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Speaker 1: welcome to Thursday edition of the Chuck Toodcast. We have

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Speaker 1: a fantastic episode for you. My big guest today is

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Speaker 1: Fiona Hill. You may remember Fiona Hill from the very

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Speaker 1: first Trump administration. She was on the National Security Staff

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Speaker 1: with the portfolio of Russia. She is not somebody you

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Speaker 1: would call trumpy. I think she was arguably brought in

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Speaker 1: by the hr Holdeman team and she was sort of

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Speaker 1: part of that part of that group of Trump staffers.

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Speaker 1: In term one that was there to restrain Trump, if

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Speaker 1: you will, I don't know if she would put it

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Speaker 1: as starkly as I put it, but whether it's hr

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Speaker 1: McMaster or you had John Kelly or even a Wright's prebus,

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Speaker 1: and you know that there was a lot, particularly in

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Speaker 1: the national security space, of making sure all the guardrails

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Speaker 1: were there, and it was about keeping him from going

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Speaker 1: too much off the reservation. Obviously, folks like Fienna Hill

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Speaker 1: were not welcome back into a second Trump term. But

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Speaker 1: Fiona Hill's expertise on Russia in particular is no less

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Speaker 1: important these days, and so we have a great conversation

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Speaker 1: about how Russia may view Iran at the moment, how

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Speaker 1: they view this war, where's this headed, but most importantly,

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Speaker 1: where are we headed post Trump? What's the world going

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Speaker 1: to look like? What is geopolitical politics going to look like.

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Speaker 1: It's a pretty healthy exchange. And if you've ever spent

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Speaker 1: time reading or hearing from Fiona Hill, I think you

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Speaker 1: will enjoy this conversation. We spend a lot of time

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Speaker 1: in the war, it so in Iran and sort of

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Speaker 1: the whether Trump fully appreciates what he has gotten himself into.

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Speaker 1: And in fact, if you just look at the headlines

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Speaker 1: in the last twenty four hours. You know, what is

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Speaker 1: happening is exactly what people like Fiona Hill and others

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Speaker 1: would have warned him about and probably did warn him

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Speaker 1: about in the first term, and did warn him when

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Speaker 1: he made the decision to go after Solomoni, and did

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Speaker 1: warn him when he made the decision to bomb Iran

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Speaker 1: the first time, of what could happen. The fact that

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Speaker 1: you may get an asymmetrical response. Well, we're in that

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Speaker 1: awkward phase of this war where militarily it's a huge success.

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Speaker 1: There's no doubt the targets that we have chosen to bomb,

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Speaker 1: we've been successful with it. So as a military operation,

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Speaker 1: everything is going fairly well. But the problem is that

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Speaker 1: the definition of victory for the Iranians now is simply surviving. Right,

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Speaker 1: just like in some ways in Fiona Hill, well she

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Speaker 1: makes this direct comparison. It's sort of similar to how

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Speaker 1: Russia viewed Ukraine. They thought it would be quick and dirty,

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Speaker 1: they thought it would be easy, and then it wasn't.

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Speaker 1: And then suddenly, even though maybe tactically Russia can make

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Speaker 1: more advances into Ukraine and they're acquiring territory here, the

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Speaker 1: fact that the Ukrainians haven't folded is in itself a

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Speaker 1: loss for the Russians. And when you make regime change

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Speaker 1: the focal point, which the President did when he first

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Speaker 1: began this effort, when he said the goal he hoped

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Speaker 1: that Iranians would stand up and take their government back,

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Speaker 1: wasn't as direct as what the Israelis want. The Israelis

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Speaker 1: have made no secret about their goals in this war,

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Speaker 1: and they actually have very clear goals in this war.

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Speaker 1: It is to eradicate the threat of this Iranian regime

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Speaker 1: that includes regime chains, and this is why they're trying

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Speaker 1: to eradicate as blood and right. So whatever, you may

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Speaker 1: disagree with some of Israel's tactics, but unlike the United States,

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Speaker 1: they have a clear mission. They have a clear set

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Speaker 1: of goals, and they're trying to execute a strategy in

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Speaker 1: order to achieve those goals. Obviously, we do not have

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Speaker 1: those same set of goals. What does that look like?

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Speaker 1: And he is he has boxed himself in because the

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Speaker 1: military success is not leading to a policy victory, right,

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Speaker 1: and suddenly just the regime surviving is in and of

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Speaker 1: itself a victory for the Iranian reas because they weren't

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Speaker 1: knocked out. They weren't taken out by the big bad

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Speaker 1: Satan of the United States. Right, So he's got an

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Speaker 1: energy crisis on his hands. And then if he wants

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Speaker 1: to leave and I spend some time with her, it's

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Speaker 1: like okay, Fiona Hill. He's going to want to get out.

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Speaker 1: He knows this thing is on. How does he do it?

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Speaker 1: And it's not clear how easily he can get out.

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Speaker 1: He can stop the bombing, he can stop participating, but

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Speaker 1: it doesn't mean the straits of horn Moves are going

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Speaker 1: to be open for business for shipping, whether that's for

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Speaker 1: oil or for goods. And they're still going to be

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Speaker 1: a tactical need by the US military to protect our

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Speaker 1: allies and to protect and to keep the waters open there.

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Speaker 1: So he is going to get dragged in. So the

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Speaker 1: question is does he get tucked into ground troops. One

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Speaker 1: would assume he wouldn't, but if he wants to achieve

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Speaker 1: the goal of regime change, he would have no other choice.

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Speaker 1: Does he just keep this up and hope that over

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Speaker 1: time they just wear them down? That awfully costly, it's

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Speaker 1: softly expensive. And then you get accidents like the US

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Speaker 1: military targeting a girls' school rather than it was it

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Speaker 1: was the wrong target. We are now admitting this. We'll

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Speaker 1: see if the President puts his own face behind this.

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Speaker 1: It's unlikely he tried to say it might have been

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Speaker 1: the Iranians that did it, using us stolen US weapons

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Speaker 1: to somehow blame America for this. It is pretty clear

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Speaker 1: that we either had old information targeting the wrong thing,

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Speaker 1: but we are accepting the blame for this. The question

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Speaker 1: is what you know, how how do we behave? How

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Speaker 1: does the president behave and actually put this information out

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Speaker 1: or is it a typical Trump and he refuses to

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Speaker 1: do it and makes egg Seth do it or makes

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Speaker 1: General Kine do it, which is also a possibility. Few

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Speaker 1: other headlines that you shouldn't miss in the war itself.

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Speaker 1: ABC News is reporting that the FBI let California sheriffs

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Speaker 1: and other law enforcement officials know of a potential threat

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Speaker 1: of Iranian drone strikes from the Pacific Ocean targeting California

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Speaker 1: towns that would be and this is the fear of

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Speaker 1: this war is that it essentially goes asymmetrical or horizontal,

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Speaker 1: where they try to make the cost of this very

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Speaker 1: expensive bombing ports, putting minds in the straight of horn moves.

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Speaker 1: There are sleepers, perhaps sleeper cells in western cities all

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Speaker 1: over the world that get targeted with Iranian supported terrorist attacks.

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Speaker 1: These are the concerns, and this is the metastasizing that's

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Speaker 1: always been something that many a policy advisor to many

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Speaker 1: a president who who is asked, Okay, what should we

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Speaker 1: do here? Should we try to take out this regime

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Speaker 1: has always been sort of pulled back by all of

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Speaker 1: the potential fallout and how complicated the fallout is. Unlike

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Speaker 1: unlike Liberation Day, he can't just turn it off. And

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Speaker 1: so it is we're we're He is in this. That's

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Speaker 1: why I called it quicksand the other day. He's in

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Speaker 1: quicksand now and it is hard to imagine how he's

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Speaker 1: fully going to extricate himself from this without still doing

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Speaker 1: a lot of damage to our alliances, leaving the Middle

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Speaker 1: East in total shambles and screwing up the economy. Other

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Speaker 1: than that, this is going really well. And again militarily

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Speaker 1: it is, and it's and you know, I think there's

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Speaker 1: a noble goal here. Getting rid of the scourge that

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Speaker 1: is this Iranian regime would be good for the region,

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Speaker 1: would be good for the Iranian people. But is this

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Speaker 1: the best way to do it? And are we blowing

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Speaker 1: our credibility to a point where this stuff's going to

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Speaker 1: get harder down the road, not easier. So, and we

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Speaker 1: also learned that the initial drone attack that killed those

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Speaker 1: first service members that died, it's a pretty vicious attack.

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Speaker 1: We've got seriously injured soldiers. This was a CBS News

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Speaker 1: report that indicated this serious, seriously injured soldiers in that

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Speaker 1: attack on an American installation in Kuwait. So the costs

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Speaker 1: of this war are escalating and the actual cost of

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Speaker 1: this war is going to be expensive, and it's going

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Speaker 1: to be an extraordinarily tough vote in Congress that I

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Speaker 1: can promise you. And Republicans already know this because they're

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Speaker 1: thinking about doing a reconciliation bill, believe it or not. Right,

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Speaker 1: they can't figure out an electioneer agenda. They can't agree

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Speaker 1: on anything. They just had their House retreat where half

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Speaker 1: the members didn't even show up. Right, this is a

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Speaker 1: House republ look and majority that kind of knows it's

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Speaker 1: over right. The rank and file look like they've already

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Speaker 1: pulled ripcord. Half of them didn't show up. Now some

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Speaker 1: of them are probably among that one hundred plus that

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Speaker 1: didn't show up. A bunch of them are retiring, and

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Speaker 1: a bunch of others are running for higher office and

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Speaker 1: don't want to be associated with the House Republican brand

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Speaker 1: at this point. But this is a demoralized majority. They

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Speaker 1: don't know what to run on, and the war in

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Speaker 1: Iran has now complicated this, and they're going to have

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Speaker 1: to figure out how to fund this war, and it's

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Speaker 1: possible the only way they could avoid a potential sixty

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Speaker 1: vote threshold to fund this war in the Senate is

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Speaker 1: to do this under the rules of reconciliation, which means

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Speaker 1: no filibustering, which means fifty votes. And the fact that

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Speaker 1: they're already talking about that as a way to fund

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Speaker 1: this war, in some ways, it's pretty self defeating. And

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Speaker 1: they realize what a political loser this is, that the

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Speaker 1: only choice they have is to make this a loyalty

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Speaker 1: test for the President and that they're going to need

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Speaker 1: him whipping the vote for this, and I think we

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Speaker 1: know where that's going to come from. The other one

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Speaker 1: other sort of extraneous war nugget that I wanted to

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Speaker 1: get to is the boy this Pete hegseth Man. He is,

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Speaker 1: he is. I'd say he's so thin skinned he has

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Speaker 1: no skin left. Apparently they have now barred press photographers

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Speaker 1: from the press briefing because they thought the photos that

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Speaker 1: were circulating in the various syndication sites where people get

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Speaker 1: photographs were unflattering to mister hag seth Man. This guy's

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Speaker 1: got a lot of issues. I don't know if they're

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Speaker 1: Freudian these issues, if there's something else, but you know,

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Speaker 1: his he definitely that guy. You could put him on

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Speaker 1: the couch and go a lot of different directions, but

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Speaker 1: he clearly that the fact that he's the guy in

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Speaker 1: charge of this war at the moment. I'm gonna be honest,

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Speaker 1: it's not very reassuring. You have somebody who's this thin skin,

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Speaker 1: somebody who can't take any negative criticism at all, is

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Speaker 1: supposed to be out there, you know, making the tough

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Speaker 1: calls that are necessary when running a war. I mean

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Speaker 1: talk about talk about not giving reassurance to the American people.

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Speaker 1: This guy cannot give any real and his his overt

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Speaker 1: his religiosity or I don't know if it's even real.

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Speaker 1: It may be, it may be real, Right, I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to question his faith, but to to insert it

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Speaker 1: into the public square. The way he's doing it is

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Speaker 1: it's not a unifying thing to do, and it certainly

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Speaker 1: makes those that serve who are who don't share his

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Speaker 1: faith and don't share his belief system really isolates them.

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Speaker 1: And uh and and I think makes it that much

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Speaker 1: harder to have a cohesive unit. So this is, you know,

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Speaker 1: with a very serious war we're engaged in, and we

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Speaker 1: have an completely unseerious and unprepared leader at the Defense Department.

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Speaker 1: You know, look, he never should have been confirmed. A

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Speaker 1: handful of Republican senators knew it, and they got They

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Speaker 1: got extorted, basically. And when I say they got extorted,

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Speaker 1: they got threatened, right, I think it's pretty clear Tilla

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Speaker 1: Scott and Jonny Ernst were both threatened to points. And

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Speaker 1: I think there's a reason neither one of them are

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Speaker 1: running for reelection. And I think it has a lot

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Speaker 1: to do with the confirmation fight over Haigsith because it

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Speaker 1: was clear he was unqualified for this job. It was

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Speaker 1: clear Jenny Earnst thought he was unqualified. It was clear

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Speaker 1: Tom Tillis thought he was unqualified. They both ended up

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Speaker 1: having to support this and they both decided not to

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Speaker 1: seek reelection. That wasn't a coincidence, but we are now

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Speaker 1: seeing why. And I'm sorry that they didn't have the

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Speaker 1: guts then to stand up to what they knew it

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Speaker 1: was wrong. They knew he was unqualified, and now we

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Speaker 1: are paying the price for what happens. We have a

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Speaker 1: very serious event here. Look, President made the decision. How

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Speaker 1: we conduct ourselves, how we unwind from this. You need

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Speaker 1: serious leadership with the Pentagon, and we do not have

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Speaker 1: it at the moment. It's very disconcerting, and I think

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Speaker 1: we this is one of those things where there's kind

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Speaker 1: of a bipartisan consensus that that knows this. Yet we

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Speaker 1: know you have to stay silent apparently if you're on

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Speaker 1: the Republican side of aisle, and that that is a

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Speaker 1: considering that life and death. These are somebody in charge

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Speaker 1: of life and death decisions at the moment. I know

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Speaker 1: if I was the parent of a servant, an active

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Speaker 1: duty service member right now, I'd be very very concerned

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Speaker 1: about who is calling the shots here. All right, I

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Speaker 1: want to move. I want to spend a little bit

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Speaker 1: of time. This is a this is a request actually

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Speaker 1: from from a few folks close to me, who I

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Speaker 1: think there hasn't been a good explanation for what's this,

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Speaker 1: This fight over the so called the Save Act, which

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Speaker 1: is the Republican version of trying to deal with election integrity,

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Speaker 1: and we had a Democratic version of this that was

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Speaker 1: known as HR one back in twenty twenty one, and

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Speaker 1: I thought it would be important to explain the actual

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Speaker 1: details and explain the philosophical debate that is actually taking

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Speaker 1: place between the two parties, and then the sort of

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Speaker 1: demagoguery aspect of this that Trump is inserted in that

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Speaker 1: is blowing this whole thing up. And of course the

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Speaker 1: irony is that the fight over this, the polarization and

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Speaker 1: the partisan weaponization of this bill, could lead Republicans in

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Speaker 1: the Senate to get rid of the filibuster. Now I'm skeptical,

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Speaker 1: but now, John Cornyn, I mean, here's a reminder. When

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Speaker 1: you're desperate to win reelection, your principles are the first

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Speaker 1: thing that go out the door. Apparently he is somebody

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Speaker 1: that has been a fierce defender of the filibuster until

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Speaker 1: it was got in the way of his need to

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Speaker 1: get Donald Trump to endorse his runoff candidacy in Texas.

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Speaker 1: And now he's flipped and he is willing to get

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Speaker 1: rid of the filibuster if it is used to pass

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Speaker 1: the so called Save Act. So maybe this is real.

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Speaker 1: Maybe this is on the table. I'm skeptical the Republicans

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Speaker 1: have the votes to kill the filibuster. I don't think

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Speaker 1: they do. I think, you know, we know the least

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Speaker 1: trumpy constituency left in the Republican Party are Senate Republicans.

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Speaker 1: You know, I don't believe Mike Grounds will do this. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I don't believe Tom Tillis is going to do this.

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Speaker 1: I don't believe Bill Cassidy is going to do this,

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Speaker 1: of course, but I would have said two days ago,

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Speaker 1: I didn't believe John Cornyn was going to do this.

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Speaker 1: But you know, everything is for sale in this version,

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Speaker 1: in Donald Trump's version of the Republican Party, including integrity

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Speaker 1: and principles. So thought I thought I would instead, let's

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Speaker 1: lay out sort of the larger debate here over elect

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Speaker 1: integrity and what are the true north stars of both parties.

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Speaker 1: So the primary goal, right, I think this is an

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Speaker 1: easy way to explain it. The primary goal of HR

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Speaker 1: one Right for the People back in twenty twenty one

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Speaker 1: was expansion and access. Essentially, they wanted to federalize standards

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Speaker 1: to make voting easier. The primary goal of the Save

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Speaker 1: America Act is security and verification. They want to federalized

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Speaker 1: standards to make voter registration stricter. The Democrats and HR

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Speaker 1: one wanted automatic voter registration right, they wanted to move

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Speaker 1: the burden to the government to register you via the DMV.

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Speaker 1: With the Republicans, they go the opposite way, and they

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Speaker 1: wanted proof of citizenship and they are moving the burden

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Speaker 1: to the voter to provide physical proof of citizenship in

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Speaker 1: order to get to vote. When it comes to the

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Speaker 1: voter rolls. HR one wanted to protect purging to prevent

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Speaker 1: voters from being removed, whilst the Save Act wants to

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Speaker 1: mandate frequent purges using DHS citizenship databases to do this. Then,

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Speaker 1: of course there's the issue of mail voting. Mandatory access required.

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Speaker 1: The HR one was going to require states to offer

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Speaker 1: that you had to offer no excuse mail in ballot options.

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Speaker 1: They didn't say how many dates or whatever it was,

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Speaker 1: but you know, whether it's a week, two weeks, etc.

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Speaker 1: What the Save Act would do in its current form,

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Speaker 1: it would seek to end universal mail in voting, and

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Speaker 1: of course Trump wants to even put more curbs on that,

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Speaker 1: which that version of it would have to pass one

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Speaker 1: more time in the House because that wasn't in this version.

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Speaker 1: So let's dig in deeper in here into the Save Act.

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Speaker 1: There's a significant gap between the bill that cleared the

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Speaker 1: House and the version that President Trump has been championing

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Speaker 1: on the bully pulpit over the last couple of days.

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Speaker 1: Here's what the actually passed the House. The core of

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Speaker 1: it is the documentary proof of citizenship. So to register

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Speaker 1: to vote in this bill that passed the House, you

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Speaker 1: need a passport, a birth certificate, or a so called

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Speaker 1: real ID that specifically denotes citizenship on the ID. And

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Speaker 1: it also requires states to submit voter rolls to the

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Speaker 1: Department of Homeland Security for quote unquote scrubbing. Now, what

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Speaker 1: Trump is advocating, he actually is up the Annie. He

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Speaker 1: said he's not going to sign any major spending bills

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Speaker 1: unless this Save Act is gold plate it. So he

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Speaker 1: wants the following additions that were not in the original

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Speaker 1: House text. He wants a total ban on mail in

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Speaker 1: ballots except for military and disability. He wants a one day,

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Speaker 1: one vote manday. He wants all voting on one day,

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Speaker 1: and then he's got some unrelated culture war writers that

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Speaker 1: he throws in their bands on transgender participation in sports.

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty five day returns quints dot com slash chuck. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about the reality of the Senate. The bill

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Speaker 1: is currently stalled in the Senate, and this is the

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Speaker 1: bill without those extra gold plated editions that Trump wants advocated.

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Speaker 1: It needs sixty votes to overcome a filibuster, and Republicans

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Speaker 1: have a narrow majority. They don't have the sixty votes,

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Speaker 1: and they're obviously this is the moment we're in. They're

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Speaker 1: having this quote debate about whether they should nuke the filibuster,

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Speaker 1: and like I said, I don't think they have the

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Speaker 1: votes to do it, and if they do, and I

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Speaker 1: specially think they don't have the votes to do it.

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Speaker 1: Now when the reality of Democrats winning control of the

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Speaker 1: Senate is not a fantasy anymore, it is a pretty

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Speaker 1: realistic outcome of the twenty twenty six elections. Is it

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Speaker 1: the most likely outcome? No, but it is not an

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Speaker 1: unlikely outcome. Right. We are sitting in the forty percent range,

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Speaker 1: forty to forty five percent range when it comes to Democrats'

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Speaker 1: chances of taking the Senate, and I promise you, if

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Speaker 1: the Republicans are the one to get rid of the Philipbuster,

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Speaker 1: Democrats aren't going to be the ones to put it back. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about the core argument and what I think

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Speaker 1: is a trap of this partisan power graph. Right. You

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Speaker 1: see the framing of this, particularly with partisan influencers and

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Speaker 1: partisan members of the press, that this is voter integrity

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Speaker 1: versus voter suppression. But what this really is is I

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Speaker 1: don't think election laws have any moral authority the public

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Speaker 1: when they are passed on a fifty one to forty

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Speaker 1: nine basis, And if you do this on a partisan basis,

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Speaker 1: you literally delegitimize the democracy. And maybe that's the feature

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Speaker 1: not the bug of what Donald Trump is up to.

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Speaker 1: But let me set that aside. Here's what's interesting is

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Speaker 1: how similar the oppositional rhetoric is to both bills. Right,

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Speaker 1: when Democrats try to pass HR one, right, the same

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Speaker 1: thing that happened here. Right, they passed it in the House.

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Speaker 1: I couldn't get it done in the Senate. When Democrats

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Speaker 1: passed HR one, Republicans called it a federal takeover and

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Speaker 1: a power graph because it was written by one party

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Speaker 1: to to benefit a their perceived base of younger urban voters. Well,

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Speaker 1: we're sort of got a mirror image in the Save Act.

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Speaker 1: The Save Act is seen by the left as a

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Speaker 1: power grab designed to disenfranchise voters who lack easy access

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Speaker 1: to birth certificates or who rely on mail in voting,

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Speaker 1: like seniors and roll of voters. Now here's the problem.

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Speaker 1: When the rules of the game change every four years

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Speaker 1: based on who holds the power, the public will lose

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Speaker 1: faith in the results of the game. Right, It's like

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Speaker 1: allowing allowing the University of Miami or Indiana University. If

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Speaker 1: the University of Miami's a home team, they get to

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Speaker 1: pick the officials, and if Indiana University's they get to

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Speaker 1: pick the officials, right, they get to hire the officials.

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Speaker 1: We wouldn't. We're already a little skeptical when in these

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Speaker 1: interconference matchups, when say it's Miami versus Florida and you

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Speaker 1: have to deal with SEC officials or ACC officials, Right,

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Speaker 1: one side doesn't trust that the other conference doesn't have

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Speaker 1: you know, you want a neutral third party conference, right.

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Speaker 1: I believe we had either big I think we had

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Speaker 1: big ten officials doing the Miami Indiana National title game.

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Speaker 1: He's not big ten officers, big twelve officials, I believe,

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Speaker 1: or yes, it was big twelve officials. Then we had

429
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 1: SEC officials I think for a game when we played

430
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: Ohio State. But the point was you had neutral arbiters

431
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:58,120
Speaker 1: because there would have been questions of legitimacy and concerns

432
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: that there wasn't going to be fairness there, particularly since

433
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: there's a financial incentive for conferences to do well in

434
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: these in these in these deals. So this is you know,

435
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: we're going to change the rules fifty one to forty nine. Right,

436
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:14,959
Speaker 1: Eventually the loser is never going to accept the outcome.

437
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 1: And so this is why the Save Act isn't just

438
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 1: about citizenship. It's a fundamental shift in the contract of

439
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 1: American voting. It moves from a system of self attestation,

440
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: meaning I sign a legal oath under penalty of perjury

441
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,120
Speaker 1: if I'm lying about my citizenship or lying that I'm

442
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 1: dual registered somewhere, to a permission based system where you

443
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 1: have to have government has to verify whether you're allowed

444
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: to vote. That's what the you know, Iranians decide who

445
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 1: gets to vote, the Iranian government does. That's not the

446
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:54,199
Speaker 1: way the United States system was meant to work, all right. Now,

447
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: let's dive into this election integrity war. It's a term,

448
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: depending on who you ask, is either a shield for

449
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: democracy or sel sledgehammer against it. So right now we

450
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: are seeing a collision of two very different, very partisan

451
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 1: visions of how you and I actually get a ballot.

452
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: On one side, you have the ghost of HR one.

453
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 1: On the other side, you of the current battle over

454
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 1: the Save America Act. Now, if you're getting your news

455
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: from social media, you probably think the Save Act is

456
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 1: just common sense or total suppression, right, depending on which

457
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: algorithm you're fed. But let's be honest, the policy reality

458
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 1: is a lot more complicated, and the political strategy is

459
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 1: even more cynical than itutlooks. So let's go back to

460
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. Democrats wanted to federalize elections by mandating

461
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 1: automatic voter registration. The idea the government should find you

462
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: if you're at the DMV, you're on the rules. Well,

463
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: fast forward to twenty twenty six. House Republicans pass the

464
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,199
Speaker 1: Save America Act, and it is the exact inverse. It

465
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: doesn't just reject automatic registration. It makes registration eight show

466
00:27:56,359 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 1: your papers event. It mandates documentary proof of citizenship. We're

467
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 1: talking birth certificates, passports, and specific real IDs that denote citizenship.

468
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 1: So this is what actually passed the House last month.

469
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 1: A requirement for documentary proof of citizenship to register. So

470
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: you'd have to go and get a birth certificate, which

471
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: could take days or weeks depending on the jurisdiction you

472
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 1: were born in. You need a mandate for states to

473
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 1: purge voter roles using DHS databases controlled by people like

474
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 1: Corey Lewandowski or once were you tell me whether you

475
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: trust that a man who's bragging by the way that

476
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 1: he thought he was bulletproof because no matter what he did,

477
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: he'd get a pardon from Trump. That should make you

478
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: feel good about DHS systems. And then there were strict

479
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: voter idea requirements for both in person and mail in voting.

480
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 1: But there's a massive gap between the bill of the

481
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 1: House actually sent to the Senate and what Donald Trump

482
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: is actually demanding. Untrue social right. The President wants even

483
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: more this bill, which means they'd have to go back

484
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: to the House and pass this again. Good luck doing that.

485
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 1: But he you know, he told Senate Republicans not signing anything,

486
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: effectively threatening a shutdown unless they add what he calls

487
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 1: his non negotiables, total ban on mail in ballots except

488
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 1: for the military. And get this, he wants to attach

489
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: writers banning transgender women from sports and ending gender affirming

490
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 1: care for minors, all in this Save Act. So he

491
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: took a focused, albeit controversial election bill and turned it

492
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: into a Christmas tree of culture war grievances. He's not

493
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: asking for just a change of the rules. He's asking

494
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: for total transformation of the American voting experience, and he's

495
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: doing it through ex executive pressure that even some of

496
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: his own party in the Senate, namely John Thune, the

497
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 1: Senate Republican leader, are looking with the hey, buddy, do

498
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: you have a plan to get to sixty votes, whether

499
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: it's HR one or the Save Act. We are stuck

500
00:29:53,080 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 1: in this cycle of partisan electioneering. And here's the Here's

501
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 1: important because we've had this game gamesmanship on elections before

502
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 1: that were used to deny black people the opportunity to

503
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 1: vote in the late nineteenth century, in most of the

504
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 1: twentieth century, and there was and we know, when one

505
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,479
Speaker 1: party changes the rules, it is not there to benefit everybody.

506
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 1: It is there benefit only that one party. And there

507
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: had been kind of an unspoken rule in the American

508
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: democracy that you didn't change the rules of the game

509
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: unless you had members of both teams agreeing to the

510
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: rules changes. Democrats didn't bother to find Republicans or find

511
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: a way to find broader appealing parts of their parts

512
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: of the bill are very popular, just like parts of

513
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: the Save bill for Republicans are very popular. But they're parts.

514
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 1: And here's the reality that the Republicans jammed this through.

515
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: It's a political nightmare for them and actually I think

516
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 1: will only serve as a get out the vote mechanism

517
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,959
Speaker 1: for the left and the less actually going to do

518
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: everything they're going to have, you know, you'll see people

519
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 1: on tic tac. I'm showing my age. You'll see people

520
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: on TikTok, you know, doing little songs and dances and

521
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: how do you find your birth certificate? How do you

522
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: request a copy of it? And this is what you do,

523
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 1: and YadA, YadA YadA. Trust me, they'll figure it out

524
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 1: pretty quickly and it will serve as an automatic motivator.

525
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 1: I mean, the likelihood that this blows up in their

526
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: face if they actually do this is just I mean,

527
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: I mean, my God, to get rid of the filibuster

528
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: to do this, and it would you know, it's like

529
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: it's like, it's like Trump and his absurd demand for

530
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: partisan redistricting. Careful what you ask for. You might get

531
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: it and it may end up blowing up in your face.

532
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 1: Take the state of Virginia they're now going to who

533
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: had them having a ten to one delegation on their

534
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 1: bingo card a year ago? The answer is no one.

535
00:31:52,480 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 1: Welcome to karma it So you know what, So now

536
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: we ought to get to the uncomfortable part. And there

537
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 1: are parts of both people's agendas that are both popular,

538
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 1: in parts that are not at all okay. There is

539
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 1: a pretty big disconnect between Washington and the rest of

540
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: the country on some of these bills. Because if you

541
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 1: listen to the debate on the House floor, you'd think

542
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: the Save America Act was the most polarizing piece of

543
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: legislation since the Affordable Care Act. But if you actually

544
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: look at the polling from this year Pew Gallop, even Maris,

545
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 1: you're going to see something different. The voter ID concept

546
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 1: is not controversial now. Most people are assuming it means

547
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 1: the same, you know, same thing you do at the airport.

