Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Leye. We bring
Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and
Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. Johnny
Speaker 1: is now in place the Saince Victoria Ferinande's chief market
Speaker 1: strategistic cross Mark Global Investments. Victoria, is this a case
Speaker 1: of Tommy, why should hike in March? Or if we's changed,
Speaker 1: is it a case of Timmy, why shouldn't hike in March?
Speaker 1: I still think it's tell me why we should, and
Speaker 1: I think that's what the FETE is betting on at
Speaker 1: this point in time. I know everyone is saying March
Speaker 1: is a live meeting. They're anticipating they're going to see
Speaker 1: that first rate hike in March. I'm not so sure.
Speaker 1: When we sit around our investment table across Mark, we're
Speaker 1: thinking it's going to be maybe a little bit later.
Speaker 1: We're still looking at June for that first rate hike,
Speaker 1: and I think the FED is hoping that we're gonna
Speaker 1: see inflation hit the peak levels in the first quarter
Speaker 1: of the year, and then because of base effects and
Speaker 1: the difference that we see from a year ago numbers,
Speaker 1: hopefully we'll have supply chain issues being a little bit better,
Speaker 1: so goods inflation comes back down. If the job openings
Speaker 1: continue to be um steady and people keep coming back
Speaker 1: to the labor market, perhaps wages come back a little bit,
Speaker 1: and so inflation will start to decrease a little bit
Speaker 1: on that year over year number and give them some
Speaker 1: room to wait until June. So I think my betting
Speaker 1: is still on June, but futures are showing March is
Speaker 1: a live meeting, Victoria. How do your assumptions there that
Speaker 1: you're making about federal reserve policy then translates into the
Speaker 1: assumptions you are making about this bond market. Yeah, so,
Speaker 1: you know, you look at where the bond market has
Speaker 1: been pricing things, and you guys have been talking about
Speaker 1: it this morning, and I really think the long end
Speaker 1: of the curve has been under priced for quite some time.
Speaker 1: You were talking about people's projections. We were looking to
Speaker 1: be around that March hive around one seventy five on
Speaker 1: the US tenure by the end of this year, and
Speaker 1: I don't think with the week to go we're gonna
Speaker 1: hit that. Possibly we hit the one fifty level and
Speaker 1: maybe go a little bit above there. But I think
Speaker 1: growth is going to be a little bit better than
Speaker 1: people anticipate in the first quarter because we're gonna have
Speaker 1: strong earnings. Yes, evaluations may come down some, but I
Speaker 1: think we'll have strong earnings. I think we'll have good growth.
Speaker 1: I think we'll start to see inflation pressures ease a
Speaker 1: little bit and that's going to allow the longer into
Speaker 1: the curve to go and maybe steep in the curve
Speaker 1: a little bit. This is such a flat curve for
Speaker 1: the Fed to start hiking. I think they want to
Speaker 1: see that steepness a little bit, and perhaps we get
Speaker 1: a small amount of that in the first quarter. What
Speaker 1: what is holding the tenier yield down? Victori? I mean,
Speaker 1: who's buying this paper? Um As we talk about the
Speaker 1: possibility of two or even three rate hikes next year.
Speaker 1: You know, Matt, I have this exact conversation with the
Speaker 1: client on Thursday, and you know, why is the bond
Speaker 1: market staying where it is? And we can talk about
Speaker 1: there's unserve t there's flight to quality. I think a
Speaker 1: lot of it, though, is you look at sovereign debt
Speaker 1: around the world. We have such low levels still, and
Speaker 1: I think that that's pulling down some of what we're
Speaker 1: seeing in the US. I don't think it's all just
Speaker 1: US centric as to why rates are so low Comparatively
Speaker 1: around the world. We have people still coming in because
Speaker 1: relatively the yields are higher, but I think we have
Speaker 1: lower yields globally holding us down. You have some uncertainty
Speaker 1: still with the Omicron variant out there, even though we
Speaker 1: think the effects are less than what we've seen in
Speaker 1: previous variants. But I still think you have that uncertainty
Speaker 1: and questioning what the FED is going to do that
Speaker 1: is holding yields back a little bit. At this point, Victoria,
Speaker 1: there is this belief that if you have higher interest
Speaker 1: rates the start of a right hiking cycle, the financial
Speaker 1: conditions have to tighten, the equity markets have to fall.
Speaker 1: I can think of several experiences in recent financial market
Speaker 1: history where quite the opposite has happened. I can think
Speaker 1: of the tightening experience going into oh seven, where equity
Speaker 1: markets continued alleying really aggressively even as rate hikes started
Speaker 1: to come through quite quickly. Can you envision a similar
Speaker 1: scenario taking place this time around? I just see deeply
Speaker 1: negative real interest rates and think how much work does
Speaker 1: the FED need to do to actually tighten financial conditions. Yeah.
Speaker 1: You know, historically, when we look at what goes on
Speaker 1: in a rate hiking cycle, throughout the tapering and even
Speaker 1: through the first rate hike, you continue to see equity
Speaker 1: markets rally, and we don't really see the equity markets
Speaker 1: take a hit until maybe that second of that third
Speaker 1: rate hike. Again, if we're looking at June as a
Speaker 1: first rate hike, even if we say it's March, you're
Speaker 1: looking at the second half of this year before it
Speaker 1: starts to affect equity markets. And yes, we have these
Speaker 1: really low real interest rates and it's gonna take us
Speaker 1: a while to get those up. So you have low
Speaker 1: rates for the equity market that will help valuations for
Speaker 1: a while, even though I think they start to come
Speaker 1: down a little bit from current um levels of where
Speaker 1: they are on the valuation side, but I still still
Speaker 1: think you have strong support for the equity market at
Speaker 1: least in the first quarter, possibly the first half of
Speaker 1: next year. Then I think we start to have a
Speaker 1: little bit more concern and see sideways growth for the
Speaker 1: equity market instead of continually trending higher. And when we
Speaker 1: get a little bit more specific within equities, Victoria, where
Speaker 1: do you want to be putting your money? And why
Speaker 1: do you like the banks here? With the curve this flat? Yeah?
Speaker 1: So Kaylee. When we look at the equity market, I mean,
Speaker 1: let's look at the SMP five hundred. At the end
Speaker 1: of last year, you had over of the SMP above
Speaker 1: it's two D day moving average. That's come down. Now
Speaker 1: we're rarely around sixty six of the SMP above that level,
Speaker 1: So I think you have to start really picking your
Speaker 1: names carefully when we look at them. The outlook for
Speaker 1: next year. Financials have been hit quite hard, but yet
Speaker 1: there's still in an uptrend. There's still some momentum there,
Speaker 1: so we think it's a great time to go in UM.
Speaker 1: I think they have stronger balance sheets than they've had before,
Speaker 1: there's upside potential for dividends next year, their cheap to
Speaker 1: the market, and as we mentioned, we do think rates
Speaker 1: are gonna go a little bit higher on the longer
Speaker 1: end of the curve. So it looks like a place
Speaker 1: and we want quality going into next year. So you
Speaker 1: look at Bank America, JP Morgan. These are the two
Speaker 1: names that we really focus on in that sector. Victoria,
Speaker 1: thank the family for letting us borrow you for ten minutes.
Speaker 1: We appreciate it. Victoria Fernandez that of cross Mark, thank
Speaker 1: you very much, just jointing us now in place to say,
Speaker 1: Mohammed Juanist the editor in chief of Gallup. Mohammed, great
Speaker 1: time and to catch up with you, sir, looking ahead
Speaker 1: to next year. The approval writing of leadership in this administration, Mohammed,
Speaker 1: is it a simplest saying it's gone in one direction,
Speaker 1: it's heading lower. It's kind of stuck right now. Um
Speaker 1: and we don't know where it's going. But this team
Speaker 1: started off with a really promising approval rating, especially on
Speaker 1: the pandemic. They were at six and ten Americans approving
Speaker 1: of how they were handling it in late January early February.
Speaker 1: But on every metric now the Biden team has really
Speaker 1: crunched down to the low forties on foreign Paul see,
Speaker 1: on the pandemic, on the economy. Um. Our latest number
Speaker 1: is just overall approval of President Biden uh and and
Speaker 1: how he does his job. And he's at right now,
Speaker 1: since the fall of kabbal, which is seems like a
Speaker 1: lifetime ago but was in September, we haven't really seen
Speaker 1: that number move at all. Uh. Congress is doing even
Speaker 1: worse than the president right now approval of the job
Speaker 1: that Congress is doing so um. You know, this administration
Speaker 1: started with the America is Back the theme. When you
Speaker 1: look at the partisanship challenges, it really does feel like
Speaker 1: the same old America. UM. And this team is really
Speaker 1: up against some very serious resistance in terms of trying
Speaker 1: to find common ground because we don't see that in
Speaker 1: the data. Well in Mohammed. That paints a pretty bleak
Speaker 1: picture for the Democratic Party heading into the mid terms.
Speaker 1: And when we talk about build back Better and that,
Speaker 1: you know, being something crucial for them, is that actually
Speaker 1: going to be enough to move the needle? Is it popular?
Speaker 1: It's the popular support there for it, and you know,
Speaker 1: it really depends on the spin around it. Um. It
Speaker 1: was really ironic when you were talking about what's going
Speaker 1: to be left of build back if it gets past
Speaker 1: I started to think of Obamacare and these massive legislative
Speaker 1: acts that really are very different when they get past
Speaker 1: that what was initially promised and envisioned um to the public.
Speaker 1: But it's not just the Democrats. We see the Republicans
Speaker 1: also really struggling to get approval from anyone beyond their
Speaker 1: very basic ideological base. So Mitch McConnell, for example, the
Speaker 1: Senate Republican leader, he's at thirty percent approval, sixty disapproval.
Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi approval fifty percent disapproval. So it really goes
Speaker 1: on both sides. Um, if you're not a Democrat, you
Speaker 1: don't have a great feeling about democratic leadership. If you're
Speaker 1: not a Republican, it's about the same. How big are
Speaker 1: those ideological bases, moham it, and how much has that changed?
Speaker 1: Are we looking at basically thirty on either side that
Speaker 1: aren't going to change their opinion no matter what happens.
Speaker 1: It's such a great question that, Matt, because that's what's
Speaker 1: really changed in America. It's not thirty forty, it's really
Speaker 1: about twenty on each side. America now has the highest
Speaker 1: rate of people who identify as independence. So the general public,
Speaker 1: if you will, us non politically minded people have really
Speaker 1: plugged out and tuned out of the in fighting between
Speaker 1: the two parties. Um. You mentioned the midterm election. It
Speaker 1: is so critical that this is gonna be the first
Speaker 1: mid term election since President Biden has taken office. Um.
Speaker 1: The world is watching Ukraine and unfortunately American leadership is
Speaker 1: gonna be watching the pit term election. UM. So a
Speaker 1: lot of the dynamics while the rhetoric has really changed
Speaker 1: since the Trump administration, a lot of those partisan divides
Speaker 1: really have gone nowhere. Unelected officials did much better in
Speaker 1: our poll in December then elected officials, So there are
Speaker 1: some bright points, um, but when it comes to Congress
Speaker 1: and the presidency, it's really a pretty ugly picture. By
Speaker 1: the way, you mentioned on alleged officials. I wonder about
Speaker 1: America's take on Anthony Fauci. Um. He seems to be
Speaker 1: a very partisan figure. Do I have that wrong? No? UM.
Speaker 1: It's interesting because Dr Fauci actually is one of the
Speaker 1: leaders that did the best. UM. He got fifty approval
Speaker 1: for seven disapproval, but when you look at it by party, UM,
Speaker 1: only nine of Republicans approval of the job he's doing.
Speaker 1: The surprise to me, and as recovering attorney here was
Speaker 1: Justice Roberts. Justice Roberts actually got the highest approval of
Speaker 1: all the leaders we asked about he got a sixty
Speaker 1: approval rating, and it's actually an improvement in the past
Speaker 1: several poles that we've done of his own approval rating.
Speaker 1: So it'll be really interesting to watch where that goes
Speaker 1: as these really critical decisions, especially on abortion, come up
Speaker 1: to the Court. But it is remarkable that in a
Speaker 1: year where the Court is really trying to argue that
Speaker 1: it's a political um, the leader of the Court actually
Speaker 1: did better than most selected officials. Mohammed, what do you
Speaker 1: think driving that for paper doo time followed Supreme Court
Speaker 1: decisions or the process than closely? What do you think
Speaker 1: driving that unexpected decisions? I would say, Um, Justice Roberts
Speaker 1: has taken positions that if you were simply guessing on
Speaker 1: the party that appointed the justice, Um, he hasn't take
Speaker 1: He hasn't taken the partisan line on every decision. Um.
Speaker 1: But again, the Supreme Court is something that Americans don't
Speaker 1: pay a lot of attention to until there's a huge story,
Speaker 1: and there's gonna be a massive story in two with
Speaker 1: whether or not Roe v. Wade is upheld. So these
Speaker 1: numbers are likely to change dramatically both for Justice Roberts
Speaker 1: at perceptions of court Mohammed, looking forward to catching up
Speaker 1: with you through next year to have God is through
Speaker 1: some of those issues. Mahmat units that joining us from Gallophon.
Speaker 1: Another person working today even though technically it's actually his
Speaker 1: week off, so this is his only job to do
Speaker 1: this morning is Jose Rasco, America's Chief investment Officer for
Speaker 1: HSBC Private Banking and Wealth Management. Jose, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for making time for us on a holiday week.
Speaker 1: As we look through the last rating week of this
Speaker 1: year on to primary question is where in the cycle
Speaker 1: are we? Well, you know, Kayla, good morning to all
Speaker 1: of you, first of all, and UH, happy holidays to everybody.
Speaker 1: And clearly we think, you know, the the early part
Speaker 1: of the cycle where we see the rapid growth is
Speaker 1: behind us. We saw that peak in growth, UH and
Speaker 1: economic growth and corporate profits growth in the second quarter
Speaker 1: of last year, so we're more in a mid cycle phase.
Speaker 1: Will keep in mind, you know, especially in the US,
Speaker 1: as growth slows from let's call it, you know, round
Speaker 1: up to six percent. If it's slows so like four
Speaker 1: percent this year, that's still double the rate we historically
Speaker 1: have seen for the U S economy, more than double
Speaker 1: the rate in fact, so I think it's two is
Speaker 1: a year of normalization from our perspective in terms of
Speaker 1: fiscal policy, monetary policy, growth, and inflation. Well, and as
Speaker 1: we think about those fiscal and monetary forces easing, that
Speaker 1: is of course what drove the accelerated early part of
Speaker 1: the cycle. Does that also mean that the cycle is
Speaker 1: going to come to an end much more quickly? No,
Speaker 1: we don't think so. I think if you look at
Speaker 1: the monetary policy, you and you just both debated that
Speaker 1: monetary policy is tightening to a degree. Uh. You know,
Speaker 1: if you think of you know, tapering, QUEI is really
Speaker 1: not putting your foot on the brakes, it's really lifting
Speaker 1: your foot off the accelerator. Uh. And we think the
Speaker 1: FED has decided to let the the car move forward
Speaker 1: at its own pace a little more. But but long
Speaker 1: story short, that tightening that is just beginning. Uh. Even
Speaker 1: if the FED were to tighten three times next year
Speaker 1: and two or three times in three, the real FED
Speaker 1: funds are it's still remains quite you know, quite low
Speaker 1: uh and and in fact negative. Right, even if you
Speaker 1: get inflation slowing back toward a more normal rate of
Speaker 1: you know, two to two and a half, how responsive
Speaker 1: is this Fed going to be the market move Jose,
Speaker 1: I mean, um, is there going to be a FED
Speaker 1: put still? Well, you raise an interesting point in the
Speaker 1: sense that there are quite a few vacancies as you know,
Speaker 1: so that is going to be somewhat you know, the
Speaker 1: concern of the market is how doubbish will this FED become.
Speaker 1: We're not anticipating that they'll be too dubbish. We think
Speaker 1: they will try to move with the market, but we
Speaker 1: don't think this is going to be a FED that
Speaker 1: is going to move in advance or try to tighten
Speaker 1: to keep the market happy. Uh. And but if we
Speaker 1: think they'll be there to be supportive, So yeah, that
Speaker 1: FED but you want to go at a FED put Yeah,
Speaker 1: it remains somewhat in play, and we think they will
Speaker 1: be supportive next year of markets. Yeah, absolutely, Uh as
Speaker 1: they looking at the bigger picture, um, stepping out to
Speaker 1: the thirty five thousand foot view if you will, and
Speaker 1: your job title as chief investment officer for private banking
Speaker 1: and Wealth Management. I was talking with Kaylee this morning
Speaker 1: about Nikolai Tang again, the head of the Norwegian UM
Speaker 1: Sovereign Wealth Fund. He's concerned that returns are just going
Speaker 1: to be lower in the next decade because of inflation,
Speaker 1: because of central bank positioning. Um, he's got a one
Speaker 1: point four trillion dollars invested in this market. I think
Speaker 1: the biggest equity holder. Are you worried about lower returns
Speaker 1: going forward as well? Well, it depends on your perspective, right.
Speaker 1: If you're saying, will equity markets be lower than they
Speaker 1: were in probably yeah. I mean it's hard, you're gonna
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a tough year to beat, right, So
Speaker 1: no question or equity returns will be down from there.
Speaker 1: But one, we're sort of abnormal years in terms of
Speaker 1: economic policy and and and financial market returns. Now, going forward,
Speaker 1: if you look at next year, for example, you know
Speaker 1: the market is calling for eighteen percent growth in corporate profits. Um,
Speaker 1: that looks pretty healthy from our perspective. And keep in
Speaker 1: mind the one thing that I think a lot of
Speaker 1: people are forgetting. While we are mid cycle, in a
Speaker 1: more of a mid cycle or mature stage of the economy,
Speaker 1: there are four other factors secular forces that are going
Speaker 1: to be driving economic growth upward from our perspective. Number
Speaker 1: one is inventory rebuild, which you've talked about the depletion
Speaker 1: of inventories this morning already and how that needs to
Speaker 1: be rebuilt on a global basis. Number two is the
Speaker 1: infrastructure story, where we're seeing a lot of spending on
Speaker 1: infrastructure globally. Number three is the tech revolution. Everybody seems
Speaker 1: to have forgotten that five G is just the beginning
Speaker 1: of this technology revolution, which is gonna be a multi
Speaker 1: year rollout. And number four is the creation of you know,
Speaker 1: economy two point oh, the sustainable world that we're all
Speaker 1: talking about is finally happening, not just environment environmental issues,
Speaker 1: but socialist issues as well. Those four major super trends
Speaker 1: promised to add to growth and productivity as we go forward.
Speaker 1: So um, it's easy to be negative, right, but I
Speaker 1: think if you look at those four secular trends, those
Speaker 1: forbal factor in as well to the cyclical story. Alright,
Speaker 1: So looking at the world through that lens, Jose, where
Speaker 1: or do you want to put your money? Specifically? Well,
Speaker 1: our focus if you look at fixed income, our focus
Speaker 1: is looking at areas that provides some some better returns,
Speaker 1: and we're looking at high yield and in certain parts
Speaker 1: of the world as well as emerging markets. If you
Speaker 1: look at the equity markets were more focused on the US,
Speaker 1: where we see you know, stability of growth and earnings
Speaker 1: and even though it's going to be a choppy year
Speaker 1: because of the political cycle, but we think the US
Speaker 1: will do very well this year with expectations of eighteen
Speaker 1: percent growth and earnings. That gives us a lot of
Speaker 1: upside potential for the equity markets UM. And then we
Speaker 1: look at Asia. I mean, you know, I know a
Speaker 1: lot of people have have focused on the story in China,
Speaker 1: where you know, short term there are issues. Longer term,
Speaker 1: you will not see faster growth, you will not see
Speaker 1: faster UH consumer spending power explosion that we will see
Speaker 1: in in Asia over the next three to five years.
Speaker 1: And so therefore we are very focused on the Asian
Speaker 1: markets where we see a lot of growth and a
Speaker 1: lot of intraregional trade that is going to take place,
Speaker 1: where where that growth is going to continue to build
Speaker 1: on itself within the region. So those are the two
Speaker 1: areas with your voting member of the Global Investment Committee
Speaker 1: to HSBC and on the subcommittee for f X and
Speaker 1: UH and currencies, what do you think about the dollar?
Speaker 1: We've seen some strength recently. Does that hold into two Yeah,
Speaker 1: we think it does because if you look at relative
Speaker 1: growth rates, and most importantly, Matt is is the relative
Speaker 1: interest rate story. Right, it's one of the reasons where
Speaker 1: we think that the story on the tenure has been uh,
Speaker 1: you know, sort of a bit exaggerated in the markets.
Speaker 1: We don't see the ten year backing up any great
Speaker 1: degree because there's there's a couple of major factors. Are
Speaker 1: number one, inflation should slow next year. Number two is
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a lower deficit than we did the
Speaker 1: year before, which means you have less issuance. And with
Speaker 1: good demand and less issuance, you should have the U
Speaker 1: S treasury markets should remain very well bid. And as
Speaker 1: a result, we see that upper constraint on long term
Speaker 1: rates uh And and therefore we see some strength in
Speaker 1: the dollar, you know, absolutely not tremendous strym, but but
Speaker 1: range bound. Where we see some concerns in the in
Speaker 1: the fixing in the FX markets rather is in some
Speaker 1: in some markets in the emerging market space, where you've
Speaker 1: got some inflationary stories that are far more um long
Speaker 1: term than than they will be in the developed world. Um.
Speaker 1: And that is a concern. And the and the FX
Speaker 1: markets will continue to serve as a corps as it were.
Speaker 1: I was I wonderful to catch up with USA as always,
Speaker 1: and I hope you and the family to enjoy the
Speaker 1: Christmas holidays. Rasco there of HSBC, one of the most
Speaker 1: important policy decisions at the moment is to try and
Speaker 1: decide how short the isolation period should be. After starting
Speaker 1: with this pandemic in and around fourteen days, shortening to
Speaker 1: ten doesn't need to come down to five. Lauren Sanwa
Speaker 1: joined US now a social professor at the University of
Speaker 1: Nebraska Medical Center. Lauren, let's start there if we can
Speaker 1: just how much data you still need to make a
Speaker 1: decision like that on whether we should come down from
Speaker 1: ten days to something like five. Yeah. I think that
Speaker 1: one of the big pieces of data that we're continuing
Speaker 1: to wait for UM and that people are actively collecting,
Speaker 1: is that that initial space between exposure and when you
Speaker 1: start to be symptomatic and so UM. One of the
Speaker 1: challenges is that in the US are sequencing was delayed.
Speaker 1: So while we've made lots of gains in that space
Speaker 1: since this pandemic begun, we had sort of gotten complacent
Speaker 1: and we had stopped sequencing everything to understand when these
Speaker 1: new variants came out, So we're catching up on the data,
Speaker 1: UM and comparing that those data to delta to other strains.
Speaker 1: And I mean, I think that this is a big focus,
Speaker 1: especially considering our frontline workers need support, They need a
Speaker 1: deeper bent right now. So looking at how long it
Speaker 1: takes for people to become infectious and how long they
Speaker 1: stay infectious for is absolutely a number one priority of
Speaker 1: our science to us right now. Well, and Lauren, obviously
Speaker 1: that answer may be different depending on the subject in
Speaker 1: question is vaccinated or unvaccinated. And I'm wondering too as
Speaker 1: we talk about you know, all of these symptoms appear
Speaker 1: to be more mild at least that's what the data
Speaker 1: has suggested early on. How is that different depending on
Speaker 1: if a person actually has gotten their shots. Yeah, we
Speaker 1: are seeing milder disease in people who have been vaccinated. UM.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of work being done to understand how
Speaker 1: vaccine efficacy is specific to oh macron um, is it waning?
Speaker 1: Are we going to need additional boosters? Um? And but
Speaker 1: what we are seeing is that there is more severe
Speaker 1: disease in people who are unvaccinated, and so UM, the
Speaker 1: people who are in the hospital are primarily unvaccinated people.
Speaker 1: There are going to be some breakthrough cases, that is inevitable.
Speaker 1: But the people who are by far and large getting
Speaker 1: severely ill from this disease and this variant um even
Speaker 1: though this variant seems to be less um severe overall
Speaker 1: all are people who are unvaccinated. And we are seeing
Speaker 1: a spike in pediatric cases and and many of that
Speaker 1: many of those are because um, you know, we're catching
Speaker 1: up with children being vaccinated because they were they had
Speaker 1: access to the vaccine. Later, kids under five still don't
Speaker 1: have access to the vaccine. As we work on the
Speaker 1: you know, we're finding that study. FISER is doing a
Speaker 1: ton of work right now to refine um that study,
Speaker 1: looking at improving and boosting the immunity of their findings. Well,
Speaker 1: speaking of FISER, it's not just their COVID nineteen vaccine
Speaker 1: that is at play now. They also have the therapy
Speaker 1: packs loved Merks covid pill was approved last week as well.
Speaker 1: How much of that can make a difference having those
Speaker 1: therapies available when we talk about hospitals, you know, potentially
Speaker 1: being overrun with patients. Yeah, any additional tool we have
Speaker 1: in our toolkit right now makes a difference. And these
Speaker 1: therapies are great because they don't have to be given
Speaker 1: in a hospital setting. Um. So this is where telemedicine
Speaker 1: comes into play. Um. You know, we're we've even explored
Speaker 1: strategies of of providers who are uarantining who can't actually
Speaker 1: be in the hospital but are well enough to work
Speaker 1: to be able to run COVID clinics and things like that. So, um, staffing,
Speaker 1: you know, the approach to staffing is very creative, and
Speaker 1: this gives us an additional space to provide COVID care
Speaker 1: for people who do not necessarily need to be hospitalized.
Speaker 1: And that's huge. And if and if we can get
Speaker 1: medicines like this two people early in their in their
Speaker 1: clinical course, we can keep them out of the hospital,
Speaker 1: which is better for everybody. Hey doctor, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I think the prevailing thought on Wall Street and in
Speaker 1: markets is that this is a pandemic that is becoming endemic.
Speaker 1: It's not that big of a deal anymore, with the
Speaker 1: exception of you know, the ten day period that's causing
Speaker 1: canceled flights and holding up the economy. Is that the
Speaker 1: case or are we still seeing real problems with hospitals
Speaker 1: overcrowded with emergency help being called in. Are we still
Speaker 1: in the midst of a real disaster. Yeah, I definitely
Speaker 1: think endemicity is the future, and the policies will have
Speaker 1: to adjust when that happens. But right now, what we're
Speaker 1: seeing is people who are being hospitalized. Even with this
Speaker 1: mild or potentially mild or variant, there's so many people
Speaker 1: getting sick and so many people still unvaccinated that hospitalized.
Speaker 1: Hospitalized patients are coming in, patients are coming into the
Speaker 1: hospital and droves, and the hospitals are overwhelmed. So UM,
Speaker 1: you know, I think we will get to a place
Speaker 1: where this looks more like flu or looks more like
Speaker 1: our seasonal respiratory viruses. But right now, this is still
Speaker 1: a pandemic. This is still causing severe disease. It's causing
Speaker 1: severe strain on hospitals and healthcare workers. UM. Frontline workers
Speaker 1: outside of the hospital, across the globe are being severely impacted. UM.
Speaker 1: And you know, we're looking to get through the holidays.
Speaker 1: We're looking to get through UM these times where people
Speaker 1: are going out, they're going to parties, they're celebrating, and
Speaker 1: we understand that, but UM, we're definitely not out of
Speaker 1: this pandemic yet, and so for vaccinated people we will
Speaker 1: start to approach, you know, some semblance of normal life,
Speaker 1: I hope this year. But for unvaccinated people there's still
Speaker 1: real risk out there. Um and this is still very dangerous.
Speaker 1: Virus doctor. Always fantastic to hey from you. We wish
Speaker 1: you the best as we come into a new years.
Speaker 1: Sat at the University of Nebraska. This is the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from
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Speaker 1: Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg