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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen twenty, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty twenty five,

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Speaker 2: fifty and the Chicks black the college football world stundar.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, he's double the football. The lateral turn

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Speaker 1: a corner on these up. Do you believe that I

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Speaker 1: came him up the field the night, Holly. It's not

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Speaker 1: the size of the.

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Speaker 2: Dog in the fight. It's the size of the fight

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Speaker 2: in the dog. What's up, the general nation?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus podcast. This is

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Speaker 3: the College Football Bowl Betting Preview, Part four. I'm stuck

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Speaker 3: with me as always as Colin Wilson. You ready to

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Speaker 3: get to some makeshift bowls and the college football Playoff,

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Speaker 3: But this.

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Speaker 1: Is also the podcast where I you to go nuts

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Speaker 1: and talk about the Arkansas Razorbacks. As we cut this

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Speaker 1: podcast and I'm hours away from a flight to Tampa,

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Speaker 1: I will be as loud and crazy as possible. Since

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Speaker 1: we have not been to a bowl game in forever.

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Speaker 1: We got canceled last year. Let's just get right into it.

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Speaker 1: I couldn't be more excited. We are in the meat

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Speaker 1: of the sandwich of the college football bowl season.

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Speaker 2: Well, maybe Arkansas can get the SEC. It's first win

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Speaker 2: and cover of the ball season. The SEC is now

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Speaker 2: zero to four the American Athletic by the way, six

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Speaker 2: and oh and two and oh against the SEC. Yes,

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Speaker 2: I'm including three forfeitted games makes the narrative a little better.

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Speaker 2: Can in Cincinnati keep it going against the Alabam Well,

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about that game in a little bit, but

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Speaker 2: let's jump right in. All right, we have ten bowls

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Speaker 2: to get to. That includes bowl games on Friday, December

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Speaker 2: thirty first New Year's Eve, Saturday, New Year's Day, and

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Speaker 2: then we have one bowl game next week on Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: So let's go in chronological order. Let's start with the

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Speaker 2: Gator Bowl between five and seven Rutgers. Yes, Rutgers is

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Speaker 2: in a bowl and number seventeen Wake Forest, Wake Forest

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Speaker 2: to fifteen to fifteen and a half point favorite here

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Speaker 2: over under sixty two. This game's at eleven am Eastern

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Speaker 2: on ESPN in Jacksonville, Florida. This is the appetizer to

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Speaker 2: the collegetball playoff involving Rutgers, who of course is replacing

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Speaker 2: Texas A and M. I will tell you that it's

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Speaker 2: a very difficult handicap for a couple of reasons. One

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Speaker 2: its motivation is that it could be a key yere

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Speaker 2: like is wake Forest is going to be disappointed to

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Speaker 2: you know, they're playing Rutgers and then Rutgers, you know

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Speaker 2: not they don't have much prep. They just found out

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Speaker 2: about this game, but they probably are really excited to

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Speaker 2: be going to a ball at five and seven. It's

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Speaker 2: important for the program and they're playing, you know, a

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Speaker 2: nationally ranked team on national TV on New Year's Eve.

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Speaker 2: But then again Chiano, based on his comments, I don't

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Speaker 2: know who's playing. So on Monday, he declined to provide

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Speaker 2: information on the team's testing for COVID nineteen. He also

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Speaker 2: refused to say if any of his players who signed

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Speaker 2: with an agent would play, or if any of them

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Speaker 2: got an exemption from the NCAA. He also wouldn't say

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Speaker 2: whether Star Punter it's one of the best players on

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Speaker 2: Rutgers team. That tells you a little bit about them.

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Speaker 2: Adam corseak if he'd be able to make it back

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Speaker 2: from Australian time for the game. He said, I'd rather

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Speaker 2: just show up Friday with our team and let it rip.

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Speaker 2: Can we do that? So we're not finding out any

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Speaker 2: information on Rutgers that includes their leading rusher and their

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Speaker 2: leading receiver. We have no status updates on in Pacheco

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Speaker 2: and Melton. When you look at Rutgers luck, they were

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Speaker 2: five and one against non bowl teams. They were all

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Speaker 2: in six against bowl teams with a scoring margin of

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Speaker 2: two twenty three to fifty eight. That's an average of

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Speaker 2: about thirty seven to ten. They scored thirteen thirteen, thirteen,

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Speaker 2: three zero and sixteen against those Bowl teams. That sixteen

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Speaker 2: came against Merylan's poverty defense. The offense is just dreadful.

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Speaker 2: I mean, their starting quarterback has seven touchdowns and six

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Speaker 2: interceptions on the year, and as I mentioned, they could

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Speaker 2: be without their leading rusher who only averaged three point

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Speaker 2: nine yards per carry end receiver. The special teams are

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Speaker 2: really good, but they might not have their punner. The

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Speaker 2: defense is really good against the run. Their defensive line

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Speaker 2: is really strong. There's seventh in line yards, eighth and

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Speaker 2: stuff rate, but that doesn't matter. It really matter against

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Speaker 2: Lake Forrest wants to throw and they're a really bad

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Speaker 2: passing defense. That is the weakness of this defense. Their

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Speaker 2: ninety seventh pass efficiency's, seventy ninth and sack rate, which

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Speaker 2: means you know, Hartman has really shredded any defense this

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Speaker 2: year where they're not getting endless pressure on him. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, cornerback Tray Avery for Rutgers, he's ranked five

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Speaker 2: hundred and first out of five hundred and second corners

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Speaker 2: in safeties in coverage grade. That's pretty bad. You're down

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Speaker 2: there with like all the UMass corners. You know, their

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Speaker 2: safety ien is brutal and they basically have one good

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Speaker 2: corner in Abraham, one good safety in Avery Young who's

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Speaker 2: good against the run but struggles in coverage. It's not

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Speaker 2: a great matchup for Rutgers here. It is worth noting

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Speaker 2: that wake Far's second leading receiver, Roberson, did opt out,

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Speaker 2: So I don't know. I think that this line is

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Speaker 2: probably around fair. It's a really tough handicap for me.

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Speaker 2: Maybe i'd look under it just yeah, but the wake

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Speaker 2: Forest defense is nothing to write home about. The motivation

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Speaker 2: who's playing for Rutgers. Tough handicap? What do you got here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's only really one handicap you can go off

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Speaker 1: because when you listen to Schiano's comments, you have to

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Speaker 1: take all of the advanced stats for Rutgers with a

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Speaker 1: grain of salt, especially the good ones. If you don't

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Speaker 1: have your players, especially your punter, just showing up and

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Speaker 1: letting it rip. I mean, I don't know how you're

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Speaker 1: not assuming that every fourth down is going to be,

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Speaker 1: you know, an attempt at trying to get a first

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Speaker 1: down instead of a punt. But it's just a bad

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Speaker 1: matchup for Rutgers one hundred and sixteenth and coverage grading.

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Speaker 1: Now they get a wake Forest squad that's top thirty

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Speaker 1: in passing success rate, explosiveness, Rutgers defense one hundred and thirtieth,

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Speaker 1: dead last, and defensive pass expected points. They couldn't have

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Speaker 1: handpicked a better team for wake Forest to go up

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Speaker 1: against for what it is they want to do on offense,

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Speaker 1: and there just isn't much to spay.

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Speaker 2: Rutgers played Michigan tough, like they lost by seven, and

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Speaker 2: you know they got blown out by Maryland. Those two

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Speaker 2: kids tell you everything you need to know about Rutgers,

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Speaker 2: right because Michigan heavy running team, Rutgers is very good

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Speaker 2: against the run. Maryland all that they can't we all

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Speaker 2: do is pass and they got blown out and that's

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Speaker 2: similar to here. And Rutgers didn't score on either defense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it's really important when we talk

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Speaker 1: about these two makeshift Bowls coming up. Here is how

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Speaker 1: much preparation game plan did you put in and practices

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Speaker 1: you put in, and how much of that is applicable

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Speaker 1: to the team you're about to play. So the Rutgers offense,

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Speaker 1: they have a fifty seven percent rush rate, which is

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Speaker 1: exactly where Texas A and M was. And I would

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Speaker 1: say that Wake force isn't great on defense whatsoever, but

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Speaker 1: they were already preparing for the rush with Zach Calzada

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Speaker 1: being out for Texas A and M. So I think

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Speaker 1: there is a little bit of an advantage for Wake

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Speaker 1: on the defensive side because they were already preparing for

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Speaker 1: a heavy rush. Ran in eleven for eleven personnel and

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Speaker 1: ran you know a little bit, you know, sort of

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Speaker 1: pro style schemes with running. Now, if there's one thing

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Speaker 1: we learned from a COVID plague twenty twenty, when you

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Speaker 1: plan these games on the fly and you only give

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Speaker 1: teams a couple of days of real preparation, it hurt

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Speaker 1: the defense. I don't think we could even get away

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Speaker 1: with a single under last year. It was unbelievable with

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Speaker 1: some of these makeshift games. So when you put these

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Speaker 1: together and you put the Wake Forest offense in the

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Speaker 1: middle of that. Since I have no clue what Rutgers

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Speaker 1: is going to be putting on the field, I tend

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Speaker 1: to want to go to d Over, but I can't

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Speaker 1: depend on Rutgers, like you said, So for me, there

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Speaker 1: are a few books out there that have an over

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Speaker 1: thirty seven team total on Wake. This is the best

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Speaker 1: defense Weight could have gotten as far as you know,

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Speaker 1: from a passing explosiveness perspective, and Wake's fifth and offensive

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Speaker 1: finishing drives. I expect them to score on every single possession.

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Speaker 1: Whether that's seven possessions or fourteen possion I don't know.

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Speaker 1: But team total over thirty sevens are out there, and

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Speaker 1: that's what I hit this morning.

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Speaker 2: As I mentioned, Rutgers allowed an average of thirty seven

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Speaker 2: points to the six Bowl teams have played. And you

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Speaker 2: know that's including some of these Big Ten teams who

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Speaker 2: aren't you know when they played Michigan. Michigan wants to

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Speaker 2: run the ball. It's just a really bad matchup for Rutgers.

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Speaker 2: All right, Let's move on to the second Bowl game,

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Speaker 2: and it's on Friday, on New Year's even. This is

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Speaker 2: our other appetizer, and it's a little more appetizing than

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Speaker 2: the first game. That's the Sun Bowl between Central Michigan

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Speaker 2: and Washington State. Central Michigan finished eight and four, Washington

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Speaker 2: State finished seven and five. Washington State seven seven and

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Speaker 2: a half point favorite here over under fifty seven and

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Speaker 2: a half. This game's at noon Eastern on CBS in

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Speaker 2: al Paso, Texas. Couple notes here. Jake Dickert the coach,

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Speaker 2: I mean, Washington State really responded after all the turmoil

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Speaker 2: in the season. He was the interim coach, He's been

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Speaker 2: promoted the head coach. He's made a number of staff

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Speaker 2: changes as Washington will transition from the run and shoot,

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Speaker 2: which they were under their previous coach, who came from Hawaii, Rolovich,

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Speaker 2: and they're gonna go back to a more traditional air raid.

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Speaker 2: But they're keeping the previous staff intact for this game.

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Speaker 2: And Max Borgy their leading rusher, he declared for the

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Speaker 2: NFL Draft, and at Abraham Lucas their star left tackle.

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Speaker 2: He's out, as well as is cornerback Jalen Watson. Washington

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Speaker 2: State really look, they're to think of like a you

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Speaker 2: can kind of think of a leach. It's a run

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Speaker 2: and shoot. It's not an air Ray, but like a

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Speaker 2: leech offense. They aren't fast, but they pass a lot

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Speaker 2: and they are efficient but not explosive. Jade Delara had

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Speaker 2: a really good year. Washington State's defense better in the

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Speaker 2: secondary than there against the run, they're one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty third and rush defensive success rate very poor. Defensive line,

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Speaker 2: they're outside the top one hundred line yards opportunity rates

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Speaker 2: zack great. Central Michigan, on their hand, their metrics suggest

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Speaker 2: very bad secondary and their you know, their offense very

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Speaker 2: Their defense line is very good, a lot of tackles

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Speaker 2: for lost sacks. Better against the run in the past,

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Speaker 2: which isn't great on paper against Washington State, but Central

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Speaker 2: Michigan much improved team the end of the year. They

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Speaker 2: won six to seven to close out the year. That

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Speaker 2: includes four straight with a schedule that had their final

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Speaker 2: six games were all against bowl teams. Their only lost

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Speaker 2: game against Northern Illinois by one point in the game

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Speaker 2: where they led by eighteen and then fumbled up a

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Speaker 2: fuel goal staff to win the game. I mean, just

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Speaker 2: your Northern Illinois voodoo, but very balanced offense. You got

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Speaker 2: Nickeols at running back who ran for over seventeen hundred

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Speaker 2: yards Richardson, a quarterback who took over after the first month,

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Speaker 2: twenty three touchdowns, five interceptions. They have great weapons with Pimpleton, Sullivan,

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Speaker 2: Dixon Wilson at tight end, two really good tackles into

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Speaker 2: your offensive line isn't as strong, and you know, they

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Speaker 2: got some havoc creators on defense and Troy Brown and

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Speaker 2: Troy Harriston up front. I like Central Michigan yere look.

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Speaker 2: I really liked their offense. I really thought they came

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Speaker 2: on at the end of the year, and I think

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Speaker 2: that their their primary weakness here, which is their secondary

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Speaker 2: which is what you would worry about against Washington State,

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Speaker 2: really started to come together at the end of the year.

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Speaker 2: They had some young pieces at corner with Hill and Kent.

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Speaker 2: They started to play a lot better. They grew into

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Speaker 2: their roles. McCoy's been great in the slot all year.

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Speaker 2: Their safeties and linebackers struggling covered something. They had this

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Speaker 2: kid with George Douglas who plays like every down he

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Speaker 2: might be the worst defender in college football. He's really, really,

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Speaker 2: really bad. But just overall their pass defense, and they

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Speaker 2: played some boll teams that can throw it around. They

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Speaker 2: could throw the rock around the field. I mean they

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Speaker 2: played you know, Western Michigan, they played Toledo, they played

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Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan. They played nothing but both teams. To close

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Speaker 2: the year. Washington stayed much tougher center strength of schedule,

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Speaker 2: but they only went two and four against both teams.

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Speaker 2: I think the seven and a half is too many

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Speaker 2: here for a really well balanced Central Michigan team. I

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Speaker 2: think the key is the secondary, well coach team is

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Speaker 2: the secondary got a lot better towards the end of

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Speaker 2: the year. So I took the seven and a half

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Speaker 2: in a game that I don't think should be over five.

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Speaker 2: I've weird with Like you know, it's a unique offense

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Speaker 2: that Washington State runs. So maybe the lack of prep

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Speaker 2: time and just a surprise matchup because if I didn't

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Speaker 2: mention it, Washington State in Central Michigan, they had their

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Speaker 2: games canceled and they came together to meet in Ovaso.

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Speaker 2: So I took the seven and a half here, how

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Speaker 2: about you? What do you say?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this is a game just raw numbers

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Speaker 1: projections on paper. Is a game that I would make

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Speaker 1: Washington State minus eight and a half. But a couple

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Speaker 1: other power ratings that I trust are you know, I've

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Speaker 1: seen them at eight. I've seen I've seen six and

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Speaker 1: a half. I've seen as low as six from another

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Speaker 1: person that I trust with their power numbers. So really

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Speaker 1: the number is right in between where all of us

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Speaker 1: would project it from a raw standpoint. But like we

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Speaker 1: said with the last Bowl game, I think for this

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Speaker 1: Bowl game, you're going to have to focus on how

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Speaker 1: much prep did you do for your previous opponent and

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Speaker 1: is it applicable? And I think you touched on the

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Speaker 1: right points. They're talking about Washington State's offense. So and

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Speaker 1: also the total I projected right at fifty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half, So it's right in line with the market.

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Speaker 1: And you already mentioned it the run and shoot. What

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Speaker 1: Washington State does. Washington State ten personnel on ninety five

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Speaker 1: percent of plays, that's zero tight ends, one running back,

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Speaker 1: spread out the wide receivers. Central Michigan just has a

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Speaker 1: couple of days to get ready for this huge scheme

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Speaker 1: change and travel from Tucson over to El Paso after

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Speaker 1: traveling down to Tucson in the first place. So you

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Speaker 1: know we've mentioned before that this Washington State roster they

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Speaker 1: have been through a lot in the last three years.

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Speaker 1: There have been things off the field that this roster

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Speaker 1: has had to go through, besides playing for their third

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Speaker 1: head coach in what two years, So you know, they

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Speaker 1: have the least amount of travel, they have the least

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Speaker 1: amount of changes and as far as preparation goes. So

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Speaker 1: while a leen Wazoo, there are numbers on the Central

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Speaker 1: Michigan side that they put up in MacPlay they're eighth

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Speaker 1: in the nation and defensive havoc, they're top twenty five

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Speaker 1: against the explosive pass, which is really Wazoo is more

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Speaker 1: of a dink and dunk, but with the scheme changes,

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Speaker 1: to me, this is a Washington State first half bet

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Speaker 1: and it's because Central Michigan did not prepare for a

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Speaker 1: run and shoot ten formation, no tight ends. They were

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Speaker 1: preparing for something completely different. And I think it's going

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Speaker 1: to take adjustments from Jim mckawayan, which is a he's

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Speaker 1: a great head coach and he can make those adjustments.

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Speaker 1: But I think the first quarter, first half as all

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Speaker 1: belongs all to Washington State.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that, But like when I look at

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Speaker 2: this from a match respect, I think Central Michigan with

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Speaker 2: lud Nichols, is going to be able to run the

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Speaker 2: ball down Washington State's through I mean, their run defensive

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Speaker 2: metrics are horrific, and you know, and Central Michigan extremely balanced,

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Speaker 2: a really good of you know, running the ball, throwing

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Speaker 2: the ball, and you know they run it. Probably I

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Speaker 2: would assume I'd only been my numbers in front of

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Speaker 2: me right around league national average on standard downs. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and now you're Oregon State. Washington State is now missing

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Speaker 2: its top corner, and it's missing its leading rusher on

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Speaker 2: the other side of the ball, and it's missing it's

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Speaker 2: star left tackle Tis Greated player on offense in Abraham Lucas,

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Speaker 2: who you know was going to be really important in

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Speaker 2: this game. I know Washington gets rid of the ball,

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Speaker 2: but Central Michigan what they do, tackles for loss, they

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Speaker 2: get after the quarterback they can. So I think that

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Speaker 2: they'll be able to create some havoc, some negative plays here,

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Speaker 2: and they'll be able to move the ball more consistently

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Speaker 2: on the ground. Uh So I like this, Uh the

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Speaker 2: dog here that should be able to move the chains

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Speaker 2: and then also hit some explosives with Washington State's top

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Speaker 2: corner being out. All right, those are the appetizers. They

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Speaker 2: had a little a little sun Bowl a little Gator

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Speaker 2: Bowl and get some some fried some fried Gators, some

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Speaker 2: fried Gator nuggets and uh, you know, sit out in

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Speaker 2: the sun for a half hour with a drink if

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Speaker 2: you're in a warm climate, and then get ready for

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Speaker 2: the college football playoff because at three thirty Eastern it's

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Speaker 2: all gonna start. You have any plans for NEWYEARSZ By

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Speaker 2: the way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna end up watching it. We're gonna stay

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Speaker 1: We're staying in a clear water at a resort, and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna end up staying in uh and watching this

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Speaker 1: Georgia Michigan game.

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Speaker 2: Hotel AIRBNBA.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, we're staying in a flashing the diamond membership

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Speaker 1: at the Hilton Resort and so we'll be uh well,

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Speaker 1: the family will be there. But I'm sure after we're

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Speaker 1: off the beach, the Cincinnati Alabama game will be for

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Speaker 1: me at a tiki bar while my teenagers are posing

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Speaker 1: for Instagram out on the beach. But by the time

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Speaker 1: seven thirty rolls around, it will be an all hands

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Speaker 1: meeting for the family back in front of the TV.

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Speaker 1: Because the Georgia Michigan game, to me is probably the team.

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Speaker 1: Georgia may come in as a one point favorite, but

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Speaker 1: Michigan would definitely be an underdog. That's the game you

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Speaker 1: want to keep your eyes on. To handicap the National Championship,

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Speaker 1: I think this we'll get into it, but I think

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Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Alabama game is extremely basic. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a basic handy cap and I think it's a basic

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Speaker 1: a pretty basic game plan for Alabama.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's start there with the Cotton Bowl Classic. Alabama

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Speaker 2: number one in the nation taking on Cincinnati. Cincinnati is

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Speaker 2: a it's a CONSEETSUS thirteen and a half point underdog

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Speaker 2: to saiday of course finish thirteen at oh over under

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Speaker 2: fifty seven and a half. This game's at three thirty

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Speaker 2: Eastern on ESPN in AT and T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

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Speaker 2: A couple things of note here. It's the College twelve playoffs,

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Speaker 2: so there's not like who's sitting out and who's not

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Speaker 2: the I think the biggest biggest thing to note is

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Speaker 2: that John Metchie will be out for Alabama. He was there,

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Speaker 2: you know, more of their possession receiver. He had close

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Speaker 2: just under one hundred catches on the year. He's hurt

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Speaker 2: and he'll be out. Other than that, it's uh, pretty straightforward, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean it's just looking at the matchup. So when well,

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Speaker 2: I'll let you, I'll let you dive into this first

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Speaker 2: and then I'll try to bounce off you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's I mean to me, I said this when

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Speaker 1: when when these nut lines first came out. The fact

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Speaker 1: that John Menschik the third is out is not just

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Speaker 1: big because he has the most receptions and the most targets.

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Speaker 1: It's because he serves as a blocker for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the wide receiver wide receivers and that is a

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Speaker 1: extremely key player to be losing when you take on

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Speaker 1: this Cincinnati secondary.

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Speaker 2: So it's a it's a huge and like just chain moving,

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Speaker 2: like third down, go, go, get open and find a

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Speaker 2: hole in the defense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, locker room everything. I mean, the reason why, like

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Speaker 1: I said on a previous podcast, the reason Devonte Smith

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Speaker 1: won the Heisman because John Mechi was twenty yards downfield

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Speaker 1: throwing blocks for him. So, but you know what, congrats

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Speaker 1: to the group of five for making the national semifinal.

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Speaker 1: Congrats on having a point spread. Cincinnati, you should pat

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Speaker 1: yourselves on the back. You have a point spread that's

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Speaker 1: lower than when Michigan State and Washington both made the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: So at least you're getting way more respect in the

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Speaker 1: betting market than what some previous Power five teams have got.

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Speaker 1: So that might be the only victory that Cincinnati gets

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Speaker 1: out of this game. The good on good is actually

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Speaker 1: is Alabama offense versus Cincinnati defense. And Bryce Young won

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Speaker 1: the Heisman Trophy thanks in part to being the highest

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Speaker 1: graded quarterback per PFF. Now, it's not because he's a

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Speaker 1: deep bomb thrower like Mac Jones that just sat in

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Speaker 1: a crowd of pocket and hit everybody thirty yards downfield.

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Speaker 1: He took what the defense gave him. He finished with

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Speaker 1: forty two tds to four i iNTS. Almost never makes

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Speaker 1: a mistake. He was only intercepted twice in the one

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Speaker 1: hundred and eighty four dropbacks with pressure this season. That's impressive.

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Speaker 1: You know. The question is who's going to replace John Metchi.

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Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien, Covid free Now took the podium yesterday and

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Speaker 1: it'd be Tuesday and talked about who will be the

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Speaker 1: receivers to replace John Metchi. And I think a lot

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Speaker 1: of people were kind of expecting ag Hall to be

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Speaker 1: the guy that busts out, you know, on the national scene,

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Speaker 1: on the national stage. But the first two names that

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Speaker 1: came out of Bill O'Brien's mouth was ja Cory Brooks

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Speaker 1: and Jojo Earl, So I would look for those two

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Speaker 1: guys to be the ones that get the secondary reads

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Speaker 1: from Bryce Young and get the action. Hall was just

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Speaker 1: mentioned as a guy that's improved according to Bill O'Brien.

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Speaker 1: So whether you know anything we've learned from Brett mc

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Speaker 1: murphy is don't trust anything one coach says. But if

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Speaker 1: they're holding haul back, then they're talking that, you know

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Speaker 1: they're purposely doing it at the podium. So I think

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of questions when it comes to the

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Speaker 1: targets without John Metchi and you know, frankly, the explosive

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Speaker 1: plays that depended on his blocks are not going to

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Speaker 1: be there against Sauce Gardner, against Kobe Bryant, against Brian Cook,

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Speaker 1: who is like the highest graded safety in all of

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Speaker 1: college football. So you know, it's a pretty simple game plan.

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Speaker 1: Brian Robinson Junior came to the podium and said, last

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Speaker 1: time we went to the State of Texas, we got embarrassed.

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Speaker 1: Our team was embarrassed against Texas A and M. We

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Speaker 1: haven't heard that bad in years I am motivated. The

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Speaker 1: whole team is motivated every day to return to the

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Speaker 1: state of Texas and get redemption. He's a fifth year

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Speaker 1: senior running back. Back. Half of the season he was

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Speaker 1: pretty hobbled with injury. He's completely healthy now he comes

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Speaker 1: into this game, and you know, it makes sense for

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Speaker 1: Saban to hold all questions about the wide receiver group

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Speaker 1: back until the National Championship game. It makes sense for

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Speaker 1: him to avoid Gardner Bryant and Brian Cook and Bryce

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Speaker 1: Young has been so good at hitting. Defense is where

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Speaker 1: their weakest in this case, it's a defensive line that

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Speaker 1: always under three hundred pounds. The Cincinnati defensive line is

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Speaker 1: not going to be able to get a push. They're

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Speaker 1: not going to be able to fill the gaps against Georgia.

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Speaker 1: Seth McLaughlin took over its center for Alabama, Chris Owens

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Speaker 1: played the game of his life at right tackle. And

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Speaker 1: more importantly, I think if you go deeper into that

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Speaker 1: box score, Cameron let two lined up twenty two times

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Speaker 1: as a blocker. Kendall Randolph lined up ten times as

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Speaker 1: a blocker. Those both are tight ends, so there was

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Speaker 1: some twelve that was thrown in so that they could

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Speaker 1: get further down the field in running plays, and Alabama

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Speaker 1: only ran twelve and twenty percent of plays this season,

431
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: and when they run twelve, it's absolutely a rushing play.

432
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien was the master of twelve as the Houston

433
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 1: Texans head coach. So when Brian Robinson Junior was healthy,

434
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 1: the fifth year senior running back, Alabama ran him thirty

435
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 1: six times against Old Miss for four touchdowns. The tied

436
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 1: eight up thirty eight minutes of clock. They won forty

437
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 1: two to twenty one. Cincinnati's offense, they're not Old Miss,

438
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: but this is the game plan on offense. You've seen

439
00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 1: the total move down from fifty to eight down to

440
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,439
Speaker 1: fifty seven. I think a part of that is the

441
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 1: fact that Alabama's not going to have explosive passes. They're

442
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,160
Speaker 1: not going to try. They're going to keep their wide

443
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,439
Speaker 1: receiver group kind of quiet for this game. It feels

444
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 1: Notre dameish from last year. So the other question is

445
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 1: the Cincinnati offense. They've flashed a huge increase of formations

446
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 1: as the season has gone along. In Cincinnati's opener, they

447
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 1: ran just four different third third down formations. Against Miami

448
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 1: Ohio a couple weeks ago against East Carolina, they ran

449
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 1: ten different formations. Against Indiana, they ran eight different formations.

450
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 1: So they have been able to adapt to the defense

451
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 1: that's in front of them. Now. I don't know what

452
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 1: they're going to do against this Alabama defense. I don't

453
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: know where the weak spot is. This is. You know,

454
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: they've been shutting rushing attacks down eleventh and defensive havoc,

455
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, the nobody can run on them.

456
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 1: Nobody's been able to pass on them. Cincinnati's tenth and

457
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 1: standard down success rate, but they're eighty third in passing

458
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 1: down success rate, which means if you get Desmond Ritter

459
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 1: and Jerome Ford into passing downs, like if you're at

460
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 1: second and ten, you're already in a pass down. That's

461
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 1: where their success rate completely flies off the table. They

462
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 1: are based on staying in standard downs and doing that

463
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 1: against Alabama is going to be rough. You know that.

464
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 1: I just don't see a situation where Jerome Ford is

465
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 1: moving the pile and getting space against this Alabama front.

466
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 1: With a stuff right rank of tenth, I mean, Alabama

467
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 1: has one hundred and six tackles for loss this season.

468
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 1: I think that's fourth in the nation. They're in everybody's backfield.

469
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: Will Anderson, not even mentioned for the Heisman Trophy, is

470
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 1: probably going to go nuts here. So what do you do.

471
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 1: You probably move the pocket around, You move Desmond Ridder around,

472
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 1: You try to pick your spots, and you know, play

473
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 1: action passing has been a big part of Desmond Ridders' game.

474
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: Eight big time throws, one turnover worthy play. But you're

475
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 1: going up against Christian Harris, one of the highest graded

476
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 1: linebackers in man demand coverage Jalen Umurra Davis and Jordan

477
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: Battle ranked top fifteen of all individual coverage defenders in zone.

478
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 1: I don't think play action is going to work here.

479
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 1: I don't think Desert ritter is going to work. I

480
00:23:56,240 --> 00:24:00,080
Speaker 1: don't think Jerome Ford has the speed. I mean, this

481
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 1: is just a game where Saving gets a three score lead,

482
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 1: and you can bet it's Brian Robinson from here on out.

483
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 1: And then we go back to the drawing board and

484
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: Alabama is going to morph right back into some sort

485
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: of dynamic passing attack for the national championship. So for me,

486
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 1: under but I may get a fifty eight, so I

487
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 1: would I would probably take the fifty seven stop there.

488
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 1: I'm not really so sure about taking a first half under,

489
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 1: Alabama may do what they can and go up tempo

490
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: or slow the tempo down to get those three score

491
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 1: lead and then set on the ball. I believe sitting

492
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 1: on the ball is the game plan for the second

493
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 1: half with the lead. I just don't know what the

494
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 1: pace is going to be in the first half. So

495
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: for me, full game under, this is a game where

496
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 1: the score is stuck. I don't know if you agree,

497
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 1: but I think the game is sitting around nineteen to

498
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 1: twenty one point Alabama lead and that back door is

499
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: way open with four and a half minutes left for

500
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: Cincinnati to try to get in. That's why I'm hesitant

501
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 1: to touch this point spread. And fourteen you're gonna get

502
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 1: a ton of Cincinnati money. At thirteen you're gonna get

503
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: Alabama money. And so I'd rather play live and hit

504
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,959
Speaker 1: Alabama single digits. If there's something crazy with the turnover

505
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: or special teams or anything, that's the game plan for

506
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 1: the side.

507
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: I couldn't disagree more. I think Cincinnati's live live in

508
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 2: this game. I think everyone is drunk on Alabama because

509
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 2: of what they did to Georgia in one game, and

510
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 2: they're just have flashbacks of this is Alabama, what we

511
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 2: saw last year and what people are failing. The same

512
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 2: thing has happened with Georgia. We'll talk about everyone now

513
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,880
Speaker 2: is just George's vulnerable? Who cares about the whole body

514
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 2: of work. We'll just go based on this one game

515
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 2: we just saw. Well, let's just talk about this Alabama

516
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 2: team all year, one of the most inconsistent teams in

517
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 2: the country. All right, let's blow out Miami, Miami team

518
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 2: that ended up being bad. And then we almost lost

519
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 2: to Emory Jones, the same Emory Jones who can't beat

520
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 2: Central Florida in a bowl game. You should have lost

521
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 2: Emory Jones, by the way, and then you know, you

522
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 2: blow up Oh miss You look great. Next week you

523
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 2: lose to Zach Calzada in Texas, and then you know

524
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 2: you bow up Mississippi State. The next week you're you're

525
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 2: right there with Tennessee at home in the fourth quarter

526
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 2: until you pull away late. You almost lost at home

527
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 2: to LSU and their backups in a twenty to fourteen game.

528
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 2: And then at home against Arkansas, you struggle there, you

529
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 2: win by seven in a spot you said, Arkansas, what

530
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 2: didn't even care about? You win forty two to thirty five.

531
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 2: Then you have to go four overtimes to beat TJ. Finley,

532
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 2: who couldn't hit a wide open receiver if his life

533
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 2: depended on it against guess what an AAC team that

534
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 2: beat Auburn in a bowl. You need to win twenty

535
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 2: four to twenty two in a game you should have

536
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 2: lost in four overtimes, and then you blow out Georgia.

537
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 2: I mean this is this is one of the most

538
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 2: inconsistent teas from a covered standpoint, from an offensive line standpoint,

539
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 2: and now you lose Mechi and now everyone just has

540
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 2: crowned Bama. I make this line nine. I think Cincinnati's

541
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,160
Speaker 2: getting way disrespected here. They have the best secondary in

542
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 2: the nation by far, bar none. At Georgia's secondary is

543
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 2: their weakness. That's what Alabama attacked. Good for them, We've

544
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 2: been saying that all year. Georgia secondary hasn't really been tested.

545
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 2: Dy's secondary is in a different stratosphere than Georgia's. They

546
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: have the two best corners in all of college football

547
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 2: and one of the best safeties. I mean, I could

548
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: go on and on about that. They're not gonna get

549
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 2: anything through the air. They're gonna hit some place I'm

550
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 2: just saying, compared to what we saw against Georgia. I mean,

551
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 2: look susquarters given one hundred and thirty six yards and

552
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 2: thirty six targets. He's allowed a twenty quarterback rating twenty.

553
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: The next best is Riley Moss and plays in the

554
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 2: Big Ten is at forty. And then you got Kobe Bryant,

555
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 2: who won the Thorpe Award that pairs allowed three touchdowns

556
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 2: and six interceptions on the year. Gardner, by the way,

557
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 2: Saucequardner is the best corner in college football. Zero touchdowns,

558
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 2: nine interceptions in eleven hundred career snaps. Is that good?

559
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 2: Sounds good? And you know the Cincinnati team, they play

560
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,199
Speaker 2: up and down in their competition all year long. I

561
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 2: expect a really good effort here. Look, I think Alabama's

562
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 2: gonna try to notre dame this game and just run

563
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 2: it a lot. They'll have some success there. But Cincinnati's

564
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 2: still top five EPA per rush on defense. Their linebackers

565
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 2: are excellent, their safeties are excellent, their corners are great.

566
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 2: Loss of Mechi, I think they're gonna feel it. And

567
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 2: on the offensive side of the ball, I'm a little

568
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 2: bit worried. I mean look, you can't run on Alabama.

569
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 2: Alabama is one consistent aspect of their team all year

570
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 2: has been their run defense, and they're, you know, arguably

571
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 2: the best drug defense. So right there with Georgia so

572
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 2: ken Ford, you know, with a little chip on his shoulder,

573
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 2: get much going. I don't know. I don't think they're

574
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 2: gonna have much success. I get it. I think Ritter

575
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 2: needs to use his legs and that's something that has

576
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 2: given saving defenses issues in the past. As a mobile quarterback,

577
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 2: they're gonna have that exposive plays through the air, which

578
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 2: is the strength of the Sincy offense through play action,

579
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 2: and I mean they have an NFL caliber quarterback since

580
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 2: they which is which is big here, so you know,

581
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 2: and just the Metchi loss is big. I mean, besides Williams,

582
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 2: no other Alabama receiver has more than thirty two catches

583
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 2: or three hundred and thirty three yards on the year.

584
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 2: And now you're going up against the best secondary in

585
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: the country. Bama offensive line also just gives up a

586
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 2: ton of negative plays, which since he can exploit I

587
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 2: mentioned they have great linebackers paced to Blanco Beavers, Sanders

588
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 2: is great off the edge, Curtis Brooks is a pass

589
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 2: rusher on the interior. So this is the best secondary

590
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: that Alabama will face all year. And this is an

591
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 2: Alabama team that could have lost to Auburn, could have

592
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 2: lost LSU, could have lost Arkansas, could have lost to Florida.

593
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 2: I mean that can go on and on. So I'll

594
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 2: be interesting to see what Alabama does with Jamison Williams.

595
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 2: I think a spot because that's where you have to attack.

596
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 2: That's where you have to attack. Cincinnati and they put

597
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: Houston put Dell was one of the best receivers in

598
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 2: the country and the slat a season. I fifty three

599
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 2: snaps in that AAC Championship game and yeah, you know,

600
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 2: he had a really big, big game. So I think

601
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 2: that I love Cincinnati, especially if you can get fourteen.

602
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 2: Wouldn't be shocked to win this game out right. Heard

603
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 2: it here first. And I actually have them in a

604
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 2: round robin underdog moneyline parlay. Maybe I'll look full let's fire.

605
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: They're fucking two touchdown under ad they have blown out,

606
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 2: so be it. But I see a lot of paths

607
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 2: to success here. And I just think this Alabama team, Look,

608
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 2: we get good Alabama, they can blow them out. We

609
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 2: get bad Alabama, they'll lose this. It'll go to four

610
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 2: overtimes and hopefully TJ. Finley hits a wide open guy

611
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 2: where they decide to go for two. Cincinnati, I think

612
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 2: is gonna be aggressive. I think there's gonna be a

613
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 2: ton of Cincinnati fans here. I think they might even

614
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 2: know that home field advantage, like from the crowd. I mean,

615
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 2: Alabama's been here a million times. They're gonna go here

616
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 2: and travel on New Year's Eve. Everyone I talked to

617
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 2: in a lot anywhere affiliated with the Cincinnati programs like

618
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 2: a once in a lifetime opportunity to go to this game.

619
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 2: So I think there's gonna be eighty percent Cincinnati fans

620
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: in the crowd. I think the Tickle is gonna be

621
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 2: really aggressive here. They're not gonna kick field goals. They're

622
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 2: gonna go for it on fourth down, so like you

623
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 2: don't have a field goal kicker anyway. I think since

624
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 2: he's live, they'll be in this game. I expect the

625
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 2: game plan from Bama to run the ball, power heavy,

626
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 2: try to notre dame this game. But the Cincinnati secondary

627
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 2: is the best in the nation. It's gonna keep them

628
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: in this game. Ridder can make enough plays. You like

629
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: the under, I like Cincy. I like the Bama team

630
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 2: total under thirty five and a half.

631
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: I listen, I'm not gonna follow you for taking for

632
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: taking Cincinnati out right here. I mean, I mean, there's

633
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: a few double digit dogs. I had my eyes on

634
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: durned Bull season, But Cincinnati does have a path to

635
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 1: give Alabama some problems, and I just think they're always

636
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 1: going to be within striking distance. And plus, look at

637
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 1: Alabama's game plan, it's just rushing, so you know, a

638
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 1: milking clock. Definitely, I would love it if you're right,

639
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 1: if Cincinnati has some success, I definitely would not mind

640
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 1: getting in live on Alabama in a lower number. But

641
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: I think everybody should keep in mind when it comes

642
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: to live betting, these two head coaches rank second and

643
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 1: seventh and middle eight. Pay attention to win, who wins

644
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 1: the coin flip, pay attention who's going to get back

645
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: to back possessions at halftime, and the live betting will

646
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: take on from there. So if you don't join stuck

647
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: on the side, you can definitely follow me from my

648
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 1: all hands family meeting in front of the TV while

649
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 1: I'm pushing some cash over on some live betting on

650
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: the side here.

651
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I believe that the under thirty five and

652
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 2: a half on Bama team total and my since he

653
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 2: plus four, I have some plus sixteen and a half

654
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 2: and plus fourteen, I probably had some plus thirteen and

655
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: a half. But I'm sure that there'll be public one

656
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: Obama to push this back up at one point to fourteen.

657
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 2: And they're correlated in a way. I don't see Cincinnati

658
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 2: being able to get to you know, twenty eight here,

659
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 2: and so not only are they correlated, so there's also

660
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 2: a chance where if Bama, just if Ritter has a

661
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 2: really bad game and they can't run the ball and

662
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 2: then Alabama is just running it and notre daming this game,

663
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 2: which they didn't notre dame, there's a chance Alabama wins

664
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 2: this game like thirty one ten too. So I think

665
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 2: that there's there's a way that you can get the

666
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 2: the team total under Obama and then not cover.

667
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 1: But I want to be flashy. They don't want to

668
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: be flashy heading none of the National Championship game.

669
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 2: Just like yeah, especially especially if if you assume they're

670
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 2: going to get Georgia again, because George is the favorite.

671
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 2: You just threw all over Georgia, right, and now you

672
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 2: don't have Mechi, and it's like, do we really want

673
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 2: to show more of what we're doing for our passing attack?

674
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 2: Because that's all george is gonna be fun. Georgia wins this.

675
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: If Georgia beats Michigan. We're talking about the game in

676
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 2: a second. The entire prep for Georgia over from between

677
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 2: Saturday and the National Championship will be how do we

678
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 2: stop Jamison Williams, Bryce Young and the Alabama passing attack? Right,

679
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 2: So you probably don't. You just played them, showed them

680
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 2: a lot. You probably don't want to show a lot

681
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 2: more on tape. All right, Let's move on to that

682
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 2: second College twelve playoff game, and that's the Orange Bowl

683
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 2: between number two Michigan and number three Georgia. Georgia is

684
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 2: a seven and a half point favorite here over under

685
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 2: forty five forty five and a half this game that

686
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 2: we played at hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida,

687
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 2: seven thirty eastern on ESPN. Georgia was dealing with COVID

688
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 2: issues earlier during Bowl prep. Seemed to be okay now,

689
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 2: but it's something to keep an eye on. Dax Hill

690
00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 2: for Michigan didn't travel with the team. Maybe travel with

691
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 2: the team. Sounds like he didn't because of COVID. Who

692
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 2: knows if he'll be there in time for the game.

693
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 2: That's a massive loss if he's out. Other than that,

694
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 2: I guess there's the quarterback question with Georgia, but it

695
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 2: looks like I assume Stetson Bennett is going to start.

696
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 2: Any other news worthy things here, Georgia's defensive coordinator is leaving.

697
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 2: But it's a comfortable playoff games. You can expect all

698
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 2: hands on deck. Dex Hill was the main body to

699
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 2: watch there. I will get into this game in a second.

700
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 2: I'll go off of you again. What do you see here?

701
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,879
Speaker 1: I think using Dan Lanning defensive coordinator for Georgia going

702
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 1: to Oregon, you know, as narrative as to why Georgia,

703
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 1: you know, won't be playing their best in this game

704
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 1: is a little, like I said, narrative street because what

705
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 1: helps in a recruiting when you're on a recruiting visit

706
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 1: inside of a player's house in front of his parents,

707
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 1: having a national championship. Bring on. So I don't think

708
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 1: Dan Lanning is like one of these one foot out

709
00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 1: the door and I don't care about this, so I

710
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: would put that it's called quo playoff. Yeah, So the

711
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 1: one thing that sticks out to everyone is that David

712
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 1: the Jabo and Aiden Hutchinson are wrecking crew and they

713
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: cannot be stopped. Right now, that's on everybody's brain. And

714
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: in passing downs that is absolutely the truth, where they

715
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 1: have a pass rush grade of third for Michigan per PFF.

716
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: But when you flip over to the rush defense, it's

717
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 1: a completely different story. One hundred and ninth and stuff

718
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 1: rate fifty third in standard downs line yards, there are

719
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 1: five running backs with at least forty five carries for Georgia.

720
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 1: You throw stets in Bennetts tw hundred ninety three rushing

721
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 1: yards in there, and there is a long list of

722
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: names that can keep Michigan defense in standard downs. Of

723
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: Bennett's rushing yards, half of them have come on design calls.

724
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 1: So you know, we mentioned that what Alabama is in

725
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: man and zone coverage and how good they've been. Michigan's

726
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: been better in the back seven. I mean they're great

727
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: at just as high with you know, leading off with

728
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 1: DJ Turner. So I don't think George is going to

729
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 1: line up and try to throw the ball down the field,

730
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,360
Speaker 1: especially with Stetsan Bennett, and if the offense is not

731
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 1: capable of getting the ball, you know, running on the stefens,

732
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 1: which they should be able to. I mean, the Jabo

733
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 1: and Hudginson are coming so hard off the you know,

734
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: especially off the edges. They're running it up the gut

735
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 1: and maybe right in order. But we'll see what happens,

736
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 1: because I think if they get into passing downs consistently,

737
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 1: Todd Munkin may elect to put in JT. Daniels. And

738
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: you know, I've heard from practice reports that he is

739
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 1: throwing the ball a lot more. So it's going to

740
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 1: be interesting if tempo is where Todd Munkin goes with

741
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: the running game, keeps substitutions from coming on the field,

742
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 1: but taking advantage of this defensive line, in this defensive

743
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 1: front seven. From a run game perspective, that's what the

744
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 1: game plan is going to be. If Michigan is able

745
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 1: to get into passing downs, we'll probably see JT. Daniels

746
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 1: because Stetsan Bennett, when he has pressure, he's had more

747
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: turnover worthy plays than big time throws. He has an

748
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:51,839
Speaker 1: adjusted completion percentage that drops thirty percent when he has

749
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 1: a crowded pocket. He does not like pressure whatsoever. JD. Daniels.

750
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: If you combine some of his numbers from this year

751
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 1: last year, he's pretty smooth, especially when the blitz is on.

752
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 1: He has no drop whatsoever and is adjust a completion

753
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 1: rate when he has blitz on him. When you look

754
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: over the past two years sample size at Georgia, I

755
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 1: think quick outs over to a job over a Jabo

756
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,320
Speaker 1: and Hutchinson. That's going to be the key in passing downs.

757
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: Treyvon Henderson was targeted five times out of the backfield

758
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:18,800
Speaker 1: did some damage for Ohio State against the Michigan defense.

759
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 1: As to where Jackson Jackson Smith, Nijigba and Garrett Wilson

760
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 1: and Chris Olave after they caught the ball, they were

761
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: allowed no extra yards whatsoever. So Georgia, like Alabama, I think,

762
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 1: is going straight rush. They have five guys that can

763
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 1: do it. That's a huge stable to give a month

764
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: to get healthy with this offensive line, I think Munkin's

765
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 1: going to go look at the Wisconsin tape and see

766
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 1: how they attack them five yards per play on standard downs.

767
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: Wisconsin had two explosive drives. How often we said that

768
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 1: this year, So that's going to be the game plan

769
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 1: I think from an offensive perspective. Big handicap though, comes

770
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 1: on the other side of the ball and the big

771
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: you know, Blake Korm, Hassan Haskins, Donovan Edwards. Are they

772
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 1: going to keep Michigan out of passing downs because the

773
00:37:57,640 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 1: team that has more passing downs in this game is

774
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,879
Speaker 1: the loser period on offense. Cave McNamara having to throw

775
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 1: in passing downs is not what Michigan is trying to

776
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,760
Speaker 1: get to. So my guess is that Devonte Wyatt, Jordan Davis,

777
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,280
Speaker 1: you know, their top twenty and standard down line yards,

778
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 1: they're tenth in opportunity rate. Teams are not running on

779
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 1: Georgia whatsoever. This will be the best rush defense for

780
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: yet Ohio State. I mean, this would be probably the

781
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 1: best rush defense that they've faced that includes Wisconsin. And

782
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: there are eight defenders. This is what I couldn't believe.

783
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:29,720
Speaker 1: Go go out to PFF dump out individual run defense

784
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:33,399
Speaker 1: grades for all the players top two hundred individual eight

785
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 1: of them are Georgia players and that's like cutting, that's

786
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 1: making sure that they've played at least three hundred STAPs.

787
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: So I mean eight individual players in the top two

788
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 1: hundred against the run. This is going to be really

789
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 1: tough for Michigan. Both these teams are excellent special teams.

790
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: Both these teams are top six and tackling. I think

791
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 1: Mike McDonald, you know, coming in from the Ravens is great.

792
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 1: He is revamped the entire coverage scheme. The entire way

793
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 1: that the back seven has worked for Michigan is what's

794
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 1: got them here to this point. My opinion is the

795
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 1: chance that they've made to finally get over that Ohio

796
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 1: state hump. But it's not applicable to Georgia at all.

797
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 1: You're gonna have to be able to defend the run,

798
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 1: which they've had a problem with. So as for the number,

799
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 1: I make it eight. I know sp plus makes this six.

800
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 1: And considering the entire state of Michigan is going to

801
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 1: be gambling on this on their Wolverines, there's going to

802
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 1: be some pretty heavy money on Michigan. And you're going

803
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 1: to see sharp pitted at seven. And I'm starting to

804
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: see some shart books out there right now deflate the juice.

805
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: I think we're going to get a seven at some point,

806
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 1: and you're probably gonna end up seeing some buyback on Georgia.

807
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 1: You know, as for the total, if Jtdanos comes into

808
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: this game, or Stetsan Bennett is running up tempo with

809
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: a heavy rush attack, they can take advantage of this

810
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 1: Michigan team. They can get some points upon the board. Now,

811
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 1: let's not forget the Georgia secondary can be taken advantage

812
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 1: of Alabama. Did it They finally proved that this young,

813
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,359
Speaker 1: raw secondary that wasn't tested all year can be taken

814
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 1: advantage of. So I expect JJ McCarthy or Cave McNamara

815
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 1: to get an explosive player two. When they're in passing downs,

816
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 1: they'll get their points. I just don't think that they

817
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 1: can keep up with what Georgia is going to try

818
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: to do, which is steamroll them and stay out of

819
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:10,399
Speaker 1: passing down. So Georgia at seven, I'm interested over forty five.

820
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 1: I've already bought. I think that number is going to

821
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 1: continue to go up with a really closer to the game.

822
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, a low number on a for a college football semifinal.

823
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 2: This is all Georgia for me. I think this is

824
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:26,879
Speaker 2: a horrendous matchup for Michigan. Dug into this game really deep.

825
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 2: All I want is seven. I just want the seven

826
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 2: to pop, so I can hit Georgia and look, the

827
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 2: Georgia secondary, which we had questions about all year, was

828
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 2: exposed by Alabama. Yeah, that was a Heisman Trophy winning

829
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:44,720
Speaker 2: quarterback and Jameis Williams that wide receiver. Michigan's passing attack

830
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:48,320
Speaker 2: is not that. This is Michigan's passing attack is similar

831
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 2: to some of the average sc run first teams. That

832
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 2: Georgia completely shut down during the rego season. And just

833
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 2: like everyone was crowned Bama already, did we forget about

834
00:40:56,600 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 2: Georgia all year long? Unlike Alabama? They just dominate and

835
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 2: everybody they played, Do we forget about that all of

836
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 2: a sudden? And you know when I look at the

837
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,320
Speaker 2: matchup here Michigan, Look, these are two slower paced teams

838
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 2: that like to run it. They're both outside the top

839
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 2: ninety and adjusted pace. But I mean, for example, Michigan's

840
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 2: eighty seventh at EPA per pass and Georgia is number

841
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 2: one in a lot of categories against the pass. We

842
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,280
Speaker 2: saw them get exposed last year, but you know they

843
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 2: I mean, for example, Michigan is the same exact success

844
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 2: rate on runs that it does on passes. It's pretty

845
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 2: hard to do, but you cannot run on Georgia. You

846
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 2: cannot do it. They you know they're gonna play with

847
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 2: two high safeties, and you mentioned some of their run grades.

848
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 2: How about this take interior run defenders. Three of the

849
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:46,720
Speaker 2: top four in the country are on Georgia. Whyatt, Davis

850
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 2: and Carter. The other one is musta for Penn State

851
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 2: who was out. That three of the top four, and

852
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 2: that frees up Dean in company. They also excel against

853
00:41:55,400 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 2: inside zone. Just dominate inside zone, which Michigan loves to run.

854
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:05,399
Speaker 2: Michigan's also struggled immensely with stunts and twists. That's all

855
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 2: Georgia does up front on the other side of the

856
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 2: ball and also the other side the ball when and

857
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 2: by the way, Michigan number one in EPA on trick

858
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 2: plays this season by like a wide margin. Georgia very

859
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:20,840
Speaker 2: disciplined defense. I don't think he can expect to get

860
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 2: a lot there. And then Brittany, who didn't play for

861
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 2: Georgia their slot. I don't know why he didn't play

862
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:28,800
Speaker 2: against Alabama, but Alabama feasted with Williams and then in

863
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,280
Speaker 2: the slot, I expect him to come back. Chris Smith,

864
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 2: who was little banged up at safety. He should be

865
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 2: healthy here, so the secondary will be healthier. And I

866
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 2: don't think Michigan can attack it the same way that

867
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 2: Alabama did. I'm not even close. On the other side

868
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 2: of the ball, I think Michigan does have some weaknesses

869
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 2: against the run. I think Georgia will be able to

870
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:50,799
Speaker 2: run the ball here. No, Dax Hill would be huge,

871
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 2: especially against Brock Powers is just a stud at tight

872
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 2: end and Michigan, you know, Georgia's number one in the

873
00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 2: country an EPA per pass on early downs play action

874
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 2: teams are so worried about the run they're throwing on

875
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 2: play action. Well, Michigan four point three yards per play

876
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 2: allowed on non play action dropbacks, seven on play action

877
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 2: dropbacks allowed, one hundred and fourteen passer rating against play action.

878
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 2: That's bad here. That's a really bad sign. So ken

879
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 2: Michigan get I mean with the keys, you gotta get

880
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 2: Bettett playing from behind or in clear passing situations. I

881
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 2: don't think Michigan is going to be able to do

882
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 2: that here. And you know it's this is a Georgia

883
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 2: team that dominated everyone all year, lost in the SEC

884
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 2: Championship in embarrassing fashion. Had to sit on that for

885
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 2: a month, everyone hearing Georgia the same old Georgia. I

886
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 2: expect them to come out with their hair on fire

887
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:51,799
Speaker 2: as a team that just was dominant all year long.

888
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:56,320
Speaker 2: People are forgetting that recency bias city. Everyone's remembering the

889
00:43:56,360 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 2: Michigan beat Ohio State in a blizzard. I think Georgia,

890
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 2: this is just a look Michigan. I give them a

891
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 2: ton of respect for getting or getting over the Ohio

892
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 2: State hump. They deserve to be in the College ball playoff.

893
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 2: I don't think it'll be a complete blowout, but I

894
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 2: think the Michigan offense is gonna struggle. Really good matchup

895
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:15,760
Speaker 2: for the Georgia defense, and it's a really good matchup

896
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:19,280
Speaker 2: for the Georgia offense across the board. And now Michigan's

897
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 2: not gonna beat itself with penalties and turnovers, which is

898
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:23,840
Speaker 2: a good thing in a game like this. But I

899
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 2: think there this is just a really poor matchup. I

900
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 2: want the seven. I want Georgia. This is still the

901
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 2: best team in the country.

902
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 1: Agree completely, and I'll be with you on the seven

903
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 1: and then we'll see box score adjustments. Early talk here.

904
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:41,799
Speaker 1: I think we make I make Georgia about minus one

905
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: minus one and a half against Alabama, and uh we'll

906
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 1: see how that plays out. But if Cincinnati wins, you

907
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 1: know with your prediction that I think this spread to

908
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 1: be a little bittre than one and a half. But

909
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:50,760
Speaker 1: we'll see.

910
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,479
Speaker 2: So I don't think they're gonna that's my prediction. Fine,

911
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 2: I'll make it my prediction.

912
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 1: They'll cover, all right, Cincinnati will cover, so I know

913
00:44:58,920 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a shot.

914
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 2: I think the gonna have a shot to win if

915
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 2: that happened, I'm on the money line. I Cincinnati Georgia

916
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 2: rematch from last year in the natural title. You heard

917
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 2: it here at first and the only place you'll hear it.

918
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I would prefer that to not happen. And

919
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 1: because if listen, if Cincinnati does come.

920
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 2: I would prefer not to happen too, because I want

921
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 2: to bet Georgia gets Alabama, So I need Alabama here

922
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 2: if they're gonna win, win by uh ten yeah.

923
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 1: Yeah. If you get Cincinnati covering this game and actually

924
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 1: giving Alabama any kind of scare in the second half.

925
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 2: If Alabama's gonna win, I want since you to cover

926
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 2: via back door down seventeen rate.

927
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 1: Because this national championship spread is going to be Georgia

928
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 1: minus three and a half, and I don't want that.

929
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 1: I want this to be a minus one minus one

930
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 1: and a half. You can get ahead of the steam

931
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 1: on one side, buy back on the other. You get

932
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 1: ten days to do it. I do not want if

933
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 1: Cincinnati challenges Alabama, we get a bad national title spread. Period.

934
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm still at Georgia over three over a field

935
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 2: goal I didn't over. I didn't like completely think that

936
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 2: the Alabama all of a sudden this last year's They've

937
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 2: done this all year, great performances. Bad Woman was a

938
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 2: great performance against Georgia, and uh yeah, I still have

939
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 2: Georgia over a three point favorite on a vital field

940
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 2: against Alabama. But we we will save that talk for

941
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 2: another day. All Right, that does it for Friday. Let's

942
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 2: move on to Saturday. Let's talk the Outback Bowl between

943
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 2: Penn State and Arkansas. Arkansas is a one point favorite

944
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:29,279
Speaker 2: over under forty eight this game that we played at

945
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 2: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, neon Eastern on ESPN two.

946
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 2: Let me get the news out of the way. Penn

947
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 2: State lost. If that's accorded to Brent Prye, who left

948
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 2: for a Virginia text job. I don't think they've named

949
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 2: the DC for this. For the bowl game, both of

950
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 2: Penn State's leading tacklers to both their linebackers, Brandon Smith

951
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 2: and Ellis Brooks, opted out, as did safety Chapuon Brisker,

952
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 2: who will play in the NFL. Just three massive losses.

953
00:46:55,480 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 2: Javon Dotson, they're all everything receiver, he also is not

954
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 2: playing here. And then on the Arkansas side, Traylon Burks

955
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 2: their star receiver, he declared for the NFL Draft. They

956
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 2: also lost Trey Williams to a DWI my quick handycap

957
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:16,240
Speaker 2: in this game. Arkansas, by the way, much tougher schedule.

958
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 2: Both teams like the use pace garious to get your

959
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 2: thoughts there. Penn State offense, I mean, it's ugly. If

960
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 2: you look at some of the metrics, they're outside the

961
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 2: top ninety DPA per play and success rate and creating

962
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,720
Speaker 2: out right around average nationally when you adjust for schedule.

963
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 2: That's because they can't run the ball at all at all,

964
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 2: like one of the worst rushing teams in the country.

965
00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 2: And now you remove Dotson for the passing attack. So

966
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 2: I think that there's a lot of a lot of

967
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 2: pass to success for this Arkansas defense. And then the

968
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,240
Speaker 2: other side of the ball. What can Arkansas do without

969
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 2: the explosiveness of Burks That's the primary question here. But

970
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 2: Penn State defense missing both of their leading tackles at

971
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:55,760
Speaker 2: linebacker and noother star safety. Big losses there. I played

972
00:47:55,760 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 2: some Arkansas here at plus one. I think when you

973
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 2: adjust the rosters and look at the matchup, they're the

974
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 2: better team here clearly, and maybe the SEC is due

975
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 2: for a win. At the minimum, you'll be here. This

976
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 2: is your team. What's the handicap? Yeah, well, imagine if

977
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 2: the SECS has no wins by noon on Saturday, that

978
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 2: means it's a Michigan Cincinnati final.

979
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 1: Woo pig suy absolute dumpster fine dumpster final. I don't

980
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:28,839
Speaker 1: know how we win a game the rest of the year.

981
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,400
Speaker 1: Just blow a program up, give us a death sentence.

982
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 1: Collins talking razorback football. Sam Pittman has been a covering

983
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 1: machine fourteen seven and one against the spread since he

984
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 1: took over in Arkansas. Through two years. This team could

985
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 1: not be more excited. They have won every rivalry trophy

986
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: this year, from battle Line to the Boot to the

987
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: Southwest Cap Classic against Texas A and M, and now

988
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,760
Speaker 1: they've got their eyes set on the Outback Bowl. Losing

989
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:59,359
Speaker 1: Traylon Burks is tough. If Arkansas was going to spend

990
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:01,399
Speaker 1: the majority of this game and passing downs, I don't

991
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:03,399
Speaker 1: think they are now. One thing to look out for

992
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 1: is Tyson Morris. The next biggest target on the list

993
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 1: from a wide receiver perspective is Tyson Morris. He did

994
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 1: not make the scheduled flight with the Hogs down to Tampa.

995
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 1: You know, Pittman said it's personal, So I'll just leave

996
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 1: it up to that. Maybe he'll be here Wednesday for practice.

997
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,640
Speaker 1: There is no word as of this morning whether Tyson

998
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 1: Morris is landed on the ground down in Saint Pete

999
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 1: or Tampa to get ready for this game. So Arkansas

1000
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 1: may be extremely limited in who they're going to hit downfield,

1001
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:33,759
Speaker 1: But are they going to Is Kaj Jefferson going to

1002
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 1: need to throw downfield? I don't think that they're going

1003
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 1: to be in passing downs that much because what you

1004
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 1: have is an elite running back unit. Dominique Johnson and

1005
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 1: Raheem Sanders, they're two yards away. Each of them are

1006
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 1: two yards away from Arkansas having four players that have

1007
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:52,600
Speaker 1: five hundred rushing yards on the season. Raheem Sanders, you know,

1008
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 1: started getting nicked up, banged up, bruised up towards the

1009
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 1: end of the season. His production went down. DOMINIQE. Johnson

1010
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 1: the last two games was nicked up, bruised up. They've

1011
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:02,720
Speaker 1: now all had a month to get fresh and ready.

1012
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:04,920
Speaker 2: So not by the way as of twenty minutes, a

1013
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 2: guy Tyson Morris, good to go.

1014
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 1: Good to go. We have an option for kJ Jefferson

1015
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 1: to throw to in passing downs. It's good to know

1016
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 1: that he's in town and he's probably cleared COVID protocols

1017
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:17,400
Speaker 1: and he's going to be there. So this is a

1018
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 1: run first option with Kendall Brows and they're going to

1019
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 1: go hard at Penn State. And listen that you already

1020
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 1: mentioned PJ. Mustafer. The rush defense for Penn State has

1021
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:29,839
Speaker 1: been atrocious since he went down defensive interior. He's out

1022
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 1: of this game. Illinois went for over three hundred and

1023
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 1: fifty yards between the tackles, and you know Penn State

1024
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 1: has had to adjust since then. Now you're taking off

1025
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 1: their top two linebackers, who are also their top two tacklers,

1026
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 1: and you're taking Brisker out of the secondary. I can't

1027
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 1: see Arkansas getting into passing downs. I think between kJ Jefferson,

1028
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 1: you know designed runs, kJ Jefferson getting mobile outside the

1029
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 1: tackles if they get into a third and long situation,

1030
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 1: I just think this is a really bad deal for

1031
00:50:57,440 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 1: the Penn State defense. Not only lost or coordinator. We

1032
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 1: don't know who's called plays, and as far as tempo goes,

1033
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 1: these teams are thirteenth and thirty fourth in tempo and

1034
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:06,880
Speaker 1: I expect Kendall Briles to pick it up to eliminate

1035
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 1: substitutions on the field. I think on the other side

1036
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 1: of the ball is where you're gonna want to stop

1037
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 1: buying Arkansas. At minus one, Trey Williams is not going

1038
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 1: to be playing in this game. Defensive edge for Arkansas.

1039
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 1: That should give Sean Clifford a little bit more time

1040
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 1: to throw. Mike Erisich has done an amazing job a

1041
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 1: getting Shan Clifford to eliminate mistakes. But we've already mentioned it.

1042
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 1: They've lost Jehan Dotson. Dotson was everything you know. There

1043
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 1: may be no other offense in the entire country that

1044
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 1: is more dependent on a single player. Where Dotson had

1045
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty eight pass targets this season. It's

1046
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 1: just a recipe for Arkansas to just absolutely steamroll Penn State,

1047
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 1: you know, from the offensive perspective. Now on defense, I

1048
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 1: get a little bit nervous. Jalen Catalan's been out for

1049
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 1: a while. He will return next season. Barry ot Of,

1050
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, doesn't mind you getting all the available yards

1051
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:57,440
Speaker 1: in between the twenties. He just wants the you know,

1052
00:51:57,480 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 1: the defense to be stout in the red zone. So

1053
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:02,200
Speaker 1: I expect Penn State to actually kind of move the ball,

1054
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 1: especially with Trey Williams out not applying any pressure. But

1055
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 1: I don't know who the players are that he's going

1056
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 1: to hit, and I don't know who's going to score

1057
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,360
Speaker 1: any points because this team is atrocious from a finishing

1058
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:11,320
Speaker 1: drives perspective.

1059
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, they can't run it. That's why they can't run it.

1060
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:15,320
Speaker 2: And now you have Donson.

1061
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 1: Can't run it. Yeah, I can't run it, can't throw it.

1062
00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 1: You know, Penn State fell outside the top fifty and

1063
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 1: tackling this season. That's a reflection of coaching and without

1064
00:52:23,040 --> 00:52:25,640
Speaker 1: Brent Pry, I think that's going to get it even worse.

1065
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:27,839
Speaker 1: We've seen money come in on the over. It got

1066
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 1: down to forty seven, and there's some over money, big

1067
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:31,719
Speaker 1: over money that hit it and popped it back up

1068
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:34,439
Speaker 1: to forty eight. So my guess there is is when

1069
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 1: Arkansas's running backs who are fresh bust through that line,

1070
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 1: which everyone else has been able to do since PJ.

1071
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 1: Mooster went out, these could be like twelve yard type

1072
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 1: games and they may run this defense ragged. And there's

1073
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:49,239
Speaker 1: one thing I know about this Arkansas team, They're on

1074
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 1: a mission grant more than these seniors that are on

1075
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 1: this defense that have been through three different head coaches

1076
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 1: haven't been to a bowl ever. We're not taking knees,

1077
00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 1: we're not running slow. If the over is going to hit,

1078
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 1: it's because the secondary and the linebackers, fresh linebackers off

1079
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 1: the Penn State defense can't tackle whatsoever. And the tackling

1080
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 1: metrics went down the last half of the season for

1081
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 1: Penn State. So you know, uh, I'm with Arkansas all

1082
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:17,239
Speaker 1: the way. Projected total for you, I think one you

1083
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 1: stop buying, you look for maybe a juice money line.

1084
00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 1: But yeah, this is wupig Suey. I'll be in the

1085
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 1: building and I look forward to seeing everybody.

1086
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 2: Oh you can tackle. You can make it. Go out

1087
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:28,759
Speaker 2: there and make a tackle on a on a play

1088
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:31,880
Speaker 2: if we need you, or pull a pull a fire alarm.

1089
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 1: Or something woo pig suey.

1090
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm with you. I wanted the under, assuming

1091
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 2: that Dotson and Brooks we're gonna be out, but not

1092
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:44,400
Speaker 2: you know, these not anymore. These teams run pace and

1093
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:47,760
Speaker 2: then all of the Penn State opt outs on defense

1094
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 2: are huge, like you mentioned, they're tackling issues with their

1095
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 2: two best tacklers at linebacker are out, and then their

1096
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 2: top safety is out, and then Arkansas has some issues

1097
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:58,800
Speaker 2: on defense and you're throw in the pace. There no

1098
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 2: thank you on the under, be on the over, huge Williams,

1099
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:07,919
Speaker 2: no Catalan. So all right, from your team to mine

1100
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:10,759
Speaker 2: another SEC team. Maybe it'll be down to Kentucky to

1101
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:15,480
Speaker 2: get the first SEC win at one pm Eastern and

1102
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 2: hopefully you don't have to leave Tampa and head to

1103
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 2: Orlando in the first half of Arkansas's down you know,

1104
00:54:22,239 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 2: thirty one nothing to go catch a competitive bowl game

1105
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 2: one pm Eastern.

1106
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:30,840
Speaker 1: My wife, who is Iowa like Iowa born bred everything,

1107
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 1: like she's not happy this game's at the same time

1108
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 1: as a Razorbacks. So maybe we will be at halftime

1109
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 1: on the way down to ORLANDAH.

1110
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 2: You might be heading do Orlando camp Camping World Stadium

1111
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 2: for the Citrus Bowl. As number fifteen Iowa, we'll take

1112
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:44,800
Speaker 2: on number twenty two Kentucky. Kentucky is out to a

1113
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:48,800
Speaker 2: three point favorite over under forty four. A couple of

1114
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 2: notes here. Iowa star center Tyler Linderbaum, who's well, I

1115
00:54:53,680 --> 00:54:56,279
Speaker 2: would argue, the best center in the country. Projected to

1116
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:59,319
Speaker 2: go first round. He's gonna play here. Spencer peachris listed

1117
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 2: as the starting court back for the Hawkeyves. They had

1118
00:55:01,080 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 2: some back and forth there at the end of the year.

1119
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 2: The Iowa secondary cornerback Mankins has been ruled out with

1120
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 2: an injury. It's a big loss. And back up Terry

1121
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:11,879
Speaker 2: Roberts also wasn't listed on the depth chart. Kentucky will

1122
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:14,800
Speaker 2: be with out wide receivers Josh Ali and Isaiah Epps,

1123
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:17,399
Speaker 2: who were involved in a car accident. I think Epps

1124
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 2: is also transferring. When I look at this game, look

1125
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 2: it's I think it's Kentucky or nothing here. I have

1126
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 2: them in a round robin. I look there. If you

1127
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 2: look at Kentucky's offense, it was spectacular. This year with

1128
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 2: their new coordinator Cohen and bringing in Levis. I mean

1129
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:38,800
Speaker 2: their top ten across the board and a lot of

1130
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:42,759
Speaker 2: advanced metrics. Iowa only o they had bottom ten and

1131
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:46,640
Speaker 2: almost every advanced metric on offense. This Kentucky team is

1132
00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:49,759
Speaker 2: very weak against past success like efficient passing. That's their

1133
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 2: weakness here. We talked about that a lot, and their

1134
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:53,840
Speaker 2: run defense wasn't as good as usual. They had some

1135
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 2: injuries on the defensive line. The call will be back

1136
00:55:56,160 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 2: here at least, not a team that has a lot

1137
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 2: of high pass success rate, not a team that's going

1138
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 2: to take advantage of Kentucky's secondary. So I think that,

1139
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:07,239
Speaker 2: by the way, these are two teams that want to

1140
00:56:07,280 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 2: run the ball, and they're very slow. They're both outside

1141
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 2: of the top one hundred and just the pace. Kentucky's

1142
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 2: actually slower than i with their hundred nineteenth in the

1143
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:15,759
Speaker 2: adjusted pace. When I look at this game, look, i

1144
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:19,839
Speaker 2: was defense is better than Kentucky's, but the gap isn't

1145
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:23,680
Speaker 2: that big. Kentucky is still top forty defense. The biggest

1146
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 2: gap in this game is Kentucky's offense versus Iowa's offense.

1147
00:56:27,680 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 2: The Iowa offense is just dreadful, and this Iowa team

1148
00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 2: is just not as good as we're used to seeing

1149
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:37,760
Speaker 2: in the trenches. Right outside of Linderbaum, their offensive line

1150
00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:40,719
Speaker 2: has been really poor, and their defensive line, which lost

1151
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:42,720
Speaker 2: a lot inside to use a lot of red shirt freshmen,

1152
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:45,760
Speaker 2: not the same. Kentucky should own the line of scrimmage

1153
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 2: here with their excellent offensive line, they should be able

1154
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:51,760
Speaker 2: to run the ball. Levis can hit some passes. Boston

1155
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 2: Hankins is pretty big. Kentucky's just going to be able

1156
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:58,680
Speaker 2: to score more, and that's what I think it comes

1157
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:01,919
Speaker 2: down to. The one thing that concerns me is, as

1158
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 2: with every Iowa game, is turnovers. Iowa third best turnover

1159
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:10,440
Speaker 2: margin in the country at plus thirteen, Kentucky third worst

1160
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:13,320
Speaker 2: at minus thirteen. So you want to talk about a

1161
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 2: complete difference, that's what Iowa thrives on turnovers. Short feels.

1162
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 2: Kentucky lost twenty two and had only nine takeaways. Iowa

1163
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 2: lost only sixteen and had twenty nine takeaways and twenty

1164
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 2: more twenty more takeaways. So that is the one thing

1165
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 2: that concerns me here. But I think that the handicap,

1166
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 2: you know, both teams I think will care here. Both

1167
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:41,480
Speaker 2: well coach. Can Kentucky avoid the turnovers if they do?

1168
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:44,800
Speaker 2: I think that it's a pretty simple handicap is Iowa

1169
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:46,440
Speaker 2: can't take advantage of some of the issues in the

1170
00:57:46,520 --> 00:57:49,520
Speaker 2: Kentucky secondary, and the Kentucky offense is just so much

1171
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 2: better than the Iowa offense, and they should dominate the

1172
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage here against a down Iowa defensive front

1173
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 2: and a secondary that's missing Hankins. What do you see here?

1174
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:04,919
Speaker 1: Well, one of the biggest offseason projects we had last

1175
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 1: year was that finishing drives equates against the spread wins.

1176
00:58:08,320 --> 00:58:10,080
Speaker 1: And this is one of those games where there is

1177
00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:13,600
Speaker 1: a clear leader and against in finishing drives, and that's Kentucky.

1178
00:58:14,040 --> 00:58:18,640
Speaker 1: Kentucky fourth on offense and finishing drives. That's scoring opportunities

1179
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 1: when your offense gets past the forty yard line. Iowa

1180
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 1: defense eighty second and defensive finishing drives. They're allowing teams

1181
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 1: to score touchdowns below national average. And then you go

1182
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:32,200
Speaker 1: to the other side of the ball. Iowa's bottom ten

1183
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 1: in the nation offensive finishing drives, even if they're able

1184
00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 1: to get a sustainable drive or hit us explosive play

1185
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:39,080
Speaker 1: if they get within the forty yard line, they're one

1186
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 1: of the worst teams in the nation getting points up

1187
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:44,160
Speaker 1: on the board. Kentucky's defense nothing special, but forty eighth

1188
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 1: in defensive finishing drives is good enough to stop Iowa

1189
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 1: from getting points up on the board. Well, these teams

1190
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 1: extremely slow outside the top one hundred pace, and you

1191
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 1: mentioned it. There's nothing in Iowa's offense whatsoever. There's no

1192
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:57,000
Speaker 1: advanced match where I can tell you how they're going

1193
00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:59,320
Speaker 1: to score point. I really don't even know actually how

1194
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:01,440
Speaker 1: they're going to score point. And I'm sure them being

1195
00:59:01,520 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 1: fourth in SPPLUS Special Teams is going to have something

1196
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:05,560
Speaker 1: to do with them getting points up on the board.

1197
00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 1: But from a covering perspective, you know, when you have

1198
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 1: two teams that run at this pace that are you know,

1199
00:59:13,240 --> 00:59:15,880
Speaker 1: and Kentucky's you know, one of the highest ranked teams

1200
00:59:15,880 --> 00:59:19,479
Speaker 1: in HAVOC allowed, they don't make mistakes. So I side

1201
00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 1: with you on Kentucky is you know. But the bigger

1202
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 1: that point spere it gets, the harder it's going to

1203
00:59:24,120 --> 00:59:26,040
Speaker 1: be to cover. I think the best bet in this game.

1204
00:59:26,080 --> 00:59:28,560
Speaker 1: Because the game is being played at one pm Eastern time,

1205
00:59:28,600 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 1: it's an early game in the day. The first half

1206
00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:32,920
Speaker 1: under is the player. I still don't know how I

1207
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 1: was going to score. Kentucky generally a slow starter, but

1208
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:38,360
Speaker 1: they will get points up on the board. One book

1209
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:40,080
Speaker 1: out there, one big book out there right now is

1210
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:42,200
Speaker 1: offering under twenty three. It's twenty one and a half

1211
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 1: across the market. One book out there is hanging a

1212
00:59:44,560 --> 00:59:46,600
Speaker 1: twenty three on the first half under. I think forty

1213
00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 1: five was key. It's exactly where I projected. That take

1214
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:52,520
Speaker 1: has taken massive under money. It's down to forty four.

1215
00:59:52,920 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 1: One of the sharpest books out in Las Vegas as

1216
00:59:54,760 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 1: we record this, took it down to forty three and

1217
00:59:56,880 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 1: a half. This twenty three first half under is what

1218
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:00,919
Speaker 1: I'm going to take. I don't see how these teams

1219
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 1: score points, especially Iowa. Kentucky will score their points, but

1220
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 1: they're not gonna blow them out. And I think that

1221
01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:10,280
Speaker 1: there's a mutual admiration between these two coaches where I

1222
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 1: see knees and not, you know, things being run up,

1223
01:00:13,120 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 1: no sunny comby running around with a pump jack chain

1224
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:18,880
Speaker 1: and things like that. So I'm going to take a

1225
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 1: first half under here. I lean with you on Kentucky

1226
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:23,040
Speaker 1: probably end up making it a play because you know,

1227
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 1: like I said, finishing drives means everything when covering spread.

1228
01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:31,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the Fiesta Bowl one

1229
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 2: pm Eastern on ESPN on Saturday. That's between number nine

1230
01:00:35,560 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State and number five Notre Dame. Notre Dame two

1231
01:00:37,720 --> 01:00:39,560
Speaker 2: two and a half point favorite here over under forty

1232
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:42,400
Speaker 2: five and a half. This game we played at State

1233
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:46,240
Speaker 2: Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Notes here. With Brian Kelly

1234
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:49,800
Speaker 2: leaving for Baton Rouge, Marcus Freeman, new head coach, will

1235
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 2: obviously take over the rains here for Notre Dame star

1236
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:58,160
Speaker 2: safety Kyle Hamilton, he won't play. Additionally, their star running

1237
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 2: back Hien Williams will also skip the Fiesta all to

1238
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 2: prepare for the NFL Draft. Oklahoma State's defensive codator Jim Knowles,

1239
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 2: who left for the same position at Ohio State, will

1240
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 2: coach the defense for this ball. That's really important here

1241
01:01:10,800 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 2: when I look at this game, Look, I love Oklahoma

1242
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:18,120
Speaker 2: State man and Spencer Sanders scares me. But I dug

1243
01:01:18,200 --> 01:01:20,800
Speaker 2: in the Notre Dame and I think that they're a

1244
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:24,280
Speaker 2: bit of paper tiger without kir Willins Kyra Willmins that

1245
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:26,919
Speaker 2: was huge towards the end of the year. He really

1246
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:30,160
Speaker 2: came on the offensive line had some changes, but you know,

1247
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:32,800
Speaker 2: obviously not having Kyle Hamilton out there will hurt the

1248
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 2: Notre Dame bottom twenty in defensive line havoc and sacks allowed.