548
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 1: You know, you just show your driver's license, that you

549
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 1: should show your driver's license, your government issued photo ID

550
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 1: right before you go vote. That has eighty three to

551
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: eighty four percent support. That's not a Republican number, that's

552
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: a consensus number. And there's even support for proof of

553
00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 1: citizenship for first time registrants that clocks in it over

554
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: eighty percent support. All right, eighty percent. That's a big deal.

555
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 1: Now again, first time registrants, that is not what this is.

556
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: So this is where you see a lot of partisan

557
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 1: commentators claim this is enormously popular. The Save Act is

558
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 1: enormously The Save Act is not enormously popular. One piece

559
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 1: of the Save Act is enormously popular. Right, this is

560
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 1: friction versus the function functionality. So, and this is where

561
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 1: we are having a debate over how much friction there

562
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: should there be in the issue of voting. And right now,

563
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 1: Republicans believe it should be harder to vote, and Democrats

564
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: believe it should be easier to vote. Right and the

565
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 1: Save Act moves friction to the front end, and it

566
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: says you don't get in the door to vote until

567
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: you prove who you are with a birth certificate or

568
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 1: a passport. And guess what, roughly twenty one million Americans,

569
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 1: most of them elderly, are the rural poor. Don't have

570
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: those papers in our drawer ready to go. Then the

571
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: Democrats with HR one wanted to get rid of all friction.

572
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 1: It wanted automatic voter registration, basically saying the government should

573
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 1: do the work for you. So the Democrats want to

574
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 1: make the funnel as wide as possible to ensure no

575
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 1: one is left out. The Republicans want to filter as

576
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 1: fine as possible to ensure no one is in who

577
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 1: shouldn't be. Now, both sides claiming they are protecting the

578
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 1: sanctity of the vote and the spirit of democracy, but

579
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 1: both sides are actually trying to engineer the electorate to

580
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 1: their own advantage. Right and the other parts of the

581
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: Save Act are not popular. By demanding a total ban

582
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: on mail in balance and attaching culture war writers to

583
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 1: the bill, Trump is taking a simple policy like voter

584
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 1: idea at the polls, that most Americans actually agree with,

585
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,280
Speaker 1: and wrapping in in a package that half the country

586
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 1: finds tocks. And he's doing exactly what the Democrats did

587
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 1: with HR One. They took some popular ideas like ethics

588
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: reform and ending jerrymandering, and they stuffed him in a

589
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 1: seven hundred page bill that included federal funding for campaigns.

590
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: Total non starter for the right. But this is a

591
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 1: classic Washington playbook. You take one popular idea, you poison

592
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 1: it with partisan must haves, and then you blame the

593
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: other side when it fails. It's a win win for

594
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 1: the consultant community, it's a win win for your social

595
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 1: media fundraising, but it's a lose lose for voter trust.

596
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 1: And it brings us back to the larger point. You

597
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: cannot save an election system by yourself. If the Save

598
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 1: Act passes the Senate, by nuking the filibuster and getting

599
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 1: fifty one Republican votes, half the country will view the

600
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six midterms is rigged before single ballot is cast,

601
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 1: just as Republicans viewed HR one as a democratic coup

602
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Stability in a democracy does not

603
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 1: come from a fifty one percent majority. And I know

604
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 1: right now everybody's assumption is, well, Trump is proving you

605
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: can take a forty six percent majority and jamm through

606
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 1: if you know how to use power or abuse power.

607
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: But this stuff is not going to stick. There's a

608
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 1: reason he can't couldn't get reelected once and he's yet

609
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:19,319
Speaker 1: to have a successful midterm. Okay, Stability in a democracy

610
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 1: comes from consent, And when you change the rules of

611
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 1: the game on a partisan basis, you aren't fixing the pipes.

612
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 1: You're poisoning the well. And in twenty twenty six, the

613
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 1: well is already running pretty dry. So let's get out

614
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 1: of the theoretical and into the real world. Proponents of

615
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 1: the Save Act say this is about one thing, ensuring

616
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 1: that only citizens vote, and they point to the eighty

617
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 1: percent of Americans who say, yeah, that sounds reasonable. Only

618
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 1: citizens should vote, By the way, it's already the law

619
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 1: of the lay it. But if we look at the

620
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,799
Speaker 1: states that have already tried a version of this bill,

621
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 1: we're going to see a very different picture. Let me

622
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 1: tell you the story of Arizona. For years, Arizona was

623
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:06,760
Speaker 1: the only state in the Union that required documentary proof

624
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 1: of citizenship to register for state elections. And what did

625
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 1: we find out? By the end of twenty twenty four

626
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 1: there were nearly thirty four thousand federal only voters in Arizona.

627
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: These are people who could not produce a birth certificate

628
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 1: or a passport, so they were legally barred from voting

629
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 1: for governor or state house. But thanks to the Supreme

630
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 1: Court carve out, they could still vote for president and Congress.

631
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 1: Thirty four thousand people. That's more than the average margin

632
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 1: of victory in swing state Arizona these days. Right, These

633
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 1: weren't illegals, by the way, They were citizens who just

634
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 1: didn't have their papers in a shoe box. And here's

635
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:56,360
Speaker 1: the kicker. Georgia, another swing state, conducted its own Remember

636
00:37:56,360 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: this is a Republican controlled state, Georgia that its own

637
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:04,839
Speaker 1: massive citizenship audit in twenty twenty four, cross referencing their

638
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 1: roles with every database they can find. How many non

639
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,800
Speaker 1: citizens did they find? On a voter roll of millions

640
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 1: of people in the state of Georgia, not in a

641
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 1: small state, mind you, they found twenty two zero, not

642
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 1: twenty thousand. Twenty out of those nine had actually voted

643
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 1: over the span of seven years nine So eleven of

644
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: the people they found never even voted. So the question

645
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,280
Speaker 1: for the Save Act isn't this bogus non citizen voting

646
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 1: business that Trump claims. By the way, it's already a

647
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 1: felony to vote if you're not a citizen. The question

648
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 1: is is it worth adding a paperwork wall for twenty

649
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 1: one million eligible Americans to catch nine people in the

650
00:38:56,480 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 1: state of Georgia. In the policy world, that would be

651
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 1: called a disproportionate response. In politics, we call it a

652
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 1: barrier to entry. But the Save America Act that passed

653
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: the House goes even further than what the state of

654
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 1: Arizona did. It isn't just one and done check if

655
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 1: you move or if you change your name, say because

656
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 1: you got married. The Save Act treats you like a

657
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 1: brand new applicant to vote, so you have to produce

658
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 1: a whole round of new documentation all over again, not

659
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 1: just a birth certificate but a marriage license. Think about

660
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: that there are seventy million married people in this country

661
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 1: who have a different last name than the one on

662
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 1: their birth certificate. Under the strictest reading of this House bill,

663
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 1: if you don't have a passport, you might need to

664
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 1: produce a birth certificate plus a marriage license just to

665
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 1: update your address. Now, I don't want to go and

666
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 1: do a huge amount of deep tales on my personal life,

667
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 1: but my wife went through this where her passport didn't

668
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 1: match your driver's license after we got married, and they

669
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 1: wouldn't let her on a plane. This is after nine

670
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 1: to eleven. We got married first, we got married just

671
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 1: after nine eleven, less than a year after nine eleven,

672
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 1: so there was you know, we were and they said

673
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 1: yet to produce a marriage certificate, which needed to know

674
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: the exact date. Well, the marriage certificate that Nevada gave

675
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 1: us did not have the exact date of when we

676
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 1: got married, just the month in the year. And they said, no, no, no,

677
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 1: you need a date. So we put we just wrote

678
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,399
Speaker 1: the date in. We're look, we don't know what else

679
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 1: to do. It was a complicated mess. We missed a

680
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 1: couple of flights because of it. We eventually got it

681
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 1: worked out. This is a this is this you know,

682
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 1: we've already you know, we already make it harder for

683
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 1: women in this country and a lot of things due

684
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 1: to you know, catching up on rules where we had

685
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 1: sort of gender imbalance, whether it's for finances and all

686
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 1: sorts of things. You know, wasn't that long ago then

687
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 1: a married woman couldn't get a credit card without her

688
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 1: husband's permission. So seventy million married people with a different

689
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 1: last name. So in order to vote, if you just

690
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 1: happen to move because your job transferred, you would have

691
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 1: to produce a perth certificate plus the marriage license just

692
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 1: to update your address. So we've moved from voter ID. Okay,

693
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: which is what all of these misleading right wing commentators

694
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 1: shoved down your throat and their feet. They are knowingly

695
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 1: lying to you. And there's some really people that I

696
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 1: used to respect who are just bullshitting all the way

697
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:49,240
Speaker 1: on this stuff. This is not about voter ID anymore.

698
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 1: It's a long way away from voter ID. This is

699
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 1: an entire elaborate piece of legislation just to make suthe

700
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's ego because he didn't win the popular vote

701
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, which he claimed is because undocumented immigrants

702
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 1: voted in mass numbers against him, and he claims that

703
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 1: mail in balloting is the reason why he lost in

704
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,439
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, not the fact that maybe he just wasn't

705
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 1: popular enough to win the popular vote in twenty sixteen,

706
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 1: and maybe it's because people thought he was sucked was

707
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 1: president during COVID and they wanted to change in leadership.

708
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 1: And they've just they literally are writing a bill in

709
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:25,720
Speaker 1: order to make his bullshit seem like it's a real

710
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 1: grievance that should be fixed. So we've moved from voter

711
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 1: ID which most people support, to voter paperwork, which most

712
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 1: people will find exhausting. Do we really want to have

713
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 1: the dmv afication of the most sacred right we have?

714
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:48,359
Speaker 1: I'll tell you though, Donald Trump terrible poker player, right.

715
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 1: His recent pivot here is very revealing. By adding his

716
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 1: demand for a ban on universal mail in voting and

717
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 1: cultural world writers to the bill, he signaled that he

718
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 1: actually doesn't want to see this bill pass. He simply

719
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 1: wants to fight, just like HR one was never designed

720
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: to pass. They just wanted to fight to say, Hey,

721
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:06,880
Speaker 1: those guys don't believe in democracy. They don't believe in

722
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: election integrity, and what Trump wants to be able to

723
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 1: say to his base is I tried to secure the elections,

724
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 1: but the Democrats and the Senate Rhinos blocked me. So

725
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 1: using a legitimate policy debate about citizenship verification as a

726
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 1: trojan horse for a total overhaul of the voting calendar

727
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 1: just to make his bullshit about what happened in twenty

728
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 1: sixteen and twenty twenty seem like it was legitimate. So

729
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 1: when you take a common sense idea like citizen should

730
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 1: vote and you turn it into a twenty one million

731
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: person hurdle, you're not protecting the system. You're testing the

732
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 1: breaking point. You don't want the democracy to succeed, You

733
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 1: don't want more voters to the polls. If you do

734
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 1: it without a single vote from the other side, you're

735
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 1: telling half the country the only way to win is

736
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 1: to change the rules so the other side can play.

737
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 1: And Donald Trump actually said the quiet power out loud.

738
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: He said, if we get this save bill pass the

739
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 1: way I want it, Democrats won't win an election for

740
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 1: fifty years. I don't happen to think that's true. But

741
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: the fact that he said it only poisoned the well

742
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 1: even more and made it an even to me, an

743
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 1: easier decision not to support that bill. But here are

744
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 1: some fun facts here about the access gap. This is

745
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 1: just projections. In twenty twenty six, among total registered voters,

746
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:23,439
Speaker 1: fifty two percent do not have an unexpired passport. Among

747
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: voters under the age of thirty, fifteen percent lacked easy

748
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: access to a birth certificate. Among married women, thirty five

749
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: percent have name match issues between their birth certificates and

750
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 1: their ideas. And among low income voters, a disproportionate lack

751
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 1: the one hundred dollars for a new passport and certified records.

752
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 1: But let me conclude with the most uncomfortable truth of all,

753
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 1: one that usually makes some of my poly sized students,

754
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 1: if they haven't realized this yet, it can make their

755
00:44:56,640 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 1: head spin. If you scour the US Constitution from the

756
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 1: preamble to the last Amendment, you will not find the

757
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 1: phrase that says, quote every citizen has an affirmative right

758
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,840
Speaker 1: to vote, because it's not there. What we have is

759
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 1: a list of things you cannot do to stop someone

760
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 1: from voting. You can't stop them because of their race.

761
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 1: That's the fifteenth Amendment, their sex, that's the nineteenth amendment.

762
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 1: Their failure to pay a poll tax, that's the twenty

763
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 1: fourth Amendment, or because they're over eighteen, that's the twenty

764
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 1: sixth Amendment. But as the Supreme Court famously reminded us

765
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 1: in Bush v. Gore, the individual citizen has no federal

766
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: constitutional right to vote for electors for the president of

767
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 1: the United States. Maybe that is something we ought to

768
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 1: change because the federal document, the US Constitution, is silent

769
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:49,720
Speaker 1: on this issue. There are state constitutions actually aren't. Nearly

770
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 1: every single state constitution Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona explicitly guarantees that

771
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:59,399
Speaker 1: quote election shall be free and equal, or that every

772
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 1: citizen shall be entitled to vote. And this is where

773
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 1: the Save America Act hits a massive legal wall. If

774
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:09,879
Speaker 1: it's somehow magically passed. By mandating federal show us your

775
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:14,800
Speaker 1: paper requirements, Congress is essentially trying to override state level

776
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 1: constitutional guarantees. Remember, the Constitution says it is up to

777
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 1: the states to implement voting processes. So if a state

778
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 1: constitution says a resident is entitled to vote and the

779
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:30,839
Speaker 1: federal government says not without a passport, you're not. We're

780
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:34,720
Speaker 1: looking at a pretty interesting tenth Amendment showdown that would

781
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:36,839
Speaker 1: make the nineteen sixties look like a warm up act.

782
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 1: We actually already got a preview this when Kansas tried

783
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 1: to version the Save Act. The courts eventually struck it down,

784
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 1: partly because it created a dual class system of citizens,

785
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:51,919
Speaker 1: just like we have in Arizona. Right you have state

786
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 1: voters and federal voters. You can't have federal voters and

787
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 1: state voters living in the same house but using different rules.

788
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 1: It's a recipe for administration. So here's the bottom line.

789
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 1: When Democrats try to pass HR one, they were trying

790
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:08,720
Speaker 1: to use federal power to force states to make voting easier,

791
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: and now with the Save Act, Republicans are trying to

792
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 1: use federal power to force states to make voter registration harder.

793
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: Both sides trying to build a national election system on

794
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 1: a constitutional foundation that is frankly too thinner than it

795
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 1: should be. So if you want to fundamentally change how

796
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:28,879
Speaker 1: Americans vote, you can't do it through a fifty one

797
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 1: vote yatcha bill or a last minute writer on a

798
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 1: spending package. You need a consensus that transcends the next

799
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 1: election cycle. Because right now we're not saving the vote.

800
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 1: We're just turning the rules of democracy to a partisan weapon.

801
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: And when the rules become the weapon, the only thing

802
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 1: that ends up dead is the public's trust in the outcome.

803
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 1: So look, I hope I created a little bit of

804
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 1: clarity of what this bill actually is, what the impact

805
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 1: would be. I know I've been pretty dismissive. I am

806
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 1: a hugely cynical about both of these bills because they

807
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: were not designed to pass right. This is not about

808
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 1: being a moderate a centrist. It is about me being

809
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 1: an incrementalist, which means if you were trying to change

810
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 1: the rules for three hundred and fifty million Americans, you

811
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 1: better do it with massive consensus, not partisan demagoghriy on this.

812
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 1: So with that, we'll take a break when we come back.

813
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:35,320
Speaker 1: My extraordinary conversation with feeling him having good life insurance

814
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 1: is incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I was

815
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:42,280
Speaker 1: sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have any money.

816
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 1: He didn't leave us in the best shape. My mother,

817
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 1: single mother, now widow, myself sixteen trying to figure out

818
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 1: how am I going to pay for college? And lo

819
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 1: and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy that

820
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,280
Speaker 1: we found It wasn't a lot, but it was important

821
00:48:57,280 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 1: at the time, and it's why I was able to

822
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 1: go to college. Little did he know how important that

823
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 1: would be in that moment. Well, guess what. That's why

824
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 1: I am here to tell you about Ethos Life. They

825
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:12,720
Speaker 1: can provide you with peace of mind knowing your family

826
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 1: is protected even if the worst comes to pass. Ethos

827
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 1: is an online platform that makes getting life insurance fast

828
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 1: and easy, all designed to protect your family's future in minutes,

829
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 1: not months. There's no complicated process, and it's one hundred

830
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:30,760
Speaker 1: percent online. There's no medical exam require you just answer

831
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 1: a few health questions online. You can get a quote

832
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 1: in as little as ten minutes, and you can get

833
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 1: same day coverage without ever leaving your home. You can

834
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,279
Speaker 1: get up to three million dollars in coverage, and some

835
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: policies start as low as two dollars a day that

836
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 1: would be billed monthly. As of March twenty twenty five,

837
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:50,240
Speaker 1: Business Insider named Ethos the number one no medical exam

838
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:54,879
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839
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:58,440
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840
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:03,239
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841
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Speaker 1: Application times may vary, and the rates themselves may vary

842
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 1: as well, but trust me, life insurance is something you

843
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:13,280
Speaker 1: should really think about, especially if you've got a growing family.

844
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,320
Speaker 1: Well joining me now. Is one of arguably the world's

845
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 1: most foremost experts on all things Russia, at least and

846
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 1: has played that role for currently at a senior fellow

847
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 1: at the Brookings Institute, but served on the National Security

848
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:35,879
Speaker 1: Council the specialization on Russia in the first Trump administration

849
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 1: at is Fiona Hill. And it's good to see you.

850
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 1: It's been a while, see you too. Not much is

851
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 1: going on in the world, and and and and what's happening.

852
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 1: But in all seriess, let's start with sort of Russia's

853
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 1: role with Iran. And let me start with before we

854
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 1: get into sort of the current sort of what are

855
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,880
Speaker 1: they doing and all this stuff, how would you describe

856
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 1: that alliance and make a comparison of that alliance to

857
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: an alliance that the US has with a country that

858
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 1: what's the most similar alliance that Russian and Iran have

859
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 1: that you would say the United States mirrors.

860
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 2: It's a very loose alliance. Let's put it that way. So,

861
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:21,720
Speaker 2: you know, the United States has had so many formal

862
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 2: alliances with countries, you know that it's hard to do,

863
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 2: you know, kind of a really neat comparison because it's

864
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 2: not a formal alliance between Russia and Iran, and there's

865
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:38,319
Speaker 2: all kinds of expressions of friendship and partnership, but it

866
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:41,319
Speaker 2: really doesn't kind of amount to, you know, very much

867
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:42,400
Speaker 2: beyond the declarative.

868
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 1: So are they just vendors for each other? You know,

869
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:46,439
Speaker 1: they just sell stuff to each other?

870
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's I mean, one might quip that

871
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 2: the way that you know, Trump has been treating some

872
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:56,240
Speaker 2: of the traditional US allies that might actually become more comparable,

873
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 2: you know, very critical about them, not seeing you know,

874
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 2: kind of a sense of obligaon they're expecting them, you know,

875
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 2: to do things for him, you know, VISI VI this war.

876
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:06,920
Speaker 2: In fact, I mean, the UK comes you know obviously

877
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:10,799
Speaker 2: to mind. But you know, Russia and Iran you have

878
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:15,719
Speaker 2: a very complex and deeply historical relationship, I mean going

879
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 2: back to the Persian and Russian empires, and you know

880
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:24,440
Speaker 2: they've they've clashed historically at many times. They have you know,

881
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 2: territories that they've fought over. You know, including in the

882
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 2: Caucasus regions they had, you know, their empires had you know,

883
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:34,960
Speaker 2: peoples that they've divided, you know, between them, and Russia

884
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:38,919
Speaker 2: had come to rely in Iran in the period since

885
00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:41,920
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy nine, established into the theocracy as a kind

886
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:45,360
Speaker 2: of stabilizing force, particularly in the Muslim world, because Russia

887
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 2: has had its most problems with its own sunny Muslim population.

888
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 2: It has a sheer population, it's very small and mostly

889
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 2: Azardi ethnic azardies who have caused a you know, big

890
00:52:55,760 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 2: bulk of the non Persian you know, ethnic groups inside

891
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 2: of Iran itself, and of course we have the independent

892
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 2: state of Azerbijan. But you know, there wasn't really you know,

893
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:10,480
Speaker 2: any way in which you know, Russia saw Iran as

894
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:12,840
Speaker 2: a particular threat within its territory. Now in the modern

895
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 2: times and much more is a kind of a like

896
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 2: minded an enemy of my enemy as my.

897
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:24,359
Speaker 1: Friend really more than anything, yeah, but.

898
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:25,239
Speaker 2: A bit more than that. I mean, when you look

899
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:27,840
Speaker 2: at trade, it's not surprising to find that, you know,

900
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 2: the trade is in the same kind of dimensions that

901
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:32,960
Speaker 2: you know, trade with Iran is with lots of other countries.

902
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:36,319
Speaker 2: Carpets and pistachios and you know, all kinds of you know,

903
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 2: food stuffs. Russia, you know, shares the Caspian you know

904
00:53:40,880 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 2: sea and you know that base and with Iran as well,

905
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,360
Speaker 2: but you know, obviously has its own oil and gas.

906
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 2: But it was really that kind of role that Iran

907
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:50,960
Speaker 2: plays as far as Russia was concerted a sort of

908
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:56,480
Speaker 2: predictable even even if you know, complex neighbor that could

909
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 2: help it sort of settle issues. And then more recently

910
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 2: with the war in Ukraine, that shifted quite dramatically, with

911
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 2: Russia tapping into Iran's development of the Shihi drones, which

912
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 2: of course we're now seeing you know, on full display

913
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 2: not just in Ukraine, but now being used across the Gulf,

914
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 2: and Iran provided Russia with those drones during the war

915
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:21,080
Speaker 2: Ukraine effectively became a partner with Russia in the war

916
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:24,760
Speaker 2: against Ukraine, helped them build a factory, and.

917
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:29,120
Speaker 1: You know kind of you that it'd It's been a

918
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:31,960
Speaker 1: bit of a head scratcher to me that with Trump's

919
00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 1: obsession with Iran, that he didn't view what they were

920
00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 1: doing with Russia more negatively. On Russia, Yeah, it is.

921
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:41,120
Speaker 2: A bit of head scratcher. Isn't it. But I mean

922
00:54:41,160 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 2: I think that that shows that, you know, Trump tends

923
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 2: to think of things in a you know, pretty bilateral fashion.

924
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 2: He thinks of his relationship with Russia as just that

925
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 2: that it almost exists in a vacuum when with Putin,

926
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:54,280
Speaker 2: and he thinks about it as if it doesn't interact

927
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:56,400
Speaker 2: with everything else. And I think that that's part of

928
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:59,280
Speaker 2: the problem that we're now seeing in the Middle East.

929
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 2: It hasn't been you know, full thinking about what the

930
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:06,440
Speaker 2: second and third order consequences might be and how you know,

931
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:09,799
Speaker 2: kind of basicly firing on on Iran might have all

932
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 2: of these knock on effects on all of these other relationships.

933
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 2: You can't just separate them all out. And many people

934
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 2: have been trying to make that point, myself included for

935
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:19,799
Speaker 2: years that you know, the war in Ukraine had become

936
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 2: a global conflict, I mean not just another war in Europe,

937
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:26,759
Speaker 2: you know, the third in a century, a major land war,

938
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 2: but because it brought in Iran and China and North

939
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:33,960
Speaker 2: Korea in on support of Russia, because they all saw

940
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 2: it as a proxy war with the United States and Iran,

941
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:37,800
Speaker 2: most notably.

942
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 1: If you're Iran, are you disappointed in what Russia and

943
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 1: China have done as allies or not.

944
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 2: Yes, I think you are disappointed, But at the same

945
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:49,279
Speaker 2: time it might be what you expect because you know,

946
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 2: you yourself are not exactly the best of our lives for

947
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 2: other countries either. I mean, these are all very transactional.

948
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:57,360
Speaker 2: I mean Iran has a very particular war view, so

949
00:55:57,400 --> 00:56:00,440
Speaker 2: the Russia, to China, so North Korea. A lot of

950
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:03,400
Speaker 2: their decisions are based on, you know, how things affect

951
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,879
Speaker 2: their interests. I mean they're very nakedly transactional. I mean

952
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 2: this is hardly in the sort of Chinese and you know,

953
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:14,480
Speaker 2: Iranian in a sense, their relationshiply just rush from melding

954
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:16,439
Speaker 2: of the minds. I mean, one is the theocracy wants

955
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:19,239
Speaker 2: still has a communist party. I mean, yes, these are

956
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:21,600
Speaker 2: all again ancient empires who kind of see it as

957
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:24,719
Speaker 2: their own right, you know, kind of a divine right

958
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 2: in many respects, certainly from Iran, to basically drive their

959
00:56:28,719 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 2: own civilizational perspective. I mean, around sees itself as a civilization,

960
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:34,680
Speaker 2: not just as a country, which I mean I think

961
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:37,479
Speaker 2: perhaps you know, Trump and the people around him seem

962
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 2: to have forgotten and you know, they all feel that

963
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 2: they have, you know, the right to exert themselves, the

964
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 2: right to nuclear weapons, you know, the right to have

965
00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 2: their own interests and to conduct their own foreign policy

966
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 2: without regard to the United States. And you know they

967
00:56:50,080 --> 00:56:53,839
Speaker 2: bind together or bound together and band together. I've kind

968
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 2: of used the wrong kind of term there. They're banded

969
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 2: together without being bound together as what I was trying

970
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:00,200
Speaker 2: to say. You know, when it comes to their own

971
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:03,839
Speaker 2: interests being affected in some way and there where there's

972
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 2: a sort of shared concern about interests that overlap, but

973
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 2: it's not that they're bound to each other in terms

974
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 2: of any obligations in any ways. So I don't think,

975
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:15,360
Speaker 2: you know, the Eroons were really expecting the Russians to

976
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:16,480
Speaker 2: come in on their side here.

977
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,280
Speaker 1: Well, it's just interesting that we've when you look at

978
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:26,680
Speaker 1: whether it's Syria, whether it's Venezuela, whether it's Iran, throw

979
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:31,040
Speaker 1: maybe Cuba, there's a lot of these sort of I

980
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:33,440
Speaker 1: don't know what you call them, Russian friends, you know,

981
00:57:33,600 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 1: allies might be too strong of a word, but certainly

982
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 1: places where in every one of these countries also had

983
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 1: good relationships with China. China has chosen not to really

984
00:57:46,560 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 1: help any of these folks Russia has a little bit.

985
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess if I were in their shoes,

986
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 1: I would let the US punch themselves out. I would

987
00:57:57,640 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 1: do what was an old you know, what was called

988
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 1: during the days of boxing ropadope, you know, the Muhammad Ali.

989
00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:07,120
Speaker 1: Go ahead and put yourself out, George Forman, and then

990
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:11,000
Speaker 1: you'll get tired and I will get everything I want

991
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,240
Speaker 1: at a bargain or when you're tired and easier to

992
00:58:14,600 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 1: deal with. Is that what you think China's up to

993
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:21,800
Speaker 1: in particular for them not really helping any of these

994
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:24,040
Speaker 1: countries that we've bullied around.

995
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that is the case. I mean, I've

996
00:58:27,440 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 2: got a lot of colleagues here at the Brookings Institution

997
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:32,720
Speaker 2: who you know, obviously work very closely on China. And

998
00:58:33,560 --> 00:58:37,560
Speaker 2: you know, one colleague had the opportunity the medic Security Conference,

999
00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 2: you know, to put to a pretty senior Chinese you know,

1000
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 2: representative about the case of Ukraine. And I've got other

1001
00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 2: colleagues who have done the same and saying, look, you

1002
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 2: know this obviously is detrimental to you. You had no

1003
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:54,160
Speaker 2: beef with Ukraine. You know, why is it, you know,

1004
00:58:54,640 --> 00:58:57,560
Speaker 2: of any benefit when you had your own desires to

1005
00:58:57,600 --> 00:59:00,200
Speaker 2: invest in Ukraine over the long term and agricultural and

1006
00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 2: things to see it ruined. You know, why do you

1007
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:06,120
Speaker 2: want Russia to win in Ukraine and the O Visually,

1008
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:08,320
Speaker 2: the Chinese interlocer has said, well, if we wanted them

1009
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:10,800
Speaker 2: to win, they would have won, which obviously hasn't happened.

1010
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:14,000
Speaker 1: That interesting. What does that mean?

1011
00:59:14,240 --> 00:59:16,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean what it means is, look, we're

1012
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:18,600
Speaker 2: really you know, not doing you know, kind of a

1013
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 2: great deal you know here to help them, although that's

1014
00:59:20,920 --> 00:59:23,200
Speaker 2: actually not really true because they're giving you know, a

1015
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 2: lot of support in various ways, although they're charging a

1016
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:28,840
Speaker 2: high premium, which is the kind of thing Russia does too.

1017
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 2: They don't do you any favors without a cost. You know,

1018
00:59:32,080 --> 00:59:34,880
Speaker 2: China is helping Russia to obtain all kinds of goods

1019
00:59:35,360 --> 00:59:39,400
Speaker 2: and those kinds of you know, high technology that they

1020
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:41,360
Speaker 2: actually need to keep the warrior going, but they're charging

1021
00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:43,680
Speaker 2: them a premium. They're not making it easy for them.

1022
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:45,440
Speaker 2: They're not saying how quick you know, I have these,

1023
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:49,320
Speaker 2: But you know, they're not really exerting themselves to help

1024
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:50,840
Speaker 2: them in any way. And you're just going to also

1025
00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 2: refer to that. That's really kind of what Russia is

1026
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 2: doing with Iran. They have been sending them technology and

1027
00:59:57,160 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 2: response to the fact that they got the Shahi drones

1028
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 2: and they got the kind of modular manufacturing patterns and

1029
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 2: you know, helped the Uranians help them set up a

1030
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:08,760
Speaker 2: factory to produce their own They've you know, we've had

1031
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 2: reports that they've given some kind of intelligence, although we

1032
01:00:11,680 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 2: don't know exactly you know, what that might be. And

1033
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 2: Steve Whitcoff, you know, recently some all the Russians told

1034
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:18,880
Speaker 2: us we didn't so you know, let's not go down

1035
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:19,560
Speaker 2: that Poppa.

1036
01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:23,959
Speaker 1: Shouldn't take the Iranians witcough thought the Iranians were pulling

1037
01:00:24,000 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 1: the wool over their eyes. But the Russians, he always

1038
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 1: takes them at their work.

1039
01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, you see, this is you know,

1040
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:30,400
Speaker 2: part of the issue we're dealing with. Everybody deals with

1041
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 2: everything in silos and stove pipes, and you know, from

1042
01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:34,720
Speaker 2: the point of view of you know, what they see here.

1043
01:00:34,720 --> 01:00:36,920
Speaker 2: But look, it's still fair to say, getting back to

1044
01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:39,480
Speaker 2: the point that you're making here, that both Russia and

1045
01:00:39,560 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 2: China are kind of watching to see how this all

1046
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 2: plays out, and they think that probably you know, the

1047
01:00:44,600 --> 01:00:47,840
Speaker 2: United States, will you know, do what most countries and

1048
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:49,960
Speaker 2: the United States has done before, get itself into a

1049
01:00:50,040 --> 01:00:51,960
Speaker 2: hell of a mess in the Middle East, and that

1050
01:00:52,000 --> 01:00:54,240
Speaker 2: they can just watch and you know, see what happens next.

1051
01:00:54,240 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 2: I mean, yes, you know, Russia has lost the footing

1052
01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:59,480
Speaker 2: that it had previously in Syria. This is not great,

1053
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,640
Speaker 2: you know, that kind of what's happened with Iotola Hamini

1054
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 2: because you know Putin was you know, quite close. There's

1055
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 2: one can be close to the Itolic but hey, it's

1056
01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 2: the Iola sun now, you know, and in fact, you

1057
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:13,720
Speaker 2: might have gotten even harder line, you know, kind of version,

1058
01:01:13,840 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 2: if that's even possible.

1059
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 1: Those that I would like to see a little proof

1060
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:19,760
Speaker 1: of life here and the sun we get to see

1061
01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:20,280
Speaker 1: any proof.

1062
01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:22,560
Speaker 2: Of well exactly that is that is true, but I mean,

1063
01:01:23,000 --> 01:01:25,000
Speaker 2: but the Russians are kind of expecting that it might

1064
01:01:25,080 --> 01:01:27,240
Speaker 2: go So the Russians in Chinese have been around a

1065
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:29,960
Speaker 2: long while, right, and they're kind of expecting that things

1066
01:01:30,040 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 2: kind of might play out in a way that is

1067
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:34,560
Speaker 2: detrimental to the United States. You know, they've had their

1068
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 2: own experiences, particularly the Russians in Afghanistan. You know, they

1069
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:40,640
Speaker 2: all kind of know what happens in these imperial wars,

1070
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:43,800
Speaker 2: and that's exactly what's happening to Russia and Ukraine. Special

1071
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 2: military operations turn into quagmites. That's exactly what's happened, you know,

1072
01:01:47,720 --> 01:01:51,160
Speaker 2: for Russia and you know the United States, they believe

1073
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:54,480
Speaker 2: because the politics, the domestic upheaval, all the things that

1074
01:01:54,520 --> 01:01:56,680
Speaker 2: you know they watched are going on, you know, might

1075
01:01:56,760 --> 01:01:59,960
Speaker 2: find itself in quite a predicament and then they might

1076
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:02,120
Speaker 2: be able to kind of sweep in and take advantage.

1077
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:04,440
Speaker 2: So it's just like you said, it's the ropodomee. You know,

1078
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 2: just watch them exhaust themselves. Putin doesn't box, but he

1079
01:02:07,880 --> 01:02:10,280
Speaker 2: did play judo, and you know that would be also.

1080
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 2: You work for your opponent over multiple tournaments to get

1081
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:16,640
Speaker 2: themselves into trouble, your top opponent, and then you know

1082
01:02:16,680 --> 01:02:19,040
Speaker 2: you kind of just take advantage and literally use their

1083
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:21,480
Speaker 2: strength against them, you know, to get them to the mat.

1084
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:24,400
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, for now they're thinking, okay,

1085
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 2: you know this.

1086
01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:29,160
Speaker 1: Well, I mean I'm sting. I mean that's what it looks.

1087
01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:31,960
Speaker 1: You know, if I'm the Russians, your darn right, I'm

1088
01:02:31,960 --> 01:02:34,560
Speaker 1: going to help the Iranians. Because anything that bogs down

1089
01:02:34,600 --> 01:02:38,800
Speaker 1: the US makes Ukraine's life harder.

1090
01:02:39,720 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 2: Yea absolutely right spot on. You know, So when the

1091
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:45,760
Speaker 2: United States was thinking about what was happening or what

1092
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:48,120
Speaker 2: they wanted to do in Iran, were they also think

1093
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:50,760
Speaker 2: about how this was all interconnected. You know, we've had

1094
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:53,160
Speaker 2: a debate about whether Trump had the right to you know,

1095
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:55,520
Speaker 2: it hasn't redeclared. What has he I mean to kind

1096
01:02:55,560 --> 01:02:59,040
Speaker 2: of launch this assault on Iran, you know, without all

1097
01:02:59,080 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 2: of the you know, other constitutional requirements that everybody's thinking about.

1098
01:03:03,560 --> 01:03:06,000
Speaker 2: But we haven't been asking what did they do in

1099
01:03:06,080 --> 01:03:08,600
Speaker 2: terms of deliberating or the first, second, third, and fourth

1100
01:03:08,720 --> 01:03:12,200
Speaker 2: order consequences and how everything was intertwined because so many

1101
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:15,320
Speaker 2: times people from the administration have said that they prefer

1102
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:19,720
Speaker 2: to disentangle these you know, thorny knots of problems and

1103
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:21,880
Speaker 2: deal with one issue at a time. But unfortunately all

1104
01:03:21,920 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 2: of these things are all ruveled together in Ukraine.

1105
01:03:26,280 --> 01:03:28,480
Speaker 1: I know, and he you know, this comes back to

1106
01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 1: the principle he hates multilateralism, right. I don't know if

1107
01:03:32,760 --> 01:03:35,520
Speaker 1: he hates it because he can't understand it, or he

1108
01:03:35,640 --> 01:03:38,920
Speaker 1: just life is simpler for him if every relationship is binary,

1109
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:42,840
Speaker 1: everything is transactional, whether it's in the personal or in

1110
01:03:42,840 --> 01:03:46,280
Speaker 1: the professional or whatever it is. But he does. He

1111
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:50,360
Speaker 1: he almost hates to think about the interconnectivity of things.

1112
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:53,120
Speaker 1: You've spent some time with him, I mean, is that

1113
01:03:53,640 --> 01:03:55,400
Speaker 1: the impression you got of him in the first term.

1114
01:03:55,760 --> 01:03:58,560
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And look in the second term. You know many

1115
01:03:58,560 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 2: of the people around him have made that very explicit

1116
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:04,440
Speaker 2: playing it out, just as you said that it's almost

1117
01:04:04,440 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 2: as if we all these issues exist in the vacuum.

1118
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 2: Well they don't. And you know when you think about

1119
01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:14,120
Speaker 2: Iran and kind of intelligence that the United States would have,

1120
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:16,320
Speaker 2: you know, collected in the past and Iran and we

1121
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:20,400
Speaker 2: still have some you know, great.

1122
01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:21,520
Speaker 1: Do you think it's all derivative of Israel's intel?

1123
01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 2: Well, I think some of it would have come from

1124
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:25,680
Speaker 2: our own, But all of that is also derivative, right,

1125
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:28,440
Speaker 2: It's not just you know, from one thread. I mean,

1126
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 2: the United States is part of what was the Five

1127
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:33,360
Speaker 2: Eyes if that still exists in terms of you know,

1128
01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:38,800
Speaker 2: realistic grouping. Yeah, well, I mean the question is, you know,

1129
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:42,360
Speaker 2: as Canada was Canada consultant was the UK, you know, Australia,

1130
01:04:42,760 --> 01:04:44,520
Speaker 2: you know New Zealand. I mean they might have had,

1131
01:04:44,520 --> 01:04:46,520
Speaker 2: you know, a lot of information. Certainly the Golf States

1132
01:04:46,560 --> 01:04:49,240
Speaker 2: would have done. But if you're only maybe asking the Saudis,

1133
01:04:49,440 --> 01:04:54,080
Speaker 2: I mean, this is obviously of existential import for the

1134
01:04:54,120 --> 01:04:57,040
Speaker 2: Golf States, given you know their proximity and you know

1135
01:04:57,080 --> 01:04:59,000
Speaker 2: all the interactions we see it now, I mean, all

1136
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:01,520
Speaker 2: the damage that's been done of them, just like Ukraine

1137
01:05:02,240 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 2: was of existential input for Europeans, and Trump was pretty

1138
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:09,240
Speaker 2: lax at basically consulting, you know, with them as well.

1139
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:12,200
Speaker 2: So this is just part of, you know, a pattern

1140
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:15,800
Speaker 2: where there's this sort of feeling by Trump and the

1141
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:18,240
Speaker 2: people around him that you know, we have all the power,

1142
01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:20,560
Speaker 2: we have all the intellectual capacity that we need, we

1143
01:05:20,600 --> 01:05:23,360
Speaker 2: have all the information that we need. We don't have

1144
01:05:23,400 --> 01:05:25,240
Speaker 2: to consult with anyone else, and we don't have to,

1145
01:05:25,560 --> 01:05:29,120
Speaker 2: you know, basically take a full spectrum, comprehensive view of

1146
01:05:29,160 --> 01:05:30,960
Speaker 2: something before we act. We can just figure it out

1147
01:05:30,960 --> 01:05:31,720
Speaker 2: as we go along.

1148
01:05:32,120 --> 01:05:33,880
Speaker 1: Were you still in the administration when he made the

1149
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:35,640
Speaker 1: decision to get solemnoney.

1150
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:39,080
Speaker 2: No, I was not. No, I'd left, okay, And I

1151
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:42,160
Speaker 2: think you know that would probably have emboldened him though along.

1152
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 1: That That's what I'm wondering, right along with.

1153
01:05:43,960 --> 01:05:47,160
Speaker 2: What happened with my Duro, because the blowback that people

1154
01:05:47,280 --> 01:05:48,840
Speaker 2: predicting never came right from.

1155
01:05:48,680 --> 01:05:51,680
Speaker 1: Hiss a lot of people. Maybe maybe this time it

1156
01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:54,040
Speaker 1: wasn't you telling him. It might have been another expert

1157
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:56,400
Speaker 1: letting him know, Okay, if you do this, here are

1158
01:05:56,400 --> 01:06:00,600
Speaker 1: the potential fallouts, you know, and then none of it happens. Right.

1159
01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:03,000
Speaker 1: He touches the hot stove and he doesn't burn his hand.

1160
01:06:03,160 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, Solomony. And he touches it again with Maduro,

1161
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:08,600
Speaker 1: And frankly, he did it again in July. Last July

1162
01:06:09,280 --> 01:06:12,120
Speaker 1: with the bunker buster bombs. Oh well that didn't set

1163
01:06:12,160 --> 01:06:14,720
Speaker 1: off a wide ranging yeah, and.

1164
01:06:14,760 --> 01:06:17,520
Speaker 2: The recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

1165
01:06:17,680 --> 01:06:19,400
Speaker 1: That didn't say they're not Yeah.

1166
01:06:19,400 --> 01:06:21,240
Speaker 2: All of these because I remember all of this, people

1167
01:06:21,240 --> 01:06:23,440
Speaker 2: would say, well, there'll be problems, and you know, that's

1168
01:06:23,480 --> 01:06:25,520
Speaker 2: our job. We're always supposed to be prepared to be

1169
01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:27,440
Speaker 2: the world's worst pessimists.

1170
01:06:27,000 --> 01:06:30,720
Speaker 1: Right right, But that's your job in the National Security Council.

1171
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:31,240
Speaker 1: You know.

1172
01:06:31,880 --> 01:06:33,720
Speaker 2: I'm a nice mam at home. You know, Hey, look

1173
01:06:33,720 --> 01:06:35,480
Speaker 2: at that. You know this could be all in my office,

1174
01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:37,400
Speaker 2: you know, or something like this. I'm always thinking about

1175
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:39,160
Speaker 2: the worst that you know, the ceiling could fall, you know,

1176
01:06:39,200 --> 01:06:41,520
Speaker 2: and then the consequence this will be the last you know.

1177
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 2: And so for someone like Trump is like, okay, all

1178
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:46,640
Speaker 2: of these people, in these so called smart people, these

1179
01:06:46,680 --> 01:06:48,960
Speaker 2: experts who say they're experts, told me this would happen,

1180
01:06:49,200 --> 01:06:51,560
Speaker 2: and it didn't. Well, the fact is that, you know,

1181
01:06:51,800 --> 01:06:54,160
Speaker 2: those are some of the contingencies you've got to bear

1182
01:06:54,200 --> 01:06:56,280
Speaker 2: in mind, because you know, one could say from the

1183
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:59,240
Speaker 2: Abrahama courts right that you know, there wasn't the reaction

1184
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:01,600
Speaker 2: from the policyeions that they thought they would be right

1185
01:07:01,640 --> 01:07:04,680
Speaker 2: away to all of the kind of decisions about Jerusalem,

1186
01:07:04,880 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 2: or you know, the cords between Israel and you know

1187
01:07:09,480 --> 01:07:12,680
Speaker 2: other Gold States, and then there was Octaber seventh. You know,

1188
01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:15,440
Speaker 2: so one might be able to posit that that was

1189
01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:19,640
Speaker 2: you know, one of those consequences, but you know, the

1190
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:22,880
Speaker 2: direct line of causality wasn't as clear. And so I

1191
01:07:22,880 --> 01:07:24,440
Speaker 2: mean that's the kind of same thing that we know

1192
01:07:24,480 --> 01:07:27,320
Speaker 2: we're dealing with here. You know that if the immediate

1193
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:31,120
Speaker 2: impact isn't felt, you know, in some cases there's an

1194
01:07:31,120 --> 01:07:34,080
Speaker 2: immediate cause and effect, I knows, it might take some

1195
01:07:34,200 --> 01:07:36,400
Speaker 2: time to play out. I mean, look, I think in

1196
01:07:36,400 --> 01:07:38,840
Speaker 2: many respects we're all dealing with a post nine to

1197
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 2: eleven Osma bin Laden, you know, attack world because it's

1198
01:07:42,200 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 2: all those kind of kno going to affect some decisions

1199
01:07:44,240 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 2: that were made in that context to go into Afghanistan

1200
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:49,720
Speaker 2: then to go into a rack against the back of that,

1201
01:07:49,800 --> 01:07:52,960
Speaker 2: even though you know there wasn't any direct linkage, but

1202
01:07:53,000 --> 01:07:57,240
Speaker 2: it's just it's shaped a whole frame for the way

1203
01:07:57,240 --> 01:07:59,439
Speaker 2: that we thought about things, and you know that's what's

1204
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:00,479
Speaker 2: happening here as well.

1205
01:08:11,040 --> 01:08:16,679
Speaker 1: Do you buy that NBS was one of the folks

1206
01:08:16,760 --> 01:08:19,960
Speaker 1: advocating for these for this joint strike with the Israelis

1207
01:08:19,960 --> 01:08:21,880
Speaker 1: that you know, there's that big Washingt Post story that

1208
01:08:21,880 --> 01:08:24,439
Speaker 1: it wasn't just Israel that was talking Trump into this,

1209
01:08:24,640 --> 01:08:27,040
Speaker 1: that it was Saudi Arabia. And I say that because

1210
01:08:27,040 --> 01:08:30,320
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia has also been the least helpful in the

1211
01:08:30,320 --> 01:08:34,200
Speaker 1: current situation too. Right, they're in this weird spot, it

1212
01:08:34,360 --> 01:08:38,240
Speaker 1: seems like, and in the same spot they've always tried

1213
01:08:38,280 --> 01:08:41,920
Speaker 1: to fashion. Right, they're the protector of these important monuments

1214
01:08:41,920 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 1: and these important touchdowes of the of the of the

1215
01:08:45,280 --> 01:08:49,880
Speaker 1: Muslim religion, and so they they haven't they haven't fought

1216
01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:53,160
Speaker 1: back per se. But do you buy that did he

1217
01:08:53,240 --> 01:08:54,960
Speaker 1: push that he helped convince Trump.

1218
01:08:55,760 --> 01:08:57,120
Speaker 2: I don't know what to think. I mean, maybe he

1219
01:08:57,160 --> 01:09:00,240
Speaker 2: didn't dissuade him. Maybe that could be the point. So,

1220
01:09:00,280 --> 01:09:02,960
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know enough about the saucing for

1221
01:09:03,000 --> 01:09:07,000
Speaker 2: that story. It wasn't massively picked up in other public cations.

1222
01:09:07,000 --> 01:09:10,720
Speaker 1: It wasn't and there wasn't any match. And now you

1223
01:09:10,760 --> 01:09:13,000
Speaker 1: get the sense that the Saudi's are given off a Hey,

1224
01:09:13,000 --> 01:09:15,439
Speaker 1: this is not what we had in mind. Yeah, I mean,

1225
01:09:15,600 --> 01:09:17,400
Speaker 1: they're not happy now for sure.

1226
01:09:17,479 --> 01:09:19,760
Speaker 2: So think about this in another context, you know, which

1227
01:09:19,760 --> 01:09:23,839
Speaker 2: I know more about, which is the meeting between Putin

1228
01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:27,839
Speaker 2: and She and Beijing literally on the eve of Putin's decision,

1229
01:09:28,280 --> 01:09:32,280
Speaker 2: you know, to go in full on invasion into Ukraine.

1230
01:09:32,680 --> 01:09:37,920
Speaker 2: You know, Putin and She basically declare this limitless partnership,

1231
01:09:38,439 --> 01:09:41,360
Speaker 2: and you know, they have all these wonderful press conference meetings.

1232
01:09:41,400 --> 01:09:44,040
Speaker 2: The next thing, it looks like she has then given

1233
01:09:44,080 --> 01:09:47,160
Speaker 2: the green light or even encouragement to put them to

1234
01:09:47,200 --> 01:09:49,439
Speaker 2: go into a special Molta operation. The Chinese have been

1235
01:09:49,479 --> 01:09:53,240
Speaker 2: constantly ever since going No. Actually, you know, we kind

1236
01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:55,120
Speaker 2: of thought something different was happening. You know, we didn't

1237
01:09:55,160 --> 01:09:56,880
Speaker 2: really do that, which I think you know.

1238
01:09:57,320 --> 01:09:59,640
Speaker 1: About the Chinese that they didn't see that. How did

1239
01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:01,760
Speaker 1: they not see that coming? It seemed like we saw

1240
01:10:01,760 --> 01:10:02,200
Speaker 1: it coming.

1241
01:10:02,720 --> 01:10:04,680
Speaker 2: Well. I think that they well exactly, which is one

1242
01:10:04,680 --> 01:10:06,639
Speaker 2: of the reasons. I mean, so many people didn't expect

1243
01:10:06,680 --> 01:10:08,519
Speaker 2: that Putin would do it because they could see disaster

1244
01:10:08,600 --> 01:10:11,320
Speaker 2: brewing as a result. But the Chinese might have been

1245
01:10:11,360 --> 01:10:13,920
Speaker 2: more persuaded, or she might have been more persuaded that

1246
01:10:13,960 --> 01:10:16,760
Speaker 2: special military operation would be just that the kind of

1247
01:10:16,760 --> 01:10:21,240
Speaker 2: thing that they might launch in for example, or you know,

1248
01:10:21,520 --> 01:10:24,120
Speaker 2: or they've seen the Soviet Union, do you know in

1249
01:10:24,160 --> 01:10:27,880
Speaker 2: the past in Hungary or what was then Czechoslovakia. I mean,

1250
01:10:27,920 --> 01:10:31,400
Speaker 2: those were short, sharp, bloody yes interventions, you know, to

1251
01:10:31,520 --> 01:10:35,120
Speaker 2: whip the Hungarians and the Czechoslovaks in fifty six and

1252
01:10:35,160 --> 01:10:36,840
Speaker 2: sixty eight into shape. And I'm sure that that's what

1253
01:10:36,880 --> 01:10:40,200
Speaker 2: Putin thought he was doing, But instead he unleashed what

1254
01:10:40,360 --> 01:10:42,599
Speaker 2: has become, you know, the largest land war in Europe

1255
01:10:42,600 --> 01:10:45,960
Speaker 2: since World War Two, with more casualties to Russia than

1256
01:10:46,320 --> 01:10:49,200
Speaker 2: the Soviet Union had in the Afghanistan was twenty times

1257
01:10:49,200 --> 01:10:52,000
Speaker 2: the casualtybrate And this is Russia, which is a portion

1258
01:10:52,240 --> 01:10:54,600
Speaker 2: a smaller portion of what the Soviet Union was is

1259
01:10:54,640 --> 01:10:58,080
Speaker 2: catastrophic in so many respects. But they didn't anticipate that,

1260
01:10:58,720 --> 01:11:00,360
Speaker 2: you know, and I see and I think of that

1261
01:11:00,439 --> 01:11:04,040
Speaker 2: gets into you know, did the Saudis think? And again

1262
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:08,080
Speaker 2: I can't speak to it because you know, this was

1263
01:11:08,120 --> 01:11:11,120
Speaker 2: literally just you know, another of these you know, quick blows,

1264
01:11:11,680 --> 01:11:14,200
Speaker 2: you know, and they wouldn't be pummeling, you know, Tehran,

1265
01:11:14,960 --> 01:11:16,439
Speaker 2: you know, in the same way that you know we've

1266
01:11:16,439 --> 01:11:18,840
Speaker 2: seen happening elsewhere in the Middle East. I mean, this

1267
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:22,840
Speaker 2: is you know, pretty astounding. Well it look, I mean

1268
01:11:22,880 --> 01:11:24,800
Speaker 2: from that perspective as well as you said, you know,

1269
01:11:24,800 --> 01:11:28,360
Speaker 2: because I mean there are the religious sites so important

1270
01:11:28,400 --> 01:11:32,360
Speaker 2: to his Lam, but the iol homony Homony was hormony

1271
01:11:32,400 --> 01:11:35,280
Speaker 2: before him, a major religious leader of another sect of

1272
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:38,400
Speaker 2: his Lam. So you know, this is also pretty serious

1273
01:11:38,400 --> 01:11:39,360
Speaker 2: from their perspective.

1274
01:11:42,560 --> 01:11:45,439
Speaker 1: You know. Look, you as well as anybody can know

1275
01:11:45,640 --> 01:11:47,479
Speaker 1: working for Donald Trump. So I'm not going to sit

1276
01:11:47,520 --> 01:11:50,320
Speaker 1: here and sell sell it anymore. I think he's a

1277
01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:54,240
Speaker 1: very hard you know, I vacillate. I think he's actually

1278
01:11:54,280 --> 01:11:56,320
Speaker 1: very easy to read. I always joke I'd love to

1279
01:11:56,320 --> 01:11:59,000
Speaker 1: play poker with him, because he doesn't really he sort

1280
01:11:59,000 --> 01:12:01,240
Speaker 1: of he wears everything on his sleeve. He tells you

1281
01:12:01,280 --> 01:12:02,680
Speaker 1: everything he's thinking, the.

1282
01:12:03,120 --> 01:12:05,000
Speaker 2: Saying, look at this like, I'll grab my cars.

1283
01:12:04,760 --> 01:12:06,160
Speaker 1: A I know, I know you might as well just

1284
01:12:06,240 --> 01:12:09,599
Speaker 1: hold his cards the other way. I think I wonder

1285
01:12:09,640 --> 01:12:11,720
Speaker 1: if you concur with this. I know he's going to

1286
01:12:11,760 --> 01:12:14,479
Speaker 1: want to get out of this. I just you know,

1287
01:12:14,560 --> 01:12:17,360
Speaker 1: he knows it. It's like, however it's gone. It's not

1288
01:12:17,400 --> 01:12:21,840
Speaker 1: the way he knows. It's bad politics. You just you

1289
01:12:21,880 --> 01:12:29,080
Speaker 1: can reverse course on tariffs, you can't unbomb Tehran. And so,

1290
01:12:29,320 --> 01:12:32,120
Speaker 1: knowing he wants to get out, how would you help

1291
01:12:32,200 --> 01:12:35,080
Speaker 1: him get out of this jam he's in. What would

1292
01:12:35,080 --> 01:12:37,280
Speaker 1: that look like? Given what he's in the middle of

1293
01:12:37,360 --> 01:12:38,799
Speaker 1: right now, it'd.

1294
01:12:38,600 --> 01:12:40,599
Speaker 2: Be very hard to help him, because you know he's

1295
01:12:40,640 --> 01:12:44,160
Speaker 2: thrown in his lot. Also with Israel in this regard,

1296
01:12:44,280 --> 01:12:47,320
Speaker 2: the obviously has she has got some pretty clear objectives.

1297
01:12:47,920 --> 01:12:51,040
Speaker 1: They want regime change. They make it crystal clear. The

1298
01:12:51,080 --> 01:12:53,639
Speaker 1: Prime Minister's X feed is all about this.

1299
01:12:53,760 --> 01:12:55,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that makes not making it very clear that

1300
01:12:55,680 --> 01:12:57,479
Speaker 2: they want to make sure that Iran is not a

1301
01:12:57,520 --> 01:12:59,439
Speaker 2: threat right which.

1302
01:12:59,360 --> 01:13:01,720
Speaker 1: And under after October seventh, sort of like us after

1303
01:13:01,800 --> 01:13:03,479
Speaker 1: nine to eleven, We're not going to let this al

1304
01:13:03,520 --> 01:13:06,559
Speaker 1: Qaeda wherever they go we're chasing them down. You know,

1305
01:13:06,640 --> 01:13:09,639
Speaker 1: we I can't sit here and say we wouldn't behave

1306
01:13:09,680 --> 01:13:12,040
Speaker 1: the exact same way because oh, by the way, we did.

1307
01:13:13,439 --> 01:13:16,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, we've seen what happened in Gaza. I

1308
01:13:16,320 --> 01:13:18,439
Speaker 2: mean they reduced the players to rubble to make sure

1309
01:13:18,439 --> 01:13:21,560
Speaker 2: that they've you know, eliminated the threat. And you know

1310
01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:25,479
Speaker 2: we're trending, you know, in a direction, in a run

1311
01:13:25,560 --> 01:13:28,679
Speaker 2: where we're going to have a Jesus yeah, I mean exactly.

1312
01:13:28,720 --> 01:13:32,320
Speaker 2: So we're seeing here very clear what ams by Israel

1313
01:13:32,720 --> 01:13:34,400
Speaker 2: that they're not going to be deterred. And I mean

1314
01:13:34,560 --> 01:13:38,800
Speaker 2: because it's existential to their security and you know Iran, Yes,

1315
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:40,640
Speaker 2: I mean, Trump can make a case, and we can

1316
01:13:40,680 --> 01:13:43,240
Speaker 2: all make the case, and he keeps making it all

1317
01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:46,360
Speaker 2: the time, lots and lots of different russales. Why you know,

1318
01:13:46,600 --> 01:13:49,440
Speaker 2: going after I run, at least, going after the itoler

1319
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:51,960
Speaker 2: and after the leadership, you know, made sense. You know,

1320
01:13:52,000 --> 01:13:53,760
Speaker 2: we can, we can take it at first value and

1321
01:13:54,000 --> 01:13:58,800
Speaker 2: forty seven years of a probably festering situation. But you know,

1322
01:13:58,920 --> 01:14:06,200
Speaker 2: beyond getting rid of the regime, neutralizing completely the nuclear

1323
01:14:06,680 --> 01:14:11,400
Speaker 2: UH program, what is the rest of our reign? I mean,

1324
01:14:11,439 --> 01:14:14,559
Speaker 2: because again Trump has already said, and this this was

1325
01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:15,960
Speaker 2: his whey to try to get out of it. He

1326
01:14:16,000 --> 01:14:18,280
Speaker 2: wanted to do what you did in Venezuela. Well, well

1327
01:14:18,280 --> 01:14:21,840
Speaker 2: that's ridiculous. You know one thing again, Venezuela is not

1328
01:14:22,280 --> 01:14:24,920
Speaker 2: a millennium multi millennia or civilization.

1329
01:14:25,560 --> 01:14:29,280
Speaker 1: Not ready to call Venezuela a success. We grew up

1330
01:14:29,320 --> 01:14:33,000
Speaker 1: in Miami. I know that community. Well, and if that,

1331
01:14:33,240 --> 01:14:35,720
Speaker 1: if Venezuela is not a democracy, sometimes soon they're all

1332
01:14:35,760 --> 01:14:36,880
Speaker 1: going to turn on him on this.

1333
01:14:37,520 --> 01:14:39,439
Speaker 2: And that's the problem in Iran. I mean, you know,

1334
01:14:39,520 --> 01:14:41,840
Speaker 2: we've basically being He said at the very beginning that

1335
01:14:41,880 --> 01:14:45,400
Speaker 2: one of the multiple reasons for intervention was to actually

1336
01:14:45,439 --> 01:14:48,840
Speaker 2: go to the Iranian people, you know, across the board,

1337
01:14:48,920 --> 01:14:51,519
Speaker 2: the opportunity to choose their own leadership and not you know,

1338
01:14:51,640 --> 01:14:55,479
Speaker 2: basically be you know, killed en mass By, you know,

1339
01:14:55,640 --> 01:14:58,960
Speaker 2: a regime that has become perceived widely as a legitimate.

