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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Big Day BAQ podcast, available every morning

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Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Monday, the

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Speaker 2: twenty fourth of March in London. I'm Caroline Hipki and.

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Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today.

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Speaker 4: Investors grow hopeful as Donald Trump said to narrow the

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Speaker 4: scope of his plan for reciprocal tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Rachel Reeves float changes to the UK's digital services tax

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Speaker 2: in a bit to dodge US levees as she prepares

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Speaker 2: for a high stakes spring statement.

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Speaker 4: Plus Turkey unrest, more market turmoil and protest expected after

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Speaker 4: police arrest Erdouan's main political rival.

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Speaker 5: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 4: US and European stock futures have risen on signs that

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump's plan for aciprocal tariffs may be more measured

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Speaker 4: than he previously suggested. Sources in the Administration of told

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg the levees will still target country that have tariffs

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Speaker 4: or barriers on US goods, but some nations and blocks

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Speaker 4: will be excluded. It's also understood the US president no

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Speaker 4: longer plans to announce separate sector specific tariffs at the

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Speaker 4: second of April, event dubbed Liberation Date by Trump, our

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Speaker 4: market's life stretch. As Mark Cranfield says, traders remain on edge.

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Speaker 6: The mood at the moment is a bit better, but

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Speaker 6: there's a very long way to go, and traders are

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Speaker 6: used to whiplash. They've seen before that just because one

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Speaker 6: thing is said, it can be reversed quite quickly, so

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Speaker 6: they'll be monitoring the headlines very much over the next

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Speaker 6: twenty four to forty eight hours. This week is pretty

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Speaker 6: light on US data, so it's really all going to

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Speaker 6: be about the headlines that come out of Washington and

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Speaker 6: how traders respond to that.

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Speaker 4: Mark Cranfield, Speaking as Australia as Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned

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Speaker 4: the US administration's policies will have a seismic impact on

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Speaker 4: the global economy. Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Leg Chang says that

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Speaker 4: Beijing is prepared for shocks that exceed expectations.

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Speaker 2: As reports suggest that the White House is opting for

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Speaker 2: targeted tariffs, the UK's Chancellor Rachel Reeves has signaled that

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Speaker 2: Britain's tax on big tech companies could be changed as

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Speaker 2: part of any potential deal with the US. Currently there

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Speaker 2: is a two percent levy on revenue from digital services

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Speaker 2: earned in Britain, paid by the likes of Amazon, Meta

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Speaker 2: and Google. But Reeves says that changes to the tax

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Speaker 2: may form part of a trade negotiation with the US.

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Speaker 7: We've got to get the balance right and those discussions

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Speaker 7: at the moment are ongoing.

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Speaker 8: We want to make progress.

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Speaker 7: We do not want to see British exporters subject to

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Speaker 7: higher tariffs and we want to see trade barriers fall

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Speaker 7: right across the world.

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Speaker 2: Rachel Reeves speaking to the BBC's Sunday with Laura Consburg

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Speaker 2: show ahead of Wednesday Springs statement. The Chancellor also said

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Speaker 2: she plans to reduce the government's operating costs by fifteen

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Speaker 2: percent over the next five years, including cutting ten thousand

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Speaker 2: civil service jobs.

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Speaker 4: Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney began his election campaign with

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Speaker 4: the warning America wants to break us. The former Bank

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Speaker 4: of England governor has called a snap vote for the

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Speaker 4: twenty eighth of April, just two weeks after he took

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Speaker 4: over from Justin Trudeau. He's been focusing his campaign on

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Speaker 4: standing up to US President Donald Trump.

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Speaker 9: President Trump claims that Canada isn't a real country. He

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Speaker 9: wants to break us, so America can own us. We

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Speaker 9: will not let that happen. We're over the shock of

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Speaker 9: the betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons.

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Speaker 3: Before he became leader.

