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Speaker 1: This is Gavin Newsom, and this is Richard Haas. Richard,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for taking the time to come on,

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Speaker 1: particularly at a remarkable time in world history, particularly in

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Speaker 1: history unfolding in the Middle East. Today. President Trump seemed

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Speaker 1: to have a day that he's been looking forward to

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Speaker 1: for years and years and years, pushing NATO to move

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Speaker 1: from two percent to five percent. What was your takeaway

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Speaker 1: from this NATO summit, at least the first day, and

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Speaker 1: just Trump deserve I think a lot of praise and

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Speaker 1: for an accomplishment here.

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Speaker 2: I would argue President Trump, well, first of all, got

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Speaker 2: being good to be with you. Thank you, Like I

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Speaker 2: would argue President Trump deserves credit for spurring the Europeans

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Speaker 2: to do they ought to have done years before, they

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Speaker 2: ought to be putting forward a larger share of the

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Speaker 2: effort for what's a common defense.

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Speaker 3: I was just as an aside.

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Speaker 2: I would say, much more important to me than whether

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Speaker 2: the Europeans spend three percent or two and a half

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Speaker 2: or four and a half is how they spend it.

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Speaker 2: And I'd actually say something you'd probably agree with. In

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Speaker 2: public policy, how you spend money is almost always more

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Speaker 2: important than how much you spend, and the problem with

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Speaker 2: European defense is not just that they spend too little,

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Speaker 2: but each country pretty much determines how it spends its

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Speaker 2: defense euros, so the whole ends up being less than

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Speaker 2: the sum of its parts. So I would be pushing

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Speaker 2: if I were advising the president, I would say, yeah,

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Speaker 2: push them to do more, but secondly, also push them

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Speaker 2: in a sense to become more European, rather than country

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Speaker 2: by country by country, which is the way they often

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Speaker 2: go about it.

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Speaker 3: But I think that part is good.

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Speaker 2: Less good is I think he's introduced some doubts into

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Speaker 2: the reliability of the United States and when I call

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Speaker 2: the automatic quality of Article five, America's willingness to go

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Speaker 2: to bat for Europe. And obviously there's also some fairly

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Speaker 2: significant differences about how to handle the most immediate threat,

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Speaker 2: which is Russia and the war in Ukraine. So I

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Speaker 2: think it's a mixed bag. But yes, it's good to

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Speaker 2: see the Europeans essentially getting pushed to do more.

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Speaker 1: And it's interesting just as you unpack and I appreciate

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Speaker 1: how you spend and where you spend. It was interesting

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Speaker 1: just looking at some of the details that their direct

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Speaker 1: spend in support of Ukraine would be considered as part

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Speaker 1: of that contribution as it relates to that breakdown of

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Speaker 1: five percent. It was also, though interesting to see the

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Speaker 1: breakdown within the countries. Obviously Germany looking to move quicker

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Speaker 1: by twenty twenty nine with close to seventy percent increase

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Speaker 1: in their domestic defense spending, and then Spain, who was

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Speaker 1: called out by the President today, looking not necessarily to

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Speaker 1: reach that numerica. Does that mean much to you or

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Speaker 1: is that just that's just noise?

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Speaker 2: The most interesting part of that is Germany less what

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Speaker 2: Germany is prepared to do in defense, though doing more

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Speaker 2: is welcome, but Germany has changed its laws and essentially

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Speaker 2: now is able to raise serious debt, which was something

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Speaker 2: that modern Germany had an allergy to because of the

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Speaker 2: whole Weimar experience, and the fact that Germany now can

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Speaker 2: really go into the markets and raise that gives them

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Speaker 2: far more capacity to potentially grow their economies as well

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Speaker 2: as to contribute to national security.

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Speaker 3: And then even go so.

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Speaker 2: Far as to say the most interesting figure in Europe

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Speaker 2: right now is the new Chancellor of Germany. And even

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Speaker 2: though he had a rough start and getting confirmed and

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Speaker 2: so forth by his parliament, I actually think the Chancellor

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Speaker 2: Mertz is in a position to in some ways have

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Speaker 2: Germany stake out the leadership position in Europe, something that

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Speaker 2: historically since World War Two Germany has been reticent to

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Speaker 2: do so. Would I would watch that space, particularly since

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Speaker 2: the French, the British and others are so gridlocked domestically.

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Speaker 2: I think Germany now occupies the critical position.

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Speaker 1: When you referenced the Article five sort of you know,

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Speaker 1: I think the president when he was flying over there

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Speaker 1: was some ambiguity once again sort of creating some doubt

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Speaker 1: and anxiety. He seemed to shift tone a little bit

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Speaker 1: when he landed, But that is just that on again,

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Speaker 1: off again relationship to the Article five. Is that what

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Speaker 1: you're referring to as sort of a lack of certainty

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Speaker 1: and confidence in the president?

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: For those who haven't read the NATO treaty recently, Article

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Speaker 2: five is the core of the agreement. We're essentially an

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Speaker 2: attack on one who is considered to be an attack

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Speaker 2: on all. Curiously, it's only been invoked once in NATO's

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Speaker 2: entire history, and that was on behalf of the United

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Speaker 2: States after nine to eleven. But alliances depend upon predictability

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Speaker 2: and reliability and dependability, and I would argue that President

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Speaker 2: Trump has introduced a significant degree of uncertainty into that,

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Speaker 2: which I think is counterproductive. He would argue, perhaps it

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Speaker 2: was necessary to get the Europeans to do more. I

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Speaker 2: would have said, well, probably there's better ways to do that,

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Speaker 2: but that's where we are, and to the extent Russia sensus,

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Speaker 2: there's uncertainty there putin who as we've seen in Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: can be risk frunt it might be more likely to

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Speaker 2: take risks. So I always believe that the best way

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Speaker 2: to deter is through certainty. So your friends know you'll

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Speaker 2: be there for them, and just as important, your enemies

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Speaker 2: know you'll be there for your friends. So I would

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Speaker 2: like for President Trump, as the days and weeks and

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Speaker 2: months unfold, to look for opportunities to make clear that

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Speaker 2: whatever our differences are with Europe over their level of

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Speaker 2: defense effort, we see it as in our interest to

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Speaker 2: be there with them.

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Speaker 1: You're here. What in terms of the actual bombing itself,

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Speaker 1: and I think my most objective standards, it was a success.

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Speaker 1: Whether or not these sites were quote unquote obliterated, that's

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Speaker 1: a separate conversation, is that your assessment that this was

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Speaker 1: a success, that in the spirit of what you just

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Speaker 1: said around some certainty that the President wasn't bluffing in

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Speaker 1: terms of wanting to get diplomatic deal done. They appeared

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Speaker 1: not to want to move in that direction, so then

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Speaker 1: he asserted himself militarily.

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Speaker 3: I think it was the right thing to do.

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Speaker 2: For years, we've been playing this game with the Iranians

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Speaker 2: where they were enriching uranium far far, far beyond levels

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Speaker 2: anybody would need to generate electricity, so we all knew

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Speaker 2: what this was about to put into place. The were

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Speaker 2: prerequisites for a nuclear weapons program. I also understood we

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Speaker 2: couldn't allow Iron to get on the threshold, much less

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Speaker 2: have nuclear weapons. We made that mistake. I would argue

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Speaker 2: with North Korea, we don't want to have it now

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Speaker 2: in this part of the world, because if Aron ever

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Speaker 2: got nuclear weapons, not only would they act more aggressively

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Speaker 2: imposed potentially an existential threat to Israel. But you know,

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Speaker 2: and I know, the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Turks and

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Speaker 2: others would follow suits. And the only thing worse than

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Speaker 2: the Middle East we've known is the Middle East I've

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Speaker 2: just described. So I think what Israel and then the

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Speaker 2: United States did was warrant it we'll see what the

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Speaker 2: results are. Whatever the Iran, whatever happened, the Iranian program

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Speaker 2: was not obliterated. Elements of their program I expect will

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Speaker 2: have survived the attacks on the three sides. More important,

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Speaker 2: I don't know. You don't know, probably the president doesn't

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Speaker 2: know what amount of uranium or number of centrifuges and

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Speaker 2: so forth are under some roof of some warehouse and

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Speaker 2: some other part of Iran. I actually think going forward, Devin,

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Speaker 2: we have got to assume just the opposite, that the

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Speaker 2: Iranian program was not obliterating, but elements of that program exist.

