Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily
Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. Rudy
Speaker 1: Giuliani is a hundred seventh mayor of New York out
Speaker 1: of Brooklyn by way of Garden City South. He is
Speaker 1: widely credited with law in order at a different time
Speaker 1: and place for a more fractious New York City. He's
Speaker 1: gone on to some success. He's going on to a
Speaker 1: lot of debate as well. We greet him here at
Speaker 1: seventies six years old and well preserved. Rudy Giuliani, I
Speaker 1: gotta get right to it. On Fox the other night.
Speaker 1: You make national headlines with a lot of coughing as well.
Speaker 1: How are you and have you had a test recently? Well,
Speaker 1: let me start with the good news. Year. I had
Speaker 1: a test recently the day of actually the day of
Speaker 1: that time that I was coughing. I coughed twice actually,
Speaker 1: and I was clearing my throat. I had a test
Speaker 1: maybe two hours earlier. It came back yesterday and I'm negative.
Speaker 1: That's the second one I've had since I was with
Speaker 1: the group in the White House that unfortunately most of
Speaker 1: them came down with it. I feel very bad for them.
Speaker 1: I almost feel a little guilty, I guess, but uh
Speaker 1: I was one of the few, along with Jared and
Speaker 1: Ivanka that didn't. But so far I don't. And I'll
Speaker 1: go back and get tested again on Friday, and then
Speaker 1: I'll be out of the woodside. I mean, you've got
Speaker 1: to be very positive about it. Also, I'm not. I'm
Speaker 1: not that nervous about it. I know that if it
Speaker 1: does happen, I know exactly what to take. My doctor
Speaker 1: has already prescribed hydroxy chloroquin, which I'm taking every day
Speaker 1: now for five days as a profilactor. He's a doctor
Speaker 1: prescribed that to you. You told the doctor you're gonna
Speaker 1: take this controversial. Oh no, the doctor has treated. The
Speaker 1: doctor has treated to thousand, five hundred patients who had
Speaker 1: this illness, believe it or not, a kind as a genius.
Speaker 1: He invented as a LINKO protocol, and he's lost only
Speaker 1: two patients. Roody, you are the personal confidant to the President.
Speaker 1: He's tweeted twice this morning. He is in recovery. He
Speaker 1: wants to get back to the Oval office and work.
Speaker 1: Have you spoken to him in the last twenty four
Speaker 1: hours and what are you going to advise him to
Speaker 1: get this campaign back on the rails. Well, I mean
Speaker 1: what he's doing, which is he's got his sorry gets
Speaker 1: out all over the country, making speeches, making talks. He
Speaker 1: is uh, he's communicating from the White House, communicating what
Speaker 1: he has to be from the White House, and as
Speaker 1: soon as he can, he'll he'll be back out on
Speaker 1: on the road himself. But he's got something like five
Speaker 1: hundred sorry gets in all different parts of the country,
Speaker 1: particularly in the key battleground states, who are speaking for him.
Speaker 1: I'm going to go to interrupted. Look, Mike Pence has
Speaker 1: the most important vice presidential debate tonight. You and Mike
Speaker 1: Pence have the president's ear. What are you telling him
Speaker 1: and what is Mike Pence gonna do tonight to get
Speaker 1: the campaign on the track to get the marginal voter
Speaker 1: that the president has clearly lost. He hasn't really lost it.
Speaker 1: You're reading polls that that were the same polls he
Speaker 1: was behind by. If I take you back four years,
Speaker 1: we were three days after the Billy bush Uh revelations,
Speaker 1: and he was being countered out at this point, and
Speaker 1: he was about eighteen points behind, seventeen points behind. So
Speaker 1: I mean, I I understand what's wrong with the polls.
Speaker 1: They over sampled Democrats. Uh, there's anywhere anywhere near a
Speaker 1: five to six point differential in favor of Trump. That's
Speaker 1: not there because you don't measure enthusiasm. His enthusiasm level
Speaker 1: is still three times Bidens the Biden voter, half of
Speaker 1: them of voting, you know, just because the Democrats, the
Speaker 1: other half of voting had a hatred for Trump. The
Speaker 1: Trump voters voting for because they love him and because
Speaker 1: they realize he's been one of the most consequential presidents ever.
Speaker 1: And and they are very afraid of a socialist state
Speaker 1: because they believe that Biden is impaired and not able
Speaker 1: to really handle the Come on, Rudy forces Rudy John
Speaker 1: Farrell wants to get in here. Do you see evidence
Speaker 1: that the former vice president is impaired? Oh? Absolutely, what
Speaker 1: don't you present? Not only that, I've had doctors look
Speaker 1: at him, and I've done a podcast on it. Rudy
Speaker 1: Giuliani's common Sense dot Com go look at it. The
Speaker 1: two doctors will compare speeches. Joe Biden gave five years ago.
Speaker 1: Which species he's giving now? He loses his train of
Speaker 1: thought in the middle of a sentence, So do I,
Speaker 1: John Farrell? J No, you know, Oh, come on, I
Speaker 1: lose my train of thought on an hourly basis, John,
Speaker 1: I pledge allegiance. Pledge allegiance to the flag in the
Speaker 1: United States of America and to the Republic for which
Speaker 1: it stands, One nation under God, indivisible with liberty and justice.
Speaker 1: Roll now, Joe Biden, I pledge allegiance to the United
Speaker 1: States underguard John, John about he couldn't how about he
Speaker 1: couldn't get those aren't listen? Listen, listen to me. Go
Speaker 1: get the g Let's not even argue about it. Go
Speaker 1: get ds M five. You know what that is? Ds
Speaker 1: M five. You know it's the psychiatrist's handbook. Go look
Speaker 1: at the ten symptoms of dimension. He's got eight of them.
Speaker 1: One of them is was to train numbers three oh
Speaker 1: three oh three, three oh three oh three. Oh No,
Speaker 1: he doesn't remember it. John doesn't know. He doesn't remember
Speaker 1: it because he has dementia. It's a disease. It's as
Speaker 1: he doesn't have it. Honestly, we're talking about something that
Speaker 1: is peripheral. Honestly, the American people the chance he's disgraceful.
Speaker 1: It's please please cutting me off in the middle. Honestly,
Speaker 1: you are being you are being obstructive. I am talking
Speaker 1: about facts. I'm talking about a psychiatric textbook. You don't
Speaker 1: even know. You don't want the American people to hear
Speaker 1: that the guy running for president has an illness. It
Speaker 1: is clear, it's obvious. Go read D S M five,
Speaker 1: look for the symptoms of dementia. He's got eight of them.
Speaker 1: And don't tell me. That is the truth. I know
Speaker 1: it's uncomfortable for you, but it's the truth. He's also
Speaker 1: a big crook. What guy thing through? Rudy Rudio. Don't
Speaker 1: talk to me in that game. Don't you do? Not
Speaker 1: talk to me in that in that tone. Match you,
Speaker 1: dani As if what I'm saying isn't worthy of consideration
Speaker 1: to ask you a question. I'm just here to ask
Speaker 1: you a question on the medical state of the former
Speaker 1: Vice President Joe Biden. Let's focus. Let's focus on the
Speaker 1: three point five million. Let's focus on the three point
Speaker 1: five million from one of the close friends of Putin
Speaker 1: in Russia that went to his son suffering from drug addiction.
Speaker 1: Why would you pay three point Why did China pay
Speaker 1: the Sun thirty million? The Communist Party of China? Can
Speaker 1: we talk about the things that you don't talk about
Speaker 1: the things that you hide American people. We've agreed to
Speaker 1: do an interview, yes, not a monologue. Do you want
Speaker 1: to let me ask some questions? No? No, I've agreed
Speaker 1: to come on so that I can tell the truth.
Speaker 1: I didn't come on to be doing an interview. Mr
Speaker 1: Pharaoh is going to ask you a question, because that's
Speaker 1: what we do here, ask me question to ask you
Speaker 1: a question of the former mayor of New York City.
Speaker 1: But you can't stop me if you don't like what
Speaker 1: I'm saying, Rudy Well not just want to focus the
Speaker 1: interview a little bit, madic Lani. You have directed scrip
Speaker 1: preparation with the president for if you can answer to
Speaker 1: talk about the debates Governor Christie? Now, why don't we
Speaker 1: talk about Why don't we talk asident going talked about?
Speaker 1: Absolutely not. We can tell you let me finish the
Speaker 1: answer finished. You haven't even let me complete the question.
Speaker 1: Let me let's do that. Wait, the complete the question,
Speaker 1: the fair one. I've been asking a question about the debates, sir,
Speaker 1: so let's start there. I'm not interested in getting combative
Speaker 1: with you. The debates which you had direct involvement in
Speaker 1: to prepare the president for Governor Christy said the president
Speaker 1: was too hots What did you learn from those debates?
Speaker 1: I learned that the president has to do that when
Speaker 1: he's debating the moderator and Joe Biden, and when for
Speaker 1: for months the media has been covering up facts the
Speaker 1: American people have to know about Joe Biden, about his
Speaker 1: incredible history his and his families of taking money from
Speaker 1: countries like Iraq, countries like Ukraine, countries like Russia, and
Speaker 1: basically getting thirty million or more from the Communist Party
Speaker 1: of China with which his son has been a partner
Speaker 1: for the last four years. The American people don't know
Speaker 1: that because those questions aren't asked, those things are suppressed.
Speaker 1: The reason they don't know that Joe Biden is demented
Speaker 1: is because you cut off those parts of his interviews
Speaker 1: when he loses his train of thought, as he did
Speaker 1: twice the other night. So that's my answer to the question.
Speaker 1: Next question, We appreciate your time. Thank you very much
Speaker 1: for joining us today, said cell Phony than the former
Speaker 1: math New York City, the Democratic very much. John A
Speaker 1: disremarkable Tom Kane, It is remarkable to see this John
Speaker 1: after the State of the City. I have the clearest memories,
Speaker 1: way way back pre Giuliani of getting out near the
Speaker 1: Port Authority into what was, you know, the romance of
Speaker 1: it now of a tougher New York City. But it's
Speaker 1: amazing what this guy accomplished into those particularly younger how
Speaker 1: different he is now as we just witnessed uh In.
Speaker 1: As you correctly said, John of monologue, is well, Lisa,
Speaker 1: you're still with us? Did you survive? That is a
Speaker 1: native New Yorker. Honestly, the one thing I wanted to
Speaker 1: ask him as he said that it doesn't worry him
Speaker 1: that much getting the virus. And my key question is
Speaker 1: this the new tactic that the virus just isn't that
Speaker 1: big of a deal. Is that the message from the
Speaker 1: White House That seems to be what President Trump was saying.
Speaker 1: I don't think we're getting a very clear answer, and
Speaker 1: that medical professional is pushing back. I do wonder though,
Speaker 1: is that the message John, I you know what's so important?
Speaker 1: And what Lisa says that that insight is the President saying, well,
Speaker 1: maybe I'm immune. John It was such a different tone
Speaker 1: from Prime Minister Johnson, Wasn't it? What an interview? Why
Speaker 1: aren't we talking about the elephant in the room? I mean,
Speaker 1: come on, that was just absolutely ridiculous in the last
Speaker 1: ten minutes, Tom, absolutely ridiculous. Understand. Josh wind Groves with
Speaker 1: US Now Bloomberg News, White House Reporter, Josh. Fantastic to
Speaker 1: catch up with you, sir, Thanks for joining us today.
Speaker 1: Let's try and focus the debate. Very difficult to focus
Speaker 1: the debate. If an individual that is helping you prepare
Speaker 1: for that debate conducts himself in that manner, how on
Speaker 1: earth will this debate shape up? On October fifth? It's
Speaker 1: in Miami, Florida. I mean, I'm a bit at a
Speaker 1: loss for words. I guess I would say that Rudy
Speaker 1: has been dieting on the same sort of uh feed
Speaker 1: of misinformation that the President has for since sime Um
Speaker 1: and they're convinced that there is conspiracy going on ways
Speaker 1: and I think you've learned a little bit of that. Um. Look,
Speaker 1: you know, I I was some news and also was
Speaker 1: it he's onto droxychlor quin as as a preventative measure
Speaker 1: after he sat next to Chris Christie for a few days.
