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Speaker 1: Have you thought about owning or buying a vacation property.

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Speaker 1: Would you like a place to take the family to

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Speaker 1: on a lake near the beach or up in the mountains.

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Speaker 1: I have, and I know a lot of our listeners

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Speaker 1: have also. Let's bring in Jonathan Miller, CEO and founder

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Speaker 1: of Miller Samuel, a highly rated data analytics and research

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Speaker 1: firm covering the housing market. He has written a number

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Speaker 1: of pieces on vacation homes, second property, luxury properties, and

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Speaker 1: what's happening in that market. So Jonathan, let's just talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit about what's going on in the second

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Speaker 1: home market, whether it's the luxury market or not. Tell

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Speaker 1: us a little bit about what's going on out there.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, we had coming out of the pandemic,

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Speaker 2: we probably had the biggest second home purchase boom in

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Speaker 2: history as people were coming, you know, sort of re

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Speaker 2: engaging with the outdoors again after the pandemic. And then

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Speaker 2: in the last couple of years we've actually seen a

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Speaker 2: big drop off in second home purchases. Now it's I

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Speaker 2: would describe it as more normalized, where it's more consistent

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Speaker 2: with seven or eight years ago before the pandemic, and

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Speaker 2: comparisons against the last few years are probably unfair to

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Speaker 2: the market.

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Speaker 1: So what's going on then, with the supply of homes

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Speaker 1: for sale? Obviously twenty twenty one, twenty two, a lot

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Speaker 1: of supply got sucked up. As a percentage of average

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Speaker 1: home numbers for sale, that number seems to have plummeted.

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Speaker 1: Has that normalized?

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Speaker 2: Yet? It depends on location. The way I think of

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Speaker 2: it is, we all are seeing a big uptick in supply,

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Speaker 2: but it depends on where the uptick began. You know,

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Speaker 2: did it become begin at a record load number and

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Speaker 2: now it's you know, we have some markets, a lot

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Speaker 2: of markets that are still behind pre pandemic inventory levels,

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Speaker 2: but we have a growing number of markets that are

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Speaker 2: sort of catching up or exceeding. But it is very

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Speaker 2: location specific.

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Speaker 1: The one let thing, Yes, let me take a few guesses.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to guess that we're seeing a big uptick

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Speaker 1: in supply in southern Florida and not as much supply.

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Speaker 1: And let's say the Hampton's or Jersey Shore off of

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Speaker 1: New York, or Newport or any of the vacation destinations

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Speaker 1: off of Boston. That's just my instinct. I'm curious what

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Speaker 1: your data shows.

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Speaker 2: It shows exactly that, you know. And another way to

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Speaker 2: really look at this simplistically is I think of Sunbown

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Speaker 2: versus everybody else. A sunbelt. You know, it's new product

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Speaker 2: can be built faster. You know, the whole moving away,

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Speaker 2: you know, to something cheaper. You know, a cheaper housing market,

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Speaker 2: which tends to be to the south was sort of overdone,

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Speaker 2: and now there's a big difference. Even within South Florida.

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Speaker 2: You look at Miami Dade is really seeing a lot

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Speaker 2: of supply come in significant about fifty percent over the

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Speaker 2: last year up. But then two counties to the north,

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Speaker 2: go Broward and then go Palm Beach County. Palm Beach

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Speaker 2: County is seeing declining inventory. So I don't think there's

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Speaker 2: a correlation with the further south you go, the more

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Speaker 2: inventory is rising. But that seems to be what's actually

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Speaker 2: happening in Florida.

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Speaker 1: Palm Beach kind of reminds me of East Hampton or

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Speaker 1: seg Harbor or something like that. So it's more you know,

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Speaker 1: East end of Long Island. Like, is it fair to

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Speaker 1: say that a lot of parts of places like South

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Speaker 1: Florida just to become victims of their own success. There

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Speaker 1: was such an exodus from California to Texas, from New York,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Connecticut to Florida, that it just seemed to

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Speaker 1: overwhelm the infrastructure and the supply. Fair statement, that's a

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Speaker 1: very fair statement.

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Speaker 2: And then throwing hurricanes on the Gulf side. The Gulf

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Speaker 2: side with you know, has has seen a much faster

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Speaker 2: rise in supply than the ocean side of Florida. And

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Speaker 2: I wonder too if that's part of you know, Canadians

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Speaker 2: tend to gravitate towards the Gulf side, and you know,

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Speaker 2: with the trade war that we're having right now, maybe

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Speaker 2: that's playing into it as well.

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Speaker 1: So we were looking in of all times, January twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty on the Gulf side in places like Saint Petersburg

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Speaker 1: for a winter home, and then the pandemic shut everything.

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Speaker 1: And when everything reopened, I wasn't as surprised about the

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Speaker 1: big increase in home prices as I was the giant

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Speaker 1: increase in things like insurance taxes, HOA fees. It got

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Speaker 1: to the point, wait, if I'm going to spend sixty

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Speaker 1: or eighty or one hundred thousand dollars a year on

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Speaker 1: everything around the house, not actually buying the house, Hey,

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Speaker 1: that pays for a lot of nice vacations. Maybe I

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Speaker 1: don't need to own a place in Florida. I could

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Speaker 1: just visit how significant is the cost structure change in

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Speaker 1: southern Florida? What's going on there? And where else are

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Speaker 1: we seeing that sort of spike in home ownership costs?

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Speaker 2: Right? So, you know when in the old days, when

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Speaker 2: you bought a house and you were worried about the

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Speaker 2: interest rate and the price of the house, uh, the

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Speaker 2: the costs of home ownership. Beyond that, we're sort of

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Speaker 2: a rounding area. You weren't thinking about the cost of insurance,

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Speaker 2: real estate taxes. And what we've been seeing in the

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Speaker 2: last several years is a big jump in not not

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Speaker 2: just the cost, but actually getting coverage in insurance. One thing,

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Speaker 2: you know, when we think about other parts of the

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Speaker 2: country that are sort of struggling, I would I would

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Speaker 2: characterize this as more of a national condition. Now. California

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Speaker 2: as wildfires, the Midwest is tornadoes, and the southeast and

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Speaker 2: eastern seaboard is an inland too is flooding. So there

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Speaker 2: just seems to be this sort of steady rising tide,

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Speaker 2: no pun intended, but of it. And actually the one

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Speaker 2: thing that you know, in all my research about this

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Speaker 2: over the last couple of years, the most expensive uh

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Speaker 2: uh insurance cost relative to home prices is the Midwest.

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Speaker 2: It's not Florida, it's not uh you know, wildfows in California,

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Speaker 2: because housing is so much less expensive in the Midwest,

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Speaker 2: but it's a bigger chunk, it's a bigger, bigger liability

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Speaker 2: or so.

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Speaker 1: We were just in Chicago a week or two ago,

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Speaker 1: and what was so interesting. So I'm in Chicago over

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Speaker 1: year for Thanksgiving, for forever. I always find the Midwest

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Speaker 1: and Chicago in particular, a smaller, more manageable, more rational,

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Speaker 1: much more affordable version of New York City. But a

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Speaker 1: lot of people we spoke to there in Chicago, in Detroit,

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Speaker 1: in Milwaukee, all the Great Lakes, like what we talk

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Speaker 1: about on the East Coast with beach property, Hampton's Fire Islands,

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Speaker 1: Jersey Shore, Delaware, go down the whole list. They all

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Speaker 1: talk about some people have homes on Lake Michigan, or

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Speaker 1: if you're coming from Grand Lake Streams, there's just a

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Speaker 1: run of vacation properties and the prices seem almost reasonable.

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Speaker 1: What are you seeing in the Midwest market for real

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Speaker 1: estate prices?

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Speaker 2: So it's always really dangerous to sort of make a

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Speaker 2: living in the East and then go to the Midwest

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Speaker 2: and look at housing prices, and it's almost entertainment because

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Speaker 2: the affordability, you know, to buy a vacation home and

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Speaker 2: say Wisconsin, north of Chicago where I used to live,

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Speaker 2: you know, is you know, a reasonable but not to locals, right,

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Speaker 2: And my head.

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Speaker 1: Trey in the office after this hole we had a

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Speaker 1: big event in Chicago. He's like, oh my god, I

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Speaker 1: can't believe how reasonable everything is here, Like you and

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Speaker 1: your fiance should move there. The only catches we have

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Speaker 1: to cut your salary forty percent because that's the local wage.

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Speaker 1: So clearly home prices track local median income. I don't

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Speaker 1: remember if it was your research note that talked about

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Speaker 1: or maybe it was Paul Krugman's talked about all New

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Speaker 1: Jersey as one of the densest populations in the country

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Speaker 1: with one of the highest home price in the country

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Speaker 1: but an even higher median income on average. And so

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Speaker 1: it turns out that paying a high price for homes

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey is actually cheaper then an inexpensive home

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Speaker 1: in another part of the country relative to your income.

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Speaker 1: So that really begs the question how significant is local

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Speaker 1: income to vacation properties, lakefront homes and beach houses.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, it's in danger of saying it depends,

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Speaker 2: but it depends.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: I think about a market that that I lived in

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Speaker 2: and cover market like Manhattan, which is known for lots

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Speaker 2: of pidtees, you know, places in the city that people

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Speaker 2: in the suburbs buy homes there. If you look at

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Speaker 2: the median income in Manhattan, it has no bearing on

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Speaker 2: the price of housing because there's such an international and also,

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Speaker 2: you know, affluence that gravitates there. So so the meeting

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Speaker 2: income doesn't really relate. It's you know, it's like, you know,

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Speaker 2: seventy thousand or some you know, you know, and the

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Speaker 2: median home price in Manhattan is about a million two,

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Speaker 2: which it gets you a studio, right, maybe a small

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Speaker 2: one bedroom in a walk up.

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Speaker 1: So since you're mentioning foreign buyers, let's talk about what's

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Speaker 1: going on with the public policy and in particular the dollar.

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Speaker 1: We've seen the dollar full off from its highs recently.

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Speaker 1: You talked about this in a recent research note. What

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Speaker 1: does the strength of the dollar mean for potential buyers

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Speaker 1: of real estate from overseas? And what has let's just

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Speaker 1: call the damage to America the brand the black guy

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Speaker 1: that we sort of see Uncle Sam having. What does

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Speaker 1: that mean for outside purchasers.

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Speaker 2: At least at this point, it's an offset in other words,

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Speaker 2: that we've had periods of time where you know, you know,

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Speaker 2: if you're coming from Europe, you were enjoying a fifty

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Speaker 2: percent discount off the currency play for a US home,

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Speaker 2: and so New York, you know, had a tremendous would

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Speaker 2: have a tremendous surge every time the dollar got weaker.

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Speaker 2: We had periods I want to say two thousand and six,

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Speaker 2: two thousand and seven where I called it the Irish

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Speaker 2: Carpenter syndrome where you had sort of, you know, people

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Speaker 2: of modest means in Ireland getting fifty percent discounts on

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Speaker 2: million dollar condos in midtown.

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Speaker 1: Well about the other coast, what about Japan, China, Korea,

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Speaker 1: It's Asia buying San Francisco, La Joia, San Diego, and

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Speaker 1: even across the border of Vancouver.

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Speaker 2: Well, a big driver is access to university, high quality universities,

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Speaker 2: and so the Asian demand, that's one of the amenities

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Speaker 2: they're really looking for, you know, sort of over the

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Speaker 2: long run. The problem with the weaker currency or the

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Speaker 2: weaker dollar is that the state of immigration and the

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Speaker 2: sort of what I call the tariff tantrums and the

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Speaker 2: uncertainty that is abound at the moment has essentially at

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Speaker 2: least you know, in my anecdotal observation at this moment

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Speaker 2: is you know, it's offsetting the benefit of a discount

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Speaker 2: that we're not seeing the influx of international demand that

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Speaker 2: we normally would expect during this this type of dollar environment.

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Speaker 1: So, since you mentioned the tariff tantrum that seems to

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Speaker 1: be keeping mortgage rates elevated. Doesn't really matter to luxury

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Speaker 1: properties three four five million dollars. Those are mostly cash

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Speaker 1: deals I've learned from in your research notes. But what

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Speaker 1: about you know, younger folks in their not in their

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Speaker 1: twenties and thirties, but perhaps in their late thirties and

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Speaker 1: forties who want a vacation property. They're not spending tens

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Speaker 1: of millions of dollars. They're spending something a little more reasonable,

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Speaker 1: but they're probably putting ten twenty thirty percent down and

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Speaker 1: putting a mortgage on it. What is these elevated mortgage

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Speaker 1: rates doing to that market?

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Speaker 2: So it's restraining it. The way to think of rates

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Speaker 2: is they're sort of you know, stuck at sort of

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Speaker 2: you know, just below seven percent on a fixed rate.

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Speaker 2: When you when you're looking at a second home purchase,

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Speaker 2: you probably want to add a half to three quarters

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Speaker 2: of a percent to the rate of a primary residence.

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Speaker 1: So it's more for a second home mortgage than a

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Speaker 1: primary home.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, And the underwriting is a little tougher as well.

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Speaker 2: There's ratios that are a little bit tighter, you know,

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Speaker 2: And that's the way to think of it. However, you know,

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Speaker 2: you know, if you're looking for like a break in pricing,

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Speaker 2: you know, pricing now with the uncertainty and the rates

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Speaker 2: being stuck at an elevated level, the rate of price

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Speaker 2: growth is starting, you know, has been really over the

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Speaker 2: last few months, starting to ratchet down a bit.

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Speaker 1: So it's plateauing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say plateauing is probably a fair term

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Speaker 2: in some markets, even slipping a bit. We still have

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Speaker 2: markets that are rising, but those tend to be primary

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Speaker 2: housing markets, like if you're in New York City. Metro

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Speaker 2: Long Island grew ten percent last year, you know, big numbers.

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Speaker 1: So let's since we mentioned the non luxury second home.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk demographics a little bit. What about millennials and

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Speaker 1: Gen z are they remember during the twenty tens, they

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Speaker 1: stared clear from the initial housing market. They were forming

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Speaker 1: households at a very low rate. Along the same time

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Speaker 1: as builders had kind of pivoted post crisis to multifamily

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Speaker 1: and away from single family homes. Not only are those

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Speaker 1: generations now buying first homes, some of them, I hesitate

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Speaker 1: say many of them, but some of them are looking

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Speaker 1: at second homes. How do you think about demographics and

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Speaker 1: where these folks look at a vacation property.

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Speaker 2: So you're right, we're absolutely seeing the millennials first just

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Speaker 2: you know, push into home ownership, not just home ownership,

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Speaker 2: but second home owner ownership. If you think about this

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Speaker 2: at a top sort of at a top level, one

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Speaker 2: of the things that's been changing with the baby boomer

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Speaker 2: generation is buying homes or giving what the kids would

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Speaker 2: wait until their parents passed you. We were seeing a lot,

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Speaker 2: you know, like twenty thirty years.

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Speaker 1: Of DeVos is the technical term. You're making the gift

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Speaker 1: while you're alive, to.

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Speaker 2: Glow the basket and the glow right, and and that's

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Speaker 2: a thing and just sort of you know, the quick

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Speaker 2: observation is in the eighties when I started up my company,

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Speaker 2: it was very common for, you know, in Manhattan, for

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Speaker 2: parents to buy like a studio apartment sort of the

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Speaker 2: size of a hotel room for their kids that were

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Speaker 2: going to college in that and it would become a

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Speaker 2: piedotar for the family down the road. Now they're buying

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Speaker 2: three four five million dollar apartments, and as opposed to

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Speaker 2: little efficiency type places, we're seeing a much bigger price

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Speaker 2: tag on this, as you know and I and that

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Speaker 2: is giving these this generation sort of a jump start.

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Speaker 1: So you're kind of employing I don't want to say

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Speaker 1: fractional ownership or co ownership. It's multiple generations of a

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Speaker 1: family using the same second property. But what about those

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Speaker 1: sort of things We've seen business models of fractional ownership,

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Speaker 1: or I've heard stories of close friends two or three

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Speaker 1: families co owning a property. Is this a real trend

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Speaker 1: or is this still a rounding error?

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Speaker 2: To me, it's more of a rounding error. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's an interesting storyline, but I'm not seeing that it's

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Speaker 2: happening on the margin more than anything else. What's really

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Speaker 2: interesting in the world of airbnb and investor ownership. You know,

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Speaker 2: lenders there's a higher rate for that, right, a higher

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Speaker 2: mortgage rate if you're financing. But you know, to my understanding,

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Speaker 2: you can as long as you on a second home,

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Speaker 2: as long as you control the house, meaning you don't

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Speaker 2: have tenants in it for more than six months, you

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Speaker 2: can claim it as a second residence.

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Speaker 1: What does that do for you tax wise if it's

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Speaker 1: a second residence, as always do a business.

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Speaker 2: That I don't know, you know, every situation is so different,

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Speaker 2: but I know that with with airbnbs, if you're using

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Speaker 2: a professional manager to manage it for you, then it's

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Speaker 2: considered an investor property. It's it's not. And you know

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Speaker 2: we've had like in the southwestern US, you know, there's

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Speaker 2: a massive oversupply of Airbnb properties that are not sort

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Speaker 2: of covering the monthly costs. So I'm not necessarily encouraging that.

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Speaker 1: There's going to be some supply coming on the market.

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Speaker 1: When people say, hey, this just isn't worth the headache,

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Speaker 1: is that the implication?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that that you know, I'm not getting the

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Speaker 2: returns that I that I thought I would get. You know,

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Speaker 2: because everybody had the same idea at the same time,

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Speaker 2: there's certainly a place for it, but I think it's

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Speaker 2: been a little bit over overused. And you know, the

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Speaker 2: other thing is, and you know, when we think about

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Speaker 2: Airbnb versus being an investor, a pure investor in renting

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Speaker 2: it out for you know, for six months or a year,

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Speaker 2: is that you don't get to use the property right

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Speaker 2: and let you know, And and that's been one of

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Speaker 2: the selling points of Airbnb as a you know, as

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Speaker 2: a landlord. And then the other thing is that generally,

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Speaker 2: you know, when you look at their data, they generate

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Speaker 2: about two and a half times the rent per square

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Speaker 2: foot of a one year lease, and some even generate

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Speaker 2: more like one fine stay as a sort of luxury Airbnb,

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Speaker 2: and it's like three times.

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Speaker 1: Rentals are more expensive than longer term rentals. Yes, so

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Speaker 1: let's I think everybody knows what are the super hot destinations,

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Speaker 1: but I know the super hot vacation home destinations. But

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Speaker 1: I know, you crunch a lot of data. What do

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Speaker 1: you see as sort of up and coming? What do

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Speaker 1: you see as hot that are probably going to surprise

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Speaker 1: most people who pay attention to real estate.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think if New Hampshire and from hot, which

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Speaker 2: isn't really a.

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Speaker 1: Or a ski ski location.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's probably my my built in bias for going

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Speaker 2: north when the kids are young for every vacation and

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Speaker 2: not south. But there just seems to be especially probably

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Speaker 2: more New Hampshire than Vermont, a tremendous at least in

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Speaker 2: the northeast. There was a from the pandemic through now

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Speaker 2: there was a tremendous boom in New Hampshire housing because

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Speaker 2: of the second home phenomenon. What's really interesting something that

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Speaker 2: I hadn't paid much attention to until the last couple

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Speaker 2: of years, is with the whole push for rto you

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Speaker 2: return to office, some people that are buying second homes

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Speaker 2: really want to be cognizant of their employers', you know,

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Speaker 2: future policies on how often you have to be in

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Speaker 2: the office, because.

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Speaker 1: I know I could take a cannonball from West Hampton

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Speaker 1: into Manhattan and it's marginally longer than my normal commute

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Speaker 1: into the city. But it raises an interesting question, how

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Speaker 1: has the rise of the remote work, work from home

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Speaker 1: and the return to office, how is that impacting buyer

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Speaker 1: preferences for vacation homes and where they're located.

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Speaker 2: So there was a word that somebody I was giving

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Speaker 2: a presentation, you know, right after the sort of dark

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Speaker 2: days of the pandemic, and I remember a real estate agent,

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Speaker 2: you know, I was trying to describe that, you know,

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Speaker 2: people moving to a second home market because they could

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Speaker 2: work remotely. I called it co primary basically it was

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Speaker 2: a co primary residence. So what people what I found,

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Speaker 2: people coming out of a pandemic were looking for quality

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Speaker 2: of schools, if they had a young family. You know,

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Speaker 2: they were looking at things that you normally don't consider internet,

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Speaker 2: you know, quality, things that you normally only don't consider

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Speaker 2: when you're buying a second home. The hall day I

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Speaker 2: would be about second home is to get away from

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Speaker 2: it all. But that's been sort of co opted by

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Speaker 2: the need to work or the desire to reduce commuting

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Speaker 2: or you know, you know who doesn't like to maybe

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Speaker 2: work in their pajamas.

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Speaker 1: Right, So, how would you recommend, given all of the apps,

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Speaker 1: all of the data, all of the things that are

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Speaker 1: out there, someone shopping for a vacation property, how should

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Speaker 1: they be using an app like let's say Zillow or

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Speaker 1: redfin in order to help them find a vacation property

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Speaker 1: they really want to own.

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Speaker 2: Right, So, you know, the apps make it all accessible pictures.

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Speaker 2: You know, you can see lots of information, but this

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Speaker 2: sounds old school. But once you have that information, you

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Speaker 2: know you have you know, you've looked at a you know,

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Speaker 2: online a dozen properties that sort of you know, make

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Speaker 2: sense to you. You really need to see an agent,

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Speaker 2: you know, you need to talk to a human being,

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Speaker 2: you know, and someone that's a local expert in a market,

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Speaker 2: which is a whole other thing which you can through

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Speaker 2: these apps figure out, you know, does their name pop

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Speaker 2: up all over the place, and have them talk you

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Speaker 2: through it if there's a moment in your life that

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Speaker 2: you need handholding, even though you think you know everything.

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Speaker 2: I think it's home buying you do, and you know

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Speaker 2: all the sort of stories while they're just trying to

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Speaker 2: sell you out. Yeah they're trying to sell you a house,

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Speaker 2: but they're also they're also a wealth of information and

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Speaker 2: you can't get that online.

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Speaker 1: Huh. Really really interesting stuff. So final question in two parts,

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Speaker 1: what sort of advice would you give somebody who asks, Hey,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking to buy a luxury property in a hot area.

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Speaker 1: And what advice would you give to a millennial someone

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Speaker 1: in their late thirties or forties, Hey, we'd love to

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Speaker 1: have some reasonable vacation property.

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Speaker 2: What do you tell those folks? So the first is

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Speaker 2: incredibly obvious. There's so much information at your fingertips in

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Speaker 2: terms of understanding the cost the additional mortgage expense if

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Speaker 2: you're going that route. To think about the equity that

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Speaker 2: you have in your existing primary residence, if you have one.

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Speaker 2: You know, right now, we're you know, basically looking at

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Speaker 2: record or near record home equity because of the price

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Speaker 2: growth that we've seen over the last five seven years.

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Speaker 2: And maybe that's a financing vehicle or an acquisition vehicle

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Speaker 2: for your purchase.

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Speaker 1: Certainly down the payment you could borrow from your home,

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Speaker 1: even though it will have to be disclosed to the bank.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, you know, and you know banks. You know listen,

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Speaker 2: if you have a boatload of equity in your home,

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Speaker 2: you know it's you know, I see this quite a

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Speaker 2: bit where people use that to buy a smaller home,

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Speaker 2: a second home.

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Speaker 1: And you know, we as we've seen in the past,

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Speaker 1: leveraging up your primary residence to buy a luxury property.

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Speaker 1: How could that ever go wrong?

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Speaker 3: Right right, right right exactly, you know, and and the

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Speaker 3: sort of saving grace to that, unlike during the financial

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Speaker 3: crisis is that credit conditions remain tight, so lenders aren't

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Speaker 3: just giving away.

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Speaker 2: Loans. If you have a pulse or foger mirror like

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Speaker 2: we had during the financial crisis, it's actually a thing.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're actually doing their due diligence and.

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Speaker 1: Doing their jobs.

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Speaker 2: Go figure, that's a crazy concept. It's kind of a

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Speaker 2: crazy concept. But let me refocus you.

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Speaker 1: Let me refocus you on the luxury question, because I

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Speaker 1: know you bought a property not too long ago. I

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Speaker 1: bought a property not too long ago, and I was

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Speaker 1: I learned from your experience. I was completely frustrated by

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Speaker 1: people making all cash offers for over the asking price,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, I can't believe we lost another house.

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Speaker 1: I thought we were in. So someone comes to you

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Speaker 1: and says, I'm doing pretty well. I got a nice

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Speaker 1: bonus this year. We'd love to get a vacation property,

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Speaker 1: and we're not.

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Speaker 2: We're looking over.

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Speaker 1: Two million dollars. We're not going to go crazy, but

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Speaker 1: we have a decent budget. What advice do you give

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Speaker 1: somebody like that.

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Speaker 2: Well, the first thing is, you know, if you're in

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Speaker 2: a housing market with limited inventory New York Metro, the

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Speaker 2: share of bidding worth of transactions is in the forty

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Speaker 2: ish percent, meaning that forty percent of the closings the

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Speaker 2: buyer paid over ask. That's a reality.

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Speaker 1: Still twenty twenty five, that's going on.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, it is not what it was six months ago.

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Speaker 2: Is fifty more than fifty percent in the New York

437
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 2: metro area, you know, outside of the city. The city

438
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 2: isn't seeing that city is a much lower number. But

439
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: but that's sort of the reality. But then you know,

440
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 2: if you go to other markets, like we were talking

441
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: about the Sun Belt, you know that that's almost non existent.

442
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: I just still think that the sellers are embedded with

443
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 2: sort of a bravado that you know, is still you know,

444
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 2: was built up during the pandemic. And I also think

445
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 2: that buyers are sort of have a bravado that they're

446
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 2: going to get the most amazing deal, and so that

447
00:29:56,080 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 2: the gap between them, you know, is a lesson and

448
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 2: it takes the parties a while to you know, to

449
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 2: sort of meet halfway. Both have to sort of capitulate

450
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: to the actual market conditions. And part of what's happened

451
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 2: things have happened so quickly, just with the tariffs and

452
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 2: the confusion, I have this sort of cocumyey theory that

453
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: came up out of you know, the you know, when

454
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 2: we think about tariff policy having foot flopped at least

455
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 2: fifty times, there's this uncertainty that we're sort of all

456
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: living with, and in some ways, that sort of chaos

457
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 2: or uncertainty as it relates to housing becomes a constant

458
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 2: as opposed to this new thing. It's sort of, you know,

459
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: it's a reality, and if you're in the housing market,

460
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 2: you have to be sort of aware that there is

461
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 2: a chaos to it still and don't be afraid of it.

462
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: So to wrap up those people searching for a vacation property,

463
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 1: a lake house, a beach house, a mountain house, we've

464
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 1: seen some uptick in the amount of supply, and perhaps

465
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: in some areas prices have stopped going up, at least

466
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 1: not going up as aggressively as they have been. But

467
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 1: be aware it's very regional, it's very geographic specific. There

468
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: is a demand for more of these properties, especially from

469
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 1: millennials and soon gen z.

470
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 2: Keep your eye on what's.

471
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: Going on, get informed, and work with a local expert

472
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: to help find your dream vacation property. I'm Barry Redolts,

473
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloombergs at the Money