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Speaker 1: NFL The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go from throwing your job, we're sitting it to cash.

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Speaker 2: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go swim. That's in audible. Big bank, small bank. I

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Speaker 2: like to make money. All right, this is the ultimate

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Speaker 2: combin you want to and we are underway. Was up, everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to The Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 2: Today we've got our NFL player projections for week number four.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and here to break it

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Speaker 2: down with me one of the top rankers in the game,

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Speaker 2: the odds maker Sean Kerner. Sean, what's going on? I

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Speaker 2: heard your feeling under the weather.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, not feeling great, but you know what would

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Speaker 3: make me feel a little bit better talking football? So

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Speaker 3: ready to rock? I saw you're off to hot star.

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Speaker 3: I think we're both at sixty nine percent on the season,

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Speaker 3: so we need to go celebrate.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, had a good week. I think it

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Speaker 2: was five and two last week, five and one on Sunday,

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it was a good week. But if you

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Speaker 2: wanted to feel better, you did sweep me in props

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Speaker 2: in this pot you went too and oh I went

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Speaker 2: oh and one because the Browning never yeah, so you

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Speaker 2: got to figure out way maybe you have to do

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Speaker 2: give me three one actually, and.

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Speaker 3: The Kupaz prop ended up being six and a half,

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Speaker 3: so that was pretty close. But he finished with what

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Speaker 3: five catches?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, five for seventy two. Yeah. For this episode, we

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Speaker 2: go through each of our top fives at all the

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Speaker 2: positions players are high and low on, and of course

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Speaker 2: we throw out some props. So let's get right into

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Speaker 2: it with quarterback Sean Who your top five for Week four?

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Speaker 3: So I have Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Maholmes, Justin Herbert,

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Speaker 3: and Justin Fields at number five. WHOA Yeah, that scared

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Speaker 3: me too. I don't know why, but he's there.

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Speaker 2: Early week projections love it. I got Alan Hurts, Mahomes, Herbert,

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Speaker 2: and Tua. Looks like it's gonna be a shootout. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: who you high on? So I'm high on Daniel Jones

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Speaker 2: this week against the Seahawks. You know, he's had two

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Speaker 2: duds this year, but both were against really good defenses

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Speaker 2: and the Cowboys and Niners, and he finished QB one

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Speaker 2: in his lone easy matchup against the Cardinals, so he

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Speaker 2: has a good matchup this week against Seattle. They've allowed

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Speaker 2: all three quarterbacks to throw for more than three hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty yards. Their defense should improve if.

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Speaker 3: They get you know, Jamal Adams Reek Woolan back this week,

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Speaker 3: but they tend to allow a ton of plays. You know,

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Speaker 3: each of the last three seasons they've allowed the top

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Speaker 3: three plays per game, so the added play volume should

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Speaker 3: help Jones and I think this is this is a

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Speaker 3: good week to invest in him. You know, the the

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Speaker 3: Niners did a good job containing him, you know, with

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Speaker 3: his rushing up side last week. But I think he's

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Speaker 3: gonna have a good game on the ground, and I

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Speaker 3: think this is a week where, you know, he and

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Speaker 3: Darren Waller specifically, we'll get going.

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Speaker 2: So he's He's in my.

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Speaker 3: Top seven right now. So I'm super high on Daniel

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Speaker 3: Jones this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's my QB six and early projections as well.

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Speaker 2: You know, Seahawks defense just a totally different as as

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Speaker 2: you alluded to than the forty nine ers. So I

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Speaker 2: know forty nine players are like making fun of Daniel Jones,

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Speaker 2: like day, I can't believe you got all this bread,

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Speaker 2: but ye, I mean hey, when you're a good ass

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Speaker 2: defense like that, I guess you could touch shit. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm with you on DJ. For me, it's a couple

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Speaker 2: of guys. Brock Perty. I have him as a top

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Speaker 2: ten quarterback this week against the Cardinals, who, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: gave up that big game to Daniel Jones. I really

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Speaker 2: like what Perty's doing in this Niner offense is doing.

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Speaker 2: I mean they put up you know, upward high twenties

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Speaker 2: or thirties, and almost every start that he's played in,

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Speaker 2: So it's you know, it's time. We know that quarterback

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Speaker 2: implied point totals are very correlated because quarterbacks are usually

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Speaker 2: gonna score about sixty to seventy percent of the team's touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: whether it's passing or poor rushing. So love party in

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Speaker 2: this matchup against the Cardinals with a you know, you're

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Speaker 2: we're expecting the Ninrons to score thirty plus in this one.

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Speaker 2: And then Russell Wilson. I have him as a you know,

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Speaker 2: fringe QB one as well. He's QB seventeen in ECR.

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Speaker 2: And you know, this Bears defense. If there's a defense

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Speaker 2: that could potentially be as worse as the Broncos, it

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Speaker 2: is this Chicago Bear defense. So you know I'm going

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Speaker 2: to continue to I was hiring Wilson last week, continue

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Speaker 2: to ride Wilson here. Better than last year. Not perfect. Still,

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Speaker 2: I think the scripted portion Temp Payton scripted portion of

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Speaker 2: the game is better, uh than you know, the like

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Speaker 2: the second half or whatever. But overall, I think Wilson

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Speaker 2: should still be in that QB one discussion. And ECR

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Speaker 2: has him you know, way kind of a mid range

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Speaker 2: TB two. Yeah, like Marvin mims emergence. Yea's huge for him.

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Speaker 3: He's only averaging what like a thirty five restaurant rate

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Speaker 3: and he's still topping seven yards of game, so that

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Speaker 3: I think that's really huge for Wilson too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Wilson. You know Mims is Mims is interesting

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Speaker 2: because he didn't even run play. He hasn't played that

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Speaker 2: much on offense yet. It's been just he's like a

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Speaker 2: Canarious Tony where when he's in there, you target him,

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Speaker 2: but there's some room to grow. And yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: you know Judy only you know, getting healthier should help

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Speaker 2: Wilson as well. So this Bears, this Bears defense where

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Speaker 2: they yet top fifth most points allowed to quarterbacks through

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Speaker 2: three weeks. Who you will on?

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Speaker 3: I'm low on Lamar Jackson mainly because he's playing the

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Speaker 3: Browns this week, so he opens the week is my

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Speaker 3: QB ten. And you know last week he only threw

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Speaker 3: for two hundred and two yards no touchdowns, but you

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Speaker 3: know he was able to salvage his fantasy day with

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Speaker 3: one hundred yards on the ground and two touchdowns. But

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Speaker 3: as we we haven't seen the volume in the passing

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Speaker 3: game we expected in this new scheme under Todd Monkin

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Speaker 3: and maybe you know he's gonna get going once he's

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Speaker 3: a little bit more comfortable in the new scheme. But

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Speaker 3: this week he just has an absolute brutal matchup. You know,

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Speaker 3: the Browns defense has been dominant so far. You know,

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Speaker 3: they've held Burrow and Ryan Tannehill to less than one

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Speaker 3: hundred and five yards passing. Plus you know, the Ravens

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Speaker 3: have been dealing with injuries in their offensive line. So

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Speaker 3: this probably isn't the week to you know, rank Lamar

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Speaker 3: in your top five. You probably still have to play

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Speaker 3: in this week. Like I said, he's like QB ten,

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Speaker 3: but we have to temper our expectations when anybody who's

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Speaker 3: facing the Browns right now. So he's he's more of

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Speaker 3: a low end QB one for me this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him. I have him. Seven's a little higher.

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Speaker 2: I think you're I think Fields is the guy that's jumping. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: where do you field? It feels eight? No, no, nine? Sorry? Nine, Okay,

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Speaker 2: that makes sense sense, But yeah, I agree. This is

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a kind of a you know,

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Speaker 2: Jackson's not a bona fide top five quarterback this week.

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Speaker 2: For me, I am low on Joe Burrow. He's my

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Speaker 2: QB fourteen to start the week, and that's just because

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Speaker 2: you know, he doesn't look quite healthy, and so I

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Speaker 2: think this is going to be kind of a new norm.

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Speaker 2: It's not going to be quite as explosive. He's going

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Speaker 2: to get the ball out a little bit quicker. And

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Speaker 2: you're playing this Titan team who they haven't been great

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Speaker 2: against the pass. They're better, they're a run past funnel defense.

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Speaker 2: But you're looking at a pretty low scoring game, especially

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Speaker 2: for the Bengals. You know, usually we're projecting the Bengals

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Speaker 2: to score twenty six, twenty seven, twenty eight points. I

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Speaker 2: haven't projected for about twenty two right now on the

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Speaker 2: road in Tennessee, and the game with a game with

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Speaker 2: a total of forty one and a half, So just

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Speaker 2: not as much touchdown equity to go around here. You're

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Speaker 2: really going to depend on Burrow to get you know,

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Speaker 2: two three touchdowns and them not rush for any or

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Speaker 2: anything like that. So little well around Burrow this week

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Speaker 2: start the week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense. Like I was surprised he even

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Speaker 3: played this week. And he's obviously the type of quarterback

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Speaker 3: that doesn't use his legs, you know, to generate offense,

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Speaker 3: but he does use his legs to escape the pocket. Like,

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Speaker 3: his efficiency goes way up when he's outside the pocket.

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Speaker 3: So if he's having to stay inside the pocket more

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Speaker 3: because he doesn't have that mobility, it will start to

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Speaker 3: impact his passing game as well. So yeah, low on

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Speaker 3: him as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's you know, usually he scrambles about four percent

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Speaker 2: of the time, and this year he's only scrambling. He

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Speaker 2: scrambled less than one percent at the time, So I

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Speaker 2: kind of factor that stuff in, you know, design run scrambles,

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Speaker 2: things like that. And yeah, Burrow's rushing projection is also

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Speaker 2: now one of the lowest of any quarterbacks, so that

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Speaker 2: that knocks him down a few points or not a

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Speaker 2: few points, but a few tensive a point, which does

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Speaker 2: make a big difference in the TB rankins. Okay, prop

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Speaker 2: this is gonna be interesting. I gotta go to a

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Speaker 2: two a tongue of I low passing yards because you know,

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Speaker 2: he just came off this monster game against the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: Now you're playing the Bills, who have a better defense,

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Speaker 2: but you'r the total is fifty three and a half.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go to a tongue of I low

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Speaker 2: passing yards. Let's go two hundred and eighty five and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 3: Wow, Okay, a little bit higher than I thought, but

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Speaker 3: I was right there, like two seventy eight and a

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Speaker 3: half is my line. It's really tough to take his

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Speaker 3: under belt. Like you said, I think this is a

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Speaker 3: tougher matchup, so I'll take the under here. But that's

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Speaker 3: that's super close.

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Speaker 2: Nice. Yeah, I don't want know, I don't really hope. No. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I was hoping you said the under because it's one

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Speaker 2: of those things where I feel like the like the

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Speaker 2: median is so tough for him, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean it could be one of those

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Speaker 2: games where the Dolphins struggle and he still throws for

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Speaker 2: a lot. Although the Dolphins might just go to the

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Speaker 2: super Bowl, it's gonna be it's gonna be like Chiefs

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Speaker 2: Dolphins AFC Championship Game and the Chiefs win like fifty

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Speaker 2: four to forty eight. I'm some ridiculous like too is concussed.

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Speaker 2: I can over time.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully I hope he stays healthy.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: With the busy fall season already in swing, you might

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Speaker 2: you got in your top five, So.

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Speaker 3: I got Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, Jon Robinson, Travis ETN

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Speaker 3: and Josh Jacobs.

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Speaker 2: I got McCaffrey, Pollard, Bijon, Kyron Williams, and etn Oh,

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Speaker 2: Kiren Nice. Yeah, I mean last night, like you know,

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Speaker 2: he didn't didn't but he got overthrown a couple of targets.

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Speaker 2: But overall it's like he's just you can't get you

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Speaker 2: can't really get better than one hundred percent running back,

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Speaker 2: Like this is absurd, all right?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the top five is wide open because

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Speaker 3: no Nick Chubb yeah ye, and then uh Eckler and Barkley,

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Speaker 3: who knows if they do play, you know how effective

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Speaker 3: they'll be. So yeah, I think the top five this

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Speaker 3: week outside of McCaffrey obviously, is pretty wide open.

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Speaker 2: So I might get there.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm big Kiren sand he might make my

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Speaker 3: top five, but right now it's wide open after McCaffrey

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Speaker 3: for me.

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Speaker 2: I mean, here's another candidate for the top five. Who oh,

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Speaker 2: the guy's about to mention.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, this guy is the candidate for sure, Zach Moss. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: you know, he had another big game thirty carries, one

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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty two yards, caught a touchdown. I mean,

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Speaker 3: he is dominating playing time right now. Trey Sermon did

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Speaker 3: mix in a little bit on passing downs, but it

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Speaker 3: wasn't enough to really matter. So I think we get

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Speaker 3: one more really really good week from us at home

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Speaker 3: against the Rams, and then next week is when it

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Speaker 3: gets interesting because we don't know what's up with Jonathan Taylor.

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Speaker 3: So Moss, I mean, I'm curious, what are you doing

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Speaker 3: with you.

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Speaker 2: Have Moss right now?

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Speaker 3: Is he like a the ultimate buy or the ultimate

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Speaker 3: sell depending on how things shake out? Like, what are

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Speaker 3: you doing if you have him right now? Because he's

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Speaker 3: obviously he's a top ten back. He's my already eight

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Speaker 3: right now? I think so again, he's a must play

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Speaker 3: this week? But after that, what are you thinking?

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Speaker 2: I think I rather hold him because I think the like,

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Speaker 2: at this point, we still feel like, uh, you know,

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Speaker 2: Terror is coming back, but I you know, I don't

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Speaker 2: think you're gonna get the value for him because everyone

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Speaker 2: else is thinks Tarror is gonna come back. So I

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Speaker 2: rather hold him on the off chance that like this

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Speaker 2: Terror thing, like he just stays on uh what is

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Speaker 2: it the pup list or or you know, they trade him,

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Speaker 2: like you know what I mean, I feel like I'm

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Speaker 2: just holding him because I don't think I can get

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Speaker 2: fair value for him because everyone's gonna be like, no,

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Speaker 2: like you got to give me a discount because he

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Speaker 2: might only start for one more week. So I don't

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Speaker 2: you know what I mean, I think I could get

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Speaker 2: good value.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and like if they trade Tailorway or something, he's

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Speaker 3: a league winner for sure, right. I think the savage

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Speaker 3: thing to do, I think is to have both have

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Speaker 3: both and then hopefully Taylor gets traded to like somewhere,

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Speaker 3: uh and you have two rb ones or something like that.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, this is this is a week where people

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Speaker 3: have to decide what they want to do with them,

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Speaker 3: and I think having both these guys makes a ton

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Speaker 3: of sense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean because and also I rather, you know,

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Speaker 2: like you said, he's a top ten running back this week,

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Speaker 2: you might as well just get that last like if

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Speaker 2: Taylor comes back, you might as well still get that

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Speaker 2: last good week of value. So yeah, I wouldn't, I Firson,

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Speaker 2: we wouldn'trade him because I just don't think you get

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Speaker 2: I think there's more value in just having like a

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Speaker 2: top ten running back for this week and potentially having

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Speaker 2: a for the rest of the year if Taylor gets traded,

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Speaker 2: because you know, no one's gonna really say, oh yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to break the and for Zach Moss, right yeah,

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Speaker 2: uh for me, yeah. High. Kien Williams already mentioned it,

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Speaker 2: but he played one hundred percent of the snaps and

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Speaker 2: we three. Uh he only caught two of his seven targets,

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Speaker 2: so Stafford was kind of overthrowing him. Stafford started the

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Speaker 2: game really weird in that sense, like it wasn't really

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Speaker 2: Karen's fault at all. He just kept like missing on

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Speaker 2: these short throws. Looked like old school Zach Wilson out

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Speaker 2: there just whiffing on these short throws. But overall, like

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Speaker 2: I said, running backs, it's all about snaps. Kyle Williams

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Speaker 2: played one hundred percent of the snatch did not come

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Speaker 2: off the field. Uh. And that you know, even with

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Speaker 2: a slow game relatively, that's still worth a lot. So

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Speaker 2: love Kyen, who's still the RB ten in consensus. I

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Speaker 2: think he should be a top five guy who you

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Speaker 2: won on. Uh. So I'm alone a couple of guys.

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Speaker 3: Uh, both of these guys were I was high on

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Speaker 3: entering this season. The first one is aj Dillon against

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Speaker 3: the Lions. You know, when Aaron Jones is healthy, Uh,

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Speaker 3: Dylan just hasn't been able to offer consistent RB three

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Speaker 3: flex value.

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Speaker 2: That's kind of why I like them heading in the season.

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Speaker 3: But I always thought, you know, he was a potential

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Speaker 3: RB two, like a high end RB two if Aaron

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Speaker 3: Jones were to miss time. And two weeks now, Aaron

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Speaker 3: Jones is out and Dylan has posted dud So like

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Speaker 3: I'm on the fence with him, Like I think he's

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Speaker 3: droppable in shallow leagues because I think Aaron Jones will

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Speaker 3: probably return this week, but just he hasn't showed the

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Speaker 3: upside if Aaron Jones miss his time, and you can't

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Speaker 3: trust them when Aaron Jones is healthy. So I am

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Speaker 3: really low on aj Dillon this week and going forward

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Speaker 3: as a result. In similar concept with Antonio Gibson, you

336
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Speaker 3: know I was drafting him in the RB three flex range, thinking,

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Speaker 3: you know, he provided that even when Brian Robinson was healthy.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's the pass catching back. He'll be great

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Speaker 3: in you know, negative game scripts, maybe even leapfrog Brian Robinson,

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Speaker 3: but just it hasn't been there. And you know, last

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Speaker 3: week was the perfect game script for them. You know,

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Speaker 3: the Commander's lost by third and he ran a ton

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Speaker 3: of routes, but he only caught three passes, so I

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Speaker 3: can't trust them, and it doesn't look like he's gonna

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Speaker 3: leap frog Brian Robinson. And even if Brian Robinson this

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Speaker 3: is time, it could be Chris Rodriguez that picks up

347
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Speaker 3: most of the work. So these are two backs that

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Speaker 3: I was admittedly pretty high on as like high upside

349
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Speaker 3: backups entering the season, but the past, you know, a

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Speaker 3: few games, I am really down on both these backs.

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Speaker 2: Gives it and he just couldn't get a gon he

352
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Speaker 2: cut he got. He had five targets and three catches

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Speaker 2: for eleven yard seven yards actually seven yards, three for seven.

354
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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's been an ideal game script for him too,

355
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Speaker 2: just ideal. Yeah, I'm low on Uh, this is gonna

356
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Speaker 2: be funny. I'm low on Raheem Moster and Devon h

357
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Speaker 2: It's listen. Uh, you know last week was the week

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Speaker 2: you know, congratuations if he started one on both of

359
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,159
Speaker 2: those guys. I mean, obviously most of it was a

360
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Speaker 2: must start. But uh, this week, you know, the ECR

361
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Speaker 2: on most of his RB seven and the ECR and

362
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Speaker 2: H eight is twenty four. Now I get it. You

363
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Speaker 2: know they're coming off what the historic four touchdown games

364
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 2: each but Miami running backs had fifty three touches in

365
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Speaker 2: Week three. That is about double what you would have

366
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Speaker 2: in a normal game. And for some context, the Bills

367
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 2: against running backs have only given up sixty four touches

368
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Speaker 2: in three games to back opposing backfield. So like this

369
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,960
Speaker 2: was just a massive outlier in terms of their usage.

370
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Speaker 2: And you know, even if you like, let's say you

371
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Speaker 2: like moster At, I still think RB seven is too high.

372
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:36,159
Speaker 2: But there's no way you can prodict a chain just

373
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Speaker 2: seventeen spots after him, especially in this kind of matchup.

374
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Speaker 2: You know, if it was a bad run defense or

375
00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:44,000
Speaker 2: something like that. But the Bills really they gave up that.

376
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,800
Speaker 2: They give up like one big run to Resall, one

377
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 2: big run to Brian Robinson. But it hasn't been like

378
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,200
Speaker 2: a consistent like, oh this is just a terrible run

379
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 2: defense or anything like that. And again, if they are

380
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 2: a threat to get ahead in games, and that would

381
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 2: make Miami less like we to run the football because

382
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Speaker 2: you know they have to in Tyreek, so they don't

383
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Speaker 2: need to run. So yeah, I think I think both

384
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 2: of these guys are too high. Most Are's still in

385
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Speaker 2: that RB one. You know, top twelve discussion. Han is

386
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Speaker 2: more of an RB three though. You know, obviously he's

387
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Speaker 2: probably going to fill that that Jeff Wilson roll behind

388
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Speaker 2: moster and maybe even leapfrog up at some point. But

389
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Speaker 2: right now, you know, I don't think you can have

390
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Speaker 2: both these guys in the top twenty four against against

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Speaker 2: the Bills, right right.

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Speaker 3: I think you know, people's expectations will probably be a

393
00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 3: bit too lofty. Don't expect another forty point performance from

394
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 3: both these guys. I put a tweet that day Raheemosert

395
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 3: had over one hundred and forty yards and four touchdowns

396
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:41,439
Speaker 3: and wasn't even the high scoring running back on his

397
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Speaker 3: own team.

398
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Speaker 2: That was just incredible, just incredible that that.

399
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Speaker 3: Yeah, they're very tricky to project this week, but like

400
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:52,920
Speaker 3: you said, this is a tougher matchup.

401
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's just like to get two running

402
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 2: backs in the top twenty four, it has to be

403
00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,960
Speaker 2: a very special situation. Yeah, period, And I don't think

404
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 2: this is quite it. That Denver defense probably gonna go

405
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 2: down is a lot worse than people thought coming in

406
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 2: the year. All right, what are you doing for prop.

407
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 3: Well, I'm going right to the Dolphins backfield. Let's go

408
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 3: devine a chang. Actually, I think he said after the game,

409
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 3: it's a chan or something like that. Oh a change,

410
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 3: super cool, So you know, we'll stick with that. But

411
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 3: I think it's a chan. I think he corrected it

412
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 3: for the record, Okay, chan, But let's go total rushing

413
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,919
Speaker 3: and receiving yards for him. Okay, I'm gonna set the

414
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 3: line at sixty seven and a half under.

415
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,359
Speaker 2: I haven't, I mean in the mid fifties. Still, you know,

416
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 2: it's it's still like it like this, it's you know,

417
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 2: coming off this game, it's just like there's, like you said,

418
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 2: there's no way to project it really accurately. Like but

419
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 2: the bottom line is, there's just so many touches to

420
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Speaker 2: go around on a normal game in the backfield. So

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Speaker 2: I think to hit that, you know, you woudn't either

422
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Speaker 2: have to break another big play, which is possible, or

423
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 2: you know, cut into most or even more, which is

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00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 2: also possible. But as of now, I still have Moster

425
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Speaker 2: as the lead back. I still have a chance number two,

426
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Speaker 2: So yeah, I got to go under there.

427
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Speaker 3: Yeah, he is a big play threat. I think that's

428
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 3: the thing with him. He might be more of a

429
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,400
Speaker 3: boom bust play than people realize like he could have,

430
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 3: you know, like a down game and then a big game.

431
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 3: Like I don't think he's gonna be necessarily consistent week

432
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 3: to week, but he has that big play upside. That's

433
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 3: why I think, you know, the Dolphins drafted him, but

434
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 3: I don't think the consistency's going to be there.

435
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean there's it's also possible he leap

436
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 2: frogs most or most it gets hurt, which in that case,

437
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:36,159
Speaker 2: right then then you'd get.

438
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think at this point, like Akhmed, you know,

439
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 3: once he returns, it doesn't matter, like obviously he leap

440
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 3: frogged him. I think even once Jeff Wilson returns, I

441
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 3: don't think that matters. So I think he has solidified

442
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 3: himself at least as the RB two and yeah, most

443
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 3: are you know, he's been an injury risk his entire career,

444
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 3: so if he misses time that maybe that's when we

445
00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 3: start making a chain a chan as you know, like

446
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 3: RB one, RB two fringe, but only in that scenario.

447
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I wonder, you know, Miami might have to

448
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 2: might trade one of these guys. I mean if because

449
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 2: I heard Achmed was having a really good camp and

450
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 2: That's why he was playing early too. So I mean,

451
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 2: maybe you trade Will. I mean, because Mike, what are

452
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 2: you gonna do with Wilson when it comes back? Remember,

453
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 2: this is the team that was supposedly gonna.

454
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:23,959
Speaker 3: Get like Dalvin Cook or like all these Now they

455
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 3: have too many running backs. They gotta trade them away.

456
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's nuts. Okay, let's go to wire receiver. Who

457
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 2: you got tough five?

458
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson, Terry Kill, Keenan, Allen, Stefan Diggs, and AJ Brown.

459
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 2: I got Jefferson Hill, Allen, Davante Adams and Jamar Chies Nice.

460
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 2: Who are him?

461
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 3: So I'm high on Rashid Rice just because I think

462
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 3: he might be on the verge of the breakout we

463
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 3: thought might happen this season. But he saw his routes

464
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 3: run rate break fifty for the first time. It was

465
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 3: fifty one percent. That had mostly to do with you know,

466
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 3: Richie James on ir Kadarius. Tony's banged up, but what's new?

467
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 3: And he had a nice five catch, fifty nine yard game.

468
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 3: And anybody that could potentially emerge as a top two

469
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 3: or three option for Mahomes is worth monitoring. Can't trust

470
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 3: him this week and you know, normal sized leagues, especially

471
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 3: you know, against the Jets. But if I'm in deeper

472
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 3: leagues or just medium sized leagues, I think it's worth

473
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 3: Adam and stash him just in case, because you know

474
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 3: he has a talent. This depth charts wide open, so

475
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 3: he could end up, you know, being a top two receiver,

476
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 3: So monitoring him and Josh Palmer against the Raiders. You know,

477
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 3: obviously Mike Williams unfortunately done for the season, and while

478
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 3: they did add first round pick Quentin Johnson, you know,

479
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 3: to have more depth insurance in case Keenan Allen or

480
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: Mike Williams went down, He's still behind Palmer. He is

481
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 3: a pretty raw prospect, has a ton of upside, but

482
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 3: I just don't think it's there yet. So I think

483
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 3: Palmer is gonna be the wide receiver too right now.

484
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 3: You know, he stepped up big when he died last year.

485
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 3: So the guy to add and use right now is

486
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 3: Josh Palmer. I think if I'm in a deeper league

487
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 3: and you just want to stash somebody with upside, go

488
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: Quentin Johnson. I think that could happen maybe in the

489
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 3: second half of the season, but right now, Josh Palmer

490
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 3: is definitely like a wide receiver three option.

491
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Palmer is that guy. You know, he's

492
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 2: that guy that's gonna have to step up. Johnson's been

493
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,239
Speaker 2: having a bit of a bit of a problem so far,

494
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,639
Speaker 2: Like he's just been struggling. So Palmer, he got that

495
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 2: what did you get? Like a lucky Was it a

496
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 2: touchdown or I remember seeing something tipped into his uh

497
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 2: into his hands in that in that Charger game try

498
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 2: biking game. I think it was touch down. Yeah, but

499
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 2: either it yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah either way. Yeah, like

500
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 2: like Palmer as well. Uh and Rice too, I think

501
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 2: Rice is on the upswing, crowded wide receiver room, but yeah,

502
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 2: I do think he has some time. She's got to

503
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 2: stop dropping passes. Man, every time I look up the

504
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 2: strap in the past, yeah, uh for me, I'm high

505
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 2: on going right back, you know, said I think I'm

506
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 2: pretty sure I said this last week. But to two out, well, Man,

507
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 2: he's the wire receiver thirty six in consensus, he's my

508
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 2: wire receiver twelve. Over the week, he's run around on

509
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 2: ninety four percent of the dropbacks. He's averaging five zero

510
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 2: point four catches for eighty two yards on just under

511
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 2: nine targets per game. He's also getting a carry per game,

512
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 2: and the Coats are giving up the seventh most Fantasy

513
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 2: points two wide receivers. So you know, I know Pooka

514
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 2: is getting all the noise. But to almost had a

515
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 2: second touchdown. I don't know if he stepped out on

516
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 2: that play. He said he stepped out because hiss like

517
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 2: the shadow of his foot went over the outer bounds line.

518
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 2: But it looked like the front of his foot hit

519
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 2: inbounds and that was just a shadow. So you might

520
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 2: have should have had two touchdowns that people would have

521
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 2: probab ranked him higher. But as it stands, yeah, I

522
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 2: think it's just guys that no no worse than a

523
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 2: wide receiver too. Right now in fantasy just the way

524
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 2: to the rams for playing, guys aren't coming off the field,

525
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 2: and you know they probably left some point, left some

526
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: production on the field on Monday night.

527
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm right there with you. I was like plus

528
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 3: twenty against E c R last week. People are sleeping

529
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 3: on two two. Obviously Puka is the top you know target,

530
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 3: but two two has been right there, mainly at the

531
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 3: expense of you know, Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee.

532
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: But this is gonna be fascinating.

533
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 3: But if Cooper Cup returns next week, I think he

534
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 3: could be closer to one hundred percent. Like how we're

535
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 3: going to project this, you know, target share is gonna

536
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 3: be fascinating to me because yeah, like TO two should

537
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 3: still be seeing targets Puoka. Obviously it's gonna be fascinating

538
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 3: to see.

539
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it's rams team like this offense suddenly high

540
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 2: powered offense. We didn't even you know, kind of like

541
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 2: sleeping on it coming into the year, especially once Cup

542
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:46,199
Speaker 2: got heerd. But Sean McVay doing Sean McVay things, Okay,

543
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 2: who are you low on?

544
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 3: So I mean I would just be cautious with Brandon Ayuk.

545
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 3: You know, if he suits up, you know, they he

546
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 3: might be a little bit limited. You know, both Ayuk

547
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 3: and Debo are banged up, so probably don't need them

548
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 3: to beat the Cardinals. I think they might lean on

549
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 3: McCaffrey and Kittle a bit more in this game. Plus

550
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 3: I do for some regression in terms of catch rate.

551
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 3: He has an eighty percent catch rate this year with

552
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 3: a dot at fourteen, So something's got to give there,

553
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 3: And I think you know he's gonna put He's gonna

554
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 3: be pushing wide receiver one value this year when he's

555
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 3: one hundred percent healthy. I don't think that's going to

556
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 3: be this week, so just be careful with them. If

557
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 3: he does suit up, he's more of a high end

558
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 3: wide receiver three for me, at least early in the week.

559
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 3: And the other guy is Michael Gallup. You know, he

560
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: finally had a useful game for Fantasy last week, caught

561
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 3: six balls ninety two yards, but the underlying usage has

562
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 3: still been a concern. You know, he's only seeing a

563
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 3: target on twelve percent of his routes. His a dot

564
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 3: is actually higher this year at twelve point two. You know,

565
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 3: we thought it sound like they were saying they were

566
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 3: going to give more high percentage looks. That hasn't come

567
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 3: to fruition. You know, Brandon Cooks return to action last week,

568
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,719
Speaker 3: and see Lamb had a down game, So I think

569
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 3: Lamb's going to bounce back next week at the expense

570
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 3: of Gallop. So as of now, like Gallup probably needs

571
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 3: you know Cook or Lamb him as time to trust him,

572
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 3: But just because you have the big game, I wouldn't

573
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 3: put him in your lineup. The underlying usage is definitely

574
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:13,479
Speaker 3: a concern still for him.

575
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, definitely, And you know, as Cooks gets healthier, yeah,

576
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 2: you know, it's probably not going to be there for Gallup.

577
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 2: I am low on Drake London. I have a closer

578
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 2: to wide receiver fifties, wide receiver forty in the R.

579
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 2: It's really just you know, you're not projecting this falcon

580
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 2: offense for a ton of passing yards. And you know,

581
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,239
Speaker 2: with the way London has been playing, I mean he's

582
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: had two or fewer receptions in two three games. It's

583
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 2: the consistency is just not there. So it's like you're

584
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 2: banking on him to have a bunch of targets and

585
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 2: actually produced with this low volume pass offense. So uh,

586
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 2: you know, I just there's we still have no bye week,

587
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 2: so I just think there are a lot of a

588
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: lot better receives you could be starting right now and

589
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 2: have to just give it a a wait and see

590
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 2: with with Drake London, because if Pitts is healthy and

591
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 2: Bijon is healthy, it's going to be really tough for

592
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: Pitts and London to be consistent on a weekly basis.

593
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and like if Cordella Patterson returns at some point,

594
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 3: like what plan they have for him. We'll only cut

595
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 3: into these guys more. But this is just the offense

596
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 3: where like elite pass catchers go to die. It's such

597
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 3: a shame that Drake London and Kyle Pitts are on

598
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 3: this team.

599
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 2: All right. Uh, let's see prop Adam Thiewen Adam in

600
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 2: the game because he's been he's been putting up some

601
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 2: numbers recently. And uh, I guess we don't know for

602
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 2: sure if it's going to be Dalton or Young. It's

603
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 2: probably gonna be Dalton. But thewan is thresh off an

604
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 2: eleven catch, one hundred and forty five yard game, So

605
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna set his receiving yardage at let's go forty

606
00:29:58,240 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 2: nine and a half.

607
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 3: Oh damn, it's a bit higher than I wanted. I

608
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 3: was gonna go with the over, not high enough to Yeah, No,

609
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 3: I'm I'm gonna go over.

610
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to bank on.

611
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 3: I want Dalton to get one more start for this

612
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 3: to go over. And Mingo, he's in the concussion program,

613
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 3: very worried that he might miss this week. If he's out,

614
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 3: I would definitely have this a bit higher. So early

615
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 3: in the week I'll just go over here. I think

616
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 3: he has multiple paths to clear this.

617
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: We've got a few of these revenge games. By the way,

618
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 2: he got Calvin Ridley against the Falcons. Oh see you

619
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: in against being against the Vikings. Yeah. As a reminder,

620
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast is presented by bet MGM. Used

621
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629
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638
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: Slash NFL Sean, who you got for tight end's top five?

639
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 3: Travis Kelce, TJ Hawkinson, Mark Andrew's, Darren Waller, and George Kittle.

640
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got Kelsey, Hockins, Andrews, Kittle and then Waller,

641
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 2: so I have same top five pretty much. Who high

642
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 2: on Sam Laporta.

643
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 3: You know, he broke the record for most receptions over

644
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 3: the first three games of their career. You know, I

645
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: was thinking he could be the next TJ. Hawkins have,

646
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 3: but not this soon. But he is definitely there. He's

647
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 3: seeing you know, an eighty percent routes run rate, twenty

648
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 3: six and a half target rate, which is just phenomenal,

649
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 3: and an a dot which I think is ideal for

650
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 3: a tight end right around six. So it's like a

651
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 3: perfect storm for a tight end. He's just outside of

652
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 3: my top five right now, but I think he's there.

653
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 3: I think he's probably gonna be one of the more

654
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 3: consistent tight ends in this range. You know, Kittle might

655
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 3: not be as consistent. Maybe even Darren Waller won't be

656
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 3: as consistent. You know, can't trust daughter or Pits. So

657
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 3: Laporta could be in my rest of season top five

658
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 3: rest of the way. Probably just need to see one

659
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 3: more game, but he seems like one of the safer

660
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 3: bets for four and a half or five receptions a game,

661
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 3: So like I was high on him entering the season,

662
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 3: but like he's blowing my expectations away. So all in

663
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 3: on the part of this week.

664
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's my tight end six, was my tenant six

665
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 2: last week as well. He's just nice. He's getting too

666
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 2: many routes and is producing too much to have him

667
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 2: any lower than that.

668
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 3: And we're not concerned about Jamison Williams return call for help. Yeah, no,

669
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 3: there's another knocks on him, Like is he still going

670
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 3: to be the number two target when Jamison returns?

671
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 2: Yes, I think he's. I mean, which like if anything's

672
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 2: it's more like worry about like Reynolds and all those guys,

673
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 2: because I think Reynolds had a goosegg last week and

674
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 2: Jones saw his playing time go down, So yeah, those

675
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 2: guys are the guys. Yeah, that'll be affected the most.

676
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 2: I am high on fellow rookie Luke Musgrave, So same game,

677
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 2: my tight end ten, He's tightened thirteen did in ECR.

678
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 2: He's been running around on eighty two percent of Jordan

679
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 2: Love's dropbacks, and the Lions are giving up the second

680
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 2: most fantasy points uh two tight ends. So yeah, like this,

681
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 2: like this matchup for musk Grave. Looks like Watson might

682
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 2: still miss another game too, so you know, not not

683
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 2: too worried about the competition for targets. You are just

684
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 2: going to go with the routes, which are generally the

685
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 2: most predictive thing for these tight ends. You know. That's

686
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 2: why the Porta, you know, is kind of on our

687
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 2: radar because he was playing almost every snap. And you

688
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 2: know mus Graves up there too at eighty two percent,

689
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 2: So I like him as the top ten this week.

690
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Lions have allowed six different tight ends to

691
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 3: clear thirty yards nuts in three games.

692
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 2: That's insane. Yeah, this is they do this. They do

693
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 2: this every every so often. I feel like it's like

694
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 2: the Lions, the Cardinals, the Giants, like one of the

695
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 2: things is gonna be the worst against tight ends every

696
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 2: single year. Okay, who are you lo on a tight end.

697
00:34:55,920 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 3: Unfortunately it's Kyle Pitts again. Uh you know, just he

698
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 3: has been one of the most frustrating tight ends since

699
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 3: he's entered the league, not because of his talent, just

700
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 3: the way the Falcons use him. You know, there's top

701
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 3: three potential there for sure. He's averaging a whopping ninety

702
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 3: percent routes run rate, which is solid obviously, but only

703
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 3: seeing a target on sixteen and a half percent of

704
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 3: those routes. And he's still only seeing targets downfield. You know,

705
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 3: he is an eight out of twelve, which you know

706
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,800
Speaker 3: we should only expect around like a sixty three percent

707
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 3: catch rate that far down the field from an average quarterback.

708
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,919
Speaker 3: But you know, Desmond Ritter is below average minus six

709
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 3: percent in terms of cliche completion rate over expected according

710
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 3: to Connection Stats, which is tied for third worst. So

711
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 3: he would need a good quarterback to to really produce

712
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 3: and fantasy, you know, with a twelve eight hot plus

713
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 3: Bijon is commanding targets underneath, so that that removes all

714
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 3: hope that you know, Pitts is going to start seeing

715
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 3: those underneath targets. And like I said, at some point,

716
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:00,439
Speaker 3: Cordell Patterson might get involved, which is all only gonna

717
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 3: take away, you know, a couple more targets to go around.

718
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 3: So unfortunately, you know, Kyle Pitts is more of like

719
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 3: a low end tight end one.

720
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 2: With this kind of usage.

721
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 3: Sure he's gonna have like big games but they're gonna

722
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 3: be every few weeks now, which is just super frustrating

723
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 3: because the talent's there, but we just can't trust him

724
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 3: as a top five tight end right now.

725
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like him and him in London, Like it's

726
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 2: just they're gonna have games, but like when who knows,

727
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 2: and when they don't have big games, it's usually gonna

728
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 2: be pretty bad because it's not like it's not a

729
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 2: normal volume passing offense. I am low on Hunter Henry

730
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 2: compared to eastr He's the tight end twelve and expert

731
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 2: consensus I have him tighten eighteen. Dallas is giving up

732
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 2: the tense fewest points to tight ends. But this is

733
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 2: more just I think. You know, Henry was a product

734
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 2: of that high volume pass game against the Dolphins in

735
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 2: Week one and then he was able to score again

736
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,399
Speaker 2: in Week two, but generally his usage, you know, last

737
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 2: week he ran around on seventy three percent of the dropbacks.

738
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 2: He's still mixing in time with Mike Gieski, Who's who's

739
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 2: getting around fifty percent or more. So I don't think

740
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: Henry is, you know, even though he had two good

741
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: games to start the year, I think he's gonna come

742
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 2: back down to earth and regress a little bit. And

743
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 2: we started to see that last week. So yeah, I

744
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 2: haven't projected for like just over three catches for thirty

745
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 2: seven yards, and then there's not much touchdown equity. Yeah,

746
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 2: this week against Dallas, you know, I have the Patriots

747
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 2: projected in the in the teens against his Dallas defense.

748
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 2: So low on Henry. What are you doing for the

749
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 2: tight end? Prop?

750
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 3: Let's go with Sam Laporta. Like I said, the eighteen

751
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 3: receptions for the first three games is the most ever

752
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 3: by a tight end, five more than the previous tight end.

753
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 3: So he should still have the record after this week

754
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 3: no matter what. But let's go with his receptions. I'm

755
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 3: gonna set it.

756
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 2: At four and a half. That's exactly what I have

757
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 2: it at. I know it's tough. Where's though, Well, let's

758
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 2: see the Packers have given up the fourth most receptions

759
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 2: to tight ends, and what is the point I think

760
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 2: he has.

761
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 3: Does he have five or more in every game? Let's see, Yeah, five,

762
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 3: five and eight high catch rate? His catch right is

763
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 3: the one thing I think. Yeah, so I think like four, Yeah,

764
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:24,439
Speaker 3: I think four and a half is a good line.

765
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 3: Good luck on which side, but yeah, guarantee that's what

766
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 3: his prop's going to be too.

767
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it has to be. Yeah, you can't go

768
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 2: five and a half, but three and a half is

769
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 2: too low. Yeah, exactly, I'll go under. I'll say, I'll say,

770
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 2: you get some yardage, but yeah, I'll say they you know,

771
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,399
Speaker 2: they maybe devote a little more attention to him this week,

772
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 2: so I'll go they have they've only given up one

773
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 2: five catch game, even though they've given up a lot

774
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 2: of catches.

775
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know, Like I don't know if Montgomery

776
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 3: is gonna play, But you know, Gibbs, the restaurant rate

777
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 3: is going up, and I think as that continues to

778
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 3: go up, that could eat in the Laporta. Uh and

779
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 3: you know he has but an eighty two percent catch right,

780
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, I lean under. But you know, betting against

781
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 3: Laporta hasn't won anybody any money yet, so it's tough.

782
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll you know, just just because I have it

783
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 2: right exactly on that, so I'll go under. But yeah,

784
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 2: it's it's close, all right. That's gonna do it. For

785
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 2: our Week four NFL Player Projections episode of the Action

786
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 2: Network podcast presented by bet MGM. For more fantasy content

787
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 2: from Sean and I, be sure to check out our

788
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 2: full Fantasy preview episode, which is out right now over

789
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,759
Speaker 2: on the Fantasy Flex podcast channel. If you're into betting,

790
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,720
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00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:39,439
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792
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:43,799
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795
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:52,439
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