WEBVTT - Traders Prepare for A Data Packed Week 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.160 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.199 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. David Bianco 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:51.040 over this right now, CEO America's DWS. 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:52.880 How'd your view change after last week? 0:00:53.760 --> 0:00:56.960 Not much a little bit of a surprise with the 0:00:57.040 --> 0:01:00.880 overall reaction on the legendary yen care trade and you 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:04.320 know the way it really hit Japanese stocks. We do 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.960 think there's a buy an opportunity in Japan and I think, 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:10.720 you know, the yen carry trade is important, but American investors, 0:01:10.720 --> 0:01:13.880 particularly American technology investors, they really shouldn't be scared off 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:17.800 by that phenomenon. I would tell you that while we 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:21.600 were watching global markets and all kinds of other issues 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:24.360 in the world, we were paying attention to earning season. 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:27.440 I'm going to say right up front that I have 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:30.720 a different take on the second quarter earning season than 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:33.880 what many are saying. While it's true that the growth 0:01:33.920 --> 0:01:37.000 overall is strong ten percent year on year, and even 0:01:37.040 --> 0:01:40.160 excluding the Magnificent seven Grade eight it's up about four percent, 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:43.960 and we haven't seen growth outside of the magate Magnificent 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:48.800 seven Grade eight for a while, there's no rotation or 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.680 change in earnings growth leadership, and I don't think we 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:55.480 should have a change in performance leadership either. Actually, the 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:59.640 earnings growth is still really mostly tech and communications and 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:04.400 still the same leading very big companies out of financials, 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:08.560 certain ones that are healthcare. Really it's been mixed elsewhere, 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:12.720 and it's been still weak at consumer goods, and it's 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:16.640 getting weaker at consumer services now. So I have to 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:19.800 say we have not seen a broadening of earning strength 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:22.040 at the SMP, not at the wrust of two thousand 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:23.120 and either are still sluggish. 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:25.920 So as we think about performance in a stock market 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:29.840 going forward, will it be the same old leaders the 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:33.080 big tech names and some of the other sectorship, Is 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:35.280 that still going to be what's going to lead this 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:35.919 market higher. 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:39.519 Yeah, and it's hard to get a change in leadership 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:42.280 without a little bit of volatility along the way. Regime 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:47.080 chains changes don't tend to be entirely peaceful. But I 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:49.799 think the market overall has a little bit more downside 0:02:49.840 --> 0:02:53.359 into the autumn, about five percent. I think this is 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:55.320 still a good time to lighten up and prepare for 0:02:55.440 --> 0:03:00.160 some better opportunities in the autumn. But financials, healthcare, those 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:02.399 are things we still like. We still like utilities too. 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:06.960 That's doing very well. Defense stocks, But when it comes 0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:09.400 to auto retailers, transportation, we don't see it yet. 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:11.480 Well, I haven't asked this question in age is up 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:15.520 one bent crewed eighty dollars fifty four cents. 0:03:16.280 --> 0:03:18.400 Nobody's talking energy all my radars. 0:03:18.680 --> 0:03:22.120 Yeah, it's been quiet there. The energy sector was not 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:25.040 an earnings growth contributor during the second quarter. But now 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.280 the energy sector is no longer that big of a sector, 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.880 not even that big of an earnings contributor anymore. Like, 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:35.080 I think energy earnings will be flatish for the rest 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:38.360 of the year and for possibly quite a long time. Nevertheless, 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:42.720 it does represent value, it does it's cheap, It represents 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:46.080 a geopolitical hedge that could be useful in the coming 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:50.640 months and years, but it's not exactly the most promising 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:51.760 high return industry. 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:54.360 So how about valuation here? I'm just looking. 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:57.880 You know, when we did trough that Monday morning last week, 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.200 we were down eight nine percent on S ANDP. That's 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:02.520 recent high. We've bounced back a little bit here. How 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:03.800 do you think that valuation. 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:06.800 Still very demanding even with the little bit of a 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:09.800 retreat in ten year yields and ten year tips yields, 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:14.040 which is welcome. It's very welcome to see tenure yields 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:18.240 drop during an equity sell off rather than climb and 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:20.359 be a cause of inequity sell off. So we're getting 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:24.360 that diversification across asset classes. But it also then leaves 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:27.599 us with, well, is this decline in yields temporary on 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:29.760 the idea that people are still nervous about things like 0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:33.920 getting carry trade online or geopolitical It's hard to know, 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:37.240 and I'm still doubtful that the tenure yield is going 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:40.040 to stay under four percent outside of our session. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:43.279 Okay, So I guess the questionnaire is what are we 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:45.719 doing on the fixed income space here? Do we sit 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:48.080 in my two year treasury at four point zero six percent, 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:50.080 or do I take some credit risk here? 