1
00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along

2
00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,080
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Leye. We bring

3
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:17,159
Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

4
00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:23,360
Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg

5
00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:30,240
Speaker 1: dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. Johnny

6
00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:32,360
Speaker 1: is now in place the Saince Victoria Ferinande's chief market

7
00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,160
Speaker 1: strategistic cross Mark Global Investments. Victoria, is this a case

8
00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:38,760
Speaker 1: of Tommy, why should hike in March? Or if we's changed,

9
00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:41,400
Speaker 1: is it a case of Timmy, why shouldn't hike in March?

10
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 1: I still think it's tell me why we should, and

11
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:46,839
Speaker 1: I think that's what the FETE is betting on at

12
00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,080
Speaker 1: this point in time. I know everyone is saying March

13
00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:51,760
Speaker 1: is a live meeting. They're anticipating they're going to see

14
00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,680
Speaker 1: that first rate hike in March. I'm not so sure.

15
00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 1: When we sit around our investment table across Mark, we're

16
00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:59,360
Speaker 1: thinking it's going to be maybe a little bit later.

17
00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,160
Speaker 1: We're still looking at June for that first rate hike,

18
00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,759
Speaker 1: and I think the FED is hoping that we're gonna

19
00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:08,320
Speaker 1: see inflation hit the peak levels in the first quarter

20
00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,800
Speaker 1: of the year, and then because of base effects and

21
00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,720
Speaker 1: the difference that we see from a year ago numbers,

22
00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,679
Speaker 1: hopefully we'll have supply chain issues being a little bit better,

23
00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,360
Speaker 1: so goods inflation comes back down. If the job openings

24
00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,479
Speaker 1: continue to be um steady and people keep coming back

25
00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,120
Speaker 1: to the labor market, perhaps wages come back a little bit,

26
00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,280
Speaker 1: and so inflation will start to decrease a little bit

27
00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:31,200
Speaker 1: on that year over year number and give them some

28
00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:34,400
Speaker 1: room to wait until June. So I think my betting

29
00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:38,000
Speaker 1: is still on June, but futures are showing March is

30
00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,880
Speaker 1: a live meeting, Victoria. How do your assumptions there that

31
00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,440
Speaker 1: you're making about federal reserve policy then translates into the

32
00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:48,080
Speaker 1: assumptions you are making about this bond market. Yeah, so,

33
00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,040
Speaker 1: you know, you look at where the bond market has

34
00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,040
Speaker 1: been pricing things, and you guys have been talking about

35
00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:53,880
Speaker 1: it this morning, and I really think the long end

36
00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,160
Speaker 1: of the curve has been under priced for quite some time.

37
00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,600
Speaker 1: You were talking about people's projections. We were looking to

38
00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,600
Speaker 1: be around that March hive around one seventy five on

39
00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:05,400
Speaker 1: the US tenure by the end of this year, and

40
00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 1: I don't think with the week to go we're gonna

41
00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,560
Speaker 1: hit that. Possibly we hit the one fifty level and

42
00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:11,920
Speaker 1: maybe go a little bit above there. But I think

43
00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:13,960
Speaker 1: growth is going to be a little bit better than

44
00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,600
Speaker 1: people anticipate in the first quarter because we're gonna have

45
00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:20,680
Speaker 1: strong earnings. Yes, evaluations may come down some, but I

46
00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,360
Speaker 1: think we'll have strong earnings. I think we'll have good growth.

47
00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:26,160
Speaker 1: I think we'll start to see inflation pressures ease a

48
00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,839
Speaker 1: little bit and that's going to allow the longer into

49
00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:30,760
Speaker 1: the curve to go and maybe steep in the curve

50
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,200
Speaker 1: a little bit. This is such a flat curve for

51
00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:35,800
Speaker 1: the Fed to start hiking. I think they want to

52
00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,880
Speaker 1: see that steepness a little bit, and perhaps we get

53
00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,640
Speaker 1: a small amount of that in the first quarter. What

54
00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,000
Speaker 1: what is holding the tenier yield down? Victori? I mean,

55
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,360
Speaker 1: who's buying this paper? Um As we talk about the

56
00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,760
Speaker 1: possibility of two or even three rate hikes next year.

57
00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:53,919
Speaker 1: You know, Matt, I have this exact conversation with the

58
00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,679
Speaker 1: client on Thursday, and you know, why is the bond

59
00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,320
Speaker 1: market staying where it is? And we can talk about

60
00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,320
Speaker 1: there's unserve t there's flight to quality. I think a

61
00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,080
Speaker 1: lot of it, though, is you look at sovereign debt

62
00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:08,320
Speaker 1: around the world. We have such low levels still, and

63
00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,280
Speaker 1: I think that that's pulling down some of what we're

64
00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:13,680
Speaker 1: seeing in the US. I don't think it's all just

65
00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,280
Speaker 1: US centric as to why rates are so low Comparatively

66
00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,320
Speaker 1: around the world. We have people still coming in because

67
00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,160
Speaker 1: relatively the yields are higher, but I think we have

68
00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,760
Speaker 1: lower yields globally holding us down. You have some uncertainty

69
00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,760
Speaker 1: still with the Omicron variant out there, even though we

70
00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 1: think the effects are less than what we've seen in

71
00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,280
Speaker 1: previous variants. But I still think you have that uncertainty

72
00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:38,880
Speaker 1: and questioning what the FED is going to do that

73
00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,760
Speaker 1: is holding yields back a little bit. At this point, Victoria,

74
00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,200
Speaker 1: there is this belief that if you have higher interest

75
00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,120
Speaker 1: rates the start of a right hiking cycle, the financial

76
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,680
Speaker 1: conditions have to tighten, the equity markets have to fall.

77
00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,800
Speaker 1: I can think of several experiences in recent financial market

78
00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,240
Speaker 1: history where quite the opposite has happened. I can think

79
00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,040
Speaker 1: of the tightening experience going into oh seven, where equity

80
00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,320
Speaker 1: markets continued alleying really aggressively even as rate hikes started

81
00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,160
Speaker 1: to come through quite quickly. Can you envision a similar

82
00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,600
Speaker 1: scenario taking place this time around? I just see deeply

83
00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,160
Speaker 1: negative real interest rates and think how much work does

84
00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:14,720
Speaker 1: the FED need to do to actually tighten financial conditions. Yeah.

85
00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,000
Speaker 1: You know, historically, when we look at what goes on

86
00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,000
Speaker 1: in a rate hiking cycle, throughout the tapering and even

87
00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,599
Speaker 1: through the first rate hike, you continue to see equity

88
00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,760
Speaker 1: markets rally, and we don't really see the equity markets

89
00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,520
Speaker 1: take a hit until maybe that second of that third

90
00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:31,680
Speaker 1: rate hike. Again, if we're looking at June as a

91
00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,320
Speaker 1: first rate hike, even if we say it's March, you're

92
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,960
Speaker 1: looking at the second half of this year before it

93
00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,920
Speaker 1: starts to affect equity markets. And yes, we have these

94
00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,800
Speaker 1: really low real interest rates and it's gonna take us

95
00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,040
Speaker 1: a while to get those up. So you have low

96
00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:49,200
Speaker 1: rates for the equity market that will help valuations for

97
00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:50,880
Speaker 1: a while, even though I think they start to come

98
00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,440
Speaker 1: down a little bit from current um levels of where

99
00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,000
Speaker 1: they are on the valuation side, but I still still

100
00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,520
Speaker 1: think you have strong support for the equity market at

101
00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,520
Speaker 1: least in the first quarter, possibly the first half of

102
00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:03,480
Speaker 1: next year. Then I think we start to have a

103
00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:06,080
Speaker 1: little bit more concern and see sideways growth for the

104
00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,520
Speaker 1: equity market instead of continually trending higher. And when we

105
00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,080
Speaker 1: get a little bit more specific within equities, Victoria, where

106
00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:13,880
Speaker 1: do you want to be putting your money? And why

107
00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:17,279
Speaker 1: do you like the banks here? With the curve this flat? Yeah?

108
00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,160
Speaker 1: So Kaylee. When we look at the equity market, I mean,

109
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,800
Speaker 1: let's look at the SMP five hundred. At the end

110
00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,839
Speaker 1: of last year, you had over of the SMP above

111
00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,520
Speaker 1: it's two D day moving average. That's come down. Now

112
00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,839
Speaker 1: we're rarely around sixty six of the SMP above that level,

113
00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:34,960
Speaker 1: So I think you have to start really picking your

114
00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,839
Speaker 1: names carefully when we look at them. The outlook for

115
00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:42,280
Speaker 1: next year. Financials have been hit quite hard, but yet

116
00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,040
Speaker 1: there's still in an uptrend. There's still some momentum there,

117
00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,440
Speaker 1: so we think it's a great time to go in UM.

118
00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,960
Speaker 1: I think they have stronger balance sheets than they've had before,

119
00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,599
Speaker 1: there's upside potential for dividends next year, their cheap to

120
00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:56,240
Speaker 1: the market, and as we mentioned, we do think rates

121
00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,000
Speaker 1: are gonna go a little bit higher on the longer

122
00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,440
Speaker 1: end of the curve. So it looks like a place

123
00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,320
Speaker 1: and we want quality going into next year. So you

124
00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,240
Speaker 1: look at Bank America, JP Morgan. These are the two

125
00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,799
Speaker 1: names that we really focus on in that sector. Victoria,

126
00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,400
Speaker 1: thank the family for letting us borrow you for ten minutes.

127
00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,320
Speaker 1: We appreciate it. Victoria Fernandez that of cross Mark, thank

128
00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:22,440
Speaker 1: you very much, just jointing us now in place to say,

129
00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,760
Speaker 1: Mohammed Juanist the editor in chief of Gallup. Mohammed, great

130
00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:27,640
Speaker 1: time and to catch up with you, sir, looking ahead

131
00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:31,599
Speaker 1: to next year. The approval writing of leadership in this administration, Mohammed,

132
00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:33,960
Speaker 1: is it a simplest saying it's gone in one direction,

133
00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:38,240
Speaker 1: it's heading lower. It's kind of stuck right now. Um

134
00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:40,279
Speaker 1: and we don't know where it's going. But this team

135
00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:44,280
Speaker 1: started off with a really promising approval rating, especially on

136
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,680
Speaker 1: the pandemic. They were at six and ten Americans approving

137
00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,520
Speaker 1: of how they were handling it in late January early February.

138
00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:55,520
Speaker 1: But on every metric now the Biden team has really

139
00:06:55,839 --> 00:07:00,320
Speaker 1: crunched down to the low forties on foreign Paul see,

140
00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:04,159
Speaker 1: on the pandemic, on the economy. Um. Our latest number

141
00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,880
Speaker 1: is just overall approval of President Biden uh and and

142
00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,480
Speaker 1: how he does his job. And he's at right now,

143
00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:14,000
Speaker 1: since the fall of kabbal, which is seems like a

144
00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,960
Speaker 1: lifetime ago but was in September, we haven't really seen

145
00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 1: that number move at all. Uh. Congress is doing even

146
00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:24,960
Speaker 1: worse than the president right now approval of the job

147
00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:29,120
Speaker 1: that Congress is doing so um. You know, this administration

148
00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,840
Speaker 1: started with the America is Back the theme. When you

149
00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:36,200
Speaker 1: look at the partisanship challenges, it really does feel like

150
00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,880
Speaker 1: the same old America. UM. And this team is really

151
00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:43,239
Speaker 1: up against some very serious resistance in terms of trying

152
00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,840
Speaker 1: to find common ground because we don't see that in

153
00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,360
Speaker 1: the data. Well in Mohammed. That paints a pretty bleak

154
00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:52,120
Speaker 1: picture for the Democratic Party heading into the mid terms.

155
00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:54,320
Speaker 1: And when we talk about build back Better and that,

156
00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,000
Speaker 1: you know, being something crucial for them, is that actually

157
00:07:57,000 --> 00:07:59,640
Speaker 1: going to be enough to move the needle? Is it popular?

158
00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,640
Speaker 1: It's the popular support there for it, and you know,

159
00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:05,760
Speaker 1: it really depends on the spin around it. Um. It

160
00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,400
Speaker 1: was really ironic when you were talking about what's going

161
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:10,400
Speaker 1: to be left of build back if it gets past

162
00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:14,600
Speaker 1: I started to think of Obamacare and these massive legislative

163
00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,640
Speaker 1: acts that really are very different when they get past

164
00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:21,840
Speaker 1: that what was initially promised and envisioned um to the public.

165
00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,080
Speaker 1: But it's not just the Democrats. We see the Republicans

166
00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:30,640
Speaker 1: also really struggling to get approval from anyone beyond their

167
00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:35,640
Speaker 1: very basic ideological base. So Mitch McConnell, for example, the

168
00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:40,120
Speaker 1: Senate Republican leader, he's at thirty percent approval, sixty disapproval.

169
00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:45,440
Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi approval fifty percent disapproval. So it really goes

170
00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:49,200
Speaker 1: on both sides. Um, if you're not a Democrat, you

171
00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,560
Speaker 1: don't have a great feeling about democratic leadership. If you're

172
00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:58,000
Speaker 1: not a Republican, it's about the same. How big are

173
00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:02,000
Speaker 1: those ideological bases, moham it, and how much has that changed?

174
00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,880
Speaker 1: Are we looking at basically thirty on either side that

175
00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,120
Speaker 1: aren't going to change their opinion no matter what happens.

176
00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:11,720
Speaker 1: It's such a great question that, Matt, because that's what's

177
00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,560
Speaker 1: really changed in America. It's not thirty forty, it's really

178
00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:18,959
Speaker 1: about twenty on each side. America now has the highest

179
00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:23,000
Speaker 1: rate of people who identify as independence. So the general public,

180
00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:26,960
Speaker 1: if you will, us non politically minded people have really

181
00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:30,319
Speaker 1: plugged out and tuned out of the in fighting between

182
00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,960
Speaker 1: the two parties. Um. You mentioned the midterm election. It

183
00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,760
Speaker 1: is so critical that this is gonna be the first

184
00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:41,200
Speaker 1: mid term election since President Biden has taken office. Um.

185
00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:45,199
Speaker 1: The world is watching Ukraine and unfortunately American leadership is

186
00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:48,040
Speaker 1: gonna be watching the pit term election. UM. So a

187
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,640
Speaker 1: lot of the dynamics while the rhetoric has really changed

188
00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:54,960
Speaker 1: since the Trump administration, a lot of those partisan divides

189
00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:59,360
Speaker 1: really have gone nowhere. Unelected officials did much better in

190
00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,719
Speaker 1: our poll in December then elected officials, So there are

191
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,920
Speaker 1: some bright points, um, but when it comes to Congress

192
00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,800
Speaker 1: and the presidency, it's really a pretty ugly picture. By

193
00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,200
Speaker 1: the way, you mentioned on alleged officials. I wonder about

194
00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:17,320
Speaker 1: America's take on Anthony Fauci. Um. He seems to be

195
00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:22,439
Speaker 1: a very partisan figure. Do I have that wrong? No? UM.

196
00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,560
Speaker 1: It's interesting because Dr Fauci actually is one of the

197
00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:29,000
Speaker 1: leaders that did the best. UM. He got fifty approval

198
00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:34,520
Speaker 1: for seven disapproval, but when you look at it by party, UM,

199
00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,240
Speaker 1: only nine of Republicans approval of the job he's doing.

200
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:42,319
Speaker 1: The surprise to me, and as recovering attorney here was

201
00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:46,319
Speaker 1: Justice Roberts. Justice Roberts actually got the highest approval of

202
00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,200
Speaker 1: all the leaders we asked about he got a sixty

203
00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,880
Speaker 1: approval rating, and it's actually an improvement in the past

204
00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,439
Speaker 1: several poles that we've done of his own approval rating.

205
00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:58,440
Speaker 1: So it'll be really interesting to watch where that goes

206
00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,840
Speaker 1: as these really critical decisions, especially on abortion, come up

207
00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,760
Speaker 1: to the Court. But it is remarkable that in a

208
00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,560
Speaker 1: year where the Court is really trying to argue that

209
00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,520
Speaker 1: it's a political um, the leader of the Court actually

210
00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,000
Speaker 1: did better than most selected officials. Mohammed, what do you

211
00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,520
Speaker 1: think driving that for paper doo time followed Supreme Court

212
00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:17,559
Speaker 1: decisions or the process than closely? What do you think

213
00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:23,160
Speaker 1: driving that unexpected decisions? I would say, Um, Justice Roberts

214
00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,679
Speaker 1: has taken positions that if you were simply guessing on

215
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,480
Speaker 1: the party that appointed the justice, Um, he hasn't take

216
00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:33,760
Speaker 1: He hasn't taken the partisan line on every decision. Um.

217
00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:37,440
Speaker 1: But again, the Supreme Court is something that Americans don't

218
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,079
Speaker 1: pay a lot of attention to until there's a huge story,

219
00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:43,720
Speaker 1: and there's gonna be a massive story in two with

220
00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,400
Speaker 1: whether or not Roe v. Wade is upheld. So these

221
00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:49,360
Speaker 1: numbers are likely to change dramatically both for Justice Roberts

222
00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:51,800
Speaker 1: at perceptions of court Mohammed, looking forward to catching up

223
00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:53,679
Speaker 1: with you through next year to have God is through

224
00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,520
Speaker 1: some of those issues. Mahmat units that joining us from Gallophon.

225
00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,720
Speaker 1: Another person working today even though technically it's actually his

226
00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:06,760
Speaker 1: week off, so this is his only job to do

227
00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,480
Speaker 1: this morning is Jose Rasco, America's Chief investment Officer for

228
00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,640
Speaker 1: HSBC Private Banking and Wealth Management. Jose, thank you so

229
00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,120
Speaker 1: much for making time for us on a holiday week.

230
00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:17,680
Speaker 1: As we look through the last rating week of this

231
00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:21,920
Speaker 1: year on to primary question is where in the cycle

232
00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,480
Speaker 1: are we? Well, you know, Kayla, good morning to all

233
00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,120
Speaker 1: of you, first of all, and UH, happy holidays to everybody.

234
00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,000
Speaker 1: And clearly we think, you know, the the early part

235
00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,240
Speaker 1: of the cycle where we see the rapid growth is

236
00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,920
Speaker 1: behind us. We saw that peak in growth, UH and

237
00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,240
Speaker 1: economic growth and corporate profits growth in the second quarter

238
00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,960
Speaker 1: of last year, so we're more in a mid cycle phase.

239
00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:44,920
Speaker 1: Will keep in mind, you know, especially in the US,

240
00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,839
Speaker 1: as growth slows from let's call it, you know, round

241
00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,080
Speaker 1: up to six percent. If it's slows so like four

242
00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,560
Speaker 1: percent this year, that's still double the rate we historically

243
00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,000
Speaker 1: have seen for the U S economy, more than double

244
00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:58,480
Speaker 1: the rate in fact, so I think it's two is

245
00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,480
Speaker 1: a year of normalization from our perspective in terms of

246
00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:06,880
Speaker 1: fiscal policy, monetary policy, growth, and inflation. Well, and as

247
00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,000
Speaker 1: we think about those fiscal and monetary forces easing, that

248
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,440
Speaker 1: is of course what drove the accelerated early part of

249
00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:14,360
Speaker 1: the cycle. Does that also mean that the cycle is

250
00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:17,320
Speaker 1: going to come to an end much more quickly? No,

251
00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,360
Speaker 1: we don't think so. I think if you look at

252
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 1: the monetary policy, you and you just both debated that

253
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,400
Speaker 1: monetary policy is tightening to a degree. Uh. You know,

254
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,560
Speaker 1: if you think of you know, tapering, QUEI is really

255
00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:31,520
Speaker 1: not putting your foot on the brakes, it's really lifting

256
00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,160
Speaker 1: your foot off the accelerator. Uh. And we think the

257
00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:38,040
Speaker 1: FED has decided to let the the car move forward

258
00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,640
Speaker 1: at its own pace a little more. But but long

259
00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:44,400
Speaker 1: story short, that tightening that is just beginning. Uh. Even

260
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:46,960
Speaker 1: if the FED were to tighten three times next year

261
00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,800
Speaker 1: and two or three times in three, the real FED

262
00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:53,840
Speaker 1: funds are it's still remains quite you know, quite low

263
00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:56,240
Speaker 1: uh and and in fact negative. Right, even if you

264
00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:58,640
Speaker 1: get inflation slowing back toward a more normal rate of

265
00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:02,320
Speaker 1: you know, two to two and a half, how responsive

266
00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:04,320
Speaker 1: is this Fed going to be the market move Jose,

267
00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,200
Speaker 1: I mean, um, is there going to be a FED

268
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:11,080
Speaker 1: put still? Well, you raise an interesting point in the

269
00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,160
Speaker 1: sense that there are quite a few vacancies as you know,

270
00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,480
Speaker 1: so that is going to be somewhat you know, the

271
00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:20,000
Speaker 1: concern of the market is how doubbish will this FED become.

272
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,600
Speaker 1: We're not anticipating that they'll be too dubbish. We think

273
00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:25,560
Speaker 1: they will try to move with the market, but we

274
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,360
Speaker 1: don't think this is going to be a FED that

275
00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,880
Speaker 1: is going to move in advance or try to tighten

276
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,000
Speaker 1: to keep the market happy. Uh. And but if we

277
00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 1: think they'll be there to be supportive, So yeah, that

278
00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,480
Speaker 1: FED but you want to go at a FED put Yeah,

279
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,160
Speaker 1: it remains somewhat in play, and we think they will

280
00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,840
Speaker 1: be supportive next year of markets. Yeah, absolutely, Uh as

281
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,440
Speaker 1: they looking at the bigger picture, um, stepping out to

282
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,000
Speaker 1: the thirty five thousand foot view if you will, and

283
00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,560
Speaker 1: your job title as chief investment officer for private banking

284
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,880
Speaker 1: and Wealth Management. I was talking with Kaylee this morning

285
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,840
Speaker 1: about Nikolai Tang again, the head of the Norwegian UM

286
00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,720
Speaker 1: Sovereign Wealth Fund. He's concerned that returns are just going

287
00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,600
Speaker 1: to be lower in the next decade because of inflation,

288
00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:12,760
Speaker 1: because of central bank positioning. Um, he's got a one

289
00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,320
Speaker 1: point four trillion dollars invested in this market. I think

290
00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,480
Speaker 1: the biggest equity holder. Are you worried about lower returns

291
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:22,560
Speaker 1: going forward as well? Well, it depends on your perspective, right.

292
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:24,760
Speaker 1: If you're saying, will equity markets be lower than they

293
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,360
Speaker 1: were in probably yeah. I mean it's hard, you're gonna

294
00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:32,440
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a tough year to beat, right, So

295
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,520
Speaker 1: no question or equity returns will be down from there.

296
00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,600
Speaker 1: But one, we're sort of abnormal years in terms of

297
00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:44,400
Speaker 1: economic policy and and and financial market returns. Now, going forward,

298
00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:46,640
Speaker 1: if you look at next year, for example, you know

299
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:51,480
Speaker 1: the market is calling for eighteen percent growth in corporate profits. Um,

300
00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:53,880
Speaker 1: that looks pretty healthy from our perspective. And keep in

301
00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:55,200
Speaker 1: mind the one thing that I think a lot of

302
00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,040
Speaker 1: people are forgetting. While we are mid cycle, in a

303
00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,080
Speaker 1: more of a mid cycle or mature stage of the economy,

304
00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,600
Speaker 1: there are four other factors secular forces that are going

305
00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:08,000
Speaker 1: to be driving economic growth upward from our perspective. Number

306
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 1: one is inventory rebuild, which you've talked about the depletion

307
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,280
Speaker 1: of inventories this morning already and how that needs to

308
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,200
Speaker 1: be rebuilt on a global basis. Number two is the

309
00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,760
Speaker 1: infrastructure story, where we're seeing a lot of spending on

310
00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,800
Speaker 1: infrastructure globally. Number three is the tech revolution. Everybody seems

311
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,080
Speaker 1: to have forgotten that five G is just the beginning

312
00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:28,960
Speaker 1: of this technology revolution, which is gonna be a multi

313
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,120
Speaker 1: year rollout. And number four is the creation of you know,

314
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,520
Speaker 1: economy two point oh, the sustainable world that we're all

315
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 1: talking about is finally happening, not just environment environmental issues,

316
00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:44,600
Speaker 1: but socialist issues as well. Those four major super trends

317
00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:48,080
Speaker 1: promised to add to growth and productivity as we go forward.

318
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,360
Speaker 1: So um, it's easy to be negative, right, but I

319
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,040
Speaker 1: think if you look at those four secular trends, those

320
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 1: forbal factor in as well to the cyclical story. Alright,

321
00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 1: So looking at the world through that lens, Jose, where

322
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,120
Speaker 1: or do you want to put your money? Specifically? Well,

323
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,640
Speaker 1: our focus if you look at fixed income, our focus

324
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,600
Speaker 1: is looking at areas that provides some some better returns,

325
00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,040
Speaker 1: and we're looking at high yield and in certain parts

326
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,399
Speaker 1: of the world as well as emerging markets. If you

327
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,280
Speaker 1: look at the equity markets were more focused on the US,

328
00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,720
Speaker 1: where we see you know, stability of growth and earnings

329
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:22,600
Speaker 1: and even though it's going to be a choppy year

330
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,000
Speaker 1: because of the political cycle, but we think the US

331
00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,240
Speaker 1: will do very well this year with expectations of eighteen

332
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,159
Speaker 1: percent growth and earnings. That gives us a lot of

333
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,199
Speaker 1: upside potential for the equity markets UM. And then we

334
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,119
Speaker 1: look at Asia. I mean, you know, I know a

335
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,320
Speaker 1: lot of people have have focused on the story in China,

336
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,680
Speaker 1: where you know, short term there are issues. Longer term,

337
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 1: you will not see faster growth, you will not see

338
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 1: faster UH consumer spending power explosion that we will see

339
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,760
Speaker 1: in in Asia over the next three to five years.

340
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,320
Speaker 1: And so therefore we are very focused on the Asian

341
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:56,359
Speaker 1: markets where we see a lot of growth and a

342
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 1: lot of intraregional trade that is going to take place,

343
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 1: where where that growth is going to continue to build

344
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 1: on itself within the region. So those are the two

345
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:10,640
Speaker 1: areas with your voting member of the Global Investment Committee

346
00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 1: to HSBC and on the subcommittee for f X and

347
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 1: UH and currencies, what do you think about the dollar?

348
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 1: We've seen some strength recently. Does that hold into two Yeah,

349
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:24,680
Speaker 1: we think it does because if you look at relative

350
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,679
Speaker 1: growth rates, and most importantly, Matt is is the relative

351
00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,200
Speaker 1: interest rate story. Right, it's one of the reasons where

352
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 1: we think that the story on the tenure has been uh,

353
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 1: you know, sort of a bit exaggerated in the markets.

354
00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 1: We don't see the ten year backing up any great

355
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 1: degree because there's there's a couple of major factors. Are

356
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,359
Speaker 1: number one, inflation should slow next year. Number two is

357
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,439
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a lower deficit than we did the

358
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,479
Speaker 1: year before, which means you have less issuance. And with

359
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,119
Speaker 1: good demand and less issuance, you should have the U

360
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 1: S treasury markets should remain very well bid. And as

361
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 1: a result, we see that upper constraint on long term

362
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 1: rates uh And and therefore we see some strength in

363
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:05,520
Speaker 1: the dollar, you know, absolutely not tremendous strym, but but

364
00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,600
Speaker 1: range bound. Where we see some concerns in the in

365
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 1: the fixing in the FX markets rather is in some

366
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 1: in some markets in the emerging market space, where you've

367
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,160
Speaker 1: got some inflationary stories that are far more um long

368
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 1: term than than they will be in the developed world. Um.

369
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 1: And that is a concern. And the and the FX

370
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 1: markets will continue to serve as a corps as it were.

371
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 1: I was I wonderful to catch up with USA as always,

372
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 1: and I hope you and the family to enjoy the

373
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 1: Christmas holidays. Rasco there of HSBC, one of the most

374
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 1: important policy decisions at the moment is to try and

375
00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,840
Speaker 1: decide how short the isolation period should be. After starting

376
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 1: with this pandemic in and around fourteen days, shortening to

377
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 1: ten doesn't need to come down to five. Lauren Sanwa

378
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,800
Speaker 1: joined US now a social professor at the University of

379
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,360
Speaker 1: Nebraska Medical Center. Lauren, let's start there if we can

380
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,639
Speaker 1: just how much data you still need to make a

381
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 1: decision like that on whether we should come down from

382
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 1: ten days to something like five. Yeah. I think that

383
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 1: one of the big pieces of data that we're continuing

384
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 1: to wait for UM and that people are actively collecting,

385
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 1: is that that initial space between exposure and when you

386
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,399
Speaker 1: start to be symptomatic and so UM. One of the

387
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 1: challenges is that in the US are sequencing was delayed.

388
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 1: So while we've made lots of gains in that space

389
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:30,160
Speaker 1: since this pandemic begun, we had sort of gotten complacent

390
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 1: and we had stopped sequencing everything to understand when these

391
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: new variants came out, So we're catching up on the data,

392
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:42,400
Speaker 1: UM and comparing that those data to delta to other strains.

393
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:46,120
Speaker 1: And I mean, I think that this is a big focus,

394
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 1: especially considering our frontline workers need support, They need a

395
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 1: deeper bent right now. So looking at how long it

396
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 1: takes for people to become infectious and how long they

397
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: stay infectious for is absolutely a number one priority of

398
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 1: our science to us right now. Well, and Lauren, obviously

399
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 1: that answer may be different depending on the subject in

400
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 1: question is vaccinated or unvaccinated. And I'm wondering too as

401
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,919
Speaker 1: we talk about you know, all of these symptoms appear

402
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 1: to be more mild at least that's what the data

403
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 1: has suggested early on. How is that different depending on

404
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 1: if a person actually has gotten their shots. Yeah, we

405
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 1: are seeing milder disease in people who have been vaccinated. UM.

406
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,120
Speaker 1: There's a lot of work being done to understand how

407
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:32,440
Speaker 1: vaccine efficacy is specific to oh macron um, is it waning?

408
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 1: Are we going to need additional boosters? Um? And but

409
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:38,920
Speaker 1: what we are seeing is that there is more severe

410
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:43,119
Speaker 1: disease in people who are unvaccinated, and so UM, the

411
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: people who are in the hospital are primarily unvaccinated people.

412
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: There are going to be some breakthrough cases, that is inevitable.

413
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 1: But the people who are by far and large getting

414
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 1: severely ill from this disease and this variant um even

415
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 1: though this variant seems to be less um severe overall

416
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 1: all are people who are unvaccinated. And we are seeing

417
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: a spike in pediatric cases and and many of that

418
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 1: many of those are because um, you know, we're catching

419
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,239
Speaker 1: up with children being vaccinated because they were they had

420
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 1: access to the vaccine. Later, kids under five still don't

421
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 1: have access to the vaccine. As we work on the

422
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,679
Speaker 1: you know, we're finding that study. FISER is doing a

423
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,439
Speaker 1: ton of work right now to refine um that study,

424
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 1: looking at improving and boosting the immunity of their findings. Well,

425
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 1: speaking of FISER, it's not just their COVID nineteen vaccine

426
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 1: that is at play now. They also have the therapy

427
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 1: packs loved Merks covid pill was approved last week as well.

428
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 1: How much of that can make a difference having those

429
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 1: therapies available when we talk about hospitals, you know, potentially

430
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 1: being overrun with patients. Yeah, any additional tool we have

431
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 1: in our toolkit right now makes a difference. And these

432
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 1: therapies are great because they don't have to be given

433
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 1: in a hospital setting. Um. So this is where telemedicine

434
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,439
Speaker 1: comes into play. Um. You know, we're we've even explored

435
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 1: strategies of of providers who are uarantining who can't actually

436
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 1: be in the hospital but are well enough to work

437
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 1: to be able to run COVID clinics and things like that. So, um, staffing,

438
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 1: you know, the approach to staffing is very creative, and

439
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 1: this gives us an additional space to provide COVID care

440
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 1: for people who do not necessarily need to be hospitalized.

441
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 1: And that's huge. And if and if we can get

442
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 1: medicines like this two people early in their in their

443
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 1: clinical course, we can keep them out of the hospital,

444
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 1: which is better for everybody. Hey doctor, uh, you know,

445
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 1: I think the prevailing thought on Wall Street and in

446
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: markets is that this is a pandemic that is becoming endemic.

447
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 1: It's not that big of a deal anymore, with the

448
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,880
Speaker 1: exception of you know, the ten day period that's causing

449
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: canceled flights and holding up the economy. Is that the

450
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: case or are we still seeing real problems with hospitals

451
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 1: overcrowded with emergency help being called in. Are we still

452
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 1: in the midst of a real disaster. Yeah, I definitely

453
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: think endemicity is the future, and the policies will have

454
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 1: to adjust when that happens. But right now, what we're

455
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 1: seeing is people who are being hospitalized. Even with this

456
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 1: mild or potentially mild or variant, there's so many people

457
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 1: getting sick and so many people still unvaccinated that hospitalized.

458
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: Hospitalized patients are coming in, patients are coming into the

459
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 1: hospital and droves, and the hospitals are overwhelmed. So UM,

460
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: you know, I think we will get to a place

461
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 1: where this looks more like flu or looks more like

462
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 1: our seasonal respiratory viruses. But right now, this is still

463
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,679
Speaker 1: a pandemic. This is still causing severe disease. It's causing

464
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 1: severe strain on hospitals and healthcare workers. UM. Frontline workers

465
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 1: outside of the hospital, across the globe are being severely impacted. UM.

466
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 1: And you know, we're looking to get through the holidays.

467
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 1: We're looking to get through UM these times where people

468
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: are going out, they're going to parties, they're celebrating, and

469
00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 1: we understand that, but UM, we're definitely not out of

470
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 1: this pandemic yet, and so for vaccinated people we will

471
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 1: start to approach, you know, some semblance of normal life,

472
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 1: I hope this year. But for unvaccinated people there's still

473
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 1: real risk out there. Um and this is still very dangerous.

474
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: Virus doctor. Always fantastic to hey from you. We wish

475
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: you the best as we come into a new years.

476
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 1: Sat at the University of Nebraska. This is the Bloomberg

477
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from

478
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on

479
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am for

480
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

481
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:45,719
Speaker 1: And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,

482
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm

483
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 1: Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg