1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,600 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA. 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:11,160 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. Every Pitch is Your Pitch, 3 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 2: the greatest show on Dirk way back that God. 4 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: Now they can add college baseball to their trophy case. 5 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. Colin Wilson 6 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: and I will be diving into college baseball and that's 7 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 1: all you're gonna hear from us until we get into 8 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: preview season for college football, which is right over the horizon. 9 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: So don't feel as though we are in the wilderness 10 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: in terms of college football talk. But as of right now, 11 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 1: the Diamond is dominating everything in the college space, and 12 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: Colin's projections for every single you know matchup from the 13 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: Thursday game ones all the way through the final game 14 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: of the series on Sunday, as well as all of 15 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: his projections in terms of the futures market. That's what 16 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: we're getting into as we lead up to the final 17 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: two weeks of the regular season in college baseball. Then 18 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 1: we have the Selection Show, we get into the NCAA Tournament, 19 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: we get into the regional super regionals leading up to Omaha. 20 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: A lot to unpack and so many teams moving In 21 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 1: the past week, there were a handful of ranked matchups, 22 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,320 Speaker 1: you saw some of the top teams continue to falter 23 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:27,960 Speaker 1: a little bit. So there's a shake up at the 24 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: very top of the polls, and I think that's where 25 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: we're going to start here, Colin. This has been a 26 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: show that has distinct SEC bias, and for good reason. 27 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 1: There's you know, I would argue six or seven teams 28 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 1: that legitimately can win the national championship out of the 29 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 1: Southeastern Conference, and then even more teams that can make 30 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 1: some noise and at least get to Super Regionals. But 31 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: let's talk about other teams that are on the national 32 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 1: radar at this point. And we basically kicked the can 33 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: down the road a little bit talking about teams on 34 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: the West coast, you know, the UC Irvines. He can't 35 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: necessarily take them seriously to win the national championship. But 36 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: we talked about org Stayed a couple of weeks ago 37 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: and their opponent were the Oregon Ducks. Well, the Ducks 38 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: have put it all together, and is this now time 39 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: to take them seriously because they are up to top 40 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:12,399 Speaker 1: you know, the top ten, top five, depending on which 41 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: ranking service you're looking at. But the futures market remains 42 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 1: unimpressed with what Oregon has done. They're still sitting out 43 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:20,639 Speaker 1: there at fifty to one, and when you look under 44 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 1: the hood, their top fifteen and slugging home runs. Mason 45 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,959 Speaker 1: Neville has twenty four bombs on the season, So clearly 46 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 1: he's done so much. And I guess that's where I'd 47 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: like to start here. First of all, how did the 48 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: Hogs let him get out of Fayetteville he transfers to Oregon. Now, granted, 49 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: he did not play very well for the Hogs in 50 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 1: limited played appearances, but from the get go he was 51 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 1: a power guy. The question was can he avoid the strikeout? 52 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 1: Can he be more of a contact hitter to up 53 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: his average? Well, last season he was someone who was 54 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: boom or bust from the dish. But when you look 55 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: at his numbers this year two sixty eight last year 56 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: in terms of average, jumped up to three twenty nine. 57 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: He'll get his on base three sixty nine last season 58 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 1: up to four seventy one. So he's made this huge jump. 59 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,959 Speaker 1: All his power numbers now leading the country and home runs. 60 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 1: So talk to me about Neville, what he means to 61 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 1: the Ducks and does it sting at all that he's 62 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: not there in Fayette All. 63 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 2: Well, of course it stings that Mason Neville is not 64 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 2: with the Razorbacks, but when you look at his performance 65 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 2: two years ago for the Hogs, he just couldn't get 66 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 2: any playing time nineteen games, most of that was on 67 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 2: the midweek, didn't produce a home run. I think he 68 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 2: had three hits, So it was just kind of an 69 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 2: unknown factor that came out of Las Vegas lefty hitter 70 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,080 Speaker 2: in the outfield. And listen, here's the deal. You're not 71 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 2: going to bat in the Arkansas razorback lineup unless you're 72 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 2: capable of hitting double digit bombs over the year, and 73 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 2: Mason Nevill probably just got stuck in with a log 74 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 2: of guys that can absolutely bomb. We could have absolutely 75 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 2: used him last year, I think Arkansas. I think Arkansas 76 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 2: calculated base runs was like six point eight last year. 77 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 2: They just could not get any offense going and losing 78 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 2: Mason Nevill was a big part of that. But at 79 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 2: the same time, that whole entire Arkansas lineup retooled for 80 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,119 Speaker 2: this year, so not missing him that much this year, 81 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 2: but man, imagine where Arkansas would be if they had him. 82 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: Now. Neville's obviously a superstar and all American leading the 83 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: country and home runs. But for Oregon it probably comes 84 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: down at pitching. Right, You've got Grayson Grinsell, who's a 85 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: legit ace two point seven to seven ERA three point 86 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 1: two k's over walk ratio, but he's kind of an 87 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: outlier in terms of, you know, his stuff. He's not 88 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 1: a power pitcher. He tops out at about ninety one 89 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: miles per hour. He's more keen to get batters out 90 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: with his off speed stuff. His change his curve is slider. 91 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: But the question I have for the Ducks, whether you 92 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: are enamored with Grinsell or not, is their second or 93 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: third option. Are they good enough once they get into 94 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,720 Speaker 1: the regional and the super regionals to be able to 95 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: win those games where they have to rely on their 96 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: bullpen or to have to get a quality start out 97 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 1: of their second or third option. And it kind of 98 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: starts with Jason Reetz for me, when you look at 99 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: his potential, obviously his extension at six foot eleven, he's 100 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: insane in terms of his frame and you know his 101 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: his arm angle and things of that nature. But as 102 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 1: heater tops out at ninety seven miles per hour, so 103 00:04:57,760 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: his top end stuff when you add in his powers. 104 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 1: This guy compared to some of the opponents that they're 105 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: going to draw later in the tournament, he looks like 106 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: he has it. Is he someone that you can put 107 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 1: faith in that he can help the Ducks get over 108 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: at the hump? And if so? Is fifty to one 109 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 1: a number that interests you? No? 110 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 2: And I think that's a shock to everybody because Oregon 111 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 2: is nine and one in quad one games, quad one games. 112 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 2: That's not Quad one and two, that's Quad one games, 113 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 2: nine and one. That's a very impressive record. You would 114 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 2: think the Ducks are for real. Their strength of schedule 115 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 2: is about thirty six. That's drugged down by a really 116 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 2: kind of terrible schedule that they've had. By joining the 117 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 2: Big Ten, it would have been more powerful for them 118 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 2: to still have the Pac twelve a round. When you 119 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 2: look at some of the key games that they played, 120 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 2: they swept Oregon State recently. They've won two series on 121 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 2: the road in the Big Ten. That's good, even though 122 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 2: it came against Michigan State and Maryland a previous sweep 123 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 2: of USC in the season. That's big because USC is 124 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 2: probably going to be making the regionals. So I like 125 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 2: all of that, But there's one thing that's kind of 126 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 2: turning me down. Outside of Grayson Grinzelle, this pitching staff 127 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 2: would scare the hell out of me to have a 128 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 2: future on them going into regionals. A four point two 129 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 2: staff era that balloons to a five point eight x 130 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,359 Speaker 2: FIP when you look at the entire staff and really 131 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 2: outside of the one or two pitchers that they have 132 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 2: starting with Grays and Grizzel, outside of that, there isn't 133 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 2: much to go on. And I am gonna mention this later. 134 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 2: We're calling for Texas to be a little bit over 135 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 2: inflated for about two weeks, and I was waiting to 136 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 2: pound and fade them at worked last weekend. Oregon is 137 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:30,720 Speaker 2: one of those teams when you have an x FIP 138 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 2: that's nearing six and you have an ERA that's at 139 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 2: four outside of your prime Friday Night starter, there's just 140 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 2: not a lot left on this staff to back with 141 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 2: your money. 142 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 1: You know, when you mentioned in Oregon and the fact 143 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: that they may not be a candidate to break through, 144 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 1: I always like to put this in perspective. Do you 145 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: know the last time that they made the College World Series. 146 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: I'll just throw this out there, Well. 147 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 2: They made the supers I don't know. 148 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 1: Actually the best picture was on the waterfronts in nineteen 149 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 1: fifty four, So I would say, you know, hypothetically they're 150 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 1: due at this point. But I think you make a 151 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 1: good point in terms of when they get into those 152 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 1: critical moments and they have to turn to their pen, 153 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 1: it's it's more likely than not they're going to give 154 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: up some crooked numbers and potentially get run off the 155 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: diamonds against you know, some elite offenses, which really goes 156 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: to show in terms of the pod that they get 157 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 1: selected for. That really has a huge impact. If it's 158 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: you know, teams that are looking to manufacture runs that 159 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 1: are dink and dunk kind of offenses, potentially they can 160 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: sneak by. But if they, you know, get matched up 161 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 1: with one of those sec powers as a two seed, 162 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: then all of a sudden things get a little dicey. 163 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: All Right, we've satisfied our non sec chatter portion of 164 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: the program, So let's turn to three teams that you 165 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: think are going to be in the mix to secure 166 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: a super regional seed. And what do you mean by 167 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: super regional seed? Just for you know, people who are 168 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: a bit more casual when it comes to college baseball, 169 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: what does that phrasing mean. 170 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, so the field of sixty four is going to 171 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 2: include sixteen pods of teams that are seeded one through four. 172 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 2: Your teams that are fourth are going to be your 173 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 2: high Point Oral Roberts, your small MAC conferences, and your 174 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 2: MAC conference champion are winners, and they will be represent those. 175 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 2: Now the three seeds. In the two seeds are where 176 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 2: you're going to get into teams that are recently been 177 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 2: hot and made it into regionals. There are teams that 178 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 2: have fallen from one or two and fallen down the 179 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:20,119 Speaker 2: board and could be in a slump. Your number one seeds, 180 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 2: there's going to be sixteen of them. So in the 181 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 2: opening weekend you're going to have sixteen regional hosts. But 182 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 2: what's important is those top eight because those top eight 183 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 2: are called super regional seeds. There's only going to be 184 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 2: eight of them, and that means that those teams absolutely 185 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 2: control their destiny by playing at home for their path 186 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: to Omaha, Arkansas, Texas LSU. These are teams that are 187 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 2: no matter what happens the next two weeks and the 188 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 2: SEC tournament, they're pretty much guaranteed to be a super 189 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 2: regional team. So when we're getting into this. When you're 190 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 2: looking at the futures market, don't you want to back 191 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 2: a team that potentially has a really good path to 192 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 2: being a super regional seed and hosting games at home 193 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 2: before you know, they try to make their way to Omaha. 194 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 2: And I think that's where I kind of got clogged 195 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 2: up this week on Auburn Vandy Georgia, they are competing 196 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 2: for that final eighth seed. This is a nasty one 197 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 2: between these three teams to try to dissect which one 198 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 2: is the best future. 199 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, looking at it right now. Per Baseball America's bracket projection, 200 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,559 Speaker 1: Georgia as a two seed, Alburn is a five, Vandy 201 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: as a seven. But as you mentioned, because there's two 202 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:21,959 Speaker 1: weeks left and the SEC Tournament, if any of those 203 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 1: teams flame out, they certainly could give up an opportunity 204 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: to have a super regional seed. And what's fun about 205 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: discussing these three in particular is you have two polar 206 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: opposites and then Alburn in the middle. The Diamond Dogs 207 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: can mash the ball, but they haven't figured out things 208 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: on the pitcher's mound. Vandy has to manufacture runs, but 209 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: their staff continues to overachieve from the bump, and then 210 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 1: there's Auburn who's really balancing kind of right down the middle. 211 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: There eight games above five hundred when facing Quad one 212 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 1: and Quad two competition. So let's start with Let's say 213 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: a team like Auburn, as I mentioned, a team that's 214 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: somewhere in between. They have those moments where the pitching 215 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: staff puts all together. They have some moments where they 216 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 1: manufacture some runs and start to get hot from the dish. 217 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: Talk about the Tigers first. 218 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. Like, first off, you can't go what 219 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 2: these teams did against each other to try to break 220 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 2: this down. Auburn beat Vandy in a series. Vandy swept Georgia, 221 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 2: and Georgia swept Auburn, so they've all kind of piled 222 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 2: up against each other. You can't use that. But for 223 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 2: Auburn specifically, they beat Georgia and Bandy on x FIP 224 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 2: from a team staff perspective, and they beat them on 225 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 2: calculated base runs, which means the offense is better than 226 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 2: both of them. Their ex FIP is better than both 227 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 2: of them. Their final games, they're going to have a 228 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 2: series at home against South Carolina, who, Sorry, Gamecock fans, 229 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 2: I think maybe you've given up on this season and 230 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 2: then they're going to go to Old miss a team 231 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 2: that's beatable. You can win the series there, but we'll see, 232 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 2: We'll see how important that series is and how serious 233 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 2: they're going to take that last series of the season. 234 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 2: So you know, to me, South Carolina has lost six 235 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 2: of their last seven games. Old Missus RPI is seventeenth. 236 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 2: That will help boost Auburn in the final week. I 237 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 2: do like Auburn. You know what are they nineteen eleven 238 00:10:56,559 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 2: quad one, quad two games. That is an impressive So 239 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 2: I expect for me Auburn to be above Georgia and 240 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 2: Bandy in this little analysis that we have with the 241 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 2: three teams. 242 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, just to dive in a little bit deeper. With Georgia, 243 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 1: their offense obviously tremendous lead in the country and home runs, 244 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 1: but in terms of where they are ranking wise versus 245 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 1: where they're in the futures market, it seems like they're 246 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: going in opposite directions. Georgia's pretty much consensus top five 247 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 1: across all rankings, but you can get them at nineteen 248 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: to one out in the futures market. Is that just 249 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: Betters and the market saying this staff can't be trusted 250 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 1: even to get out of regionals. 251 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I listen, Georgia can hit, and we all know that, 252 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,319 Speaker 2: and that's the reason why we I was kind of 253 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 2: piping over at three straight back in January, like, you 254 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 2: got to get your Georgia forty to ones. This is 255 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 2: potentially a super regional team and if not, then they're 256 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,439 Speaker 2: going to be a regional team in Athens and blow 257 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 2: the ball out of the water. But the pitching has 258 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 2: been poor at best, best hitting of this group, worst 259 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 2: pitching of this group. They're going to finish up at 260 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 2: Alabama and then they're going to host Texas A and M. 261 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 2: So there are RPI advantages here that if Georgia can 262 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 2: go four and two out of those two series, potentially 263 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 2: might have locked up that super regional seed, you know. 264 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 2: But for me, the Georgia pitching staff, I just cannot 265 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 2: get over a five point three x FIP that goes 266 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:14,719 Speaker 2: against a four point seventy RA. So that means their 267 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 2: team pitching staff is not good, and the advanced analytic 268 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 2: behind at the FIP and the x FIP proved that 269 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 2: they're worse than the actually shown. You can't go against 270 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 2: home runs per nine being number one, but at some 271 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 2: point they got to probably play on the road and 272 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 2: get out of the friendly confines and Athens and try 273 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 2: to hit somewhere else and pitch somewhere else, which I 274 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 2: don't know can happen. Let's set up a quick game 275 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 2: of pepper before we get into your Thursday, Friday, Saturday, 276 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 2: Sunday projections, and. 277 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: Let's play you a game of choose your own adventure. Colin. 278 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 1: I'm going to give you three players, assuming they all 279 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: play to their absolute ceiling from here on out, Which 280 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: one of these players do you think will have the 281 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: biggest impact on their team's overall chances to get to Omaha. 282 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 1: Let's start with Georgia, who you just discussed. Leyden Finley, 283 00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: one of their starters, the big righty has looked really 284 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 1: good in his life. Four starts, three of his last four, 285 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: He's only given up one run, earning wins over Arkansas, Miszoo, 286 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,439 Speaker 1: and Oklahoma. He held the Hogs, Tigers and Sooners, like 287 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 1: I said, to four runs total across those eighteen innings. 288 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 1: Then you look at an alburn is a team that 289 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 1: needs someone to step up in terms of their lineup. Ike, Irish, 290 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 1: I can't pass this guy up. Just a phenomenal nab. 291 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 1: He's slashing three thirty five, four point fifty one six 292 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 1: forty six from the dish with twelve hound runs. Is 293 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 1: he doing enough to elevate this Auburn offense when it 294 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 1: matters the most? And then let's close out with a 295 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:34,680 Speaker 1: Cinderella option as well. Coast to Caroline's Jacob Morrison is 296 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: built like a Detroit Piston's power forward from the nineteen eighties. 297 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 1: He's absolutely huge. He's pushing two hundred and fifty pounds, 298 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 1: but his last three games twenty innings pitched, two earned runs, 299 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: nineteen k's and zero walks. You can't score if you 300 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: don't get people on base against this guy, and a 301 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:52,679 Speaker 1: big part of it is that not only can he 302 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:54,839 Speaker 1: strike you out, but he's pitching in such a way 303 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 1: that's leading to weak contact and fewer base runners. Coastal, 304 00:13:58,320 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: by the way, fifty five to one to win it. 305 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: Of those three, Finley, Irish and Morrison for the Shans, 306 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: who do you think, if they play absolutely out of 307 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: their mind, has the best chance to drag this team 308 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 1: to Omaha. 309 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and start with the two pitchers here, 310 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:13,839 Speaker 2: and let's start with Coastal Carolina and Jacob Morrison are 311 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 2: Rick mahor Bill Lamber type body from the late eighties 312 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 2: for our pistons. And I think what you have to 313 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: look at here is that Jacob Morrison has a ERA 314 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 2: of two, but when you go into FIP an x FIP, 315 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 2: that falls to three point nine and then four point 316 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 2: eight for an x FIP for Jacob Morrison. So I 317 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 2: don't trust the stuff that he's had out there when 318 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 2: you put that up against Layton Finley, considering the strength 319 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 2: of schedule that he's had to pitch against. He has 320 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 2: a four point eight e RA and he has a 321 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 2: FIP and an x FIP about five eight and five two. 322 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 2: Those aren't great numbers, but those numbers are just barely 323 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 2: below what Jacob Morrison has. And considering the strength of 324 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 2: schedule that these two have had, I mean the RPI 325 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 2: for George's number one, They've played everybody in the country 326 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 2: in the SEC. So I think Layton Finley is the 327 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 2: winner here. But I'm going on Ike Irish for the 328 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 2: Auburn and that is the most critical, most important player 329 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 2: here that can absolutely carry everyone. And the reason is 330 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 2: because if Auburn is going to win, it has to 331 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 2: come from the offense. Their eleventh in fielding percentage. Their 332 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 2: pitching staff is okay, but they're on base as one 333 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 2: hundred and first. They're slugging is eighty second. Their home 334 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 2: runs per nine or sixty ninth. Auburn the only advances 335 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 2: as far as ike Irish can hit them. That is 336 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 2: the most critical piece of that team. And I'll take 337 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 2: him as if he gets hot, he can carry Auburn 338 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:29,239 Speaker 2: to Omaha. 339 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 1: Do you ever watch sports and find yourself wishing that 340 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 1: there was a way you could get into the game 341 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: and be even more involved while with Underdog, there's finally 342 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: a way to make picks on sports without leaving the house. 343 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 1: The game is in your hands to play. Choose whether 344 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: player will go higher or lower on a specific stat 345 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: like touchdown, strikeouts, points scored, and more. You've got all 346 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: your favorite leagues, teams and stars to choose from. You 347 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: can create entries just with basketball or baseball picks. You 348 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 1: can mix and match across any sport that you wish. 349 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: You can play with as little as one dollar, and 350 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: if you get everything right, you can win up to 351 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: one thousand times your money, So you could turn a 352 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: single dollar into one thousand dollars just with your sports knowledge. Now, 353 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 1: I've been playing an underdog throughout the Major League Baseball season. 354 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: You've got NHL Playoffs, you got the NBA. I'm sweating 355 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: every single game in the NBA because no lead is safe. 356 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: We just saw that between the Cavs and the Pacers. 357 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: You can have that level of excitement on a nightly basis, 358 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 1: and that's the beauty of underdog. You can ride the 359 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 1: hot hands, you can go, you know, with a player 360 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: or a team that you consider to be undervalued, and basically, 361 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 1: Underdog has you covered top to bottom. So download the 362 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 1: Underdog app and sign up now using promo code BBOC 363 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 1: to unlock a special offer for up to one thousand 364 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: dollars in bonus cash when you make your first deposit. 365 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 1: Join in on the fun and sign up with promo 366 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 1: code BBOC. Claim your special offer today for up to 367 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: one thousand dollars in bonus cash instantly upon your first deposit. 368 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 1: Must be eighteen plus, nineteen plus in Alabama, Nebraska, nineteen 369 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: plus in Colorado for some games, and twenty one plus 370 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: in Massachusetts and Arizona and present in a state where 371 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy Opera it's term supply concerned with your play, 372 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: call one eight hundred Gambler or visit NCP Gambling dot org. 373 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 1: In Arizona call one eight hundred next step or texts 374 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 1: next step to five three three four two in New 375 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 1: York called the twenty four to seven Hope line at 376 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: one eight seven seven eight Hope and why or text 377 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 1: hope and why. All right, let's dive into Thursday's slate. 378 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: We don't always deep dive Thursday because there's, you know, 379 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 1: a smaller slate. There can be a lot of massive 380 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: favorites on the board, which makes it difficult to add 381 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: it in unless you're gonna play run lines. Auburn is 382 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,439 Speaker 1: minus five point forty at home against South Carolina at 383 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 1: least by your projections. Coastal could end up closing minus 384 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 1: eight hundred against Monroe. So not a lot of great options. 385 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 1: But there is some fun brewing in the twelve. Your 386 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 1: projection for BYU Kansas on the total is twenty. And 387 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: it's sometimes it's as simple as find the highest total 388 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 1: on the board and bet over. Certainly we've done that 389 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 1: in college football at times here at BBOC. Is it 390 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 1: that simple? Just kind of like relax, just fire and 391 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: over and then just enjoy some innings where you could 392 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,439 Speaker 1: see five or six runs from the Coops or Jayhawks. 393 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 2: Look, this is a market problem. This is not a 394 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 2: projection problem. Every single week BYU and Kansas games out 395 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 2: of my projections are around eighteen or nineteen. The market 396 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:18,959 Speaker 2: continues to put up fifteen to fifteen and a half. 397 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 2: And I think last week we might have had a 398 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 2: thirty run ball game. So BYU and Kansas are going 399 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 2: to meet with these two offenses. The park factors for Kansas, 400 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 2: when you look at Hogland Ballpark for Kansas, it's just 401 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 2: been a run fest. And the BYU pitching staff has 402 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 2: a TVRA of seven point five, a tv RA of 403 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 2: seven point five. These Kansas and BYU totals, you know, 404 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 2: they're just they're not being properly priced. I make this 405 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 2: first game nineteen point eight. I think if you get 406 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 2: anything in the fourteen fifteen sixteen range, you're going to 407 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 2: hit the over. And when you look at these two 408 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 2: pitchers going up here, you know, you look at Justice 409 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 2: Research Dominic Bogelly, you know, we're staring at x fips 410 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 2: that are at seven, We're staring at eras that are 411 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 2: seven and five. It's just nothing about this screams that 412 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,359 Speaker 2: there won't be runs. So I would say keep an 413 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 2: eye over on the projections page that I have at 414 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,919 Speaker 2: three straight and definitely be clicking on the link to 415 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 2: the wind. The wind for those of you that follow 416 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,120 Speaker 2: on my plays. The wind, absolutely in college baseball has 417 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 2: the ability to shut down an over or and under, 418 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 2: even if I may be a run and a half 419 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 2: or two runs outside of my projection. Defenses play a 420 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 2: part wind blowing straight in. These are college kids. I mean, 421 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 2: this is not as sound as saying Wrigley is getting 422 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 2: twenty miles an hour blown in from Lake Michigan. It's 423 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 2: definitely an under. These kids could have sloppy defenses, other 424 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 2: things could happen. Just pay attention to wind when you 425 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 2: make these bets. But I'm definitely over BYU Kansas on 426 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 2: Thursday night. 427 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: The majority of the series start on Friday, so we'll 428 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: move to the Friday slate. Some huge conference showdowns between 429 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: Vandy Tennessee, Florida, Texas North Carolina against NC State and 430 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,679 Speaker 1: the headliner LSU VERSUS Arkansas. Got to love the Battle 431 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 1: for the Boot. We'll get to that more card, but 432 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 1: let's start further down the card in terms of value 433 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,639 Speaker 1: that you're seeing. FSU is traveling to Berkeley as a 434 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,440 Speaker 1: big favorite with Jamie Arnold on the bump, the future 435 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 1: top pick potentially in the Major League Baseball draft. He's 436 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,360 Speaker 1: got plus fastball. His breaking stuff really defines him. When 437 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: he has that sweeping slider working for him and he's 438 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: missing bats, he's absolutely elite. But when he struggles to 439 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 1: locate it, he can get himself into trouble, and he's 440 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,199 Speaker 1: done that multiple times on the road this year. Is 441 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 1: this an opportunity to fade Arnold? 442 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 2: I think so. Number one. Jamie Arnold is always overpriced 443 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 2: in the market. I project him about minus three twenty. 444 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 2: I'm sure that'll be higher. Which when it is higher 445 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,120 Speaker 2: like this and a team is on the road, I'll 446 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 2: look at the run line on the other team. Am 447 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 2: I in love with col Baseball? Absolutely not. Am I 448 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 2: in love with David Shaw who's going to take the 449 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,640 Speaker 2: mound against Jamie Arnold? Absolutely not. He's got an ERA 450 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,680 Speaker 2: of eight point seven. The good news is he only 451 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 2: last two innings in every outing. So this is really 452 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 2: a team staff Col thing to try to keep up 453 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 2: with Florida State. And you know, when you look at 454 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 2: Jamie Arnold. He has had struggles on the road Notre 455 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 2: Dame in March. Cerned runs given up to Miami on 456 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 2: the road earlier this season, and you look at those, 457 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 2: you know, specifically the Notre Dame game, the Notre Dame 458 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 2: series game was in March, temperatures were not great. Now 459 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 2: all of a sudden, Florida State is going to take 460 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 2: the longest travel of anybody this weekend. It's going to 461 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 2: be high fifties in Berkeley. It's going to be cold. 462 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 2: I think this is a cal run line for me. 463 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 2: I just you know, Florida State is sitting at second 464 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 2: I think right now in the D one Baseball poll. 465 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 2: I mean, they're pretty comfortable not saying that Jamie Arnold 466 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 2: is not going to be elite. He always is, but 467 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 2: if he can't locate and it's fifty degrees, he's had 468 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 2: this problem before. So cal run line is the play 469 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 2: I'm going to make. I do not like playing cow baseball, 470 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 2: but I think I can't pass up the spot with 471 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 2: Jamie Arnold, who, by the way, he has a two 472 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 2: point two nine ERA is a four point two x FIP, 473 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 2: so he is an elite pitcher. But there could be 474 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 2: some aggression in this could be the game. 475 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 1: We talked a lot about Oregon State in a recent episode, 476 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: just for the Beavers to go out and get swept 477 00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:00,479 Speaker 1: in a four game set with they rebounded against That's why. 478 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 1: But now they open against Iowa and Kaid Obermuller on 479 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,479 Speaker 1: the bump for the Hawkeyes. Is this a spot to 480 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: play Nelson kel Joe as an underdog? The lefty works 481 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 1: with three pitches. His fastball can hit the mid nineties, 482 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: but his slider is really the pitch that gets batters 483 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: to chase and potentially miss. Is this an opportunity on 484 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 1: an Oregon State team that, in terms of being independent, 485 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 1: they're playing all kinds of different teams from all around 486 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 1: the country to pull a big ten team here as 487 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: an underdog. Is that too good to pass up? With 488 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:30,200 Speaker 1: kel Joe on the bump. 489 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, we needed to talk about this one because when 490 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 2: the projections came out and I usually cook them all 491 00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 2: up early in the week, and I saw Iowa minus 492 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 2: two forty four over Nelson kel Joe and Oregon State, 493 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 2: I really had to do a little bit more inspection. 494 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 2: How in the world is Kid Obermuller projected over Nelson 495 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 2: kel Joe and first. And I'll say this because we're 496 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 2: recording this on Wednesday. I don't see any odds makers 497 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,159 Speaker 2: making Oregon State a big underdog or an underdog at 498 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 2: all against Iowa here on the road. But when you 499 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 2: go into the stats, Obermuller a full run lower in EER, 500 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 2: a full run and a half lower in x FIP, 501 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 2: and that drives this projection. When you look at calculated 502 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 2: base runs seven point five for Oregon State versus eight 503 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,880 Speaker 2: point three for Iowa, Iowa has better numbers everywhere, from 504 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 2: their starting pitcher analytics to their team staff ra analytics 505 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 2: to calculated base runs. So Kate Obermuller is going to 506 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 2: be the play. Iowa might be a play all weekend. 507 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 2: If they want to make Iowa dog give me some runs, 508 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 2: I'll take that. But I think this number is going 509 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 2: to be completely mispriced whenever organ staint Iowa is aligned. 510 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: Let's double click into another SEC game, the Sooners and 511 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 1: the Wildcats. Kison Witherspoon against Harris. You seem to favor 512 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 1: Witherspoon in this matchup. He's got a little Dylan cease 513 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:47,879 Speaker 1: in his game. He's been trusted to go deep and 514 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 1: starts for the Sooners time and time again. This season, 515 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,479 Speaker 1: he has four sec starts with over one hundred pitches, 516 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 1: and that's something that's interesting to bring up. You mentioned 517 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 1: some pictures earlier in this episode that really are just 518 00:23:58,160 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 1: looking to get out of the fourth inning and then 519 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 1: hand it over to the bullpen. Not Witherspoon. He's somebody 520 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,880 Speaker 1: that can protect the bullpen in terms of how it's 521 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,479 Speaker 1: used throughout the series. So talk me through him as 522 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 1: a minus one sixty favorite over Kentucky. 523 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, Kyson Witherspoon is somebody we've played all year for OU. 524 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:14,920 Speaker 2: He is elite on the mound in the opening game 525 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 2: for the Sooners, and I think the important thing to 526 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 2: know you mentioned how dep goes into games. He averages 527 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 2: six innings per outing, and that's considering the first couple 528 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 2: starts of the season wasn't going deep because he just 529 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 2: didn't have the arm strength. So these days, six innings 530 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 2: is probably nothing for Kyson Witherspoon. I do project this 531 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 2: at minus one sixty over Nate Harris for Kentucky, and 532 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:36,919 Speaker 2: I know people come in they're like, Oh, they're going 533 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 2: to throw so and so. A lot of team analytics 534 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 2: drive these projections. So if Nate Harris is not throwing 535 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 2: for Kentucky, and it could be who Nick McKay or 536 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 2: some of the other names. It could move the line 537 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 2: forty cents. I think the most important thing is Kyson 538 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 2: Witherspoon is an elite pitcher that we've been on all season. 539 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 2: I project this at minus one sixty. Bodsmakers want to 540 00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,119 Speaker 2: put that out there. I would happily play ou on 541 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 2: the money line, probably on the run line as well, a. 542 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 1: Big money line between Tennessee and Vandy. You don't mind 543 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 1: laying it with Liam Doyle on the bump in the 544 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 1: first game of this series between the Doors and the Balls. 545 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,399 Speaker 1: Is this more of a run line or do you do? 546 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: You have no problem laying minus two to sixty. Maybe 547 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 1: use it as a Partla Sweden there for some other plays. 548 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 2: I don't have a problem playing Tennessee from here on out. 549 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 2: I think you know a lot of people are saying, 550 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 2: how come they're losing so many series? And I understand 551 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 2: that factor, But at the same time, it's not been 552 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,159 Speaker 2: because of the pitching. Liam Doyle is still supporting an 553 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 2: ex fit at three point three when you look at 554 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 2: the team era, or at three point five and the 555 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,240 Speaker 2: you know, the exhip is at four point four. That 556 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 2: four point four is well lower than any other SEC 557 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 2: club from a full roster. So you know, I project 558 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 2: Liam Doyle minus two sixty against J. D. Thompson in 559 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 2: the opening game. You know, we saw Arkansas slump for 560 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 2: three weeks. There were some problems at the plate. We've 561 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,119 Speaker 2: seen some mistakes from Tennessee, but the the advanced underlining 562 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,119 Speaker 2: analytics are that the volunteers are for real. They're the 563 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 2: only team in the conference that has three road series 564 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 2: wins and none of them were Missouri. By the way, 565 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,639 Speaker 2: I should throw out the free square there. So I 566 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 2: do believe in Tennessee. I think they are a play 567 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 2: on this weekend and we'll see what number pops up. 568 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 2: But I do project minus two sixty for Liam Doyle 569 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:18,399 Speaker 2: on the first game. 570 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 1: Turning to Saturday, I want to give you the floor 571 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,239 Speaker 1: to discuss LSU and Arkansas specifically in game two with 572 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 1: your beloved Gauge Wood on the. 573 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 2: Hell yeah, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm 574 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 2: going to take it under like we're what five days away, 575 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 2: and I already know I'm going to be taking it under. Here, 576 00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 2: there's two things going on here. One on each side. 577 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,399 Speaker 2: LSU has Anthony Iinsen going in the second game of 578 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,879 Speaker 2: their series. He's an absolute animal right now. He just 579 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,919 Speaker 2: came off one of the most dominating performances of the 580 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,199 Speaker 2: season at Texas A and M last week. He went 581 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 2: a complete game, gave up one earned run and fourteen 582 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,480 Speaker 2: strikeouts in Bluebell Park. That is extremely impressive. Now on 583 00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 2: the Arkansas side, their game twos have been elite. Yes, 584 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 2: I mentioned Arkansas has lost some series, they have not 585 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 2: lost in Game two with gage Wood and Gab Gackle. 586 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 2: That is the connection here. Gabe Gackle no longer started 587 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 2: returns to his closing role. He is now slotted in 588 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,479 Speaker 2: to back up gage Wood as gage Wood is starting 589 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 2: to build his arm strength. So once you get out 590 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,359 Speaker 2: of them, they've they've won three straight. They've allowed six 591 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 2: earned runs in those three games. So I expect Arkansas's 592 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,639 Speaker 2: pitching to be elite as it always has been on 593 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:25,200 Speaker 2: game twos. I expect Anthony Ironsen to completely take over 594 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 2: games from here on out. As a Game two starter 595 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,479 Speaker 2: for LSU, I'm going to bet under on Arkansas LSU 596 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,719 Speaker 2: on this second game of the series. I don't care 597 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 2: if the wind's blown out. On alex Box, there's just 598 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 2: way too much pitching in this game. 599 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,679 Speaker 1: On the Sunday card, let's start with an ACC matchup 600 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 1: at the Tar Heels against the wolf Pack. It looks 601 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 1: like a coin flip, at least in Sunday's matchup between 602 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 1: Jasondacaro and Ryan bron Tacarro was a freshman All American 603 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 1: last season, but he struggled early this year, getting knocked 604 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,640 Speaker 1: around by Stanford by Duke, But lately he has been 605 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 1: absolutely nails, allowing four earned runs across his last four starts, Fastball, 606 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 1: slider and proof kurb all of the top three pitches. 607 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,359 Speaker 1: He's someone who certainly is gonna have some buzz in 608 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,159 Speaker 1: terms of when he gets up to the majors in 609 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 1: a year or two. So when I also look at this, 610 00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 1: I think it's interesting in terms of the ACC. When 611 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 1: you look at the pecking order, there's clearly a small 612 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,159 Speaker 1: handful of teams at the top who have been jocking 613 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 1: for position to be the top dog there. But you 614 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 1: got to be able to win on the road. We 615 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 1: bring it up time and time again once you get 616 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,680 Speaker 1: into the tournament, certainly once you get to Omaha, all 617 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 1: of that home field advantage, that home cooking goes out 618 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,320 Speaker 1: the window. So what are you in terms of road RPI? 619 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 1: That's why that's a great opportunity for you. And see 620 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 1: what are you seeing in Game three? 621 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Jason Deacaro here, and I think you're 622 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 2: going to get a projection of about minus one to 623 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 2: ten both ways. So you wouldn't think that there's anything 624 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 2: discerning between these two pitchers or these two clubs. But 625 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,640 Speaker 2: Jason Deacarro last year was projected to be the freshman 626 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 2: phenom of the future for North Carolina. Everything about him 627 00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 2: said that the tar Hills will be great for a 628 00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 2: few years. And under Jason Deacaro he came out and 629 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 2: struggled earlier this year, but if you look at his 630 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 2: last few starts, he's been one of the best in 631 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 2: the country. He's won three straight games a grand total 632 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 2: given up of three earned runs. The Tarkhis are going 633 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:10,959 Speaker 2: to be a play here on Sunday at pick them. 634 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 2: And as long as Jason Dacaro is filling this final spot, 635 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 2: then you can suggest that he's going to go up 636 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 2: against teams other third starters and other staffs that have 637 00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 2: been completely ran through by the time they get to 638 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 2: this point in the weekend. So DeCaro is a pitcher 639 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 2: that is completely on the rise, always going in the 640 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 2: last game of the series for a rising North Carolina team, 641 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 2: and I am going to back him here on Sunday. 642 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: Now, my favorite part where we add to our future 643 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 1: is portfolio. Let me ask you this. Right off the top, 644 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 1: we can agree there's basically no value on the top 645 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 1: five to ten teams right now. It's basically dried up 646 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 1: where if you're looking to pull the trigger on them, 647 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 1: you're almost hoping that they kind of flame out to 648 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 1: end the regular season in the next two weeks or 649 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,160 Speaker 1: have an early exit from a conference tournament. Am I 650 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 1: seeing that properly in terms of the way teams are priced, 651 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 1: like a team like Arkansas or Tennessee? 652 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, Argison, Tennessee. Still, it's just not I can't justify 653 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,240 Speaker 2: buys on these current numbers. LSU could lose the series 654 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 2: to Arkansas this weekend and get a better number next week. 655 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,400 Speaker 2: I mean, this is a monster series between the Hogs 656 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 2: and the Tigers. We'll see where the futures fall, because 657 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 2: one of those teams is going to have a better 658 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,000 Speaker 2: futures number after this weekend. You would think oddsmakers have 659 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 2: been very stingy on lowering Tennessee. I think I saw 660 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 2: some seven to ones out there. We get some ten 661 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 2: to ones out there, it'll be time to purchase. But 662 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 2: not this week. We started off the season with Georgia futures, 663 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 2: so we can't harp on that very much. We can't 664 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 2: heart very much more on Texas A and M. I 665 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,360 Speaker 2: was out screaming about fifty to one's and everything with 666 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 2: the Aggies three four weeks ago, so we can't go there. 667 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 2: So really there's just there's no value. And if you 668 00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:37,480 Speaker 2: don't have the teams that we've been gathering all season, 669 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 2: there's there's you know, those numbers are long gone. 670 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,360 Speaker 1: What's nice though, with the you know, the top teams 671 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 1: kind of in a holding pattern, this is the perfect 672 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 1: opportunity to add a long shot. And when I saw 673 00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 1: your projection page and the little grid, and I saw 674 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: teams like UTSA, Yukon, West Virginia, high Point, color me interested. 675 00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 1: Let's start with high Point. You know, an offensive juggernaut 676 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 1: top three in home runs, on base and slug but 677 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 1: woof this pitching staff is lost at seed to say, 678 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,320 Speaker 1: put it lightly and they've played absolutely no one throughout 679 00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 1: this entire season. The Panthers also in terms of, you know, 680 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 1: their overall brand, they made the NCA Tournament in March Madness. 681 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 1: They got to have all those articles written in tiktoks 682 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 1: and Instagram videos about how they have some of the 683 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 1: nicest dining halls in the entire country. You can get 684 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: on a monthly basis a steak dinner on Highpoint because 685 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,440 Speaker 1: they want to essentially teach you how to, you know, 686 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 1: interact with fine dining as a young professional. That seems 687 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,480 Speaker 1: pretty awesome. They got ice cream trucks that are free 688 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 1: as a part of your meal plan. It's a cute story. 689 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,400 Speaker 1: Their offense is put this pitching staff and you have 690 00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 1: to scratch them off the list right away because of that. 691 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 2: Right yeah, the pitching staff is so horrific. Now, and 692 00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 2: let me just say this first, if you need an 693 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 2: official future for the podcast, Auburn forty to one is 694 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,400 Speaker 2: out there, all right, There's thirty ones out there, but 695 00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 2: there's there's some forty ones nationally out there. Go out 696 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,040 Speaker 2: there and grab that. This portion of the podcast, I 697 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 2: think it's time to reach go deep. Find some two 698 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,120 Speaker 2: hundred one three hundred one, one hundred and twenty five 699 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 2: to ones. Now with high Point, that's not going to 700 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 2: be the team. High Point absolutely one of the best 701 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,040 Speaker 2: hitting teams in the nation top three and homers per nine, 702 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 2: on base and slugging, But this pitching staff six point 703 00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 2: four x FIPS six point one ERA, that means they're 704 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 2: not good, and the under the underlying advanced analytics says 705 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 2: they're worse than they're not good. 706 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: Uh. 707 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 2: And then the strength of schedule of two hundred fourth. 708 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,200 Speaker 2: I mean, sure, you can hit that kind of way 709 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 2: against a two hundred fourth ranks strength to schedule, but 710 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,280 Speaker 2: you're pitching that way against a two hundred fourth strength 711 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,560 Speaker 2: to schedule. I'm not saying high Point is going to 712 00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 2: go in and do two and q at a regional, 713 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 2: but you know this is not the future that you 714 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 2: want to. 715 00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,960 Speaker 1: Buy West Virginia up next a promising staff ERA, but 716 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,840 Speaker 1: they're underlying pitching stats indicate that the bottom could fall 717 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 1: out at any point. Interestingly, there's sixteen and four against 718 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 1: Quad one and Quad two competition this year. But overall, 719 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 1: when you look holistically at their strength of schedule, not great, 720 00:32:58,120 --> 00:32:59,959 Speaker 1: but they're the best team in America in terms of 721 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 1: road RPI. So every time I bring something up, there's 722 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,560 Speaker 1: a counterballance. That is the price rate to get involved 723 00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:05,880 Speaker 1: with them. 724 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,920 Speaker 2: No, I just I don't believe in West Virginia and overall, 725 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 2: I just don't believe in Big twelve teams at all. 726 00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,520 Speaker 2: Unless your name is TCU in Kansas State and you're 727 00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,440 Speaker 2: coming to Arkansas for a super regional. I just don't 728 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 2: say I don't like any big twelve teams long term 729 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 2: for futures. West Virginia has not played a soul. I 730 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:23,920 Speaker 2: look at the record, I look at the r P, 731 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 2: I look at everything, but they just haven't really played anybody. 732 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 2: Arizona is potentially the only team to make the postseason 733 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 2: that are that are that's been on their schedule, and 734 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 2: the Wildcats took that series. They have a three seven 735 00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:36,280 Speaker 2: e r A and a five to six x FIP 736 00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 2: that that's a huge no, thank you for me. Two 737 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:40,400 Speaker 2: runs two run different between the area and x FIP. 738 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:42,600 Speaker 2: I'm just not there with West Virginia. And you know 739 00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,280 Speaker 2: they're gonna be a nice team and they're gonna host, 740 00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,480 Speaker 2: and you know they're gonna host up there, and after 741 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 2: they get done with that, they're probably not going to 742 00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:50,440 Speaker 2: make a top eight seed and they're gonna have to 743 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:51,960 Speaker 2: go on the road, and that's when things could get 744 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 2: real for the Mountaineers. 745 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 1: You go deep into the Northeast with Yukon. Now, the 746 00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,280 Speaker 1: Huskies have been red hot, albeit against like competition. Their 747 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,040 Speaker 1: bats can continued to carry them. But when was the 748 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 1: last time a team from that far up in the 749 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:05,480 Speaker 1: Northeast made a deep run. 750 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:09,480 Speaker 2: Well, the problem is is I do love Yukon. I 751 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:13,319 Speaker 2: think I've had some sort of future or series. I 752 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,560 Speaker 2: know I've had series plays on Yukon over the previous 753 00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 2: few years because they do. They are stingy, and they 754 00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 2: show up in regionals and they know they cause trouble 755 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:23,600 Speaker 2: and they've made the supers before. So this is a 756 00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:25,920 Speaker 2: program that has the pedigree, that has the history, that's 757 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,800 Speaker 2: done this before. Right now, they're thirty fourth in RPI. 758 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:31,520 Speaker 2: They've won seventeen of their last eighteen games. That's why 759 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 2: you're starting to hear about Yukon starting to float around 760 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 2: with people that talk about college baseball is because seventeen 761 00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:39,080 Speaker 2: of eighteen games they've won. The issues are with the 762 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 2: pitching staff, which is improving, but again, strength to schedule 763 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,239 Speaker 2: era FIP x fip all over six point one and 764 00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 2: the hitting splits are just not good enough to support 765 00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 2: a pitching staff like that. So as much as I 766 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 2: love Yukon, I'm not going to place a future on them, 767 00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 2: but they are definitely a team that I'm going to 768 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 2: tap to see what regional they get put in, to 769 00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,880 Speaker 2: see if there's a path for them to cause some disturbance. 770 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 1: Let's close out with utsc utsa meet meat que up 771 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:08,160 Speaker 1: the brad Pits moneyball clip. What do the Roadrunners do? 772 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:11,400 Speaker 1: They get on base? Is that enough for them to 773 00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 1: make some noise in the NCAA tournament? 774 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,240 Speaker 2: Well that plays, not just a home, that plays everywhere. 775 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,080 Speaker 2: And I think that's really important, is that if you 776 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:21,800 Speaker 2: can get on base, you can cause a lot of problems. Listen, 777 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,440 Speaker 2: if you got some sort of chipoli meal or a 778 00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 2: taco bill, party box money that you want to spend 779 00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:28,839 Speaker 2: tonight and you don't want to do it, I say 780 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:30,879 Speaker 2: go and grab that UTSA one hundred and twenty five 781 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,120 Speaker 2: to one. They're currently projected as a two seed, not 782 00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,440 Speaker 2: even a three, not even a questionable three. As a 783 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,080 Speaker 2: two seed they're projected. They've won twelve of their last 784 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:42,320 Speaker 2: thirteen games. They have great defensive numbers. They're RPI is 785 00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,799 Speaker 2: twenty first. They have the lowest x FIP of any 786 00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,480 Speaker 2: of these four teams that we've talked about. Also, that 787 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 2: two seed that was released by D one Baseball put 788 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 2: them in a regional in Austin against Texas. UTSA already 789 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,480 Speaker 2: played Texas this year and beat them, So I like 790 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 2: UTSA one hundred and twenty five to one. Meet me. 791 00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,840 Speaker 2: Hopefully regional location plays in they get sent to Austin. 792 00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,200 Speaker 2: That would be real trouble for the Longhorns. One hundred 793 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,560 Speaker 2: and twenty five to one. Little couch change on it. 794 00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:09,799 Speaker 2: I like it, Meet me, Meet me. 795 00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:13,200 Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode. Thanks again for joining us, 796 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,640 Speaker 1: and special thanks my co host Colin Wilson for walking 797 00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,720 Speaker 1: us through his future's portfolio as well as every single 798 00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,320 Speaker 1: matchup Thursday through Sunday, and as special thanks to our sponsor, 799 00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,319 Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy. I'm your host Mike Calabres will return next 800 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,879 Speaker 1: week for more coverage on the College Diamond. Good luck 801 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:29,600 Speaker 1: with all your bets and we'll see you next time 802 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:47,799 Speaker 1: here and Big Bets on Campus Action Network reminds you 803 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:51,800 Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about 804 00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,799 Speaker 1: has a gambling problem. Help is available twenty four to 805 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:56,719 Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred Gambler