1 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving, guys, what's up? Welcome into a new episode 2 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perreltz. 3 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all of my socials 4 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,240 Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt and Boy. 5 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: It is a busy morning. It is a busy day. 6 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: This is one of the best football betting days of 7 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: the year. And to celebrate all of these opportunities, we've 8 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 1: got the biggest card I can remember for a day 9 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: that is not a Sunday. Now, on Sundays, we normally 10 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: pile up and we have, you know, three to four 11 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 1: prop bets, and we've got three or four different plays 12 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: on a Sunday, okay, But because this is a mini 13 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 1: Sunday with three games today, all standalone, all that run 14 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:01,279 Speaker 1: into each other, I have got a bet and a 15 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: prop bet on each game, and I have a teaser 16 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 1: to give you guys coming up here for the podcast today. 17 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 1: Because the menu is a little bit stretched, and because 18 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: it's not a Sunday, the prop bets are going to 19 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: be shrunk down to half unit place. We're going to 20 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 1: bet to win a half a unit because I don't 21 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: really want to get completely exposed here, and frankly, it's 22 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 1: just you know I again. It's it's a Thursday. We 23 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: have games on Friday. We have a huge college slate Tomorrow, 24 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: we have a huge college slate on Saturday. We have 25 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: a huge slate on Sunday as well. So I don't 26 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: want to get over my skis here and blow the 27 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: week if we don't do well today. So I'm gonna 28 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 1: normally I'm been betting full units on the props, We're 29 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: going to shrink them down to win a half a 30 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 1: unit on the props coming up here for today, and 31 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: then add a plus money three game NFL teaser, which 32 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: is pretty cool. But before I give you the place, 33 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: let's tell you about our friends at hard Rock. If 34 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: you got have not gone and taken advantage of the 35 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: five dollars bet offer it is live. You can do 36 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 1: it here during this holiday weekend. We all know today 37 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: is about family, food and football, and we're going to 38 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: celebrate today with a bunch of plays. You can do 39 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: that at hard Rock bet five dollar bet. If it hits, 40 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: you can not only get your winnings, but you also 41 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Good 42 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 1: offer there on a holiday Thursday in the hard Rock 43 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: Stats hubs available for all the trends, streaks, and stats 44 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 1: if you guys want to check it out. Plus this 45 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 1: week on hard Rock Bet there are three fifty percent 46 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 1: profit boosts, one for each game here today on Thanksgiving 47 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 1: you can boost your same game, parlay you your SGP 48 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: max or and your bets will pay extra winnings. Also 49 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: new promos every day, So go and download the betting pro. 50 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: So going download the hard rock bet app and make 51 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: your first deposit two day. Okay, let's start with the 52 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:58,679 Speaker 1: first game, Green Bay and Detroit. There's some really fascinating 53 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 1: stats here at this game that I think you have 54 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: to take into account now. One the biggest stat everyone's 55 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: going to jump on is the way that favorites have 56 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: dominated here on Thanksgiving. Favorites have historically been very profitable. 57 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: Since two thousand and four. Favorites are forty and twenty 58 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: against the spread. If you extend that to being straight up, 59 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 1: it's fifty one to nine straight up here on Thanksgiving 60 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: for favorites. Favorites of seven points are more on Thanksgiving 61 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 1: are twenty five and ten against the number. The Ravens 62 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: will fit that coming up here at the end of 63 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 1: the podcast. The Chiefs are the only team that's favored 64 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 1: on the road. Road favors are twenty five and one 65 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 1: straight up, twenty five and one straight up in on 66 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving twenty and six against the spread since two thousand 67 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: and four. Pretty impressive. But the Lions and the Cowboys 68 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: this is a while. It's been a bit the lines in. 69 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: The Cowboys have not combined to both cover on Thanksgiving 70 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: on the same day since two thousand and one, and 71 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: they have having gone two and oh straight up plus 72 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: two and oho against the number on Thanksgiving since nineteen 73 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: ninety four. So keep in mind, just from a trend perspective, 74 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: there's some interesting things. Green Bay under Matt Lafleoor is 75 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 1: a dog for the first time this season. They faced 76 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 1: the Eagles in the playoffs last year lost they were 77 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: a dog. Under Matt Lafloor, green Bay has gone eighteen 78 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 1: six and one as a dog of three points or 79 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: more fourteen and four ats as a dog of more 80 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: than three points, but they aren't more than three points. 