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Speaker 1: Joining us now Julia Pollock, Bloomberg's Audio studios recruits far

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Speaker 1: more important. This is the Bloomberg Savannahs Podcast. I'm Tim

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Speaker 1: Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for

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Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the

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Speaker 1: show weekday morning from seven to ten and the easter from.

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Speaker 2: Our global headquarters in New York City.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else

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Speaker 1: you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminals,

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Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business.

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Speaker 3: App hapecs orders today, we would have expected to see

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Speaker 3: a much larger decline in business investment with such high rates.

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Speaker 3: So the data that's coming in is pretty good, but

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Speaker 3: it's spectacular compared to where people thought we'd be now

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Speaker 3: a year ago. Over year ago and red started rising.

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Speaker 4: So when you talk to your companies here, what's the

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Speaker 4: challenge they have to attracting retaining talent here? Because I

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Speaker 4: look at a Jolt's number that's still really high, and

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Speaker 4: I'm like, I don't know all the Sweeney off Springs.

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Speaker 4: They're all employed here. What are your employers that you

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Speaker 4: talk to?

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Speaker 1: Tell Paul, you're the only father east of the Mississippi

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Speaker 1: River whose children are all employed gainfully.

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Speaker 2: It's a domain set of one.

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Speaker 3: Well, we have had twenty six months now of unemployment

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Speaker 3: atten below four percent. That's the longest period since the sixties. Really,

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Speaker 3: so this is still an incredibly tightly market. Employers thought

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Speaker 3: things would get easier, They thought leverage would swing all

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Speaker 3: the way back to employers. Hasn't really happened. They're still

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Speaker 3: struggling out there, and they're still finding that our attention

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Speaker 3: is fairly low. People are job hopping and finding better things.

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Speaker 2: I get to me, and I could be wrong.

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Speaker 1: There's so much hot era out there now about this

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Speaker 1: new how you get a job?

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Speaker 2: What do you see in the day to day grind

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Speaker 2: and Zip recruiter?

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Speaker 1: Like does a resume matterner anymore? Do you have to

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Speaker 1: master all this digital You got someone here. I needed

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Speaker 1: a change to be able to make more money and

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Speaker 1: have a life.

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Speaker 2: Outside my job.

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Speaker 1: Who doesn't Zip recruiter helped me discover something better. I

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Speaker 1: think our audience worldwide is fascinated by this new method.

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Speaker 1: How's a method work within our economy, and.

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Speaker 3: So for years, job search was centered around search right

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Speaker 3: people typing in a job title and finding the few

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Speaker 3: jobs that were in their area. Now, with AI matching technology,

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Speaker 3: people create a profile, they answer a couple of questions

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Speaker 3: and say what they want and what they're interested in,

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Speaker 3: and then a technology instantly alerts them to jobs that

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Speaker 3: match their skills and experience and shows them jobs they

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Speaker 3: wouldn't even have considered. And that is where the sort

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Speaker 3: of exciting new discovery is taking place.

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Speaker 2: I just wanted to be the bad boy for the

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Speaker 2: Rochester Reds aim back then, ya back then? So what

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Speaker 2: are the sectors?

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Speaker 4: I mean, what are the sectors that are just really

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Speaker 4: in dire need of just workers.

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Speaker 3: So there are many sectors where the workforce is aging,

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Speaker 3: where people are retiring in huge numbers, and where the

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Speaker 3: talent pipeline is drinking. People are not enrolling in accounting anymore,

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Speaker 3: They're not enrolling in the skilled trades in the kinds

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Speaker 3: of numbers. I have a whole theory on this, and

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Speaker 3: so a lot of jobs are just seen as kind

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Speaker 3: of old.

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Speaker 1: Why Paul and I are asking, because we've survived this

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Speaker 1: in school, what does the accounting industry do it's a

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Speaker 1: broad statement, not the big four, but what do they

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Speaker 1: do well?

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Speaker 3: So, so companies like KPMG, you're saying, wow, we've got

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Speaker 3: an image problem. Young smart people want to go into tech,

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Speaker 3: they want to go into AI and do all these

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Speaker 3: fun jobs.

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Speaker 5: They don't want to pay accounts.

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Speaker 3: They aft, So what is to pay?

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Speaker 2: Is the paul. It's a tough job, but.

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Speaker 3: The bigger issue is the perception that it's really hard

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Speaker 3: and stressful. So the number one reason people give us

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Speaker 3: for having quit a job is stress. People are increasingly

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Speaker 3: young people especially are prioritizing work life balance, and so

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Speaker 3: what KPMG and other companies that are strongly.

