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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: This is your UFC Vegas fifty three betting preview. Brendan Glassheen,

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Speaker 3: joined as always by Action Network senior writer Sean Zarillo,

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Speaker 3: also former professional MMA fighter and MMA analyst Billy Ward.

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Speaker 4: We have font versus Vera on the main car.

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Speaker 3: Looking forward to following that UFC Vegas fifty three taking

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Speaker 3: place at the Apex in Vegas. Twelve fights, six on

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Speaker 3: the main card, six prelims. We're gonna get to the

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Speaker 3: guys fight of the night, their picks for the fight

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Speaker 3: of the night in their eyes, underdog plays, favorite props,

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Speaker 3: and also a look at the daily fantasy angles best

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Speaker 3: bets as well, looking forward to all of that.

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Speaker 4: First we go to the main event.

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Speaker 3: We have mar and Vera taking on Rob font Vera

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Speaker 3: coming from Ecuador, Font here in the States.

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Speaker 4: It's a bantamweight bout. Font is the favorite.

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Speaker 3: Sean Zarillo, what is your approach to betting the main

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Speaker 3: fight for the weekend.

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Speaker 5: One thirty five?

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Speaker 6: Bandon weight?

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Speaker 7: My favorite division probably right now in MMA, absolutely loaded,

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Speaker 7: particularly in the UFC. There's also a Grand Prix going

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Speaker 7: on a bell tour that is absolutely loaded with talent

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Speaker 7: as well. So I think one thirty five might have

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Speaker 7: the best fighters in the world top to bottom, and

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Speaker 7: people have been clamoring for Marlin Chido Vera to get

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Speaker 7: a five round main event because this guy always starts

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Speaker 7: slow and tends to build the longer he goes in

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Speaker 7: the fights. He's very violent, very aggressive in his pursuit

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Speaker 7: of a finish, particularly when he sees his opponent hurt.

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Speaker 7: Font coming off of a pair of made events, a

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Speaker 7: win over Cody Garbrandt, a lost to Jose Aldo where

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Speaker 7: he actually outstruck Aldo one forty nine to eighty six.

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Speaker 7: Font very active, good boxer, gonna throw a ton of jabs,

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Speaker 7: very chris jab Gonna try to keep Vera on the

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Speaker 7: end of it for as long as possible, and I

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Speaker 7: expect him to win their early minutes here, perhaps the

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Speaker 7: first two rounds. As I mentioned, Cheeto a very slow starter,

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Speaker 7: likes to get his reads, eventually build the longer the

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Speaker 7: fight goes. I think what's really interesting here is to

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Speaker 7: see when Cheeto starts to take over, because I do

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Speaker 7: expect his power to start to impact Font at some point.

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Speaker 7: It seemed like in that Aldo fight, once Font got hurt,

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Speaker 7: he was able to get hurt again and again very easily.

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Speaker 7: I don't know if he broke something in his face,

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Speaker 7: but he seemed just very skeptical of getting hit. And

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Speaker 7: that's why even though he doubled up, although in terms

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Speaker 7: of volume, all the landed the much worse significant power

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Speaker 7: shots knocked him down multiple times, seemed to win the

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Speaker 7: right moments, but it was very apparent that Font didn't

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Speaker 7: want to get hit. I didn't want to close the

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Speaker 7: distance once he started getting hit. What will determine this fight,

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Speaker 7: my eyes, is the grappling. Who wins the grappling exchanges,

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Speaker 7: because I do expect them to grapple at some point,

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Speaker 7: even though Font was able to take al Though down

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Speaker 7: although actually control them for over nine minutes of that

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Speaker 7: fight in the grappling, and both guys have shown vulnerability

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Speaker 7: once they get taken down in the past, you can

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Speaker 7: keep their backs on the mat and you can hold

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Speaker 7: them down for extended stretches. So perhaps the wrestling is

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Speaker 7: what ends up determining who wins this fight if it

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Speaker 7: goes to the full twenty five minutes. I give vera

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Speaker 7: much more finishing upside than that I do Font Font

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Speaker 7: around a twenty five percent finished probability for me Vera

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Speaker 7: closer to fifty percent.

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Speaker 5: So, actually, like the overs here, the over four and a.

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Speaker 7: Half, the fight to go at the distance, you can

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Speaker 7: get that minus one thirty eight at win, I've projected

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Speaker 7: that line closer to minus one seventy five. Ultimately, I

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Speaker 7: think we go twenty five minutes. Both of these guys

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Speaker 7: are very durable. Maybe Vera finds the late finish, but

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Speaker 7: he's also the guy who's on tested in the championship rounds.

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Speaker 7: So ultimately I think we see Vera takeover in the

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Speaker 7: second half of the fight, but it depends at what

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Speaker 7: point he takes over. Does he win the final three rounds?

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Speaker 7: This font secure the first three before Vera eventually pulls

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Speaker 7: down the stretch.

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Speaker 4: Billy.

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Speaker 3: These fighters have very similar their records are very similar,

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Speaker 3: their builds are very similar. But to Zarillo's point, when

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Speaker 3: you look at the grappling, take down, accuracy, takedown defense,

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Speaker 3: Vera has slight edges in those categories. How are you

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Speaker 3: handicapping the main event and what's your approach to betting it?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I really like Sean's point about the power I

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Speaker 8: see even wider discrepancy in terms of who has the

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Speaker 8: finishing upside here in favor of Vera. So the only

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Speaker 8: bet that I'm going to be making, I'm gonna betting

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Speaker 8: Vera inside the distance at plus three hundred. I don't

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Speaker 8: really see him winning a decision. As Sean pointed out,

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Speaker 8: he's untested in five round fights. He might take up,

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Speaker 8: you know, takeover in the second, third round, but then

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Speaker 8: find he doesn't have the gas tank that he thought

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Speaker 8: he did when he's never fought.

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Speaker 6: Five rounds like that.

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Speaker 8: You know, that's sixty percent more fight effectively that he

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Speaker 8: has to get through. So I really don't see Vera

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Speaker 8: winning a decision. Similarly, I don't see putting away Vera.

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Speaker 8: He's more than happy to win minutes, especially if he

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Speaker 8: gets clipped a couple of times, as Sean pointed out

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Speaker 8: in the Aldo fight.

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Speaker 6: So you can get both of those at plus money.

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Speaker 8: Very inside the distance is plus three hundred, and then

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Speaker 8: Fond's decision is plus one seventy. I think that's the

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Speaker 8: likeliest way either these guys win that fight. That way,

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Speaker 8: you're covering yourself on both sides. So that's the only

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Speaker 8: bat I'll be making on it.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a pretty binary fight. Myes to Billy Font

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Speaker 7: just seems like a point fighter. You know, he's he's quick,

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Speaker 7: he's got a great job, but he's not actively trying

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Speaker 7: to finish people where vera At the moment he gets

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Speaker 7: on top of you, it's just absolute helbos and he's

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Speaker 7: a pretty vicious finisher. We saw what he did to

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Speaker 7: Shaun O'Malley once he heard him, so yeah, Binary fight

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Speaker 7: for me. But Font seems pretty tough as well.

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Speaker 3: They're a dog tomorrow at plus one fifteen in Font

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Speaker 3: at minus one forty.

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Speaker 4: He is your favorite.

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Speaker 3: Okay, let's move on to our favorite underdog bet four

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Speaker 3: UFC Vegas fifty three. As we tell you on every episode,

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Speaker 3: and it's always worth repeating shop those lines to get

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Speaker 3: your the best number possible when you're looking at those

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Speaker 3: underdog bets, Sean Zarrillo your favorite dog for the event, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: the Kurt Jerger.

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Speaker 7: First five of the night, Carlos Kndalario plus two hundred

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Speaker 7: against tatsu Terieira Teira, Japanese debutante, very unproven, low level

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Speaker 7: of competition, seems like he needs the grapple in order

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Speaker 7: to win his fights, and that's where the line kind

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Speaker 7: of represents. Anytime you get a favorite who has all

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Speaker 7: the grappling upside. That's when they tend to be a

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Speaker 7: more justifiable or or favorite. If this was just a

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Speaker 7: pure striker versus grappler, and Condelario is the grappler, Tyra

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Speaker 7: was the favorite. As the striker, this line would probably

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Speaker 7: be closer to minus one fifty. That said, Condo Lario

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Speaker 7: is the better striker here in my eyes, more battle tested.

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Speaker 7: Thought he won his Contender Series fright against Altha Morano

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Speaker 7: who ended up losing his USADB, but better tested against

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Speaker 7: better competition, more experienced. Tyra also twenty two years old,

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Speaker 7: it's very young, not physically all the way there yet,

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Speaker 7: so there's a chance if he faces any resistance in

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Speaker 7: the grappling. If Condolera can keep this on the feet

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Speaker 7: or get back to his feet multiple times, I think

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Speaker 7: he could definitely win minutes here, could win potentially the

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Speaker 7: second and third rounds if Tyra tires out and isn't

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Speaker 7: able to finish the guy quickly like he's experienced in

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Speaker 7: the past. So Condo Lario I projected this closer to

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Speaker 7: plus two hundred, but I'm fine taking anything a two

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Speaker 7: to one or better against an opponent who has so

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Speaker 7: many question marks. I like taking shots against these debutantes,

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Speaker 7: especially the young ones who just aren't in their physical

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Speaker 7: prime yet.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we got a debut, looking forward to seeing how

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Speaker 3: that plays out, And like you said, there's just some

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Speaker 3: a lot of questions right around a fighter that has

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Speaker 3: a debut situation and how it plays out.

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Speaker 4: Billy Ward your favorite underdog play?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, real quick. I really like Shohn's peck. I was

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Speaker 6: thinking that myself, but didn't.

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Speaker 8: Quite have the have the metal to try it myself.

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Speaker 8: But now I feel like I've got permission, so gonna

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Speaker 8: go a bet that one. But I'm looking at Jared Gordon.

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Speaker 8: He's fighting Grant Dawson. He's about plus one sixty depending on.

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Speaker 6: Where you look.

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Speaker 8: Last I check, it looks to be a real wrestle

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Speaker 8: heavy matchup between Dawson and Gordon. Both guys i've got

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Speaker 8: attempting at least two takedowns per round. But I think

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Speaker 8: what people miss is that sometimes the better offensive wrestler

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Speaker 8: isn't the better defensive wrestler. And Dawson he's landed more

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Speaker 8: takedowns in his career, but we haven't really seen anyone

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Speaker 8: try to counter wrestle him and try to get to

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Speaker 8: it first. So a lot of these guys, if they

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Speaker 8: get on top, they're great, but the minute they're on

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Speaker 8: their back, it's a struggle. And even I'm not super

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Speaker 8: confident in Dawson's ability to get on top, especially late

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Speaker 8: in the fight. Ricky sim put up ten eight round

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Speaker 8: against him in their third round. To the last fight,

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Speaker 8: he was one for thirteen and takedowns against Leonardo Santos,

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Speaker 8: so I'm not so sure that he's gonna have success

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Speaker 8: on the offensive side of it.

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Speaker 6: And then I think if Gordon gets on top of

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Speaker 6: him and controls the fighter, it'll be pretty easy.

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Speaker 8: I don't know really who's got a striking edge here.

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Speaker 8: We haven't seen a ton of either guy doing it.

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Speaker 8: I'd have to lean towards Gordon, I think. So when

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Speaker 8: we've got striking, possibly offensive wrestling and then the cardio

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Speaker 8: being the big factor, I like Gordon at plus one

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Speaker 8: sixty and then a possible live betting opportunity if he

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Speaker 8: gets taken down early on.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I love Gordon live after round one.

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Speaker 7: That's probably how I'm targeting to spite That's the only

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Speaker 7: reason I didn't bet it yet. I do have a

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Speaker 7: better prop that we'll get to in a second, but

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Speaker 7: Gordon live after round one. Dawson tends to tire out

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Speaker 7: fairly quickly.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: As far as significant strikes, Gordon has the edge by

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Speaker 3: about two strikes landed per minute over him at five

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Speaker 3: point two to two, whereas Dawson's at three point oh six.

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Speaker 3: Those are their averages to this point. But like Billy said,

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Speaker 3: I mean there's still the sample sizes you have to

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Speaker 3: you know. I think after one round you get a

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Speaker 3: better idea of how it's going. And then, like you said,

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Speaker 3: maybe we'll see if Dawson peters out as the fight continues.

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Speaker 3: Moving on to the Fight of the Night, Andre Peely

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Speaker 3: and Joe Anderson Brito so Phely is the heavy favorite

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Speaker 3: in this one at minus two to fifty Brito at

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Speaker 3: plus two hundred. First off, I always think it's worth

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Speaker 3: mentioning or asking Sean and Billy why this is the

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Speaker 3: fight you're you're targeting and why does it stand out

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Speaker 3: to you. We'll start with Sean.

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Speaker 7: This is a difficult card to figure out what the

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Speaker 7: fight of the Knight should be, not a ton of

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Speaker 7: big names or not a ton of stakes, you know,

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Speaker 7: in terms of rankings. But I think this pace in

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Speaker 7: this fight should be absolutely ridiculous, and I think that's

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Speaker 7: why the UFC put it in the featured spot on

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Speaker 7: the main card. I just expect to see a very

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Speaker 7: very high paced fight and likely to finish. I did

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Speaker 7: bet the fight to end inside the distance at plus

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Speaker 7: one twenty five at Rivers projected this at fifty percent,

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Speaker 7: so fifty percent finished probability for either guy actually, specifically

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Speaker 7: in my projections and may people may find that surprising.

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Speaker 7: Ten of Phelya's past twelve fights have gone to it decision.

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Speaker 7: Britos had two fights on the UFC banner, included at

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Speaker 7: Contenter Series fight.

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Speaker 5: Both of those went to a decision.

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Speaker 7: But if you watch the way these guys fight, the

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Speaker 7: pace is absolutely absurd. I could see either're getting knocked out.

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Speaker 7: I could see a scramble where one of them gets submitted.

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Speaker 7: So fight to end inside the distance the under two

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Speaker 7: and a half closer to plus one fifty. I think

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Speaker 7: those are both the sides that I would want to

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Speaker 7: be on, just given the pace of the fight.

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Speaker 3: Billy, how about you, why is it a fight that

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Speaker 3: stands out and how do you want to bet it?

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Speaker 8: Well, to answer your question directly about why it's by

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Speaker 8: the night. One guy's nickname is Touchy Pheely, so we

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Speaker 8: can't we can't not mention Andre Touchy Phely as one

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Speaker 8: of the great UFC nicknames that we have right now.

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Speaker 6: But no, I'm with Sean in terms of the it

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Speaker 6: should be a super high paced fight, a lot of action,

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Speaker 6: a lot of stuff happening.

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Speaker 8: Which while I'm looking over at prize picks for my

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Speaker 8: exposure to this fight, they've got the significant strike lines

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Speaker 8: on Touchy Pheey at fifty three and a half and

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Speaker 8: if you look at his per minute right that's about

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Speaker 8: twelve ish minutes. I think based on what he's landed

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Speaker 8: so far that it would need to go and that's

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Speaker 8: with a standard opponent and who might not be as

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Speaker 8: aggressive in terms of coming forward and working with him.

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Speaker 6: So I really like that as start of the start

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Speaker 6: of some prize picks.

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Speaker 7: Philly, we talked about livebat on Gordon Phelly Live after

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Speaker 7: round one. Brito tends to put power into everything. He's

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Speaker 7: a bit of a berserker, especially early, and he's going

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Speaker 7: to try to get you out of there, and he'll

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Speaker 7: slow down the longer the fight goes. So Philly as

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Speaker 7: the favorite minus two fifty pre fight. Don't love it,

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Speaker 7: but if you can get a better price after round one,

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Speaker 7: I'd certainly jump in.

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Speaker 3: As a general rule of thumb when it comes to

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Speaker 3: live betting these events, is there something that would take

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Speaker 3: you off of betting it live? Would something have to

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Speaker 3: take place in the first round in round one to say, okay,

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Speaker 3: maybe not a good idea to go get involved in

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Speaker 3: any case.

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Speaker 7: So if I know that Brita, if I'm expecting Brito

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Speaker 7: to come in and fight at a high pace in

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Speaker 7: the first round, that's something I want, right I want

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Speaker 7: him to exert his energy and potentially tire out.

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Speaker 5: But if he hurts.

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Speaker 7: Pheely bad and Philly's sitting on the stool and he's

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Speaker 7: kind of wobbled, I'm not going to jump in because

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Speaker 7: then I'm going to be worried about him getting finished

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Speaker 7: early in round two. Is he fully recovered yet? But yeah,

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Speaker 7: I'm looking for body language, I'm looking for injuries. I'm

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Speaker 7: looking for mostly how the fighter is responding to resistance,

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Speaker 7: especially near the end of the first round, because you

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Speaker 7: only have about a minute to make that decision whether

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Speaker 7: to fire on the live line between rounds, so you

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Speaker 7: have to make that decision very quickly. Also, try to

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Speaker 7: this is actually a bigger point, try to find a

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Speaker 7: feed UFC fight Pass feed that doesn't show you commercials

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Speaker 7: between rounds. Get the fighters on the stools, get the

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Speaker 7: conversation that they're having with their corner, because you can

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Speaker 7: tell a lot just about the way the fighter is

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Speaker 7: reacting on the stool. Billy could probably elaborate more than

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Speaker 7: I can, but sometimes it's pretty obvious when they're slumped

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Speaker 7: and seem defeated between rounds.

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Speaker 8: When you have a favorite that gets longer odds after

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Speaker 8: the first round because they want it, that's just never

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Speaker 8: one I'm going to bet because you should have taken

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Speaker 8: that at the better odds in the first place.

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Speaker 6: So that's one that you know.

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Speaker 8: If Feeley wins the first round, I don't really care

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Speaker 8: how aggressive Brito was her, how tirety looks. That's just

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Speaker 8: now you're just getting worse bet than you had before.

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Speaker 8: But no, in terms of the body language and stuff.

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Speaker 6: One of the things I.

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Speaker 8: Try to at least with the English speaking fighters is

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Speaker 8: when the coaches are telling a guy that they've won

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Speaker 8: rounds and it doesn't really look like they have, that's

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Speaker 8: the guy I'm gonna fake because they're probably going to

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Speaker 8: play it safer than they should and also get you know,

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Speaker 8: more likely to get stopped because they're not really pushing

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Speaker 8: as hard. So that's a big one, is just trying

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Speaker 8: to figure out what the coaches are telling people and

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Speaker 8: then making that evaluation on your own.

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Speaker 6: Side about whether the coaches are right.

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Speaker 8: So here guys say oh, you're up, you know, two

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Speaker 8: rounds to nothing, and then watching it at home, I'll say,

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Speaker 8: I don't know, this one might be one one that

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Speaker 8: guy's probably going to take it easy and ended up

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Speaker 8: dropping the third round, which you can get some controversial

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Speaker 8: decisions that way.

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Speaker 7: The commentary really influences things as well. Oftentimes the commentators

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Speaker 7: have no idea what the scoring criteria is, and they'll

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Speaker 7: talk about control time when somebody's landing all the damage.

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Speaker 7: If you just watch the fight and ignore the commentary,

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Speaker 7: you can actually have a better idea of what the

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Speaker 7: live odds should be as well. You know, try to

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Speaker 7: familiarize yourself with the fact that scoring damage that will

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Speaker 7: accumulate towards finishing the fight, or doing grappling submission attempts

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Speaker 7: that are accumulating towards finishing the fight that's what judges

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Speaker 7: are looking for.

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Speaker 5: They're not looking for somebody who's just holding somebody down.

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Speaker 7: You know, if you're just firing strikes from your back,

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Speaker 7: you're you're not really gonna win rounds typically, but it

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Speaker 7: has happened in the past where a fighter just laying

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Speaker 7: on top doing nothing loses a round to a fighter

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Speaker 7: who is actually trying to land damage from the bottom.

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Speaker 7: So ignore the commentary, try to focus on who you

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Speaker 7: think is actually winning the fight.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's a real good point. Only on mute between rounds.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's good stuff. Now for a word from our

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Speaker 4: Let's get back to the show.

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Speaker 3: Moving on to our favorite props and by the way,

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Speaker 3: you're tuning into the Action Network podcast. The UFC Vegas

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Speaker 3: fifty three betting preview Brendan Glasshe and Schanzrello, Billy Ward

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Speaker 3: making our way through the card and everything. We don't

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Speaker 3: get to every fight on this podcast when we talk UFC,

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Speaker 3: but we get to what we're playing here for the weekend.

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Speaker 3: So Sean, you've got two, You've got two favor props

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Speaker 3: for the weekend.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I had to include this second one. Billy already

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Speaker 7: talked about Gordon Dawson fight. There's just the price discrepancy

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Speaker 7: in a couple books. I projected this line minus two

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00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,600
Speaker 7: hundred to go to a decision. A lot of books

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Speaker 7: are at minus one ninety to go to a decision

377
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Speaker 7: over plus two hundred on the two or over minus

378
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,360
Speaker 7: two hundred on the over two and a half rounds.

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Speaker 7: At win Sportsbook it's minus one sixty two and it

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00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,040
Speaker 7: FANDUL it's minus one sixty eight. But both of their

381
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,440
Speaker 7: over props are over minus two hundred, so they're actually

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Speaker 7: almost betting on a finish happening. In the last two

383
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,760
Speaker 7: and a half minutes, I mentioned that Dawson tires out,

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Speaker 7: maybe Gordon finds a late finish, but I think just

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Speaker 7: giving those price discrepancies relative to the rest of the market,

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00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,360
Speaker 7: there's a thirty cent price discrepancy. You have to buy

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Speaker 7: one of those prices I did. I bought that minus

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00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,480
Speaker 7: one sixty two at win. If you want a plus

389
00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 7: money prop, the Christoph Yaco Gerald Mehershard fight. I see

390
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,440
Speaker 7: that he's a very binary matchup as well. Yaco by

391
00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,680
Speaker 7: decision or mieror Shart by submission project value on both

392
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,640
Speaker 7: of those props. I think Yako sixteen to two hund

393
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Speaker 7: decisions in his career. I expect him to do enough

394
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Speaker 7: to potentially win on volume on the feet or stay

395
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,600
Speaker 7: safe on the ground, stay safe in meer shorts guard.

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Speaker 7: He trains the American Top Team, very high level team.

397
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,400
Speaker 7: He's familiar with how to stay safe on the ground.

398
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Speaker 7: I know Meer Shirt is a very dangerousbmission grappler, but

399
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Speaker 7: Yako a boring guy.

400
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,800
Speaker 5: Nobody wants to bet on him. Plus two hundred by decision.

401
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,960
Speaker 7: I made that line closer to plus one fifty Billy

402
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:32,600
Speaker 7: favorite prop.

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00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:36,680
Speaker 8: Yeah, I'm looking at Johan lion Ase versus Gabe Green

404
00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:39,400
Speaker 8: by knockout. He's about plus two hundred, but I think

405
00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 8: it should be the vast majority of his win condition.

406
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 8: If you watch Gabe Green fight, he is more than

407
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Speaker 8: happy to take two shots just to give one back.

408
00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,480
Speaker 8: Super high activity coming forward the whole time. And we

409
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Speaker 8: don't have as much data on Lion Ease, but I

410
00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 8: watched his Contender Series fight. Everything he throws is looking

411
00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 8: for a knockout, from jabs to punches. He's got a

412
00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,280
Speaker 8: good wide variety of techniques. He came out and opened

413
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 8: the fight with like multiple head kicks right in a

414
00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,920
Speaker 8: row four seconds in, so he's hunting for a knockout

415
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,840
Speaker 8: pretty much from the time he gets out there till

416
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 8: the time the fight ends. He's also got some good

417
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,119
Speaker 8: takedown ability, but as soon as he took his opponent

418
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,199
Speaker 8: down in the Contender Series, he was just looking for

419
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:15,160
Speaker 8: heavy strikes from the top.

420
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 6: He didn't really look for a submission at all. I

421
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 6: also like his submission defense. Gabe Green has some good

422
00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:20,919
Speaker 6: submissions on his record.

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00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,280
Speaker 8: Lioneasy's opponent in the Contender Series about immediately went for

424
00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 8: a guyote. If anyone follows me on Twitter, you'll see

425
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,720
Speaker 8: all my tilt about guys who can't defend guillotines.

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Speaker 6: But Johan just did a great job of it.

427
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,119
Speaker 8: He stepped over, broke the position instead of trying to

428
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:36,919
Speaker 8: push away on the head like so many guys do.

429
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:39,320
Speaker 8: So I think if he gets a takedown and gets

430
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,000
Speaker 8: on top, will have a good opportunity to put him

431
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,399
Speaker 8: away and won't really be looking for a submission. And

432
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 8: then when it's standing, he's just thrown everything with vicious intent.

433
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,399
Speaker 6: How long that'll be able to last? I don't know.

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00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 8: Gabe Green might be another good life betting opportunity if

435
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:52,639
Speaker 8: he doesn't get him out of their fast, But I

436
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,440
Speaker 8: think if you're betting this pre fight, Lionesse by Ko

437
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,239
Speaker 8: at plus two hundred is the way to go.

438
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 4: The White Lion from Canada.

439
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,640
Speaker 8: Look another tremendous nickname. We've got a pretty good card

440
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 8: in terms of nicknames.

441
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it makes sense Lionise. You know there's the

442
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,239
Speaker 3: pronunciation there as you work a little lion in. It's good,

443
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 3: it really is. It's a great nickname. Weekend in the UFC.

444
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,879
Speaker 3: Let's go to DFS, Billy as I'll just you know,

445
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,320
Speaker 3: I don't really care mentioning this. I'm I'm in Connecticut

446
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 3: doing this show today, so I can't get access to DFS,

447
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,879
Speaker 3: So Billy, please take it away.

448
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:22,920
Speaker 4: I can't even pull up salaries right now.

449
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,880
Speaker 3: What is the lead thought when you open the contest

450
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 3: and you're trying to diagram a way to make the

451
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:28,479
Speaker 3: winning lineup.

452
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 8: Yeah, so we have the standard amount of guys at

453
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 8: the super high price range. We've got roman Off again

454
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,479
Speaker 8: at ninety six hundred, touchy Peees ninety three hundred. But

455
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,320
Speaker 8: what we don't have is a lot of fights that

456
00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 8: are likely to end inside the distance. I think we've

457
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 8: only got two that are better than minus one fifty

458
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:44,119
Speaker 8: to get stopped.

459
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:45,200
Speaker 6: So that makes me.

460
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,160
Speaker 8: Outside of roman Off, who we talked about last week

461
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,240
Speaker 8: that fight got moved to this one, I'm all in

462
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 8: on him again. Hopefully Sherman actually fights this time. But

463
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 8: outside of that, I really don't like this high end,

464
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 8: just because with those expensive fighters, you really really need

465
00:19:58,240 --> 00:19:58,879
Speaker 8: a stoppage.

466
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 6: V at nine thousand might be the one exception to

467
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:02,400
Speaker 6: that rule.

468
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,439
Speaker 8: I think he's probably got better stoppa jots than the

469
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 8: betting markets would imply, but that has me going in

470
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:08,960
Speaker 8: like the upper eight thousand range looking at some of

471
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,479
Speaker 8: these cheaper fights. I really want some exposure to Tristan

472
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,639
Speaker 8: Connelly and Darren Elkins. Outside of Romanov and Sherman, that's

473
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 8: the fight probably likeliest to have a stoppage. I don't

474
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 8: have a super strong take. Although we're going to get

475
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 8: to it on best bets about which guy is going

476
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 8: to win. But I think that's one that you know,

477
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,119
Speaker 8: if I'm using my Fantasy Labs optimizer, I'm just going

478
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 8: to make a rule that one of those two is

479
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 8: in all my lineups. And then on the cheaper side,

480
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 8: we've alluded to it with our underdogs. I really like

481
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 8: Jared Gordon. I don't think he gets finished. I think

482
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 8: he has all the finishing up side in that fight,

483
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:38,879
Speaker 8: so you can play him in cash games knowing that

484
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 8: he'll put up some points pretty much no.

485
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 6: Matter what happens.

486
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 8: And then who'd else I have for the cheap side,

487
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 8: and then Lion Easy for he's GPP only he's either

488
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 8: going to get a knockout or probably lose pretty badly

489
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 8: from fatigue.

490
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,360
Speaker 6: But that's where I'm looking at the cheap bend.

491
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 4: Nice.

492
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 3: I mean, I would imagine when we're talking about betting,

493
00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 3: you know, getting in on live betting that of course,

494
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 3: when you do dat, the salary is set in stone,

495
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 3: like it's not changing, So there's some value there with

496
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 3: some cheaper fighters.

497
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 8: Usually when we have a single heavyweight fight, you almost

498
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 8: always want to target that and get there just because

499
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 8: those guys stop so much. This is the exception to that.

500
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,640
Speaker 8: I don't see our Laski versus Kalie getting really stopped.

501
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 8: I think Arlovsky wins it, but his power seems to

502
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 8: have left him many years ago, so I think he

503
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 8: out points him.

504
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 6: Doesn't have enough.

505
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 8: Activity to really rack up a huge score, though he's

506
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 8: not super expensive, so you can go there, but it's

507
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 8: not a priority for me this week.

508
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 4: Anything to add Zerrilla.

509
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 7: I did bet Kllier since we're talking about that fight.

510
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,360
Speaker 7: I just see him as a slightly improved version of

511
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 7: the volume that Arlovsky's seen in his last two fights.

512
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 7: Arlovsky goes to a decision, close split decision almost every time,

513
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 7: and Kllier to be a bit more active and a

514
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 7: bit better in terms of striking technique than a guy

515
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,919
Speaker 7: like Jared vander Us. So I think Kalier has a

516
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 7: better chance of beating Arlovsky than Arlovsky's recent opponents did,

517
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 7: and I think you're getting a bit better reprice on.

518
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 5: Him now to Sleeper.

519
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 7: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions

520
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 7: of players. You probably already have a Fantasy league on there.

521
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 7: I use it for mine. It's a game changing product

522
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 7: unlike anything else in the industry, and now you could

523
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,640
Speaker 7: win on Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. It's

524
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 7: super simple. First, in any sport, choose two or more

525
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 7: players that you like and pick their over or under

526
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 7: for example, number of points in basketball or hits in baseball.

527
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 7: Then choose the amount of money you want to enter

528
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 7: into the contest. If you pick correctly, you can win

529
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 7: anywhere from two to over twenty times the amount you

530
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 7: put in. The main reason I'm excited about over under

531
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 7: on Sleeper is that it's the only app where I

532
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 7: can join my buddies contest and play together. It's got

533
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,239
Speaker 7: a built in group chat where I can see and

534
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 7: copy my friend's picks with the top of a button.

535
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 7: It's insanely fun to write it out together. So stop

536
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 7: what you're doing and download Sleeper now to play their

537
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 7: new over undergame.

538
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 5: Have fun with your friends, make some money.

539
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 7: Make sure to use promo code action and Sleeper match

540
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 7: your deposit to one hundred dollars Again, download Sleeper, then

541
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 7: use promo Code Action when you deposit. Terms and conditions apply.

542
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 7: See Sleeper's terms of use for details.

543
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 5: Okay, back to the show.

544
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 3: Okay, before we rep we get two best bets for

545
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 3: UFC Vegas fifty three Sean Zarrella, you can go first.

546
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 7: Well, Billy and I have the same bet here, and

547
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 7: I guess this would have been our best underdog, but

548
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,719
Speaker 7: this is our best underdog, So Tristan Connelly plus one

549
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 7: sixty against Darren Elkins. I've always liked Darren Elkins. He

550
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 7: has the damage tattooed across his chest. It's one of

551
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 7: the worst tattoos in the history of my world. Not

552
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 7: just an mma, but the guy is an absolute warrior.

553
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 7: He fends the fall behind and fights, and he never

554
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 7: gives up, and he puts the damage back on his opponents.

555
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 7: He's a great guy to live bet after round one,

556
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 7: but I think he's damaged goods at this point. He

557
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 7: is one hundred years old in fight years, cannot take

558
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 7: any sort of shots without completely crumbling.

559
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 5: At this point.

560
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 7: I think he only beat Derek Minner because Minner kept

561
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 7: trying to pull guillotine, which Billy Is said some guys

562
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:05,120
Speaker 7: are completely incapable of defending. Elkins is okay at defending guillotines.

563
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 7: He's tough to submit. Connolly not a big power puncher either,

564
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 7: and Connolly also dropping down to one forty five off

565
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 7: of a neck surgery. Those are my concerns on his side,

566
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 7: But I'm getting plus one sixty. I've projected this closer

567
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 7: to plus one twenty five. I just think Elkins is watched,

568
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 7: he can't take a shot anymore, and I expect Connley

569
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 7: to put him away. Also, value on Connolly's knockout prop.

570
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 7: I'll probably put that in some rown robins.

571
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 3: For our Action Network audience if you are listening, to

572
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 3: try and paint the picture. If you ever see the

573
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 3: movie We're the Millers and the Tattoo of No Regrets.

574
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 4: If you thought that was bad, this is worse.

575
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 3: Billy Sean said it, it's the same bet you're you're

576
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 3: looking at the same fight, but are you gonna bet it.

577
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 4: A little differently?

578
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 6: No, We're lockstep on this one.

579
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 8: The one point I wanted to add is I think

580
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 8: Elkins probably his best hope is to get on top

581
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 8: and win this fight through control time. But Connolly defended

582
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,880
Speaker 8: four or five takedowns against Pat Sabatini in his last fight,

583
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,919
Speaker 8: and Sabotini is a very very strong wrestler, so I

584
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 8: don't really see Elkins doing much better. And Sabotini did

585
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 8: against him and then as long as it stays standing,

586
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 8: I'm all over Connelly. So I'm just yeah, looking forward

587
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 8: to explaining this terrible tattoo to my wife and daughter

588
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:10,120
Speaker 8: as we're watching this fight.

589
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 6: And going from there. So I asked his nickname, what

590
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 6: are you gonna do?

591
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 4: Very good? All right? I think that might be a first,

592
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 4: but you guys have the same best bet.

593
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 7: Yeah, I was gonna put Connelly in the favorite dog section,

594
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 7: but he is my favorite bet.

595
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 6: You know.

596
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 7: I didn't want to give out a bet that's not

597
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 7: my favorite bet here just because Billy already put it

598
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 7: in the email first. So definitely the first time we've

599
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 7: been in full lock step on our best bet for

600
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 7: a card and hopefully he pays off because I'm sure

601
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 7: people will tell it now.

602
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 6: Hopefully we get it.

603
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 4: Okay, Fella's great work again.

604
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 3: Action Network senior writer Sean Zarrillo also former pro MM

605
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 3: Fighter MMA analyst at the Action Network. Billy Ward for

606
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 3: those guys, Brendan Glasheen, thanks for everyone for tuning into

607
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcaster you f C Vegas fifty three

608
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 3: betting preview, best of luck this weekend. We join you

609
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 3: every Friday, so we look forward to seeing you and

610
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 3: talking to you again next week.

611
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 2: And the

612
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 6: M