81 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 1: It's two and a half today, two and a half 82 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: or three depending. 83 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 2: On the book. 84 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: Laflour is the only head coach in the Super Bowl 85 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 1: era with a winning record as an underdog. So it 86 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: is a little bit of a difficult game to handicap 87 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: because it won. It's a divisional game. Two, both these 88 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: teams need it. Three, it's Jared Goff at home. It's Detroit, 89 00:04:55,480 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 1: who has been very profitable recently on Thanksgiving. Okay, it's 90 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: not that often that we see Detroit being on Thanksgiving, 91 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: but when the Lions are backed, and they are being 92 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 1: backed by the public today, the Lions have not done 93 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: well when they've been backed by the public twelve times 94 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving since two thousand and five, they're oh and 95 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: twelve straight up, oh in twelve straight up, three and 96 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: nine against the spread in those games. That's not what 97 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: we want here as we're going to look to come 98 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: in here. But Detroit when they're favored since two thousand 99 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,600 Speaker 1: and four, they're five and one straight up and the 100 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 1: number being two and a half. I got to go 101 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: with the Dan Campbell trends. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 102 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,919 Speaker 1: nineteen five and one against the number in the game 103 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: following a game which the Lions have failed to cover. 104 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,919 Speaker 1: That's the best Ats mark since he took over in 105 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. Only you only little head of John Harbaugh, 106 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: who is also in the same spot coming up this week. 107 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: I am going to come in here and I'm going 108 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: to take the Lions here at home. I think the 109 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: home favorite kicks in. It's a small price. I think 110 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: the Lions put it together here. I'm not in love 111 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,279 Speaker 1: with this Packers team. I'm not gonna lie. I haven't 112 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: I love them early. I have not liked what I've 113 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: seen late. 114 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 2: This is a game. 115 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: I think the Packers are gonna have a struggle with 116 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,119 Speaker 1: with this. And look, I think you can bet the under. 117 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: I think the under is live, but I can't do 118 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: it with Detroit at home. I just every time I've 119 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 1: gone I thought about betting the under, and I think 120 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:22,919 Speaker 1: the Lions and the under is a good play. But 121 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: I think Kooby the Lions and the over, it could 122 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: be the Packers in the under. So I just I'm 123 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 1: staying away from totals today because it's a funky day. 124 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: It's a holiday. We've seen overs hit so consistently on Thanksgiving. 125 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: We've seen it be a very profitable trend to bet totals, 126 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: and I just don't really love the idea of betting 127 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 1: totals today. I just I'm a little bit hesitant just 128 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:46,039 Speaker 1: as to how things are going to go. So instead, 129 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 1: I'm gonna come in here. I'm going to pay the 130 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: two and a half with the Lions at home, follow 131 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: the home team trend, follow the follow the favorite trend 132 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: Lions minus two and a half. But on the flip side, 133 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: just in case I'm completely dead wrong about that prop, 134 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 1: bet cheat Sheets Josh Jacobs to go over his rushing 135 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: and receiving prop. It's an eighty percent cover probability, a 136 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: plus thirty nine ev expected value, play, a five star rating, 137 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: and it's projected to fly over the number that is 138 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 1: currently being set at for Josh Jacobs. You can shop 139 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 1: around here. Seventy eight and a half is pretty much 140 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: the consensus. There's some exchanges that are at seventy seven 141 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: and a half, but mostly it's seventy eight and a half. 142 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: You can find that at hard Rock bad at ESPN, bet, 143 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: at bet MGM, you find that at a bunch of 144 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 1: different books where you have Josh Jacobs rushing and receiving 145 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: prop over seventy eight and a half. And remember, take 146 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 1: a look at the number here at mine one eighteen. 147 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: I'm only betting it to win a half a unit Okay, 148 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: you can bet it full unit if you want, not 149 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 1: only betting half a unit. I think Josh Jacobs is 150 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: a big game here against this Lions defense, posts, catching 151 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: and receiving. 152 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 2: He is cleared to play. He is good to go. 153 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs over seventy eight and a half rushing and 154 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 1: receiving yards at minus one eighteen and that's a ero 155 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: point six unit play to win a half unit. Coming back, 156 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: game number two, it's the Cowboys and the Chiefs. There 157 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 1: are some wild trends going into this game here, because 158 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: you've got a Chief team that Patrick Mahomes on short 159 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 1: rest is nineteen and three straight up in those games. 160 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: Mahomes and the Chiefs have won thirteen straight games dating 161 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 1: back to twenty twenty one when they're on short rest. 162 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 1: The Cowboys, on the other hand, things have not gone 163 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,680 Speaker 1: well for them on Thanksgiving. They're two and four ATS 164 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: over the last six games on Thanksgiving. They are three 165 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: and eleven ATS over the last fourteen Thanksgivings dating back 166 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 1: to twenty eleven and eight and twelve ats on Thanksgiving 167 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: since two thousand and five. I already gave you the 168 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: favorite trends, so this is not good. The Cowboys are 169 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:53,239 Speaker 1: one in seven against the first half spread since twenty seventeen, 170 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:55,839 Speaker 1: and they're two and thirteen in the first half on 171 00:08:55,880 --> 00:09:00,080 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving since twenty ten. Indoors, Patrick Mahomes has been a 172 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: killer fourteen and two straight up in his NFL career. 173 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: He lost outright in the Super Bowl last year to 174 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: the Eagles in New Orleans and lost to the Colts 175 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 1: on the road back in twenty twenty two. Is the 176 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: only two games he has lost on the road. However, 177 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 1: Dak Prescott has started seven games on Thanksgiving. He's four 178 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: and three straight up. Not great against the number two 179 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: and five, but they're dogs. They're not normally dogs. That's 180 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: the thing. The Cowboys are traditionally favored by the public, 181 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,960 Speaker 1: and traditionally they are catching. They're laying points, They're not 182 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: catching points. That's the big difference here. That's the hook 183 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 1: that I find this game to be so fascinating because 184 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: Dak Prescott since twenty twenty two has started five home 185 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 1: games in Dallas early in the week, meaning Thursday or Friday. 186 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: The Cowboys are five and oh straight up in those games. 187 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: I think the combination of the hook here at three 188 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,680 Speaker 1: and a half, the combination of the Cowboys at home 189 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: on a short week, after what their defense has done 190 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: the last two weeks, and the fact that the Chiefs 191 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: have a tough time winning close games, and the Chiefs 192 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 1: have struggled in one win games in one score games. 193 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: I just think this again is another opportunity for the 194 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: Cowboys if their offense can score. 195 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 2: Now. 196 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: I don't think Mahomes and company are gonna put up 197 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 1: a huge number here today. Okay, they're gonna score, but 198 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: not only they about twenty eight points. I think that's 199 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 1: going to be the number here. Twenty eight points is 200 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:32,839 Speaker 1: what the Cowboys need to get to. I see a 201 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: lot of people betting the over. Okay, I get it, 202 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: Cowboys home games, their defense, they're not buying it. 203 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 2: I've heard from multiple people. 