:13,080 --> 01:20:16,360
Speaker 1: We all begged you not to run. I mean that's

1567
01:20:16,920 --> 01:20:20,800
Speaker 1: I think that's a very very difficult thing to ultimately overcome.

1568
01:20:20,840 --> 01:20:23,000
Speaker 1: And you know, this is a race. George is another

1569
01:20:23,040 --> 01:20:26,080
Speaker 1: state like Nevada where the polling has actually been quite accurate.

1570
01:20:27,040 --> 01:20:30,080
Speaker 1: In fact, I think the polling going into the last

1571
01:20:30,080 --> 01:20:34,160
Speaker 1: two Senate runoffs actually understated Democratic support by a little bit,

1572
01:20:34,240 --> 01:20:37,599
Speaker 1: like maybe a point or two. So when you look

1573
01:20:37,640 --> 01:20:39,760
Speaker 1: at this race and you see polling that has it

1574
01:20:40,479 --> 01:20:43,720
Speaker 1: neck and neck, true toss up Rafael Warnock maybe with

1575
01:20:43,760 --> 01:20:46,520
Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge, and then you see

1576
01:20:46,640 --> 01:20:51,840
Speaker 1: these this, you know, this just disaster for herschel Walker

1577
01:20:51,840 --> 01:20:55,200
Speaker 1: and frankly for his family. It's this is going to

1578
01:20:55,240 --> 01:20:57,240
Speaker 1: be I think a difficult for Republicans to be able

1579
01:20:57,240 --> 01:21:00,320
Speaker 1: to pull off. You know, I'm seeing them being a

1580
01:21:00,360 --> 01:21:02,439
Speaker 1: little more hopeful about Oz and how Oz had his

1581
01:21:02,479 --> 01:21:06,880
Speaker 1: own story come out yesterday about about dogsbies. We're going

1582
01:21:06,920 --> 01:21:11,120
Speaker 1: to that one because some of these allegations are actually horrifying,

1583
01:21:11,560 --> 01:21:14,479
Speaker 1: and I do I mean, obviously it's no accident that

1584
01:21:14,520 --> 01:21:17,160
Speaker 1: these types of stories come out in October, a couple

1585
01:21:17,240 --> 01:21:19,479
Speaker 1: weeks before an election. This is exactly when you would

1586
01:21:19,520 --> 01:21:22,160
Speaker 1: time an APO dump to try to you know, really

1587
01:21:22,240 --> 01:21:24,439
Speaker 1: land with the electorate before people start voting and go

1588
01:21:24,479 --> 01:21:26,560
Speaker 1: to the polls. But that doesn't mean that the allegations

1589
01:21:26,560 --> 01:21:29,919
Speaker 1: are false or untrue or unworthy of reporting on ultimately,

1590
01:21:30,000 --> 01:21:32,040
Speaker 1: even if you know they are sort of coming from

1591
01:21:32,360 --> 01:21:35,240
Speaker 1: one side of the political spectrum. So in any case,

1592
01:21:35,360 --> 01:21:37,280
Speaker 1: I think this makes it a lot more difficult for

1593
01:21:37,360 --> 01:21:40,240
Speaker 1: Republicans to pick up the state of Georgia. When we

1594
01:21:40,240 --> 01:21:42,680
Speaker 1: were down in Atlanta, I actually predicted Republicans would win

1595
01:21:42,720 --> 01:21:46,280
Speaker 1: the seat. I am changing that prediction. I now think

1596
01:21:46,320 --> 01:21:49,839
Speaker 1: this is going to be a very difficult, difficult situation

1597
01:21:49,960 --> 01:21:52,240
Speaker 1: for them to overcome, just because this is all so

1598
01:21:52,640 --> 01:21:56,640
Speaker 1: incredibly disturbing and damaging. And so that doesn't mean that

1599
01:21:56,640 --> 01:21:58,680
Speaker 1: Republicans won't pick up the Senate, but they're going to

1600
01:21:58,720 --> 01:22:01,760
Speaker 1: need to look to states like Nevada and Pennsylvania. Even

1601
01:22:01,800 --> 01:22:03,880
Speaker 1: if they just pick up those two, then they'll be

1602
01:22:03,920 --> 01:22:06,320
Speaker 1: able to get the one point the one sea margin

1603
01:22:06,360 --> 01:22:08,439
Speaker 1: that they ultimately need here. I think you're absolutely correct

1604
01:22:08,439 --> 01:22:12,240
Speaker 1: about that. All right, let's talk about the NFL. So

1605
01:22:12,600 --> 01:22:16,919
Speaker 1: I used to be a big NFL fan and watcher Washington,

1606
01:22:17,040 --> 01:22:20,880
Speaker 1: long time suffering Washington sports fan, but now I hardly

1607
01:22:20,920 --> 01:22:25,400
Speaker 1: watch at all. But you actually Sager picked up on

1608
01:22:25,439 --> 01:22:31,040
Speaker 1: this story, which is I'm quite shocked and disturbed by

1609
01:22:31,200 --> 01:22:36,160
Speaker 1: the whole situation. So quarterback for the Miami Dolphins, to

1610
01:22:36,360 --> 01:22:39,720
Speaker 1: a tongue of Iiloa, he was in a game on

1611
01:22:39,800 --> 01:22:43,240
Speaker 1: September twenty ninth. It was a Sunday against Buffalo, and

1612
01:22:43,600 --> 01:22:45,960
Speaker 1: he was hit and he falls back and he gets

1613
01:22:46,040 --> 01:22:48,960
Speaker 1: up and you can see him shaking his head and

1614
01:22:49,000 --> 01:22:52,599
Speaker 1: then he stumbles. Clear indication that there's been a head

1615
01:22:52,640 --> 01:22:55,280
Speaker 1: injury here. So let's go ahead and take a look

1616
01:22:55,640 --> 01:22:58,439
Speaker 1: at that. I'm going to explain it as this is happening.

1617
01:22:58,479 --> 01:23:01,800
Speaker 1: So you see him fall back, hit his head on

1618
01:23:01,840 --> 01:23:04,160
Speaker 1: the turf. He stands up here, he's shaking his head.

1619
01:23:04,439 --> 01:23:07,080
Speaker 1: He's trying to run back and then he stumbles down

1620
01:23:07,120 --> 01:23:10,280
Speaker 1: to his knees. Now this isn't and his teammates sort

1621
01:23:10,320 --> 01:23:12,679
Speaker 1: of like grab him to hold hold him up. There

1622
01:23:12,720 --> 01:23:15,759
Speaker 1: you can tell he's he's really sort of like lost

1623
01:23:15,840 --> 01:23:19,439
Speaker 1: motor control in that moment. Again, clear sign of a

1624
01:23:19,479 --> 01:23:23,040
Speaker 1: head injury, which is why immediately personnel run onto the

1625
01:23:23,040 --> 01:23:26,200
Speaker 1: field and they take him off to be evaluated. However,

1626
01:23:26,479 --> 01:23:28,960
Speaker 1: in spite of the fact that he's had a clear

1627
01:23:29,400 --> 01:23:34,880
Speaker 1: sign of this gross motor issues, clear sign of a concussion,

1628
01:23:35,360 --> 01:23:39,519
Speaker 1: he is brought back in after halftime and continues the game. Now,

1629
01:23:39,840 --> 01:23:44,160
Speaker 1: already this is a problem because yes, you know, they

1630
01:23:44,240 --> 01:23:47,360
Speaker 1: have these concussion protocols, and one of the things they

1631
01:23:47,439 --> 01:23:52,280
Speaker 1: point to is this gross motor instability. If you demonstrate that,

1632
01:23:52,600 --> 01:23:55,960
Speaker 1: it's supposed to be what they call a no go. However,

1633
01:23:56,439 --> 01:24:00,240
Speaker 1: within the concussion protocol, they had this loophole where if

1634
01:24:00,280 --> 01:24:03,320
Speaker 1: your team doctor, who is kind of incentivized to get

1635
01:24:03,360 --> 01:24:05,080
Speaker 1: the guys back on the field so the team can win,

1636
01:24:05,120 --> 01:24:07,439
Speaker 1: because ultimately that's all they really care about. If the

1637
01:24:07,439 --> 01:24:11,040
Speaker 1: team doctor and an independent neurologist evaluate you and say

1638
01:24:11,040 --> 01:24:14,160
Speaker 1: you're good to go, then you can override even those

1639
01:24:14,280 --> 01:24:17,240
Speaker 1: no go symptoms. That are a clear sign anyone. You

1640
01:24:17,240 --> 01:24:19,559
Speaker 1: don't need a medical degree to look at this video

1641
01:24:19,600 --> 01:24:22,479
Speaker 1: and say this guy had a head injury. Then it

1642
01:24:22,479 --> 01:24:27,280
Speaker 1: gets so much worse because after that Sunday game, Tua's team,

1643
01:24:27,360 --> 01:24:29,680
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins, is then set to play in this

1644
01:24:29,920 --> 01:24:33,400
Speaker 1: Thursday night game. And even before the game, you have

1645
01:24:33,479 --> 01:24:38,360
Speaker 1: Chris Nowinski, who's an advocate for concussion care. He tweeted,

1646
01:24:38,400 --> 01:24:39,799
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.

1647
01:24:39,920 --> 01:24:42,960
Speaker 1: If Tua takes the field tonight, it is a massive

1648
01:24:42,960 --> 01:24:45,720
Speaker 1: step back for concussion care in the NFL. If he

1649
01:24:45,760 --> 01:24:48,719
Speaker 1: has a second concussion that destroys his season or career,

1650
01:24:49,160 --> 01:24:51,880
Speaker 1: everyone involved will be sued and should lose their jobs.

1651
01:24:52,000 --> 01:24:55,200
Speaker 1: Coaches included. We all saw it. He's talking about that

1652
01:24:55,439 --> 01:24:59,400
Speaker 1: concussion from the last game. Even they must know this

1653
01:24:59,479 --> 01:25:05,000
Speaker 1: isn't right. And sure enough, during this game, the worst

1654
01:25:05,200 --> 01:25:08,479
Speaker 1: possible thing happens to let's go and put this up

1655
01:25:08,520 --> 01:25:12,800
Speaker 1: on the screen. Tua drops back, he is sacked, he

1656
01:25:12,920 --> 01:25:15,240
Speaker 1: takes a hard hit on the back of the helmet,

1657
01:25:15,840 --> 01:25:18,920
Speaker 1: and what you see here with his hands in these

1658
01:25:19,360 --> 01:25:25,240
Speaker 1: unnatural positioning they call this the fencing response. He hits

1659
01:25:25,240 --> 01:25:27,800
Speaker 1: his head in the same exact place where he had

1660
01:25:27,840 --> 01:25:32,400
Speaker 1: had trauma previously, and now he has this very clear

1661
01:25:34,320 --> 01:25:38,360
Speaker 1: serious brain injury. When you have that fencing response, I

1662
01:25:38,360 --> 01:25:41,080
Speaker 1: went deep on this. By the way, guys, that indicates

1663
01:25:41,120 --> 01:25:45,120
Speaker 1: that you have probably suffered brainstem injury. He's on the

1664
01:25:45,120 --> 01:25:48,400
Speaker 1: field for twelve minutes, they stabilize him, they take him off,

1665
01:25:48,439 --> 01:25:50,719
Speaker 1: they examine him, they say, yes, he has a concussion.

1666
01:25:50,760 --> 01:25:52,160
Speaker 1: And by the way, then after a few hours they

1667
01:25:52,160 --> 01:25:54,519
Speaker 1: put him on the plane to fly back home with

1668
01:25:54,640 --> 01:25:58,280
Speaker 1: his teammates. But the whole thing to watch it unfold,

1669
01:25:58,320 --> 01:26:00,439
Speaker 1: and I want you to understand why this is so

1670
01:26:00,640 --> 01:26:05,000
Speaker 1: incredibly serious, because concussions are serious in any event. But

1671
01:26:05,040 --> 01:26:07,679
Speaker 1: the real issue here is when you do not allow

1672
01:26:07,800 --> 01:26:11,799
Speaker 1: the brain to heal. If you allow the brain to heal,

1673
01:26:12,120 --> 01:26:14,799
Speaker 1: it goes back to more or less normal injury energy

1674
01:26:14,880 --> 01:26:18,479
Speaker 1: levels and you're able to sustain another injury and be

1675
01:26:18,520 --> 01:26:21,640
Speaker 1: able to recover in a normal fashion. However, if you

1676
01:26:21,720 --> 01:26:24,599
Speaker 1: do not allow the brain to heal, you can have

1677
01:26:24,640 --> 01:26:28,280
Speaker 1: something called second impact syndrome. Number one, if the brain

1678
01:26:28,360 --> 01:26:30,840
Speaker 1: is still injured, then you are much more likely to

1679
01:26:31,000 --> 01:26:34,760
Speaker 1: get another concussion. And number two, even if it is

1680
01:26:34,840 --> 01:26:39,840
Speaker 1: a minor brain injury, it can have compounding effects where

1681
01:26:39,840 --> 01:26:42,880
Speaker 1: it can literally go so far as to putting your

1682
01:26:43,040 --> 01:26:45,479
Speaker 1: life in danger. It can be fatal, and it can

1683
01:26:45,520 --> 01:26:50,160
Speaker 1: also cause severe lasting brain injury, which we don't know

1684
01:26:50,280 --> 01:26:52,559
Speaker 1: is something that Tua could still suffer here. So that's

1685
01:26:52,560 --> 01:26:54,680
Speaker 1: why it is so great no way to know. And

1686
01:26:54,800 --> 01:26:57,639
Speaker 1: I think the real culprit here are the doctors who

1687
01:26:57,680 --> 01:27:00,479
Speaker 1: cleared him, and the incentives and the pressure within the

1688
01:27:00,600 --> 01:27:03,160
Speaker 1: NFL at the team level and all of that that

1689
01:27:03,280 --> 01:27:06,040
Speaker 1: allowed this guy to put himself in danger. I mean,

1690
01:27:06,080 --> 01:27:08,400
Speaker 1: I also want to be clear, he probably wanted to play,

1691
01:27:08,439 --> 01:27:11,439
Speaker 1: but also you know, it's whenever you're in that altered

1692
01:27:11,479 --> 01:27:14,280
Speaker 1: state of mind and what players have to be protective

1693
01:27:14,479 --> 01:27:17,840
Speaker 1: right sometimes may have to And that's exactly the point

1694
01:27:18,080 --> 01:27:21,120
Speaker 1: of all these regulations. After all the discussion of you know,

1695
01:27:21,320 --> 01:27:24,519
Speaker 1: of of CTE and more. You know, my friend Andrew

1696
01:27:24,600 --> 01:27:27,920
Speaker 1: Huberan put out a very useful threat on this and

1697
01:27:27,960 --> 01:27:29,920
Speaker 1: what he talked about. He himself is a professor of

1698
01:27:29,920 --> 01:27:34,120
Speaker 1: neurobiology at Stanford Medicine. What he says is that there

1699
01:27:34,200 --> 01:27:39,080
Speaker 1: is no way to immediately assess the connection of a

1700
01:27:39,280 --> 01:27:43,360
Speaker 1: concussion or TBI in the hours or even days after

1701
01:27:43,400 --> 01:27:47,000
Speaker 1: it happens. You need one to five days to determine

1702
01:27:47,040 --> 01:27:50,000
Speaker 1: all of the consequences of the head hit. So to

1703
01:27:50,080 --> 01:27:52,000
Speaker 1: have somebody just be like, yeah, you're good to go,

1704
01:27:52,120 --> 01:27:55,360
Speaker 1: like clear you so called within minutes, that goes against

1705
01:27:55,400 --> 01:27:57,960
Speaker 1: everything that is known, at least with a gal. This

1706
01:27:58,040 --> 01:28:01,320
Speaker 1: is a professor at Stanford Medicine and saying assessment needs

1707
01:28:01,320 --> 01:28:04,000
Speaker 1: to begin immediately, but determining that somebody is quote safe

1708
01:28:04,000 --> 01:28:08,120
Speaker 1: to play needs days of monitoring to decide that accurately.

1709
01:28:08,439 --> 01:28:10,639
Speaker 1: So the fact is is that whatever their so called

1710
01:28:10,680 --> 01:28:14,920
Speaker 1: protocol was is not rooted in any actual medicine, as

1711
01:28:15,000 --> 01:28:18,679
Speaker 1: a person who understands and studies concussions woul understand it

1712
01:28:18,720 --> 01:28:22,880
Speaker 1: now comes though the prediction by Nowinsky, which is that

1713
01:28:23,160 --> 01:28:25,840
Speaker 1: the suing the downfall of the NFL and the team.

1714
01:28:26,240 --> 01:28:29,719
Speaker 1: Now we are beginning to see the beginning, at least

1715
01:28:29,720 --> 01:28:32,320
Speaker 1: the signs of a concerted cover up. Let's put this

1716
01:28:32,400 --> 01:28:36,080
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. That's so called independent neurotrauma

1717
01:28:36,160 --> 01:28:40,320
Speaker 1: consultant who evaluated Toua was fired yesterday. That's why we're

1718
01:28:40,360 --> 01:28:43,760
Speaker 1: covering it now today. And it's a little bit complicated

1719
01:28:43,800 --> 01:28:49,240
Speaker 1: because the person was employed with the NFLPA. So like

1720
01:28:49,280 --> 01:28:53,320
Speaker 1: the player's Association and the way that their concussion protocol

1721
01:28:53,360 --> 01:28:56,360
Speaker 1: has it that the NFL Players Association said it had

1722
01:28:56,400 --> 01:28:59,719
Speaker 1: the right to dismiss the consultant. So the consultant himself

1723
01:28:59,760 --> 01:29:03,120
Speaker 1: didn't necessarily work for the team, but the team and

1724
01:29:03,280 --> 01:29:05,840
Speaker 1: the NFL and also the players Association is trying to

1725
01:29:05,880 --> 01:29:08,080
Speaker 1: point the finger at him for saying he's the one

1726
01:29:08,680 --> 01:29:12,240
Speaker 1: screwed up. Exactly he is, clearly because there did the

1727
01:29:12,280 --> 01:29:16,200
Speaker 1: coach say, hey, we really need him, like, okay, even him.

1728
01:29:16,240 --> 01:29:18,240
Speaker 1: I mean, you're look, if I walk into a hospital

1729
01:29:18,280 --> 01:29:20,720
Speaker 1: with a brain injury, are they going to take you know,

1730
01:29:21,200 --> 01:29:23,360
Speaker 1: my declaration that I'm ready to walk out of there.

1731
01:29:23,760 --> 01:29:27,240
Speaker 1: Uh seriously, no, of course, not like that standard. And

1732
01:29:27,280 --> 01:29:30,800
Speaker 1: so did they listen to pressure from him? Then the

1733
01:29:30,840 --> 01:29:33,080
Speaker 1: real decision, which is to play him in the second

1734
01:29:33,080 --> 01:29:36,840
Speaker 1: game after the short week, after already suffering a problem.

1735
01:29:36,880 --> 01:29:40,439
Speaker 1: And I personally feel sick watching that. Hands I've been

1736
01:29:40,479 --> 01:29:43,120
Speaker 1: around people who've had seen years before, and I've watched that,

1737
01:29:43,200 --> 01:29:45,479
Speaker 1: so like immediately, like when you see that and you know,

1738
01:29:45,880 --> 01:29:47,639
Speaker 1: or if you ever watch UFC and you see guy

1739
01:29:47,640 --> 01:29:50,280
Speaker 1: get knocked out cold something like that, it is it's

1740
01:29:50,280 --> 01:29:52,960
Speaker 1: sickening to kind of see it, and you know, the

1741
01:29:53,120 --> 01:29:55,800
Speaker 1: entire country is really riveted and fixated on the story

1742
01:29:55,840 --> 01:29:58,040
Speaker 1: because I think it just shows you that a lot

1743
01:29:58,040 --> 01:30:01,400
Speaker 1: of these guys will go to the ultimate ends of

1744
01:30:01,439 --> 01:30:04,519
Speaker 1: pushing these people, you know, basically for our amusement. And

1745
01:30:04,600 --> 01:30:07,639
Speaker 1: I'm sure they're getting paid, but putting them in immense

1746
01:30:07,680 --> 01:30:12,240
Speaker 1: harms way. It's profit above everything else, is what it is. Yeah,

1747
01:30:12,240 --> 01:30:14,200
Speaker 1: and they just want to obscure the reality. I mean,

1748
01:30:14,240 --> 01:30:15,960
Speaker 1: they should just be clear with us. They're like, yeah, look,

1749
01:30:16,000 --> 01:30:19,080
Speaker 1: our players, let's be real here. They're going to suffer

1750
01:30:19,360 --> 01:30:21,479
Speaker 1: a lot of brain damage. They get paid a hell

1751
01:30:21,520 --> 01:30:24,280
Speaker 1: of a lot of money. The issue comes from people

1752
01:30:24,320 --> 01:30:26,799
Speaker 1: who are in the pipeline, you know, high school players

1753
01:30:26,800 --> 01:30:29,040
Speaker 1: and college players, guys who had no chance of ever

1754
01:30:29,120 --> 01:30:31,640
Speaker 1: going into the NFL. The person who actually told me

1755
01:30:31,640 --> 01:30:34,240
Speaker 1: about the story himself is a friend of mine. He

1756
01:30:34,320 --> 01:30:38,200
Speaker 1: himself suffered a concussion while he was a college player. Wow,

1757
01:30:38,240 --> 01:30:41,599
Speaker 1: a bad college a bad concussion, and his coaches were like, hey,

1758
01:30:41,600 --> 01:30:43,720
Speaker 1: we need he wasn't even on scholarship and he had

1759
01:30:43,760 --> 01:30:46,200
Speaker 1: no chance of playing in the NFL, and they wanted

1760
01:30:46,240 --> 01:30:48,040
Speaker 1: him to keep playing. He's like, no, I'm quitting. I

1761
01:30:48,080 --> 01:30:50,600
Speaker 1: have to save my brain. Well, good for him, but

1762
01:30:50,720 --> 01:30:53,280
Speaker 1: I mean yeah, I mean, these guys are warriors. They're

1763
01:30:53,320 --> 01:30:55,240
Speaker 1: trained to you know. Part of their training is like

1764
01:30:55,280 --> 01:30:57,160
Speaker 1: to be fearless and play through it. And this is

1765
01:30:57,200 --> 01:30:59,000
Speaker 1: the culture in the locker room is like, hey man,

1766
01:30:59,000 --> 01:31:01,240
Speaker 1: you're good, right, Like, get back out there. We need

1767
01:31:01,280 --> 01:31:04,360
Speaker 1: your ass. So that is the culture. That's why you

1768
01:31:04,439 --> 01:31:07,759
Speaker 1: have to have these protocols in place to protect these players.

