WEBVTT - Surveillance: Trump's Strategy With Giuliani 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.480 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.360 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. Rudy 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:30.760 Giuliani is a hundred seventh mayor of New York out 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:33.479 of Brooklyn by way of Garden City South. He is 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:36.880 widely credited with law in order at a different time 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:40.360 and place for a more fractious New York City. He's 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:42.599 gone on to some success. He's going on to a 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:45.440 lot of debate as well. We greet him here at 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:49.320 seventies six years old and well preserved. Rudy Giuliani, I 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:51.560 gotta get right to it. On Fox the other night. 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:55.400 You make national headlines with a lot of coughing as well. 0:00:55.920 --> 0:01:01.080 How are you and have you had a test recently? Well, 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:02.880 let me start with the good news. Year. I had 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:07.480 a test recently the day of actually the day of 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:10.840 that time that I was coughing. I coughed twice actually, 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:13.720 and I was clearing my throat. I had a test 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:16.840 maybe two hours earlier. It came back yesterday and I'm negative. 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:19.640 That's the second one I've had since I was with 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:22.080 the group in the White House that unfortunately most of 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:25.800 them came down with it. I feel very bad for them. 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:28.680 I almost feel a little guilty, I guess, but uh 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:30.720 I was one of the few, along with Jared and 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:35.360 Ivanka that didn't. But so far I don't. And I'll 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:37.200 go back and get tested again on Friday, and then 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:39.960 I'll be out of the woodside. I mean, you've got 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:43.200 to be very positive about it. Also, I'm not. I'm 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:44.800 not that nervous about it. I know that if it 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:47.080 does happen, I know exactly what to take. My doctor 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:50.880 has already prescribed hydroxy chloroquin, which I'm taking every day 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:56.279 now for five days as a profilactor. He's a doctor 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:58.880 prescribed that to you. You told the doctor you're gonna 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:01.800 take this controversial. Oh no, the doctor has treated. The 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:06.320 doctor has treated to thousand, five hundred patients who had 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:08.520 this illness, believe it or not, a kind as a genius. 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:11.919 He invented as a LINKO protocol, and he's lost only 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:15.480 two patients. Roody, you are the personal confidant to the President. 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:18.760 He's tweeted twice this morning. He is in recovery. He 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:21.000 wants to get back to the Oval office and work. 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:23.480 Have you spoken to him in the last twenty four 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:26.440 hours and what are you going to advise him to 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:31.000 get this campaign back on the rails. Well, I mean 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:33.360 what he's doing, which is he's got his sorry gets 0:02:33.360 --> 0:02:37.639 out all over the country, making speeches, making talks. He 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:42.040 is uh, he's communicating from the White House, communicating what 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:44.040 he has to be from the White House, and as 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:46.280 soon as he can, he'll he'll be back out on 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:50.720 on the road himself. But he's got something like five 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:52.880 hundred sorry gets in all different parts of the country, 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:57.120 particularly in the key battleground states, who are speaking for him. 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:00.560 I'm going to go to interrupted. Look, Mike Pence has 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:04.200 the most important vice presidential debate tonight. You and Mike 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:08.079 Pence have the president's ear. What are you telling him 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:10.800 and what is Mike Pence gonna do tonight to get 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:14.680 the campaign on the track to get the marginal voter 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:19.960 that the president has clearly lost. He hasn't really lost it. 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:23.040 You're reading polls that that were the same polls he 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:25.880 was behind by. If I take you back four years, 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:30.000 we were three days after the Billy bush Uh revelations, 0:03:30.000 --> 0:03:32.360 and he was being countered out at this point, and 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:35.680 he was about eighteen points behind, seventeen points behind. So 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:38.640 I mean, I I understand what's wrong with the polls. 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:43.040 They over sampled Democrats. Uh, there's anywhere anywhere near a 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:45.680 five to six point differential in favor of Trump. That's 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:49.400 not there because you don't measure enthusiasm. His enthusiasm level 0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:54.000 is still three times Bidens the Biden voter, half of 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.680 them of voting, you know, just because the Democrats, the 0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:59.160 other half of voting had a hatred for Trump. The 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:02.800 Trump voters voting for because they love him and because 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:05.600 they realize he's been one of the most consequential presidents ever. 