1340
01:14:59,400 --> 01:15:01,479
Speaker 2: But I do there's not a pathway to that. So,

1341
01:15:01,800 --> 01:15:03,680
Speaker 2: I mean one of the words that you'll probably get

1342
01:15:03,680 --> 01:15:06,120
Speaker 2: out of is just declared. He's done in terms.

1343
01:15:05,800 --> 01:15:08,400
Speaker 1: Of well declare we know, well, no matter what he

1344
01:15:08,400 --> 01:15:11,960
Speaker 1: declares victory right like, oh, this was a massive success.

1345
01:15:12,960 --> 01:15:13,880
Speaker 1: You're like, but I.

1346
01:15:14,560 --> 01:15:16,880
Speaker 2: Well, what he has to do, if you're going to

1347
01:15:16,880 --> 01:15:22,280
Speaker 2: find a pathway is basically to be consulting with all

1348
01:15:22,439 --> 01:15:25,560
Speaker 2: of the countries around that have a vested interest in

1349
01:15:25,840 --> 01:15:28,759
Speaker 2: the immediate vicinity. You know, that includes you know, countries

1350
01:15:28,800 --> 01:15:33,479
Speaker 2: like Pakistan and India. It's Turkey, you know, which has

1351
01:15:33,479 --> 01:15:35,880
Speaker 2: a direct bond is actually a NATO member. You know,

1352
01:15:35,920 --> 01:15:40,320
Speaker 2: there should be a consultation with NATO countries because you've

1353
01:15:40,360 --> 01:15:44,160
Speaker 2: got Iranian populations in large numbers, and places like Germany,

1354
01:15:44,439 --> 01:15:46,680
Speaker 2: also in the United Kingdom. I mean, this is going

1355
01:15:46,720 --> 01:15:48,439
Speaker 2: to have knock on effects. It's not just you know

1356
01:15:48,439 --> 01:15:53,240
Speaker 2: what's happening in Oman or in Saudi Arabia or Ue,

1357
01:15:53,400 --> 01:15:55,599
Speaker 2: you know, et cetera. I mean we've also got Yemen.

1358
01:15:55,960 --> 01:15:57,360
Speaker 2: You know, this is these are kind of a prophecy.

1359
01:15:57,400 --> 01:15:59,000
Speaker 2: Is he's going to have to have a regional approach

1360
01:15:59,040 --> 01:16:01,960
Speaker 2: to this and exit some leadership. But I don't think

1361
01:16:01,960 --> 01:16:04,320
Speaker 2: that that's what's going to happen. I mean, he's got

1362
01:16:04,400 --> 01:16:07,920
Speaker 2: himself into a real jam here. I mean of the

1363
01:16:08,040 --> 01:16:11,280
Speaker 2: kind of you know level that the United States got

1364
01:16:11,320 --> 01:16:15,240
Speaker 2: itself to in both Afghanistan and Iraq with a lot

1365
01:16:15,280 --> 01:16:17,160
Speaker 2: more consultation. I mean In fact, in the case of

1366
01:16:17,200 --> 01:16:19,400
Speaker 2: Iraq in two thousand and three, the UK did a

1367
01:16:19,479 --> 01:16:22,040
Speaker 2: much better job of making the case, you know, with

1368
01:16:22,280 --> 01:16:26,519
Speaker 2: Dodger DOSSI well and the intervention, and there was there

1369
01:16:26,560 --> 01:16:31,640
Speaker 2: was a NATO you know, backed coalition in both you know,

1370
01:16:31,720 --> 01:16:34,640
Speaker 2: Iraq and in Afghanistan, and at least it's sort of

1371
01:16:34,680 --> 01:16:36,000
Speaker 2: a plan. I mean, look, we know we're no good

1372
01:16:36,040 --> 01:16:38,639
Speaker 2: at nation building, that's for obvious, but there's not an

1373
01:16:38,680 --> 01:16:41,920
Speaker 2: exit plan here. And because what happened in Afghanistan when

1374
01:16:42,080 --> 01:16:45,120
Speaker 2: was a negotiating exit plan was pretty disastrous.

1375
01:16:46,200 --> 01:16:49,600
Speaker 1: Do you and do you think the gutting of the

1376
01:16:49,680 --> 01:16:54,679
Speaker 1: National Security Council has any impact on this bad decision

1377
01:16:54,760 --> 01:16:57,559
Speaker 1: making He's done or is this It wouldn't have mattered

1378
01:16:57,600 --> 01:17:02,040
Speaker 1: whether there was a fully staffed NSCA He's still probably you.

1379
01:17:02,000 --> 01:17:05,280
Speaker 2: Know, yeah, I mean in that regard, that regard, I

1380
01:17:05,320 --> 01:17:06,880
Speaker 2: don't think it would really have mattered. I mean, there

1381
01:17:06,920 --> 01:17:09,000
Speaker 2: was a fully stuffed and see what could argue there's

1382
01:17:09,000 --> 01:17:10,439
Speaker 2: still a fully stuffed and a see if you look

1383
01:17:10,439 --> 01:17:12,000
Speaker 2: at the history of the NSC, which is.

1384
01:17:12,120 --> 01:17:14,200
Speaker 1: You know, super large.

1385
01:17:14,280 --> 01:17:18,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, depending on you know, kind of what what different

1386
01:17:18,439 --> 01:17:23,439
Speaker 2: presidents wanted. It's just it's his it's his antagonism towards

1387
01:17:23,479 --> 01:17:26,479
Speaker 2: any kind of consultation. I'm apart from with who he

1388
01:17:26,520 --> 01:17:28,840
Speaker 2: sees his peers. Look, this is an overall problem of

1389
01:17:28,880 --> 01:17:30,559
Speaker 2: where we are as the United States right now in

1390
01:17:30,600 --> 01:17:34,200
Speaker 2: many other countries as well, because we've created in many

1391
01:17:34,240 --> 01:17:36,519
Speaker 2: spects of vertical you know, of power, just like the

1392
01:17:36,600 --> 01:17:39,240
Speaker 2: Russians harves Putin and then you know that's kind of

1393
01:17:39,640 --> 01:17:43,360
Speaker 2: not many but not but everybody else in the consultative paramid. Here.

1394
01:17:43,600 --> 01:17:46,280
Speaker 2: You know, we've got an apex predator, an apex president,

1395
01:17:46,320 --> 01:17:48,600
Speaker 2: and that's what we've done in the United States. And

1396
01:17:48,640 --> 01:17:50,880
Speaker 2: that is completely antithetical. So what the United States was

1397
01:17:50,880 --> 01:17:52,360
Speaker 2: supposed to be about for the last two hundred and

1398
01:17:52,400 --> 01:17:54,280
Speaker 2: fifty years. So the problem is on us. I mean,

1399
01:17:54,360 --> 01:17:57,360
Speaker 2: actually we all have responsibility for this because you know,

1400
01:17:57,479 --> 01:18:00,439
Speaker 2: somehow or other we've lost grip, you know, of of

1401
01:18:00,439 --> 01:18:00,840
Speaker 2: our lives.

1402
01:18:00,960 --> 01:18:03,519
Speaker 1: I mean, it's look at Congress.

1403
01:18:04,479 --> 01:18:07,680
Speaker 2: Why but yeah, but Congress, you know, is is a

1404
01:18:07,720 --> 01:18:10,720
Speaker 2: major problem. And you know, Congress has to remember that

1405
01:18:10,720 --> 01:18:12,760
Speaker 2: they are actually supposed to be the representative body of

1406
01:18:12,760 --> 01:18:15,280
Speaker 2: the United States. They are supposed to be their main

1407
01:18:15,960 --> 01:18:19,439
Speaker 2: locus of decision making and power in the constitution. You know,

1408
01:18:19,520 --> 01:18:21,599
Speaker 2: she has related to this, and they've just completely reneged

1409
01:18:21,760 --> 01:18:25,040
Speaker 2: on our responsibility and so they've allowed you know, so

1410
01:18:25,080 --> 01:18:27,000
Speaker 2: it's all of the checks and balances in the system

1411
01:18:27,000 --> 01:18:29,720
Speaker 2: have been eroded. So of course, you know, I mean, look,

1412
01:18:29,760 --> 01:18:32,400
Speaker 2: if Trump was a different person, he might made a

1413
01:18:32,439 --> 01:18:35,320
Speaker 2: whole different set of decisions. But you know, but but

1414
01:18:35,600 --> 01:18:37,920
Speaker 2: he isn't, right, So it was so obvious that this is,

1415
01:18:38,000 --> 01:18:39,840
Speaker 2: you know, what is going to happen irrespectively, whether they

1416
01:18:40,000 --> 01:18:42,519
Speaker 2: had an NSC or you know, a kind of different

1417
01:18:42,560 --> 01:18:46,240
Speaker 2: set of cos he's concerned everyone's stuff and nobody knows anything.

1418
01:18:47,920 --> 01:18:55,439
Speaker 1: So if if this is in theory, then look, it's

1419
01:18:55,439 --> 01:18:58,519
Speaker 1: going to bog us down. There's no quick exit, right.

1420
01:18:58,600 --> 01:19:02,160
Speaker 1: I think I've equated it to quicksand right, there's just

1421
01:19:02,439 --> 01:19:04,760
Speaker 1: the more he fights it, the more he may end

1422
01:19:04,840 --> 01:19:07,720
Speaker 1: up getting sucked in because of all the all the

1423
01:19:07,760 --> 01:19:12,679
Speaker 1: regional effects, all the economic impacts, et cetera. Is this

1424
01:19:14,000 --> 01:19:16,599
Speaker 1: a huge break for Russia in the war with Ukraine?

1425
01:19:16,920 --> 01:19:18,880
Speaker 1: Is this saying, Jake, Could the timing of this been

1426
01:19:18,920 --> 01:19:19,720
Speaker 1: any better for them?

1427
01:19:20,680 --> 01:19:24,760
Speaker 2: Maybe it already depends on, you know, kind of how

1428
01:19:24,840 --> 01:19:28,719
Speaker 2: they handle it as well. I mean, the obvious issue

1429
01:19:28,760 --> 01:19:30,120
Speaker 2: is about oil prices.

1430
01:19:30,640 --> 01:19:32,880
Speaker 1: But right now that's good for the right, right high.

1431
01:19:33,680 --> 01:19:35,640
Speaker 2: But the rest is, you know where Russia is going

1432
01:19:35,680 --> 01:19:37,559
Speaker 2: to get all of it, soilight from? I mean it

1433
01:19:37,760 --> 01:19:38,960
Speaker 2: you know, is it where is it going to be

1434
01:19:39,000 --> 01:19:40,599
Speaker 2: shipping the oil because it coind has to come out

1435
01:19:40,600 --> 01:19:42,680
Speaker 2: of the Baltic you know, and you know the other

1436
01:19:42,800 --> 01:19:45,240
Speaker 2: Europeans going to want to buy Russian oil in the

1437
01:19:45,240 --> 01:19:47,400
Speaker 2: middle you know, of all of this, it's a kind

1438
01:19:47,400 --> 01:19:50,439
Speaker 2: of a long way to China, you know from for

1439
01:19:50,439 --> 01:19:52,800
Speaker 2: the Russian oil. I mean, they could ship it up

1440
01:19:52,840 --> 01:19:56,760
Speaker 2: to the Arctic Ocean in theory, or they could rail

1441
01:19:56,800 --> 01:19:59,200
Speaker 2: it out because you know they've got I mean, it's

1442
01:19:59,240 --> 01:20:01,960
Speaker 2: it's gonna it's not that easy to be honest, because

1443
01:20:02,000 --> 01:20:04,719
Speaker 2: you know, they've got the shipping problems that everybody else has.

1444
01:20:04,920 --> 01:20:07,559
Speaker 2: You know, if they can't go through the Eastern Mead

1445
01:20:07,640 --> 01:20:10,320
Speaker 2: and the Sewer's Canal or you know, kind of off

1446
01:20:10,400 --> 01:20:12,479
Speaker 2: all the kind of the shipping routes. Because i mean

1447
01:20:12,479 --> 01:20:15,200
Speaker 2: we're talking a lot about you know, Russian you know,

1448
01:20:15,360 --> 01:20:17,800
Speaker 2: rogue shipping, the shadow fleet and all the rest of it.

1449
01:20:18,120 --> 01:20:20,439
Speaker 2: They've got to be able to get that oil out.

1450
01:20:20,680 --> 01:20:23,080
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously the all that they're already producing goes

1451
01:20:23,160 --> 01:20:25,280
Speaker 2: up in value, and the Russians love that, of course,

1452
01:20:25,479 --> 01:20:27,599
Speaker 2: because you know, the peak of Putin's power has always

1453
01:20:27,640 --> 01:20:30,160
Speaker 2: been when all prices have got towards this one hundred

1454
01:20:30,200 --> 01:20:32,519
Speaker 2: and fifty dollars a barrel. And yes, that was really

1455
01:20:32,520 --> 01:20:35,519
Speaker 2: affecting the revenues. The gas is more difficult for them

1456
01:20:35,560 --> 01:20:37,880
Speaker 2: to sell as well. It's pipelined, you know, and you've

1457
01:20:37,880 --> 01:20:41,559
Speaker 2: got gas coming through Ukraine and players like Hungary and

1458
01:20:41,760 --> 01:20:43,720
Speaker 2: l and g you know, they're producing some in the

1459
01:20:43,840 --> 01:20:46,599
Speaker 2: Russian Far East. You know, it's it's not as simple

1460
01:20:46,640 --> 01:20:48,360
Speaker 2: as it looks. But yes, I mean, there is the

1461
01:20:48,400 --> 01:20:51,880
Speaker 2: prospect there of a windfall, and it would all kind

1462
01:20:51,880 --> 01:20:54,280
Speaker 2: of depend on, you know, how we're looking at you know,

1463
01:20:54,400 --> 01:20:56,559
Speaker 2: oil trading, you know, and all the rest of it.

1464
01:20:56,920 --> 01:21:02,040
Speaker 2: But it does certainly deflect well and truly away from

1465
01:21:02,240 --> 01:21:04,120
Speaker 2: you know, all the kind of efforts to try to

1466
01:21:04,520 --> 01:21:06,560
Speaker 2: resolve what's happening in Ukraine, because of course where was

1467
01:21:06,640 --> 01:21:09,439
Speaker 2: most of that to promacy taking place in the Middle

1468
01:21:09,479 --> 01:21:13,600
Speaker 2: East A and you know, with NBS and nb Z

1469
01:21:13,760 --> 01:21:14,679
Speaker 2: and all kinds of others.

1470
01:21:14,840 --> 01:21:19,680
Speaker 1: So does he want to end this war or not?

1471
01:21:20,840 --> 01:21:24,559
Speaker 2: Who is that? Putin yeah, Trump, Yeah, Trump. I think

1472
01:21:24,560 --> 01:21:27,120
Speaker 2: once when you know this war, get Trump because he

1473
01:21:27,160 --> 01:21:30,160
Speaker 2: wants to and you know, let's have a normal relationship

1474
01:21:30,160 --> 01:21:31,960
Speaker 2: with the restaurant and the only one you can't have

1475
01:21:31,960 --> 01:21:35,160
Speaker 2: it until the absolutely and he's probably blown his Nobel

1476
01:21:35,200 --> 01:21:37,800
Speaker 2: Peace Prize now as well, you know, for for this

1477
01:21:37,880 --> 01:21:42,360
Speaker 2: year one but one would imagine. But the I mean

1478
01:21:43,120 --> 01:21:45,599
Speaker 2: doesn't want to end this war unless it's on his terms.

1479
01:21:46,120 --> 01:21:49,599
Speaker 2: So that would mean, you know, the capitulation of Ukraine.

1480
01:21:50,600 --> 01:21:51,759
Speaker 2: He's made it very clear.

1481
01:21:52,000 --> 01:21:53,360
Speaker 1: It's just never going to happen.

1482
01:21:53,479 --> 01:21:57,280
Speaker 2: I mean, well it makes it unlikely. Now when put thinks,

1483
01:21:57,320 --> 01:21:59,320
Speaker 2: you know, for exactly the way that we phrase this question,

1484
01:21:59,400 --> 01:22:01,759
Speaker 2: that might have a windfall, might bring in more revenue,

1485
01:22:01,800 --> 01:22:03,679
Speaker 2: I might be able to continue to keep paying contract

1486
01:22:03,680 --> 01:22:09,200
Speaker 2: because I mean essentially, yeah, this will give him. I mean,

1487
01:22:09,240 --> 01:22:12,120
Speaker 2: they'll hope some breathing, spare some time to recovery because

1488
01:22:12,200 --> 01:22:15,479
Speaker 2: the economy was under was under pressure, and now that pressure,

1489
01:22:15,800 --> 01:22:18,400
Speaker 2: you know, could be could be relieved.

1490
01:22:19,040 --> 01:22:22,320
Speaker 1: I think every time we think that Ukrainian morale is

1491
01:22:22,320 --> 01:22:26,559
Speaker 1: going to suffer, it doesn't. I mean it is. They've

1492
01:22:26,560 --> 01:22:29,840
Speaker 1: been a tougher fighting force. I mean even now, and

1493
01:22:29,880 --> 01:22:32,880
Speaker 1: it looks like you know, the the United States isn't

1494
01:22:32,920 --> 01:22:35,960
Speaker 1: really helping the way they once were, and yet they

1495
01:22:36,000 --> 01:22:37,160
Speaker 1: continue to persevere.

1496
01:22:38,120 --> 01:22:41,040
Speaker 2: Actually, you know, unlike maybe the rest of us. Here

1497
01:22:41,240 --> 01:22:43,960
Speaker 2: they realize they have agency and this is an existential fight,

1498
01:22:44,400 --> 01:22:46,560
Speaker 2: and this is a problem that we've now got and

1499
01:22:46,880 --> 01:22:48,840
Speaker 2: you know, our current age of the strong men, as

1500
01:22:48,840 --> 01:22:51,639
Speaker 2: everybody you know refers to it. We've got a bunch

1501
01:22:51,680 --> 01:22:55,080
Speaker 2: of guys who basically think that they're so powerful and

1502
01:22:55,120 --> 01:22:56,800
Speaker 2: that can be in the private sector as well that

1503
01:22:56,880 --> 01:22:58,840
Speaker 2: you know, the techno bros. You know, you're as you've

1504
01:22:58,840 --> 01:23:02,240
Speaker 2: got trillions, and you can do anything you want. They

1505
01:23:02,280 --> 01:23:04,799
Speaker 2: kind of forget there's eight billion people on this planet

1506
01:23:05,160 --> 01:23:07,920
Speaker 2: and everyone in their own way has some urgency either

1507
01:23:08,000 --> 01:23:10,720
Speaker 2: to just ignore you, move away, you know, go of

1508
01:23:10,840 --> 01:23:13,320
Speaker 2: the grid, try not to engage with you, to actually

1509
01:23:13,360 --> 01:23:15,760
Speaker 2: be fight back. And that's you know what happened in

1510
01:23:15,800 --> 01:23:18,280
Speaker 2: the case of Ukraine. Whutin just kind of assumes he

1511
01:23:18,320 --> 01:23:20,559
Speaker 2: can tell Ukraines that they have to be Russians, you know,

1512
01:23:20,800 --> 01:23:22,439
Speaker 2: kind of or you know, they don't have the right

1513
01:23:22,520 --> 01:23:25,240
Speaker 2: to their own polity, and you know, a very large

1514
01:23:25,320 --> 01:23:26,599
Speaker 2: number of them, it doesn't even have to be all

1515
01:23:26,640 --> 01:23:29,080
Speaker 2: of them says no, thank you very much, and you know,

1516
01:23:29,080 --> 01:23:32,000
Speaker 2: I'd rather die. You know, some people would actually literally

1517
01:23:32,040 --> 01:23:34,879
Speaker 2: say than you know, kind of live under under Moscow

1518
01:23:35,040 --> 01:23:37,880
Speaker 2: and look, and that's another kind of problem when you intervene.

1519
01:23:37,880 --> 01:23:40,439
Speaker 2: In the case of Iran, there are die hards for

1520
01:23:40,520 --> 01:23:44,519
Speaker 2: that regime, you know, who will be rallying around seven

1521
01:23:44,600 --> 01:23:47,559
Speaker 2: years absolutely, I mean, you know, this.

1522
01:23:47,640 --> 01:23:50,559
Speaker 1: Is a part We look at Trump's megabase and how

1523
01:23:50,560 --> 01:23:53,160
Speaker 1: devoted they are to here, that's right, and they've only

1524
01:23:53,200 --> 01:23:57,760
Speaker 1: been He's only been their leader for a decade and

1525
01:23:57,880 --> 01:24:00,479
Speaker 1: there they don't. I mean, you know it. The irony

1526
01:24:00,560 --> 01:24:03,679
Speaker 1: is all these poles, the self described MAGA is more

1527
01:24:03,720 --> 01:24:06,160
Speaker 1: pro bombing of Iran than the non MAGA wing of

1528
01:24:06,200 --> 01:24:09,960
Speaker 1: the Republican Party. That's how devoted his base is. If

1529
01:24:09,960 --> 01:24:12,400
Speaker 1: he says, this is what it should be there with them,

1530
01:24:12,760 --> 01:24:16,360
Speaker 1: And it's amusing to me that he is shocked that

1531
01:24:16,400 --> 01:24:19,080
Speaker 1: they're similar behavior and a theocracy.

1532
01:24:19,280 --> 01:24:20,920
Speaker 2: And the same in Russia because you've got so many

1533
01:24:20,920 --> 01:24:23,320
Speaker 2: people who have vested into those, you know, regimes. And

1534
01:24:23,320 --> 01:24:27,360
Speaker 2: then in Ukraine. Yes, you know, it's complex, but it's

1535
01:24:27,400 --> 01:24:30,040
Speaker 2: a war. You know, it's just like London and the Blitz,

1536
01:24:30,120 --> 01:24:31,880
Speaker 2: you know, and basically all the other classes that we

1537
01:24:31,880 --> 01:24:34,160
Speaker 2: can think about from World War Two. They're going to

1538
01:24:34,200 --> 01:24:36,360
Speaker 2: fight back and they're going to you know, keep on

1539
01:24:37,040 --> 01:24:39,559
Speaker 2: resisting this, and even if somebody else tries to impose

1540
01:24:39,600 --> 01:24:42,160
Speaker 2: a piece, who's to say that they're going to accept that.

1541
01:24:42,640 --> 01:24:44,519
Speaker 2: And certainly the Ukrainians are not going to give up

1542
01:24:44,800 --> 01:24:48,639
Speaker 2: the best defended parts of the Donbas region just because

1543
01:24:48,680 --> 01:24:50,960
Speaker 2: Putin can't win it on the battlefield. So there's just

1544
01:24:51,040 --> 01:24:52,840
Speaker 2: all this complexity, and I think, you know, we're in

1545
01:24:52,880 --> 01:24:55,120
Speaker 2: a state where most of the people who are trying

1546
01:24:55,160 --> 01:24:58,280
Speaker 2: to make decisions, forglect that there are other people, you know,

1547
01:24:58,320 --> 01:25:00,360
Speaker 2: either they've just kind of run rulers all up because

1548
01:25:00,400 --> 01:25:03,120
Speaker 2: you know, everything's you know, moving towards AI and automation

1549
01:25:03,320 --> 01:25:06,519
Speaker 2: and humans won't exist, or who cares about, you know,

1550
01:25:06,560 --> 01:25:09,679
Speaker 2: what human beings are doing. But actually we're large parts

1551
01:25:09,680 --> 01:25:13,360
Speaker 2: of the world that is essential to understand those dynamics,

1552
01:25:13,400 --> 01:25:15,160
Speaker 2: and that's you know where I really kind of think

1553
01:25:15,479 --> 01:25:19,240
Speaker 2: that this administration falls short because Trump can't think of

1554
01:25:19,280 --> 01:25:23,479
Speaker 2: anybody but himself. Sorry, but that's ultimately he himself and

1555
01:25:23,600 --> 01:25:24,559
Speaker 2: other people's shoes.

1556
01:25:24,680 --> 01:25:27,280
Speaker 1: He just can't do it, and he assumes everybody is

1557
01:25:27,280 --> 01:25:29,360
Speaker 1: as transactional as he is. I mean, I think he's

1558
01:25:29,520 --> 01:25:33,360
Speaker 1: genuinely surprised that around it and kind of deal, well.

1559
01:25:33,320 --> 01:25:36,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I mean he doesn't really believe in ideology,

1560
01:25:37,040 --> 01:25:41,519
Speaker 2: you know, the idolatry and idle lists of idea. You know,

1561
01:25:41,920 --> 01:25:44,640
Speaker 2: he is an idol, He's American idol, you know, but

1562
01:25:44,720 --> 01:25:46,640
Speaker 2: that's kind of he doesn't think of ideology in the

1563
01:25:46,680 --> 01:25:50,840
Speaker 2: same maybe people around him do. But you know religious zeal.

1564
01:25:51,080 --> 01:25:54,640
Speaker 2: I mean, look, we have a country here where evangelical

1565
01:25:54,760 --> 01:25:58,160
Speaker 2: Christians and other you know, Christian uh, you know sects

1566
01:25:58,160 --> 01:26:00,519
Speaker 2: and you know other religions you know, kind of a

1567
01:26:00,600 --> 01:26:02,320
Speaker 2: very much we're all talking about it all the time.

1568
01:26:02,320 --> 01:26:05,799
Speaker 2: But how much religion is infused in you know, daily

1569
01:26:06,000 --> 01:26:07,880
Speaker 2: daily life and should be or should not be? Well,

1570
01:26:07,880 --> 01:26:11,160
Speaker 2: in Iran it's very much fused in daily life. This

1571
01:26:11,360 --> 01:26:15,200
Speaker 2: was a theocracy, So why are we surprised that there

1572
01:26:15,320 --> 01:26:19,880
Speaker 2: is you know, a very much a fervent responsor to

1573
01:26:19,960 --> 01:26:21,960
Speaker 2: all of this. When they I tell her how many died,

1574
01:26:22,280 --> 01:26:23,760
Speaker 2: you know, for people this is the death of their

1575
01:26:23,800 --> 01:26:26,760
Speaker 2: religious leader. It would be as if you know, for them,

1576
01:26:26,920 --> 01:26:28,519
Speaker 2: and you know, people will go, oh my god, I'm

1577
01:26:28,520 --> 01:26:30,519
Speaker 2: going to make the comparison. But again, this is for them.

1578
01:26:30,560 --> 01:26:32,839
Speaker 2: This would be as if you know, Trump had just taken.

1579
01:26:32,640 --> 01:26:36,360
Speaker 1: Out the pope, right, and there would be a lot

1580
01:26:36,360 --> 01:26:37,519
Speaker 1: of Catholics.

1581
01:26:37,520 --> 01:26:41,280
Speaker 2: Just absolutely beside themselves. And you know, I mean the

1582
01:26:41,320 --> 01:26:43,599
Speaker 2: other you know complexity of all of this is that

1583
01:26:44,600 --> 01:26:50,280
Speaker 2: in Islam, the theocracy and married you know, so you've

1584
01:26:50,280 --> 01:26:54,080
Speaker 2: got this you know possibility, you know, direct assent. As

1585
01:26:54,120 --> 01:26:57,120
Speaker 2: you said, we don't know whether Hamony son you know,

1586
01:26:57,280 --> 01:27:00,360
Speaker 2: is actually all there. We kind of assume, but you know,

1587
01:27:00,400 --> 01:27:04,519
Speaker 2: from the reports his wife was killed, his mother was killed,

1588
01:27:04,560 --> 01:27:06,639
Speaker 2: one of his sons were killed. That is not exactly

1589
01:27:06,680 --> 01:27:11,879
Speaker 2: going to be you know, to kind of deal exactly.

1590
01:27:12,040 --> 01:27:14,560
Speaker 2: And so I mean this is again you know, did

1591
01:27:14,600 --> 01:27:15,679
Speaker 2: this all get thought through?

1592
01:27:16,680 --> 01:27:20,719
Speaker 1: Well, I think you know the answer to that question.

1593
01:27:20,840 --> 01:27:22,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, so kind of rhetorical point. And I mean that's

1594
01:27:23,280 --> 01:27:25,920
Speaker 2: you know, we always need to have all of these

1595
01:27:25,960 --> 01:27:29,760
Speaker 2: extra contingencies. And that's you know where a larger process

1596
01:27:30,040 --> 01:27:32,360
Speaker 2: you know, would have at least even if the decision

1597
01:27:32,800 --> 01:27:34,840
Speaker 2: ultimately came down because a lot of people say, look

1598
01:27:34,920 --> 01:27:37,599
Speaker 2: it was an operational decision, it had to be maximum secrecy,

1599
01:27:37,960 --> 01:27:39,840
Speaker 2: you know, have that opportunity to take out you know,

1600
01:27:39,880 --> 01:27:41,840
Speaker 2: how many and him is in a circle and it

1601
01:27:41,880 --> 01:27:43,960
Speaker 2: was going to window was going to close. But just

1602
01:27:44,000 --> 01:27:48,439
Speaker 2: the whole general idea of just not not just the

1603
01:27:48,479 --> 01:27:50,760
Speaker 2: merits of actually taking that particular action, but what was

1604
01:27:50,800 --> 01:27:52,720
Speaker 2: going to happen more broadly, it could have come out

1605
01:27:52,720 --> 01:27:56,200
Speaker 2: of an enc process and into governmental process, you know,

1606
01:27:56,280 --> 01:27:58,559
Speaker 2: getting in reports. I mean perhaps they did some of this,

1607
01:27:58,760 --> 01:28:01,760
Speaker 2: you know from the ICE see the intelligence community. I'm

1608
01:28:01,760 --> 01:28:04,680
Speaker 2: gonnaged to work in that people will prepare you know,

1609
01:28:04,800 --> 01:28:06,680
Speaker 2: reports and assessments. And we're getting a little bit of

1610
01:28:06,720 --> 01:28:08,600
Speaker 2: a hint of that from you know, some of the

1611
01:28:08,600 --> 01:28:11,160
Speaker 2: stuff in the press. You would come to consult allies

1612
01:28:11,200 --> 01:28:13,720
Speaker 2: that actually have not just a vested interest but a

1613
01:28:13,760 --> 01:28:16,320
Speaker 2: lot of on the ground information, and you know, and

1614
01:28:16,400 --> 01:28:18,880
Speaker 2: then again I mean back to Congress and at least

1615
01:28:18,880 --> 01:28:20,400
Speaker 2: you know, the group and people are saying, well they

1616
01:28:20,439 --> 01:28:23,719
Speaker 2: were told? Were they consulted? Being told? Is something different?

1617
01:28:25,680 --> 01:28:30,760
Speaker 1: Do you you know? I feel like the advantage of

1618
01:28:30,840 --> 01:28:33,040
Speaker 1: run right has right now is that simply the regime

1619
01:28:33,160 --> 01:28:37,400
Speaker 1: surviving is winning. Yes, And you know it's just like

1620
01:28:38,560 --> 01:28:44,439
Speaker 1: Russia and Afghanistan, US and Vietnam. Right, the asymmetrical I

1621
01:28:44,439 --> 01:28:47,800
Speaker 1: mean the fact that supposedly there were orders given out

1622
01:28:47,880 --> 01:28:50,040
Speaker 1: that just said do what you have to do. You

1623
01:28:50,080 --> 01:28:55,920
Speaker 1: don't coordinate. That's some decentralized orders given to you know,

1624
01:28:56,000 --> 01:28:58,719
Speaker 1: in the case of if the if Comania is killed,

1625
01:29:00,360 --> 01:29:03,120
Speaker 1: you do what your best you think best is to

1626
01:29:03,200 --> 01:29:06,160
Speaker 1: disrupt this or disrupt that or et cetera. That there's

1627
01:29:06,200 --> 01:29:08,559
Speaker 1: not going to be command and control the way we

1628
01:29:08,600 --> 01:29:10,599
Speaker 1: would have it, you know, coming out of the Pentagon

1629
01:29:10,680 --> 01:29:14,120
Speaker 1: or something like that. That feels like an unwinnable war.

1630
01:29:16,360 --> 01:29:18,400
Speaker 1: When you have that kind of asymmetric when you're dealing

1631
01:29:18,400 --> 01:29:23,440
Speaker 1: with where the we're simply surviving is success.

1632
01:29:24,280 --> 01:29:29,160
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I actually have to say that's.

1633
01:29:27,880 --> 01:29:29,639
Speaker 1: What it's actually what's happening in Ukraine right.

1634
01:29:29,560 --> 01:29:31,320
Speaker 2: Now, right exactly exactly, That's exactly what I was going

1635
01:29:31,400 --> 01:29:33,960
Speaker 2: to say, because I don't understand sometimes why you know,

1636
01:29:33,960 --> 01:29:36,960
Speaker 2: Trump and other people are talking to about Ukraine's being losers,

1637
01:29:36,960 --> 01:29:38,400
Speaker 2: because it's unbelievable Ukraine.

1638
01:29:38,400 --> 01:29:41,200
Speaker 1: It believable that they're unbelievable.

1639
01:29:41,040 --> 01:29:43,680
Speaker 2: Absolutely unbelievable, and you know, and then you know, and

1640
01:29:43,760 --> 01:29:47,960
Speaker 2: as you say, that's survival in the face of a

1641
01:29:48,040 --> 01:29:50,840
Speaker 2: literal onslaught is remarkable, and that's the whole you know,

1642
01:29:50,960 --> 01:29:53,640
Speaker 2: myth of world War two for and it's not just

1643
01:29:53,640 --> 01:29:57,600
Speaker 2: a myth obviously, for for Russia, the Soviet Union is

1644
01:29:57,600 --> 01:29:59,880
Speaker 2: that you know, they survived against the odds. And again

1645
01:30:00,400 --> 01:30:02,240
Speaker 2: in America, you know, we kind of built on this

1646
01:30:02,320 --> 01:30:05,479
Speaker 2: idea of being the scrappy power that survives against all

1647
01:30:05,479 --> 01:30:08,000
Speaker 2: of the odds when everyone's you know, written written us off.

1648
01:30:08,479 --> 01:30:10,680
Speaker 2: And you know, unfortunately, you know, we kind of not

1649
01:30:10,800 --> 01:30:12,920
Speaker 2: actually seeing that others because we tend to think in

1650
01:30:12,960 --> 01:30:15,360
Speaker 2: black and white, good and evil. You know, white hats,

1651
01:30:15,400 --> 01:30:18,320
Speaker 2: black hats. You know, the Iranians are the good guys

1652
01:30:18,320 --> 01:30:20,360
Speaker 2: and you know the bad guys. We're the good guys.

1653
01:30:20,479 --> 01:30:22,439
Speaker 2: You know, us, we always have to win. We can't

1654
01:30:22,439 --> 01:30:25,720
Speaker 2: actually see that that that you know that you know,

1655
01:30:25,880 --> 01:30:29,960
Speaker 2: same response can come from you know, the opposing side.

1656
01:30:30,600 --> 01:30:34,360
Speaker 2: And in Afghanistan, the Taliban, by the tenacious, they found

1657
01:30:34,360 --> 01:30:36,679
Speaker 2: a way of constantly coming back, and you know they're back.

1658
01:30:47,000 --> 01:30:55,320
Speaker 1: Let's fast forward two years, there's a new president. There's

1659
01:30:55,360 --> 01:30:59,160
Speaker 1: no restoration anymore. I think you could argue that twenty

1660
01:30:59,200 --> 01:31:02,680
Speaker 1: twenty you can a restoration argument to the world that

1661
01:31:02,720 --> 01:31:06,080
Speaker 1: we had going back to multilateralism and all of that stuff.

1662
01:31:06,400 --> 01:31:08,040
Speaker 1: And there was a little bit of that with Biden.

1663
01:31:08,800 --> 01:31:11,840
Speaker 1: It feels like the Europeans aren't going to trust us

1664
01:31:13,200 --> 01:31:17,120
Speaker 1: a second time. That that is this generational I mean

1665
01:31:17,240 --> 01:31:19,800
Speaker 1: I had somebody ask me this question and I basically said,

1666
01:31:19,800 --> 01:31:23,600
Speaker 1: it's going to take a generation for us to repair

1667
01:31:24,240 --> 01:31:27,840
Speaker 1: the broken alliances that have that have occurred over the

1668
01:31:27,880 --> 01:31:32,320
Speaker 1: last ten years because of this trust issue. When until

1669
01:31:32,360 --> 01:31:35,679
Speaker 1: they see two presidents in a row from different parties

1670
01:31:35,720 --> 01:31:37,679
Speaker 1: behave the same way, we're not going to get trusted

1671
01:31:37,720 --> 01:31:39,800
Speaker 1: again by the Europeans. Is that is that a fair

1672
01:31:39,920 --> 01:31:40,719
Speaker 1: way of Yeah.

1673
01:31:40,640 --> 01:31:43,320
Speaker 2: Maybe even longer, you know, obviously, And I think and

1674
01:31:43,640 --> 01:31:45,320
Speaker 2: then what we're going to have is a different set

1675
01:31:45,360 --> 01:31:49,439
Speaker 2: of alliances I suspect. I mean NETO won't exist in

1676
01:31:49,680 --> 01:31:51,840
Speaker 2: you know, the form that is at least.

1677
01:31:51,720 --> 01:31:53,439
Speaker 1: Start staying out. I mean, what is it? I mean,

1678
01:31:53,760 --> 01:31:56,000
Speaker 1: do you think we can You think NATO is an

1679
01:31:56,040 --> 01:31:57,559
Speaker 1: alliance and name only at this point.

1680
01:31:57,920 --> 01:31:59,840
Speaker 2: No. I actually think it's going to change. I mean,

1681
01:31:59,880 --> 01:32:02,120
Speaker 2: it might shift its name a little bit. You know,

1682
01:32:02,240 --> 01:32:04,559
Speaker 2: we used to have things like the Western European you

1683
01:32:04,600 --> 01:32:07,280
Speaker 2: know alliance, the WA and you know all kinds of

1684
01:32:07,320 --> 01:32:09,320
Speaker 2: other you know, kind of groupings at different time. And

1685
01:32:09,320 --> 01:32:11,200
Speaker 2: I think that what we're going to get is you know,

1686
01:32:11,240 --> 01:32:15,200
Speaker 2: more of a European pillar with Canada. I mean, the

1687
01:32:15,760 --> 01:32:18,599
Speaker 2: US comes continent always like writing off Canada and forget

1688
01:32:18,600 --> 01:32:22,520
Speaker 2: that Canada is actually part of the North American Treaty organization.

1689
01:32:22,960 --> 01:32:25,439
Speaker 2: And you know, for the United States to basically function

1690
01:32:25,720 --> 01:32:30,560
Speaker 2: in terms of really protecting itself from ballistic missiles, the

1691
01:32:30,600 --> 01:32:33,759
Speaker 2: whole idea of Trump's Golden Dome, you kind of eat Canada,

1692
01:32:34,240 --> 01:32:36,680
Speaker 2: and it's not just Alaska and seas.

1693
01:32:36,439 --> 01:32:39,200
Speaker 1: In Greenland doesn't work without Canada, no.

1694
01:32:39,360 --> 01:32:42,880
Speaker 2: And you also need Norway and the United Kingdom because

1695
01:32:42,880 --> 01:32:45,040
Speaker 2: some of the key radars that the Unies it would

1696
01:32:45,040 --> 01:32:47,200
Speaker 2: be blind with that happened to be located there as well,

1697
01:32:47,240 --> 01:32:49,559
Speaker 2: because it was part of that whole you know, North

1698
01:32:49,600 --> 01:32:56,160
Speaker 2: Atlantic security infrastructure that you had there as well. And

1699
01:32:56,360 --> 01:32:58,559
Speaker 2: all of those countries and in the Norwegians are beside

1700
01:32:58,600 --> 01:33:02,720
Speaker 2: themselves about the whole tax on Greenland, not because you know,

1701
01:33:02,800 --> 01:33:04,720
Speaker 2: this is you know, directly under their sovereignty now, but

1702
01:33:04,760 --> 01:33:05,880
Speaker 2: it used to be. I mean, it has been a

1703
01:33:05,880 --> 01:33:09,320
Speaker 2: part of that larger empire Norway, Denmark, you know, I

1704
01:33:09,320 --> 01:33:12,320
Speaker 2: mean the Scandinavians, you know, more generally, they see this

1705
01:33:12,320 --> 01:33:14,800
Speaker 2: as kind of assault on them as well, and you're

1706
01:33:14,800 --> 01:33:17,960
Speaker 2: seeing groupings that used to exist beforced. In the case

1707
01:33:18,080 --> 01:33:22,519
Speaker 2: of that Scandinavian landscape, we had something called the Obvious

1708
01:33:22,560 --> 01:33:24,960
Speaker 2: all have it the Joint Expeditionary Force, which was neither

1709
01:33:25,000 --> 01:33:27,360
Speaker 2: joint expedition nor a force at one point, but it

1710
01:33:27,439 --> 01:33:30,280
Speaker 2: was a grouping to bring Sweden and Finland when they

1711
01:33:30,439 --> 01:33:33,439
Speaker 2: were not part of NATO into closer coordination. It was

1712
01:33:33,479 --> 01:33:35,559
Speaker 2: gone led by the British, but it had all the

1713
01:33:35,760 --> 01:33:39,760
Speaker 2: Nordic Baltic states, and now that's expanding out. They're trying

1714
01:33:39,760 --> 01:33:41,799
Speaker 2: to bring in Canada. They've got a kind of arrangement

1715
01:33:41,840 --> 01:33:44,559
Speaker 2: with Poland, and it's all for coordination. And I think

1716
01:33:44,600 --> 01:33:46,000
Speaker 2: that's kind of what's going to happen. We're going to

1717
01:33:46,000 --> 01:33:51,439
Speaker 2: see more coordination that leads actually to real reformulation of

1718
01:33:51,520 --> 01:33:55,519
Speaker 2: alliances on a regional basis or subregional that then starts

1719
01:33:55,520 --> 01:33:57,559
Speaker 2: to shape the whole way that we are going to

1720
01:33:57,600 --> 01:34:00,000
Speaker 2: have to then re engage because it won't be a

1721
01:34:00,080 --> 01:34:01,880
Speaker 2: to because come back and you know a couple of

1722
01:34:01,880 --> 01:34:04,800
Speaker 2: presidents he said, oh NATO, Yeah, where is that?

1723
01:34:04,880 --> 01:34:05,840
Speaker 1: It actually got the key?

1724
01:34:06,240 --> 01:34:08,200
Speaker 2: You know, it's like it's parks in the garage. You know,

1725
01:34:08,280 --> 01:34:10,120
Speaker 2: can I go in there and you know, take it

1726
01:34:10,160 --> 01:34:12,040
Speaker 2: for a spin and be like no, sorry, you know,

1727
01:34:12,080 --> 01:34:15,000
Speaker 2: we've already started to move on and to do other

1728
01:34:15,040 --> 01:34:18,360
Speaker 2: things now. The nuclear umbrella, you know, obviously for the

1729
01:34:18,439 --> 01:34:21,800
Speaker 2: United States, was critical to natal and remains critical. We're

1730
01:34:21,800 --> 01:34:24,640
Speaker 2: already having all kinds of descissions going on about you

1731
01:34:24,680 --> 01:34:30,120
Speaker 2: know what happens with fanci's independent nuclear by not just program,

1732
01:34:30,200 --> 01:34:33,040
Speaker 2: but it's nuclear arsenal. The UK having all kinds of

1733
01:34:33,080 --> 01:34:39,599
Speaker 2: anxiety about how closely to entwined its submarine nuclear forces

1734
01:34:39,600 --> 01:34:42,080
Speaker 2: with the United States, and wondering, you know, everybody's wondering

1735
01:34:42,160 --> 01:34:45,160
Speaker 2: now about how can we relieve ourselves and what now

1736
01:34:45,240 --> 01:34:49,200
Speaker 2: seems to be a potentially ruinous dependent on the United States,

1737
01:34:49,200 --> 01:34:52,160
Speaker 2: Our allies, our erstwhile our so talking about us where

1738
01:34:52,160 --> 01:34:55,680
Speaker 2: they never have before as a liability, no longer as

1739
01:34:55,720 --> 01:34:56,160
Speaker 2: an asset.

1740
01:34:57,520 --> 01:34:59,680
Speaker 1: So what would you do if you were in the

1741
01:34:59,680 --> 01:35:02,360
Speaker 1: next president as you try to rebuild these alliances? How

1742
01:35:02,360 --> 01:35:06,280
Speaker 1: would you advise the next president to you know that

1743
01:35:06,439 --> 01:35:09,439
Speaker 1: everybody's going to treat you with trepidation. Is it just

1744
01:35:11,360 --> 01:35:13,360
Speaker 1: lots of money? I mean, what what do you do

1745
01:35:13,520 --> 01:35:14,360
Speaker 1: to start to fix it?

1746
01:35:14,400 --> 01:35:16,160
Speaker 2: I don't We'll have that amount of money to throw

1747
01:35:16,200 --> 01:35:18,800
Speaker 2: around anymore, you know. For one thing. Look, I think

1748
01:35:18,800 --> 01:35:21,960
Speaker 2: there's also something us that's interesting that's happening because of

1749
01:35:22,040 --> 01:35:26,280
Speaker 2: this over emphasis on the president, on the person of

1750
01:35:26,320 --> 01:35:29,439
Speaker 2: the executive, this hyper personalization of the presidency. It's so

1751
01:35:29,520 --> 01:35:31,559
Speaker 2: longer what Dick Cheney and you know people had in

1752
01:35:31,640 --> 01:35:35,160
Speaker 2: mind of a unified executive. It's just one guy, you know,

1753
01:35:35,680 --> 01:35:36,519
Speaker 2: going to lord it over.

1754
01:35:36,720 --> 01:35:40,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I call it movie mob boss like, you know,

1755
01:35:40,200 --> 01:35:42,160
Speaker 1: it's not what a real mob boss does, but it's

1756
01:35:42,200 --> 01:35:44,040
Speaker 1: what he thinks the movie mob bosses do.

1757
01:35:44,479 --> 01:35:47,000
Speaker 2: And if we think back going to the Knickson era

1758
01:35:47,360 --> 01:35:49,720
Speaker 2: and Watergate and all the aftermath of that, that was

1759
01:35:49,760 --> 01:35:54,680
Speaker 2: trying to kind of get rid of that corrosive potential

1760
01:35:54,840 --> 01:35:58,880
Speaker 2: of too much concentration of power the president. And you know,

1761
01:35:59,000 --> 01:36:00,680
Speaker 2: I think we're going to have to have in the

1762
01:36:00,760 --> 01:36:04,360
Speaker 2: United States a major domestic discussion about this. And I

1763
01:36:04,360 --> 01:36:06,360
Speaker 2: think that renew it might have to come from the

1764
01:36:06,400 --> 01:36:08,479
Speaker 2: States because one thing that's also ready starting to happen

1765
01:36:08,840 --> 01:36:10,400
Speaker 2: when I was in Europe just the last couple of

1766
01:36:10,439 --> 01:36:14,320
Speaker 2: weeks finding out the individual American states are setting up

1767
01:36:14,320 --> 01:36:17,920
Speaker 2: their own representation. Texas and obvious one California has been

1768
01:36:17,920 --> 01:36:20,479
Speaker 2: out and about, but other states as well, you know,

1769
01:36:20,479 --> 01:36:23,160
Speaker 2: because they no longer feel that their interests are being represented.

1770
01:36:23,200 --> 01:36:25,360
Speaker 2: I mean, if you're a blue state, you know Trump

1771
01:36:25,439 --> 01:36:27,840
Speaker 2: is you know, you're no longer part of the United States,

1772
01:36:27,880 --> 01:36:29,720
Speaker 2: as Trump is saying, and he's not going to do

1773
01:36:29,760 --> 01:36:30,439
Speaker 2: anything for you.

1774
01:36:31,000 --> 01:36:33,120
Speaker 1: The Articles of Confederation have come.

1775
01:36:32,960 --> 01:36:38,240
Speaker 2: Back, and I think that that actually might become, you know,

1776
01:36:38,400 --> 01:36:42,200
Speaker 2: part of the way in which we reintegrate or kind

1777
01:36:42,240 --> 01:36:45,479
Speaker 2: of reconnect, because you're starting to see states taken upon

1778
01:36:45,520 --> 01:36:48,000
Speaker 2: themselves to think, well, gosh, you know this is terrible.

1779
01:36:48,520 --> 01:36:50,120
Speaker 2: You know, we want to keep out of the time.

1780
01:36:52,360 --> 01:36:54,160
Speaker 1: Of all this ends up we factualize.

1781
01:36:54,800 --> 01:36:57,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's I think there is a high

1782
01:36:57,320 --> 01:37:00,000
Speaker 2: likelihood of that happening, whether you know people are really

1783
01:37:00,040 --> 01:37:04,040
Speaker 2: cognizant of it or not. You're already seeing vaccine mandate,

1784
01:37:04,120 --> 01:37:06,880
Speaker 2: compact public health. Yeah, we've seen that right in the

1785
01:37:06,960 --> 01:37:10,479
Speaker 2: West Coast California, Washington, and Oregon. He's starting to say

1786
01:37:10,479 --> 01:37:13,640
Speaker 2: in New England. You're starting to see universities, you know,

1787
01:37:13,680 --> 01:37:15,880
Speaker 2: trying to link together as they're under attack and higher

1788
01:37:16,000 --> 01:37:19,640
Speaker 2: ed you know, thinking about partnerships and programs abroad or

1789
01:37:19,760 --> 01:37:21,559
Speaker 2: you know, across the United States and where they never

1790
01:37:21,600 --> 01:37:25,840
Speaker 2: did before. Trump is catalyzing, you know, a lot of

1791
01:37:25,920 --> 01:37:27,960
Speaker 2: change that needed to happen, you know, let's say, because

1792
01:37:27,960 --> 01:37:31,880
Speaker 2: I mean, we know that, but it's a backing ball,

1793
01:37:31,920 --> 01:37:33,720
Speaker 2: you know, it's a kind of a we're all going

1794
01:37:33,800 --> 01:37:36,000
Speaker 2: to be rebuilding, and that's what the approach is going

1795
01:37:36,040 --> 01:37:38,439
Speaker 2: to have to be for new president rebuild. And you're

1796
01:37:38,479 --> 01:37:40,720
Speaker 2: also going to have to prioritize. And I don't know

1797
01:37:40,720 --> 01:37:43,559
Speaker 2: whether this national security strategy was it because we said, hey,

1798
01:37:44,000 --> 01:37:46,680
Speaker 2: we've moved away from the Middle East, we appear to

1799
01:37:46,720 --> 01:37:49,400
Speaker 2: be mooluntarily back in it. So we're really going to

1800
01:37:49,439 --> 01:37:51,320
Speaker 2: have to decide about where is it that we want

1801
01:37:51,320 --> 01:37:54,840
Speaker 2: to use the full impact of US power, depending on

1802
01:37:54,880 --> 01:37:57,479
Speaker 2: what's left of that at the end of this, if you.

1803
01:37:57,439 --> 01:38:01,320
Speaker 1: Were sitting I'm going to two more questions, I want

1804
01:38:01,320 --> 01:38:02,400
Speaker 1: to get you out of here. But if you were

1805
01:38:02,439 --> 01:38:07,679
Speaker 1: sitting in She's shoes and you wanted to move on Taiwan,

1806
01:38:07,840 --> 01:38:11,400
Speaker 1: wouldn't you absolutely prioritize doing it while Trump's in office?

1807
01:38:16,120 --> 01:38:18,000
Speaker 2: Yes? And no, I mean yes, it would seem like

1808
01:38:18,040 --> 01:38:22,639
Speaker 2: this is the you know, the really logical the times

1809
01:38:22,840 --> 01:38:24,439
Speaker 2: it's not going to do anything about it. Yeah, I

1810
01:38:24,560 --> 01:38:26,320
Speaker 2: want to do it, and everybody else is just watching

1811
01:38:26,360 --> 01:38:28,880
Speaker 2: the horrors and folding elsewhere. They might not even notice

1812
01:38:28,920 --> 01:38:31,000
Speaker 2: you've done it, you know, apart from all the articles

1813
01:38:31,000 --> 01:38:33,640
Speaker 2: that I just wanted it says bye bye Taiwan. But

1814
01:38:33,680 --> 01:38:35,639
Speaker 2: at the time, you know, it depends on what else

1815
01:38:35,720 --> 01:38:38,479
Speaker 2: you think you can get out of this current moment

1816
01:38:39,040 --> 01:38:41,840
Speaker 2: in terms of forging you know, ties with other countries,

1817
01:38:42,080 --> 01:38:43,840
Speaker 2: you know, kind of picking up the you know, the

1818
01:38:43,920 --> 01:38:47,360
Speaker 2: rubble from the rubble, you know, the damaged, you know, goods,

1819
01:38:47,400 --> 01:38:49,400
Speaker 2: and you know, reforging.

1820
01:38:49,680 --> 01:38:52,559
Speaker 1: She's a bit narcissistic though, I mean, he's he looks

1821
01:38:52,560 --> 01:38:54,439
Speaker 1: at the long game a little bit more than Trump does,

1822
01:38:54,479 --> 01:38:56,879
Speaker 1: but he also seems a bit shortsighted at times too.

1823
01:38:56,960 --> 01:38:58,880
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, yeah, and he's sort of consolidating in

1824
01:38:58,920 --> 01:39:02,080
Speaker 2: a power at the moment. You know, in ways when you're.

1825
01:39:01,960 --> 01:39:06,160
Speaker 1: Purge in your military like that that's what you have purged.

1826
01:39:06,160 --> 01:39:07,840
Speaker 2: Your military might not be able to rely on in

1827
01:39:07,880 --> 01:39:10,040
Speaker 2: the same way. And it might just be that, you know,

1828
01:39:10,560 --> 01:39:13,719
Speaker 2: you might be able to put more force on Taiwan

1829
01:39:13,760 --> 01:39:16,680
Speaker 2: in different ways to make Taiwan think, actually, you might

1830
01:39:16,720 --> 01:39:20,000
Speaker 2: be better off with China now than this mayhem and

1831
01:39:20,080 --> 01:39:22,800
Speaker 2: chaos given what the United States is doing, and maybe

1832
01:39:22,840 --> 01:39:25,840
Speaker 2: that other countries, you know, as they are looking for

1833
01:39:25,880 --> 01:39:29,280
Speaker 2: alternatives to the United States, maybe just more amenable as

1834
01:39:29,320 --> 01:39:31,559
Speaker 2: people already are to doing things with China in ways

1835
01:39:31,560 --> 01:39:33,840
Speaker 2: that might become more beneficial. I mean, if I was she,

1836
01:39:34,040 --> 01:39:36,320
Speaker 2: but I'm not, you know, and I obviously don't think

1837
01:39:36,320 --> 01:39:38,000
Speaker 2: in the way he is, I'd wait a bit, you know,

1838
01:39:38,040 --> 01:39:41,080
Speaker 2: and see how this, see how this plays out. But

1839
01:39:41,160 --> 01:39:43,320
Speaker 2: it may well be that, you know, kind of he

1840
01:39:43,400 --> 01:39:46,280
Speaker 2: may also think that this is a window that he

1841
01:39:46,320 --> 01:39:48,320
Speaker 2: has to take advantage of because it closes, just like

1842
01:39:48,360 --> 01:39:51,080
Speaker 2: the Israeli case for We've got to go now, you know.

1843
01:39:51,160 --> 01:39:53,160
Speaker 2: So you just again, we don't know, but I'm just

1844
01:39:53,160 --> 01:39:55,680
Speaker 2: saying there could be a lot of opportunity here, you know,

1845
01:39:55,760 --> 01:39:59,439
Speaker 2: for other countries to play things differently. I think already

1846
01:39:59,479 --> 01:40:02,760
Speaker 2: we've moved beyond a US dominated world in the way

1847
01:40:02,800 --> 01:40:04,760
Speaker 2: that it has been for the last eighty years. We're

1848
01:40:04,760 --> 01:40:07,760
Speaker 2: in a kind of post packs Americana fisuer because that's

1849
01:40:07,800 --> 01:40:09,840
Speaker 2: all kind of broken down. The US no longer keeps

1850
01:40:09,840 --> 01:40:12,600
Speaker 2: the peace. But we might be in a you know,

1851
01:40:12,680 --> 01:40:16,360
Speaker 2: it's a sort of a post American empire phase as well,

1852
01:40:16,360 --> 01:40:18,760
Speaker 2: where other countries are all just basically now starting to

1853
01:40:18,760 --> 01:40:22,160
Speaker 2: look out for themselves, but regrouping in different groups that

1854
01:40:22,240 --> 01:40:23,000
Speaker 2: might exclude the.

1855
01:40:23,560 --> 01:40:25,920
Speaker 1: We did that as a globe. We had a lot

1856
01:40:25,920 --> 01:40:26,760
Speaker 1: of wars.

1857
01:40:26,960 --> 01:40:29,040
Speaker 2: We did, and we've got more of wars now and

1858
01:40:29,080 --> 01:40:31,360
Speaker 2: they're all, you know, getting tangled up, whether we like

1859
01:40:31,400 --> 01:40:33,280
Speaker 2: it or not, because the United States is no longer

1860
01:40:33,360 --> 01:40:37,559
Speaker 2: acting as a peacemaker and you know we're not. We're

1861
01:40:37,560 --> 01:40:38,160
Speaker 2: just not doing that.

1862
01:40:38,360 --> 01:40:39,599
Speaker 1: I thought he ended eight wars.

1863
01:40:39,720 --> 01:40:42,280
Speaker 2: Sorry, Yeah, apparently.

1864
01:40:44,200 --> 01:40:50,840
Speaker 1: Pudens lifespan his health and is there is there an

1865
01:40:50,880 --> 01:40:54,800
Speaker 1: air apparent? Is he grooming anybody? You know? He seems

1866
01:40:54,880 --> 01:41:01,679
Speaker 1: you know what, is Russia still vulnerable to massive change

1867
01:41:01,720 --> 01:41:03,559
Speaker 1: and upheaval if Putin dies?

1868
01:41:04,960 --> 01:41:07,200
Speaker 2: That's the point. Yes, of course it's vulnerable, as is

1869
01:41:07,240 --> 01:41:09,640
Speaker 2: the United States frankly, if something happens to put a

1870
01:41:09,680 --> 01:41:14,080
Speaker 2: Trump and also China was she Because once you consolidate

1871
01:41:14,160 --> 01:41:16,360
Speaker 2: so much power in one individual, it's a very unhealthy

1872
01:41:16,400 --> 01:41:19,040
Speaker 2: for your political system, whether there are an autocracy, and

1873
01:41:19,120 --> 01:41:21,920
Speaker 2: especially if you're a democracy, you know, but autocracy as well,

1874
01:41:22,080 --> 01:41:25,200
Speaker 2: because you know, none of these strong men leaders want

1875
01:41:25,240 --> 01:41:26,840
Speaker 2: to groom a successor because they don't want to be

1876
01:41:26,880 --> 01:41:28,760
Speaker 2: a lamb duck because in their settings, a lamb duck

1877
01:41:28,840 --> 01:41:31,080
Speaker 2: might be a dead duck, you know, because somebody starts

1878
01:41:31,080 --> 01:41:33,719
Speaker 2: to kind of expedite the process because they would actually

1879
01:41:33,720 --> 01:41:36,080
Speaker 2: like to step into the shoes. And that's certainly how

1880
01:41:36,120 --> 01:41:38,479
Speaker 2: Putin thinks, and maybe that's the way that you know

1881
01:41:38,600 --> 01:41:40,719
Speaker 2: she thinks as well, because the more you move away

1882
01:41:40,720 --> 01:41:43,759
Speaker 2: from something that's structured, even if you do have structures

1883
01:41:43,760 --> 01:41:49,760
Speaker 2: in players for choosing a leader, strength structure, right, you know, yeah,

1884
01:41:49,800 --> 01:41:53,120
Speaker 2: I mean look quite vulnerable, right, and I mean yes,

1885
01:41:53,160 --> 01:41:55,000
Speaker 2: it used to be our strength. But Trump is basically

1886
01:41:55,080 --> 01:41:58,200
Speaker 2: saying that nothing is important but him in the United

1887
01:41:58,200 --> 01:42:00,240
Speaker 2: States at the moment. That's what Putin says. You know,

1888
01:42:00,240 --> 01:42:02,679
Speaker 2: it's been wild that, you know, over the last couple

1889
01:42:02,760 --> 01:42:06,080
Speaker 2: of weeks, you know, when people talking about Mega for example,

1890
01:42:06,200 --> 01:42:08,240
Speaker 2: and Trump himself has said, there's no MAGA without me.

1891
01:42:08,680 --> 01:42:10,960
Speaker 2: You know, basically in Russia Putin's office, there's no Russia

1892
01:42:10,960 --> 01:42:14,400
Speaker 2: without Putin, and no Russia without you know, without Russia.

1893
01:42:14,479 --> 01:42:16,759
Speaker 2: And it's all of this, it's all of a wonness.

1894
01:42:17,080 --> 01:42:19,719
Speaker 2: You know that you've got this same kind of mindset,

1895
01:42:19,760 --> 01:42:24,040
Speaker 2: and that becomes extraordinary brittle uh and and and you know,

1896
01:42:24,360 --> 01:42:26,720
Speaker 2: a risk of upheaval in the Russian case. We had

1897
01:42:26,720 --> 01:42:29,840
Speaker 2: that after Stalin on the Soviet case, and of course,

1898
01:42:29,840 --> 01:42:32,400
Speaker 2: you know, eventually out of that game a collective leadership

1899
01:42:32,400 --> 01:42:34,559
Speaker 2: and then crush off and then you know, kind of

1900
01:42:34,600 --> 01:42:37,439
Speaker 2: lots of boring, you know, kind of ways of uh

1901
01:42:37,640 --> 01:42:40,439
Speaker 2: selecting leaders after that. And you know that, look, that

1902
01:42:40,520 --> 01:42:43,520
Speaker 2: could happen in Russia, but you know there are successors

1903
01:42:43,560 --> 01:42:46,840
Speaker 2: out there, potential successes who come from the you know,

1904
01:42:46,880 --> 01:42:50,120
Speaker 2: the the bodyguards from the security services that you know

1905
01:42:50,240 --> 01:42:51,960
Speaker 2: seem to be close to put a good step up

1906
01:42:51,960 --> 01:42:53,840
Speaker 2: and could just you know, continue what he's been doing,

1907
01:42:54,040 --> 01:42:56,360
Speaker 2: you know, the equivalent of what we've seen in in

1908
01:42:56,439 --> 01:43:01,920
Speaker 2: battles wield of Maduro to Chavez or to Ayatollah Many's son.

1909
01:43:01,960 --> 01:43:04,160
Speaker 1: You know, for example, there was a time three or

1910
01:43:04,160 --> 01:43:05,680
Speaker 1: four years ago where I think we all had a

1911
01:43:05,720 --> 01:43:08,920
Speaker 1: little bit of hope that the Russian people might might

1912
01:43:08,960 --> 01:43:11,640
Speaker 1: be a check on Putin. That doesn't seem to be

1913
01:43:11,680 --> 01:43:12,080
Speaker 1: the case.

1914
01:43:12,400 --> 01:43:14,519
Speaker 2: Well, a lot of Europeans everybody else wondering why the

1915
01:43:14,520 --> 01:43:16,240
Speaker 2: American people are not a check.

1916
01:43:16,120 --> 01:43:19,160
Speaker 1: On I get this question all the time. You're not

1917
01:43:19,240 --> 01:43:20,000
Speaker 1: in the streets more.

1918
01:43:20,160 --> 01:43:22,600
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly. Well, that's exactly it, because you know that

1919
01:43:22,920 --> 01:43:25,920
Speaker 2: we've seen that the barriers are quite high when you

1920
01:43:26,000 --> 01:43:27,920
Speaker 2: have a couple, you know, more than a couple of

1921
01:43:27,960 --> 01:43:33,439
Speaker 2: protesters shot by falses. You got you know, American citizens

1922
01:43:33,439 --> 01:43:37,799
Speaker 2: who were disappeared you know, by ice, which has happened,

1923
01:43:38,640 --> 01:43:40,320
Speaker 2: and you know, you've got a kind of a feeling

1924
01:43:40,320 --> 01:43:43,559
Speaker 2: of impunity in the system. The barrier is to entry

1925
01:43:43,640 --> 01:43:46,080
Speaker 2: and to protest and you know kind of doing more

1926
01:43:46,160 --> 01:43:48,519
Speaker 2: very high, and Russia is on that, you know, way

1927
01:43:48,800 --> 01:43:52,320
Speaker 2: much higher, particularly blank piece of paper. We've even had

1928
01:43:52,360 --> 01:43:55,120
Speaker 2: in the UK, the ridiculous situation, you know, after the

1929
01:43:55,160 --> 01:43:58,639
Speaker 2: banning of Palestine, action of people being arrested as well,

1930
01:43:58,840 --> 01:44:01,080
Speaker 2: you know, for holding up you know, pieces of paper.

1931
01:44:01,479 --> 01:44:03,760
Speaker 2: We've got in all of societies. Now this kind of

1932
01:44:04,200 --> 01:44:07,880
Speaker 2: you know, if your protest is out of step with

1933
01:44:08,240 --> 01:44:11,360
Speaker 2: how people feel you know that their politics is going

1934
01:44:11,479 --> 01:44:14,120
Speaker 2: or you know, the the mals or you know, values,

1935
01:44:14,160 --> 01:44:16,280
Speaker 2: et cetera. You you know, can have everything kind of

1936
01:44:16,360 --> 01:44:18,400
Speaker 2: come down in you with a with a massive weight.

1937
01:44:18,800 --> 01:44:20,360
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, we should have a little

1938
01:44:20,400 --> 01:44:23,760
Speaker 2: bit more understanding than you know, where the you know,

1939
01:44:23,760 --> 01:44:26,400
Speaker 2: the Russians are coming from, because it's also feeling. I've

1940
01:44:26,400 --> 01:44:28,400
Speaker 2: had so many people recently and the last week said

1941
01:44:28,439 --> 01:44:30,400
Speaker 2: to me, I feel helpless. I feel like I have

1942
01:44:30,479 --> 01:44:32,559
Speaker 2: no voice. I feel like I have no agency. You know,

1943
01:44:32,600 --> 01:44:33,280
Speaker 2: what can I do?

1944
01:44:35,200 --> 01:44:38,280
Speaker 1: I just you know, here, I tell them go vote.

1945
01:44:38,560 --> 01:44:40,160
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, and also you can do a lot of

1946
01:44:40,160 --> 01:44:42,639
Speaker 2: things in your own community, and we can, all of us,

1947
01:44:43,000 --> 01:44:45,080
Speaker 2: you know, but basically could press on our members of

1948
01:44:45,080 --> 01:44:48,320
Speaker 2: Congress to remember there are members of Congress. I mean,

1949
01:44:48,360 --> 01:44:50,479
Speaker 2: I'm very I'm a really good member of Congress. I

1950
01:44:50,479 --> 01:44:52,600
Speaker 2: sort of certain feel that in his responsive I have

1951
01:44:52,680 --> 01:44:55,240
Speaker 2: Jamie Raskin, you know, but you know, if I was

1952
01:44:55,240 --> 01:44:58,120
Speaker 2: in another situation, you know, I might not feel that,

1953
01:44:58,600 --> 01:45:00,160
Speaker 2: you know, kind of the somebody is you know, so

1954
01:45:00,360 --> 01:45:02,400
Speaker 2: active in that way or as you know, he's certainly

1955
01:45:02,400 --> 01:45:04,680
Speaker 2: not scared to stand up and say things, you know.

1956
01:45:04,760 --> 01:45:06,559
Speaker 2: But so I think everybody, no matter where they are,

1957
01:45:06,600 --> 01:45:09,599
Speaker 2: no matter you know, what part of the partisan spectrum

1958
01:45:09,600 --> 01:45:12,719
Speaker 2: they're on, they should be demanding that they're members of Congress,

1959
01:45:12,800 --> 01:45:16,000
Speaker 2: really represent them and represent all their constituencies, and remember

1960
01:45:16,000 --> 01:45:17,080
Speaker 2: that they're a branch of power.

1961
01:45:18,000 --> 01:45:22,479
Speaker 1: So is it fair to say that you're you, you're

1962
01:45:22,520 --> 01:45:25,400
Speaker 1: epitomizing the great John McCain joke, which is it's always

1963
01:45:25,439 --> 01:45:30,240
Speaker 1: darkest before it goes totally black. You're pretty realistically grim

1964
01:45:30,320 --> 01:45:33,559
Speaker 1: about the short term future. It's honestly where I said,

1965
01:45:33,560 --> 01:45:36,640
Speaker 1: I always say, I'm short term pessimistic, long long term optimistic.

1966
01:45:36,680 --> 01:45:38,759
Speaker 1: We eventually figured out.

1967
01:45:37,640 --> 01:45:40,960
Speaker 2: But I think we will figure it out, but it's

1968
01:45:40,960 --> 01:45:43,720
Speaker 2: probably going to be in ways that we've just not anticipated.

1969
01:45:43,760 --> 01:45:46,000
Speaker 2: As I said, it's a lot going to happen at

1970
01:45:46,000 --> 01:45:49,040
Speaker 2: the state and local government level. You know, we already

1971
01:45:49,080 --> 01:45:51,160
Speaker 2: see that. I think a lot of people might opt

1972
01:45:51,200 --> 01:45:54,840
Speaker 2: out of national politics for quite some time because they'll

1973
01:45:54,840 --> 01:45:57,680
Speaker 2: just feel that this is just hopeless and useless. But

1974
01:45:57,760 --> 01:45:59,639
Speaker 2: you know that, but we might actually start to see

1975
01:45:59,640 --> 01:46:02,160
Speaker 2: a drive for change coming from I mean, look, that

1976
01:46:02,280 --> 01:46:06,200
Speaker 2: is the real source I think of American strength, which

1977
01:46:06,240 --> 01:46:09,799
Speaker 2: is in the federal system and in the American people

1978
01:46:09,920 --> 01:46:11,840
Speaker 2: writ large, not just as somebody.

1979
01:46:11,840 --> 01:46:14,760
Speaker 1: No, I try to tell people, it's what Tokeville, it's

1980
01:46:14,800 --> 01:46:17,160
Speaker 1: what to Touville said about us in democracy from America.

1981
01:46:17,320 --> 01:46:19,720
Speaker 1: Was the thing he admired the most about our democracy

1982
01:46:19,760 --> 01:46:22,759
Speaker 1: is how local it was and how people are locally.

1983
01:46:23,160 --> 01:46:26,439
Speaker 2: The more people run for Congress, even as independents, you know,

1984
01:46:26,479 --> 01:46:28,439
Speaker 2: the more that you can really kind of get people

1985
01:46:28,439 --> 01:46:29,800
Speaker 2: out there. So I would urge people to go and

1986
01:46:29,880 --> 01:46:32,439
Speaker 2: run for your school board, you know, run you know,

1987
01:46:32,479 --> 01:46:36,360
Speaker 2: for local government, get involved in your communities, and write

1988
01:46:36,400 --> 01:46:39,240
Speaker 2: to your call your Congress people, and just get them

1989
01:46:39,240 --> 01:46:44,000
Speaker 2: to get with their jobs and be brave.

1990
01:46:44,080 --> 01:46:46,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I just want these members of Congress to

1991
01:46:46,280 --> 01:46:49,519
Speaker 1: read the Constitution and understand Article one. I feel like

1992
01:46:49,560 --> 01:46:51,439
Speaker 1: most of them haven't read it well.

1993
01:46:51,439 --> 01:46:53,680
Speaker 2: When I became a citizen, as an acturalized citizen, I

1994
01:46:53,720 --> 01:46:55,920
Speaker 2: was given a copy of the Interconstitution and I have

1995
01:46:56,000 --> 01:46:58,479
Speaker 2: it in my bag all the time because, you know,

1996
01:46:58,840 --> 01:47:01,559
Speaker 2: as somebody who are to knows the Constitution, I thought

1997
01:47:01,600 --> 01:47:04,719
Speaker 2: I should kind of know what you're wearing myself with it. Yeah, exactly.

1998
01:47:04,880 --> 01:47:06,639
Speaker 2: And we do need to have more of these kinds

1999
01:47:06,640 --> 01:47:09,000
Speaker 2: of conversations, Todd as well. We need to have all

2000
01:47:09,120 --> 01:47:12,559
Speaker 2: kinds of national level conversations about where we're heading, because

2001
01:47:12,560 --> 01:47:14,879
Speaker 2: this is you know, a very difficult time to affects

2002
01:47:14,880 --> 01:47:17,120
Speaker 2: all of us. And you know, even if Trump might

2003
01:47:17,160 --> 01:47:19,439
Speaker 2: have had the right and all kinds of nationales to

2004
01:47:21,040 --> 01:47:25,120
Speaker 2: basically attack Iran, we all had the right to, you know,

2005
01:47:25,200 --> 01:47:28,720
Speaker 2: basically say what happens in the future. So you know,

2006
01:47:28,840 --> 01:47:30,960
Speaker 2: let's kind of find out different ways of being able

2007
01:47:30,960 --> 01:47:33,240
Speaker 2: to participate in this. And I think everybody needs to

2008
01:47:33,280 --> 01:47:37,519
Speaker 2: inform themselves about, you know, what is actually happening. Read widely,

2009
01:47:37,880 --> 01:47:40,640
Speaker 2: listen to people like you, you know, listen to podcasts,

2010
01:47:40,640 --> 01:47:42,599
Speaker 2: and you know, try to get and engage in all

2011
01:47:42,640 --> 01:47:42,800
Speaker 2: of this.

2012
01:47:44,080 --> 01:47:46,360
Speaker 1: Well, that's where I get hopeful. The last time we

2013
01:47:46,360 --> 01:47:48,599
Speaker 1: were in a period like this, in the early twentieth century,

2014
01:47:48,720 --> 01:47:51,640
Speaker 1: we made some of the biggest reforms onto our constitution

2015
01:47:52,400 --> 01:47:55,040
Speaker 1: that mattered a lot, whether it was direct election of senators,

2016
01:47:55,120 --> 01:47:58,920
Speaker 1: women that right to vote, and the income tax, which

2017
01:47:59,000 --> 01:48:02,640
Speaker 1: we had this mass of oligarchy then that was developing

2018
01:48:03,320 --> 01:48:07,880
Speaker 1: with with industrialization. So we did it once, but it

2019
01:48:08,360 --> 01:48:11,320
Speaker 1: you know, we have to feel more pain. That's usually

2020
01:48:11,360 --> 01:48:12,040
Speaker 1: the American way.

2021
01:48:13,120 --> 01:48:14,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we definitely can't do it again, though we

2022
01:48:14,760 --> 01:48:16,360
Speaker 2: definitely come we will.

2023
01:48:16,560 --> 01:48:23,200
Speaker 1: Fiona is a great conversation. Realistic optimism does it right?

2024
01:48:24,720 --> 01:48:25,200
Speaker 2: Thanks?

2025
01:48:35,360 --> 01:48:37,519
Speaker 1: Well, I hope you enjoyed that conversation with Fiona Hill.

2026
01:48:37,560 --> 01:48:41,679
Speaker 1: I really found you know, it's interesting she has spent

2027
01:48:42,000 --> 01:48:44,120
Speaker 1: she has spent a lot of time traveling the US

2028
01:48:44,160 --> 01:48:47,240
Speaker 1: outside of the coasts, if you will, outside the SLA

2029
01:48:47,280 --> 01:48:51,799
Speaker 1: corridor are going. And I find myself feeling very similarly

2030
01:48:51,960 --> 01:48:54,200
Speaker 1: that she does. When you get out there and you

2031
01:48:54,240 --> 01:48:57,439
Speaker 1: start having conversations with folks outside of the bubbles of

2032
01:48:57,439 --> 01:49:02,200
Speaker 1: New York and Washington, l a Silicon Valley, there's actually

2033
01:49:02,240 --> 01:49:06,000
Speaker 1: a larger consensus out there of frustration with the dysfunction,

2034
01:49:06,840 --> 01:49:11,080
Speaker 1: frustration with this sort of top down approach on everything,

2035
01:49:11,160 --> 01:49:15,360
Speaker 1: you know, singular with politics and now singular with wealth,

2036
01:49:15,400 --> 01:49:18,599
Speaker 1: and with what's happening with AI and the and the

2037
01:49:18,840 --> 01:49:21,519
Speaker 1: and the Silicon Valley oligarchs and all this stuff. Right

2038
01:49:22,120 --> 01:49:25,720
Speaker 1: that that there is a there is a the And

2039
01:49:25,920 --> 01:49:29,040
Speaker 1: I think it's interesting. I think she thinks that many

2040
01:49:29,080 --> 01:49:32,120
Speaker 1: people are going to retreat from federal politics but concentrate locally.

2041
01:49:33,120 --> 01:49:35,360
Speaker 1: That's not the worst outcome if that's what happens over

2042
01:49:35,400 --> 01:49:37,800
Speaker 1: the next ten years, that we basically retreat locally and

2043
01:49:37,800 --> 01:49:41,720
Speaker 1: rebuild our local institutions, and once we rebuild the local institutions,

2044
01:49:41,880 --> 01:49:48,679
Speaker 1: local information ecosystem, clean rooting out corrupt transactional politicians, things

2045
01:49:48,720 --> 01:49:52,840
Speaker 1: like that, then it might be a lot easier to

2046
01:49:52,880 --> 01:49:55,679
Speaker 1: do the restorative part of the democracy on the state

2047
01:49:55,760 --> 01:49:59,040
Speaker 1: level and the federal level. Once once we all clean

2048
01:49:59,120 --> 01:50:02,639
Speaker 1: up our own back yards. All right. With that, let's

2049
01:50:02,680 --> 01:50:07,960
Speaker 1: get to some mess. Chuck ass chuck, all right, This

2050
01:50:08,000 --> 01:50:10,080
Speaker 1: one comes from Julie from Portland. Hey, chuck, it used

2051
01:50:10,080 --> 01:50:11,880
Speaker 1: to be that we had a long time in between

2052
01:50:11,880 --> 01:50:13,639
Speaker 1: a major crisis, and now we seem to be getting

2053
01:50:13,760 --> 01:50:15,960
Speaker 1: several every week since the beginning of the year. I

2054
01:50:15,960 --> 01:50:18,439
Speaker 1: can recall we've had Venezuela, Greenland, Minnesota, and now we're

2055
01:50:18,439 --> 01:50:20,439
Speaker 1: with Iron. And I feel that there have been several

2056
01:50:20,439 --> 01:50:23,200
Speaker 1: more crises in between these things, but they come and

2057
01:50:23,200 --> 01:50:25,240
Speaker 1: go so rapidly that I can keep up. How is

2058
01:50:25,280 --> 01:50:27,320
Speaker 1: the psyche of the American people supposed to endure? With

2059
01:50:27,360 --> 01:50:29,880
Speaker 1: all these major changes and threats coming coming at us

2060
01:50:29,880 --> 01:50:31,840
Speaker 1: so quickly, the midterms seemed very far away. Not to

2061
01:50:31,880 --> 01:50:35,200
Speaker 1: mention twenty twenty eight, appreciate your thoughts things Well, this

2062
01:50:35,400 --> 01:50:38,400
Speaker 1: is when you hear the word chaos, right, And this

2063
01:50:39,800 --> 01:50:43,479
Speaker 1: became a popular buzzword on the campaign trail in twenty

2064
01:50:43,520 --> 01:50:47,240
Speaker 1: eighteen and twenty twenty because it grew out of a

2065
01:50:47,280 --> 01:50:50,680
Speaker 1: lot of good old fashioned voter focus groups. Right, And

2066
01:50:50,800 --> 01:50:54,479
Speaker 1: say what you will about focus grouping everything and things

2067
01:50:54,479 --> 01:50:59,599
Speaker 1: like this, I find voter focus groups pretty helpful because

2068
01:50:59,640 --> 01:51:02,479
Speaker 1: you do, you know, you hear the words of actual voters,

2069
01:51:02,479 --> 01:51:08,560
Speaker 1: not you know, some posters interpretation, and what you're describing

2070
01:51:08,880 --> 01:51:11,640
Speaker 1: this is that it's you know, why you hear a

2071
01:51:11,640 --> 01:51:13,799
Speaker 1: lot of politicians, Hey, can we just stop the chaos?

2072
01:51:14,680 --> 01:51:17,000
Speaker 1: You know, can we just can we just you know,

2073
01:51:17,360 --> 01:51:19,920
Speaker 1: put a halt to this. Look, Joe Biden won because

2074
01:51:19,960 --> 01:51:22,400
Speaker 1: he was the anti chaos candidate, and then I think

2075
01:51:22,439 --> 01:51:24,400
Speaker 1: the mistake he made is he brought his own set

2076
01:51:24,439 --> 01:51:29,200
Speaker 1: of chaos to governing right when really people just wanted

2077
01:51:29,200 --> 01:51:32,280
Speaker 1: to take a breath, you know. I think, you know,

2078
01:51:32,520 --> 01:51:35,080
Speaker 1: a little bit of Trump disruption was good. A lot

2079
01:51:35,080 --> 01:51:39,719
Speaker 1: of bit of Trump disruption is exhausting. I'm going to choose.

2080
01:51:39,800 --> 01:51:41,680
Speaker 1: I do think that in the long term we will

2081
01:51:41,720 --> 01:51:45,479
Speaker 1: look at Trump's presidencies as an important MRI for the country,

2082
01:51:45,840 --> 01:51:51,200
Speaker 1: for our soul, and hopefully we now see some things

2083
01:51:51,200 --> 01:51:52,840
Speaker 1: that we don't like and we want to do something

2084
01:51:52,840 --> 01:52:01,320
Speaker 1: about them. But I actually think this feeling that we

2085
01:52:01,400 --> 01:52:04,760
Speaker 1: don't have control of events right, that everything is moving

2086
01:52:04,800 --> 01:52:08,160
Speaker 1: so quickly we can wrap our arms around it is

2087
01:52:08,200 --> 01:52:11,479
Speaker 1: actually one of the It's one of those It's a

2088
01:52:11,640 --> 01:52:15,880
Speaker 1: it's a tough question to pull, you know, when you say,

2089
01:52:15,880 --> 01:52:18,439
Speaker 1: what are the most important issues. You know, if I

2090
01:52:18,479 --> 01:52:20,360
Speaker 1: ask you that as a polster, you're going to give

2091
01:52:20,400 --> 01:52:23,519
Speaker 1: me issues. But it sounds like for you one of

2092
01:52:23,560 --> 01:52:25,880
Speaker 1: the most important issues to Can we just slow down?

2093
01:52:25,880 --> 01:52:28,120
Speaker 1: Can we stop the chaos? Can we stop the you know,

2094
01:52:28,280 --> 01:52:31,560
Speaker 1: just sort of like you know, I think this is

2095
01:52:31,600 --> 01:52:34,519
Speaker 1: a feature of Trump, right, This is you know, he's

2096
01:52:34,520 --> 01:52:37,320
Speaker 1: got short attention span, he's got his version of add

2097
01:52:37,920 --> 01:52:41,080
Speaker 1: so he's making us all sort of conform to his

2098
01:52:41,760 --> 01:52:44,320
Speaker 1: way of doing things. He loves this, he doesn't he

2099
01:52:44,400 --> 01:52:47,679
Speaker 1: can't folk. Anybody that has ever tried to brief Donald

2100
01:52:47,680 --> 01:52:50,040
Speaker 1: Trump on a serious topic knows you've got about ten minutes,

2101
01:52:50,080 --> 01:52:53,320
Speaker 1: and you better bring pictures because if you go thirty minutes,

2102
01:52:53,400 --> 01:52:56,479
Speaker 1: forty five minutes and you know you're going to lose him.

2103
01:52:56,520 --> 01:52:58,839
Speaker 1: He's going to fall asleep. He's going to be distracted.

2104
01:52:58,880 --> 01:53:00,200
Speaker 1: He's going to take a call, he's going to ask

2105
01:53:00,280 --> 01:53:02,720
Speaker 1: for six guy cokes. He is just not going to

2106
01:53:02,760 --> 01:53:06,679
Speaker 1: stay focused. He's going to order you in Floorsheim shoes

2107
01:53:06,760 --> 01:53:11,680
Speaker 1: if you're a guy, by guessing your shoe size. But

2108
01:53:11,800 --> 01:53:15,479
Speaker 1: he's he's he's not gonna and don't leave him something

2109
01:53:15,479 --> 01:53:19,600
Speaker 1: to read. He's not going to read it. This is

2110
01:53:19,600 --> 01:53:22,400
Speaker 1: going to sound snarky and cynical. I don't believe he

2111
01:53:22,439 --> 01:53:27,880
Speaker 1: has read a book from beginning to end in thirty years, specifically,

2112
01:53:27,960 --> 01:53:32,000
Speaker 1: and certainly not his own books. That that has been proven, actually,

2113
01:53:32,560 --> 01:53:35,040
Speaker 1: but I would love to be proven wrong that he

2114
01:53:35,080 --> 01:53:38,520
Speaker 1: has read a book from front to back, just one

2115
01:53:38,760 --> 01:53:44,120
Speaker 1: this century one. I don't buy it. That's how short

2116
01:53:44,520 --> 01:53:46,640
Speaker 1: his attention span is. And so this is why this

2117
01:53:46,720 --> 01:53:48,760
Speaker 1: is kind of a feature of this administration. He just

2118
01:53:48,800 --> 01:53:51,680
Speaker 1: gets bored. He can't singularly focus on one thing at

2119
01:53:51,720 --> 01:53:56,519
Speaker 1: a time. So but I think this is this is

2120
01:53:56,560 --> 01:53:59,760
Speaker 1: what exhausts the what I call the silent majority, right.

2121
01:54:00,880 --> 01:54:03,920
Speaker 1: I think I gave that anecdote of sort of an

2122
01:54:03,920 --> 01:54:05,679
Speaker 1: acquaintance in mind that I ran into the day after

2123
01:54:05,720 --> 01:54:09,040
Speaker 1: the Texas primaries and he didn't realize the Texas primaries

2124
01:54:09,160 --> 01:54:12,120
Speaker 1: were happening, and he said, oh, what happened? And I

2125
01:54:12,200 --> 01:54:14,040
Speaker 1: told him what happened. He's like, oh, I just didn't

2126
01:54:14,040 --> 01:54:17,519
Speaker 1: want any more bomb throwers. Like there's an exhaustion out there.

2127
01:54:17,560 --> 01:54:20,639
Speaker 1: There's an exhaustion from the partisan warfare, there's an exhaustion

2128
01:54:20,760 --> 01:54:25,439
Speaker 1: from the crisis to crisis governance that Trump is comfortable in.

2129
01:54:25,479 --> 01:54:28,280
Speaker 1: You know, here's the thing. We're all on the same

2130
01:54:28,360 --> 01:54:33,080
Speaker 1: roller coaster. He's just not thrown up and the rest

2131
01:54:33,080 --> 01:54:37,839
Speaker 1: of us are so I you know, this is why

2132
01:54:38,600 --> 01:54:41,200
Speaker 1: I spent a long time deciding to go deep on

2133
01:54:41,200 --> 01:54:44,920
Speaker 1: one issue, because I think I've glossed over some things

2134
01:54:44,960 --> 01:54:47,440
Speaker 1: because I moved from you know, I get a little

2135
01:54:47,440 --> 01:54:49,520
Speaker 1: too reactionary in the moment, and I think the thing

2136
01:54:49,560 --> 01:54:52,240
Speaker 1: that we can do best here in the independent space,

2137
01:54:52,320 --> 01:54:55,960
Speaker 1: in the podcast space, is to take the unlimited amount

2138
01:54:56,000 --> 01:54:58,120
Speaker 1: of time that I do have, unlimited amount of bandwidth

2139
01:54:58,120 --> 01:55:03,000
Speaker 1: in theory that is here, and to meticulously explain something

2140
01:55:03,040 --> 01:55:09,160
Speaker 1: all the way from beginning to end. But the feeling

2141
01:55:09,200 --> 01:55:12,720
Speaker 1: you have you're not alone, and in fact I think

2142
01:55:12,760 --> 01:55:17,480
Speaker 1: it is. It is among the most important issues that

2143
01:55:17,520 --> 01:55:21,440
Speaker 1: I think are going to drive independence towards candidates that

2144
01:55:21,480 --> 01:55:25,080
Speaker 1: are running against any Republican incumbent, whether it's an independent

2145
01:55:25,200 --> 01:55:30,240
Speaker 1: or a Democrat. Next question comes from Gael Woodinville, Washington.

2146
01:55:30,720 --> 01:55:32,840
Speaker 1: Gail Rights, Hey, Chuck, thank you for the podcast that

2147
01:55:33,000 --> 01:55:35,200
Speaker 1: always calls it like it is. I appreciate you saying that.

2148
01:55:35,400 --> 01:55:36,839
Speaker 1: I know the War of the Ron and the Epstein

2149
01:55:36,880 --> 01:55:38,960
Speaker 1: files are taking up all of the attention lately but

2150
01:55:38,960 --> 01:55:42,880
Speaker 1: I feel like it's just a distraction, just distracting us

2151
01:55:42,880 --> 01:55:44,400
Speaker 1: from the real issue at hand, which is winning the

2152
01:55:44,400 --> 01:55:46,280
Speaker 1: House in the Senate November. Shouldn't be focus on the

2153
01:55:46,320 --> 01:55:49,240
Speaker 1: GOP enablers or allowing the destruction of our country and

2154
01:55:49,280 --> 01:55:51,880
Speaker 1: getting these pedophile protectors out of office. Thanks for all

2155
01:55:51,880 --> 01:55:56,160
Speaker 1: you do. You know, it's interesting to sort of put

2156
01:55:56,160 --> 01:55:59,040
Speaker 1: these two questions together, right, they kind of go together

2157
01:56:00,040 --> 01:56:03,839
Speaker 1: both from the northwest, right, Washington and Oregon. Julie from Portland,

2158
01:56:03,920 --> 01:56:11,360
Speaker 1: Gale from Woodenbille, Washington. You know, everything is a distraction

2159
01:56:11,680 --> 01:56:13,680
Speaker 1: in the moment from something else that we should be

2160
01:56:13,680 --> 01:56:16,000
Speaker 1: focused on. And this is sort of the Trump era

2161
01:56:16,200 --> 01:56:20,440
Speaker 1: in a nutshell, Right, he has started eight fires. We've

2162
01:56:20,440 --> 01:56:23,960
Speaker 1: got to put all eight fires out. Which fire do

2163
01:56:24,000 --> 01:56:27,879
Speaker 1: you put out first? Right? And it's the prioritization issue

2164
01:56:28,560 --> 01:56:35,440
Speaker 1: as always, Look in theory, I'm with You're right, everybody's

2165
01:56:35,480 --> 01:56:37,000
Speaker 1: got to you know, should stay in their lane and

2166
01:56:37,440 --> 01:56:42,280
Speaker 1: you know, make the main thing the main thing. But

2167
01:56:42,360 --> 01:56:44,720
Speaker 1: it is only March, and I would argue, if you're

2168
01:56:44,720 --> 01:56:46,840
Speaker 1: in elective office, you have some duty to try to

2169
01:56:46,840 --> 01:56:50,080
Speaker 1: deal with the situation. That is, before you go to

2170
01:56:50,120 --> 01:56:53,440
Speaker 1: the voters hoping for a different set of people to

2171
01:56:53,520 --> 01:56:56,200
Speaker 1: work with to then deal with the situation that will be.

2172
01:56:59,080 --> 01:57:04,080
Speaker 1: But you're you know, look, I one could argue that

2173
01:57:05,320 --> 01:57:12,120
Speaker 1: the the the more Trump handles Iran and Epstein, the

2174
01:57:12,160 --> 01:57:16,400
Speaker 1: more the easier for Democrats to focus on the House

2175
01:57:16,440 --> 01:57:20,400
Speaker 1: and Senate because you know what Trump's not focused on affordability.

2176
01:57:20,520 --> 01:57:23,879
Speaker 1: What Trump's not focused on is what there's domestic issues,

2177
01:57:24,960 --> 01:57:28,360
Speaker 1: the issue of rising health care costs, the issues rising

2178
01:57:28,360 --> 01:57:31,560
Speaker 1: electric bills, the issue of fear of AI job displacement.

2179
01:57:31,600 --> 01:57:34,680
Speaker 1: By the way, the most underreported number in the new

2180
01:57:34,760 --> 01:57:37,920
Speaker 1: NBC News poll is how unpopular AI is right now

2181
01:57:37,920 --> 01:57:45,000
Speaker 1: with the American people. What's interesting is how how cautious

2182
01:57:45,040 --> 01:57:48,080
Speaker 1: Democrats and elected office are at pushing back on AI.

2183
01:57:48,640 --> 01:57:51,480
Speaker 1: What they're really saying is they don't trust these Silicon

2184
01:57:51,600 --> 01:57:55,920
Speaker 1: Valley people to implement AI in a fair and equitable way.

2185
01:57:56,400 --> 01:57:59,520
Speaker 1: That's what this is telling me, right, the same people

2186
01:57:59,520 --> 01:58:01,680
Speaker 1: that brought you you the success that is social media

2187
01:58:01,680 --> 01:58:04,120
Speaker 1: and what that's done. Do you think social media has

2188
01:58:04,160 --> 01:58:08,680
Speaker 1: been a success or a failure for American society? My

2189
01:58:08,800 --> 01:58:10,760
Speaker 1: guess is if you asked it that way, and I

2190
01:58:10,800 --> 01:58:13,760
Speaker 1: would like some of my poster friends to ask this question,

2191
01:58:13,800 --> 01:58:15,800
Speaker 1: and as neutral of the ways you can, I have

2192
01:58:15,840 --> 01:58:19,280
Speaker 1: a feeling that the yes no would look a lot

2193
01:58:19,360 --> 01:58:23,800
Speaker 1: like the favorable unfavorable view when it came to artificial intelligencers.

2194
01:58:23,880 --> 01:58:28,240
Speaker 1: Right now is upside down in underwater. So I take

2195
01:58:28,280 --> 01:58:31,080
Speaker 1: your point that everything looks like it's a distraction from

2196
01:58:31,120 --> 01:58:33,320
Speaker 1: a just from something else that ought to be the focus.

2197
01:58:34,720 --> 01:58:39,000
Speaker 1: But in some ways, it is that chaos that may

2198
01:58:39,080 --> 01:58:42,520
Speaker 1: actually serve as a voting motivator for some people who

2199
01:58:42,840 --> 01:58:52,400
Speaker 1: just want off the Trump roller coaster. All right, next question.

2200
01:58:53,720 --> 01:58:56,720
Speaker 1: I think it comes from somebody from Kansas, but I

2201
01:58:56,760 --> 01:59:00,640
Speaker 1: don't have a name, but let me read the He says,

2202
01:59:00,720 --> 01:59:02,400
Speaker 1: you've spoken a few times about the amount of money

2203
01:59:02,440 --> 01:59:05,000
Speaker 1: necessary for the Republicans to defend their Senate seat in Texas.

2204
01:59:05,120 --> 01:59:07,080
Speaker 1: Would argue that money is becoming less of an issue

2205
01:59:07,120 --> 01:59:09,000
Speaker 1: for two reasons. First, it seems to be available in

2206
01:59:09,080 --> 01:59:12,400
Speaker 1: unlimited quantities. Well, if you're willing to wore yourself out

2207
01:59:12,440 --> 01:59:15,760
Speaker 1: for crypto or for AI. Yes, the amount of money

2208
01:59:15,800 --> 01:59:18,120
Speaker 1: spent in every election seems to increase since the last

2209
01:59:18,360 --> 01:59:22,000
Speaker 1: by wider and wider margins fact check true. Coupled with

2210
01:59:22,040 --> 01:59:24,600
Speaker 1: the law of diminishing returns, which says every additional dollar

2211
01:59:24,640 --> 01:59:27,680
Speaker 1: spent is less effective than the last. Also true, I

2212
01:59:27,680 --> 01:59:29,280
Speaker 1: think think there will always be enough money in every

2213
01:59:29,280 --> 01:59:34,520
Speaker 1: state that state it's needed in. What do you think?

2214
01:59:34,520 --> 01:59:36,240
Speaker 1: Thank you really enjoy your show and continue to wonder

2215
01:59:36,240 --> 01:59:39,520
Speaker 1: if Kansas will ever and then it trails off. So

2216
01:59:39,560 --> 01:59:43,320
Speaker 1: I think we missed one part of your secondary part

2217
01:59:43,320 --> 01:59:48,280
Speaker 1: of that question. I agree with you that you know

2218
01:59:48,960 --> 01:59:51,280
Speaker 1: it's been interesting. You know, Trump was out spent in

2219
01:59:51,320 --> 01:59:53,760
Speaker 1: sixteen but won the presidential election. Trump was out spent

2220
01:59:53,760 --> 01:59:57,000
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty but run the presidential election. Republicans are

2221
01:59:57,040 --> 01:59:59,440
Speaker 1: likely to outspend the Democrats in the midterms in twenty

2222
01:59:59,480 --> 02:00:01,600
Speaker 1: twenty six, and yet Democrats are likely to have a

2223
02:00:01,600 --> 02:00:05,520
Speaker 1: better mid term result than the Republicans. So you're not

2224
02:00:05,600 --> 02:00:09,160
Speaker 1: wrong that there is sort of a diminishing return with

2225
02:00:09,240 --> 02:00:12,440
Speaker 1: this big money. Part of it is the fragmentation issue, right,

2226
02:00:13,120 --> 02:00:15,880
Speaker 1: It is so much harder. You know, it used to

2227
02:00:15,960 --> 02:00:19,640
Speaker 1: be cheaper and efficient to reach ten million people with

2228
02:00:19,840 --> 02:00:22,720
Speaker 1: you know, just a just a you know, not a

2229
02:00:22,840 --> 02:00:26,360
Speaker 1: very diverse ad campaign. Now of course you've got to

2230
02:00:27,040 --> 02:00:30,320
Speaker 1: you've got to maybe, you know, and most political campaigns

2231
02:00:30,360 --> 02:00:34,520
Speaker 1: might produce six or seven unique television ads period. Now

2232
02:00:34,600 --> 02:00:38,120
Speaker 1: you need to do whatever your television message for the

2233
02:00:38,160 --> 02:00:40,400
Speaker 1: week is, you need to do six or seven different

2234
02:00:40,520 --> 02:00:43,280
Speaker 1: versions of it so that one makes sense on TikTok

2235
02:00:43,320 --> 02:00:45,120
Speaker 1: and one makes sense on YouTube, and one makes sense

2236
02:00:45,160 --> 02:00:47,839
Speaker 1: on YouTube TV, and one makes sense on cable television

2237
02:00:47,840 --> 02:00:52,880
Speaker 1: and one makes sense on broadcast. You know. So you know,

2238
02:00:52,960 --> 02:00:54,560
Speaker 1: part of it is that the cost of running these

2239
02:00:54,560 --> 02:01:00,760
Speaker 1: campaigns has exponentially grown as well. I understand the feeling

2240
02:01:00,800 --> 02:01:03,720
Speaker 1: that money is sort of like there's a there's always money, right,

2241
02:01:03,800 --> 02:01:08,000
Speaker 1: There's always money in the Banana stan, right, So yes,

2242
02:01:08,200 --> 02:01:10,839
Speaker 1: I tend to agree with you, but we are getting

2243
02:01:11,800 --> 02:01:18,280
Speaker 1: you know, these large giant forces Crypto AI are the

2244
02:01:18,280 --> 02:01:20,960
Speaker 1: two biggest ones, right. I mean, you look at what's

2245
02:01:20,960 --> 02:01:23,160
Speaker 1: happening in the Illinois Senate race, and it's just like

2246
02:01:23,800 --> 02:01:26,720
Speaker 1: there's a super pack for each candidate that is funded

2247
02:01:26,720 --> 02:01:30,120
Speaker 1: by some interest group that is not actually debate having

2248
02:01:30,120 --> 02:01:33,040
Speaker 1: an issue debated in this primary, but they're trying to

2249
02:01:33,080 --> 02:01:36,120
Speaker 1: buy an ally. Right. The Democratic primary for US Senate

2250
02:01:36,160 --> 02:01:41,080
Speaker 1: in Illinois is attracting huge money. People. Why because whoever

2251
02:01:41,120 --> 02:01:42,720
Speaker 1: wins a Democratic primary is going to be the US

2252
02:01:42,760 --> 02:01:46,640
Speaker 1: Senator in Illinois. So whether you're a crypto advocate. Whether

2253
02:01:46,680 --> 02:01:51,880
Speaker 1: you're an AI no regulation advocate or an AI pro

2254
02:01:51,960 --> 02:01:55,880
Speaker 1: regulation advocate, you're trying to find your ally in this

2255
02:01:56,000 --> 02:02:01,520
Speaker 1: democratic primary. So I I don't disagree with you about

2256
02:02:01,560 --> 02:02:03,640
Speaker 1: your theory and money, but I do think we've sort

2257
02:02:03,680 --> 02:02:08,520
Speaker 1: of we've been overserved. It's time to step away from

2258
02:02:08,560 --> 02:02:12,240
Speaker 1: the bar. It's time to put some restrictions here. We're

2259
02:02:12,280 --> 02:02:14,720
Speaker 1: not asking for super restrictions, but we've got to have

2260
02:02:14,800 --> 02:02:19,360
Speaker 1: some because what you know, the fact that crypto and

2261
02:02:19,480 --> 02:02:23,840
Speaker 1: Silicon Valley and AI have essentially hijacked Washington financially right now,

2262
02:02:24,120 --> 02:02:29,400
Speaker 1: and they have is it's unprecedented what we've seen. And

2263
02:02:30,160 --> 02:02:32,920
Speaker 1: the dirty little secret is every elected officials kind of

2264
02:02:32,960 --> 02:02:36,560
Speaker 1: grossed out by this, but nobody wants to offend the

2265
02:02:37,040 --> 02:02:41,440
Speaker 1: money people that support them. So that's why this system

2266
02:02:41,640 --> 02:02:45,280
Speaker 1: isn't getting fixed. I mean, I go back to Chuck

2267
02:02:45,320 --> 02:02:48,480
Speaker 1: Schumer telling a closed door meeting of Senate Democrats to

2268
02:02:48,800 --> 02:02:50,720
Speaker 1: suck it up and get on board crypto because the

2269
02:02:50,760 --> 02:02:53,960
Speaker 1: Fair Shake people had too much money to go up

2270
02:02:54,000 --> 02:03:01,080
Speaker 1: against essentially the Senate Democrats. It's been extorted by the

2271
02:03:01,120 --> 02:03:05,240
Speaker 1: crypto folks. Is that the system we had in mind,

2272
02:03:05,440 --> 02:03:07,280
Speaker 1: is that the system the founders had in mind. I

2273
02:03:07,320 --> 02:03:11,240
Speaker 1: don't think so. Next question comes from Jay in New York.

2274
02:03:11,400 --> 02:03:15,840
Speaker 1: Jay initial not Jay, and Jay asked at what point

2275
02:03:15,840 --> 02:03:18,360
Speaker 1: does a fundraising discrepancy between an incumbent and a challenger

2276
02:03:18,400 --> 02:03:20,800
Speaker 1: outweigh the partisan lean of a race. For example, Lauren

2277
02:03:20,800 --> 02:03:23,240
Speaker 1: Bobert's Colorado four district is R plus nine. Trump got

2278
02:03:23,240 --> 02:03:24,880
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of the vote, just beneath the fifty

2279
02:03:24,920 --> 02:03:27,640
Speaker 1: nine percent threshold you set. But in Q four, one

2280
02:03:27,680 --> 02:03:30,080
Speaker 1: democrat running against Bobert raised a staggering two million dollars

2281
02:03:30,120 --> 02:03:32,120
Speaker 1: compared to Bobert one hundred and seventy four thousand, and

2282
02:03:32,160 --> 02:03:33,920
Speaker 1: that democrat has two and a half million cash on

2283
02:03:33,960 --> 02:03:36,040
Speaker 1: hand compared to Bobert's two in a nineteen thousand cash

2284
02:03:36,080 --> 02:03:38,600
Speaker 1: on hand. Should Bobert be concerned about that much money?

2285
02:03:38,680 --> 02:03:41,720
Speaker 1: Or is her district truly too Republican? Look, I don't

2286
02:03:41,720 --> 02:03:45,920
Speaker 1: think it's Greeley. This is the sort of I think

2287
02:03:45,960 --> 02:03:49,040
Speaker 1: the old it's the old Wayne Allard's seat, That's what

2288
02:03:49,080 --> 02:03:51,879
Speaker 1: I remember it as. But it's like the Fourth Congression.

2289
02:03:51,880 --> 02:03:54,240
Speaker 1: The old fourth Congressional district up in Colorado was always

2290
02:03:54,280 --> 02:03:58,280
Speaker 1: sort of the conservative district that wasn't Colorado Springs. It

2291
02:03:58,360 --> 02:04:01,400
Speaker 1: was Greeley, it was always the center of it. I

2292
02:04:01,480 --> 02:04:04,280
Speaker 1: want to say Weld County I think was one of

2293
02:04:04,280 --> 02:04:06,560
Speaker 1: the heart of that. Fort Collins used to be a

2294
02:04:06,560 --> 02:04:08,240
Speaker 1: part of it. They've now moved Fort Collins out of

2295
02:04:08,240 --> 02:04:12,160
Speaker 1: it because I think Fort Collins became too liberal and

2296
02:04:12,240 --> 02:04:18,920
Speaker 1: it was diluting that district, making it more competitive. I

2297
02:04:18,920 --> 02:04:23,440
Speaker 1: think we've learned, right, you can have there. It really

2298
02:04:23,440 --> 02:04:27,760
Speaker 1: depends on the challenge of themselves, right, which is you

2299
02:04:27,920 --> 02:04:31,200
Speaker 1: have all the money in the world. We saw this

2300
02:04:31,320 --> 02:04:34,440
Speaker 1: in Jamie Harrison had more money than Lindsay Graham and

2301
02:04:34,440 --> 02:04:41,400
Speaker 1: South Carolina, but that wasn't going to be enough, and

2302
02:04:41,440 --> 02:04:45,960
Speaker 1: that that's about arguably about the same. Maybe South Carolina

2303
02:04:46,040 --> 02:04:48,720
Speaker 1: is slightly more Republican than the district you're describing here,

2304
02:04:49,600 --> 02:04:53,280
Speaker 1: so you know, this is kind of a you're you're

2305
02:04:53,400 --> 02:04:56,920
Speaker 1: pointing to about a ten to one cash advantage here.

2306
02:04:58,840 --> 02:05:00,480
Speaker 1: I think when you get to the twenty five to

2307
02:05:00,480 --> 02:05:03,960
Speaker 1: one with an incumbent member of Congress, because you're going

2308
02:05:04,000 --> 02:05:05,480
Speaker 1: to have outside groups that are going to come in

2309
02:05:05,520 --> 02:05:07,760
Speaker 1: for her. And that's the other part of this, right,

2310
02:05:07,800 --> 02:05:10,520
Speaker 1: A challenger might raise a bunch of money in a

2311
02:05:10,560 --> 02:05:13,400
Speaker 1: red leaning district, or a challenger might raise a bunch

2312
02:05:13,400 --> 02:05:15,640
Speaker 1: of money a blue Republican in a blue leaning district.

2313
02:05:15,920 --> 02:05:19,640
Speaker 1: But are the third party groups, the independent expenditure groups

2314
02:05:19,680 --> 02:05:22,120
Speaker 1: going to come in behind them and to spend money

2315
02:05:22,120 --> 02:05:23,720
Speaker 1: there or are they going to consider it a waste

2316
02:05:23,760 --> 02:05:27,000
Speaker 1: of money versus those that know that that seat is

2317
02:05:27,040 --> 02:05:29,200
Speaker 1: winnable on their side and they come in there. So

2318
02:05:29,720 --> 02:05:33,640
Speaker 1: where what happens is I'm sure Bobert just knows because

2319
02:05:33,640 --> 02:05:36,200
Speaker 1: she's had this before. Outside groups are going to come

2320
02:05:36,240 --> 02:05:41,880
Speaker 1: in and save her if necessary, and outside democratic groups

2321
02:05:41,920 --> 02:05:45,760
Speaker 1: are likely not to spend their money there. There instead,

2322
02:05:46,040 --> 02:05:48,200
Speaker 1: and that it's specific in Colorado, they're probably going to

2323
02:05:48,240 --> 02:05:50,680
Speaker 1: spend money. I think they think they can flip the

2324
02:05:51,600 --> 02:05:53,920
Speaker 1: third district on the other side of the Rockies. They

2325
02:05:53,920 --> 02:05:57,880
Speaker 1: think maybe they can flip the Colorado Springs district, So

2326
02:05:57,960 --> 02:06:00,800
Speaker 1: I think they're more likely to concentrate their sources elsewhere.

2327
02:06:00,880 --> 02:06:06,120
Speaker 1: So it is it is about whether your is your

2328
02:06:06,160 --> 02:06:10,480
Speaker 1: race competitive enough that the outside groups will engage, And

2329
02:06:10,600 --> 02:06:12,640
Speaker 1: in this case, I think that's why that isn't the case.

2330
02:06:12,640 --> 02:06:16,520
Speaker 1: But is there a rule of thumb? Like I said,

2331
02:06:16,560 --> 02:06:18,520
Speaker 1: that's a ten to one, and I wouldn't still view

2332
02:06:18,560 --> 02:06:22,160
Speaker 1: that as you know, look, in a bad year for Republicans,

2333
02:06:22,200 --> 02:06:27,040
Speaker 1: they're going to lose some seats that that are plus

2334
02:06:27,160 --> 02:06:30,000
Speaker 1: nine plus ten Trump maybe even lose a seat or

2335
02:06:30,040 --> 02:06:34,360
Speaker 1: two that is usually there's some other reason, right, a scandal,

2336
02:06:34,600 --> 02:06:39,360
Speaker 1: lazy candidate, bad candidate, something like that. Now Bobert is

2337
02:06:39,400 --> 02:06:42,560
Speaker 1: not the best candidate, right, she doesn't always you know,

2338
02:06:42,720 --> 02:06:46,440
Speaker 1: running come across as a conventional member of Congress, and

2339
02:06:46,480 --> 02:06:48,520
Speaker 1: she's already kind of a carpetbager. Right, it's not really

2340
02:06:48,520 --> 02:06:52,400
Speaker 1: from that area. She she shopped that district. So I

2341
02:06:52,440 --> 02:06:56,320
Speaker 1: think she's being a little lazy here because I don't

2342
02:06:56,360 --> 02:07:01,400
Speaker 1: know if she's as as a trenched in this district

2343
02:07:02,080 --> 02:07:04,640
Speaker 1: as she was, you know, and you remember she moved district,

2344
02:07:04,640 --> 02:07:07,680
Speaker 1: so she feared she was going to lose on that front.

2345
02:07:08,440 --> 02:07:10,720
Speaker 1: So I think that, you know, she probably has a false,

2346
02:07:10,840 --> 02:07:14,680
Speaker 1: a little false sense of security, but there's a reason

2347
02:07:14,720 --> 02:07:17,640
Speaker 1: she has that she feels that security. Next question comes

2348
02:07:17,640 --> 02:07:19,920
Speaker 1: from Andrew D goes, this is a little dark, a

2349
02:07:19,960 --> 02:07:24,680
Speaker 1: byproduct of reading too many Grisham novels. Okay, you're right,

2350
02:07:24,880 --> 02:07:27,160
Speaker 1: Grisham has gotten a little dark, and some of his

2351
02:07:27,240 --> 02:07:29,920
Speaker 1: more recent books anyway, He goes, what a right wing Magazella,

2352
02:07:30,040 --> 02:07:32,360
Speaker 1: or even more nefarious, someone in Trump's enter circle set

2353
02:07:32,360 --> 02:07:34,720
Speaker 1: off a catastrophic public bomb and claim it was an

2354
02:07:34,760 --> 02:07:37,800
Speaker 1: Iranian terror cell towards the end of summer, thus resulting

2355
02:07:37,800 --> 02:07:39,480
Speaker 1: in the government having an excuse to shut down the

2356
02:07:39,520 --> 02:07:41,920
Speaker 1: midterm elections. Putin got where he is today doing the

2357
02:07:41,920 --> 02:07:45,920
Speaker 1: same thing, same type of thing in Chechia. I feel

2358
02:07:45,960 --> 02:07:47,960
Speaker 1: getting this out ahead of time could ruin the surprise

2359
02:07:48,000 --> 02:07:49,680
Speaker 1: intent of the people. Thank you p S. Sunday's For

2360
02:07:49,720 --> 02:07:52,000
Speaker 1: eight years before my son went to college, was getting

2361
02:07:52,000 --> 02:07:54,160
Speaker 1: our breakfast cooked and ready so we could sit and

2362
02:07:54,160 --> 02:07:57,360
Speaker 1: watch me the press. Thanks for that routine, Andrew d Andrew,

2363
02:07:57,360 --> 02:08:00,520
Speaker 1: thanks for sharing that love. Love those father sons stories.

2364
02:08:02,840 --> 02:08:04,560
Speaker 1: Those are neat When I go to college campuses and

2365
02:08:04,560 --> 02:08:06,360
Speaker 1: people say they grew up watching me, and of course

2366
02:08:07,840 --> 02:08:09,360
Speaker 1: I know they mean it as a compliment. It only

2367
02:08:09,400 --> 02:08:12,960
Speaker 1: makes me feel old. But that's neither here or there. Look,

2368
02:08:13,000 --> 02:08:15,240
Speaker 1: I did a whole thing on the Reichstag fire a

2369
02:08:15,280 --> 02:08:18,080
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, which was an important moment for

2370
02:08:18,160 --> 02:08:26,320
Speaker 1: Hitler to essentially use the government against the people and

2371
02:08:26,440 --> 02:08:40,120
Speaker 1: to use government to acquire authoritarian legitimacy. So I have

2372
02:08:40,240 --> 02:08:46,960
Speaker 1: to say I I mean, you know, the end of succession.

2373
02:08:47,280 --> 02:08:50,240
Speaker 1: I'm starting the fire at the big central counting location

2374
02:08:50,320 --> 02:08:53,720
Speaker 1: in Milwaukee. Right, we've seen that one that would totally

2375
02:08:53,760 --> 02:08:56,880
Speaker 1: have been something you're like that scared the Jesus out

2376
02:08:56,880 --> 02:08:59,840
Speaker 1: of a lot of people, going, Hey, that seems super realistic.

2377
02:09:02,880 --> 02:09:06,120
Speaker 1: Welcome to distrust in America, right, I mean, you know

2378
02:09:06,160 --> 02:09:09,080
Speaker 1: what you're describing, You're right, is something that most Russians

2379
02:09:09,120 --> 02:09:15,520
Speaker 1: just believe is fact, that that's just how the world works.

2380
02:09:17,920 --> 02:09:22,000
Speaker 1: I just I here's why. I don't believe it's possible.

2381
02:09:22,120 --> 02:09:31,080
Speaker 1: I just think that those conspiracies never hold. They just don't.

2382
02:09:31,200 --> 02:09:34,960
Speaker 1: People break people people you know, you know, do not

2383
02:09:35,120 --> 02:09:38,680
Speaker 1: let that go. And I just don't think it's you know,

2384
02:09:38,720 --> 02:09:43,760
Speaker 1: it's it is. I don't think that stuff gets suppressed.

2385
02:09:43,800 --> 02:09:46,120
Speaker 1: I think if you're waiting for some bombshell that you

2386
02:09:46,160 --> 02:09:48,440
Speaker 1: think has never been reported, it's never been reported because

2387
02:09:48,480 --> 02:09:54,120
Speaker 1: there's no bombshell there and a lot of these conspiracies

2388
02:09:54,120 --> 02:09:57,760
Speaker 1: that can get us all sent down certain rabbit holes.

2389
02:09:59,200 --> 02:10:04,000
Speaker 1: But hey, look not you're not putting out I wish,

2390
02:10:04,040 --> 02:10:07,400
Speaker 1: I wish I would say you're being crazy, Andrew, all Right,

2391
02:10:07,520 --> 02:10:11,320
Speaker 1: I don't believe it'll be and I don't believe that

2392
02:10:12,960 --> 02:10:16,360
Speaker 1: even Trump has enough support to pull something like this

2393
02:10:16,480 --> 02:10:20,120
Speaker 1: off without it, well, you know, without it sort of

2394
02:10:21,240 --> 02:10:27,840
Speaker 1: somebody whistleblowing. But that's life in a democracy that ultimately

2395
02:10:27,880 --> 02:10:30,080
Speaker 1: I count on somebody being a whistleblower, that at the

2396
02:10:30,160 --> 02:10:33,040
Speaker 1: end of the day, somebody's conscience gets the best of them.

2397
02:10:33,040 --> 02:10:35,520
Speaker 1: And you know, I would you know, it's interesting. I

2398
02:10:35,880 --> 02:10:42,080
Speaker 1: saw the other day somebody dunking on. Somebody tweeted out

2399
02:10:42,280 --> 02:10:45,480
Speaker 1: a sort of regret on voting for Trump, and it

2400
02:10:45,560 --> 02:10:47,960
Speaker 1: was a long list. You know, I thought I was

2401
02:10:48,040 --> 02:10:53,800
Speaker 1: voting for this, this, and this, and I feel taken,

2402
02:10:53,920 --> 02:10:58,720
Speaker 1: and you know, I regret my vote. And somebody retweeted

2403
02:10:58,760 --> 02:11:01,600
Speaker 1: above it and all the responses were, well, you're the

2404
02:11:01,640 --> 02:11:03,240
Speaker 1: more and I can't believe you fell for it. And

2405
02:11:03,280 --> 02:11:04,800
Speaker 1: I just was wanting to send There was somebody else

2406
02:11:04,840 --> 02:11:07,840
Speaker 1: who was quote tweeting it and just saying, you know,

2407
02:11:07,880 --> 02:11:10,040
Speaker 1: you need to ask yourself why you were so ignorant

2408
02:11:11,120 --> 02:11:15,480
Speaker 1: and what I want to say to those folks. And

2409
02:11:15,520 --> 02:11:17,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if they listen to this podcast, because

2410
02:11:17,600 --> 02:11:20,440
Speaker 1: I'm not somebody who is a who just tells you

2411
02:11:20,480 --> 02:11:22,800
Speaker 1: what you want to hear. I just would never be

2412
02:11:22,840 --> 02:11:25,680
Speaker 1: able to do that. It's just not that's not who

2413
02:11:25,760 --> 02:11:28,160
Speaker 1: I am. So I'm not so. And I know that

2414
02:11:28,880 --> 02:11:32,600
Speaker 1: this may be saved for those partisan you know, those

2415
02:11:32,640 --> 02:11:34,800
Speaker 1: that you know are trying to save America, that claim

2416
02:11:34,800 --> 02:11:43,920
Speaker 1: they're saving America with their podcasts. Which is, everybody's got

2417
02:11:43,920 --> 02:11:47,280
Speaker 1: a line that Trump crosses, but everybody's line is in

2418
02:11:47,320 --> 02:11:51,840
Speaker 1: a different place. I said something to a family member

2419
02:11:52,160 --> 02:11:53,720
Speaker 1: early on in the Trump years, and I said, it

2420
02:11:53,760 --> 02:11:55,960
Speaker 1: be careful being overly critical of some of these folks.