1769
01:31:07,960 --> 01:31:09,720
Speaker 1: It's also important to keep in mind. I mean, you

1770
01:31:09,800 --> 01:31:13,120
Speaker 1: hear about the stars who were multimillionaires who played long careers,

1771
01:31:13,160 --> 01:31:15,240
Speaker 1: the Brett Farre's of the world, you know, but most

1772
01:31:15,280 --> 01:31:17,880
Speaker 1: of these guys, their careers in the NFL are very short,

1773
01:31:18,160 --> 01:31:21,240
Speaker 1: talking about a couple of years for most of these guys.

1774
01:31:21,640 --> 01:31:25,200
Speaker 1: Now again I haven't I don't follow football closely, but

1775
01:31:25,280 --> 01:31:27,960
Speaker 1: in watching the analysis of what happened here, some of

1776
01:31:27,960 --> 01:31:30,200
Speaker 1: the commentators were saying, you know, the knock on Tua

1777
01:31:30,520 --> 01:31:33,240
Speaker 1: has been that he can't stay healthy. So he has

1778
01:31:33,280 --> 01:31:35,360
Speaker 1: in his head already like I got to prove them

1779
01:31:35,400 --> 01:31:37,360
Speaker 1: wrong that I can stay healthy and I can stay

1780
01:31:37,400 --> 01:31:39,439
Speaker 1: on the field. So then he has this added pressure.

1781
01:31:39,840 --> 01:31:42,240
Speaker 1: I gotta be good. I got to get back out there.

1782
01:31:42,479 --> 01:31:46,320
Speaker 1: That's why you have to protect these players because look,

1783
01:31:46,360 --> 01:31:49,439
Speaker 1: the NFL just settled not too long ago a billion

1784
01:31:49,560 --> 01:31:55,200
Speaker 1: dollar class action lawsuit over exactly this issue that they

1785
01:31:55,360 --> 01:31:58,920
Speaker 1: knew they were causing these head injuries and long term trauma.

1786
01:31:59,080 --> 01:32:01,880
Speaker 1: Because again, when you really start to have an issue

1787
01:32:01,960 --> 01:32:05,240
Speaker 1: is not from the concussion, it's from not allowing the

1788
01:32:05,320 --> 01:32:08,840
Speaker 1: concussion to heal before the player is once again put

1789
01:32:08,920 --> 01:32:11,640
Speaker 1: at risk. That's really where the issue comes in. And

1790
01:32:11,720 --> 01:32:14,840
Speaker 1: so you had all these players alleging like they knew

1791
01:32:14,880 --> 01:32:17,040
Speaker 1: what the science was, they knew what the problems were,

1792
01:32:17,240 --> 01:32:19,880
Speaker 1: and they still push us back on the field. You're talking.

1793
01:32:19,920 --> 01:32:23,320
Speaker 1: I mean Junior Sayau is an example. He killed himself

1794
01:32:23,360 --> 01:32:26,320
Speaker 1: and afterwards they analyzed his brain. Guess what CTE I mean?

1795
01:32:26,400 --> 01:32:28,920
Speaker 1: And Aaron Hernandez, who is like I was talking with

1796
01:32:28,960 --> 01:32:31,360
Speaker 1: our guys before we came on the air. People should

1797
01:32:31,360 --> 01:32:33,840
Speaker 1: go listen to the Boston Globe podcast on Aaron. I mean,

1798
01:32:34,000 --> 01:32:36,879
Speaker 1: he already had a troubled childhood or his own personal problems,

1799
01:32:36,920 --> 01:32:39,720
Speaker 1: but what you know, maybe he was always going to

1800
01:32:39,760 --> 01:32:42,240
Speaker 1: be screwed up, but it seems clear as hell that

1801
01:32:42,600 --> 01:32:44,840
Speaker 1: the CTE did a real number on his brain. At

1802
01:32:44,840 --> 01:32:46,960
Speaker 1: the very least, I'm not going to say it blaming

1803
01:32:47,000 --> 01:32:49,600
Speaker 1: for his murder. But look, you know his suicide and

1804
01:32:49,640 --> 01:32:51,519
Speaker 1: the way that all went down. I mean, he was

1805
01:32:51,600 --> 01:32:55,439
Speaker 1: clearly off his rocker. And when they analyzed his brain,

1806
01:32:55,520 --> 01:32:56,800
Speaker 1: it was like what they said, he had a brain

1807
01:32:56,840 --> 01:32:58,800
Speaker 1: of like an eighty year old man. Wow, and he

1808
01:32:58,880 --> 01:33:00,880
Speaker 1: was like in his twenties when he died. You know,

1809
01:33:00,960 --> 01:33:02,639
Speaker 1: I was also thinking about Joe Rogan was talking about

1810
01:33:02,680 --> 01:33:05,400
Speaker 1: this recently with regards to the Jeff Brett Faire story,

1811
01:33:05,439 --> 01:33:07,120
Speaker 1: and he, you know, giving his own experience in the

1812
01:33:07,160 --> 01:33:09,120
Speaker 1: fighting world, I thought it was a fantastic point. He's like,

1813
01:33:09,280 --> 01:33:11,040
Speaker 1: you know this Brett Farr thing, He's like that guy

1814
01:33:11,320 --> 01:33:13,880
Speaker 1: knocked around for twenty years. He's like, people just make

1815
01:33:13,960 --> 01:33:16,679
Speaker 1: stupid decisions when they have that amount of brain damage.

1816
01:33:16,680 --> 01:33:20,320
Speaker 1: They were impulsive, They do dumb things. They don't think clearly.

1817
01:33:20,479 --> 01:33:22,880
Speaker 1: So it's not just the consequences of right now, like

1818
01:33:22,960 --> 01:33:25,160
Speaker 1: Kenny play, can he not play? Can his brain heal? Yeah?

1819
01:33:25,200 --> 01:33:27,919
Speaker 1: These are lifelong for all the people who are involved.

1820
01:33:27,960 --> 01:33:31,400
Speaker 1: And so the research says if you have a concussion,

1821
01:33:31,439 --> 01:33:33,479
Speaker 1: it takes your brain about two to four weeks to heal.

1822
01:33:33,560 --> 01:33:35,479
Speaker 1: That's a long time. They held to out of a

1823
01:33:35,520 --> 01:33:37,599
Speaker 1: game for like ten minutes before they sent him back

1824
01:33:37,640 --> 01:33:40,240
Speaker 1: in and then four days later he's on the field again.

1825
01:33:40,479 --> 01:33:42,840
Speaker 1: So that's how long it takes. So even after your

1826
01:33:42,880 --> 01:33:45,840
Speaker 1: symptoms abate, you still have weeks of recovery where you

1827
01:33:45,920 --> 01:33:49,040
Speaker 1: need to rest and not be back in a violent

1828
01:33:49,080 --> 01:33:52,400
Speaker 1: sport before you should really be allowed back on the field. Now,

1829
01:33:52,439 --> 01:33:56,599
Speaker 1: if you then suffer a second concussion during that period,

1830
01:33:57,000 --> 01:33:59,599
Speaker 1: this is going to create you know, an immense amount

1831
01:33:59,640 --> 01:34:03,360
Speaker 1: of tryal within the brain. Now you're talking about months

1832
01:34:03,600 --> 01:34:06,680
Speaker 1: for the brain to heal, two to four months, you're

1833
01:34:06,720 --> 01:34:09,040
Speaker 1: talking about then for the brain to heal. This man

1834
01:34:09,040 --> 01:34:10,960
Speaker 1: should not be back on the field again this season.

1835
01:34:11,000 --> 01:34:13,080
Speaker 1: I mean, that's what the science says, is that even

1836
01:34:13,120 --> 01:34:16,719
Speaker 1: if he's not symptomatic, even if he's saying he feels

1837
01:34:16,760 --> 01:34:19,800
Speaker 1: fine and ever, his brain is going to take months

1838
01:34:19,880 --> 01:34:21,920
Speaker 1: to heal from this trauma. And again when you see

1839
01:34:21,960 --> 01:34:24,920
Speaker 1: that what they call the fencing response, that indicates there

1840
01:34:25,040 --> 01:34:28,599
Speaker 1: is there is severe trauma, and especially that impacts the

1841
01:34:28,680 --> 01:34:32,600
Speaker 1: brain stem. So this is a serious, serious issue that

1842
01:34:32,640 --> 01:34:34,639
Speaker 1: needs to be dealt with. And from the NFL, let's

1843
01:34:34,720 --> 01:34:36,680
Speaker 1: be real, the only reason they care about this is

1844
01:34:36,680 --> 01:34:39,679
Speaker 1: because this has been a big issue for their business.

1845
01:34:39,760 --> 01:34:42,160
Speaker 1: They had to pay that billion dollar settlement, So they

1846
01:34:42,160 --> 01:34:45,000
Speaker 1: fire the neurologists. The other thing they did is they

1847
01:34:45,080 --> 01:34:47,160
Speaker 1: put out, I think we have something on this. They

1848
01:34:47,160 --> 01:34:52,559
Speaker 1: put out new concussion guidelines. NFL's concussion protocol under scrutiny.

1849
01:34:52,640 --> 01:34:55,040
Speaker 1: After tongue of Iloa is hit hard again, the NFL

1850
01:34:55,080 --> 01:34:57,960
Speaker 1: said it's concussion protocols were followed when to a tongue

1851
01:34:57,960 --> 01:35:00,320
Speaker 1: of Wiloa hit his head on Sunday, that and of

1852
01:35:00,320 --> 01:35:03,040
Speaker 1: itself massive red flag. If that is the case, that

1853
01:35:03,160 --> 01:35:05,720
Speaker 1: is a huge red flag. On Thursday, the quarterback left

1854
01:35:05,720 --> 01:35:07,880
Speaker 1: the field on a stretcher after a second head hit.