Speaker 1: Chris Christie, of course, has come down with the virus
Speaker 1: UH and checked himself into hospital. Uh Is issued a
Speaker 1: point in warning for that drug, essentially thinking as the
Speaker 1: emergency youth authorized use authorization. So, um, you know, but
Speaker 1: outed it? So I guess that to you. But but
Speaker 1: Rudy sure seemed upset. I don't know, John, you don't
Speaker 1: have that effect on me normally, but you know, there's
Speaker 1: always tomorrow. What is so important here, Josh is we
Speaker 1: saw the president come out of a very close managed
Speaker 1: theater into that first debate, and all of us, whatever
Speaker 1: our politics, saw the responsive performance of that debate. And
Speaker 1: now we see Mayor Giuliani coming out of the convenience
Speaker 1: and comfort of the bubble, particularly as personified by as
Speaker 1: many conversations with a large family of Fox properties. Fine,
Speaker 1: can this president, from your reporting go outside the bubble
Speaker 1: to speak to marginal voters that don't buy what we
Speaker 1: just heard from the hundred and seventh mayor? He has
Speaker 1: not ever shown interest in doing that. And part of
Speaker 1: the collision course of this election has been the president
Speaker 1: and people around him coming out of their sort of
Speaker 1: Fox News orbit and you know, engaging with other media,
Speaker 1: and it often ends up like this. And we saw
Speaker 1: it with that town hall that ABC ran, what was
Speaker 1: it three weeks ago, George Stepanopolis and Trump got a
Speaker 1: lot of questions about from people on handling the virus,
Speaker 1: downplaying the virus, things that people around him have declined
Speaker 1: to raise with him, right, and so was sort of
Speaker 1: a bubble popping a little bit for him. Now, the
Speaker 1: President continues to believe that there is a silent majority
Speaker 1: out there backing him. But I mean, pull after pull
Speaker 1: after pull, don't show it. In particular, it looks like
Speaker 1: he's about to get clovered among women voters. We're talking
Speaker 1: by twenty points to the poll showed over thirty points
Speaker 1: gap among women voters yesterday. So you know, honestly, like
Speaker 1: I guess, you know, we'll know it I November a third,
Speaker 1: which reality is correct, But but some days it just
Speaker 1: feels like everyone's looking at totally different song sheets. Josh.
Speaker 1: There's also a question if this is the new message
Speaker 1: out of the White House, that people are overplaying the virus,
Speaker 1: that the pandemic isn't that serious? Is there an audience
Speaker 1: for that view? Are there a lot of voters who
Speaker 1: find that to resonate with them and want life to
Speaker 1: just go on and are willing to take the risk?
Speaker 1: I mean there are, but they're the same voter based
Speaker 1: that the president has. I mean pull up to pull up.
Speaker 1: The poll shows that people believe that Trump doesn't take
Speaker 1: it the virus seriously and have that they want more action,
Speaker 1: and particularly on Congress, and we saw the President blow
Speaker 1: up the stimulus talks and then waffle back on forth
Speaker 1: and on Twitter throughout the night. Um, you know that
Speaker 1: the president the people think Biden would be better uh
Speaker 1: under pulling to manage the virus like pull out to
Speaker 1: pull up the poll shows. So you know, I think
Speaker 1: that any day that Donald Trump spent talking about the
Speaker 1: pandemic as the law station campaign, our international audience particularly
Speaker 1: just got a window into a segment of the of
Speaker 1: the President's support there with Mayor Giuliani and of course
Speaker 1: you know the heat the firm ut Fermat rather of
Speaker 1: those that are committed to Donald Trump. That's fine, but
Speaker 1: how does all this redound over to the Senate races?
Speaker 1: I know, you're a White House reporter. But what does
Speaker 1: this tension, particularly tension of conspiracy and ill will and
Speaker 1: almost criminal intent of Democrats, what does that mean to
Speaker 1: the many Senate races? Um, Well, the sort of neutral
Speaker 1: prognosticators have slowly moved the Senate race forecasts in favor
Speaker 1: of Democrats, and instead of fighting this election in Colorado
Speaker 1: and Arizona, they're fighting in places like South Carolina and
Speaker 1: North Carolina, places the Republicans shouldn't really be in tight races.
Speaker 1: And so, as I say, we don't know, there's a
Speaker 1: lot of unknowns right now around mail in voting, how
Speaker 1: many ballots are gonna get rejected. So you know, I
Speaker 1: don't mean anyone who's counting any chickens before they hatch,
Speaker 1: but you know the poll certainly Democrats seem a lot
Speaker 1: less worried about this poll right now than Republicans do.
Speaker 1: And you know, uh, if Democrats take the Senate, it
Speaker 1: could be a bit of a cold winter for for
Speaker 1: Republican Then we just don't know what will happen if
Speaker 1: Trump loses, right, I mean both in terms of how
Speaker 1: quickly he'll leave if you leave, but also what will
Speaker 1: happen to the party. Does he still hold his grip.
Speaker 1: I think he will in at least some Alicia Levine
Speaker 1: with us is being y Malon with a really prodigious
Speaker 1: mathematical set, really wonderful academics on the dynamics. What are
Speaker 1: the dynamics right now, Alicia? Within the equity market with
Speaker 1: a cacophony of news, the wall of information, we're all
Speaker 1: exhausted by. What's the dynamic for stocks? That mattered to you?
Speaker 1: Good morning everyone. Look, you know the thing is, since
Speaker 1: the of last Tuesday, the betting markets, forget the CNN
Speaker 1: polls in the Wall Street Journal post, the betting market
Speaker 1: started pricing in a Democratic sweep right, which means taking
Speaker 1: the Senate as well as the White House. And what
Speaker 1: you saw was the cyclical rallying because the expectation is
Speaker 1: whether or not you get a stimulus bill in the
Speaker 1: next week or two, you're going to have something even
Speaker 1: larger in the first order, and as we know, markets
Speaker 1: anticipate and see through the noise of the next few months.
Speaker 1: And that's essentially what markets we're pricing in. And to
Speaker 1: the extent that it is becoming, it's looking like a
Speaker 1: more lopside victory for the Democrats. It may not happen.
Speaker 1: But that's what the betting markets are telling us. Then
Speaker 1: markets are pricing in a huge fiscal bill, larger than
Speaker 1: anything that Minution or Pelosi could come up with right
Speaker 1: now at least. I keep returning to this question. What
Speaker 1: we're saying so far, is that just state position squeeze
Speaker 1: or do you think people have started to think about
Speaker 1: durable change over sustainable period that internal rotation hi yield
Speaker 1: to state a curve beyond just a two three month trade. Yes,
Speaker 1: so I think investors are starting to position here. We
Speaker 1: don't like telling investors or our clients that they have
Speaker 1: to do particular things before election. Markets go up under
Speaker 1: both administrations and different configurations of of of of Congress. However,
Speaker 1: there's clear that certain sectors will be better off under
Speaker 1: different administrations. Certain sectors will will have, you know, some
Speaker 1: regulation under both, you know, both administrations. And so we
Speaker 1: think it's time. With the outperformance of tech since the March,
Speaker 1: well and really for the two years beforehand, that's really
Speaker 1: time to start looking at the cyclicals. We do. We
Speaker 1: do think the US really has no choice here. There
Speaker 1: will be some fiscal stimulus past, whether it's the next
Speaker 1: week or two for the next four months we will
Speaker 1: be getting something and with rising deils that suggests cyclicals
Speaker 1: will be in favor. Are you making a multi year
Speaker 1: projection here, Alicia? What is this two, three, four, five years?
Speaker 1: What is it? Look that is? That is a really
Speaker 1: tough question because right now policy is everything, and we
Speaker 1: know that right so said policy, central bank policy globally
Speaker 1: sustained markets, put a floor under market and it was
Speaker 1: responsible really to the functioning of markets. What became a
Speaker 1: health crisis could have been a financial crisis and a
Speaker 1: banking crisis as well, and it wasn't because of the
Speaker 1: FED and fiscal stimulus globally has been enormous, and the
Speaker 1: US has really been in the forefront of of that,
Speaker 1: spending of GDP on fiscal so far and looking at
Speaker 1: another ten percent, which is really extraordinary. Just so much
Speaker 1: depends on policy, So there are vagaries and policy here
Speaker 1: or there. The thought is that the FED may come
Speaker 1: in here and clarify its asset purchases monthly to help
Speaker 1: stabilize markets if there is no fiscal bill in the
Speaker 1: next week or two, to help get the market over
Speaker 1: that that hold on, Alicia, I'm so sorry, but to
Speaker 1: stabilize markets, markets are doing just fine. I struggle with this,
Speaker 1: the idea the federal come in with additional AS it purchases.
Speaker 1: The market right now is pricing in extra stimulus come
Speaker 1: next next year, regardless of who wins, regardless of how
Speaker 1: it happens. What is that threshold of stabilization? What does
Speaker 1: it take to get the vets attention here? So I
Speaker 1: think I think, look, if we heard J. Powell yesterday,
Speaker 1: I think if there's no fiscal in the next in
Speaker 1: the near term, meaning you know, soon next few weeks,
Speaker 1: maybe we hear something about AS that purchases, maybe, um,
Speaker 1: that is the hope of the market and the expectation
Speaker 1: of the market, because if if the fete, if the
Speaker 1: set is essentially begging Congress to do something and and
Speaker 1: the government says nothing, you would expect that the FAID
Speaker 1: would try to do something as well. I think markets
Speaker 1: are supported here. I think we're volatile. It's a volatile season.
Speaker 1: The election is sort of this existential um risk, but
Speaker 1: not really to the extent that we have a clear
Speaker 1: victor and then we can move forward from there. And
Speaker 1: as we know, once policies are clear and direction is clear,
Speaker 1: you can invest Alicia great to catch up. Let's hope
Speaker 1: we get some transparency and clarity very soon. Alicia levating
Speaker 1: that b M y Melon chief strategist on this market,
Speaker 1: the only undecided voter who Florida joins US right now.
Speaker 1: Douglas Cass of Sea Breeze Partners. Doug Cass, how are you, sir?
Speaker 1: Y're holding up good? We finally lost the game last night. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's tough. You know it's tough. I knew you'd don't.
Speaker 1: Don't don't forget Tom the greatest Yankee team in history,
Speaker 1: murderers Row, Yeah, I think they were and ten forty four.
Speaker 1: Ruth hit sixty home runs, Garrig hit about they didn't
Speaker 1: win every playoff. I have been dying to speak to
Speaker 1: you and folks, for those of you a little bit younger,
Speaker 1: there is nothing that stopped time like Sandy Kofax. Yes,
Speaker 1: Bob Gibson, it was just stunning to think about the
Speaker 1: violence of those two in their different way. I mean,
Speaker 1: Doug Cass three great pictures, then Gibson Cofax and Marichelle. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I had the honor of seeing one Mirochelle as a
Speaker 1: young kid out of Candlestick Park. I hurt myself. I
Speaker 1: think Doug Cass in the backyard trying to get that
Speaker 1: high like going. Bob Gibson was feared, wasn't he? It
Speaker 1: was different? Oh? God, he was tenacious, wasn't he. Sandy
Speaker 1: was like a ballerina. Yeah, but Gibson was tough. Um.
Speaker 1: If you it's hard to explain it. You had been
Speaker 1: around watching him. He was tenacious. They pitched from a
Speaker 1: higher amount two, which made a difference. Bob Gibson dying
Speaker 1: of cancer and the ball was dead. Should the ball
Speaker 1: be dead now? So judges? The ball the judge hit
Speaker 1: the other day is yet to go down. It's not
Speaker 1: touched the ground yet. Should the ball be dead now?
