1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:19,479 Speaker 1: The volume here with the betting extraordinaire. We've been red 2 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 1: hot in the National Football League playoffs. We are now 3 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: entering We've got three games left. Stucky, it makes me well, 4 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: I guess you know you count the Pro Bowl. They 5 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: even still play the Pro Bowl. I don't. They refused 6 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: to bet the Pro Bowl. Some people, Okay, you know, 7 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 1: are you a true gambler? Because I feel like the 8 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: true degenerate's got a little action on that bad boy. 9 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: But they started going like a basketball that day. So 10 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: I'll have my yeah you fall stuck you on Twitter? 11 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 1: You know he's he's heavy into the college basketball. But 12 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: let's dive into these conference championship games. We got the 13 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: a f C game, the NFC game. You can hear Stucky. 14 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: Action Network podcast every Thursday comes out. Also, uh bets 15 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: on Campus Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Campus Monday Wednesday Friday. College basketball. 16 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: We at college football too, but we transitioned to college 17 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: basketball at the end of the tournament. Well, let's let's 18 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: start with the first game, because I do think it 19 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 1: could be a dud. I already have a large wager 20 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 1: on on the canc Chiefs. I went back and did 21 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: a little film study that the Chiefs were killing them 22 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: that final game. They were up pretty you know, multiple 23 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 1: touchdowns and Burrow and Jamaar Chase turned into Joe Montana 24 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: and Randy Moss and you know came storming back the 25 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 1: Chiefs kind of like last week couldn't cover anyone. But 26 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: the one thing about last week talking to my my 27 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 1: boys in Kansas City, they thought that the honey Badger 28 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: getting cooed early in that game. Now the Honey Badger 29 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: is not what he once was, but from a cerebral standpoint, 30 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: he gets people lined up. He's he's really their middle 31 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: linebacker on defense. And the communication was all messed up. 32 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 1: That's why a guy you might have I didn't really 33 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: know who Gabriel Davis was and how was like who 34 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: because I kept being fooled by the team thinking oh, 35 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: Digs is killing him. Then he'd be like that's thirteen again. 36 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: And it was. It was crazy to watch. But I 37 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: I think when you probably look at the statistics and 38 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: just watching them with your eyes, I mean, Mahomes these 39 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: last six or seven weeks has arguably been the best 40 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 1: player in football. The Chiefs. You know, four straight a 41 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: f C championship games, the chance to go first. You 42 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 1: know them in the Patriots over the last couple of 43 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: decades would be the teams to go to three straight 44 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: Super Bowls. Uh, They're obviously a massive favorite. I know 45 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: it's a big line and the one thing gambling with 46 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: you all year, those big lines good teams that that 47 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: they're dumb to do sometimes. But I think the Bengals 48 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: this is kind of I mean there they might be 49 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: here to stay, you know, as a playoff team, but 50 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 1: this feels about two years early to be this far. 51 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: And the Chiefs clearly are a powerhouse. I like the 52 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: Chiefs minus seven. I like him. I like him big 53 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: in this game, Stucky, what about you? Yeah, I would 54 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: wait towards the Bengals, especially if I can get seven 55 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 1: and a half. I mean, here's the thing. The Chiefs 56 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 1: are spectacular. My homes is spectacular, but they struggle covering 57 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: you know, a touchdown or greater spreads. I mean, if 58 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: you look back historically at my homes, he's elite coverage spreads, 59 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: whether under a field goal or in the rare case 60 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: that he was an under dog way back in the day. 61 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: But you know, if you look back at his career, 62 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: he's actually under five as a favorite of seven or 63 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: more points. And by the way, Joe Burrow ten and 64 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: two against the spread as a dog of three or 65 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 1: more in the NFL. And if you go back to 66 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: seventy favorites of seven or more in the conference championship game, 67 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: they're thirty two and five straight out. So they've won 68 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 1: thirty two out of thirty seven. And I would expect 69 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: the Chiefs to win this game, but they're only fifteen 70 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 1: and twenty two against the spread. It's just a lot 71 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: to cover. And the reason why the Chiefs struggle to 72 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 1: cover such, you know, high numbers of seven or more, 73 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 1: it's not because of my Homes. It's because of their defense, 74 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: right Like, it's the kind of defense get Eno stops. 75 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: And then he did. If Mahomes is spectacular as he 76 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 1: generally is in the playoffs, I think he has twenty 77 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: four touchdowns in one interception and at home in the 78 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: playoffs in his career. Even if they're fourteen late, it's like, Okay, 79 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: can the Bengals go down and score and and make 80 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: the simple game? Absolutely? Um so I would I like 81 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: the Bengals a little bit. I don't love it. I 82 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: just think that they can move the ball here. I'll 83 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 1: be really interested to see if the Chiefs do blitz 84 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: and if they play man heavy, because that's what Barrow 85 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 1: is carved up all year long, and they did it. 86 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 1: They went with their tendencies. They blitz and they were 87 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: playing man when they played the Bengals and he threw 88 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 1: for I mean Chase that I don't know, two and 89 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 1: seventy yards in that game. So I'll be curious to 90 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:38,480 Speaker 1: see how they play. Assume the Bengals, with their offensive 91 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 1: lines of mas, they're gonna go a lot of empty 92 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: set to kind of negate that their their numbers an 93 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 1: empty set. These playoffs and all year have been phenomenal, 94 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: and Barrow hasn't been getting sacked when he's an empty set. 95 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: So I'm curious to see how they played. If you're 96 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: looking for a prop, Tyler boyd out there, it's over 97 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: like thirty seven, thirty eight yards. He averages like fift 98 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,840 Speaker 1: during the regular season. I assume what the Chiefs are 99 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: gonna do is they're gonna say, all right, let's look 100 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 1: back at that regular season matchup. We obviously have no 101 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: one who can cover Chase. Let's bracket him. Let's make 102 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 1: sure he doesn't beat us allah Stefon Diggs last week 103 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: they took him completely out of the game and then 104 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,480 Speaker 1: guess who eight was Gabriel Agus who have a million touchdowns. 105 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: So I think Tyler Boyd can be the benefactor of 106 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 1: a lot of added attention to Chase. It could be Higgins, 107 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: but his numbers up there. Boyd hasn't he hasn't had, 108 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: you know, explosion playoff games, so I think that number 109 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: is a little deflated. Um. So, yeah, it's it's a 110 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: tough one. If look, if you if you want to say, 111 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: Chiefs are clearly better, and um, I just I'm not 112 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: afraid of Burrow going into Arrowhead, even though he's so young, 113 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: he's been in so many big games. And this team, 114 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: this bangalsy kind of reminds me of something like the 115 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: Ravens teams of Flacco, Like they're just not afraid. Um So, 116 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: I don't know. If I had to call it, I'd 117 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: say Chiefs win by four. Um But I could see 118 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: your argument here. They could the beggars could be over 119 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: their head and you you're probably not right away, Yeah, 120 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: I agree, And let's let's face it. I mean, we 121 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:13,919 Speaker 1: have the Bills. Chiefs was the heavyweight match we just 122 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:16,799 Speaker 1: got it a week early. This feels like a heavyweight match. 123 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan ver Sean McVeigh. The Rams made all these 124 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: trades for this moment. The irony is the Niners made 125 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 1: one of the biggest trades in NFL history, definitely the 126 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: biggest trade in their franchise for a quarterback. Yet he 127 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 1: doesn't sniff the field because of Jimmy G. But Jimmy 128 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: G's played in this game before, you know, just a 129 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: couple of years ago. Not granted, he only had eight 130 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 1: pass attempts in that game because they ran it all 131 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 1: over the Rams throat. But I was at this game 132 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 1: four weeks ago and it's one of the craziest things 133 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: I've ever seen live. And it it kind of caps off. 134 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 1: It didn't happen. They're not in the playoffs, I know, 135 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: and you saw Sean Payton, He's like, I'm rooting against 136 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: the Rams because they cost them the spot. We're sitting 137 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: in our seats going what's the Falcon score? And by 138 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 1: the time it got to like I think it was 139 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: like twenty four to sit, You're like, you knew it 140 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: was over and the Niners are losing, but it all 141 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: flipped and the Niners now have one. I saw ESPN 142 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: stats and info. They're the first team in league history 143 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,119 Speaker 1: to win three straight games on the road against teams 144 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: with twelve plus wins. And this has a chance to 145 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: before now obviously be beating the same team twice. But uh, 146 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: I think we're on the same page here. I mean, 147 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: I have money on the Niners money line. Uh now, 148 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 1: but I'm with I think this game is a coin flip. 149 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 1: I would hammer the Niners plus three and a half. Uh. 150 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: Debo has owned owned the Ramps in the two matchups 151 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: this year. Now, Cooper cups the problem. I mean, Cooper 152 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: Cup is a major problem in a He's a problem 153 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 1: against everybody. He's gonna get his no matter who he plays. Now. 154 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 1: The one thing, Stafford, I give him credit these last 155 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: two weeks, he's been pretty dialed. No turnovers, uh has 156 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: just has looked awesome. The two games against the Niners 157 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: this year, He's thrown four interceptions. So it's it to 158 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: me if he rows interceptions, the Niners are gonna win. 159 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:04,559 Speaker 1: If he plays like he has the last couple of weeks, 160 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: probably advantage Rams. But the other big story, I don't 161 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: know if you you know in your neck of the 162 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: Woods out here, it's gonna be a Niner home game. 163 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: They tried to make it like we're only allowing it 164 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: to people within the you know, the area codes, and 165 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: then ticketmasters like, we don't give a ship. So and 166 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: I think it's just gonna be a sea of red. 167 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: It's gonna be tough. Man. I I love the Niners 168 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: plus three and a half, and I like him. I 169 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: like him to win the game straight up. Yeah, I agree. 170 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:32,439 Speaker 1: I think that there's and by the way, just to 171 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:34,679 Speaker 1: circle back, one last start on the Bengals. The Bengels, 172 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 1: like I said, yet when I said, you have to 173 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: know right away, the Bengals have to jump out to leave, 174 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 1: they have to start fast here. I don't know if 175 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 1: there's gonna be a hangover for the Chiefs. But for 176 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 1: what it's worth, teams and after winning it over time 177 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 1: in the playoffs, you would think, off side relief, let's 178 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: go only three and eleven straight up the next week 179 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: five and nine against the spread. So I don't know 180 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 1: if the Chiefs come out just a little like flat 181 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 1: after just such an amazing game. I don't know if 182 00:08:58,240 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: the Bengals have to capitalize not if they have to 183 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: come out best. But yeah I can. In regards to 184 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 1: Rams nine ers three and APS too many, I think 185 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: these two teams are pretty much even from a power 186 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: ratings perspective, and then home home field advantage, I'm like, yeah, 187 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 1: there's none pretty much here. You probably have more forty 188 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 1: Niners fans. It's a divisional matchup, so there's familiarity here 189 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,199 Speaker 1: that I mean both teams. Neither team had to buy, right, 190 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: so it's not like one team had to buy the 191 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:27,479 Speaker 1: first week and then And I just think that they 192 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: these two teams, you match up extremely well with the Rams. 193 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 1: They can attack the middle of the field, which is 194 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: where the Rams a week. And look, here's the stat 195 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:40,559 Speaker 1: The Rams defense only allowed one quarterback all year to 196 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: average over nine yards per attempt. It was Jimmy G twice. 197 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: That was it. No other quarterback average over nine yards 198 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: per tempt. I mean, I can go on and on. 199 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: I mean, Jimmy G's fifteen and four against the spread 200 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 1: as an underdog, covering by nine points per game. How 201 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 1: about fourteen and five straight up as an underdog. That's 202 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 1: the best winning percentage as an underdog in the Super 203 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: Bowl Air and Chattan has owned McVeigh seven and three 204 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: against the spread, four and oh straight up as a 205 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: dog over the past two season, six and oh straight 206 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: up over the past three seasons. I think they match 207 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: up well. And one of the reasons that I liked 208 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: the Rams last week was that the Bucks blitz, and 209 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: they blitz more than any team in the NFL, and 210 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: it ended up costing at the end. They blitz them 211 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: for whatever reason. Bulls blits. The guy that was on 212 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: Cup and Stafford all year has been great against the blitz. 213 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 1: The Niners don't really blitz, and they don't have to 214 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,439 Speaker 1: blitz because that front four is playing so well. They're 215 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 1: dominating against the run, which is pretty much how the 216 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: Ramps set everything up. And they're getting pressure with their 217 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: stunts and they don't have the blitz and that is 218 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 1: what's really causing Stafford issues in both their matchups this 219 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 1: this year. I think they'll be able to run the 220 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 1: ball use the Rams aggressiveness against them. So yeah, I 221 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 1: like the fret. You'll hear the narrative. Also, oh, you 222 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: can't beat a team three times it is season Well, 223 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: since two thousand two, teams that swept to only division teams. 224 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:02,319 Speaker 1: Teams that swept the regular season that faced off in 225 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: the playoffs have gone five and three straight up, so 226 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: they won five of the eight. Usually, when you beat 227 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: a team in your division twice, like a lot of 228 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: times you're gonna split, that probably speaks to the fact 229 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: that you match up well more than anything else. So 230 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,679 Speaker 1: that that's that's just whenever people say you can't beat 231 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:21,719 Speaker 1: the team three times, this garbage. So yeah, I love that. 232 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: I love the three and a half here. I'm shocked 233 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: that we at the three and a half. I assume 234 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: this closes three. This is probably the dream matchup for 235 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,959 Speaker 1: the forty Niners here because you weren't getting a home 236 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:36,319 Speaker 1: game in the NFC Championship, and uh, maybe you don't 237 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: want to play at home, and this is the closest 238 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:39,960 Speaker 1: thing you're gonna play to a home game with your fans. 239 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the Niners are gonna find a 240 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: way here. I'm with you. This is, uh what would 241 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:51,199 Speaker 1: if we assume the Chiefs win their favorite against the 242 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 1: Rams or in this So here's another thing. I think 243 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: that the market to the line of three and a 244 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 1: half is odd to me because you know it closed 245 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: three and a half at the end of the regular season. 246 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: There was still some uncertainty with Jimmy. Maybe there's some 247 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 1: uncertainty with the injury to Jimmy G. I thought he 248 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: looked fine and it was in the cold last week. 249 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:12,560 Speaker 1: He made some four throws, but he made there were 250 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: some drops to Maybe that's priced into it, but I 251 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 1: think home field is being priced into this line, and 252 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: I think it'll be gobbled up by short money later 253 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: in the week because if you look at some of 254 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: the look ahead markets, the Chiefs are one and a 255 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: half excuse me, one and a half point favorites against 256 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: the Rams and two and a half point favorites against 257 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:38,440 Speaker 1: the forty Niners. So that's implying there's a one So 258 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: they were what I saw. I think I saw this 259 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: a day or two together. Minus Chiefs would be minus 260 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: one and a half against the Rams. Now keep in 261 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 1: mind this game would be played in l A. But 262 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: Chiefs would be minus one and a half against the 263 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: Rams and then minus two and a half against the 264 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: forty Niners, which implies there's a one point difference between 265 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,719 Speaker 1: the Ram the two teams, which I can get to. 266 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 1: And then if you told me that, fine, and then 267 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: I don't have any home field advantage. For either team here. 268 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 1: So if you made the line one cool, I probably 269 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:11,559 Speaker 1: wouldn't bet it um. If you made it three, I 270 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: probably still take the four hours three and a half. 271 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 1: All over, NFL playoffs are in full gear and everybody 272 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: can get in on the action with a risk free 273 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: bet on the Fandel Sports Book. Doesn't matter if you're 274 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 1: new to fan duel or if you already have an account. 275 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:34,439 Speaker 1: All customers get up to ten dollars back if your 276 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 1: same game parlay doesn't win. Okay. 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Slash r g 296 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:33,840 Speaker 1: in Colorado, Jersey, and Virginia were called one nine with 297 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: it Indiana seventy seventeen for confidential help. In Michigan, Tennessee, 298 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 1: redline is one hight n We're gonna one hundred gamble 299 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: dot in West Virginia or called one hundred next step 300 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 1: or text next step to five two in Arizona. Well, stucky, 301 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: let's uh, let's soak this in every you know, probably 302 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: six and a half, six and a half hours of 303 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: football on Sunday and then just hold on for dear 304 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: life till the Super Bowl and then I don't know 305 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: what the hell we're gonna do. You got college basketball, 306 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: I got I got golf, and that'll have to take 307 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: us to the summer when we just started thinking about 308 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 1: training camp. You know, yeah, well as as let me 309 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 1: see this for you, let me go that's a forty 310 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: Niners fan. You went like you see both tray on 311 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: a scale one to ten. What was your confidence level 312 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: on the first two Black games and then this one? 313 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: I would say the Cowboys game, very very confident, just 314 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 1: Kyle Verse McCarthy didn't feel as I thought the Cowboys 315 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: were overrated. The Dak Verse Jimmy matchup was to me 316 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: much closer despite you know, Dak being you know, forty 317 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 1: million dollar quarterback. That played out a little more similar 318 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 1: than we thought, or as as I thought. I would 319 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: say the Packer game, I thought they were gonna lose. 320 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: Now I had a little money on them, just because 321 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 1: I'm biased, But when I was watching the game, especially 322 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: by about mid third quarter, they were not going to 323 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 1: score a touchdown, an offensive touchdown. So even though their 324 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: defense was playing out of their mind, and Lambeau is 325 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: really not kind and Rodgers because his greatest strength gets neutralized. 326 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 1: It's negative five degrees. You just can't You're not gonna 327 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 1: throw for four yards. But they were not gonna win 328 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: that game if they didn't get the punt. I mean, 329 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 1: it just was not gonna happen. So they Now the 330 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: one thing I was talking about this with someone yesterday, 331 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: they are and I heard Troy Aikman mentioned this. He's like, 332 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 1: you know, this team reminds me of teams like from 333 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 1: the nineties because they're not predicated on Mahomes. They're really 334 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: more remember that Brady team, those first couple of Super 335 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 1: Bowl teams that ran out in the tunnel, like as 336 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: a team like that. This team is you know, you know, 337 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 1: predicated on They've had guys. Think who had the game 338 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: winning play against the Rams. It was Ambrey Thomas. They've 339 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 1: had Jimmy Ward make big plays. They've had Eric Armstead 340 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 1: make good plays. They had John Jennings. So they aren't 341 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: is like the Rams are predicated on Stafford when he's awesome, 342 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: they're awesome Jimmy. I mean, they've been winning and Jimmy 343 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 1: probably get shipped on unfairly. But if he just doesn't 344 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: if he throws picks, the Niners would be in trouble. 345 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 1: I don't think they can overcome interceptions. And they got 346 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 1: lucky in the Packer game. That that's the time he 347 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: wanted to throw his and I would say even that 348 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 1: they went lucky that that because that was a red 349 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 1: zone pick and in a game where points where it's 350 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,160 Speaker 1: such a premium right that could cost him to three points. 351 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: It could have really fucked them. And then Dodgers throws 352 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 1: that ball to Jones and then they end up blocking 353 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,959 Speaker 1: the field goal. That was a crazy stretch of plays 354 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: right there at the end of that half that kept 355 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 1: the Niners kind of alive where in this game, you 356 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 1: know they got even watching that Rams game week eight teen, 357 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 1: they were down seventeen nothing, Jimmy throws a pick the 358 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: Rams if they're driving, if they score and just make 359 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: it twenty to nothing, it would have been hard to overcome. 360 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 1: But the defense has just I think the deep the 361 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 1: Niner Damiko Ryan's stucky has been fucking awesome stretch. So 362 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: you know, it's just and McVeigh one thing I wonder 363 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 1: and we'll know, like when we're watching the game, it'll 364 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 1: be interesting how Aikman says, like you know, how Aikman 365 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: always early in the game be like, you know, Sean 366 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 1: McVeigh told us they approached the elephant in the room 367 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 1: of blowing that game week a team he brought it 368 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,880 Speaker 1: up right away Wednesday morning when he approached the team. 369 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 1: Or will it be like they didn't even touch it, 370 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 1: you know, they pretended it didn't have I don't know that. 371 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 1: That to me is gonna be how he has those 372 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: guys like are they you know, is that Are they 373 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: shook from that or like they don't remember it? I 374 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 1: don't know. I mean that's to me, if if the 375 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 1: Rams come out and win MC, they will get a 376 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,120 Speaker 1: lot of credit for being able to put that behind him. 377 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: And same with last week, right, I mean, it was 378 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: it was happening again to him. So like I'm I'm 379 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: not a McVeigh. I think McVeigh is awesome and uh, 380 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: but for whatever reason, Kyle, they just play opposite even 381 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: though they're from the same Like the Shanahan's taught him, 382 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 1: he likes to throw it, you know, Kyle. Maybe one 383 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 1: day Kyle will wants his quarterbacks a little bit better, 384 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,920 Speaker 1: but they are They're gonna run the ship out of 385 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,959 Speaker 1: the ball and debot. I think it's scored multiple rushing 386 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 1: touchdowns against them, definitely a passing touchdown and he's throwing 387 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 1: a touchdown. So he has been he has destroyed the 388 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: Rams this year. So can they just somewhat slow him 389 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 1: down or is he just on a mission right now? 390 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: This game to me is this is football porn. I 391 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 1: can't I can't, I can't wait. It's fascinating, yeah, but 392 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: the Rotters points fascinating because one of his biggest downfalls 393 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 1: is he plays in Lambeau and then a bad division. 394 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,360 Speaker 1: So you're you're getting like the one seed in home 395 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: field where you'd rather almost be on the road and 396 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 1: going to these nice weather places if you're Rodgers, and 397 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 1: and that passing off, I think think about the think 398 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:34,879 Speaker 1: about the Niners this year, Stucky. They went two and 399 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 1: four in their division, right, and one ten games because 400 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 1: even Arizona, like I made fun of him, but Arizona 401 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: one eleven games, right, I mean they're tough somehow Seattle 402 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 1: and Pete Carroll owns them. But it's just Seattle's got 403 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: to be the best seven win team in the league 404 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 1: this year. I mean, when Russell they're good, they're not 405 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 1: like they're not a joke. They're not like the Falcons 406 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: or something because of Russell Wilson. So the Niners you 407 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: just get like calloused and you're just better, even though 408 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: you might have a couple of wins less than some 409 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: of these teams. Look at the Bucks, I think they're 410 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: a good example, right that division sucked this year. Yeah, yeah, 411 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 1: it's that. I think McVeigh is great to the one 412 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 1: thing to watch here. You know, I'm the only complaint 413 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 1: of McVeigh is obviously a great like players coach. Offensive mind. 414 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: The one thing where I think he's really poor fourth downs. 415 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 1: And if you look at some of like the wind 416 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: over the last three years, win probability given up. He decisions, Yeah, 417 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 1: he thought he pawns, he kicks field goals this just 418 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 1: when he shouldn't. Um so, and you know, over the 419 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 1: last three years he's actually been the worst and fourth 420 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,360 Speaker 1: down management. So I think that he's actually way too conservative. 421 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:39,679 Speaker 1: Then you have like Stanley who's like way too aggressive 422 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 1: on the other end, um because but most people look 423 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: at mcnaiity you think he's like this young is but 424 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 1: he gets he gets real conservative um at times of 425 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,920 Speaker 1: fourth down decisions. So I'll be watching one thing will 426 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: be interesting. And I think you saw it in the 427 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 1: Bills Chiefs game, because that was essentially, you know, like 428 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 1: a super Bowl matchup, right, like you know, a championship matchup. 429 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 1: Nick McDermott came into that thing. He was gonna come 430 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 1: out throwing haymakers and right away and kind of set 431 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: the tone for the game. And Andy at this point, 432 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 1: once he's won the Super Bowl, he doesn't give a 433 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: shit either, so he'll be pedaled to the medal. Well. Well, 434 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 1: either one of these coaches, you know, I would say 435 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 1: McVeigh has a little more to lose. Just he's at home. 436 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: You know, he's he made the trade for the veteran 437 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 1: quarterback they've traded for von Miller a second and third. 438 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: Does he kind out operating like that or like you said, 439 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,639 Speaker 1: is he because Kyle, to me, the last couple of 440 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 1: weeks has been a little like whatever, we're not supposed 441 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 1: to be here, and he's been a little freer. So 442 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 1: to me, what coaches a little tighter because in that 443 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: in the Chiefs Bills game, they were both letting loose. 444 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 1: And I hope that's the case because I think you 445 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 1: get better games when when that happens. Thanks bro, have 446 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 1: a good have a good weekend, and check stuck you out. 447 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:58,439 Speaker 1: Um Yeah, Action Network podcast it's out right now, So 448 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:22,120 Speaker 1: get your gamble on the game. The volume