WEBVTT - And, This is Richard Haass 0:00:09.080 --> 0:00:16.600 This is Gavin Newsom, and this is Richard Haas. Richard, 0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:18.520 thank you so much for taking the time to come on, 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:23.840 particularly at a remarkable time in world history, particularly in 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:28.640 history unfolding in the Middle East. Today. President Trump seemed 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.360 to have a day that he's been looking forward to 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:34.360 for years and years and years, pushing NATO to move 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:37.760 from two percent to five percent. What was your takeaway 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:43.120 from this NATO summit, at least the first day, and 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:46.839 just Trump deserve I think a lot of praise and 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:48.400 for an accomplishment here. 0:00:49.760 --> 0:00:51.720 I would argue President Trump, well, first of all, got 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:54.800 being good to be with you. Thank you, Like I 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:59.440 would argue President Trump deserves credit for spurring the Europeans 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.160 to do they ought to have done years before, they 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:05.520 ought to be putting forward a larger share of the 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:07.759 effort for what's a common defense. 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:10.040 I was just as an aside. 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:12.160 I would say, much more important to me than whether 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:14.640 the Europeans spend three percent or two and a half 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:16.800 or four and a half is how they spend it. 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:19.480 And I'd actually say something you'd probably agree with. In 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:23.160 public policy, how you spend money is almost always more 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.959 important than how much you spend, and the problem with 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:28.399 European defense is not just that they spend too little, 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:32.360 but each country pretty much determines how it spends its 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.480 defense euros, so the whole ends up being less than 0:01:35.720 --> 0:01:38.160 the sum of its parts. So I would be pushing 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:39.959 if I were advising the president, I would say, yeah, 0:01:40.040 --> 0:01:43.720 push them to do more, but secondly, also push them 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:47.039 in a sense to become more European, rather than country 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:50.279 by country by country, which is the way they often 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:51.760 go about it. 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:53.320 But I think that part is good. 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:57.400 Less good is I think he's introduced some doubts into 0:01:57.480 --> 0:02:00.520 the reliability of the United States and when I call 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:05.640 the automatic quality of Article five, America's willingness to go 0:02:05.720 --> 0:02:09.160 to bat for Europe. And obviously there's also some fairly 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:13.160 significant differences about how to handle the most immediate threat, 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:17.320 which is Russia and the war in Ukraine. So I 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:19.520 think it's a mixed bag. But yes, it's good to 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:22.480 see the Europeans essentially getting pushed to do more. 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:25.760 And it's interesting just as you unpack and I appreciate 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:28.960 how you spend and where you spend. It was interesting 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:32.280 just looking at some of the details that their direct 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:35.480 spend in support of Ukraine would be considered as part 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:38.760 of that contribution as it relates to that breakdown of 0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:41.120 five percent. It was also, though interesting to see the 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:45.600 breakdown within the countries. Obviously Germany looking to move quicker 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:49.200 by twenty twenty nine with close to seventy percent increase 0:02:49.360 --> 0:02:53.760 in their domestic defense spending, and then Spain, who was 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:58.120 called out by the President today, looking not necessarily to 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:01.680 reach that numerica. Does that mean much to you or 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:03.720 is that just that's just noise? 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:08.959 The most interesting part of that is Germany less what 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:11.600 Germany is prepared to do in defense, though doing more 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:15.639 is welcome, but Germany has changed its laws and essentially 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:19.919 now is able to raise serious debt, which was something 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:22.880 that modern Germany had an allergy to because of the 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:26.320 whole Weimar experience, and the fact that Germany now can 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:29.320 really go into the markets and raise that gives them 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:33.679 far more capacity to potentially grow their economies as well 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:36.080 as to contribute to national security. 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:37.360 And then even go so. 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:39.360 Far as to say the most interesting figure in Europe 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:42.840 right now is the new Chancellor of Germany. And even 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:45.240 though he had a rough start and getting confirmed and 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:48.520 so forth by his parliament, I actually think the Chancellor 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:52.240 Mertz is in a position to in some ways have 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:56.440 Germany stake out the leadership position in Europe, something that 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:59.480 historically since World War Two Germany has been reticent to 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:02.480 do so. Would I would watch that space, particularly since 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:06.559 the French, the British and others are so gridlocked domestically. 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:09.120 I think Germany now occupies the critical position. 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.720 When you referenced the Article five sort of you know, 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:15.680 I think the president when he was flying over there 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:18.599 was some ambiguity once again sort of creating some doubt 0:04:18.839 --> 0:04:22.520 and anxiety. He seemed to shift tone a little bit 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:25.960 when he landed, But that is just that on again, 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:28.599 off again relationship to the Article five. Is that what 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:31.080 you're referring to as sort of a lack of certainty 0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:32.400 and confidence in the president? 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:33.159 Yeah. 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:36.240 For those who haven't read the NATO treaty recently, Article 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:39.640 five is the core of the agreement. We're essentially an 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:41.760 attack on one who is considered to be an attack 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:45.800 on all. Curiously, it's only been invoked once in NATO's 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.600 entire history, and that was on behalf of the United 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:54.120 States after nine to eleven. But alliances depend upon predictability 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:59.080 and reliability and dependability, and I would argue that President 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:02.880 Trump has introduced a significant degree of uncertainty into that, 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:06.840 which I think is counterproductive. He would argue, perhaps it 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:09.320 was necessary to get the Europeans to do more. I 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:11.760 would have said, well, probably there's better ways to do that, 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:15.960 but that's where we are, and to the extent Russia sensus, 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:19.640 there's uncertainty there putin who as we've seen in Ukraine, 0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:22.760 can be risk frunt it might be more likely to 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:24.800 take risks. So I always believe that the best way 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:28.719 to deter is through certainty. So your friends know you'll 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:30.840 be there for them, and just as important, your enemies 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.559 know you'll be there for your friends. So I would 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:36.400 like for President Trump, as the days and weeks and 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.960 months unfold, to look for opportunities to make clear that 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:42.960 whatever our differences are with Europe over their level of 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:46.080 defense effort, we see it as in our interest to 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:47.080 be there with them. 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:51.520 You're here. What in terms of the actual bombing itself, 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:55.680 and I think my most objective standards, it was a success. 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:59.600 Whether or not these sites were quote unquote obliterated, that's 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:03.479 a separate conversation, is that your assessment that this was 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:06.599 a success, that in the spirit of what you just 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:11.080 said around some certainty that the President wasn't bluffing in 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:14.520 terms of wanting to get diplomatic deal done. They appeared 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:16.880 not to want to move in that direction, so then 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:18.520 he asserted himself militarily. 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:20.279 I think it was the right thing to do. 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:23.760 For years, we've been playing this game with the Iranians 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:27.360 where they were enriching uranium far far, far beyond levels 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:30.640 anybody would need to generate electricity, so we all knew 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:32.640 what this was about to put into place. The were 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:38.960 prerequisites for a nuclear weapons program. I also understood we 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:42.479 couldn't allow Iron to get on the threshold, much less 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:45.000 have nuclear weapons. We made that mistake. I would argue 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:47.680 with North Korea, we don't want to have it now 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:49.360 in this part of the world, because if Aron ever 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.880 got nuclear weapons, not only would they act more aggressively 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:55.560 imposed potentially an existential threat to Israel. But you know, 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:58.520 and I know, the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Turks and 0:06:58.560 --> 0:07:01.320 others would follow suits. And the only thing worse than 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:03.680 the Middle East we've known is the Middle East I've 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:06.599 just described. So I think what Israel and then the 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:10.160 United States did was warrant it we'll see what the 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:14.280 results are. Whatever the Iran, whatever happened, the Iranian program 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:17.760 was not obliterated. Elements of their program I expect will 0:07:17.800 --> 0:07:21.400 have survived the attacks on the three sides. More important, 0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:24.320 I don't know. You don't know, probably the president doesn't 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:29.080 know what amount of uranium or number of centrifuges and 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:32.240 so forth are under some roof of some warehouse and 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:36.480 some other part of Iran. I actually think going forward, Devin, 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:39.200 we have got to assume just the opposite, that the 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:43.440 Iranian program was not obliterating, but elements of that program exist. 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:45.560 And what's worrisome to me, I'll be honest with you. 0:07:46.160 --> 0:07:49.240 I would think that a lot of Iranian leaders have said, Hey, 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:52.400 this never would have happened. Had we had nuclear weapons, 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:55.160 we could have deterred the Israelis in the Americas. So 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:58.880 I worry that going forward, I think their determination to 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:02.080 develop nuclear weapons might, if anything, be even greater. 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:04.360 Well, you know, I want to just pick up on 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:07.680 that point because that's interesting observation in an important one. 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:10.520 And we'll get to North Korea as well in a second. 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.560 Because your reference goes back to the opportunity the United 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:16.480 States had under the Clinton administration to take out their 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:19.800 program before it proliferated. But I want to talk a 0:08:19.800 --> 0:08:23.040 little bit about the Non Proliferation Treaty. People have brought 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:25.600 that up since the nineteen seventies. I think two hundred 0:08:25.600 --> 0:08:30.160 countries were signatories to that, including Iran. There were a 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:34.520 number of countries that have developed nuclear programs that were 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:39.640 not original signers to that. Obviously Korea and Israel and 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:43.280 the extent they have a nuclear program quote unquote, but 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:47.640 certainly India and Pakistan. But those countries as a consequence, 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:50.320 would make the claim you just made that they've been 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:55.120 they've had that deterrent. Now Iran assumed that they would 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:58.480 not be bombed, I presume under the terms of the 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:02.400 Non Proliferation Treaty. Does that put at risk the entire 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:04.280 notion of the non Proliferation Treaty? 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:07.040 What's just occurred, So let me give you a slightly 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:08.320 convoluted answer. 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:12.480 The Non Proliferation Treaty is only a small piece of 0:09:12.520 --> 0:09:15.880 the effort against non proliferation. I don't think it's a 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:18.760 wildly successful piece in many ways because it really is 0:09:18.800 --> 0:09:22.760 a gentleman's agreement. We declare what facilities we're doing, certain 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:26.359 types of research or engineering in and then the inspectors 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:29.400 come look at them. The inspectors can't look at places that. 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:30.120 Are not known. 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.440 So the entire treaty in that sense is based upon 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:36.400 a degree of faith that I tend. 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:36.600 Not to have. 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.040 North Korea withdrew from the treaty and there was no 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:44.280 particular penalty or anything for them having done so. Turns 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:47.000 out the most important non proliferation tool out there is 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:51.040 not the Treaty. It's called America's alliances. By giving countries 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:53.240 the confidence that we are there for them, they then 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:56.800 don't need to become self sufficient, and the biggest way 0:09:56.880 --> 0:09:59.240 to accelerate proliferation will be, for example, of the South 0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:02.120 Koreans or other has come to have doubts about their 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.000 relationships with US. So don't get me wrong, I'm not 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:07.920 saying the Non Proliferation Treaty doesn't have some utility, and 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:12.320 I think in particular the inspection provisions can be useful, 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:17.240 but we shouldn't exaggerate it's impact that Iran I would 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:19.560 think was going to do and is going to do 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:23.640 and what it wants regardless of its obligations under. 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.160 This treat So back to what you were saying, I mean, 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:31.160 so just let's speculate what goes happens going forward. Obviously, 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:34.120 this notion of resim change, people sort of pull back 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:36.840 a little bit, or least it appears the President's pulled back. 0:10:36.880 --> 0:10:39.680 I don't know if BB is pulled back on the 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:43.360 notion of regime change. But what won't change is their pursuit, 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:47.120 presumably of a nuclear weapon. As you note, we don't 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.679 know that the program was quote unquote obliterated. Even if 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:52.160 the physical sites may have been, we don't know where 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:57.600 this enriched uranium is and centrifugius you imagine. Now your 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:01.240 concern is now what that they accelerate that program with 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:05.240 the darkness, meaning without any international inspectors. 