Speaker 1: To bring the small ball game back? Doug Gass, No,
Speaker 1: it's fun. We do. We have the judge and John
Speaker 1: Carlo and I can't wait. Sweeney save us with an
Speaker 1: equity market question. Please exact The Yankees are gonna bounce back.
Speaker 1: I'm or that tonight, so exact, right, exactly right. So
Speaker 1: you know we had the president seemingly pulled back from
Speaker 1: this fiscal stimulus. What do you make of that? How
Speaker 1: do you how does that impact kind of how you're
Speaker 1: thinking about the market? Sure? Sure, uh my, my strong
Speaker 1: investment and trading advice is to consider the contrary UM
Speaker 1: to trade unemotionally to take advantage of the artificiality of
Speaker 1: stock prices, which is a function of the changing market
Speaker 1: structure over the last decade from active to passive manage
Speaker 1: investing UH In a way, the market participants are the
Speaker 1: least educated and least informed investors and histories UM. And
Speaker 1: we also have to understand in looking at the stock
Speaker 1: market this is really tough because it's such crappy stuff happening,
Speaker 1: especially to small businesses, that this is a Darwinian market
Speaker 1: in which the large companies with operating expertise, large market shares,
Speaker 1: strong financials, continue to a market share and have the
Speaker 1: as Warren Buffett used to say, every deeper competitive modes.
Speaker 1: About two weeks ago, the SMP was faltering, a broke
Speaker 1: was down about from the highs, and I coined the
Speaker 1: term the Biden bump to describe what I was seeing
Speaker 1: in the market and provided an explaination why I was
Speaker 1: buying in the belief of the tradeable rally over the
Speaker 1: balance of the year, and referencing what you just said,
Speaker 1: we have the apparent termination of stimulus talks, which has
Speaker 1: led to the Biden burp yesterday late afternoon. But I
Speaker 1: still believe in the Biden bump, and I think that
Speaker 1: the two week rally may not be over. I actually
Speaker 1: bought futures last night and spiders in the dip. Actually,
Speaker 1: I think it might be far from over because of
Speaker 1: the Biden bump. So, Doug, are you kind of in
Speaker 1: the camp here? It looks like again just looking at
Speaker 1: the polls here, we had to see an end pole
Speaker 1: uh Monday showing a pretty big lead by former Vice
Speaker 1: President Joe Biden. How are you thinking about the election?
Speaker 1: Really important? And again I have a contrary view, um,
Speaker 1: So what is the Biden bump? What does it mean?
Speaker 1: What's the value of non consensus? Um? I think the
Speaker 1: worst outcome for the markets poll would have been a
Speaker 1: close and litigated election in which the outcome would be
Speaker 1: in certain for days, weeks, or even months. Uh. In
Speaker 1: this case, there could have been civil unrest. The markets
Speaker 1: would not only suffer, but the markets would likely grow
Speaker 1: a lot more volatiles. So the Biden bump began two
Speaker 1: weeks ago in the polls and betting parlors has been
Speaker 1: conspicuous in the last two weeks. As of this morning,
Speaker 1: Nate Silvist eight has Biden fifty probability of winning election.
Speaker 1: It was two weeks ago uh And predicted and the
Speaker 1: other betting polls also have a similar outcome. So I
Speaker 1: have very briefly six factors in my Biden bump list.
Speaker 1: Number one wherever us or to a vaccine and therapeutics
Speaker 1: that we have been at any point this year. I
Speaker 1: said in March, and one of the reasons why I
Speaker 1: grew very optimistic on stocks um that you have to
Speaker 1: have a strong belief in our health and scientific communities,
Speaker 1: and just look at this week's Regenera news I still do. Secondly,
Speaker 1: we're approaching a normal seasonal strength in equities. Third, the
Speaker 1: FED is not going to change monetary course. Our central
Speaker 1: banks and others globally are committed like never before the
Speaker 1: fuel domestic economic growth. Fourth, if the market does go higher,
Speaker 1: we have this changed and embedded market structure change which
Speaker 1: could exacerbate the short term recovering prices. Fifth, investors, given
Speaker 1: the heightened uncertainties that everyone knows about our position negatively
Speaker 1: or defensively, they're off side of the market rallies. They
Speaker 1: will have their reverse And finally, my can my base
Speaker 1: case expectation now and so is the market. The bending poles,
Speaker 1: the betting and the polls is that we're going to
Speaker 1: see a blue wave. So I think it's going to
Speaker 1: hasten the imperative in the passage of a massive physical
Speaker 1: stailist program, perhaps more of TOM than two point two trillion,
Speaker 1: possibly as soon as February. The markets are going to
Speaker 1: smell this out and they're going to begin to discount
Speaker 1: this by taking stocks higher over the needed term. Don't
Speaker 1: look at the rear view mirror in terms of the
Speaker 1: failing um UH negotiations today. I never thought the Democrats
Speaker 1: and Republicans wouldn't agree. After all, it's not in either
Speaker 1: their interests. Unfortunately to care sabres with us. We're going
Speaker 1: to continue down three into thirteen points SPS thirty eight
Speaker 1: points cast killing it. Doug. I want to go back
Speaker 1: just a few years to Putnam into Kidder Peabody. There's
Speaker 1: a point you where you're as smart as you think
Speaker 1: you are, and then you realize that forget about the mathematics, Graham,
Speaker 1: Dot Coddle and all the rest of it. The fact
Speaker 1: is corporations always adjust, and it's always underestimated that they
Speaker 1: will adjust to whatever the market gives them, the economy
Speaker 1: gives um, etcetera. Are we underestimating once again the mailability
Speaker 1: of big companies, you know, stock trading companies to readjust
Speaker 1: it's a great point. It's one of my themes. H
Speaker 1: If you look at the stock markets advanced tom since March,
Speaker 1: it's reflecting a triumph of triumph of big business over
Speaker 1: small business. We as investors don't invest in the neighborhood
Speaker 1: bar or restaurant, or in a laundromat or in a
Speaker 1: local candy store. It say have to say that many
Speaker 1: of these small businesses are all at or over the
Speaker 1: abyss we invest and the stock market cadies to people
Speaker 1: of jobs, work at solvent and growing businesses. This is
Speaker 1: a V shaped recovery and housing this is a U
Speaker 1: shaped recovery and autos. The moats, the competitive advantages that
Speaker 1: exist at Costco, Walmart, Target, Amazon, Google, Netflix, Twitter, Home
Speaker 1: Depot improved with COVID nineteen, their moats have deepened. They
Speaker 1: were not impaired by the virus. Unfortunately, the government, and
Speaker 1: by that I mean both sides of the Pew, the Congress,
Speaker 1: the White House, have failed our small businesses which have
Speaker 1: been gutted by covid. Doug, Amazon, give us an update here.
Speaker 1: You've written voluminously on Amazon is a long term investment
Speaker 1: out to thirty three thousand. First of all, are they
Speaker 1: going to split forty one so they can go down?
Speaker 1: I don't think m Bezos is splitting. But Amazon's Amazon
Speaker 1: has been and most most periods in the last since December,
Speaker 1: when the stock dotch locked down to my largest position. UM,
Speaker 1: I made the case on I guess it was Bloomberg TV,
Speaker 1: not radio with you um that it would trade at
Speaker 1: three thousand and two, would trade at five thousands, and
Speaker 1: everyone laughed at me. I think I might have been low.
Speaker 1: It obviously traded ruth thousand over the through three thousand
Speaker 1: over the short term. But their mode is is so deep,
Speaker 1: their resources are so strong. They're operating acumen and logistical
Speaker 1: operating acumen is so sophisticated. Visa v competition, we gotta go.
Speaker 1: Give me a three year target. Three year target, I
Speaker 1: would say seven thousand. Okay, good Doug cast, Thank you
Speaker 1: so much. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.
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