Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome back to another episode of The Mark
Speaker 1: Moss Show, where we talk about the decentralized revolution that
Speaker 1: is happening across the world. Of course we're talking about bitcoin,
Speaker 1: talking about cryptocurrencies and the way the world is changing
Speaker 1: looking at the intersection of politics, finance and technology. Now,
Speaker 1: you know, I try to bring to you some educations
Speaker 1: you can understand what's really going on, cut through the nonsense,
Speaker 1: through the noise and see the signals, see the real data,
Speaker 1: the latest breaking news, and I try to bring some
Speaker 1: new interesting guests. You don't have to hear me talk
Speaker 1: all the time. And today I am joined in the
Speaker 1: studio by t x m C. You can find them
Speaker 1: on Twitter at t x m C Trades and we've
Speaker 1: done a couple Twitter spaces and stuff like that together,
Speaker 1: and uh man, I really enjoy your insights. So thanks
Speaker 1: so much for joining me today, Thanks for having me
Speaker 1: on Mark and looking forward to talking to you, buddy. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we've gotten into some good conversations on the Twitter spaces,
Speaker 1: but you know, with so many people on there, it's
Speaker 1: hard to like really dig in. But you know, I
Speaker 1: do enjoy the analysis that you've been putting out there. Um.
Speaker 1: Kind of a lot of the same stuff that I
Speaker 1: cap you know, obviously bitcoin, but also greater, uh, the
Speaker 1: the why, as I like to call it, so the
Speaker 1: catalyst for it. Um, you know, the macro picture, if
Speaker 1: you will. So we'll talk about all those things. UM
Speaker 1: started off. I saw you tweeted out earlier today that
Speaker 1: everything on your chart was green. Bitcoin is green, the
Speaker 1: Dixie is green, gold is green, oils green, the bond
Speaker 1: yields are green. What do you make of that. I've
Speaker 1: been thinking about that today. Um. You know, I went
Speaker 1: out to lunch with my family and trying to think
Speaker 1: about what I think is going on in the market.
Speaker 1: And I don't have, you know, great answers for all
Speaker 1: of it, but I think that we're kind of at
Speaker 1: an intersection here where the market is trying to figure
Speaker 1: out how seriously it takes the FED at trying to
Speaker 1: basically engineer recession. And you know, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: leading economic indicators that are suggesting we're we're heading into
Speaker 1: one or that we're currently in one. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, people see commodities coming down, they suspect that
Speaker 1: inflation has peaked, and they are hoping that that means
Speaker 1: that some of the worst may be behind us. And
Speaker 1: I think that some of that push and pull is
Speaker 1: why on a day in the like today, that the
Speaker 1: many things are up when you would expect. You know,
Speaker 1: if the dollar is really strong and oil is really strong,
Speaker 1: maybe we wouldn't see so much strength in tech stocks
Speaker 1: and elsewhere. But everything across the board is green. So
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of uncertainty in the market.
Speaker 1: That's how I take it. Yeah, well, there's no doubt
Speaker 1: there's a lot of uncertainty in the market. I've never
Speaker 1: probably I don't think I've ever felt more uncertain about
Speaker 1: the markets at any point in my career. And I've
Speaker 1: been through a couple of these bear markets. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: one thing, when you look at the blow off top.
Speaker 1: So if you look at you know, market cycles, any
Speaker 1: if you pick anyone, go back to the dot com
Speaker 1: boom or seventeen bitcoin boom. You see that you go
Speaker 1: into these parabolic runs and it starts sucking in, sucking
Speaker 1: and sucking more and more buyers and goes into this
Speaker 1: parabolic advance and then it gets very volatile at the
Speaker 1: top and then it blows off. But it doesn't doesn't
Speaker 1: always just blow up in a straight line. You know
Speaker 1: that it has the bounces and it gets supervoltal and
Speaker 1: and maybe that's just kind of where we're at. UM.
Speaker 1: I was talking with Macro al alf alf Macro yesterday,
Speaker 1: and he really focuses a lot on on the bond
Speaker 1: side of things, and he was just saying kind of
Speaker 1: the same thing that you're saying, which is the bond
Speaker 1: markets are saying they don't believe the Fed, they don't
Speaker 1: believe the central banks are going to go through with this.
Speaker 1: That's what the bonds are pricing in. And so it
Speaker 1: kind of goes along with what you're saying. But it
Speaker 1: is interesting to see, um, the dollar, the Dollar index
Speaker 1: as you have on your charter, the d X Y,
Speaker 1: which is the dollar compared to a basket of currency,
Speaker 1: is really just kind of the euro mostly. UM. How
Speaker 1: the dollar has been getting so strong lately, and it
Speaker 1: looks like I was looking at some charts yesterday, it
Speaker 1: was like almost like a direct correlation inverse correlation with
Speaker 1: the strength of the dollar and commodities taking a dip
Speaker 1: at the same time, UM, which is interesting. So I
Speaker 1: started trying to look at the commodities priced and other
Speaker 1: currencies to see is it really just the dollar getting
Speaker 1: stronger or the commodities getting weaker. But then in this
Speaker 1: chart that you put to today, we see the DIXIE
Speaker 1: is strong and we see the commodities and other assets
Speaker 1: being strong at the same time. So I thought that
Speaker 1: was pretty interesting. Yeah, I think part of what's happening
Speaker 1: with the DIXIE is is the weakening of the euro
Speaker 1: and the yen like, which is kind of what you're
Speaker 1: describing with mostly being the euro. Uh. And so I
Speaker 1: think that and I'm certainly not an f X expert.
Speaker 1: I'm still very much trying to learn and get an
Speaker 1: idea for intuitively interpreting these these markets. But you know,
Speaker 1: the basket, the makeup of the d X Y is
Speaker 1: important to which direction it's going in, and it's not
Speaker 1: always necessarily dollar strength it's leading, but perhaps weakness and
Speaker 1: the other members. And I think that's part of what
Speaker 1: it is here, you know. And commodities, Yeah, they they
Speaker 1: they've been coming down. They've bounced a little today, But
Speaker 1: I think there's very real concerns about recession, even more
Speaker 1: so in Europe than here in the US, and I
Speaker 1: think that's playing a role in the Dixie's strength. Yeah,
Speaker 1: for sure. Well, and we have a situation where, you know,
Speaker 1: in the United States, we've been raising rates to talking
Speaker 1: about tightening, not really tightening yet, but talking about tightening,
Speaker 1: when the rest of the world, and back to Europe,
Speaker 1: you know, they've been in a situation where they've been
Speaker 1: trying to ease. Then they said, okay, well we'll try
Speaker 1: to tighten. But as soon as they try to tighten,
Speaker 1: things have just gone off the rails and they're quickly
Speaker 1: frantically going backwards on that. Christine Leguard talked about something
Speaker 1: called fragmentation, which is basically just a fancy word of
Speaker 1: saying more distribute, redistribution. Right, well, let's just let's just
Speaker 1: take it from the good countries and we'll give it
Speaker 1: to the bad countries. And uh, it doesn't sound like
Speaker 1: a good plan of you have you looked into that.
Speaker 1: I've been trying to read a little about it. I
Speaker 1: don't I'm not satisfied with my opinion on it right now.
Speaker 1: But yeah, they've got a big mess on their hands. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they got a big mess, and it doesn't look like
Speaker 1: it's going to make it make it. That doesnt seem
Speaker 1: like they're gonna have a good way getting out of
Speaker 1: this now. I want to talk about, you know, we'll
Speaker 1: talk about this bigger macro picture worth, which I think
Speaker 1: is important to understand because it's, you know, the big catalyst.
Speaker 1: It's the fundamental drivers of of of most assets, all
Speaker 1: assets pretty much today. And then we'll bring it back
Speaker 1: into bitcoin and we'll talk about that specifically, but if
Speaker 1: we just kind of stick on this macro trend um,
Speaker 1: you know, one of the big fears I think that
Speaker 1: the FED has too and we're starting to see it
Speaker 1: is in the credit markets, and so I think what
Speaker 1: the FED wants to do, the central banks want to do,
Speaker 1: is make sure there's enough liquidity to keep the system going.
Speaker 1: And I know you had posted a chart also on
Speaker 1: the corporate credit spreads, so you want to look at
Speaker 1: the bond market. The bond market typically kind of tells
Speaker 1: you where the equity markets. The debt markets tell you
Speaker 1: where the stock markets are going to go um, And
Speaker 1: we're starting to see these corporate credit spreads really starting
Speaker 1: to get wide, and it looks like the credit markets
Speaker 1: are getting pretty dangerous. To what's your take on that? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I you know, I've been meaning to dig in and
Speaker 1: and look at the different layers inside of the credit
Speaker 1: spread because you know why, I posted an index that
Speaker 1: puts up to them together. Uh, and yeah, it's they've
Speaker 1: been going down for a while. And even if you
Speaker 1: look at emerging markets E T F, or you look
Speaker 1: at H Y G or J and K or any
Speaker 1: of those, Uh, it's it's it's been down only. And
Speaker 1: I think that that's that's a really risky place, and
Speaker 1: that was in part what blew out in ten and
Speaker 1: kind of forced the pal pivot. But also, I mean,
Speaker 1: there's so many companies we've got that have propped up
Speaker 1: on debt over the last couple of years, so many
Speaker 1: zombified companies. And uh, you know, with the seeming lead,
Speaker 1: seeming lack of demand for corporate debt, I you know,
Speaker 1: you you greatly accelerate the likelihood of defaults in that market.
Speaker 1: You know, when as people are as buyers are leaving.
Speaker 1: Uh and with rates rising where they are, some of
Speaker 1: these people are gonna get downgraded. It's gonna be harder
Speaker 1: for them to get financing. I think that that that
Speaker 1: market is right for some serious deterioration. And we're getting close,
Speaker 1: like you said that chart I posted this morning, Uh,
Speaker 1: we're past the level we were aten that caused PAL
Speaker 1: to pivot at that point in time, But it's unclear
Speaker 1: if that is going to be enough this time around.
Speaker 1: It seems like their focuses elsewhere, probably mostly because of inflation. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and I think I think that, I mean, you just
Speaker 1: nailed it with that point. Um. They've come out and
Speaker 1: said as much. Right, So in the last meeting they had,
Speaker 1: Powell said we are committed to getting back to two
Speaker 1: percent inflation. And so you know, they vowed, they promised,
Speaker 1: they're committed, you know, all these big fancy words. But
Speaker 1: I think they're pretty much focused on that number. So
Speaker 1: in the past you kind of point back, we're getting
Speaker 1: back to the levels where they had to come off
Speaker 1: of that. So for the listeners, UM J. Powell came in,
Speaker 1: took over the FED and was fired up to to
Speaker 1: change the system, and he wanted to get back to normal,
Speaker 1: and he wanted to raise rates back up again and
Speaker 1: all these things. You wanted to decrease the balance sheet,
Speaker 1: all these things. You want to fix the system. And
Speaker 1: very quickly the markets didn't like that and they started
Speaker 1: rolling over very fast, and to the point t XMC
Speaker 1: is making, Uh, they were forced to pivot off of
Speaker 1: that because the markets were breaking apart. But today the
Speaker 1: markets are breaking apart worse than we saw that dip.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, they're not ready to pivot,
Speaker 1: and I think it's because they're focused on a completely
Speaker 1: different metric, which which I want to dig into with
Speaker 1: you even more. Um, you're listening to the Market Mos Show.
Speaker 1: We're talking about the Decentralized Revolution, talking about bick going cryptocurrencies.
Speaker 1: We're talking about the markets, the reason why we need
Speaker 1: bitcoin and what drives that. I'm in the studio with
Speaker 1: t x m C. You can find them on Twitter
Speaker 1: at t x mc Trades. We're gonna be talking about that.
Speaker 1: I want to talk about again, Like I said, the markets,
Speaker 1: I want to dig into some unemployment and some other metrics.
Speaker 1: Look at what the FEDS focusing on. We're gonna bring
Speaker 1: it back to bitcoin and what we think is going
Speaker 1: to happen with bitcoin in the near future. I got
Speaker 1: a whole lot more planned in a minute when I
Speaker 1: come back, So don't go away, We'll be right back,
Speaker 1: all right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Markma Show.
Speaker 1: We're talking about the Decentralized Revolution. We're talking about bitcoin.
Speaker 1: We're talking about cryptocurrencies. We talk about the what we
Speaker 1: talked about, the why, why is it important? Why will
Speaker 1: the price go up or down? What should we expect,
Speaker 1: and so much more. I'm in the studio with t
Speaker 1: x m C. You can find them on Twitter t
Speaker 1: x MC trades. And before the break we were talking,
Speaker 1: you had basically had brought up the Powell pivot, the
Speaker 1: Fed pivot in eighteen and UM, how they're looking at
Speaker 1: different data. So last time they move of don the
Speaker 1: markets and a lot of people. This time we're thinking that,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe they'll let the markets drop before they pivot.
Speaker 1: And now here we are much further depend on which
Speaker 1: end actually're looking at. UM and yet they don't seem
Speaker 1: to be ready to pivot UM. And in my opinion,
Speaker 1: I basically have listened to what they said, and they
Speaker 1: said they're focused on getting inflation back under control. I
Speaker 1: spoke at a conference two weeks ago, about a week
Speaker 1: and a half ago UM and Joseph Waange was there.
Speaker 1: He's a former Fed insider and a Fed Fed bond trader,
Speaker 1: and he said the same thing. He said, they're a
Speaker 1: committed to that. He said they need to see a
Speaker 1: meaningful movement off of that, so we're at eight point six.
Speaker 1: They need to see a seven six and a five
Speaker 1: six before they'll do anything. Um. But a lot of
Speaker 1: people also think they'll wait until something breaks. What what
Speaker 1: do you? What do you think about that? Right? That's
Speaker 1: that's the million dollar question, is what question? Yeah? What's
Speaker 1: the thing that's going to break? Um? And I think
Speaker 1: there's a there's a lot of different forces that are
Speaker 1: working here. Right. You named inflation. That's their clear stated,
Speaker 1: um number one priority. It's the number one priority of
Speaker 1: voters in a mid term election year. Angry voters. Uh.
Speaker 1: And inflation affects everyone. It affects more people than falling
Speaker 1: asset prices do. Right, Like the stock market affects a
Speaker 1: certain percentage of Americans who have a lot of their
Speaker 1: wealth there. But there's half of America or more that
Speaker 1: don't have any stock exposure to speak of for anything meaningful,
Speaker 1: and so they don't really care so much about what
Speaker 1: the SNP is doing. They care about the prices of gas,
Speaker 1: the price of shelter, the price of meat and eggs.
Speaker 1: I think what we are likely headed for it's hard
Speaker 1: to know what the thing is that will break. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's the credit markets, like you and I were just
Speaker 1: talking about we thought it was going to be the
Speaker 1: bond market, but it seems like they've done most of
Speaker 1: their sell off, at least to this point, and maybe
Speaker 1: they're waiting for some new narrative that drives yields higher.
Speaker 1: I couldn't fathom yields breaking out of a four to
Speaker 1: your trend with record debt, but regardless, it seems bonds
Speaker 1: have cooled off a little bit. So with all of
Speaker 1: this talk about unemployment being low, the labor market is strong,
Speaker 1: that's what they keep saying. I really feel that they're
Speaker 1: just going to continue tightening until we have some kind
Speaker 1: of a blowout in the labor markets and then they're
Speaker 1: forced to seriously consider helping people through stimulus or reinvigorating
Speaker 1: the economy, even though inflation is really high. And I
Speaker 1: think this controlled demolition, which is a term I've heard
Speaker 1: a lot of people use. Danielle d Martino Booth has
Speaker 1: talked about this a lot. I feel like over the
Speaker 1: last few months, we haven't seen that that sharp, volatile
Speaker 1: fall from a bubble pop like you were describing, and
Speaker 1: it's been more of like this controlled demolition, Like you said,
Speaker 1: the FED hasn't tightened that much. They've talked a lot
Speaker 1: about tightening, and the market has done of the work
Speaker 1: for them, and the bond market even got out ahead
Speaker 1: of the Fed a bit, which is why I think
Speaker 1: partially it's coming back some, but it I really believe
Speaker 1: they're going to continue to tighten, and because of some
Speaker 1: demographic issues, there's only I think, so much labor that
Speaker 1: can really come back, and so they're they're hoping this
Speaker 1: to see job openings fall or at least that disparity
Speaker 1: between the people who want to work and the amount
Speaker 1: of available work closed down, because that's what they're calling demand.
Speaker 1: And I really think that that as long as inflation
Speaker 1: remains elevated and it continues encouraging them to stay on
Speaker 1: this path, that that they're just gonna push until something
Speaker 1: like that breaks. And if we're about to have a
Speaker 1: Q two earning season, that is, it's anyone's guess how
Speaker 1: good or bad it is. And if we see some
Speaker 1: surprises to the downside, if there's serious pain inflicted on
Speaker 1: consumer spending on the nominal level, because I think most
Speaker 1: people are looking at nominal numbers going up because prices
Speaker 1: are going up, and they're ignoring the weakness in real numbers.
Speaker 1: But if we see actual falls and consumer spending, uh,
Speaker 1: that might start to wake up the FED. Because the
Speaker 1: the economy is powered by the consumer. It's powered by
Speaker 1: their spending, and that is what powers tax receipts, which
Speaker 1: currently are not enough to pay the government's obligations. They
Speaker 1: have to get money from somewhere. So there's a there's
Speaker 1: a certain point where falling GDP is antithetical to the
Speaker 1: FED maintaining good standing on the debt. Yeah. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean there's so many levers. It's it's it's such an
Speaker 1: intricate web to sit there to try to unweave if
Speaker 1: you would, you know. And it's like the one thing
Speaker 1: we can see is that if they're committed to bring
Speaker 1: in inflation down and they're talking about price inflation, so
Speaker 1: the price of consumer goods and so when you talk
Speaker 1: about gas, gas prices are a big thing. We see
Speaker 1: the President tweeting about that all the time. Doesn't know
Speaker 1: what he's talking about, but he's still tweeting about it.
Speaker 1: We know it's a hot point, right, So gas prices,
Speaker 1: food prices. I commented on a tweet from Lynn Alden
Speaker 1: earlier today talking about how UM food prices have gone
Speaker 1: up by twelve percent in the same time that, um,
Speaker 1: what is it? She said, the price of food used
Speaker 1: at home rose twelve percent last year while average wages
Speaker 1: rose six percent, and so like that's a big problem
Speaker 1: for people to have. And I had said, basically, humans
Speaker 1: can take a lot of pain and struggle brought on
Speaker 1: by central planners as we peak approach peak centralization. But
Speaker 1: the catalyst that always swings the pendulum back is always food.
Speaker 1: Because if you if you can't eat or feed your family,
Speaker 1: it's time for change. And so we have food and energy, right,
Speaker 1: those are kind of the two main things that you
Speaker 1: need to live, um. And so people are screaming about that.
Speaker 1: And so the FED can't print more food or energy, right,
Speaker 1: they can't do that. And there was a testimony I
Speaker 1: talked about I think a week or two ago, and
Speaker 1: it was a Senator John Kennedy and he was questioning J.
Speaker 1: Powell and he said, so, you know there's two levers, right,
Speaker 1: supply and demand, and the FED can't increase supply, So
Speaker 1: you're focused on destroying demand, is that right? And J.
Speaker 1: Pale is like, yeah, right, we're focused on destroying demand.
Speaker 1: They talked about we need to bring stocks down to
Speaker 1: lower a man, so the wealth effect, right, So if
Speaker 1: they make people feel poor, their retirements come down, their
Speaker 1: house come down, etcetera. They just spend less. And so
Speaker 1: I think I think the point that you're making, at
Speaker 1: least I think is that I'm agreeing with, is that
Speaker 1: looking at the consumer spending is probably a better indicator
Speaker 1: than the CPI because the CBI is more of like
Speaker 1: a lagging indicator. And if they're starting to spend less
Speaker 1: than we know, the prices might be coming down. Is
Speaker 1: that kind of what you're seeing. It is, Yeah, it is.
Speaker 1: They're spending and their wages are the things that I
Speaker 1: watch a lot, and you know, real wages are quite negative. Uh,
Speaker 1: and real consumer spending is not strong despite nominal values
Speaker 1: being elevated because prices have gone up. You know, there's
Speaker 1: certain things people just have to buy. You know, it
Speaker 1: doesn't really matter how expensive it is. They can only
Speaker 1: you know, choose the cheapest item on the shelf so
Speaker 1: many times for that basket of eggs that they must have, right, yeah, yeah, man,
Speaker 1: and so and then so this is the problem in
Speaker 1: the US. But as we talked about, there's a problem
Speaker 1: globally and uh, the whole the whole financial system is
Speaker 1: changing right before our very eyes, which is pretty interesting. Um,
Speaker 1: we can see emerging markets are dropping like flies and
Speaker 1: now there's protests all over the world with uh, we
Speaker 1: see you know, currency is going down. Now we see
Speaker 1: countries going basically to a standstill, stopping and basically a
Speaker 1: new payment system that the bricks nations are setting up
Speaker 1: in real time. So we have all these catalysts, which
Speaker 1: really signifies the world is kind of changing as we
Speaker 1: know it. But what does that mean for bitcoin? And
Speaker 1: that's some questions I want to get into you when
Speaker 1: we get back here in a second. I'm in the
Speaker 1: studio UM with t x MC. You can find them
Speaker 1: on Twitter at t x mc Trades. We're talking about
Speaker 1: the bigger macro economic picture of what's going on with debt,
Speaker 1: cp I, what the Fed is gonna do when they're
Speaker 1: gonna do it, and then ultimately I want to bring
Speaker 1: this back to what does it mean for bitcoin. Bitcoin
Speaker 1: has been only been around for what we've been in
Speaker 1: the longest bowl run in history, and if we go
Speaker 1: into a secular bear market, what does that mean? It's
Speaker 1: pretty interesting, So I want to talk about that and
Speaker 1: more with t x MC trades. Um, you're listening to
Speaker 1: the Mark mos Show. I'm gonna be back with that
Speaker 1: and more in a minute, So don't go away, we'll
Speaker 1: be back, all right, Welcome back. You are listening to
Speaker 1: the Mark Moa Show. We're talking about the decentralized revolution
Speaker 1: that the world is going through changing right before our
Speaker 1: very eyes, led by the catalyst of decentralized technology, which
Speaker 1: is bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and more. Now I'm in the studio
Speaker 1: with t x m C t m x MC trades
Speaker 1: on Twitter, and we're talking about some of these catalysts
Speaker 1: happening in the United States, uh, and the global financial
Speaker 1: system for that matter. So you know, I know you've
Speaker 1: done a lot of on chain metrics looking at bitcoin,
Speaker 1: you know, looking at it from a bunch of different angles,
Speaker 1: and it seems like we've seen a lot. We've seen
Speaker 1: we've seen a lot of massive movements inside the bitcoin space. Specifically.
Speaker 1: One of the things that it seems like to me,
Speaker 1: and I'd love to get your take on this, is
Speaker 1: that it looks like bitcoin has been this kind of
Speaker 1: canary in the coal mine, if you will. So the
Speaker 1: FEDS started saying they were gonna start raising rates. In
Speaker 1: November of last year, Bitcoin starts selling off pretty quickly
Speaker 1: much pretty far ahead of of the stock market. UM,
Speaker 1: and now it seems to have kind of found this bottom.
Speaker 1: I think it's interesting when markets stopped going down on
Speaker 1: bad news. So like we saw the terror Luna liquidation,
Speaker 1: which was very bad news, and it crashed. And then
Speaker 1: we saw, you know, the dominoes continue to fall, more
Speaker 1: contagion and you know, the Celsius and the ft X,
Speaker 1: and it's just continue to get on and on and on.
Speaker 1: But now we're still seeing more bad news. We started
Speaker 1: seeing massive bitcoin mining liquidations happening, but yet the markets
Speaker 1: aren't moving down anymore. So what's your take on that?
Speaker 1: Do you think the markets have taken the bad news.
Speaker 1: We've absorbed it, and now these even more liquidation of
Speaker 1: miners aren't bringing the markets down. So you know, definitely
Speaker 1: those first moves down, UM, the energy behind them, there
Speaker 1: was a clear reason to push the market down right there.
Speaker 1: It was counterparty risk, unsecured debt, UH and liquidations. I
Speaker 1: we've seen most of that now, UM, and you know,
Speaker 1: it's we're kind of in a weird place here because
Speaker 1: appetite for risk is essentially non existent. Obviously, there are
Speaker 1: people who always want to buy bitcoin when it's on
Speaker 1: a discount. I don't really mean those people, but just
Speaker 1: general market appetite for risk is way down, and I
Speaker 1: think that people are still kind of waiting to see
Speaker 1: what happens. Market participants broadly don't know what's going to happen.
Speaker 1: You know, we've got cp I next week. Q two
Speaker 1: earnings are about to come in. We're about to find
Speaker 1: out if we're actually in a technical recession or not
Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks from now. So there's a
Speaker 1: lot of things the market's waiting for. And uh, I
Speaker 1: think that it it's per it's certainly possible that bitcoin
Speaker 1: might have reached a bottom. You know, we came all
Speaker 1: the way down. We broke the all time high seventeen
Speaker 1: all time high, which we hadn't done before in a
Speaker 1: in a bull market pullback. So that really kind of
Speaker 1: shook a lot of people's narratives and some of the
Speaker 1: dogmatic beliefs about what bitcoin cannor can't do. And I
Speaker 1: think some of that is healthy long term for bitcoin,
Speaker 1: for any asset, kind of shake loose. Some I don't know,
Speaker 1: irrational beliefs like that so I think we've gone through
Speaker 1: most of that kind of pain. Obviously, something else could
Speaker 1: happen that pushes us down further. But I think that
Speaker 1: if you look, if you look at some of the
Speaker 1: other bear markets, just for Bitcoin alone, granted they came
Speaker 1: in that secular bowl that you were talking about, Mark,
Speaker 1: but you know their bitcoin goes to these long periods
Speaker 1: of reset. You know, it can be months. Sometimes there's
Speaker 1: been times where it's been years before it gathers momentum. Again,
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think this will be years, but I
Speaker 1: do think that you're absolutely right. I like what you
Speaker 1: said about it being a fire alarm. Uh. You know,
Speaker 1: my my buddy Checkmate, who's the lead analyst at glass Node,
Speaker 1: he was one of the first people I heard say
Speaker 1: that a long time ago, that it's like the last
Speaker 1: functioning fire alarm. I think because it's a it's probably
Speaker 1: possibly the last great free market. Because it's a highly
Speaker 1: liquid instrument that runs three and it's borderless, it allows
Speaker 1: itself to react to changing economic conditions more quickly and
Speaker 1: more violently than most other assets and markets, and I
Speaker 1: think that's why it functions so well. Now, I I
Speaker 1: would agree with the one of the most free markets
Speaker 1: that we have. Doesn't mean it's not manipulated. It's it's
Speaker 1: it's heavily manipulated by these big movements because it's such
Speaker 1: a small market cap. But you know, so back to
Speaker 1: kind of this just this cascading event that we're talking about, right,
Speaker 1: So the Terra Luna blow up, they had to dump
Speaker 1: all their bitcoin they had in reserves, and then the
Speaker 1: next Domino, and then you've got the Celsius liquidations and
Speaker 1: three Arrows capital and you know all the liquidations don't
Speaker 1: need to go through all those But um, you know
Speaker 1: supply and demand, right, so, um, we can make things
Speaker 1: super complicated, but we can also make them very simple.
Speaker 1: And like markets or prices are set by supply and
Speaker 1: demand imbalances in the market, and so there was more
Speaker 1: people selling than there were people buying, so it pushed
Speaker 1: the price down. But now, um, to these giant liquidations
Speaker 1: that we saw, uh, and we saw some big ones, right,
Speaker 1: was eighteen thousand bitcoin were dumped unto the market something
Speaker 1: like that. Um, big big numbers, but the market's gobbled
Speaker 1: those up pretty fast. So you would have like to
Speaker 1: to the point you were making there earlier that a
Speaker 1: lot of that risk appetite has gone, which I would agree. Um,
Speaker 1: it's been trading closely. Like with the NASDAC tech stocks,
Speaker 1: they're out of favor right now. Um. But now bitcoin
Speaker 1: is at a four billion market cap. It's it's very tiny,
Speaker 1: and you have these like true believers that believe in
Speaker 1: it for the long term, and so they it's not
Speaker 1: a risk appetite for them. It's like, hey, I I
Speaker 1: believe this. I'm I can wait five years, I can
Speaker 1: wait ten years. And we know that historically under twenty
Speaker 1: thousand is like a historic buying a cheap, cheap moment,
Speaker 1: and so we saw it sell down, sell down, cell down,
Speaker 1: cell down. But now eighteen thousand bitcoin dumped in the
Speaker 1: market and they got gobbled up. I mean that seemed
Speaker 1: pretty strong to me. Yeah, I mean it can definitely
Speaker 1: absorb some cell pressure, right. And and it depends on
Speaker 1: how those coins are dumped. You know, if if they're
Speaker 1: sold slowly over a period of time, if the bots
Speaker 1: kind of distribute them the right way, similarly to the
Speaker 1: way that Michael Sailor buys bitcoin. Uh, then it can
Speaker 1: possibly just be absorbed by regular market liquidity. Uh. It's
Speaker 1: it's definitely possible but I think, you know, that kind
Speaker 1: of fervor where people just want to own bitcoin and
Speaker 1: they're willing to market by to get that bitcoin wherever
Speaker 1: it is. Uh, that kind of appetite. I think we
Speaker 1: might be some time away for or we were waiting
Speaker 1: for some kind of an economic catalyst, whether it's they
Speaker 1: turned QUEUEI back on and everyone thinks that solves the problem,
Speaker 1: whatever it is. I think a lot of people are
Speaker 1: waiting for that. UM. That's where I think we will
Speaker 1: see a sustained up trend. And I think maybe until that,
Speaker 1: until we could agree that risk appetite broadly is more
Speaker 1: um more palpable. I think that we're in for more volatility.
Speaker 1: We might get a bear market rally and then it
Speaker 1: might come back down, you know. Sure. Yeah, And back
Speaker 1: to kind of what I was saying earlier, like at
Speaker 1: the top of these these peak market cycles, we just
Speaker 1: get lots of volatility, but just for some numbers. I
Speaker 1: was just looking here. So in the last two weeks
Speaker 1: of June, bitcoin miners dumped eighteen thousand, two hundred fifty
Speaker 1: one bitcoin worth three hundred and seventy two million dollars UM.
Speaker 1: It's a lot, and the market absorbed that without dropping more.
Speaker 1: It did. I think it dropped it down to about
Speaker 1: high nineteens and then it popped back up just above twenty.
Speaker 1: So um, like right when it was sitting on that
Speaker 1: you know, historical kind of point of that, you know,
Speaker 1: two hundred moving day average, so to speak. Um, then
Speaker 1: those eighteen thousand bitcoin got dumped in the market and
Speaker 1: it dropped it a little bit lower, but now it
Speaker 1: seemed to absorb it and come back up, and uh,
Speaker 1: maybe we don't have any more of these big liquidations there.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think one thing I was looking at was, um,
Speaker 1: you know, potentially the Celsius position getting liquidated. But they've
Speaker 1: been able to continue to bring that level down and
Speaker 1: now they're and I was afraid that, you know, these
Speaker 1: these Wall Street raiders, we're going out and really targeting
Speaker 1: these funds and these pegs to try to crash them
Speaker 1: so they can make some extra money, which I believe
Speaker 1: they were. And so seeing that like Celsius peg sitting
Speaker 1: at eighteen thousand, well they're going to hunt that, right, Well,
Speaker 1: fifteen thousand, maybe they hunt that. Now it's down to
Speaker 1: I believe about four or five thousand. I don't see
Speaker 1: them trying to even bother with that, right, So, I
Speaker 1: don't know if there's any more of these big I
Speaker 1: mean these bitcoin miners, and they've dumped the majority of
Speaker 1: what they were sitting on now, Um they still have
Speaker 1: some of these big miners have a thousand bitcoin they
Speaker 1: could dump, but that's not eighteen thousands. So yeah, we
Speaker 1: don't know. Obviously, anything can happen. Um, things can continue
Speaker 1: to get way worse. We could see the European market
Speaker 1: blow up, and your Japan could blow up, drag Europe
Speaker 1: with it, drag the US into it. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: we don't know, but it seems like maybe we've seen
Speaker 1: the worst of it. And that's kind of what I'm thinking.
Speaker 1: I think it's possible. Yeah, I want to Uh, I
Speaker 1: want to get into what comes next, Like where do
Speaker 1: we go from here? Are we on a four year cycle?
Speaker 1: Do you think those cycles are dead? Like Michael Saylor said, Um,
Speaker 1: do you when do you think? I was on Fox
Speaker 1: News with Charles Paine just before we started and he said,
Speaker 1: when will bitcoin get back on track? I'll ask you
Speaker 1: that same question. Um, So I'm gonna be back with
Speaker 1: that and more. You're listening to the Mark Ma Show.
Speaker 1: We're talking about of course, the decentralized Revolution, talking about bitcoin, cryptocurrencies,
Speaker 1: the greater macro markets. I'm in the studio with t
Speaker 1: x m C. You can find them on Twitter at
Speaker 1: t x mc Trades, and we're talking about what we've
Speaker 1: been talking about, what has been dragging bitcoin down? Have
Speaker 1: we found the bottom? And now we'll get into what
Speaker 1: comes next and what kind of time frames and of
Speaker 1: course none of us know, but we're gonna guess about it.
Speaker 1: So I'll be back with that in more in a minute.
Speaker 1: Don't go away, I'll be right back. All right, Welcome back.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Mark mo Show. We're talking about
Speaker 1: the Decentralized Revolution, talking about bitcoin, talking about cryptocurrencies, talking
Speaker 1: about the greater macro markets. If you're just tuning in,
Speaker 1: you when you've missed a whole bunch, I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: try to catch you back up. But good news for
Speaker 1: you. You You can catch this on demand on the podcast.
Speaker 1: You can just search Mark Moss Podcast or Mark mos Show.
Speaker 1: Find out on any of your podcast apps, the I
Speaker 1: Heart Music app, of course, iTunes app, etcetera. Now I'm
Speaker 1: in the studio with t x MC. You can find
Speaker 1: them on Twitter at t x MC trades. Now, Um,
Speaker 1: before we went on the break, I said, let's now
Speaker 1: shift to we've kind of set up what's going on
Speaker 1: in the world all these things. Of course we have
Speaker 1: no idea. All we're trying to do is speculate. Now,
Speaker 1: markets are a discounting mechanism. So basically that's what markets do.
Speaker 1: They try to guess if a if a price is
Speaker 1: going to be higher in the future or lower, right,
Speaker 1: and so then we're just here trying to play along.
Speaker 1: So we kind of set the problem up pretty well.
Speaker 1: I think we've kind of both agreed that we've seen
Speaker 1: this massive liquidations that's brought it down. Maybe there's not
Speaker 1: a bunch of more liquidations in front of it. Of course,
Speaker 1: if we if we used very simple terminology, markets stopped
Speaker 1: going down when there's no more sellers, and so have
Speaker 1: we washed out the majority of the sellers. You you
Speaker 1: talked about getting back below the two thousand seventeen peak.
Speaker 1: That was good. We talked about getting rid of all
Speaker 1: the level ridge. I think that was good. We talked
Speaker 1: about the bitcoin miners getting rid of all their books.
Speaker 1: I think that was a lot of liquidity. So how
Speaker 1: many how many sellers are left. We don't know, but
Speaker 1: they may or may not keep going down. We don't know,
Speaker 1: Um what what what happens or what makes them go
Speaker 1: back up? Now we know historically we've kind of moved
Speaker 1: on this four year having cycle. Um, could it be
Speaker 1: possible that it takes three or four years to get
Speaker 1: back to an all time high? Um? Do you think
Speaker 1: it happens sooner? What's your kind of thinking process as
Speaker 1: to where we go from here? Yeah, that's a really
Speaker 1: good question. That's something I spend a lot of time
Speaker 1: thinking about. UM. And you know, obviously, like you eloquently said,
Speaker 1: we don't exactly know what's going to happen. We don't
Speaker 1: know exactly the timeline, but there are some things we
Speaker 1: do know. One of those things is, like you mentioned
Speaker 1: a few minutes ago in the earlier segment, that bitcoin
Speaker 1: has existed through a secular bowl. And in that secular bowl,
Speaker 1: inflation has always been about two percent or better or less.
Speaker 1: And we're now in a in a regime where I
Speaker 1: think it's reasonable to believe that inflation will not be
Speaker 1: at two percent anytime soon. It's probably going to stay
Speaker 1: elevated somewhere who knows where? Five six percent, four percent.
Speaker 1: Any of those values are very hard societally to stomach
Speaker 1: for a sustained period of time. And I and and
Speaker 1: I'll bring everyone's detention to the fact that if we
Speaker 1: get it down from eight point six to five or
Speaker 1: four or three or even two, it doesn't really help you.
Speaker 1: So to the point I made earlier talking about len
Speaker 1: Alden's message of food prices went up twelve percent, bye
Speaker 1: bye bye. When pay went up six percent, so food
Speaker 1: prices went up, gas prices went up, you can't afford them. Now,
Speaker 1: if inflation goes down to six or five or four
Speaker 1: or even back to two, that doesn't mean the prices
Speaker 1: actually came back down. That just means they keep continue
Speaker 1: going up, but only slower. So exactly, it's a gread
Speaker 1: of change. So even if even if inflation is like
Speaker 1: you said, at four percent, still going up four percent
Speaker 1: a year from where it was already elevated right from
Speaker 1: we already had forty year highs and inflation so and
Speaker 1: wages are just getting further and further behind that. So
Speaker 1: I think that we are in an environment where it's
Speaker 1: the past four year cycle pattern for bitcoin I think
Speaker 1: is under threat of being violated simply because the economic
Speaker 1: landscape behind it has changed. And so you know, what
Speaker 1: if the FED pivots to Quie. Who knows what that
Speaker 1: looks like. But what if they turned the liquidity spigot
Speaker 1: back on, they start reigning helicopter money, and we still
Speaker 1: have five percent inflation, We still have elevated costs, the
Speaker 1: priority of expenditures for the average household, you know, the
Speaker 1: things that they have to pay for. All of those
Speaker 1: things are now more expensive than when they were the
Speaker 1: last time people wanted to buy bitcoin, regular retail people.
Speaker 1: So I think that that that is a climate no
Speaker 1: one alive has ever seen before. It's certainly not in
Speaker 1: the Qui era, where the FED reverses back to easing
Speaker 1: while inflation is still extremely elevated. So I think that
Speaker 1: that will play a factor in how quickly risk appetite
Speaker 1: returns to the kind of upward sustained bull run that
Speaker 1: you know bitcoiners are used to when things are going well.
Speaker 1: So who knows how long exactly that takes. I believe
Speaker 1: that regardless of what happens with Quie, I don't think
Speaker 1: that they can carry this on until next year, like
Speaker 1: deep into next year. I feel like sometime in the
Speaker 1: next calendar year, they're gonna hit the cold wall of
Speaker 1: math and they're going to have to rethink their plans
Speaker 1: simply because of the cost of debt, but the generally speaking,
Speaker 1: if they pay it back. So you're saying you think
Speaker 1: they'll have to come off of this stance and come
Speaker 1: off this pivot in the next twelve months, Well, I
Speaker 1: think so, I mean, and that's a year, meaning by
Speaker 1: December calendar year, between now and next summer, which is
Speaker 1: when the soonest rate hikes are priced in by the market,
Speaker 1: and they've been getting soon closer and closer to the present.
Speaker 1: They've been getting pulled into the present. So I actually
Speaker 1: think it's probably not that long. I'm being conservative. But
Speaker 1: the cost of debt is continuing to rise, while GDP
Speaker 1: is weakening, and tax receeats are are going to be
Speaker 1: threatened by lower spending. There's there's a there's a point
Speaker 1: where they have to have some money to pay their
Speaker 1: their bills. Are they default and they have to get
Speaker 1: that money from somewhere, and so that meets printing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it scares me because the Fed doesn't know what they're doing.
Speaker 1: And Jerome pal just recently told us that we already
Speaker 1: knew that, but if he came out and actually said that,
Speaker 1: and I think if I can't quote him exactly, but
Speaker 1: he said, we've just figured out how little we actually
Speaker 1: know about inflation, or something to that effect. I'm sure
Speaker 1: you heard that, yes, something to that effect. Um I heard,
Speaker 1: I I talked. It was a month or two ago.
Speaker 1: There was a meeting with j Pal Christine Leguard from
Speaker 1: the E c B and Christina Lena Georgina from the
Speaker 1: I m F. And christ Lena said, um, they're they're
Speaker 1: all laughing, and she said, um, I guess we just
Speaker 1: didn't think about the unintended consequences of printing all of
Speaker 1: this money. Heard that we didn't think about that, right,
Speaker 1: And then she said, I guess we're sort of like
Speaker 1: a bunch of eight year olds playing soccer where we
Speaker 1: don't cover the field. We just all follow the ball.
Speaker 1: So she said, we're like a bunch of eight year
Speaker 1: olds Jeron Palsa don't anything about it. So what scares
Speaker 1: me is that, Um, they don't operate with the precision
Speaker 1: of a surgeon with a scalpel, but rather a blunt instrument.
Speaker 1: You know, they're operating with a chainsaw. And so it's
Speaker 1: like they it was like, we can't get the inflation.
Speaker 1: We can't get the inflation. We can't get the inflation.
Speaker 1: We can't get the inflation. They said, we're gonna let
Speaker 1: it run hot. So they were saying, now maybe we'll
Speaker 1: get to four or five percent, but we'll average that
Speaker 1: with being below and so somehow we'll average into a
Speaker 1: two or three percent number. So they were kind of
Speaker 1: okay to let it get to four. Or they got
Speaker 1: to nine, so now you know, eight point six rounded
Speaker 1: up to nine. Now they're saying, we're committed to get
Speaker 1: to two and they're gonna crush all this demand. But
Speaker 1: do you think they're gonna hit two perfectly or are
Speaker 1: they going to overshoot that goal as well? And I'm
Speaker 1: afraid they're gonna overshoot that goal as well. And they
Speaker 1: get they get really dug into these positions where we're
Speaker 1: not even thinking about thinking about raising rates, and they
Speaker 1: let it go on way too long. Everybody knows this.
Speaker 1: I mean you and I we're just guys on you know,
Speaker 1: YouTube in the radio, Like we're not PhDs with a
Speaker 1: you know, a thousand PhDs working for us at the FED.
Speaker 1: And like we knew they were but they were dug
Speaker 1: in on that position, they wouldn't come off of it.
Speaker 1: And now maybe they're too dug in, and I'm afraid
Speaker 1: of that. So we don't know how far they'll go
Speaker 1: before they let it, before they'll come off that pivot.
Speaker 1: But I think everybody agrees at some point it's coming,
Speaker 1: and I just win. Yeah, they definitely are dug in,
Speaker 1: and you know, they love to use that forward guidance.
Speaker 1: Like we said earlier, they've done ninety percent of the
Speaker 1: work just from talking about tightening, and the market has responded.
Speaker 1: And I think because Powell is so committed to telling
Speaker 1: the market what he wants to do ahead of time
Speaker 1: that he's afraid to ever surprise it for any reason.
Speaker 1: Even when the data starkly changes against his plans, he
Speaker 1: still wants to tease out a multi month you know,
Speaker 1: general turning of the barge. And I think that that
Speaker 1: is in a large part why we're in this mess now,
Speaker 1: is his reticence to make quicker changes to his plan,
Speaker 1: so real quick thirty seconds. If they don't pivot, Uh,
Speaker 1: if if they stay stuck on this for the next year,
Speaker 1: kind of to your best case, Uh, do you think
Speaker 1: bitcoin just continues to kind of grind up and down, chop,
Speaker 1: chop people up and stick kind of in this range. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it chops around. Maybe it goes a little
Speaker 1: bit higher at certain points. I think there's there's you
Speaker 1: could make an argument that there's times where maybe we
Speaker 1: get a little bear market rally we've been overdue for one.
Speaker 1: But I don't think that it breaks into any kind
Speaker 1: of price discovery at all until we're well beyond this
Speaker 1: current situation that we're in, and that might be um
Speaker 1: into next year, depending on what a pivot looks like
Speaker 1: whenever that comes, depending on how aggressive that is. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and that's anybody's guests. But what we can what we can,
Speaker 1: what we do know is that we can see booms
Speaker 1: and bus continue to get bigger and bigger and bigger,
Speaker 1: and so uh eight it was a seven billion dollar
Speaker 1: hole they had to fill, end up being about one
Speaker 1: point five trillion. In twenty it was seven five five
Speaker 1: six trillion, and the next one's probably gonna be fifteen trillion. Anyway,
Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. Thanks so much
Speaker 1: for listening. UM, see you next time.