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.680 And and they are very afraid of a socialist state 0:04:10.480 --> 0:04:15.600 because they believe that Biden is impaired and not able 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:20.000 to really handle the Come on, Rudy forces Rudy John 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:22.120 Farrell wants to get in here. Do you see evidence 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:26.280 that the former vice president is impaired? Oh? Absolutely, what 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:28.520 don't you present? Not only that, I've had doctors look 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:30.600 at him, and I've done a podcast on it. Rudy 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:33.359 Giuliani's common Sense dot Com go look at it. The 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:37.000 two doctors will compare speeches. Joe Biden gave five years ago. 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:40.080 Which species he's giving now? He loses his train of 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:43.520 thought in the middle of a sentence, So do I, 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:46.919 John Farrell? J No, you know, Oh, come on, I 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.320 lose my train of thought on an hourly basis, John, 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:53.800 I pledge allegiance. Pledge allegiance to the flag in the 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:56.159 United States of America and to the Republic for which 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:59.880 it stands, One nation under God, indivisible with liberty and justice. 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:03.000 Roll now, Joe Biden, I pledge allegiance to the United 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:07.159 States underguard John, John about he couldn't how about he 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:10.320 couldn't get those aren't listen? Listen, listen to me. Go 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:12.400 get the g Let's not even argue about it. Go 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:15.000 get ds M five. You know what that is? Ds 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:19.360 M five. You know it's the psychiatrist's handbook. Go look 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:21.640 at the ten symptoms of dimension. He's got eight of them. 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:27.640 One of them is was to train numbers three oh 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:30.200 three oh three, three oh three oh three. Oh No, 0:05:30.279 --> 0:05:33.520 he doesn't remember it. John doesn't know. He doesn't remember 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:36.839 it because he has dementia. It's a disease. It's as 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:43.000 he doesn't have it. Honestly, we're talking about something that 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:50.480 is peripheral. Honestly, the American people the chance he's disgraceful. 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:56.480 It's please please cutting me off in the middle. Honestly, 0:05:56.720 --> 0:05:59.479 you are being you are being obstructive. I am talking 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:03.240 about facts. I'm talking about a psychiatric textbook. You don't 0:06:03.240 --> 0:06:06.240 even know. You don't want the American people to hear 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:09.120 that the guy running for president has an illness. It 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:12.919 is clear, it's obvious. Go read D S M five, 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:17.320 look for the symptoms of dementia. He's got eight of them. 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:20.560 And don't tell me. That is the truth. I know 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:22.960 it's uncomfortable for you, but it's the truth. He's also 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:28.800 a big crook. What guy thing through? Rudy Rudio. Don't 0:06:28.800 --> 0:06:30.960 talk to me in that game. Don't you do? Not 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.240 talk to me in that in that tone. Match you, 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:36.800 dani As if what I'm saying isn't worthy of consideration 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:39.040 to ask you a question. I'm just here to ask 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:43.600 you a question on the medical state of the former 0:06:43.680 --> 0:06:46.320 Vice President Joe Biden. Let's focus. Let's focus on the 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:49.080 three point five million. Let's focus on the three point 0:06:49.080 --> 0:06:51.360 five million from one of the close friends of Putin 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:55.000 in Russia that went to his son suffering from drug addiction. 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:59.840 Why would you pay three point Why did China pay 0:06:59.880 --> 0:07:03.000 the Sun thirty million? The Communist Party of China? Can 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:05.000 we talk about the things that you don't talk about 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:08.680 the things that you hide American people. We've agreed to 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:11.640 do an interview, yes, not a monologue. Do you want 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:14.880 to let me ask some questions? No? No, I've agreed 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:16.360 to come on so that I can tell the truth. 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:19.360 I didn't come on to be doing an interview. Mr 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:21.840 Pharaoh is going to ask you a question, because that's 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:23.840 what we do here, ask me question to ask you 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:26.360 a question of the former mayor of New York City. 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:28.720 But you can't stop me if you don't like what 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:32.440 I'm saying, Rudy Well not just want to focus the 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:35.239 interview a little bit, madic Lani. You have directed scrip 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:38.400 preparation with the president for if you can answer to 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:41.920 talk about the debates Governor Christie? Now, why don't we 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.760 talk about Why don't we talk asident going talked about? 