1 00:00:04,795 --> 00:00:15,795 Speaker 1: Countdown with Keith Olderman is a production of iHeartRadio. This 2 00:00:15,835 --> 00:00:19,115 Speaker 1: is a countdown full of an podcast. I'm Keith Olderman. 3 00:00:19,275 --> 00:00:21,275 Speaker 1: Let me be clear on what I am about to say. 4 00:00:21,315 --> 00:00:25,155 Speaker 1: There is no inside information here, I have no sources. 5 00:00:25,595 --> 00:00:28,395 Speaker 1: I am not predicting this, and I am not advocating this, 6 00:00:28,475 --> 00:00:30,715 Speaker 1: and I am not happy about this, and I have 7 00:00:30,835 --> 00:00:34,595 Speaker 1: not even spent much time thinking about it whether or 8 00:00:34,635 --> 00:00:38,875 Speaker 1: not I agree with it. This is an assessment and 9 00:00:38,955 --> 00:00:41,675 Speaker 1: it has changed. I think the president is going to 10 00:00:41,715 --> 00:00:44,435 Speaker 1: stand aside and Kamala Harris will replace him as the 11 00:00:44,475 --> 00:00:48,395 Speaker 1: Democratic nominee. And I think there is a fifty to 12 00:00:48,475 --> 00:00:52,395 Speaker 1: fifty chance that he will further resign his office before 13 00:00:52,435 --> 00:00:56,515 Speaker 1: the election. Again, this is not a report, it's an assessment. 14 00:00:56,995 --> 00:00:59,715 Speaker 1: I also do not think any of this is imminent, 15 00:00:59,755 --> 00:01:02,675 Speaker 1: but it is based on two things, principally that have 16 00:01:02,795 --> 00:01:06,795 Speaker 1: happened during the day Tuesday comments by Nancy Pelosi which 17 00:01:06,875 --> 00:01:09,995 Speaker 1: read to me as a signal to President Biden to 18 00:01:10,155 --> 00:01:13,315 Speaker 1: act while it is still entirely in your own control. 19 00:01:14,195 --> 00:01:19,915 Speaker 1: And secondly, these internal Progressive polls leaked to Puck News 20 00:01:20,115 --> 00:01:23,635 Speaker 1: about the fall in mister Biden's support in the swing 21 00:01:23,675 --> 00:01:28,595 Speaker 1: states and more importantly, the new reality. They reflect that 22 00:01:28,675 --> 00:01:32,675 Speaker 1: there are now after the debate, as many as six 23 00:01:33,235 --> 00:01:38,355 Speaker 1: new swing states that were solidly in Biden's camp a 24 00:01:38,395 --> 00:01:42,995 Speaker 1: week ago. Today that New Hampshire is now Trump by three, 25 00:01:43,435 --> 00:01:45,875 Speaker 1: Virginia is Trump by one and a half, that the 26 00:01:45,915 --> 00:01:49,275 Speaker 1: President now has leads of half a point or less 27 00:01:49,355 --> 00:01:58,035 Speaker 1: in New Mexico, in Maine, in Minnesota, that Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, 28 00:01:58,235 --> 00:02:02,355 Speaker 1: North Carolina, and the Nebraska second are all Trump by 29 00:02:02,555 --> 00:02:06,635 Speaker 1: four or more. And it's seven in Michigan and Pennsylvania 30 00:02:06,715 --> 00:02:09,875 Speaker 1: right now, that in the three days after the debate, 31 00:02:10,235 --> 00:02:14,475 Speaker 1: Joe Biden's support dropped by roughly two percentage points in 32 00:02:14,675 --> 00:02:18,195 Speaker 1: all twelve of these states I've just mentioned, and also 33 00:02:18,275 --> 00:02:23,835 Speaker 1: in Colorado and Minnesota. And what this internal polling done 34 00:02:23,995 --> 00:02:28,675 Speaker 1: for Democrats says is that if Joe Biden cannot recover 35 00:02:28,835 --> 00:02:32,155 Speaker 1: all of that, the Democrats are looking at an election 36 00:02:32,315 --> 00:02:37,955 Speaker 1: loss by at least one hundred electoral votes. Pucks Peter 37 00:02:38,035 --> 00:02:42,035 Speaker 1: Hamby says the polls are from open Labs, the progressive 38 00:02:42,155 --> 00:02:46,075 Speaker 1: nonprofit that does not survey for public consumption, but instead 39 00:02:46,075 --> 00:02:49,875 Speaker 1: for a variety of democratic organizations and is linked directly 40 00:02:49,955 --> 00:02:54,915 Speaker 1: to future forward a Biden campaign super pack. Open Labs 41 00:02:54,915 --> 00:02:56,955 Speaker 1: has also done a lot of work for the Democratic 42 00:02:56,995 --> 00:03:02,795 Speaker 1: Senatorial Committee. Hamby also caveats that their national picture barely 43 00:03:02,915 --> 00:03:07,035 Speaker 1: changed at all after the poll after the debate. But 44 00:03:07,115 --> 00:03:09,555 Speaker 1: if it is one thing that we learned in twenty sixteen, 45 00:03:09,595 --> 00:03:11,595 Speaker 1: after we learned it and forgot it in two thousand, 46 00:03:11,795 --> 00:03:13,955 Speaker 1: it is that the national polls don't matter a dam, 47 00:03:14,435 --> 00:03:18,355 Speaker 1: and that literally the swing state polls are truly parts 48 00:03:18,395 --> 00:03:22,475 Speaker 1: that are greater than the sum. Open Labs also reports 49 00:03:22,515 --> 00:03:26,595 Speaker 1: a seismic shift in a deep interior number in the polls. 50 00:03:26,915 --> 00:03:30,875 Speaker 1: In May, one quarter of Biden's twenty twenty voters surveyed 51 00:03:30,955 --> 00:03:35,115 Speaker 1: said he should drop out. Now open Labs reports the 52 00:03:35,195 --> 00:03:39,155 Speaker 1: number after the debate has ballooned to forty percent, forty 53 00:03:39,195 --> 00:03:42,395 Speaker 1: percent of those who supported Joe Biden in twenty twenty 54 00:03:43,115 --> 00:03:47,155 Speaker 1: telling them he should drop out. The company also surveyed 55 00:03:47,195 --> 00:03:50,315 Speaker 1: potential substitute candidates in the swing state the vice president, 56 00:03:50,315 --> 00:03:53,875 Speaker 1: Governor's Newsom and Wittner, and Secretary Buddhage Edge. And they 57 00:03:53,955 --> 00:03:57,755 Speaker 1: all Paul better than does Joe Biden against Trump. And 58 00:03:57,795 --> 00:04:01,315 Speaker 1: they all Paul better than Joe Biden does in all 59 00:04:02,075 --> 00:04:05,755 Speaker 1: of the swing states. There is also a c ann poll. 60 00:04:06,115 --> 00:04:08,595 Speaker 1: I'm not attaching nearly as much credibility to it as 61 00:04:08,635 --> 00:04:12,835 Speaker 1: I am to these open labs numbers, but it is confirmatory. 62 00:04:12,995 --> 00:04:16,395 Speaker 1: It says today, of all voters of all parties, three 63 00:04:16,515 --> 00:04:19,155 Speaker 1: quarters say the Democrats would have a better shot of 64 00:04:19,155 --> 00:04:21,635 Speaker 1: retaining the White House if somebody other than Biden runs. 65 00:04:22,675 --> 00:04:25,635 Speaker 1: Then there are the comments, and as I mentioned, principle 66 00:04:25,675 --> 00:04:30,475 Speaker 1: among them from Nancy Pelosi on MSNBC. I think it's 67 00:04:30,515 --> 00:04:34,955 Speaker 1: a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or 68 00:04:35,035 --> 00:04:38,675 Speaker 1: is this a condition? When people ask that question, it's 69 00:04:38,715 --> 00:04:43,635 Speaker 1: completely legitimate of both candidates. Pelosi went on to reveal 70 00:04:43,635 --> 00:04:46,275 Speaker 1: she has not spoken to the president, but quoting again, 71 00:04:46,635 --> 00:04:48,915 Speaker 1: it's not a question of not having an opportunity to 72 00:04:48,915 --> 00:04:53,435 Speaker 1: make our concerns known or have some questions answered. She 73 00:04:53,555 --> 00:04:57,395 Speaker 1: also says others are speaking, and their assessments conflict. Quote. 74 00:04:57,555 --> 00:05:00,715 Speaker 1: Some are alike, well, how can we subject the process 75 00:05:01,235 --> 00:05:05,715 Speaker 1: to what might be possible? Others are Joe is our guy. 76 00:05:05,875 --> 00:05:08,995 Speaker 1: We love him, we trust him. He has vision, knowledge, judgment, integrity. 77 00:05:09,115 --> 00:05:13,955 Speaker 1: I trust his judgment on quote. I don't think you 78 00:05:14,035 --> 00:05:16,795 Speaker 1: have to know Nancy Pelosi very well to know that 79 00:05:16,915 --> 00:05:19,595 Speaker 1: much of that sounds like code. I think it's a 80 00:05:19,675 --> 00:05:22,635 Speaker 1: legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is 81 00:05:22,675 --> 00:05:26,475 Speaker 1: this a condition? If there were anything she could say 82 00:05:26,875 --> 00:05:29,795 Speaker 1: that would do less to contain all of this, I 83 00:05:29,835 --> 00:05:33,955 Speaker 1: am hard pressed to guess what it could be. She 84 00:05:34,115 --> 00:05:38,355 Speaker 1: also talks about subjecting the nominating process to what might 85 00:05:38,435 --> 00:05:43,435 Speaker 1: be possible. And we have Jim Clyburn, one of Biden's 86 00:05:43,435 --> 00:05:47,195 Speaker 1: oldest and most loyal supporters, saying he quote will support 87 00:05:47,315 --> 00:05:52,675 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris if Biden steps aside. The Texas Congressman Lloyd 88 00:05:52,715 --> 00:05:56,475 Speaker 1: Doggett has explicitly today called for Biden to step aside. 89 00:05:56,675 --> 00:05:59,635 Speaker 1: Says that as the debate, instead of reassuring voters, the 90 00:05:59,675 --> 00:06:02,995 Speaker 1: president failed to effectively defend as many accomplishments and expose 91 00:06:03,035 --> 00:06:08,715 Speaker 1: Trump's many lies, and he should step away and to 92 00:06:08,835 --> 00:06:13,675 Speaker 1: add insult to last week's injury to democracy at his hands, 93 00:06:14,235 --> 00:06:18,355 Speaker 1: CNN Jake Tapper reported then partially retracted and changed a 94 00:06:18,435 --> 00:06:23,155 Speaker 1: story about a teleconference among Democratic governors Monday led by 95 00:06:23,195 --> 00:06:27,195 Speaker 1: Minnesota Tim Walls to discuss the ticket. He says, the 96 00:06:27,275 --> 00:06:29,315 Speaker 1: unnamed governors, we don't even know how many of them 97 00:06:29,355 --> 00:06:33,755 Speaker 1: there were were surprised to learn that the President had 98 00:06:33,795 --> 00:06:37,035 Speaker 1: spoken to none of them. Yet there now will be 99 00:06:37,395 --> 00:06:39,875 Speaker 1: some kind of meeting with the governors and the White House, 100 00:06:40,035 --> 00:06:45,555 Speaker 1: presumably with the President tomorrow and the last thrust of 101 00:06:45,715 --> 00:06:50,235 Speaker 1: history's dagger. Experts at the Campaign Legal Center are telling 102 00:06:50,235 --> 00:06:54,195 Speaker 1: the website The American Prospect that if Biden does withdraw, 103 00:06:54,715 --> 00:06:56,955 Speaker 1: then there is only one way for the new nominee 104 00:06:56,955 --> 00:07:00,875 Speaker 1: and the Democratic Party to smoothly spend all the money 105 00:07:01,315 --> 00:07:04,475 Speaker 1: that has been raised by the Biden for President campaign committee, 106 00:07:04,355 --> 00:07:06,515 Speaker 1: and as of May thirty one, that was two hundred 107 00:07:06,555 --> 00:07:10,075 Speaker 1: and twenty million dollars, another thirty three million raised since 108 00:07:10,115 --> 00:07:13,475 Speaker 1: the debate, probably much more in the coffers. The only 109 00:07:13,555 --> 00:07:18,795 Speaker 1: way that committee could seamlessly spend all that money without restrictions, 110 00:07:18,835 --> 00:07:23,635 Speaker 1: without firewalls, without labyrinths, spend it on the new candidate 111 00:07:23,835 --> 00:07:29,955 Speaker 1: is if the new candidate is Vice President Harris. As 112 00:07:29,995 --> 00:07:32,875 Speaker 1: to the other thing I suggested about Biden possibly actually 113 00:07:32,955 --> 00:07:36,395 Speaker 1: leaving office, that is a pure hunch on my part, 114 00:07:37,195 --> 00:07:40,475 Speaker 1: built out of several ideas, primarily the one that if 115 00:07:40,475 --> 00:07:43,075 Speaker 1: the President were to agree or be convinced that he 116 00:07:43,195 --> 00:07:45,955 Speaker 1: has to bow out of the ticket now that he 117 00:07:45,995 --> 00:07:50,995 Speaker 1: would also see the almost priceless value of immediately attaching 118 00:07:51,035 --> 00:07:59,635 Speaker 1: the title of the incumbent to Kamala Harris's name. Running 119 00:07:59,675 --> 00:08:02,955 Speaker 1: as the president instead of as the vice president, Kamala 120 00:08:03,035 --> 00:08:07,435 Speaker 1: Harris's support would necessarily rise by how much is entirely speculative? 121 00:08:07,995 --> 00:08:11,795 Speaker 1: How much does it need to be? Obviously I said 122 00:08:11,835 --> 00:08:14,675 Speaker 1: here in the latest full podcast on Tuesday morning. It 123 00:08:14,755 --> 00:08:18,235 Speaker 1: is also inarguable that if the president has to drop 124 00:08:18,275 --> 00:08:21,035 Speaker 1: out because he is not up to discharging the office 125 00:08:21,195 --> 00:08:24,795 Speaker 1: six months and eighteen days from now, he's probably not 126 00:08:25,075 --> 00:08:31,155 Speaker 1: up to discharging the office right now either. The argument 127 00:08:31,515 --> 00:08:35,995 Speaker 1: for not resigning but leaving the ticket is more ethereal 128 00:08:36,155 --> 00:08:41,795 Speaker 1: more philosophical. Could Joe Biden staying in office while withdrawing 129 00:08:41,795 --> 00:08:45,755 Speaker 1: from the ticket ennoble this process. Here is the man 130 00:08:45,835 --> 00:08:48,835 Speaker 1: giving up the most powerful position in the world, the 131 00:08:48,875 --> 00:08:51,995 Speaker 1: man who beat Trump, giving up the office he spent 132 00:08:52,195 --> 00:08:55,715 Speaker 1: his entire life trying to reach, and giving it up 133 00:08:55,995 --> 00:09:01,915 Speaker 1: solely to ensure that America beats Trump again. And here 134 00:09:02,355 --> 00:09:06,795 Speaker 1: standing beside him is the public servant, the vice president, 135 00:09:06,835 --> 00:09:13,515 Speaker 1: who he has selected and who he now endorses. Is 136 00:09:13,555 --> 00:09:17,275 Speaker 1: that worth her not being the incumbent in November again? 137 00:09:17,755 --> 00:09:20,115 Speaker 1: There is plenty of new material on the table to 138 00:09:20,235 --> 00:09:23,755 Speaker 1: sift through. Nothing has happened. I don't believe anything will 139 00:09:23,795 --> 00:09:31,795 Speaker 1: happen imminently. I'm just saying the vibe changed. My vibe changed. 140 00:09:32,355 --> 00:09:34,355 Speaker 1: I'll be back with the regular edition of the podcast 141 00:09:34,475 --> 00:09:38,035 Speaker 1: late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning to assess the new 142 00:09:38,075 --> 00:09:41,075 Speaker 1: material on the table and what could be new developments 143 00:09:41,075 --> 00:09:43,955 Speaker 1: in the rest of the day. And again my caveat, 144 00:09:43,995 --> 00:09:47,115 Speaker 1: this is an assessment. This is the kind of recalculation 145 00:09:47,395 --> 00:09:50,235 Speaker 1: you go through in your head as you judge anything 146 00:09:50,315 --> 00:09:53,915 Speaker 1: that has one hundred factors in it, or you look 147 00:09:53,955 --> 00:09:57,355 Speaker 1: at a patient or a job and say, I don't 148 00:09:57,355 --> 00:09:59,795 Speaker 1: think this is going to last much longer. There is 149 00:09:59,915 --> 00:10:02,995 Speaker 1: no source reporting behind what I am saying. I take 150 00:10:03,035 --> 00:10:06,075 Speaker 1: no pride whatsoever in saying any of it. I just 151 00:10:06,115 --> 00:10:08,595 Speaker 1: think that while it is my job here to express 152 00:10:08,635 --> 00:10:11,635 Speaker 1: opinions and try to influence events, as unlikely as that 153 00:10:11,715 --> 00:10:15,915 Speaker 1: really is, my primary purpose is to tell you what 154 00:10:16,195 --> 00:10:20,115 Speaker 1: is fact, what I have heard, and just as importantly, 155 00:10:20,475 --> 00:10:25,235 Speaker 1: what my assessment of all these facts and hearings is. 156 00:10:25,835 --> 00:10:29,235 Speaker 1: And my assessment is Joe Biden will leave the ticket, 157 00:10:29,915 --> 00:10:33,715 Speaker 1: presumably not imminently. Let me close with the perfect phrasing, 158 00:10:33,755 --> 00:10:35,835 Speaker 1: but exactly what I feel is going on today, and 159 00:10:35,875 --> 00:10:37,915 Speaker 1: it is from my friend for more than half a century, 160 00:10:38,075 --> 00:10:39,955 Speaker 1: from the days when I was the editor in chief 161 00:10:39,995 --> 00:10:42,955 Speaker 1: and he was my ace news reporter on our high 162 00:10:42,995 --> 00:10:47,955 Speaker 1: school newspaper, Will Bunch of the Philadelphia Inquirer. It does feel, 163 00:10:48,355 --> 00:10:54,275 Speaker 1: Will says, like an energy shift in the force. This 164 00:10:54,315 --> 00:11:05,275 Speaker 1: has been a countdown bulletin podcast. I'm Keith Olrumantown with 165 00:11:05,395 --> 00:11:09,675 Speaker 1: Keith Olderman is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts 166 00:11:09,715 --> 00:11:14,435 Speaker 1: from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever 167 00:11:14,515 --> 00:11:15,835 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts.