Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2: Good morning.
Speaker 3: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the
Speaker 3: stories we're following today, Karen.
Speaker 2: The bounce back in the markets this morning follows another
Speaker 2: selloff on Wall Street on Monday. All three major indexes
Speaker 2: fell at least two point four percent. President Trump's demands
Speaker 2: on FED Chair J Powell to act on rates are
Speaker 2: renewing concern about the President meddling with central bank policy.
Speaker 2: Claudia Sam, a former Federal Reserve economist, says it is
Speaker 2: a real concern.
Speaker 4: I take it very seriously, and I, you know, this
Speaker 4: administration has taken steps, whether it's with the tariffs or
Speaker 4: with downsize in the government, that really were, you know,
Speaker 4: beyond expectations. So I, you know, the unthinkable is thinkable
Speaker 4: with this administration.
Speaker 2: Claudia Sam is currently chief economist at New Century Advisors,
Speaker 2: and concerns about Fed independents also have Gold on the
Speaker 2: rise again this morning. Earlier top thirty twenty five hundred
Speaker 2: dollars an ounce for the first time. Right now it's
Speaker 2: at thirty four to sixty seventy cents.
Speaker 3: Well, Nathan, the S and P five hundred is down
Speaker 3: by nine percent since Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs earlier this
Speaker 3: month on most US trading partners. The chief economist of
Speaker 3: Apollo Global Management, Touristen Slock, says a recession is the
Speaker 3: most likely scenario if the current tariffs take place.
Speaker 5: Maybe we'll take a few more weeks, maybe the worst
Speaker 5: case a few a month or two, but we will
Speaker 5: eventually begin to see the net effect if these tariffs
Speaker 5: stay in place. And that's why we think there's a
Speaker 5: ninety percent chance of a recession if these tariffs stay
Speaker 5: at these current levels.
Speaker 3: And Apollo Global Management's tourst end slocks as foreigners own
Speaker 3: nineteen trillion dollars of US equities, seven trillion of treasuries,
Speaker 3: and five trillion dollars of US corporate bonds, accounting for
Speaker 3: about twenty to thirty percent of the total market. He
Speaker 3: says the unwinding of those holdings could cause substantial pain.
Speaker 2: And Karen Bloomberg Economics estimates President Trump's tariffs would shave
Speaker 2: about two trillion dollars off global output by the end
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty seven. Get that part of the story
Speaker 2: from bloomberg 'zamy Morris in Washington.
Speaker 6: Analysts find that the president so called Liberation Day tariffs
Speaker 6: will mean a historic shock to the world GDP Bloomberg
Speaker 6: Economics analysts find that for the US, Trump's tariffs act
Speaker 6: like a massive tax hike and is considered a major shock.
Speaker 6: They say one casualty could be FED independents. Whether President
Speaker 6: Trump attempts to fire FED chair J. Powell or waits
Speaker 6: until the end of his term, it now does look
Speaker 6: likely that the next FED chief will be picked, at
Speaker 6: least in part, based on alignment with Trump's policy preferences.
Speaker 6: In Washington, Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: All right, Amy, thank you. President Trump met with major
Speaker 3: retailers at the White House as executive sod really from
Speaker 3: tariffs that have destabilized global supply chains and rattled US consumers.
Speaker 3: Jordan Fabian Is Bloomberg News White House Editor.
Speaker 7: That china one hundred and forty five percent tariff looms
Speaker 7: large over this conversation and used to do work across
Speaker 7: purposes when you have these companies coming in asking for
Speaker 7: a relief and you have not to mention these Southeast
Speaker 7: Asian countries who have higher rates as well, you know,
Speaker 7: questions about transhipment, etc. These are a lot of issues
Speaker 7: to untangle, and so it's unclear where this is going
Speaker 7: to end up as a result of this.
Speaker 8: Meeting, Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: Jordan Fabian says the meeting included representatives from Walmart, Home
Speaker 3: Deepot Lows, and Target, and.
Speaker 2: The tariffs are already starting to hit some firms in
Speaker 2: Japan Karen. A survey of more than five hundred companies
Speaker 2: by Japan's Ministry of Finance shows about ten percent of
Speaker 2: them say the measures have affected their businesses. The CEO
Speaker 2: of Japanese beverage giant Sentory Holding, says tariffs could make
Speaker 2: companies reluctant to invest in the US.
Speaker 9: Current tariff situation is losing the appetite from other countries
Speaker 9: to the United States. So this is really killing the
Speaker 9: opetite from the world to the United States. So we
Speaker 9: are losing the opetite to invest in the United States.
Speaker 2: Sentaory Holding CEO Takashee Nanami Warren's US tariffs could reduce
Speaker 2: Japan's GDP by as much as one point two percent.
Speaker 10: Well Nathan.
Speaker 3: One of the hardest hit stocks during the recent market
Speaker 3: selloff has been Tesla. In this afternoon, the ev giant
Speaker 3: will report its first quarter earnings, so we can a
Speaker 3: preview with Bloomberg's Tom Busby.
Speaker 8: It's been a tough start to the new year for Tesla.
Speaker 8: Shares have lost about forty five percent of their value
Speaker 8: so far in twenty twenty five, and it posted weaker
Speaker 8: than forecast Q one sales earlier this month. The reasons
Speaker 8: an aging lineup, few details about more affordable evs to come,
Speaker 8: and a lot of backlash against CEO Elon Musk for
Speaker 8: ties to President Trump's cost cutting DOGE task Force, and
Speaker 8: support for far right politicians in Germany. Consensus calls for
Speaker 8: a justin ernigs per share of forty four cents total
Speaker 8: revenue of twenty one point four to three billion.
Speaker 2: Tom Busby, Bloomberg Radio, All right, Tom, thank you, and
Speaker 2: other news. This morning, President Trump is standing behind Defense
Speaker 2: Secretary Pete Hegseth as he faces a new report that
Speaker 2: he shared Yemen attack plans on a second unsecured signal
Speaker 2: chat that included his wife and brother. The President was
Speaker 2: asked if he still has confidence in Hegseth at the
Speaker 2: White House Easter egg Roll.
Speaker 10: Why do you even ask a question, Dad?
Speaker 11: We have regroupments that said a all time high, the
Speaker 11: spirit and the amed courses is fantastic.
Speaker 12: No great confidence.
Speaker 2: The president spoke after a former Pentagon spokesman, John Elliott
Speaker 2: said the Defense departments and a full blown meltdown in
Speaker 2: his works it could cost hag Seth his job. That
Speaker 2: criticism came after three top Defense Department officials said they
Speaker 2: were fired in the middle of a leak investigation but
Speaker 2: weren't told what they were being investigated for. President Trump
Speaker 2: is blaming disgrunted employees for the pressure on heg Seth
Speaker 2: says he's doing a great job, but Republican Congressman Don Bacon,
Speaker 2: who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, says if
Speaker 2: the reports about heg Seth are true, he won't tolerate
Speaker 2: it well.
Speaker 3: Nathan Harvard University's high stakes showdown with the Trump administration
Speaker 3: has ratcheted up another notch, and Bloomberg's John Tucker joins
Speaker 3: us with Mora and John. It looks like this battles
Speaker 3: headed to court.
Speaker 13: Karen Harvard is suing several US agencies as well as
Speaker 13: top officials, for freezing billions of dollars in federal funding,
Speaker 13: much of it critical medical research funding. Lawyers for the
Speaker 13: university argued in a lawsuit filged yesterday in federal court
Speaker 13: that the government unlawfully suspended Harvard's funding after it refused
Speaker 13: to comply with unconstitutional demands to overhaul governance, discipline, hiring,
Speaker 13: and diversity programs. O' donald Trump escalated his fight with
Speaker 13: Harvard after the school refused to bound to his administration's demands.
Speaker 13: Since threatening its funding, Trump suggested the IRS should also
Speaker 13: tax the university as a political entity. Without the funding,
Speaker 13: this toolsked in the complaint, it will be forced to
Speaker 13: either reduce or halt ongoing research projects and terminate employment
Speaker 13: contracts with researchersw York. I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: It is time now for look at some of the
Speaker 3: other stories making news in New York and around the world,
Speaker 3: and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael,
Speaker 3: good morning, Good.
Speaker 12: Morning, Karen. Cardinals a meeting at the Vatican to make
Speaker 12: the first decisions about running the Catholic Church following Monday's
Speaker 12: death of Pope Francis. They need to decide when the
Speaker 12: conclave will begin to elect his successor. Today's Congregation of
Speaker 12: Cardinals could choose to begin the public viewing as soon
Speaker 12: as Wednesday. The funeral is Saturday. Tributes continue to pour
Speaker 12: in for Francis.
Speaker 11: President Trump he was a good man, worked hard, he
Speaker 11: loved the world, and it's an honor to do that.
Speaker 12: Former Speaker of the House Nancy Belosi called the Pope's
Speaker 12: passing personally devastating.
Speaker 14: All of us who are singing the praises of his
Speaker 14: ownness will pray to him and also also follow his legacy.
Speaker 12: Chicago Cardinal Blaze Competch.
Speaker 14: Even though it was clear that he was not feeling well,
Speaker 14: he wanted to be with people, and I think that
Speaker 14: he had the attention of making sure that people realize
Speaker 14: that he was with them.
Speaker 12: The Vatican says the pope died from a cerebral stroke,
Speaker 12: which caused him to fall into a coma and then
Speaker 12: essentially heart failure. The Trump administration says starting May fifth,
Speaker 12: federal student loans in default will be referred to debt collection.
Speaker 12: Aisa Conchola Banyez is the policy director for the Student
Speaker 12: Borrower Protection Center. She says there are about five million
Speaker 12: Americans who are currently in default.
Speaker 5: Folks who are behind are already seeing major hits to
Speaker 5: their credit score and seeing these negative marks on their
Speaker 5: credit reports.
Speaker 12: After a thirty day notice. The Department of Education will
Speaker 12: also begin garnishing wages for borrowers in default. Finally, the
Speaker 12: Trump administration is threatening to stop federal approvals for transportation
Speaker 12: products in Manhattan and May, with holding funding if New
Speaker 12: York City's congestion pricing program continues. The US Transportation Secretary
Speaker 12: has given in the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and ultimatum to
Speaker 12: end the congestion pricing by May twenty first or face
Speaker 12: the consequences. New York Governor Kathy Hokol and the MTA
Speaker 12: are refusing to back down, with the MTA seeking a
Speaker 12: court decision to declare the administration's move to end the
Speaker 12: fee as null and void. Global News twenty four hours
Speaker 12: a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.
Speaker 12: I'm Michael barn This is Bloomberg Karen.
Speaker 3: Right, Michael Barrn, Thank you time now for the Bloomberry
Speaker 3: Spores update. Here's John stash Hour. John, Good morning in Nornie, Karen.
Speaker 15: The Knicks We're able to come from behind in the
Speaker 15: fourth quarter and win Game one from Detroit at the Garden.
Speaker 15: Forty eight hours later, they almost did it again, trailed
Speaker 15: by thirteen, but was just over a minute ago.
Speaker 12: It was only two.
Speaker 16: What Rutson handles it. It's a two point game, Brookson
Speaker 16: one on one with Schroder, Brunton Tribe fish Horts open time,
Speaker 16: the last New York League sixteens fifteen to the.
Speaker 12: First, Shrewder Shupper come home.
Speaker 10: It's a three.
Speaker 15: Ice water in his fame non tnt so. Detroit went
Speaker 15: back ahead. Mcal Bridges later had a wide open look
Speaker 15: at a game tyme three pointer he missed, and Detroit
Speaker 15: won its first playoff games since two thousand and eight,
Speaker 15: one hundreds of ninety four, Cade Cunningham thirty three points,
Speaker 15: Jalen Bruns Levenecks with thirty seven. Game three is Thursday
Speaker 15: in Detroit. Clippers won in Denver one O five one
Speaker 15: oh two. Who Islanders scored thirty nine. That series also
Speaker 15: tied at one, while the road teams won. In the NBA,
Speaker 15: the home teams went four to ozho on the ice.
Speaker 15: Two games went overtime. Dallas beat Colorado four to three,
Speaker 15: and Washington beat Montreal three to two on an Alex
Speaker 15: Ovechkin game winner. Winnipeg top Saint Louis two to one,
Speaker 15: and a wild one in LA the Kings led Edmonton
Speaker 15: for nothing five three was just over two minutes left.
Speaker 15: The Oilers tied it up and then La scored with
Speaker 15: forty eight seconds to go to win six to five
Speaker 15: for the Messa City Field, where they're now ten and
Speaker 15: one more great Pitchinal of the Phillies scored four times
Speaker 15: on the ninth dinning, the Mets held on it went
Speaker 15: five to four. Francisco Lindoor a lead off home run
Speaker 15: later a three run shot home runs did in the Yankees.
Speaker 15: In Cleveland, Jose Ramirez went back to back with Kyle
Speaker 15: Manzarto third in off. Clerk Smith Guardians beat the Yanks
Speaker 15: six to four. John Stashammer, Bloomberg Sports Kunda, Nathan.
Speaker 1: Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,
Speaker 1: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. Markets maybe due four bounce
Speaker 2: back from the steep declines to start the week, but
Speaker 2: the pressure remains on FED Chair Jerome Powell since President
Speaker 2: Trump had this to say in the Oval office last week.
Speaker 11: I don't think he's doing the job he's too late,
Speaker 11: always too late, blue slow, and I'm not happy with him.
Speaker 11: I let him know it, and if I want him out,
Speaker 11: he'll be out of their real fast believe me.
Speaker 2: Man the president and follow that up this week with
Speaker 2: a social media post saying there could be a slowing
Speaker 2: of the economy if Powell doesn't cut interest rates now.
Speaker 2: So let's get more and what's happening in this market.
Speaker 2: We are joined by Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategistic BNP
Speaker 2: Paribough Asset Management. Daniel, it's great to speak with you.
Speaker 2: How seriously should the market take this pressure on Chairman
Speaker 2: Powell as the President Trump continues pressure around trade? Good morning,
Speaker 2: Good morning.
Speaker 10: Well, certainly it's a quite serious topic, something that most
Speaker 10: investors would probably be happier with the status quo than
Speaker 10: the change of that magnitude. So I think it's something
Speaker 10: absolutely have to pay attention to anticipate what the consequences
Speaker 10: might be. And I think if you look at what's
Speaker 10: been happening with the dollar in general over the last
Speaker 10: couple of weeks, you know this could be another factor.
Speaker 10: If it escalates, that would potentially weaken the dollar.
Speaker 2: Well, what could the confidence or the consequences be Daniel,
Speaker 2: if we did see a serious threat to federal reserve independence.
Speaker 10: Well, I think what ultimately, in an abstract version of it,
Speaker 10: the reason the argument that you want to have independent
Speaker 10: central banks is that you don't want the central governas
Speaker 10: to the central goverment, the federal government of any country,
Speaker 10: using monetary policy to promote their own normally a growth agenda,
Speaker 10: because a concern is going to be over the medium term,
Speaker 10: you're going to end up with higher inflation. So it
Speaker 10: really does come down to that anchoring of inflation expectations
Speaker 10: which is so important to central bankers, and that would
Speaker 10: be I think the primary risk that investors would see.
Speaker 10: Would investor would inflation expectations become unanchored if you had
Speaker 10: a central bank that was fewed as less independent.
Speaker 2: Well, how would the market take it if the Federal
Speaker 2: Reserve were to cut interest rates?
Speaker 10: Well, it's not necessarily a clear cut whether they should
Speaker 10: or they shouldn't. When you're in arguably or approaching a
Speaker 10: stagflationary environment, meaning that in the short term at least
Speaker 10: prices are going to go up. So by the definition
Speaker 10: of a change in prices, it's inflationary, even if it's
Speaker 10: not inflationary really in the sense gentral Banks think about
Speaker 10: insofar it's not necessarily to be a permanent increase in
Speaker 10: the rate of price changes, but an increase in prices
Speaker 10: that's likely to lead to a slow down of growth,
Speaker 10: at least in the short term. And then given that
Speaker 10: the FED has a dual mandate essentially focusing on growth
Speaker 10: the unemployment rate, but also inflation, you can argue both
Speaker 10: ways they should potentially be cutting rates to offset the
Speaker 10: negative impact on growth or raising rates to offset the
Speaker 10: impact on inflation. But if the inflation iffact is temporary,
Speaker 10: you would probably fall back to growth, So them cutting
Speaker 10: in this environment isn't necessarily an outlandish idea. We're seeing
Speaker 10: that happening in the Eurostone the US to be discut
Speaker 10: rates exactly for that reason.
Speaker 2: And we've seen some pretty dramatic estimates of the economic
Speaker 2: impact if President Trump's tariffs were to remain in place
Speaker 2: beyond the ninety day pause, ninety percent risk of recession
Speaker 2: from a Torston Slocket, Apollo Global and Bloomberg Economics estimating
Speaker 2: trillion dollars in global GDP could be shaved off by
Speaker 2: the end of twenty twenty seven. Do those estimates make sense.
Speaker 10: Well, I think we should perhaps recall how bad our
Speaker 10: forecasting was during the pandemic, and so it's not to
Speaker 10: criticize economic forecasting, but at the best of times, it's
Speaker 10: not particularly accurate. And when you're in an environment that
Speaker 10: is unprecedented, like it was during lockdowns, your models really
Speaker 10: aren't of much use at all. So I think we
Speaker 10: certainly can attempt to forecast what would happen with GDP
Speaker 10: growth in the event and terrorists came back and stayed
Speaker 10: in place, But I think we'd have to acknowledge that
Speaker 10: there's going to be a huge confidence interval around those estimates,
Speaker 10: simply because there's really been no preceding episode like this
Speaker 10: to tell us, Okay, that's happened, then this because is
Speaker 10: going to happen this time.
Speaker 3: This is Bloombergy Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories
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Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg Day Ray