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:06.640 That's my concern. 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:08.719 It might not be their immedia priority, which I think 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.480 is to shore up the regime. But at some point 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:15.800 I do think reconstituting a program will become a priority, 0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:18.320 which means, by the way, the day may come where 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:22.280 Israeli United States needs to once again use military force 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:26.000 if we discover some activity going on in the Iranians 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:30.640 won't voluntarily give it up. It's not normal that problems 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:32.880 get solved. When I was the head of the Council, 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:35.920 on Foreign Relations. I used to discourage the Fellows from 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:40.120 using the words solved or solution, because that's just the 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:42.800 way history works. So I don't believe whatever it is 0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:46.880 we accomplished the other day, however much we accomplished, it 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:49.200 didn't solve the problem. It may have reduced it. It 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:51.840 may have set back the Iranian program, but that'll pop 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.959 up again. It's by the way you mentioned regime change. 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:57.120 It's one of the reasons that people, I think are 0:11:57.160 --> 0:12:01.280 attracted to the idea. If you can't solve the Iranian 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:05.480 problem through military force or through diplomacy, then people say, 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:08.120 what's left, Well, let's get a benign government. And I 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:10.800 think that's why there's so much interest in regime change. 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:13.040 The problem is it's easier to talk about it than 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:16.520 bring it about. I don't see the prerequisites in place 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:20.200 for it, and in any case, you can't base. 0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:20.959 Your policy on it. 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:23.480 People don't like it when I say this, but it's 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.240 a wish more than a strategy. If it were to happen. 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:30.320 I think it brings problems but obvious benefits with it. 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.439 But we just can't count on it, and no president 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:37.040 can give the order to say Secretary of Defense or 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.920 state and say, get me regime change in Iran. 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:44.280 They wouldn't have then the tools to necessarily. 0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:48.319 Carry it out when it comes to just issues of trust. 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:50.760 And you know, I think one of the questions that 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:52.679 I get and I ask myself all the time, I 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:54.960 feel like, for most of my adult life, I've been 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.600 hearing baby Net and Yaho say they're just months away, 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:03.880 a year away from having weapons grade nuclear weapons, and 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:06.240 you know, a certain point you just stopped believing it. 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:10.280 But your assessment, you know, your own objective assessment this 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:14.120 time did appear to be different, that they were getting 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:17.640 closer and actually appeared to be within a matter of 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:21.679 months in a position where potentially we had a weapons 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:25.000 grade weapon coming out of Iran? Is that accurate? 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.720 Pretty much? Look, this was a gathering threat. It wasn't 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.280 an imminent threat. It was a gathering threat. And the 0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:34.040 question is how close Now we know they had done 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:35.960 most of the enrichment work they need to do to 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:39.120 get it uranium enriched a plus or minus sixty percent, 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:42.080 that's not just sixty percent of the effort, that's actually 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:45.480 closer to ninety percent of the effort. For reasons of physics, 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:48.440 that I couldn't explain because I don't understand them well enough. 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:52.360 But I think I'm right there. Now. What you don't 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.439 know is how close they were on some of the 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:54.920 other things. 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.080 The actual fabrication of explosive device is the bomb, and 0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:01.160 so forth. And there there was the Israelis, believe the 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:05.040 economists published some very interesting stuff about it, that they 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:08.200 had made some breakthroughs, they had had some secret programs 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:11.600 and so forth. And I think we have to be tolerant, 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:16.320 just like after nine to eleven we were less willing 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:20.000 to run certain risks, say about what Iraq could do. 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:22.240 And this is not a justification for the Iraq war. 