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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Always

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Speaker 1: with Michael McKee. Daily we bring you insight from the

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Speaker 1: best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course,

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Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Tom Keene took a day off. Can

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Speaker 1: you believe that Lisaid bradmo Witz did not. She's sitting

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Speaker 1: in for Tom and she'll be with us all morning

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Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Surveillance. You only see if you drive

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Speaker 1: straight north from London, you come to Cambridge, take a left,

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Speaker 1: you know, a couple of miles up the road, and

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Speaker 1: you get to Mattie Lee, population ten. Does the Lord

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna find out? Because the Lord of the matter,

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Speaker 1: Baron Brown of Mattingly Large Brown, is whether it's the

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Speaker 1: former CEO of BP, one of the people we have

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Speaker 1: been talking to at length over the whole Brexit process.

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Speaker 1: Um and I want to get to that. But what

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Speaker 1: is what is it like in Mattingly. It's a very

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Speaker 1: small town. It's got a crossroads, it's got a church,

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Speaker 1: it's got a pub, it's got a restaurant and a

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Speaker 1: few houses. So this is the UK equivalent of a

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Speaker 1: one horse town. Does everybody know each other? Absolutely? And

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Speaker 1: there's a nice town hall as well, and there is

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Speaker 1: actually a big manner which doesn't belong to me, but

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Speaker 1: it belongs to Cambridge University and they do a lot

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Speaker 1: of teaching there. Do they bring you like tribute every year?

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Speaker 1: It's this has all changed now, you know. It's ever

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Speaker 1: since we are we separated from the United States that

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Speaker 1: everything changed in the UK as well. Well. Speaking of separation,

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Speaker 1: you separated for a much two and fifty years ago.

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Speaker 1: A second, I was about to say, it's not like

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Speaker 1: you have an institutional knowledge of personal knowledge at least

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Speaker 1: in this came along shortly thereafter. Yes, you did separate,

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Speaker 1: or you are going to separate at some point from

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Speaker 1: the European Union. It does appear. And you were telling uh,

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Speaker 1: Guy Johnson and I on Bluebrick Surveillance on television brexits Brexit.

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Speaker 1: You didn't want it, but you have to accept it now.

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Speaker 1: As a CEO, what would you do? You don't know

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Speaker 1: for two years what the terms are going to be.

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Speaker 1: Do you start making plans to move out of the UK,

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Speaker 1: move your supply chains? Do you invest for the future.

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Speaker 1: Do you start laying off workers? What do you do?

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Speaker 1: I think it depends on which sector you're in. Where

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Speaker 1: you have very strong regulatory issues, such as the financial

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Speaker 1: sector and passporting to provide services and sales to invest us,

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Speaker 1: then you've got to hedge your beds. I think you

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Speaker 1: want to sort of think about where would you keep

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Speaker 1: your staff and things like that. I think for other

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Speaker 1: manufacturing you have to go through and look very carefully

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Speaker 1: what you're doing. I personally would invest always through the cycle,

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Speaker 1: invest into some uncertainty. It's you can actually get some

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Speaker 1: good bargains that way, you know. I thought it was compelling.

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Speaker 1: Yesterday on Bloomberg Radio and Surveillance I h s IS,

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jurgen said that the one thing that has brought

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Speaker 1: down his estimates for growth is Brexit, and that they

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Speaker 1: think that possibly that could affect a couple of hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand barrels a day of oil and bring it offline

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Speaker 1: as a result. To you to agree it's possible, although

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Speaker 1: it depends, it's possible, and I wouldn't disagree with Dan,

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Speaker 1: and it certainly will reduce growth in the world in

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Speaker 1: one way or another. There is I'm sure that's the case.

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Speaker 1: Whether it will change the big change of investment patterns

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Speaker 1: that has occurred in the oil and gas business, I

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Speaker 1: think it's unlikely. After all, we've taken trillions of dollars

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Speaker 1: out of the investment in the oil and gas business.

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Speaker 1: This will be a very small change compared with the

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Speaker 1: big change as a result of the halving of oil prices.

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Speaker 1: But going back to slowing of demand and the fact

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Speaker 1: that you know a lot of people have attributed the

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Speaker 1: fall in oil prices to the slowing of demand and

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Speaker 1: the slowing of growth. Do you think that that this

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Speaker 1: that the growth could slow enough as a result of

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Speaker 1: Brexit to have a material effect an oil prices. I

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Speaker 1: don't think it's that significant globally, after all, growth in

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Speaker 1: oil consumption is something which is in the hands of

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Speaker 1: nations outside the United States and Canada and European nations.

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Speaker 1: The growth is about China, the growths about Africa, the

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Speaker 1: growths about South America, and the growth actually in the

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Speaker 1: Middle East. So these are the big drivers of growth.

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Speaker 1: Small changes I think in the structure of the economy

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Speaker 1: of Europe to do with oil and oil alone I

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Speaker 1: think would be reasonably small to bring it back to politics.

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Speaker 1: The Scots were very upset by the Brexit vote a

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Speaker 1: year ago. They turned down the idea of separating, with

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Speaker 1: their talking about having another referendum a forty dollars forty

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Speaker 1: five dollars. Can Scotland survive as an independent country? Would

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Speaker 1: it be a good idea for them to try this again?

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Speaker 1: I think it's very difficult for Scotland to be a

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Speaker 1: petro state based on I mean, that was the whole

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Speaker 1: theory behind the last referendum. Well, I think there's more

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Speaker 1: to it than just oil. I think that's to do

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Speaker 1: with a sense of identity which the people of Scotland

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Speaker 1: have been wrestling with for many years. So I think

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Speaker 1: it's that uh, and it's other other factors in the economy.

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Speaker 1: I think the oil business in the North Sea at

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Speaker 1: these sorts of oil prices is not an attractive business.

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Speaker 1: It's expensive and there are plenty of liabilities which need

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Speaker 1: to be cleaned up. In fact, the cleaning up of

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Speaker 1: the oil and gas facilities at the end of production

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Speaker 1: is very expensive and those liabilities got to be sorted

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Speaker 1: out before anybody thinks of ad who owns what in

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Speaker 1: the oil in the in the North Sea. In referencing

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Speaker 1: that you're talking about, of course deep water drilling, and

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Speaker 1: wondering going forward if north sea or anywhere, if you

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Speaker 1: really want to commit the kind of money you need

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Speaker 1: to commit to deep water drilling when you've got fracking available,

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Speaker 1: would companies just want to absorb as much of the

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Speaker 1: fracking property as possible and do the easy stuff for

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Speaker 1: a while. Fracking is obviously very important, and it's getting

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Speaker 1: better over time as it gets lower and lower costs,

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Speaker 1: so we do know that and therefore how productivity. But

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Speaker 1: the world will not survive on fracking alone. Most of

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Speaker 1: the oil in the world comes from much more conventional sources.

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Speaker 1: Uh These are offshore reserves in deep water as well

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Speaker 1: as onshore reserves and a whole variety of places, not

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Speaker 1: least the Middle East, so that all needs investment. There's

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Speaker 1: no oil field in the world that doesn't need reinvestment

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Speaker 1: because it's trying to walk up a downward racing escalator

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Speaker 1: to you know, everything declines the whole time, so you

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Speaker 1: need a lot of investment. And people will still have

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Speaker 1: to figure out ways of drilling in deep water, and

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Speaker 1: that will mean that there will be some pressure on

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Speaker 1: prices as we go forward. Has there been a concombinant

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Speaker 1: change in the technology for deep water to what we've

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Speaker 1: seen with tracking and not yet. I mean, there certainly

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Speaker 1: has been a lot of change. But the big change,

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Speaker 1: of course is nobody wants the drilling rigs and so

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Speaker 1: the cost is coming down. So we're here with John Brown,

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Speaker 1: Baron of Mattingly, and we are grace for this presence

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Speaker 1: on this day as people wonder about where oil is heading.

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Speaker 1: And you know, uh, John, you were the head of

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Speaker 1: BP and you saw it through a lot of rocky times.

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Speaker 1: Right now there is a big debate going on about

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Speaker 1: is its supply is it demand from If you were

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Speaker 1: still CEO of BP, would you be looking more at

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Speaker 1: the supplies of oil coming to the market or would

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Speaker 1: you be looking more at growth and the possible demand

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Speaker 1: in the next couple of months. So obviously you must

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Speaker 1: look at both because that the issue with oil is

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Speaker 1: the supply and demand are represented by two very very

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Speaker 1: big numbers, so the difference is subject to very big error.

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Speaker 1: And what we're looking at always is the difference. Are

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Speaker 1: we going to draw infantry? Are we're going to add infantry?

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Speaker 1: And that's the big question. So I always look at

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Speaker 1: stocks invantory see how they're going. And I always am

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Speaker 1: very skeptical about forecasts on demand because they are consistently

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Speaker 1: wrong and they're affected by short term information which when corrected,

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Speaker 1: never turns out to be the case. And we tend

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Speaker 1: to be rather optimistic about demand supply. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: a tremendous number of people analyzing this and they get

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Speaker 1: it kind of right. But it's very political. It's determined

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Speaker 1: by the actions of states and of course the actions

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Speaker 1: of different crises. So if you look at the day,

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Speaker 1: there's plenty of oil which could be produced but is

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Speaker 1: not being produced because of issues, whether it was Canada

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Speaker 1: in the past, Nigeria, Iraq, it goes on. So as

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Speaker 1: a CEO of an oil company, how do you position?

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Speaker 1: So you want to make sure you clear your cost

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Speaker 1: of capital at low oil prices when you commit to investments,

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Speaker 1: and you do want to make sure that you can

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Speaker 1: see the point of payback in a reasonable, reasonable horizon

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Speaker 1: and in the oil business, and that's many years, but

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Speaker 1: not so many years as to go into a future

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Speaker 1: which is terribly uncertain. So you look, you always take

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Speaker 1: a sight of cautious view, but you've got to be

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Speaker 1: you've got to be very accurate on the quality of

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Speaker 1: the asset. You know, commodity businesses are all driven by cost,

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Speaker 1: and you if you're the lowest cost producer, you'll be

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Speaker 1: the last person to turn out the lights. You'll be fine.

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Speaker 1: So you've just got to make sure you keep your

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Speaker 1: costs down. And that's not just a matter of cutting

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Speaker 1: costs as a matter the inherent costs of the activity.

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Speaker 1: And that's why shale is proving to be so good

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Speaker 1: because it's getting lower cost and low cost. How long

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Speaker 1: is the lead time on a project, I mean, how

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Speaker 1: much guesswork do you have to do about what conditions

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Speaker 1: are going to be X years down the road? It depends.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you're dealing with deep offshore oil oil

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Speaker 1: developments or l en G developments you're looking at you know,

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Speaker 1: you have to look twenty five years, so you may

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Speaker 1: not start production for seven to ten years before you

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Speaker 1: start a project. So you've got to you've got to

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Speaker 1: have different techniques to see how exposed to risks you are.

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Speaker 1: Pricing is very important. Costs are very important. Never know

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Speaker 1: whether the cost of a service goes up or down.

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Speaker 1: You've got to make forecasts and of course, geopolitical stability,

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Speaker 1: you know, are the terms and conditions you're given, the

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Speaker 1: ones that you will end up with when you start production.

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Speaker 1: That's usually the case here in the United States or

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Speaker 1: in Europe, but not always. When the price of oil

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Speaker 1: goes up, governments tend to look to take a bigger

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Speaker 1: chunk of the revenue. We've also seen a lot of

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Speaker 1: geopolitical instability around the world in the last couple of years,

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Speaker 1: seems like more than usual, maybe on a micro basis,

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Speaker 1: but country by country, you've got these oil facilities. How

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Speaker 1: do you measure that? How do you you know? How

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Speaker 1: do you know what's what's a good risk and what's

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Speaker 1: a bad risk. Well you can't, of course, So you've

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Speaker 1: got to think about the different possibilities of how things

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Speaker 1: come together and people, I mean generally none of us

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Speaker 1: are very good at I think, understanding what might happen

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Speaker 1: to nations. But you know, when prices are down, it's

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Speaker 1: usually not surprising that the political instability does go up

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Speaker 1: in some nations because there's less money around and says

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Speaker 1: someone loses. I love Mike your implication that there's like

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Speaker 1: a preximeter trump at meter out there that you can

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Speaker 1: check engage whether or not you're gonna run into some instability.

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Speaker 1: You know. I was just looking at some default data

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Speaker 1: this morning and it showed that defaults among US junk

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Speaker 1: bound company junk rated energy companies have soared beyond ten

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Speaker 1: percent and are expected to go up further a year

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Speaker 1: from now. Do you think that this sort of lower rated,

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Speaker 1: smaller suite of energy companies in the US will pose

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Speaker 1: less of a competition, Oh, definitely. I mean a lot

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Speaker 1: of them will get out of business and then post

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Speaker 1: bankruptcy the assets will be sold and some will if

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Speaker 1: they have any good assets. What you do see in

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Speaker 1: the market has a lot of recapitalizations, so equity for debt,

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Speaker 1: different type of restructuring of the debt waterfall. All of

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Speaker 1: that's taking place. But a lot of the assets which

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Speaker 1: are subject to these bankruptcies or the potential bankruptcies are

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Speaker 1: very very high cost, where I think investors are looking

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Speaker 1: and say, actually, the cost can't come down to make

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Speaker 1: this work unless the price of wars a hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: and that's too remote a possibility. But do you think

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Speaker 1: that as a result of this, other bigger companies are

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Speaker 1: going to ramp up supply to sort of. I think

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Speaker 1: that these small companies generally are not material again to

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Speaker 1: the big supply picture, and some of the medium sized companies,

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Speaker 1: which are excellent working in the in the unconventional business

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Speaker 1: in the US, can certainly turn up activity and get

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Speaker 1: production out more easily than these companies could have done.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think we'll notice the difference. And besides,

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Speaker 1: good assets never go away, so if they've got good things,

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Speaker 1: people will be there competing for these assets as they

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Speaker 1: are today. I mean they're paying huge amounts of money

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Speaker 1: for them. John Brown, Lord Brown, Barren Brown of Mattically,

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Speaker 1: thanks for being with today, Thanks for coming in. Hopefully

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Speaker 1: the pound isn't costing you too much money to come

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Speaker 1: over here. Matthew Harnboch is with us. He's got to

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Speaker 1: find shoulders. He's got to do it every day. He's

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Speaker 1: got to find where bond yields are going to go

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Speaker 1: in a world where, uh, this is who knows. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, it used to be that investors bought bonds.

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Speaker 1: Now central banks by bonds. Nobody knows who or why

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Speaker 1: or what's going to happen on a day to day basis.

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Speaker 1: But we're gonna ask matt Matt Yeah. He's the global

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Speaker 1: head of interest rate strategy at Morgan Stanley, and he

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Speaker 1: has made the bold call of the year, which is

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Speaker 1: by two thousand seven this time two thousand seventeen will

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Speaker 1: be living in a one percent ten year one percent

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Speaker 1: I say that again, one percent ten year universe, which

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Speaker 1: implies to me like you could use the yield curve

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Speaker 1: as a ruler at that point, right, Yes, the the

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Speaker 1: yield curve would be quite flat at at that point

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Speaker 1: in time. I mean, we're calling this the year of

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Speaker 1: the Bowl because we've got central banks that are easing

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Speaker 1: policy globally. We expect that to continue with the ECB

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Speaker 1: at some point this year, with the Bank of Japan

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Speaker 1: at some point this year, with the Bank of England

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Speaker 1: at some point this year. In our chief US economist

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Speaker 1: Ellen Zentner is expecting the Fed to do nothing for

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Speaker 1: the next eighteen months. So there's a lot going on

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Speaker 1: in central bank land, uh, and we expect that with

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Speaker 1: central banks doing what they're doing, it will be very difficult,

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Speaker 1: if not impossible, for interest rates to rise very much

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Speaker 1: in this environment. And so with that, we are looking

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Speaker 1: at economic growth globally, which will disappoint consensus expectations that

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Speaker 1: type of disappointment is going to send yields lower, and

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Speaker 1: that's kind of what we're forecasting at this point, yields lower.

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Speaker 1: You spent a lot of time in Japan looking at

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Speaker 1: the bond market they're living there. Are we experiencing the

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Speaker 1: Japanification of the US, So you know, the economies are

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Speaker 1: certainly different. UH. And I don't want to paint the

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Speaker 1: picture of the US economy that is like the Japanese economy,

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Speaker 1: but in terms of the type of deleveraging that has

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Speaker 1: happened in the US economy, UM, it definitely smells very

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Speaker 1: similar to what we saw in Japan. The players are different.

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Speaker 1: In Japan, you had a deleveraging of the corporate sector

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Speaker 1: UH and the banking sector UH. And in the United States,

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Speaker 1: the corporate sector hasn't really participated in that deleveraging. In fact,

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Speaker 1: they've actually been leveraging up their balance sheets. So how

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Speaker 1: long could US Treasury yields tenure yields stay at one?

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Speaker 1: So look, I think and that is going to depend

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Speaker 1: on what the Federal Reserve ends up doing and what

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Speaker 1: happens outside of the US economy. UM. One of the

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Speaker 1: big themes really starting since August of last year, was

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Speaker 1: that China began to change their currency regime UH, devaluing

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Speaker 1: their currency, and that's something that we expect will continue.

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Speaker 1: That changed the landscape for global interest rates at that

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Speaker 1: point in time, and since August of last year, we've

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Speaker 1: had really nothing but a bowl market in global bond yields. UH.

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Speaker 1: The reason is because the devaluation and depreciation of the

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Speaker 1: Chinese rim and B has allowed the disinflationary environment in

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Speaker 1: China to really be exported to other developed market economies globally.

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Speaker 1: That's what we're seeing in the US, we're talking about

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Speaker 1: Mett's call for a one percent treasury by the first

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Speaker 1: quarter of next year. Is that where you stop. Could

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Speaker 1: we go lower? We could, We could certainly go lower

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Speaker 1: than that, but you're going to have to start making

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Speaker 1: assumptions about federal reserve policy if you are expecting a

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Speaker 1: yield to fall too much below one percent. Here we're

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Speaker 1: talking principally about the quantitative easing program that the FED

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Speaker 1: had ended over a year ago coming back full force. UM.

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Speaker 1: That's an assumption that we're really not willing to make

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Speaker 1: at this point in time. Our coconomists are forecasting a

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Speaker 1: US growth picture that is going to disappoint people. We're

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Speaker 1: looking at growth next year to the tune of about

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Speaker 1: one point four percent in the United States. That's relative

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Speaker 1: to a consensus expectation above two. So we're talking about

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Speaker 1: a pretty big miss on US growth next year. That,

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Speaker 1: in my view, is going to get people talking about

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Speaker 1: the next move by the Federal Reserve being an easing.

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Speaker 1: But that's something that the markets won't fully price in

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Speaker 1: until we get much closer. Can I ask it? And

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Speaker 1: then I'll let Lesa carry it? But I gotta ask this, uh,

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Speaker 1: this question here when I was just thinking about the

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Speaker 1: implications of a one tenure and one that could go

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Speaker 1: lower and the flat yield curve, what would you tell

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Speaker 1: somebody to buy if you're talking about an interest rate

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Speaker 1: spread of between twos and tens of thirty basis points

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Speaker 1: or something like that, I mean, what would you buy?

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Speaker 1: And even why? Yeah? Well, I mean I think one

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Speaker 1: of the things that you would look for is just

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Speaker 1: higher yields. And the question that you'd have to answer

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Speaker 1: is how much risk would you be willing to take

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Speaker 1: for that incremental yield pick up? And you're talking about

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Speaker 1: extending from the ten year Treasury security to the thirty

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Speaker 1: year treasury security. That's a very large jump up in

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Speaker 1: duration risk that you'd be taking in your portfolio. But

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Speaker 1: if you want that incremental yield, that's what you're going

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Speaker 1: to have to do. And that's what investors globally are

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Speaker 1: facing these days. Is this this decision between how much

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Speaker 1: incremental yield do I want in my portfolio versus how

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Speaker 1: much risk am I willing to take to get that

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Speaker 1: incremental yield. You wonder whether it would happen at the

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Speaker 1: thirty lisa because there aren't that many and and and

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Speaker 1: if everybody's searching for yield, well, you know I want

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Speaker 1: to I want to take the opposite side of this.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm looking at flows OTA just for for

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Speaker 1: U s E. T f s that focus on government bonds.

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Speaker 1: In a year to day, there's been almost nine billion

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Speaker 1: dollars of inflows, increasing the assets, the total assets and

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Speaker 1: these funds by more than twelve percent. You've seen incredible

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Speaker 1: record breaking flows going into in particular US government bonds

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Speaker 1: and investment grade bonds. What is the risk that you're

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Speaker 1: wrong and that something happens and yields rise and these

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Speaker 1: bets are going to go very bad, very quickly. Well,

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Speaker 1: there's there's always that risk. I mean that risk has

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Speaker 1: been present for thirty years, but that really hasn't stopped

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Speaker 1: interest rates from trending lower. You need to look at

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Speaker 1: what people are expecting and how things are going to

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Speaker 1: come in versus those expectations. And for the past thirty years,

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Speaker 1: we've had an inflation environment in the US which has

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Speaker 1: just not met people's expectations. Inflation has come in much lower,

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Speaker 1: and that's what our economists are expecting will continue. When

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Speaker 1: you look at the G ten economies across the developed world,

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Speaker 1: we're forecasting core rates of inflation that are not going

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Speaker 1: to meet central bank targets for a long time. What

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Speaker 1: would you have to see? What would Morgan Stanley have

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Speaker 1: to see to change that view. I think one of

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Speaker 1: the things that would change our view is if we

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Speaker 1: got the type of fiscal stimulus out of some of

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Speaker 1: the major economies in the world that people aren't expecting,

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Speaker 1: Like what, well, we're we have to see something coming

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Speaker 1: out of the euro Area that's not We just don't

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Speaker 1: think the politics in Europe or the politics in the

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Speaker 1: US are going to help us achieve that type of

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus. That really is needed. Now in Japan, it's

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Speaker 1: a different story. We're expecting eight trillion yen worth of

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Speaker 1: real spending coming out of the Abbe administration. That's something

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Speaker 1: that people are talking about and have been talking about

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Speaker 1: for many, many months now. But that's what we're expecting.

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Speaker 1: We're not expecting that type of fiscal stimulus to come

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Speaker 1: out of Europe, the US, or even the UK. Do

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Speaker 1: you see helicopter money being on the table for Europe.

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Speaker 1: We don't see helicopter money as it has been popularized

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Speaker 1: in the media. Uh. The the idea of helicopter money

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Speaker 1: is one that we actually are already dealing with today

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Speaker 1: in the fact that you have some governments that are

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Speaker 1: running fiscal deficits, and you have central banks that are

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Speaker 1: in a sense monetizing those deficits in their with their

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Speaker 1: qui programs. That is what I would call de facto

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Speaker 1: helicopter money. Do you think that central banks will forgive

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Speaker 1: the debt for the government it will cancel out? I

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Speaker 1: don't think that is in the cards. No. Um Politically,

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Speaker 1: it would be probably unpalatable for these central banks to

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Speaker 1: even consider doing something like that. So that's not something

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Speaker 1: that we would expect to happen at all. How would

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Speaker 1: explicit helicopter money affect trading in the bond market. Uh

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Speaker 1: if if basically the conduit is from the fiscal authority

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Speaker 1: to the monetary authority, where do retail investors or institutional

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Speaker 1: investors come in that, and how would it work? I mean,

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Speaker 1: in some ways, it would be similar to a traditional

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus. There's going to be spending coming from the

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Speaker 1: government hitting the bank accounts of private sector players. Uh.

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Speaker 1: They're going to spend that money, and the question is

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Speaker 1: what does the fiscal multiplier look like when you have

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Speaker 1: this injection of cash into the economy. So ultimately, in

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Speaker 1: the near term, you would see bond yields likely rise

400
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Speaker 1: because the expectation for helicopter money is quite low at

401
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Speaker 1: this point in time and the price of these markets.

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Speaker 1: If you got helicopter money, I would expect to see

403
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Speaker 1: bond yields rise. Uh. That, however, I would also expect

404
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Speaker 1: to be temporary, because keep in mind, you're going to

405
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Speaker 1: have a lot more money chasing not as many government bonds.

406
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Speaker 1: Think about it this way, when you have traditional fiscal stimulus,

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Speaker 1: you have government spending, and then you have an increase

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Speaker 1: in bond supply, so eventually that money can find its

409
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Speaker 1: way into bonds. But helicopter money simply is just an

410
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Speaker 1: expansion of the money supply. But there's no there's no

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Speaker 1: offsetting increase in government bond supply. So ultimately, and here

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Speaker 1: we're talking years down the road, but if you do

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Speaker 1: get helicopter money, it could actually end up being more

414
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Speaker 1: bullish for government bonds over the long term because you

415
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Speaker 1: don't have that increase in government bond supply. What if

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Speaker 1: you're wrong in your call, What if the economy surprises

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Speaker 1: to the upside, the FED raises rates, even as some

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Speaker 1: them have suggested in the last couple of weeks twice

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Speaker 1: this year. This isn't just a call. I mean, if

420
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Speaker 1: so many people are in at such a low yield um,

421
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Speaker 1: there could be a rush for the door. Absolutely, and

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Speaker 1: that's why at Morgan Stanley we have a framework when

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Speaker 1: we're forecasting interest rates, equities, foreign exchange where we put

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Speaker 1: together bull and bear scenarios. You know what, if we're wrong,

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Speaker 1: there's always a chance, uh, And so in our bear

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Speaker 1: case scenario for government bonds, which would include some of

427
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Speaker 1: the assumptions that you talked about with central banks raising

428
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Speaker 1: rates the FED in particular, we would be looking at

429
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Speaker 1: higher bond yields. Absolutely in that case, I could see

430
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Speaker 1: the tenure treasury going above two fairly easily if the

431
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: FED were to continue to raise rates and the rest

432
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: of the global economy were to improve. That's a key

433
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: assumption there. But how do people get out in that

434
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 1: situation without getting killed? Well, government bond the government bond

435
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 1: markets are the most liquid markets in the in the world,

436
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: so until they met in last crash in the bond

437
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: market ones, that's right, and in the flat and the

438
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: and the and this is what investors have to try

439
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 1: to understand, is that with the generally reduced UH liquidity

440
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 1: in times of stress, you know, you you do have

441
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:14,919
Speaker 1: to you do have to take that into consideration. But

442
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: I would say in general, if the FED were to

443
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 1: high rates, I would operate on the assumption that we

444
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 1: would not be in a time of stress really quickly.

445
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 1: Do you see us at the beginning of a massive

446
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: asset bubble that we have not seen before as people

447
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 1: rush into risk your assets as a result of these

448
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 1: incredibly low yields. Well, acid bubbles are in the eye

449
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 1: of the beholder. Um, I don't see a bubble in bonds.

450
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,959
Speaker 1: I haven't seen a bubble and government bonds in some time. Uh.

451
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 1: Here we're talking about supply and demand. Central banks are

452
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: increasing their demand for bonds. Bond prices are responding accordingly. Uh,

453
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 1: That to me is not necessarily a bubble, all right.

454
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: Matthew Harna from Morgan's Daley Global Head of Interest rate Strategy,

455
00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 1: thanks for joining us. Well. Donald Trump did speak last night.

456
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: They dropped the balloons. The party is over in Cleveland,

457
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 1: but the memories linger. Vin Webber is with Mercury Partner's

458
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 1: former member of Congress, UH frequent Bloomberg surveillance guests, and Vin,

459
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 1: I know you were there for. What did you stay

460
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 1: for the whole thing? I did not, Mike. I was

461
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 1: there Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. But I'm not a delegate,

462
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 1: and I've been through enough conventions to know that the

463
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,360
Speaker 1: best part of wisdom is getting out of town before

464
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 1: the candidate accepted the nomination. Otherwise you got a crush

465
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 1: at the airport. So I left yesterday afternoon, came home

466
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 1: and watch speech last night from my in my living room.

467
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 1: We'll get to the speech at a moment, but up

468
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 1: to the point where you left. What was it like, Well,

469
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: it was it was different. Uh. In this regard, you

470
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: normally go to a convention. By the time you're at

471
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 1: the convention, the divisions of the primary season are pretty

472
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 1: much behind you, and almost every buddy is excited to

473
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 1: varying degrees about their nominee. Now, by the time we

474
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 1: got to the convention in Tampa, everybody was pretty excited

475
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: about Romney, even though there had been a bitter campaign

476
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: in the primaries against him. But everybody got the time.

477
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: This was not the case in Cleveland. There are still

478
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 1: an awful lot of people running around unhappy about Donald

479
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 1: Trump or resigned at best having supported him. I do

480
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 1: think over the course of the convention, the natural dynamic

481
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 1: of the party coming together did it have some effect

482
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 1: for him, But in my observation, it never became quite

483
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 1: the celebration that you expected. The National Convention. Did you

484
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: actually hear people debating on the floor why they were

485
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 1: or were not enthusiastic about him? Oh? Yeah, you heard

486
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: a lot of people talking about that. And all the

487
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 1: truth is, if you if you become a delegate to

488
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 1: the Republican National Convention, of those people do not want

489
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 1: to cause trouble for Donald Trump. So it's not like

490
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 1: they were making I mean, I think the Trump people,

491
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 1: by the way, made some trouble for themselves in fighting

492
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 1: that rule on Monday of the convention. They didn't need

493
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: to fight that. They could have they would have won.

494
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 1: They said they had of the votes on their side.

495
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: They could have let the vote take in place, and

496
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,239
Speaker 1: had a lot of people who felt some pressure had

497
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: been let off. But most of these people wanted to

498
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 1: get behind Trump. But you had an awful lot of

499
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 1: people talking about how they were much more focused on

500
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: re electing their senators and their governor and their congressmen,

501
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: and they were just hopeful that Trump would end up

502
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: not being a drag on the ticket in their home state.

503
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 1: So it was it was a mixed bag in a

504
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 1: way that you don't really see it conventions very often.

505
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: Maybe back in nineteen seventy six, if you want to

506
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 1: go back that far, the Reagan people were not excited

507
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 1: about getting behind Gerald Fort but it was not quite

508
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: like this. I mean, they were they were waiting for

509
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: four years later when they were going to get breaking

510
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 1: elected president. My brain, when I am thinking about what

511
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 1: we saw this week, sort of went back to seventy two.

512
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 1: I don't want to make too much of a sixty

513
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: eight comparison because that was outside the hall, and uh,

514
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 1: it was, you know, a really kind of horrible time.

515
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 1: But in seventy two in Miami, the mcgoverned people ran

516
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: the convention about as well as Donald Trump's people did,

517
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 1: as I remember, uh, and I remember that George McGovern

518
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 1: started speaking at instead of Thursday night on Friday morning.

519
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: By the time he was speaking, have other than that.

520
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 1: Have you ever seen a convention run as badly as

521
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 1: this one, or one that generated as many negative headlines

522
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 1: as this one? Well, let me first of all put

523
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: a caveat on that the management of the physical management

524
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: of the convention was good. And I want to say

525
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 1: that because Cleveland was a wonderful town. I I and

526
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: they've had some bad luck over the years, but I

527
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: want to say Cleveland ran a great convention. The people

528
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 1: were good, there were no safety problems, everything right efficiently.

529
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: Now in terms of the program of the convention itself,

530
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 1: which was not the responsibility of the people in Cleveland,

531
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: but the responsibility of the Trump campaign, You're right, they

532
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: screwed it up badly. They they they didn't let their

533
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: speeches properly. They didn't have the right speakers up there.

534
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 1: They fought fights, as I mentioned a minute ago on

535
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: the rules that they didn't need to fight. They got

536
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: into a public argument with Governor kasik unnecessarily the most

537
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 1: popular Republican in the state of Ohio. Uh. And I

538
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: I think that they did a lot of things that

539
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 1: they did not manage the message coming out of the

540
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: campaign very well. But I want to say for our

541
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 1: friends in Cleveland, they did a nice job. You know.

542
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: I was struck by Ted Cruise's speech and how that

543
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 1: was really a galvanizing moment for the entire room at

544
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: the convention, and it's sort of coalesced, uh, the delegates

545
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 1: and everybody there around Donald Trump in a in a way.

546
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 1: Do you think that it read the same way to

547
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:48,479
Speaker 1: the people watching on TV? No, I don't think so.

548
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 1: I think the the analysis afterwards permeated and people around

549
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: the country saw, yeah, that was not a gracious thing

550
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 1: that Ted Cruz did, um, But I don't I think

551
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: people watching TV saw something different. The sad thing for

552
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 1: somebody that comes from my perspective is that the substance

553
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: of Ted Cruz's speech forgetting for a second that he

554
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: didn't endorse Trump. If if you can forget that, the

555
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: substance was a very important message. I mean, he talked

556
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: about things that Republicans hadn't talked about for a while.

557
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: He talked about Abraham Lincoln, he talked about the Emancipation Proclamation,

558
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: he talked about the nineteen sixty four Civil Rights Act,

559
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 1: and he actually talked about LGBT rights. I mean, that

560
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: was a message coming up, as it did from the

561
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 1: most conservative candidate in our primaries. It was really quite

562
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 1: remarkable and would have been a positive contribution to the

563
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 1: communications coming out of that convention. But it was all

564
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: swept away by the focus on the fact that he

565
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: declined to endorse. And if he had just begun by saying,

566
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: I'm pleased to be here and endorse our candidate Donald Trump.

567
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 1: Now here are my thoughts. That's all I needed to do.

568
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: One sentence would have gotten the focus on the substance

569
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: of his speech instead of on the snub Donald Trump.

570
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of things spilled over the idea

571
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump manages to consistently land on his feet

572
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: regardless of how much bad press he and his campaign gets.

573
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: Do you think that this convention is the same. I

574
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: think that. I think that he ended the camp the

575
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 1: convention with a speech that sets him in the direction

576
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 1: that he wants to go. I'm not a Trump Republican,

577
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: but I have to say I thought he did better

578
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: than I thought he would last night. He avoided, uh,

579
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: sort of the off the cuff demonization of the other side.

580
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 1: He presented a dark picture of America, much darker than

581
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: I think is justified by reality. But he did portray

582
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 1: himself as the person to fix that problem and to

583
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 1: make us safe, and to rebuild our infrastructure and things

584
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: like that. And I think that I think that you know,

585
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 1: but at the end of the day, the candidates speech

586
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: is what matters at these conventions, and he I don't

587
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 1: think he This was not a beach i'lla Ronald Reagan

588
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: or Barack Obama back in two thousand and eight, but

589
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: it was it got him where he needed to be. Well,

590
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: do you think you think a majority of Americans would

591
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: be willing to buy that vision of American? I think

592
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: that's a big question in this campaign, maybe the biggest

593
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: question in this campaign. We've had more than one candidate

594
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 1: running on a dark vision of America. Bernie Sanders was

595
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: was pretty dark in his approach to America. UM, and

596
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 1: we'll see. I wonder what the Democrats are gonna do

597
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: in Philadelphia next week. If they'll spend all their time

598
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: talking about the negative side. That's that will be harder

599
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 1: for them to do because they've been in the White

600
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 1: House for eight years. It's you know, when you run

601
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 1: for office, there there's a strange danger in being too optimistic.

602
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 1: And we always say if people want to be optimistic,

603
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 1: people want to vote for optimism. I think that's true,

604
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 1: but they also want to know that you feel their pain,

605
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: that you understand that there are problems to be solved.

606
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 1: You don't want to tell them you've never had it

607
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: so good. We need to get some band to this

608
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 1: message about where America is. We face significant threats, but

609
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:06,239
Speaker 1: you know, you just look at the reality of it is.

610
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 1: America has never been so dominant, for instance, in the

611
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: emerging technologies of the day than we are right now

612
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 1: with biotechnology and nanotechnology and artificial intelligence and all the

613
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 1: things that are going to dominate the economy for the

614
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: next fifty years. Well you can you can have been

615
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: here all that technology. On the Bloomberg Plus radio app

616
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 1: talking with Vin Weber, who is now a partner at

617
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:35,919
Speaker 1: Mercury Partners and former member of Congress from Minnesota. Where

618
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 1: as we know, everybody is nice. Um, this was not

619
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 1: a nice convention. This was not a nice speech by

620
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, who is not a nice nominee in your

621
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 1: old district. How would this play? Are people as upset

622
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 1: so that you know they don't mind insulting people and

623
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 1: calling each other names? Um Or is this going to

624
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: be a tough sell? I don't think it plays well

625
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 1: in my part of the country, to be honest about it.

626
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 1: You know, in our caucuses in Minnesota, Mr Trump finished third,

627
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio one, Ted Cruz finished second, and Trump finished third.

628
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 1: In Minnesota was one of the states that petitioned for

629
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 1: an opening of the rules, this time to allow people

630
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 1: to vote their conscience. I think, you know, across a

631
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 1: lot of the there's an argument that Trump has an

632
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 1: appeal across the Midwest in places that we refer to

633
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: unfortunately derogatorially as the rest Belt, by angry people who

634
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 1: have been displaced by manufacturing jobs. Okay, I get, I

635
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 1: get that. There is a certain truth to that. There's

636
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 1: also a certain civility to politics across the Midwest. We

637
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 1: don't like people that engage in insult and denigration of

638
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 1: their opponents. Uh. And I think that you know that

639
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 1: it cuts both ways for him. I think he's gonna

640
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 1: have at a very tough time in my part of

641
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 1: the country. I don't think he can carry Minnesota. I

642
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,879
Speaker 1: don't think he can carry Wisconsin. But you know, he's

643
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 1: got a peal in some ways. Regardless of what happens,

644
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 1: particularly with Donald Trump's campaign, the Republican Party in general

645
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 1: will not look the same after this. Do you think

646
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: that this will be the beginning of a split that

647
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 1: will result in two different parties. Well, you've raised a

648
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,839
Speaker 1: very very important and big issue. Lease. I I don't

649
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 1: know if we actually split into two parties or not.

650
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 1: But once we get past the arguments about Donald Trump's

651
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 1: personality and the civility of his remarks and questions about

652
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 1: you know, racial demigration and all those things that matter

653
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 1: but that are quite unique to Donald Trump, Uh, you're

654
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 1: left with some big issue differences that he's brought into

655
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 1: the Repelican Party. We used to be the party of

656
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: liberal trade, free trade. Now he's running on a more

657
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 1: protectionist platform than the Democrats are likely to run on uh.

658
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: We used to be the party of liberal immigration policies,

659
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 1: or at least sensible immigration policies. Now we're going to

660
00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 1: build walls and deport people. His approach to foreign policy,

661
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 1: which was highlighted just this week in the interview that

662
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,840
Speaker 1: he gave to The New York Times where he questioned

663
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 1: whether or not we would actually honor our NATO commitments

664
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 1: if the Russians moved, shall we say in the Baltics?

665
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a this, this this in the

666
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 1: party that has prided itself, at least since McGovern's candidacy

667
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 1: in seventy two, as being the party of strong international leadership.

668
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 1: Those are all big issues and they're not going to

669
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 1: go away after this election. And I can't. There's a

670
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: big segment of the Republican Party that is not going

671
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:34,720
Speaker 1: to follow him or anybody else down that path of protectionism,

672
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 1: native nativism, and potentially isolationism. I understand that his people

673
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 1: reject those labels, but I'm sorry. You know, I've been

674
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 1: in these debates a long time. That's the kind of

675
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 1: politics that they're practicing, and it's and it's not what

676
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 1: my Republican Party has always stood for and there's got

677
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: to be a party that stands for the things that

678
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 1: we have stood for traditionally. I'd like it to become

679
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,080
Speaker 1: my party again. But if if we were moving being

680
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 1: in a Trumpian direction, you could well see a challenge

681
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,320
Speaker 1: to the two party system as it exists today. We

682
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 1: had people matt as hell and not going to take

683
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: it anymore in but the Parole phenomenon flamed out, the

684
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 1: Contract with America, which you know well, uh, the Republicans

685
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 1: came to power. Everybody was upset, throw the bums out,

686
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 1: and that anger seems to have faded. So do we

687
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 1: think that this may be just a Trump flash in

688
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 1: the pan or is there a real seat change coming.

689
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 1: I think you cannot overstate the degree to which the

690
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 1: personality of Donald Trump has contributed to this. There are

691
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 1: real concerns in the country, and he's obviously touched a

692
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: real cord with real voters. You can't deny that. But

693
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 1: there's ways in which you can appeal to the voters

694
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,919
Speaker 1: and talk about their problems that are a lot less

695
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 1: inflammatory and a lot less divisive. And we have a

696
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 1: candidate here who has decided to ignore are that and

697
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 1: and to throw away the rules of civility and to

698
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: ignore the potential damage he's doing by dividing the country.

699
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 1: If you remove him from the stage, I think there's

700
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 1: a chance that you can deal with these issues rationally

701
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: and seriously. I mean most. I think that he's set

702
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: a message, and the voters have sent a message to

703
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats alike that there are some problems that

704
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: aren't being dealt with. But you know, you don't need

705
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: to resort to the kind of bigotry and demagoguery that

706
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 1: we've seen in his campaign in order to appeal to

707
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 1: those voters. You know, just real quick and about thirty seconds,

708
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: what's the alternative? You said, this is not my Republican

709
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:38,399
Speaker 1: party this election? What's the alternative? Oh boy, you've asked

710
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 1: the tough question for I'm gonna I'm gonna duck Plica.

711
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 1: And here's the way I duck. Which sides of the way.

712
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: I think a lot of Republicans are gonna dock. We've

713
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: got great United States senators running free election. We've got

714
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 1: really good members of Congress running free election. We've got

715
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:54,839
Speaker 1: Paul Ryan who has put forward an agenda for Republicans,

716
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 1: And I'm going to focus my effort on Congressional Republicans.

717
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,080
Speaker 1: All right, a great duck which shows why we it

718
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:04,399
Speaker 1: was a politician. Thank you for joining us this morning.

719
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 1: Vid Webber from Mercury Partners. I feel like we should

720
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: have this next discussion in a bar. I mean, it

721
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: is five o'clock somewhere, right, Lisa. I have to preface

722
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 1: it by saying that when I before I got married

723
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 1: to my husband, he made me read Moneyball about saber

724
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 1: metrics to make sure that I agreed with a statistical view.

725
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 1: And you do because you're still happily married. Correct, Um?

726
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: And I mean but I mean, um, this is a

727
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 1: great book Ahead of the curve. Bye bye. Brian Kenny

728
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: Uh he uh, He's taken this to a whole new

729
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 1: level here. It's not just you know, using statistics, but

730
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 1: how you could use statistics, things you could do. He

731
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 1: works for Major League Baseball Network, so he obviously watches

732
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: a whole lot of games. Just the fascinating suggest The

733
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 1: one I want to talk to you about, Brian, that

734
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 1: I want to start with is the idea of what

735
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 1: you call bullpenning. Uh. You learned this from the Cubans.

736
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 1: You know, you don't have starting pittures. You just have

737
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 1: pictures and you run them out there until you know

738
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 1: they're ineffective, and you can go through a whole bunch

739
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 1: of pictures a game. I mean, this is why I

740
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 1: say it's at the bar, because this just this one

741
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 1: topic alone, we could spend hours on. The First thing

742
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,920
Speaker 1: that struck me is, you know, I root for the

743
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 1: Mets who have a mediocre bullpen this year and they're

744
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 1: looking for help. Can you find enough pictures, uh to

745
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,399
Speaker 1: to do that kind of thing? Who would be good

746
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 1: enough for you know, all of the major league teams? Absolutely,

747
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 1: I mean no question, I mean one. Yeah, we can

748
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 1: have this discussed it in a bar or a boardroom.

749
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,879
Speaker 1: I mean, this is all about asking questions like why

750
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: do we do the things the way we do? Why

751
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 1: do we do it this way? And the answer to

752
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 1: that you probably know this through your own life. The

753
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,840
Speaker 1: answer most of the time is well, because that's the

754
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,280
Speaker 1: way we've always done it. The reason we have earning

755
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: pictures is because that's what we did in the nineteenth

756
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 1: century when only one guy would pitch the whole afternoon,

757
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 1: and that was what The reason why that was was

758
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 1: because the early part of the game was really batter

759
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 1: versus fielder. The picture was just there as a delivery system.

760
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,280
Speaker 1: He threw the ball. You can actually ask the picture

761
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 1: to throw it in a certain spot and you could

762
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 1: hit it, and then you ran around the basis. It

763
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 1: was a very exciting game. That's really where all of

764
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 1: this comes from. We had one picture pitching all day.

765
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 1: Now we obviously don't do that now, But why do

766
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 1: we still have the nineteenth century model of one guy

767
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 1: going out there for six innings until he's exhausted or

768
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 1: gives up a bunch of runs, and then we go

769
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 1: save him no start from the very start, just throwing

770
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:43,840
Speaker 1: two winnings a shot, maybe one inning a shot, like

771
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 1: the way you've see in an All Star game. And specifically,

772
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 1: to answer your question, the average major league team now

773
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 1: uses twenty three pitchers per season. There's plenty of pictures

774
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 1: to absorb intings if you just do the simple map,

775
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 1: each pitcher could and that we're not going to give

776
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: all those lesser pictures the equal amount of innings, of course,

777
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 1: but you could average about ninety innings a shot. So

778
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 1: now we have guys throwing two hundred innings and guys

779
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,760
Speaker 1: throwing sixty innings. What's wrong with somewhere in the middle.

780
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: That's a better usage of pitching and a much better strategy,

781
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 1: and you will prevent many more runs. Is the argument

782
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:20,439
Speaker 1: here that, uh, that pictures will get hurt less, they'll

783
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 1: be fewer injuries. Uh, and they'll also basically a really

784
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 1: good picture, a better picture than another after two innings

785
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 1: is just as bad as the other one. Is that

786
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 1: the idea, well, it's it's it's really even simpler than that.

787
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 1: I mean, you could definitely get more complicated, and of

788
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 1: course you would try to tailor this to your personnel.

789
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 1: I use a track analogy in that some people are

790
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 1: very good marathoners they're just built that way. And some

791
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 1: people are good sprinters, they're built that way. In baseball,

792
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 1: we have milers and sprinters. We don't use anybody for

793
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: like a four anymore. We used to in the fifties,

794
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 1: sixties and seventies we had our relief pictures going d

795
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 1: and twenty innings. Some did a hundred and forty innings.

796
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,360
Speaker 1: That's a bit much to go full throttle. But the

797
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,919
Speaker 1: basic way to think about it is that you are

798
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 1: faster when you sprint than when you jog. So why

799
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 1: have someone saying why have someone out there at all

800
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: thinking I'm going to pitch the whole afternoon. No you're not. Blast,

801
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 1: put your foot down on the accelerator, give us four

802
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 1: outs and you're out, and we give it to the

803
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:23,440
Speaker 1: next guy. We seem to be sort of moving in

804
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 1: that direction, and Kansas City sort of pitches like that

805
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 1: to a certain extent. And the Yankees now with the

806
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 1: three relief pitchers they have, I mean, they don't care

807
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 1: if their starter doesn't go beyond five. Well, you see,

808
00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 1: that's a fascinating point. We are, we're moving inexorably toward it.

809
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 1: But this is the history of baseball, and again this

810
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 1: transcends baseball. We're moving there, it's going there, it's going

811
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 1: to get there. So my question is why doesn't someone

812
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 1: just do it? And the reason someone just doesn't do

813
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 1: it is because that's not what the herd is doing.

814
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:58,160
Speaker 1: We have a herd mentality. We're strongly influenced by those

815
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 1: around us, our culture, and again, the is more than

816
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:03,399
Speaker 1: just baseball. You can, you know, think about these things

817
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 1: when you're talking to your next guest about business or

818
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 1: anything else. You're talking to a CEO. The herd mentality

819
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 1: is powerful. We only do what we think will be

820
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 1: accepted by our peers, which to me is fascinating in baseball,

821
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,280
Speaker 1: or you could extend it to business because you're competing.

822
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 1: You're competing with these people. Why are you playing ball

823
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 1: with them? Certain you should be beating them, but to

824
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 1: play Devil's advocate. I mean, baseball goes to the heart

825
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,720
Speaker 1: of Americana and of culture. And you know, part of

826
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 1: the culture of baseball is the idea of a picture

827
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 1: having a no hitter, or you know, the celebrity picture

828
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 1: that everyone just goes to a game to watch Matt

829
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,280
Speaker 1: Harvey at his peak, you know, all the classic pictures.

830
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 1: Doesn't your method take away from that magic? Yes? Like that, Frank,

831
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 1: I'm admitting it to you. It's not as fun. And

832
00:45:57,600 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 1: I like to going to the ballpark and knowing, oh,

833
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 1: it's gonna be you know who you have Matt Harvey

834
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 1: versus uh, you know, Madison bum Gardner. Hey, it's gonna

835
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 1: be ay. Tim lindscom is pitching today. That's exciting. Yeah,

836
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 1: you do lose something like that. I know people and

837
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:15,439
Speaker 1: I've talked to you know, historians and people who really

838
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 1: know baseball, and they say, yeah, you know, Brian, you're

839
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 1: right but I don't like it, so, yes, you're right,

840
00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 1: wouldn't wouldn't it be fun? I'm just thinking about this

841
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:28,280
Speaker 1: that you throw our oldest chapman in one inning, followed

842
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:33,919
Speaker 1: by Stephen Wright. Right, already, already you're thinking more than

843
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 1: they are about it. You're right, you change angles, you

844
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,319
Speaker 1: change now, that's fascinating You've got from people don't know.

845
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 1: You go from a guy who's throwing a hundred and

846
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 1: five to a knuckleballer. You'd be screwed up for a while,

847
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 1: and then you're bringing the next guy throwing side arm.

848
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 1: Of course that you're thinking, we gotta start a team.

849
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 1: In the very beginning of your book, you had a

850
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 1: line to adopt new methods is not just a stray

851
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: from the pack, but to mock the herd itself. And

852
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 1: of course the reaction to being marked isn't always that positive.

853
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 1: What have what have? Some of the response has been, well, um, well,

854
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 1: people just agree basically. And I think as I go

855
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 1: into leban this is a baseball presents a fascinating study

856
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 1: of human behavior. And I did extra reading on this.

857
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 1: I have one chapter in there on a guy who

858
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: works for the Houston Astros who was a He worked

859
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 1: for NASA before this, and he's has several doctorates and

860
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 1: degrees in human behavior. His name is sigmayd All and

861
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 1: he's the director of Decision Sciences now that he was

862
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: the first of its kind in baseball, clearly, and it

863
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,319
Speaker 1: was done like WHOA right in your face? What we

864
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 1: have a director of decision sciences and in baseball that

865
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 1: was unheard of. But when you study why we make decisions,

866
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 1: you realize how many blind spots we really have. And

867
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 1: I think people that just stand back for a moment

868
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 1: and just think about how am I making decisions? Why

869
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 1: do I make my decisions? And am just afraid of

870
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:05,280
Speaker 1: what other people will think? Or am I afraid of failure? Because,

871
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 1: as I point out in the book, if you fail conventionally,

872
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 1: you're fine. If you fail unconventionally, you're you know, a

873
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:15,879
Speaker 1: smart alec. You're trying to get by and on your

874
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 1: wits and you've made everybody else or you tried to

875
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 1: make everybody else look bad, and there are real repercussions

876
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: for that. All right, well, we're we we don't have

877
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 1: any more time, unfortunately, so we're gonna have to have

878
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 1: you back because the subject is so deep and so complex,

879
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 1: and if we're going to start a team, I suppose

880
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 1: Tom's gonna want some sort of input into you know,

881
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 1: who's who's on the roster. Too many red Sox for

882
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 1: my taste, but you know, Brian Kenny, thanks for joining us.

883
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,280
Speaker 1: The book is Ahead of the Curve, inside the Baseball Revolution.

884
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 1: And when he says revolution, Lisa, he means revolution. And

885
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:49,719
Speaker 1: maybe a lot of people aren't protesting him now, but

886
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:53,320
Speaker 1: certainly when Savior Metrics was beginning, Uh, it inspired a

887
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: lot of animosity across the baseball universe. All right, I'm

888
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:00,839
Speaker 1: waiting for I still want Chapman by right. I think

889
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:04,439
Speaker 1: that would be the most hilarious thing anybody could ever see.

890
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 1: Thank you for being with us today and filling in

891
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 1: for Tom and uh not talking a lot of math

892
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:13,880
Speaker 1: and understanding baseball and all the good things that you

893
00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 1: brought to the show today. Thanks for listening to the

894
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud,

895
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:28,759
Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at

896
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: Tom Keane, Michael McKee is at Economy Before the podcast,

897
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio