1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 2: As the President drops the mic on his trip to Europe, 6 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,760 Speaker 2: wrapping a summit of Nordic nations following the NATO Summit, 7 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:23,919 Speaker 2: with a message Russia cannot sustain years of war in Ukraine. 8 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 3: The answer is Putin's already lost the war. Putin has 9 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 3: a real problem. How does he move from here? What 10 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 3: does he do? 11 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 1: And so the. 12 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 3: Idea that there's going to be what vehicle is used? 13 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 3: He could end the war tomorrow. He could just say 14 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 3: I'm out. But what agreement is ultimately reached depends upon 15 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:50,559 Speaker 3: Putin and what he decides to. But there is no 16 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 3: possibility of him winning the war in Ukraine. He's already 17 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 3: lost that war. 18 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 2: That sound from a news conference ending the nord summit. 19 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 2: He's back on Air Force one, heading home and questions 20 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 2: that bring me to the column from Charlie Cook just 21 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 2: a few days ago. Don't expect a Reagan ask bounce 22 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 2: for Biden. Like the fortieth president. He writes, Biden may 23 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:17,839 Speaker 2: enjoy an economic rebound by the time his re election 24 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 2: rolls around, but today's voters are less inclined to give 25 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 2: him credit for it. How about the trip, how about 26 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 2: any of it? With approval ratings depending on the poll, 27 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 2: you're looking at the upper thirties, low forties, engaged in 28 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 2: a reelection campaign with a lot of questions about how 29 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 2: this is going to play out. And that's why we 30 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 2: love the opportunity to talk with Charlie Cook, the founder 31 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 2: and contributor to the Cook Political Report, with Amy Walter, 32 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 2: legendary political analyst, here on Bloomberg Radio. 33 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 4: Charlie, it's great to have you. 34 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 2: Will there be abouts, keep talking, Joe. 35 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 5: I'm enjoying hearing that. You know, it's there's just President 36 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 5: Biden has been I mean, if you look at you 37 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 5: use the gallop pole, just as since Labor Day of 38 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 5: last year, he's been basically within three points of forty percent, 39 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 5: forty forty one. And there's just not much elasticity there 40 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 5: because Democrats aren't going to in terms of approval. Democrats 41 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 5: are not going to abandon him, and Republicans are not 42 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 5: going to approve of him, and so the only leeway 43 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 5: you have is that little five to fifteen percent that 44 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 5: are pure independents. And to the extent that if the 45 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 5: economy really starts to turn around and inflation gets tamed, 46 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 5: it looks like they're getting more and more concerned about 47 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 5: his age and his health. And so that could be, 48 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 5: you know, partially or completely in an offset. 49 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 2: Did you make the fact he didn't attend the dinner 50 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 2: the other night? I saw split screens on social media 51 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 2: of him on the beach over the weekend before he 52 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 2: took off. Republicans really do want to paint him as 53 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 2: too old and too senile and incompetent. Isn't that what 54 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 2: a trip like this is supposed to offset? 55 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the part of the problem is that, 56 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 5: I mean, if you put President Biden and former President 57 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 5: Trump and had him both through one hundred yard dash, 58 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 5: my guess is that Biden would probably win, right. But 59 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 5: the thing is it's more apparent in politics, appearance is 60 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 5: more important than reality. And he just looks old for 61 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 5: his age. He looks older, you know, almost every time 62 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 5: you see him, and he does have that frail look. 63 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 5: So and let's keep in mind that President Reagan was 64 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 5: seventy seven a couple of days away from his seventy 65 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 5: eighth birthday when he left office, and a lot of 66 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:33,119 Speaker 5: people were concerned that that was too old. So this 67 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 5: is it's not a good situation to be in, particularly 68 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 5: if people have a lot of questions about your vice 69 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 5: president as well. 70 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 2: Boy, that's a whole other thing I'd like to ask 71 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 2: you about. But with regard to the economy, we got 72 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 2: the CPI yesterday that now Wall Street threw a big 73 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 2: party that. Boy, the Fed's done its work here. Looks 74 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:55,839 Speaker 2: like we're winding things down. We've maybe won the war 75 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 2: on inflation, or at least we see a path to 76 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 2: winning it. You extend that idea into next year, Charlie, 77 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 2: after a bunch more indicators, job reports, and you might 78 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,119 Speaker 2: see an economy that actually is at two percent inflation. 79 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 2: Maybe they could claim credit for winning this war. Then again, 80 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 2: there are forecasts of us going into a recession right now, 81 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 2: so it's hard to see how this plays out for 82 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 2: the incumbent. 83 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, first of all, I think it'd be 84 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 5: foolish for anybody to, you know, break out a mission 85 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 5: accomplished banner. And we're in a situation and gosh knows, 86 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 5: the Bloomberg Radio audience would be extremely sophisticated economically sophisticated people. 87 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,599 Speaker 5: But it's almost like any time you get good news, 88 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 5: there are negative aspects to it and vice versa. So 89 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 5: that if inflation is coming down and maybe a sign 90 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 5: that the economy is coming down as well, and that 91 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 5: you know, there's a linkage to all these things, and 92 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 5: what is the Fed going to do? And if everything 93 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 5: has the potential of exacerbating something else, and so it 94 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 5: creates a huge economic problem. But politically speaking, that people 95 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 5: are sort of stuck in a really depressed down way 96 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 5: and it's really kind of hard to get people to 97 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 5: think that things are turning around when you know it's 98 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 5: you know, I guess public opinion is very lagging on this, 99 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 5: and so I'm not expecting it to turn. Attitudes about 100 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 5: the economy to turn around anytime soon, which is. 101 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:36,359 Speaker 2: A massive liability for somebody looking to be rehired for 102 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 2: the job. Here, Charlie, we're going to start hearing about fundraising. 103 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 2: We heard from Donald Trump ron of Santas early on, 104 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 2: but of course President Biden is raising money too. What 105 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,479 Speaker 2: are you hearing about how he's doing knowing that he 106 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 2: doesn't have to blow money on the primaries. He's actually 107 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 2: saving for the general election right now. 108 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:57,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't get too wrapped up about fundraising anymore 109 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 5: because both sides have, you know, more money than they 110 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 5: know what to do with. There's a law of diminishing 111 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 5: returns in campaign spending, and uh, you know, I don't 112 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 5: think there's any doubt that both sides will be uh 113 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 5: way past that point where you know, there's there's a 114 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 5: whole lot of utility and additional spending. So I don't. 115 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 5: I mean, you know, whether it's whether it's uh, it's 116 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 5: President Biden or somebody else, they'll have plenty of money 117 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 5: as well, President Trump, former President Trump, or run the 118 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 5: sentis or anybody if they'll have plenty of money. So 119 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 5: I wouldn't. And also, the higher the visibility of the audience, 120 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 5: the less important spending it or the race. The higher 121 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 5: the visibility of the race, the less important spending is 122 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 5: because people are familiar with the candidate. It's they you know, 123 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 5: it's in a When you get into down ballot races 124 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 5: is where spending actually can be you know, more more 125 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 5: influential in the outcome. 126 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 2: Well, it does matter if you're trying to get on 127 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 2: a debate stage, of course, and if we can look 128 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 2: at the Republican side of things, I'd be cure is 129 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 2: your view here? Because we learned today that former Governor 130 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 2: Chris Christi and Senator Tim Scott have both crossed the 131 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 2: threshold the number of donors needed forty thousand, the minimum 132 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 2: needed necessary to qualify for the first Republican debate next month. 133 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 2: We know, of course, Donald Trump and Ronda Santis at 134 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 2: least could be on that stage if they wanted to be. 135 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 2: Both are threatening to boycott it. Do you have a 136 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 2: sense of what that stage is going to look like 137 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:25,679 Speaker 2: in August? 138 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 5: Well, if former President Trump does not participate in the debate, 139 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 5: the question is will the debate? I mean, will anybody? 140 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 5: It's like the tree fall in the woods. Nobody hears it. 141 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 5: I think the ratings would be through the floor. Very 142 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 5: few people would probably watch it, to be honest, and 143 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 5: so I don't see. I'm kind of doubtful that that 144 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 5: Trump will appear. I'm kind of doubtful that the debate 145 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 5: will have any meaningful impact on the race if he's 146 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 5: not there. Actually, if he was there, never to have 147 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 5: a big impact on the race. I mean, I think 148 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 5: he's got this nomination. I wouldn't want to say locked up, 149 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 5: but pretty darn close to locked up, because he's just 150 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 5: has so many advantages here that it's it's pretty and 151 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 5: there's so many other people chewing up, you know, the 152 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 5: space there that there's no there's hard for any of 153 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 5: these people to get any traction. 154 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: Yeah. 155 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 2: Right, latest numbers that are out today from morning consults 156 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 2: give him fifty six percent to Ron de DeSantis's seventeen percent. 157 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 2: And we should note, as we always try to, this 158 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 2: is July seventh through nine, thirty six hundred potential Republican 159 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 2: primary voters, which we like to see instead of the 160 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 2: you know, the the a couple hundred so called adults. 161 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 2: Vivid Ramaswami jumps to third place with eight percent. Is 162 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,319 Speaker 2: this just all noise at this stage of the game, Charlie, 163 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:53,079 Speaker 2: Do you read into these? 164 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 5: I think so? And that eight percent, so you know, 165 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 5: it's a point ahead of Hence. But basically, you've got 166 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 5: you've got you've got Trump, you know, in the low fifties, 167 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 5: you've got the Santis dropping now down into the teens, 168 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 5: and everybody else in single you know, it's basically in 169 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 5: single digits, and and most of them low single digits. 170 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 5: So but it's it's it's it's you know, when you 171 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 5: when you've got a party that where Trump seems to 172 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 5: almost have a trance over, has the Republican Party in 173 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 5: a trance where they're in this bubble where they don't 174 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 5: really believe the substance of the allegations, or they think 175 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 5: it's all politically motivated, or they think that everybody does 176 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 5: it or some combination, or they're in a news bubble 177 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 5: that they're watching, listening, reading news that is awfully conservative, 178 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 5: and oftentimes they're not really you know, they're here hearing 179 00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 5: it downplayed if it's talked about at all. So this just, 180 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 5: you know, all of Trump's problems just aren't penetrating. And 181 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 5: plus they're sort of an attack on any of us 182 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:11,199 Speaker 5: as an attack on all of us, and that that 183 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 5: galvanizes Republicans around him, even if deep down they do 184 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 5: have some reservations about you know, character and things like that. 185 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 2: Well, if you do think, I mean, we're saying fifty 186 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 2: six percent as a trance, I get that. And I 187 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 2: know that you see noise in these numbers. It's very 188 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 2: early on. We're talking about a national poll. We can 189 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 2: poke a lot of holes in this, but momentum is something, 190 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 2: and what we're seeing from Trump in terms of momentum noteworthy, 191 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 2: but also Ron DeSantis falling pretty sharply in a lot 192 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 2: of polls that we've seen over the last month. Do 193 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 2: you buy into that narrative. 194 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think part of it was I 195 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 5: think he started off this year I think somewhat overrated. 196 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 5: I mean that that clearly Trump got danged a bit 197 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 5: from the midterm election outcome, and I think fairly appropriately, 198 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 5: and it kind of depressed his support level. And at 199 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,439 Speaker 5: the same time, DeSantis won reelection by a wider margin 200 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 5: than expected, so that kind of pumped him up. But 201 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 5: after a month or two of that, it sort of 202 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 5: reverted to the mean and went back to where it 203 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 5: was where it was before. And also, it's hard to 204 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 5: it's hard to beat somebody that you won't attack, you know, 205 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 5: a front runner that you're not willing to attack, and 206 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:33,319 Speaker 5: yet if you do attack, you're going to alienate all 207 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 5: these people that you know, the seventy five eighty percent 208 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 5: of Republicans that have a favorable opinion of him, and 209 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 5: so it really is kind of unrealistic for these people 210 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 5: to expect to be able to win if they're not 211 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 5: going to attack, and if the attack, it's probably counterproductive. 212 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 5: So I wouldn't want to be managing one of these 213 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:54,599 Speaker 5: other campaigns. 214 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 2: Well, ask Chris Christie's campaign manager here, because if Ronda 215 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 2: Santis is having trouble winning over the elector, at Christy 216 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 2: actually wins the war on who's liked least. Here in 217 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 2: this Morning Consult poll, almost half of potential primary voters 218 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,559 Speaker 2: hold unfavorable views of the former governor of New Jersey. 219 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 2: He's only got twenty six percent of view him favorably. 220 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 2: That's a deep hole to dig out of. What do 221 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 2: you make of it? 222 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 5: Well, you know, I'm not sure there's I mean, I 223 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 5: went over to went to New Hampshire for Christie's announcement, 224 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 5: and you know, he was fun to watch. He did 225 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 5: a nice job. But the thing about it is, I'm 226 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 5: not sure that the party at Chris Christie and some 227 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 5: of these other people are talking to. I don't know 228 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 5: that it really exists anymore. Because the change that we're 229 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 5: going through a realigning period, and that the Republican Party 230 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:47,719 Speaker 5: is going more downscale, it's going more populist, and it 231 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 5: likes what and how Donald Trump, you know, acts in 232 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 5: what he says and behaves, so that you know, in 233 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 5: the old kind of party you're going to have Rick 234 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 5: Davis on and a couple of minutes in the party 235 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 5: that you know he ran a campaign for for John McCain. 236 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 5: That party doesn't exist anymore. The Bob Dole, the George 237 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:14,079 Speaker 5: HW George W. Bush, that party as it was constituted 238 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 5: in those days doesn't exist anymore. 239 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 4: Incredible. 240 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 2: What's the likelihood if Charlie Cook is writing columns about 241 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 2: no labels or third party candidate next year? 242 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 5: Well, I don't know what the you know, I don't 243 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 5: know if no Labels has any impact whatsoever it's going 244 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 5: to hurt by I can't come up with any scenario 245 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 5: that it would that it would hurt Donald Trump or 246 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 5: any other Republican and for that matter, Cornell West as well. 247 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 5: And you know, if you were talking to national popular Vote, 248 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 5: you were talking about National postle a while ago. Those 249 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 5: things they're basically even right now. The last I think 250 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 5: there have been thirteen national polls out since the first 251 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 5: of June, and Trump was ahead in five, Biden was 252 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 5: ahead and five and three of them were tied. And 253 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 5: the average is basically tied. But that's not you know, 254 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 5: ask Hillary Clinton or Al Gore. That's not how you 255 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 5: decide who wins. And it's in the electoral college. And 256 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,839 Speaker 5: that's where the Republican vote is just so much more 257 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 5: efficiently allocated because Democrats waste a lot of votes, I 258 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 5: mean running up the score, winning California by five million votes, 259 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 5: in New York State by two million, you know, Massachusetts, Illinois, 260 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 5: Maryland by over a million each. Once you have one 261 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 5: more vote than the other guy, you're wasting votes and 262 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 5: it shows up in these national polls, but doesn't mean 263 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 5: squat in terms of winning. To turn seventy electoral votes. 264 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 2: Well, I know a lot of Democrats are awfully worried 265 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 2: about it, and we'd love to have you back as 266 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 2: soon as we can. 267 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: Charlie Cook, this is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg 268 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one 269 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the Tune and a half, Bloomberg 270 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: dot Com, Blomberg Business App. You can also listen live 271 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 272 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven. 273 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 4: Should we be surprised? 274 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 2: That Chris Christie has the highest unfavorables on the Republican 275 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 2: primary trail after seeing his performance before the Faith and 276 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 2: Freedom Conference here in Washington, d C. 277 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 4: Just about a month ago. 278 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 6: He has let us down because he's unwilling, he's unwilling 279 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 6: to take responsibility for any of the mistakes that were made, 280 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 6: any any of the faults that he has, and any 281 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 6: of the things that he's done. And that is not leadership, everybody, 282 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:40,479 Speaker 6: That is a failure of leadership. 283 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 4: That's the moment right there. 284 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 6: And I you could boo all you want, well, but 285 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 6: here's the thing. Our faith teaches us that people have 286 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 6: to take responsibility for what they do. People have to 287 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 6: stand up and take accountability for what they do. 288 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 2: Okay, And so the Morning Consult poll comes out today 289 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 2: and you see the numbers, maybe you heard us talking 290 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 2: about it with Charlie Cook here, widely disliked among the 291 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 2: GP electorate half almost half of potential Republican primary voters 292 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 2: forty six percent unfavorable. 293 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 4: That's compared with twenty six percent of you favorably. 294 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 2: Why don't we just jump off right here with our panel. 295 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Republican strategist. Rick Davis, aforementioned by 296 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 2: Charlie Cook, is with us along with Roger Fisk, principal 297 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 2: at New Day Strategy. It's great to have both of 298 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 2: you here, Rick, What do you make of that? Is 299 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 2: Chris Christie just seen as a spoiler? 300 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 7: Yeah, he's kind of the suicide bomber of this GOP field, right, 301 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 7: I mean he's going to take himself down in the 302 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 7: process of trying to take Trump down. I mean, you 303 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 7: gotta remember he wasn't that popular to begin with. I mean, 304 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 7: you know, he's kind of a discredited you know, governor 305 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 7: of New Jersey, wasn't mainstream. He hugged, you know, Barack Obama. 306 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 7: I mean, there were tons of negatives already piled up 307 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 7: on him, and so the fall from grace wasn't very 308 00:16:55,840 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 7: fall far. But like the role he's got now is 309 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 7: one that frankly, the rest of the field really appreciates 310 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 7: because he spends every waking hour, you know, going after Trump, 311 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 7: and most of these guys don't have, I would say, 312 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 7: the guts to do it, and so you know, whether 313 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 7: he has any impact, there's no real discernible impact right now. 314 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 7: You don't see Trump's negatives going up. He's kind of 315 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 7: a made guy in the public mind. You know, you 316 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 7: really wonder whether or not this, you know, suicide bomber 317 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 7: routine is going to actually be helpful. 318 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 2: Roger back in twenty sixteen, and I know there are 319 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 2: other campaigns where you can point to this, And we 320 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 2: had that stage of you know, seventeen Republicans at the 321 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 2: beginning of the campaign. Everybody got a month. There was 322 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,120 Speaker 2: Herman Caine month. Of course, there was eventually the more 323 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,640 Speaker 2: than Donald Trump month, but there was a Chris Christie month. 324 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,239 Speaker 2: He actually had a moment when he was peaking. There 325 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 2: will he experience that in this campaign. 326 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 8: Well, first off, Joe, thanks so much for having me 327 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 8: on and having me on with Rick. I would argue 328 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 8: that Chris Christie's month actually occurred back in twenty twelve 329 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 8: when the national Republican machinery was really looking to him 330 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 8: to run and he decided not to, which is another 331 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:12,640 Speaker 8: example of how elusive and difficult to measure but precious 332 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:17,199 Speaker 8: the art of timing is. In American politics. For example, 333 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 8: Barack Obama famously had only been a US Senator for 334 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 8: two years when he decided to run. But when you 335 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 8: have the national establishment coming to you kind of saying 336 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 8: like you have a window here, you're very well served 337 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 8: to listen to that. He's banking it all on New Hampshire. Clearly, 338 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 8: to focus in on your Chris Christy specific question, there's 339 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,959 Speaker 8: probably normally there would have been three tickets out of Iowa. 340 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 8: I think there's probably two now. And I don't think 341 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,679 Speaker 8: that second ticket is going to be populated by anyone 342 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 8: that actually served or prominently endorsed the former president. It's 343 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 8: going to be someone like a Tim Scott or someone 344 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 8: like that that isn't directly connected with the Trump trajectory. 345 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 2: You mentioned Tim Scott. Rick saw this news today. The 346 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 2: senator from South Carolina and the aforementioned Chris Christy have 347 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 2: each announced that they've got the donors, the forty thousand 348 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 2: donors to cross that threshold to get on the debate 349 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 2: stage next month. I don't know if you expected both 350 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 2: of them to get there, but we've got at least 351 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 2: four candidates now we know can be on the stage. 352 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 4: How important is this news for each of their campaigns? 353 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, look, it's good news. You would expect Tim Scott 354 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 7: to do it. He's been an active fundraiser throughout his 355 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 7: Senate career. He's got a great fundraising operation. Chris Christy 356 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 7: had to start from scratch, so it's a little surprising 357 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 7: that he was able to make the cut. But he's 358 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 7: not without his resources. And there are a lot of 359 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 7: anti Trump people who want to bank Christy into this debate, 360 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 7: even though Trump might not be on it. So I 361 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 7: think it's I think it's really good news for Christy. 362 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 7: It gives him a little bit more buoyancy in his 363 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,919 Speaker 7: campaign with otherwise, I agree with Roger. I mean, you know, 364 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 7: the sun kind of set on him in twenty twelve. 365 00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,680 Speaker 7: I think that's a really good analysis. And and yet 366 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 7: you know we're talking about him today, So that's a 367 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 7: good day in the Chris Christie campaign. 368 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 4: Well, I guess so if you. 369 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 2: Keep shooting from the hip, somebody's gonna mention it. How 370 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 2: about this debate stage, Roger, what's your gut say? How 371 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 2: many candidates actually show up for this debate? 372 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 8: Well, first, let me let me focus on a tactical 373 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 8: element if I may, which is I would I would 374 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,640 Speaker 8: have counseled a campaign not to announce that they made 375 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 8: this threshold. That's essentially like me putting out a press 376 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 8: release that I did one push up or something, you know, 377 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,640 Speaker 8: the idea that you want to go out and say 378 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 8: that you measured, you know, essentially knee high to a 379 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 8: flee I would have just been like, of course, we 380 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 8: were always going to be in the debate, what are 381 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 8: you talking about, and just and just brush it off, 382 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 8: because what you don't want to do at this point 383 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 8: is do anything that reinforces the idea that you're in 384 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 8: this kind of bottom tier. Or what you know is 385 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 8: when you look at the far left and the far 386 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 8: right of these large debate stages sometimes called the kids 387 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 8: table because they tend to stack people towards the center. 388 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 8: So I think it was a tactical mistake on the part. 389 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 8: And then again it will end up being eight, ten, eleven, 390 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 8: twelve people, and then everyone will be looking for that moment. 391 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 8: And oddly enough, Chris Christy, who criticized Marco Rubio for 392 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,679 Speaker 8: having a can comment, is definitely going to have a 393 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 8: couple can comments himself. Then the question is is what 394 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,159 Speaker 8: does the National Conversation pick up and run with for 395 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 8: the twenty four to forty eight hours after that first debate. 396 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 2: We talked about these headline numbers from the Morning consult 397 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 2: Pull with Charlie Cook Rick Donald trumpet fifty six percent. 398 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 2: Charlie described him as having the electorate in a trance, 399 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,199 Speaker 2: the Republican electorate in a trance. 400 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 4: Are you as. 401 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 2: Convinced by this leads as he is? 402 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 7: You know, look, I think you got to the other 403 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 7: point Charlie Cook made, which is, you know, this is 404 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,679 Speaker 7: not the camp you know, the Republican electorate that you 405 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 7: know I knew back in two thousand and eight is 406 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 7: exactly right. I mean, this is a much more sort 407 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 7: of you know, white, rural male oriented. 408 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 2: Uh. 409 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:04,919 Speaker 7: And the Trump electorate is you know, less educated. And 410 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 7: I don't own mean that as a negative. I mean, 411 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 7: you know, you want, you know, white blue collar voters, 412 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,199 Speaker 7: the Democrats want a lot of elections with them, you know, 413 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 7: who don't have college educations. But when you split this sample, 414 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 7: you know, in the Morning Console poll, and you say, 415 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 7: you know who's looking for an option within even the 416 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 7: Donald Trump supporters, the ones who have college educations, mostly 417 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 7: suburban voters, still Republicans, which is amazing, two to one 418 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 7: say they they want an option to Donald Trump. So 419 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:38,199 Speaker 7: there's actually an opportunity within these numbers. It's not just 420 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 7: a flat you know, the party a majority of the 421 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 7: party wants Donald Trump to be the nominee, just like 422 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 7: in the Democratic Party where a majority of the party 423 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 7: doesn't want the president to be the nominee. So, uh, 424 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 7: there's there's some you know, sunshine in there for the 425 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:55,919 Speaker 7: rest of this field. But they got to find a 426 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 7: way to pull those voters off of Trump and onto themselves. 427 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 2: Roger, you wake up at night losing sleep over this 428 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 2: no label's idea. 429 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 8: I mean, it would be cataclysmic. Whoever would embark on 430 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 8: that would have to know that the fate of the 431 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 8: Western Democratic experiment would largely sit on their conscience and 432 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 8: be waiting for them on judgment day. 433 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 4: No, none at. 434 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 8: All, but it would be It would be I think, 435 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 8: tremendously unwise, and neither can I necessarily see you know, 436 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,160 Speaker 8: when when Ross Perot ran and things like that, there 437 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 8: were people out there channing in the streets for a 438 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 8: third party, don't I don't see that. I don't see 439 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 8: that appetite in the national conversation because it's become much 440 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 8: more binary and much more tribal. To build on some 441 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,359 Speaker 8: of Rick's points, but I think the backlash to someone 442 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 8: who would embark on that, I certainly don't envision Joe 443 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 8: Manchin doing it. Would be significant and the only motivation 444 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,719 Speaker 8: for someone to embark on something like that would be 445 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 8: similar to the the reasons why we were speculating around 446 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 8: Chris Christy entering this, which is really a torpedo someone 447 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 8: already in the race, because it's certainly not a legitimate 448 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 8: exercise that would be focused on winning. 449 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 2: Less than a minute? Rick, is there anyone who would 450 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 2: actually do it? Larry Hogan's floating around Joe Manchin. No 451 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 2: one's actually raising their hand and volunteering though. 452 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 7: Well, now mansions a dead man walking politically, right, I mean, 453 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,159 Speaker 7: like he's so far behind in West Virginia, he's looking 454 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 7: for a job, and he and John Huntsman, a sometimes 455 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:33,200 Speaker 7: nominal Republican you know, are standing together this week and 456 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:37,400 Speaker 7: then doing the town hall, you know, sponsored by No Labels. 457 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,880 Speaker 7: So look, I mean, I totally agree with Roger, but 458 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,359 Speaker 7: the reality is, I don't think No Labels is listening 459 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 7: to any of this kind of input, and they are 460 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 7: a wrecking crew ready to you know, sort of destroy 461 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 7: Western politics as we know. 462 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you both agree on this. It's always 463 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 2: good to know the end of the world is near 464 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 2: our great panel, Roger Fisk and Rick Davis are back 465 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 2: with their view on the president's trip abroad and his 466 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 2: own fund raising prowess. 467 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 468 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,399 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 469 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 470 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 471 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 2: President Biden on his way home from the big trip 472 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 2: two summits, one trip. 473 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 4: And a visit to the UK while he was at it. 474 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,400 Speaker 2: Pretty successful for NATO, unless you're Vladimir Putin. Well maybe 475 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 2: he would even agree on that. As they added Sweden 476 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,840 Speaker 2: cleared through a bunch of red tape got F sixteen's 477 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 2: it looks like the Turkey president speaking from abroad before 478 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 2: his trip home. 479 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,639 Speaker 3: There is no question there's overwhelming support from the American people. 480 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 3: There's over woman support from the members of the Congress, 481 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 3: both House and Senate, and both parties, notwithstanding the fact 482 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 3: there's some extreme elements of one party. We will stand together. 483 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 2: With Ukraine and as an alliance. A lot of questions 484 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 2: about the way he handles Ukraine. The entry potentially of 485 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 2: that nation, I guess would be number thirty three. But 486 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,399 Speaker 2: look this, when it comes down to it, we've been 487 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 2: talking about campaigning. 488 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 4: All hour here. 489 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 2: This is the one thing that nobody else can do is, 490 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 2: you know, fly around the world. You see that shot 491 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 2: last night of Air Force one landing in Helsinki with 492 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 2: the sunset behind him. 493 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 4: Any candidate would pay for that. And so we reassembled 494 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:22,639 Speaker 4: our panel for their take on it. 495 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,880 Speaker 2: Rick Davis Bloomberg Politics contributed to Republican strategist Roger Fisk 496 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,400 Speaker 2: is with us today too, former aide to President Obama, 497 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 2: the president of New Day Strategy, Democratic analyst Roger, I'll 498 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 2: start with you on this because you've got the democratic view. 499 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,280 Speaker 2: Are you proud of the president here? There were questions 500 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 2: about his ability to get through a trip like this, 501 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 2: and I know he skipped a dinner was criticized for it, 502 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 2: But what kind of a grade would you give him? 503 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 8: I think this is an a plus across the board, 504 00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,119 Speaker 8: and especially when you look at it through the lens 505 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 8: of the location of the press conference that happened earlier 506 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:02,680 Speaker 8: was the exact same place where the former president had 507 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 8: a press conference and famously didn't believe the US intelligence 508 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 8: services and took the side of putin so as a 509 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 8: reflective surface, you really couldn't ask for more, and in 510 00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,879 Speaker 8: terms of substance and in terms of a somewhat lightly 511 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,359 Speaker 8: reference to the democratic experiment. But now the NATO line 512 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:24,359 Speaker 8: of defense runs the entirety of Europe and that's a 513 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,040 Speaker 8: very very real thing and that should be celebrated by 514 00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:32,400 Speaker 8: everyone in this country. And it sends a strong message 515 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 8: to the authoritarians in the world. And it's also interesting 516 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 8: to see Erdawan somewhat come into the fold and realize 517 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 8: that he needs to not just be a NATO member 518 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 8: in word, but also a NATO member. 519 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 2: Indeed, we started this hour Rick Davis by asking where's 520 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:51,119 Speaker 2: the Rigan esque bounce? 521 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 4: Does this do. 522 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 2: Anything for the president in the campaign? 523 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 7: You know, it depends on what he does with it. 524 00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,160 Speaker 7: I think that that the jury is still out as 525 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 7: to whether or not he's going to get much credit 526 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 7: for this, although I think today he cleaned up a lot. 527 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,680 Speaker 7: I do disagree with Roger this a plus. I give 528 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,919 Speaker 7: him like a B plus. They stepped all over their message, 529 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 7: you know, at NATO by kind of you know, miss 530 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 7: messaging the Ukrainian ascension into NATO, and and he got 531 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 7: back onto it today by declaring, you know that Putin 532 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,719 Speaker 7: had already lost the war, and I think he's right 533 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,080 Speaker 7: about that. You think about as Roger was saying, five 534 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,399 Speaker 7: years ago, you know, Putin was on the stage with 535 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 7: the president. President was kaw talent to Putin. Putin was 536 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 7: at his height, really in his in his global acceptance. 537 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 7: And and then today, you know, the President says, you 538 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 7: know this, this guy's lost a war in Ukraine. He's 539 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 7: a he's an international war criminal. I mean, you couldn't 540 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,600 Speaker 7: get a bigger fall from Grace in five years. He's 541 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 7: got to actually take that to a campaign phase, right 542 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 7: he I mean, where's the ad that's going to go 543 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 7: up tomorrow? Contrasting you know Biden, you know with Trump 544 00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 7: five years ago. I mean, this is powerful stuff if 545 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 7: they can it right, But since they're not running a campaign, 546 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 7: you wonder how they're gonna take credit for it. 547 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 4: Well, how about that, Roger? 548 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 2: There does seem to be this thought that you know, 549 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 2: Joe Biden keeps his elbows up on the barrel and 550 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 2: kind of watches Republicans pick away at each other. But 551 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 2: should this reelection campaign be engaging in the way that 552 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 2: Rick describes. 553 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 8: I think they should definitely have an uptick. I understand 554 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 8: the fundamental strategy of as long as the former president 555 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 8: has a large and relatively open stage, that he'll continue 556 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 8: to say and do things that alienate educated suburban women, essentially, 557 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 8: and that that in itself could be a decisive part 558 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 8: of how things go next November. But by virtue of 559 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,640 Speaker 8: coming out of the pandemic, I think that there's still 560 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:51,720 Speaker 8: some organizational exercise that needs to be done, and I 561 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 8: think the Biden folks should be essentially running right now 562 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,480 Speaker 8: as if it's next year, because they didn't have all 563 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 8: those days on the road, etc. Coming into the into 564 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 8: twenty twenty, by virtue of the shutdowns, still somewhat in place. 565 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 8: So in terms of getting out there and having a 566 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 8: very agile, targeted, well oiled surrogate machine for example, getting 567 00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 8: out there and having a very aggressive and targeted use 568 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 8: of the First Lady for example, all of those things 569 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 8: need to start now so that by the time you 570 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 8: really need them, which is next spring, that they're essentially 571 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 8: already up and running at ninety miles an hour and 572 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 8: not just getting their toes on the starting line. 573 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 2: President Biden referred to Republicans and some of the discord 574 00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:39,120 Speaker 2: in Washington here, Rick, and I just refer to that 575 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,360 Speaker 2: because some lawmakers on the Rules Committee were up until 576 00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,600 Speaker 2: two o'clock in the morning or something debating amendments on 577 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,920 Speaker 2: the NDAA, which this National Defense Authorization Act, which is 578 00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 2: traditionally sailed through on a bipartisan level. 579 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:53,800 Speaker 4: It's looking like. 580 00:30:55,400 --> 00:31:00,120 Speaker 2: Speaker McCarthy is siding again with some conservative members of 581 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,479 Speaker 2: his own party who tend not to be big fans 582 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,040 Speaker 2: of him. Is there a chance that this actually does 583 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,479 Speaker 2: get bound up in a in a partisan fight and 584 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,040 Speaker 2: we're not funding the Pentagon? 585 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 7: You know, I worry less about the NDAA, uh, the 586 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 7: National Defense Authorization Act, because it has a history of 587 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 7: passing when nothing else will uh. And and in a 588 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 7: bipartisan fashion, meaning whatever Republican votes, you know, decide to protest, uh, 589 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,320 Speaker 7: you can pick up Democrat votes to to to offset that, 590 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 7: well offset that. So so I'm less worried about that. 591 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 7: I am worried about Republicans just being rebranded on our 592 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 7: global you know, sort of interventionist security philosophy that we've 593 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,760 Speaker 7: had since Ronald Reagan and and and Marjorie Taylors and 594 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 7: gree Green is doing a great job of that, right 595 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 7: She is capturing everybody's attention now that she's been booted 596 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:52,440 Speaker 7: out of the Freedom Caucus. 597 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 4: Uh. 598 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 7: And and I've read two arcles back to back about 599 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 7: her crazy ideas and getting out of NATO. And then 600 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 7: another article is, oh, and she's on the short list 601 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 7: for you know, Donald Trump's vice president. I'm like, what, 602 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 7: Oh my god. The party really has changed a lot. So, yeah, 603 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 7: these messaging things aren't going to be helpful to anybody 604 00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:13,320 Speaker 7: who gets the nomination. 605 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 4: Including Donald Trump. Uh, we only have thirty seconds, Rogers. 606 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 4: Is this going to pass ultimately? 607 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,719 Speaker 8: Yes, It's bizarre that it's become this Christmas tree with 608 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,720 Speaker 8: all these cultural issue ornaments. And to touch briefly on 609 00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 8: the Marjorie Taylor Green, I'm firmly in the Carry Lake 610 00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 8: camp for vice president in twenty twenty four for the 611 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 8: former president. So that's that's where that's where I'm at. 612 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,920 Speaker 2: That means he's threatened by Marjorie Taylor Green. I need 613 00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 2: to hear more about this. Some final thoughts from Rick 614 00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:44,760 Speaker 2: Davis and Roger Fisk ahead. They've wrapped the cocaine investigation 615 00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 2: at the White House, big briefing today. You won't believe 616 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,920 Speaker 2: the outcome, Yeah, you will, This is Bloomberg. 617 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 618 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:58,800 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, Tune 619 00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 1: in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 620 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,880 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 621 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 622 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 2: Big News Today from a Secret Service Big story in Washington, 623 00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:18,440 Speaker 2: they wrapped the investigation into the cocaine. Now, a bag 624 00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,680 Speaker 2: of cocaine ended up in the White House while the 625 00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,520 Speaker 2: President was out of town. The even brief lawmakers behind 626 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 2: closed doors. Lawmakers including Congresswoman Lauren Bobert, who of course 627 00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,360 Speaker 2: filmed a Twitter video before walking in gyone. 628 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 9: I am on my way into this restricted area to 629 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 9: go into a skip to learn about the unclassified information 630 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,640 Speaker 9: regarding the cocaine that was found at the White House. 631 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:49,160 Speaker 9: I'm meeting with Secret Service agents and I am determined 632 00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 9: to find out exactly what happened, where the substance came from. 633 00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 9: Who is allowed in the White House without going through security. 634 00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 2: Great questions, So who did it? The agency says there's 635 00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:07,000 Speaker 2: not enough evidence to conclude how this might have happened 636 00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:11,960 Speaker 2: or who might have been responsible? Rick Davis and Roger 637 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,839 Speaker 2: Fisk with some final thoughts here. You must be surprised, Rick, 638 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,080 Speaker 2: what is this the Supreme Court? 639 00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know I heard that when you're on cocaine 640 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,640 Speaker 7: you feel invisible. I didn't know when you're on cocaine 641 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,920 Speaker 7: you are invisible. This is really quite a enough, you know, 642 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 7: an announcement by the Secret Service. 643 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:31,279 Speaker 2: That is pretty good. Now, look, you guys both worked 644 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,239 Speaker 2: in the White House. Roger, you've been through that door 645 00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,879 Speaker 2: they were. This is off the driveway facing the old 646 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,640 Speaker 2: Executive office building. You go going into the west wing here, 647 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,239 Speaker 2: and it wasn't that far from the situation room. Are 648 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,080 Speaker 2: you telling me they don't have this on camera? 649 00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,640 Speaker 8: Well, you know, it's not surprising to me that they 650 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 8: weren't able to identify what went on. But according to 651 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,879 Speaker 8: Charlie Pellett's update just a moment ago about the market, 652 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,960 Speaker 8: Koch stock is up. So someone's benefiting from the earned 653 00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:58,560 Speaker 8: media here. 654 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,080 Speaker 4: Wow, you guys way too ready for that. 655 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 2: Big Thanks to our great panel, Brick Davis, Roger Fisk, 656 00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,399 Speaker 2: smart analysis and they're funny guys too. 657 00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:09,240 Speaker 4: I love these guys. 658 00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 2: Great conversation, our one of sound on the fastest show 659 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:19,080 Speaker 2: in politics, live from Washington. We'll add Kaylee Lines to 660 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 2: the conversation coming up hour two, and want to bring 661 00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,200 Speaker 2: you into the room for a very difficult conversation. The 662 00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 2: share of the FTC had today another grilling before the 663 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:33,319 Speaker 2: Judiciary Committee. We'll have that next only here. I'm Joe 664 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,720 Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington. Our two of Sound on. 665 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:38,080 Speaker 4: It starts right now. 666 00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:40,240 Speaker 1: Go get. 667 00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,960 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure 668 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,840 Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and 669 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,479 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find 670 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,600 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm 671 00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 2: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.