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Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Tuesday, the thirtieth of January in London.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak euro A podcast. I'm Stephen Carroll.

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Speaker 1: Coming up today, the United States weighs how far to

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Speaker 1: go and responding to Iran and its proxies after three

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Speaker 1: soldiers were killed in Jordan after a two year standoff,

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Speaker 1: a deal is struck to restore power sharing in Northern Ireland.

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Speaker 1: Plus the Path to Power, we have a special report

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Speaker 1: looking at White Labour's UK election prospects, hinge on winning

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Speaker 1: over older, richer voters. Let's start with a round up

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Speaker 1: of our top stories. The United States is said to

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Speaker 1: be looking for a response to the deadly attack on

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Speaker 1: its troops in Jordan. That's tough enough to deter Iran

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Speaker 1: and its proxies without sparking a direct war. That's according

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Speaker 1: to officials and experts who've been speaking to Bloomberg. President

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden is facing mounting political pressure to respond forcefully

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Speaker 1: to the drone assault, which killed three US soldiers and

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Speaker 1: wounded dozens of others. US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln

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Speaker 1: says the US wants to prevent the Middle East conflict

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Speaker 1: from spreading, but will respond strongly to the attack.

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Speaker 2: To anyone who would try to use the crisis in

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Speaker 2: the Middle East, the conflict in the Middle East, to

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Speaker 2: so further instability, and to use it as an excuse

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Speaker 2: to attack our personnel, we will respond. We will respond strongly.

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Speaker 2: We will respond at a time in place of our choosing.

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Speaker 3: Ashley B.

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Speaker 1: Lincoln's comments come after a source familiar with the Biden

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Speaker 1: administration's position told Bloomberg the US response would be stronger

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Speaker 1: than its most recent retaliations against Iranian proxies. The view

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Speaker 1: underlines the risks of further escalation in a conflict that's

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Speaker 1: already spread from Gaza across the Middle East. Israeli intelligence

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Speaker 1: has claimed that up to ten percent of the UN

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Speaker 1: Relief Agency's twelve thousand workers in Gaza were members of

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Speaker 1: the militant groups Hamas and Palestelian Islamic Jihad. The assessment

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Speaker 1: seen by Bloomberg also alleges that six employees with the

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Speaker 1: UN Relief and Works Agency infiltrated Israeli territory during the

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Speaker 1: deadly October seventh attack. The report comes after the unise

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Speaker 1: its Nations fired several UNRUAS staffers last week in response

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Speaker 1: to the initial claim from Israel. The US, UK and

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Speaker 1: others have suspended funding for the agency, while the UN

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Speaker 1: says there will be an urgent and comprehensive independent review.

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Speaker 1: The sell off on Chinese stock markets is resumed, giving

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Speaker 1: a clear signal to policymakers that more steps will be

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Speaker 1: needed to revive investor confidence. The liquidation of the Evergrand Group,

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Speaker 1: once the country's top developer, has intensified concerns about the

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Speaker 1: property sector. Investco's investment director William Yuen says sellers are

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Speaker 1: overlooking the more positive outlook over.

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Speaker 4: The last two months. It has been a noticeable pickup

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Speaker 4: in terms of FISCO support monetary support, and that I

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Speaker 4: think with such a large economy as is China, it

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Speaker 4: takes time to foot it down to all positive economy.

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Speaker 4: So I do expect that after the Lunar period probably

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Speaker 4: numbers will looked a lot more better.

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Speaker 1: Despite UN's optimism, the ten year government bond yield in

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Speaker 1: China's led to the lowest point in twenty two years

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Speaker 1: as investors fled to haven ascid. The move suggests that

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Speaker 1: some traders are expecting government stimulus on the horizon. Northern

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Speaker 1: Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has agreed to end its boycott

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Speaker 1: of the region's power sharing Assembly, ending two years of

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Speaker 1: political stalemate. The DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson says his party's

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Speaker 1: return to Storm and his contingent on the UK government

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Speaker 1: passing a new law reducing the impact of post bregsit

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Speaker 1: trade rules. He says recent talks, which included a promise

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Speaker 1: of three point three billion pounds of funding, led to

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Speaker 1: significant progress.

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Speaker 5: We recognize that significant further advances have been achieved through

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Speaker 5: these negotiations. This package, I believe safeguards Northern Ireland's place

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Speaker 5: in the Union and will restore our place within the

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Speaker 5: UK internal market.

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Speaker 1: Donaldson's comments marked the end of the DUP blockade, which

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Speaker 1: dates back to February twenty twenty two, when the party

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Speaker 1: withdrew from the Storm and Assembly arguing that Boris Johnson's

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Speaker 1: Brexit deal undermined Northern Ireland's place in the UK. Members

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Speaker 1: of the party are still likely to oppose the move.

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Speaker 1: France's Prime Minister is promising fresh support for the country's

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Speaker 1: farmers as protesters continue to block motorways around Paris. Bloombergs

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Speaker 1: tewa Adebayo has the details.

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Speaker 3: Tractors are blocking key routes into the French capital as

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Speaker 3: farming unions continue to call for more support in the

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Speaker 3: face of higher production costs and stringent regulations. The protests

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Speaker 3: began more than a week ago. Concessions from the government,

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Speaker 3: including reversing a tax hike on farming fuel, haven't helped

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Speaker 3: to ease farmers concerns. France's Prime Minister, Gabrielle latal is

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Speaker 3: set to announce more plans for the sector in a

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Speaker 3: speech to parliament later, while the country's Interior minister says

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Speaker 3: some fifteen thousand police officers are being deployed to stop

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Speaker 3: tractors entering Paris and other major cities In London tiwa

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Speaker 3: Adebayo Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: In the UK, shop price inflation is at its lowest

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Speaker 1: rate in more than a year as retailers compete for customers.

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Speaker 1: The British Retail Consortium's indexes prices two point nine percent

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Speaker 1: higher year on year. Bloombergs James Wilcock has the details.

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Speaker 6: The crucial Christmas shopping period was weaker than many on

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Speaker 6: the high street had hoped for. Now Britain's retail sector

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Speaker 6: is scrambling for customers by offering heavy discounts. It's positive

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Speaker 6: news for inflation watching economists, but not without a cost.

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Speaker 6: Fashion brands. Super Dry is one of those hit hard

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Speaker 6: by the cost of living crisis and weak sales. Its

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Speaker 6: share price has fallen eighty nine percent in the last year.

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Speaker 6: In London, James Wilcock, Bloombergradier.

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Speaker 1: And Elon Mask says the first human patient has received

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Speaker 1: his Neuralink brain implant. The news comes after the Tesla

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Speaker 1: founder previously predicted surgery in a human head using his

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Speaker 1: device by the end of twenty nineteen. Bloomberg's head Baxter

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Speaker 1: has the story.

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Speaker 7: Mask says this is a significant step forward for the company.

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Speaker 7: He says it aims to one day let humans control

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Speaker 7: computers with their minds. He's posted that the patient is

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Speaker 7: recovering well and that the initial results of the procedure

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Speaker 7: are promising.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 7: The first goal for Neuralink is to help people with

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Speaker 7: traumatic injuries to operate computers with only their thoughts, and

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Speaker 7: to help patients with conditions from cervical spinal cord injury

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Speaker 7: to als. It does have FDA clearance for the trials.

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Speaker 7: Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Well, in a moment, we'll get more on the dilemma

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Speaker 1: facing the US President on responding to that attack on

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Speaker 1: soldiers and Jordan. Plus we're going to bring in more

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Speaker 1: details of Bloomberg's latest analysis of the electoral map here

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Speaker 1: in the UK with an eye on the next general election.

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Speaker 1: But just worth reflecting for a moment on that news

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Speaker 1: out of Elon Musk's Neuralink that they have it received

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Speaker 1: that first implant, the first human receiving the implant and recovering. Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, when the promises first came out that from

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Speaker 1: Elon Musk that he planned on implanting a human with

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Speaker 1: this device, I think there was a fair amount of skepticism,

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Speaker 1: but certainly it is a very interesting development scientifically that

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Speaker 1: that implant has gone ahead. We're saying that a commercial

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Speaker 1: brain implant isn't imminent. There is one of the advisors

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Speaker 1: actually to Neuralink who says there's a danger of over

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Speaker 1: hyping this progress, speaking before this latest announcement from the company.

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Speaker 1: He said, this is Jamie Henderson. He says that he

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Speaker 1: is excited about technology and approved device is still years away,

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Speaker 1: but an interesting scientific development to note this morning as well. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's get more now in our top story, US President

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden weighing his response to the attack that kills

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Speaker 1: three soldiers in Jordan. He's under political pressure, as we've

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Speaker 1: been reporting, to respond forcefully, but officials are looking for

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Speaker 1: a way to avoid sparking direct warfare with Iran. Our

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Speaker 1: head of Middle Eastern North Africa covers Stuart Livingston wilst

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Speaker 1: joins US Now for more. Stuart, good morning to you.

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Speaker 1: What do we know about the options being considered now

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Speaker 1: by the Biden administration.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, good morning. The short answer is none of them

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Speaker 8: are particularly good, at least from the US perspective. So

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Speaker 8: it's clear from a semester politics point of view, he

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Speaker 8: has to do something. You know, he has to respond,

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Speaker 8: and I think also in terms of the US position

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Speaker 8: on the world stage, it's important there is some sort

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Speaker 8: of response. You can't ignore it. On the other hand,

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Speaker 8: he goes into strong and risk escalating what is already

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Speaker 8: a pretty dangerous situation, and I suppose, maybe more cynically,

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Speaker 8: bombs up the oil price in an election year, which

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Speaker 8: is never a great thing to do if you're running

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Speaker 8: for office again. But in terms of sort of the

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Speaker 8: practicalities of what he could do, I think the feeling

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Speaker 8: is the most likely target is probably Iranian assets outside

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Speaker 8: of Iran, in other words, avoid any visible attack on

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Speaker 8: Iranian territory. Now there are plenty of uniformed Iranian military

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Speaker 8: advisors in inverted commas are dotted around the region with

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Speaker 8: the proxies, so you could potentially go after those. Then

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Speaker 8: there's sort of the lower level stuff, or less visible,

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Speaker 8: I should say, which is sort of cyber warfare, collecting

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Speaker 8: intelligence and then starting to fund anti Iranian proxies of

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Speaker 8: its own, in other words, fight the proxies with proxies.

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Speaker 8: But he'll have to do something fairly quickly.

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Speaker 1: I think how difficult a balancing act is this for

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Speaker 1: the President alluded to some of the concerns there, but

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Speaker 1: he's under different forms of pressure from political constituencies in

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Speaker 1: the US but also the response being demanded in the region.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, exactly, And I think it's been a very difficult

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Speaker 8: few months because, as you know, the US has spent

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Speaker 8: several years trying to get out of the Middle East

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Speaker 8: or at least wind down many of its operations. I mean,

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Speaker 8: it still has something like forty seven thousand troops stationed

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Speaker 8: around the region, so it's an awfully big drain on

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Speaker 8: its resources, and it can see what's happening in the Pacific,

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Speaker 8: you know, a build up of tensions there. He's sort

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Speaker 8: of already got a hot war going on in Ukraine.

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Speaker 8: The US has a really quiet, impressive military capability, but

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Speaker 8: it can't necessarily fight in three theater simultaneously. So I think,

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Speaker 8: you know, at least in the medium term, wh the

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Speaker 8: US moved to withdraw from the Middle East or at

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Speaker 8: least wind down in the Middle East, to continue that,

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Speaker 8: that feels inevitable. But in the short term, I think

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Speaker 8: you're probably going to see more resources being put into

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Speaker 8: the region, you know, more certainly more naval assets, and

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Speaker 8: I would suspect the capabilities that come with that, which

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Speaker 8: is broadly aircraft and missiles.

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Speaker 1: Sure, we're following other story from the region this morning too,

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Speaker 1: and this Israeli intelligence report saying that ten percent of

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Speaker 1: staff at the UN Relief and Works Agency and GAZA

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Speaker 1: were members of the militant groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic

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Speaker 1: g HAD. What more can you tell us about that report?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I think it's going to be a

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Speaker 8: while before we get to the bottom of it. The

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Speaker 8: report itself, which I should stress we weren't able to

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Speaker 8: independently verify the claims in it. But yes, as you

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Speaker 8: say it, sort of it suggests that up to ten

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Speaker 8: percent of the group somehow implicated. We know that the

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Speaker 8: Secretary General of the UN is going to has asked,

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Speaker 8: has ordered an urgent review, but as you know, that

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Speaker 8: can take some time. But I've been thinking about the

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Speaker 8: short term impact. It is pretty much the only aid

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Speaker 8: operation going on in Gaza. So if we're in a

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Speaker 8: situation which has already happened where a lot of the

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Speaker 8: major downers have withdrawn funding, where we know there is

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Speaker 8: already issues with getting aid across the border, you know

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Speaker 8: the things don't bode well for the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: Okay Steward Livingston Wallace are head of Middle Eastern North

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Speaker 1: Africa coverage. Thank you very much for joining us this morning.

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Speaker 1: Let's turn to a story from the UK political landscape

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Speaker 1: next and the challenges facing the Labor Party if it

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Speaker 1: wants to win power at the next election. Bloomberg's been

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Speaker 1: analyzing Britain's new electoral map after recent revisions of constituency

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Speaker 1: boundaries to assess the key place that Labor places that

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Speaker 1: Labor needs to win to secure a majority in the

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Speaker 1: next Parliament. Bloomberg's Amen Firehat has been analyzing this data

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Speaker 1: for US and he joins us now aim and talk

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Speaker 1: us through the analysis and the findings in this reporting.

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Speaker 9: Because of these new boundaries, you know, because of shifts

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Speaker 9: and populations every maybe ten years, it's been about fiften

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Speaker 9: years since the last one, they redraw the colliciency map

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Speaker 9: and now we know basically where the most winnable seats

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Speaker 9: are for Labor. That we know kind of what the

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Speaker 9: state of play is. It looks like not not too

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Speaker 9: surprising Scotland, the North, but actually all across the country

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Speaker 9: Labor needs to be able to win seats to try

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Speaker 9: and get into power. That's what we found. This is

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Speaker 9: a Railings and Thrasher analysis and about a national swing

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Speaker 9: of about twelve point seven percent is needed for this,

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Speaker 9: which would be a historic win. Obviously the polls are

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Speaker 9: way ahead of that, but still this is quite a

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Speaker 9: big challenge that's ahead for the Labor Party.

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Speaker 1: So what does it tell us then about how the

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Speaker 1: election will be fought and what the prospects are for Labor.

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Speaker 9: Yes, looking at these seats. So what we did is

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Speaker 9: we basically looked at the one hundred and twenty five

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Speaker 9: most winnable seats for Labor and that's actually the minimum

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Speaker 9: that they need to get a majority of one in Parliament.

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Speaker 9: And looking at those seats, it seems that Kisstarma has

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Speaker 9: to win over you know, much older, richer, whiter, you know,

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Speaker 9: more homeowners than you know, the base that was one

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Speaker 9: in Train nineteen, and it kind of pushes him to

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Speaker 9: maybe put forward policies or campaigning points that attract those

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Speaker 9: people more. That being seld, when I spoke to academics

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Speaker 9: and posters, they said, it's important that although he's delving

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Speaker 9: into out of his comfort zone into new areas, he

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Speaker 9: also doesn't want to maybe alienate his core voters. Obviously,

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Speaker 9: you know that the opinion polls really do put him

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Speaker 9: way way ahead, but that national, big leading opinion poll

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Speaker 9: doesn't always translate to every single little demographic that is

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Speaker 9: the older, you know, the white, or the more rural

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Speaker 9: voters that he needs to win and that this analysis

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Speaker 9: shows he needs to win.

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Speaker 1: This is a fascinating and detailed analysis and you can

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Speaker 1: read the details on Bloomberg dot com and of course

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Speaker 1: on the terminal as well. Aim and I'm wondering in

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Speaker 1: this research, were there any particular findings that surprised you.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I think when I was doing this research, I

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Speaker 9: basically kind of compared, for example, for older people, you know,

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Speaker 9: what does it look like in twenty nineteen, how old

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Speaker 9: was the average voter, What does it look like for

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Speaker 9: their target seats in twenty twenty four, And it seems

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Speaker 9: like in every demographic, whether it's age, ethnicity, you know

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Speaker 9: how many homeowners. Always seem that Kisama now has to

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Speaker 9: target voters who are more representative of the average British person.

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Speaker 9: In the past, Labor does very well in more urban

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Speaker 9: seats with the younger population, with graduates for example. Now

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Speaker 9: they really have to kind of win over the average

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Speaker 9: brit that is in slightly more oral stage still, you know,

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Speaker 9: fairly urban, a little bit older, more homeowners, and definitely

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Speaker 9: not not you know, it's not really the average London

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Speaker 9: seage that Kisdom has to win over. So that was

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Speaker 9: quite interesting that, you know, it's really is quite a

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Speaker 9: departure from the normal comfort zone for Labor.

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Speaker 1: And of course we're talking about this at a time

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Speaker 1: when the Labor Party has an absolutely huge leads in

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Speaker 1: the leads and the polls over twenty points in many

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Speaker 1: of the recent polls as well. Does this analysis this

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Speaker 1: is really going to cause pause for thought in labor headquarters, and.

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Speaker 9: Me, I think it's should. You know, when I spoke

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Speaker 9: to lots of these polses and academics, they said that,

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Speaker 9: of course the lead is huge, but things can change.

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Speaker 9: You know, there is also polling error, and they still

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Speaker 9: say that. You know, if you're take in consideration of

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Speaker 9: polling error, this lead could be cut by maybe ten percent,

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Speaker 9: and then you're not looking at as much of a

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Speaker 9: huge major labor landslide. You're looking at maybe you know,

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Speaker 9: a small labor minority government, sorry, a small labor majority,

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Speaker 9: or maybe even in a minority government in a and

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Speaker 9: a coalition. And they will saying that because of these

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Speaker 9: kind of different deemographics that they have to win over

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Speaker 9: things like immigration. If that becomes a major campaign point

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Speaker 9: like the Conservatives wanted to, that can also swing lots

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Speaker 9: of these seats. So the moment, it does seem like

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Speaker 9: LIBA has a pretty good hold on it. But if

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Speaker 9: your kind of gets a bit better, you know, if

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Speaker 9: things change maybe geopolitically, the polling can change quite quickly

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Speaker 9: and then we will be in braided situation.

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