1855
01:35:08,240 --> 01:35:12,720
Speaker 1: What they ultimately did to tighten up these protocols is

1856
01:35:12,760 --> 01:35:16,160
Speaker 1: they said that previously there was this loophole if a

1857
01:35:16,200 --> 01:35:20,080
Speaker 1: player demonstrated gross motor instability, that was considered a no

1858
01:35:20,240 --> 01:35:25,040
Speaker 1: go symptom, but it could be overruled by this supposedly

1859
01:35:25,120 --> 01:35:28,160
Speaker 1: independent neurologist and the team doctor. And oh, by the way,

1860
01:35:28,200 --> 01:35:30,439
Speaker 1: the team doctor gets the final say. And again the

1861
01:35:30,479 --> 01:35:33,479
Speaker 1: team doctor oftentimes incentivized just to get these guys back

1862
01:35:33,520 --> 01:35:36,360
Speaker 1: on the field at any and all costs. So they

1863
01:35:36,360 --> 01:35:39,200
Speaker 1: have now said, no, we are closing that loophole. If

1864
01:35:39,240 --> 01:35:42,960
Speaker 1: there was gross motor instability that has witnessed, then we

1865
01:35:43,160 --> 01:35:45,680
Speaker 1: are not going to allow the player back onto the

1866
01:35:45,720 --> 01:35:48,639
Speaker 1: field during the game. And again, I think the only

1867
01:35:48,680 --> 01:35:50,679
Speaker 1: reason they care about this is because they are worried

1868
01:35:50,720 --> 01:35:52,920
Speaker 1: about the bottom line, because the other issue is the

1869
01:35:52,920 --> 01:35:55,840
Speaker 1: future of the sport. I mean, you know already, I

1870
01:35:55,880 --> 01:35:57,960
Speaker 1: think this has started to be the case where more

1871
01:35:58,000 --> 01:36:00,920
Speaker 1: and more middle class parents look at this and they're like,

1872
01:36:01,000 --> 01:36:02,920
Speaker 1: I'm not putting my kid in the sport. I wouldn't

1873
01:36:02,960 --> 01:36:04,439
Speaker 1: let my I mean personally, I wouldn't let my son

1874
01:36:04,479 --> 01:36:07,320
Speaker 1: play football, not knowing what we know about the brain injury.

1875
01:36:07,360 --> 01:36:10,599
Speaker 1: And so you saw this with boxing, where boxing used

1876
01:36:10,600 --> 01:36:14,320
Speaker 1: to be based like the American sport, and then because

1877
01:36:14,479 --> 01:36:16,720
Speaker 1: of the you know, injuries that are sustained and how

1878
01:36:16,800 --> 01:36:20,240
Speaker 1: dangerous it was, especially in terms of brain injury and

1879
01:36:20,280 --> 01:36:23,759
Speaker 1: brain health, it gradually stops being this like middle class

1880
01:36:23,760 --> 01:36:27,839
Speaker 1: sport and starts being a lower class, working class sport.

1881
01:36:28,280 --> 01:36:31,200
Speaker 1: And you know that has major implications in terms of

1882
01:36:31,240 --> 01:36:34,639
Speaker 1: like the profitability of the game and how much purchase

1883
01:36:34,720 --> 01:36:37,120
Speaker 1: it has within American political culture. So this is the

1884
01:36:37,120 --> 01:36:40,519
Speaker 1: other thing that they ultimately worry about here. So you know,

1885
01:36:40,560 --> 01:36:42,679
Speaker 1: they don't really care about these players, their health, their future.

1886
01:36:42,680 --> 01:36:44,920
Speaker 1: I think they've demonstrated this many many times over, but

1887
01:36:44,960 --> 01:36:47,080
Speaker 1: they are worried about the bottom line and what incidents

1888
01:36:47,080 --> 01:36:48,960
Speaker 1: like this could ultimately do to them. There. Yeah, also

1889
01:36:49,000 --> 01:36:51,639
Speaker 1: the coach said that he was relieved it was quote

1890
01:36:51,760 --> 01:36:55,479
Speaker 1: only a concussion, can you believe that? Well? And only

1891
01:36:55,560 --> 01:36:59,240
Speaker 1: a traumatic braining. And the coach ultimately has the final say,

1892
01:36:59,320 --> 01:37:02,040
Speaker 1: I mean you see player stumbling around again. It did

1893
01:37:02,080 --> 01:37:04,559
Speaker 1: not take or and this is the other thing. Oh

1894
01:37:04,640 --> 01:37:06,599
Speaker 1: and we didn't even mention there's so much to this story.

1895
01:37:07,000 --> 01:37:09,639
Speaker 1: They lied and said this man had a back injury.

1896
01:37:09,960 --> 01:37:14,439
Speaker 1: When he's holding his head stumbling and falling and doesn't

1897
01:37:14,439 --> 01:37:18,040
Speaker 1: know where he is. Anyone can look at that and

1898
01:37:18,080 --> 01:37:20,800
Speaker 1: say that's not a back. He's not holding his back.

1899
01:37:20,960 --> 01:37:23,719
Speaker 1: That wasn't the problem. It was his head. They continue

1900
01:37:23,720 --> 01:37:25,519
Speaker 1: to lie about that, by the way, and say, oh no,

1901
01:37:25,520 --> 01:37:28,559
Speaker 1: it's back injury in the first game. Come on, come on.

1902
01:37:28,720 --> 01:37:31,200
Speaker 1: So I do lay a lot of the blame here

1903
01:37:31,439 --> 01:37:33,360
Speaker 1: at the feet of the coach, who, even if the

1904
01:37:33,400 --> 01:37:35,200
Speaker 1: doctors came back and said no, no no, we think he's good,

1905
01:37:35,200 --> 01:37:37,320
Speaker 1: could have said, you know what, we need to arrest

1906
01:37:37,360 --> 01:37:39,360
Speaker 1: this guy. This is not right. This is not okay,

1907
01:37:39,520 --> 01:37:44,479
Speaker 1: very true, Crystal, what are you taking a look at? Well?

1908
01:37:45,040 --> 01:37:49,400
Speaker 1: Got a bit of bombshells celebrity finance crypto news yesterday.

1909
01:37:49,560 --> 01:37:52,759
Speaker 1: So Kim Kardashian has agreed to settle with the SEC

1910
01:37:53,000 --> 01:37:56,160
Speaker 1: for over a million dollars after failing to disclose she

1911
01:37:56,240 --> 01:37:59,840
Speaker 1: was being paid to promote a now basically dead cryptotoken

1912
01:38:00,120 --> 01:38:02,760
Speaker 1: was called Etherium max. By the way, in spite of

1913
01:38:02,760 --> 01:38:06,000
Speaker 1: the name, ethereum max has no relationship to ethereum. The

1914
01:38:06,040 --> 01:38:08,639
Speaker 1: intentionally confusing naming kind of shows you what a scam

1915
01:38:08,640 --> 01:38:11,280
Speaker 1: it was from the jump. All right, Here's the Instagram

1916
01:38:11,320 --> 01:38:14,120
Speaker 1: post that Kim posted that created all of the iyre

1917
01:38:14,160 --> 01:38:18,040
Speaker 1: among financial regulators. She writes, are you guys into crypto?

1918
01:38:18,479 --> 01:38:21,200
Speaker 1: This is not financial advice, but sharing what my friends

1919
01:38:21,240 --> 01:38:23,720
Speaker 1: just told me about the ethereum max token. A few

1920
01:38:23,720 --> 01:38:27,439
Speaker 1: minutes ago, ethereum max burned four hundred trillion dollars in tokens,

1921
01:38:27,640 --> 01:38:31,120
Speaker 1: literally fifty percent of their admin wallet, giving back to

1922
01:38:31,160 --> 01:38:35,320
Speaker 1: the entire emax community. She then included a bunch of hashtags,

1923
01:38:35,360 --> 01:38:38,000
Speaker 1: including one that indicated this was an ad, but that

1924
01:38:38,080 --> 01:38:41,519
Speaker 1: bare bones disclosure apparently did not impress the SEC. Here's

1925
01:38:41,560 --> 01:38:45,479
Speaker 1: what chair Gary Kensler told CNBC Congress passed a law

1926
01:38:45,720 --> 01:38:48,920
Speaker 1: many decades ago called the Securities Act, and it was

1927
01:38:48,960 --> 01:38:52,280
Speaker 1: to protect the public. And part of that law said

1928
01:38:52,280 --> 01:38:55,440
Speaker 1: that if you taut a stock, you need to disclose

1929
01:38:55,720 --> 01:38:59,120
Speaker 1: not only that you're getting paid, but also the amount,

1930
01:38:59,400 --> 01:39:02,320
Speaker 1: so the sore in the nature of those payments. And

1931
01:39:02,360 --> 01:39:04,600
Speaker 1: so this was to protect the public when folks, and

1932
01:39:04,640 --> 01:39:07,000
Speaker 1: this law was passed to the nineteen thirties. We brought

1933
01:39:07,000 --> 01:39:09,479
Speaker 1: these types of cases over the decades, but even in

1934
01:39:09,520 --> 01:39:12,720
Speaker 1: the last five years with regard to crypto, it's really

1935
01:39:12,760 --> 01:39:16,479
Speaker 1: important that the public understand if somebody is touting a

1936
01:39:16,520 --> 01:39:20,600
Speaker 1: crypto security token, that are they getting paid and how

1937
01:39:20,680 --> 01:39:22,400
Speaker 1: much are they getting paid. And we brought a case

1938
01:39:22,400 --> 01:39:24,880
Speaker 1: a number of years ago, I think four years ago

1939
01:39:25,200 --> 01:39:32,320
Speaker 1: against Floyd Mayweather, against DJ Khalid, Steve Segal, an actor,

1940
01:39:32,800 --> 01:39:35,840
Speaker 1: and others over the years. So this is unfortunately, it's

1941
01:39:35,840 --> 01:39:39,400
Speaker 1: another time that we brought. So basically what happened here

1942
01:39:39,400 --> 01:39:41,400
Speaker 1: is Kardashian, a bunch of other celebrities too, by the way,

1943
01:39:41,400 --> 01:39:44,439
Speaker 1: including NBA player Paul Pierce, boxing champce Lloyd Maybeler Junior.

1944
01:39:44,520 --> 01:39:46,599
Speaker 1: They all got paid a bunch of cash in Kardashian's case,

1945
01:39:46,640 --> 01:39:48,160
Speaker 1: I think it was two hundred and fifty K to

1946
01:39:48,240 --> 01:39:50,760
Speaker 1: tell this ethereum max thing and to talk it up.

1947
01:39:50,880 --> 01:39:54,000
Speaker 1: According to a different class action lawsuit, their plugs artificially

1948
01:39:54,000 --> 01:39:56,800
Speaker 1: boosted the price and left ordinary investors holding the bag

1949
01:39:56,920 --> 01:40:00,600
Speaker 1: when the whole thing promptly lost ninety seven per of

1950
01:40:00,640 --> 01:40:03,639
Speaker 1: its total value. In other words, looks like a classic

1951
01:40:03,720 --> 01:40:06,400
Speaker 1: pump and dump kind of a scheme. Now, Kardashian, as

1952
01:40:06,400 --> 01:40:09,160
Speaker 1: I've indicated, far from the only offender here. In terms

1953
01:40:09,160 --> 01:40:12,720
Speaker 1: of crypto and also NFT promotions. You had Reese Witherspoon

1954
01:40:12,960 --> 01:40:16,639
Speaker 1: Spoon backing some cringey girl boss NFT thing. Matt Damon

1955
01:40:16,760 --> 01:40:19,519
Speaker 1: recorded a Super Bowl crypto ad trying to persuade viewers

1956
01:40:19,520 --> 01:40:22,679
Speaker 1: that investing in crypto will lead to historic greatness for them.

1957
01:40:23,040 --> 01:40:26,080
Speaker 1: Gwynth Paltrow taking time off from selling Vagina candles to

1958
01:40:26,120 --> 01:40:29,040
Speaker 1: sell board ape NFTs. I could go on and on

1959
01:40:29,120 --> 01:40:32,200
Speaker 1: here for celebrities getting a cash payday for promoting these

1960
01:40:32,240 --> 01:40:34,960
Speaker 1: schemes was quick and easy for those who were behind

1961
01:40:35,000 --> 01:40:37,560
Speaker 1: the coins and NFTs, while the whole ecosystem has just

1962
01:40:37,600 --> 01:40:40,080
Speaker 1: built on hype and selling a story anyway, So who

1963
01:40:40,160 --> 01:40:43,160
Speaker 1: better to push that story than the celebrities our society

1964
01:40:43,240 --> 01:40:46,679
Speaker 1: has become so incredibly invested in the government clearly wants

1965
01:40:46,680 --> 01:40:49,200
Speaker 1: to make an example out of Kim Kardashian. Here. In

1966
01:40:49,280 --> 01:40:51,920
Speaker 1: addition to Gensler making the media rounds and placing stories

1967
01:40:51,920 --> 01:40:55,360
Speaker 1: in top newspapers, the SEC even filmed this little video,

1968
01:40:55,600 --> 01:40:58,480
Speaker 1: very highly produced to use the occasion of the Kardashian

1969
01:40:58,560 --> 01:41:02,400
Speaker 1: fine to warn and about falling for crypto schemes that

1970
01:41:02,439 --> 01:41:05,880
Speaker 1: are touted by influencers. Good. They should do more of that.

1971
01:41:06,080 --> 01:41:08,559
Speaker 1: They should make it absolutely clear to celebrities that their

1972
01:41:08,600 --> 01:41:12,080
Speaker 1: shameless crypto and NFT scam shilling comes with a cost,

1973
01:41:12,360 --> 01:41:15,320
Speaker 1: because unfortunately, this problem is actually way bigger than we

1974
01:41:15,400 --> 01:41:18,080
Speaker 1: might like to imagine. According to a Morning Console, a

1975
01:41:18,120 --> 01:41:22,599
Speaker 1: full twenty percent of American adults saw Kim's little Ethereum

1976
01:41:22,640 --> 01:41:26,120
Speaker 1: max Instagram post. That is shocking to me. Nineteen percent

1977
01:41:26,160 --> 01:41:28,439
Speaker 1: of those who said they saw the ad then went

1978
01:41:28,520 --> 01:41:32,320
Speaker 1: and invested in this scam that is so disturbing on

1979
01:41:32,439 --> 01:41:35,599
Speaker 1: so many levels and demonstrates that Kim's million dollar fine

1980
01:41:35,640 --> 01:41:38,880
Speaker 1: is frankly nothing compared to the damage that she ultimately cost.

1981
01:41:39,240 --> 01:41:41,840
Speaker 1: And again, this is a currency that promptly pursueded to

1982
01:41:41,920 --> 01:41:44,920
Speaker 1: lose ninety seven percent of its value once the fairy

1983
01:41:44,960 --> 01:41:48,360
Speaker 1: tale of wealth and glamour instantly fell apart. What's more,

1984
01:41:48,880 --> 01:41:51,599
Speaker 1: forty five percent of current crypto owners say they would

1985
01:41:51,640 --> 01:41:54,519
Speaker 1: be more likely to invest in a cryptocurrency if they

1986
01:41:54,600 --> 01:41:58,840
Speaker 1: saw a celebrity endorsement for it. Guys, please, for the

1987
01:41:58,920 --> 01:42:01,800
Speaker 1: love of God, don't do that. These people do not

1988
01:42:01,840 --> 01:42:03,400
Speaker 1: care about you. They don't give a shit if you

1989
01:42:03,439 --> 01:42:05,919
Speaker 1: lose everything. They are just cashing in on our celebrity

1990
01:42:05,920 --> 01:42:08,759
Speaker 1: obsessed culture and could give a damn about the wreckage

1991
01:42:08,800 --> 01:42:12,040
Speaker 1: that they ultimately leave behind. As crypto critic and himself

1992
01:42:12,040 --> 01:42:15,880
Speaker 1: Hollywood guy Ben mackenzie writes, the hollywoodization of crypto is

1993
01:42:15,960 --> 01:42:19,479
Speaker 1: a moral disaster, and for celebrities fans, who likely have

1994
01:42:19,560 --> 01:42:22,360
Speaker 1: far less money to lose, it's potentially a financial one

1995
01:42:22,400 --> 01:42:25,120
Speaker 1: as well. These rich and famous entertainers might as well

1996
01:42:25,120 --> 01:42:27,880
Speaker 1: be pushing payday loans or seating their audience at a

1997
01:42:28,000 --> 01:42:32,040
Speaker 1: rigged blackjack table. Well said, but fully considering the case

1998
01:42:32,080 --> 01:42:35,160
Speaker 1: of Kardashian is also to realize how much scamming behavior

1999
01:42:35,240 --> 01:42:38,320
Speaker 1: is apparently perfectly legal in this realm. Point that Andrew

2000
01:42:38,400 --> 01:42:41,479
Speaker 1: Ross Sorkin actually made in his interview with Gunsler. How

2001
01:42:41,520 --> 01:42:45,280
Speaker 1: does that differ, for example, from others who make similar posts,

2002
01:42:45,280 --> 01:42:48,920
Speaker 1: who may own in fact different cryptos or other securities

2003
01:42:49,200 --> 01:42:52,280
Speaker 1: and promoting them. I'm thinking of Michael Saylor from micro Strategies,

2004
01:42:52,280 --> 01:42:53,639
Speaker 1: who has a huge stake and this has been out

2005
01:42:53,640 --> 01:42:56,559
Speaker 1: promoting online and elsewhere. Or you can even talk about

2006
01:42:56,560 --> 01:42:59,120
Speaker 1: an Elon Musk who's talked about dogecoin. They may not

2007
01:42:59,160 --> 01:43:02,640
Speaker 1: be being page specifically cash to promote those things, but

2008
01:43:02,640 --> 01:43:05,559
Speaker 1: they have such a large investment in them that they

2009
01:43:05,600 --> 01:43:08,280
Speaker 1: have even more at stake. Frankly, now, Kensler didn't really

2010
01:43:08,280 --> 01:43:10,639
Speaker 1: answer that question, but it's clear that the crackdown should

2011
01:43:10,640 --> 01:43:12,800
Speaker 1: go a lot further because the whole sector is rife

2012
01:43:12,840 --> 01:43:14,960
Speaker 1: with fraud, with rug poles, with pump and dumps, and

2013
01:43:15,000 --> 01:43:17,759
Speaker 1: just regular people being sold a pack of lives. Honestly,

2014
01:43:18,080 --> 01:43:20,680
Speaker 1: Kardashian is just the tip of the iceberg here. The

2015
01:43:20,720 --> 01:43:23,439
Speaker 1: whole thing makes me so sad. After two thousand and

2016
01:43:23,479 --> 01:43:26,519
Speaker 1: eight was clear the traditional banking system had failed the world.

2017
01:43:26,600 --> 01:43:28,920
Speaker 1: It was clear the regulators had either been asleep of

2018
01:43:29,000 --> 01:43:32,280
Speaker 1: the switch or actively complicit in the whole catastrophic debacle.

2019
01:43:32,600 --> 01:43:35,280
Speaker 1: One response to that was demanding that Congress shut down

2020
01:43:35,280 --> 01:43:38,280
Speaker 1: the casino returned banking to being boring and stable by

2021
01:43:38,400 --> 01:43:41,960
Speaker 1: reinstituting the regulations which served us well for decades following

2022
01:43:41,960 --> 01:43:45,000
Speaker 1: the Great Depression. In other words, have the government step

2023
01:43:45,040 --> 01:43:48,639
Speaker 1: in with stronger loss and real enforcement. The other response

2024
01:43:48,720 --> 01:43:51,080
Speaker 1: was to give up on government altogether, and that instinct

2025
01:43:51,120 --> 01:43:54,599
Speaker 1: is embodied by the radical libertarian dream of crypto, and honestly,

2026
01:43:54,680 --> 01:43:56,960
Speaker 1: I was pretty sympathetic to it and the idealism that

2027
01:43:57,120 --> 01:43:59,320
Speaker 1: is at its core creating a currency that could be

2028
01:43:59,320 --> 01:44:02,000
Speaker 1: important for disas cidents, or for citizens living under repressive

2029
01:44:02,000 --> 01:44:05,160
Speaker 1: regimes or which have been hit by cruel and unfair sanctions.

2030
01:44:05,400 --> 01:44:09,439
Speaker 1: I genuinely understand that appeal, But the reality is they

2031
01:44:09,439 --> 01:44:13,760
Speaker 1: have just recreated all the problems of the skeasiest, scummiest

2032
01:44:13,920 --> 01:44:17,240
Speaker 1: parts of our financial system, with many fewer avenues for

2033
01:44:17,240 --> 01:44:20,800
Speaker 1: accountability and enforcement from the government, all of the pitfalls,

2034
01:44:21,080 --> 01:44:24,599
Speaker 1: none of the US government backing or backstops. Ultimately, it

2035
01:44:24,680 --> 01:44:27,080
Speaker 1: is too perfect that this hollow answer to the core

2036
01:44:27,080 --> 01:44:29,760
Speaker 1: problems of our society would be pumped up by the

2037
01:44:29,800 --> 01:44:33,200
Speaker 1: hollowest and most vapid creatures among us and Saber. This

2038
01:44:33,240 --> 01:44:35,559
Speaker 1: is really a live issue. Part of why you see

2039
01:44:35,560 --> 01:44:37,080
Speaker 1: people as Sam and if you want to hear my

2040
01:44:37,240 --> 01:44:40,639
Speaker 1: reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at

2041
01:44:40,640 --> 01:44:46,000
Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot Com. All right, Sager, you're looking at it. Well,

2042
01:44:46,080 --> 01:44:47,519
Speaker 1: there's been so much going on in the world that

2043
01:44:47,600 --> 01:44:50,719
Speaker 1: literally feels dizzying. Of course, taking attention off many many topics.

2044
01:44:50,880 --> 01:44:52,840
Speaker 1: But if we proceed under the hope that I maintain

2045
01:44:52,920 --> 01:44:55,439
Speaker 1: there will be no nuclear armor get in, then it

2046
01:44:55,479 --> 01:44:57,720
Speaker 1: is still important to pay attention to the other big

2047
01:44:57,760 --> 01:45:01,639
Speaker 1: stories that mattered in the before times before Ukraine was COVID,

2048
01:45:01,760 --> 01:45:04,200
Speaker 1: the COVID pandemic, the embrace in this country of a

2049
01:45:04,240 --> 01:45:08,120
Speaker 1: new regime of censorship, of social control, unprecedented elite consensus

2050
01:45:08,120 --> 01:45:10,360
Speaker 1: about what everyone should do with their own bodies. I've

2051
01:45:10,400 --> 01:45:14,360
Speaker 1: always said it's impossible to decouple policy that followed from

2052
01:45:14,400 --> 01:45:18,040
Speaker 1: the pandemic from the debate about where COVID came from

2053
01:45:18,120 --> 01:45:21,920
Speaker 1: in the first place. The authoritarianism and corruption that stopped

2054
01:45:22,000 --> 01:45:25,000
Speaker 1: legitimate inquiry into whether COVID leaked from the lab was

2055
01:45:25,240 --> 01:45:28,519
Speaker 1: a microcosm of exactly what went wrong with the debate

2056
01:45:28,600 --> 01:45:32,880
Speaker 1: in the first place. Developments this week prove exactly why

2057
01:45:32,960 --> 01:45:35,439
Speaker 1: more than two years later, the inability of the media

2058
01:45:35,520 --> 01:45:38,040
Speaker 1: or elite to ever have an honest conversation with America

2059
01:45:38,320 --> 01:45:42,040
Speaker 1: leaves us more vulnerable today than ever before, and that

2060
01:45:42,160 --> 01:45:46,280
Speaker 1: latest development in the lab leak story is unbelievable. Unbelievable.

2061
01:45:46,479 --> 01:45:48,640
Speaker 1: Doctor Fauci, in the waning months of his tenure as

2062
01:45:48,680 --> 01:45:51,720
Speaker 1: head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

2063
01:45:52,000 --> 01:45:56,439
Speaker 1: is giving out a grant for research on backed coronaviruses.

2064
01:45:57,280 --> 01:45:59,679
Speaker 1: If that grant of research wasn't bad enough, the person

2065
01:45:59,680 --> 01:46:03,320
Speaker 1: who was awarded the grant is none other than Peter Dazac,

2066
01:46:03,560 --> 01:46:06,519
Speaker 1: who is the head of Eco Health Alliance. If you

2067
01:46:06,600 --> 01:46:09,839
Speaker 1: are not familiar, let's take a trip back down memory lane.

2068
01:46:09,920 --> 01:46:12,960
Speaker 1: Peter Dazac and the EcoHealth Alliance are the organization which

2069
01:46:13,000 --> 01:46:16,799
Speaker 1: received a grant from doctor Fauci and the NIAID before

2070
01:46:16,840 --> 01:46:19,960
Speaker 1: the COVID nineteen pandemic. It served as a cutout for

2071
01:46:20,040 --> 01:46:23,320
Speaker 1: funding of something called gain of function research at the

2072
01:46:23,360 --> 01:46:27,719
Speaker 1: Wuhan Institute of Virology. That type of research effectively involves

2073
01:46:27,920 --> 01:46:31,439
Speaker 1: brewing up new types of viruses in the lab for

2074
01:46:31,479 --> 01:46:34,720
Speaker 1: the purpose of trying to predict future pandemics that might

2075
01:46:34,760 --> 01:46:38,880
Speaker 1: arise naturally, and then creating vaccines or antidotes to those viruses.

2076
01:46:39,160 --> 01:46:42,120
Speaker 1: The research was actually barred by the Obama administration for

2077
01:46:42,160 --> 01:46:45,800
Speaker 1: being too risky in twenty fourteen. It was though violated

2078
01:46:45,880 --> 01:46:49,680
Speaker 1: and eventually reversed by doctor Fauci under Donald Trump. The

2079
01:46:49,760 --> 01:46:52,479
Speaker 1: key to that story is that Fauci's funding of gain

2080
01:46:52,520 --> 01:46:54,720
Speaker 1: of function research at the lab and the role of

2081
01:46:54,760 --> 01:46:58,760
Speaker 1: doctor Peter Dazak, was a major point of vulnerability in

2082
01:46:58,800 --> 01:47:02,200
Speaker 1: the opening days of the pandemic, when emails revealed that

2083
01:47:02,280 --> 01:47:05,519
Speaker 1: the initial reaction by those who looked at the emerging

2084
01:47:05,560 --> 01:47:09,320
Speaker 1: coronavirus in January of twenty twenty was COVID nineteen almost

2085
01:47:09,360 --> 01:47:12,160
Speaker 1: certainly came from a lab, as I have shown here

2086
01:47:12,240 --> 01:47:15,080
Speaker 1: before with government documents since released. In the span of

2087
01:47:15,160 --> 01:47:18,799
Speaker 1: just two weeks, a full blown cover up ensued. Doctor Fauci,

2088
01:47:18,880 --> 01:47:21,040
Speaker 1: working with others who relied on him for grant money,

2089
01:47:21,240 --> 01:47:24,280
Speaker 1: actively got a false article published which declared that COVID

2090
01:47:24,320 --> 01:47:27,680
Speaker 1: did not leak from the Wuhan Lab, setting the scientific consensus.

2091
01:47:27,880 --> 01:47:31,120
Speaker 1: That paper served as a justification for a now infamous

2092
01:47:31,200 --> 01:47:34,080
Speaker 1: letter published by The Lancet in February twenty twenty, which

2093
01:47:34,160 --> 01:47:38,400
Speaker 1: quote strongly condemned any rumors or conspiracy theorists so called,

2094
01:47:38,560 --> 01:47:41,280
Speaker 1: who believed that COVID came from the lab. From there,

2095
01:47:41,439 --> 01:47:44,559
Speaker 1: the position became doctrine and it was impossible to question.

2096
01:47:44,840 --> 01:47:48,520
Speaker 1: Twitter accounts were suspended for suggesting it. YouTube accounts were disabled,

2097
01:47:48,680 --> 01:47:51,160
Speaker 1: full scale censorship at the highest level of our government,

2098
01:47:51,479 --> 01:47:53,960
Speaker 1: and then the facts began to come out. The first

2099
01:47:53,960 --> 01:47:57,080
Speaker 1: crack in the establishment's armor was Dazac himself, who might

2100
01:47:57,120 --> 01:47:59,200
Speaker 1: be one of the most corrupt figures in this story

2101
01:47:59,280 --> 01:48:02,640
Speaker 1: other than Fauci. Dazak was appointed as a member of

2102
01:48:02,680 --> 01:48:06,920
Speaker 1: the World Health Organization's task force responsible for investigating whether

2103
01:48:07,080 --> 01:48:09,960
Speaker 1: COVID lead from the lab in the first place. Miraculously,

2104
01:48:10,160 --> 01:48:13,519
Speaker 1: guess what they found. It didn't the justification, well, he

2105
01:48:13,600 --> 01:48:16,320
Speaker 1: had no access to the data, but he took the

2106
01:48:16,400 --> 01:48:19,280
Speaker 1: Chinese word for it. Seriously, That's what he said when

2107
01:48:19,280 --> 01:48:21,840
Speaker 1: he was pressed. Let's take a listen. We met with him.

2108
01:48:21,880 --> 01:48:25,320
Speaker 1: We said, do you audit the lab? And they said annually?

2109
01:48:25,720 --> 01:48:28,880
Speaker 1: Did you audit it after the outbreak? Yes? Was anything found? No?

2110
01:48:29,360 --> 01:48:32,599
Speaker 1: Do you test your staff? Yes? No, you're just taking

2111
01:48:32,640 --> 01:48:34,960
Speaker 1: their word for it. Well, what else can we do?

2112
01:48:35,640 --> 01:48:38,519
Speaker 1: From there? Things get really began to spiral. The former

2113
01:48:38,560 --> 01:48:42,439
Speaker 1: CDC director Robert Redfield told doctor Sanjay Gupta on CNN

2114
01:48:42,760 --> 01:48:46,519
Speaker 1: he believed from the beginning COVID leaked from the Wuhan lab,

2115
01:48:46,680 --> 01:48:49,040
Speaker 1: that he had seen evidence to back that up, and

2116
01:48:49,040 --> 01:48:52,360
Speaker 1: that he was retaliated against by the bureaucracy from believing it.

2117
01:48:52,680 --> 01:48:55,920
Speaker 1: From there, reams of evidence began to pour out that

2118
01:48:56,000 --> 01:48:59,160
Speaker 1: I've covered here before, research showing sickness coming out of

2119
01:48:59,160 --> 01:49:03,000
Speaker 1: the lab in Dovermber twenty nineteen, athletes getting sick in China,

2120
01:49:03,280 --> 01:49:06,000
Speaker 1: search data for symptoms of COVID, the fact that the

2121
01:49:06,040 --> 01:49:08,960
Speaker 1: structure of the virus itself has always looked to be

2122
01:49:09,120 --> 01:49:12,960
Speaker 1: lab made. At this point, even the scientific community and

2123
01:49:13,000 --> 01:49:15,919
Speaker 1: the Medical Journal of the Lancet have retracted its declaration

2124
01:49:16,000 --> 01:49:17,800
Speaker 1: that there is no way COVID came from the lab,

2125
01:49:17,960 --> 01:49:21,040
Speaker 1: and at least admit today it is just as likely

2126
01:49:21,120 --> 01:49:23,960
Speaker 1: that it did, just as likely that it didn't, given

2127
01:49:23,960 --> 01:49:25,760
Speaker 1: the amount of evidence to show a full scale cover

2128
01:49:25,840 --> 01:49:28,839
Speaker 1: up by the Chinese starting in September twenty nineteen onward,

2129
01:49:29,040 --> 01:49:31,559
Speaker 1: I have no doubt that it did leak from the lab.

2130
01:49:31,760 --> 01:49:34,240
Speaker 1: But okay, let's say we don't know. That's just conjecture

2131
01:49:34,280 --> 01:49:37,439
Speaker 1: on my part. Let's say there's only a fifty percent chance.

2132
01:49:37,880 --> 01:49:40,720
Speaker 1: Fifty percent is pretty damn high for a virus that

2133
01:49:40,840 --> 01:49:44,240
Speaker 1: killed millions of people, and worse, a virus created with

2134
01:49:44,320 --> 01:49:47,960
Speaker 1: research possibly funded by the United States. If the risk

2135
01:49:48,120 --> 01:49:50,439
Speaker 1: is that high, then maybe we just shouldn't do that

2136
01:49:50,560 --> 01:49:53,679
Speaker 1: research at all anymore. That's the problem with what has occurred.

2137
01:49:53,960 --> 01:49:57,240
Speaker 1: After everything, After the exposure of Dazac as a liar

2138
01:49:57,280 --> 01:50:00,879
Speaker 1: and a Chinese stooge, as himself active in the campaign

2139
01:50:01,000 --> 01:50:04,080
Speaker 1: to save his own ass and Fauci, Fauci, still on

2140
01:50:04,160 --> 01:50:06,519
Speaker 1: his way out, gives him a US government grant to

2141
01:50:06,600 --> 01:50:10,360
Speaker 1: research back coronaviruses in Southeast Asia? Have we learned nothing?

2142
01:50:10,400 --> 01:50:13,799
Speaker 1: People studying these viruses and engineering them may have started

2143
01:50:13,800 --> 01:50:16,320
Speaker 1: this whole damn thing. You're gonna fund the same guy

2144
01:50:16,320 --> 01:50:18,960
Speaker 1: who literally funded the Wuhan lab. I feel like I'm

2145
01:50:18,960 --> 01:50:21,560
Speaker 1: taking crazy pills watching this all unfold. And also the

2146
01:50:21,640 --> 01:50:24,160
Speaker 1: lack of media reaction. At the very least it has

2147
01:50:24,200 --> 01:50:26,519
Speaker 1: to be a story that Fauci rewards a long time

2148
01:50:26,600 --> 01:50:29,759
Speaker 1: controversial ally a grant on the way out, but nothing.

2149
01:50:30,160 --> 01:50:33,280
Speaker 1: The lack of media inquiry on this sh shows how

2150
01:50:33,280 --> 01:50:36,240
Speaker 1: complicit these people are and perhaps one of the greatest

2151
01:50:36,240 --> 01:50:39,200
Speaker 1: cover ups in American history and one which way they

2152
01:50:39,240 --> 01:50:42,040
Speaker 1: will look back on will not be kind to principal

2153
01:50:42,040 --> 01:50:45,400
Speaker 1: figures that I've mentioned here today. I only pray the

2154
01:50:45,439 --> 01:50:48,640
Speaker 1: same lab league doesn't happen again. But since literally the

2155
01:50:48,720 --> 01:50:52,480
Speaker 1: exact same players are involved, why should we be so optimistic?

2156
01:50:52,920 --> 01:50:55,479
Speaker 1: I guess we'll wear a mask that should do the trick.

2157
01:50:55,760 --> 01:50:59,760
Speaker 1: I mean, Crystal, Peter Dazak look a word, and if

2158
01:50:59,760 --> 01:51:02,679
Speaker 1: you like to hear my reaction to Sagre's monologue, become

2159
01:51:02,680 --> 01:51:08,519
Speaker 1: a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. One thing

2160
01:51:08,520 --> 01:51:11,120
Speaker 1: we've been talking here a lot about is the media

2161
01:51:11,200 --> 01:51:14,400
Speaker 1: coverage of Russia's war in Ukraine and how they have

2162
01:51:14,520 --> 01:51:17,759
Speaker 1: not laid out any of the downsides of our strategy whatsoever,

2163
01:51:17,800 --> 01:51:20,479
Speaker 1: and how important it is to ultimately push for peace.

2164
01:51:20,760 --> 01:51:22,639
Speaker 1: One of the voices who have been sounding the alarm

2165
01:51:22,720 --> 01:51:24,760
Speaker 1: is Bronco Marcetik. He joins us now. He's a writer

2166
01:51:24,880 --> 01:51:28,080
Speaker 1: for Jacobin and also author of the book Yesterday's Man,

2167
01:51:28,120 --> 01:51:31,280
Speaker 1: The Case against Joe Biden. Great to see Rugo, Oh,

2168
01:51:31,520 --> 01:51:34,040
Speaker 1: thanks for having me, good Sezer. I wanted to put

2169
01:51:34,040 --> 01:51:36,160
Speaker 1: this pulling up on the screen first. We've mentioned this

2170
01:51:36,200 --> 01:51:37,679
Speaker 1: a few times in the show, but I think it's

2171
01:51:37,800 --> 01:51:39,439
Speaker 1: important to break it down. This is from the Quincy

2172
01:51:39,479 --> 01:51:41,559
Speaker 1: Institute for Responsible state Craft. They're one of the only

2173
01:51:41,600 --> 01:51:43,880
Speaker 1: outlets that's been interested in like how the American public

2174
01:51:43,960 --> 01:51:47,479
Speaker 1: feels about diplomacy. And you have really half of voters

2175
01:51:47,520 --> 01:51:50,720
Speaker 1: who say the US should be doing more diplomatically to

2176
01:51:50,800 --> 01:51:53,840
Speaker 1: help end the war in Ukraine, and yet this view

2177
01:51:53,920 --> 01:51:58,559
Speaker 1: is not heard anywhere practically in the media. What did

2178
01:51:58,600 --> 01:52:01,800
Speaker 1: you make of these pollingers, I mean, to me, it

2179
01:52:01,880 --> 01:52:06,439
Speaker 1: illustrated the really stark divide between the discourse and the

2180
01:52:06,439 --> 01:52:11,640
Speaker 1: mainstream press, not just the mainstream press, all media and

2181
01:52:11,720 --> 01:52:15,400
Speaker 1: a discourse particularly in social media, compared to what is

2182
01:52:16,080 --> 01:52:19,439
Speaker 1: the ordinary people. Ordinary American people actually believe that the

2183
01:52:19,479 --> 01:52:22,040
Speaker 1: majority of the US public beliefs and this is not

2184
01:52:22,160 --> 01:52:24,080
Speaker 1: just the United States. I mean, there was a pole

2185
01:52:24,120 --> 01:52:28,280
Speaker 1: in Germany that showed most Germans, who are really feeling

2186
01:52:28,280 --> 01:52:33,840
Speaker 1: pretty harshly the economic blowback of the sanctions, they want

2187
01:52:34,360 --> 01:52:37,040
Speaker 1: more diplomacy to try end the war. This is also

2188
01:52:38,040 --> 01:52:41,960
Speaker 1: the prevailing opinion in most of the rest of the world,

2189
01:52:42,360 --> 01:52:45,160
Speaker 1: in the global South. You know, there was this waters

2190
01:52:45,200 --> 01:52:48,600
Speaker 1: report not too long ago that quoted an African diplomat

2191
01:52:48,880 --> 01:52:51,439
Speaker 1: who said, you know, I'm paraphrasing here, but he said

2192
01:52:51,520 --> 01:52:55,639
Speaker 1: this idea that we're hearing from the West, the war

2193
01:52:55,960 --> 01:52:57,720
Speaker 1: must simply just go on and on and on, and

2194
01:52:57,720 --> 01:53:01,320
Speaker 1: there shouldn't be any diplomatic engagement end. It is completely

2195
01:53:01,320 --> 01:53:03,960
Speaker 1: bizarre to us. We don't understand it at all. You know,

2196
01:53:04,000 --> 01:53:06,559
Speaker 1: you can look at some of the other countries, countries

2197
01:53:06,560 --> 01:53:12,280
Speaker 1: like Turkey or say Mexico, who have attempted to try

2198
01:53:12,400 --> 01:53:15,519
Speaker 1: and broke us some sort or peace agreement. Turkey apparently

2199
01:53:15,560 --> 01:53:20,160
Speaker 1: successfully had broken an agreement in March until a culmination

2200
01:53:20,240 --> 01:53:23,840
Speaker 1: of the Butcher massacre and Boris Johnson's surprise trip to

2201
01:53:23,920 --> 01:53:28,040
Speaker 1: kievs scuttled that. You've also got Mexico. You know, I'm

2202
01:53:28,640 --> 01:53:31,559
Speaker 1: the Mexican president who's a left wing president. He put

2203
01:53:31,600 --> 01:53:36,720
Speaker 1: forward his own peace steel to the u N not

2204
01:53:36,720 --> 01:53:39,080
Speaker 1: too long ago, you know, I mean, it was unsuccessful,

2205
01:53:39,080 --> 01:53:41,880
Speaker 1: but still it shows that there is a largely a

2206
01:53:41,880 --> 01:53:43,519
Speaker 1: push and much of the world to end us. Because

2207
01:53:43,680 --> 01:53:46,759
Speaker 1: we have to remember, obviously, the people who are feeling

2208
01:53:47,120 --> 01:53:50,719
Speaker 1: the effects and then the horror of this war, Britain's invasion.

2209
01:53:50,760 --> 01:53:54,320
Speaker 1: The first and foremost are Ukrainians, of course, but it's

2210
01:53:54,400 --> 01:53:57,559
Speaker 1: not just Ukrainians that are suffering that the economic blowback

2211
01:53:58,040 --> 01:54:00,479
Speaker 1: of the war, of the sanctions being felt around the

2212
01:54:00,520 --> 01:54:04,040
Speaker 1: world really really brutally. You know, there's food shortages, there's

2213
01:54:04,040 --> 01:54:06,960
Speaker 1: political instability, and we're seeing some of that creeping into

2214
01:54:07,000 --> 01:54:10,080
Speaker 1: Western Europe as well, well, not just Westing Europe, all

2215
01:54:10,080 --> 01:54:14,360
Speaker 1: of Europe. There is a tremendous amount of fear for

2216
01:54:14,439 --> 01:54:17,200
Speaker 1: what's going to happen during the winter that's coming that's

2217
01:54:17,200 --> 01:54:21,679
Speaker 1: going to seems to be especially brutal. You've seen protests.

2218
01:54:21,720 --> 01:54:24,800
Speaker 1: There was a protest some a month or two ago

2219
01:54:24,840 --> 01:54:27,800
Speaker 1: in Prague. I think about seventy thousand people were protesting,

2220
01:54:27,920 --> 01:54:30,360
Speaker 1: you know, calling for the end of sanctions. Uh. There

2221
01:54:30,439 --> 01:54:36,160
Speaker 1: was recently protests in Moldova. Hungary has come under a

2222
01:54:36,640 --> 01:54:40,160
Speaker 1: pretty pretty intense political strain because of this as well.

2223
01:54:40,160 --> 01:54:44,120
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of unhappiness by the general population

2224
01:54:44,240 --> 01:54:47,240
Speaker 1: because of the effect of the sanctions. So there's there's

2225
01:54:47,520 --> 01:54:50,240
Speaker 1: a lot going on here that I think we have

2226
01:54:50,280 --> 01:54:51,720
Speaker 1: to think about. We have to think about this in

2227
01:54:51,720 --> 01:54:54,600
Speaker 1: a much broader way than just you know, in terms

2228
01:54:54,640 --> 01:54:59,160
Speaker 1: of kind of pushing for a war that they may

2229
01:54:59,200 --> 01:55:02,200
Speaker 1: be years long or even never ending. That you know,

2230
01:55:02,440 --> 01:55:04,360
Speaker 1: something I wonder about is when I was a kid,

2231
01:55:04,480 --> 01:55:06,920
Speaker 1: we invaded Iraq and there were thousands of people in

2232
01:55:06,920 --> 01:55:09,800
Speaker 1: the streets kind of protesting against it. Right now, we're

2233
01:55:09,800 --> 01:55:13,800
Speaker 1: probably closer to a nuclear strike. I'm not saying it's

2234
01:55:13,880 --> 01:55:16,400
Speaker 1: very likely, but closer than any times it's a Cuban

2235
01:55:16,400 --> 01:55:19,360
Speaker 1: missile crisis. I don't really see any domestic strife about

2236
01:55:19,400 --> 01:55:21,120
Speaker 1: that at all. Why do you think it is that

2237
01:55:21,200 --> 01:55:24,000
Speaker 1: a media thing? Like people don't understand it, or people

2238
01:55:24,240 --> 01:55:26,640
Speaker 1: just think it's too abstract, Like where are we in

2239
01:55:26,640 --> 01:55:30,160
Speaker 1: that process? You know? I don't know. I think it's

2240
01:55:30,200 --> 01:55:32,840
Speaker 1: a culmination of things I have found myself over this

2241
01:55:32,880 --> 01:55:36,680
Speaker 1: week in the incredibly surreal position where you know, I

2242
01:55:36,760 --> 01:55:40,440
Speaker 1: always thought growing up that if the world ever came

2243
01:55:40,960 --> 01:55:44,320
Speaker 1: close to the nuclear wars that did in the early sixties,

2244
01:55:44,920 --> 01:55:48,919
Speaker 1: that the hottest thing would be to pressure those empowered

2245
01:55:49,000 --> 01:55:52,200
Speaker 1: to step back, to de escalate, to try and find

2246
01:55:52,200 --> 01:55:54,120
Speaker 1: some way out of the crisis that brought us back

2247
01:55:54,160 --> 01:55:58,480
Speaker 1: from the break and didn't lead to nuclear annihilation. I'm

2248
01:55:58,520 --> 01:56:02,240
Speaker 1: finding the most difficult thing at the moment is trying

2249
01:56:02,280 --> 01:56:04,720
Speaker 1: to convince people, you know, people who are politically engaged,

2250
01:56:04,720 --> 01:56:07,280
Speaker 1: who are politically active, who are educated, who are intelligent,

2251
01:56:07,320 --> 01:56:10,520
Speaker 1: people trying to convince them to one to care about

2252
01:56:10,560 --> 01:56:13,920
Speaker 1: this issue and to understand the danger that we are

2253
01:56:13,960 --> 01:56:17,200
Speaker 1: in right now, number one, and then number two, to

2254
01:56:17,320 --> 01:56:21,600
Speaker 1: actually oppose it, to say that, yes, the Russian invasion

2255
01:56:21,680 --> 01:56:26,680
Speaker 1: is horrific and illegal and reckless and stupid and morally

2256
01:56:26,720 --> 01:56:30,760
Speaker 1: wrong and so many other things. Yes, absolutely Ukraine deserves

2257
01:56:30,800 --> 01:56:34,800
Speaker 1: to take back the territory that was seized from it.

2258
01:56:35,120 --> 01:56:38,280
Speaker 1: But are we really willing to make that a more

2259
01:56:38,400 --> 01:56:44,400
Speaker 1: important cause than stopping the annihilation of vast walls of

2260
01:56:44,440 --> 01:56:47,800
Speaker 1: the human race in the nuclear war? Because yet to remember,

2261
01:56:48,640 --> 01:56:53,840
Speaker 1: if nuclear war starts, things can very quickly escalate, you know,

2262
01:56:54,000 --> 01:56:58,040
Speaker 1: but beyond just the countries that are involved, number one.

2263
01:56:58,120 --> 01:57:00,640
Speaker 1: You know, if it's US and Russia that's going to

2264
01:57:00,640 --> 01:57:02,840
Speaker 1: suddenly involve the NATO States, missiles is going to be

2265
01:57:02,840 --> 01:57:05,440
Speaker 1: flying all over the place. We're talking Canada, we're talking

2266
01:57:05,480 --> 01:57:08,080
Speaker 1: Western Europe, Eastern Europe. And I had to remind people

2267
01:57:08,120 --> 01:57:14,120
Speaker 1: as well that when we're talking about nuclear war, the

2268
01:57:14,160 --> 01:57:18,160
Speaker 1: country that's going to get at first is Ukraine itself.

2269
01:57:19,120 --> 01:57:22,840
Speaker 1: What is the use of any military victory and even

2270
01:57:22,880 --> 01:57:26,440
Speaker 1: any land reclamation it gets back if the country has

2271
01:57:26,520 --> 01:57:29,200
Speaker 1: wiped off the map, what does it matter anymore. These

2272
01:57:29,240 --> 01:57:33,920
Speaker 1: things are not being discussed at all, and I'm surprised,

2273
01:57:34,520 --> 01:57:37,080
Speaker 1: honestly at some of the pushback I've gotten to this.

2274
01:57:38,400 --> 01:57:41,920
Speaker 1: I always thought that that trying to avoid nuclear war

2275
01:57:43,080 --> 01:57:46,240
Speaker 1: was the most uncontroversial possible thing one could talk about,

2276
01:57:46,320 --> 01:57:49,280
Speaker 1: and yet I'm finding suddenly, in this political climate that

2277
01:57:49,560 --> 01:57:54,520
Speaker 1: we're stuck in at the moment, that is apparently not

2278
01:57:54,640 --> 01:57:59,160
Speaker 1: considered such a simple thing anymore. What would a different

2279
01:57:59,280 --> 01:58:04,080
Speaker 1: approach ultimately look like. I mean, from the beginning of this,

2280
01:58:04,480 --> 01:58:07,919
Speaker 1: I was always advocating for the United States to negotiate

2281
01:58:07,960 --> 01:58:11,320
Speaker 1: with Russia over its demands of a NATO, you know,

2282
01:58:12,000 --> 01:58:14,960
Speaker 1: which it's not the only cause of the war, but

2283
01:58:15,000 --> 01:58:19,960
Speaker 1: that is a big part of what started this, the

2284
01:58:20,040 --> 01:58:24,760
Speaker 1: Russian long swimming resentment over NATO expansion and various kind

2285
01:58:24,760 --> 01:58:28,960
Speaker 1: of slights in affronts that the Russian leadership saw from

2286
01:58:28,960 --> 01:58:34,360
Speaker 1: the United States. I think that diplomacy on that subject

2287
01:58:34,720 --> 01:58:38,160
Speaker 1: early on could have stopped it. I think that diplomat

2288
01:58:38,160 --> 01:58:43,920
Speaker 1: engagement through throughout from the West, not just by Russia

2289
01:58:43,920 --> 01:58:46,680
Speaker 1: and Ukraine. Because you have to remember, I mean, the

2290
01:58:46,800 --> 01:58:48,840
Speaker 1: US is a huge party to this conflict. I mean,

2291
01:58:49,040 --> 01:58:53,120
Speaker 1: the US is not just sending unprecedented amounts of military

2292
01:58:53,200 --> 01:58:57,000
Speaker 1: aid to Ukraine. But it's also been involved in war

2293
01:58:57,040 --> 01:59:00,520
Speaker 1: planning with the Ukrainian government. It's been involved giving them

2294
01:59:00,560 --> 01:59:04,480
Speaker 1: intelligence and other support that has allowed them to sink,

2295
01:59:05,480 --> 01:59:09,400
Speaker 1: you know, the Russian flagship and the Black Seas allowed

2296
01:59:09,400 --> 01:59:11,200
Speaker 1: them to kill the Russian general. So the US is

2297
01:59:11,240 --> 01:59:13,320
Speaker 1: heavily involved in this. And again a lot of this

2298
01:59:13,480 --> 01:59:17,280
Speaker 1: war is as we saw in the Leader, it's a

2299
01:59:17,280 --> 01:59:20,960
Speaker 1: lot of US to do with Pruden's resentment tools the

2300
01:59:20,960 --> 01:59:24,760
Speaker 1: West and so in the US in particular. And so

2301
01:59:24,800 --> 01:59:27,360
Speaker 1: the US need to step in, I think, and not

2302
01:59:27,520 --> 01:59:29,400
Speaker 1: just say, oh, well, this is the course for the Ukrainians,

2303
01:59:29,440 --> 01:59:31,560
Speaker 1: we have nothing to do with this. I think the

2304
01:59:31,680 --> 01:59:33,800
Speaker 1: US really has to come in and engage with us.

2305
01:59:33,800 --> 01:59:37,800
Speaker 1: And I wish, you know, at the moment, I'm surprised

2306
01:59:37,840 --> 01:59:40,800
Speaker 1: that the lack of movement around the world. It's not

2307
01:59:40,880 --> 01:59:45,160
Speaker 1: just that the US is not really what doesn't seem

2308
01:59:45,160 --> 01:59:48,720
Speaker 1: to want to engage beyond just sort of threats as

2309
01:59:48,760 --> 01:59:51,120
Speaker 1: an attempt of to terns. But you know, I mean,

2310
01:59:51,520 --> 01:59:54,720
Speaker 1: what about China, what about what about the many many

2311
01:59:54,720 --> 01:59:58,480
Speaker 1: countries that would be affected by any nuclear exchange. Why

2312
01:59:58,520 --> 02:00:01,600
Speaker 1: are they not? Is it not a mass call for

2313
02:00:01,720 --> 02:00:03,920
Speaker 1: some sort of the escalation. You know, where is the

2314
02:00:04,240 --> 02:00:07,160
Speaker 1: peace movement? You know, there used to be a robust

2315
02:00:07,240 --> 02:00:12,360
Speaker 1: peace movement through the Cold War, to demonstrate the public

2316
02:00:12,440 --> 02:00:16,480
Speaker 1: unwillingness to go to the places that we are in

2317
02:00:16,600 --> 02:00:18,720
Speaker 1: right now. All of that seems to be gone. I

2318
02:00:18,760 --> 02:00:25,000
Speaker 1: wish that the people, you know were more active and

2319
02:00:25,120 --> 02:00:29,680
Speaker 1: more outspoken about this, to demonstrate that no, you know,

2320
02:00:30,360 --> 02:00:33,920
Speaker 1: nuclear war is not worth anything. I think that is

2321
02:00:33,960 --> 02:00:37,240
Speaker 1: all extraordinarily well said, and there's literally no issue that

2322
02:00:37,320 --> 02:00:39,480
Speaker 1: is more important. The fact that it has been I mean,

2323
02:00:39,520 --> 02:00:43,680
Speaker 1: the position you're advocating, which is like the mainstream position

2324
02:00:43,800 --> 02:00:46,280
Speaker 1: in American society. The fact that it is totally absent

2325
02:00:46,560 --> 02:00:49,280
Speaker 1: from the media conversation, the fact that there was never

2326
02:00:49,360 --> 02:00:52,240
Speaker 1: any discussion or debate about the potential downsides of the

2327
02:00:52,280 --> 02:00:54,760
Speaker 1: strategy that the US was employing. I mean, this may

2328
02:00:55,040 --> 02:00:57,120
Speaker 1: turn out to be one of the most devastating mistakes

2329
02:00:57,160 --> 02:00:59,800
Speaker 1: in the history of the country. I hope not. In

2330
02:01:00,120 --> 02:01:02,760
Speaker 1: Story of Mankind find out. Bronco. Great to see you,

2331
02:01:02,800 --> 02:01:05,600
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Thank you, sir, appreciate it. Thank

2332
02:01:05,640 --> 02:01:07,560
Speaker 1: you guys so much for watching. We really appreciate it.

2333
02:01:07,560 --> 02:01:10,480
Speaker 1: We've got the Chicago show. The tickets are on sale, folks,

2334
02:01:10,480 --> 02:01:12,320
Speaker 1: go ahead and buy them as we're really excited. We're

2335
02:01:12,320 --> 02:01:15,120
Speaker 1: going to be there eleven days days. Feels right around

2336
02:01:15,120 --> 02:01:18,240
Speaker 1: that feel like Atlanta was yesterday. Apparently it was like

2337
02:01:18,280 --> 02:01:20,360
Speaker 1: two and a half weeks ago. It's gonna be super fun,

2338
02:01:20,720 --> 02:01:22,280
Speaker 1: very excited. It's going to be a hell of a

2339
02:01:22,320 --> 02:01:25,280
Speaker 1: lot of fun. Buyer tickets. The link is in the description. Also,

2340
02:01:25,600 --> 02:01:29,160
Speaker 1: we've got the Counterpoints show debuting tomorrow because of an

2341
02:01:29,200 --> 02:01:32,200
Speaker 1: off week schedule, our off day schedule this week, so

2342
02:01:32,360 --> 02:01:34,680
Speaker 1: I'm really looking forward to see what they do with

2343
02:01:34,840 --> 02:01:37,080
Speaker 1: the show. It's a lot of fun to celebrate their

2344
02:01:37,120 --> 02:01:39,760
Speaker 1: launch and also the hiring of our new person continue

2345
02:01:39,840 --> 02:01:42,040
Speaker 1: our expansion. We've got the discount going on right now

2346
02:01:42,080 --> 02:01:44,480
Speaker 1: ten percent off. Link also in the description for that.

2347
02:01:44,760 --> 02:01:47,200
Speaker 1: You guys know the drill. You'll see Ryan and Emily tomorrow,

2348
02:01:47,240 --> 02:01:49,880
Speaker 1: You'll see us on Thursday. We've got content partners, so

2349
02:01:50,000 --> 02:01:52,200
Speaker 1: much more enabled by all of you. Thank you very much.

2350
02:01:52,240 --> 02:01:53,240
Speaker 1: We'll see you all next time.