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:50.840 Do someone? Yeah? 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.200 So up until recently, there are really good opportunities at 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:58.200 the two year three year duration point. I might even 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:02.240 go shorter than that now to year. I still think 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:04.279 there are opportunities in muni markets. 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:05.599 Nice, that's what we're talking about. 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:10.560 Yeah, yeah, I know it's not like but and there 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:12.359 you I think. I think in the muni market you 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:16.240 can take some credit risk and even some maturity, longer 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:19.360 duration risk. And for those who believe that tax rates 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:21.200 are going up, but you'll you'll value that part of 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:21.799 the portfolio. 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:25.320 You have a confidence like you're not a strategy sure, 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:28.279 a guy that runs real money. But the answer is 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.720 people have a confidence when they say the SMP are 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:34.600 your twelve month target is fifty six hundred? Was that 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:36.400 confidence shattered last week? 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:40.640 There's been plenty of things to be not confident about 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:43.719 the past year and a few years. And thank you. 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:45.839 I you know, we we do run real money at 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:49.400 d WS, and I still think of myself as a 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:52.440 macro minded intrinsic investor and spend a lot of time 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:54.720 focused on the S and P five hundred and it's 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.440 fundamental drivers like earnings, and you know, trying to give 0:05:57.440 --> 0:06:01.200 indications sort portfolio managers with sector industry references. But the 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:04.400 point is this is not a time to be confident 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:07.400 about anything. There's a lot of uncertainty out there from 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:10.520 the basics, will earnings, will we have a recession or not? 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:14.640 Will there be a change in earnings leadership, performance leadership 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:18.120 or not? And we do have an important election ahead 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:20.000 and still an uncertain world. 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:22.960 David Bianco, thank you so much, thank you, greatly appreciate. 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:27.200 With DWS, everybody's got to like republish. It's August, and 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:28.960 you're like, you're supposed to wait, well, we're going to 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:31.560 put out a big piece six days after Labor Day. 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.680 And I'm like, okay, we'll write it now after what. 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:35.559 We heard last week. 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:38.120 And you know, are you do you? Are you taking 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:40.200 an you work for a German bank? Are you taking 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:40.880 a month off? 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:42.520 A couple of weeks? 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:47.800 And those are Wall Street weeks. You know, I got 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:49.640 to call it on Monday. But we're fine. 0:06:50.200 --> 0:07:03.080 David Bianco, thank you, thank you. Ellen Wild is definitive 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:05.719 her book Saudi. All I can say is read it. 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:10.360 Senior fellow at the Atlanta Council. Ellen, there's a decline 0:07:10.400 --> 0:07:14.440 in commodities across the board. Obviously China slow down. How 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:20.239 linked is your world of oil with a general commodity malaise. 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:22.800 So it's definitely linked, but it's definitely not one to 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:26.400 one because as we've seen, oil is rising now and 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:29.480 I think that has a lot to do with concerns 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:34.120 over tensions in the Middle East and also with the 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:38.280 news that we've got a whole bunch of draws in 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:41.960 terms of the stockpiles in the US, and so that's 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:44.840 a signal that consumption is doing well, that demand is 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:48.120 doing pretty well, although there are some hints that maybe 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:51.440 it's not quite as good as we think, mostly because 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:55.360 refineries are not running at full speed. There really isn't 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:57.240 an indication that they need to, and so we're just 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:00.520 kind of drawing more on our stock piles. 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:03.040 And then you've got economic data. 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:07.680 Recently, it seems that traders have taken the recent unemployment 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:11.320 data as very heartening in terms of the economy, though 0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:13.960 personally I would caution against reading too much into any 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:15.200 kind of unemployment data. 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:19.440 So what's really driving the show here today for global 0:08:19.560 --> 0:08:23.200 cru to Ellen, is it demand concerns. Is it supply 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:25.280 what's really moving these markets here today? 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.200 That's that's a good question. I think it's both. 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:32.120 I think it's really concerns in the Middle East right now, 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:33.640 because you've. 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:35.600 Got it's definitely got. Demand is always an issue. 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:38.880 Although you'd think that if OPAK is trimming it's uh, 0:08:39.040 --> 0:08:41.000 you know, demand forecast for the rest of the year, 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:44.760 that that would spell problems for oil. Although it could 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:47.880 be that people think that because OPAK is trimming a 0:08:47.960 --> 0:08:51.959 demand forecast, that the OPEC countries will then decide not 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:54.640 to increase production ever so slightly in October, which will 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:56.080 then help keep oil prices up. 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:57.040 So that's definitely a. 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:59.200 Possibility, and I do think that that's really a big 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:01.120 move to keep an eye out for. Is what is 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:05.320 OPAK going to do because they are set to increase supply, 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:09.040 not by all that much, but definitely increased supply starting 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:12.599 in October. But if the economic signs aren't there that 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:15.480 the market can handle an increase, then they will be 0:09:15.559 --> 0:09:18.160 facing a lot of pressure to roll that back. 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:23.760 So who has power now, OPECK plus the United States 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:27.120 with a huge oil success we've had, or the market. 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:29.679 I think it's definitely the market. 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:31.679 In this case, I think the market is really running 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:34.520 the show here and Opek is just kind of tweaking 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:35.240 here there. 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:37.680 And in terms of the United States, it's. 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:40.320 Kind of ignoring the market in a sense. You know, 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:44.480 oil production is high, oil production is strong, but that 0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:48.000 has a lot to do with exports. The fact that 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:52.800 Europe is basically sanctioning all of Russian oil has definitely 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:56.640 been a boon for the US export market because you know, 0:09:56.880 --> 0:10:00.000 they are available, they've got oil, we can export it. 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:04.560 And in addition, there's no impediment really other than you know, 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:07.920 anything happening in the Gulf of Mexico potentially any kind 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:09.239 of hurricanes to getting. 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:11.160 That oil to Europe, the same way there is. 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:12.800 In the Middle East when you've got to use thee 0:10:12.800 --> 0:10:15.120 As Canal, you've got to get through the Persian Gulf. 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:18.640 You know, those are real hotspots right now, and we 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:21.000 don't really see that in terms of US exports. 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:25.880 So Ellen has Europe effectively weaned itself completely off of 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.080 Russian energy. I mean, we're a couple of years into 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:32.000 this war here. I know there's big, big concerns that 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:34.520 first winter, but it's they seem to have kind of 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:35.560 found other sources. 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.840 I guess that is a really good question. 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:44.680 And I think that this this independence from Russian energy 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:46.840 has not really been put to the test because we 0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:50.480 haven't seen a difficult winter. If the coming winter is 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.880 somewhat more difficult, somewhat colder than I think, we'll really 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:56.360 be putting that to the test. But really what's happened 0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.880 is American liquefied natural gas came to the rescue and 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.920 we were able to really increase our exports of liquified 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:05.480 natural gas to meet that demand from Europe. And now 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.439 we even see Britain thinking about putting in an LNG 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.800 import terminal just so it doesn't have to rely on 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.200 the rest of Europe to get natural gas. 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.000 Really, natural gas is a huge. 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.240 Issue here and I don't think that we have seen 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:21.040 the last of this story. 0:11:21.280 --> 0:11:24.800 So the forty seven meetings I went to forty seven 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:30.040 years ago on LLNG and it never happened. Can you 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:35.480 now say the LNG market is distributing and supplying and 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:39.960 demanding what the promises were thirty and forty years ago. 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:41.960 I do think so. 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:44.680 And you know it's funny because I remember back in 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:49.120 you know, twenty thirteen, when I was speaking of some 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:52.080 some oil guys and they were like, Nah, this We're 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:53.480 never going to be exporting LNG. 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:55.040 It's just it's not going to happen. 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:57.840 Well, it's happening, okay, Ellen Wild, thank you so much, 0:11:57.880 --> 0:11:58.760 greatly appreciate it. 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:00.959 Ellen Wild, Atlantic Council There. 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.840 I'm really excited about this conversation because I can tell 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:11.920 you on an HR basis, you talk about a career shift, 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:16.760 this is truly on Global Wall Street, the mother of 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:20.720 all career shifts. She was unhappy with her corner office 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:23.560 at the new Tower of JP Morgan, so she said, 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:26.720 forget that, I'm going with a ute of America. 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:31.600 Steph Guild. What was it like your first meeting with Robinhood? 0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:34.480 Did you walk in, like, you know, with the basic 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:36.800 JP Morgan blazer look? 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:37.680 And they said what? 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:40.800 At first, I was like, who are you talking about? 0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:44.559 Who had the mother of all career shifts? I actually 0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:47.880 was told in advance, don't wear a suit, really make 0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:50.760 sure you put a T shirt on, and so I 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:53.600 had to, you know, I thought about that and I said, wow, 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:56.760 this really like it was that outfit recommendation was the 0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.600 reinforcing to me that this was quite a shift. 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:01.320 And it took me a why. 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:04.520 I mean, it took me a while to make the 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:05.600 decision to tell us. 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:08.079 Your obser I mean, I mean, frankly, seriously, folks, this 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:10.200 could be a three hour conversation. 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:11.160 For Global Wall Street. 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:15.720 What do you do in strategy at Robinhood that is 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:19.720 different than doing strategy the big five banks? 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:20.560 Yeah? 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.719 I think, well, your clients are very different. I mean, 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.600 so I spent eleven years in the private bank at 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:28.959 JP Morgan and then ten years in the asset management 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:31.439 business prior to that, mostly in the US equity part 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:35.320 of it, and so I I you're working with people 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.680 who either have spent their entire years getting advice from 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.160 really good people or they themselves have been managing money. 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:45.280 So when I made the switch, I my job to 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:49.840 me is twofold. One is contributing to bringing really strong, 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:53.960 innovative investment products to a customer base that hasn't always 0:13:53.960 --> 0:14:00.320 had access to everything. And second is teaching there are 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:02.360 a customer base about the markets, but in a way 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:05.960 that isn't just explaining terms like actually using the real 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:09.920 terms and not using all these you know, oh you're 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:12.240 in a garden like I would rather use the term. 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:16.360 So when they watch Bloomberg. They understand what the host this. 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:18.840 Is true value of the conversation for me to make 0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:21.760 jokes about you and the memes tas because Lisa's Lisa's 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:23.680 kids are trading Robinhood off the couch. 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:24.280 Oh nice. 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:25.640 It's how do you. 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:30.560 Get well meaning, well intentioned people to pull out the 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:34.720 time frame to long term thirty day investment that was 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:36.840 a joke. How do you get them to pull out 0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:39.040 to a longer term investment perspective. 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:44.160 I just think it's a matter of education, meeting them 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:47.560 where they are, and they are on social media, they 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:49.720 are on YouTube, They're on you know, my kids, I 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.160 have kids do there. They learn everything from YouTube. They 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:53.960 know more than me about some things because of it. 0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:58.680 And I also think that you need to you need 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:02.280 to they're gonna. I think they've all learned a lot. 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:04.320 Actually when we when we look at like the way 0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:06.320 that they trade and the way that they invest. We've 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:08.360 got the Robin Hood investor index, and we get to 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.040 kind of look at what they're doing regularly. They you know, 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:15.160 our average age customer is actually increased. And I think 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:17.320 with time to. 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:21.160 What fourteen out to Lisa, how old is your daughter seventy. 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:24.120 She's seventy. But my sons in his twenties and he's 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:26.400 doing that. Yeah, so he's going on, but he's looking 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:29.360 to the social media. How you're talking about So how 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:30.120 do you find. 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:31.600 Like, I mean, our average age is thirty three? 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:36.120 Okay, okay, But what advice do you have for them? 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:37.520 I mean a lot of these young kids who are 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:39.200 going on what advice do you have for them? Who 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:42.120 are going on social media and they're just believing whatever 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:42.560 they hear. 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:46.800 Yeah, just be curious non stop, be like why did 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.920 they say that? You know, what are they what's in 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:51.720 it for them? Like every I mean even when I 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:55.640 read things from analysts or even from hedgephen managers, I think, 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:58.840 you know, what's what's in their book? Like what's helping them? 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:03.320 Just always be curious and wondering, like why is someone 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:05.680 saying that? And what would the other side of that say. 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:08.920 I just think that's like who is a Peter Lynch 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.280 that said, you know, if you got through fifth grade math, 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:15.120 like you can analyze the company. It's you can do it. 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.000 You just have to spend the time doing it. And 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:20.800 that's why we you know, I try to explain things 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:22.000 in the context of the market. 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:23.600 Like I have a weekly blog and I do this. 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:26.120 You have a weekly blog that's really good stuff. Killed 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:27.960 what did you learn and what would you like The. 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:31.000 Message to the robin Hood audience off of Vix at 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.200 sixty five closing the week. 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:36.760 At twenty one, Well, maybe you should go to sleep 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.760 on Sunday and wake up on Friday. But besides that, 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:43.160 I think, actually, like when VIX gets to those levels, 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:47.520 it's usually historically an opportunity. I mean, I'm not saying 0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:49.800 you should always jump in, because sometimes it is a 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:51.560 part of a greater problem. But if you take a 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.000 step back and looked at what was happening in the world, 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:57.880 I just think the markets was we're throwing a temper tantrum, right, 0:16:58.040 --> 0:16:59.960 just like they did in like December of twenty eighteen 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.400 when the FED wanted to keep raising rates and the 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:05.480 market said no, you should not, and they, like the 0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:08.080 FED listened and I mean, you said, you have kids. 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:09.800 When you didn't give them what they wanted, what did 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:13.119 they do? They threw a temper tantrum. And you know, 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:15.840 also the Fed I think in twenty eighteen taught the 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:19.000 markets that like, well, we listened to you, and so 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:20.800 I think they were trying to do that this time, 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:22.399 like you need to cut, you need to cut, and 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:24.000 you didn't commit enough to us. 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:30.119 Tell me about particularly with Robin Hood's age thirty three demo, 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:33.000 whatever that demo was, and that's open to debate, But 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:38.480 tell me how you, as an adult blog advise on 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.600 meme stocks because we're sitting here as a comedy act 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:45.280 making jokes about it, except there's some people making money 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:49.000 and there's a lot of people getting crushed by the volatility. 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:51.280 Yeah, stocks have to know. 0:17:51.440 --> 0:17:53.280 I mean a couple of things. One is that like 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:57.960 I think the memestock stuff, we're the vehicle. We don't 0:17:57.960 --> 0:17:59.800 come out and say, like, go out and do this 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:03.560 right like. But secondly, I think they're I think it's 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:08.399 kind of interesting that you are watching a generation of 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:14.480 people express their views and they are they fundamentally are 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:18.399 changing the makeup of a company. Right Like if you 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:20.800 think about some of these companies, like they have been 0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:23.440 able to raise capital and they've been able to take 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:26.600 down debt, and it's they could end up being like 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.840 completely turned around companies because of it, because of their 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:33.320 shareholder base believing in them and whatever that means for them. 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:36.960 But you have to, you know, stay diversified. I always say, 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:39.080 like everyone's money is kind of like a pyramid. You 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:42.040 need to have an emergency cash, you know, just so 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:44.720 you lose your job, whatever happens. Like you've got that 0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:49.080 for at least six months. Then the next layer make 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:51.720 sure you have some diversification and our customer base. Like 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:55.000 we were seeing it this past you know, week of volatility. 0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:57.640 They were they weren't just buying the names that are 0:18:57.640 --> 0:18:59.520 in our robin Hood Investor index, they were also buying 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:01.520 broad based index funds. 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:04.720 This is really using is like a. 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:08.000 Way to add to it. And then after that, you know, yes, 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:11.120 like invest in your aspirational things because I think if 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:14.080 you always just ever say fully diversified, you're never gonna 0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:16.439 see it. You have to take risk to get return 0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:17.480 that always comes with it. 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:20.360 That's the smartest thing I've heard in the show. It's 0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:23.960 Monday for the week. This has been great. Steph Wild, 0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:27.119 thank you so much with robin Hood running strategy for 0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:27.680 them in a blog. 0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:30.119 What's the name you have some fans investors guild just 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:31.000 like my last. 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:38.000 Oh I get the medieval positively medieval, very good stuff 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:42.000 and gil with Investor skills branding. Which social is the 0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:43.359 biggest reach for Robinhood. 0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:48.040 Well, we have just Robinhood app on social, and then 0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:50.240 I have Steph guild n y c myself. 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:53.439 Okay, like, are you working TikTok every day? 0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:53.960 I don't go. 0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:59.840 I'm on Instagram and X I heard you talking about it. 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:01.119 I'm just learning how to do these. 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:04.600 Yeah, I'm sitting over here. You know, Paul saved me today. 0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:06.840 I'm over here trying to figure out how to put 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:09.000 out Instagram. Don't be a stranger stuff Caill, Thank you 0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:09.400 so much. 0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:10.119 With Robin. 0:20:20.480 --> 0:20:22.320 You tell a look at the front pages of Lisa 0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:25.439 Matteo hour. It's brought to you by ib k R 0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:29.920 with the Interactive Brokers Forecast Trader. You can trade your 0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:34.720 views on key economic and climate indicators. Visit ibkr dot 0:20:34.720 --> 0:20:39.800 com slash forecast and get started today. 0:20:40.119 --> 0:20:43.040 Incredibly busy weekend. Lisa. I saw her slave in a way. 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:44.840