204 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: That this is a you know, this is a mirage 205 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 1: that this Cowboys team is not this good. Okay, I'm 206 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 1: going to back it. I've been backing the Cowboys all year. 207 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: I've been higher on the Cowboys than most. I'm combiny 208 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: and taking the Cowboys at plus three and a half. 209 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: I want the hook. You have to have the hook. 210 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: Got to have the hook at three and a half. 211 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: But the Cowboys think we'll be live to win the game. 212 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: Think it's gonna be the game of the day. I 213 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 1: think this is going to be an awesome game back 214 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 1: and forth. Could be the last team has the football, 215 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: could even be going to overtime. Okay, I think this 216 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: is going to be a war. Both these teams are 217 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 1: absolutely desperate for this win, like desperate, desperate, desperate for 218 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:15,679 Speaker 1: this win. And I think we're gonna see an awesome 219 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 1: football game coming up here between Dallas and the Chiefs. 220 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 1: I'll take the points home dog on Thanksgiving. Yes, Cowboys 221 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 1: plus three and a half. If it's wrong, it's wrong 222 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 1: prop bet that I want to get into Xavier Worthy 223 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: and this shouldn't stun anybody given what we've seen out 224 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: of this secondary but Xavier Worthy prop bet chi Ici 225 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: loves him from a rushing receiving prop to go over 226 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,559 Speaker 1: forty five and a half rushing and receiving yards seventy 227 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: three percent cover probability. It's a plus thirty seven expected 228 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: value play. It's a five star play up against the 229 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,719 Speaker 1: Cowboys defense that has well, let's be honest, give it 230 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 1: up a bunch of yards running and receiving for receivers. 231 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: Last week against Indiana against Indianapolis rather sorry Indianapolis fifty 232 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: nine for Xavier Worthy. This number hasn't been hit except 233 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: last week against Indianapolis. He hasn't done a great job 234 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: with this twenty five yards receiving three yards rushing against Denver, 235 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: twenty three, twenty three yards receiving three yards rushing against 236 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 1: against the Broncos. But he's expected to have a big, 237 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: big weapon, a big day today for this offense. Prop 238 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet five star play. Let's go with it, 239 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy for the Chiefs to have more than forty 240 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: five and a half rushing and receiving. He's off the 241 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 1: injury report in case you're curious, he's been cleared, so 242 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: he should be good to go. 243 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 2: Here for Patrick. 244 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 1: Mahomes at home in an expected high scoring game with 245 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: a lot of possessions. Bet number three to the Lake game, 246 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,239 Speaker 1: we go with the return of Joe Burrow for the Bengals. 247 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: Bengal fans are so happy to see their quarterback coming back, 248 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: and look, that's a tremendous opportunity for this team to 249 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: get their quarterback back in action to actually have him 250 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 1: be with Chase sorry with with Chase Brown, but also 251 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: but with Jamar Chase and with t Higgins. But Tie 252 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: Higgins is out concussion for him, so that means a 253 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: big use is for Jamar Chase. But I think this 254 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 1: is going to be a big run game. I don't 255 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: think the team wants to put Joe Burrow back there 256 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: in the first game since the turf toe injury. Do 257 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: you want him throwing the ball a ton? That's why 258 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 1: I don't like this game. I've seen a lot of 259 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: people take the points with the Bengals. Their year is over, 260 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 1: they're not playing for anything, They're playing for next year now. 261 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 1: They want to play spoiler. But do you want to 262 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: risk Joe Burrow? So I'm more I think this is 263 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: going to be a conservative game plan for the Bengals. 264 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 1: I think they're going to be cautious here and this 265 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,319 Speaker 1: lets this Ravens defense go to work. I think it 266 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: lets the offense go to work here. This number, I mean, 267 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: I've seen a lot of people I wouldn't take the 268 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 1: Bengals here. This is the Survivor special for everybody who's 269 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 1: still alive and the circus survivor. Everywin's who's having to 270 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: make a play. You know, the Ravens have beaten the 271 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: Bengals four straight times. They're five and one ATS over 272 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 1: the last six games, and the Ravens in Bengals last 273 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 1: nine meetings since twenty twenty one, the overs eight and one, 274 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 1: So that maybe one way of looking. 275 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 2: At this game. 276 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: We want to bet the over, but you know, Joe 277 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: Burrow has not done well against Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson 278 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: is six and one straight up in four and three 279 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 1: against the spread, and that's with a healthy Joe Burrow, 280 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: not an unhealthy Joe Burrow. Ravens have won five games 281 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: in a row here. You know, they opened up the 282 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: year they lost four straight in one in five and 283 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: they've turned it around since nineteen ninety. According to the 284 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: Action Network, teams that are on a five plus game 285 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 1: straight up winning streak with a percentage that's below five 286 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 1: and a half are just seven and twelve straight up 287 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: and six twelve and one against the spread. But this 288 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 1: is a unique year for the Baltimore Ravens. Favorites in 289 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 1: the night game on Thanksgiving is fourteen and four ATS 290 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: since the holiday was adopted for the three game fourmat 291 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: back in two thousand and six. I think that's the 292 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 1: best trend. That's the best number here. I'll lay it 293 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 1: with the Ravens. I think we're going to see a 294 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: pretty much a I don't want to say a blowout, 295 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: but I like Baltimore to win and cover Baltimore minus 296 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: seven for one point one units. And along those same lines, 297 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 1: prop bet cheat sheet likes this, and I'm gonna follow 298 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: the fact that Joe Burrow is not going to be 299 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: asked to throw the ball thirty eight times today. You 300 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 1: can find thirty seven and a half at a variety 301 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 1: of books at hard Rock Bet and bet MGM. I 302 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: just don't think they're going to put him back there 303 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: that many times. I don't think it's worth it. I 304 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: don't think it's safe to do that with this injury. 305 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: It's a turf toe. I mean, you can re injure 306 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: this thing pretty easily, and that derails everything about having 307 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 1: him come back. So I'm going to come in and 308 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 1: take a Joe Burrow under thirty seven and a half 309 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 1: passing attempts today at minus one fifteen. Again, we're betting 310 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: that to win just a half a unit. And the 311 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 1: teaser today is different than normal. It's a three leg 312 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 1: seven point teaser. It's plus money, it involves all three teams, 313 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 1: all three games. And we're going to take a seven 314 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: point number and we're going to and tease the Packers. Okay, 315 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: up to ten, find the three, tease it to ten, 316 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 1: Packers plus ten. Take the Cowboys from three and a 317 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: half and tease them up to ten and a half. 318 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: One score games. That's what the that's what the Chiefs play. 319 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 1: So either side Cowboys win or Chiefs win, but they'll 320 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: win by more than ten. Chiefs plus ten and a half. 321 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 1: And take the Ravens from seven down to a pick 322 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: and the Ravens win the game. You can do a 323 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 1: six point teaser, but I want and get better prices. 324 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 1: But when it gets to nine, I'm a little bit 325 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: hesitant about the Lions and the Packers. I'm gonna be honest. Okay, 326 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 1: nine worries me a little bit. I want ten. I 327 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: want that ten. And since we're doing three legs, we 328 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: can be a little bit greedy on this and take 329 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: it to plus ten and it's plus one twenty. 330 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 2: So you can play around with this if you want. 331 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 1: There's no long teaser, there's no like formulaic type of 332 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: breakdown for this. For me, this is just I want 333 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 1: ten for the Packers on the road against the Lions. 334 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 2: So they don't get shredded. 335 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: And it's plus money, so it's just a one unit 336 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,919 Speaker 1: play at plus one twenty where you have action, you know, 337 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,879 Speaker 1: multiple bets going and I'm kind of thread the needle 338 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: a bit as well. Lay the two and a half 339 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: with the Lions, take the Packers up to ten to ten, 340 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: and have the game fall six, seven, eight, somewhere in 341 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:19,159 Speaker 1: that range. 342 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 2: And that's why I think it's possible as long as 343 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 2: the Lions don't. 344 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 1: If the Lions blow out, the Packers were covered with 345 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: the Lions miss two and a half, so we're covered there. 