1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Wisconsin College Republican chairman Nicholas Jacobs 4 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: received one of Elon Musk's one million dollar checks. We 5 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:21,919 Speaker 1: have such a great show for you today, the Atlantics, 6 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: George Conway, stop spies. You talk about Trump's lawlessness and 7 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: how to shore up institutions to protect against it. Then 8 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 1: we'll talk to the economists Simon Ravenovich about how Trump's 9 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: tariffs will actually be bad for the global economy. But 10 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: first the news. 11 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 2: So, Molli, one of the things with moving fast and 12 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 2: break things in government and do process is that you 13 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 2: need to actually go through a process and not just 14 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 2: sending fathers to El Salvadorian megaprisons. 15 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, and here's the headline. It's such a Trump one 16 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: point oh headline, but it's happening. I guess Trump one 17 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: point zero they didn't stop doing due process. So in 18 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: that way, Trump two point zero is an accelerationist version 19 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: of Trump one point zero. But Trump administration accidentally sent 20 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: Maryland father to Salvadorian megaprison and says it can't get 21 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: him back. Whoops. It's a whoops. If you don't care 22 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: about people's lives, it's a complete civil rights nightmare if 23 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: you do. The government argues it no longer has control 24 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 1: over this Maryland dad's fate. He is now in a 25 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 1: Salvadorian prison. This is the same Salvadorian prison that you'll 26 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: remember Christie Nome, famous dog killer. Christie Nome wore a 27 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 1: humongous fifty thousand dollars roulics when giving a talk about 28 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: how she was sending all of these people to this 29 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: scary prison. The man had protected immigration status in the US, 30 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: specifically barring him from being sent back to the country 31 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: for fear of persecution. On Monday, and a filing in 32 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 1: a land court. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement ICE admitted to 33 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: mistakenly sending this man to El Salvador's notoriously brutal Seacot prison. 34 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: This is pretty dark. It's also worth realizing that jd 35 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: Vance Vice President Jade Vance actually lied about it on Twitter. 36 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 2: He said, why is not the turble lot of I 37 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 2: think might be even more I could attempted to dunk 38 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: and got blocked right. 39 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 1: Vice President jd Vance responded to comments asking him about 40 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: the Trump administration's admission that they had sent this Salvadorian 41 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: man with protected legal status to a mega prison. And 42 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 1: then he said, in typical jd Vance fashion, it's gross 43 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:47,839 Speaker 1: to get fired up about gang members getting deported while 44 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: ignoring the citizens they victimized. That's what jd Vance wrote 45 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: on Twitter. He got into a fight with Jon Favreau. 46 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 1: Vance wrote on X and jd Vance you know I 47 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: mean this lying or so elz. 48 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 2: And he had to edit the tweets after Jon Favreau 49 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 2: dunked on him. 50 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 1: It's a heartwarming story. 51 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 2: So Elon held that little rally we mentioned in the 52 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 2: intro where he gave away some checks and he used 53 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 2: about that he has no clue why people hate his guts. 54 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, it is pretty incredible that. Again, look Elon said, 55 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,119 Speaker 1: and this is like the same thing that Trump used 56 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: to say too when he pretended that he worked. So 57 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 1: Elon said, it's costing me more. This is exactly what 58 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: Trump used to say. In fact, it's costing me a 59 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: lot to be in this job. You had Tim Walls 60 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: dancing on stage showing a short on chessless stock dropping. 61 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 1: It's an awful thing for him to do. Again, this 62 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: is like this thing where conservatives can be offensive, but 63 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: then they get very offended. You know, they can dish 64 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: it out, but they cannot take it. 65 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 2: The thing I heard somebody say, is that what we 66 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 2: misread in not the fuck your feelings thing? Is they 67 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 2: meant your feelings by Yes, he says. 68 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: Not only is it I'm not getting paid. I'm definitely 69 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: not stealing money. It would never get away with it. Okay, Well, 70 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: as long as you tell us you're not stealing money. 71 00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: The value of my textless stock is half. So this 72 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 1: is a very expensive job. Okay, quit, I think we've 73 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 1: solved it. 74 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 2: No one will cry if you go. 75 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,839 Speaker 1: Yeah. So we would like to offer Elon Musk a 76 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 1: chance to make more money and quit destroying the federal government. 77 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 1: That's our foray into telling people what to do. Elon, 78 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: perhaps you would like to do that. 79 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 2: Well, Unfortunately, it's not just Elon trying to overhaul the government. 80 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,599 Speaker 2: It's also Trump with executive orders, and one of them 81 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 2: is going to be overhauling the Smithsonian Institute. 82 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: Yes, you'll be shocked to now that this is the 83 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: authoritarian playbook. Right, you start to remake institutions to better 84 00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 1: reflect your quote unquote beliefs. So Trump he wants to 85 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: restore American history through Smithsonian overall. If you don't know 86 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:11,039 Speaker 1: what this is, you don't sort of understand what trump ism. 87 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 1: Here is the order calls for vance along with Vince Haley. 88 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 1: He wants them to remove exhibits that degrade shared American values, 89 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: divide Americans based on race, or promote programs or ideology 90 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: is inconsistent with federal law and policy. You'll remember Trump 91 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: is deeply anti anti racism, which if you're anti anti racism, 92 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: perhaps it's worth wondering what you are for. And again, 93 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: this is just he wants to disassemble museums, libraries. He 94 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: is at war with the culture because they believe in 95 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 1: this idea that politics is downstream from culture. Right, This 96 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: is the Andrew Breidbart thesis that if you can control 97 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: the culture, you can control the politics. If you can 98 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:07,799 Speaker 1: say what is cool, you can influence how people vote, 99 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:11,600 Speaker 1: you can influence what they believe. You can do all 100 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:15,799 Speaker 1: the things that Trump is longs to do. And remember 101 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:20,720 Speaker 1: Trump is first and foremost obsessed with famous people and television, 102 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: et cetera. You know you can see how this works. 103 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: Yes, so one piece of good news is we are 104 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 2: seeing the Dems fighting back in legal ways in a 105 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 2: big way. The Democrats have sued to block trump spid 106 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 2: to control elections. 