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:51.520 Absolutely not. We can tell you let me finish the 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:55.480 answer finished. You haven't even let me complete the question. 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:59.400 Let me let's do that. Wait, the complete the question, 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:04.720 the fair one. I've been asking a question about the debates, sir, 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:08.080 so let's start there. I'm not interested in getting combative 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:11.480 with you. The debates which you had direct involvement in 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:15.360 to prepare the president for Governor Christy said the president 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:18.200 was too hots What did you learn from those debates? 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:23.080 I learned that the president has to do that when 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:27.400 he's debating the moderator and Joe Biden, and when for 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:31.680 for months the media has been covering up facts the 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:34.960 American people have to know about Joe Biden, about his 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:38.959 incredible history his and his families of taking money from 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:43.040 countries like Iraq, countries like Ukraine, countries like Russia, and 0:08:43.080 --> 0:08:45.520 basically getting thirty million or more from the Communist Party 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:47.920 of China with which his son has been a partner 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:50.600 for the last four years. The American people don't know 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:54.960 that because those questions aren't asked, those things are suppressed. 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:57.440 The reason they don't know that Joe Biden is demented 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:00.000 is because you cut off those parts of his interviews 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.040 when he loses his train of thought, as he did 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:05.480 twice the other night. So that's my answer to the question. 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:09.079 Next question, We appreciate your time. Thank you very much 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:19.040 for joining us today, said cell Phony than the former 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:22.599 math New York City, the Democratic very much. John A 0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:29.400 disremarkable Tom Kane, It is remarkable to see this John 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:33.280 after the State of the City. I have the clearest memories, 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:37.160 way way back pre Giuliani of getting out near the 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:40.480 Port Authority into what was, you know, the romance of 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:42.959 it now of a tougher New York City. But it's 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:48.120 amazing what this guy accomplished into those particularly younger how 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:51.200 different he is now as we just witnessed uh In. 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:54.920 As you correctly said, John of monologue, is well, Lisa, 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:57.199 you're still with us? Did you survive? That is a 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:00.760 native New Yorker. Honestly, the one thing I wanted to 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:03.640 ask him as he said that it doesn't worry him 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.800 that much getting the virus. And my key question is 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:09.160 this the new tactic that the virus just isn't that 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:10.840 big of a deal. Is that the message from the 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:13.480 White House That seems to be what President Trump was saying. 0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:15.640 I don't think we're getting a very clear answer, and 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:18.760 that medical professional is pushing back. I do wonder though, 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:21.440 is that the message John, I you know what's so important? 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:24.520 And what Lisa says that that insight is the President saying, well, 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:28.000 maybe I'm immune. John It was such a different tone 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:32.840 from Prime Minister Johnson, Wasn't it? What an interview? Why 0:10:32.840 --> 0:10:34.960 aren't we talking about the elephant in the room? I mean, 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:37.480 come on, that was just absolutely ridiculous in the last 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:41.120 ten minutes, Tom, absolutely ridiculous. Understand. Josh wind Groves with 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:45.319 US Now Bloomberg News, White House Reporter, Josh. Fantastic to 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:47.600 catch up with you, sir, Thanks for joining us today. 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:50.640 Let's try and focus the debate. Very difficult to focus 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:53.560 the debate. If an individual that is helping you prepare 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:57.600 for that debate conducts himself in that manner, how on 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:00.200 earth will this debate shape up? On October fifth? It's 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:05.320 in Miami, Florida. I mean, I'm a bit at a 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:08.000 loss for words. I guess I would say that Rudy 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:14.360 has been dieting on the same sort of uh feed 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:18.520 of misinformation that the President has for since sime Um 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:24.120 and they're convinced that there is conspiracy going on ways 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:28.560 and I think you've learned a little bit of that. Um. Look, 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.679 you know, I I was some news and also was 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:35.880 it he's onto droxychlor quin as as a preventative measure 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:37.920 after he sat next to Chris Christie for a few days. 