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Speaker 2: Account are prioritizing work, like are you kidding me? An

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Speaker 2: account what's an accountant make nowadays? Six fres dificult six

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Speaker 2: figures and twenty you pop them one hundred and eighty.

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Speaker 2: Nobody's worried about stress.

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Speaker 3: That's what companies that What industries that are very seasonal

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Speaker 3: like accounting, are doing now is increasing staffing generally across

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Speaker 3: the year, right, so that you don't have people who

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Speaker 3: are mostly kind of idle for several months and then

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Speaker 3: who have these massive rushes when they're working twenty four

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Speaker 3: to seven. They're the companies are absorbing that seasonal risk

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Speaker 3: and kind of overstaffing during during parts of the year

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Speaker 3: and then giving people an easier time.

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Speaker 4: I'm jerk, taxis, how does this back to home thing?

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Speaker 4: How is it playing out here? We're four or five

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Speaker 4: years into it here? How do you think it's How

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Speaker 4: is it shaking out? And we still have more room

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Speaker 4: to go in terms of that shacking.

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Speaker 3: Out, Very very resilient. Remote work is just about stabilized

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Speaker 3: in job hostings now at around eleven percent. There's still

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Speaker 3: a huge mismatch though, between demand for remote work and

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Speaker 3: remoters at hybrid remote and hybrid okay hybrid, sixty five

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Speaker 3: percent of job seekers say they would prefer to find

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Speaker 3: a remote or hybrid job. So there's huge.

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Speaker 5: Demand for remote work.

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Speaker 3: We know eleven percent of the people who just quit

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Speaker 3: jobs are looking for remote work, and that's why they quit.

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Speaker 2: One final question is just so so important. You got

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Speaker 2: to come back.

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Speaker 1: Where's she She's like West Coast, right, She's like working

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Speaker 1: like a twenty hour day going down to Santa.

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Speaker 2: Monica surfing, surfing and all that.

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Speaker 1: The absolute thing I hear from everybody older, is that

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Speaker 1: young kids won't work.

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Speaker 2: Is that true?

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Speaker 3: What do you see at ZIP recruiter, Well, prime age

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Speaker 3: labor force precipation is the highest it's been since two

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Speaker 3: thousand and one, right, so it's it's it's not exactly true,

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Speaker 3: but yes, there is a bit more priority placed on

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Speaker 3: work life balance and companies are having to improve and

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Speaker 3: that pandemic.

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Speaker 4: I think part of that's a pandemic. A lot of

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Speaker 4: people just said, man, life is short.

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Speaker 2: I need to read. I strongly agree.

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Speaker 4: I think that is.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I think that's here for a while.

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Speaker 2: Don't be a strange.

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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 2: And we would love to come out to La to

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Speaker 2: have you and you. We could do it.

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Speaker 1: We could, we could do it right by the pool

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Speaker 1: of the Sunset Tower Hotel. Nobody's there at seven, it's

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Speaker 1: three or four. We got Julie over there for early

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Speaker 1: morning cockcaills. Julia Pollock, thank you so much for Zipper.

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Speaker 2: This was fascinating joining us. Now. This is the interview.

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Speaker 1: Of the day with good perspective on the frenzy of

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Speaker 1: the moment. Paul, I'm embarrassed to say this, but I

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Speaker 1: got to rip up the script short with bitdog at

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Speaker 1: fifty six thousand with liz Anne Saunders at Charles Schwabs.

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Speaker 1: She and I are on the same page on this. Lizanne,

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Speaker 1: you know you've done fiscal advice to our government. You've

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Speaker 1: been involved in new administrations and giving them counsel on.

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Speaker 2: How to be responsible. As a five you were like seventeen,

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Speaker 2: I remember twenty years ago.

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Speaker 1: But liz Anne, did Gary Gensler screw this up? How

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Speaker 1: do you feel about the SEC green lighting bitcoin within

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Speaker 1: our retirement plans?

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Speaker 6: Well, there's there's always caution around this, and as you know,

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Speaker 6: Tom don't we don't offer it. We do provide the

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Speaker 6: opportunity for some of the you know, ETF vehicles to

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Speaker 6: be purchase a soul, but it's always with a wrapper

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Speaker 6: around about under standing the risk associated with this. It's

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Speaker 6: not a currency. It doesn't really provide and has it

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Speaker 6: provided an inflation hedge per se, and that you have

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Speaker 6: to treat it like a very speculative trade or investment

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Speaker 6: in your portfolio. But you know, beyond that, we we

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Speaker 6: can't control what all of our investors want to do.

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Speaker 6: But I'm a skeptic and I am just on crypto

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Speaker 6: in general.

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Speaker 1: Paul, I'm going to get in trouble here. But I'm

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Speaker 1: upset every time I go to the Bloomberg and do

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Speaker 1: the symbol for bitcoin that we have, which is xbt

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Speaker 1: x ray void Tom, and I have to hit the

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Speaker 1: famous yellow currency button.

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Speaker 2: Yes, you do next, it's not I don't care where

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Speaker 2: they put it. Yeah, but it's not.

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Speaker 1: I think it's more like an equity almost. But continue,

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Speaker 1: I just will talk.

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Speaker 2: Lizanne's right.

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Speaker 4: I know a guy of six floor we can talk

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Speaker 4: to about that work on the Hey, listen.

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Speaker 6: It's become very correlated to indexes like the Nasdaq one hundred,

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Speaker 6: So I think you're absolutely right.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Lizene, we're just kind of through the earning season here,

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Speaker 4: a couple more of the retailers left to come here.

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Speaker 4: What's your takeaway?

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Speaker 6: Maybe yet again, but to a more significant degree. You

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Speaker 6: saw analysts forced to lower the bar to a more

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Speaker 6: significant degree than was actually necessary, and as a result,

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Speaker 6: you've had almost a perfect round trip. If you go

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Speaker 6: back to October of last year, the expectation was about

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Speaker 6: eleven percent earn its growth for the fourth quarter. You

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Speaker 6: started the reporting season down sub two percent, but then

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Speaker 6: you've seen analysts have to ratchet things back up and

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Speaker 6: last I looked yesterday or Friday, it was back up

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Speaker 6: in the ten percent and change now. In fairness, though,

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Speaker 6: because of the way base effects work, that increase that

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Speaker 6: we're now seeing in Q four twenty twenty three, because

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Speaker 6: the bar gets set too low, You've seen analysts have

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Speaker 6: to ratchet down estimates for Q four twenty twenty four

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Speaker 6: because the year over years is not going to be

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Speaker 6: robust because you got that bigger pop in Q three.

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Speaker 6: But I think analysts have been admittedly flying a little

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Speaker 6: more blind in this environment called the pandemic era, where

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Speaker 6: even though there's fewer companies that are not providing guidance

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Speaker 6: at all, the guidance is just not quite as maybe

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Speaker 6: it was never precise, but it's a little the guidance

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Speaker 6: is a little more loosey goosey right now, leaving analysts

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Speaker 6: to have to kind of finagle things on their own

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Speaker 6: and also not adjust earnings too far out.

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Speaker 4: So one of the things Luzan as people try to

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Speaker 4: get a handle on those earnings is we need to

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Speaker 4: see a broadening out of this market. We saw a

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Speaker 4: little bit of a November December last year, but it

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Speaker 4: still feels like this market may be a little too

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Speaker 4: thin in terms of maybe the magnificent seven or five

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Speaker 4: or however many are left are kind of really driving

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Speaker 4: the performance here, and a lot of folks say that

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Speaker 4: makes them nervous. How do you think about it?

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Speaker 6: So I do think there's still is risk associated with

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Speaker 6: the concentration, but it's nowhere near as cute as it

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Speaker 6: was last year. To your point that we've had to

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Speaker 6: start whittling down from the magnificent seven to the sensational

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Speaker 6: six to the fabulous five, because we've seen that move

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Speaker 6: from in the case of Tesla, just out of the

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Speaker 6: seven in terms of the largest seven stocks recently dropped

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Speaker 6: down to number ten. And you've had stocks outside of

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Speaker 6: the sort of techy world like Brickshire Hathaway, like Eli,

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Speaker 6: Lilly leapfrog Tesla. But I think what's happening and you

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Speaker 6: don't pick it up necessarily by traditional breath statistics or

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Speaker 6: just looking at the MAGS seven is there's more churn

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Speaker 6: under the surface. So the Nasdaq Index overall, at the

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Speaker 6: index level, the maximum draw down this year from a

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Speaker 6: year to date high is only three percent, But the

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Speaker 6: average member maximum draw down again year to date from

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Speaker 6: a year to date high within the Nasdaq is negative

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Speaker 6: twenty two percent, so there's a lot more churn going

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Speaker 6: on under the surface. And I think in this kind

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Speaker 6: of market environment, to get the true story, the narrative

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Speaker 6: that the market is telling, you have got to leave

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Speaker 6: aside just index level analysis.

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Speaker 1: Lizanne four equity types in a room, you're going to

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Speaker 1: get seventeen answers.

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Speaker 2: On a rebalance.

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Speaker 1: What is the liz Ane Saunders formula.

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Speaker 6: For REBOUNDCE So I think to the extent investors can

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Speaker 6: do it based on the implications of turnover, tax bracket,

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Speaker 6: et cetera. I think portfolio based rebalancing versus calendar based rebalancing.

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Speaker 6: Letting actual moves in your portfolio, whether it's at the

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Speaker 6: individual stock level or some group like the Magnificent seven,

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Speaker 6: or at the sector asset class level. Let the moves

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Speaker 6: up and down as a share of your portfolio, dictate

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Speaker 6: the timing associated with rebalancing, versus say, what the mutual

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Speaker 6: fund complex does, which is last quarter, I mean last

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Speaker 6: week of every quarter. It's very calendar based, and I

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Speaker 6: think that's just a beneficial way for individual investors to

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Speaker 6: stay in gear not have to make all or nothing decisions.

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Speaker 6: And as I always say, do a version of BI

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Speaker 6: low cell high, which is you know, at low trim high.

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Speaker 6: I suppose boring to talk about. I love when you

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Speaker 6: guys ask me about that, but for the most part,

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Speaker 6: it's not maybe what it's not the bomb bass that

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Speaker 6: is more intriguing to people, but it's actually what matters.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Liz, and thinking about this market here, a lot

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Speaker 4: of folks are saying, yeah, earnings are fine, but we've

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Speaker 4: got to focus on what the Fed's going to do.

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Speaker 4: And I'm an old self side I don'tlyt so earnings

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Speaker 4: still matter to me, but we can't escape that this

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Speaker 4: FED is really a key driver of this marketplace. What

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Speaker 4: do you expect our freeder reserve to do this year?

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Speaker 6: Well, as you guys know, we've talked about this a

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Speaker 6: lot on this program and on TV in advance of

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Speaker 6: the better than expected job most recent job support, the

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Speaker 6: hotter than expected CPI report. We were not in the

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Speaker 6: March camp, felt that that was just too aggressive an assumption,

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Speaker 6: not to mention the six to seven cuts priced in

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Speaker 6: at that point, and that's now shifted to an outlook

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Speaker 6: that's a little more in line with the fed's dots,

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Speaker 6: but I think it's still too soon to tell the

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Speaker 6: FED is data dependent. I think this is a FED

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Speaker 6: that took the elevator up, the opposite of what they

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Speaker 6: normally do, which is take the escalator up. And I

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Speaker 6: think they're going to take the sc later down in

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Speaker 6: the interest of making sure that inflation has come down

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Speaker 6: as staying there. The other really important thing, and this

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Speaker 6: is what you need to watch for in all the

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Speaker 6: upcoming inflation data reports is Powell's emphasis, not at the

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Speaker 6: FOMC meeting or the presser, but in the sixty minutes

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Speaker 6: interview when he somewhat suddenly mentioned the twelve month rate

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Speaker 6: of change as being a key as opposed to the

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Speaker 6: thick six month rate of change or the three month

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Speaker 6: rate of change. That's another way of saying, we want

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Speaker 6: to sort of elongate the analysis period to feel confident

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Speaker 6: that inflation has come down and it's likely to stay down.

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Speaker 1: Li'sand a little weight to the tape here of the

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Speaker 1: magnificent whatever they are, a little saggy. Microsoft goes from

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Speaker 1: a four to twelve over the last couple of days

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Speaker 1: down to four oh seven right now, even in vidio

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Speaker 1: breaking down a little bit, do you still model out

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Speaker 1: it is completely normative to have a ten percent correction?

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Speaker 1: Is that still part of the Saunders playbook?

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Speaker 6: Sure, and a lot of people forget we had one.

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Speaker 6: In the latter of last year, there was a ten

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Speaker 6: percent correction in the S and P more for the

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Speaker 6: NASDAC from the late July to late October ten year

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Speaker 6: yield spike from subforida to up five. So it's incredible

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Speaker 6: how short memories are, as if the most recent correction

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Speaker 6: was way back in the twenty twenty covid era. And

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Speaker 6: I think to some degree, not on a day to

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Speaker 6: day basis or maybe week to week, but I think

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Speaker 6: the bond market is to some degree still in the

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Speaker 6: driver's seat for the equity market. And I think if

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Speaker 6: we were to get an outsized move, especially tied to

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Speaker 6: inflation on the upside and yields, I think that that

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Speaker 6: would be to the detriment of the equity market.

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Speaker 1: Lizanne Saunders, thank you so much. In honor of Lizanne,

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Speaker 1: Tomorrow all of our music.

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Speaker 2: Will be led Zeppelin. This is really cool.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he was with Steve Cohen over to SEC

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Speaker 1: and then Cohen bought the Mets.

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Speaker 2: And Nicholes said forget it, see.

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Speaker 1: You and you know this is a guy who writes

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Speaker 1: a memo and it's read religiously on Wall Street because

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Speaker 1: of his work, And like Mario Gibelly, I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: it back to there's something about being an auto securities

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Speaker 1: analyst as Nick Colis was at First Boston a few

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Speaker 1: years ago.

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Speaker 2: Is just hugely read Data Trek.

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Speaker 1: Again, we protect the copyright of all of our guests

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Speaker 1: looked at Data Trek to get Nick Colis's brilliant work.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Temmy had a pretty good career on Wall Street.

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Speaker 4: But here's a guy. It goes to Haverford College, great

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Speaker 4: school outside of Philly. He majors in Near Eastern archaeology.

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Speaker 4: Are you kidding me? If one of your offspring came

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Speaker 4: to you, Thomason, I'm going to major near Yeah, let's

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Speaker 4: go there.

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Speaker 1: Right now, Nick Colis, how about that Near Eastern archaeology

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Speaker 1: to get you through?

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Speaker 2: But how did that work?

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Speaker 1: Oh?

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Speaker 5: Very very slowly, very slightly.

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Speaker 4: But he made up for it by getting his MBA

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Speaker 4: at the Chicago Hey, Nick, thanks so much for joining

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Speaker 4: us here. Warren Buffett out with his annual letter. You

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Speaker 4: know what he didn't even talk about once was AI.

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Speaker 4: What do we read into that if Buffett doesn't care

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Speaker 4: about AI. Is he missing something? Are we overplaying something?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's fascinating.

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Speaker 7: You're right. He didn't mention AI even once in his letter,

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Speaker 7: which is one of the most widely read portfolio manager

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Speaker 7: letters in the world.

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Speaker 5: And I just take it as kind of Warren being Warren.

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Speaker 7: He cares about fundamentals, and he cares about company management,

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Speaker 7: and he cares about return of capital. AI is probably

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Speaker 7: just a footnote for him.

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Speaker 4: Are you concerned or to what level are you concerned?

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Speaker 1: Nick?

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Speaker 4: About? This is still a very concentrated market. There's not

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Speaker 4: a lot of breadth that there, whether it's the Magnificent

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Speaker 4: seven or five, or whether it's just a handful of

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Speaker 4: names pushing this market higher. The technicians telling me that's

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Speaker 4: not really a healthy market. How do you think about it?

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Speaker 7: It's I totally take a point that it's probably not

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Speaker 7: a healthy market, but it's the market that we have

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Speaker 7: and to some degree at least forgetting some movement out

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Speaker 7: of names besides tech. So Lily is helping healthcare, Berkshire

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Speaker 7: is helping financials, and those are two groups that are

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Speaker 7: performing here to date. So while we're having some amount

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Speaker 7: of narrowness at least it's narrowness in some sectors, it's

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Speaker 7: besides tech and tech adjacent. So I put that in

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Speaker 7: the win column versus say last year, where it was

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Speaker 7: really almost all tech for the first half of the year.

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Speaker 4: So when you think about this market here, Nick, I mean,

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Speaker 4: do we have to be smart on earnings? Do we

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Speaker 4: have to be smart on the FED? I mean, I'm

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Speaker 4: not even sure what's really driving this mark.

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Speaker 1: That's the smartest question I've heard this month, Paul. The

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Speaker 1: month's ending, the month's ending. I mean, this is really

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Speaker 1: really important.

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Speaker 2: Fos. Paul Sweening nails it.

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Speaker 1: Nicholas, am I a FED watcher or a street watcher?

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Speaker 7: I think you've got to be a street watcher. I

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Speaker 7: think it is said to a first degree of magnitude.

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Speaker 7: Rates don't really matter anymore. It comes down to what's

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Speaker 7: the story, what's the theme. If it's tech, that it's AI,

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Speaker 7: if it's outside of tech, that it's organic growth, So

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Speaker 7: a lily for example, being for the best example. It

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Speaker 7: comes down to stocks, It comes down to sectors. We've

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Speaker 7: got three winning sectors year to date, financial, healthcare, and tech,

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Speaker 7: and that's the way it's going to be most of

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Speaker 7: the year. This is kind of a mid cycle market.

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Speaker 7: This is a market where we're caring about growth, not Rachel.

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Speaker 1: You a guy that I miss, miss miss each and

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Speaker 1: every day. He was so kind to me, Clayton Christiensen

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Speaker 1: in disruption. This morning, we're seeing disruption at Macy's, Nick

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Speaker 1: coolis are we going to see a lot more disruption

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Speaker 1: of the have nots of corporate enterprise in the next

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Speaker 1: five years?

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Speaker 7: Boy?

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Speaker 5: I miss Christensen as well. It's a good point.

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Speaker 7: And you know his thesis was that disruption happens in perpetuity.

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Speaker 7: It happens every day in every way, and so I

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Speaker 7: think it's the single most important theme in investing, frankly,

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Speaker 7: not just day to day, in week to week, but

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Speaker 7: year and year and decades a decade.

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Speaker 4: So, Nick, if that is in fact the case in

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Speaker 4: terms of disruption, is there any scenario where I'm not

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Speaker 4: overweight tech? Just like forever?

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Speaker 7: Our basic take on this has been, no, you have

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Speaker 7: to be overweight tech and tech adjacent because tech is

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Speaker 7: now about, you know, in four different sectors.

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Speaker 5: But you do have to be long tech. And we

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Speaker 5: actually done.

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Speaker 7: Maths compared XLK to Berkshire Hathaway and XLK usually beats

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Speaker 7: Berkshire Hathaway on any given rolling one year basis back

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Speaker 7: for twenty thirty years. Innovation trumps everything, Technology trumps everything.

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Speaker 7: It's been that way for forever. I don't think it'll change.

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Speaker 1: Well, where are you? And Paul was mentioning you're work

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Speaker 1: going back to First Boston.

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Speaker 2: I look at AI A. I don't know what I'm

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Speaker 2: talking about.

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Speaker 1: I'm not qualified to opine, but Nick Collis, I look

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Speaker 1: at it where, Okay, people are.

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Speaker 2: Going to fail it AI, but there's got to be

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Speaker 2: some winners out there. Is that how you look at it?

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Speaker 7: I look at it kind of in this sort of

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Speaker 7: cliched picks and shovels paradigm where you don't necessarily want

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Speaker 7: to be the person going out to look for the gold.

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Speaker 7: You want to be the person selling the picks and

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Speaker 7: the shovels and the genes and sieves to the people

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Speaker 7: who want to go out and search for the gold.

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Speaker 7: And you know, that's why Nvidia is working so well,

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Speaker 7: that's why other names like Amazon should work fine.

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Speaker 4: So, Nick, you say that earnings for this market, what's

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Speaker 4: your takeaway from this most recent earning season. We've just

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Speaker 4: kind of just about to conclude here this week.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, this was kind of a C minus earning season

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Speaker 7: for me. It didn't really knock the cover off the ball.

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Speaker 7: You had some big wins Facebook obviously, Meta, Nvidia obviously,

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Speaker 7: but by and large, this was kind of a very

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Speaker 7: mediocre fourth quarter and the market knew it would be,

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Speaker 7: which is where we had that swoon last year. But

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Speaker 7: I think we're fine the rest of the year. Earnings

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Speaker 7: growth should pick up. But the current earning season was

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Speaker 7: kind of a nothing for me.

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Speaker 4: So what's the key driver for you through the mainit

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Speaker 4: of the year. Is it going to be earnings? Do

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Speaker 4: you need to see meaningful earnings growth in the back

441
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 4: half of this year? Is there earnings risk in this market?

442
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 7: There is some earnings risk versus expectations. I mean, we

443
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 7: all know that analysts guests too high and then have

444
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,199
Speaker 7: to cut down. It was the case when I was

445
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 7: doing the job in the nineteen nineties. It's still the

446
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 7: case now. So earnings won't meet the streets current expectations,

447
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 7: but there will be enough earnings leverage to give us

448
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 7: four or five six seven percent earnings on say three

449
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 7: percent revenue growth, and that's enough to keep the market going.

450
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 7: The market's not just worried about this year. It's worried

451
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 7: about showing Ordnie's leverage for the next two, three, four,

452
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 7: five years, and we should get that extra recession. This

453
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 7: year just has to show that it has some growth.

454
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 1: Nick, we'red fifty one hundred rounded up. I mean, do

455
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 1: you have an XPX target out one year, two years?

456
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 1: Are you doing an ed yard any of the Roaring twenties?

457
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 7: No, but I do understand that there is a I

458
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 7: do think that there.

459
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 5: Is a very strong tail into this market.

460
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 7: I don't have a nartificial price target, but I'm totally

461
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,640
Speaker 7: comfortable telling clients belong Us Equities here.

462
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 2: Nichole is hugely valuable. Look at the front pages around

463
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:49,919
Speaker 2: the world. She called me up today, she said, I

464
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 2: got twenty ideas. I said, keep slash it.

465
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 8: All right, we're talking about the zembic effect. First of all,

466
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 8: this is from the New York Times. They're saying a

467
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,439
Speaker 8: lot of those sele celebrities that kind of you know,

468
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 8: posted about their curves and how they're you know, going

469
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 8: through all these things, and a lot of fans. They

470
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 8: gained a lot of fans. Well, now they have to

471
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 8: explain how they dropped weight because some of them are

472
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 8: on these weight loss drugs. So it's a back and forth.

473
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 8: The fans are feeling betrayed about it. The social media influencers,

474
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,360
Speaker 8: they're struggling over well, how do I say this now?

475
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 8: Because for so long I was talking about fat shaming

476
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 8: and remember.

477
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: Bostics walking by right now, Romaine and I are number

478
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 2: our fans are not worried about losing our curves. I

479
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 2: mean I know that right now, Paul, What do you

480
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 2: think of.

481
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 4: It's The effect is everywhere. I mean, you know a

482
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 4: lot of people and unfortunately for a lot of folks

483
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 4: who really need it, they can't get it right because

484
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 4: some people, for.

485
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 1: Me on this it's a diabetic drug, yes, correct, and

486
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: if I have a serious insulin diabetic issue, I can't

487
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: get my drug because somebody's trying to figure out correct rounds.

488
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 8: Yeah, yep, that's and it's expensive, expensive scripts.

489
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 4: They're writing the scripts and they're just not enough supply.

490
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 4: So a lot of the pharma super manufacturers they're trying

491
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 4: to ramp up supply, much like we did, you know,

492
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 4: during the COVID and the vaccines.

493
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 2: But it's just gonna take the time next.

494
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 8: All right, Wall Street Journal that's where we going next.

495
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 8: The number of private equity firms owned by women minorities, well,

496
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 8: that's had a record raising capital the last year. It's

497
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 8: starting to downfall, starting to starting to dwindle for their

498
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 8: fundraising goals. This it was a report from investment firm

499
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 8: Fairview Capital Partners. So they say that in group of

500
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 8: firms are diverse fying groups, it's running into the toughest

501
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 8: market conditions. So some of those sub segments. Here's who's

502
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 8: seeing a decline. It's the number of funds being raised

503
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 8: by Black Asian American women who owned firms last year,

504
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 8: that's shrank for the first time. And then women minority

505
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 8: own funds their overall have started to decrease their fundraising targets.

506
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 8: And the reason they're saying their concern is because bringing

507
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 8: diversity into venture, they're saying, is going to help you know,

508
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 8: these overlook segments. So that's why this is a concern

509
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 8: for them. But they're starting to fall off.

510
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, i'mazing.

511
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 4: Just you know, as interest rates came moved higher, just

512
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 4: became harder to raise capital for everyone, including you know,

513
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 4: some of these minority groups. And so I guess it's

514
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 4: not surprising from that perspective, but you know, you hear

515
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 4: from the folks in the financial services industry. They're trying

516
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 4: to be supportive of diversity across all across the industry.

517
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 2: But it's tough. It always has been, quite.

518
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 8: Frankly, most finely.

519
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 2: All right, what else?

520
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 7: Right?

521
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 8: So we got some tech here Meta we have the

522
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 8: first true augmented reality glasses could be unveiled this fall,

523
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 8: just when you've got the vision pro right, Okay, this

524
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 8: it's an internal project to referred to as Orion. It's

525
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 8: different from metas they have the ray band smart glasses,

526
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 8: it's different from It's not like what you're wearing Thomas

527
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 8: got toes. These are a little bit thicker. They're different

528
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 8: from the Quest headsets too. So they're kind of going

529
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 8: back to the whole Meta thing. It seems like it's

530
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,479
Speaker 8: been in the work for so years under their Meta's

531
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 8: Reality Labs division. No word on the cost of it,

532
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 8: but you know this is from Business Insider. They're saying

533
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 8: it's going to be unveiled during their annual Connect conference

534
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 8: that comes out this fall, so we'll see.

535
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:13,119
Speaker 1: No.

536
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 4: I mean, the stock has worked, The stock has worked dramatic.

537
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 4: It's up one hundred and eighty four percent over the

538
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 4: past twelve months, primarily because they're not talking about the metaverse.

539
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 4: 're talking about cost cutting, driving profitability of the core

540
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 4: advertising business, not letting zuck talk about the metaverse. That's

541
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 4: why the stock's working.

542
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 2: So are going to bring it?

543
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: You actually hear music with the glasses? No, your kids,

544
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, like, you know, Lisa walks around

545
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 1: with the AirPods. Cool kids, But do the glasses really

546
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 1: like give you good fidelity.

547
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 8: They're supposed I mean, Mark Zuckworth, he posted a photo

548
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 8: on threads. You know, we had them in the background,

549
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 8: so it's they're there. There are threads, Yes, threads.

550
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 3: That's the other thing.

551
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 4: It's still on my phone, by the way, because that

552
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 4: was the thing for a week, literally a week.

553
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, and for a week. It's kind of a social blurb.

554
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 4: It's not there, no social thing.

555
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 2: All right.

556
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 8: One last thing before we go. This is a this

557
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 8: is a doozy Wall Street journal. The see through pants

558
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 8: scare of the MLB Spring training. Okay, so the US, yes,

559
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:25,239
Speaker 8: apparently they're they're lightweight and lightweight and breatheable. But that

560
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,679
Speaker 8: causes an issue because the baseball players are worried that

561
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 8: the uniforms are too sheer. They're revealing on the body.

562
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 8: You know, the tucked in jersey tails, you know how

563
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 8: they do that. It makes it look like they're wearing

564
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,880
Speaker 8: a diaper. So they're not very excepted. This is apparently

565
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 8: Nike's new vapor premiere line. It's like sweat wicking technology,

566
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 8: recycled yards, supposed to be lightweight. You know, it's hot

567
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 8: out where they are.

568
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 2: I have no idea what they're thinking.

569
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 8: I have.

570
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 1: There was one season I believe in the NHL where

571
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 1: they did something as stupid as this.

572
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: Is, years and years and years ago. Ye, just fix it,

573
00:27:58,119 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 2: and I understand, we don't want to go back.

574
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 1: I had this is Chilsten's drugs a long time ago.

575
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: I had a Little League uniform that if I was

576
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 1: thrown into water, I would have drowned.

577
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 2: It was so thick it was wool or whatever. I

578
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 2: was like, what, this doesn't feel like a uniform.

579
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 8: Well, it's like out of a Seinfeld episode. You remember

580
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 8: George Constanzo when he convinced okay, you know Steinbrenner, to

581
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 8: change the uniforms, and they.

582
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: Here, baby, you can find me under the lights. Diamonds

583
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 1: under my eyes turn the rhythm up. Don't you want

584
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: to just come along for the ride. I'm I the

585
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 1: only one in the planet who hasn't seen the Barbie movie.

586
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 2: Me too, you haven't segned? What do you think?

587
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 8: I thought it was okay, that's what I daughter like.

588
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 8: My daughter really liked it. It's already girl power.

589
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 4: Steel is a huge fan.

590
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 5: Yeah.

591
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's a very girl power woman.

592
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, she picked it over, picked it

593
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 4: off armor, the whole female empowerment thing, that's what it is.

594
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: And at my point here where I got to start

595
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 1: watching Oscar movies just to keep so I can do

596
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: the job.

597
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, you do you do the Barbie movie.

598
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 1: And I mean Ken took the you know, Ken's like

599
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 1: in the Oscars and all that.

600
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 2: But there's doll like dua lipa, I mean, you know,

601
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 2: dance to night.

602
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 1: We're gonna feature We're gonna feature lots of Oscar themes

603
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 1: here in the coming days. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast,

604
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 1: bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

605
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 1: You can also watch the show live on YouTube.

606
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg.

607
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings

608
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters

609
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

610
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio,

611
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg

612
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 2: Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.