107 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:38,799 Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is a really scary bill that Trump 108 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: has which is really really, really important and I think 109 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: is worth thinking about. This bill. You know, it's called 110 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: the Save Act. It wants to sort of get in there, 111 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 1: and Democrats are threatening to sue on this executive order. 112 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:58,919 Speaker 1: But this executive order, I want to sort of be 113 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: clear on this is a part of is sort of 114 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: the opening Foray into him wanting to pass the Save Act. 115 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: The Save Act will make it so that you can't 116 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: vote without like a driver's license, and this has always 117 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: been what Republicans want to do. There's a lot of 118 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: other really scary stuff in the Save Act and I 119 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: think it will be a major backslide if it passes. 120 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: But the point here, and what every sort of anti 121 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: authoritarianism expert says to do is to push back on everything, 122 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: and so this is really important. So the Democratic Party 123 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 1: is suing President Trump over sweeping executive orders last week 124 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 1: to wrestle control of elections from the states. This is 125 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 1: very important. We do not want this federal government which 126 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 1: is really now filled with Trump lackeys and cronies to 127 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: control elections for many obvious reasons, but the largest of 128 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: which is they may not be free and fair. And 129 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 1: so this is really important and exactly what should be happening. 130 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: And I'm glad Democrats are doing this, and they need 131 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: to do this with everything. George Conway is a contributor 132 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 1: to The Atlantic. Welcome back, Too Fast Politics, George Conway, NY. 133 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: So let's talk about what's going on right now with 134 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: Donald Trump and the rule of law. So one of 135 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 1: the things that Donald Trump has done really effectively considering 136 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 1: how incompetent he is, is his attack on the institutions. 137 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 3: I'm going to take the issue with that. I mean, 138 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 3: everybody's saying, oh wow, so competent. He's so competent, but now. 139 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 1: He's not so competent. But the law firms. Talk to 140 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 1: me about the. 141 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 3: Law firms, Well, no, I mean, look, it's easy to 142 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,959 Speaker 3: destroy than it is to build, and that's the bottom line. 143 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 3: And it's easy to intimidate when you have cowards and 144 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 3: when you're the president. And he has absolutely no shame. 145 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 3: He's behaving like a mob boss. And we've seen already 146 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 3: his ability to extort things from people, extorted money from ABC, 147 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 3: he almost did from CBS. Did they ultimately settle I 148 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 3: don't know, but he you know, he's he got something 149 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 3: from Jeff Bezos that twenty million dollars for Milania. People 150 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 3: want to pay him off because they want, you know, 151 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 3: they want protection money from him taking action against them, 152 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 3: even if it's illegal, because even if it's illegal, it's 153 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 3: still a pain in the body. It can hurt your business. 154 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 3: I mean, I went to the Kirkinscory was that first 155 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 3: law firm that sued, and I went two weeks ago 156 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 3: to the hearing tro hearing before Judge Howell here in 157 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 3: the District of Columbia, and one of the things that 158 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 3: struck me was that even if they win across the 159 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 3: board a final judgment, a permanent injunction against Trump, it 160 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 3: might not necessarily help them because people are going to 161 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 3: know if you are the general counsel of a big 162 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 3: aerospace company, for example, we have some kind of issue 163 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 3: before the Defense Department, whether it's you're trying to get 164 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 3: a contract, or whether you're trying to get paid on 165 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 3: a contract, or you're trying to work out some issue 166 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 3: on a contract or something else. You're not going to 167 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 3: want to go in there with that law firm, knowing 168 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 3: full well that the people at the Defense Department know 169 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 3: that you're basically persona in nongrade even if the court 170 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 3: say you have to deal with them. So that is 171 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 3: the position that these law firms. And I'm not justifying 172 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 3: behavior you're critical of Paul Weiss. I'm explaining the behavior 173 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 3: that if you are willing to basically put profits over your. 174 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: Country, which a lot of them are, right. 175 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 3: I mean, you know, I mean the head private equity 176 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 3: guy at Paul Weissbrick and Whartney Garrison, which has traditionally 177 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 3: been a very public spirited law firm and had founding 178 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 3: principles based upon that public spirit that is written by 179 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 3: a million who Waltim became a very prominent judge, signed 180 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 3: and Rifkin. They basically put the dollar some ahead of 181 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 3: you know, their commitment to the rule of law, and 182 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 3: you know they were liberals, so they ordered to be 183 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 3: committed to social justice over the years. I don't know 184 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 3: whether I agree with all that, but I think you 185 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 3: know that they should not be intimidated by the government 186 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 3: from engaging in that kind of pro bono activity, and 187 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 3: it should not be cow telling to the government. But 188 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 3: you know, the private equity guy they hot and they 189 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 3: murred over from another firm makes twenty five million dollars 190 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 3: a year doing deals for private equity companies, and those 191 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 3: deals sometimes often require government approval. And so you know, 192 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 3: it basically comes down to whether whether these people want 193 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 3: to have enough money to buy that setting or third 194 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:43,839 Speaker 3: house in the Hantons, or whether or not they care 195 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 3: about the constitution in their country and they want to 196 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 3: set an example and they want to preserve the country 197 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 3: for their children, and they obviously choose the second or 198 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 3: third house in the Hamptons. You know, it's it's disturbing 199 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 3: and appalling and they should be a shamed because it's 200 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 3: not I mean what At some point you have to 201 00:11:59,880 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 3: stand up and take a position for what's right. I mean, 202 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 3: I'm God blessed people who may may make a lot 203 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 3: of money doing anything that's legal, in doing anything, you know, 204 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 3: including the practice of law. I mean, I'm one of 205 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 3: the reasons why I can spout off the way I 206 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 3: have is because I don't need the money. And that 207 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,199 Speaker 3: was the most important thing that I think money can 208 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 3: get you is the ability to say say whatever the 209 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 3: fuck you want. And these people they obviously don't value that. 210 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 3: They don't value the rights and liberties that they have 211 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 3: as Americans in the way that you or I do. 212 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 3: And and I think it's very very tragic and I 213 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 3: ultimately think is self destructive of these law firms to 214 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 3: be doing this, because you can't. You pay off the 215 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 3: mob bus, you pay off the bully with your lunch money, 216 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 3: whatever metaphor you want to use. He'll be back, okay. 217 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 3: And if he's not going to be back for you, 218 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 3: he'll be back for somebody else. He just encourages him, 219 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 3: even if you think you're tricking him by giving him 220 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 3: ice in winter, right, I mean, he's right, that's what 221 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 3: pro bonar hours. They're pro bono hours, right, Okay, So 222 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 3: it's like you're not actually charging anybody for that money, 223 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 3: and you can and the time you know, it's like 224 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 3: you associate it's gonna not she as you know, he 225 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 3: might be a little more he or she might be 226 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 3: a little more generous and putting down the time since 227 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 3: it's actually not being built to a client who may say, 228 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 3: wait a minute, why did you spend nine hours on 229 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 3: researching this? But still it really sends a message to 230 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 3: the world that even the law firms, the law firms 231 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 3: who should be in a position to fight this and 232 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 3: should be morally positioned as well as professionally positioned to 233 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 3: fight this or just throwing in the towel. So why 234 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 3: should any of us fight? And it's really just it's 235 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 3: just I just find it morally reprehensible, and it's you know, 236 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 3: it's it's basically it's extortion. I think it's, you know, 237 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 3: at least the equivalent of the moral equivalent of extortion. 238 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 3: I mean, he's it's it's not clear that he's getting 239 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 3: a real standpoint that you couldn't charge it because he's 240 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 3: not getting a direct personal benefit of anything. But you 241 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 3: know that'll come. And that's that's sort of what happened 242 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 3: in these other these cases that he settled, these bullshit 243 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 3: libel cases. It would be the one where where he 244 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 3: claimed that he was libel because because George Stepanopolis, you know, 245 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 3: gave the impression that he raped a woman one way 246 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 3: instead of raping a woman another way. 247 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm glad you talked about this. 248 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 3: Now. 249 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: I want you to talk a little bit about why 250 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: I think you're right. And I think that's a good point. 251 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: And I do think if we give in to bullies, 252 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 1: what we've seen, I mean, we saw this from the 253 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 1: Trumpet first Trump administration is if you start negotiating with him, 254 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: he just takes and takes and takes. 255 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 3: That's what a narcissist do, right. 256 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: I wonder if you could talk a little bit about 257 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 1: just like Trump. One point out, Trump continues to pretty 258 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: much almost completely lose in coren. 259 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 3: Yes, it's a really remarkable string of losses as a Friday, 260 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 3: according to a fabulation by a wonderful friend and professor 261 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 3: at Georgetown, Steve laddiprof or of law. 262 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, and actually he sent this to me. Steve Vladdock, 263 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 1: who teaches a Georgetown is a brilliant author of the 264 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: Shadow Docket. We love that guy. 265 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 3: No, he's really really terrific, you know, basically, even even 266 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 3: though his philosophical bent is different than mine, it's like 267 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 3: he's always right these days. We agree on everything he says. 268 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 3: There are forty six cases in which judges have blocked 269 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 3: Frump policies. These forty six decisions have come from thirty 270 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 3: nine different federal judges who are appointed by five separate administrations, 271 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 3: obviously both Republican and Democratic in eleven separate district courts 272 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 3: in seven different federal service And what that tells you 273 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 3: is that you have to be doing first of all, 274 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 3: to get that number of decisions against you that quickly, 275 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 3: you have to be doing something wall and to get that. No, no, 276 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 3: this isn't one of these situations where Stephen Miller so 277 00:15:55,880 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 3: felicitously put it on execute that these are all well 278 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 3: Marxist judges trying to interfere with the you know, with 279 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 3: the president's prerogatives. While Stephen Miller is an absolute lunatic 280 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 3: and these aren't Marxist judges. These are I mean. One 281 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 3: of the first decisions was rendered by a judge in 282 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 3: Washington named Governor, who was a Reagan appointed and he 283 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 3: said he couldn't believe basically that the Justice Department was 284 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 3: appearing before him. They looked like day two of the administrations, 285 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 3: give or take a day, that they were making this 286 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 3: argument that completely perverted the text of fourteenth Amendment to 287 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 3: argue that people who were born in the United States 288 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 3: aren't necessarily citizens, even though the Constitution says that people 289 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 3: who are born all persons born in the United States 290 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 3: or citizens thereof what Trump is doing is based of 291 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 3: pradition wholesale, ignoring laws that he doesn't like, whether they 292 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 3: be laws about what spending has to be engaged in, 293 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 3: which are you know, these are these these laws that 294 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 3: appropriate money generally do not say if the president so desire, 295 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 3: they say the presidents shall spend money in words in 296 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 3: the substance. And then he's violating the Constitution by having 297 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,360 Speaker 3: Elon Musk. Essentially, I mean that that bilates the Constitution 298 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:14,360 Speaker 3: because he's essentially using his executive orders to to usurfu 299 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 3: the power of Congress and to pass laws what he 300 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:21,719 Speaker 3: considers to be laws, overturning will of Congress and the statutes. 301 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 3: But he's also for example, he's pointed Elon Musk to 302 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 3: basically act as a as something of a czar for 303 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 3: the government. And to do that, the pointance laws requires 304 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 3: at a minimum, requires that his position be created by Congress, 305 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 3: which it was not. And it further requires, given the 306 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 3: breath of his power, it requires that he be set 307 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 3: confirmed to the office that the that the Congress should 308 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 3: have to have created. And it's you know, illegal on 309 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 3: multiple levels and has now been so held by courts, 310 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 3: and he has shown absolute disrespect for the law. He 311 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 3: doesn't care what the law says, and their compliance with 312 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 3: these court orders has been kind of shoddy, and they're 313 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 3: just playing games with the courts of a fundamental in 314 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 3: this whole bit with the Alien Enemies Act and the Venezuelans. 