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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 3: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 3: stories we're following today, Karen.

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Speaker 2: The bounce back in the markets this morning follows another

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Speaker 2: selloff on Wall Street on Monday. All three major indexes

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Speaker 2: fell at least two point four percent. President Trump's demands

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Speaker 2: on FED Chair J Powell to act on rates are

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Speaker 2: renewing concern about the President meddling with central bank policy.

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Speaker 2: Claudia Sam, a former Federal Reserve economist, says it is

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Speaker 2: a real concern.

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Speaker 4: I take it very seriously, and I, you know, this

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Speaker 4: administration has taken steps, whether it's with the tariffs or

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Speaker 4: with downsize in the government, that really were, you know,

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Speaker 4: beyond expectations. So I, you know, the unthinkable is thinkable

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Speaker 4: with this administration.

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Speaker 2: Claudia Sam is currently chief economist at New Century Advisors,

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Speaker 2: and concerns about Fed independents also have Gold on the

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Speaker 2: rise again this morning. Earlier top thirty twenty five hundred

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Speaker 2: dollars an ounce for the first time. Right now it's

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Speaker 2: at thirty four to sixty seventy cents.

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Speaker 3: Well, Nathan, the S and P five hundred is down

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Speaker 3: by nine percent since Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs earlier this

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Speaker 3: month on most US trading partners. The chief economist of

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Speaker 3: Apollo Global Management, Touristen Slock, says a recession is the

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Speaker 3: most likely scenario if the current tariffs take place.

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Speaker 5: Maybe we'll take a few more weeks, maybe the worst

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Speaker 5: case a few a month or two, but we will

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Speaker 5: eventually begin to see the net effect if these tariffs

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Speaker 5: stay in place. And that's why we think there's a

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Speaker 5: ninety percent chance of a recession if these tariffs stay

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Speaker 5: at these current levels.

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Speaker 3: And Apollo Global Management's tourst end slocks as foreigners own

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Speaker 3: nineteen trillion dollars of US equities, seven trillion of treasuries,

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Speaker 3: and five trillion dollars of US corporate bonds, accounting for

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Speaker 3: about twenty to thirty percent of the total market. He

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Speaker 3: says the unwinding of those holdings could cause substantial pain.

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Speaker 2: And Karen Bloomberg Economics estimates President Trump's tariffs would shave

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Speaker 2: about two trillion dollars off global output by the end

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty seven. Get that part of the story

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Speaker 2: from bloomberg 'zamy Morris in Washington.

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Speaker 6: Analysts find that the president so called Liberation Day tariffs

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Speaker 6: will mean a historic shock to the world GDP Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: Economics analysts find that for the US, Trump's tariffs act

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Speaker 6: like a massive tax hike and is considered a major shock.

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Speaker 6: They say one casualty could be FED independents. Whether President

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Speaker 6: Trump attempts to fire FED chair J. Powell or waits

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Speaker 6: until the end of his term, it now does look

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Speaker 6: likely that the next FED chief will be picked, at

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Speaker 6: least in part, based on alignment with Trump's policy preferences.

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Speaker 6: In Washington, Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: All right, Amy, thank you. President Trump met with major

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Speaker 3: retailers at the White House as executive sod really from

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Speaker 3: tariffs that have destabilized global supply chains and rattled US consumers.

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Speaker 3: Jordan Fabian Is Bloomberg News White House Editor.

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Speaker 7: That china one hundred and forty five percent tariff looms

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Speaker 7: large over this conversation and used to do work across

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Speaker 7: purposes when you have these companies coming in asking for

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Speaker 7: a relief and you have not to mention these Southeast

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Speaker 7: Asian countries who have higher rates as well, you know,

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Speaker 7: questions about transhipment, etc. These are a lot of issues

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Speaker 7: to untangle, and so it's unclear where this is going

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Speaker 7: to end up as a result of this.

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Speaker 8: Meeting, Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Jordan Fabian says the meeting included representatives from Walmart, Home

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Speaker 3: Deepot Lows, and Target, and.

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Speaker 2: The tariffs are already starting to hit some firms in

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Speaker 2: Japan Karen. A survey of more than five hundred companies

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Speaker 2: by Japan's Ministry of Finance shows about ten percent of

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Speaker 2: them say the measures have affected their businesses. The CEO

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Speaker 2: of Japanese beverage giant Sentory Holding, says tariffs could make

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Speaker 2: companies reluctant to invest in the US.

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Speaker 9: Current tariff situation is losing the appetite from other countries

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Speaker 9: to the United States. So this is really killing the

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Speaker 9: opetite from the world to the United States. So we

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Speaker 9: are losing the opetite to invest in the United States.

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Speaker 2: Sentaory Holding CEO Takashee Nanami Warren's US tariffs could reduce

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Speaker 2: Japan's GDP by as much as one point two percent.

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Speaker 10: Well Nathan.

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Speaker 3: One of the hardest hit stocks during the recent market

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Speaker 3: selloff has been Tesla. In this afternoon, the ev giant

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Speaker 3: will report its first quarter earnings, so we can a

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Speaker 3: preview with Bloomberg's Tom Busby.

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Speaker 8: It's been a tough start to the new year for Tesla.

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Speaker 8: Shares have lost about forty five percent of their value

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Speaker 8: so far in twenty twenty five, and it posted weaker

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Speaker 8: than forecast Q one sales earlier this month. The reasons

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Speaker 8: an aging lineup, few details about more affordable evs to come,

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Speaker 8: and a lot of backlash against CEO Elon Musk for

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Speaker 8: ties to President Trump's cost cutting DOGE task Force, and

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Speaker 8: support for far right politicians in Germany. Consensus calls for

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Speaker 8: a justin ernigs per share of forty four cents total

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Speaker 8: revenue of twenty one point four to three billion.

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Speaker 2: Tom Busby, Bloomberg Radio, All right, Tom, thank you, and

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Speaker 2: other news. This morning, President Trump is standing behind Defense

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Speaker 2: Secretary Pete Hegseth as he faces a new report that

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Speaker 2: he shared Yemen attack plans on a second unsecured signal

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Speaker 2: chat that included his wife and brother. The President was

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Speaker 2: asked if he still has confidence in Hegseth at the

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Speaker 2: White House Easter egg Roll.

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Speaker 10: Why do you even ask a question, Dad?

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Speaker 11: We have regroupments that said a all time high, the

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Speaker 11: spirit and the amed courses is fantastic.

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Speaker 12: No great confidence.

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Speaker 2: The president spoke after a former Pentagon spokesman, John Elliott

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Speaker 2: said the Defense departments and a full blown meltdown in

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Speaker 2: his works it could cost hag Seth his job. That

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Speaker 2: criticism came after three top Defense Department officials said they

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Speaker 2: were fired in the middle of a leak investigation but

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Speaker 2: weren't told what they were being investigated for. President Trump

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Speaker 2: is blaming disgrunted employees for the pressure on heg Seth

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Speaker 2: says he's doing a great job, but Republican Congressman Don Bacon,

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Speaker 2: who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, says if

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Speaker 2: the reports about heg Seth are true, he won't tolerate

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Speaker 2: it well.

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Speaker 3: Nathan Harvard University's high stakes showdown with the Trump administration

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Speaker 3: has ratcheted up another notch, and Bloomberg's John Tucker joins

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Speaker 3: us with Mora and John. It looks like this battles

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Speaker 3: headed to court.

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Speaker 13: Karen Harvard is suing several US agencies as well as

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Speaker 13: top officials, for freezing billions of dollars in federal funding,

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Speaker 13: much of it critical medical research funding. Lawyers for the

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Speaker 13: university argued in a lawsuit filged yesterday in federal court

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Speaker 13: that the government unlawfully suspended Harvard's funding after it refused

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Speaker 13: to comply with unconstitutional demands to overhaul governance, discipline, hiring,

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Speaker 13: and diversity programs. O' donald Trump escalated his fight with

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Speaker 13: Harvard after the school refused to bound to his administration's demands.

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Speaker 13: Since threatening its funding, Trump suggested the IRS should also

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Speaker 13: tax the university as a political entity. Without the funding,

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Speaker 13: this toolsked in the complaint, it will be forced to

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Speaker 13: either reduce or halt ongoing research projects and terminate employment

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Speaker 13: contracts with researchersw York. I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: It is time now for look at some of the

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Speaker 3: other stories making news in New York and around the world,

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Speaker 3: and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael,

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Speaker 3: good morning, Good.

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Speaker 12: Morning, Karen. Cardinals a meeting at the Vatican to make

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Speaker 12: the first decisions about running the Catholic Church following Monday's

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Speaker 12: death of Pope Francis. They need to decide when the

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Speaker 12: conclave will begin to elect his successor. Today's Congregation of

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Speaker 12: Cardinals could choose to begin the public viewing as soon

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Speaker 12: as Wednesday. The funeral is Saturday. Tributes continue to pour

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Speaker 12: in for Francis.

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Speaker 11: President Trump he was a good man, worked hard, he

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Speaker 11: loved the world, and it's an honor to do that.

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Speaker 12: Former Speaker of the House Nancy Belosi called the Pope's

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Speaker 12: passing personally devastating.

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Speaker 14: All of us who are singing the praises of his

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Speaker 14: ownness will pray to him and also also follow his legacy.

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Speaker 12: Chicago Cardinal Blaze Competch.

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Speaker 14: Even though it was clear that he was not feeling well,

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Speaker 14: he wanted to be with people, and I think that

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Speaker 14: he had the attention of making sure that people realize

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Speaker 14: that he was with them.

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Speaker 12: The Vatican says the pope died from a cerebral stroke,

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Speaker 12: which caused him to fall into a coma and then

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Speaker 12: essentially heart failure. The Trump administration says starting May fifth,

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Speaker 12: federal student loans in default will be referred to debt collection.

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Speaker 12: Aisa Conchola Banyez is the policy director for the Student

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Speaker 12: Borrower Protection Center. She says there are about five million

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Speaker 12: Americans who are currently in default.

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Speaker 5: Folks who are behind are already seeing major hits to

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Speaker 5: their credit score and seeing these negative marks on their

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Speaker 5: credit reports.

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Speaker 12: After a thirty day notice. The Department of Education will

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Speaker 12: also begin garnishing wages for borrowers in default. Finally, the

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Speaker 12: Trump administration is threatening to stop federal approvals for transportation

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Speaker 12: products in Manhattan and May, with holding funding if New

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Speaker 12: York City's congestion pricing program continues. The US Transportation Secretary

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Speaker 12: has given in the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and ultimatum to

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Speaker 12: end the congestion pricing by May twenty first or face

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Speaker 12: the consequences. New York Governor Kathy Hokol and the MTA

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Speaker 12: are refusing to back down, with the MTA seeking a

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Speaker 12: court decision to declare the administration's move to end the

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Speaker 12: fee as null and void. Global News twenty four hours

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Speaker 12: a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

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Speaker 12: I'm Michael barn This is Bloomberg Karen.

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Speaker 3: Right, Michael Barrn, Thank you time now for the Bloomberry

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Speaker 3: Spores update. Here's John stash Hour. John, Good morning in Nornie, Karen.

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Speaker 15: The Knicks We're able to come from behind in the

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Speaker 15: fourth quarter and win Game one from Detroit at the Garden.

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Speaker 15: Forty eight hours later, they almost did it again, trailed

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Speaker 15: by thirteen, but was just over a minute ago.

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Speaker 12: It was only two.

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Speaker 16: What Rutson handles it. It's a two point game, Brookson

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Speaker 16: one on one with Schroder, Brunton Tribe fish Horts open time,

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Speaker 16: the last New York League sixteens fifteen to the.

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Speaker 12: First, Shrewder Shupper come home.

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Speaker 10: It's a three.

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Speaker 15: Ice water in his fame non tnt so. Detroit went

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Speaker 15: back ahead. Mcal Bridges later had a wide open look

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Speaker 15: at a game tyme three pointer he missed, and Detroit

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Speaker 15: won its first playoff games since two thousand and eight,

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Speaker 15: one hundreds of ninety four, Cade Cunningham thirty three points,

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Speaker 15: Jalen Bruns Levenecks with thirty seven. Game three is Thursday

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Speaker 15: in Detroit. Clippers won in Denver one O five one

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Speaker 15: oh two. Who Islanders scored thirty nine. That series also

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Speaker 15: tied at one, while the road teams won. In the NBA,

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Speaker 15: the home teams went four to ozho on the ice.

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Speaker 15: Two games went overtime. Dallas beat Colorado four to three,

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Speaker 15: and Washington beat Montreal three to two on an Alex

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Speaker 15: Ovechkin game winner. Winnipeg top Saint Louis two to one,

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Speaker 15: and a wild one in LA the Kings led Edmonton

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Speaker 15: for nothing five three was just over two minutes left.

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Speaker 15: The Oilers tied it up and then La scored with

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Speaker 15: forty eight seconds to go to win six to five

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Speaker 15: for the Messa City Field, where they're now ten and

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Speaker 15: one more great Pitchinal of the Phillies scored four times

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Speaker 15: on the ninth dinning, the Mets held on it went

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Speaker 15: five to four. Francisco Lindoor a lead off home run

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Speaker 15: later a three run shot home runs did in the Yankees.

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Speaker 15: In Cleveland, Jose Ramirez went back to back with Kyle

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Speaker 15: Manzarto third in off. Clerk Smith Guardians beat the Yanks

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Speaker 15: six to four. John Stashammer, Bloomberg Sports Kunda, Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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Speaker 1: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. Markets maybe due four bounce

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Speaker 2: back from the steep declines to start the week, but

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Speaker 2: the pressure remains on FED Chair Jerome Powell since President

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Speaker 2: Trump had this to say in the Oval office last week.

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Speaker 11: I don't think he's doing the job he's too late,

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Speaker 11: always too late, blue slow, and I'm not happy with him.

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Speaker 11: I let him know it, and if I want him out,

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Speaker 11: he'll be out of their real fast believe me.

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Speaker 2: Man the president and follow that up this week with

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Speaker 2: a social media post saying there could be a slowing

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Speaker 2: of the economy if Powell doesn't cut interest rates now.

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Speaker 2: So let's get more and what's happening in this market.

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Speaker 2: We are joined by Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategistic BNP

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Speaker 2: Paribough Asset Management. Daniel, it's great to speak with you.

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Speaker 2: How seriously should the market take this pressure on Chairman

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Speaker 2: Powell as the President Trump continues pressure around trade? Good morning,

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 10: Well, certainly it's a quite serious topic, something that most

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Speaker 10: investors would probably be happier with the status quo than

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Speaker 10: the change of that magnitude. So I think it's something

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Speaker 10: absolutely have to pay attention to anticipate what the consequences

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Speaker 10: might be. And I think if you look at what's

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Speaker 10: been happening with the dollar in general over the last

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Speaker 10: couple of weeks, you know this could be another factor.

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Speaker 10: If it escalates, that would potentially weaken the dollar.

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Speaker 2: Well, what could the confidence or the consequences be Daniel,

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Speaker 2: if we did see a serious threat to federal reserve independence.

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Speaker 10: Well, I think what ultimately, in an abstract version of it,

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Speaker 10: the reason the argument that you want to have independent

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Speaker 10: central banks is that you don't want the central governas

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Speaker 10: to the central goverment, the federal government of any country,

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Speaker 10: using monetary policy to promote their own normally a growth agenda,

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Speaker 10: because a concern is going to be over the medium term,

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Speaker 10: you're going to end up with higher inflation. So it

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Speaker 10: really does come down to that anchoring of inflation expectations

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Speaker 10: which is so important to central bankers, and that would

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Speaker 10: be I think the primary risk that investors would see.

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Speaker 10: Would investor would inflation expectations become unanchored if you had

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Speaker 10: a central bank that was fewed as less independent.

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Speaker 2: Well, how would the market take it if the Federal

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Speaker 2: Reserve were to cut interest rates?

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Speaker 10: Well, it's not necessarily a clear cut whether they should

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Speaker 10: or they shouldn't. When you're in arguably or approaching a

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Speaker 10: stagflationary environment, meaning that in the short term at least

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Speaker 10: prices are going to go up. So by the definition

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Speaker 10: of a change in prices, it's inflationary, even if it's

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Speaker 10: not inflationary really in the sense gentral Banks think about

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Speaker 10: insofar it's not necessarily to be a permanent increase in

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Speaker 10: the rate of price changes, but an increase in prices

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Speaker 10: that's likely to lead to a slow down of growth,

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Speaker 10: at least in the short term. And then given that

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Speaker 10: the FED has a dual mandate essentially focusing on growth

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Speaker 10: the unemployment rate, but also inflation, you can argue both

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Speaker 10: ways they should potentially be cutting rates to offset the

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Speaker 10: negative impact on growth or raising rates to offset the

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Speaker 10: impact on inflation. But if the inflation iffact is temporary,

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Speaker 10: you would probably fall back to growth, So them cutting

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Speaker 10: in this environment isn't necessarily an outlandish idea. We're seeing

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Speaker 10: that happening in the Eurostone the US to be discut

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Speaker 10: rates exactly for that reason.

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Speaker 2: And we've seen some pretty dramatic estimates of the economic

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Speaker 2: impact if President Trump's tariffs were to remain in place

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Speaker 2: beyond the ninety day pause, ninety percent risk of recession

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Speaker 2: from a Torston Slocket, Apollo Global and Bloomberg Economics estimating

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Speaker 2: trillion dollars in global GDP could be shaved off by

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Speaker 2: the end of twenty twenty seven. Do those estimates make sense.

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Speaker 10: Well, I think we should perhaps recall how bad our

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Speaker 10: forecasting was during the pandemic, and so it's not to

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Speaker 10: criticize economic forecasting, but at the best of times, it's

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Speaker 10: not particularly accurate. And when you're in an environment that

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Speaker 10: is unprecedented, like it was during lockdowns, your models really

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Speaker 10: aren't of much use at all. So I think we

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Speaker 10: certainly can attempt to forecast what would happen with GDP

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Speaker 10: growth in the event and terrorists came back and stayed

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Speaker 10: in place, But I think we'd have to acknowledge that

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Speaker 10: there's going to be a huge confidence interval around those estimates,

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Speaker 10: simply because there's really been no preceding episode like this

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Speaker 10: to tell us, Okay, that's happened, then this because is

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Speaker 10: going to happen this time.

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