2421
02:11:57,160 --> 02:11:59,600
Speaker 1: I said, somebody you don't like today is going to

2422
02:11:59,600 --> 02:12:03,000
Speaker 1: be the hero of this story. And the punchline is,

2423
02:12:03,080 --> 02:12:06,080
Speaker 1: you know, at that moment, little did anybody know that

2424
02:12:06,120 --> 02:12:09,960
Speaker 1: Liz Cheney would be a hero for protecting democracy to

2425
02:12:10,080 --> 02:12:13,760
Speaker 1: many on the left some three years later, and yet

2426
02:12:13,800 --> 02:12:16,880
Speaker 1: she was turned out. It was January sixth was the

2427
02:12:16,920 --> 02:12:22,840
Speaker 1: line for her. Everybody has a line. It is not

2428
02:12:22,960 --> 02:12:27,280
Speaker 1: in the same place we live. If you want to

2429
02:12:27,360 --> 02:12:30,440
Speaker 1: live in a thriving democracy, you need to accept the

2430
02:12:30,480 --> 02:12:34,400
Speaker 1: premise that we all don't agree, that we all may

2431
02:12:34,440 --> 02:12:36,920
Speaker 1: have ethics and morals, but they're not in alignment with

2432
02:12:36,960 --> 02:12:44,280
Speaker 1: each other's ethics and morals, and that we all have

2433
02:12:44,400 --> 02:12:47,240
Speaker 1: our we all have our no go zones. Right, we

2434
02:12:47,280 --> 02:12:53,800
Speaker 1: all have the line. If they crosses this line, I'm out.

2435
02:12:54,160 --> 02:12:58,400
Speaker 1: Welcome them, Welcome them to the bunker, don't lecture them

2436
02:12:58,440 --> 02:13:11,720
Speaker 1: for taking too long to get The next question comes

2437
02:13:11,720 --> 02:13:14,840
Speaker 1: from Amanda, and she writes, I had to stop what

2438
02:13:14,840 --> 02:13:17,000
Speaker 1: I was doing during your March second podcast because once

2439
02:13:17,000 --> 02:13:19,560
Speaker 1: again I found myself shouting, why don't you run for president?

2440
02:13:19,640 --> 02:13:22,080
Speaker 1: Mister Todd. The way you break down something as complex

2441
02:13:22,120 --> 02:13:24,360
Speaker 1: as the Iran assault with legal, historical, in fact driven

2442
02:13:24,400 --> 02:13:27,400
Speaker 1: clarity is exactly what this country needs. You are truly

2443
02:13:27,440 --> 02:13:29,600
Speaker 1: one of the last honest, fair and balanced voices in

2444
02:13:29,640 --> 02:13:31,360
Speaker 1: the media, and I often have to listen twice just

2445
02:13:31,400 --> 02:13:33,000
Speaker 1: to absorb it all. Thank you for doing what you do.

2446
02:13:33,480 --> 02:13:35,720
Speaker 1: Gives me hope in a time when I often feel

2447
02:13:35,720 --> 02:13:38,600
Speaker 1: like we're living through the fall of Rome. Well, Amanda,

2448
02:13:39,360 --> 02:13:41,280
Speaker 1: I wonder what people in Rome at the time. Did

2449
02:13:41,320 --> 02:13:42,840
Speaker 1: they know what was all coming to an end? Or

2450
02:13:42,840 --> 02:13:44,400
Speaker 1: do they all think, oh, no, we can fix this

2451
02:13:44,560 --> 02:13:46,960
Speaker 1: right where they're naive like me, No, no, no, we'll

2452
02:13:47,000 --> 02:13:51,280
Speaker 1: figure it out. Well, I think you just described the

2453
02:13:51,320 --> 02:13:53,800
Speaker 1: reason why someone like me will never get elected, right

2454
02:13:55,600 --> 02:13:58,440
Speaker 1: because you said fact driven clarity is exactly what this

2455
02:13:58,520 --> 02:14:03,520
Speaker 1: country needs. What president has successfully used fact driven clarity

2456
02:14:03,760 --> 02:14:10,840
Speaker 1: to to get a majority on their side. A sort

2457
02:14:10,840 --> 02:14:17,000
Speaker 1: of half kid. And the candidates that that scratch my

2458
02:14:17,040 --> 02:14:18,600
Speaker 1: itch are usually the ones that are at one or

2459
02:14:18,640 --> 02:14:22,680
Speaker 1: two percent. I remember, you know, I was one of

2460
02:14:22,680 --> 02:14:24,960
Speaker 1: the candidates that intrigued me the most on the Democratic

2461
02:14:25,040 --> 02:14:29,960
Speaker 1: side in twenty twenty. It was Michael Bennett, and I

2462
02:14:29,960 --> 02:14:33,440
Speaker 1: remember him at one debate he said the issue that

2463
02:14:33,520 --> 02:14:35,080
Speaker 1: I cared the most about. He says, if you elect

2464
02:14:35,120 --> 02:14:37,600
Speaker 1: me president, you might, I might, you might go three

2465
02:14:37,640 --> 02:14:40,360
Speaker 1: weeks without hearing from me. And I thought, yes, give

2466
02:14:40,400 --> 02:14:46,160
Speaker 1: me more of that. That resonated like a wet noodle. Right,

2467
02:14:49,280 --> 02:14:52,440
Speaker 1: But it's I appreciate you saying that. It's very kind

2468
02:14:52,480 --> 02:14:56,600
Speaker 1: of you, and I just I'll tell you why I've

2469
02:14:56,680 --> 02:15:00,680
Speaker 1: never even contemplated entering politics, because I think it would

2470
02:15:01,360 --> 02:15:05,720
Speaker 1: undermine elected office. I'll say this way. I always fear

2471
02:15:05,800 --> 02:15:08,400
Speaker 1: to underline my credibility on the media side, and not

2472
02:15:08,440 --> 02:15:12,600
Speaker 1: just mine, but other members of the media. You know,

2473
02:15:12,640 --> 02:15:14,320
Speaker 1: you play into the type that you know, you're an

2474
02:15:14,360 --> 02:15:17,160
Speaker 1: activist and all this stuff, and yet you know I'm

2475
02:15:17,200 --> 02:15:20,960
Speaker 1: a citizen too, and you're right, you know, so I

2476
02:15:21,120 --> 02:15:24,120
Speaker 1: you know, but I've decided to throw my efforts, my

2477
02:15:24,520 --> 02:15:30,840
Speaker 1: political efforts into restructuring the democracy, reforming, updating the infrastructure

2478
02:15:30,840 --> 02:15:33,400
Speaker 1: for the democracy. We need a couple of new constitutional amendments.

2479
02:15:33,400 --> 02:15:36,360
Speaker 1: It's pretty clear we need one on campaign money. It's

2480
02:15:36,400 --> 02:15:39,520
Speaker 1: pretty clear we need one on on some on some

2481
02:15:39,640 --> 02:15:42,120
Speaker 1: jerry mendering, and perhaps we need one just a simple

2482
02:15:42,200 --> 02:15:48,160
Speaker 1: right to vote aspect in the constitution itself. And you know,

2483
02:15:48,640 --> 02:15:52,320
Speaker 1: if I feel like that's the place I can contribute

2484
02:15:52,320 --> 02:15:56,880
Speaker 1: best is sadly, running for president is just simply it's

2485
02:15:56,880 --> 02:16:02,760
Speaker 1: like agreeing to like join the cast of Survivor, and

2486
02:16:02,880 --> 02:16:06,320
Speaker 1: that's just not something I've ever wanted to be a

2487
02:16:06,360 --> 02:16:10,680
Speaker 1: part of, if you get my drift. But clarity is

2488
02:16:10,720 --> 02:16:12,920
Speaker 1: my goal here. So the fact that you're getting clarity,

2489
02:16:13,040 --> 02:16:16,920
Speaker 1: I feel as if a mission as a president might

2490
02:16:16,920 --> 02:16:22,320
Speaker 1: say mission accomplished. All right. Last question comes from Jim

2491
02:16:22,360 --> 02:16:24,320
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, and he goes, hey, I've heard it said

2492
02:16:24,320 --> 02:16:26,480
Speaker 1: that the next president, regardless of whether they're a Republican

2493
02:16:26,560 --> 02:16:28,360
Speaker 1: or Democrat, may have difficulty doing a one Ady on

2494
02:16:28,400 --> 02:16:30,480
Speaker 1: tariff says this may be the new norm as a

2495
02:16:30,520 --> 02:16:32,400
Speaker 1: revenue stream. If that is the case, how does the

2496
02:16:32,400 --> 02:16:34,800
Speaker 1: country go about removing tariffs. How did we change course

2497
02:16:34,800 --> 02:16:37,440
Speaker 1: from the William McKinley days when he was pro tariff

2498
02:16:37,480 --> 02:16:39,600
Speaker 1: to the free trade that we've had most recently. Is

2499
02:16:39,600 --> 02:16:41,160
Speaker 1: it something that can be done like a band aid

2500
02:16:41,200 --> 02:16:43,840
Speaker 1: that's ripped off, or does it take multiple presidencies and

2501
02:16:43,879 --> 02:16:46,480
Speaker 1: the building of goodwill to develop free trade? Well, I

2502
02:16:46,480 --> 02:16:49,640
Speaker 1: think it's going to be you know, I think goodwill

2503
02:16:49,680 --> 02:16:52,000
Speaker 1: is going to be one issue, right, and we may

2504
02:16:52,000 --> 02:16:55,760
Speaker 1: have so many reciprocal tariffs that are impacting US. I

2505
02:16:55,800 --> 02:16:57,280
Speaker 1: don't think getting rid of the tariffs are going to

2506
02:16:57,280 --> 02:17:02,160
Speaker 1: be that difficult. I think, but what some people claim

2507
02:17:02,200 --> 02:17:04,560
Speaker 1: that will be difficult is giving how do you replace

2508
02:17:04,600 --> 02:17:09,879
Speaker 1: the revenue if it is bringing in so much revenue

2509
02:17:10,160 --> 02:17:14,840
Speaker 1: that it that if you get rid of it, then

2510
02:17:14,840 --> 02:17:17,360
Speaker 1: you have to find a way to replace the revenue. Now,

2511
02:17:17,360 --> 02:17:21,240
Speaker 1: I've always believed what Donald Trump was and what proponents

2512
02:17:21,240 --> 02:17:24,840
Speaker 1: of his tariff strategy were really hoping. Trump has said this,

2513
02:17:25,360 --> 02:17:28,440
Speaker 1: he wanted to get rid of the income tax. He

2514
02:17:28,480 --> 02:17:32,720
Speaker 1: wants to repeal the sixteenth Amendment. He wants to get

2515
02:17:32,800 --> 02:17:35,920
Speaker 1: rid of the income tax. Most rich people do. Rich

2516
02:17:35,959 --> 02:17:38,200
Speaker 1: people hated the income tax. The reason they put in

2517
02:17:38,560 --> 02:17:42,160
Speaker 1: we put in the income tax is because these industrialists

2518
02:17:42,240 --> 02:17:45,440
Speaker 1: were not paying their fair share, and the tariff system

2519
02:17:45,480 --> 02:17:48,640
Speaker 1: of taxation, which was the primary way the government raised money,

2520
02:17:50,280 --> 02:17:52,760
Speaker 1: made it so that essentially the working class and the

2521
02:17:52,800 --> 02:17:58,720
Speaker 1: working poor were actually paying more in taxes than the

2522
02:17:58,720 --> 02:18:02,760
Speaker 1: wealthy were. And so that's why we ended up with

2523
02:18:02,800 --> 02:18:05,359
Speaker 1: the income tax in the first place, and the property

2524
02:18:05,400 --> 02:18:09,000
Speaker 1: tax structure that we see some governors wanting to get

2525
02:18:09,080 --> 02:18:12,320
Speaker 1: rid of today, which if you get rid of that,

2526
02:18:12,360 --> 02:18:17,480
Speaker 1: all you're going to do is get rid of government

2527
02:18:17,520 --> 02:18:21,480
Speaker 1: services that a lot of people like and find yourself

2528
02:18:21,480 --> 02:18:24,960
Speaker 1: on the wrong end of a pitchfork, that I promise you.

2529
02:18:25,080 --> 02:18:32,279
Speaker 1: So it's the revenue, the potential for the lost revenue

2530
02:18:32,320 --> 02:18:34,000
Speaker 1: that I think has made some people think they'll be

2531
02:18:34,760 --> 02:18:36,920
Speaker 1: harder to get rid of, which is obviously what Trump

2532
02:18:36,959 --> 02:18:39,400
Speaker 1: is hoping to do. But terrif's not going to be

2533
02:18:39,440 --> 02:18:41,760
Speaker 1: hard to get rid of, not if you really want

2534
02:18:41,760 --> 02:18:45,640
Speaker 1: to do it. And it's but the problem and I

2535
02:18:45,680 --> 02:18:48,760
Speaker 1: think now it's pretty clear they're not very effective and

2536
02:18:48,840 --> 02:18:51,360
Speaker 1: they only seem to punish the American consumer, not the

2537
02:18:51,400 --> 02:18:57,320
Speaker 1: country we're intending to impact. All right, Well, that does

2538
02:18:57,360 --> 02:19:03,000
Speaker 1: it for questions? It is uh, it is perhaps the

2539
02:19:03,240 --> 02:19:08,039
Speaker 1: single greatest four day period for college basketball that there is.

2540
02:19:08,120 --> 02:19:12,240
Speaker 1: I know we're supposed to say the NCAA Tournament. It

2541
02:19:12,280 --> 02:19:15,680
Speaker 1: is amazing. I love the NCAA Tournament. And next weekend,

2542
02:19:16,400 --> 02:19:18,320
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it is going to be very

2543
02:19:18,320 --> 02:19:22,000
Speaker 1: difficult for me to be doing tapings and and paying attention.

2544
02:19:24,320 --> 02:19:28,840
Speaker 1: I have a TV within eyesight, within my eyeline here,

2545
02:19:29,360 --> 02:19:31,560
Speaker 1: I don't have it on. I am taping because right

2546
02:19:31,600 --> 02:19:35,360
Speaker 1: now what I love about this week and this weekend

2547
02:19:35,480 --> 02:19:38,800
Speaker 1: is there is basketball that starts at ten am Eastern time.

2548
02:19:38,800 --> 02:19:43,360
Speaker 1: And there's basketball that I was watching last night Wednesday

2549
02:19:43,440 --> 02:19:46,400
Speaker 1: night that is Eastern Washington, and I was watching that

2550
02:19:46,480 --> 02:19:49,560
Speaker 1: game and and uh and that was well past midnight,

2551
02:19:49,680 --> 02:19:55,680
Speaker 1: one o'clock. And every game means something, right, everybody's got

2552
02:19:55,680 --> 02:20:01,240
Speaker 1: their own little uh march madness. U right, it is.

2553
02:20:01,959 --> 02:20:06,680
Speaker 1: This is it's it's funny, and it's like every other sport.

2554
02:20:06,760 --> 02:20:09,400
Speaker 1: You know, college basketball has a regular season problem, although

2555
02:20:09,400 --> 02:20:11,800
Speaker 1: I think this year was one of the better regular seasons.

2556
02:20:12,240 --> 02:20:17,960
Speaker 1: And please more interconference scheduling in February that is fabulous.

2557
02:20:18,000 --> 02:20:20,120
Speaker 1: We had a lot of I mean that seeing Michigan

2558
02:20:20,120 --> 02:20:22,560
Speaker 1: and Duke play, you know, in a non conference game

2559
02:20:22,560 --> 02:20:24,760
Speaker 1: in the middle of so called conference season. In fact,

2560
02:20:24,800 --> 02:20:27,480
Speaker 1: I'd love to see a flip right, start the conference

2561
02:20:27,520 --> 02:20:31,720
Speaker 1: schedules earlier in November and December, go ahead, and the

2562
02:20:31,720 --> 02:20:35,440
Speaker 1: first matchups then, and you know those are on campus

2563
02:20:35,480 --> 02:20:37,720
Speaker 1: games and all that stuff, and then like have some

2564
02:20:37,760 --> 02:20:40,800
Speaker 1: bigger games to start showcasing. Because one of the things

2565
02:20:40,840 --> 02:20:43,200
Speaker 1: we're learning about college basketball, I think in the NIL

2566
02:20:43,240 --> 02:20:49,800
Speaker 1: era is basically, if you're under six', five you now

2567
02:20:49,840 --> 02:20:51,960
Speaker 1: are more likely to, play and no matter how great you,

2568
02:20:52,000 --> 02:20:54,760
Speaker 1: are you're more likely to play for all four years in.

2569
02:20:55,560 --> 02:20:58,640
Speaker 1: College one is it's just not a lot of appetite

2570
02:20:58,720 --> 02:21:03,080
Speaker 1: in THE nba for anybody on six.' five and then

2571
02:21:03,120 --> 02:21:05,600
Speaker 1: if you're obviously if you're a center that's six 's nine,

2572
02:21:05,680 --> 02:21:08,880
Speaker 1: or shorter Unless you're bam out of, bio right the

2573
02:21:09,520 --> 02:21:11,760
Speaker 1: shortest center. THERE is i mean talking about a guy

2574
02:21:11,760 --> 02:21:15,240
Speaker 1: who plays almost half a foot taller than he. Actually

2575
02:21:15,320 --> 02:21:19,360
Speaker 1: is i'm still just shocked by his eighty three, point,

2576
02:21:19,400 --> 02:21:25,000
Speaker 1: Game Right, kobe Bryant Not, luca RIGHT not i Mean.

2577
02:21:25,040 --> 02:21:27,120
Speaker 1: Not lebron like when you think who's number Two To,

2578
02:21:27,200 --> 02:21:30,160
Speaker 1: will right it's going to be such a such a

2579
02:21:30,200 --> 02:21:32,640
Speaker 1: great question in, thirty, Years right and people are, Gonna,

2580
02:21:32,640 --> 02:21:34,800
Speaker 1: guess wow maybe Was It magic? Johnson did he'd? Do

2581
02:21:34,879 --> 02:21:38,160
Speaker 1: It Did? Larry Bird And michael, Jordan Did, Turk Nowitzki

2582
02:21:38,280 --> 02:21:41,400
Speaker 1: tim duncan you start? GO through, i MEAN if i

2583
02:21:41,480 --> 02:21:46,119
Speaker 1: put together thirty names top names in THE, CURRENT nba

2584
02:21:47,000 --> 02:21:49,120
Speaker 1: i don't KNOW when i would GET. TO bam i

2585
02:21:49,120 --> 02:21:51,360
Speaker 1: don't know if i'd GET to bam as potential for

2586
02:21:51,400 --> 02:21:53,720
Speaker 1: having an eighty three. Point game but when you start

2587
02:21:53,760 --> 02:21:55,840
Speaker 1: the first quarter with thirty, one points, you know you

2588
02:21:55,920 --> 02:21:58,360
Speaker 1: gotta love it that they, just fed, you know found

2589
02:21:58,440 --> 02:22:02,959
Speaker 1: ways to keep feeding them and keep. Doing THAT but

2590
02:22:03,000 --> 02:22:05,320
Speaker 1: i digressed a. Little bit the point being IS that

2591
02:22:05,400 --> 02:22:09,760
Speaker 1: i think that we are this the top twenty five

2592
02:22:09,920 --> 02:22:12,560
Speaker 1: teams in. College basketball so this will be when it

2593
02:22:12,600 --> 02:22:15,000
Speaker 1: comes to the seeding when we see the Brackets, on

2594
02:22:15,080 --> 02:22:19,800
Speaker 1: sunday the ONE through i would put here the one through,

2595
02:22:19,840 --> 02:22:22,000
Speaker 1: five SEEDS and i might expand it to the. SIX

2596
02:22:22,040 --> 02:22:24,440
Speaker 1: seeds i do think this is such a top heavy

2597
02:22:24,480 --> 02:22:27,119
Speaker 1: year that there is nobody outside the top six seeds

2598
02:22:27,120 --> 02:22:30,440
Speaker 1: will be in a. FINAL four i do not think

2599
02:22:30,480 --> 02:22:32,520
Speaker 1: you'll see a seven or. HIGHER seed i think there

2600
02:22:32,560 --> 02:22:35,800
Speaker 1: is a. Huge gap, the gap THERE'S a i think

2601
02:22:35,840 --> 02:22:39,880
Speaker 1: there's there's sort, of like there's the there's eight teams

2602
02:22:40,320 --> 02:22:44,360
Speaker 1: that seem super elite and seem like and obviously four

2603
02:22:44,360 --> 02:22:45,640
Speaker 1: of them are going to at least four of aret

2604
02:22:45,640 --> 02:22:47,360
Speaker 1: going to Make the final four and. All that then

2605
02:22:47,400 --> 02:22:49,800
Speaker 1: you have sort of the next twelve who can beat

2606
02:22:49,840 --> 02:22:52,760
Speaker 1: those top eight teams on any. Given night the question

2607
02:22:52,920 --> 02:22:54,840
Speaker 1: is can they beat two of them in a row

2608
02:22:55,160 --> 02:22:57,520
Speaker 1: right to make it to the to an eight or

2609
02:22:57,560 --> 02:23:03,040
Speaker 1: a sixty or a. Final four but enjoy these games

2610
02:23:03,680 --> 02:23:07,680
Speaker 1: because we are getting its high quality of college basketball

2611
02:23:07,680 --> 02:23:11,400
Speaker 1: matchups than we've gotten since. THE eighties, i mean, YOU

2612
02:23:11,400 --> 02:23:13,960
Speaker 1: know i think back at those golden years Of The,

2613
02:23:13,959 --> 02:23:17,920
Speaker 1: big east when you had When The big east was the.

2614
02:23:17,959 --> 02:23:21,279
Speaker 1: Deepest conference one year they came really close to getting.

2615
02:23:21,320 --> 02:23:26,680
Speaker 1: All four, in Fact At, boston college who was In The.

2616
02:23:26,720 --> 02:23:29,600
Speaker 1: Big east Then At, BOSTON college i think not lost

2617
02:23:29,640 --> 02:23:33,920
Speaker 1: In the elite Eight. To memphis the final four that Featured,

2618
02:23:34,000 --> 02:23:37,560
Speaker 1: For Villanova saint John's and georgetown would have been An

2619
02:23:37,600 --> 02:23:39,959
Speaker 1: All Big east. Final Four, BUT memphis i think is

2620
02:23:39,959 --> 02:23:41,680
Speaker 1: the BACK then i think they were Known As. MEMPHIS

2621
02:23:41,720 --> 02:23:45,040
Speaker 1: state i think it Was The keith lee team broke

2622
02:23:45,120 --> 02:23:47,640
Speaker 1: through and it was three of. The four but the

2623
02:23:47,800 --> 02:23:51,840
Speaker 1: quality of college basketball in the mid eighties when everybody

2624
02:23:51,879 --> 02:23:53,640
Speaker 1: had to stay, three years three, or fourth so you'd

2625
02:23:53,640 --> 02:23:56,920
Speaker 1: have these incredibly sort of. Mature teams that was one version.

2626
02:23:56,959 --> 02:23:59,080
Speaker 1: Of it now IN the, Nil, era no you're not

2627
02:23:59,120 --> 02:24:02,440
Speaker 1: going to get maybe players growing up with, each other

2628
02:24:02,680 --> 02:24:06,360
Speaker 1: solidifying over. Multiple seasons but you do see a big

2629
02:24:06,360 --> 02:24:08,480
Speaker 1: difference between the beginning of the season and the end of.

2630
02:24:08,480 --> 02:24:10,520
Speaker 1: The Season right i'm watching it. Very closely IN. The

2631
02:24:10,560 --> 02:24:12,760
Speaker 1: acc the hottest team in THE a sec is not

2632
02:24:12,760 --> 02:24:16,960
Speaker 1: going to make. The Tournament It's. Florida State florida State since,

2633
02:24:17,400 --> 02:24:22,440
Speaker 1: february first has been fantastic and classic, new coach young

2634
02:24:22,560 --> 02:24:25,640
Speaker 1: team finally. Coming together they're the team no one wants

2635
02:24:25,640 --> 02:24:28,200
Speaker 1: to face in THE a. Sec Tournament RIGHT if i

2636
02:24:28,240 --> 02:24:30,760
Speaker 1: don't think they're going to win THE a, sec tournament

2637
02:24:30,760 --> 02:24:33,560
Speaker 1: but if if they make the semis or, the finals

2638
02:24:33,600 --> 02:24:36,440
Speaker 1: not going to. Be shocked they've just, been playing, you

2639
02:24:36,480 --> 02:24:38,600
Speaker 1: know they've they've quote figured. It out and that's what's

2640
02:24:38,680 --> 02:24:40,520
Speaker 1: kind of. Fun. About right you can get hot in

2641
02:24:40,520 --> 02:24:42,800
Speaker 1: a tournament and suddenly you can find yourself in in

2642
02:24:42,840 --> 02:24:46,840
Speaker 1: the biggest of the biggest. Of dances but enjoy. THESE matchups,

2643
02:24:46,879 --> 02:24:48,440
Speaker 1: I mean i just think we're we're going To have

2644
02:24:48,959 --> 02:24:52,600
Speaker 1: we're going to have as good Of an elite Eight and,

2645
02:24:52,720 --> 02:24:56,240
Speaker 1: sweet sixteen and these are going to be high. LEVEL matchups,

2646
02:24:58,040 --> 02:25:03,240
Speaker 1: i mean we are the the depth of this year's.

2647
02:25:03,240 --> 02:25:17,080
Speaker 1: COLLEGE basketball I, Mean, Florida, Yukon, Houston, Arizona Duke. Saint john's,

2648
02:25:18,040 --> 02:25:21,160
Speaker 1: YOU know, i look i'd love to SAY my I think.

2649
02:25:21,200 --> 02:25:24,960
Speaker 1: Miami is i'm Really hoping miami gets a. Sixth SEED My,

2650
02:25:25,080 --> 02:25:29,240
Speaker 1: gw colonials, You Know i'm i'd like to see them make.

2651
02:25:29,280 --> 02:25:31,160
Speaker 1: A splash i think they're kind of running out of,

2652
02:25:31,160 --> 02:25:38,760
Speaker 1: gas unfortunately but uh My Buddy chris capudo's had a.

2653
02:25:38,760 --> 02:25:41,880
Speaker 1: Great season we are, you know we're not going to get,

2654
02:25:41,879 --> 02:25:45,280
Speaker 1: twenty wins, but boy there there Are three there are

2655
02:25:45,280 --> 02:25:47,680
Speaker 1: three or four wins sitting in that lost column THAT that,

2656
02:25:47,840 --> 02:25:50,480
Speaker 1: i think, you know a bounce here or, bounce there

2657
02:25:50,640 --> 02:25:52,320
Speaker 1: and maybe we're a twenty one win team and maybe

2658
02:25:52,320 --> 02:25:55,560
Speaker 1: we're on the bubble on. That front and we came

2659
02:25:55,600 --> 02:25:57,400
Speaker 1: within three points of beating the one team of the

2660
02:25:57,440 --> 02:26:00,560
Speaker 1: eight ten that could make noise In The, interidet tournament

2661
02:26:00,560 --> 02:26:04,440
Speaker 1: and That's The Saint. LOUIS billigans i bet you didn't

2662
02:26:04,440 --> 02:26:06,800
Speaker 1: know That the atlantic ten stretched all the Way To,

2663
02:26:06,840 --> 02:26:10,560
Speaker 1: saint louis but it. Does Right The atlantic ocean eventually

2664
02:26:10,600 --> 02:26:13,840
Speaker 1: finds its way Into, the mississippi which is close Enough

2665
02:26:13,840 --> 02:26:19,200
Speaker 1: To Saint. Louis university but, ENJOY this, I know. I

2666
02:26:19,240 --> 02:26:22,600
Speaker 1: am this is an. Amazing weekend throw IN the WBC

2667
02:26:22,720 --> 02:26:25,240
Speaker 1: and nfl, free AGENCY and i am getting a little

2668
02:26:25,240 --> 02:26:27,880
Speaker 1: concerned about what my packers are. Up to a lot

2669
02:26:27,879 --> 02:26:34,120
Speaker 1: of offensive linemen leaving the building waiting for the replenishment. Of, supplies,

2670
02:26:34,160 --> 02:26:38,440
Speaker 1: here guys totally Understand The romeo, dobbs thing Understand the

2671
02:26:38,480 --> 02:26:43,120
Speaker 1: gary trade less less sort of bought in on what's

2672
02:26:43,120 --> 02:26:47,320
Speaker 1: happening on the. Offensive line getting very nervous here. About

2673
02:26:47,320 --> 02:26:49,879
Speaker 1: that what was, you know it's been, a strength so we.

2674
02:26:49,920 --> 02:26:52,520
Speaker 1: Shall see we've got a pretty deep, receiver room but

2675
02:26:52,600 --> 02:26:54,400
Speaker 1: we have no first round draft pick. This Year That's

2676
02:26:54,440 --> 02:27:00,720
Speaker 1: micah parsons that's sitting on the al. So concerned but the,

2677
02:27:00,760 --> 02:27:04,879
Speaker 1: point is if you're looking to get distracted, by sports

2678
02:27:05,480 --> 02:27:09,120
Speaker 1: this is an amazing weekend to distract yourself from the

2679
02:27:09,160 --> 02:27:12,360
Speaker 1: horrors of what we're dealing with at the moment to

2680
02:27:13,480 --> 02:27:17,000
Speaker 1: what is the euphoria and a lot of fun to

2681
02:27:17,120 --> 02:27:22,080
Speaker 1: watch and look these guys may, get paid they, deserve

2682
02:27:22,120 --> 02:27:25,680
Speaker 1: it and they still seem pretty excited. About it so enjoy,

2683
02:27:25,720 --> 02:27:28,160
Speaker 1: The weekend enjoy The games i'll see in seventy. Two

2684
02:27:28,160 --> 02:27:28,520
Speaker 1: hours