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:40.280 Chris Christie, of course, has come down with the virus 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:45.959 UH and checked himself into hospital. Uh Is issued a 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:48.880 point in warning for that drug, essentially thinking as the 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:53.040 emergency youth authorized use authorization. So, um, you know, but 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.080 outed it? So I guess that to you. But but 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:59.160 Rudy sure seemed upset. I don't know, John, you don't 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.040 have that effect on me normally, but you know, there's 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:06.360 always tomorrow. What is so important here, Josh is we 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:09.680 saw the president come out of a very close managed 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:12.880 theater into that first debate, and all of us, whatever 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:18.040 our politics, saw the responsive performance of that debate. And 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:23.040 now we see Mayor Giuliani coming out of the convenience 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:26.520 and comfort of the bubble, particularly as personified by as 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:30.880 many conversations with a large family of Fox properties. Fine, 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:35.960 can this president, from your reporting go outside the bubble 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:40.040 to speak to marginal voters that don't buy what we 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.800 just heard from the hundred and seventh mayor? He has 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.120 not ever shown interest in doing that. And part of 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:48.600 the collision course of this election has been the president 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:51.200 and people around him coming out of their sort of 0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:56.120 Fox News orbit and you know, engaging with other media, 0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:58.640 and it often ends up like this. And we saw 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:02.400 it with that town hall that ABC ran, what was 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:05.560 it three weeks ago, George Stepanopolis and Trump got a 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:08.800 lot of questions about from people on handling the virus, 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:12.359 downplaying the virus, things that people around him have declined 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:14.560 to raise with him, right, and so was sort of 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:17.640 a bubble popping a little bit for him. Now, the 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.200 President continues to believe that there is a silent majority 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:23.800 out there backing him. But I mean, pull after pull 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:27.360 after pull, don't show it. In particular, it looks like 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.240 he's about to get clovered among women voters. We're talking 0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.800 by twenty points to the poll showed over thirty points 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:39.640 gap among women voters yesterday. So you know, honestly, like 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.280 I guess, you know, we'll know it I November a third, 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.600 which reality is correct, But but some days it just 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:48.600 feels like everyone's looking at totally different song sheets. Josh. 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:51.840 There's also a question if this is the new message 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:55.000 out of the White House, that people are overplaying the virus, 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:58.360 that the pandemic isn't that serious? Is there an audience 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:00.960 for that view? Are there a lot of voters who 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:03.800 find that to resonate with them and want life to 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:05.320 just go on and are willing to take the risk? 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:08.880 I mean there are, but they're the same voter based 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:11.640 that the president has. I mean pull up to pull up. 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:14.160 The poll shows that people believe that Trump doesn't take 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:17.400 it the virus seriously and have that they want more action, 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:19.680 and particularly on Congress, and we saw the President blow 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.240 up the stimulus talks and then waffle back on forth 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.920 and on Twitter throughout the night. Um, you know that 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.000 the president the people think Biden would be better uh 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:30.760 under pulling to manage the virus like pull out to 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.280 pull up the poll shows. So you know, I think 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:35.080 that any day that Donald Trump spent talking about the 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:38.840 pandemic as the law station campaign, our international audience particularly 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:41.800 just got a window into a segment of the of 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:45.000 the President's support there with Mayor Giuliani and of course 0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:48.560 you know the heat the firm ut Fermat rather of 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:52.160 those that are committed to Donald Trump. That's fine, but 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:56.120 how does all this redound over to the Senate races? 0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:59.120 I know, you're a White House reporter. But what does 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:04.280 this tension, particularly tension of conspiracy and ill will and 0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:08.080 almost criminal intent of Democrats, what does that mean to 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:14.040 the many Senate races? Um, Well, the sort of neutral 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:18.600 prognosticators have slowly moved the Senate race forecasts in favor 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:22.600 of Democrats, and instead of fighting this election in Colorado 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:25.680 and Arizona, they're fighting in places like South Carolina and 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:29.840 North Carolina, places the Republicans shouldn't really be in tight races. 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:31.960 And so, as I say, we don't know, there's a 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:34.480 lot of unknowns right now around mail in voting, how 0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:36.720 many ballots are gonna get rejected. So you know, I 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.680 don't mean anyone who's counting any chickens before they hatch, 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:43.960 but you know the poll certainly Democrats seem a lot 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:47.400 less worried about this poll right now than Republicans do. 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:50.680 And you know, uh, if Democrats take the Senate, it 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:53.080 could be a bit of a cold winter for for 0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:55.240 Republican Then we just don't know what will happen if 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:58.760 Trump loses, right, I mean both in terms of how 0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:01.880 quickly he'll leave if you leave, but also what will 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:03.880 happen to the party. Does he still hold his grip. 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:09.680 I think he will in at least some Alicia Levine 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.240 with us is being y Malon with a really prodigious 0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:16.760 mathematical set, really wonderful academics on the dynamics. What are 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:20.080 the dynamics right now, Alicia? Within the equity market with 0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:23.880 a cacophony of news, the wall of information, we're all 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:27.720 exhausted by. What's the dynamic for stocks? That mattered to you? 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:32.840 Good morning everyone. Look, you know the thing is, since 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:37.200 the of last Tuesday, the betting markets, forget the CNN 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:39.840 polls in the Wall Street Journal post, the betting market 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:45.400 started pricing in a Democratic sweep right, which means taking 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.000 the Senate as well as the White House. And what 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:52.040 you saw was the cyclical rallying because the expectation is 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:55.600 whether or not you get a stimulus bill in the 0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:57.800 next week or two, you're going to have something even 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:02.000 larger in the first order, and as we know, markets 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.720 anticipate and see through the noise of the next few months. 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:09.040 And that's essentially what markets we're pricing in. And to 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:12.639 the extent that it is becoming, it's looking like a 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:16.280 more lopside victory for the Democrats. It may not happen. 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.200 But that's what the betting markets are telling us. Then 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:23.160 markets are pricing in a huge fiscal bill, larger than 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:26.439 anything that Minution or Pelosi could come up with right 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:29.639 now at least. I keep returning to this question. What 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.640 we're saying so far, is that just state position squeeze 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:34.359 or do you think people have started to think about 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:39.840 durable change over sustainable period that internal rotation hi yield 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:44.560 to state a curve beyond just a two three month trade. Yes, 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:48.359 so I think investors are starting to position here. We 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:51.159 don't like telling investors or our clients that they have 0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:54.960 to do particular things before election. Markets go up under 0:17:54.960 --> 0:18:00.680 both administrations and different configurations of of of of Congress. However, 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:04.440 there's clear that certain sectors will be better off under 0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:08.440 different administrations. Certain sectors will will have, you know, some 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:12.439 regulation under both, you know, both administrations. And so we 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:16.879 think it's time. With the outperformance of tech since the March, 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:21.160 well and really for the two years beforehand, that's really 0:18:21.200 --> 0:18:23.480 time to start looking at the cyclicals. We do. We 0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:26.399 do think the US really has no choice here. There 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:29.240 will be some fiscal stimulus past, whether it's the next 0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:32.080 week or two for the next four months we will 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:35.600 be getting something and with rising deils that suggests cyclicals 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:39.160 will be in favor. Are you making a multi year 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:43.280 projection here, Alicia? What is this two, three, four, five years? 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:46.520 What is it? Look that is? That is a really 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:51.600 tough question because right now policy is everything, and we 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:55.840 know that right so said policy, central bank policy globally 0:18:56.600 --> 0:19:00.480 sustained markets, put a floor under market and it was 0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:03.760 responsible really to the functioning of markets. What became a 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:07.399 health crisis could have been a financial crisis and a 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:10.800 banking crisis as well, and it wasn't because of the 0:19:10.800 --> 0:19:15.159 FED and fiscal stimulus globally has been enormous, and the 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:18.200 US has really been in the forefront of of that, 0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:23.760 spending of GDP on fiscal so far and looking at 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:27.360 another ten percent, which is really extraordinary. Just so much 0:19:27.440 --> 0:19:30.720 depends on policy, So there are vagaries and policy here 0:19:30.760 --> 0:19:32.960 or there. The thought is that the FED may come 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:37.480 in here and clarify its asset purchases monthly to help 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:41.080 stabilize markets if there is no fiscal bill in the 0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:44.600 next week or two, to help get the market over 0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:48.480 that that hold on, Alicia, I'm so sorry, but to 0:19:48.520 --> 0:19:52.200 stabilize markets, markets are doing just fine. I struggle with this, 0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:55.200 the idea the federal come in with additional AS it purchases. 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:58.080 The market right now is pricing in extra stimulus come 0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:01.480 next next year, regardless of who wins, regardless of how 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:05.320 it happens. What is that threshold of stabilization? What does 0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:08.320 it take to get the vets attention here? So I 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:11.120 think I think, look, if we heard J. Powell yesterday, 0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:13.280 I think if there's no fiscal in the next in 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:15.840 the near term, meaning you know, soon next few weeks, 0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:20.359 maybe we hear something about AS that purchases, maybe, um, 0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:22.960 that is the hope of the market and the expectation 0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:25.840 of the market, because if if the fete, if the 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:28.960 set is essentially begging Congress to do something and and 0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:31.840 the government says nothing, you would expect that the FAID 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:34.440 would try to do something as well. I think markets 0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:37.679 are supported here. I think we're volatile. It's a volatile season. 0:20:37.720 --> 0:20:41.919 The election is sort of this existential um risk, but 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:44.680 not really to the extent that we have a clear 0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:47.439 victor and then we can move forward from there. And 0:20:47.480 --> 0:20:50.840 as we know, once policies are clear and direction is clear, 0:20:50.960 --> 0:20:55.200 you can invest Alicia great to catch up. Let's hope 0:20:55.200 --> 0:20:58.000 we get some transparency and clarity very soon. Alicia levating 0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:00.600 that b M y Melon chief strategist on this market, 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.639 the only undecided voter who Florida joins US right now. 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:12.000 Douglas Cass of Sea Breeze Partners. Doug Cass, how are you, sir? 0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:16.120 Y're holding up good? We finally lost the game last night. Yeah, 0:21:16.160 --> 0:21:18.720 it's tough. You know it's tough. I knew you'd don't. 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:22.560 Don't don't forget Tom the greatest Yankee team in history, 0:21:23.040 --> 0:21:28.159 murderers Row, Yeah, I think they were and ten forty four. 0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:33.120 Ruth hit sixty home runs, Garrig hit about they didn't 0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:36.679 win every playoff. I have been dying to speak to 0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:39.159 you and folks, for those of you a little bit younger, 0:21:39.520 --> 0:21:45.280 there is nothing that stopped time like Sandy Kofax. Yes, 0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:50.240 Bob Gibson, it was just stunning to think about the 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:53.840 violence of those two in their different way. I mean, 0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:58.720 Doug Cass three great pictures, then Gibson Cofax and Marichelle. Yeah, 0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:01.479 I had the honor of seeing one Mirochelle as a 0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:04.840 young kid out of Candlestick Park. I hurt myself. I 0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:06.879 think Doug Cass in the backyard trying to get that 0:22:07.000 --> 0:22:10.879 high like going. Bob Gibson was feared, wasn't he? It 0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:16.040 was different? Oh? God, he was tenacious, wasn't he. Sandy 0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:22.160 was like a ballerina. Yeah, but Gibson was tough. Um. 0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:25.359 If you it's hard to explain it. You had been 0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:28.720 around watching him. He was tenacious. They pitched from a 0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:32.040 higher amount two, which made a difference. Bob Gibson dying 0:22:32.080 --> 0:22:36.520 of cancer and the ball was dead. Should the ball 0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:39.200 be dead now? So judges? The ball the judge hit 0:22:39.240 --> 0:22:41.760 the other day is yet to go down. It's not 0:22:41.880 --> 0:22:44.440 touched the ground yet. Should the ball be dead now? 0:22:44.640 --> 0:22:47.560 To bring the small ball game back? Doug Gass, No, 0:22:47.800 --> 0:22:51.359 it's fun. We do. We have the judge and John 0:22:51.400 --> 0:22:55.240 Carlo and I can't wait. Sweeney save us with an 0:22:55.280 --> 0:22:59.680 equity market question. Please exact The Yankees are gonna bounce back. 0:22:59.720 --> 0:23:04.320 I'm or that tonight, so exact, right, exactly right. So 0:23:04.480 --> 0:23:07.960 you know we had the president seemingly pulled back from 0:23:07.960 --> 0:23:10.040 this fiscal stimulus. What do you make of that? How 0:23:10.040 --> 0:23:11.920 do you how does that impact kind of how you're 0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:16.639 thinking about the market? Sure? Sure, uh my, my strong 0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:21.720 investment and trading advice is to consider the contrary UM 0:23:21.800 --> 0:23:25.840 to trade unemotionally to take advantage of the artificiality of 0:23:25.840 --> 0:23:29.359