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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA All right, here.

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Speaker 2: We go, ready in the court. Ten seconds remaining.

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Speaker 1: So just go show up to the basket.

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Speaker 2: Under the basket. It's the true for the wind God

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Speaker 2: a miracle.

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Speaker 3: I's water hit that one from.

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Speaker 2: The parking lot.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 4: draftings On My Calbreys and I have to tell you

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Speaker 4: I am thrilled about this new Wednesday show. We're talking

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Speaker 4: college hoops the rest of the way, all the way

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Speaker 4: through the Final Four. You're gonna get us every single Wednesday.

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Speaker 4: Who's us? You got me, Mike Calbreys, I'm hosting the show.

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Speaker 4: My co host that I'm thrilled to be joined up

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Speaker 4: with again is duck our Man josh Nn. He's gonna

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Speaker 4: hit us with all those deep cuts, all those over

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Speaker 4: unders from low major college basketball. And we have a

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Speaker 4: brand new addition to the Action Network family here and

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Speaker 4: the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, and that's Christian Oh.

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Speaker 4: Jack Gan. Really excited to have him on as well.

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Speaker 4: We're going to run through what brought us together, why

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Speaker 4: we're here, But really, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 4: you're listening because you want best bets you want our

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Speaker 4: hot takes. Also, by the next episode, we're gonna have

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Speaker 4: some futures conversations as well, adding to that portfolio as

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Speaker 4: the season rolls on. Before we hop in, though, as

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Speaker 4: I mentioned, we're gonna go around the horn introduce ourselves

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Speaker 4: a bit to the audience. We're gonna start with you, Duck,

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Speaker 4: my G five co pilot from football season. Now we're

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Speaker 4: attached to the hip again for at least the next

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Speaker 4: two two and a half months of college hoops. Talk

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Speaker 4: to me about what you brought you to college basketball.

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Speaker 4: We know your acumen everything you do on the grid

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Speaker 4: iron in terms of FCS football G five football, but

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Speaker 4: talk us through college hoops.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, college hoops is one of my favorite sports to

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Speaker 3: watch and bet you get a long season. There's a

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Speaker 3: lot of different elements in stages too the season. I've

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Speaker 3: personally been betting on college basketball since two thousand and nine,

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Speaker 3: spent a lot of time posting my plays into the

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Speaker 3: forums before I started an action network a couple of

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Speaker 3: years back. Well, I'm going to take a real analytical,

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Speaker 3: stats driven based approach to my wagering. About ninety five

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Speaker 3: percent of my plays, as you had alluded, to are

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Speaker 3: going to be totals. I'm going to be looking for

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Speaker 3: things like pace discrepancies, Teams that are able to play

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Speaker 3: solid defense without following, or teams that are unable to

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Speaker 3: do that, Teams that can alter shots and protect the rim,

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Speaker 3: neutral site unders, teams that will or will not shoot

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Speaker 3: the three. So we're going to look at a lot

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Speaker 3: of total variants and a lot of that'll be metric driven.

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Speaker 3: But I love the variants and the volatility of college hoops.

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Speaker 3: There can be some wild swings.

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Speaker 2: Good and bad.

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Speaker 3: But it's going to be real fun season with both

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Speaker 3: of you guys here. I'm excited, Christian to have you

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Speaker 3: on the program with us, and we are going to

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Speaker 3: work like hell to put out some good products and

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Speaker 3: get everybody to the window.

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Speaker 4: Whenever you talk tempo, Duck, I always think of JK.

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Speaker 4: Simmons and whiplash. Not quite my temple, Christian. We went

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Speaker 4: down to Tobacco Road to pluck you from Wake Forest.

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Speaker 4: That's where your basketball journey began. Fill us in on

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Speaker 4: the rest.

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Speaker 5: Grew up in Rhode Island outside Providence, so grew up

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Speaker 5: going to Vidence games, Yukon games. Always loved the tournament

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Speaker 5: and I have vivid memories of in middle school. I

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Speaker 5: love to just make a prediction and be right, and

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Speaker 5: the first one that I had was I was loud

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Speaker 5: at the lunch table Mercer is gonna beat Duke.

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Speaker 1: I just hated Duke and.

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Speaker 5: Read a couple of things that Mercer had, like won

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Speaker 5: some overtime games and play well against power five comps.

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Speaker 1: But I'm just so loud, Mercer's gonna be Duke, and

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Speaker 1: they did.

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Speaker 2: The year after.

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Speaker 1: I followed it up with Georgia State and Baylor.

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Speaker 5: So I just started loving, you know, just tracking mid

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Speaker 5: major basketball and trying to know as much as I

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Speaker 5: could about teams. Another key memory was twenty sixteen March Madness.

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Speaker 5: Florida State was a nine seed and they beat Xavier

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Speaker 5: in the second round and then they beat Gonzaga in

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Speaker 5: the Sweet sixteen. I remember watching them in those games

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Speaker 5: and I'm like, this team is so good, like eleven guys,

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Speaker 5: you know, Terrence Mans on that team, Cavin Jelly, and

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Speaker 5: I just had never watched Florida State play like they

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Speaker 5: were just a you know, borderline kind of outside the

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Speaker 5: top twenty five team.

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Speaker 1: And I kind of made up my mission after that.

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Speaker 5: I need to get eyes on every team that could

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Speaker 5: make a run, because I don't want that to happen again,

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Speaker 5: where I'm watching a team in the tournament.

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Speaker 1: And I go, I wish, I wish I knew how

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Speaker 1: good they were.

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Speaker 5: So I just kind of became a sickle after that,

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Speaker 5: and then covering Wake Forest for all four years for

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Speaker 5: the school newspaper when I was a student there, got

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Speaker 5: to just see AC basketball all the time. I traveled

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Speaker 5: to some other sites, got to talk to coaches after

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Speaker 5: the game, So that just kind of leveled me up

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Speaker 5: even more.

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Speaker 1: I live in Chicago now, so after college.

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Speaker 5: Branched out to bedding because I wanted to grow my

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Speaker 5: following and talk about the sport, and just being able

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Speaker 5: to put out analysis on my plays was my way

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Speaker 5: to do that and got hot a few times in

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Speaker 5: the rest of this kind of history.

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Speaker 2: So glad to be here.

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Speaker 1: And you know, favorite sport, love to watch it, love

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Speaker 1: everything about it.

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Speaker 4: Let's see those back to back. Mercer, what was the

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Speaker 4: celebration for the Mercer Kid with thirteen? Just an incredible performance.

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Speaker 4: And then on the sideline as well for the Georgia

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Speaker 4: State play, was it Hunter with the rolling chair with

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Speaker 4: absolutely what he tear is like Achilles or something beforehand

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Speaker 4: that was absolutely phenomenal. And I just say too, the

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Speaker 4: college basketball world, I think it is putting us together

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Speaker 4: for a reason. Skip Prosser wake Forest Legend also took

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Speaker 4: my loyal Greyhounds to the NCAA Tournament in the nineties

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Speaker 4: as well, so we have that overlap for the audience

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Speaker 4: that doesn't know me. Let's see where did I start

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Speaker 4: here when it comes to college hoops. I was the

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Speaker 4: in house bracketologist for The Score for a handful of years,

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Speaker 4: which really got me into the nitty gritty of lower

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Speaker 4: level college basketball, you know, looking at all the advanced stats,

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Speaker 4: watching a lot of low major basketball. I've also and

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Speaker 4: this is like, this is funny because if you say, oh,

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Speaker 4: why my qualified to talk about the NFL, I play NFL

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Speaker 4: Fantasy Wooh, congrats. I've run a college fantasy basketball league

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Speaker 4: for eighteen years that features all three hundred and sixty

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Speaker 4: five Division one teams, So there is no one that

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Speaker 4: slips through the net in terms of statistical monsters. So

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Speaker 4: I can really tell you just about every single league

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Speaker 4: in all of college hoops, who are the top five players.

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Speaker 4: Who are the guys to keep an eye on and

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Speaker 4: that can be really helpful in terms of doing your

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Speaker 4: homework before locking in at during non conference season. You

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Speaker 4: saw it with like Northern Colorado the other night against

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Speaker 4: Texas Tech. I was going to be on them. If

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Speaker 4: Denker played, he ends up sitting. You know, he has

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Speaker 4: that injury. They're not you know, a league that where

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Speaker 4: they have to have injury reports. They end up covering anyway.

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Speaker 4: But the point being is that you need to know

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Speaker 4: who the instrumental players are at that level because the

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Speaker 4: drop off from a top scorer and a big sky

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Speaker 4: to the next guy off the bench is monumental, where

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Speaker 4: sometimes at the high major level a single player can

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Speaker 4: be overblown in terms of line movement. Outside of that,

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Speaker 4: I've been you know, with action since twenty nineteen. I

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Speaker 4: came in through the same door, which was low major

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Speaker 4: basketball covering that so that still remains kind of my

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Speaker 4: sweet spot. And I think what's interesting too is that

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Speaker 4: with some of these smaller leagues, you get continuity and coaching,

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Speaker 4: and you get a real feel for the brand of

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Speaker 4: basketball teams want to play like. You will get a

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Speaker 4: conference like the ACC that can have more revolving chairs

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Speaker 4: and musical chairs at the head coaching spot compared to

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Speaker 4: like the A ten. When I look at the A ten,

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Speaker 4: you g got like Chris Mooney at Richmond over twenty years,

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Speaker 4: Mark Schmidt coming up in twenty years at Saint.

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Speaker 2: Bonav Engin, Anthony Grant, even Davidson.

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Speaker 4: Where they have the McKillop handoff from father to son

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Speaker 4: that goes all the way back to nineteen eighty nine.

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Speaker 4: You have a feel for how these teams are going

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Speaker 4: to play, and I think that really gives you an

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Speaker 4: advantage to not necessarily have that recency bias. How did

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Speaker 4: the team just play in the previous game. You got

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Speaker 4: to feel for what to expect over the course of

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Speaker 4: a season. All right, it's time to get into some

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Speaker 4: actual hoops. You now know what brings us all together.

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Speaker 4: And the beauty of this is that we're going to

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Speaker 4: have some talking points. We're going to be able to

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Speaker 4: get some rants. We're going to look at futures, not

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Speaker 4: just the best bets, not just our best plays. So

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Speaker 4: we're going to start here first with you, Duck in

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Speaker 4: terms of a trend, a team, a player, a topic

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Speaker 4: that really has you interested or you want to put

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Speaker 4: a spotlight on it for our audience. Before we get

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Speaker 4: into our best bets.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I've got two points to make. I'll be

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Speaker 2: quick on both.

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Speaker 3: But speaking of the kind of the mid major theme,

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Speaker 3: the eight tens are really good league this year.

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Speaker 2: You look up and down this conference.

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Speaker 3: You have the consistency in the coaching regimes as you

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Speaker 3: had mentioned, but you've got a collection of excellent teams.

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Speaker 3: George and Richmond, Saint Louis, Saint Bonnie, Dayton, and I

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Speaker 3: haven't even mentioned the usual suspects yet, Virginia Commonwealth and

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Speaker 3: Rhode Island. This could be a really fun league this

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Speaker 3: year as the A ten kind of develops through their

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Speaker 3: conference slate, maybe a two bid league perhaps, and then

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Speaker 3: another super under the radar team. I think Tulsa could

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Speaker 3: be really good this year. They were a complete meltdown

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Speaker 3: at Kansas State away from being undefeated. They were up

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Speaker 3: five forty eight seconds left lost. They have wins over

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Speaker 3: Rhode Island, Northern Iowa, are really under the radar New

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Speaker 3: Mexico State bunch and the roster. I really like what

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Speaker 3: they did with the roster this year. Tylan Riley from

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Speaker 3: cal Baptist came over, David Green from Rhode Island, Miles

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Speaker 3: Barnstable from Saint Thomas major contributors for Tulsa and just

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Speaker 3: a really feisty group. Just a group that can get

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Speaker 3: to the foul line, and they make.

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Speaker 2: Their free throws, which is important.

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Speaker 3: They shoot the three well, they don't allow second chance

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Speaker 3: points on the defensive end. We saw Conkle do this

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Speaker 3: at Louisiana Tech. He couldn't quite get over the hump

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Speaker 3: with building up the Louisiana Tech roster the way he

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Speaker 3: wanted to construct it. But Tulsa could end up being

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Speaker 3: one of those teams we're talking about in March that

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Speaker 3: maybe makes a little noise in the NCAA tournament. Just

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Speaker 3: a really tough out and a team that I think

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Speaker 3: is going to pile up the wins as the season continues.

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Speaker 4: When you look at a big ticket or you know,

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Speaker 4: an overarching theme in college hoops, tempo is also really

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Speaker 4: important to you and your breakdown, Christian. I mean, obviously

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Speaker 4: Duck's going to talk about it from a totals perspective

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Speaker 4: the entire way, but how does that, you know, fold

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Speaker 4: into your nightly capping.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, tempo is.

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Speaker 5: A really interesting thing because it's where there can be

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Speaker 5: an inefficiency in the market in the sense of I'll

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Speaker 5: use Vanderbilt same areas as an example.

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Speaker 1: They play in the.

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Speaker 5: Tournament last year, fifty six to fifty four is your final.

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Speaker 5: Because sam Arey's controlled the tempo. Vanderbilt couldn't generate easy shots,

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Speaker 5: they couldn't force turnovers, they couldn't get anything easy.

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Speaker 1: This year when they play in the Battle for Atlantis, I.

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Speaker 5: Think was the tournament, ninety six to seventy one, Vanderbilt

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Speaker 5: and they're all up in Saint Mary's guards.

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Speaker 1: Saint Mary's can't control.

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Speaker 5: The glass like they did the year before, and Vanday's

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Speaker 5: guards are pressuring it and they're able to generate shots

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Speaker 5: early on the shot clock and dictate that style. So

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Speaker 5: that line was three and a half for Vanderbilt and Vanderbilt.

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Speaker 5: People are catching on now, but that was something that

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Speaker 5: I felt like we had seen that matchup before, We'd

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Speaker 5: seen how Vanderbilt got better and how Saint Mary's didn't,

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Speaker 5: and I was more confident that Vanderbilt will be able

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Speaker 5: to set that tempo. And on the other side, when

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Speaker 5: it's two teams with similar tempos, right, how far extremes

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Speaker 5: can we go? Like Alabama USF will have been played

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Speaker 5: after this podcast comes out, but you've got Nato. It's

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Speaker 5: against Brian Hodgson, a coach who used to be under

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Speaker 5: his staff at Buffalo and Alabama. And the total for

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Speaker 5: this game is that like one to eighty or something insane.

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Speaker 5: So with these two teams playing in this comfortable environment,

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Speaker 5: does Alabama is the talent gap just just on display

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Speaker 5: in Alabama completely runs away? Or is South Florida comfortable,

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Speaker 5: you know, with two offenses just kind of playing five

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Speaker 5: out and rocking out and it kind of out and

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Speaker 5: there's value on the points with the Bulls. So I

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Speaker 5: think tempo is a really interesting thing of where can

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Speaker 5: there be a discrepancy in the market based on what

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Speaker 5: the metrics are factory in versus actually on the court.

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Speaker 5: Who can really emphasize, you know, the way they want

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Speaker 5: to play. The other thing that you mentioned is kind

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Speaker 5: of how teams travel.

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Speaker 4: We talk about it in college football. If you can

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Speaker 4: run the ball, control tempo, and then play good defense,

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Speaker 4: that travels whether you're playing neutral site or a true

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Speaker 4: away game. When it comes to college hoops, rebounding in bigs,

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Speaker 4: particularly in the spread out era, positionless era of basketball,

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Speaker 4: if you can dominate there and you can get extra

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Speaker 4: possessions offensive boards, and also keep opponents off the offensive glass.

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Speaker 4: That can be very valuable in away game situations, particularly

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Speaker 4: when you're catching points.

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Speaker 5: Right When I think about a bet, sometimes it's if

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Speaker 5: this game played one hundred times. You know, if I

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Speaker 5: think my cap they'd win sixty or seventy times. I'm

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Speaker 5: okay with the result. I'm okay what happens with the

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Speaker 5: three point variants in the free throw variance. But when

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Speaker 5: you look at some of these teams thrown out these

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Speaker 5: two big lineups even three big lineups, team like Florida

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Speaker 5: with Tommy how the three or Yaxel at the three

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Speaker 5: for Michigan, it's like, what can you really do?

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Speaker 1: Like you just look at the.

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Speaker 5: Personnel and it's Michigan is going to control the class

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Speaker 5: in this game, and I think that means they're going

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Speaker 5: to travel well to a lot of these teams that

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Speaker 5: can really just control the glass and just be bullies,

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Speaker 5: like Tennessee against Louisville last night, another example of that

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Speaker 5: just physically overwhelming it.

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Speaker 1: And of course, the whistle in college basketball.

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Speaker 5: Varies in leagues and as the season goes along, but

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Speaker 5: physical dominance is something that is you know there's less

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Speaker 5: variance to that because the end of the day, if

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Speaker 5: you're generating way better shots, you're going to win the game.

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Speaker 5: So I try to think about that, but but don't

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Speaker 5: want to rely on that too much and think, you know,

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Speaker 5: watch Alabama go beat Saint John's right in a game

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Speaker 5: where on paper, Alabama shouldn't be able to say John

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Speaker 5: should get twenty five offensive rebounds in that game, but

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Speaker 5: they didn't. So don't want to take shortcuts. But it's

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Speaker 5: definitely an angle that I'm looking to to focus in on.

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Speaker 4: I'm going to be duck to this point, and it's

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Speaker 4: the way that rosters are constructed right now with the

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Speaker 4: transfer portal. It's something that I keep an eye on.

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Speaker 4: You look at a lot of these top teams in

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Speaker 4: terms of their talent, both you know, professional players coming

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Speaker 4: in from Europe who have you know, the freshman status,

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Speaker 4: but really they've been playing at a high level for years.

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Speaker 4: You have the blue chip kids who are just more

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Speaker 4: prepared than they were twenty five years ago. In a

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Speaker 4: lot of ways, they're resembling AAU super teams. So they're

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Speaker 4: just thrown together and you see the chemistry come together

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Speaker 4: throughout the season and why I bring that up is

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Speaker 4: I think it's important to not solidify your opinions, particularly

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Speaker 4: on Power four teams earlier in the year, because that

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Speaker 4: can drastically change throughout the season. You can see teams

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Speaker 4: have January swoons. You've seen it with Yukon. You know

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Speaker 4: when they went back to back national championships, they kind

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Speaker 4: of took their foot off the accelerator in January a

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Speaker 4: little bit. Circle the Wagons got it together, played better

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Speaker 4: team basketball, and just got better and better all the

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Speaker 4: way to a national championship. So I think it's important

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Speaker 4: to not necessarily make your mind up on a team

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Speaker 4: the rest of the way based on how they're playing

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Speaker 4: in December or January, and then when it comes to

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Speaker 4: a Final four ceiling, I look at the continuity rankings

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Speaker 4: from Kenpom. You'll get last year's Final four. I realized

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Speaker 4: that it was all one seeds, but from a conninuity standpoint,

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Speaker 4: Houston was a Auburn was fortieth, Florida was forty second.

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Speaker 4: Now Duke was the outlier there because they had so

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Speaker 4: many freshmen, but two hundred and sixty eighth in the country.

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Speaker 4: For the most part, though, that continuity really helped them

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Speaker 4: in those grittier moments where they needed to come back.

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Speaker 4: Florida came back, it seemed like in every single game

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Speaker 4: during their championship run. Now this year, we have four

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Speaker 4: Ken Palm Top ten teams already with loads of continuity

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Speaker 4: Produce seventh, Yukon seventeenth, Iowa State twenty third, Houston forty first.

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Speaker 4: And when I think about putting together in my futures portfolio,

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Speaker 4: risk versus award, thinking about it in terms of like

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Speaker 4: investing high rate return, stable returns versus you know, some

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Speaker 4: of those wilder shots. I want to grab one of

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Speaker 4: those four teams, if not multiple teams, from that high

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Speaker 4: continuity bucket, because at least I know what I'm getting,

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Speaker 4: Whereas you know some of these teams. I think BYU

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Speaker 4: is a good example. Earlier in the year, it looked like,

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Speaker 4: you know, they certainly had the talent, the pieces weren't

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Speaker 4: always fitting together in terms of usage. Who was taking

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Speaker 4: more shots? This offense is going like this in the

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Speaker 4: last four games. It's a game I'm going to bring

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Speaker 4: up on Friday Night as well, but just someone to

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Speaker 4: consider about how teams change and evolve and the teams

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Speaker 4: that you basically now they're already fully baked at this

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Speaker 4: point in the season. All right, tok, I'm going to

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Speaker 4: kick it to you for one more thought in terms

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Speaker 4: of roster construction and maybe a team that you're underwhelmed

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Speaker 4: by thus far in the season.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the last thing that I'll add about

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Speaker 3: the roster construction. This is just concommonant to the landscape

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Speaker 3: of college basketball and the transfer portal at large. You

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Speaker 3: now have situations like what Illinois just did where they

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Speaker 3: signed Tony Billich from Croatia. He's going to show up

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Speaker 3: at semester and he's going to play, and someone else

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Speaker 3: is not going to play, and you're able to poach

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Speaker 3: these guys so routinely from other places, and so you

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Speaker 3: don't have these programs that develop over the course of time,

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Speaker 3: and so what ends up happening there's an element of

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Speaker 3: compression where instead of playing together for three or four

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Speaker 3: seasons and having one hundred and twenty five games together, well,

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Speaker 3: that sort of continuity period needs to be built over

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Speaker 3: twenty five games before you get into the later stretch

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Speaker 3: of the season. So that's a wise word tell the

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Speaker 3: listeners to just you can start to form opinions of

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Speaker 3: who these teams are. But these teams are going to

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Speaker 3: improve throughout the season, and they're going to gel and

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Speaker 3: play cohesively. And there are several teams that may look

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Speaker 3: a lot different come March first than what they do today.

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Speaker 3: So that's a really good point to make on roster construction.

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Speaker 3: Unimpressive team, I mean, my goodness, Loyola Chicago.

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Speaker 2: You talk about an.

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Speaker 3: NCAAA tournament team that in recent years was still ranked

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Speaker 3: at the top one hundred level and Ken Pom, and

375
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Speaker 3: these guys have fallen all the way to three h

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Speaker 3: ninth and Ken Palm. You can check the historical ratings

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Speaker 3: and they've dropped each week this season. They have home

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Speaker 3: losses against Mercyhurst, a bad Northern Illinois team, and most recently, Hey,

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Speaker 3: let me check my notes, Chicago State at home.

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Speaker 2: Are you kidding me? These guys stink.

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Speaker 3: They can't shoot, they don't get to the line, they

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Speaker 3: play slow now, they turn the ball over.

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Speaker 2: It's just really bad hoops right now. And Valentine's been

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Speaker 2: there for some time.

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Speaker 3: I don't know what he's doing with this program, but

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Speaker 3: Loyola Chicago should be on your fade.

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Speaker 4: List, Hi, Christian, Any thoughts on teams or perhaps the

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Speaker 4: gulf between the top ten, top fifteen teams and the

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Speaker 4: rest of college basketball.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to add on the idea of teams geling

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Speaker 1: and chemistry building as the season goes along. A quick side.

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Speaker 5: Rant of it bothers me when a win the way

393
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Speaker 5: wins and resumes age in the sense of let's say

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Speaker 5: TCU was able to hold on against Michigan, and then

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Speaker 5: they're like a fourteen lost Big Twelve team that win

396
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Speaker 5: against Michigan when Michigan is still figuring out how to

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Speaker 5: play basketball together, completely carries their water on Selection Sunday

398
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Speaker 5: and they get it over a team that they're just

399
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Speaker 5: not as good as. I really wish that there was

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Speaker 5: some type of setup in February where we got, you know,

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Speaker 5: some high majors or similar level mid major leagues.

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Speaker 1: Play a couple of non con games.

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Speaker 5: Let's get a check in February when your team is

404
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,719
Speaker 5: much closer to its final form, if not at its

405
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Speaker 5: final form, that's going to be completing in postseason play,

406
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Speaker 5: because I don't like how a win from November can

407
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Speaker 5: just yeah with brackbusters, bracketbusters.

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Speaker 2: It's like he just did that, bracketbusters.

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Speaker 1: Here we go.

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Speaker 2: I can't listen.

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Speaker 4: I don't think they trademarked it, and they did away

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Speaker 4: with it, so there's no reason you can't swoop in

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Speaker 4: and then sell it all over again as a brand

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Speaker 4: new thing. So yeah, I just I.

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Speaker 5: Wish there was a better way for those resumes to

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Speaker 5: to be accurate. And in terms of just the top

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Speaker 5: of the sport right now, there's just such incredible talent

418
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Speaker 5: right now. And I know everyone was sounding the alarms

419
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Speaker 5: after last year's All one Seeds and John Calipari's Arkansas

420
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Speaker 5: Razorbacks being our lovely double digit Cinderella. I do think

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Speaker 5: the best teams are the gap is widening, But at

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Speaker 5: the same time, it's the tournament. There's gonna be variance,

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Speaker 5: there's gonna be upsets, so I'm hoping we get that.

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Speaker 5: But at the same time, I'm looking at just some

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Speaker 5: of the talent, Like even if BYU has three players

426
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Speaker 5: that can score, and you know, the role players are

427
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Speaker 5: just really thin and you're just knocking out of the

428
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Speaker 5: bench at the end of the day, for a team

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Speaker 5: to just be a team with aj Demonster, Rob Wright

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Speaker 5: and Richie Sonders, it's kind of it feels like I'm

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Speaker 5: not comparing.

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Speaker 1: Them to the Big Three Heat in Miami.

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Speaker 5: But at the end of the day, it's like there's

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Speaker 5: only five players on the court, and if you have

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Speaker 5: three dudes that are the three most talented players in

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Speaker 5: the court.

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Speaker 1: Like you have a shot.

438
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,480
Speaker 4: All right. I mean for our first three man episode,

439
00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 4: I think this perfectly is working. We're moving the ball around.

440
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 4: Because my final point is I'm someone who does the pitching.

441
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:13,840
Speaker 4: In terms of like these are the teams you can

442
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 4: should consider to make it to the second weekend. From

443
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,680
Speaker 4: a true Cinderella perspective, I agree. You know, Arkansas team

444
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,399
Speaker 4: as a ten seed and name only what four or

445
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 4: five blue chip kids. They don't count. But when I

446
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 4: look at it right now, I'm a little bit worried

447
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 4: in terms of our Cinderella bench because you start obviously

448
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 4: you know the Zags don't count. You have Saint Mary's.

449
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 4: That's great, there kind of a national brand at this point.

450
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,119
Speaker 4: When you start going down the line the other teams

451
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 4: that should be there, you'll get Yale, right. Their best

452
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 4: win is a shootout win over Akron and the Paradise Jam.

453
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 4: They need to shoot forty seven percent from three in

454
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 4: that game and make all twenty one of their foul

455
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 4: shots to squeak that one out. I'm not saying they

456
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,760
Speaker 4: have to beat Alabama on December twenty ninth, but if

457
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,439
Speaker 4: they get boat raced in that game, I don't care

458
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 4: how many games they win in the IVY. It's going

459
00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,680
Speaker 4: to be tough to get excited about the Bulldogs making

460
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 4: a run, even though they've you know, sparked upsets in

461
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 4: March before. They have a coach that knows his way

462
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 4: around that tournament. The air comes out of the balloon

463
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 4: a little bit for me. If they get dog walks

464
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 4: by Bama Miami of Ohio, they're undefeated, but holy crap,

465
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,359
Speaker 4: is their schedule bad fourth worst in the entire sport.

466
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,920
Speaker 4: And I know that their backcourt can really shoot ipsorrow

467
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 4: Buyers and Suitor. I mean, this is a team that

468
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,200
Speaker 4: has the profile of years past, maybe ten years ago,

469
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 4: where it's like yef, they shoot fifty percent from three.

470
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 4: They could beat anybody. But this defense in front court

471
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:30,199
Speaker 4: is going to get rolled by quality opponents. I think

472
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 4: they're going to get killed on the glass if they

473
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 4: are up against a power conference opponent with a really

474
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,880
Speaker 4: nice front court, and that leaves us Belmont at least

475
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:39,680
Speaker 4: by my estimation in terms of a team that we

476
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 4: can get excited about at this point, but they've fattened

477
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 4: up on cupcakes throughout the non con Casey Alexander is

478
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 4: a great coach and he certainly knows that, you know,

479
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 4: design a dynamic offense. They are five out, They move

480
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 4: the ball seamlessly, They got you know, knockdown shooters everywhere.

481
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 4: They're top fifteen in every shooting metric that you'd want.

482
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 4: Tyler Lundblade, by the way, is a march madness Darling

483
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 4: waiting to happen, and they hold up inside. This is

484
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 4: the common theme. It seems like all of the programs,

485
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 4: not just the top twenty five teams, but anyone with

486
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 4: any money. They're going out and they're grabbing those kids

487
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 4: we're six hate or bigger, who are bouncy, who are athletic,

488
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 4: and it's not leaving much. There's no more Kenneth Faried's

489
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 4: playing for morehead State. So I think you know the

490
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 4: option here is that what they do is they pack

491
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 4: it all in and they say you gotta beat us

492
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,439
Speaker 4: from the perimeter. And for the majority of their schedule,

493
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 4: teams can out shoot Belmont. But if they play against

494
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 4: a team with three or four shooters. I think that

495
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:30,679
Speaker 4: an avalanche is going to hit them and they're going

496
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 4: to lose, and then I think we're sunk in terms

497
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,200
Speaker 4: of seeing you know, any Cinderellas.

498
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 2: Again, I'll pitch it.

499
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 1: To you, Christian.

500
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,439
Speaker 4: Is there a team that you feel, you know in

501
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 4: your bones right now that if everything goes right, they

502
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 4: can finally break through and give the people what they want,

503
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 4: which is you know, eleven, twelve, thirteen seed in the

504
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 4: Sweet sixteen A.

505
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 1: No one really comes to mind.

506
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 5: At the big major level, I'm monitoring Belmont McNeese and

507
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 5: in these A ten teams. I know, the A ten

508
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 5: used to be a league where we were used to

509
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,119
Speaker 5: seeing those multi bit but at this point I'm I'm

510
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 5: kind of considering those schools outside of Dayton.

511
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 1: Maybe your VCU a Cinderella in a sense. So we'll

512
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 1: be monitoring.

513
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 5: But in November and December, my focus is on just

514
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 5: getting a feel for a lot of these power conference teams,

515
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 5: and you know, as as the best of the mid

516
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 5: major start to emerge more clearly, then I start to

517
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 5: monitor those more.

518
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 4: How about you, Doug, It's Tulsa just so ASMR for Tulsa.

519
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 2: I like it it could be tall, so it could

520
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 2: be Colorado State.

521
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 3: I think Colorado State is a group that's improving in

522
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 3: this first year in the program for farup Esh as

523
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 3: head coach. Got a couple of good wins over South

524
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 3: Florida and Colorado, and this team will continue to improve

525
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 3: as the season comes. I mean exquisite three point shooting team,

526
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 3: really shooting in general. Colorado State just shoots the blazes

527
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 3: the nets off of it. So I think that's a

528
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 3: team that you know, depending on how many teams the

529
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 3: Mountain West gets in because you're reliant on them winning

530
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 3: the league tournament.

531
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 2: But if they don't and.

532
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 3: It's a multi bid league, or if they do and

533
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 3: they're the representative from the Mountain, If Colorado State shoots

534
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 3: in an NCAA tournament setting where you get a first

535
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 3: and second round matchup, that's a team that could really

536
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 3: make so always and a team that has been there before.

537
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 3: You know, had some chances in last year's tournament. I mean,

538
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 3: we all remember Queen hitting that shot for Maryland to

539
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 3: just bury the Rams. But I think Colorado State is

540
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 3: a supremely talented team. And I like teams that can

541
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 3: get hot at the right time and just blaze the nets.

542
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 5: I actually do have one major elly tadd u see

543
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 5: San Diego promoted within to totally new casting characters. But

544
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 5: they're still really good ten to one. They're only lost

545
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 5: at Nevada by six. They're a team that I've been

546
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 5: watching as well.

547
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 4: Before we get into some of our actual bets, let's

548
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 4: toss it over to Stucky for a word from our sponsor, DraftKings.

549
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550
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559
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Speaker 4: Thanks Duck. Don't miss out on any of the best

560
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561
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562
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563
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566
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573
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 4: the reason you're here, some best bets. We're gonna go

574
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 4: around the horn, give out our top plays from Thursday

575
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 4: and Friday. Gotta bear with us a little bit. We're

576
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 4: using some projections from Torvik, from Evan Mea. We're trying

577
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 4: to get as close as possible. We will always be

578
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 4: cognizant of this, try to give you a bit of

579
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 4: a range. A lot of these projections throughout the season,

580
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,879
Speaker 4: they get sharper as they go, particularly Tourvick I'm usually

581
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 4: shocked if it's off by more than a point and

582
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 4: a half. Duc getas started with a total, you're going

583
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 4: to a super popular game. Just kidding. Norfolk State Grambling

584
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 4: sitting in the one thirties.

585
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we're gonna look under in this matchup. If

586
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 3: it's one thirty four and a half or a higher

587
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 3: posted total, you'll see all of these plays that I

588
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 3: talk about come through on the Action Network app.

589
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 2: Just so long as the Lions get to where we

590
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 2: assume they're going to be.

591
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 3: But this will be a fun HBCU game at a

592
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 3: neutral featuring the three hundred and ninth and three hundred

593
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 3: and twenty first most efficient offenses in the country. That

594
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 3: means bad offense. Both these are defensive minded groups that

595
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 3: are play slow. They don't shoot from deep, they really

596
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 3: don't shoot foul shots well. But both of these teams

597
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 3: do play hard on defense, and they would be what

598
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 3: I would be considered to be scrappy teams. They being

599
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 3: Norfolk State and Grambling State, seems like a real, highly

600
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 3: contested battle that both these teams are going to want

601
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 3: to win. I like the fact that it's at a neutral,

602
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 3: but I think both these teams could struggle to get

603
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,479
Speaker 3: out of the fifties. I've got the winner of this

604
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 3: game having sixty sixty one points, so at one thirty

605
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 3: four and a half or so.

606
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 2: I like the under.

607
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 4: Christian talk me through Wisconsin Nova. Nova obviously has turned

608
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 4: things around quickly under Willard, but they want to play

609
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 4: very slow. Wisconsin would be happy to up the tempo,

610
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 4: allow their offense to kind of kickstart a run or two,

611
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 4: maybe at kill shot, and just pull away from Nova

612
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 4: before they even know what hit him. What do you

613
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 4: see between the Badgers and the Wildcats.

614
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 5: Nova's only two losses to top ten teams, but being

615
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 5: any one of their best wins at home against Pitt

616
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 5: and I look at Wisconsin, it just seems like a

617
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 5: really good by low on them. They just lost by

618
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 5: thirty at Nebraska. You know, a game like that can

619
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 5: get away from a high powered offense like Nebraska, who's

620
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 5: clearly a really good team at this point up to

621
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 5: twenty first and kempom obviously a huge way at Illinois.

622
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 5: This game's at Pfizer Forum in Milwaukee, so it's a

623
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 5: semi home spot. But I just think Wisconsin's a much

624
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 5: better team and Villanova's been great on the offensive lass

625
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 5: their eighteenth best nationally. Duke Brennan, the Grand Canyon transfer,

626
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 5: has been a monster, but Wisconsin's a really good defensive

627
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 5: rebind team.

628
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: Their top ten defensive rebounding. Nolan Winter's a beast.

629
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 5: I think he's a sneaky NBA guy, honestly, and I

630
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 5: think guys like Rap and Boyd and Blackwell and Roady

631
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 5: haven't really found their group yet. I think this is

632
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 5: the spot where they can in the half court just

633
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 5: be the more efficient offense and find a way to

634
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 5: get this one done. I expected to be around a

635
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 5: pick them or a small number for Wisconsin, and I

636
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 5: would be comfortable laying anything up to four.

637
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 2: All right, let's stick with you.

638
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 4: You mentioned, you know, growing up in Big East Country,

639
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 4: lots of games at the dunk. You like Providence over

640
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 4: Seaton the Hall at home.

641
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 5: I'm huge on Seaton all this year, so there won't

642
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 5: be many times I'm backing them, but beginning of conference play,

643
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 5: I really like to lean towards the home teams. A

644
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 5: lot of these We talked earlier in the show about

645
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 5: a lot of these rosters still kind of finding themselves

646
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 5: at this point in the season, and non conning in

647
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 5: conference are are kind of two different worlds, and a

648
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 5: Big East game in a rowdy environment, it's it's gonna

649
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 5: be tough for Sea and Hall, I think. And Sea

650
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 5: and Hall's been elite force and turnovers. They're top five

651
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,119
Speaker 5: nationally in that category. And Providence has a bunch of

652
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 5: different ball handlers, Jason Edwards being one of them in

653
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 5: their top fifty and taking care of the basketball. I

654
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 5: think this is one where I'm eyeing the under as well.

655
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 5: I think even though Providence has a quicker tempo, I

656
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 5: just think against Seat in Hall's defense, those possessions could

657
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 5: just be extended a bit. In Provinces getting six days

658
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 5: since that really tough double overtime loss at Butler, I

659
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 5: think it's a good get right spot to get come

660
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 5: home against a seen all team that I like a lot,

661
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 5: but still it's tough to get wins on the road

662
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 5: of the Big East, and I would lean with the

663
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 5: home team there.

664
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:46,959
Speaker 1: I think we'll get a good number all right.

665
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 4: Friday Night the Battle of Seattle Washington Husky Zo the

666
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 4: Big Ten traveling in the city to play Seattle. You

667
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 4: a lot of market respects for Seattle at home. They've

668
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 4: won eighty one percent straight up of their home game

669
00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 4: since twenty twenty one.

670
00:28:58,960 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 2: But this is different.

671
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 4: This is going to be the Huskies. It's only a

672
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 4: fifteen minute bus ride, their fans are going to be there,

673
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 4: and there's no overlooking the RedHawks in this spot. Bey

674
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 4: is Danny Sprinkle and his staff. They lost this game

675
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 4: last year. It was a really bad look on their

676
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 4: home floor, and I just think this is a usual

677
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 4: strength for Seattle at the low major level. When you

678
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 4: look at will Heimbrot in their front court six to seven,

679
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 4: a bouncy shot blocker. He handles the defense, Maldonado handles

680
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 4: the scoring. The problem here is Hannas Steinbach. I'm not

681
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 4: sure many people have watched him play. I know that

682
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 4: the Huskies they've made the Sweet sixteen. You know, really

683
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 4: in what sixteen years? It's been so long since they've

684
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 4: been relevant in college basketball. This is one of the

685
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 4: best players in the entire country. And the reason why

686
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 4: he's flying under the radar he had a bit of

687
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 4: an injury. You know, they had a rash of ankle

688
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 4: injuries across this entire roster, so he missed a few games.

689
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 4: But when he's on the floor, he's in the ninety

690
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 4: ninth percentile per Evan Mia. In terms of his offensive impact,

691
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,719
Speaker 4: He's an absolute demon on the offensive glass. And then

692
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 4: these two Big Ten games this season, he's having twenty

693
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 4: six points, thirteen boards, three assists on seventy five percent shooting.

694
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 4: I think he's going to dominate this game. I'd lay

695
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 4: up to four and a half. The projection's calling for

696
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 4: it to be about three. Any number around there. I

697
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 4: think you need to pounce on it because the Huskies

698
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 4: are five and two against the spread with Steinbach in

699
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 4: the starting lineup, including three straight covers.

700
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 3: All right back to you, Duck for another total. Yeah,

701
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 3: this one's Thursday as well. Louisiana, Lafayette and Southern miss

702
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 3: If this total is at one thirty seven or higher,

703
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 3: we're going to look at the under Louisiana cannot shoot

704
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 3: the ball. They are one of the absolute worst offensive

705
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 3: teams in the entire country three fifty seventh per Ken

706
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 3: Palm and adjusted offensive efficiency.

707
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 2: They play very slow.

708
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 3: They routinely work the possession clock down below five seconds

709
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 3: or less. They oftentimes settle for low percentage shots, and

710
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 3: they're turning the ball over on twenty two percent of

711
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 3: offensive possessions. Sub three hundred level in shooting from two

712
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: three and the foul line. You look at Southern Miss,

713
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,719
Speaker 3: they are playing way way slower than in prior seasons.

714
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 3: They're also a bad offensive team. They don't make three

715
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 3: point shots, they don't have any pace, and really outside

716
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 3: of Isaac Taveries and Hi League weeks, this team is

717
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 3: drag dead on offense. This is just another one where

718
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 3: I think the winning team will be in the low sixties,

719
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 3: and I don't think ULL breaks sixty in this one,

720
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 3: So I'm going to dive under on that one.

721
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 4: Friday night on your card. You have a natural rivalry

722
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 4: between North Alabama and Loyal Emeriormount out in California, one

723
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 4: of the weirder road trips between two low major schools.

724
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 4: What are your thoughts on this matchup? Bike? I mean,

725
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 4: Loyal Marormount's more than mid major, but in general, this

726
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 4: one is a tricky travel spot. Do you think the offense,

727
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 4: at least from North Alabama's going to be impacted?

728
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: I do.

729
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 3: LMU is one of my favorite under teams this season,

730
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 3: and they went under on Tuesday night with the UC

731
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 3: San Diego. These guys are just so defensively focused. They

732
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 3: really do have an underrated WCC defense. They defend without fouling.

733
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 3: They can test everything. You're not going to run on

734
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 3: these guys, and then offensively loyal and Marimount. They're really

735
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 3: void of any superstar scorers, and really, at times we've

736
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 3: seen this team just.

737
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 2: Really struggle to operate. There's very little movement.

738
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 3: They don't swing the ball to both sides, they don't

739
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 3: play inside out. They'll do some pick and roll, some

740
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 3: high ball screen stuff, but it's really, honestly a pretty

741
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:12,719
Speaker 3: bland offense and easy to defend against. I look at

742
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 3: North Alabama, a real slow paced team. They cannot shoot

743
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 3: the three and three of their last four games against

744
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 3: Division one opponents have landed one twenty eight right on

745
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 3: the nose. These are going to be two bland under

746
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 3: teams squaring off.

747
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: You know what to do.

748
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 3: Projections are at about one thirty nine and a half.

749
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 3: Here we're going under.

750
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 4: All right, let's head up I five about six hours

751
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 4: from LA to the Bay Area for your last play. Christian,

752
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 4: you're targeting Saint Mary's at home against another team with

753
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 4: the brutal road trip. Fau come across country.

754
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 5: I have a love hate relationship with Saint Mary's because

755
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 5: sometimes I just absolutely can't stand watching them. Sometimes I

756
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 5: love how gross it is, and by gross, I mean

757
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 5: slow you down so much.

758
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: It's big.

759
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 5: Harry wessel Is just trying to tap it out, get

760
00:32:58,360 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 5: super deepost positions.

761
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: But they just guard so well as a team.

762
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 5: And I look at Florida Atlantic, who under second year

763
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 5: coach John Jacis, they're fine, right, they're eight and three,

764
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 5: their one hundred and seventeenth in KEMPOUM. But in the

765
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 5: three tougher matchups they've played, you know, they go at Liberty,

766
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 5: you lose by twenty. Liberty is a slower paced team

767
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 5: half court kind of just cut the water off. George Mason,

768
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 5: another slower pace half court team. You lose seventy four

769
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,959
Speaker 5: to sixty five. Saint Bonaventure seventy to sixty five. So

770
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 5: in that game environment, I just don't see them being

771
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 5: able to score effectively. Kemp Pom's got at eighty to

772
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 5: sixty eight, I'd be looking at potentially a first half

773
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 5: under on Florida Atlantic, or just taking the gale.

774
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 1: Sometimes laying the gals with the big number gets a

775
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 1: little hairy because you're like, why can't any of these

776
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: guards shoot except for Mike Lewis. It's a little frustrating,

777
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 1: but I'm very.

778
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 5: Confident in their ability to pound the volunteerior and solow

779
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 5: this pace down and make Florida Atlantic uncomfortable in the

780
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 5: half court. Who their best player, by the way, maybe

781
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 5: their second best player, But Cane Carlisle, who was really

782
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 5: exciting as a freshman at Stanford, goes to Indiana where

783
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 5: you know a lot of guards went to die under

784
00:33:58,000 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 5: Mike Woodson.

785
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: He's a good player. But Sam Mary's. Can't you know

786
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 1: a guy like that who just really wants to get

787
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 1: his off the dribble. Sam Mary's is a nightmare to

788
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 1: play against.

789
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 4: I'm going to lay the big number on Friday night,

790
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 4: apleon Christian travel and to provo to take on BYU.

791
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,399
Speaker 4: It took a little time I mentioned at the top

792
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 4: for this BYU offense to come together. Last three home

793
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,439
Speaker 4: games against the low majors ninety five points per game,

794
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 4: they covered all three against cal Baptists U see Riverside Pacific.

795
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 4: Cal Baptist, by the way, a quality low major. So

796
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 4: to have a pair of no sweat covers when laying

797
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 4: twenty or more, I think that's impressive. DEBANSA is coming

798
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 4: into his own, by the way, four straight games with

799
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,320
Speaker 4: twenty two points or more. He's getting into the line consistently,

800
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 4: which I think this is already in dynamic offense, but

801
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:38,800
Speaker 4: it gives them even more stability, you know, a higher

802
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 4: avoidance level when it comes to droughts with him getting

803
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 4: to the charity stripe and Ablion Christian, if you look back,

804
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 4: they're predicated, whether it's this coaching staff or the previous

805
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 4: one because they promoted from within. It's all about turning

806
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 4: you over. They upset Shaka Smart and Ut. You know

807
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 4: it was four years ago in the NCAA tournament by

808
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 4: forcing so many turnovers.

809
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:58,479
Speaker 2: Opponents this year, by the way.

810
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,439
Speaker 4: Still struggling against AC turning it over on nineteen percent

811
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 4: of their possessions. So if you're slobby with it, you

812
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 4: can get yourself into a rock fight. And that's when

813
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 4: Abilene Christian is worth a play. The difficult part here

814
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 4: is that Byu is so buttoned up in that regard

815
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 4: fewer than ten turnovers per night. And when it comes

816
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 4: to Robert right the third, I trust this guy with

817
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 4: a ball in his hands. Despite a high usage rate

818
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 4: one point three turnovers per game, I feel confident that

819
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 4: they're going to be able to get this done and

820
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 4: score in the nineties again. And the last piece of

821
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 4: it is, I don't mind laying a big number. I

822
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 4: guess teams that can't shoot this, you know, Wildcats team stinks.

823
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 4: They're three hundred and twenty six in effective field goal percentage.

824
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 4: So I'm going to go ahead lay the big number.

825
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 4: I go all the way up to thirty. With the

826
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 4: Cougars here, I think they're hidding their stride. This is

827
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 4: an opportunity before you know, Christmas break and everything else,

828
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 4: for them to just get one more neck crack kind

829
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,399
Speaker 4: of game out of the way. Feel good about where

830
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 4: they're headed for, you know, the rest of the season

831
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 4: and particularly once they get into Big twelve play.

832
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 2: All right, it's signed for our Draft Kings.

833
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 4: Parlay before we get out of here. So we're going

834
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 4: to do a quick three leg parlay. Go to DraftKings

835
00:35:57,239 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 4: for the best prices. We're going to pick one of

836
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 4: our favorite you know picks individually put it all together.

837
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 4: We're going to start with Duck. I don't even know

838
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 4: if you mentioned this one yet. You see Irvine and

839
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,879
Speaker 4: talk about the ant eaters here, saving the best for last,

840
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 4: let's hear it.

841
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, And this is one where we have UC Irvine

842
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 2: projected as a small home dog. Could be two three

843
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 2: point hunderdogs.

844
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 3: Could see the eaters really frustrating Belmont. They've got a

845
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 3: lot of size in the posts that will create some

846
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 3: problems for what that this Casey Alexander offense wants to

847
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 3: do ucised defense. They defend well without fouling. They block

848
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 3: and alter a ton of shots. They force you into

849
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 3: bad shots and their opponents have missed a lot of them.

850
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 3: So for Belmont, you look at this wild cross country

851
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:45,359
Speaker 3: travel spot going out there to California. This ain't Evansville

852
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 3: or Lipscomb or Middle Tennessee that you're squaring up against

853
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 3: here and you have to travel. This could be a

854
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 3: real jet leg trouble spot here for Belmont. And so

855
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 3: for this fun parlay, I think we should throw UCI

856
00:36:58,320 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 3: on the money line on this one.

857
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 4: Christian, what is your favorite or a new addition that

858
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 4: you want to add to this DK parlay.

859
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 5: I'm gonna see with Wisconsin, I'll put them on the

860
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 5: money line just because we're bringing in other legs.

861
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 1: Played a little safer.

862
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 5: But I just like the byspot Villanova very well might

863
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 5: be the third best team in the Big East.

864
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 1: I just am not ready to crown them as that yet.

865
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 5: And as great as Bryce Lindsay's been as great, like

866
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 5: I said, Duke Brennan's been on the glass, I still

867
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 5: kind of my questions about you know, ask you shooting

868
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 5: forty one percent from deep is that real?

869
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 1: Tyler Perkins shooting forty one percent from deep? Is that real?

870
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 5: And a Kadian Lewis There's been some growing pains. Obviously,

871
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:37,280
Speaker 5: you see the talent there. But I just think Wisconsin

872
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 5: is a team that I'm looking to back right now

873
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 5: before people really think they're as good as either. I

874
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 5: think they're a clear tournament team, just not playing like

875
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 5: it really fully yet.

876
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 4: As I mentioned, I'm going to back Washington in the

877
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 4: Battle of the Seattle lay up to four and a

878
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 4: half in that one. It's a revenge spot. Steinbach will dominate,

879
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 4: Sprinkle covers his fourth straight game in a row, and

880
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 4: hopefully we get this to the window for you. That's

881
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 4: our DraftKings College Hoops parlay for the week. The crown

882
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 4: is yours. They'll do it. For today's episode of the

883
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 4: Big Bets on Campus podcast, presented by Draftking Sportsbook. A

884
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 4: special thanks to Duck and Christian for joining me. We're

885
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 4: going to be here every Wednesday the rest of the

886
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 4: way during college basketball season, so be sure to subscribe

887
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 4: to the podcast so you don't miss anything, and leave

888
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,720
Speaker 4: us a five star rating and review. The next episode,

889
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,240
Speaker 4: we're going to pick out our favorite five star review

890
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 4: and give you a future. You can go Nasmith, you

891
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,879
Speaker 4: can go Conference Final four, national title, whatever you want.

892
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 4: It's on us, so be sure to drop us that

893
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 4: five star rating interview, and if you're watching on YouTube,

894
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 4: please subscribe and comment. It helps in the algorithm to

895
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 4: spread the joy of Kalee Shops, gives us a chance

896
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,240
Speaker 4: to build a brand and reach a new audience. As always,

897
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 4: best of luck with all your bests and we'll catch

898
00:38:41,600 --> 00:39:00,320
Speaker 4: you here next time on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.

899
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

900
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Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler