Speaker 1: Countdown with Keith Olderman is a production of iHeartRadio. This
Speaker 1: is a countdown full of an podcast. I'm Keith Olderman.
Speaker 1: Let me be clear on what I am about to say.
Speaker 1: There is no inside information here, I have no sources.
Speaker 1: I am not predicting this, and I am not advocating this,
Speaker 1: and I am not happy about this, and I have
Speaker 1: not even spent much time thinking about it whether or
Speaker 1: not I agree with it. This is an assessment and
Speaker 1: it has changed. I think the president is going to
Speaker 1: stand aside and Kamala Harris will replace him as the
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee. And I think there is a fifty to
Speaker 1: fifty chance that he will further resign his office before
Speaker 1: the election. Again, this is not a report, it's an assessment.
Speaker 1: I also do not think any of this is imminent,
Speaker 1: but it is based on two things, principally that have
Speaker 1: happened during the day Tuesday comments by Nancy Pelosi which
Speaker 1: read to me as a signal to President Biden to
Speaker 1: act while it is still entirely in your own control.
Speaker 1: And secondly, these internal Progressive polls leaked to Puck News
Speaker 1: about the fall in mister Biden's support in the swing
Speaker 1: states and more importantly, the new reality. They reflect that
Speaker 1: there are now after the debate, as many as six
Speaker 1: new swing states that were solidly in Biden's camp a
Speaker 1: week ago. Today that New Hampshire is now Trump by three,
Speaker 1: Virginia is Trump by one and a half, that the
Speaker 1: President now has leads of half a point or less
Speaker 1: in New Mexico, in Maine, in Minnesota, that Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia,
Speaker 1: North Carolina, and the Nebraska second are all Trump by
Speaker 1: four or more. And it's seven in Michigan and Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: right now, that in the three days after the debate,
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's support dropped by roughly two percentage points in
Speaker 1: all twelve of these states I've just mentioned, and also
Speaker 1: in Colorado and Minnesota. And what this internal polling done
Speaker 1: for Democrats says is that if Joe Biden cannot recover
Speaker 1: all of that, the Democrats are looking at an election
Speaker 1: loss by at least one hundred electoral votes. Pucks Peter
Speaker 1: Hamby says the polls are from open Labs, the progressive
Speaker 1: nonprofit that does not survey for public consumption, but instead
Speaker 1: for a variety of democratic organizations and is linked directly
Speaker 1: to future forward a Biden campaign super pack. Open Labs
Speaker 1: has also done a lot of work for the Democratic
Speaker 1: Senatorial Committee. Hamby also caveats that their national picture barely
Speaker 1: changed at all after the poll after the debate. But
Speaker 1: if it is one thing that we learned in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: after we learned it and forgot it in two thousand,
Speaker 1: it is that the national polls don't matter a dam,
Speaker 1: and that literally the swing state polls are truly parts
Speaker 1: that are greater than the sum. Open Labs also reports
Speaker 1: a seismic shift in a deep interior number in the polls.
Speaker 1: In May, one quarter of Biden's twenty twenty voters surveyed
Speaker 1: said he should drop out. Now open Labs reports the
Speaker 1: number after the debate has ballooned to forty percent, forty
Speaker 1: percent of those who supported Joe Biden in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: telling them he should drop out. The company also surveyed
Speaker 1: potential substitute candidates in the swing state the vice president,
Speaker 1: Governor's Newsom and Wittner, and Secretary Buddhage Edge. And they
Speaker 1: all Paul better than does Joe Biden against Trump. And
Speaker 1: they all Paul better than Joe Biden does in all
Speaker 1: of the swing states. There is also a c ann poll.
Speaker 1: I'm not attaching nearly as much credibility to it as
Speaker 1: I am to these open labs numbers, but it is confirmatory.
Speaker 1: It says today, of all voters of all parties, three
Speaker 1: quarters say the Democrats would have a better shot of
Speaker 1: retaining the White House if somebody other than Biden runs.
Speaker 1: Then there are the comments, and as I mentioned, principle
Speaker 1: among them from Nancy Pelosi on MSNBC. I think it's
Speaker 1: a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or
Speaker 1: is this a condition? When people ask that question, it's
Speaker 1: completely legitimate of both candidates. Pelosi went on to reveal
Speaker 1: she has not spoken to the president, but quoting again,
Speaker 1: it's not a question of not having an opportunity to
Speaker 1: make our concerns known or have some questions answered. She
Speaker 1: also says others are speaking, and their assessments conflict. Quote.
Speaker 1: Some are alike, well, how can we subject the process
Speaker 1: to what might be possible? Others are Joe is our guy.
Speaker 1: We love him, we trust him. He has vision, knowledge, judgment, integrity.
Speaker 1: I trust his judgment on quote. I don't think you
Speaker 1: have to know Nancy Pelosi very well to know that
Speaker 1: much of that sounds like code. I think it's a
Speaker 1: legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is
Speaker 1: this a condition? If there were anything she could say
Speaker 1: that would do less to contain all of this, I
Speaker 1: am hard pressed to guess what it could be. She
Speaker 1: also talks about subjecting the nominating process to what might
Speaker 1: be possible. And we have Jim Clyburn, one of Biden's
Speaker 1: oldest and most loyal supporters, saying he quote will support
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris if Biden steps aside. The Texas Congressman Lloyd
Speaker 1: Doggett has explicitly today called for Biden to step aside.
Speaker 1: Says that as the debate, instead of reassuring voters, the
Speaker 1: president failed to effectively defend as many accomplishments and expose
Speaker 1: Trump's many lies, and he should step away and to
Speaker 1: add insult to last week's injury to democracy at his hands,
Speaker 1: CNN Jake Tapper reported then partially retracted and changed a
Speaker 1: story about a teleconference among Democratic governors Monday led by
Speaker 1: Minnesota Tim Walls to discuss the ticket. He says, the
Speaker 1: unnamed governors, we don't even know how many of them
Speaker 1: there were were surprised to learn that the President had
Speaker 1: spoken to none of them. Yet there now will be
Speaker 1: some kind of meeting with the governors and the White House,
Speaker 1: presumably with the President tomorrow and the last thrust of
Speaker 1: history's dagger. Experts at the Campaign Legal Center are telling
Speaker 1: the website The American Prospect that if Biden does withdraw,
Speaker 1: then there is only one way for the new nominee
Speaker 1: and the Democratic Party to smoothly spend all the money
Speaker 1: that has been raised by the Biden for President campaign committee,
Speaker 1: and as of May thirty one, that was two hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty million dollars, another thirty three million raised since
Speaker 1: the debate, probably much more in the coffers. The only
Speaker 1: way that committee could seamlessly spend all that money without restrictions,
Speaker 1: without firewalls, without labyrinths, spend it on the new candidate
Speaker 1: is if the new candidate is Vice President Harris. As
Speaker 1: to the other thing I suggested about Biden possibly actually
Speaker 1: leaving office, that is a pure hunch on my part,
Speaker 1: built out of several ideas, primarily the one that if
Speaker 1: the President were to agree or be convinced that he
Speaker 1: has to bow out of the ticket now that he
Speaker 1: would also see the almost priceless value of immediately attaching
Speaker 1: the title of the incumbent to Kamala Harris's name. Running
Speaker 1: as the president instead of as the vice president, Kamala
Speaker 1: Harris's support would necessarily rise by how much is entirely speculative?
Speaker 1: How much does it need to be? Obviously I said
Speaker 1: here in the latest full podcast on Tuesday morning. It
Speaker 1: is also inarguable that if the president has to drop
Speaker 1: out because he is not up to discharging the office
Speaker 1: six months and eighteen days from now, he's probably not
Speaker 1: up to discharging the office right now either. The argument
Speaker 1: for not resigning but leaving the ticket is more ethereal
Speaker 1: more philosophical. Could Joe Biden staying in office while withdrawing
Speaker 1: from the ticket ennoble this process. Here is the man
Speaker 1: giving up the most powerful position in the world, the
Speaker 1: man who beat Trump, giving up the office he spent
Speaker 1: his entire life trying to reach, and giving it up
Speaker 1: solely to ensure that America beats Trump again. And here
Speaker 1: standing beside him is the public servant, the vice president,
Speaker 1: who he has selected and who he now endorses. Is
Speaker 1: that worth her not being the incumbent in November again?
Speaker 1: There is plenty of new material on the table to
Speaker 1: sift through. Nothing has happened. I don't believe anything will
Speaker 1: happen imminently. I'm just saying the vibe changed. My vibe changed.
Speaker 1: I'll be back with the regular edition of the podcast
Speaker 1: late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning to assess the new
Speaker 1: material on the table and what could be new developments
Speaker 1: in the rest of the day. And again my caveat,
Speaker 1: this is an assessment. This is the kind of recalculation
Speaker 1: you go through in your head as you judge anything
Speaker 1: that has one hundred factors in it, or you look
Speaker 1: at a patient or a job and say, I don't
Speaker 1: think this is going to last much longer. There is
Speaker 1: no source reporting behind what I am saying. I take
Speaker 1: no pride whatsoever in saying any of it. I just
Speaker 1: think that while it is my job here to express
Speaker 1: opinions and try to influence events, as unlikely as that
Speaker 1: really is, my primary purpose is to tell you what
Speaker 1: is fact, what I have heard, and just as importantly,
Speaker 1: what my assessment of all these facts and hearings is.
Speaker 1: And my assessment is Joe Biden will leave the ticket,
Speaker 1: presumably not imminently. Let me close with the perfect phrasing,
Speaker 1: but exactly what I feel is going on today, and
Speaker 1: it is from my friend for more than half a century,
Speaker 1: from the days when I was the editor in chief
Speaker 1: and he was my ace news reporter on our high
Speaker 1: school newspaper, Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Inquirer. It does feel,
Speaker 1: Will says, like an energy shift in the force. This
Speaker 1: has been a countdown bulletin podcast. I'm Keith Olrumantown with
Speaker 1: Keith Olderman is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts
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