346 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,640 Speaker 1: So it's a one unit play, it's mins one ten. 347 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 1: So it's a little bit of a because I don't 348 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 1: fully know what's going to happen with that Packers Lions game. 349 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:37,919 Speaker 1: Let's have it be a Packers win by set, but 350 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 1: by a Lions win by seven. That would be perfect 351 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 1: that were to happen, and then we go to the 352 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: Cowboy game and if it all rolls to the Ravens 353 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 1: and then if you have you know, the Cowboys cover 354 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: the ten and a half and the Packers covered ten. 355 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 1: It's much similar to what happened yesterday where we went 356 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: two and two, and if you guys remember I don't 357 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: actually didn't put that slide up. I'm sorry about that. 358 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: But Tennessee law like I thought they could to Kansas, right, 359 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: I said, go ahead and get involved with Kansas. So 360 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 1: you should have been able to hedge off that because 361 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: Vandy Iowa State in Houston all one, so you should 362 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 1: be able to hedge off of that. Andrew Nemhart came 363 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: in the over one and a half goals came in 364 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: for Vegas and Ottawa Pistons went down. My Celtics snapped 365 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 1: the streak, so it was two and two down point one. 366 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: It was like a nothing day. So we completely wash 367 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: of a day yesterday. But very similarly, if we're rolling 368 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 1: all the way to the night game and we cover 369 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: the first two legs of the teaser and we go 370 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,120 Speaker 1: into the Ravens with a pick, if at any point, 371 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 1: you know, the number gets to be completely ridiculous and 372 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,360 Speaker 1: it's you know, the Ravens are up big, up by 373 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,959 Speaker 1: ten fourteen points at one point, well then you can 374 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: come in potentially and bet the bet the Bengals to 375 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: guarantee your self profit to make sure you don't lose 376 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 1: in cases a crazy comeback so you should be able 377 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: to do something and work off that number. If we 378 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:53,880 Speaker 1: get to the end and it's just a money line 379 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,919 Speaker 1: play on the Ravens. If there's ever an issue, the 380 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: game is tight late, if it goes to overtime, whatever 381 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: might be, you should be able to play off of it. 382 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: So much similar to yesterday, if you played that parlay, 383 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,879 Speaker 1: this is a teaser parlay. If you have a chance 384 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 1: to play off of it, pay attention and if you get 385 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 1: the first two legs, no, you've got that night game in. 386 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:12,880 Speaker 2: Order to play off of it. 387 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: So big card for us here today on a Thanksgiving 388 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: holiday recapping Lions minus two and a half full unit play, 389 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs over seventy eight and a half rushing receiving 390 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 1: yards half unit play, Cowboys plus three and a half 391 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 1: full unit play, Savior Worthy over forty five and a 392 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:35,959 Speaker 1: half rushing receiving yards half unit play, Ravens laying seven 393 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 1: full unit play, Joe Burrow under thirty seven and a 394 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 1: half passing attempts half unit play. The teaser is Packers 395 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: seven point teaser of the Packers plus ten, Cowboys plus 396 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: ten and a half and the Ravens on the money line. 397 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,680 Speaker 1: It's a plus one twenty bet. You can tease around 398 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: with that. Again, I want ten to that Packers game. 399 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 1: That's why I'm not doing a six point teaser. I'm 400 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 1: doing a ten point teaser because i want that plus ten. 401 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 1: As always, when it comes to those teasers, check your 402 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: house rules. Do not be betting out a book that 403 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 1: cause you to lose, lose a teaser if you push. Okay, 404 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: check the house rules. You do not want to lose 405 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,959 Speaker 1: that plus ten. If the lines win by ten and 406 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: that bet becomes a loser, do not bet that there. 407 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 2: Okay, just don't bet it. 408 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,359 Speaker 1: It has to be a push if it falls at ten, 409 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 1: and that would either change the bet to be a 410 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: two leg teaser or avoid. 411 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 2: The entire bet. 412 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 1: Either way, it's fine, But having to be a loser 413 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 1: at plus ten, that's the problem. That's what we don't 414 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 1: want to get into. My name is Matt Pereltz. Have 415 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: a great Thanksgiving. Thank you for watching, thank you for listening. 416 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 1: We're back tomorrow for a Black Friday, another day, another 417 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: day of big football, collegeen Pro Huge day tomorrow, Huge 418 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 1: day today. Enjoy the day with your family. We're back tomorrow. 419 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 1: But as always, even on holidays, wherever you guys get 420 00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,639 Speaker 1: your podcasts, it is the Daily Juice 421 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 2: ND Gifts, Deser