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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Shad Millman and I am going to be

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Speaker 1: joined by professional better, my bestest, bestest friend in the world,

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, and I will tell you everybody this week

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Speaker 1: if I can be serious and intimate for a moment.

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Speaker 1: This week, we got a lesson in what it means

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Speaker 1: to be an insider. And I don't mean Adam Schefter insider.

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Speaker 1: I mean a Simon Hunter insider. I mean, honest to God,

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Speaker 1: what I mean is when you talk about betting with

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Speaker 1: your friends and when you're sitting on the couch, you know,

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Speaker 1: zooming with your buddies. These days, you want someone who

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Speaker 1: is in side the bedding industry, who knows what's going on,

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Speaker 1: who can explain why lines are moving, where money is

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Speaker 1: coming from, and where the edges have been the entire week.

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Speaker 1: That's honestly, that's the whole reason we launched the Action Network,

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Speaker 1: Like we just believe there's a market for this kind

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Speaker 1: of stuff, and Simon Hunter is that kind of insider.

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Speaker 1: And I'm going to get to that because the story

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Speaker 1: this past week in the NFL was about the Saints

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Speaker 1: Broncos game, and on Saturday, afternoon, all this news leaking

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Speaker 1: out about all three of the Broncos quarterbacks being ineligible

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Speaker 1: to play all of them right, So the line for

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Speaker 1: this game. They didn't cancel the game because God knows,

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Speaker 1: the NFL just wants to get the freak through December

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Speaker 1: and get into some kind of playoff bubble. So the

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Speaker 1: line for this game has been Saints minus five and

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Speaker 1: a half. When they reposted after the Broncos had no quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: it was fifteen and a half. Here's the good news

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Speaker 1: for the good guys, meaning Simon and I, we are

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Speaker 1: the good guys in this scenario. Simon had a hunch,

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Speaker 1: maybe he had a little bit more. In our list

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Speaker 1: of five picks for the Draft Kings Pro Football pick

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Speaker 1: Um National Championship Contest that we are in, Simon on

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Speaker 1: Wednesday afternoon included the Saints at minus five and a

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Speaker 1: half in our picks. So if we wanted to keep it,

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Speaker 1: it was locked. We could change it if we want

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Speaker 1: to change it, but as of Wednesday afternoon, it was locked.

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning. We'll get to Simon in a second, but

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Speaker 1: I want people to understand this because this is the

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Speaker 1: payoff for the whole story on Sunday morning, Simon and

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Speaker 1: I are texting about our picks, as we always do.

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Speaker 1: I asked him how we ended up with Saints minus

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Speaker 1: five and a half, which we had not had a

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Speaker 1: long conversation about his comment. His comment, and this is

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Speaker 1: where Simon is going to explain himself. I started hearing

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Speaker 1: things on Wednesday. Simon, welcome to your podcast. Please explain yourself,

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Speaker 1: Hey Chad, uh yeah, buddy. Um. People might get upset

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Speaker 1: about it, because I get it, man, of these people

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Speaker 1: that talk like they're pros aren't pros. I get it.

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Speaker 1: People want this to be fake. They don't want me

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Speaker 1: to be good at this, they don't want us winning.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, man, I know people who know, people who

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Speaker 1: have trusted opinions, who give out trusted facts. People kept

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Speaker 1: asking us why we like New England this week because

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Speaker 1: I had a guy who gave me a word that

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray's got a bump shoulder and they're not giving

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Speaker 1: out the info that his shoulder isn't right. What do

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Speaker 1: we see in that game? We saw Kyler Murray didn't

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Speaker 1: look right. New England didn't play a good game. We covered,

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Speaker 1: we won, We cash tickets the Broncos one was interesting.

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Speaker 1: He hit me up. It might have been Wednesday morning,

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Speaker 1: and it was like, uh, getting worried that the Broncos

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Speaker 1: have some COVID, that the Baltimore's COVID's worst sence getting

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Speaker 1: let on, and that shockingly, he said that the what

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Speaker 1: was it might have been, um, the forty Niners had

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Speaker 1: some COVID stuff. So I already bet At this time,

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Speaker 1: I already had bet Pittsburgh and the Saints, and I

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Speaker 1: had already bet the forty Niners. So I was I

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Speaker 1: got ship. Now I gotta buy out of the forty Niners,

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Speaker 1: and then I gotta put some more on Pittsburgh and

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Speaker 1: the Saints here and no work. I think the next yeah,

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Speaker 1: like the next day they might have canceled that Pittsburgh game,

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Speaker 1: or maybe it was Wednesday night they canceled it. So

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Speaker 1: I was like, all right, good call him that. And

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Speaker 1: then out of nowhere that schef their bomb of all

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Speaker 1: three qvs being sat for the Broncos, and I immediately

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Speaker 1: called up Bob, who was like the guy to gave

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Speaker 1: me input, and I was like, how did this dude? No,

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Speaker 1: that's insanity. I'm obviously all tested negative. It was only

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Speaker 1: one guy who came in the building and tested positive.

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Speaker 1: But exactly I don't know. I didn't know that the

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Speaker 1: QBS had it on Wednesday. I'm just going off these dudes,

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Speaker 1: who this is what they do. They network, they have connections,

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Speaker 1: and like, if I can get that little bit of

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Speaker 1: info and I trust these guys. Yeah, he was wrong

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Speaker 1: about the forty niners. They had no COVID issues. They dominated.

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Speaker 1: Like when it came Sunday and I saw they had

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Speaker 1: no COVID issues, I was cool with back in the

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Speaker 1: forty niners is gonna bet in their money line and

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Speaker 1: bet in the number again. But it's one of those

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Speaker 1: where these people are real. They're like, I know people

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Speaker 1: think it's all a myth, but it's these dudes are

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Speaker 1: locked in. They know people, and like I'm not I'm

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Speaker 1: not old enough to question these guys. Where like, I

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Speaker 1: respect these guys so highly that if they give me

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Speaker 1: these opinions, I have to trust these opinions. I can't.

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Speaker 1: I won't ever go back. I'm saying, well, what do

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Speaker 1: you know, it's Wednesday? How do you know this? It's

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Speaker 1: all right. This guy is giving me opinion. He's let

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Speaker 1: me do whatever I want with it. Either play it

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Speaker 1: or you don't, so it was a good day. Well

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Speaker 1: sign and listen. You are for real and that is

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Speaker 1: why people listen to this podcast. That's why credit self

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Speaker 1: at the end of the day, because I had a

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Speaker 1: hunch when you reached out to me summer of two

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Speaker 1: thousand nineteen to say, hey, let's chat, and then I

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Speaker 1: could tell you were for real and you've been on

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Speaker 1: the podcast ever since, so I somehow I should get

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Speaker 1: credit for this. But honestly, like, this is serious info.

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Speaker 1: This is serious insider info that impacts betting markets, and honestly,

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Speaker 1: folks like this is often how it's done. It's what

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Speaker 1: we're trying to translate, Like there are people trading in

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Speaker 1: this space. Okay, it is, it is. It is a

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Speaker 1: financial market. There are instruments that get that. We're information

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Speaker 1: is key and that is how markets move, and that's

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Speaker 1: how advantages are found. When we discussed these games, it

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Speaker 1: is not just based on hunches or projections, but actual knowledge.

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Speaker 1: Simon hunters professional and that's why he's joining us in

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Speaker 1: the pod every week and why we're empered into the

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Speaker 1: DraftKings Pro Football pick Up National Championship. So before we

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Speaker 1: get to the recap, before we do that. I do

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Speaker 1: want to remind people that we are bringing back the

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Speaker 1: cash fuel phrase that pays contest. From now through the

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Speaker 1: end of the season. We are giving a lucky listener

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Speaker 1: one dollars for every game we win each week. Boy,

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Speaker 1: someone's getting four hundred large this week, and we are

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Speaker 1: giving an equal amount to the charity of that winner's

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Speaker 1: choice to be eligible. Go review the podcast using the

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Speaker 1: phrase and appropriately the phrase is Simon says bet like

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Speaker 1: an insider, and if we like it and we randomly

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Speaker 1: choose it, you will win the money. Here's the beauty. Also,

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Speaker 1: if you want to keep up with what we are doing,

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Speaker 1: I'm begging you every pick we make. It's all available

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Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. It's free, it's award winning.

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Speaker 1: Go downloaded. Follow Simon Hunter in the app. Every single

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Speaker 1: pick we are making in the DraftKings contest, you can

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Speaker 1: follow there. You can see that this week we went

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Speaker 1: four and one. We boldly on when on Thursday morning

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Speaker 1: we boldly picked the Texans and then we were feeling

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Speaker 1: pretty good about the Texans. And I believe Simon, you

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Speaker 1: and I texted about four o'clock in the afternoon on

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Speaker 1: Thursday before the Washington Dallas game that we were gonna

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Speaker 1: lock in Dallas at two and a half Washington at

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Speaker 1: plus two and a half. So we won. We were

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Speaker 1: two and oh going into the weekend. You locked in

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Speaker 1: the Saints for us. The other two games were a

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Speaker 1: messive emotion on Sunday morning, you wanted the Paths, I didn't.

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Speaker 1: But because I trust you in your info, I I

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Speaker 1: went with it. You wanted the Panthers, I did not.

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Speaker 1: I wanted the Giants, you did not. You gave it

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Speaker 1: to me almost out of sympathy. That was a bummer.

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Speaker 1: The Panthers were the last team out. I take responsibility

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Speaker 1: for our loan loss. I heard about it on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: you know, when you told people to blame me. I

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Speaker 1: especially like the comment, uh, someone's at me, go drink

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Speaker 1: some more cucumber water your jackass. That was amazing. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that was nice. Right, Here's what I don't get. Here's

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Speaker 1: what I don't get. On Tuesday, we loved Minnesota and

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Speaker 1: we loved Arizona. Fine, we change. We changed out of

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Speaker 1: those because a variety of reasons, which Panthers I think

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Speaker 1: you have to explain to me a little bit. Arizona

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Speaker 1: get Cayler Murray issues Why did we change out of

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Speaker 1: Minnesota into Carolina? Why did you decide to like them? Uh,

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Speaker 1: it was honestly all about what happened during the week.

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Speaker 1: Teddy came back, so I regally thought it was gonna

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Speaker 1: be the backup playing in Minnesota, and I was like, well,

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Speaker 1: we're getting great value here. This is a backup QB

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Speaker 1: going on the road playing Minnesota. And then it came

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Speaker 1: out that Teddy was starting. And then the next day

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Speaker 1: it came out that Adam Feeling had COVID. So right

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Speaker 1: there we're talking about two major pieces. Adam Feeling has

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Speaker 1: been unbelievable this year for the Vikings, and Teddy is

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Speaker 1: just a solid quarterback who doesn't he doesn't trying to

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Speaker 1: do too much, so he's not going to hurt you

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Speaker 1: in the long run as that kild that kild p J.

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Speaker 1: Walker you had heard us if he was playing for Carolina.

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Speaker 1: So the Carolina and the contest, we were getting four

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Speaker 1: and a half, and with Teddy in there, I headed

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Speaker 1: a grade at three, so I thought we were getting

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Speaker 1: good value getting the four and a half um the Giants,

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Speaker 1: when I hated just because I had already bet against

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Speaker 1: it and I was trying to be too cute, like

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Speaker 1: I really wanted to fight you on it, but my

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Speaker 1: mind I had the number at six. It was sitting

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Speaker 1: at five and a half in the competition. I bet

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Speaker 1: the other side at six and a half, So I said,

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Speaker 1: you know what, this game could easily land on six

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Speaker 1: and I'll feel like a genius. So that was definitely

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Speaker 1: on me. I shouldn't have let you do because I

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Speaker 1: knew it was stinky. I think like reveloped. I was

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Speaker 1: like ninety eight percent of the money was on the spread,

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Speaker 1: and um, that was actually what was so funny. It's

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Speaker 1: like I got up, I don't even know, maybe it

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Speaker 1: was like three or four in the morning, Sunday morning,

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Speaker 1: and did all my bets and I twot it out.

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Speaker 1: It might have been like six thirty a list of

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Speaker 1: six teams that were all old teams favorites, catching over

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Speaker 1: eighty percent of the money at seventy percent of the money.

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Speaker 1: I forgot which it was, and I just said, it's

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Speaker 1: a great week to ride it with the books. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a good weekend here. And basically those plays

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Speaker 1: went six and out and this is one of these

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Speaker 1: weeks where I'm gonna go to the sports book Sunday morning,

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Speaker 1: and it's gonna be me and three other guys. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be dead. The public just got slaughtered. And as

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Speaker 1: a pro, these are the weeks, this is what we

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Speaker 1: do where it's it's rare you're gonna get six to

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Speaker 1: seven road favorites getting all that money on them. It

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Speaker 1: was really a perfect storm. I've just lined up just right.

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Speaker 1: The public was due for an absolute meltdown of a week,

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Speaker 1: and I likely, just like you, we'll talk about the

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Speaker 1: time you take the emotion out of it and you

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Speaker 1: bet these ugly teams, and this is a week where

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Speaker 1: it really paid dividends where I get it. People are

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Speaker 1: coming on like people messaging me how bad the Eagles are,

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Speaker 1: how bad any of these other teams are. I know,

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Speaker 1: I see how bad these teams are. That's what I

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Speaker 1: talked about. You you play the numbers, It's it's all

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Speaker 1: it is. I'm playing numbers. Are trying to play value

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Speaker 1: and find out where the numbers are. So in that

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Speaker 1: Eagles game, I had it at three. That game ended

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Speaker 1: at six, but if Doug Peterson had just kicked a

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Speaker 1: field goal. He went for it on fourth and two

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Speaker 1: on their side, and he threw up a pick Carson

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Speaker 1: Wentz that game would have landed three. I would have

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Speaker 1: felt like a genius because that's the exact number I

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Speaker 1: projected that game for US. Three. So when these things

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Speaker 1: are happening as the season goes on, that's that's how

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Speaker 1: I know to trust my system. Like we had a

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Speaker 1: down week a couple of weeks ago where or maybe

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Speaker 1: his last week one, one and four, and I was like,

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Speaker 1: all right, I could freak out over adjust and go

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Speaker 1: against what I believe in, or I could just keep

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Speaker 1: trusting myself and see how it goes. I'm sure enough. Yeah, man,

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Speaker 1: it was. It was such a good weekend that I

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Speaker 1: think I told you last night I couldn't fall a

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Speaker 1: sleep to one I am and my alarm went off

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Speaker 1: at three thirty to get up and start working again

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Speaker 1: for this week. And it's just like, oh god, I

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Speaker 1: feel like such a good week. You want to rest

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Speaker 1: near Laurels. But it's like, this is what I love.

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Speaker 1: It's it's a new challenge this week of trying to

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Speaker 1: win again. So that's that's the most fun about this job.

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Speaker 1: And like the life I live, it's every week it's

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Speaker 1: a new challenge that you're trying to overcome. So we're

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Speaker 1: back at it again, buddy, with some ugly lines. This week,

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Speaker 1: we are back at it. And by the way, that

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Speaker 1: tweet that you sent about the six uh, the six

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Speaker 1: road favorites and the money they were getting for some reason,

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Speaker 1: that didn't pop into my feet until like late Sunday.

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Speaker 1: If I had seen it early Sunday, I might not

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Speaker 1: have gone on the Giants. And like, I gotta say that,

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Speaker 1: I've made so many amateur mistakes this season. I feel

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Speaker 1: like I've lost my principles. And I used to add

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Speaker 1: a very sort of specific way what that I would

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Speaker 1: bet I look for short home underdogs. I would look

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Speaker 1: for games in which the public is over invested on

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Speaker 1: a road favorite, and like those would be sort of

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Speaker 1: the guiding lights for me. And I feel like this

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Speaker 1: year I am walking away from those making bad decisions.

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Speaker 1: I look for games where I felt like there was

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Speaker 1: a Bilow cell high situation. The Niners rams this week

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Speaker 1: was a perfect example. Why didn't we stay on that one?

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Speaker 1: Like we we had agreed on Thursday on Thanksgiving, like

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Speaker 1: we had agreed, we we liked the Niners and we

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Speaker 1: liked Atlanta. And then on Sunday, I know you were

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Speaker 1: afraid about Julio Jones being out for the for the Falcons,

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Speaker 1: but like, why don't we stick with the Niners. I

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Speaker 1: feel disgusted that we just sort of walked away from that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and it's usually my fault because I'm what I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to always do is just get the best of the

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Speaker 1: number in the contest, even sometimes if I don't love

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Speaker 1: the play, like I had a ton of money in Atlanta,

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Speaker 1: but the fact that Vegas was two and a half,

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Speaker 1: it made me think about it goes, well, I love

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Speaker 1: Atlantic because it's three three and a half. At two

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Speaker 1: and a half, it kind of makes you want to

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Speaker 1: take Vegas. And that's how they get you get us

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Speaker 1: in these competitions. They give us these lines, like everyone

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Speaker 1: in the world was taking, uh, the Rams because it

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Speaker 1: was six and a half instead of like I liked

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Speaker 1: it at seven, it was six and a half, so

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Speaker 1: a lot of people in contest took So we just

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Speaker 1: stayed away from the four nines. But yeah, it's it's

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Speaker 1: like you said, we overthink stuff because it comes today morning.

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Speaker 1: I go, well, am I being too smart here taking

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Speaker 1: these lines and doing these things in the competition because

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Speaker 1: the fort the New England when you hated you you Saturday,

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Speaker 1: you were just like, I hate, I hate, no, I

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Speaker 1: do not want to do it, and I said you,

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Speaker 1: I hated too. But the guys in the desert love it.

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Speaker 1: So I gotta trust these guys because this is what

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Speaker 1: they do. If if, if they're giving me good info,

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Speaker 1: we gotta trust it. So that was a brutal sweat.

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Speaker 1: But like the fact that we had two wins going

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Speaker 1: to the weekend, I was so confident we're going five

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Speaker 1: and now I really really believed in it. So it's

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Speaker 1: things a little for in one. But like I said,

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Speaker 1: we're back in the top fifty and we're only four

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Speaker 1: out of being in the top ten. So I gotta

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Speaker 1: just drink some good weeks everybody, and we're gonna be

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Speaker 1: back in that big money we are. You're right, we

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Speaker 1: are back in the top fifty on the year. On

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Speaker 1: the year, we are thirty four and twenty six for

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Speaker 1: a winning percentage of fifty six point seven percent. Again,

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Speaker 1: follow all of our picks by following Simon Hunter in

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Speaker 1: the Action Network Gap. Look look like you win it

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Speaker 1: a near fifty clip. You are making serious dollars. That's

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Speaker 1: all I can say that is a professional, that that

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Speaker 1: is better than professional. And we've had a lot of questions.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I won't get it to all the different

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Speaker 1: ones I get, but the biggest one to keep getting

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Speaker 1: his money management. Um, listen, people people do units. I

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Speaker 1: don't really bet that way. Uh, but if you are

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Speaker 1: doing units, like you start the year with thousand dollars,

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Speaker 1: you're breaking that up into a hundred units whatever you're doing. Yeah. Um,

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Speaker 1: I'm not a chaser, but if I have a down

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Speaker 1: week like we did last week, this week, I go

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Speaker 1: a lot bigger. And it's it's basically one of those

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Speaker 1: that you have to believe in yourself and you can't

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Speaker 1: just bet the same line the same amount of money

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Speaker 1: every week. You're just gonna be spinning your tires and mud.

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Speaker 1: It's so hard to get up money if you're just

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Speaker 1: consistently better in the same number. So there's people out

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Speaker 1: there if you have a down week, or if I've

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Speaker 1: a down week. I mean, I wouldn't do it personally

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Speaker 1: for yourself, but like I know that it's gonna work

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Speaker 1: it out for me. You start up in your beds

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Speaker 1: after down weeks. So people ask when when I really

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Speaker 1: start upping the money earlier year. It's probably usually Week

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Speaker 1: four or five. That's when, like I'm confident, like I

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Speaker 1: have a read on the season, I'll start up in

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Speaker 1: the money. But for people out there, you can't be

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Speaker 1: bet in the same exact dollar in a game you're

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Speaker 1: doing week one as you're doing a week thirteen. You

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Speaker 1: need to start trying to build an actual bank row.

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Speaker 1: You can't just be winning for that weekend. You need

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Speaker 1: to start trying to helping the money. So my advice people,

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Speaker 1: if you got smacked around this week, you don't listen

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Speaker 1: to the show or you don't follow us on Twitter

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Speaker 1: and you had a bad week, Yeah, don't go crazy

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Speaker 1: this week. And because I'm obviously coming off a great week,

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Speaker 1: so I should just by the numbers, have it down week.

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Speaker 1: But I've loved these lines again this week, so we're

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Speaker 1: gonna dive into it year. But it's another week. I'm

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Speaker 1: just seeing so much crazy value. All right, let's row.

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Speaker 1: There is no Thursday night game this week. There is

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Speaker 1: a Steelers Ravens game. Do we wanna talk about that

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Speaker 1: for a second. Just take the Steelers. It's a huge armory.

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Speaker 1: It's up the plus ten. The Ravens. But if they

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Speaker 1: have no Lamar, if they don't have JK. Dobbins, if

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Speaker 1: they know'an Mark Andrews, what are the Ravens having offense?

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Speaker 1: R G three r G three is terrible. So Steelers

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Speaker 1: are gonna be mad. They're mad about all this being

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Speaker 1: moved around them, affecting their season being affected. But I

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Speaker 1: still think they're gonna play the game. These players want

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Speaker 1: the paycheck and we need them to play it because

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Speaker 1: I was looking last week, we hit our over for

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Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh sports. Sports aren't gonna let you catch that

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Speaker 1: tick until sixteen games or all sixteen games are played.

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Speaker 1: And if this game is forfeited, even though the Steelers

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Speaker 1: gotta win, that voids the over ticket. So someone with

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Speaker 1: a vested interest in the Pittsburgh Steelers having over nine

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Speaker 1: and a half wins, I I really need this game

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Speaker 1: to be played. So taking the Steelers around, taking the

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Speaker 1: first half, and it's just one of those games where

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Speaker 1: I feel bad for Ravens fans and the players on

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Speaker 1: the Ravens. But this is a business. Teams are playing

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Speaker 1: games without quarterbacks. They're gonna get this game done. So

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be played, and we are in business brother

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Speaker 1: Jaguars kind of Vikings Minnesota Vikings? Are they eight and

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Speaker 1: a half nine and a half depending on the book.

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Speaker 1: My instinct on this game bets and money both coming

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Speaker 1: in on the Vikings. The Vikings did not look good.

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Speaker 1: They were missing feeling. I was very high on this

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Speaker 1: team going into the Cowboys game. Less high on this

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Speaker 1: team now. I felt like losing that game, that was

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Speaker 1: a big deal for them to stay away from me,

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Speaker 1: staying away, Yeah, I'll stay away with you. Um. Jaguars

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Speaker 1: have been covering really well here lately. They've been just

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Speaker 1: been backdoor king stay backdoor everyone, and and this is

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Speaker 1: where it runs out. I'll take Minnesota this week. I

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Speaker 1: hate that it's such a high number, and I hate

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Speaker 1: backing Kirk Cousins, but the Jags that they they've they've

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Speaker 1: played really well down the stretch here, but it has

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Speaker 1: to catch up them here and the Vikings they're due

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Speaker 1: for a big win. So I don't love it. We're

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Speaker 1: definitely up on the competition, but I'll take the Vikings here.

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Speaker 1: I'd be remiss if I didn't say, uh, we will

390
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:29,840
Speaker 1: have on the show our Hornet's Nest, which was the Falcons,

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Speaker 1: which we won our big balls better the week, which

392
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Speaker 1: was the Eagles, which we won, and you'll have your

393
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Speaker 1: survivor pick because we're out of our survivor pool together,

394
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Speaker 1: so you'll have your survivor pick to discuss it. So

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Speaker 1: heartbroken by that. It's so easy. We like, we couldn't

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Speaker 1: if we were still going, man, we would have taken

397
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Speaker 1: the Saints last week and we'll talk about coming up.

398
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Speaker 1: But we had saved the Chiefs just for this week,

399
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Speaker 1: and I saved them from my competition for this week.

400
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Speaker 1: So I'm heartbroken. I'm heartbroken we're not in anymore because

401
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 1: it's back to back easy weeks like late in the

402
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 1: season like this, it's so rare. You're heartbroken. You're heartbroken.

403
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 1: I wanted a million to buddy. All Right, the Browns

404
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 1: are visiting the Titans. This is a really interesting game.

405
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,400
Speaker 1: Money and bets coming in on the Titans right now.

406
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 1: They are. It opened it three and a half, it's

407
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Speaker 1: now at five and a half. DraftKings hasn't his five

408
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. WHOA that? That's you know what? What?

409
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 1: Hold on? Hold on? Are we walking into a hornet's

410
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 1: nest right now? No? We're not, do you do you

411
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 1: want to do you want to take the Titans? No,

412
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,360
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't want to. I honestly don't want

413
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Speaker 1: to take either side. I'm gonna end up betting the Titans. Um,

414
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Speaker 1: But yeah, the Browns can easily cover this number as

415
00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:01,400
Speaker 1: a dog against a terrible Titan secondary. But I'm not

416
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Speaker 1: putting money on Baker. Watching that Jags game last week,

417
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 1: he missed guys open in the end zone. Yeah, you

418
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 1: might have a good play here and there, but I'm

419
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Speaker 1: sure I can't do it with Baker, So I'll take

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Speaker 1: the Titans. But yeah's I'm not putting this in the competition.

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Speaker 1: Well why do you say, like you're like, by the way,

422
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Speaker 1: you don't have to bet it. You don't have to

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Speaker 1: bet every game. I like bet every game because I

424
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 1: play a system that's giving me number of values on

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Speaker 1: each game. So yeah, maybe this game, I'm only gonna

426
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Speaker 1: put five on it. But right, you don't have to

427
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: bet every game. But I'm a better that I do

428
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 1: bet every game because I only have sixteen weeks or

429
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 1: seventeen weeks out a year to make a lot of money.

430
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: So I don't judge you if you if you do basketball, baseball,

431
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 1: that stuff. Of course, pick three games a night and

432
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 1: like pick your spots. But with NFL, I picked my

433
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 1: spots for there's games I'm gonna load up on, or

434
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 1: there's first half bets I load up on compared to

435
00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 1: the total game or spread. But I like to play

436
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: every game. It's just fun having action on every game

437
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: because a lot of times like system will cash games.

438
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 1: I don't believe at all in but I bet it

439
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 1: just because it's saying there's good value there, and it's

440
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: just like, that's why I do it. Because computers are

441
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 1: smarter than humans. So I'm with you. You don't have

442
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 1: the better every game, but I like having action on

443
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 1: every game. They may be smarter, but they don't have

444
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 1: feelings like you and me. You know what I'm saying,

445
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 1: what's your number? What is your what is your what

446
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: is your Your? Cold Steel machine has the number for

447
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 1: the Titans and the Browns three and a half of

448
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: the Browns, so I thought like plus three and a

449
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 1: half would be a good value in the Browns. And

450
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 1: the fact that it is five and a half that's

451
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 1: what's making me think I probably should take the Titans here,

452
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 1: because maybe I'm not reading this right that it's shot

453
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: up this much because that's they don't move that number

454
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 1: for the public. They're moving that because the sharps are

455
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: hitting it. So obviously a sharp group has gotta read

456
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 1: on this Titans match up, and they're they're they're playing this.

457
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: This is this is a big number for two teams

458
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 1: that are both I mean, I don't know if the

459
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 1: Browns are eight and three or seven or three, but

460
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 1: they're they're playing well this year, so it's an interesting

461
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 1: game for sure. They're eight and three. The Lions are

462
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:18,640
Speaker 1: visiting the Bears. Boy, this Bears team is just an embarrassment.

463
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: I always love, you know, on a national game where

464
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,679
Speaker 1: they will always put up some kind of Deshaun Watson

465
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,239
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes stat and this week when the Bears were

466
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,719
Speaker 1: playing the Packers, it was how Deshaun Watson and Patrick

467
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 1: Mahomes are now one and two in lifetime QB rating

468
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: in the history of the NFL with a minimum of

469
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 1: past attempts. They have passed Aaron Rodgers, who was number one.

470
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 1: So we got Mitched Trubiskie throwing interceptions as if he

471
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 1: just don't care, and then too historically great quarterbacks who

472
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 1: were drafted after him I remind everybody the Bears traded

473
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: up one spot to draft Mitch Robinsky. You can't make

474
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 1: it up. And he literally played for one year at

475
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,959
Speaker 1: college the UNC Wow Momes was tearing it up for

476
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 1: two years and Watson titles national titles against Nick Saban.

477
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm I'm excited for the Browns fanans because

478
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 1: guess what, they're just gonna burn it all down, Like

479
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 1: at least you guys aren't gonna go ten and six,

480
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 1: make the playoffs with Nick Foles and just be spinning

481
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 1: your tires on a team that you're never gonna win

482
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: anything with. So yeah, but you know what, here's what's

483
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: gonna happen. The Bears have won five games, as my

484
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 1: fourteen year old son points out, uh, Mitch Robinski is

485
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,119
Speaker 1: three and oh now three and one as a starter,

486
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 1: but um this season, but they they're still gonna sneak

487
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 1: in like another win or two maybe. So they're gonna

488
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 1: end up six and ten, seven and nine and get

489
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 1: a middle of the first round pick if they're lucky,

490
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 1: which they won't even know what to do with. They'll

491
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: probably draft another fucking tight end and then we'll go

492
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 1: out and in a tight end so at least they'll

493
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: have four tight ends on the roster to go with

494
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,679
Speaker 1: cold Commit and Jimmy Graham. They won't have anybody who

495
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: can throw to him, they won't have anybody who can

496
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 1: protect the quarterback, they won't have anybody who can run

497
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: the ball. But at least they'll have a fifth round

498
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: receiver from Tulane they're excited about, and eight fucking tight

499
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 1: ends on the roster and like, you know, that'll be Chad. Whatever.

500
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: What's your take on this game? Uh? So this is

501
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: classic spot. Yeah, everyone's gonna be bet in Detroit because

502
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: the coach and jam just got fired. They should light

503
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 1: a fire under everyone's ass. The Bears suck. We all

504
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: know the Bear suck. No one's gonna betting the Bears

505
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: this week. So the fact that it's down to NINEUS three,

506
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: I'll be betting the Bears. And it's not enjoyable. But

507
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: with the lines of the Kenny Galady is still out,

508
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: the running backs still out with Swift, how can you

509
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 1: back the lines here? Stafford just looks hopeless with the

510
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 1: weapons around them. So I don't love it, it's painful

511
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: to do it, but I'll take the Bears minus three. Yeah,

512
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I agree with you. I don't know

513
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 1: if this is a contest game yet. I think we

514
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 1: gotta see where else we land if we find five

515
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 1: that we like better. And to be honest, um, the

516
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: next game up, which is the Raiders at the Jets

517
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 1: and the Jets plus seven and a half. Call me crazy,

518
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 1: Call me crazy, I could see this being the game

519
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: the Jets win. You're crazy, okay? Uh yeah? Taking the

520
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 1: Raiders after getting blown out, they got embarrassed back to

521
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 1: back road games. Usually a team after they get blown

522
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 1: in the first road game, they'll go and play the

523
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 1: second one a lot. Well, I don't know it's say tougher,

524
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 1: but they just laid down in that game. I felt

525
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 1: like every time they showed the Raiders they were fumbling

526
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 1: to Atlanta. So the Jets are just a bad team.

527
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 1: They're doing it again. Last week they hung the Jets

528
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 1: seven and a half. And it kind of sucked me

529
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 1: in against because I thought two was playing. So I

530
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 1: was like, okay, that's a good number against a rookie

531
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 1: on the road. Here it wasn't a good number. It's it.

532
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,479
Speaker 1: It's magic play and he smacked the Jets around. Fits

533
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: magic magic, magic, I'm seeing tons of film put up

534
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 1: with Sam Donald doing exactly what Carson went stead last night,

535
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 1: not seeing open open receivers downfield, like glaringly open receivers

536
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: streaking downfield, so high number seven and a half. I

537
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 1: know what they're trying to do. They're trying to scare

538
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 1: him off the Raiders. But I'll take the Raiders this week. No, yeah, wow,

539
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 1: I know I didn't see that. I saw this and thought,

540
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: of course, he's going to take the Jets. You don't

541
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: take the freaking Raiders as seven and a half point

542
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: favorites on the road. That's absurd. They're not good enough

543
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 1: to be seven and a favorites on the road. But

544
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 1: you know what, I'll tell you what. I'm looking at

545
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 1: the number right now. I'm looking at the percentages, and

546
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 1: it's true. The money, which is usually profession my money

547
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 1: is on the Raiders, right I think. I think their thing,

548
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: the same thing as me is. They're they're trying to

549
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: mess with their heads. Give us a seven and a

550
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: half because everything you said it's true, Home Dog seven

551
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: and a half. That's a great number to take the Jets.

552
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 1: But I got this progray to nine and a half.

553
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 1: So as long as the stays under ten, I'm happy

554
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: to take the Raiders here. We don't have any games

555
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: that we like so far, except for the Bears. We

556
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: have not walked into the hornets nest. We have not

557
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 1: found a big Ball's bet of the week. Saints on

558
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 1: the road at the Falcons three point favorites. That's what

559
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 1: the Saints are at DraftKings sharp money coming in in Atlanta.

560
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 1: This dropped from three and a half to three. You

561
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: got the bets coming in on the Saints and the

562
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Falcons. Line this line, buddy, dud, Dude, dude,

563
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: you know what I'm feeling right now? This this feels

564
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: like a hornet's nest. Do you want this to be

565
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 1: the one you want to take? The Falcons? I don't know.

566
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: I just want to take the Saints simply just because

567
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: we won so big on the Falcons last week. Like

568
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 1: I hate who's the we? Who's the we that won?

569
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: I ended up not betting the Falcons because you were

570
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 1: afraid of Julio Jones, so we didn't put him in

571
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: the pool. So if you want on the Falcons, then

572
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: you one on the Falcons. We we did not win anything.

573
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 1: We lost because I said let's take the Giants because

574
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: you didn't want to take the Falcons. So there's no

575
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 1: we here, bestie. I was speaking to the fans. Thank

576
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: you chat. The fans are more humble and smarter than you,

577
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: and they listen to my advice. So on Twitter, I

578
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: gave out, uh, those six players, and one of those

579
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 1: six places Atlanta, and I give out Atlanta's money line.

580
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: So the only person to blame is blame yourself. You're

581
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 1: so busy Sunday mornings running around literally, do you It's

582
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: like taking two the way. Let's see what the Sharp's

583
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: doing this morning. Let's let you hop on real quick,

584
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 1: see what the Simon is doing. Chad's too busy. Shows

585
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: a company listen on Sunday mornings. As as I've mentioned,

586
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: we right now have a show called Convinced Me that

587
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 1: is on Sunday mornings at eleven o'clock at Action Network

588
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: h Q eleven a m Easter. You guys are actually

589
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: giving out winners. It's me, It's it's Shawn Corner. Chris

590
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 1: Raybond and Matthew Friedman will try to convince me in

591
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: three different segments. The prop I should take, the side

592
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 1: I should take and the total I should take, and

593
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 1: they are crushing it. And the show, by the way,

594
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: like I can't even say how big it's getting over

595
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: the last three weeks, Like it is no joke. Of

596
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: the Twitter specific shows that are from really big media companies,

597
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 1: this one is beating all of them. I can't even

598
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: It's not even exaggeration, like it just is. And so

599
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 1: they keep giving me these winners, and yet somehow I

600
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 1: keep convincing myself to take Like they'll have like two

601
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: or three losers every week out of the nine picks,

602
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 1: I keep picking the losers. Just pick whatever Shawn gives.

603
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 1: You mean that dude's unreal with his props, He's amazing.

604
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: I hate props because I'm like, how can you project

605
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 1: out how a player is gonna be used in the

606
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 1: specific game? Like, how do you know their scheme? Dude,

607
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: he's so good man. I've been betting his prop bets

608
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 1: this year. He's money. They're all amazed, the Corner Freeman, Raybond,

609
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 1: They're all amazing. Anyway, So you're saying you're taking the

610
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: Saints here, But is that a contest play? I kind

611
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:33,959
Speaker 1: of wanted to be because I just I don't know.

612
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: I like, I like the Saints a lot that it's

613
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 1: minus three, even though, like you said, it scaring a

614
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 1: little bit of the the sharp's coming on the Falcons. But

615
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 1: I've backed the Falcons week one week and I back

616
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: and getting the flying week, and they just let me

617
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 1: down the flying week. So I'm gonna ride that train

618
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: and take the Saints to you, all right. I'm putting

619
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 1: it on the list. We'll see if we can find

620
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 1: it anything better. Bengals Dolphins. Dolphins are a living point

621
00:32:56,000 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 1: favorites at home. I don't know, man, I have to

622
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 1: take the Bengals, but yeah, it sucks. Um, I don't know.

623
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: It's just a situational play. A home dog this big.

624
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: I had this line at eight. Not a home dog,

625
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: it's it's Bengals at Miami. Oh oh wow. So I

626
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: had this written down as Bengals at home. Um, still

627
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: a big number. But I guess, yeah, you take Miami

628
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: just because they're at home. Bengals covered last week. That

629
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 1: was the first game of the new QB. That New

630
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 1: QB really didn't do much, but that did feel like

631
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 1: like that did feel like that's the game when you

632
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 1: take the Bengals. Clearly we didn't and we I mean,

633
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: I but like the bloom is off the rose, you

634
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 1: go back down in Miami and you get the snot

635
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 1: beating out of you. Yeah, Like I would have loved

636
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 1: this for the Bengals, ipose Miami back to back road games,

637
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 1: But like you just said, the fact that Miami's home,

638
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 1: I'll have to go like redo because I put the

639
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 1: same my system as if they're on the road. Um,

640
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: I'm get said it would it would take three points away.

641
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, this is probably a good number with Miami

642
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 1: as long as it stays under twelve. But I hate

643
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 1: putting in this big of a number in our competition.

644
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 1: But of all the games we're looking at right now,

645
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 1: this is this is a pretty good one that fits

646
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 1: me at home with that defense against the Bengals. Well,

647
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 1: here's something else to think about, Simon. We still need

648
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 1: to use one more by right, it could be could

649
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 1: be a bye week. I mean that's I told you,

650
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:29,839
Speaker 1: That's that's the call you're gonna have to make because

651
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: you're gonna come to me Sunday morning. And you know

652
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 1: the deal, buddy, I'm I'm always firing away. I'm always

653
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,320
Speaker 1: confident comes Sunday. So like we don't love these games

654
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: right now, but come Sunday, like I'm gonna have reads

655
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 1: on a lot of these games. I'm really gonna love

656
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 1: them so and stuff to say right now. But yeah,

657
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 1: if Chad wants to pull the card and said, no,

658
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: we're doing it, we'll use the bye week. Listen. Sure,

659
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 1: as sure as the sun will rise somewhere around the world,

660
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: Simon will text me on Sunday morning, I love our picks,

661
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: brother always. All right, well, let's put a pin in

662
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 1: this one then, Colts minus three visiting the Houston Texans.

663
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 1: A lot of money coming on the Colts. And this

664
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 1: does feel like a Bilow Cell high right, like the

665
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 1: Colts looking great on Thanksgiving, Deshaun Watson feeling great. You

666
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,319
Speaker 1: got the Colts getting beat up at home in a

667
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 1: spot that that looked like they were right for getting

668
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 1: beat up. So of course you're gonna play the Colts

669
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 1: like in a Division game on the road. We've got

670
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 1: Frank Rack against Romeo Cornell, right, and that Colts when

671
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 1: I liked it earlier in the week, and then all

672
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: of the COVID stuff came with, the injuries came out.

673
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: They were just missing too many starters. And now that

674
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 1: Texans have Wolf Fuller going out for p d S

675
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 1: and they're losing a guy in their secondary for p

676
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 1: d S. So Texans, I was a great win by

677
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:56,919
Speaker 1: then with Thanksgiving, happy form culture just got smacked around

678
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 1: at home. Now going on the road, it's it is

679
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 1: brutal back and rivers. But like you just said, the

680
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 1: coaching matchups so glaring here with Romo Carmel and minus

681
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 1: three with the Colts. I'll take it. I know it's

682
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 1: gonna be the public side of the public one sometimes,

683
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 1: so I would like to put this one in the

684
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 1: minus three. I agree with you, agree with you. We

685
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 1: have not walked into the Hornets nest. We have not

686
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:24,479
Speaker 1: had our big balls better the week, but we are

687
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 1: walking into the late game window with a doozy Rams

688
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 1: three point favorites against the Cardinals. The early line, the

689
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 1: look aheadline on this Cardinals minus one. Now it's Rams

690
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 1: minus three with money and bets coming in on the Rams.

691
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 1: Is this are we? Is it? It's the big balls

692
00:36:56,640 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: bet of the week? Is it? Because because I felt

693
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 1: like it was, I had a feeling, Yeah, you have

694
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 1: to take this one. This is a little word somewhere

695
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 1: like I got word on Friday or Saturday, that Kyler

696
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: shoulder still wasn't right. I was gonna have to keep

697
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 1: on checking in on that, because if he can't throw

698
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: it downfield, this Cardinal's offense is no good. They're just

699
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 1: gonna stack the line and keep everything in tight, just

700
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: like New England did. Were New engl wouldn't let him

701
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 1: get outside, the wouldn't let him scramble. And the Rams

702
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 1: are just one of these teams. They're hard to get

703
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: a read on. Their defense can play so well some weeks,

704
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:35,399
Speaker 1: other weeks they take off golf. He is so hot

705
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,479
Speaker 1: and cold, and he's been a turnover machine of late.

706
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 1: So like you just said, the public is coming all

707
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: over the Rams, and people are gonna leave the Cardinals

708
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 1: dead from now. They've lost two in a row, um

709
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 1: both by three, So my mind, we're getting plus three

710
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 1: a hum dog divisional happy to take the Cardinals here

711
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 1: in the big balls better the week makes all the

712
00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: sense in the world. Everything that I talked about in

713
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 1: the beginning, where like I look for short home dogs,

714
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: I look for teams that are have a lack of

715
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 1: luster in terms of public perception, Teams where the preponderance

716
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 1: of the bets meaning the public is coming in on

717
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 1: the favorite, like the Cardinals are in the middle of

718
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 1: that sweet spot right now. Uh, big balls better the week,

719
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals. I want to put the I want to

720
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:31,919
Speaker 1: put the bets in this week just for that one,

721
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 1: just because of that one. Yea, I love it so much. Uh.

722
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: The New York Giants are now ten point underdogs on

723
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 1: the road at Seattle. Like, look, Daniel Jones not playing that.

724
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 1: You can't really you can't bet on this game. Yeah,

725
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: I don't know what the read is like, this will

726
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 1: be one of those I'll just tease. I'll just tease

727
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 1: Seattle down like rare game. I probably one in the

728
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 1: bed is straight. Um, have no faith in the Giant

729
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 1: without Daniel Jones. Even though he has been great, he

730
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: still is better than Colt McCoy. Col McCoy came in

731
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 1: that game and was just a knee bit. It was

732
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 1: That's why I like people say NFL is fixed. That

733
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: felt like such a fixed game where he comes in.

734
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: I think they are up six, so we're coming at

735
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 1: this point, they go down, they kick that field, going

736
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 1: to go all right that this BET's dead. They're definitely

737
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 1: gonna go down the field now, and score touchdown ps P.

738
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 1: I called the the end zone and they cover that number.

739
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 1: So Giants, I'm with you. You can't really bet them,

740
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna take the seattle and I'll just tease

741
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 1: him down, so we'll stay away from this number. There

742
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 1: is something about Colton McCoy that I do love. Many

743
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 1: many years ago, when I was at ESPN, the magazine UH,

744
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 1: I was a senior editor and I was given an

745
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 1: assignment by our editor in chief to reimagine what the

746
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 1: front of the book, that's what you called like the

747
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: first twenty pages of the magazine looked like, right, and

748
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 1: so me and another editor UH when this sort of

749
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 1: complete and total boon doggle, like this is a this

750
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 1: is what used to happen in the magazine world when

751
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,400
Speaker 1: there was real money and publishing. And we went in

752
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 1: this boondoggle and just found like creative people are people

753
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 1: we wanted to talk to and said, we're reimagining what

754
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 1: the magazine looks like. Can we spend twenty minutes with

755
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:23,720
Speaker 1: you and get your take on how you consume media,

756
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: what's interesting to use. We met with like improv comedy troops,

757
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 1: and we met with high scale advertising agencies and we

758
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 1: also went to Austin and sat with Colton McCoy and

759
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 1: another player whose name I forgot, and Colton McCoy, like

760
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 1: at the time, was the superstar, you know, myth making quarterback,

761
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 1: and he was just a great guy. He was just

762
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,720
Speaker 1: lovely and gave us all this insight into how athletes

763
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:49,319
Speaker 1: think because we were thinking did we want to turn

764
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 1: part of it over to athletes? And he was amazing.

765
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 1: Ever since then, I have rooted for Colton McCoy and UM,

766
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:57,839
Speaker 1: I also feel like, just from a betting point of view,

767
00:40:57,880 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 1: there are times when you get that veteran quarterback in

768
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 1: the second week, they've had a chance to prep, and

769
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 1: there are sort of the um the expectations are lower.

770
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:11,439
Speaker 1: So I might not hate betting on the Giants here,

771
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 1: but it doesn't make me comfortable. But I don't hate

772
00:41:13,960 --> 00:41:16,800
Speaker 1: it as much as you do. Yeah, it's just too scary,

773
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,320
Speaker 1: and I'm with you and when I when you whenever

774
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 1: we said Cole McCoy, I just think of Texas like

775
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,800
Speaker 1: that was such a unique error. Were not that everyone's

776
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 1: not locked in the college football like where you were

777
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 1: used to, but like he was there for all four

778
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 1: years after Vince Young and he was still a great

779
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 1: I mean it wasn't great like Bench Young was great,

780
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 1: but he was a great quarterback in the sense that

781
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 1: people remember his name, like you just said. And it's

782
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 1: been over ten years and still in the league, so exactly,

783
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 1: he's gonna get the full week of reps. That's why

784
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 1: I also don't trust this number. It's too scary to

785
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 1: take at the time. All Right, we still haven't walked

786
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 1: into the Hornet's Nest. You haven't talked about your survivor.

787
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 1: But meanwhile, we got the uh, we got the Eagles,

788
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:59,840
Speaker 1: who are just dreadful trash. There's no way the Hornets

789
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: Nest is gonna be betting the Eagles at plus nine

790
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 1: against the Packers in Green Bay in a late afternoon game.

791
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 1: There is no way. This team is just terrible, Like

792
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 1: they are awful. They're awful, But no, it's not a

793
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 1: Hornet's Nests game that's coming up. Love it, Love the Eagles.

794
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 1: You are disgusting, But it's just too big of a number.

795
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 1: Green Bay is not a good defense. I know they

796
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 1: have guys back in the secondary. Eagles are terrible. I'm

797
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 1: shocked as many people are even betting on the Eagles um,

798
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 1: but yeah, it's a big number. Uh, not gonna make

799
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: anyone pick the Eagles out. That's why I'm not gonna

800
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 1: make it any more unique bets because this is one

801
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: of those I'm just gonna take by myself and just

802
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 1: crying the corner. I have to take this number. It's

803
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 1: too big. It should be seven, it's nine. Happy to

804
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: take the nine. This is disgusting. You are a disgusting

805
00:42:56,560 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 1: human being. You. It's like, I can't not believe you

806
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 1: would do this after what you did to yourself last night.

807
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 1: I saw you on the the Eagles money line and

808
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 1: the Eagles to cover at six, Like you deserve any

809
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 1: misery you get if you're gonna it's it's sick name,

810
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: but yeah, it's uh yeah. Meanwhile, people like people keep

811
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: saying you're betting Eagles just because you're a fan. I

812
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 1: bet against the Eagles constantly. That's not it. We're just

813
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 1: an awful team this year, so we're getting a lot

814
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:24,879
Speaker 1: of value on our lines. That's why I keep betting

815
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Let me remind people right now, this is

816
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 1: why we're heading into a bye week right now. The

817
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 1: teams that we would like that we like Bears minus

818
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: three Saints minus three, Miami minus eleven, um Cards plus three,

819
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 1: Eagles plus nine and a half Colts minus three. These

820
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 1: teams are all in various ways can make you sick.

821
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 1: That sounds like a fun weekend to me. Chat, I

822
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know what you're talking about. That's

823
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: a fun weekend. I'm like, I might not even watch

824
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: football this weekend. That's how disgusting get all looks. It

825
00:43:58,080 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 1: might be the first weekend where I say to my wife,

826
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 1: I don't have to work on Sunday after we do,

827
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:06,399
Speaker 1: convince me. At eleven o'clock on at Action Network, HQ,

828
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 1: Patriots visiting the Chargers. Boy, if the Chargers can't find

829
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 1: ways to to sneak a loss out of a win

830
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 1: as far as the battles are concerned, that was something

831
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 1: this past weekend. Well, the worst worst display of coaching

832
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 1: you'll ever see. If you you just watch the replay

833
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 1: of the final minute. There's plenty people that tweeted out

834
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 1: the full video. Awful, awful, awful coaching. And this is

835
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,919
Speaker 1: easy our Whnet's Nest game of the week walking into

836
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:40,959
Speaker 1: the Hornets Nest. I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest.

837
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 1: All right now, be my companion. Newland Patriots just alone

838
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:47,800
Speaker 1: in the coaching mismatch. This game should have been Patriots

839
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 1: minus three. I know Cam is not good and he

840
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,879
Speaker 1: didn't play well at all. It saw hilarious that it's

841
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 1: the first time in like thirty years that too in

842
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:58,880
Speaker 1: the same week two quarterbacks through f under a hundred

843
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 1: yards and one. It was Cam Newton and tysom Hill.

844
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 1: So back again fading the Chargers. I get why people

845
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 1: might be taking them here, because they got a good quarterback.

846
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,359
Speaker 1: You can throw the ball around, but you gotta think

847
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:17,359
Speaker 1: Belichick scheming up against a rookie with just a great

848
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 1: secondary that Neyone still has. Its The only good thing

849
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 1: on their team is that secondary. I gotta take New

850
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:24,319
Speaker 1: England here. I know the lines moved down, it's down

851
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:26,839
Speaker 1: to minus one in some books. Still like the value

852
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 1: on New England. So I'm happy to take this one

853
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 1: and put in our competition. Oh my god, I can't.

854
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 1: Like I was sick enough watching the Paths and like

855
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 1: just wanted to curse you so much that we that

856
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 1: we were on the paths against the Cardinals in that

857
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: game and in that when he kicked God, when he

858
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 1: kicked that field goal. I don't know if I can

859
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 1: go through it again. Ken is really bad, bad bad.

860
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 1: I think you might be hurt, Like who knows his

861
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 1: body is just breaking down. But this is more of

862
00:45:56,719 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 1: a bet on Belichick than it is on Camp. All right,

863
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 1: Sunday Night, Broncos Chiefs. Broncos are fourteen point underdogs. I

864
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 1: will never bet the Broncos in this spot. Give me

865
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 1: the Chiefs minus twenty. Yeah, this is a pro game. Like, uh,

866
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 1: I'll probably have to end up taking the Broncos, but

867
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it just because it's true Lock.

868
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 1: I'm done done putting money on Drew Lock. We've said

869
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: that that's good for him. Against that Miami that was amazing.

870
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 1: But Chiefs Chiefs, Chiefs minus fourteen. Maybe they'll let him

871
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 1: back dorm because we saw the Chiefs in Stampa Bay.

872
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 1: They simply stopped trying like they weren't going to run

873
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: it up on them. They could do that here, but

874
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 1: it's the visional game. I like the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.

875
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 1: If you just go through his career, he's owned the Broncos,

876
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: especially at covering big numbers. So I'm with that. We

877
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 1: can take the Chiefs Uh, this next game is really interesting.

878
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 1: It's the it's the first Monday night game. There's two

879
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:57,839
Speaker 1: Monday Night Ers. Washington at Pittsburgh. Washington is a ten

880
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 1: point dog. This is a pro is Joe's game right now,

881
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 1: And before I even looked at the odds and percentages

882
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,959
Speaker 1: and again, get everything I'm talking about. You can see

883
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 1: what I'm seeing. Uh, go to Action network dot com

884
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 1: download the Action Network gap. Washington is a ten point

885
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 1: underdog of the bets coming in on Pittsburgh, of the

886
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 1: money coming in on Washington. I like Washington here. I

887
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 1: think they might be the best defensive line the Steelers

888
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:30,280
Speaker 1: have faced. And and that offensive line for the Steelers

889
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 1: at times this year has has struggled and Ben has

890
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 1: looked like he's in trouble a couple of times. So

891
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 1: I like Washington in this spot. Me too, and pure

892
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 1: value bet. I'll take Washington's money line here. The fact

893
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh explaining an early divisional game against the Ravens,

894
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 1: we don't even know it's gonna go. Well, we're gonna

895
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:52,919
Speaker 1: assume it's gonna be a battle, and they're gonna beat

896
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:54,359
Speaker 1: the crap out of each other. That's what these two

897
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 1: teams do, so we know are it is going to

898
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 1: defeat it in that season. Just feels like such a

899
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 1: letdown game in between spot where they won't get up

900
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,719
Speaker 1: for the game. How do you not take Washington here?

901
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,440
Speaker 1: Like we already hate ourselves for doing it, because obviously

902
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:12,920
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh unbelievable in Washington's and the worst division of football.

903
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 1: But like you just said, that's a big number for

904
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 1: a team coming in a short week, So happy to

905
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:22,760
Speaker 1: take Washington with with that number. Also, also, the market

906
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 1: has not adjusted to Alex Smith professional football quarterback. Your

907
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 1: guy p F QB. That's what I call. He's just

908
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 1: a professional. He that's just what he is. He knows

909
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 1: how to play quarterback in the National Football League. This

910
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 1: is a bank roll game for me. Oh no, is

911
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: there really dude? It's Alex Smith. Please please don't do it.

912
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 1: Give me Alex Smith plus ten. I don't mind the

913
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:56,720
Speaker 1: money line either. Uh yeah, it's good value. It's totally

914
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:58,359
Speaker 1: good value. The Bills are two and a half point

915
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:04,239
Speaker 1: favorites at the Niners on Monday Night. I like the

916
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 1: Liners here. This feels like such a sharp game. I

917
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:10,919
Speaker 1: hate that they moved like everything's going to California. They're

918
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:14,759
Speaker 1: making these guys go play in the Arizona. Don't like that,

919
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 1: Like it's they got their own life's going on now

920
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,520
Speaker 1: they can't be around their family. I'm not a fan

921
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 1: of this whole situation with them, But how do we

922
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 1: not fade the Bills after that win? Big win at home?

923
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 1: Now coming on the road usually a let down spot.

924
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 1: And I know it's scared that the forty niners just

925
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:34,759
Speaker 1: had that amazing win. But what we saw in the

926
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 1: game was they just played good team defense. And what

927
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 1: we know about the Bills is they can get sloppy

928
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:42,799
Speaker 1: with the ball and Josh Allen can try to make

929
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: play sometimes I just aren't there. So in the game

930
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 1: that should get schemed up that it's a good number.

931
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:49,360
Speaker 1: With the forty nine, I think you can wait on

932
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 1: this number and let the public keep coming in on

933
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 1: the Bills. You might be able to get San fran

934
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:55,720
Speaker 1: or the forty I should say up to uh plus

935
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 1: three and a half, so we can wait on that one.

936
00:49:57,920 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 1: Hopefully by the time they locked the numbers in, this

937
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 1: is a three and a half. Yeah, I agree with you.

938
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:06,760
Speaker 1: I feel like, um, the Bills are a team that

939
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 1: can beat teams that make mistakes, but the Niners are

940
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 1: not a mistake prone team. They're just not Like they're

941
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:20,320
Speaker 1: so well coached that and and the things they rely

942
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 1: on are so steeped in the fundamentals. They're not gimmicky. Um,

943
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 1: it's it's amazingly impressive that this is a five and

944
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:33,320
Speaker 1: six team crazy season given the injuries they've had. Uh,

945
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 1: like the with the Bills, They're they're gonna be my

946
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 1: favorite teams. You're going to playoffs that on any given

947
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 1: Sunday if everything's clicking right, especially with their D line,

948
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 1: that they just need their defense struck because I really

949
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 1: do think any given game, Josh Allen can have a

950
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:51,880
Speaker 1: special game, and they're one of these teams I want

951
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,319
Speaker 1: it's all put together right. They can make a run.

952
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 1: They can they like people don't think they can match

953
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 1: up against the Chiefs on paper. They have certain weapons

954
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:02,600
Speaker 1: on defense that could shut down the Chiefs. But right

955
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:04,640
Speaker 1: now they're just not playing good and their defense just

956
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 1: had like that was their best game of the year

957
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 1: by far against the Chargers. And maybe I'm reading it

958
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 1: wrong and maybe they have gotten it right and they're

959
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:16,040
Speaker 1: gonna play the Niners like really well, But to me,

960
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 1: this is uh. This just screams of a joke, a

961
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:21,839
Speaker 1: pro versus Joe's game, and the public will just love

962
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 1: this Bills and numb, especially the fact that's under the

963
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 1: three and they're gonna come in on and so I

964
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:28,760
Speaker 1: have to take the four Niners here. Producer and Buffalo

965
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:34,399
Speaker 1: Bills fan in Western New York native Matt Mitchell Uh

966
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 1: has weighed in that the Buffalo Bills have not won

967
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 1: on Monday Night Football since Oh my god, that's insane. Yeah, yeah,

968
00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:46,920
Speaker 1: So I guess I just locked it in for us,

969
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 1: and I guess we gotta put the alright, so right

970
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 1: now if we don't take a bye this week, these

971
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 1: are the games that we like, and I think we

972
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 1: have found a decent number of games that we can

973
00:51:57,120 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 1: start to feel good about. We'll be choosing, will be

974
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:05,880
Speaker 1: choosing zing from Saints minus three, Miami minus eleven, Colts

975
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 1: minus three, Cards plus three, Eagles plus nine and a half,

976
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 1: Pats minus one, Washington plus ten Niners plus two and

977
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:19,840
Speaker 1: a half. There are three games on this list that

978
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 1: left Washington Niners. I really like the car Cards one.

979
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:27,879
Speaker 1: That's what's scaring me so much. It feels like such

980
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 1: a glaring game that really stands out there. That's I mean,

981
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:32,360
Speaker 1: I know it's our big balls by the week or

982
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:36,919
Speaker 1: it just that is a funky line. Um, So yeah,

983
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 1: we can get into the survivor here. This is another week,

984
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:43,880
Speaker 1: some big numbers and some teams that most people haven't used. So,

985
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 1: like I said, I've been saving the Chiefs just like

986
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,359
Speaker 1: I was for us. Perfect week to use them here

987
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:53,399
Speaker 1: against Denby if you already somehow us the Chiefs, I mean,

988
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:56,080
Speaker 1: it's it's it's one of these weeks where it's you

989
00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 1: gotta get a little weird with it, like Minnesota at

990
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 1: home against the Aguars. Of course I want to tell

991
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:03,840
Speaker 1: people to take that, but it's someone that got knocked

992
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 1: out on Minnesota. That's it's scary. It is scary back

993
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 1: in Kirk. So from my I guess the second one

994
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 1: I put in his Minnesota and if you hadn't used

995
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 1: him yet, it's not terrible. Green Bay against the Eagles.

996
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:19,359
Speaker 1: Eagles are not a good team there. They're a team

997
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: that can cover maybe on these back doors, but they're

998
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 1: not a team you can really trust to beat these

999
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 1: teams outright. So I don't hate the green Bay play either.

1000
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:27,440
Speaker 1: If you haven't used them yet, so my favorite one

1001
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:29,719
Speaker 1: is the Chief's second favorite to Minnesota. And then if

1002
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 1: you have to green back, I hope you keep winning.

1003
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 1: I only want good things for you. Yeah, it's not

1004
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 1: a million, I wouldn't get paid out like what we're

1005
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 1: on the pace for, but it's still be a nice

1006
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 1: little pay there if we can make this final. People, listen,

1007
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 1: we still got a shot to win a million in

1008
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:47,400
Speaker 1: this contest. We got a shot. There's this one guy.

1009
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:50,399
Speaker 1: It was just been money. Like I've been tracking his picks.

1010
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 1: I saw him making a little run. He started the

1011
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:55,879
Speaker 1: year terribly. I think he started the year I would

1012
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:58,319
Speaker 1: have been two and eight, and every week he goes

1013
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 1: four and one. Like i'ven't been his own. I haven't

1014
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 1: been his picks because the steed has been so good. Um,

1015
00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 1: he was sharp. Last week he rode with us, he

1016
00:54:06,680 --> 00:54:09,319
Speaker 1: took He end up taking Houston like we did, end

1017
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 1: up taking Washington like we did. He did the Saints,

1018
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:16,840
Speaker 1: and then he took a really dumb pick and taking Cleveland.

1019
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 1: He took them, so he lost that one, and then

1020
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,840
Speaker 1: obviously he covered on the books. So this guy is

1021
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 1: pretty damn sharp. He's gonna be tough to chance because

1022
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:26,120
Speaker 1: the guy we talked about earlier in the season, he's

1023
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 1: fallen off completely. Like the guy joked about every week

1024
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:30,879
Speaker 1: he was just fading the Cowboys and the Jets. Yeah,

1025
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 1: he's he's like, he's back down the twenties now. So

1026
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 1: the dudes ahead of us there for real, it's gonna

1027
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:38,759
Speaker 1: be tough to catch them. But if we just keep

1028
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:40,680
Speaker 1: stringing these weeks alonger, I really do think we can

1029
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 1: get back in the top ten and make some serious coin.

1030
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 1: We're going for a buddy, but we still gotta find

1031
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 1: it buy we need one. We gotta find one. We

1032
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:50,719
Speaker 1: gotta find one, all right. Uh. As we have been

1033
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 1: doing every single week, we asked fans to rate and

1034
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 1: review the podcast. Those who did and used the winning

1035
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 1: phrase in their review were eligible to win up to

1036
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars. And this week you're winning four hundred dollars. Uh.

1037
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:07,359
Speaker 1: And we did have so many reviews. Matt Mitchell will

1038
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 1: send me like choices for reviews that I then ultimately select. Uh.

1039
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 1: And he's, like I said, we have so many good ones.

1040
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 1: He goes, yeah, we had so many reviews this week.

1041
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:19,920
Speaker 1: So that's all amazing. Thank you for all that and

1042
00:55:19,960 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 1: we will reveal the winner in a second reminder that

1043
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 1: we are doing another phrase that pays, so let's see,

1044
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:30,279
Speaker 1: the winner will win one for every win Simon and

1045
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 1: I have in this week's contest, we will match that

1046
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 1: number with a donation to the winner's favorite charity. Go

1047
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:40,880
Speaker 1: rate and review the podcast using the phrase Simon says,

1048
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 1: bet like an insider, and we will randomly choose the

1049
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 1: winner to get that cash. The winner and very well,

1050
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:54,759
Speaker 1: by the way, last week's winner, Uh Daniel uh for

1051
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 1: go for four win the cash he chose it was

1052
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 1: only a hundred bucks. Unfortunately, because I went wonder for

1053
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:05,680
Speaker 1: he chose to have his money donated to Black Lives

1054
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 1: Matter and that he would instead take a hoodie and

1055
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 1: Actual Network coodie um. The winner of this week's contest

1056
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 1: is Ron with two ends Hollywood Burner with two ends

1057
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:25,520
Speaker 1: Hollywood Burner. I I feel like that's like fake, but

1058
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:29,120
Speaker 1: please reach out to Matt dot Mitchell at Action Network

1059
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Speaker 1: four Action Network dot com Matt dot Mitchell at Action

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Speaker 1: Network dot com for your prize. Here is Ron's review

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Speaker 1: five stars from Ron Hollywood Burner. Don't get emotional, Simon

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Speaker 1: test don't get emotional, but These guys are so likable

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Speaker 1: and so much fun to spend these Sesson Session sections with,

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Speaker 1: and they give winners. Simon says, don't get emotional, but

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Speaker 1: I'm going the other way on this one. I'm all

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Speaker 1: in on my the favorite podcast emotionally invested Attachment. It

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Speaker 1: was written in a much more lovely way than it

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Speaker 1: was read. That was a struggle, really was. I won't

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Speaker 1: judge though I can't read either, so that was pretty

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Speaker 1: That was good by my standards. Amazing, amazing review. All

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Speaker 1: the reviews are amazing. We appreciate them so much. Um

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Speaker 1: Please don't be offended if we don't choose you, but

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Speaker 1: that was fantastic. Keep reviewing people. We every week we're

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Speaker 1: choosing a new one. So every week and write a

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Speaker 1: new one, we might pick you. That's totally true. By

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Speaker 1: the way, just because you ventured once doesn't mean you're

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Speaker 1: not eligible every single week. Four hundred dollars to Ron

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Speaker 1: Hollywood Burner. This has been the favorite podcast from the

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Speaker 1: Action Network. I am Chad Millman, he is Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 1: Download from Apple, podcast from Spotify wherever you get your

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Speaker 1: podcasts until next week. Love