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Speaker 4: Carney's Liberal Party were on course for a total electoral wipeout,

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Speaker 4: but his campaign has seen them gain more than twenty

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Speaker 4: percentage points in aggregated polls.

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Speaker 2: Turkey has jailed President Erduan's main political rival on corruption charges.

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Speaker 2: Ekrem Immomulu, Istanbul's mayor, was detained by police last Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: but only formally arrested on Sunday. He's the most prominent

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Speaker 2: person to be apprehended in a recent wave of detentions

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Speaker 2: and investigations against opposition figures, which have prompted mass protests

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Speaker 2: in major cities. Imamalu's detention has caused turmoil on Turkey's

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Speaker 2: financial markets, sparking sellofs in the Lira and equities. The

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Speaker 2: country's capital markets regulator has now banned short selling across

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Speaker 2: all stocks and relaxed share buyback rules to prevent further losses.

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Speaker 4: Ukrainian US officials held talks in Saudi Arabia over the weekend,

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Speaker 4: as President Trump pushes for a ceasefire.

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Speaker 3: Ukraine's defense minister.

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Speaker 4: Said the discussion was productive and focused, covering key points

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Speaker 4: including energy. Speaking to Fox News, White Has Envoy Steve

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Speaker 4: Whitcalf outlined broader US ambitions to end the conflict.

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Speaker 10: There are grievances on both sides, but our job, and

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Speaker 10: at the direct again I stretch of the president, our

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Speaker 10: job is to narrow the issues, bring the parties together,

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Speaker 10: and stop the killing. That's the game plan, and that's

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Speaker 10: what we're all there to do. And I think that

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Speaker 10: we're doing a pretty effective job of it, and I

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Speaker 10: think you'll see some a lot more progress get announced

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Speaker 10: after Monday.

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Speaker 4: Steve Whitkoff, speaking to Fox News Sunday, US and Russian

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Speaker 4: delegates are holding separate talks today so as to say

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Speaker 4: the White House is aiming for a truce agreement by

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Speaker 4: the twentieth of April. European officials are skeptical that a

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Speaker 4: deal can be reached without sacrificing Ukraine's interests.

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Speaker 2: Ant Group says that it has used Chinese made semiconductors

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Speaker 2: to develop techniques for training AI models that would cut

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Speaker 2: costs by twenty percent. The News Onto schools how companies

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Speaker 2: in the country are trying to use local alternatives to

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Speaker 2: Envidia's market leading chips, sources of told Bloomberg the jack

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Speaker 2: Ma backed firm used Chinese chips to get results similar

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Speaker 2: to those from Nvidia. Is H eight hundred processor well

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Speaker 2: not the most advanced semiconductor on the market. The H

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Speaker 2: eight hundred is still relatively powerful and barred from sale

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Speaker 2: to China.

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Speaker 4: Those are your top stories on the markets. We're looking

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Speaker 4: at European stock futures three tents higher for eurostocks fifty

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Speaker 4: on Wall Street, HAS and b E minis are up

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Speaker 4: by seven tenths. NASDAK futures are eight tenths higher, and

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Speaker 4: the ten year treasury yield is up three basis points

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Speaker 4: this morning at four point two eight percent in age

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Speaker 4: of the hangsng Tec index now down six tenths of

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Speaker 4: one percent.

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Speaker 3: The broader Han Seng is three tenths lower.

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Speaker 4: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is flat, the euros trading

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Speaker 4: at one oh eight thirty one against the dollar.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 2: In a moment, we'll bring you more on how Donald

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Speaker 2: Chrump might be scaling back his next raft of tariff announcements,

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Speaker 2: and we'll also look ahead to the big week for

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Speaker 2: the UK Chancellor Rachel reeves the spring statement, of course,

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Speaker 2: but another story called ri today on the art of

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Speaker 2: decision making or maybe is it a science. I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure a science. Churnalist hell Pearson has been writing in

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Weekend Audition about how to make better decisions in

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Speaker 2: an age of disinformation.

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Speaker 5: I always need help making better decisions.

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Speaker 4: But this is the idea that good science is constantly

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Speaker 4: reviewed and updated to think of the advice during COVID

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Speaker 4: nineteen or many in various studies, but the effect of

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Speaker 4: alcohol on your health. But the decisions require us to

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Speaker 4: act with certainty. So we have to act in the

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Speaker 4: information that's available to us now, even if things are uncertain.

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Speaker 4: But how good are we then at changing our minds

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Speaker 4: and then feed into that the disinformation that's so apparent

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Speaker 4: and so it appears prolific these days as well. So

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Speaker 4: Helen's been writing about how some of the most urgent

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Speaker 4: challenges for scientists is actually to build up evidence about

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Speaker 4: why people develop false beliefs and what works when it

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Speaker 4: comes to changing them.

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Speaker 3: So being open and honest is one approach.

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Speaker 4: Think about, for example, the messaging around vaccines very topical

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Speaker 4: in the US at the moment to say that we

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Speaker 4: don't know everything yet, this is what we know for

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Speaker 4: now is often more helpful when it comes to communicating

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Speaker 4: with the fee people than being overconfident when trying to

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Speaker 4: tackle issues like vaccine hesitancy as well. And then there's

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Speaker 4: the solutions as well, and has been looking at some

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Speaker 4: of those as well. One of the studies that's been

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Speaker 4: ongoing since twenty seventeen is showing that a short course

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Speaker 4: and critical thinking helps school children to identify dodgy health

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Speaker 4: claims as well.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I think that's an excellent thought. Debating and critical thinking,

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, always useful. But Helen's pieces is a really

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Speaker 2: good one to read.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's bringing more in our top story now. And

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump's next wave of tariff's planned for to be

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Speaker 4: announced next week look like they'll be more targeted than

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Speaker 4: he's previously indicated. That's giving market some potential relief from

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Speaker 4: fears of an all out tariff war. Harriemy and HISS

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Speaker 4: director Oslo maths and joins us now for more ros.

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Speaker 4: The promise had been reciprocal tariffs from the second of April.

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Speaker 4: What do we know about that plan now?

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Speaker 1: Well, it does look as you say, is if it

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Speaker 1: might be more targeted, so reciprocal, but semi reciprocal and

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Speaker 1: not necessarily on every country. And for now, according to reporting,

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Speaker 1: they don't plan those separate sectoral specific tarifts.

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Speaker 8: So we're talking about tariffs on.

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Speaker 1: Sectors including chips and autos, and those seem to be

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Speaker 1: on hold for now.

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Speaker 8: What we do know from our reporting is that he.

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Speaker 1: Will have these reciprocal tarists take effect immediately when they're announced,

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Speaker 1: which is expected on April two. But again, they may

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Speaker 1: not be on every country. It's unclear which ones they are,

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Speaker 1: but we do know he has signaled he has singled

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Speaker 1: out certain countries or blocks for his are of late,

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Speaker 1: and those clue include allies and adversaries alike. So he

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Speaker 1: has cited the European Union, but also South Korea, and

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Speaker 1: of course are India and Canada. And so there is

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Speaker 1: a sense that these will be on a bunch of places,

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Speaker 1: perhaps slightly narrow narrow in the scope, and certainly for

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Speaker 1: now the sectoral tariff seemed to be on pause.

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Speaker 2: Is there any sign there that the White House therefore

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Speaker 2: is paying attention to the market reaction that the tariff

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Speaker 2: announcements have had so far, Well, they would say.

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Speaker 1: Not, and they've said that repeatedly, that they're not paying

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Speaker 1: attention to the market. In fact, they seem to be

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Speaker 1: in sending a message they're quite sanguine about the markets.

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Speaker 8: I mean, even the Treasury.

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Speaker 1: Secretary of scott Best Centers said some kind of volatility

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Speaker 1: washout in markets is to be expected, which shows in

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Speaker 1: a way that they're talking about how much they're not

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Speaker 1: looking at markets.

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Speaker 8: So much, you have to think that they probably are.

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Speaker 1: And certainly it's something that Donald Trump, given his history

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Speaker 1: as a businessman, paid very close attention to and as

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Speaker 1: a barometer potentially of US sentiment amongst ordinary Americans.

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Speaker 8: That's really a key thing. Also, it's not just about

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Speaker 8: investor sentiment.

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Speaker 1: It's about gauging if ordinary Americans feel that he's doing

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Speaker 1: a good job and that he's tackling the things that

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Speaker 1: are important to them, which is economic growth and keeping

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Speaker 1: inflation in check.

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Speaker 8: And so as a barometer of that, it might be.

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Speaker 1: Something that he is indeed keeping a weather eye on,

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Speaker 1: although they are insisting that it's not driving policy ras

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Speaker 1: for the.

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Speaker 3: Rest of the world.

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Speaker 4: Can those looking on us what Donald Trump does next

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Speaker 4: be a bit relieved that perhaps things are looking less

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Speaker 4: like in all out trade war being imminent.

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Speaker 1: It well, certainly Donald Trump has shown that he can

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Speaker 1: announce something one day and change his mind the next,

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Speaker 1: and he might implement something and then walk it back,

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Speaker 1: and so there is certainly room for negotiation there, and

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Speaker 1: that's something that's got to be apparent to countries around

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Speaker 1: the world. But it's also because he might want to

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Speaker 1: hold those things in reserve. Again, he is, above all

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Speaker 1: a businessman who likes to have things in the back

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Speaker 1: pocket to negotiate. If he's holding fire on this sectoral

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Speaker 1: tariffs we're talking like again auto's, chips, lumber, pharmaceutical drugs,

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Speaker 1: and so on, he might be keeping those to see

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Speaker 1: what happens on April two, what the impact is of

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Speaker 1: those reciprocal tariffs, and whether he needs to go further

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Speaker 1: with sectoral tariffs. And certainly they are going for what

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Speaker 1: they call this dirty fifteen countries. It's fifteen percent of

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Speaker 1: the countries they say are the worst in terms of

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Speaker 1: the trading relationship with the US. And he's very much

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Speaker 1: focusing his attention again on places like the EU and Canada,

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Speaker 1: but also allies like South Korea and Asia. So there's

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Speaker 1: a lot in the back pocket there for Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of negotiating power still to come. But

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Speaker 1: it does show again that for countries around the world

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Speaker 1: there's possibly room to get in his ear and try

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Speaker 1: and get a better deal.

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Speaker 5: Wess, thank you for being with us.

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Speaker 2: That is Bloomberg's EMEA News director Roslyn Matheson.

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Speaker 4: Here in the UK, the Chancellor of settling the UK

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Speaker 4: is considering changing it's digital services tax on big tech

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Speaker 4: companies as part of efforts to avoid getting head with

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Speaker 4: tariffs from Donald Trump. This's ahead of racial reason ancing

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Speaker 4: what's expected to be billions of pounds and spending cots

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Speaker 4: of the Spring statement on Wednesday are UK politic support

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Speaker 4: of James Wilcock is with us for more James. First

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Speaker 4: of all, what do we know about the potential changes

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Speaker 4: to the digital services tax?

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Speaker 11: Well, so, Bloomberg reported on Friday the treasure is considering

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Speaker 11: several options for modifying the so called tech tax. Now

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Speaker 11: it raises eight hundred million pounds a year by taxing

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Speaker 11: two percent of the revenue of most major tech companies,

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Speaker 11: and it speaks to everything.

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Speaker 3: Roz was just telling you the UK.

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Speaker 11: Is looking at the US and going do we have

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Speaker 11: an angle here and it's probably going to be tech companies.

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Speaker 11: And so the Chance was asked about it five times

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Speaker 11: in an interview over the weekend and she said, to summarize,

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Speaker 11: we're in discussions about a range of measures. Those discussions

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Speaker 11: are ongoing. We don't want to see taris on British eck'sporters.

