WEBVTT - TXMC Trades Discussion on Macro, Fed, Inflation, and Bitcoin 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:02.600 Hello, and welcome back to another episode of The Mark 0:00:02.680 --> 0:00:06.160 Moss Show, where we talk about the decentralized revolution that 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:08.520 is happening across the world. Of course we're talking about bitcoin, 0:00:08.720 --> 0:00:11.840 talking about cryptocurrencies and the way the world is changing 0:00:11.880 --> 0:00:16.320 looking at the intersection of politics, finance and technology. Now, 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:19.599 you know, I try to bring to you some educations 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:22.280 you can understand what's really going on, cut through the nonsense, 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:24.599 through the noise and see the signals, see the real data, 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:27.080 the latest breaking news, and I try to bring some 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:29.280 new interesting guests. You don't have to hear me talk 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:31.120 all the time. And today I am joined in the 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:34.680 studio by t x m C. You can find them 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:37.919 on Twitter at t x m C Trades and we've 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:41.080 done a couple Twitter spaces and stuff like that together, 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:43.279 and uh man, I really enjoy your insights. So thanks 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:45.320 so much for joining me today, Thanks for having me 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:48.560 on Mark and looking forward to talking to you, buddy. Yeah, 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:51.080 we've gotten into some good conversations on the Twitter spaces, 0:00:51.120 --> 0:00:52.960 but you know, with so many people on there, it's 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:54.720 hard to like really dig in. But you know, I 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:58.040 do enjoy the analysis that you've been putting out there. Um. 0:00:58.280 --> 0:00:59.880 Kind of a lot of the same stuff that I 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:04.040 cap you know, obviously bitcoin, but also greater, uh, the 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:06.360 the why, as I like to call it, so the 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:09.640 catalyst for it. Um, you know, the macro picture, if 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:12.960 you will. So we'll talk about all those things. UM 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:16.520 started off. I saw you tweeted out earlier today that 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:20.399 everything on your chart was green. Bitcoin is green, the 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:24.399 Dixie is green, gold is green, oils green, the bond 0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:27.640 yields are green. What do you make of that. I've 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:30.399 been thinking about that today. Um. You know, I went 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:33.280 out to lunch with my family and trying to think 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:35.280 about what I think is going on in the market. 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:38.000 And I don't have, you know, great answers for all 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:40.120 of it, but I think that we're kind of at 0:01:40.120 --> 0:01:43.800 an intersection here where the market is trying to figure 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:48.000 out how seriously it takes the FED at trying to 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:51.960 basically engineer recession. And you know, there's a lot of 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:56.520 leading economic indicators that are suggesting we're we're heading into 0:01:56.520 --> 0:01:59.720 one or that we're currently in one. But at the 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:03.720 same time, people see commodities coming down, they suspect that 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:08.120 inflation has peaked, and they are hoping that that means 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:10.600 that some of the worst may be behind us. And 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:12.880 I think that some of that push and pull is 0:02:12.960 --> 0:02:16.760 why on a day in the like today, that the 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:19.760 many things are up when you would expect. You know, 0:02:19.760 --> 0:02:22.360 if the dollar is really strong and oil is really strong, 0:02:22.760 --> 0:02:25.640 maybe we wouldn't see so much strength in tech stocks 0:02:25.639 --> 0:02:28.600 and elsewhere. But everything across the board is green. So 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.040 I think there's a lot of uncertainty in the market. 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:34.080 That's how I take it. Yeah, well, there's no doubt 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:36.160 there's a lot of uncertainty in the market. I've never 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:38.320 probably I don't think I've ever felt more uncertain about 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:39.720 the markets at any point in my career. And I've 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.200 been through a couple of these bear markets. Um, you know, 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:44.600 one thing, when you look at the blow off top. 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:46.680 So if you look at you know, market cycles, any 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:48.600 if you pick anyone, go back to the dot com 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:51.560 boom or seventeen bitcoin boom. You see that you go 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:54.280 into these parabolic runs and it starts sucking in, sucking 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:55.760 and sucking more and more buyers and goes into this 0:02:55.760 --> 0:02:58.160 parabolic advance and then it gets very volatile at the 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.760 top and then it blows off. But it doesn't doesn't 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:02.160 always just blow up in a straight line. You know 0:03:02.200 --> 0:03:04.280 that it has the bounces and it gets supervoltal and 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:06.800 and maybe that's just kind of where we're at. UM. 0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:11.359 I was talking with Macro al alf alf Macro yesterday, 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:13.680 and he really focuses a lot on on the bond 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:15.320 side of things, and he was just saying kind of 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:17.560 the same thing that you're saying, which is the bond 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:20.680 markets are saying they don't believe the Fed, they don't 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:22.520 believe the central banks are going to go through with this. 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:24.639 That's what the bonds are pricing in. And so it 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:26.800 kind of goes along with what you're saying. But it 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:31.000 is interesting to see, um, the dollar, the Dollar index 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:32.680 as you have on your charter, the d X Y, 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:34.760 which is the dollar compared to a basket of currency, 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.520 is really just kind of the euro mostly. UM. How 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:41.040 the dollar has been getting so strong lately, and it 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:42.640 looks like I was looking at some charts yesterday, it 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:46.240 was like almost like a direct correlation inverse correlation with 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:48.839 the strength of the dollar and commodities taking a dip 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:52.440 at the same time, UM, which is interesting. So I 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:54.400 started trying to look at the commodities priced and other 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:56.520 currencies to see is it really just the dollar getting 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:59.280 stronger or the commodities getting weaker. But then in this 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:01.800 chart that you put to today, we see the DIXIE 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:05.760 is strong and we see the commodities and other assets 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:07.080 being strong at the same time. So I thought that 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:10.080 was pretty interesting. Yeah, I think part of what's happening 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.120 with the DIXIE is is the weakening of the euro 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:13.800 and the yen like, which is kind of what you're 0:04:13.800 --> 0:04:16.680 describing with mostly being the euro. Uh. And so I 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:19.479 think that and I'm certainly not an f X expert. 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:21.760 I'm still very much trying to learn and get an 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:27.040 idea for intuitively interpreting these these markets. But you know, 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:30.360 the basket, the makeup of the d X Y is 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:33.400 important to which direction it's going in, and it's not 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:38.000 always necessarily dollar strength it's leading, but perhaps weakness and 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:39.880 the other members. And I think that's part of what 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:42.800 it is here, you know. And commodities, Yeah, they they 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:45.680 they've been coming down. They've bounced a little today, But 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:49.599 I think there's very real concerns about recession, even more 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:51.480 so in Europe than here in the US, and I 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:54.280 think that's playing a role in the Dixie's strength. Yeah, 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:57.400 for sure. Well, and we have a situation where, you know, 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.240 in the United States, we've been raising rates to talking 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:03.040 about tightening, not really tightening yet, but talking about tightening, 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:05.159 when the rest of the world, and back to Europe, 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:06.960 you know, they've been in a situation where they've been 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:09.080 trying to ease. Then they said, okay, well we'll try 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:10.480 to tighten. But as soon as they try to tighten, 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:12.920 things have just gone off the rails and they're quickly 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:16.920 frantically going backwards on that. Christine Leguard talked about something 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:21.080 called fragmentation, which is basically just a fancy word of 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:24.800 saying more distribute, redistribution. Right, well, let's just let's just 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:26.520 take it from the good countries and we'll give it 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:28.720 to the bad countries. And uh, it doesn't sound like 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:30.160 a good plan of you have you looked into that. 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:32.640 I've been trying to read a little about it. I 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:35.240 don't I'm not satisfied with my opinion on it right now. 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:37.920 But yeah, they've got a big mess on their hands. Yeah, 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:39.479 they got a big mess, and it doesn't look like 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:43.000 it's going to make it make it. That doesnt seem 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:44.240 like they're gonna have a good way getting out of 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:45.520 this now. I want to talk about, you know, we'll 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:47.640 talk about this bigger macro picture worth, which I think 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:50.279 is important to understand because it's, you know, the big catalyst. 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:53.400 It's the fundamental drivers of of of most assets, all 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:55.520 assets pretty much today. And then we'll bring it back 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:58.720 into bitcoin and we'll talk about that specifically, but if 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:01.920 we just kind of stick on this macro trend um, 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:03.680 you know, one of the big fears I think that 0:06:03.760 --> 0:06:06.400 the FED has too and we're starting to see it 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:09.080 is in the credit markets, and so I think what 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:10.560 the FED wants to do, the central banks want to do, 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:13.640 is make sure there's enough liquidity to keep the system going. 0:06:14.120 --> 0:06:16.040 And I know you had posted a chart also on 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:19.560 the corporate credit spreads, so you want to look at 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:21.760 the bond market. The bond market typically kind of tells 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:23.919 you where the equity markets. The debt markets tell you 0:06:23.920 --> 0:06:25.880 where the stock markets are going to go um, And 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:28.440 we're starting to see these corporate credit spreads really starting 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:30.520 to get wide, and it looks like the credit markets 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:34.279 are getting pretty dangerous. To what's your take on that? Yeah, 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:36.600 I you know, I've been meaning to dig in and 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:40.080 and look at the different layers inside of the credit 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.240 spread because you know why, I posted an index that 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:45.760 puts up to them together. Uh, and yeah, it's they've 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:47.640 been going down for a while. And even if you 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.520 look at emerging markets E T F, or you look 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:52.760 at H Y G or J and K or any 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:55.560 of those, Uh, it's it's it's been down only. And 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:58.960 I think that that's that's a really risky place, and 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:01.920 that was in part what blew out in ten and 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:04.920 kind of forced the pal pivot. But also, I mean, 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:08.160 there's so many companies we've got that have propped up 0:07:08.200 --> 0:07:10.440 on debt over the last couple of years, so many 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:14.720 zombified companies. And uh, you know, with the seeming lead, 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:17.960 seeming lack of demand for corporate debt, I you know, 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:23.320 you you greatly accelerate the likelihood of defaults in that market. 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:25.680 You know, when as people are as buyers are leaving. 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.520 Uh and with rates rising where they are, some of 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:30.800 these people are gonna get downgraded. It's gonna be harder 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:33.600 for them to get financing. I think that that that 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:37.240 market is right for some serious deterioration. And we're getting close, 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:39.800 like you said that chart I posted this morning, Uh, 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:43.640 we're past the level we were aten that caused PAL 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:46.520 to pivot at that point in time, But it's unclear 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:48.840 if that is going to be enough this time around. 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:53.000 It seems like their focuses elsewhere, probably mostly because of inflation. Yeah, 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:55.000 and I think I think that, I mean, you just 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:57.920 nailed it with that point. Um. They've come out and 0:07:57.960 --> 0:08:00.360 said as much. Right, So in the last meeting they had, 0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:04.720 Powell said we are committed to getting back to two 0:08:04.720 --> 0:08:08.880 percent inflation. And so you know, they vowed, they promised, 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.800 they're committed, you know, all these big fancy words. But 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:14.880 I think they're pretty much focused on that number. So 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:17.840 in the past you kind of point back, we're getting 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:19.320 back to the levels where they had to come off 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:22.920 of that. So for the listeners, UM J. Powell came in, 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:25.520 took over the FED and was fired up to to 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:28.400 change the system, and he wanted to get back to normal, 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:30.160 and he wanted to raise rates back up again and 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:32.160 all these things. You wanted to decrease the balance sheet, 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:34.040 all these things. You want to fix the system. And 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:36.240 very quickly the markets didn't like that and they started 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:38.679 rolling over very fast, and to the point t XMC 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:41.120 is making, Uh, they were forced to pivot off of 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:44.520 that because the markets were breaking apart. But today the 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:47.520 markets are breaking apart worse than we saw that dip. 0:08:47.800 --> 0:08:50.040 But at the same time, they're not ready to pivot, 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:53.040 and I think it's because they're focused on a completely 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:55.080 different metric, which which I want to dig into with 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:57.480 you even more. Um, you're listening to the Market Mos Show. 0:08:57.480 --> 0:09:01.280 We're talking about the Decentralized Revolution, talking about bick going cryptocurrencies. 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:04.600 We're talking about the markets, the reason why we need 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:07.280 bitcoin and what drives that. I'm in the studio with 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:09.839 t x m C. You can find them on Twitter 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:13.480 at t x mc Trades. We're gonna be talking about that. 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:15.720 I want to talk about again, Like I said, the markets, 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:17.760 I want to dig into some unemployment and some other metrics. 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:20.240 Look at what the FEDS focusing on. We're gonna bring 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:21.680 it back to bitcoin and what we think is going 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:24.280 to happen with bitcoin in the near future. I got 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:25.920 a whole lot more planned in a minute when I 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:28.120 come back, So don't go away, We'll be right back, 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:31.080 all right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Markma Show. 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:34.480 We're talking about the Decentralized Revolution. We're talking about bitcoin. 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:37.679 We're talking about cryptocurrencies. We talk about the what we 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:41.480 talked about, the why, why is it important? Why will 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:43.640 the price go up or down? What should we expect, 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:45.439 and so much more. I'm in the studio with t 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:47.520 x m C. You can find them on Twitter t 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:50.680 x MC trades. And before the break we were talking, 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:55.040 you had basically had brought up the Powell pivot, the 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:58.480 Fed pivot in eighteen and UM, how they're looking at 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:00.400 different data. So last time they move of don the 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:02.600 markets and a lot of people. This time we're thinking that, 0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:06.640 you know, maybe they'll let the markets drop before they pivot. 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:10.520 And now here we are much further depend on which 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:12.839 end actually're looking at. UM and yet they don't seem 0:10:12.880 --> 0:10:16.720 to be ready to pivot UM. And in my opinion, 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:19.560 I basically have listened to what they said, and they 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.680 said they're focused on getting inflation back under control. I 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.160 spoke at a conference two weeks ago, about a week 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:27.959 and a half ago UM and Joseph Waange was there. 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:30.760 He's a former Fed insider and a Fed Fed bond trader, 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:32.679 and he said the same thing. He said, they're a 0:10:33.240 --> 0:10:35.400 committed to that. He said they need to see a 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.760 meaningful movement off of that, so we're at eight point six. 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:40.320 They need to see a seven six and a five 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:45.000 six before they'll do anything. Um. But a lot of 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:49.280 people also think they'll wait until something breaks. What what 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:52.160 do you? What do you think about that? Right? That's 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:55.679 that's the million dollar question, is what question? Yeah? What's 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:59.520 the thing that's going to break? Um? And I think 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:03.480 there's a there's a lot of different forces that are 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:07.200 working here. Right. You named inflation. That's their clear stated, 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:10.079 um number one priority. It's the number one priority of 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:13.720 voters in a mid term election year. Angry voters. Uh. 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:18.079 And inflation affects everyone. It affects more people than falling 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:21.280 asset prices do. Right, Like the stock market affects a 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:23.439 certain percentage of Americans who have a lot of their 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:26.560 wealth there. But there's half of America or more that 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.680 don't have any stock exposure to speak of for anything meaningful, 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:31.840 and so they don't really care so much about what 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.960 the SNP is doing. They care about the prices of gas, 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:37.120 the price of shelter, the price of meat and eggs. 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:42.840 I think what we are likely headed for it's hard 0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:45.640 to know what the thing is that will break. Maybe 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:47.240 it's the credit markets, like you and I were just 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:48.800 talking about we thought it was going to be the 0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:51.520 bond market, but it seems like they've done most of 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:54.600 their sell off, at least to this point, and maybe 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:57.439 they're waiting for some new narrative that drives yields higher. 0:11:57.440 --> 0:12:00.080 I couldn't fathom yields breaking out of a four to 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:04.120 your trend with record debt, but regardless, it seems bonds 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:06.560 have cooled off a little bit. So with all of 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:11.080 this talk about unemployment being low, the labor market is strong, 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:14.920 that's what they keep saying. I really feel that they're 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:17.600 just going to continue tightening until we have some kind 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:19.800 of a blowout in the labor markets and then they're 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:26.000 forced to seriously consider helping people through stimulus or reinvigorating 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:29.839 the economy, even though inflation is really high. And I 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:33.640 think this controlled demolition, which is a term I've heard 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:36.200 a lot of people use. Danielle d Martino Booth has 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.400 talked about this a lot. I feel like over the 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.520 last few months, we haven't seen that that sharp, volatile 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:44.080 fall from a bubble pop like you were describing, and 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.800 it's been more of like this controlled demolition, Like you said, 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:50.400 the FED hasn't tightened that much. They've talked a lot 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:54.199 about tightening, and the market has done of the work 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:56.280 for them, and the bond market even got out ahead 0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:57.960 of the Fed a bit, which is why I think 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:01.679 partially it's coming back some, but it I really believe 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.000 they're going to continue to tighten, and because of some 0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:07.840 demographic issues, there's only I think, so much labor that 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:11.520 can really come back, and so they're they're hoping this 0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:15.840 to see job openings fall or at least that disparity 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:17.760 between the people who want to work and the amount 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:21.760 of available work closed down, because that's what they're calling demand. 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.280 And I really think that that as long as inflation 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.200 remains elevated and it continues encouraging them to stay on 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:29.959 this path, that that they're just gonna push until something 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:32.800 like that breaks. And if we're about to have a 0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.719 Q two earning season, that is, it's anyone's guess how 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.480 good or bad it is. And if we see some 0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:43.080 surprises to the downside, if there's serious pain inflicted on 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:46.400 consumer spending on the nominal level, because I think most 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.840 people are looking at nominal numbers going up because prices 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:52.959 are going up, and they're ignoring the weakness in real numbers. 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.839 But if we see actual falls and consumer spending, uh, 0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.600 that might start to wake up the FED. Because the 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.960 the economy is powered by the consumer. It's powered by 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:06.400 their spending, and that is what powers tax receipts, which 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:09.640 currently are not enough to pay the government's obligations. They 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:12.360 have to get money from somewhere. So there's a there's 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:16.480 a certain point where falling GDP is antithetical to the 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:21.200 FED maintaining good standing on the debt. Yeah. Yeah, I 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:23.080 mean there's so many levers. It's it's it's such an 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:25.560 intricate web to sit there to try to unweave if 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:27.800 you would, you know. And it's like the one thing 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:30.640 we can see is that if they're committed to bring 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.000 in inflation down and they're talking about price inflation, so 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:35.560 the price of consumer goods and so when you talk 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:38.440 about gas, gas prices are a big thing. We see 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:40.360 the President tweeting about that all the time. Doesn't know 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:42.600 what he's talking about, but he's still tweeting about it. 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.560 We know it's a hot point, right, So gas prices, 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:48.240 food prices. I commented on a tweet from Lynn Alden 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:53.280 earlier today talking about how UM food prices have gone 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:57.520 up by twelve percent in the same time that, um, 0:14:57.600 --> 0:15:01.720 what is it? She said, the price of food used 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:05.160 at home rose twelve percent last year while average wages 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:08.920 rose six percent, and so like that's a big problem 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.320 for people to have. And I had said, basically, humans 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:12.720 can take a lot of pain and struggle brought on 0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:15.960 by central planners as we peak approach peak centralization. But 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:19.840 the catalyst that always swings the pendulum back is always food. 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:22.320 Because if you if you can't eat or feed your family, 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.280 it's time for change. And so we have food and energy, right, 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.040 those are kind of the two main things that you 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.320 need to live, um. And so people are screaming about that. 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:33.400 And so the FED can't print more food or energy, right, 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.160 they can't do that. And there was a testimony I 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:38.280 talked about I think a week or two ago, and 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:41.080 it was a Senator John Kennedy and he was questioning J. 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:44.440 Powell and he said, so, you know there's two levers, right, 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:48.120 supply and demand, and the FED can't increase supply, So 0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:50.760 you're focused on destroying demand, is that right? And J. 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:53.720 Pale is like, yeah, right, we're focused on destroying demand. 0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:59.480 They talked about we need to bring stocks down to 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:02.040 lower a man, so the wealth effect, right, So if 0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:05.160 they make people feel poor, their retirements come down, their 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:07.320 house come down, etcetera. They just spend less. And so 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:10.040 I think I think the point that you're making, at 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:12.080 least I think is that I'm agreeing with, is that 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.400 looking at the consumer spending is probably a better indicator 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:16.120 than the CPI because the CBI is more of like 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:19.360 a lagging indicator. And if they're starting to spend less 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:22.080 than we know, the prices might be coming down. Is 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:24.080 that kind of what you're seeing. It is, Yeah, it is. 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:26.960 They're spending and their wages are the things that I 0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:30.920 watch a lot, and you know, real wages are quite negative. Uh, 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:35.680 and real consumer spending is not strong despite nominal values 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.160 being elevated because prices have gone up. You know, there's 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.080 certain things people just have to buy. You know, it 0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:43.240 doesn't really matter how expensive it is. They can only 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:45.640 you know, choose the cheapest item on the shelf so 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:51.960 many times for that basket of eggs that they must have, right, yeah, yeah, man, 0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:53.720 and so and then so this is the problem in 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:55.480 the US. But as we talked about, there's a problem 0:16:55.760 --> 0:17:00.080 globally and uh, the whole the whole financial system is 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:03.800 changing right before our very eyes, which is pretty interesting. Um, 0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:06.879 we can see emerging markets are dropping like flies and 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:09.720 now there's protests all over the world with uh, we 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:12.000 see you know, currency is going down. Now we see 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:16.080 countries going basically to a standstill, stopping and basically a 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:19.080 new payment system that the bricks nations are setting up 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:23.000 in real time. So we have all these catalysts, which 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:25.439 really signifies the world is kind of changing as we 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:28.000 know it. But what does that mean for bitcoin? And 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:29.640 that's some questions I want to get into you when 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:31.199 we get back here in a second. I'm in the 0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:35.359 studio UM with t x MC. You can find them 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.320 on Twitter at t x mc Trades. We're talking about 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:41.800 the bigger macro economic picture of what's going on with debt, 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:44.720 cp I, what the Fed is gonna do when they're 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:46.680 gonna do it, and then ultimately I want to bring 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:49.560 this back to what does it mean for bitcoin. Bitcoin 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:52.320 has been only been around for what we've been in 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.359 the longest bowl run in history, and if we go 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:56.359 into a secular bear market, what does that mean? It's 0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:58.640 pretty interesting, So I want to talk about that and 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:02.879 more with t x MC trades. Um, you're listening to 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:04.439 the Mark mos Show. I'm gonna be back with that 0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:06.600 and more in a minute, So don't go away, we'll 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:08.919 be back, all right, Welcome back. You are listening to 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.720 the Mark Moa Show. We're talking about the decentralized revolution 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:15.120 that the world is going through changing right before our 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:18.880 very eyes, led by the catalyst of decentralized technology, which 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:22.600 is bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and more. Now I'm in the studio 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.360 with t x m C t m x MC trades 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.639 on Twitter, and we're talking about some of these catalysts 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:31.120 happening in the United States, uh, and the global financial 0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:34.600 system for that matter. So you know, I know you've 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:38.200 done a lot of on chain metrics looking at bitcoin, 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:40.200 you know, looking at it from a bunch of different angles, 0:18:41.520 --> 0:18:44.800 and it seems like we've seen a lot. We've seen 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:49.040 we've seen a lot of massive movements inside the bitcoin space. Specifically. 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:52.040 One of the things that it seems like to me, 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:53.520 and I'd love to get your take on this, is 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:55.600 that it looks like bitcoin has been this kind of 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:57.359 canary in the coal mine, if you will. So the 0:18:57.359 --> 0:18:59.480 FEDS started saying they were gonna start raising rates. In 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:02.840 November of last year, Bitcoin starts selling off pretty quickly 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:07.120 much pretty far ahead of of the stock market. UM, 0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:09.439 and now it seems to have kind of found this bottom. 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:12.959 I think it's interesting when markets stopped going down on 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:17.480