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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Juus prout read enough.

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Speaker 3: They're all for running a game, so smoothe so sweet

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Speaker 3: CID sixteen, just glorious extacution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop with mind of buddy, and

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Speaker 3: that's why you see.

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Speaker 1: You as beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 1: Most dangerous a mount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody pictionable, sh shut up.

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Speaker 1: I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left to one of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 3: drilled bibused.

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Speaker 1: How old earth that happened?

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goald, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. I'm your host today, BJ

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Speaker 4: coming in in just a second. I will be joined

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Speaker 4: by my friend and co host Anthony Dubundo. But as

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Speaker 4: a reminder, Wonder Goal is proudly presented by Bet three

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Speaker 4: sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with

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Speaker 4: promo code action to get BET three sixty five's exclusive

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Speaker 4: sign up offer bet one dollar on any game, get

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Speaker 4: two hundred and bonus. Bests must be twenty one years

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Speaker 4: or older. Offers available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio in

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Speaker 4: Virginia in the United States. Gambling problem call or text

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Speaker 4: one eight hundred gambler.

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Speaker 2: All right, we're here.

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Speaker 4: This is your Champions League in Europa League, first leg

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Speaker 4: of the semi finals betting preview.

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Speaker 2: We're going to kick.

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Speaker 4: Things off with a rematch of last year's semifinal, Real

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Speaker 4: Madrid hosting Manchester City.

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Speaker 2: Let's run through the futures.

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Speaker 4: Odds really quick before we get started here. Manchester City

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Speaker 4: is a minus one fifty outright favorite to lift the trophy,

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Speaker 4: with Real Madrid's plus three thirty three enter plus six

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Speaker 4: fifty and AC Milan at plus eight fifty. This match,

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Speaker 4: Real Madrid is plus two ten home underdog. Man City

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Speaker 4: is sitting at plus one twenty with the draw sitting

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Speaker 4: at plus two sixty.

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Speaker 2: Man City is a minus three fifty favored.

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Speaker 4: To qualify, while Real Madrid is sitting at plus two

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Speaker 4: to fifty at bet three sixty five. This is a

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Speaker 4: very interesting match, Anthony, and the way I see it,

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Speaker 4: I'll let you get your thoughts in here first, but

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Speaker 4: I think Real Madrid kind of needs to Real Madrid

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Speaker 4: this thing if they want to get through both these legs,

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Speaker 4: because City is looking pretty much unstoppable right now. So

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Speaker 4: that means Real Madrid's got to be incredibly deadly and

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Speaker 4: transitional opportunities and their low block has to be effective

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Speaker 4: when they're playing out of possession. But how do you

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Speaker 4: see this first of two semifinals going?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I've done a lot of thinking about this match.

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Speaker 5: We kind of had a feeling it was coming pretty

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Speaker 5: early once the way the quarterfinals played out the first leg,

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Speaker 5: and I thought a lot about like, you know, where's

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Speaker 5: the market going to open, what's it going to look

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Speaker 5: like relative to last year, and what's changed now? City

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Speaker 5: closed right around plus one fifteen last year in the

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Speaker 5: second leg at the bernabout holding a one goal aggregate lead,

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Speaker 5: and that match City was the better side. They had

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Speaker 5: a lot more of the possession, and then they completely

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Speaker 5: collapsed in the second half. You know, really the last

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Speaker 5: fifteen minutes of the match, they.

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Speaker 1: Kind of fell apart.

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Speaker 5: But I think we need to realize that, like, how

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Speaker 5: does this number make any sense? Because we had to

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Speaker 5: throw out all priors because I think I'm a little

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Speaker 5: you know, we have a bias against Real Madrid for sure,

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Speaker 5: because they've gotten so lucky for so long that I

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Speaker 5: think we've maybe missed that they might be better this year,

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Speaker 5: and they may have been a more solid team around

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Speaker 5: the rest of kind of the squad. And I'm not

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Speaker 5: really sure who's going to have more of the possession

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Speaker 5: in this one, because City had fifty five percent of

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Speaker 5: the ball in the last meeting last year.

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Speaker 1: But City have also.

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Speaker 5: Been a little more willing to play off the possession

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Speaker 5: this year. You saw that against Arsenal for parts of

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Speaker 5: the match a couple weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: You saw that against Bayern Munich.

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Speaker 5: You saw that especially against Arsenal in the first meeting

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Speaker 5: between the two of them. So Real Madrid is by

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Speaker 5: no means like a possession dominant team, but they're certainly

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Speaker 5: willing to have the ball, and so I think part

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Speaker 5: of me thinks.

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Speaker 1: That Real will have more of the ball than.

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Speaker 5: Maybe we think here. And I'll be looking to see

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Speaker 5: if we get a prop. You know, I love betting

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Speaker 5: the possession props. I will be looking to bet a

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Speaker 5: Real Madrid over maybe say forty six and a half

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Speaker 5: percent if we get that number, because I really think

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Speaker 5: that the market's a little lower on Real Madrid than

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Speaker 5: I thought it was going to be coming in here.

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Speaker 1: And I'm obviously I.

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Speaker 5: Think it's more so that they're higher on City because

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Speaker 5: when I pull up La Legal numbers, I very rarely

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Speaker 5: show value on Madrid. They haven't really been competitive in

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Speaker 5: the league, but if you just look by like raw

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Speaker 5: expected goal differential, they have basically better numbers than last year,

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Speaker 5: despite not getting the same level of production from Benzima

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Speaker 5: that they got last year. I mean, Benzim has been worse.

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Speaker 5: He's taken a step back, as we kind of expected,

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Speaker 5: but they've supplemented it with an even better Venecious season

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Speaker 5: and more production from Rodrigo. You know, he scores two

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Speaker 5: in the Cup final on Saturday, and I think Real's

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Speaker 5: like they have defensive issues still. That's the thing that's

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Speaker 5: kind of scary here, Like without Militao, who suspended, can

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Speaker 5: they defend Holland well enough? If Holland and de Brunna

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Speaker 5: do the similar type of tactics they did against against Arsenal.

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Speaker 5: So I've gone really back and forth on this a lot,

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Speaker 5: curious to get your thoughts generally speaking, and then I'll

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Speaker 5: kind of give a point on where I end up

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Speaker 5: in this match.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, where I'm at right now is going into this

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Speaker 4: I was going to pass completely because I have said

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Speaker 4: at plus one thirty nine, and now they've taken money,

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Speaker 4: and now I'm getting to the point where maybe I

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Speaker 4: would look at Real Madrid. But here's the thing that

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Speaker 4: kind of worries me about Real Madrid. So you know

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Speaker 4: last season, especially in that first leg, it was the

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Speaker 4: Venetiez Junior match where you know he cooked Fernandinho on

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Speaker 4: the right. Well, if you remember that, Kyle Walker was

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Speaker 4: injured going to that, and then John Stones got injured

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Speaker 4: in what was around like the twentieth minute, and then

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Speaker 4: Fernandina had to play out a position at right back,

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Speaker 4: and then of course that's the clip that everybody shows.

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Speaker 4: But if we go back, I mean, Manchester City scored

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Speaker 4: two goals inside the first fifteen minutes of that first leg,

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Speaker 4: and there was this moment of panic for Real Madrid,

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Speaker 4: and then they were much much better in those transitional opportunities,

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Speaker 4: and you know, Benzma and Benezia Junior finished at ungodly rates.

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Speaker 4: Now going into this one, the way City likes to

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Speaker 4: set up what we've been seeing them do is set

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Speaker 4: up recently where Pep is playing four center backs along

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Speaker 4: with Rogery, so essentially five center backs who can all

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Speaker 4: can troll the ball, can all be there and build

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Speaker 4: up play. Does he decide to play Kyle Walker to

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Speaker 4: defend against Venezius Junior? Does he double him like he

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Speaker 4: did with Martinelli and Sokka in a couple of meetings

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Speaker 4: with Arsenal where it's just like Venetia Junior is not

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Speaker 4: gonna beat us. It's gonna have to be Benzmo, which

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Speaker 4: is obviously a very dangerous game to play, but it's interesting.

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Speaker 2: I agree with you.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure who holds more possession. If Manchester City

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Speaker 4: does and they strangle whole possession, I think that's a that's.

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Speaker 2: Bad news for Real Madrid.

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Speaker 4: If you look at the two teams that they faced,

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Speaker 4: who can really hold possession against them this season and

151
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Speaker 4: be dominant. It's Liverpool who in that first leg went

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Speaker 4: up to nothing. Real Madrid's low bloc was not good.

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Speaker 4: It could have been three, and then Liver and then

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Speaker 4: Real madridch has scored five goals off of eight shots

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Speaker 4: and one point six to x G, which is essentially.

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Speaker 2: What I believe they have to do here.

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Speaker 4: And then they've played Barcelona five times and on all

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Speaker 4: that's what one match Barcelona has created at least two

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Speaker 4: expected goals and controlled more possessions. So that's worrisome if

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Speaker 4: you're Real Madrid. So do you do you come out

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Speaker 4: try to get more possession? Do you try to press high?

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Speaker 4: Because Real Madrid is not a high pressing team, like

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Speaker 4: they're their team that's pretty passive when they're out of possession.

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Speaker 4: So if they're not gonna press City and they're just

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Speaker 4: gonna let them walt in their final third and then

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Speaker 4: just try to be good in transition, it's yeah, I

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Speaker 4: agree with you. It's a very very interesting tactical battle.

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Speaker 4: So for me right now, I am probably gonna be

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Speaker 4: sitting out this first leg. Might look to get in

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Speaker 4: on it live, if there's a certain scenario that pops up,

171
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Speaker 4: but yeah, it's it's hard for me if Real Madrid

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Speaker 4: doesn't control a lot of possession to see how they

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Speaker 4: get through this leg unless they do what they did

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Speaker 4: against Liverpool and it's very very efficient with their transitional opportunities.

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Speaker 4: So now with that being said, like we've already mentioned,

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Speaker 4: there's the market aspect of this. If City gets down

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Speaker 4: to plus one h five or even money.

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Speaker 2: I have to fire on Real Madrid. That's just too low.

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Speaker 4: There's no way I can ignore that, So that's how

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Speaker 4: I'll be playing it. Other than that, I'm kind of

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Speaker 4: with you. It's just waiting to see on Real Madrid.

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Speaker 4: Other than that, I might have to pass this first leg.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think Cities maybe marginally better than last year,

184
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Speaker 5: just because of Hollin's finishing ability in the center. But

185
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Speaker 5: I don't think they're necessarily all that much better, and

186
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Speaker 5: so I can't get to this number with Real Madrid.

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Speaker 1: I I'm power rated higher than they were last year.

188
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Speaker 5: Whether it's you know, the Camavinga in a left back role,

189
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Speaker 5: which has shirt up their defense a little bit. His athleticism,

190
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Speaker 5: He doesn't really get forward. He tucks into the midfield

191
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Speaker 5: a lot, which I think is the most important angle here,

192
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Speaker 5: because if it is Rudiger and Alaba, which I'm expecting

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Speaker 5: Real Madrid's back line, you should see a lot of

194
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Speaker 5: Camavinka there as like the extra defensive midfielder. What does

195
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Speaker 5: that mean for somebody like a Phil Foden or riad Marez,

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Speaker 5: who I'm expecting to start out wide. Where do they

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Speaker 5: fit into this system?

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Speaker 4: You know?

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Speaker 5: Do they try to run through them? Because they're both

200
00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:02,079
Speaker 5: of them are very good at ball.

201
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Speaker 1: Progression?

202
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Speaker 5: Does Holland run into that channel more. Do we see

203
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Speaker 5: him go more wide, because you know, Camavega is going

204
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Speaker 5: to congest so much of the space up the middle

205
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Speaker 5: and maybe take away that to Brena versus you know,

206
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Speaker 5: Holland playing off of each other. So there's a lot

207
00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,640
Speaker 5: of question marks. City is pretty well rested. They didn't

208
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Speaker 5: play anybody over the weekend. They kind of rotated through

209
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Speaker 5: most of the starters, so I'm not expecting really a

210
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Speaker 5: fatigue thing. But but Gordia also did mention some concern about,

211
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Speaker 5: you know, like player fatigue and said that you know

212
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Speaker 5: a lot of players came to him asking for a

213
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Speaker 5: rest and that they were tired, and like we saw

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Speaker 5: this with Liverpool last year.

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Speaker 1: It's a real thing.

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Speaker 5: I don't care how good you are, how deep you are,

217
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Speaker 5: playing across three fronts through May, when it's been such

218
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Speaker 5: a grueling year with the World Cup, it adds up

219
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Speaker 5: and it wouldn't shock me to see some signs of

220
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Speaker 5: slippage from them going forward.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I can't get to them either.

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Speaker 5: I mean, my projection has City at plus one twenty nine,

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Speaker 5: so for them to be plus one twenty like City

224
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Speaker 5: opened pick minus one thirty like plus one forty five

225
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Speaker 5: money line, and I was like, yeah, that's about what

226
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Speaker 5: I expected it to open, no real value in it

227
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Speaker 5: for me, And then they took a ton of money.

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Speaker 5: It got as low as I saw plus one oh

229
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Speaker 5: five plus one ten very briefly at a couple of books,

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Speaker 5: and like, that's just a lot of disrespect for Real Madrid.

231
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Speaker 5: And I know they've been so lucky, and I know

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Speaker 5: the minute I decided to bet on them in the

233
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Speaker 5: Champions League is when they turned back into a pumpkin

234
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Speaker 5: and all the regression and the luck runs out and

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Speaker 5: they go bad.

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Speaker 1: But are they really a half goal worse at home?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 1: No, they're not. And and like lips, I mean, we

239
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Speaker 1: just had this conversation.

240
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Speaker 5: Leipzig was plus a half in the first leg at

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Speaker 5: home against City, minus won ten. It's like, you know,

242
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Speaker 5: eight percent three point three eight, and now it's like

243
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Speaker 5: minus one thirty five forty for Real Madrid at some places.

244
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Speaker 1: And Real Madrid is clearly better than Leipzig.

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Speaker 5: So this market respect for City has gotten really crazy, uh,

246
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Speaker 5: to the point where I am also not gonna be

247
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Speaker 5: betting this one, but I will looking for some possession

248
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Speaker 5: props again if City. If Real Madrid gets like management

249
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Speaker 5: twenty plus a half, I will be vetting them for sure.

250
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Speaker 5: But yeah, it sucks to say because this is a yeah,

251
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Speaker 5: you know, betting pot, and we have two matches matches

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Speaker 5: to talk this week. I don't really have anything here.

253
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Speaker 1: I mean I'll made me bet it tomorrow. I would

254
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Speaker 1: bet on Real Madrid.

255
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Speaker 4: Yeah, so make sure you just follow us in the

256
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,400
Speaker 4: actual Action Network cap to see who we potentially play

257
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Speaker 4: for this one. But hey, if you want a goal

258
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Speaker 4: scorer one, I'll give you Jack Realish at six to

259
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Speaker 4: one to score. It was interesting the game, the match

260
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Speaker 4: against west Ham in the middle of the week because

261
00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:38,160
Speaker 4: since west Ham was out without Soycheck and without Declan Rice,

262
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Speaker 4: they played a five four one and they essentially funneled

263
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Speaker 4: everything to Jack Realish's side, which you know in some cases,

264
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Speaker 4: like for a team like Real Dred, who is probably

265
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Speaker 4: gonna play a four to four to two out of possession,

266
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Speaker 4: that means the ball is going to be funneled out

267
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Speaker 4: wide quite a bit in this type of situation and

268
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Speaker 4: if they're going.

269
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Speaker 2: To key in on Holland.

270
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Speaker 4: And what you've seen so many times from Grealish is

271
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Speaker 4: because Ake is playing as a a left center back

272
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Speaker 4: type role, He's able to tuck inside and you know,

273
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Speaker 4: allow defenders to commit to him, which creates more space

274
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Speaker 4: on the wing for Grealish to get the ball and

275
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Speaker 4: move it in going forward, so he could have a

276
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Speaker 4: couple a couple good opportunities coming in from the wing

277
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Speaker 4: there to get some shots off.

278
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Speaker 2: So at six to one, I mean, there you go.

279
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Speaker 2: One bet so far. Maybe we can get a Venezia

280
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Speaker 2: Junior shot on target bed I'm not sure.

281
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Speaker 5: What, but yeah, I'm not seeing any shot total markets yet.

282
00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:32,240
Speaker 4: Well, Real Madrid's actual shot total right now is under

283
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Speaker 4: eleven and a half and that's sitting at minus one

284
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Speaker 4: oh five and Citi's over over under his thirteen and

285
00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:38,439
Speaker 4: a half.

286
00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,400
Speaker 2: With the over sitting at minus one twenty five. So

287
00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:41,920
Speaker 2: that's interesting.

288
00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:44,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would I would look toward the under there

289
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,880
Speaker 5: on Real Madrid total shots because I do think that

290
00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:51,640
Speaker 5: whether they're defending without the ball and in a lower

291
00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,400
Speaker 5: block and waiting for transition, or whether they have possession,

292
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Speaker 5: City is still not going to concede much in terms

293
00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:01,760
Speaker 5: of space and shots, and so I would look to play.

294
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Speaker 1: The under on that.

295
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I would think Real will get a few good chances,

296
00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:10,360
Speaker 5: but won't necessarily be consistently putting pressure on the City

297
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Speaker 5: goal because.

298
00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,839
Speaker 1: Nobody does that to City.

299
00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:13,679
Speaker 2: Yeah.

300
00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:16,160
Speaker 5: I would definitely come in under that number. Yeah, And

301
00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:17,760
Speaker 5: that's a fun way to attack this.

302
00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:21,720
Speaker 4: Exactly because even the five to two game against Real

303
00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,320
Speaker 4: Jedd nine shots in that game, like it was like

304
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,520
Speaker 4: they just got off a ton of shots. So yeah,

305
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,560
Speaker 4: I agree, and that's kind of typically what's happened to

306
00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:29,640
Speaker 4: them against Barcelona as well.

307
00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,080
Speaker 2: They haven't had a.

308
00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:33,880
Speaker 4: Giant number of shots against those type of teams, so

309
00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:38,680
Speaker 4: I agree. But that's enough Real Madrid Manchester City because

310
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Speaker 4: there is another semi final tie and one of these

311
00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,520
Speaker 4: two teams is going to face Manchester City or Real Madrid.

312
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:45,800
Speaker 2: And it's a fun one.

313
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Speaker 4: It's a Milan Darby at the San Sero ac Milan

314
00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,600
Speaker 4: will be the home team for the first leg. They

315
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,480
Speaker 4: are sitting at plus two ten eight. Inter Milan is

316
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,560
Speaker 4: plus one fifty with the draw at plus two ten

317
00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:05,200
Speaker 4: as well. Inter is at bet three sixty five is

318
00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,640
Speaker 4: a minus one eighty eight favorite to advance, while Acey

319
00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:13,000
Speaker 4: Milan is at plus one thirty seven. The big news

320
00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 4: going into this one is the status of Raphael Lau

321
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,920
Speaker 4: he picked up an injury over the weekend against Lazio.

322
00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:23,800
Speaker 4: We are unsure at the time of taping if he

323
00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:28,200
Speaker 4: is going to play or not, which is very, very

324
00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:32,320
Speaker 4: big for AC Milan. I have already bet Inter if

325
00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:33,920
Speaker 4: you follow in the action work gap. When the odds

326
00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,800
Speaker 4: came out, Inter was a pretty significant underdog, which I

327
00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:38,880
Speaker 4: thought was a little crazy considering that these two teams

328
00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,400
Speaker 4: play at the exact same stadium. So I have already

329
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,720
Speaker 4: have bet Inter pick at plus one oh five.

330
00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:48,440
Speaker 2: But I still do see a little.

331
00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:49,720
Speaker 4: Bit of value on Inter. But I'll let you get

332
00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:51,200
Speaker 4: your thoughts in here first. What do you think about

333
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,040
Speaker 4: this second semi final time?

334
00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:54,400
Speaker 2: Yeah?

335
00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,720
Speaker 1: Where is Inter supposed to be worse than Milan?

336
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Speaker 2: Yeah? It's crazy.

337
00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:02,320
Speaker 5: I mean, like Inter's old and Milan has a much

338
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:06,880
Speaker 5: younger team and they're more dynamic, I think athletically, But

339
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:12,640
Speaker 5: like on No Earth, is Milan a better team and

340
00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 5: they haven't been in all this year and without Leao,

341
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,960
Speaker 5: who is dynamite in transition, just like an electric player,

342
00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:24,560
Speaker 5: it feels like the window for Milan winning this match

343
00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 5: goes away outside of course, just like single game variants,

344
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 5: if he's not able to go, I mean Leao. This

345
00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:35,000
Speaker 5: season we talked about him. I mean, he had that

346
00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:36,600
Speaker 5: really rough patch of for him coming off the World

347
00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 5: Cup and it coincided with when Milan was really bad.

348
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:42,800
Speaker 5: He's putting out zero point sixty four x G plus

349
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 5: xa P ninety, which is a very good forward production

350
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,440
Speaker 5: points seventy nine goals and it says for ninety so

351
00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 5: almost every other game going in the sist nineteen goal

352
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,640
Speaker 5: contributions in twenty four games. He's played a lot of minutes,

353
00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,640
Speaker 5: and from a ball progression standpoint, that's really where he's

354
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:03,480
Speaker 5: made his biggest impact. And I think that's it's really

355
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:05,080
Speaker 5: going to be a problem. I mean, he's completed fifty

356
00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,080
Speaker 5: two passes into the penalty area in Syria this year.

357
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:12,439
Speaker 5: Next best is Broughthing Diaz at thirty six, so not

358
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,440
Speaker 5: only has seen elite passer and a lad dribbler. Most

359
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:20,560
Speaker 5: carries into the penalty area sixty next best on a

360
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 5: SI Milan is sixteen, and.

361
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:25,320
Speaker 1: Then you carries in the final third.

362
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 5: He has the most total progressive carriers.

363
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:32,240
Speaker 1: He has the most. So you look at the difference between.

364
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 5: You know, somebody like a Diaz and Eliao, which is

365
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,719
Speaker 5: essentially the two guys that they rely have relied on

366
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 5: most of the season for ball progression. Diaz just loses

367
00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,680
Speaker 5: the ball a ton more, and like, I don't think

368
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,239
Speaker 5: there's a real solution for that. I mean, Leo has

369
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:53,480
Speaker 5: almost as many attacking penaltyary touches as dru In about

370
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:57,680
Speaker 5: its same number of minutes, So you know, without him,

371
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,560
Speaker 5: I don't really see this team being any good. And

372
00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:02,640
Speaker 5: when he hasn't been on the pitch, they haven't been good.

373
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 1: So all of these.

374
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:07,720
Speaker 5: Things make me worried about Milan. I already didn't like them.

375
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,240
Speaker 5: The market doesn't think he's playing for certain the way

376
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 5: that the line moved, So it sucks because I was

377
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 5: excited for this tie. I still am, but this feels

378
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,560
Speaker 5: like Enters the much better team. Inter still has the

379
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 5: second best underline numbers of all of the teams in Italy.

380
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 5: They've had a really weird run of finishing for a

381
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:33,320
Speaker 5: lot of the season because Lautaro and and Lucaco have

382
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:39,320
Speaker 5: been so inconsistent, but you know, they've shown their abilities

383
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,880
Speaker 5: this year. And and like you said, with the no travel,

384
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,679
Speaker 5: you know, I gave the tiniest of home field advantages

385
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 5: just for the fans, because I do you know, it'll

386
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 5: be a pro AC Milan fan crowd for the first

387
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:54,440
Speaker 5: game and more Inter heavy for the second, but it's

388
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 5: going to be a lot of pretty even. But I

389
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 5: think in the end, you know the way they sell

390
00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,280
Speaker 5: the tickets, sure, but you know that there's plenty of

391
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,199
Speaker 5: fans that will sneak in for the first leg and

392
00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 5: vice versa for the second. So yeah, I can't get

393
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,200
Speaker 5: to it being anything close to a coin flip. So

394
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,480
Speaker 5: I'm going to take Intro to Advance minus one thirty four.

395
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 5: If you've followed me or followed us since the start

396
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 5: of the knockouts, and you know we had that thirty

397
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:20,199
Speaker 5: four to one that we're sitting on with Inter, so

398
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 5: riding that. But I think this is a pretty good

399
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 5: matchup for Inter, especially if Leah can't go. Yep, they've

400
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 5: played three times this year, three wins or two wins

401
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 5: for Inter, one win for Milan, XG was in favor

402
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:38,640
Speaker 5: of Inter, and all three.

403
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:43,199
Speaker 4: Exactly, And that's the thing. Now here's the argument that

404
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 4: I think some people will make is say, well, if

405
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 4: AC Milan was able to do basically be the better

406
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 4: team over two legs against Napoli, what makes you think

407
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:56,199
Speaker 4: they can't do the same to Inter. Well, Inter is

408
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 4: a much different team than Napoli, and Inter can play

409
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,440
Speaker 4: really two different and types of styles with their three

410
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,160
Speaker 4: to five to two they're now they're very very good

411
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 4: at attacking the wide areas and they complete the most

412
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:07,639
Speaker 4: crosses of anybody.

413
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 2: In Syria into the penalty area.

414
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 4: And what they also do a great job of is

415
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 4: they can be a great build up possession style team

416
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 4: when they're facing smaller sides, and then when they face

417
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 4: bigger teams they can be really deadly in transition and

418
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 4: it really cause problems.

419
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 2: Like I already mentioned those wide areas.

420
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,240
Speaker 4: If you look at the two over the two legs

421
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 4: against Benefica, they didn't. They allowed Benefica to control over

422
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 4: fifty five percent possession in both of those meetings, still

423
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 4: scored four goals.

424
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 2: It was off a two point six expected.

425
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 4: But that's the problem that a c mLAN is gonna

426
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 4: run into here running here too, because in all three

427
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 4: of those meetings they were not able to disrupt build

428
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,000
Speaker 4: up play like they did against Snappy and both ties.

429
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 4: If you look at the first one, all I mean

430
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:49,959
Speaker 4: on all three of those meetings, their pass super defensive

431
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:53,359
Speaker 4: action was above ten and even the second. They're the

432
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 4: last meeting, which you know take it with Grand Salt

433
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 4: dey Ornandez did not play. It was during as Mulan's

434
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 4: bad run off form, but Enter tilted the field at

435
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:06,360
Speaker 4: fifty at seventy seven percent, and ac Milan only had

436
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 4: one penalty box shot and didn't act, actually didn't have

437
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 4: a shot until the fifty eighth minute. So without layout,

438
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 4: we could be seeing similar type numbers to that.

439
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 2: There.

440
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,400
Speaker 4: And I mean the other case for racy Milan here

441
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 4: is that when they faced Napoli, Oshman missed the first

442
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:29,120
Speaker 4: leg and then and Gisa and kim Minja.

443
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 2: Missed the second legs.

444
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 4: They're very fortunate with injuries that way. Now they're going

445
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,119
Speaker 4: to be without Layou, who, like you already mentioned, is

446
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 4: everything to their attack. Some of the other crazy numbers

447
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 4: he's averaging per ninety minutes thirteen point seventy five progressive

448
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 4: passes or progressive carries and progressive passes received, so he.

449
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 2: Is everything to their attack.

450
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,160
Speaker 4: And now they have to rely on a trio of Jarud,

451
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 4: Benissera and Diaz like that's not good. So for me,

452
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 4: you know, I essentially took projection wise, it took twenty

453
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 4: cents off of my projection for Acemalan to account for

454
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 4: the loss of layout, and now I'm at Inter plus

455
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,239
Speaker 4: one oh two for this first leg. So there's an

456
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 4: Inter plus one fifty out there. If you already haven't

457
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 4: bet them, I would say that there is definitely value

458
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 4: on that. There's just like you mentioned, there's way too

459
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:29,919
Speaker 4: many tactical advantages, personnel advantages for Inter here. They've already

460
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 4: been the better team three times against Acemalan, so I

461
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 4: think it's Inter or nothing here in the first leg.

462
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 4: All right, that'll do it for the Champions League semifinals.

463
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 4: Let's move on to the Europa League semifinals. Two teams

464
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 4: we are very fond of here. In the first of

465
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 4: two semifinals, Juventus is a minus one thirty four home

466
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 4: favorite Savia sitting at four to one. That draws sitting

467
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 4: at plus two sixty, Ventus is minus one seventy five

468
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 4: to advance Sevilla at plus one twenty five.

469
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 2: I kind of like the over here.

470
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 4: I think it's it's a little too low considering these

471
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 4: two teams. But I'll let you get your thoughts in

472
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 4: here first. What do you think in between these two

473
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 4: teams we are so so fond of.

474
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, from a from an edge point of view, total

475
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 5: from a side perspective, I have nothing on this. I

476
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 5: think agree with the numbers about right. Juventus a better team,

477
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 5: marginally better and laying about three quarters of a goal

478
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 5: is about where I projected to be. But both of

479
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 5: these teams are still super flawed defensively, and that's really

480
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 5: what it comes down to for me at least, is that,

481
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 5: you know, Juventus has been getting healthier in their attack

482
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 5: and they've been putting up not great but you know,

483
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 5: you can squint a little bit and see somewhat better

484
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 5: production as an attack if if you kind of look

485
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 5: through some of the games where they've had a fully

486
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 5: fit team, you know, put up almost three XG against Bologna,

487
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 5: almost two against let Jay, were competent in the match

488
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 5: against you, and the match can enter the first like

489
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 5: that is of the of the semifinals. So they do

490
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,959
Speaker 5: beat out Alanta today, although there was some pretty good

491
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 5: bounces that went their way in that one. I just

492
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 5: really don't trust either of these defenses enough though. And

493
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 5: we were just talking off their about how concerning juventuses

494
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 5: and you can get more into that, but Savilla is still.

495
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 1: One of the five worst defenses in Spain. And as

496
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 1: good as they've been.

497
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 5: At home at times this year, like, they have not

498
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 5: traveled well either. We saw how good they you know,

499
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 5: how well they played defensively against United for example, even

500
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 5: against PSV in the round prior. But when they've gone

501
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 5: on the road, you know, even at PSV at United

502
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 5: they really were up under a lot of pressure, could

503
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 5: not play through it and see a ton of chances.

504
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 5: And then you know in Spain they're conceding over one

505
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 5: and a half per ninety. So I think both teams

506
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 5: are scoring over is the look here, it's gross because

507
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 5: of how these teams tend to play. And you know

508
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 5: they have the first leg and you get the tax

509
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 5: and everything, but this is ho hold your nose over

510
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 5: for me.

511
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 4: I agree, Uh, you can find over two and a

512
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 4: half at plus one thirty out there. And I mean

513
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 4: so Juventus's defensive numbers in Syria are very, very concerning.

514
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,360
Speaker 4: I understand they've only conceded twenty eight goals, that's off

515
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 4: of around thirty seven expected, so they vastly overformed and.

516
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 2: They are an incredibly passive defense. Under a legry, they are.

517
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 4: Seventeenth and passive per defensive action, they're second to last

518
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 4: and final third entries allowed, Like I don't care how

519
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 4: passive you are. That is awful for a team of

520
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 4: Uventus's stature. You know, fifteenth in crosses loud in their penalty,

521
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 4: which is obviously huge against Sevilla because that's how Sevilla

522
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 4: creates a lot of their chances. I don't care if

523
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 4: Low petagies at Wolves right now, this is still the

524
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 4: same low Pataggy style team and Savilla is top five

525
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 4: at playing through pressure in La Lega, they're still top

526
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 4: five and final third entries, there's seventh and progressive passes

527
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 4: and dribbles and it's a tea.

528
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 2: It's a very slow.

529
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 4: Build up team that needs to have possession to be

530
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 4: successful obviously at the ball in wide areas and cross

531
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 4: it in eighty two build up attacks compared to just

532
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,239
Speaker 4: thirty three direct attacks. If they're able to just go

533
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 4: into uvents as final third without much resistance, Given the

534
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 4: way they've been attacking lately and the improvements that we've

535
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 4: seen there four point en expected goals in their last

536
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 4: two league matches, they definitely can put the ball into

537
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 4: the back of the net against a team that's very

538
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 4: very average at defending their penalty or I mean, Juvenus

539
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 4: is still only seventh in non penalty expected goals a

540
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 4: loud and tenth and shots for ninety So this is

541
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 4: not like an elite Juventus defense like we've seen in

542
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,919
Speaker 4: years past. And Juventus, I mean they offensively you mentioned it,

543
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 4: like they they have gotten better since the World Cup.

544
00:26:56,440 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 4: They've averaged They've created over one expected goal in every

545
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 4: single match except for four except for a match against Roma,

546
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 4: the match against Inter, the first leg against Sporting and

547
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 4: then a matchkins Snapley.

548
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 2: Those are all very very good defensive teams. Savilla is

549
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 2: not that.

550
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 4: So this is also one of those game state dependent

551
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 4: type of matches I believe, because both with both these

552
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 4: teams very very slow build up style. A goal needs

553
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 4: to go in for us to kick things into hyper gear. So,

554
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 4: like you mentioned, we're seeing the tax because it's the

555
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 4: first leg, because it's two slow build up teams, But

556
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 4: everything we're looking at with underlying numbers, this game is

557
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 4: screaming over, especially at a price of plus one thirty,

558
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 4: and I do have around two point seven goals projected

559
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 4: for it, so I'll be on over two and a half.

560
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 2: At plus one thirty.

561
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the second. This is

562
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 4: a fun one Roma hosting Leverkusen Josen Marinez. Roma is

563
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 4: plus one ten, Leverkusen a plus two seventy five road underdog.

564
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 4: With the draw at plus two thirty.

565
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 2: This is minus one ten both ways for.

566
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 4: Each team to advance. This is a very very even encounter.

567
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 4: I have future tickets on both these teams. Yeah, here's

568
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 4: the problem is I do have Rome minus one twenty

569
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 4: five here, but Roma's form has been bad lately, like

570
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 4: that was a bad performance, gets to enter over the weekend,

571
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 4: very very concerning, and then you look at the other side, Well,

572
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 4: Leverkusen had a lackluster showing against Unyan, then they just

573
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 4: lost at home to Cologne on Friday. So the form

574
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,360
Speaker 4: of both these teams is very concerning, which is what's

575
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 4: keeping me off of it. But what do you think

576
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 4: for Shabi Alonso versus Josemerino.

577
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is one where I think these two teams

578
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 5: are very similar, and thus I don't really want to.

579
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: Kind of bet it where I have.

580
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 5: To lay a favorite, right, And that's the case in

581
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 5: the first leg with Roma, and it will be the

582
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 5: second case next week when we have this exact same

583
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 5: conversation when it comes to betting Leverkusen.

584
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: There's different reasons for that.

585
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 5: Leverkusen for me, is a much better team when they

586
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 5: get to profile as an underdog and they get to

587
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 5: play in transition as much as possible.

588
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 1: But do you ever get to play in transition against Roma.

589
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 5: No, If they're one of the best teams in the

590
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 5: world that defending their penalty area and they don't really

591
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 5: commit numbers forward, especially in the first leg of a

592
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 5: two leg tie, it's just not Joey's not gonna do it,

593
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 5: even if it means sacrificing win probability when he's at

594
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 5: home in the first leg and probably needs a win.

595
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: And so for that reason, I don't really trust Roma.

596
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 5: So I'm a little concerned about, you know, what we're

597
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 5: going to see from Roma from attacking perspective too, because look,

598
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 5: would jose be unhappy with the tie here if it

599
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 5: went back one to one or noil No and went

600
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 5: to Leverkusen and he got to play the underdog role.

601
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 5: Try to grind it out, you know, you can pull

602
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 5: some data on Roma and kind of I don't like

603
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 5: to do this normally because it starts to get a

604
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 5: little bit too into the weeds and like cutting out

605
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 5: certain results and now you're getting into like a very

606
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 5: kind of different sphere.

607
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: But Roma has put up two x G per.

608
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:11,959
Speaker 5: Match in all Serie A matches against Milan, not against

609
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 5: the other teams that they're competing with for the spots.

610
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 5: So against not Milan, Napoli, you've Inter and Lazzio, that's

611
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 5: two x G per match. Right, Like I said, if

612
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 5: you take out those games, then you just look at

613
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 5: those games specifically, they're at like one point one to three. Now,

614
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 5: some of that comes down to talent, like you're playing

615
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 5: better teams, so you're not going to create as many chances.

616
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 5: But it feels to me like Roma and the reason

617
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 5: we love them in the tournament setting is because they're

618
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 5: so good at this. When they play the teams that

619
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 5: are comparable to them talent level, they don't even really

620
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 5: take any chances. They can't create anything. They commit no

621
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 5: numbers for it. They hope for one or two openings.

622
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: We saw what.

623
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 5: Roma can be when they played final in the second

624
00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 5: leg from playing from behind, created almost three and a

625
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 5: half x and when one going away, but in a

626
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 5: first like favorite, no thank you, absolutely not, So this

627
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 5: passed from me. Hopefully they get the early goal and

628
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 5: then we can sit on it, because I do not

629
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 5: think Leverkusen matches up well playing from behind in this

630
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 5: tie at all. So if we can just get a lead,

631
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 5: I feel very confident in Roma.

632
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 2: You know, it's crazy though he's the ride twenty three

633
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 2: to one. I'm feeling good.

634
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 1: I think that we four away coin flip.

635
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 5: I really do like Savi's the worst team, literally, but

636
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 5: in a one off I don't think Roma is inherently worse.

637
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 5: Were necessarily better than any of the teams that are

638
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 5: still left. So we got to where we wanted. We

639
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 5: just need the coins to flip our way and some

640
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 5: chances and Tammy, you know, found the goal a couple

641
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 5: of weeks ago, so hopefully he's in the lineup.

642
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: We'll see.

643
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 5: That's the other thing with Marino. It's like some days

644
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 5: he just decides he's not gonna play Bilotti, Abraham or

645
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 5: Debala and you're just like, oh, great.

646
00:31:58,320 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 2: Starts.

647
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 5: Like they were flat against Intern yesterday, but I don't

648
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 5: really care. M Like, they clearly are focused on the

649
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 5: Europa League here.

650
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 4: So right, and you know, to your point about Roma

651
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 4: playing up to better competition against every single team that's

652
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 4: essentially above them. Right now, no team has created over

653
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 4: one expectacle against them in Syria.

654
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 2: Like that's how good they are defensive.

655
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 5: It's amazing, but some goals they've been unlucky and like

656
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 5: Patricia's kind of mid But yep, they're the best. They're

657
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 5: the best box defending team in European Sacla League.

658
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 1: They're better than City. They are.

659
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 2: They are better than City, Like it's I think I

660
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 2: mentioned theyn't have.

661
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 1: As much of the ball and so they you know,

662
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: ver but.

663
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 2: But they have.

664
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 4: They have taken over Majorca as the best final third

665
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 4: box entry conversion rate allowed team in Europe's top five leagues.

666
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:53,959
Speaker 4: I mean they're under twenty percent. Like that's an insane

667
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 4: number to think about. But yeah, no, uh, it's tough

668
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 4: because now Shabi Alonso and Leverkusen, I've mentioned them before

669
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 4: when they play Udian is what he's done is he's

670
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 4: changed them into kind of a Jose Marine Us type

671
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 4: team in Germany as well, Like no longer is Leverkusen

672
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 4: this high pressing, you know, full throttle tilt type team.

673
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: They're a very passive team now as.

674
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 4: Well that likes to play a low block and like

675
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 4: you mentioned, loves to play in transition.

676
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 2: So this is again gonna be a very game state

677
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 2: dependent type tie of how you bet.

678
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 4: It's so you know, if this thing is a draw,

679
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 4: if it's one one or zero zero, Well, Leverkusen is

680
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 4: probably gonna be plus one ten at home in the

681
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 4: second leg, and we're gonna come back here. We're probably

682
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 4: gonna have the exact same conversation, but it will be

683
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 4: interesting with either team is ahead and which team's got

684
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 4: to come from behind, so it'll be interesting. But it's

685
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:44,479
Speaker 4: a pass for both of us on that.

686
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 5: So I mean I would personally bet Roma to advance

687
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 5: if you don't have a Yeah, I trust them. They're

688
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,239
Speaker 5: better defensively in a tie that I don't think we'll

689
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 5: have a ton in it, I trust them better. I

690
00:33:56,320 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 5: think both goalkeepers can be questionable at times. Ardeski playing

691
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 5: out from the back is always a nightmare. Patricia just

692
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 5: doesn't do that, so that takes part of the issue out.

693
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, I would give.

694
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 5: The slightest of leans to Roma if you're looking to

695
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 5: bet at two advanced ticket, But I don't bet them

696
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 5: plus one ten.

697
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 1: Bet them to advance.

698
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 5: It's a much better bet because I think there's way

699
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 5: more scenarios where Roma doesn't win and advances than there

700
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:23,919
Speaker 5: are where they win and then don't win this match

701
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 5: and then don't advance next week and in at Levercous exactly.

702
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have I mean I have Roma at minus

703
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 4: one forty seven to advance out of this tie against

704
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 4: leverkus too much, though, it's a little too much, and

705
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 4: I got to go in and an account for a

706
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 4: little bit of only Leverkusen or Shabi Alonzo's that number

707
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 4: probably come down to around my guess only accounting for

708
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 4: what Shabi Alonso has, because you mean, I mean Leverracusen

709
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 4: has been allowing under one expected gole per ninety with

710
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:53,280
Speaker 4: him in charge.

711
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:56,959
Speaker 2: So again, very very interesting tie here. So but yeah,

712
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 2: I agree with you.

713
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,280
Speaker 4: If you're going to bet something, bet Roma to advance ants,

714
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 4: all right, that'll do it for this episode of Wonder Goal.

715
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:05,760
Speaker 2: Thank you all for listening.

716
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 4: We will be back on Thursday morning for your weekend

717
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 4: preview of the Premier League and across Europe. Until then,

718
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 4: for Anthony Dubundo, I'm BJ Cunningham. Thank you again to

719
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 4: our sponsor Bet three sixty five and good luck with

720
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 4: your Champions League and Europa League bets this week.

721
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 2: We'll see you on Thursday morning.

722
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:35,000
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723
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,840
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724
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