WEBVTT - Stocks Bounce Back; Harvard Sues Trump Administration

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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<v Speaker 3>stories we're following today, Karen.

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<v Speaker 2>The bounce back in the markets this morning follows another

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<v Speaker 2>selloff on Wall Street on Monday. All three major indexes

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<v Speaker 2>fell at least two point four percent. President Trump's demands

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<v Speaker 2>on FED Chair J Powell to act on rates are

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<v Speaker 2>renewing concern about the President meddling with central bank policy.

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<v Speaker 2>Claudia Sam, a former Federal Reserve economist, says it is

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<v Speaker 2>a real concern.

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<v Speaker 4>I take it very seriously, and I, you know, this

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<v Speaker 4>administration has taken steps, whether it's with the tariffs or

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<v Speaker 4>with downsize in the government, that really were, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>beyond expectations. So I, you know, the unthinkable is thinkable

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<v Speaker 4>with this administration.

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<v Speaker 2>Claudia Sam is currently chief economist at New Century Advisors,

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<v Speaker 2>and concerns about Fed independents also have Gold on the

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<v Speaker 2>rise again this morning. Earlier top thirty twenty five hundred

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<v Speaker 2>dollars an ounce for the first time. Right now it's

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<v Speaker 2>at thirty four to sixty seventy cents.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Nathan, the S and P five hundred is down

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<v Speaker 3>by nine percent since Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs earlier this

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<v Speaker 3>month on most US trading partners. The chief economist of

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<v Speaker 3>Apollo Global Management, Touristen Slock, says a recession is the

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<v Speaker 3>most likely scenario if the current tariffs take place.

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<v Speaker 5>Maybe we'll take a few more weeks, maybe the worst

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<v Speaker 5>case a few a month or two, but we will

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<v Speaker 5>eventually begin to see the net effect if these tariffs

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<v Speaker 5>stay in place. And that's why we think there's a

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<v Speaker 5>ninety percent chance of a recession if these tariffs stay

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<v Speaker 5>at these current levels.

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<v Speaker 3>And Apollo Global Management's tourst end slocks as foreigners own

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<v Speaker 3>nineteen trillion dollars of US equities, seven trillion of treasuries,

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<v Speaker 3>and five trillion dollars of US corporate bonds, accounting for

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<v Speaker 3>about twenty to thirty percent of the total market. He

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<v Speaker 3>says the unwinding of those holdings could cause substantial pain.

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<v Speaker 2>And Karen Bloomberg Economics estimates President Trump's tariffs would shave

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<v Speaker 2>about two trillion dollars off global output by the end

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<v Speaker 2>of twenty twenty seven. Get that part of the story

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<v Speaker 2>from bloomberg 'zamy Morris in Washington.

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<v Speaker 6>Analysts find that the president so called Liberation Day tariffs

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<v Speaker 6>will mean a historic shock to the world GDP Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 6>Economics analysts find that for the US, Trump's tariffs act

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<v Speaker 6>like a massive tax hike and is considered a major shock.

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<v Speaker 6>They say one casualty could be FED independents. Whether President

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<v Speaker 6>Trump attempts to fire FED chair J. Powell or waits

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<v Speaker 6>until the end of his term, it now does look

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<v Speaker 6>likely that the next FED chief will be picked, at

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<v Speaker 6>least in part, based on alignment with Trump's policy preferences.

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<v Speaker 6>In Washington, Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, Amy, thank you. President Trump met with major

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<v Speaker 3>retailers at the White House as executive sod really from

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<v Speaker 3>tariffs that have destabilized global supply chains and rattled US consumers.

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<v Speaker 3>Jordan Fabian Is Bloomberg News White House Editor.

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<v Speaker 7>That china one hundred and forty five percent tariff looms

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<v Speaker 7>large over this conversation and used to do work across

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<v Speaker 7>purposes when you have these companies coming in asking for

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<v Speaker 7>a relief and you have not to mention these Southeast

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<v Speaker 7>Asian countries who have higher rates as well, you know,

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<v Speaker 7>questions about transhipment, etc. These are a lot of issues

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<v Speaker 7>to untangle, and so it's unclear where this is going

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<v Speaker 7>to end up as a result of this.

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<v Speaker 8>Meeting, Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 3>Jordan Fabian says the meeting included representatives from Walmart, Home

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<v Speaker 3>Deepot Lows, and Target, and.

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<v Speaker 2>The tariffs are already starting to hit some firms in

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<v Speaker 2>Japan Karen. A survey of more than five hundred companies

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<v Speaker 2>by Japan's Ministry of Finance shows about ten percent of

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<v Speaker 2>them say the measures have affected their businesses. The CEO

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<v Speaker 2>of Japanese beverage giant Sentory Holding, says tariffs could make

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<v Speaker 2>companies reluctant to invest in the US.

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<v Speaker 9>Current tariff situation is losing the appetite from other countries

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<v Speaker 9>to the United States. So this is really killing the

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<v Speaker 9>opetite from the world to the United States. So we

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<v Speaker 9>are losing the opetite to invest in the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>Sentaory Holding CEO Takashee Nanami Warren's US tariffs could reduce

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<v Speaker 2>Japan's GDP by as much as one point two percent.

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<v Speaker 10>Well Nathan.

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<v Speaker 3>One of the hardest hit stocks during the recent market

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<v Speaker 3>selloff has been Tesla. In this afternoon, the ev giant

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<v Speaker 3>will report its first quarter earnings, so we can a

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<v Speaker 3>preview with Bloomberg's Tom Busby.

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<v Speaker 8>It's been a tough start to the new year for Tesla.

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<v Speaker 8>Shares have lost about forty five percent of their value

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<v Speaker 8>so far in twenty twenty five, and it posted weaker

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<v Speaker 8>than forecast Q one sales earlier this month. The reasons

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<v Speaker 8>an aging lineup, few details about more affordable evs to come,

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<v Speaker 8>and a lot of backlash against CEO Elon Musk for

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<v Speaker 8>ties to President Trump's cost cutting DOGE task Force, and

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<v Speaker 8>support for far right politicians in Germany. Consensus calls for

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<v Speaker 8>a justin ernigs per share of forty four cents total

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<v Speaker 8>revenue of twenty one point four to three billion.

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<v Speaker 2>Tom Busby, Bloomberg Radio, All right, Tom, thank you, and

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<v Speaker 2>other news. This morning, President Trump is standing behind Defense

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary Pete Hegseth as he faces a new report that

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<v Speaker 2>he shared Yemen attack plans on a second unsecured signal

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<v Speaker 2>chat that included his wife and brother. The President was

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<v Speaker 2>asked if he still has confidence in Hegseth at the

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<v Speaker 2>White House Easter egg Roll.

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<v Speaker 10>Why do you even ask a question, Dad?

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<v Speaker 11>We have regroupments that said a all time high, the

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<v Speaker 11>spirit and the amed courses is fantastic.

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<v Speaker 12>No great confidence.

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<v Speaker 2>The president spoke after a former Pentagon spokesman, John Elliott

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<v Speaker 2>said the Defense departments and a full blown meltdown in

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<v Speaker 2>his works it could cost hag Seth his job. That

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<v Speaker 2>criticism came after three top Defense Department officials said they

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<v Speaker 2>were fired in the middle of a leak investigation but

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<v Speaker 2>weren't told what they were being investigated for. President Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is blaming disgrunted employees for the pressure on heg Seth

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<v Speaker 2>says he's doing a great job, but Republican Congressman Don Bacon,

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<v Speaker 2>who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, says if

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<v Speaker 2>the reports about heg Seth are true, he won't tolerate

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<v Speaker 2>it well.

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<v Speaker 3>Nathan Harvard University's high stakes showdown with the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 3>has ratcheted up another notch, and Bloomberg's John Tucker joins

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<v Speaker 3>us with Mora and John. It looks like this battles

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<v Speaker 3>headed to court.

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<v Speaker 13>Karen Harvard is suing several US agencies as well as

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<v Speaker 13>top officials, for freezing billions of dollars in federal funding,

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<v Speaker 13>much of it critical medical research funding. Lawyers for the

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<v Speaker 13>university argued in a lawsuit filged yesterday in federal court

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<v Speaker 13>that the government unlawfully suspended Harvard's funding after it refused

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<v Speaker 13>to comply with unconstitutional demands to overhaul governance, discipline, hiring,

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<v Speaker 13>and diversity programs. O' donald Trump escalated his fight with

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<v Speaker 13>Harvard after the school refused to bound to his administration's demands.

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<v Speaker 13>Since threatening its funding, Trump suggested the IRS should also

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<v Speaker 13>tax the university as a political entity. Without the funding,

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<v Speaker 13>this toolsked in the complaint, it will be forced to

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<v Speaker 13>either reduce or halt ongoing research projects and terminate employment

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<v Speaker 13>contracts with researchersw York. I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>It is time now for look at some of the

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<v Speaker 3>other stories making news in New York and around the world,

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<v Speaker 3>and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael,

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<v Speaker 3>good morning, Good.

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<v Speaker 12>Morning, Karen. Cardinals a meeting at the Vatican to make

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<v Speaker 12>the first decisions about running the Catholic Church following Monday's

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<v Speaker 12>death of Pope Francis. They need to decide when the

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<v Speaker 12>conclave will begin to elect his successor. Today's Congregation of

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<v Speaker 12>Cardinals could choose to begin the public viewing as soon

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<v Speaker 12>as Wednesday. The funeral is Saturday. Tributes continue to pour

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<v Speaker 12>in for Francis.

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<v Speaker 11>President Trump he was a good man, worked hard, he

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<v Speaker 11>loved the world, and it's an honor to do that.

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<v Speaker 12>Former Speaker of the House Nancy Belosi called the Pope's

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<v Speaker 12>passing personally devastating.

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<v Speaker 14>All of us who are singing the praises of his

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<v Speaker 14>ownness will pray to him and also also follow his legacy.

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<v Speaker 12>Chicago Cardinal Blaze Competch.

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<v Speaker 14>Even though it was clear that he was not feeling well,

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<v Speaker 14>he wanted to be with people, and I think that

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<v Speaker 14>he had the attention of making sure that people realize

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<v Speaker 14>that he was with them.

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<v Speaker 12>The Vatican says the pope died from a cerebral stroke,

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<v Speaker 12>which caused him to fall into a coma and then

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<v Speaker 12>essentially heart failure. The Trump administration says starting May fifth,

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<v Speaker 12>federal student loans in default will be referred to debt collection.

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<v Speaker 12>Aisa Conchola Banyez is the policy director for the Student

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<v Speaker 12>Borrower Protection Center. She says there are about five million

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<v Speaker 12>Americans who are currently in default.

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<v Speaker 5>Folks who are behind are already seeing major hits to

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<v Speaker 5>their credit score and seeing these negative marks on their

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<v Speaker 5>credit reports.

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<v Speaker 12>After a thirty day notice. The Department of Education will

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<v Speaker 12>also begin garnishing wages for borrowers in default. Finally, the

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<v Speaker 12>Trump administration is threatening to stop federal approvals for transportation

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<v Speaker 12>products in Manhattan and May, with holding funding if New

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<v Speaker 12>York City's congestion pricing program continues. The US Transportation Secretary

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<v Speaker 12>has given in the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and ultimatum to

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<v Speaker 12>end the congestion pricing by May twenty first or face

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<v Speaker 12>the consequences. New York Governor Kathy Hokol and the MTA

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<v Speaker 12>are refusing to back down, with the MTA seeking a

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<v Speaker 12>court decision to declare the administration's move to end the

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<v Speaker 12>fee as null and void. Global News twenty four hours

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<v Speaker 12>a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

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<v Speaker 12>I'm Michael barn This is Bloomberg Karen.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, Michael Barrn, Thank you time now for the Bloomberry

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<v Speaker 3>Spores update. Here's John stash Hour. John, Good morning in Nornie, Karen.

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<v Speaker 15>The Knicks We're able to come from behind in the

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<v Speaker 15>fourth quarter and win Game one from Detroit at the Garden.

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<v Speaker 15>Forty eight hours later, they almost did it again, trailed

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<v Speaker 15>by thirteen, but was just over a minute ago.

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<v Speaker 12>It was only two.

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<v Speaker 16>What Rutson handles it. It's a two point game, Brookson

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<v Speaker 16>one on one with Schroder, Brunton Tribe fish Horts open time,

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<v Speaker 16>the last New York League sixteens fifteen to the.

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<v Speaker 12>First, Shrewder Shupper come home.

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<v Speaker 10>It's a three.

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<v Speaker 15>Ice water in his fame non tnt so. Detroit went

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<v Speaker 15>back ahead. Mcal Bridges later had a wide open look

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<v Speaker 15>at a game tyme three pointer he missed, and Detroit

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<v Speaker 15>won its first playoff games since two thousand and eight,

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<v Speaker 15>one hundreds of ninety four, Cade Cunningham thirty three points,

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<v Speaker 15>Jalen Bruns Levenecks with thirty seven. Game three is Thursday

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<v Speaker 15>in Detroit. Clippers won in Denver one O five one

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<v Speaker 15>oh two. Who Islanders scored thirty nine. That series also

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<v Speaker 15>tied at one, while the road teams won. In the NBA,

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<v Speaker 15>the home teams went four to ozho on the ice.

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<v Speaker 15>Two games went overtime. Dallas beat Colorado four to three,

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<v Speaker 15>and Washington beat Montreal three to two on an Alex

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<v Speaker 15>Ovechkin game winner. Winnipeg top Saint Louis two to one,

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<v Speaker 15>and a wild one in LA the Kings led Edmonton

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<v Speaker 15>for nothing five three was just over two minutes left.

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<v Speaker 15>The Oilers tied it up and then La scored with

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<v Speaker 15>forty eight seconds to go to win six to five

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<v Speaker 15>for the Messa City Field, where they're now ten and

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<v Speaker 15>one more great Pitchinal of the Phillies scored four times

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<v Speaker 15>on the ninth dinning, the Mets held on it went

0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:09.839
<v Speaker 15>five to four. Francisco Lindoor a lead off home run

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<v Speaker 15>later a three run shot home runs did in the Yankees.

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<v Speaker 15>In Cleveland, Jose Ramirez went back to back with Kyle

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<v Speaker 15>Manzarto third in off. Clerk Smith Guardians beat the Yanks

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<v Speaker 15>six to four. John Stashammer, Bloomberg Sports Kunda, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 1>Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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<v Speaker 1>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. Markets maybe due four bounce

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<v Speaker 2>back from the steep declines to start the week, but

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<v Speaker 2>the pressure remains on FED Chair Jerome Powell since President

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<v Speaker 2>Trump had this to say in the Oval office last week.

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<v Speaker 11>I don't think he's doing the job he's too late,

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<v Speaker 11>always too late, blue slow, and I'm not happy with him.

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<v Speaker 11>I let him know it, and if I want him out,

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<v Speaker 11>he'll be out of their real fast believe me.

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<v Speaker 2>Man the president and follow that up this week with

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<v Speaker 2>a social media post saying there could be a slowing

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<v Speaker 2>of the economy if Powell doesn't cut interest rates now.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's get more and what's happening in this market.

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<v Speaker 2>We are joined by Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategistic BNP

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<v Speaker 2>Paribough Asset Management. Daniel, it's great to speak with you.

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<v Speaker 2>How seriously should the market take this pressure on Chairman

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<v Speaker 2>Powell as the President Trump continues pressure around trade? Good morning,

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 10>Well, certainly it's a quite serious topic, something that most

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<v Speaker 10>investors would probably be happier with the status quo than

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<v Speaker 10>the change of that magnitude. So I think it's something

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<v Speaker 10>absolutely have to pay attention to anticipate what the consequences

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<v Speaker 10>might be. And I think if you look at what's

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<v Speaker 10>been happening with the dollar in general over the last

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<v Speaker 10>couple of weeks, you know this could be another factor.

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<v Speaker 10>If it escalates, that would potentially weaken the dollar.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, what could the confidence or the consequences be Daniel,

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<v Speaker 2>if we did see a serious threat to federal reserve independence.

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<v Speaker 10>Well, I think what ultimately, in an abstract version of it,

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<v Speaker 10>the reason the argument that you want to have independent

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<v Speaker 10>central banks is that you don't want the central governas

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<v Speaker 10>to the central goverment, the federal government of any country,

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<v Speaker 10>using monetary policy to promote their own normally a growth agenda,

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<v Speaker 10>because a concern is going to be over the medium term,

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<v Speaker 10>you're going to end up with higher inflation. So it

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<v Speaker 10>really does come down to that anchoring of inflation expectations

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<v Speaker 10>which is so important to central bankers, and that would

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<v Speaker 10>be I think the primary risk that investors would see.

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<v Speaker 10>Would investor would inflation expectations become unanchored if you had

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<v Speaker 10>a central bank that was fewed as less independent.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, how would the market take it if the Federal

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<v Speaker 2>Reserve were to cut interest rates?

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<v Speaker 10>Well, it's not necessarily a clear cut whether they should

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<v Speaker 10>or they shouldn't. When you're in arguably or approaching a

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<v Speaker 10>stagflationary environment, meaning that in the short term at least

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<v Speaker 10>prices are going to go up. So by the definition

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<v Speaker 10>of a change in prices, it's inflationary, even if it's

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<v Speaker 10>not inflationary really in the sense gentral Banks think about

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<v Speaker 10>insofar it's not necessarily to be a permanent increase in

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<v Speaker 10>the rate of price changes, but an increase in prices

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<v Speaker 10>that's likely to lead to a slow down of growth,

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<v Speaker 10>at least in the short term. And then given that

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<v Speaker 10>the FED has a dual mandate essentially focusing on growth

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<v Speaker 10>the unemployment rate, but also inflation, you can argue both

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<v Speaker 10>ways they should potentially be cutting rates to offset the

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<v Speaker 10>negative impact on growth or raising rates to offset the

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<v Speaker 10>impact on inflation. But if the inflation iffact is temporary,

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<v Speaker 10>you would probably fall back to growth, So them cutting

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<v Speaker 10>in this environment isn't necessarily an outlandish idea. We're seeing

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<v Speaker 10>that happening in the Eurostone the US to be discut

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<v Speaker 10>rates exactly for that reason.

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<v Speaker 2>And we've seen some pretty dramatic estimates of the economic

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<v Speaker 2>impact if President Trump's tariffs were to remain in place

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<v Speaker 2>beyond the ninety day pause, ninety percent risk of recession

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<v Speaker 2>from a Torston Slocket, Apollo Global and Bloomberg Economics estimating

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<v Speaker 2>trillion dollars in global GDP could be shaved off by

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<v Speaker 2>the end of twenty twenty seven. Do those estimates make sense.

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<v Speaker 10>Well, I think we should perhaps recall how bad our

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<v Speaker 10>forecasting was during the pandemic, and so it's not to

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<v Speaker 10>criticize economic forecasting, but at the best of times, it's

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<v Speaker 10>not particularly accurate. And when you're in an environment that

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<v Speaker 10>is unprecedented, like it was during lockdowns, your models really

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<v Speaker 10>aren't of much use at all. So I think we

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<v Speaker 10>certainly can attempt to forecast what would happen with GDP

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<v Speaker 10>growth in the event and terrorists came back and stayed

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<v Speaker 10>in place, But I think we'd have to acknowledge that

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<v Speaker 10>there's going to be a huge confidence interval around those estimates,

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<v Speaker 10>simply because there's really been no preceding episode like this

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<v Speaker 10>to tell us, Okay, that's happened, then this because is

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<v Speaker 10>going to happen this time.

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