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Speaker 11: But crucially five times she did not rule this out.

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Speaker 11: And then she then told The Sun, the newspaper in

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Speaker 11: the UK, that the government were working to get a

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Speaker 11: deal ahead of April the second, which is that date

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Speaker 11: that recipial call Tarist's incoming. So we don't know it's

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Speaker 11: not happening, but we know that it might be on

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Speaker 11: the table. So a little bit of advice for you

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Speaker 11: and Stephen Caroline is that when civil servants and ministers

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Speaker 11: say there are no current plans to do something like this,

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Speaker 11: that's them not ruling it out. And Rachel Reeves are

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Speaker 11: pains to say there are currently no plans to chase

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Speaker 11: change the tax.

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Speaker 5: Okay.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, the Chance is also gearing up for the spring

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Speaker 2: statement on Wednesday. I mean, there are many difficulties here.

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Speaker 2: What are we expecting her to announce?

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Speaker 11: Well, look, the pitch has always been stability, and Reeves

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Speaker 11: has said multiple times more times I can count, the

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Speaker 11: tax changes aren't coming. In the statement on Wednesday. She

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Speaker 11: ruled it a guy again on Sunday. But we do know,

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Speaker 11: both from sources and from economists just doing the numbers,

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Speaker 11: that the headline growth figure for this year is going

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Speaker 11: to be cut drastically.

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Speaker 3: I mean, press.

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Speaker 11: Reports all across the pitch say it's going to be

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Speaker 11: somewhere from going from two percent currently to maybe one

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Speaker 11: percent in the obi's forecast. Now that's going to have

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Speaker 11: an impact on headroom, the amount that government has to spend.

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Speaker 11: The various economists report and the press say at the

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Speaker 11: moment Reeves has ten billion pounds, it's likely to be

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Speaker 11: cut to being four point five billion pounds short. Now

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Speaker 11: we've already heard this past week that there's going to

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Speaker 11: be six billion pounds in welfare savings.

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Speaker 3: We also expect Reeves.

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Speaker 11: To announce that there's going to be a number of

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Speaker 11: government cutbacks over the weekend. She said as much as

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Speaker 11: fifteen percent in a service admissive costs. And that's to

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Speaker 11: try and take her back to that ten billion pounds

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Speaker 11: headroom figure. She wants to try and say that she's

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Speaker 11: restoring the government finances after the high rates growth jocks

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Speaker 11: and the trade tensions from Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: How does all this go down politically though within the

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Speaker 4: Labor Party badly?

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Speaker 11: In short, I mean the welfare bill is an existential

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Speaker 11: problem for Labor MPs. Publicly they've been saying Kir Starmer

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Speaker 11: has talked about the weight of other tax falling on

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Speaker 11: the broader shoulders. They then say, is that really people

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Speaker 11: who are taking disability payments and the word austerity is

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Speaker 11: being thrown around you then look at ministers, These civil

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Speaker 11: servant cuts are going to affect all of their budgets.

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Speaker 11: What is the point of being a minister if you

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Speaker 11: have less and less resource to affect change?

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Speaker 3: And then finally look at the polls.

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Speaker 11: Labor have dropped eight points since the national election last

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Speaker 11: year and Kiir Starmer's personal approval rating has plummeted twenty

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Speaker 11: two points. Having said all that, at the moment this

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Speaker 11: is academic, Labor have a majority of one hundred and

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Speaker 11: seventy seats in Parliament.

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Speaker 3: You would ei one hundred and seventy.

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Speaker 11: People to abstain or a Labor and piece to actively

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Speaker 11: rebel the winter few payments that had all that discontent

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Speaker 11: last year only reach fifty two abstensions. So what this

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Speaker 11: Wednesday is going to be is a sign of the

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Speaker 11: watermark of discontent in Kids Darm's administration.

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Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 4: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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