1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,600 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome back to another episode of The Mark 2 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: Moss Show, where we talk about the decentralized revolution that 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: is happening across the world. Of course we're talking about bitcoin, 4 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: talking about cryptocurrencies and the way the world is changing 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 1: looking at the intersection of politics, finance and technology. Now, 6 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: you know, I try to bring to you some educations 7 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 1: you can understand what's really going on, cut through the nonsense, 8 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,599 Speaker 1: through the noise and see the signals, see the real data, 9 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: the latest breaking news, and I try to bring some 10 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: new interesting guests. You don't have to hear me talk 11 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: all the time. And today I am joined in the 12 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: studio by t x m C. You can find them 13 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:37,919 Speaker 1: on Twitter at t x m C Trades and we've 14 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: done a couple Twitter spaces and stuff like that together, 15 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,279 Speaker 1: and uh man, I really enjoy your insights. So thanks 16 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: so much for joining me today, Thanks for having me 17 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 1: on Mark and looking forward to talking to you, buddy. Yeah, 18 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 1: we've gotten into some good conversations on the Twitter spaces, 19 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: but you know, with so many people on there, it's 20 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: hard to like really dig in. But you know, I 21 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: do enjoy the analysis that you've been putting out there. Um. 22 00:00:58,280 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: Kind of a lot of the same stuff that I 23 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: cap you know, obviously bitcoin, but also greater, uh, the 24 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: the why, as I like to call it, so the 25 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: catalyst for it. Um, you know, the macro picture, if 26 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,960 Speaker 1: you will. So we'll talk about all those things. UM 27 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: started off. I saw you tweeted out earlier today that 28 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 1: everything on your chart was green. Bitcoin is green, the 29 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 1: Dixie is green, gold is green, oils green, the bond 30 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: yields are green. What do you make of that. I've 31 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 1: been thinking about that today. Um. You know, I went 32 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: out to lunch with my family and trying to think 33 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: about what I think is going on in the market. 34 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: And I don't have, you know, great answers for all 35 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: of it, but I think that we're kind of at 36 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: an intersection here where the market is trying to figure 37 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 1: out how seriously it takes the FED at trying to 38 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: basically engineer recession. And you know, there's a lot of 39 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: leading economic indicators that are suggesting we're we're heading into 40 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: one or that we're currently in one. But at the 41 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: same time, people see commodities coming down, they suspect that 42 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: inflation has peaked, and they are hoping that that means 43 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: that some of the worst may be behind us. And 44 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: I think that some of that push and pull is 45 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: why on a day in the like today, that the 46 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: many things are up when you would expect. You know, 47 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 1: if the dollar is really strong and oil is really strong, 48 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: maybe we wouldn't see so much strength in tech stocks 49 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: and elsewhere. But everything across the board is green. So 50 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of uncertainty in the market. 51 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 1: That's how I take it. Yeah, well, there's no doubt 52 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: there's a lot of uncertainty in the market. I've never 53 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: probably I don't think I've ever felt more uncertain about 54 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: the markets at any point in my career. And I've 55 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: been through a couple of these bear markets. Um, you know, 56 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: one thing, when you look at the blow off top. 57 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: So if you look at you know, market cycles, any 58 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: if you pick anyone, go back to the dot com 59 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: boom or seventeen bitcoin boom. You see that you go 60 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: into these parabolic runs and it starts sucking in, sucking 61 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: and sucking more and more buyers and goes into this 62 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: parabolic advance and then it gets very volatile at the 63 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: top and then it blows off. But it doesn't doesn't 64 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: always just blow up in a straight line. You know 65 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: that it has the bounces and it gets supervoltal and 66 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 1: and maybe that's just kind of where we're at. UM. 67 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: I was talking with Macro al alf alf Macro yesterday, 68 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 1: and he really focuses a lot on on the bond 69 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: side of things, and he was just saying kind of 70 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 1: the same thing that you're saying, which is the bond 71 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: markets are saying they don't believe the Fed, they don't 72 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: believe the central banks are going to go through with this. 73 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 1: That's what the bonds are pricing in. And so it 74 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: kind of goes along with what you're saying. But it 75 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: is interesting to see, um, the dollar, the Dollar index 76 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 1: as you have on your charter, the d X Y, 77 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: which is the dollar compared to a basket of currency, 78 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: is really just kind of the euro mostly. UM. How 79 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: the dollar has been getting so strong lately, and it 80 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: looks like I was looking at some charts yesterday, it 81 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: was like almost like a direct correlation inverse correlation with 82 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:48,839 Speaker 1: the strength of the dollar and commodities taking a dip 83 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: at the same time, UM, which is interesting. So I 84 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: started trying to look at the commodities priced and other 85 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: currencies to see is it really just the dollar getting 86 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: stronger or the commodities getting weaker. But then in this 87 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: chart that you put to today, we see the DIXIE 88 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: is strong and we see the commodities and other assets 89 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: being strong at the same time. So I thought that 90 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 1: was pretty interesting. Yeah, I think part of what's happening 91 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: with the DIXIE is is the weakening of the euro 92 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: and the yen like, which is kind of what you're 93 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: describing with mostly being the euro. Uh. And so I 94 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 1: think that and I'm certainly not an f X expert. 