315 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 3: They ship them on and they refuse to basically turn 316 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,920 Speaker 3: the planes around. You know, that's that's illegal. 317 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 1: So what you're saying here is constitutional crisis discuss. 318 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:25,400 Speaker 3: Well, we are in a constitutional crisis. We are been 319 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 3: in a I think we're in the early stages of it, 320 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 3: because it's not going away anytime soon. You know, it's 321 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 3: like stages of cancer. I mean, we are in stage 322 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 3: four of trump Ism. In terms of the final constitutional crisis, 323 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 3: we are in stage one or two at least of that. 324 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 3: And I think the further stages are going to involve 325 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 3: him absolutely flat out refusing to obey court orders in 326 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:56,199 Speaker 3: certain in certain cases, and then ultimately chaos because I 327 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,439 Speaker 3: think that he's not going to be able to control 328 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 3: the public reaction to that, and I think he's going 329 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 3: to try. I think he's going to issue orders that 330 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 3: will be illegal, that some people will not obey and 331 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 3: others will obey, and and you know, at the same time, 332 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 3: these courts are going to be issuing these orders, whether 333 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 3: or not they be enforced against Trump. I think we 334 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 3: are headed toward legal and political chaos, and that's very, 335 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 3: very tragic for the country, both politically and economically and morally. 336 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 3: And it's it's just not I mean, it's something where 337 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 3: you know, I've telled telling my middle daughter who's going 338 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 3: into twelfth grade next year, that she should think about 339 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 3: studying abroad for the next few years. I don't, you know, 340 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 3: I don't have a lot of confidence that this is 341 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 3: going to get resolved quickly and in a manner that's 342 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,880 Speaker 3: really sets us back to normality. 343 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: So let's talk a little bit about how we sort 344 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 1: of keep going through this. We have the courts are 345 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 1: saying no to trump Ism as a response, instead of 346 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: what happened in from one point out where you had 347 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 1: a few normal people still in the administration, so they 348 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 1: would say things like, you know, we don't like it, 349 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: but we're going to listen to the courts. This time, 350 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 1: you have JD. Van saying, you know, you have both 351 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,919 Speaker 1: Jadvans and Elon mush saying that you know. 352 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 3: And don't forget Stephen Miller, because I believe that Stephen 353 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 3: Miller is probably as powerful as Muskus in this administration, 354 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 3: He's just not as high profile. I think he is 355 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 3: the architect of a lot of what's going on because 356 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,920 Speaker 3: nobody else. I mean, I don't think Vance has the 357 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 3: internal political power, and I don't think Musk is too 358 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:41,399 Speaker 3: scattershot and possibly intoxicated to really exercise this kind of 359 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:45,360 Speaker 3: anything other than arbitrary nihilistic actions, you know. And I think, 360 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 3: so those are the three I think. And Miller is 361 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 3: just obviously illning. I mean, I don't know if you've 362 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 3: seen some of his TV heads lately where he's gonna 363 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 3: sweaming at the television and whole rant the other day 364 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 3: about Marxist judges. But he's he's not a well man, 365 00:20:59,080 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 3: but he's very very. 366 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:04,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, he is very smart, but he's not well. So 367 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: let's just sort of game this out. We have judges 368 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 1: who are being targeted, federal judges. It feels like we're 369 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: heading somewhere bad. Here there are still normal Republicans in 370 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 1: the Senate. If a critical mask got together, they could 371 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 1: protect these judges. I mean, are they going to try 372 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: to impeach federal judges? I mean, that's what the right wants. 373 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,920 Speaker 3: I think the House may very well try to do that, 374 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 3: and I think on a party line vote requires a 375 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,959 Speaker 3: simple majority, they probably can do it, although their majority 376 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,639 Speaker 3: has grow center and may even grow even more center 377 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 3: in the next forty eight hours three thos, so we'll see. 378 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 3: I don't think there's any chance at all of conviction 379 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 3: in the Senate, but the harassment of these judges is 380 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 3: something not to be taken light. It can cost these 381 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 3: judges money to have to retain warriors, and you have 382 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 3: to if you are the subject of an impeachment inquiry, 383 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 3: you probably should retain a lawyer. And I know some 384 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,879 Speaker 3: efforts to make sure that or at least some intent 385 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 3: among some people to try to make sure that judges 386 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,160 Speaker 3: have the resources to defend themselves. They may be subject 387 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 3: to subpoenas and whatnot, And a truly scary thing about 388 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 3: that would be is if it intimidates judges into not 389 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 3: doing their jobs. But so far, I have to say 390 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 3: that judges have shown remarkable courage. Their commitment to the 391 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 3: rule of law has been just absolutely remarkable, including Republican judges, 392 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 3: and we've seen the Chief Justice of the United States 393 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,680 Speaker 3: speak out against bogus and patient efforts and we saw 394 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 3: a very conservative a friend of mine, Eleventh Circuit Judge 395 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 3: William Pryor, has spoken out against impeachment of judges for 396 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,119 Speaker 3: their decisions. He was on Chunks shortlist in twenty seventeen. 397 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 3: And I highly admire the way the federal judiciary is 398 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,880 Speaker 3: hanging together to protect the constitution system of government. 399 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll say it's really important when you think about 400 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 1: the way to protect the rule of law and norms 401 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 1: and institution to what is in your mind the way 402 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 1: to do it. 403 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 3: Well, I think, you know, I think this litigation is 404 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 3: obviously a very important art of what has to happen 405 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 3: to show the world, to show the country that Trump 406 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 3: is tearing up statutes in the Constitution and behaving them 407 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 3: lawfully and really destroying this our system of government. Regardless 408 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,119 Speaker 3: of whether you think some of the objects that he 409 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 3: is reporting to try to attain are good or bad, 410 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 3: the fact of the matter is he's destroying the system 411 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 3: by which we peacefully resolve our differences and by which 412 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 3: we have lived for two hundred plus years, give or take. 413 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,399 Speaker 3: Set the Civil War aside, and this is the reason 414 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 3: why we have had, you know, one of the most 415 00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 3: successful economies, one of the most successful societies in history 416 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 3: and the reason why, ironically people want to come to 417 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 3: the United States and want how people want to leave 418 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 3: the United States or see scientists. Seventy five percent of 419 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 3: scientists polled by Nature magazine say they're thinking of leaving 420 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:12,200 Speaker 3: the country. 