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Speaker 3: And what's worrisome to me, I'll be honest with you.

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Speaker 2: I would think that a lot of Iranian leaders have said, Hey,

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Speaker 2: this never would have happened. Had we had nuclear weapons,

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Speaker 2: we could have deterred the Israelis in the Americas. So

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Speaker 2: I worry that going forward, I think their determination to

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Speaker 2: develop nuclear weapons might, if anything, be even greater.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know, I want to just pick up on

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Speaker 1: that point because that's interesting observation in an important one.

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Speaker 1: And we'll get to North Korea as well in a second.

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Speaker 1: Because your reference goes back to the opportunity the United

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Speaker 1: States had under the Clinton administration to take out their

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Speaker 1: program before it proliferated. But I want to talk a

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Speaker 1: little bit about the Non Proliferation Treaty. People have brought

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Speaker 1: that up since the nineteen seventies. I think two hundred

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Speaker 1: countries were signatories to that, including Iran. There were a

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Speaker 1: number of countries that have developed nuclear programs that were

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Speaker 1: not original signers to that. Obviously Korea and Israel and

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Speaker 1: the extent they have a nuclear program quote unquote, but

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Speaker 1: certainly India and Pakistan. But those countries as a consequence,

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Speaker 1: would make the claim you just made that they've been

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Speaker 1: they've had that deterrent. Now Iran assumed that they would

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Speaker 1: not be bombed, I presume under the terms of the

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Speaker 1: Non Proliferation Treaty. Does that put at risk the entire

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Speaker 1: notion of the non Proliferation Treaty?

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Speaker 3: What's just occurred, So let me give you a slightly

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Speaker 3: convoluted answer.

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Speaker 2: The Non Proliferation Treaty is only a small piece of

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Speaker 2: the effort against non proliferation. I don't think it's a

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Speaker 2: wildly successful piece in many ways because it really is

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Speaker 2: a gentleman's agreement. We declare what facilities we're doing, certain

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Speaker 2: types of research or engineering in and then the inspectors

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Speaker 2: come look at them. The inspectors can't look at places that.

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Speaker 3: Are not known.

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Speaker 2: So the entire treaty in that sense is based upon

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Speaker 2: a degree of faith that I tend.

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Speaker 3: Not to have.

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Speaker 2: North Korea withdrew from the treaty and there was no

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Speaker 2: particular penalty or anything for them having done so. Turns

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Speaker 2: out the most important non proliferation tool out there is

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Speaker 2: not the Treaty. It's called America's alliances. By giving countries

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Speaker 2: the confidence that we are there for them, they then

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Speaker 2: don't need to become self sufficient, and the biggest way

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Speaker 2: to accelerate proliferation will be, for example, of the South

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Speaker 2: Koreans or other has come to have doubts about their

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Speaker 2: relationships with US. So don't get me wrong, I'm not

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Speaker 2: saying the Non Proliferation Treaty doesn't have some utility, and

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Speaker 2: I think in particular the inspection provisions can be useful,

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Speaker 2: but we shouldn't exaggerate it's impact that Iran I would

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Speaker 2: think was going to do and is going to do

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Speaker 2: and what it wants regardless of its obligations under.

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Speaker 1: This treat So back to what you were saying, I mean,

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Speaker 1: so just let's speculate what goes happens going forward. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: this notion of resim change, people sort of pull back

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Speaker 1: a little bit, or least it appears the President's pulled back.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if BB is pulled back on the

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Speaker 1: notion of regime change. But what won't change is their pursuit,

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Speaker 1: presumably of a nuclear weapon. As you note, we don't

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Speaker 1: know that the program was quote unquote obliterated. Even if

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Speaker 1: the physical sites may have been, we don't know where

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Speaker 1: this enriched uranium is and centrifugius you imagine. Now your

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Speaker 1: concern is now what that they accelerate that program with

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Speaker 1: the darkness, meaning without any international inspectors.

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Speaker 3: That's my concern.

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Speaker 2: It might not be their immedia priority, which I think

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Speaker 2: is to shore up the regime. But at some point

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Speaker 2: I do think reconstituting a program will become a priority,

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Speaker 2: which means, by the way, the day may come where

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Speaker 2: Israeli United States needs to once again use military force

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Speaker 2: if we discover some activity going on in the Iranians

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Speaker 2: won't voluntarily give it up. It's not normal that problems

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Speaker 2: get solved. When I was the head of the Council,

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Speaker 2: on Foreign Relations. I used to discourage the Fellows from

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Speaker 2: using the words solved or solution, because that's just the

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Speaker 2: way history works. So I don't believe whatever it is

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Speaker 2: we accomplished the other day, however much we accomplished, it

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Speaker 2: didn't solve the problem. It may have reduced it. It

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Speaker 2: may have set back the Iranian program, but that'll pop

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Speaker 2: up again. It's by the way you mentioned regime change.

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Speaker 2: It's one of the reasons that people, I think are

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Speaker 2: attracted to the idea. If you can't solve the Iranian

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Speaker 2: problem through military force or through diplomacy, then people say,

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Speaker 2: what's left, Well, let's get a benign government. And I

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Speaker 2: think that's why there's so much interest in regime change.

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Speaker 2: The problem is it's easier to talk about it than

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Speaker 2: bring it about. I don't see the prerequisites in place

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Speaker 2: for it, and in any case, you can't base.

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Speaker 3: Your policy on it.

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Speaker 2: People don't like it when I say this, but it's

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Speaker 2: a wish more than a strategy. If it were to happen.

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Speaker 2: I think it brings problems but obvious benefits with it.

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Speaker 2: But we just can't count on it, and no president

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Speaker 2: can give the order to say Secretary of Defense or

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Speaker 2: state and say, get me regime change in Iran.

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Speaker 3: They wouldn't have then the tools to necessarily.

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Speaker 1: Carry it out when it comes to just issues of trust.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I think one of the questions that

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Speaker 1: I get and I ask myself all the time, I

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Speaker 1: feel like, for most of my adult life, I've been

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Speaker 1: hearing baby Net and Yaho say they're just months away,

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Speaker 1: a year away from having weapons grade nuclear weapons, and

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Speaker 1: you know, a certain point you just stopped believing it.

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Speaker 1: But your assessment, you know, your own objective assessment this

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Speaker 1: time did appear to be different, that they were getting

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Speaker 1: closer and actually appeared to be within a matter of

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Speaker 1: months in a position where potentially we had a weapons

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Speaker 1: grade weapon coming out of Iran? Is that accurate?

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Speaker 2: Pretty much? Look, this was a gathering threat. It wasn't

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Speaker 2: an imminent threat. It was a gathering threat. And the

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Speaker 2: question is how close Now we know they had done

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Speaker 2: most of the enrichment work they need to do to

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Speaker 2: get it uranium enriched a plus or minus sixty percent,

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Speaker 2: that's not just sixty percent of the effort, that's actually

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Speaker 2: closer to ninety percent of the effort. For reasons of physics,

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Speaker 2: that I couldn't explain because I don't understand them well enough.

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Speaker 3: But I think I'm right there. Now. What you don't

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Speaker 3: know is how close they were on some of the

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Speaker 3: other things.

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Speaker 2: The actual fabrication of explosive device is the bomb, and

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Speaker 2: so forth. And there there was the Israelis, believe the

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Speaker 2: economists published some very interesting stuff about it, that they

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Speaker 2: had made some breakthroughs, they had had some secret programs

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Speaker 2: and so forth. And I think we have to be tolerant,

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Speaker 2: just like after nine to eleven we were less willing

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Speaker 2: to run certain risks, say about what Iraq could do.

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Speaker 2: And this is not a justification for the Iraq war.

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Speaker 2: I was against it, but just I understand some of

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Speaker 2: the thinking. I think Israel after October seventh had less

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Speaker 2: tolerance of running certain risks in their case. So I

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Speaker 2: just think the combination of a change mentality in Israel,

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Speaker 2: the evisceration of groups like Hisbella, which couldn't really attack

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Speaker 2: Israel anymore, and this new intelligence would suggested, however, far

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Speaker 2: along the Iranians, for they were farther along. And I

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Speaker 2: think for all those reasons, the Israelis decided to act

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Speaker 2: and we came in behind.

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Speaker 1: Does this keep BB in power for another extended period

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Speaker 1: of time.

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Speaker 2: We roughly what sixteen seventeen months to run before he

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Speaker 2: has to. I think the elections are scheduled for October

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Speaker 2: of next year. It certainly helps them. Mean Israel, as

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Speaker 2: you know, is deeply divided about issues on democracy, Gaza,

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Speaker 2: what have you, whether the religious can be drafted and

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Speaker 2: so forth. They are not divided on Iran, left and right,

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Speaker 2: hawk and dove. There aren't a lot of doves in

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Speaker 2: Israel when it comes to rod. So it clearly helps BB.

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Speaker 2: It changes the conversation a little bit, It brings Israel together.

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Speaker 2: It's seen as an accomplishment, and he has He has

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Speaker 2: changed in many ways israel strategic reality given the change

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Speaker 2: in Syria is volah, the weakening of a masque. Whatever

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Speaker 2: you think, however critical people watching this might be of

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Speaker 2: what Israel's done and how it's done it in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: the reality is that BB nets and Yahou in the

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Speaker 2: last what eighteen months, has dramatically reduced the external threat

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Speaker 2: to Israel.

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Speaker 1: And on that basis, are you confident that we'll have

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Speaker 1: sort of a you know, Abraham Accord two point zero

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Speaker 1: with Saudi coming in? Is that the map that you

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Speaker 1: see changing or is that still opening end in question

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Speaker 1: with the everything that's going on or not going on

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Speaker 1: in Gaza, West Bank, et cetera. What's your over under

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Speaker 1: on that look?

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Speaker 2: As you know, for a while it looked like it

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Speaker 2: was going to happen before October seventh, and then because

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Speaker 2: of if you were October eighth and Israeli policy, the

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Speaker 2: Saudis backed off. They got nervous or uneasy about it.

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Speaker 2: Two things may have changed now, though, which is interesting.

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Speaker 2: One is beaving that Tan Yahoo. As you were just suggesting,

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Speaker 2: Gavin politically is stronger than he was, so he might

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Speaker 2: give him more leverage against those in his government who

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Speaker 2: oppose any sort of change in policy on Gaza.

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Speaker 3: Secondly, there's this guy named Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting on how many occasions Trump has distanced himself

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Speaker 2: from beving that Ta Nyahoo. He did it on the huties,

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Speaker 2: he did it on the prisoner move with Hamas he

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Speaker 2: told the Israelis a few weeks ago, don't you dare

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Speaker 2: attack around. We're trying to see if diplomacy works. Just

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Speaker 2: the other day, shall we say, I'm rather colorful language.

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Speaker 2: He was out there. So it's possible that tomorrow he

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Speaker 2: would tell the israel Is, hey, knock it off in

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Speaker 2: Gaza or do this on the West Bank. There's an

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Speaker 2: unsentimental quality to America firstism. And one of the things

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Speaker 2: you see, we've beganned the conversation talking about Europe. Well,

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Speaker 2: one of the things, whether we're talking about security or

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Speaker 2: tariffs or now this being an ally of the United

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Speaker 2: States ain't when it used to be. When it comes

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Speaker 2: to Donald Trump, friends and allies no longer get preferred treatment.

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Speaker 2: So it wouldn't shock me if Donald Trump, in his

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Speaker 2: hope to get the Saut East to normalize with Israel,

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Speaker 2: put real pressure on bb Nets and Yao and we

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Speaker 2: put the Israelis in a real jam. Trump is popular

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Speaker 2: in Israel. And also it's almost like Nixon going to China.

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Speaker 2: Nixon Wan said, you know, they didn't have Nixon to

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Speaker 2: worry about. Well, you can't do an end run around

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. So if Donald Trump leans on vving Netshanyahu,

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Speaker 2: who are the Israelis going to appeal to in American

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Speaker 2: domestic politics. So I actually, I actually think that's a

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Speaker 2: curious possibility that something could happen there.

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Speaker 1: Do you find him under the influence And I say,

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Speaker 1: that loosely, I mean because of his own financial relationships

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Speaker 1: to the UAE and guitar and the Saudi's sort of

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Speaker 1: the Arab I mean, do you think they will play

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Speaker 1: an outsize role in influencing Trump in that respect?

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Speaker 2: Look, if they had, you probably would have gone ahead

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Speaker 2: and done the strike. As much as they wanted around

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Speaker 2: cut down to size. They were very nervous that they

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Speaker 2: were going to be in the line of fire of retaliation.

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Speaker 2: So my guess is there an influence but not a

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Speaker 2: determinant of what he does.

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Speaker 3: And I say that in no way how would I

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Speaker 3: put it.

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Speaker 2: I'm not comfortable with, shall we say, this merging of

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Speaker 2: the personal the government when it comes to wealth creation

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Speaker 2: or you know, the fact that people don't refuse themselves

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Speaker 2: from things, or they carry on private sector activity. I'm

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Speaker 2: as uncomfortable as I expect you are, or a lot

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Speaker 2: of people watching that, But I don't think they have.

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Speaker 3: I haven't seen that they have undoing. I haven't seen it.

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Speaker 1: Over is, you've written a lot about doctrines. You talk

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Speaker 1: about the Monroe doctrine. I think eighteen twenty three you've

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Speaker 1: sort of walked us through the Truman doctrine and aspects

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Speaker 1: of of not only Reagan, but even the freedom doctrine

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Speaker 1: as you refer to it under the Bush administration dealing

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Speaker 1: with terrorism, no place to hide? What do you have

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Speaker 1: any sense of what the hell that Trump doctrine is? Or,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Jade Vance tried to sert one in a

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Speaker 1: speech yesterday. What America first? What is it? What's your sense?

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Speaker 3: It's a good question. I think about it a lot.

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Speaker 2: Well, it might be earlier, it's still early, particularly in

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Speaker 2: the second term, and the second term is a hell

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Speaker 2: of a lot more than a continuation of the first term.

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Speaker 2: You may love that, you may hate it, but it

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Speaker 2: ain't Trump two point zero is more than an extension

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Speaker 2: of Trump one point Oh. There is something with this

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Speaker 2: America first ism that our alliances aren't as predictable, our

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Speaker 2: enemies aren't aren't seen as enemies. There's a kind of

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Speaker 2: perpetual maneuver in American foreign policies. I'm not quite sure

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Speaker 2: if that adds to a doctrine. In some ways, doctrines

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Speaker 2: lead you to predictable outcomes. In a funny sort of way,

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Speaker 2: Trump America first ism at times leads you to unpredictable outcomes.

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Speaker 2: It's not isolationist, though I would say it's quite unilateral,

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Speaker 2: you know, as we saw the the other day. I

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Speaker 2: also wrote a few weeks ago that there is something

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Speaker 2: of a doctrine. It's the opposite of the freedom doctrine,

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Speaker 2: where under people like George W.

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Speaker 3: Bush or even Reagan.

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Speaker 2: Or Carter, we cared an awful lot about how governments

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Speaker 2: treated their own people. This is just the opposite. This

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Speaker 2: is all look the other way foreign policy. What you

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Speaker 2: do inside your boards is your business. All we care

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Speaker 2: about is that our business. So there's almost amoral quality

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Speaker 2: to Trump be in foreign policy. And again, doctrines have

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Speaker 2: to explain and predict. So I'm not quite sure yet

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Speaker 2: we have anything that quite rises to that level.

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Speaker 1: Interesting. I mean, the only thing that would that would

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Speaker 1: contradict that modestly was JD Vance's speech in Munich where

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Speaker 1: he's lecturing the Europeans one hundred percent.

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Speaker 2: You're right to point out that contradiction. It's the one

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Speaker 2: area where it's almost like there's an equation of elite

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Speaker 2: Ivy League universities with elite Europe. And that's the one

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Speaker 2: place where the administration is willing to tackle internal situations

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Speaker 2: or circumstances in foreign countries.

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Speaker 3: But I think that's the exception that kind of proves

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Speaker 3: the rule.

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Speaker 1: Interesting. So where where's Putin now? What's he seen? What's what?

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Speaker 1: What do you think he's made of the last twelve days?

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Speaker 1: Where is he in relationship? I mean he's got a

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Speaker 1: free pass in some respects. The eyes are off him.

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Speaker 1: He's stepping things up in Ukraine. Is it status quo

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Speaker 1: ante or is he now reconsidering things?

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Speaker 2: Probably a mixed bag. Well, as you say, I think

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Speaker 2: you're a hundred percent right. He has to be happy

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Speaker 2: with the fact that both at the G seven and

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Speaker 2: then at Nato Zelenski and Ukraine were not quite center

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Speaker 2: stage yep. And that very much fits or feeds Putin's idea.

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Speaker 2: The time is on his side, so I think he

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Speaker 2: has to feel pretty good, pretty good about that. Anytime

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Speaker 2: there's instability that increases energy prices, not that we've seen

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Speaker 2: a real price bike, that's got to make him feel good.

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Speaker 3: Given his economy, it's got to.

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Speaker 2: Feel a little bit uneasy with this demonstration of American power,

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Speaker 2: with the discrepancy between what the United States can do

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Speaker 2: and what say Iran could do.

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Speaker 3: That's got to make them a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Uneasy, but I would think all things equal to the

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Speaker 2: last few days probably made them feel okay.

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Speaker 3: For one other reason.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you noticed, the won my Hutzpow

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Speaker 2: Award for the month the statement by the Russia Foreign

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Speaker 2: Ministry critical of ISRAE for not respecting the territorial integrity

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Speaker 2: and sovereignty of a UN member.

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Speaker 3: And I'm sitting there reading that, going really really so.

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Speaker 2: But the Russians have to like the idea that we

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Speaker 2: are we would unilaterally decide that certain uses of force

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Speaker 2: were somehow acceptable, and that's got to be something that

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Speaker 2: Putin might actually, you know, welcome.

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Speaker 1: And do you welcome? Sort of I mean, look from

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Speaker 1: a tactical perspective, turn the page. In terms of trying

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Speaker 1: to negotiate peace in Ukraine. Obviously stubborn, he wasn't able

438
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: to get it done before he took the oath of office.

439
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: He wasn't able to get it done within the twenty

440
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 1: four hour time clock, and he set himself up for

441
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: but sort of the overtures to Putin, sort of negotiating

442
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 1: Putin's talking points and putting Zelenski on the spot. But

443
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: where do you think Trump is right now in relationship to.

444
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: You know, he's been a little more critical, at least publicly,

445
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: been willing to be slightly more critical Putin, do you

446
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 1: where do you think the administration is move into to

447
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: a conclusion or solution here.

448
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 2: They're caught in the inconsistency of their own policy. They're

449
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: right to say that we need peace there. And I

450
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: think they had one improvement over the Biden policy, where

451
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 2: the Biden administration would never speak honestly with Zelenski, at

452
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 2: least publicly, and say, look, you know and we know

453
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 2: that you're not going to militarily liberate Crimea or all

454
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 2: the East. Let's go for a deal that we get

455
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 2: a cease fire. It doesn't prejudice your long term goals,

456
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 2: but let's stop this war. That's Trump's idea, and I

457
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 2: think that's smart. I think that's realistic. Where he's inconsistent

458
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 2: is he sabotaged. He's sabotaging the chance for getting it

459
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 2: by not being supportive of Ukraine. That gives Putin again

460
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 2: the confidence that time is on his side. If this

461
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 2: president would announce this summer, when the pipeline begins to

462
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:57,439
Speaker 2: run dry, we're going to re up American aid for Ukraine,

463
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 2: not so they can militarily liberate all their land. That's

464
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 2: going to have to be done diplomatically, but so Russian

465
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 2: efforts will not succeed. I think that would turn the

466
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: war out, and I actually think we may with the

467
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 2: more specifical I think that would persuade Putin over time

468
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 2: that more war would not lead to more territory. And

469
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 2: I think that actually would be the way to get

470
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 2: things at the negotiating table, not for peace, but for

471
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 2: cease fires. So the administration has the right goals, it's

472
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 2: just not going it's going about it in one hundred

473
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 2: percent the wrong way.

474
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 1: Is she looking at you know, a year whatever we're

475
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: in with Ukraine? Is that make him more or less

476
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: likely to pursue and make advanced pursuits in Taiwan? Or

477
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: has he seen something different the asymmetry of warfare now,

478
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 1: the nature and change the transformation of warfare. What's your

479
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: sense of where she is at this moment as well

480
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: in relate not only to Ukraine, but also perhaps more

481
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 1: broadly as well to what the Trump administration just initiated

482
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 1: in bb in around.

483
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 2: My glim answer to is going to be both or yes.

484
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 2: I think on one hand, he looks at Ukraine. He

485
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 2: looks at the sanctions that have been introduced. He looks

486
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 2: at how Putin overestimated the capabilities of his own military.

487
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 2: He's seen how the West came to bat indirectly but

488
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 2: decisively for Ukraine.

489
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,360
Speaker 3: That had to have given him pause. I mean, look,

490
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 3: think about it. There's no general in the Chinese military

491
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 3: who has military experience. Yeah, they have.

492
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 2: The least time they fought to wars against Vietnam, they didn't.

493
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: They didn't do so hot. And for the Chinese government

494
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 2: to go to war against Taiwan and not succeed, imagine

495
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 2: the domestic political consequences of that, The questions of legitimacy

496
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 2: they would raise, not just for she as a person,

497
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 2: but for the party. So I actually think they're they're

498
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 2: somewhat cautious here. I also think they have to find

499
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 2: it impossible to read Donald Trump again, given the tariffs,

500
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 2: given what he just did the other day, and I

501
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 2: think that must introduce a role of caution. I think

502
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: they've got some internal issues. He's been purging a lot

503
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 2: of military leaders. They've obviously got their economic challenges. So

504
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 2: he hasn't given up. Don't get me wrong, that Taiwan

505
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:29,439
Speaker 2: is his legacy. That's his way to make himself a

506
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: major figure in modern Chinese history. But I don't think

507
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,679
Speaker 2: the moments arrived. I think he wants to get a

508
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 2: better reading on Donald Trump. We still don't have a

509
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:44,400
Speaker 2: good feel for the Trump administration's relations with Japan, Taiwan, Australia,

510
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 2: but none of it's going particularly well. I think he

511
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 2: probably wants to see some more about the lessons of

512
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 2: the modern battlefield. He still wants to build up, among

513
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 2: other things, as nuclear arms.

514
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 3: One of the.

515
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 2: Lessons I think Shiesh Jing learn gav was the United

516
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 2: States did not get directly involved in helping Ukraine, and

517
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 2: he I think from Xijianpingk's point of view, that was

518
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 2: because of the mass of Russian nuclear arsenal. So China

519
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 2: right now is the owner of the world's fastest growing

520
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 2: nuclear arsenal. They're adding hundreds and hundreds of nuclear weapons

521
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 2: each year. They want to get they kind of want

522
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 2: to get the bronze medal in the Serious Nuclear Arsenal's Olympics,

523
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,959
Speaker 2: and they're moving as quickly as they can in that direction.

524
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 2: But my guess is they don't want to show down

525
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 2: over Taiwan. For several years until they believe they can

526
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 2: offset or deter any American pressure because of our nuclear advantages.

527
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: What do you make of the new president in Taiwan?

528
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 1: He's rolling out I think this week a unity tour,

529
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 1: is giving speeches. He seems to be you know, you know,

530
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 1: it's sort of not poking the bear, but certainly trying

531
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: to sort of suggest more muscularity visa the mainland China.

532
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: Is that you know, what do you what do you

533
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: read into that?

534
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, some of that's politics, some of it

535
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 2: spoken to bear. My view is what I really want

536
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: to do is see Taiwan get stronger. In Taiwan's the

537
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 2: level of defense effort is not in the right zip code. Still,

538
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: they've got to do a lot more. I look at

539
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 2: I mean, we talked about Israel a lot, and you know,

540
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 2: Israel's and shall we say, difficult strategic situation at least

541
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 2: it has been for most of its existence. And you

542
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 2: look at the level of military effort they've produced, or

543
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 2: even US during the Cold War, we were probably spending

544
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: i don't know, on the average of maybe six five,

545
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 2: six seven percent of GDP. Taiwan's nowhere near that. And

546
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 2: look at the disparities between the mainland and Taiwan. So

547
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 2: Taiwan more important than what they say is what they do,

548
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 2: and I would say they've really got to make a

549
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 2: much larger effort. They've got to also look very carefully

550
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 2: at what just happened in the Middle East and what's

551
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 2: happened in Ukraine and ask themselves whether they are incorporating

552
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 2: the right strategic lessons. Too much of the Taiwan military

553
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 2: historically has elements almost of ours, a small number of

554
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 2: expensive aircraft and so forth. I actually think they need

555
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 2: something much larger numbers are smaller, cheaper systems would probably

556
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 2: be helpful. The other country to really watch there is Japan.

557
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: I actually think we're at a moment in history where

558
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 2: Japan's our most important ally still the world's third largest economy,

559
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 2: and militarily it's central to any scenario involving Chinese pressure

560
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 2: against Taiwan. And I worry about the deterioration and that

561
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 2: relationship of late. So again, things like that might actually

562
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: affect Chinese calculations as well. But all I said, even

563
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 2: though you know, I worry about a lot, and I

564
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: worry about this as a strategic, medium, long term challenge.

565
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 3: I don't get the sense this is a near term challenge.

566
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 1: Interesting only slight correction. Japan is fourth to California's third.

567
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: I just had it comment on that four points. I'm

568
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 1: just saying, I'm waiting for my G seven invitation. That's

569
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 1: all you know, our G G five. I mean, I

570
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: don't know whatever G four of three. It's interesting you

571
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: say Japan is the most important. I've heard people others

572
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 1: sort of you know, suggest that Australia plays an outsize

573
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: role in terms of just you know, looking at the

574
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: sort of strategic realignment. Where do you make I mean

575
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 1: that president or the leadership there surprised some punderance and

576
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,719
Speaker 1: pulling out a pretty healthy margin and the victory. Obviously

577
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 1: they're overtures back and forth to China. But you made

578
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: a point which I don't really reflected on Trump's sort

579
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 1: of ambiguity with those relationships South Korea obviously and Japan

580
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: and the trilat that the Bidy administration had. Now we're

581
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 1: seeing that taking shape with she and obviously Australia seems

582
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 1: to be sort of the plus one right now. But

583
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 1: give me your sense of where Australia plays.

584
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 3: Look, Australia does play an outsize role.

585
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 2: I think that the relationship isn't as robust as it

586
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,479
Speaker 2: ought to be, hasn't gotten a whole lot of attention,

587
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 2: a lot of you know, a lot of our economic

588
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 2: policy has alienated our friends, you know, the tariffs in particular.

589
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 2: Most of the line on defense is do more, do more,

590
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 2: do more, and that gets a little bit old after

591
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 2: a while. So I would like to see if you

592
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 2: will more consultation with them. And again, you can't have

593
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 2: economic policy and military or strategic policy carried out in

594
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 2: separate silos. It's very hard to hammer an ally or

595
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: friend over trade issues on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, and

596
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 2: expect on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays. The strategic relationship is

597
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 2: going to be just fine. Doesn't work that way, So

598
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: I would say this is again I'm critical of a

599
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 2: lot of the economic policy on it its own merits.

600
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 3: I don't think it makes sense full stop.

601
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 2: But even putting that aside, it certainly doesn't make sense

602
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: because it ends up penalizing more than anyone our friends,

603
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 2: just those with the exception of China. It's our friends

604
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 2: and neighbors who are, as you know, our biggest economic partners.

605
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 1: Today. Donald Trump in his press conference when I was

606
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: confronted on why he hasn't solved the conflict in Ukraine immediately, well,

607
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: he pivoted to his success in immediately solving the crisis

608
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: in Pakistan and India. Overstated, understated? Is that an early

609
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: success that he deserves more credit than perhaps he's been given.

610
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 2: It sounds slightly ungenerous my part, but I think it's

611
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 2: a bit exaggerated. And it also has rub raw US

612
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 2: Indian relations.

613
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 1: I was going to ask that next.

614
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:56,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, it's always been difficult dealing with Pakistan

615
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 2: and dealing with India. But I think the great breakthrough,

616
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 2: and it was a bipartisan one of them the last

617
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: several administrations, was that US Indian relations got on a firmer,

618
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 2: more important strategic footing made sense given India's demographics, economics,

619
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 2: relationship with China and so forth. We bean, as you know,

620
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:21,439
Speaker 2: to bring Indian into various Asia Pacific strategic groupings. I've

621
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 2: always seen Pakistan more as a problem than as a partner.

622
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 2: It was a problem in Afghanistan in many ways, and

623
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 2: you know, the questions of democracy and human rights, the

624
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: role of the military and politics it's been a very

625
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 2: uneasy country. If you had asked me years ago what

626
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 2: keeps me up most tonight, I might have said Pakistan,

627
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 2: in part because the potential loss of command and control

628
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 2: over nuclear materials. So the even handedness that we've reintroduced.

629
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,439
Speaker 2: And then the shorthand for this is that we've we've

630
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 2: once again, we've once again hyphenated the relationship.

631
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:01,240
Speaker 3: So rather than having a strategic relationship with India and.

632
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 2: A lesser relationship with Pakistan, we now once again have

633
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 2: India Pakistan policy. And it seems to me that is

634
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 2: not a wise approach given what I would argue is

635
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 2: India's greater inherent importance and potential.

636
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 3: You know, how close they really were?

637
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 2: You know, I don't think things were that close to

638
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 2: escalating or getting out of a hand that said, Look,

639
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:30,760
Speaker 2: anytime the United States can dampen down actual or potential hostilities,

640
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:35,399
Speaker 2: you know, great, and I would you know, say well

641
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 2: done to the President or the Secretary of State or

642
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 2: anyone else who had a hand in it. But yeah,

643
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 2: I wouldn't exaggerate it here. And again it may have

644
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 2: come at some cost as well.

645
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, and then there was also a price. The

646
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 1: largest I think one of their crypto exchanges in Pakistan

647
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 1: now is yeah, well, and we'll get back into the

648
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,280
Speaker 1: corruption questions, or at least questions of corruption.

649
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 2: Look, I've heard that, and yeah, I don't know, but yeah,

650
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 2: it is what it is.

651
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 1: It is what it is. So you've been writing a

652
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: lot about, talking a lot about, and obviously only highlighted

653
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 1: with the last few weeks, But what the hell's wrong

654
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: with American foreign policy? We get so damn bogged down

655
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 1: in the Middle East. You've made the point there's a

656
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 1: whole world out there. We talked, we've sort of jumped

657
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 1: around different countries, different regions, but the reality is we

658
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 1: have been for decades and decades and decades bogged down

659
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 1: in the Middle East. You you e've an interesting history

660
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 1: working in Republican administrations, Bush administrations, But you made the

661
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 1: notation earlier, and it's important point to highlight you were

662
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: opposed to that last war in Iraq, and so you've

663
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 1: seen some light and some wisdom through all this. But

664
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 1: what the hell has happened to the United States over

665
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,839
Speaker 1: the last I mean, my entire lifetime been consumed by

666
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 1: countries none of us could pronounce. No one knows the

667
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 1: difference between Iraq and Iran. I think there was a

668
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 1: song about that, and you know what's going on, Richard help.

669
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 3: Us a fair question.

670
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: Just for the record, I didn't work for a democratic administration.

671
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 2: I worked in the Carter Pentagon. And one of the

672
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 2: big issues then was the Middle East. Is nineteen seventy

673
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: nine you had the revolution in Iran, then you had

674
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 2: the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan.

675
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 3: Look when the Cold War ended, what thirty five years.

676
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 2: Ago, I don't think anyone would have predicted Devin that

677
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 2: the Middle East would be such a focus of American

678
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 2: fire policy. The first real crisis of the post Cold

679
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 2: War era was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. We President

680
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 2: Bush forty one rallied the country in the world to

681
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 2: Kuwait's defense.

682
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 3: It was quite extraordinary. I think it was actually to me.

683
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 2: Like I duly note that I was part of the administration,

684
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 2: I worked on the Middle East. But you know, credit

685
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 2: I think is due to the President, bren Scokropt, Jim

686
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 2: Baker and others. It was quite remarkably done well, and

687
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 2: I think what we did was necessary. The two thousand

688
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 2: and three Iraq War was a war of choice. I

689
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 2: think it was misguided and some other I think with

690
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 2: the other day what we did was I think was warranted.

691
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 2: But in general, if I look at the map of

692
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 2: American farm policity and that you still have forty thousand

693
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 2: troops in the Middle East, it seems to me that

694
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 2: it's a disproportionate focus for US. It's the one it's

695
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 2: one of the parts the world where you don't have

696
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,439
Speaker 2: a great power presence, you don't really have much great

697
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 2: power competition, and that it's you have regional powers, not

698
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 2: great powers.

699
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 3: I would say.

700
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 2: Ultimately twenty first century history is going to be much

701
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 2: more written about what happens in Europe and above all

702
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,440
Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific. Asia Pacific is where the people are,

703
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 2: it's where the wealth is, It's where the militaries are

704
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 2: going to be. US China competition will be defining. So

705
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:50,840
Speaker 2: it seems to me strategically there is still something odd

706
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 2: about the emphasis that the Middle East gets, and I

707
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 2: think we've we've gotten too ambitious there at times. I think,

708
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 2: in particular forty three's effort to transform it to bring

709
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 2: about democracy was.

710
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 3: I think still advised.

711
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 2: I'll be diplomatic here and so forth, and some other

712
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 2: things that we've done again were I would say we

713
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 2: should do no more than is necessary in the Middle East,

714
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 2: because there's other parts of the world that I would

715
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 2: argue are strategically more important, and we just.

716
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 3: Find ourselves more about that.

717
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 2: I don't have a good answer for you exactly why

718
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 2: at times, but somehow it's captured our imagination. One of

719
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 2: the odd things for secretaries of state, and I worked

720
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 2: with quite a few. How getting heavily involved in Middle

721
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,479
Speaker 2: East and diplomacy was almost part of the job after

722
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,879
Speaker 2: Henry Kissinger, and I like it or not, people found

723
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:46,879
Speaker 2: themselves doing it, and yeah, less my take on all

724
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 2: that is, no mediator can ever be more successful than

725
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 2: the protagonists want or would allow him to be. And

726
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 2: I think at times we've too often substituted our own

727
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,760
Speaker 2: efforts for what was missing on the part of the locals.

728
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 2: So my argument is not to get out of the

729
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,959
Speaker 2: Middle East, but I would where possible dial it down.

730
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 1: So you know, it's interesting. We had Steve Bannon on

731
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,720
Speaker 1: this show, and I don't get the merits and demerits

732
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 1: of that conversation, but he's had a lot of more

733
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 1: public conversations about what he perceived, or at least asserted

734
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 1: was the wisdom of Trump focusing on things like Greenland

735
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:28,440
Speaker 1: or countries like Greenland, focusing on the Panama Canal. Looking

736
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 1: at it more from a strategic prism sort of you know,

737
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 1: hemispheric framework and sort of creating a stronger consciousness to

738
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 1: sort of regionalize our American first framework and to put

739
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 1: it in, you know, in at least creating a narrative

740
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 1: around what some of us perceived as just the absurdity

741
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 1: of these threats to take over Greenland, make Canada fifty

742
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 1: first state, and invade or take over the Panama Canal.

743
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: Is there any merit to that argument or is it

744
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 1: just folly?

745
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 2: Folly would be generous the terrible idea. Look, it seems

746
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 2: to be setting up a kind of spheres of influence

747
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 2: approach to the world. So we would have the lead

748
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,399
Speaker 2: role in this part of the world, presumably Russia would

749
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 2: have a lead role in the European theater, China and

750
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific. Russia and China would be very happy

751
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 2: with that arrangement. No one in this hemisphere would be

752
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,320
Speaker 2: so in a f any sort of way. We wouldn't

753
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 2: succeed at playing an outsized role because it would be

754
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 2: resisted every inch.

755
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 3: Of the way.

756
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,879
Speaker 2: Americans, including a lot of the Maga people, wouldn't want

757
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 2: us involved in imperial wars in this part of the world,

758
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 2: whether it's Panama or Mexico, or Greenland or Canada.

759
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 3: So I just think it's unnecessary.

760
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 2: We can have the access the influence we need without

761
00:41:55,440 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 2: an imperial coercive role. And again, the real strategic challenges

762
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,399
Speaker 2: of the century are not going to be met here.

763
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 3: They're going to be met.

764
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 2: In other parts of the world, above all Asia and

765
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 2: the Pacific. So I think it's really a truly misguided approach.

766
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 2: But it makes me uneasy because I can see something

767
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 2: of it, and this kind of people don't yet speak

768
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 2: about spheres of influence, but it's kind of in the

769
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 2: air of the water, and I'm uneasy about it. But

770
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 2: it's not a recipe for order. We would be resisted here,

771
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 2: and history suggest wherever there'd be a lot of opposition.

772
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 2: And by the way, it would become a real recipe

773
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 2: for proliferation. Watch how if something like that were to

774
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 2: begin to gain momentum, Watch countries in e urbeer in

775
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:43,880
Speaker 2: Asia decide they need nuclear weapons of their own. So

776
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 2: I think that kind of an approach to the world

777
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 2: would be quite honestly catastrophic.

778
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 1: Questions around the globe in terms of concerns we so

779
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: often neglect. Continent of Africa was a reference today of

780
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 1: Congo from the President the only time we tend to

781
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:12,280
Speaker 1: focus on Africa as a relationship to China's investment. The

782
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,240
Speaker 1: same with the Central America or South America as well.

783
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 1: I mean parts of the globe that seemed to be

784
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: under resourced in terms of mind share and investment, strategic investments.

785
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 1: What's your over under in terms of America's posture in

786
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:31,800
Speaker 1: South America, Central America. But first let's start in Africa.

787
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 2: What makes Africa, siouey generous, What makes it unique going

788
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 2: forward is demographics. Most of the world is getting a

789
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 2: shrinking in number and getting older. South Asia is the

790
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 2: one partial exception. Africa is an enormous exception. Africa is

791
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 2: going to be increasing by what more than a billion

792
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 2: people over the next generation or so, and the question

793
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,839
Speaker 2: is whether that's a burden or a bonus, and that.

794
00:43:57,840 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 3: Remains to be seen.

795
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 2: So I think Africa is important, not in the sense

796
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 2: of great power strategic competition. That's a sideshow for the

797
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 2: most part, but really it's a human story. It's with

798
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 2: you know, all these people, and the question is can

799
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 2: economically these people, can they be employed?

800
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 3: Can governments provide services?

801
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 2: You can you have good enough governance, So in places

802
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 2: like Nigeria, South Africa and other countries that you don't.

803
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 3: Have civil wars and so forth.

804
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 2: So I think that's the big question for Africa, and

805
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 2: by the way, pretty true of Latin America as well,

806
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 2: without the democraptic dimension. But again, the biggest problems in

807
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 2: Latin America are not whether Brazil is going to invade

808
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 2: Argentina or whether Russia or China going to do.

809
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 3: Some of the biggest issues they are internal their governance.

810
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 3: Can the Mexican.

811
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 2: Government meet the responsibilities and challenges of sovereignty within Mexico?

812
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 2: Can they deal with cartels and drugs and criminals and

813
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 2: the and the light and where possible. I think our

814
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:06,240
Speaker 2: policy ought to be to help these countries meet their challenges,

815
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 2: because it's good for them, but it's also good for us.

816
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 2: Then there'll be conditions of stability, better chance for democracy,

817
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:15,760
Speaker 2: better chance for trade and investment, better way to deal

818
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 2: with whether it's health challenges or climate challenges or what

819
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 2: have you. So we do it it's both. Again, it's

820
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 2: not either or it's the right thing to do. It's

821
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:28,479
Speaker 2: helpful to them, but I think it also very much

822
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 2: works in our favor. It's one of the reasons, by

823
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 2: the way, I'm so critical of what we've done to

824
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 2: the Agency for International Development. The real folly of that

825
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 2: is not that it provides opportunities for China, which it does,

826
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 2: but again, we weaken the ability of these societies and

827
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 2: these governments to deal with their immediate challenges. That can't

828
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 2: be good because ultimately failed states become places where terrorists

829
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:53,760
Speaker 2: set up shop, where disease breaks out and spread, Pirates

830
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 2: do their things, criminals do their things. So again, even

831
00:45:57,719 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 2: out of narrow self interest, we ought to be doing

832
00:45:59,880 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 2: more in these places. So I just think it's quite

833
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:03,760
Speaker 2: short sighted.

834
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 1: So let me move back, and I see it. You've

835
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:13,799
Speaker 1: got a book behind you that I want to talk

836
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:16,400
Speaker 1: about in a moment, and it brings us back a

837
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: little bit more domestically, and it brings back sort of

838
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 1: just to the prism of you know, my lens has

839
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 1: changed dramatically in the last few weeks since I have

840
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 1: just shy have five thousand members of the US military

841
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: on the streets of one of America's largest cities, Los Angeles,

842
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 1: without council consent on the support of the state revere

843
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 1: the men and women in uniform that are out there

844
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 1: just not their assignment. But it also sort of assigned

845
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 1: some consideration and consciousness to this administration and what distinguishes

846
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:58,839
Speaker 1: it from the first Trump administration. I know you've got

847
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 1: a blog You've written a little bit about this where

848
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: you said Trump is organized a cabinet that are more

849
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 1: of amplifiers than more traditional sort of metrics of people

850
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 1: that would sort of, you know, great sort of a

851
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 1: governing of our framework, regulatory or regulate some of the thinking.

852
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 1: I mean, where's where are you today in terms of

853
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 1: this administration? One hundred and fifty or so days in

854
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 1: however many days, it's been growing concern simmering concerns We

855
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 1: overstate authoritarianism. Is that a word that we should even

856
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 1: be using. Is democracy hanging in the balance or are

857
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,880
Speaker 1: we fine? What's your sort of over under what's the

858
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 1: temperature right now?

859
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:45,959
Speaker 2: The fact that we have to have this conversation tells

860
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:51,720
Speaker 2: you something am uneasy. I'm uncomfortable with words like authoritarianism

861
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 2: all that that's something to be avoided ultimately, but there's

862
00:47:54,520 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 2: tendencies that worry me. We haven't had. There's two major

863
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: lines that the administrations walked right up to and played

864
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 2: footsoe with but hasn't quite crossed in a decisive way.

865
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 2: One was the one you were alluding to, which is

866
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 2: the use of the American military inside our borders, and

867
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,759
Speaker 2: that to me has all sorts of implications for American democracy,

868
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 2: but also it's terrible for the American military. It reduces readiness,

869
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,759
Speaker 2: It politicizes what has been in some ways the most

870
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 2: successful modern American institution that we.

871
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 3: Have. So that's one thing that makes me uneasy. We're not.

872
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 2: We haven't quite crossed that line, but we've tiptoed up

873
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 2: to it, as you know better than I do. The

874
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 2: other is defiance of decisions by the judiciary, and again

875
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 2: some of the quasi defiance, not quite hearing what the

876
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 2: courts were saying on deportations and so far.

877
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 3: So that leaves me uneasy. But I don't think.

878
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 2: Either yet has reached the point of shall we say,

879
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:05,319
Speaker 2: broad crisis or crisis of the first order.

880
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 3: But I think there's grounds for being uneasy.

881
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 2: Look, it's the irony of this isn't lost here we are.

882
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 2: It's now what late June and approximately what twelve months.

883
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:21,359
Speaker 2: In a week we're going to be marking the two

884
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 2: hundred and fiftieth anniversary of this country. And to me,

885
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:31,239
Speaker 2: the lesson is not to take democracy for granted. You've

886
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:32,759
Speaker 2: done good things, by the way in your state with

887
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 2: Josh Friday, I think in terms of promoting volunteerism and

888
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 2: public service, which I think is great both for the

889
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 2: values enhances, but also it brings Americans together. I've tried

890
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 2: to make a big thing about Civics education. We shouldn't

891
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 2: assume that people don't need it or somehow get it automatically.

892
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: The answers they do need it and they don't get

893
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 2: in their schools. For the most part, that ought to

894
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:58,920
Speaker 2: become much bigger priority, and we ought to think a

895
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 2: lot about what we need uh to do to make

896
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 2: sure American democracy works. But I get uneasy with some

897
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 2: of the attacks on civil society, whether it's law firms

898
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 2: or universities or or what have you. So I think

899
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:15,920
Speaker 2: there's a lot of yellow lights flashing, and so my

900
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,320
Speaker 2: view is we ought to we ought to be mindful

901
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 2: of them and not again not take anything for granted,

902
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 2: or you know, you know Churchill has always quoted for everything. Uh,

903
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,600
Speaker 2: and one of them is that you Americans can always

904
00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 2: be counted on to do the right thing after they

905
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 2: do everything else.

906
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:36,880
Speaker 3: There's a kind of sanguine quality.

907
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 2: Or yeah, we get in trouble, but we've always come

908
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 2: out in the right place and never sell America short.

909
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 3: Probably, but let's not take it for granted. That's my

910
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 3: only view.

911
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 2: I think it's just a we ought to feel a

912
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 2: sense of urgency and the given how enormous the stakes are.

913
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 2: I don't think anybody kind of how to put it,

914
00:50:56,000 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 2: democracy can't be a spectator sport. And whether you were

915
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 2: in positions of authority like you, whether you're a quote

916
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:08,280
Speaker 2: unquote justice citizen or you're a CEO of some business

917
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:09,120
Speaker 2: or what have you.

918
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 3: I just think there's ways for people to make a difference,

919
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 3: and again, we just can't. It's too valuable to not.

920
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:22,840
Speaker 2: How I put it, none of us wants to be

921
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 2: in a position where, if things do heads out, we

922
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:27,320
Speaker 2: wish we had done things that we know that we

923
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 2: simply sat on the sidelines.

924
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 1: You talk about citizenship, you've written about citizenship, and you've

925
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 1: challenged us to reconsider what you refer to as sort

926
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:44,880
Speaker 1: of a lopsided notion of citizenship, that it's not just

927
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 1: about rights, it's about obligations. You wrote a book, the

928
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 1: Bill of Obligations, and you enumerate a framework about the

929
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:58,880
Speaker 1: critical importance of service and civics, the common good, the

930
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 1: best of you know, the wrong and republic, Greek democracy,

931
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 1: and I think the principles are founding fathers. To talk

932
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: to us a little bit about what inspired you to

933
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 1: write the book. You wrote it a few years ago,

934
00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 1: I imagine inspiration today would be even more acute. But

935
00:52:15,280 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 1: it's an important and essential read. And by the way,

936
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:22,800
Speaker 1: it's fantastic for anyone that's listening. Talk to me Richard

937
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 1: a little bit and all of us about what inspired

938
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:28,040
Speaker 1: this book and what you're really trying to communicate.

939
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, thank you.

940
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 2: Years before I wrote another book called Foreign Policy Begins

941
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 2: at Home. And you know, I'm a fart as you look,

942
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 2: as we can see from this conversation, for better or worse,

943
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 2: I'm a foreign policy guy. That's my educational training, that's

944
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 2: my professional experience. But probably about a decade ago I

945
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 2: started to see much greater connection between what we were

946
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:52,800
Speaker 2: doing or not doing here at home, and our ability

947
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 2: to be effective abroad. I wrote about everything from indebtedness

948
00:52:57,120 --> 00:53:00,359
Speaker 2: ten years ago. A big issue was energy dependence. By

949
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 2: the way, shows we can work through things. Quality or

950
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 2: lack of it, of our public education, strength of our democracy.

951
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:09,760
Speaker 3: And I was worried very much.

952
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 2: A decade ago about our inability to generate majorities to

953
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 2: deal with the challenges increasingly, particularly at the federal level,

954
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 2: less so at the state level. We were gridlocked. And

955
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 2: what I noticed in the year since that things weren't

956
00:53:23,680 --> 00:53:28,080
Speaker 2: getting better, things were getting worse. And so I just decided,

957
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 2: I can't quite answer your question what inspired me, but

958
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:34,880
Speaker 2: I was just thinking a lot about it. And I

959
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 2: take long walks when I think about a book, and

960
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 2: Central Park becomes my co author. And just then went

961
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 2: back and reread or in some cases read for the

962
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 2: first time, a lot of the great works of American

963
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:52,919
Speaker 2: political history, and I was just struck by how much

964
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:56,080
Speaker 2: explicitly a lot of our modern are not so modern

965
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 2: history was about the expansion of rights what Lincoln called

966
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 2: the unfinished work, and I get it, and it's actually

967
00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:04,439
Speaker 2: been one of the great things civil rights and so forth.

968
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 2: We have a lot to be proud of in this

969
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:11,160
Speaker 2: country towards a more perfect union. We're not there, but

970
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 2: we've made some real strides. But it seemed to be

971
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 2: lost in that. Increasingly was the other side of us

972
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 2: that no one was any more talking about obligations. It's

973
00:54:20,719 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 2: interesting the founding fathers didn't talk about it a lot explicitly.

974
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:25,840
Speaker 2: I think they assumed it. Gavin, I think it was implicit.

975
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:28,480
Speaker 2: They didn't think they needed to remind people about it.

976
00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 2: But increasingly it seemed to me we did. You look

977
00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 2: at the numbers of the people who are eligible to

978
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 2: vote and don't vote, the amount of people who get

979
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:41,880
Speaker 2: their information quote unquote from TikTok rather than from serious sources,

980
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:46,200
Speaker 2: the polls that show young people don't value democracy, don't

981
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 2: think it's worth saving, the lack of public service opportunities increasingly,

982
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 2: the failure to require quality the civics to be taught

983
00:54:56,960 --> 00:55:00,800
Speaker 2: in classrooms, growing threats or realities of pe to go violence,

984
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:03,759
Speaker 2: and on and on, and things like COVID and so forth,

985
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 2: showed me that a lack of what you mentioned before

986
00:55:08,120 --> 00:55:11,319
Speaker 2: about the common good, whether to get vaccinated, to wear

987
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 2: a mask. It's not just for me, but it's also

988
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 2: for the other person. So it just all added up

989
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 2: and I just decided that I would I would put

990
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 2: my hand to it. So it's for me as an author.

991
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:26,040
Speaker 2: It was great. But I learned more writing that book

992
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:27,839
Speaker 2: than any other book I've ever written, because I knew

993
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 2: less about it going in.

994
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: And you've written what sixteen book? How many books?

995
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 2: I've written a dozen and edited a few more. So

996
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 2: it's a it's a large it's up to sixteen. But

997
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 2: I'm not done yet. I got a few more in me.

998
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 1: There's plenty of chapters of your life left and and

999
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 1: and look, I'm grateful for this opportunity to share a

1000
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 1: little bit of your time and your your your action

1001
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:59,759
Speaker 1: and passion as it were. And when we get you back,

1002
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:04,040
Speaker 1: I need you back for the original conversation we haven't had,

1003
00:56:04,080 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 1: which is what the hell is going on with my party,

1004
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:08,080
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party?

1005
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:08,760
Speaker 3: Uh?

1006
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:10,600
Speaker 1: And how we're going to take back the House, what

1007
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 1: we need to do? Uh? And uh, how we get

1008
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:17,280
Speaker 1: back on the right side of these presidential elections.

1009
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:18,320
Speaker 3: You give me thirty more seconds.

1010
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,360
Speaker 2: I was going to raise that which is out everyone's

1011
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:24,320
Speaker 2: talking about bda battle damage assessment in terms of Iran.

1012
00:56:24,800 --> 00:56:26,880
Speaker 2: I was going to raise Bda in terms of the

1013
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: New York mayoral primary.

1014
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 1: Uh okay, is that how we're going to end this

1015
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 1: as opposed to begin this conversation. Uh? That is for

1016
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: all of you listening a preview of the next podcast

1017
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 1: or your us I guess on well, part one of

1018
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 1: this two part pod. Richard, thanks for being

1019
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:50,719
Speaker 3: Here, Thank you sir, enjoying us