Speaker 1: Joining us now Julia Pollock, Bloomberg's Audio studios recruits far
Speaker 1: more important. This is the Bloomberg Savannahs Podcast. I'm Tim
Speaker 1: Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for
Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube.
Speaker 1: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the
Speaker 1: show weekday morning from seven to ten and the easter from.
Speaker 2: Our global headquarters in New York City.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else
Speaker 1: you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminals,
Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business.
Speaker 3: App hapecs orders today, we would have expected to see
Speaker 3: a much larger decline in business investment with such high rates.
Speaker 3: So the data that's coming in is pretty good, but
Speaker 3: it's spectacular compared to where people thought we'd be now
Speaker 3: a year ago. Over year ago and red started rising.
Speaker 4: So when you talk to your companies here, what's the
Speaker 4: challenge they have to attracting retaining talent here? Because I
Speaker 4: look at a Jolt's number that's still really high, and
Speaker 4: I'm like, I don't know all the Sweeney off Springs.
Speaker 4: They're all employed here. What are your employers that you
Speaker 4: talk to?
Speaker 1: Tell Paul, you're the only father east of the Mississippi
Speaker 1: River whose children are all employed gainfully.
Speaker 2: It's a domain set of one.
Speaker 3: Well, we have had twenty six months now of unemployment
Speaker 3: atten below four percent. That's the longest period since the sixties. Really,
Speaker 3: so this is still an incredibly tightly market. Employers thought
Speaker 3: things would get easier, They thought leverage would swing all
Speaker 3: the way back to employers. Hasn't really happened. They're still
Speaker 3: struggling out there, and they're still finding that our attention
Speaker 3: is fairly low. People are job hopping and finding better things.
Speaker 2: I get to me, and I could be wrong.
Speaker 1: There's so much hot era out there now about this
Speaker 1: new how you get a job?
Speaker 2: What do you see in the day to day grind
Speaker 2: and Zip recruiter?
Speaker 1: Like does a resume matterner anymore? Do you have to
Speaker 1: master all this digital You got someone here. I needed
Speaker 1: a change to be able to make more money and
Speaker 1: have a life.
Speaker 2: Outside my job.
Speaker 1: Who doesn't Zip recruiter helped me discover something better. I
Speaker 1: think our audience worldwide is fascinated by this new method.
Speaker 1: How's a method work within our economy, and.
Speaker 3: So for years, job search was centered around search right
Speaker 3: people typing in a job title and finding the few
Speaker 3: jobs that were in their area. Now, with AI matching technology,
Speaker 3: people create a profile, they answer a couple of questions
Speaker 3: and say what they want and what they're interested in,
Speaker 3: and then a technology instantly alerts them to jobs that
Speaker 3: match their skills and experience and shows them jobs they
Speaker 3: wouldn't even have considered. And that is where the sort
Speaker 3: of exciting new discovery is taking place.
Speaker 2: I just wanted to be the bad boy for the
Speaker 2: Rochester Reds aim back then, ya back then? So what
Speaker 2: are the sectors?
Speaker 4: I mean, what are the sectors that are just really
Speaker 4: in dire need of just workers.
Speaker 3: So there are many sectors where the workforce is aging,
Speaker 3: where people are retiring in huge numbers, and where the
Speaker 3: talent pipeline is drinking. People are not enrolling in accounting anymore,
Speaker 3: They're not enrolling in the skilled trades in the kinds
Speaker 3: of numbers. I have a whole theory on this, and
Speaker 3: so a lot of jobs are just seen as kind
Speaker 3: of old.
Speaker 1: Why Paul and I are asking, because we've survived this
Speaker 1: in school, what does the accounting industry do it's a
Speaker 1: broad statement, not the big four, but what do they
Speaker 1: do well?
Speaker 3: So, so companies like KPMG, you're saying, wow, we've got
Speaker 3: an image problem. Young smart people want to go into tech,
Speaker 3: they want to go into AI and do all these
Speaker 3: fun jobs.
Speaker 5: They don't want to pay accounts.
Speaker 3: They aft, So what is to pay?
Speaker 2: Is the paul. It's a tough job, but.
Speaker 3: The bigger issue is the perception that it's really hard
Speaker 3: and stressful. So the number one reason people give us
Speaker 3: for having quit a job is stress. People are increasingly
Speaker 3: young people especially are prioritizing work life balance, and so
Speaker 3: what KPMG and other companies that are strongly.
Speaker 2: Account are prioritizing work, like are you kidding me? An
Speaker 2: account what's an accountant make nowadays? Six fres dificult six
Speaker 2: figures and twenty you pop them one hundred and eighty.
Speaker 2: Nobody's worried about stress.
Speaker 3: That's what companies that What industries that are very seasonal
Speaker 3: like accounting, are doing now is increasing staffing generally across
Speaker 3: the year, right, so that you don't have people who
Speaker 3: are mostly kind of idle for several months and then
Speaker 3: who have these massive rushes when they're working twenty four
Speaker 3: to seven. They're the companies are absorbing that seasonal risk
Speaker 3: and kind of overstaffing during during parts of the year
Speaker 3: and then giving people an easier time.
Speaker 4: I'm jerk, taxis, how does this back to home thing?
Speaker 4: How is it playing out here? We're four or five
Speaker 4: years into it here? How do you think it's How
Speaker 4: is it shaking out? And we still have more room
Speaker 4: to go in terms of that shacking.
Speaker 3: Out, Very very resilient. Remote work is just about stabilized
Speaker 3: in job hostings now at around eleven percent. There's still
Speaker 3: a huge mismatch though, between demand for remote work and
Speaker 3: remoters at hybrid remote and hybrid okay hybrid, sixty five
Speaker 3: percent of job seekers say they would prefer to find
Speaker 3: a remote or hybrid job. So there's huge.
Speaker 5: Demand for remote work.
Speaker 3: We know eleven percent of the people who just quit
Speaker 3: jobs are looking for remote work, and that's why they quit.
Speaker 2: One final question is just so so important. You got
Speaker 2: to come back.
Speaker 1: Where's she She's like West Coast, right, She's like working
Speaker 1: like a twenty hour day going down to Santa.
Speaker 2: Monica surfing, surfing and all that.
Speaker 1: The absolute thing I hear from everybody older, is that
Speaker 1: young kids won't work.
Speaker 2: Is that true?
Speaker 3: What do you see at ZIP recruiter, Well, prime age
Speaker 3: labor force precipation is the highest it's been since two
Speaker 3: thousand and one, right, so it's it's it's not exactly true,
Speaker 3: but yes, there is a bit more priority placed on
Speaker 3: work life balance and companies are having to improve and
Speaker 3: that pandemic.
Speaker 4: I think part of that's a pandemic. A lot of
Speaker 4: people just said, man, life is short.
Speaker 2: I need to read. I strongly agree.
Speaker 4: I think that is.
Speaker 2: And I don't know.
Speaker 4: I think that's here for a while.
Speaker 2: Don't be a strange.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 2: And we would love to come out to La to
Speaker 2: have you and you. We could do it.
Speaker 1: We could, we could do it right by the pool
Speaker 1: of the Sunset Tower Hotel. Nobody's there at seven, it's
Speaker 1: three or four. We got Julie over there for early
Speaker 1: morning cockcaills. Julia Pollock, thank you so much for Zipper.
Speaker 2: This was fascinating joining us. Now. This is the interview.
Speaker 1: Of the day with good perspective on the frenzy of
Speaker 1: the moment. Paul, I'm embarrassed to say this, but I
Speaker 1: got to rip up the script short with bitdog at
Speaker 1: fifty six thousand with liz Anne Saunders at Charles Schwabs.
Speaker 1: She and I are on the same page on this. Lizanne,
Speaker 1: you know you've done fiscal advice to our government. You've
Speaker 1: been involved in new administrations and giving them counsel on.
Speaker 2: How to be responsible. As a five you were like seventeen,
Speaker 2: I remember twenty years ago.
Speaker 1: But liz Anne, did Gary Gensler screw this up? How
Speaker 1: do you feel about the SEC green lighting bitcoin within
Speaker 1: our retirement plans?
Speaker 6: Well, there's there's always caution around this, and as you know,
Speaker 6: Tom don't we don't offer it. We do provide the
Speaker 6: opportunity for some of the you know, ETF vehicles to
Speaker 6: be purchase a soul, but it's always with a wrapper
Speaker 6: around about under standing the risk associated with this. It's
Speaker 6: not a currency. It doesn't really provide and has it
Speaker 6: provided an inflation hedge per se, and that you have
Speaker 6: to treat it like a very speculative trade or investment
Speaker 6: in your portfolio. But you know, beyond that, we we
Speaker 6: can't control what all of our investors want to do.