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.920 I was against it, but just I understand some of 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:30.000 the thinking. I think Israel after October seventh had less 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:32.880 tolerance of running certain risks in their case. So I 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:35.680 just think the combination of a change mentality in Israel, 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:41.120 the evisceration of groups like Hisbella, which couldn't really attack 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:46.040 Israel anymore, and this new intelligence would suggested, however, far 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:49.160 along the Iranians, for they were farther along. And I 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:53.400 think for all those reasons, the Israelis decided to act 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:54.680 and we came in behind. 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:58.640 Does this keep BB in power for another extended period 0:14:58.680 --> 0:14:58.960 of time. 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:02.640 We roughly what sixteen seventeen months to run before he 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:04.800 has to. I think the elections are scheduled for October 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:07.920 of next year. It certainly helps them. Mean Israel, as 0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:11.440 you know, is deeply divided about issues on democracy, Gaza, 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:15.680 what have you, whether the religious can be drafted and 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:20.120 so forth. They are not divided on Iran, left and right, 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:22.440 hawk and dove. There aren't a lot of doves in 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:25.640 Israel when it comes to rod. So it clearly helps BB. 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:29.680 It changes the conversation a little bit, It brings Israel together. 0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:32.400 It's seen as an accomplishment, and he has He has 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:38.520 changed in many ways israel strategic reality given the change 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.480 in Syria is volah, the weakening of a masque. Whatever 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.840 you think, however critical people watching this might be of 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:47.040 what Israel's done and how it's done it in Gaza, 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:50.040 the reality is that BB nets and Yahou in the 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:54.480 last what eighteen months, has dramatically reduced the external threat 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:54.920 to Israel. 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:04.240 And on that basis, are you confident that we'll have 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:07.400 sort of a you know, Abraham Accord two point zero 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:11.960 with Saudi coming in? Is that the map that you 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:14.840 see changing or is that still opening end in question 0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:17.840 with the everything that's going on or not going on 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:21.080 in Gaza, West Bank, et cetera. What's your over under 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:22.080 on that look? 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:24.040 As you know, for a while it looked like it 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:27.440 was going to happen before October seventh, and then because 0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:30.880 of if you were October eighth and Israeli policy, the 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:34.320 Saudis backed off. They got nervous or uneasy about it. 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.640 Two things may have changed now, though, which is interesting. 0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:40.560 One is beaving that Tan Yahoo. As you were just suggesting, 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.320 Gavin politically is stronger than he was, so he might 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:46.920 give him more leverage against those in his government who 0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:49.600 oppose any sort of change in policy on Gaza. 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:51.800 Secondly, there's this guy named Donald Trump. 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:56.600 It's interesting on how many occasions Trump has distanced himself 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:59.200 from beving that Ta Nyahoo. He did it on the huties, 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:03.480 he did it on the prisoner move with Hamas he 0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:05.680 told the Israelis a few weeks ago, don't you dare 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:09.639 attack around. We're trying to see if diplomacy works. Just 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.240 the other day, shall we say, I'm rather colorful language. 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:19.199 He was out there. So it's possible that tomorrow he 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:21.520 would tell the israel Is, hey, knock it off in 0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:25.320 Gaza or do this on the West Bank. There's an 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:31.560 unsentimental quality to America firstism. And one of the things 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:34.920 you see, we've beganned the conversation talking about Europe. Well, 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:37.479 one of the things, whether we're talking about security or 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.480 tariffs or now this being an ally of the United 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:42.400 States ain't when it used to be. When it comes 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:46.240 to Donald Trump, friends and allies no longer get preferred treatment. 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:50.399 So it wouldn't shock me if Donald Trump, in his 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:52.800 hope to get the Saut East to normalize with Israel, 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:55.639 put real pressure on bb Nets and Yao and we 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:58.520 put the Israelis in a real jam. Trump is popular 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.760 in Israel. And also it's almost like Nixon going to China. 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:03.840 Nixon Wan said, you know, they didn't have Nixon to 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:06.840 worry about. Well, you can't do an end run around 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.760 Donald Trump. So if Donald Trump leans on vving Netshanyahu, 0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:12.520 who are the Israelis going to appeal to in American 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:15.800 domestic politics. So I actually, I actually think that's a 0:18:15.880 --> 0:18:18.600 curious possibility that something could happen there. 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:23.280 Do you find him under the influence And I say, 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:28.720 that loosely, I mean because of his own financial relationships 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.960 to the UAE and guitar and the Saudi's sort of 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:34.640 the Arab I mean, do you think they will play 0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.360 an outsize role in influencing Trump in that respect? 0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:41.200 Look, if they had, you probably would have gone ahead 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:43.679 and done the strike. As much as they wanted around 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:45.960 cut down to size. They were very nervous that they 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:48.720 were going to be in the line of fire of retaliation. 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:51.800 So my guess is there an influence but not a 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:53.760 determinant of what he does. 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:55.600 And I say that in no way how would I 0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:55.920 put it. 0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:59.320 I'm not comfortable with, shall we say, this merging of 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:02.959 the personal the government when it comes to wealth creation 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:06.160 or you know, the fact that people don't refuse themselves 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:09.680 from things, or they carry on private sector activity. I'm 0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:12.040 as uncomfortable as I expect you are, or a lot 0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:14.159 of people watching that, But I don't think they have. 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.080 I haven't seen that they have undoing. I haven't seen it. 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:21.320 Over is, you've written a lot about doctrines. You talk 0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:23.840 about the Monroe doctrine. I think eighteen twenty three you've 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:27.320 sort of walked us through the Truman doctrine and aspects 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:31.160 of of not only Reagan, but even the freedom doctrine 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:34.639 as you refer to it under the Bush administration dealing 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:37.480 with terrorism, no place to hide? What do you have 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:40.840 any sense of what the hell that Trump doctrine is? Or, 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:42.760 I mean, Jade Vance tried to sert one in a 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:48.119 speech yesterday. What America first? What is it? What's your sense? 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:50.560 It's a good question. I think about it a lot. 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:54.480 Well, it might be earlier, it's still early, particularly in 0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:56.720 the second term, and the second term is a hell 0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:59.359 of a lot more than a continuation of the first term. 0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:00.920 You may love that, you may hate it, but it 0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:03.960 ain't Trump two point zero is more than an extension 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:06.679 of Trump one point Oh. There is something with this 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:12.400 America first ism that our alliances aren't as predictable, our 0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:15.000 enemies aren't aren't seen as enemies. There's a kind of 0:20:15.480 --> 0:20:20.400 perpetual maneuver in American foreign policies. I'm not quite sure 0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:23.600 if that adds to a doctrine. In some ways, doctrines 0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:26.880 lead you to predictable outcomes. In a funny sort of way, 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:31.359 Trump America first ism at times leads you to unpredictable outcomes. 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:35.360 It's not isolationist, though I would say it's quite unilateral, 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:38.399 you know, as we saw the the other day. I 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:40.840 also wrote a few weeks ago that there is something 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.320 of a doctrine. It's the opposite of the freedom doctrine, 0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:45.520 where under people like George W. 0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:47.560 Bush or even Reagan. 0:20:47.280 --> 0:20:50.840 Or Carter, we cared an awful lot about how governments 0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:54.040 treated their own people. This is just the opposite. This 0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:56.359 is all look the other way foreign policy. What you 0:20:56.400 --> 0:20:59.240 do inside your boards is your business. All we care 0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:03.880 about is that our business. So there's almost amoral quality 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:07.719 to Trump be in foreign policy. And again, doctrines have 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:10.200 to explain and predict. So I'm not quite sure yet 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:12.840 we have anything that quite rises to that level. 0:21:13.359 --> 0:21:16.240 Interesting. I mean, the only thing that would that would 0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.640 contradict that modestly was JD Vance's speech in Munich where 0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:22.480 he's lecturing the Europeans one hundred percent. 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:25.360 You're right to point out that contradiction. It's the one 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:28.399 area where it's almost like there's an equation of elite 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:34.120 Ivy League universities with elite Europe. And that's the one 0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:40.439 place where the administration is willing to tackle internal situations 0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:42.760 or circumstances in foreign countries. 0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:44.960