1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 2: Please start strong this morning with the perfect guest. Patrick 7 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 2: Armstrong is fearless at Pleurimi wealth in. 8 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 3: The United Kingdom. 9 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 2: He's very visible within the British press, but far more 10 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 2: has a wonderful crocesset view Patrick within the equity markets. 11 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 3: Is this a correction or something more? 12 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 4: Well, we're already in a correction if you look outside 13 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 4: of the United States. Since October, the MSCI World Xus 14 00:00:57,440 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 4: is down ten percent. Now the US has probably done 15 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 4: the book six percent peak to troph if you include 16 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,759 Speaker 4: today's futures. So a correction won't surprise me because we're 17 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 4: already in it in many places in the world. The 18 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 4: US is very close. We've been really negative on ten 19 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 4: year yields for a number of months now. We think 20 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 4: Trump getting inaugurated next week, he's unequivocally pro both short 21 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 4: term and definitely inflationary. All of these policies we think 22 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 4: either provoke growth which is inflationary, and provoke inflation through 23 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 4: tariffs and protectionism. So you do have the S and 24 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 4: P NOTDIC record multiples, but it is near record multiples 25 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 4: on many measures, and it's hard to have those multiple 26 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 4: sustained as yields do move higher. 27 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 2: If you suggest higher yields, lower bond prices, note prices, 28 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 2: bill prices, does that mean some equities do well and 29 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 2: others don't or do you just run and sell? 30 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 4: So yeah, definitely there's intersensitive equities are going to struggle 31 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 4: in this. We do think the tenure yield keeps moving 32 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 4: higher throughout this year. Companies that have a long duration 33 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,519 Speaker 4: where the market's basically discounting future cash flows that are 34 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 4: very far into the future. So those are the megacap 35 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 4: both companies that don't have massive earnings today but the 36 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,679 Speaker 4: market's hoping for massive earnings. Those get discounted at a 37 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 4: higher rate. And the traditional interest rate sectors that are 38 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,079 Speaker 4: interest rate sensitive sectors such as property companies. I think 39 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 4: you're going to continue to struggle utilities, dividend pairs. 40 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 5: Those kind of companies. As an alternative bonds, I think face. 41 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 6: Headwards, Patrick, what do you when you see the tenure 42 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 6: year old moving as it is. What is that telling you? 43 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 6: What would you suggest to it to a novice who 44 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 6: is watching this with some stupefication. 45 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 4: Well, it's it's not moved enough yet. We do think 46 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 4: we get above five percent by your end. And the 47 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 4: market's too complacent on inflation. If you look at the 48 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 4: tenure inflation swamps, you're at two point three percent today 49 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 4: and that's just pricing the FED for a perfect decade. 50 00:02:55,560 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 4: And there's so many forces protectionism, nationalism, running deficits, stoking demand. 51 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 4: All of those forces are inflationary. So there's going to 52 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 4: be periods where inflation looks in line with the FED targets, 53 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 4: but there's going to be intermittent spikes. So you've got 54 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 4: a yield curve historically which is steep one and a 55 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 4: half whatever the Fed funds rate one and a half 56 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 4: percent above that typically where the tenure yield is. 57 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 5: So if you've got. 58 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 4: The Fed cutting once maybe twice this year, and a 59 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 4: normal yield curve, you do get a ten year rate 60 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 4: about five percent. 61 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 5: So it's the market was too complacent on inflation. 62 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 4: It's starting to get less complacent, but it's still in 63 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 4: a phase where it's too complacent in my opinion. 64 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 6: To someone who sees that and feels worried, is your counsel, 65 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 6: this is a return to something close to normal. Don't 66 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 6: be as don't be as spooked as you as you 67 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 6: might feel like you should be, or is it telling 68 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 6: you something that is potentially worrisome. 69 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 4: So there's potential drivers of the tenure yield and if 70 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 4: it's stagflation meaning weakening growth but higher prices, that. 71 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 5: Would be a terrible environment for equities. 72 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 4: If there's normal yield curves and buying that we are 73 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 4: getting back to an environment where there's growth. We think 74 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 4: the US economy is going to grow at almost two 75 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 4: and a half percent this year, which is above its 76 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 4: long term potential. 77 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 5: Equities can move higher in that environment because you. 78 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 4: Are getting earnings growth, you're getting economic growth, and the 79 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,279 Speaker 4: normalization of the yield curve is something you shouldn't be 80 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 4: worried about. So in our base case, it's based on 81 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 4: a now landing scenario in the United States is a 82 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 4: big part of it, combined with some inflationary pressures, and 83 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 4: we do. 84 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 5: Think equities move higher for the year. 85 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 4: But because the yields have moved so quickly and so 86 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 4: sharply you're getting out of the weakness right now. 87 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 3: Patrick a couple more questions. How do currencies play into this? 88 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 2: I mean, I got a dollar fact running away, dollar stronger. 89 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 2: Is it like equities? You know, like the short throw 90 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 2: the towel in? Does the week dollar crew throw the 91 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 2: towel in and we get a convexity and an acceleration 92 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 2: in strong dollar. 93 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 4: It's hard to see the dollar weakening right now because 94 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 4: you're getting the safe haven metaphit of it. You've got 95 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 4: a FED that's going to cut less than the ECB. 96 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 4: We think the ECB cuts four or five times this year, 97 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 4: and we think the Fed's only cutting once. Higher economic 98 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 4: growth based on real deregulation out of the Trump administration, 99 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 4: fiscal stimulus continues. So all of those factors do lead 100 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 4: to dollar strength in twenty twenty five. In our opinion, 101 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 4: I think a big chunk of the move has happened already. 102 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:23,600 Speaker 4: But I do think you see the dollar continue to 103 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,280 Speaker 4: ground higher, and the rest of the world is going 104 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 4: to use their currencies to combat potential tariffs that will 105 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 4: be coming in. So I think wee currencies for the 106 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 4: rest of the world to combat potential US tariffs is 107 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 4: going to be part of the currency wards that have 108 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 4: worked this year. 109 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 3: Patrick, thank you thrilled day. 110 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,279 Speaker 2: If you start us out on this Monday morning, mister Armstrong, 111 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 2: Cio Plurimi Wealth Management in London. 112 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 113 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 114 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: Apple Corplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 115 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 116 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 2: Repped around the market opening here, we're gonna get to 117 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 2: that in four minutes. We have Mark Zandy with us 118 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 2: out on Twitter. There's a lot of mediocrity led by me. 119 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 2: There's people worth following like de Gurra, follow David Gurra, 120 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 2: Jason Furman. 121 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 3: I think up at Harvard. 122 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,799 Speaker 2: Whether they agree or disagree with him, Professor Furman's really 123 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 2: engaging the brain. And someone else, whether you agree or 124 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 2: disagree with them, is Mark Zandy. We're thrilled to join 125 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 2: us right now from Moodies Marketing. You're on fire out 126 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,119 Speaker 2: on Twitter, and you're of course saying all I should 127 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 2: be on the bond market. Do you link bond market 128 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 2: to stock market future? 129 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:44,359 Speaker 7: I do you know? 130 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 8: I think as long term interest rates push up. That 131 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 8: puts pressure on multiples, particularly for previously high flying or 132 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 8: currently high flying stocks, technology stocks that are valued based 133 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 8: on earnings way out into the future. So as long 134 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 8: term rates rise, that puts pressure on multiples and puts pressure. 135 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 7: On the equity market. So yeah, I think they're very 136 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 7: closely linked. 137 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 2: Tom, Have we lost a disinflationary vector? Have we just 138 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 2: given up on some form of error, whether it's a 139 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 2: John Williams two percent or something higher. Have we given 140 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 2: up on that vector? 141 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 8: Well, it's going to get tricky here. You know, it 142 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 8: was tricky even before tarriffs and deportation and deficit finance 143 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 8: tax cuts. But you know, with the prospects of that 144 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 8: debt ahead, those are inflationary. I mean how inflationary obviously 145 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 8: depends on the policies that are ultimately implemented, and at 146 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 8: least there's of course a lot of uncertainty around that. 147 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 8: But you know, I think directionally, yeah, it's going to 148 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 8: be a lot more difficult to get to the FEDS 149 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 8: two percent target and stay there. So I don't know 150 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 8: we should give up on it forever, but at least 151 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 8: in the foreseeable future, I think it's going to be 152 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 8: much more difficult to I think, get back in the 153 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 8: bottle completely. 154 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 6: Mark, How are you and your colleagues finding your way 155 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 6: through that uncertainty? So as you say, we don't know 156 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 6: a whole lot of detail here about these three kind 157 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 6: of marquee proposals from the president elect when it comes 158 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 6: to the tariffs and deportations and tax policy, what he 159 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 6: and his colleagues intend to do at this point, How 160 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 6: are you beginning to forecast that? How are you thinking 161 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 6: about the potential the effect it's going to have on 162 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 6: inflation going forward? 163 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, that's through scenarios. 164 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 8: You know, we have like everyone else, that kind of 165 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,959 Speaker 8: a bit what we call a baseline scenario, kind of 166 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 8: in the middle of the distribution of possible outcomes, and 167 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 8: that's our best guess as to what policy is going 168 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 8: to be. You know, economic policy is going to be 169 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 8: here around the tariffs and deportation and fiscal policy, the 170 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,960 Speaker 8: tax cuts, how much of that's going to be deficit 171 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 8: financed and all the other things that are going on 172 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 8: here with regard to fed independence and regulation, less regulation, 173 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 8: what does that mean for growth? All those But because 174 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 8: of the high degree of uncertainty, we run different scenarios 175 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 8: scenarios where the tariffs aren't quite as significant. They're not 176 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 8: on as many countries, across as many products, they don't 177 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 8: remain in place for very long. But this goes to 178 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:23,479 Speaker 8: a very important point, and that is the uncertainty itself 179 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 8: is a weight on economic growth. And that's one of 180 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 8: the I think underappreciated downsides of things like tariffs, because 181 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 8: they are so complex and opaque. There's gonna be a 182 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 8: lot of changes here that it's moving around all over 183 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 8: the place. Business people are going to have a hard 184 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 8: time with that. They're not going to be able to 185 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 8: make predecisions around that, they're not going to invest, and 186 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 8: that's a significant weight on economic growth. 187 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 7: Board. 188 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 2: I take great, great issue with the fear about applaza 189 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 2: accord doctor Zandy Greg Yep with a spectacular essay in 190 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal like put it out on Twitter 191 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 2: and linked in, really going after doctor Mirron, who will 192 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:10,599 Speaker 2: be the economic advisor for mister Trump. Mister Mirran suggesting 193 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 2: that dollar adjustment like a plaza accord where we would 194 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 2: force a weaker dollar is one outlet for America. How 195 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 2: do you force a weaker dollar? Mark, Sandy, I don't know, Tom, 196 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 2: It's a setup, because I know Zandy had smoke coming 197 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 2: out of his ears. A wise one from Pennsylvania, please 198 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 2: discuss the gentleman from Cambridge. 199 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 7: Yeah, I don't get that one, especially if you be independence. 200 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 8: I mean, I suppose you could capture the Fed and 201 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 8: get them to do whatever you want, and. 202 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 7: You know, maybe that pushes down the value of the dollar. 203 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 7: I don't know. I mean, you know, if you. 204 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 8: Have broad based tariffs buckle in, it means a higher 205 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 8: value the dollar. I mean, I can't imagine the Chinese 206 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 8: not using their currency as a way to exact right, 207 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 8: I mean, so in the US, you know, given where 208 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 8: the US economy is, I just don't say it. 209 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 7: So, I don't know. I'm perplexed by that. 210 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 8: Well, you know, there's a lot of policy proposals out 211 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 8: there there, you know we're hearing about that I'm perplexed about. 212 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 7: But that's that's at the top of the list. Don't 213 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:21,560 Speaker 7: get it. 214 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 3: Mark, We got to leave you there. We got to 215 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:23,679 Speaker 3: get you back soon. 216 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 4: Here. 217 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 2: On tariff analysis, Sandy on fire out on Twitter a 218 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 2: huge value add whether you agree with doctor Sandy or not. 219 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 2: Of course, with Moody's analytics. 220 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 221 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 222 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 223 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 224 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 1: say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty and. 225 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:54,680 Speaker 2: We migrate over with really a continuation of the discussion 226 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:58,319 Speaker 2: where Gina Mayer joins US Global Head of Markets KPMG. 227 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 2: Is Well, Regina, how does KPMG on a first stab 228 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 2: assess the California fires. 229 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 9: Well, I think everyone's still just trying to come to 230 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 9: grips with what it will all mean. And I think 231 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 9: right now a lot of folks are simply focused on 232 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 9: the human tragedy that we're watching unfold in front of 233 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 9: our eyes. You know, obviously, we have folks that look 234 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 9: at what's the potential damages, what what might this mean 235 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 9: for the insurance agency agencies or the insurance market itself, 236 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 9: And of course I pay attention to what does this 237 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 9: mean about the future of utilities and electrical provisions and 238 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 9: infrastructure from my seat at the table. 239 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 2: So what do you see about utilities besides you know, 240 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 2: the litigation and the snarkiness and all that that's the 241 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 2: modern age. Maybe it happened in the San Francisco earthquake, 242 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 2: I don't know. But what do the new utilities look 243 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 2: like after this shock? 244 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 9: Well, I think I think the utility systems will continue 245 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 9: to look in large part the same. I think what 246 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 9: I've been paying attention to is obviously the investor reaction. 247 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 9: If you look at some of the stock performance of 248 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 9: the local utility, just to give you one example, they've 249 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 9: already lost four point three billion dollars in market cap, 250 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 9: and that's probably greater than what the potential liability would 251 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 9: be even if they were to be found liable, which 252 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 9: no one understands where the source of these fires have 253 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 9: come from yet, So I'm not implying at all that 254 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 9: there's any culpability, but the investor responses is quite out 255 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 9: of whack. So I do think that we need to 256 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 9: look at what other options we have, you know, can 257 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 9: we transition more to small scale nuclear reactors. I do 258 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 9: like the move toward maintaining our base load nuclear infrastructure, 259 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 9: making sure that we have more options to provide electricity. 260 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 9: And then, of course the other thing was water pressure, 261 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 9: because water pressure is a lot of times driven by 262 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 9: electricity and even the local Water and Electrical group is 263 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 9: LA was saying that they did not proactively shut off 264 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,680 Speaker 9: electricity for the reasons of keeping water pressure on. So 265 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 9: I don't think we have any sense yet of exactly 266 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,599 Speaker 9: what is transpiring, and I do think there will be 267 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 9: some lessons learned, like there have been for multiple fires 268 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:16,560 Speaker 9: that have happened in California, and it will continue to 269 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 9: affect the landscape of utilities across the country. 270 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 6: Well, let's go down that path that you just kind 271 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 6: of let us down, and that is the future of 272 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 6: nuclear energy in this country, and it's something that's had 273 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 6: a lot of currency lately. I think in the context 274 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 6: of the surge and growth we've seen in AI and 275 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 6: the demand that that's placed on the power gridges to 276 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 6: power the data centers they're being built to sustain it. 277 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 6: Do you sense that there is a change in appetite 278 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 6: or appreciation for the role that nuclear power could play 279 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 6: here in the US. 280 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 9: It's definitely experiencing a renaissance, which I find quite encouraging 281 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 9: because personally, a decade or so ago, I was quite 282 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 9: distressed that we were prematurely shutting down nuclear assets, and 283 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 9: now I see us getting tax credits and incentives for 284 00:14:57,520 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 9: keeping these assets more in play. You've seen some of 285 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 9: the recent announcements with some of the large tech players 286 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 9: partnering with utility providers to restart nuclear facilities. This is 287 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 9: strong baseload infrastructure that's already connected to the transmission grid, 288 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 9: and you wouldn't have to provide necessarily new infrastructure. Building 289 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 9: new ones though prohibitively expensive, as we've seen from some 290 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 9: of the new reactors that are coming that are coming online. 291 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 9: But I do think that there's more of an appetite, 292 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 9: and it's driven by the tech companies that know that 293 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 9: they need this. A recent survey that KPMG did, we 294 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 9: found that fifty five percent of our tech buyers were 295 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 9: willing to pay fifty percent or more for electricity to 296 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 9: ensure that it's reliable and sustainable. 297 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 6: I've been thinking a lot about this time in the 298 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 6: context of Jimmy Carter, who marinating on what he did 299 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 6: in the Navy when he was working in the nuclear subprogram, 300 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 6: and it was something that kind of frustrated him throughout 301 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 6: his life, was this kind of popular opinion turning against 302 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 6: the nuclear industry when he was someone who actually thought 303 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 6: that it was quite safe and executed in such in 304 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 6: such a safe way. 305 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 5: Regina. 306 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 6: We were talking earlier just about oil and where it's headed. 307 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 6: We were talking with Havier Blush just about sort of 308 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 6: the rhetoric that we're hearing from the President elect about 309 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 6: this drive to produce more oil here in the US 310 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 6: and how that will affect the global oil market. From 311 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 6: your advantage and with your experience in the world of energy, 312 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 6: how do you see that playing out here over the 313 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 6: next year eighteen months, that the pressure that presumably this 314 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 6: new president will will put in place to increase production 315 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 6: here in the US. As we're seeing prices where. 316 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 9: They are, well, I think that the industry is producing 317 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 9: as great an amount as they possibly can, and you 318 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,640 Speaker 9: see that continuing to inch up. We've continued to have 319 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 9: record amounts of US production vers it's thirteen point two, 320 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 9: then a thirteen point three, then a thirteen point four 321 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 9: million barrels per day. So I do think the industry 322 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 9: is producing more because the price environment is positive. What 323 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 9: could happen with the new administration that would be positive 324 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 9: from the industry perspective is more leasing opportunities in the 325 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 9: Gulf of Mexico, and what the industry is asked for 326 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 9: is improvements in the permitting process that end the end 327 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:13,120 Speaker 9: permitting process when you even look at popeline writing way, 328 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 9: it's not just drilling is a bone of contention, and 329 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 9: I think there's a lot of optimism that the current 330 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,439 Speaker 9: the new administration, we'll be able to help with that 331 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 9: when you think about other things like drilling in the Arctic. 332 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 9: If you'll notice the Department of Interior got zero bids 333 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 9: for the latest round of potential and war drilling opportunities, 334 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 9: and all of the leases that were taken in twenty 335 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 9: twenty one have all fallen into forfeiture. So I don't 336 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 9: think it's going to be expansive into new areas. But 337 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 9: if you ease the opportunity to drill in the places 338 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 9: where the industry is very comfortable, and you create more 339 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,479 Speaker 9: opportunity than the golf which is quite prolific, I think 340 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 9: those could have some longer term impacts. It's not a 341 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 9: twelve to eighteen month story though. 342 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 2: Brilliant, Regina Mayor, I thank you so much. Affiliated with 343 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 2: Rice University, Houston, Global Head of Clients at Markets KPMG 344 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 2: is Well. 345 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:10,439 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 346 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto. 347 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 5: With the Bloomberg Business app. 348 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 349 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal. 350 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 2: The Daily look at the front pages, the Lisa Matteo 351 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: moment Lisa. 352 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 3: A busy week it. 353 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 10: Is, and a busy news flow too. We're still talking 354 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,400 Speaker 10: about the Los Angeles fires. This just coming in from 355 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 10: the Daily Mail that the mega mansion that was featured 356 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,400 Speaker 10: in the hit show Succession that is gone. It's been 357 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 10: reduced to rubble. It's the most expensive home in the 358 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 10: Pacific Palisades. If you remember, if you're a fan of 359 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 10: the show, it appeared in season four Succession twenty twenty three. 360 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 10: It was the home of the Roy siblings. You saw 361 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 10: the patios views, like those extensive views of the area 362 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 10: that was a backdrop for a lot of areas. It 363 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 10: was Coursey fire pit, fire pit exactly exactly, so everything 364 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 10: out of there. But they're saying that it has collapsed. 365 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 10: It was a four story building. It was owned by 366 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 10: Luminar Technology chief Austin Russell. He actually bought it in 367 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 10: twenty twenty one for eighty three million dollars. It was 368 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 10: valued around one hundred and twenty five million before the fires, 369 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 10: and he actually wasn't even living there. He was it 370 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,400 Speaker 10: was being rented out when the fires, before the fire 371 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 10: started for about four hundred and fifty thousand dollars a month. 372 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 10: But that now is gone. It's been reduced to rubble till. 373 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,159 Speaker 6: We were talking about this before the show, just the 374 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 6: way in which people, yes, in Los Angeles, but outside 375 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 6: of Los Angeles, trying to piece together if these properties 376 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,880 Speaker 6: still exist, to a lot of kind of forensic work, 377 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 6: just trying to figure that out. 378 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're all touched by it. 379 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 2: And you know, I thought this the security overlayer hed 380 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 2: Yesterday's great, but the real story is the fires aren't over. 381 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 2: That's you know, on this Monday. The story is Rob 382 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 2: Carolyn's on total watch through at least Wednesday, if not 383 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 2: of a Thursday of next year. 384 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 10: And also a Lucas shadow. He has a great insight 385 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 10: in his screen time Newslayer about the effect of Hollywood 386 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 10: Yes on the fire sea that yes, all right, we'll 387 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 10: take you from California. We're moving over to Colorado. It's 388 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,679 Speaker 10: a different kind of look. If you've been to Aspen lately, 389 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 10: used to have like the North faced puffers and jeans. 390 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 10: Well a spin is going a little more country chic 391 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 10: cowboy hats, but like with diamonds in them. So I 392 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 10: think we need a road track. 393 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 3: Street. 394 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 10: I really think we do. We have to go to 395 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 10: Gucci Prada because they're all like starting to go in 396 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 10: the area. Now, this is the Wall Street journalist saying, 397 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 10: like Max Maarra opened the store where you can get 398 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:40,640 Speaker 10: a four thousand dollars you know, fuzzy teddy coat. Max Maara, sorry. 399 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:42,440 Speaker 7: To check it out. 400 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 10: You have no idea, but it's changing. You know, the 401 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 10: snowbodies are wearing like Prada puffers and. 402 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:49,360 Speaker 3: What if they fall down? 403 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 2: Okay, they got a if you fall down, is it 404 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,439 Speaker 2: you fall down with any more grace? 405 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:55,879 Speaker 10: Guess it's not. 406 00:20:55,920 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 6: But you look good. Do you spend some time Centennial State? Tom, 407 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 6: you go to Aspen? When you were there, I mean 408 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 6: when you were. 409 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:04,640 Speaker 3: I went through it. Yeah. 410 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 2: The one I really did was steamboat to the West, 411 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 2: but that was ancient history. And you know they're having 412 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 2: a rough time of it between ski patrol on strike 413 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:14,120 Speaker 2: at parts. 414 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 5: That's right, that's right. 415 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,400 Speaker 6: Just the sheer to me, there's the demand for champagne, 416 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:19,159 Speaker 6: I guess and Aspen. 417 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's you know. 418 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 2: It's it's a lot of. 419 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 10: A lot of celebrities going there were I carrying Jenn Filoba's, 420 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 10: Jeff Bezos, okay, Tommy, baby boomers and users of weight 421 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,479 Speaker 10: loss drugs giving this boost to injectable esthetic treatments. This 422 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 10: was in the Financial Times. It's because quick explanation, people 423 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 10: losing weight. Right, your face begins to sag and they 424 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 10: call it o zembic face. 425 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 9: Huh. 426 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 10: So now they are needing these injectibles to help give 427 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 10: a little plump, give it. 428 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,159 Speaker 6: That neuromodulators, Tom, with that little plump. 429 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 9: That you need. 430 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 10: And they say baby boomers are starting over sixty plus 431 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,440 Speaker 10: and it's not just women, it's men too, to let 432 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 10: you know, but they're seeing this significant uptick in the 433 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 10: use of it. So these are injectables. They make you 434 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 10: reduce wrinkles, but also give your skin that little plumpness 435 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 10: to kind of help it out after. 436 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 6: You lose weight. 437 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,880 Speaker 10: Now you're doing you gotta go check it out. 438 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 2: Tom, Lisa Mateo, thank you so much. 439 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 3: After Proudy and guccin askemen you go. 440 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 441 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:34,400 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 442 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, 443 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 444 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 445 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg Terminal