WEBVTT - Coronavirus Impact on IT Spending

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>only on Bloomberg Radio. Carol, we are keeping an eye on, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>everything related to the health side of this. No one

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<v Speaker 1>is following it more closely at Bloomberg than Drew Armstrong.

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<v Speaker 1>He leaves all of our health coverage here in the US.

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<v Speaker 1>He is spearheading a massive team that is coming at

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<v Speaker 1>this from all angles. He joins us on the phone today, Drew,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you hey, guys? Um, greetings from the suburbs

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<v Speaker 1>of New York City. I'm too and well good good um.

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<v Speaker 1>So tell us what's the one thing we need to

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<v Speaker 1>know today? I mean, you're seeing all of this so

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<v Speaker 1>in depth. What do we need to know, based on

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<v Speaker 1>what we've heard from public officials, what you're hearing from

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<v Speaker 1>health officials, and sort of squaring that with maybe this

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<v Speaker 1>market enthusiasm. Yeah, And I think the big thing that

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<v Speaker 1>people are watching right now, and this has really been,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the thing to watch all along is what

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<v Speaker 1>are we seeing in new US cases in the various

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<v Speaker 1>outbreaks here, And that's I want to be clear, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the number of new cases is a leading indicator,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's also a very imperfect one just because of

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<v Speaker 1>the significant problems in the US with broad comprehensive testing

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<v Speaker 1>for this disease you would like to do. I'm sure

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of your listeners have read stories, many of

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<v Speaker 1>them written by us, about some of the problems with

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<v Speaker 1>getting enough test out they are getting everybody tested and

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<v Speaker 1>who needs to be tested and so on and so forth.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, right now, as a leading indicator, it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the best thing that we have right now.

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<v Speaker 1>And we've seen a number of, you know, indications that

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<v Speaker 1>in New York and New Jersey, which are two of

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<v Speaker 1>the hottest outbreaks going on in the United States, that

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<v Speaker 1>new infections imperfectly counted as they may be, appear to

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<v Speaker 1>be slowing, and that, you know is overall good news

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of when can some of these restrictions on

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<v Speaker 1>movement and on business being open and on people having

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<v Speaker 1>to stay home begin to be loosened. There are a

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<v Speaker 1>ton of caveats attached to that, but if you were

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<v Speaker 1>looking for good news, this does feel to be a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of that right. Global cases topping one point

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<v Speaker 1>thirty nine million deaths succeeding seventy nine thousand. Those are

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<v Speaker 1>the latest numbers from John's Hopkins. You know, you speak

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<v Speaker 1>of um imperfect models. Drew is China the model from

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<v Speaker 1>a health case basis the right model to be looking

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of the trajectory. You know, I think there

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<v Speaker 1>are some things that China tells us and some things

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<v Speaker 1>that don't. There's there's two ways to think about, Like

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<v Speaker 1>when we look at what happened in China and will Hunt,

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen the exact theme dynamic play out in other

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<v Speaker 1>locations around the world. You know, I mean and I

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<v Speaker 1>and I and I mean that from the standpoint that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there are some significant screw ups and then

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<v Speaker 1>problems and then consequences that happened there that has happened

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<v Speaker 1>everywhere else. I mean you know, first in China, we

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<v Speaker 1>had basically the authorities say, hey, this isn't that big

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<v Speaker 1>of a deal. We have this well in hand, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they were even saying it doesn't appear to

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<v Speaker 1>be human human transmission. And then we entered a period

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<v Speaker 1>where they didn't really have enough testing capacity, and so

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<v Speaker 1>it seemed like cases will only rising a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>But in fact we had no idea how big the

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<v Speaker 1>outbreak was there because they didn't have great testing capacity.

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<v Speaker 1>Then all of a sudden they got it. Cases exploded,

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<v Speaker 1>and then by the time that happened, the healthcare system

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<v Speaker 1>in Wuhan got overwhelmed and they had to build immense

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<v Speaker 1>new capacity. They had a lot of excess death. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Those that's exactly what happened in Italy. Um, that's a

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's very similar what happened in the United States. Mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we had, you know, federal leadership here that was saying,

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<v Speaker 1>this is well contained, it's not that big of a deal,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we had a massive problem with testing and

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<v Speaker 1>then all of a sudden this thing was out of

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<v Speaker 1>the list. I mean, we've seen the same exact dynamic

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<v Speaker 1>play out. Um. What I think the lessons we can't

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<v Speaker 1>take away from from China. Are you know, one, they

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<v Speaker 1>did a lockdown that I think would never be allowed

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<v Speaker 1>in a democracy period. I mean, people were physically unable

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<v Speaker 1>to leave their homes. In many cases, there were reports

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<v Speaker 1>of house to house searches to find six people and

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<v Speaker 1>um haul them off to quarantine centers. Um. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>it may look similar in some respects, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>that there are some aspects of that that were much

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<v Speaker 1>more um uh severe. And you know the other issues

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<v Speaker 1>that we've seen reports from you know, the US intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>community that they appeared to significantly undercounted, um or underrepresented

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<v Speaker 1>the severity of the of the outbreak there. And so

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<v Speaker 1>I think we still have some missing pieces of information

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<v Speaker 1>from China, uh that we really don't know how that

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<v Speaker 1>it was, and that may have influenced how the world

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<v Speaker 1>thought about this disease as well. I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>academics and healthcare folks, they're they're early understanding this thing

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<v Speaker 1>was really relied upon by what we heard coming out

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<v Speaker 1>of China, and it's possible that we got a very

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<v Speaker 1>imperfect picture of that. So, Drew, we were just talking

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<v Speaker 1>with our colleague Sarah Ponzac, you know, well, uh just

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<v Speaker 1>a few minutes ago. She drove from New York to

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<v Speaker 1>Florida over the past few days, and you know, painted

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<v Speaker 1>a picture for US of a country, as you know

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<v Speaker 1>very well, that is very uneven in its response. As

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<v Speaker 1>you talked to bureau chiefs, your reporters across the country.

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<v Speaker 1>What's this sense you're getting of the US response which

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<v Speaker 1>feels sort of checkered at best. I think there's something

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<v Speaker 1>that you you all have to understand about the response here.

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<v Speaker 1>And I and I say that I and I agree

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<v Speaker 1>with you as the response is checkered. But also you know,

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<v Speaker 1>outbreaks are local disease commission happened locally. It is a

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<v Speaker 1>person to person phenomenon, and so you know it is

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<v Speaker 1>when we talk about a US response, UM, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think there should be you know, it doesn't feel like

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<v Speaker 1>there should be homogenevy. And that's just because that's not

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<v Speaker 1>how it works. I mean, neither are These are responses

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<v Speaker 1>that need to be locally calibrated. And one thing that

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there has been quite a quite a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of criticism of the federal government in its response to this,

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, a response that's appropriate in New York,

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<v Speaker 1>where we have hundred forty thousand almost cases confirmed so far,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe very very different than a what a response looks

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<v Speaker 1>like in Wyoming, which you know, doesn't have a massive

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<v Speaker 1>subway system where everybody's holding the same pole and shared

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<v Speaker 1>cars and you know, close confines and things like that. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, responses are almost inevitably going to be appropriate

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<v Speaker 1>to the local situation, even if they do share some

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<v Speaker 1>um some commonalities throughout aspects of social distancing and things

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<v Speaker 1>like that, in order to avoid spreading cases. But in

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<v Speaker 1>urban location is gonna be really different than a rural one. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>A dense city is going to be very you know,

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<v Speaker 1>dense public transportation city is going to be very different

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<v Speaker 1>from a car are driven city. So, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that when we talk about a patchwork, I think

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<v Speaker 1>in some cases, you know, that is appropriate. I think

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<v Speaker 1>what you don't want to see is a patchwork of

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<v Speaker 1>how seriously people take it or how closely they you know,

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<v Speaker 1>follow the expert recommendations that are being given to them

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<v Speaker 1>based on those circumstances. Hey, just quickly, you know you

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<v Speaker 1>write about treatment versus cure? Is it the race for

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<v Speaker 1>a treatment versus the race for a cure for the

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<v Speaker 1>virus helping or complicating the US and the world's ability

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<v Speaker 1>to get on top of all of this. Well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a really important dynamic that you that you bring up,

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<v Speaker 1>because in reality, a cure here in almost certainly does

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<v Speaker 1>not mean, you know, a drug that eliminates, that just

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<v Speaker 1>kills off the virus. We have we have cured. We

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<v Speaker 1>have cured in the in the true sense, one virus ever,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's hepatitis c UM. So it's you know, humanity

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<v Speaker 1>one UH viruses a whole lot more than that. However,

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<v Speaker 1>we're pretty good at developing vaccines, and our own immune

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<v Speaker 1>systems are a relatively good at at pushing back some

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<v Speaker 1>of these infections, and so when we talk about cure,

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<v Speaker 1>we should really be talking about vaccines. UM. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>therapeutics are are are in all likelihood going to be

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<v Speaker 1>the type of things that are used for people who

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<v Speaker 1>are sick enough to be in the hospital and need them. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>You don't need to be administering therapeutics UM in all

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<v Speaker 1>likelihood to people who are experiencing the you know, relatively mild,

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<v Speaker 1>if extremely unpleasant version of this. You know, the body

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<v Speaker 1>patients from what we've seen so far, are recovering from

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<v Speaker 1>this disease more or less on their own. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>some of those books are getting hospitalizing and are getting

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<v Speaker 1>supportive care, and some of that can be quite intense.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, I think that when we think about

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<v Speaker 1>how therapeutics, what the role therapeutics are gonna play, it's

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<v Speaker 1>probably going to be for some of the people who

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<v Speaker 1>are the most most severe folks and in most in

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<v Speaker 1>need of medical attention. And so when you're talking to

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<v Speaker 1>your medical folks, Drew Armstrong, what are they saying about

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<v Speaker 1>this whole push within the administration or at least in

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<v Speaker 1>corners of the administration around this time? Llaria drug which

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<v Speaker 1>I will not try and pronounce, Uh, that is certainly

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<v Speaker 1>catching on in at least rhetorically with the president. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so that drug and hydroxy chloroquine. It's an old malaria drug, listen.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, if you look around at the evidence,

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<v Speaker 1>it's extremely limited. Um, there haven't really been redoubts from

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<v Speaker 1>any meaningful trial that tells you whether or not this

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<v Speaker 1>thing actually works. People say, you know, hey, we gave

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<v Speaker 1>this to temptatients and they all got better, Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>or a lot of them got better, or you know,

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<v Speaker 1>six out of ten of them got better in the

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<v Speaker 1>reality is that most people do get better on their own.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the data on this has been extremely checkery.

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<v Speaker 1>There's been a lot of christmatism of these studies. There

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<v Speaker 1>has not been a large conclusive study that tests this

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<v Speaker 1>drug against a placebo Um. You know, President Trump has

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<v Speaker 1>faced pushed back from the stage by people like um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know Dr Tony Faucci, who's ahead of the sub

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<v Speaker 1>unit of the of the NH. There's just very very

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<v Speaker 1>little evidence right now in support is if it works,

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<v Speaker 1>that's fantastic news. I think, you know, one of the

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<v Speaker 1>things that we hear over and over and over again

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<v Speaker 1>from the people though who are developing these drugs is

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<v Speaker 1>you need to find out what actually does work. And

0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:14.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, having a system where we let everyone try

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<v Speaker 1>everything without any proof whatsoever muddies the waters terribly, puts

0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:23.160
<v Speaker 1>people on therapies that may or may not work, and

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<v Speaker 1>excludes them from therapies that may that we that actually

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<v Speaker 1>may and it it it makes it much harder for

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<v Speaker 1>us to get an answer on what works here, what

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<v Speaker 1>is going to help the most number of people to

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<v Speaker 1>get that answer quickly and then to get people onto

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<v Speaker 1>those drugs. So Um, there is a There is an

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<v Speaker 1>urging inside the scientific community to do this the right way. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you want to you want to give people

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<v Speaker 1>hope and you want to give people care, but you

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<v Speaker 1>also want to give people something that works and that's

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<v Speaker 1>backed by evidence. So we don't waste their you know,

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<v Speaker 1>their medical opportunities, their time, their money, all of those things, um,

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<v Speaker 1>while while testing you know, while while trying therapies that

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<v Speaker 1>don't have an effect, and right. We want to get

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<v Speaker 1>it right because we also don't want to see any

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<v Speaker 1>kind of relapse of an outbreak. You know. One thing

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<v Speaker 1>I want to ask you, Drew is and this was

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<v Speaker 1>based on a conversation Jason I had yesterday, you know

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<v Speaker 1>where one of our guests said, basically, we're not gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be able to get back to work fully or you know,

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<v Speaker 1>embrace kind of our social lives like we used to

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<v Speaker 1>like big stadiums until we get a vaccine. Is that

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<v Speaker 1>the case? I think that's probably you know, there are

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<v Speaker 1>definitely aspects to that. I think you're you know, think

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<v Speaker 1>about your own lives and you know, if if someone

0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.480
<v Speaker 1>if Governor Cuomo or President Frum said, hey, you know

0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:37.440
<v Speaker 1>we've mostly got the all clear, there's some circulating. I

0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:39.800
<v Speaker 1>don't know if you know how many people would necessarily

0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.680
<v Speaker 1>hop right out to a restaurant, you know, start hugging

0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:44.720
<v Speaker 1>and you know, shaking hands with people they haven't seen

0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:47.319
<v Speaker 1>in months, you know, grab the subway pole, getting a taxicab,

0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:48.920
<v Speaker 1>go back to work. I think this is going to

0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:52.320
<v Speaker 1>take time. You know. One thing that vaccines are are

0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:55.000
<v Speaker 1>good at also is you know, is creating a level

0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.160
<v Speaker 1>of certainty and comfort. Um. You know, people want to

0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:02.400
<v Speaker 1>know not only have we successfully pushed back this disease

0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:04.560
<v Speaker 1>into a small or smaller and smaller and smaller number

0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:07.920
<v Speaker 1>of people through the social distancing measures and the mitigation measures,

0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:11.079
<v Speaker 1>but also that you know, even if they are struck

0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:13.079
<v Speaker 1>by it, that they are you know that they or

0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.040
<v Speaker 1>they are exposed to it, that they're protective. I think

0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:19.160
<v Speaker 1>a vaccine is pretty crucial in all likelihood and creating

0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:23.440
<v Speaker 1>that level of confidence just from a personal comfort standpoint.

0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:27.800
<v Speaker 1>And Drew, what about this notion of the antibody test,

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.679
<v Speaker 1>How realistic is that? Because that's something that a lot

0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:33.040
<v Speaker 1>of folks that I've been talking to even casually are

0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.520
<v Speaker 1>saying that could be something that sort of helps spur

0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:40.959
<v Speaker 1>us back to work or back into something resembling normal life. Yeah,

0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:44.360
<v Speaker 1>it's theoretically a very very interesting idea. And if it's

0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:47.560
<v Speaker 1>perfect and if it's perfectly accurate, you know, which is

0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:50.439
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily given. Let's be really clear here. You can

0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:53.080
<v Speaker 1>have all of these tests comes when tend to come

0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.360
<v Speaker 1>with some level of false positives or false negatives. And

0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:58.240
<v Speaker 1>one of the things that you know, critics of this

0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:01.600
<v Speaker 1>idea say is that, well, you know, if two percent

0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.080
<v Speaker 1>of the population has it, you know, or ten percent

0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:06.839
<v Speaker 1>of the population has it, and the false positive rate

0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:09.559
<v Speaker 1>on these antibody tests, which you know, these are detections

0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:11.720
<v Speaker 1>of did you at some point have this virus and

0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:14.200
<v Speaker 1>might you now have some level of immunity? You know,

0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:18.080
<v Speaker 1>if your rate of the disease in society is anywhere

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:21.199
<v Speaker 1>close to the false positive rate on your trial, you

0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:23.720
<v Speaker 1>might run, you know, you might run these antibody tests

0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:27.360
<v Speaker 1>on ten thousand people and say, you know, well, hey,

0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.239
<v Speaker 1>we found you know, x number of people who are positives.

0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:32.760
<v Speaker 1>These people, you know, presumably they're immune, but it might

0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 1>just be that, you know, those are the people who

0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:37.719
<v Speaker 1>are who are the false positives in your test, And

0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 1>what you're detecting isn't people who are immune but just

0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:43.880
<v Speaker 1>erroneous test um. So I think they're going to be

0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:45.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think one of the things that we

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:47.360
<v Speaker 1>people do think that they're going to be quite useful

0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:51.520
<v Speaker 1>for is measuring the prevalence of this disease, especially in

0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 1>places that have had a lot of it like New York, um,

0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:57.040
<v Speaker 1>and where I think it may be, you know where

0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.079
<v Speaker 1>I think it. It remains to be seen how useful

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.040
<v Speaker 1>it is is going to be on a purely individual basis,

0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:04.240
<v Speaker 1>And I think to do that, you're going to need

0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.880
<v Speaker 1>a level of certainty about the accuracy of these and

0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:09.960
<v Speaker 1>that is something that you know that that we know

0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:12.439
<v Speaker 1>people are looking at now. I mean you obviously there

0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:15.600
<v Speaker 1>is a desire to have this be as accurate as possible,

0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:18.320
<v Speaker 1>so you can get exactly the type of answers about, Hey,

0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:20.440
<v Speaker 1>do I have some level of community here? Can I

0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:22.680
<v Speaker 1>go back to work? You know? Did I have this?

0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:25.560
<v Speaker 1>And was I perhaps mildly symptomatical? Was that you know

0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:27.760
<v Speaker 1>the thing that I thought was flew back in February

0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 1>in fact this Those are the types of questions that

0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:33.080
<v Speaker 1>you can get answers to if these tests are accurate enough. Right,

0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:36.560
<v Speaker 1>you are are rock star, No doubt about it. Drew Armstrong,

0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:38.680
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. It is a must read on

0:14:38.720 --> 0:14:41.040
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal and also at Bloomberg dot com, so

0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:44.080
<v Speaker 1>everyone should check it out. Drew Armstrong busy, busy guy

0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:46.560
<v Speaker 1>and his team. He is the team leader for US Healthcare,

0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 1>a Bloomberg News joining us once again on the phone

0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:50.800
<v Speaker 1>from New York City. I always feel like I get

0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>clarity after I talk to Drew. Listen, I've told the

0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:55.320
<v Speaker 1>entire New York hereau of this that when we look

0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:57.880
<v Speaker 1>back on this, Drew Armstrong is going to be the

0:14:57.920 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 1>hero and all of it. I mean, the way he's

0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:03.560
<v Speaker 1>coordinated to the coverage has just been unbelievable and highly

0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:06.680
<v Speaker 1>highly recommend and we talked about this, we recommended all

0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.160
<v Speaker 1>the time. If you go to Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus,

0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:11.840
<v Speaker 1>you will get all of his team's coverage and much more. Uh,

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:15.560
<v Speaker 1>it's it's a great destination. You're listening to Bloomberg Business

0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:19.680
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messer and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.

0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about a story that is in the magazine. Well,

0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:26.960
<v Speaker 1>and it's not just a story, it's a book. Carol,

0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:30.120
<v Speaker 1>I can't I've been so excited for this book to

0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:32.600
<v Speaker 1>come out. Sarah Fryer wrote it. It's called No Filter,

0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:36.680
<v Speaker 1>It's about Instagram. There's a fantastic excerpt in the magazine

0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:40.120
<v Speaker 1>this week. Can't get enough of it. Uh, Sarah joins

0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.040
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from San Francisco. First of all, congratulations,

0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:46.320
<v Speaker 1>this is an amazing, amazing accomplishment. How are you feeling?

0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:50.160
<v Speaker 1>I feel good? I mean it. This is what was

0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:53.040
<v Speaker 1>crazy to me about this story is just how much

0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:57.520
<v Speaker 1>of it hadn't been hadn't been uncovered, And so I'm

0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:00.760
<v Speaker 1>really excited to share the first experts today. Also feel

0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.160
<v Speaker 1>like there's there's so much that people will be able

0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:07.479
<v Speaker 1>to learn about, not just the tension between Instagram and Facebook,

0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:12.240
<v Speaker 1>but also Instagram's cultural impact on our world. So I

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.200
<v Speaker 1>want to also bring in Joe Webber, of course, editor

0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:17.000
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. He's on the phone from Brooklyn. I mean,

0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:19.680
<v Speaker 1>this is such you know, it's a great we know,

0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.320
<v Speaker 1>a great book already, Uh, and you've got an excerpt

0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 1>in the magazine, but it is such a Business Week

0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:27.560
<v Speaker 1>story as well. We've been following Instagram and Facebook and

0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:30.080
<v Speaker 1>kind of I just want to say the strife between

0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:35.160
<v Speaker 1>the two Joe. Yeah, I am so excited for Sarah. Um.

0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:37.640
<v Speaker 1>I think this book is just going to be amazing.

0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:40.320
<v Speaker 1>And I was really honored to be able to publish

0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:43.520
<v Speaker 1>um this particular excerpt because I think it really shows

0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:48.000
<v Speaker 1>a side of Instagram and Facebook that you know, we've

0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:51.120
<v Speaker 1>just no one's really seen it like this before. And

0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:55.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, Instagram was this little darling app just barely

0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 1>a decade ago, and you know, it just looks like

0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:02.000
<v Speaker 1>this bargain that Mark Zuckerberg happened to pick up for

0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:06.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, pennies, and now he's turned it into a

0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:09.439
<v Speaker 1>major cash cow that is part of this family of

0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.480
<v Speaker 1>apps that he's built at Facebook. But in order to

0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:15.399
<v Speaker 1>get there, along the way, there was a lot of

0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:18.879
<v Speaker 1>internal stripes and tension, and that's ultimately what Sarah was

0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:20.879
<v Speaker 1>able to bring to light in this particular part of

0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:24.399
<v Speaker 1>our excerpt. And Um, Sarah, you know, like there's this

0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:29.119
<v Speaker 1>pastry that makes an appearance and I just asked you,

0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:35.800
<v Speaker 1>this is what what is uh? What is the cruffin? Oh,

0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:39.359
<v Speaker 1>It's it's the San Francisco version of the Rainbow bagel. Basically,

0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:44.119
<v Speaker 1>it's it's a it's a crispant muffin and it plays

0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:49.880
<v Speaker 1>the launch event for Instagram TV. This this launch event

0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:52.920
<v Speaker 1>was like the most Instagram a little thing possible. They

0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:58.520
<v Speaker 1>had Assay e Bols and Macho Late's and UM at

0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:01.520
<v Speaker 1>a Tistor event in New York have like champagne filled

0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:07.520
<v Speaker 1>this cotton candy. Uh really. I use that events as

0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:11.760
<v Speaker 1>an example to show the contract between Instagram and Facebook.

0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:17.480
<v Speaker 1>Instagram is really about UM presenting your life as this

0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:23.320
<v Speaker 1>this beautiful, manicured version, and Facebook is about this building

0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:28.960
<v Speaker 1>your network and having friend connections, and the philosophies of

0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:32.080
<v Speaker 1>the two products really aligned with the founders and what

0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:36.399
<v Speaker 1>kind of people they are. Zuckerberg being this dominant force

0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:42.200
<v Speaker 1>trying to win over more and more of of humanity's attention,

0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:46.800
<v Speaker 1>and Instagram trying to create a place where you know,

0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:52.200
<v Speaker 1>culture can be appreciated and people can become uh, become

0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:58.120
<v Speaker 1>recognized for their own brands and so so eventually these

0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:03.320
<v Speaker 1>two clash, and when they're announcing I DTV in twenty team,

0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:07.280
<v Speaker 1>that was a moment for System realizing that Instagram wasn't

0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:12.920
<v Speaker 1>really going to be allowed to thrive without without Zuckerberg's

0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:16.639
<v Speaker 1>intense involvement in every step of the way, which is

0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:19.600
<v Speaker 1>very different than the independence the company rejected in the past.

0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:25.320
<v Speaker 1>And and Mark Zuckerberg, I mean you really tease out

0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:29.560
<v Speaker 1>some sort of personality conflicts too, that Ivious had huge

0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:32.480
<v Speaker 1>business applications as you're alluding to, Uh, Sarah, I would

0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:36.000
<v Speaker 1>imagine there's much more in the book about this, because

0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:38.399
<v Speaker 1>that was sort of the the key point of tension

0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:42.960
<v Speaker 1>that Carol alluded to at the top of the conversation. Yeah,

0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:48.000
<v Speaker 1>Zuckerberg is is all about winning. He He's not about

0:19:48.080 --> 0:19:52.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, being careful and and having um, you know,

0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:54.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of attention to detail and so and so

0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:56.840
<v Speaker 1>we see that play out in their product strategy. Means

0:19:56.880 --> 0:20:00.520
<v Speaker 1>Zuckerberg tried a million different things to counter the rise

0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:05.320
<v Speaker 1>of Snapchat. Instagram tried one and it worked and and

0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:11.320
<v Speaker 1>I think that uh, eventually, when Instagram's growth actually accelerated

0:20:11.359 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 1>after copying Snapchat stories, Zuckerberg saw a threat to Facebook.

0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:20.119
<v Speaker 1>He saw that the Instagram way of doing things was

0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:25.120
<v Speaker 1>gaining popularity, maybe at the expense of Facebook's longevity. And

0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:30.480
<v Speaker 1>being the dominating force that he is and really caring

0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:35.159
<v Speaker 1>about his flagship products, he started talking about cannibalization, the

0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:40.040
<v Speaker 1>idea that Instagram success would eat into Facebook potential and

0:20:40.200 --> 0:20:43.440
<v Speaker 1>started driving the fingers away right and a pact basically

0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:48.720
<v Speaker 1>his baby Facebook. Like, it's just it's really phenomenal. Um, Sarah, congratulations,

0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:51.000
<v Speaker 1>were so excited for you. The book is No Filter,

0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:54.320
<v Speaker 1>the inside story of Instagram. Check out the book, check

0:20:54.320 --> 0:20:57.240
<v Speaker 1>out the excerpt that is in the magazine. This week,

0:20:57.480 --> 0:21:01.080
<v Speaker 1>you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and

0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:04.879
<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well, companies, as we know,

0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:08.520
<v Speaker 1>are retrenching. We talk about cutting back on spending, letting

0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:11.879
<v Speaker 1>go of workers, stopping buy backs and conserving cash and

0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:14.280
<v Speaker 1>cutting costs in light of the virus. Here with what

0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:16.720
<v Speaker 1>that means for I T spending, the good and the bad.

0:21:16.800 --> 0:21:21.040
<v Speaker 1>Crawford del Perette his president of I DC Research Xerox

0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:23.439
<v Speaker 1>or I d C forgive me I d C, and

0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:27.800
<v Speaker 1>he's on the phone from Framingham, Massachusetts. UM, nice to

0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:30.000
<v Speaker 1>have you back with us. Crawford talked to us a

0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:32.800
<v Speaker 1>little bit about UM I T spending because we do

0:21:32.880 --> 0:21:36.199
<v Speaker 1>know companies are retrenching. Any kind of early data that

0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:40.760
<v Speaker 1>you guys are seeing, yeah, absolutely, thanks for having me, Carol. Um,

0:21:40.880 --> 0:21:43.639
<v Speaker 1>so there is some early data. I mean, this has

0:21:43.680 --> 0:21:46.760
<v Speaker 1>been an extraordinary set of circumstances that we've seen. So

0:21:46.800 --> 0:21:50.400
<v Speaker 1>we were looking at an I T market UH last year. UM,

0:21:50.440 --> 0:21:53.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, you're looking at a market that is growing

0:21:53.040 --> 0:21:56.080
<v Speaker 1>in excess of UH two years ago, excess five percent

0:21:56.200 --> 0:21:59.239
<v Speaker 1>last year, excess in n SS of almost five per

0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:02.080
<v Speaker 1>so for point eight percent in January this year, we're

0:22:02.119 --> 0:22:04.959
<v Speaker 1>forecasting a market to grow about five point one percent.

0:22:05.240 --> 0:22:07.680
<v Speaker 1>We've taken that down to the I T market will

0:22:07.720 --> 0:22:11.320
<v Speaker 1>shrink by almost three percent this year, down about two

0:22:11.400 --> 0:22:14.760
<v Speaker 1>point seven percent. And that's based on a GDP forecast

0:22:14.840 --> 0:22:18.080
<v Speaker 1>of about a two percent decline, which is not uncommon

0:22:18.119 --> 0:22:20.679
<v Speaker 1>where I T tends to UM, you know, get stalled.

0:22:20.720 --> 0:22:23.040
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of tangible things that you can stop buying,

0:22:23.359 --> 0:22:27.280
<v Speaker 1>and then you you tend to see a slap down. UM.

0:22:27.359 --> 0:22:30.480
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of characteristics here that are different and

0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:32.879
<v Speaker 1>UH different from say the cycle that we saw in

0:22:32.920 --> 0:22:35.600
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and eight, UH in two thousand nine, where

0:22:35.640 --> 0:22:37.760
<v Speaker 1>we think this might be a little bit less severe.

0:22:38.040 --> 0:22:41.919
<v Speaker 1>But for sure, we've seen a huge a huge readjust

0:22:42.000 --> 0:22:44.560
<v Speaker 1>and and not surprisingly we're seeing it across the board,

0:22:44.560 --> 0:22:46.840
<v Speaker 1>but of course we're seeing it in the vertical segments.

0:22:46.840 --> 0:22:52.280
<v Speaker 1>The industry segments like hospitality, transportation, um man, parts of manufacturing.

0:22:52.440 --> 0:22:55.199
<v Speaker 1>But we're also seeing it in the category you were

0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:57.280
<v Speaker 1>just talking about, which is the small and medium business,

0:22:57.400 --> 0:23:00.000
<v Speaker 1>particularly the emerging companies, where they just need a lockdown,

0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:03.200
<v Speaker 1>own all their expenses and really try to go into

0:23:03.200 --> 0:23:05.720
<v Speaker 1>survival mode a bit until we get through this well.

0:23:05.760 --> 0:23:07.680
<v Speaker 1>And survival mode is exactly where I was going to

0:23:07.760 --> 0:23:10.719
<v Speaker 1>go next, Crawford, you and spend it so beautifully. You know,

0:23:10.880 --> 0:23:13.320
<v Speaker 1>this notion that you had a lot of companies and

0:23:13.560 --> 0:23:15.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think our company would fall into this

0:23:15.640 --> 0:23:20.240
<v Speaker 1>category who probably did some I wouldn't call it panic spending,

0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:23.400
<v Speaker 1>but some unexpected spending to get everybody set up and

0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:26.440
<v Speaker 1>sort of get people in a place where they could

0:23:26.520 --> 0:23:31.119
<v Speaker 1>continue operating and and if not blowing budgets, at least

0:23:31.160 --> 0:23:35.119
<v Speaker 1>reallocating things. And I wonder how long that takes to

0:23:35.160 --> 0:23:37.560
<v Speaker 1>sort out. So take us a level down and help

0:23:37.640 --> 0:23:41.280
<v Speaker 1>us understand what what companies generally are thinking around that. Yeah.

0:23:41.440 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 1>So it's a great point, Jason. And we've seen a

0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:46.000
<v Speaker 1>lot of this, right, We've seen you know, we've been

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:49.280
<v Speaker 1>in constant communication with the end customers as well as

0:23:49.320 --> 0:23:52.119
<v Speaker 1>the intermediary companies. The companies that provide the technology and

0:23:52.160 --> 0:23:55.240
<v Speaker 1>provide the services. And we've seen that across the board,

0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:57.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, I've I've talked to large service providers that

0:23:57.760 --> 0:24:02.080
<v Speaker 1>have had to stand up health organizations in places like um,

0:24:02.880 --> 0:24:06.320
<v Speaker 1>large major cities, large government bodies where you know, over

0:24:06.400 --> 0:24:09.359
<v Speaker 1>a weekend that they need an instant you know, a

0:24:09.359 --> 0:24:14.200
<v Speaker 1>new set of laptops for you know, multiple hundreds of customers. Um.

0:24:14.200 --> 0:24:16.359
<v Speaker 1>You know, good luck if you if you're in the

0:24:16.400 --> 0:24:18.920
<v Speaker 1>market right now for a laptop as a as a

0:24:18.960 --> 0:24:21.280
<v Speaker 1>small business or a consumer. We've seen a big surge

0:24:21.560 --> 0:24:24.959
<v Speaker 1>in demand there. But interestingly, when you get underneath that

0:24:25.080 --> 0:24:28.280
<v Speaker 1>for the whole year, we actually still think that you'll

0:24:28.280 --> 0:24:32.880
<v Speaker 1>see um contraction UM in those in those kinds of segments.

0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:34.760
<v Speaker 1>We think that you know, you look at the you

0:24:34.760 --> 0:24:36.760
<v Speaker 1>look at the PC market, which it had you know,

0:24:36.800 --> 0:24:40.119
<v Speaker 1>a relatively you know, nice run. We're looking at you know,

0:24:40.160 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 1>an I T spending, you know, we we expect that

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:45.399
<v Speaker 1>market to drop in almost including tablet's almost ten percent.

0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:48.720
<v Speaker 1>We expect the infrastructure market, you know, servers and large

0:24:48.760 --> 0:24:51.600
<v Speaker 1>storage systems that will drop by about four percent UM.

0:24:51.600 --> 0:24:54.840
<v Speaker 1>I T services that will drop between two and four percent.

0:24:55.160 --> 0:24:58.480
<v Speaker 1>The only category that will likely show growth. To your

0:24:58.520 --> 0:25:02.280
<v Speaker 1>point is interesting. It's software business. UM, that business we

0:25:02.359 --> 0:25:05.200
<v Speaker 1>expect well and that that business will just for perspective,

0:25:05.240 --> 0:25:07.919
<v Speaker 1>that business was between about nine percent growth, that'll go

0:25:07.960 --> 0:25:11.400
<v Speaker 1>down to about two growth. But again, what and this

0:25:11.480 --> 0:25:13.239
<v Speaker 1>is an interesting trend that you know, we we've been

0:25:13.280 --> 0:25:15.440
<v Speaker 1>talking about for a while, and that is that when

0:25:15.520 --> 0:25:18.600
<v Speaker 1>you start buying these things as a service, right, you

0:25:18.640 --> 0:25:23.320
<v Speaker 1>can't shut them off. You've basically bet your business as

0:25:23.560 --> 0:25:25.679
<v Speaker 1>so that basically means that you know you're in it

0:25:25.720 --> 0:25:27.320
<v Speaker 1>for a penny, you're in for a pound, and and

0:25:27.359 --> 0:25:29.360
<v Speaker 1>you're going to continue to buy these services if you're

0:25:29.400 --> 0:25:32.280
<v Speaker 1>a thing going forward, which we expect most men, many

0:25:32.280 --> 0:25:35.040
<v Speaker 1>companies today. Crawford, you're one of those individuals that we

0:25:35.359 --> 0:25:38.640
<v Speaker 1>folks at Bloomberg have been talking to for years, and

0:25:38.680 --> 0:25:42.240
<v Speaker 1>we have talked to you through various crises, whether it's

0:25:42.240 --> 0:25:45.680
<v Speaker 1>coming out of the financial crisis, you know, whether it's

0:25:45.720 --> 0:25:47.439
<v Speaker 1>after nine eleven. I mean, we have talked to you

0:25:47.560 --> 0:25:50.800
<v Speaker 1>for a long time about UM, the industry and the

0:25:50.800 --> 0:25:54.040
<v Speaker 1>tech industry generally speaking. I want to ask you, I mean,

0:25:54.560 --> 0:25:56.119
<v Speaker 1>I hope you guys are doing okay. I hope your

0:25:56.119 --> 0:25:58.720
<v Speaker 1>team is doing okay, And I'm curious how you see

0:25:58.760 --> 0:26:02.679
<v Speaker 1>this virus um changing the world. I mean, what do

0:26:02.720 --> 0:26:04.840
<v Speaker 1>you see is the most important in a way that

0:26:04.880 --> 0:26:08.360
<v Speaker 1>the world's going to be different on the other side. Yeah, well,

0:26:08.359 --> 0:26:10.800
<v Speaker 1>thanks for thanks for that, and you know, we're all

0:26:10.840 --> 0:26:13.280
<v Speaker 1>doing it is best that we can. You know, we're

0:26:13.359 --> 0:26:15.880
<v Speaker 1>we're a company a thousand people in in fifty countries

0:26:15.920 --> 0:26:18.000
<v Speaker 1>around the world, and we're all basically working from home

0:26:18.119 --> 0:26:20.240
<v Speaker 1>right now. But as far as we can tell, most

0:26:20.240 --> 0:26:23.359
<v Speaker 1>people are safe, and that's that's that's very important. So

0:26:23.440 --> 0:26:25.320
<v Speaker 1>I think that what you're going to see on the

0:26:25.320 --> 0:26:27.760
<v Speaker 1>other side is a couple of things, and some will

0:26:27.800 --> 0:26:30.959
<v Speaker 1>be very tangible and some sorry sorry very um I

0:26:30.960 --> 0:26:33.160
<v Speaker 1>think top of mind, and some maybe a little bit less.

0:26:33.160 --> 0:26:35.239
<v Speaker 1>So I think that one of the most tangible things

0:26:35.280 --> 0:26:38.159
<v Speaker 1>you'll see, the barriers are going to come down in

0:26:38.280 --> 0:26:42.359
<v Speaker 1>some things that regulation has been stopping those barriers from

0:26:42.400 --> 0:26:45.679
<v Speaker 1>coming down. I'm talking about stuff like Hella medicine. I

0:26:45.720 --> 0:26:48.480
<v Speaker 1>think you're going to start to see a scenario where

0:26:48.840 --> 0:26:50.760
<v Speaker 1>you know what, payers are going to have to get

0:26:50.800 --> 0:26:52.760
<v Speaker 1>out of the way, and if a cursing can be

0:26:52.800 --> 0:26:56.360
<v Speaker 1>diagnosed over a webcam, if if a person can can

0:26:56.400 --> 0:27:00.000
<v Speaker 1>still be part of the system and get a quality diagnosis. Um,

0:27:00.000 --> 0:27:03.240
<v Speaker 1>whether that's crossing state lines that aren't able to be

0:27:03.280 --> 0:27:05.879
<v Speaker 1>crossed today, I think those things start to change. So

0:27:05.880 --> 0:27:08.119
<v Speaker 1>I think we're gonna see a big change in in

0:27:08.160 --> 0:27:11.160
<v Speaker 1>those kinds of services going forward as we come out

0:27:11.240 --> 0:27:14.000
<v Speaker 1>the other side. I also think we're going to see

0:27:14.880 --> 0:27:19.159
<v Speaker 1>that how um the sort of people are willing to

0:27:19.240 --> 0:27:22.280
<v Speaker 1>work and where they live. I think we might see

0:27:22.720 --> 0:27:24.960
<v Speaker 1>more of a move to you know what, it's okay

0:27:25.040 --> 0:27:27.919
<v Speaker 1>if I don't commute every single day, It's okay for

0:27:28.000 --> 0:27:29.880
<v Speaker 1>me to work at home. You're not going to see

0:27:29.880 --> 0:27:32.280
<v Speaker 1>that same stigma. So I mean, I'm just gonna put

0:27:32.280 --> 0:27:34.680
<v Speaker 1>it out there and stigma associated with you know, what's

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:36.800
<v Speaker 1>going on with that person because they're working at home. Well,

0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:38.959
<v Speaker 1>the fact of the matter is we've proven that the

0:27:39.000 --> 0:27:42.000
<v Speaker 1>world can be very productive from home, and I think

0:27:42.000 --> 0:27:44.200
<v Speaker 1>the tools are there, and I think it was it's

0:27:44.240 --> 0:27:47.920
<v Speaker 1>really about things like social norms and social etiquette when

0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:50.280
<v Speaker 1>you're in the office, to be inclusive of the people

0:27:50.640 --> 0:27:53.360
<v Speaker 1>that are not necessarily in the office. And I think

0:27:53.400 --> 0:27:56.800
<v Speaker 1>that now with new kinds of services, we're gonna be

0:27:56.840 --> 0:27:59.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot more inclusive. On the other side. I think

0:27:59.680 --> 0:28:02.320
<v Speaker 1>the one that's debatable and one that comes up a

0:28:02.359 --> 0:28:05.320
<v Speaker 1>lot is what does this do for education? And I

0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:09.960
<v Speaker 1>think for for education, I think that UM, the underserved

0:28:10.000 --> 0:28:12.760
<v Speaker 1>and the nonserved people in emerging legions around the world,

0:28:13.000 --> 0:28:15.359
<v Speaker 1>they will take advantage of these kinds of tools. But

0:28:15.400 --> 0:28:17.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm a little more cynical when it comes to the

0:28:17.880 --> 0:28:21.520
<v Speaker 1>Western education system. I think that, unfortunately, it's a system

0:28:21.560 --> 0:28:24.000
<v Speaker 1>that's based on classrooms. It's a system that was set

0:28:24.080 --> 0:28:27.800
<v Speaker 1>up for classrooms, and I just think that, UM, there's

0:28:27.800 --> 0:28:30.639
<v Speaker 1>sort of an eliteness that comes from being in that

0:28:30.720 --> 0:28:33.880
<v Speaker 1>classroom at a university, and I think we're probably gonna

0:28:33.880 --> 0:28:36.520
<v Speaker 1>fall back into that um in the future. But I

0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:39.280
<v Speaker 1>do think that on the other side, this is going

0:28:39.320 --> 0:28:41.880
<v Speaker 1>to be a moment, and it's gonna be a moment

0:28:41.920 --> 0:28:44.160
<v Speaker 1>where things are going to change. I agree with you.

0:28:44.280 --> 0:28:47.080
<v Speaker 1>I think you make some really really good points. I

0:28:47.120 --> 0:28:49.520
<v Speaker 1>hope you're right on a lot of them. Uh, And

0:28:49.600 --> 0:28:51.320
<v Speaker 1>we'd love to keep checking in with you because we

0:28:51.360 --> 0:28:53.920
<v Speaker 1>know you really have you and your team, uh, your

0:28:53.960 --> 0:28:56.400
<v Speaker 1>finger on the pulse of how we think about technology,

0:28:56.400 --> 0:28:58.680
<v Speaker 1>because you've got the data. We love the data, all right.

0:28:58.960 --> 0:29:01.680
<v Speaker 1>Crawford del Prett thank you so much, President of I

0:29:01.920 --> 0:29:04.280
<v Speaker 1>d C International Data Corp. Joining us on the phone

0:29:04.680 --> 0:29:12.680
<v Speaker 1>from Framingham, Massachusetts. I'm bro Macro a journal. Yeah, but

0:29:12.840 --> 0:29:14.960
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no, who's

0:29:15.000 --> 0:29:18.440
<v Speaker 1>going to drive home? Honey? Please, I'll do the right

0:29:18.600 --> 0:29:25.840
<v Speaker 1>drivel Let me. I want to drive, Just drive baby.

0:29:27.720 --> 0:29:37.680
<v Speaker 1>The question trying This is the drive to the globe.

0:29:38.480 --> 0:29:42.040
<v Speaker 1>Give me thanks. We'll drying us down on Bloomberg Radio.

0:29:42.520 --> 0:29:44.600
<v Speaker 1>It is time for the drive to the clothes back

0:29:44.600 --> 0:29:47.320
<v Speaker 1>with us as George Mateo, chief investment officer at Key

0:29:47.400 --> 0:29:51.240
<v Speaker 1>Private Bank, joining us on the phone from Cleveland. George,

0:29:51.320 --> 0:29:54.000
<v Speaker 1>nice to have you here with us. Um, how do

0:29:54.000 --> 0:29:56.240
<v Speaker 1>you look at this market? Bear market or could we

0:29:56.320 --> 0:30:00.240
<v Speaker 1>be at the beginning of a new bull market? Well,

0:30:00.320 --> 0:30:02.040
<v Speaker 1>great to be with you, and thanks for having me back.

0:30:02.120 --> 0:30:04.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, I think it's probably good of both. I mean,

0:30:04.040 --> 0:30:05.600
<v Speaker 1>I think we're just going to be in this sideways

0:30:05.640 --> 0:30:08.280
<v Speaker 1>shop for a while. So we'll have days like today

0:30:08.320 --> 0:30:10.800
<v Speaker 1>we'll so good about things, and days will still probably

0:30:10.840 --> 0:30:12.520
<v Speaker 1>a little less good. So I think we just have

0:30:12.600 --> 0:30:15.760
<v Speaker 1>to kind of fasten our seatbelt and hold on. And

0:30:15.840 --> 0:30:20.720
<v Speaker 1>so what are you hearing from uh, customers and clients

0:30:20.720 --> 0:30:22.720
<v Speaker 1>and and one of the reasons I'm especially interested to

0:30:23.200 --> 0:30:26.960
<v Speaker 1>I think we're both interested to hear you answer that, George,

0:30:27.000 --> 0:30:29.000
<v Speaker 1>is because you're not in New York City. You're there

0:30:29.040 --> 0:30:33.440
<v Speaker 1>in in Cleveland, And obviously I think this crisis looks, uh,

0:30:33.720 --> 0:30:37.960
<v Speaker 1>while broadly the same, maybe individually locally and regionally a

0:30:38.000 --> 0:30:41.760
<v Speaker 1>little bit different. So how are how are people reacting,

0:30:41.760 --> 0:30:45.200
<v Speaker 1>how are they interacting with you? Yeah, well, I hope

0:30:45.240 --> 0:30:47.320
<v Speaker 1>you both are keeping safe too, and all your listeners

0:30:47.320 --> 0:30:49.360
<v Speaker 1>for sure. I mean, I think Ohio is a little

0:30:49.360 --> 0:30:50.720
<v Speaker 1>bit of as a curve. It seems like we've had

0:30:50.760 --> 0:30:53.640
<v Speaker 1>a pretty progressive government get out in front of this,

0:30:53.760 --> 0:30:55.720
<v Speaker 1>but I think everybody is still in the same level

0:30:55.760 --> 0:30:58.800
<v Speaker 1>anxiety where wherever you live, uh, And that's just kinda

0:30:58.840 --> 0:31:01.480
<v Speaker 1>feels more anxiety to some that but I think people

0:31:01.640 --> 0:31:03.720
<v Speaker 1>are trying to measure about it and trying to kind

0:31:03.720 --> 0:31:06.440
<v Speaker 1>of maintain their composure, and investors need to do the

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:09.160
<v Speaker 1>same thing. So, you know, in spite of all this uncertainty,

0:31:09.200 --> 0:31:11.280
<v Speaker 1>we really want to encourage people to maintain their long

0:31:11.400 --> 0:31:14.840
<v Speaker 1>term discipline and stay stay in the market excep they can,

0:31:15.000 --> 0:31:17.160
<v Speaker 1>and really stick to their long term plan. And that's

0:31:17.160 --> 0:31:19.840
<v Speaker 1>really the message we've been trying to emphasize how many

0:31:19.880 --> 0:31:23.160
<v Speaker 1>of those of your clients their long term plan has

0:31:23.200 --> 0:31:26.200
<v Speaker 1>really been upended by such a dramatic pullback in the

0:31:26.280 --> 0:31:30.280
<v Speaker 1>equity markets. You know, A good questions, not a lot though,

0:31:30.320 --> 0:31:34.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean I think people um not to this extent certainly,

0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:36.400
<v Speaker 1>but I think people might have been anticipating in some

0:31:36.440 --> 0:31:38.840
<v Speaker 1>degree of alatility. We try to take a long term approach.

0:31:38.840 --> 0:31:42.120
<v Speaker 1>We try to counsel clients to expect volatility will be

0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:47.080
<v Speaker 1>a feature of the investment landscape. Again, the magnitude has

0:31:47.080 --> 0:31:50.440
<v Speaker 1>probably been unprecedented for sure, and often use word but

0:31:50.480 --> 0:31:52.760
<v Speaker 1>I think it's fits. But I think people know that

0:31:52.840 --> 0:31:54.960
<v Speaker 1>volatility is something that kind of comes with the territory.

0:31:55.040 --> 0:31:58.120
<v Speaker 1>So we've got some great financial planning tools and techniques

0:31:58.160 --> 0:32:00.680
<v Speaker 1>that really kind of focus that folk on that first,

0:32:01.080 --> 0:32:02.800
<v Speaker 1>and then from there you can really hopefully build a

0:32:02.840 --> 0:32:05.040
<v Speaker 1>long term investment plan and shake to it. In market

0:32:05.080 --> 0:32:08.600
<v Speaker 1>site today. So, George, we love talking names with you.

0:32:08.840 --> 0:32:11.880
<v Speaker 1>Tell us about Microsoft. I'm especially interested because we had

0:32:11.880 --> 0:32:14.040
<v Speaker 1>a great conversation just a little while ago with Crawford

0:32:14.040 --> 0:32:16.560
<v Speaker 1>del Prett over at I d C. You know, talking

0:32:16.600 --> 0:32:19.720
<v Speaker 1>about uh I T spending. But one of the bright

0:32:19.840 --> 0:32:22.160
<v Speaker 1>spots and maybe this is why you have this pick

0:32:22.560 --> 0:32:26.400
<v Speaker 1>Uh is around software that obviously is an area where

0:32:26.600 --> 0:32:30.120
<v Speaker 1>we've seen tremendous growth, and his team is essentially predicting

0:32:30.160 --> 0:32:32.920
<v Speaker 1>that it's the one area in I T where we

0:32:33.000 --> 0:32:36.760
<v Speaker 1>might still see a little bit of optimism this year. Yeah,

0:32:36.800 --> 0:32:38.560
<v Speaker 1>I would agree with that, and I think it again

0:32:38.600 --> 0:32:42.000
<v Speaker 1>speaks to the notion of really signing high quality companies

0:32:42.080 --> 0:32:45.040
<v Speaker 1>with really strong balance sheets. You know, people are companies

0:32:45.040 --> 0:32:47.280
<v Speaker 1>that are led by strong management teams and people can

0:32:47.280 --> 0:32:50.479
<v Speaker 1>really identify with their services. Software. I think you're right

0:32:50.560 --> 0:32:52.120
<v Speaker 1>is kind of a goacher areas. It's kind of a

0:32:52.120 --> 0:32:55.840
<v Speaker 1>good core defensive name within the tech landscape, really strong

0:32:55.880 --> 0:32:59.120
<v Speaker 1>cash flow generation, strong balance sheet, good earning. The visibility

0:32:59.240 --> 0:33:03.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean Abody's tarningt pssibilities a little bit mired DSE days,

0:33:03.320 --> 0:33:05.680
<v Speaker 1>but we think that Microsoft can shine through an environment

0:33:05.720 --> 0:33:07.840
<v Speaker 1>like this, going toward about a good sect of hell

0:33:07.920 --> 0:33:09.880
<v Speaker 1>and set their back to it really can describe that

0:33:09.960 --> 0:33:12.280
<v Speaker 1>grows form, we think. So does that mean when it

0:33:12.400 --> 0:33:16.320
<v Speaker 1>dipped to below one forty, well below one forty, that

0:33:16.400 --> 0:33:18.720
<v Speaker 1>you guys were doing some buying. I think the low

0:33:18.800 --> 0:33:20.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm just looking the most recent lows around one thirty

0:33:20.880 --> 0:33:22.840
<v Speaker 1>four and change or so, did you do a bunch

0:33:22.840 --> 0:33:26.160
<v Speaker 1>of buying into Microsoft? I say, we'd be a bunch

0:33:26.200 --> 0:33:28.400
<v Speaker 1>of buying, but yeah, we've been nibbling at it. For sure.

0:33:28.960 --> 0:33:30.800
<v Speaker 1>It's come back and um, you know we still like

0:33:30.880 --> 0:33:32.840
<v Speaker 1>the name though, so on a long term basis, we'd

0:33:33.000 --> 0:33:35.280
<v Speaker 1>be buying it today. Actually, what about something like a

0:33:35.280 --> 0:33:38.600
<v Speaker 1>dollar general? Weal, Yeah, we talked about this a lot,

0:33:38.640 --> 0:33:41.840
<v Speaker 1>and we've been talking, um, Jason and I about the

0:33:41.880 --> 0:33:45.400
<v Speaker 1>overall retail sector and what's going on. UM, tell us

0:33:45.440 --> 0:33:47.400
<v Speaker 1>a bit about what's your what's your thesis is for

0:33:47.400 --> 0:33:50.280
<v Speaker 1>this one? Well? Does that much extent? They're kind of

0:33:50.280 --> 0:33:52.240
<v Speaker 1>a mass of their own destiny. I mean something the

0:33:52.280 --> 0:33:55.000
<v Speaker 1>macro environment is going to be headwind for a lot

0:33:55.080 --> 0:33:57.880
<v Speaker 1>of folks, and hopefully these things are more short term

0:33:57.880 --> 0:34:00.040
<v Speaker 1>in nature, but they really do offer the best a

0:34:00.120 --> 0:34:03.880
<v Speaker 1>breach format within kind of a smaller size box. Um,

0:34:04.000 --> 0:34:06.120
<v Speaker 1>They've got some really good levers they can pull to

0:34:06.160 --> 0:34:09.279
<v Speaker 1>try and and enhance their merchandizing. They've got some new

0:34:09.800 --> 0:34:12.640
<v Speaker 1>initiatives that are really poised for some growth going forward.

0:34:13.120 --> 0:34:15.880
<v Speaker 1>They've also got a environment where they their closest competitor

0:34:16.080 --> 0:34:18.840
<v Speaker 1>is a little bit hampered as antar term and so

0:34:18.920 --> 0:34:20.080
<v Speaker 1>I think there's a lot of things they can do

0:34:20.200 --> 0:34:22.160
<v Speaker 1>to kind of get through this better than others. So

0:34:22.200 --> 0:34:23.880
<v Speaker 1>I think they're well positioned over the long term as

0:34:23.880 --> 0:34:26.640
<v Speaker 1>well well. And it's interesting to think about that name

0:34:26.840 --> 0:34:29.759
<v Speaker 1>to George right, like knowing enough to be dangerous about

0:34:29.760 --> 0:34:32.440
<v Speaker 1>their history. You know, KKR bought them kind of at

0:34:32.520 --> 0:34:34.600
<v Speaker 1>the tail end of the last thing, right before the

0:34:34.640 --> 0:34:37.839
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis, and it was a great name to have

0:34:38.320 --> 0:34:42.200
<v Speaker 1>as we went into a period of economic uncertainty where

0:34:42.320 --> 0:34:46.839
<v Speaker 1>a discount retailer maybe more attractive, and they are servicing

0:34:47.480 --> 0:34:50.280
<v Speaker 1>a big chunk of the country that is largely under

0:34:50.400 --> 0:34:55.520
<v Speaker 1>market or undermarketed or under under retail sways underserved. Yeah,

0:34:55.640 --> 0:34:57.520
<v Speaker 1>I agree with you, Yeah, hardly. I think that's so

0:34:57.960 --> 0:35:00.319
<v Speaker 1>that's a key part the thesis for sure. But I

0:35:00.320 --> 0:35:02.320
<v Speaker 1>do wonder. I do wonder too, that's going to be

0:35:02.360 --> 0:35:05.080
<v Speaker 1>the segment of I feel like our population that's going

0:35:05.120 --> 0:35:08.000
<v Speaker 1>to be hit the hardest. So does a dollar general

0:35:08.040 --> 0:35:11.120
<v Speaker 1>benefit or get hurt because of that? You know, there

0:35:11.280 --> 0:35:13.319
<v Speaker 1>are some short term headwinds for sure, But I think

0:35:13.360 --> 0:35:16.440
<v Speaker 1>that they've plun to be seller operators. Uh, they're finding

0:35:16.480 --> 0:35:19.520
<v Speaker 1>people definding ways to get people into the store. Some

0:35:19.560 --> 0:35:21.360
<v Speaker 1>continuing options they've set up at the back of the

0:35:21.400 --> 0:35:23.399
<v Speaker 1>store that allow people to take up their goods, um,

0:35:23.560 --> 0:35:25.319
<v Speaker 1>you know, without having to go in the store, are

0:35:25.440 --> 0:35:28.040
<v Speaker 1>a big part of their growth also um. But again,

0:35:28.040 --> 0:35:30.279
<v Speaker 1>I think they're really kind of focused on the core demographic.

0:35:30.640 --> 0:35:32.399
<v Speaker 1>Really freshen of the stores a little bit too, which

0:35:32.400 --> 0:35:35.600
<v Speaker 1>will actually hope we drive traffic. And adding new categories

0:35:35.880 --> 0:35:38.400
<v Speaker 1>like food for example, will be another key driver for that.

0:35:38.480 --> 0:35:41.040
<v Speaker 1>And people still need to eat. Yeah, well, and one

0:35:41.239 --> 0:35:43.960
<v Speaker 1>exactly and one of the things that they have on

0:35:44.040 --> 0:35:47.000
<v Speaker 1>their side, I think, right, George, is this notion that

0:35:47.239 --> 0:35:50.560
<v Speaker 1>they are in these underserved markets, and it's it's sort

0:35:50.560 --> 0:35:52.960
<v Speaker 1>of the general part of the Dollar General that like

0:35:53.040 --> 0:35:55.040
<v Speaker 1>they're the only game in town or one of the

0:35:55.080 --> 0:35:57.160
<v Speaker 1>few games in town, and a lot of these more

0:35:57.760 --> 0:36:01.520
<v Speaker 1>rural parts of the South and elsewhere. I think that's right. Yeah,

0:36:01.520 --> 0:36:02.920
<v Speaker 1>that's too why I put it the general part of

0:36:02.920 --> 0:36:04.600
<v Speaker 1>the stores, It was just the Dollar General. I think

0:36:04.640 --> 0:36:07.160
<v Speaker 1>that's a good analogy. Yeah, they've definitely been hiring. I

0:36:07.200 --> 0:36:09.000
<v Speaker 1>was just looking at some of the most recent headlines

0:36:09.000 --> 0:36:11.840
<v Speaker 1>are hiring up to fifty thousand new employees to support

0:36:11.880 --> 0:36:14.160
<v Speaker 1>their operations. By the end of April they were doing that,

0:36:14.520 --> 0:36:16.200
<v Speaker 1>and then they were also giving a bunch of their

0:36:16.200 --> 0:36:20.439
<v Speaker 1>employees a bunch of bonuses, like thirty million dollars in bonuses. Yeah.

0:36:20.560 --> 0:36:23.799
<v Speaker 1>Now it's really interesting. Great, great to catch up with you.

0:36:23.800 --> 0:36:27.080
<v Speaker 1>We really appreciate it. George Mateo is chief investment officer

0:36:27.120 --> 0:36:30.560
<v Speaker 1>out of Keep Private Bank, on the phone from Cleveland.

0:36:30.600 --> 0:36:32.840
<v Speaker 1>We hope you and your team stay safe and and

0:36:32.920 --> 0:36:35.319
<v Speaker 1>hope you guys continue to be ahead of the curve.

0:36:35.360 --> 0:36:37.920
<v Speaker 1>As you say, Uh, Mike Dwyne, I believe the governor

0:36:38.320 --> 0:36:41.400
<v Speaker 1>of Ohio, as George pointed out, you know, he was

0:36:41.440 --> 0:36:43.520
<v Speaker 1>one of the first he moved the primary bat. You know,

0:36:43.560 --> 0:36:47.320
<v Speaker 1>there were a lot of big actions uh that uh

0:36:47.360 --> 0:36:49.520
<v Speaker 1>he was taking up. Believe he's a Republican to you know.

0:36:49.600 --> 0:36:53.400
<v Speaker 1>So it's an interesting, uh case study in many ways

0:36:53.400 --> 0:36:56.320
<v Speaker 1>as we continue to talk about governors and what not,

0:36:56.480 --> 0:36:59.840
<v Speaker 1>so interesting to hear his perspective. As always, thanks for

0:37:00.000 --> 0:37:02.400
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. You can subscribe to the

0:37:02.440 --> 0:37:05.560
<v Speaker 1>podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You can

0:37:05.600 --> 0:37:08.080
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