95 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: I'm still very much trying to learn and get an 96 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:27,040 Speaker 1: idea for intuitively interpreting these these markets. But you know, 97 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 1: the basket, the makeup of the d X Y is 98 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: important to which direction it's going in, and it's not 99 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: always necessarily dollar strength it's leading, but perhaps weakness and 100 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 1: the other members. And I think that's part of what 101 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: it is here, you know. And commodities, Yeah, they they 102 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 1: they've been coming down. They've bounced a little today, But 103 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: I think there's very real concerns about recession, even more 104 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:51,480 Speaker 1: so in Europe than here in the US, and I 105 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,280 Speaker 1: think that's playing a role in the Dixie's strength. Yeah, 106 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: for sure. Well, and we have a situation where, you know, 107 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 1: in the United States, we've been raising rates to talking 108 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: about tightening, not really tightening yet, but talking about tightening, 109 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: when the rest of the world, and back to Europe, 110 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: you know, they've been in a situation where they've been 111 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: trying to ease. Then they said, okay, well we'll try 112 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: to tighten. But as soon as they try to tighten, 113 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 1: things have just gone off the rails and they're quickly 114 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 1: frantically going backwards on that. Christine Leguard talked about something 115 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: called fragmentation, which is basically just a fancy word of 116 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: saying more distribute, redistribution. Right, well, let's just let's just 117 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: take it from the good countries and we'll give it 118 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 1: to the bad countries. And uh, it doesn't sound like 119 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,160 Speaker 1: a good plan of you have you looked into that. 120 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 1: I've been trying to read a little about it. I 121 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: don't I'm not satisfied with my opinion on it right now. 122 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: But yeah, they've got a big mess on their hands. Yeah, 123 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 1: they got a big mess, and it doesn't look like 124 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: it's going to make it make it. That doesnt seem 125 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 1: like they're gonna have a good way getting out of 126 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: this now. I want to talk about, you know, we'll 127 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: talk about this bigger macro picture worth, which I think 128 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 1: is important to understand because it's, you know, the big catalyst. 129 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: It's the fundamental drivers of of of most assets, all 130 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 1: assets pretty much today. And then we'll bring it back 131 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,720 Speaker 1: into bitcoin and we'll talk about that specifically, but if 132 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: we just kind of stick on this macro trend um, 133 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: you know, one of the big fears I think that 134 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: the FED has too and we're starting to see it 135 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: is in the credit markets, and so I think what 136 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 1: the FED wants to do, the central banks want to do, 137 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: is make sure there's enough liquidity to keep the system going. 138 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: And I know you had posted a chart also on 139 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: the corporate credit spreads, so you want to look at 140 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: the bond market. The bond market typically kind of tells 141 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:23,919 Speaker 1: you where the equity markets. The debt markets tell you 142 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: where the stock markets are going to go um, And 143 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: we're starting to see these corporate credit spreads really starting 144 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: to get wide, and it looks like the credit markets 145 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:34,279 Speaker 1: are getting pretty dangerous. To what's your take on that? Yeah, 146 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,600 Speaker 1: I you know, I've been meaning to dig in and 147 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 1: and look at the different layers inside of the credit 148 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 1: spread because you know why, I posted an index that 149 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 1: puts up to them together. Uh, and yeah, it's they've 150 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: been going down for a while. And even if you 151 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: look at emerging markets E T F, or you look 152 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: at H Y G or J and K or any 153 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 1: of those, Uh, it's it's it's been down only. And 154 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: I think that that's that's a really risky place, and 155 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 1: that was in part what blew out in ten and 156 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 1: kind of forced the pal pivot. But also, I mean, 157 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 1: there's so many companies we've got that have propped up 158 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: on debt over the last couple of years, so many 159 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: zombified companies. And uh, you know, with the seeming lead, 160 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: seeming lack of demand for corporate debt, I you know, 161 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: you you greatly accelerate the likelihood of defaults in that market. 162 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: You know, when as people are as buyers are leaving. 163 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: Uh and with rates rising where they are, some of 164 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: these people are gonna get downgraded. It's gonna be harder 165 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: for them to get financing. I think that that that 166 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 1: market is right for some serious deterioration. And we're getting close, 167 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: like you said that chart I posted this morning, Uh, 168 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: we're past the level we were aten that caused PAL 169 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: to pivot at that point in time, But it's unclear 170 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: if that is going to be enough this time around. 171 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: It seems like their focuses elsewhere, probably mostly because of inflation. Yeah, 172 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: and I think I think that, I mean, you just 173 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: nailed it with that point. Um. They've come out and 174 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: said as much. Right, So in the last meeting they had, 175 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 1: Powell said we are committed to getting back to two 176 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: percent inflation. And so you know, they vowed, they promised, 177 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: they're committed, you know, all these big fancy words. But 178 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: I think they're pretty much focused on that number. So 179 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 1: in the past you kind of point back, we're getting 180 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: back to the levels where they had to come off 181 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: of that. So for the listeners, UM J. Powell came in, 182 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: took over the FED and was fired up to to 183 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: change the system, and he wanted to get back to normal, 184 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 1: and he wanted to raise rates back up again and 185 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: all these things. You wanted to decrease the balance sheet, 186 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: all these things. You want to fix the system. And 187 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: very quickly the markets didn't like that and they started 188 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:38,679 Speaker 1: rolling over very fast, and to the point t XMC 189 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: is making, Uh, they were forced to pivot off of 190 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: that because the markets were breaking apart. But today the 191 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: markets are breaking apart worse than we saw that dip. 192 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: But at the same time, they're not ready to pivot, 193 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: and I think it's because they're focused on a completely 194 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: different metric, which which I want to dig into with 195 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: you even more. Um, you're listening to the Market Mos Show. 196 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: We're talking about the Decentralized Revolution, talking about bick going cryptocurrencies. 197 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: We're talking about the markets, the reason why we need 198 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 1: bitcoin and what drives that. I'm in the studio with 199 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,839 Speaker 1: t x m C. You can find them on Twitter 200 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: at t x mc Trades. We're gonna be talking about that. 201 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 1: I want to talk about again, Like I said, the markets, 202 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 1: I want to dig into some unemployment and some other metrics. 203 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 1: Look at what the FEDS focusing on. We're gonna bring 204 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 1: it back to bitcoin and what we think is going 205 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 1: to happen with bitcoin in the near future. I got 206 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 1: a whole lot more planned in a minute when I 207 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: come back, So don't go away, We'll be right back, 208 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,080 Speaker 1: all right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Markma Show. 209 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: We're talking about the Decentralized Revolution. We're talking about bitcoin. 210 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,679 Speaker 1: We're talking about cryptocurrencies. We talk about the what we 211 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: talked about, the why, why is it important? Why will 212 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: the price go up or down? What should we expect, 213 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 1: and so much more. I'm in the studio with t 214 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: x m C. You can find them on Twitter t 215 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 1: x MC trades. And before the break we were talking, 216 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: you had basically had brought up the Powell pivot, the 217 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: Fed pivot in eighteen and UM, how they're looking at 218 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 1: different data. So last time they move of don the 219 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 1: markets and a lot of people. This time we're thinking that, 220 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: you know, maybe they'll let the markets drop before they pivot. 221 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: And now here we are much further depend on which 222 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,839 Speaker 1: end actually're looking at. UM and yet they don't seem 223 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: to be ready to pivot UM. And in my opinion, 224 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 1: I basically have listened to what they said, and they 225 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 1: said they're focused on getting inflation back under control. I 226 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: spoke at a conference two weeks ago, about a week 227 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:27,959 Speaker 1: and a half ago UM and Joseph Waange was there. 228 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: He's a former Fed insider and a Fed Fed bond trader, 229 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:32,679 Speaker 1: and he said the same thing. He said, they're a 230 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 1: committed to that. He said they need to see a 231 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: meaningful movement off of that, so we're at eight point six. 232 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 1: They need to see a seven six and a five 233 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 1: six before they'll do anything. Um. But a lot of 234 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: people also think they'll wait until something breaks. What what 235 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: do you? What do you think about that? Right? That's 236 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,679 Speaker 1: that's the million dollar question, is what question? Yeah? What's 237 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 1: the thing that's going to break? Um? And I think 238 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: there's a there's a lot of different forces that are 239 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 1: working here. Right. You named inflation. That's their clear stated, 240 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:10,079 Speaker 1: um number one priority. It's the number one priority of 241 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 1: voters in a mid term election year. Angry voters. Uh. 242 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:18,079 Speaker 1: And inflation affects everyone. It affects more people than falling 243 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: asset prices do. Right, Like the stock market affects a 244 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,439 Speaker 1: certain percentage of Americans who have a lot of their 245 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: wealth there. But there's half of America or more that 246 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 1: don't have any stock exposure to speak of for anything meaningful, 247 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 1: and so they don't really care so much about what 248 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 1: the SNP is doing. They care about the prices of gas, 249 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 1: the price of shelter, the price of meat and eggs. 250 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 1: I think what we are likely headed for it's hard 251 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 1: to know what the thing is that will break. Maybe 252 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: it's the credit markets, like you and I were just 253 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: talking about we thought it was going to be the 254 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: bond market, but it seems like they've done most of 255 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: their sell off, at least to this point, and maybe 256 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 1: they're waiting for some new narrative that drives yields higher. 257 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:00,080 Speaker 1: I couldn't fathom yields breaking out of a four to 258 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: your trend with record debt, but regardless, it seems bonds 259 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 1: have cooled off a little bit. So with all of 260 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: this talk about unemployment being low, the labor market is strong, 261 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: that's what they keep saying. I really feel that they're 262 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 1: just going to continue tightening until we have some kind 263 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: of a blowout in the labor markets and then they're 264 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 1: forced to seriously consider helping people through stimulus or reinvigorating 265 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,839 Speaker 1: the economy, even though inflation is really high. And I 266 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: think this controlled demolition, which is a term I've heard 267 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 1: a lot of people use. Danielle d Martino Booth has 268 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: talked about this a lot. I feel like over the 269 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: last few months, we haven't seen that that sharp, volatile 270 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 1: fall from a bubble pop like you were describing, and 271 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: it's been more of like this controlled demolition, Like you said, 272 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: the FED hasn't tightened that much. They've talked a lot 273 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:54,199 Speaker 1: about tightening, and the market has done of the work 274 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: for them, and the bond market even got out ahead 275 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: of the Fed a bit, which is why I think 276 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 1: partially it's coming back some, but it I really believe 277 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: they're going to continue to tighten, and because of some 278 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 1: demographic issues, there's only I think, so much labor that 279 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: can really come back, and so they're they're hoping this 280 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 1: to see job openings fall or at least that disparity 281 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: between the people who want to work and the amount 282 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 1: of available work closed down, because that's what they're calling demand. 283 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: And I really think that that as long as inflation 284 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: remains elevated and it continues encouraging them to stay on 285 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,959 Speaker 1: this path, that that they're just gonna push until something 286 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: like that breaks. And if we're about to have a 287 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,719 Speaker 1: Q two earning season, that is, it's anyone's guess how 288 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 1: good or bad it is. And if we see some 289 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 1: surprises to the downside, if there's serious pain inflicted on 290 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 1: consumer spending on the nominal level, because I think most 291 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 1: people are looking at nominal numbers going up because prices 292 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 1: are going up, and they're ignoring the weakness in real numbers. 293 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,839 Speaker 1: But if we see actual falls and consumer spending, uh, 294 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: that might start to wake up the FED. Because the 295 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 1: the economy is powered by the consumer. It's powered by 296 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: their spending, and that is what powers tax receipts, which 297 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 1: currently are not enough to pay the government's obligations. They 298 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: have to get money from somewhere. So there's a there's 299 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 1: a certain point where falling GDP is antithetical to the 300 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: FED maintaining good standing on the debt. Yeah. Yeah, I 301 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 1: mean there's so many levers. It's it's it's such an 302 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: intricate web to sit there to try to unweave if 303 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: you would, you know. And it's like the one thing 304 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 1: we can see is that if they're committed to bring 305 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: in inflation down and they're talking about price inflation, so 306 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: the price of consumer goods and so when you talk 307 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 1: about gas, gas prices are a big thing. We see 308 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: the President tweeting about that all the time. Doesn't know 309 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: what he's talking about, but he's still tweeting about it. 310 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: We know it's a hot point, right, So gas prices, 311 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: food prices. I commented on a tweet from Lynn Alden 312 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 1: earlier today talking about how UM food prices have gone 313 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: up by twelve percent in the same time that, um, 314 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: what is it? She said, the price of food used 315 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: at home rose twelve percent last year while average wages 316 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 1: rose six percent, and so like that's a big problem 317 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 1: for people to have. And I had said, basically, humans 318 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: can take a lot of pain and struggle brought on 319 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: by central planners as we peak approach peak centralization. But 320 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 1: the catalyst that always swings the pendulum back is always food. 321 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 1: Because if you if you can't eat or feed your family, 322 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: it's time for change. And so we have food and energy, right, 323 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: those are kind of the two main things that you 324 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 1: need to live, um. And so people are screaming about that. 325 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 1: And so the FED can't print more food or energy, right, 326 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 1: they can't do that. And there was a testimony I 327 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: talked about I think a week or two ago, and 328 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: it was a Senator John Kennedy and he was questioning J. 329 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 1: Powell and he said, so, you know there's two levers, right, 330 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 1: supply and demand, and the FED can't increase supply, So 331 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: you're focused on destroying demand, is that right? And J. 332 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: Pale is like, yeah, right, we're focused on destroying demand. 333 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 1: They talked about we need to bring stocks down to 334 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: lower a man, so the wealth effect, right, So if 335 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: they make people feel poor, their retirements come down, their 336 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: house come down, etcetera. They just spend less. And so 337 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 1: I think I think the point that you're making, at 338 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 1: least I think is that I'm agreeing with, is that 339 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: looking at the consumer spending is probably a better indicator 340 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: than the CPI because the CBI is more of like 341 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: a lagging indicator. And if they're starting to spend less 342 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 1: than we know, the prices might be coming down. Is 343 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: that kind of what you're seeing. It is, Yeah, it is. 344 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: They're spending and their wages are the things that I 345 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: watch a lot, and you know, real wages are quite negative. Uh, 346 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: and real consumer spending is not strong despite nominal values 347 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 1: being elevated because prices have gone up. You know, there's 348 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: certain things people just have to buy. You know, it 349 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 1: doesn't really matter how expensive it is. They can only 350 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: you know, choose the cheapest item on the shelf so 351 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 1: many times for that basket of eggs that they must have, right, yeah, yeah, man, 352 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: and so and then so this is the problem in 353 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: the US. But as we talked about, there's a problem 354 00:16:55,760 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 1: globally and uh, the whole the whole financial system is 355 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: changing right before our very eyes, which is pretty interesting. Um, 356 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,879 Speaker 1: we can see emerging markets are dropping like flies and 357 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 1: now there's protests all over the world with uh, we 358 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: see you know, currency is going down. Now we see 359 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: countries going basically to a standstill, stopping and basically a 360 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: new payment system that the bricks nations are setting up 361 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: in real time. So we have all these catalysts, which 362 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,439 Speaker 1: really signifies the world is kind of changing as we 363 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 1: know it. But what does that mean for bitcoin? And 364 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:29,640 Speaker 1: that's some questions I want to get into you when 365 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,199 Speaker 1: we get back here in a second. I'm in the 366 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 1: studio UM with t x MC. You can find them 367 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 1: on Twitter at t x mc Trades. We're talking about 368 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 1: the bigger macro economic picture of what's going on with debt, 369 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: cp I, what the Fed is gonna do when they're 370 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 1: gonna do it, and then ultimately I want to bring 371 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: this back to what does it mean for bitcoin. Bitcoin 372 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: has been only been around for what we've been in 373 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 1: the longest bowl run in history, and if we go 374 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 1: into a secular bear market, what does that mean? It's 375 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:58,640 Speaker 1: pretty interesting, So I want to talk about that and 376 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 1: more with t x MC trades. Um, you're listening to 377 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 1: the Mark mos Show. I'm gonna be back with that 378 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 1: and more in a minute, So don't go away, we'll 379 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 1: be back, all right, Welcome back. You are listening to 380 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: the Mark Moa Show. We're talking about the decentralized revolution 381 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 1: that the world is going through changing right before our 382 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,880 Speaker 1: very eyes, led by the catalyst of decentralized technology, which 383 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: is bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and more. Now I'm in the studio 384 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,360 Speaker 1: with t x m C t m x MC trades 385 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 1: on Twitter, and we're talking about some of these catalysts 386 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 1: happening in the United States, uh, and the global financial 387 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: system for that matter. So you know, I know you've 388 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: done a lot of on chain metrics looking at bitcoin, 389 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: you know, looking at it from a bunch of different angles, 390 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 1: and it seems like we've seen a lot. We've seen 391 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: we've seen a lot of massive movements inside the bitcoin space. Specifically. 392 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 1: One of the things that it seems like to me, 393 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 1: and I'd love to get your take on this, is 394 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: that it looks like bitcoin has been this kind of 395 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,359 Speaker 1: canary in the coal mine, if you will. So the 396 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: FEDS started saying they were gonna start raising rates. In 397 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: November of last year, Bitcoin starts selling off pretty quickly 398 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:07,120 Speaker 1: much pretty far ahead of of the stock market. UM, 399 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,439 Speaker 1: and now it seems to have kind of found this bottom. 400 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,959 Speaker 1: I think it's interesting when markets stopped going down on 401 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 1: bad news. So like we saw the terror Luna liquidation, 402 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: which was very bad news, and it crashed. And then 403 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: we saw, you know, the dominoes continue to fall, more 404 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: contagion and you know, the Celsius and the ft X, 405 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:26,399 Speaker 1: and it's just continue to get on and on and on. 406 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 1: But now we're still seeing more bad news. We started 407 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: seeing massive bitcoin mining liquidations happening, but yet the markets 408 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:37,120 Speaker 1: aren't moving down anymore. So what's your take on that? 409 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 1: Do you think the markets have taken the bad news. 410 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 1: We've absorbed it, and now these even more liquidation of 411 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 1: miners aren't bringing the markets down. So you know, definitely 412 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 1: those first moves down, UM, the energy behind them, there 413 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 1: was a clear reason to push the market down right there. 414 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: It was counterparty risk, unsecured debt, UH and liquidations. I 415 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 1: we've seen most of that now, UM, and you know, 416 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,720 Speaker 1: it's we're kind of in a weird place here because 417 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:12,119 Speaker 1: appetite for risk is essentially non existent. Obviously, there are 418 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 1: people who always want to buy bitcoin when it's on 419 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 1: a discount. I don't really mean those people, but just 420 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 1: general market appetite for risk is way down, and I 421 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 1: think that people are still kind of waiting to see 422 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 1: what happens. Market participants broadly don't know what's going to happen. 423 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 1: You know, we've got cp I next week. Q two 424 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,120 Speaker 1: earnings are about to come in. We're about to find 425 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 1: out if we're actually in a technical recession or not 426 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks from now. So there's a 427 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: lot of things the market's waiting for. And uh, I 428 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: think that it it's per it's certainly possible that bitcoin 429 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 1: might have reached a bottom. You know, we came all 430 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 1: the way down. We broke the all time high seventeen 431 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 1: all time high, which we hadn't done before in a 432 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 1: in a bull market pullback. So that really kind of 433 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,919 Speaker 1: shook a lot of people's narratives and some of the 434 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: dogmatic beliefs about what bitcoin cannor can't do. And I 435 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 1: think some of that is healthy long term for bitcoin, 436 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,439 Speaker 1: for any asset, kind of shake loose. Some I don't know, 437 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 1: irrational beliefs like that so I think we've gone through 438 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,400 Speaker 1: most of that kind of pain. Obviously, something else could 439 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,399 Speaker 1: happen that pushes us down further. But I think that 440 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: if you look, if you look at some of the 441 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: other bear markets, just for Bitcoin alone, granted they came 442 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: in that secular bowl that you were talking about, Mark, 443 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: but you know their bitcoin goes to these long periods 444 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 1: of reset. You know, it can be months. Sometimes there's 445 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: been times where it's been years before it gathers momentum. Again, 446 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,439 Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think this will be years, but I 447 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 1: do think that you're absolutely right. I like what you 448 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 1: said about it being a fire alarm. Uh. You know, 449 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: my my buddy Checkmate, who's the lead analyst at glass Node, 450 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: he was one of the first people I heard say 451 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: that a long time ago, that it's like the last 452 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: functioning fire alarm. I think because it's a it's probably 453 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 1: possibly the last great free market. Because it's a highly 454 00:21:54,960 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: liquid instrument that runs three and it's borderless, it allows 455 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 1: itself to react to changing economic conditions more quickly and 456 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 1: more violently than most other assets and markets, and I 457 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 1: think that's why it functions so well. Now, I I 458 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: would agree with the one of the most free markets 459 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 1: that we have. Doesn't mean it's not manipulated. It's it's 460 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: it's heavily manipulated by these big movements because it's such 461 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 1: a small market cap. But you know, so back to 462 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 1: kind of this just this cascading event that we're talking about, right, 463 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 1: So the Terra Luna blow up, they had to dump 464 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 1: all their bitcoin they had in reserves, and then the 465 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 1: next Domino, and then you've got the Celsius liquidations and 466 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: three Arrows capital and you know all the liquidations don't 467 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,719 Speaker 1: need to go through all those But um, you know 468 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,160 Speaker 1: supply and demand, right, so, um, we can make things 469 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 1: super complicated, but we can also make them very simple. 470 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 1: And like markets or prices are set by supply and 471 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: demand imbalances in the market, and so there was more 472 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:55,120 Speaker 1: people selling than there were people buying, so it pushed 473 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 1: the price down. But now, um, to these giant liquidations 474 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: that we saw, uh, and we saw some big ones, right, 475 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: was eighteen thousand bitcoin were dumped unto the market something 476 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: like that. Um, big big numbers, but the market's gobbled 477 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 1: those up pretty fast. So you would have like to 478 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 1: to the point you were making there earlier that a 479 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: lot of that risk appetite has gone, which I would agree. Um, 480 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 1: it's been trading closely. Like with the NASDAC tech stocks, 481 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: they're out of favor right now. Um. But now bitcoin 482 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 1: is at a four billion market cap. It's it's very tiny, 483 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: and you have these like true believers that believe in 484 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: it for the long term, and so they it's not 485 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 1: a risk appetite for them. It's like, hey, I I 486 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 1: believe this. I'm I can wait five years, I can 487 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 1: wait ten years. And we know that historically under twenty 488 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,439 Speaker 1: thousand is like a historic buying a cheap, cheap moment, 489 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 1: and so we saw it sell down, sell down, cell down, 490 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: cell down. But now eighteen thousand bitcoin dumped in the 491 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 1: market and they got gobbled up. I mean that seemed 492 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 1: pretty strong to me. Yeah, I mean it can definitely 493 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,679 Speaker 1: absorb some cell pressure, right. And and it depends on 494 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 1: how those coins are dumped. You know, if if they're 495 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 1: sold slowly over a period of time, if the bots 496 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,680 Speaker 1: kind of distribute them the right way, similarly to the 497 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: way that Michael Sailor buys bitcoin. Uh, then it can 498 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 1: possibly just be absorbed by regular market liquidity. Uh. It's 499 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 1: it's definitely possible but I think, you know, that kind 500 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,800 Speaker 1: of fervor where people just want to own bitcoin and 501 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: they're willing to market by to get that bitcoin wherever 502 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: it is. Uh, that kind of appetite. I think we 503 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: might be some time away for or we were waiting 504 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 1: for some kind of an economic catalyst, whether it's they 505 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,640 Speaker 1: turned QUEUEI back on and everyone thinks that solves the problem, 506 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: whatever it is. I think a lot of people are 507 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 1: waiting for that. UM. That's where I think we will 508 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 1: see a sustained up trend. And I think maybe until that, 509 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 1: until we could agree that risk appetite broadly is more 510 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 1: um more palpable. I think that we're in for more volatility. 511 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,159 Speaker 1: We might get a bear market rally and then it 512 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 1: might come back down, you know. Sure. Yeah, And back 513 00:24:58,040 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 1: to kind of what I was saying earlier, like at 514 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 1: the top of these these peak market cycles, we just 515 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 1: get lots of volatility, but just for some numbers. I 516 00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 1: was just looking here. So in the last two weeks 517 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 1: of June, bitcoin miners dumped eighteen thousand, two hundred fifty 518 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: one bitcoin worth three hundred and seventy two million dollars UM. 519 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 1: It's a lot, and the market absorbed that without dropping more. 520 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 1: It did. I think it dropped it down to about 521 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 1: high nineteens and then it popped back up just above twenty. 522 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,160 Speaker 1: So um, like right when it was sitting on that 523 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 1: you know, historical kind of point of that, you know, 524 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 1: two hundred moving day average, so to speak. Um, then 525 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 1: those eighteen thousand bitcoin got dumped in the market and 526 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 1: it dropped it a little bit lower, but now it 527 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 1: seemed to absorb it and come back up, and uh, 528 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,240 Speaker 1: maybe we don't have any more of these big liquidations there. 529 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 1: I mean, I think one thing I was looking at was, um, 530 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 1: you know, potentially the Celsius position getting liquidated. But they've 531 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: been able to continue to bring that level down and 532 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 1: now they're and I was afraid that, you know, these 533 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 1: these Wall Street raiders, we're going out and really targeting 534 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,239 Speaker 1: these funds and these pegs to try to crash them 535 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 1: so they can make some extra money, which I believe 536 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 1: they were. And so seeing that like Celsius peg sitting 537 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: at eighteen thousand, well they're going to hunt that, right, Well, 538 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 1: fifteen thousand, maybe they hunt that. Now it's down to 539 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 1: I believe about four or five thousand. I don't see 540 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 1: them trying to even bother with that, right, So, I 541 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 1: don't know if there's any more of these big I 542 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,879 Speaker 1: mean these bitcoin miners, and they've dumped the majority of 543 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 1: what they were sitting on now, Um they still have 544 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,399 Speaker 1: some of these big miners have a thousand bitcoin they 545 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 1: could dump, but that's not eighteen thousands. So yeah, we 546 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,959 Speaker 1: don't know. Obviously, anything can happen. Um, things can continue 547 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,639 Speaker 1: to get way worse. We could see the European market 548 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 1: blow up, and your Japan could blow up, drag Europe 549 00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,919 Speaker 1: with it, drag the US into it. Um, you know, 550 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,120 Speaker 1: we don't know, but it seems like maybe we've seen 551 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 1: the worst of it. And that's kind of what I'm thinking. 552 00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,439 Speaker 1: I think it's possible. Yeah, I want to Uh, I 553 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,119 Speaker 1: want to get into what comes next, Like where do 554 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: we go from here? Are we on a four year cycle? 555 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,800 Speaker 1: Do you think those cycles are dead? Like Michael Saylor said, Um, 556 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: do you when do you think? I was on Fox 557 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 1: News with Charles Paine just before we started and he said, 558 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,159 Speaker 1: when will bitcoin get back on track? I'll ask you 559 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,280 Speaker 1: that same question. Um, So I'm gonna be back with 560 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 1: that and more. You're listening to the Mark Ma Show. 561 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:16,160 Speaker 1: We're talking about of course, the decentralized Revolution, talking about bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, 562 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 1: the greater macro markets. I'm in the studio with t 563 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:21,639 Speaker 1: x m C. You can find them on Twitter at 564 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: t x mc Trades, and we're talking about what we've 565 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 1: been talking about, what has been dragging bitcoin down? Have 566 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,880 Speaker 1: we found the bottom? And now we'll get into what 567 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 1: comes next and what kind of time frames and of 568 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,159 Speaker 1: course none of us know, but we're gonna guess about it. 569 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:37,120 Speaker 1: So I'll be back with that in more in a minute. 570 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 1: Don't go away, I'll be right back. All right, Welcome back. 571 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,359 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Mark mo Show. We're talking about 572 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 1: the Decentralized Revolution, talking about bitcoin, talking about cryptocurrencies, talking 573 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,960 Speaker 1: about the greater macro markets. If you're just tuning in, 574 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:52,520 Speaker 1: you when you've missed a whole bunch, I'm not gonna 575 00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 1: try to catch you back up. But good news for 576 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 1: you. You You can catch this on demand on the podcast. 577 00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 1: You can just search Mark Moss Podcast or Mark mos Show. 578 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 1: Find out on any of your podcast apps, the I 579 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 1: Heart Music app, of course, iTunes app, etcetera. Now I'm 580 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:09,680 Speaker 1: in the studio with t x MC. You can find 581 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 1: them on Twitter at t x MC trades. Now, Um, 582 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 1: before we went on the break, I said, let's now 583 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,119 Speaker 1: shift to we've kind of set up what's going on 584 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: in the world all these things. Of course we have 585 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,160 Speaker 1: no idea. All we're trying to do is speculate. Now, 586 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:27,159 Speaker 1: markets are a discounting mechanism. So basically that's what markets do. 587 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 1: They try to guess if a if a price is 588 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 1: going to be higher in the future or lower, right, 589 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,119 Speaker 1: and so then we're just here trying to play along. 590 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: So we kind of set the problem up pretty well. 591 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 1: I think we've kind of both agreed that we've seen 592 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 1: this massive liquidations that's brought it down. Maybe there's not 593 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 1: a bunch of more liquidations in front of it. Of course, 594 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:47,479 Speaker 1: if we if we used very simple terminology, markets stopped 595 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: going down when there's no more sellers, and so have 596 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 1: we washed out the majority of the sellers. You you 597 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 1: talked about getting back below the two thousand seventeen peak. 598 00:28:58,080 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 1: That was good. We talked about getting rid of all 599 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 1: the level ridge. I think that was good. We talked 600 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,480 Speaker 1: about the bitcoin miners getting rid of all their books. 601 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 1: I think that was a lot of liquidity. So how 602 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 1: many how many sellers are left. We don't know, but 603 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 1: they may or may not keep going down. We don't know, 604 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,800 Speaker 1: Um what what what happens or what makes them go 605 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 1: back up? Now we know historically we've kind of moved 606 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 1: on this four year having cycle. Um, could it be 607 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 1: possible that it takes three or four years to get 608 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,560 Speaker 1: back to an all time high? Um? Do you think 609 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 1: it happens sooner? What's your kind of thinking process as 610 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 1: to where we go from here? Yeah, that's a really 611 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 1: good question. That's something I spend a lot of time 612 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:41,200 Speaker 1: thinking about. UM. And you know, obviously, like you eloquently said, 613 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 1: we don't exactly know what's going to happen. We don't 614 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 1: know exactly the timeline, but there are some things we 615 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: do know. One of those things is, like you mentioned 616 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 1: a few minutes ago in the earlier segment, that bitcoin 617 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 1: has existed through a secular bowl. And in that secular bowl, 618 00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 1: inflation has always been about two percent or better or less. 619 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 1: And we're now in a in a regime where I 620 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: think it's reasonable to believe that inflation will not be 621 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 1: at two percent anytime soon. It's probably going to stay 622 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 1: elevated somewhere who knows where? Five six percent, four percent. 623 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:17,840 Speaker 1: Any of those values are very hard societally to stomach 624 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 1: for a sustained period of time. And I and and 625 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 1: I'll bring everyone's detention to the fact that if we 626 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 1: get it down from eight point six to five or 627 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: four or three or even two, it doesn't really help you. 628 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,640 Speaker 1: So to the point I made earlier talking about len 629 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 1: Alden's message of food prices went up twelve percent, bye 630 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 1: bye bye. When pay went up six percent, so food 631 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 1: prices went up, gas prices went up, you can't afford them. Now, 632 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,200 Speaker 1: if inflation goes down to six or five or four 633 00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,600 Speaker 1: or even back to two, that doesn't mean the prices 634 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 1: actually came back down. That just means they keep continue 635 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: going up, but only slower. So exactly, it's a gread 636 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,840 Speaker 1: of change. So even if even if inflation is like 637 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: you said, at four percent, still going up four percent 638 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 1: a year from where it was already elevated right from 639 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,720 Speaker 1: we already had forty year highs and inflation so and 640 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,760 Speaker 1: wages are just getting further and further behind that. So 641 00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 1: I think that we are in an environment where it's 642 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 1: the past four year cycle pattern for bitcoin I think 643 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 1: is under threat of being violated simply because the economic 644 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,240 Speaker 1: landscape behind it has changed. And so you know, what 645 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,719 Speaker 1: if the FED pivots to Quie. Who knows what that 646 00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 1: looks like. But what if they turned the liquidity spigot 647 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,080 Speaker 1: back on, they start reigning helicopter money, and we still 648 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,960 Speaker 1: have five percent inflation, We still have elevated costs, the 649 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 1: priority of expenditures for the average household, you know, the 650 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 1: things that they have to pay for. All of those 651 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 1: things are now more expensive than when they were the 652 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: last time people wanted to buy bitcoin, regular retail people. 653 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 1: So I think that that that is a climate no 654 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 1: one alive has ever seen before. It's certainly not in 655 00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 1: the Qui era, where the FED reverses back to easing 656 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:05,400 Speaker 1: while inflation is still extremely elevated. So I think that 657 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 1: that will play a factor in how quickly risk appetite 658 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 1: returns to the kind of upward sustained bull run that 659 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 1: you know bitcoiners are used to when things are going well. 660 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 1: So who knows how long exactly that takes. I believe 661 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 1: that regardless of what happens with Quie, I don't think 662 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 1: that they can carry this on until next year, like 663 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 1: deep into next year. I feel like sometime in the 664 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 1: next calendar year, they're gonna hit the cold wall of 665 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 1: math and they're going to have to rethink their plans 666 00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,880 Speaker 1: simply because of the cost of debt, but the generally speaking, 667 00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 1: if they pay it back. So you're saying you think 668 00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 1: they'll have to come off of this stance and come 669 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: off this pivot in the next twelve months, Well, I 670 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,959 Speaker 1: think so, I mean, and that's a year, meaning by 671 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,320 Speaker 1: December calendar year, between now and next summer, which is 672 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 1: when the soonest rate hikes are priced in by the market, 673 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 1: and they've been getting soon closer and closer to the present. 674 00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 1: They've been getting pulled into the present. So I actually 675 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,720 Speaker 1: think it's probably not that long. I'm being conservative. But 676 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 1: the cost of debt is continuing to rise, while GDP 677 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,200 Speaker 1: is weakening, and tax receeats are are going to be 678 00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 1: threatened by lower spending. There's there's a there's a point 679 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,400 Speaker 1: where they have to have some money to pay their 680 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,960 Speaker 1: their bills. Are they default and they have to get 681 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,120 Speaker 1: that money from somewhere, and so that meets printing. Yeah, 682 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,200 Speaker 1: it scares me because the Fed doesn't know what they're doing. 683 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 1: And Jerome pal just recently told us that we already 684 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:28,040 Speaker 1: knew that, but if he came out and actually said that, 685 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 1: and I think if I can't quote him exactly, but 686 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,560 Speaker 1: he said, we've just figured out how little we actually 687 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 1: know about inflation, or something to that effect. I'm sure 688 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 1: you heard that, yes, something to that effect. Um I heard, 689 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 1: I I talked. It was a month or two ago. 690 00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 1: There was a meeting with j Pal Christine Leguard from 691 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 1: the E c B and Christina Lena Georgina from the 692 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,960 Speaker 1: I m F. And christ Lena said, um, they're they're 693 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 1: all laughing, and she said, um, I guess we just 694 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 1: didn't think about the unintended consequences of printing all of 695 00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,560 Speaker 1: this money. Heard that we didn't think about that, right, 696 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 1: And then she said, I guess we're sort of like 697 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,000 Speaker 1: a bunch of eight year olds playing soccer where we 698 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 1: don't cover the field. We just all follow the ball. 699 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:09,920 Speaker 1: So she said, we're like a bunch of eight year 700 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,280 Speaker 1: olds Jeron Palsa don't anything about it. So what scares 701 00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,360 Speaker 1: me is that, Um, they don't operate with the precision 702 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,360 Speaker 1: of a surgeon with a scalpel, but rather a blunt instrument. 703 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,759 Speaker 1: You know, they're operating with a chainsaw. And so it's 704 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,720 Speaker 1: like they it was like, we can't get the inflation. 705 00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:26,920 Speaker 1: We can't get the inflation. We can't get the inflation. 706 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 1: We can't get the inflation. They said, we're gonna let 707 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,839 Speaker 1: it run hot. So they were saying, now maybe we'll 708 00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 1: get to four or five percent, but we'll average that 709 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,719 Speaker 1: with being below and so somehow we'll average into a 710 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 1: two or three percent number. So they were kind of 711 00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,040 Speaker 1: okay to let it get to four. Or they got 712 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,520 Speaker 1: to nine, so now you know, eight point six rounded 713 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 1: up to nine. Now they're saying, we're committed to get 714 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,880 Speaker 1: to two and they're gonna crush all this demand. But 715 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:53,839 Speaker 1: do you think they're gonna hit two perfectly or are 716 00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:57,480 Speaker 1: they going to overshoot that goal as well? And I'm 717 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,359 Speaker 1: afraid they're gonna overshoot that goal as well. And they 718 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 1: get they get really dug into these positions where we're 719 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 1: not even thinking about thinking about raising rates, and they 720 00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 1: let it go on way too long. Everybody knows this. 721 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:10,839 Speaker 1: I mean you and I we're just guys on you know, 722 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 1: YouTube in the radio, Like we're not PhDs with a 723 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,000 Speaker 1: you know, a thousand PhDs working for us at the FED. 724 00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,279 Speaker 1: And like we knew they were but they were dug 725 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 1: in on that position, they wouldn't come off of it. 726 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 1: And now maybe they're too dug in, and I'm afraid 727 00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,440 Speaker 1: of that. So we don't know how far they'll go 728 00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 1: before they let it, before they'll come off that pivot. 729 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 1: But I think everybody agrees at some point it's coming, 730 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,360 Speaker 1: and I just win. Yeah, they definitely are dug in, 731 00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 1: and you know, they love to use that forward guidance. 732 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,759 Speaker 1: Like we said earlier, they've done ninety percent of the 733 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,960 Speaker 1: work just from talking about tightening, and the market has responded. 734 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 1: And I think because Powell is so committed to telling 735 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,320 Speaker 1: the market what he wants to do ahead of time 736 00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,160 Speaker 1: that he's afraid to ever surprise it for any reason. 737 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 1: Even when the data starkly changes against his plans, he 738 00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,319 Speaker 1: still wants to tease out a multi month you know, 739 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,759 Speaker 1: general turning of the barge. And I think that that 740 00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,960 Speaker 1: is in a large part why we're in this mess now, 741 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:07,279 Speaker 1: is his reticence to make quicker changes to his plan, 742 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:11,520 Speaker 1: so real quick thirty seconds. If they don't pivot, Uh, 743 00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 1: if if they stay stuck on this for the next year, 744 00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,319 Speaker 1: kind of to your best case, Uh, do you think 745 00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,919 Speaker 1: bitcoin just continues to kind of grind up and down, chop, 746 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:24,200 Speaker 1: chop people up and stick kind of in this range. Yeah, 747 00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 1: I think it chops around. Maybe it goes a little 748 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,440 Speaker 1: bit higher at certain points. I think there's there's you 749 00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,840 Speaker 1: could make an argument that there's times where maybe we 750 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,680 Speaker 1: get a little bear market rally we've been overdue for one. 751 00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,080 Speaker 1: But I don't think that it breaks into any kind 752 00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 1: of price discovery at all until we're well beyond this 753 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:42,200 Speaker 1: current situation that we're in, and that might be um 754 00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,400 Speaker 1: into next year, depending on what a pivot looks like 755 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,640 Speaker 1: whenever that comes, depending on how aggressive that is. Yeah, 756 00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,919 Speaker 1: and that's anybody's guests. But what we can what we can, 757 00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,240 Speaker 1: what we do know is that we can see booms 758 00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:55,000 Speaker 1: and bus continue to get bigger and bigger and bigger, 759 00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:59,080 Speaker 1: and so uh eight it was a seven billion dollar 760 00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 1: hole they had to fill, end up being about one 761 00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,520 Speaker 1: point five trillion. In twenty it was seven five five 762 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,480 Speaker 1: six trillion, and the next one's probably gonna be fifteen trillion. Anyway, 763 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,640 Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. Thanks so much 764 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:11,640 Speaker 1: for listening. UM, see you next time.