Speaker 6: But I'm a skeptic and I am just on crypto
Speaker 6: in general.
Speaker 1: Paul, I'm going to get in trouble here. But I'm
Speaker 1: upset every time I go to the Bloomberg and do
Speaker 1: the symbol for bitcoin that we have, which is xbt
Speaker 1: x ray void Tom, and I have to hit the
Speaker 1: famous yellow currency button.
Speaker 2: Yes, you do next, it's not I don't care where
Speaker 2: they put it. Yeah, but it's not.
Speaker 1: I think it's more like an equity almost. But continue,
Speaker 1: I just will talk.
Speaker 2: Lizanne's right.
Speaker 4: I know a guy of six floor we can talk
Speaker 4: to about that work on the Hey, listen.
Speaker 6: It's become very correlated to indexes like the Nasdaq one hundred,
Speaker 6: So I think you're absolutely right.
Speaker 4: Hey, Lizene, we're just kind of through the earning season here,
Speaker 4: a couple more of the retailers left to come here.
Speaker 4: What's your takeaway?
Speaker 6: Maybe yet again, but to a more significant degree. You
Speaker 6: saw analysts forced to lower the bar to a more
Speaker 6: significant degree than was actually necessary, and as a result,
Speaker 6: you've had almost a perfect round trip. If you go
Speaker 6: back to October of last year, the expectation was about
Speaker 6: eleven percent earn its growth for the fourth quarter. You
Speaker 6: started the reporting season down sub two percent, but then
Speaker 6: you've seen analysts have to ratchet things back up and
Speaker 6: last I looked yesterday or Friday, it was back up
Speaker 6: in the ten percent and change now. In fairness, though,
Speaker 6: because of the way base effects work, that increase that
Speaker 6: we're now seeing in Q four twenty twenty three, because
Speaker 6: the bar gets set too low, You've seen analysts have
Speaker 6: to ratchet down estimates for Q four twenty twenty four
Speaker 6: because the year over years is not going to be
Speaker 6: robust because you got that bigger pop in Q three.
Speaker 6: But I think analysts have been admittedly flying a little
Speaker 6: more blind in this environment called the pandemic era, where
Speaker 6: even though there's fewer companies that are not providing guidance
Speaker 6: at all, the guidance is just not quite as maybe
Speaker 6: it was never precise, but it's a little the guidance
Speaker 6: is a little more loosey goosey right now, leaving analysts
Speaker 6: to have to kind of finagle things on their own
Speaker 6: and also not adjust earnings too far out.
Speaker 4: So one of the things Luzan as people try to
Speaker 4: get a handle on those earnings is we need to
Speaker 4: see a broadening out of this market. We saw a
Speaker 4: little bit of a November December last year, but it
Speaker 4: still feels like this market may be a little too
Speaker 4: thin in terms of maybe the magnificent seven or five
Speaker 4: or however many are left are kind of really driving
Speaker 4: the performance here, and a lot of folks say that
Speaker 4: makes them nervous. How do you think about it?
Speaker 6: So I do think there's still is risk associated with
Speaker 6: the concentration, but it's nowhere near as cute as it
Speaker 6: was last year. To your point that we've had to
Speaker 6: start whittling down from the magnificent seven to the sensational
Speaker 6: six to the fabulous five, because we've seen that move
Speaker 6: from in the case of Tesla, just out of the
Speaker 6: seven in terms of the largest seven stocks recently dropped
Speaker 6: down to number ten. And you've had stocks outside of
Speaker 6: the sort of techy world like Brickshire Hathaway, like Eli,
Speaker 6: Lilly leapfrog Tesla. But I think what's happening and you
Speaker 6: don't pick it up necessarily by traditional breath statistics or
Speaker 6: just looking at the MAGS seven is there's more churn
Speaker 6: under the surface. So the Nasdaq Index overall, at the
Speaker 6: index level, the maximum draw down this year from a
Speaker 6: year to date high is only three percent, But the
Speaker 6: average member maximum draw down again year to date from
Speaker 6: a year to date high within the Nasdaq is negative
Speaker 6: twenty two percent, so there's a lot more churn going
Speaker 6: on under the surface. And I think in this kind
Speaker 6: of market environment, to get the true story, the narrative
Speaker 6: that the market is telling, you have got to leave
Speaker 6: aside just index level analysis.
Speaker 1: Lizanne four equity types in a room, you're going to
Speaker 1: get seventeen answers.
Speaker 2: On a rebalance.
Speaker 1: What is the liz Ane Saunders formula.
Speaker 6: For REBOUNDCE So I think to the extent investors can
Speaker 6: do it based on the implications of turnover, tax bracket,
Speaker 6: et cetera. I think portfolio based rebalancing versus calendar based rebalancing.
Speaker 6: Letting actual moves in your portfolio, whether it's at the
Speaker 6: individual stock level or some group like the Magnificent seven,
Speaker 6: or at the sector asset class level. Let the moves
Speaker 6: up and down as a share of your portfolio, dictate
Speaker 6: the timing associated with rebalancing, versus say, what the mutual
Speaker 6: fund complex does, which is last quarter, I mean last
Speaker 6: week of every quarter. It's very calendar based, and I
Speaker 6: think that's just a beneficial way for individual investors to
Speaker 6: stay in gear not have to make all or nothing decisions.
Speaker 6: And as I always say, do a version of BI
Speaker 6: low cell high, which is you know, at low trim high.
Speaker 6: I suppose boring to talk about. I love when you
Speaker 6: guys ask me about that, but for the most part,
Speaker 6: it's not maybe what it's not the bomb bass that
Speaker 6: is more intriguing to people, but it's actually what matters.
Speaker 4: Hey, Liz, and thinking about this market here, a lot
Speaker 4: of folks are saying, yeah, earnings are fine, but we've
Speaker 4: got to focus on what the Fed's going to do.
Speaker 4: And I'm an old self side I don'tlyt so earnings
Speaker 4: still matter to me, but we can't escape that this
Speaker 4: FED is really a key driver of this marketplace. What
Speaker 4: do you expect our freeder reserve to do this year?
Speaker 6: Well, as you guys know, we've talked about this a
Speaker 6: lot on this program and on TV in advance of
Speaker 6: the better than expected job most recent job support, the
Speaker 6: hotter than expected CPI report. We were not in the
Speaker 6: March camp, felt that that was just too aggressive an assumption,
Speaker 6: not to mention the six to seven cuts priced in
Speaker 6: at that point, and that's now shifted to an outlook
Speaker 6: that's a little more in line with the fed's dots,
Speaker 6: but I think it's still too soon to tell the
Speaker 6: FED is data dependent. I think this is a FED
Speaker 6: that took the elevator up, the opposite of what they
Speaker 6: normally do, which is take the escalator up. And I
Speaker 6: think they're going to take the sc later down in
Speaker 6: the interest of making sure that inflation has come down
Speaker 6: as staying there. The other really important thing, and this
Speaker 6: is what you need to watch for in all the
Speaker 6: upcoming inflation data reports is Powell's emphasis, not at the
Speaker 6: FOMC meeting or the presser, but in the sixty minutes
Speaker 6: interview when he somewhat suddenly mentioned the twelve month rate
Speaker 6: of change as being a key as opposed to the
Speaker 6: thick six month rate of change or the three month
Speaker 6: rate of change. That's another way of saying, we want
Speaker 6: to sort of elongate the analysis period to feel confident
Speaker 6: that inflation has come down and it's likely to stay down.
Speaker 1: Li'sand a little weight to the tape here of the
Speaker 1: magnificent whatever they are, a little saggy. Microsoft goes from
Speaker 1: a four to twelve over the last couple of days
Speaker 1: down to four oh seven right now, even in vidio
Speaker 1: breaking down a little bit, do you still model out
Speaker 1: it is completely normative to have a ten percent correction?
Speaker 1: Is that still part of the Saunders playbook?
Speaker 6: Sure, and a lot of people forget we had one.
Speaker 6: In the latter of last year, there was a ten
Speaker 6: percent correction in the S and P more for the
Speaker 6: NASDAC from the late July to late October ten year
Speaker 6: yield spike from subforida to up five. So it's incredible
Speaker 6: how short memories are, as if the most recent correction
Speaker 6: was way back in the twenty twenty covid era. And
Speaker 6: I think to some degree, not on a day to
Speaker 6: day basis or maybe week to week, but I think
Speaker 6: the bond market is to some degree still in the
Speaker 6: driver's seat for the equity market. And I think if
Speaker 6: we were to get an outsized move, especially tied to
Speaker 6: inflation on the upside and yields, I think that that
Speaker 6: would be to the detriment of the equity market.
Speaker 1: Lizanne Saunders, thank you so much. In honor of Lizanne,
Speaker 1: Tomorrow all of our music.
Speaker 2: Will be led Zeppelin. This is really cool.
Speaker 1: I mean, he was with Steve Cohen over to SEC
Speaker 1: and then Cohen bought the Mets.
Speaker 2: And Nicholes said forget it, see.
Speaker 1: You and you know this is a guy who writes
Speaker 1: a memo and it's read religiously on Wall Street because
Speaker 1: of his work, And like Mario Gibelly, I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: it back to there's something about being an auto securities
Speaker 1: analyst as Nick Colis was at First Boston a few
Speaker 1: years ago.
Speaker 2: Is just hugely read Data Trek.
Speaker 1: Again, we protect the copyright of all of our guests
Speaker 1: looked at Data Trek to get Nick Colis's brilliant work.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Temmy had a pretty good career on Wall Street.
Speaker 4: But here's a guy. It goes to Haverford College, great
Speaker 4: school outside of Philly. He majors in Near Eastern archaeology.
Speaker 4: Are you kidding me? If one of your offspring came
Speaker 4: to you, Thomason, I'm going to major near Yeah, let's
Speaker 4: go there.
Speaker 1: Right now, Nick Colis, how about that Near Eastern archaeology
Speaker 1: to get you through?
Speaker 2: But how did that work?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 5: Very very slowly, very slightly.
Speaker 4: But he made up for it by getting his MBA
Speaker 4: at the Chicago Hey, Nick, thanks so much for joining
Speaker 4: us here. Warren Buffett out with his annual letter. You
Speaker 4: know what he didn't even talk about once was AI.
Speaker 4: What do we read into that if Buffett doesn't care
Speaker 4: about AI. Is he missing something? Are we overplaying something?
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's fascinating.
Speaker 7: You're right. He didn't mention AI even once in his letter,
Speaker 7: which is one of the most widely read portfolio manager
Speaker 7: letters in the world.
Speaker 5: And I just take it as kind of Warren being Warren.
Speaker 7: He cares about fundamentals, and he cares about company management,
Speaker 7: and he cares about return of capital. AI is probably
Speaker 7: just a footnote for him.
Speaker 4: Are you concerned or to what level are you concerned?
Speaker 1: Nick?
Speaker 4: About? This is still a very concentrated market. There's not
Speaker 4: a lot of breadth that there, whether it's the Magnificent
Speaker 4: seven or five, or whether it's just a handful of
Speaker 4: names pushing this market higher. The technicians telling me that's
Speaker 4: not really a healthy market. How do you think about it?
Speaker 7: It's I totally take a point that it's probably not
Speaker 7: a healthy market, but it's the market that we have
Speaker 7: and to some degree at least forgetting some movement out
Speaker 7: of names besides tech. So Lily is helping healthcare, Berkshire
Speaker 7: is helping financials, and those are two groups that are
Speaker 7: performing here to date. So while we're having some amount
Speaker 7: of narrowness at least it's narrowness in some sectors, it's
Speaker 7: besides tech and tech adjacent. So I put that in
Speaker 7: the win column versus say last year, where it was
Speaker 7: really almost all tech for the first half of the year.
Speaker 4: So when you think about this market here, Nick, I mean,
Speaker 4: do we have to be smart on earnings? Do we
Speaker 4: have to be smart on the FED? I mean, I'm
Speaker 4: not even sure what's really driving this mark.
Speaker 1: That's the smartest question I've heard this month, Paul. The
Speaker 1: month's ending, the month's ending. I mean, this is really
Speaker 1: really important.
Speaker 2: Fos. Paul Sweening nails it.
Speaker 1: Nicholas, am I a FED watcher or a street watcher?
Speaker 7: I think you've got to be a street watcher. I
Speaker 7: think it is said to a first degree of magnitude.
Speaker 7: Rates don't really matter anymore. It comes down to what's
Speaker 7: the story, what's the theme. If it's tech, that it's AI,
Speaker 7: if it's outside of tech, that it's organic growth, So
Speaker 7: a lily for example, being for the best example. It
Speaker 7: comes down to stocks, It comes down to sectors. We've
Speaker 7: got three winning sectors year to date, financial, healthcare, and tech,
Speaker 7: and that's the way it's going to be most of
Speaker 7: the year. This is kind of a mid cycle market.
Speaker 7: This is a market where we're caring about growth, not Rachel.
Speaker 1: You a guy that I miss, miss miss each and
Speaker 1: every day. He was so kind to me, Clayton Christiensen
Speaker 1: in disruption. This morning, we're seeing disruption at Macy's, Nick
Speaker 1: coolis are we going to see a lot more disruption
Speaker 1: of the have nots of corporate enterprise in the next
Speaker 1: five years?
Speaker 7: Boy?
Speaker 5: I miss Christensen as well. It's a good point.
Speaker 7: And you know his thesis was that disruption happens in perpetuity.
Speaker 7: It happens every day in every way, and so I
Speaker 7: think it's the single most important theme in investing, frankly,
Speaker 7: not just day to day, in week to week, but
Speaker 7: year and year and decades a decade.
Speaker 4: So, Nick, if that is in fact the case in
Speaker 4: terms of disruption, is there any scenario where I'm not
Speaker 4: overweight tech? Just like forever?
Speaker 7: Our basic take on this has been, no, you have
Speaker 7: to be overweight tech and tech adjacent because tech is
Speaker 7: now about, you know, in four different sectors.
Speaker 5: But you do have to be long tech. And we
Speaker 5: actually done.
Speaker 7: Maths compared XLK to Berkshire Hathaway and XLK usually beats
Speaker 7: Berkshire Hathaway on any given rolling one year basis back
Speaker 7: for twenty thirty years. Innovation trumps everything, Technology trumps everything.
Speaker 7: It's been that way for forever. I don't think it'll change.
Speaker 1: Well, where are you? And Paul was mentioning you're work
Speaker 1: going back to First Boston.
Speaker 2: I look at AI A. I don't know what I'm
Speaker 2: talking about.
Speaker 1: I'm not qualified to opine, but Nick Collis, I look
Speaker 1: at it where, Okay, people are.
Speaker 2: Going to fail it AI, but there's got to be
Speaker 2: some winners out there. Is that how you look at it?
Speaker 7: I look at it kind of in this sort of
Speaker 7: cliched picks and shovels paradigm where you don't necessarily want
Speaker 7: to be the person going out to look for the gold.
Speaker 7: You want to be the person selling the picks and
Speaker 7: the shovels and the genes and sieves to the people
Speaker 7: who want to go out and search for the gold.
Speaker 7: And you know, that's why Nvidia is working so well,
Speaker 7: that's why other names like Amazon should work fine.
Speaker 4: So, Nick, you say that earnings for this market, what's
Speaker 4: your takeaway from this most recent earning season. We've just
Speaker 4: kind of just about to conclude here this week.
Speaker 7: Yeah, this was kind of a C minus earning season
Speaker 7: for me. It didn't really knock the cover off the ball.
Speaker 7: You had some big wins Facebook obviously, Meta, Nvidia obviously,
Speaker 7: but by and large, this was kind of a very
Speaker 7: mediocre fourth quarter and the market knew it would be,
Speaker 7: which is where we had that swoon last year. But
Speaker 7: I think we're fine the rest of the year. Earnings
Speaker 7: growth should pick up. But the current earning season was
Speaker 7: kind of a nothing for me.
Speaker 4: So what's the key driver for you through the mainit
Speaker 4: of the year. Is it going to be earnings? Do
Speaker 4: you need to see meaningful earnings growth in the back
Speaker 4: half of this year? Is there earnings risk in this market?
Speaker 7: There is some earnings risk versus expectations. I mean, we
Speaker 7: all know that analysts guests too high and then have
Speaker 7: to cut down. It was the case when I was
Speaker 7: doing the job in the nineteen nineties. It's still the
Speaker 7: case now. So earnings won't meet the streets current expectations,
Speaker 7: but there will be enough earnings leverage to give us
Speaker 7: four or five six seven percent earnings on say three
Speaker 7: percent revenue growth, and that's enough to keep the market going.
Speaker 7: The market's not just worried about this year. It's worried
Speaker 7: about showing Ordnie's leverage for the next two, three, four,
Speaker 7: five years, and we should get that extra recession. This
Speaker 7: year just has to show that it has some growth.
Speaker 1: Nick, we'red fifty one hundred rounded up. I mean, do
Speaker 1: you have an XPX target out one year, two years?
Speaker 1: Are you doing an ed yard any of the Roaring twenties?
Speaker 7: No, but I do understand that there is a I
Speaker 7: do think that there.
Speaker 5: Is a very strong tail into this market.
Speaker 7: I don't have a nartificial price target, but I'm totally
Speaker 7: comfortable telling clients belong Us Equities here.
Speaker 2: Nichole is hugely valuable. Look at the front pages around
Speaker 2: the world. She called me up today, she said, I
Speaker 2: got twenty ideas. I said, keep slash it.
Speaker 8: All right, we're talking about the zembic effect. First of all,
Speaker 8: this is from the New York Times. They're saying a
Speaker 8: lot of those sele celebrities that kind of you know,
Speaker 8: posted about their curves and how they're you know, going
Speaker 8: through all these things, and a lot of fans. They
Speaker 8: gained a lot of fans. Well, now they have to
Speaker 8: explain how they dropped weight because some of them are
Speaker 8: on these weight loss drugs. So it's a back and forth.
Speaker 8: The fans are feeling betrayed about it. The social media influencers,
Speaker 8: they're struggling over well, how do I say this now?
Speaker 8: Because for so long I was talking about fat shaming
Speaker 8: and remember.
Speaker 2: Bostics walking by right now, Romaine and I are number
Speaker 2: our fans are not worried about losing our curves. I
Speaker 2: mean I know that right now, Paul, What do you
Speaker 2: think of.
Speaker 4: It's The effect is everywhere. I mean, you know a
Speaker 4: lot of people and unfortunately for a lot of folks
Speaker 4: who really need it, they can't get it right because
Speaker 4: some people, for.
Speaker 1: Me on this it's a diabetic drug, yes, correct, and
Speaker 1: if I have a serious insulin diabetic issue, I can't
Speaker 1: get my drug because somebody's trying to figure out correct rounds.
Speaker 8: Yeah, yep, that's and it's expensive, expensive scripts.
Speaker 4: They're writing the scripts and they're just not enough supply.
Speaker 4: So a lot of the pharma super manufacturers they're trying
Speaker 4: to ramp up supply, much like we did, you know,
Speaker 4: during the COVID and the vaccines.
Speaker 2: But it's just gonna take the time next.
Speaker 8: All right, Wall Street Journal that's where we going next.
Speaker 8: The number of private equity firms owned by women minorities, well,
Speaker 8: that's had a record raising capital the last year. It's
Speaker 8: starting to downfall, starting to starting to dwindle for their
Speaker 8: fundraising goals. This it was a report from investment firm
Speaker 8: Fairview Capital Partners. So they say that in group of
Speaker 8: firms are diverse fying groups, it's running into the toughest
Speaker 8: market conditions. So some of those sub segments. Here's who's
Speaker 8: seeing a decline. It's the number of funds being raised
Speaker 8: by Black Asian American women who owned firms last year,
Speaker 8: that's shrank for the first time. And then women minority
Speaker 8: own funds their overall have started to decrease their fundraising targets.
Speaker 8: And the reason they're saying their concern is because bringing
Speaker 8: diversity into venture, they're saying, is going to help you know,
Speaker 8: these overlook segments. So that's why this is a concern
Speaker 8: for them. But they're starting to fall off.
Speaker 6: Yeah, i'mazing.
Speaker 4: Just you know, as interest rates came moved higher, just
Speaker 4: became harder to raise capital for everyone, including you know,
Speaker 4: some of these minority groups. And so I guess it's
Speaker 4: not surprising from that perspective, but you know, you hear
Speaker 4: from the folks in the financial services industry. They're trying
Speaker 4: to be supportive of diversity across all across the industry.
Speaker 2: But it's tough. It always has been, quite.
Speaker 8: Frankly, most finely.
Speaker 2: All right, what else?
Speaker 7: Right?
Speaker 8: So we got some tech here Meta we have the
Speaker 8: first true augmented reality glasses could be unveiled this fall,
Speaker 8: just when you've got the vision pro right, Okay, this
Speaker 8: it's an internal project to referred to as Orion. It's
Speaker 8: different from metas they have the ray band smart glasses,
Speaker 8: it's different from It's not like what you're wearing Thomas
Speaker 8: got toes. These are a little bit thicker. They're different
Speaker 8: from the Quest headsets too. So they're kind of going
Speaker 8: back to the whole Meta thing. It seems like it's
Speaker 8: been in the work for so years under their Meta's
Speaker 8: Reality Labs division. No word on the cost of it,
Speaker 8: but you know this is from Business Insider. They're saying
Speaker 8: it's going to be unveiled during their annual Connect conference
Speaker 8: that comes out this fall, so we'll see.
Speaker 1: No.
Speaker 4: I mean, the stock has worked, The stock has worked dramatic.
Speaker 4: It's up one hundred and eighty four percent over the
Speaker 4: past twelve months, primarily because they're not talking about the metaverse.
Speaker 4: 're talking about cost cutting, driving profitability of the core
Speaker 4: advertising business, not letting zuck talk about the metaverse. That's
Speaker 4: why the stock's working.
Speaker 2: So are going to bring it?
Speaker 1: You actually hear music with the glasses? No, your kids,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, like, you know, Lisa walks around
Speaker 1: with the AirPods. Cool kids, But do the glasses really
Speaker 1: like give you good fidelity.
Speaker 8: They're supposed I mean, Mark Zuckworth, he posted a photo
Speaker 8: on threads. You know, we had them in the background,
Speaker 8: so it's they're there. There are threads, Yes, threads.
Speaker 3: That's the other thing.
Speaker 4: It's still on my phone, by the way, because that
Speaker 4: was the thing for a week, literally a week.
Speaker 8: Yeah, and for a week. It's kind of a social blurb.
Speaker 4: It's not there, no social thing.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 8: One last thing before we go. This is a this
Speaker 8: is a doozy Wall Street journal. The see through pants
Speaker 8: scare of the MLB Spring training. Okay, so the US, yes,
Speaker 8: apparently they're they're lightweight and lightweight and breatheable. But that
Speaker 8: causes an issue because the baseball players are worried that
Speaker 8: the uniforms are too sheer. They're revealing on the body.
Speaker 8: You know, the tucked in jersey tails, you know how
Speaker 8: they do that. It makes it look like they're wearing
Speaker 8: a diaper. So they're not very excepted. This is apparently
Speaker 8: Nike's new vapor premiere line. It's like sweat wicking technology,
Speaker 8: recycled yards, supposed to be lightweight. You know, it's hot
Speaker 8: out where they are.
Speaker 2: I have no idea what they're thinking.
Speaker 8: I have.
Speaker 1: There was one season I believe in the NHL where
Speaker 1: they did something as stupid as this.
Speaker 2: Is, years and years and years ago. Ye, just fix it,
Speaker 2: and I understand, we don't want to go back.
Speaker 1: I had this is Chilsten's drugs a long time ago.
Speaker 1: I had a Little League uniform that if I was
Speaker 1: thrown into water, I would have drowned.
Speaker 2: It was so thick it was wool or whatever. I
Speaker 2: was like, what, this doesn't feel like a uniform.
Speaker 8: Well, it's like out of a Seinfeld episode. You remember
Speaker 8: George Constanzo when he convinced okay, you know Steinbrenner, to
Speaker 8: change the uniforms, and they.
Speaker 1: Here, baby, you can find me under the lights. Diamonds
Speaker 1: under my eyes turn the rhythm up. Don't you want
Speaker 1: to just come along for the ride. I'm I the
Speaker 1: only one in the planet who hasn't seen the Barbie movie.
Speaker 2: Me too, you haven't segned? What do you think?
Speaker 8: I thought it was okay, that's what I daughter like.
Speaker 8: My daughter really liked it. It's already girl power.
Speaker 4: Steel is a huge fan.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's a very girl power woman.
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, she picked it over, picked it
Speaker 4: off armor, the whole female empowerment thing, that's what it is.
Speaker 1: And at my point here where I got to start
Speaker 1: watching Oscar movies just to keep so I can do
Speaker 1: the job.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, you do you do the Barbie movie.
Speaker 1: And I mean Ken took the you know, Ken's like
Speaker 1: in the Oscars and all that.
Speaker 2: But there's doll like dua lipa, I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: dance to night.
Speaker 1: We're gonna feature We're gonna feature lots of Oscar themes
Speaker 1: here in the coming days. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast,
Speaker 1: bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: You can also watch the show live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings
Speaker 1: from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters
Speaker 1: in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.