421 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:16,120 Speaker 1: One last question for you with the disappearing grad students. 422 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,679 Speaker 1: What should the disappearing grad students be doing if you 423 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:19,679 Speaker 1: want to stay safe? 424 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 3: If you want to stay safe. I hate to say this, 425 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,679 Speaker 3: but one advice that they had been given is to 426 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,919 Speaker 3: keep their mental shut. And it's the whole purpose of 427 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 3: what Trump is trying to do. And it's a real 428 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 3: problem the Trump administration is it is basically punishing people 429 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 3: for speech. This woman who has taking off the street, 430 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 3: she did all she did, write it off it. I mean, 431 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,639 Speaker 3: I'd agree with all its particulars. It was about obviously 432 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,239 Speaker 3: about the situation in gazzled. But it doesn't matter what 433 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 3: it wasn't in promotion, He can't. It doesn't matter because 434 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:50,199 Speaker 3: what's it going to be next? Is it going to 435 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 3: be somebody who says that Donald Trump is violating the 436 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 3: Constitution right? 437 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: Absolutely no question. 438 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 3: That person might be deemed by Macro Aruvio to be 439 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 3: raising a ruckus and their visa would reportedly be revoked, 440 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 3: even though even you know, and and the whole thing 441 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 3: that that what they're doing to lawful permanent residence people 442 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 3: be in cars, they had no power to do that 443 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,679 Speaker 3: without going to an immigration for it would be very 444 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 3: very unnerving time to be a foreign student in the 445 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:23,160 Speaker 3: United States. And I could not advise them that they're safe. 446 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 3: You know, they can fight, they can hire lawyers. There 447 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 3: are the aco you will defend them, others will defend them. 448 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,400 Speaker 3: But once they sort of you know, they're gonna they're 449 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 3: doing unlawful things. What are you sending people to Louisiana 450 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 3: on prisons there? Frankly without want the government is behaving lawles. 451 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:44,360 Speaker 1: Thank you, George Conway, thank you. Simon Rabinovich is the 452 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: US economics editor of The Economist. Welcome to Fast Politics, Simon. 453 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 3: It would be good to be here. Thank you. 454 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 1: Great to have you so. April second, April first is 455 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: April Fool's Day. April well second is liberation Day. We're 456 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: going to be liberated from our money. 457 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 4: Discuss that's right, Americans who've been sort of living, you know, 458 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 4: shackled by the horrors of global trade for the last century, 459 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 4: which of course also was a century in which America 460 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 4: became the world's most prosperous economy ever in history. Will 461 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,720 Speaker 4: finally be freed Tomorrow at three pm or so in 462 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,119 Speaker 4: the Rose Garden, we'll find out just exactly what that 463 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 4: liberation entails. 464 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 1: One of the really strange things about Trump's first administration 465 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 1: was he actually did well with tariffs. He didn't do 466 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 1: well with a lot of things COVID, you know, civil rights, 467 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:44,480 Speaker 1: but he actually really used tariffs in an effective way, 468 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 1: in such an effective way that Biden World continued a 469 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: lot of these tariffs. Sort of explain to us what 470 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 1: he did with tariffs and how they worked for him, 471 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 1: and also how that has now given him brainworms about tariffs. 472 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,119 Speaker 4: I guess I would start by some and what disputing 473 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,199 Speaker 4: the premise that he did do well with tariffs, I 474 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:08,160 Speaker 4: would say in this first term that he didn't massively 475 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 4: screw things up with tariffs, which is different. So, first 476 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 4: of all, the overall tariff level in his first ministration 477 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 4: it went up, but if you look at kind of 478 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 4: America's overall effective tariff rate, it kind of went from 479 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:25,200 Speaker 4: two percent to a little over three percent. So we're 480 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 4: not talking about a massive, massive change, and what did 481 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 4: that actually achieve for America. Trump's target number one was 482 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,760 Speaker 4: the persistent trade deficit that did not narrow in his 483 00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 4: first term, so there was no progress made on what 484 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 4: really was his goal of balancing America's trade relationship. There 485 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 4: was a trade deal with China, which China did not 486 00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 4: actually abide by because. 487 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 1: Because they don't yes. 488 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 4: And it was also pie in the sky from the outset. 489 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,400 Speaker 4: You know, anybody who was looking at it said there's 490 00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 4: no way that they could possibly hit these purchase levels. 491 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 4: They basically sold Trump a bill of goods. He bought it, 492 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,679 Speaker 4: sold it as a victory, and it was never anything 493 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 4: that could possibly be actually delivered. So, you know, so 494 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 4: he didn't close the deficit, he didn't actually get an 495 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 4: effective trade deal with with China. He didn't bring manufacturing 496 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,199 Speaker 4: back to America, and fact studies show that, for example, 497 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,160 Speaker 4: his tariffs on the steel sector were very bad for 498 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 4: the thousands and thousands of companies downstream from steel producers 499 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,199 Speaker 4: who saw their input costs rise. So you know, it 500 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,360 Speaker 4: was not good for US manufacturing. But you are right 501 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 4: that the Biden administration did not reverse what he did 502 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,440 Speaker 4: specifically did not reverse what he did on China. They 503 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 4: did actually partially reverse the steel tariffs because those were really, 504 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 4: really quite harmful, the China tariffs. It's complicated because you 505 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 4: then get beyond pure economic considerations into national security issues, 506 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:54,040 Speaker 4: into this kind of very hawkish American turn towards China. 507 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 4: And so the tariffs were kept in place. They didn't 508 00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,560 Speaker 4: hurt the economy as much as they might have because 509 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,480 Speaker 4: China moved so much of its production outside of its 510 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 4: own country to Vietnam and Malaysia and Bangladesh, et cetera. 511 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 4: Met Mexico of course, and so Americans continued to get 512 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 4: efficiently cheap Chinese goods from other countries, and so you 513 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 4: didn't see the big economic downsides. So that's kind of 514 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 4: Trump number one, Trump number two. 515 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 1: And also, can we just pause for a second and 516 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,560 Speaker 1: just add that this came on the heels of a 517 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 1: massive tax cut. 518 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 4: You're absolutely right. 519 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 1: So you juice the economy and then you pull back 520 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 1: a little bit. 521 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 4: Right, So Trump number one, you're absolutely right. The broader 522 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 4: context is very different. So you've got the big tax 523 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 4: cut package, the TCGA, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 524 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 4: of twenty seventeen that helped to juice the economy. You 525 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 4: also had an economy that was, you know, basically five 526 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 4: years into its big recovery after the global financial crisis, 527 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 4: a recovery that of course was kickstarted under Barack Obama, 528 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,040 Speaker 4: and Trump inherited him from that. So you've got an 529 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 4: economy that was on the up, that was juiced by 530 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 4: tax cuts, and that, you know, if you look at it, 531 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 4: and aggregate had a relatively minimal drag from tariffs because 532 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 4: it simply did not add up to all that much. 533 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 4: And so then you're right, you get into Trump too, 534 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 4: and he looks back at it and says, hey, I 535 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,240 Speaker 4: did tariffs and Trump number one, and economists said they 536 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 4: were going to be really bad, and lo and behold, 537 00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:28,640 Speaker 4: they weren't bad. The economy prospered. So this time around, 538 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 4: I'm going to go even bigger. And anybody who's warning 539 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 4: of problems, of doom, of anything, they're just doomsayers. They 540 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 4: don't get it. They don't see the transformation that I'm 541 00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:39,800 Speaker 4: going to bring about. 542 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:45,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, not great. So Simon explained to us, now where 543 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 1: we are with the tariffs, because there's so much on again, 544 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 1: off again, it's hard to keep track. 545 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 4: We certainly have seen that in the case of the 546 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,480 Speaker 4: tariffs on Canada and Mexico, you know, America's two biggest 547 00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 4: trading partners, that twice they were delayed and twice they 548 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 4: were sort of onwhat reduced. But in the end, we 549 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 4: do have tariffs that have been put into place on 550 00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 4: effectively the majority of the trade with both Canada and Mexico, 551 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 4: and companies are kind of scrambling around trying to figure 552 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 4: out how to adjust. We also have big tariffs that 553 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 4: have been put in place on steel. We've had tariffs 554 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 4: that have been increased rapidly on China. So you know, 555 00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 4: in the space of the first two months plus of 556 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 4: his current administration, he's done more in terms of tariffs 557 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 4: on China than he did in the entirety of his 558 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 4: first term. And then tomorrow we're going to get Liberation Day, 559 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,520 Speaker 4: and the exact details are unclear and probably will be. 560 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 1: And they will be unclear until they're more unclear. 561 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 4: Yes, gone, they'll be unclear until the moment that Trump 562 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 4: basically announces them in the Rose Garden. But we do 563 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 4: know that there's kind of two competing ideas. One is 564 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 4: that he does a big universal tariff ten or twenty 565 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 4: percent on everybody on all imports into America, and the 566 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 4: other is that he does something that's a little bit 567 00:31:56,920 --> 00:32:00,560 Speaker 4: more targeted reciprocal, as they say, where they look at 568 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 4: what other countries are doing to America, what their tariff 569 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 4: levels are, what their non tariff barriers are, and try 570 00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 4: to cook up a number that matches. Supposedly, you know 571 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 4: what American exporters face when they try to sell to 572 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 4: other countries around the world. Whatever it is, it's clear 573 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,400 Speaker 4: that there are going to be a lot more tariffs 574 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,280 Speaker 4: announced tomorrow, and it's also clear that it's not going 575 00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 4: to be the end of the story that he wants 576 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 4: to do more in the way of sectoral tariffs, so 577 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:31,920 Speaker 4: tariffs on products like semiconductors and lumber and pharmaceuticals, and 578 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 4: probably it's also likely that we'll see retaliation from some 579 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 4: countries that will beget yet more escalation from America. 580 00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:47,400 Speaker 1: So China, Japan, South Korea, countries that never get together 581 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 1: and do things have gotten involved in. It's sort of 582 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 1: NATO for tariffs in China right talk to us about that. 583 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 4: So China, Japan, and South Korea have said that they're 584 00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 4: going to come up with some kind of joint response 585 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:00,840 Speaker 4: to whatever or Trump does. 586 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,960 Speaker 1: Right, This is huge, right because China does not play 587 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:04,800 Speaker 1: well with others. 588 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 4: It goes back and forth, right, so you know, it 589 00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:12,080 Speaker 4: will have you know, specific countries in its doghouse, and 590 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 4: Japan and South Korea have been there before. And then 591 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 4: it also will, you know, at times to sort of 592 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 4: try to make nice and try to say that it's 593 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 4: kind of the grown up in the room and push 594 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 4: for Pan Asian trade deals. So it is a really 595 00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:29,040 Speaker 4: really interesting response. I wouldn't expect that it would be 596 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,680 Speaker 4: overly substantive in the sense of those three countries coming 597 00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,400 Speaker 4: into a very tight trading arrangement. They still have a 598 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 4: lot of baggage and a lot of friction. But for 599 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 4: the time being, it's sending a clear message to America 600 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 4: that if you think you can pick fights individually with 601 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 4: lots of countries, those countries can actually turn around cooperate 602 00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,840 Speaker 4: band together. And therefore, in fact, what the Trump administration 603 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,160 Speaker 4: believes that it has, which is bilateral leverage, if it's 604 00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 4: on a multilateral basis, that leverage begins to dissipate. It's 605 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,160 Speaker 4: tough enough going up against China in a fight, but 606 00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,840 Speaker 4: if you're up against China and Japan and South Korea, 607 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,280 Speaker 4: et cetera. You know, it does get a lot harder. 608 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 4: America is the world's biggest economy, but it's one fifth 609 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,840 Speaker 4: of you know, global GDP. It's not the majority of 610 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:18,240 Speaker 4: global GDP. So you know, if it's America alone against 611 00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,479 Speaker 4: the rest of the world, that's not a great fight 612 00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,640 Speaker 4: to have. So you know that it's a really interesting dynamic. 613 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,240 Speaker 4: More more broadly, lots of countries are looking at ways 614 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,640 Speaker 4: that they can you know, form stronger trade partnerships deep 615 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,760 Speaker 4: in their supply chains and kind of work out trading 616 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:37,759 Speaker 4: arrangements that don't necessarily involve America. 617 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:41,120 Speaker 1: Right for sure. So there's another wrinkle to this, which 618 00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:45,600 Speaker 1: Congress had more power on tariffs and they signed it 619 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:51,680 Speaker 1: away with the CR. So Continuing Resolution had to stop 620 00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:56,600 Speaker 1: the government from defaulting on, you know and shutting down. 621 00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:01,480 Speaker 1: Trump sort of snuck in the CR more power for tariffs. 622 00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,400 Speaker 1: Talk to us about that, because that sets the stage 623 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,759 Speaker 1: for this fuck or a. In another way, the. 624 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 4: Sieur itself is not I would say over the significant 625 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 4: in this. I think the bigger issue is that just 626 00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:17,799 Speaker 4: over the decades, Congress has signed away its authority over 627 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,520 Speaker 4: tariffs to the White House. They've seeded their authority. So 628 00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 4: there's been a series of acts that have been passed 629 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:28,720 Speaker 4: that although theoretically Congress is responsible for regulating foreign trade, 630 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,319 Speaker 4: in fact the White House has a great degree of 631 00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:36,320 Speaker 4: discretion over what it wants to do with raising tariffs. 632 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 4: So you know, you can go back to the nineteen 633 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:42,959 Speaker 4: seventies to the International Economic Emergency Protection Act IIPA, which 634 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 4: is what the Trump administration has used as its justification 635 00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 4: for its tariffs so far. You also, in the American 636 00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,399 Speaker 4: Trade Act have sections two thirty two and three ZHO one, 637 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 4: which allow the White House to conduct, you know, investigations 638 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,719 Speaker 4: that then allow the president to enforce tariffs, which is 639 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,960 Speaker 4: what Trump used as the justification for tariffs in his 640 00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 4: first administration. So you know, over the decades, Congress has 641 00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 4: has vested a lot of authority over tariffs in the 642 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,440 Speaker 4: White House. At the moment, you know, there's simply is 643 00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,400 Speaker 4: you know, no willingness, no spine to bring that back. 644 00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:14,640 Speaker 3: You know. 645 00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 4: I think one of the interesting dynamics that we might 646 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:21,560 Speaker 4: see actually is that when we get the push to 647 00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:25,360 Speaker 4: renew the TCGA later on this year, plus whatever extra 648 00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,560 Speaker 4: tax cuts Trump wants to make, you may well actually 649 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:32,239 Speaker 4: have Congress legislating signing some of these terriffs into law, 650 00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:34,840 Speaker 4: because in order to use them as a way to 651 00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 4: basically pay for some of the tax cuts, it can't 652 00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,600 Speaker 4: just be done something that's done unilaterally by the White House. 653 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 4: It's actually got to be passed by Congress. So we 654 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,720 Speaker 4: could actually see a situation where Trump takes the lead 655 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,320 Speaker 4: and implementing these tariffs, but then ultimately actually Congress begins 656 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,400 Speaker 4: to legislate them later on this year as part of 657 00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:54,480 Speaker 4: the reconciliation. 658 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:59,600 Speaker 1: The markets don't love tariffs. They don't love and uncertainty. 659 00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:05,319 Speaker 1: We've certainly seen some investment banks change their forecasts for 660 00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:10,440 Speaker 1: the quarter, for the year, writing up some possibility, you know, 661 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,440 Speaker 1: I saw I think Goldman increased to a thirty thirty 662 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,680 Speaker 1: five percent possibility for you know, some kind of contraction. 663 00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:22,160 Speaker 1: What are the broader implications of these haphazard tariffs. 664 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 4: So short term? You know, again, you're absolutely right that 665 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,600 Speaker 4: you know, market does not like tariffs. We've we've seen 666 00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 4: the stock market has been weak, it's basically erased all 667 00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:34,160 Speaker 4: of its post election gains. When you know, investors have 668 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,200 Speaker 4: been much more optimistic about you know, trumpy and deregulation 669 00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,759 Speaker 4: and how that might just growth, et cetera. Even now, 670 00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:41,400 Speaker 4: in the in the space of kind of two months, 671 00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,640 Speaker 4: had all of that wiped out, you know, trillions of 672 00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:47,359 Speaker 4: dollars of capital gains gone investment banks and not just 673 00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:51,319 Speaker 4: investment banks. You know, economists and researchers in general have 674 00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,200 Speaker 4: been marking down their short term forecasts for the US economy. 675 00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,040 Speaker 4: You know, the belief is that there's just so much 676 00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,960 Speaker 4: uncertainty right now. It's you know, we've seen that weighing 677 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,839 Speaker 4: quite dramatically on consumer sentiment. Consumers aren't spending money, are 678 00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:07,120 Speaker 4: much more worried about about economic prospects and are holding back. 679 00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,399 Speaker 4: And equally, a lot of businesses are you know, they're 680 00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:11,879 Speaker 4: just in limbo right now. They don't quite know what 681 00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,160 Speaker 4: to do because they don't know what policy is going 682 00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,880 Speaker 4: to look like tomorrow, much less next month. That's a negative, 683 00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:19,960 Speaker 4: you know, a big negative for the short term. It's 684 00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,920 Speaker 4: not just tariffs. You know, also the Elon musk Doge 685 00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,520 Speaker 4: cutbacks in the civil service and what that might mean 686 00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:30,200 Speaker 4: for kind of the broader employment picture and the delivery 687 00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:33,800 Speaker 4: of public services. That's a that's also a big concern. 688 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,200 Speaker 4: The immigration crackdown and how that goes and what that 689 00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 4: means for the labor market. That's another concern as well. 690 00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:43,480 Speaker 4: So all those things are kind of feeding into short 691 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:47,120 Speaker 4: term concern about the state of the economy in twenty 692 00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:52,040 Speaker 4: twenty five and therefore increased possibilities of a recession. And 693 00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,920 Speaker 4: you know, that's still not the kind of the dominant assumption, 694 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,040 Speaker 4: as you said, you know, Goldman is talking about thirty 695 00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,279 Speaker 4: or thirty five percent, but that's you know, that's up 696 00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,400 Speaker 4: dramatically from a couple months ago. And and you know, 697 00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:06,520 Speaker 4: as many economists would say, Trump inherited an incredibly strong economy. 698 00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,720 Speaker 4: At the tail end of the Biden administration, growth meantum 699 00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,160 Speaker 4: was was robust, inflation was coming down. If you just 700 00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,719 Speaker 4: basically sat on those hands and not done much of anything, 701 00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,040 Speaker 4: you know, growth would have slowed a little bit, but 702 00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:20,880 Speaker 4: we would not be talking about the possibility of recession. So, 703 00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,560 Speaker 4: you know, just looking at the short term this is 704 00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,880 Speaker 4: not a good picture. Longer term, this is also not 705 00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,040 Speaker 4: good for the economy. 706 00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,000 Speaker 1: It's nice that is it shorter term and then longer 707 00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:33,560 Speaker 1: term go on. 708 00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,480 Speaker 4: I mean, this is also not good because you've got 709 00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:40,560 Speaker 4: an economy that is you know, optimized for global production 710 00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:44,480 Speaker 4: where you have you know, innovation and investment that is 711 00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:48,560 Speaker 4: pouring into kind of the highest value added segments of 712 00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:50,880 Speaker 4: the economy that you can imagine. You think about the 713 00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,560 Speaker 4: last five years, and you know, in the business world 714 00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:55,840 Speaker 4: and now kind of in the broader world. You know, 715 00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:57,600 Speaker 4: the biggest thing that people have been talking about is 716 00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,439 Speaker 4: the rise of AI. Well, America is the world leader 717 00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:02,800 Speaker 4: in AI because you know, it's been able to attract 718 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,960 Speaker 4: the world's best researchers and it's got the world's best 719 00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:08,919 Speaker 4: you know comp side labs and companies that are really 720 00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:11,800 Speaker 4: kind of pushing the envelope. And the reason that happens 721 00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:14,040 Speaker 4: is that you have an economy that's able to allocate 722 00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:18,600 Speaker 4: talent and resources and money to cutting edge research and innovation. 723 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:20,799 Speaker 4: What Trump is trying to do is to try to 724 00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:26,520 Speaker 4: re energize manufacturing in America, which it sounds good, sounds 725 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:30,640 Speaker 4: like something that's worthy and notable. You have JD Vance 726 00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:33,680 Speaker 4: coming out and saying a million cheap toaster ovens from 727 00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:35,759 Speaker 4: around the world are not worth it if it comes 728 00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:39,000 Speaker 4: at the cost of one single manufacturing job. But what 729 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:42,200 Speaker 4: they're actually talking about therefore with tariffs is you know, 730 00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:46,880 Speaker 4: bringing back manufacturing of things like toaster ovens, erecting protective 731 00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:48,920 Speaker 4: tariff barriers that are not going to be good for 732 00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,600 Speaker 4: the competitiveness of the US economy, are not going to 733 00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,479 Speaker 4: be good for innovation, and ultimately are going to bring 734 00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:59,480 Speaker 4: resources and talent and money away from the most competitive, 735 00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:03,000 Speaker 4: most advance sectors and putting them towards things that that 736 00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:07,000 Speaker 4: really you know, America, an economy as wealthy and developed 737 00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:09,920 Speaker 4: as America, is not in the business of producing. So 738 00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:13,400 Speaker 4: it's a really really retrograde step. Once you put the 739 00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,200 Speaker 4: tariffs in place, they're really really hard to get rid of. 740 00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:20,399 Speaker 1: Why that's interesting, I haven't I mean, I know it's true, 741 00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:21,680 Speaker 1: but I don't understand why. 742 00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:23,440 Speaker 4: So I mean, I guess think about it this way. 743 00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,960 Speaker 4: If you think about the auto sector, You've got some 744 00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:30,640 Speaker 4: American car companies that are good and that produce good vehicles, 745 00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:36,120 Speaker 4: but that rely on inputs that come from Mexico, Canada, China, 746 00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:38,960 Speaker 4: et cetera. And ultimately they're trying to produce a car 747 00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,719 Speaker 4: that is competitive against the rest of the world because 748 00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:43,319 Speaker 4: the rest of the world can send their cars to 749 00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:46,480 Speaker 4: America as well. It pushes the Big Three in Detroit 750 00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,160 Speaker 4: and all of the up and coming ev companies to 751 00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,759 Speaker 4: make better and better cars. Well, as soon as you 752 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,520 Speaker 4: put tariffs in place, especially you know the big tirists 753 00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:56,480 Speaker 4: they've put in place on the auto sector of twenty 754 00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,680 Speaker 4: five percent American car companies. Car companies based in America 755 00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,880 Speaker 4: aren't You're not going to have to compete against cars 756 00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,680 Speaker 4: that are being shipped from Japan, or Germany or Canada 757 00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,080 Speaker 4: or you know, or god forbid, China. They're going to 758 00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:10,600 Speaker 4: be protected in their own little sandbox here, which means 759 00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,680 Speaker 4: that prices will go up for American consumers and those 760 00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,799 Speaker 4: car companies no longer will need to deal with kind 761 00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:20,200 Speaker 4: of the specter of global competition. So you'll get higher 762 00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:23,719 Speaker 4: priced cars that are actually going to be an inferior product. 763 00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,920 Speaker 4: And you know what happens after kind of a decade 764 00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:30,120 Speaker 4: of that kind of production. If you're GM or four 765 00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:33,600 Speaker 4: and you're kind of thriving behind this tariff wall, and 766 00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,319 Speaker 4: you know that your product is less good and more 767 00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,640 Speaker 4: expensive than global cars, you will have a very very 768 00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,440 Speaker 4: strong lobby in place saying do not get rid of 769 00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,480 Speaker 4: these tariffs, because if you do, you really are going 770 00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:49,080 Speaker 4: to kill manufacturing jobs because they're now dependent on this 771 00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:53,560 Speaker 4: protection being in place, so you effectively create this consumer 772 00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:57,600 Speaker 4: subsidy for concentrated manufacturing. You know, that's just not a 773 00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,719 Speaker 4: healthy thing for the economy. It's why for a century 774 00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:04,320 Speaker 4: the focus of global trade negotiations was on kind of 775 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:08,960 Speaker 4: mutual disarmament. You lower your tariffs, we lower ours. This 776 00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,359 Speaker 4: is good for our companies, good for our consumers, good 777 00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:12,200 Speaker 4: for our economy. 778 00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:15,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you so much, Simon. 779 00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:22,600 Speaker 3: Thank you, Molly. I appreciate it more perfectly, Jesse Cannon. 780 00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,799 Speaker 2: So, Molly, I don't be de laughed because there is 781 00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,320 Speaker 2: a victim of this crib. But one of the most 782 00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:34,279 Speaker 2: insane things about once you start doing authoritarian shit, it 783 00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,799 Speaker 2: gets real dumb, real fast. And we have a Republican 784 00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,240 Speaker 2: calling ice on a GOP rivals farm. 785 00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:43,680 Speaker 1: Yes, it is shocking to know that these people are 786 00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:48,080 Speaker 1: also very importantly hypocrites. So an Idaho Republican has accused 787 00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:50,600 Speaker 1: a GOP rival of harassment and an op ed after 788 00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:54,720 Speaker 1: he reported her farm to ICE. In January, Ryan Spoon, 789 00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:58,279 Speaker 1: vice chairf's the Republican Party of Ada County, publicly called 790 00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:03,480 Speaker 1: for immigration rates on state Representative Stephanie mckinlan's farm, accusing 791 00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:07,880 Speaker 1: her of employing undocumented immigrants. I'm curious what would happen 792 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,920 Speaker 1: if you did that at mar A Lago. This, my friends, 793 00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:16,319 Speaker 1: is what will be one of the many moments of 794 00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:21,440 Speaker 1: fuckery in an administration and a Republican party deeply in 795 00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:27,080 Speaker 1: trench in fuckery. That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. 796 00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:33,279 Speaker 1: Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear 797 00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:37,960 Speaker 1: the best minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. 798 00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,040 Speaker 1: If you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a 799 00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:45,120 Speaker 1: friend and keep the conversation going. Thanks for listening.