1249
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:40,360
Speaker 2: That's big against Oklahoma State top five in both, so

1250
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:42,040
Speaker 2: I think that there's going to be some havoc here

1251
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:47,000
Speaker 2: against Kane. Notre Dame also ran really well in the

1252
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:49,880
Speaker 2: red zone and in finishing dry I don't think that

1253
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:52,080
Speaker 2: that they can't really run the ball without Williams. I

1254
01:01:52,120 --> 01:01:54,440
Speaker 2: don't think that that could persist against Oklahoma State defense

1255
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:56,920
Speaker 2: that's excellent when it comes to finishing drives, and I

1256
01:01:56,960 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 2: think Oklahoma State has some positive aggression in that aspect

1257
01:01:59,440 --> 01:02:01,040
Speaker 2: as they're off. Did get a little better as the

1258
01:02:01,120 --> 01:02:04,640
Speaker 2: year went on. But look, Notre Dame scheduled. You have

1259
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 2: to you can't just look at the strength of schedule

1260
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:08,960
Speaker 2: who they but you have to really dive deeper here,

1261
01:02:09,800 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 2: and they benefited from a lucky schedule. Look, they were

1262
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 2: eleven to one on the season three possession games. They

1263
01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 2: trailed or led by four less than the fourth quarter

1264
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:22,439
Speaker 2: in seven of their twelve games. So they went six

1265
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:26,400
Speaker 2: and one against bowl teams. So those are the ones

1266
01:02:26,400 --> 01:02:28,880
Speaker 2: that really matter. Let's look at those games. They played

1267
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:33,640
Speaker 2: Wisconsin without Braylan Allen, completely different wisconsinin who couldn't run

1268
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:35,880
Speaker 2: the ball at all. Then they trailed going into the

1269
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:39,240
Speaker 2: fourth quarter in that game, and then Mertz vomited on himself.

1270
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:44,280
Speaker 2: They played Toledo without daikwon Finn. Toledo much better with Finn.

1271
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:48,560
Speaker 2: Toledo led in South Bend going into the fourth. Notre

1272
01:02:48,640 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 2: Dame won by three. Okay, they beat Perdue at home

1273
01:02:51,400 --> 01:02:53,320
Speaker 2: by four. Team it's a four point game in the fourth.

1274
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:57,240
Speaker 2: They lost the Cinci at home. They beat Vatec by three,

1275
01:02:58,120 --> 01:03:01,160
Speaker 2: trailed going into the fourth. They beat UNC by ten.

1276
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:02,960
Speaker 2: They gave up six hundred yards and were out gaining

1277
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:05,880
Speaker 2: in that game. Four point game in the fourth. Then

1278
01:03:05,920 --> 01:03:08,400
Speaker 2: they played Virginia without Brendan Armstrong. Who cares, that's not

1279
01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:11,520
Speaker 2: a Bowl caliber team. I mean without Brendan Armstrong, it's

1280
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:15,800
Speaker 2: it's the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes. Brendan Armstrong is their

1281
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:18,600
Speaker 2: entire team. They even faced Georgia Tech, a non bowl

1282
01:03:18,640 --> 01:03:21,560
Speaker 2: team without kids. They got completely different teams, Like every

1283
01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 2: single possible team that you know that they could have

1284
01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 2: played that was a little shorthanded. You know by the

1285
01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:28,920
Speaker 2: way they went to They went to overtime with Florida

1286
01:03:28,960 --> 01:03:30,480
Speaker 2: State to start the year, another non Boll team. They

1287
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 2: went by that game by three, so you know, one

1288
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:36,120
Speaker 2: of their last six opponents they started blowing out. These

1289
01:03:36,120 --> 01:03:38,760
Speaker 2: teams were Bowl caliber, because you Uba with Brendan arm

1290
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:41,720
Speaker 2: Without Brenon Armstrong is not a Bowl caliber team. And

1291
01:03:41,800 --> 01:03:44,200
Speaker 2: the only that that team was UNC, who outgained them.

1292
01:03:44,560 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 2: So I think this UNC team, this Notre Dame team

1293
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:51,640
Speaker 2: is a bit overrated and overinflated in the market because

1294
01:03:51,640 --> 01:03:52,800
Speaker 2: of some of these results at the end of the

1295
01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:56,160
Speaker 2: year against non Bowl teams or completely crippled Bowl teams,

1296
01:03:56,600 --> 01:03:58,720
Speaker 2: and now you lose Karen Williams, just a huge piece

1297
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:01,479
Speaker 2: of that team. I think go Glahoma States. Defensive line

1298
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:04,440
Speaker 2: is going to have a huge day here, and I

1299
01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 2: think that they can do enough on offense to get

1300
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:09,960
Speaker 2: this done. I'm just waiting on the three. Give me.

1301
01:04:10,200 --> 01:04:12,160
Speaker 2: It looks like every ticket in the world's a Notre Dame.

1302
01:04:13,120 --> 01:04:16,280
Speaker 2: Just get this to three. Someone fucking put a three

1303
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:18,880
Speaker 2: out there for me staring at this line for weeks.

1304
01:04:20,200 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 1: Pokes, Yeah, I'm one to percent with you. I'll only

1305
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 1: add a couple of things here. I mean whether Jim

1306
01:04:25,200 --> 01:04:27,440
Speaker 1: Knowles is there or not, I mean the whole defensive staff.

1307
01:04:27,560 --> 01:04:30,880
Speaker 1: Nothing's changed here. Joe Bob Clements, the defensive line coach,

1308
01:04:31,480 --> 01:04:33,760
Speaker 1: took the podium yesterday and he said, the game plan,

1309
01:04:34,440 --> 01:04:36,920
Speaker 1: you know right now is a collective effort, and we

1310
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:38,840
Speaker 1: all know that one one thing that we have to

1311
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:41,160
Speaker 1: do is stop tied in Michael Mayer. So it doesn't

1312
01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:44,959
Speaker 1: matter who's playing quarterback, they will be all over Mayor

1313
01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:49,280
Speaker 1: like crazy. So this is just to me a not

1314
01:04:49,360 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 1: good situation for Notre Dame. You mentioned about, I mean,

1315
01:04:52,080 --> 01:04:55,120
Speaker 1: I lost the season win total under nine on some

1316
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:57,760
Speaker 1: just you know, some ridiculousness this here that Notre Dame

1317
01:04:57,880 --> 01:05:00,520
Speaker 1: was able to you know, do especially people.

1318
01:05:00,600 --> 01:05:02,600
Speaker 2: Look, I don't blame Notre Dame. People were lowing this

1319
01:05:02,640 --> 01:05:05,680
Speaker 2: team coming into the year. They overperformed. They won a

1320
01:05:05,720 --> 01:05:07,080
Speaker 2: lot of close games. They got a lot of breaks

1321
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:09,360
Speaker 2: with who was playing like I love the higher Marcus stream,

1322
01:05:09,440 --> 01:05:10,800
Speaker 2: but they got a lot of breaks on you know,

1323
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:13,320
Speaker 2: playing Virginia with that Armstrong, playing Wisconsin with that out

1324
01:05:13,600 --> 01:05:17,040
Speaker 2: winning all these close games late. But people are for

1325
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 2: you know, then they win. They went six to seven

1326
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:21,280
Speaker 2: to close the air against mainly non bowl teams, and

1327
01:05:21,320 --> 01:05:24,080
Speaker 2: then everyone has forgotten this is sort of a rebuilding

1328
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 2: year for Notre Dame. You got to give credit to

1329
01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 2: the program for their year, but I think that the

1330
01:05:30,200 --> 01:05:33,640
Speaker 2: the impression of this Notre Dame team is completely overinflated.

1331
01:05:34,280 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 2: And then this is still an Oklahoma State team that

1332
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 2: I have as the second right defense of the country.

1333
01:05:38,080 --> 01:05:40,160
Speaker 1: Well, I think another thing to take in consideration. We're

1334
01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:43,600
Speaker 1: not a trend's podcast, but Mike Gundy is ten to

1335
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:45,600
Speaker 1: five against the spread in bowl games, and I believe

1336
01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:47,680
Speaker 1: after double check me on this, but I believe he's

1337
01:05:47,720 --> 01:05:51,320
Speaker 1: won five. He's covered the spread five straight in bowl games,

1338
01:05:51,400 --> 01:05:54,040
Speaker 1: so he is progressed as he's been in this role

1339
01:05:54,160 --> 01:05:56,320
Speaker 1: for the Cowboys for a long time when it comes

1340
01:05:56,360 --> 01:05:59,680
Speaker 1: to bull preparation and then you know the offensive side.

1341
01:05:59,720 --> 01:06:01,720
Speaker 1: I was little hesitant with Oklahoma State when this number

1342
01:06:01,720 --> 01:06:03,880
Speaker 1: first came out because of what we saw was Spencer

1343
01:06:03,960 --> 01:06:06,760
Speaker 1: Sanders and the multiple defense. But like I said before,

1344
01:06:06,880 --> 01:06:10,320
Speaker 1: Baylor Dave Randa, every time he's spent seen Spencer Sanders,

1345
01:06:10,360 --> 01:06:12,240
Speaker 1: he's given them a ton of trouble. But Spencer Sanders

1346
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:15,040
Speaker 1: has been fine without that. Marcus Rieman's going to continue

1347
01:06:15,080 --> 01:06:16,400
Speaker 1: to go with four to three and a four to two.

1348
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:19,680
Speaker 1: Five we get a clean sheet from Spencer Sanders here,

1349
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:22,800
Speaker 1: then absolutely, then they're they're gonna win this game outright.

1350
01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:24,880
Speaker 1: So I'm with you. I'm waiting for the Oklahoma State

1351
01:06:24,920 --> 01:06:27,000
Speaker 1: plus three. If we don't get it, I'd rather play

1352
01:06:27,040 --> 01:06:28,040
Speaker 1: moneyline than the two and a half.

1353
01:06:28,800 --> 01:06:32,360
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the Rose Bowl five

1354
01:06:32,440 --> 01:06:35,440
Speaker 2: pm Eastern on ESPN between number eleven Utah number six

1355
01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:38,160
Speaker 2: Ohio State. The Buckeyes are a four point favorite here

1356
01:06:38,240 --> 01:06:41,440
Speaker 2: over under sixty four. This give will of course, he

1357
01:06:41,480 --> 01:06:43,880
Speaker 2: played at the Rose Bowl in pasady Ina, California. A

1358
01:06:43,960 --> 01:06:46,400
Speaker 2: lot of notes on the Ohio State side. Chris Olave,

1359
01:06:46,600 --> 01:06:49,560
Speaker 2: Garrett Wilson, two likely first round draft picks. Have receiver

1360
01:06:49,800 --> 01:06:55,080
Speaker 2: they're out there, Petite Ferrer, they're starting left tackle. He's out.

1361
01:06:55,680 --> 01:06:59,920
Speaker 2: Haskell Garrett their highest rated defender, and they're into your

1362
01:07:00,000 --> 01:07:04,960
Speaker 2: defensive lineman. He's out recent practice reports, Antoine Jackson their

1363
01:07:05,040 --> 01:07:08,440
Speaker 2: defensive tackle. These are all contributors not seen their starting linebacker,

1364
01:07:08,520 --> 01:07:11,360
Speaker 2: Cody signed and not seeing cornerback to seven Banks, not

1365
01:07:11,520 --> 01:07:15,720
Speaker 2: seeing their starting slot, Marcus Williamson, not seeing a couple

1366
01:07:15,800 --> 01:07:19,840
Speaker 2: other depth guys we're not seeing eighteen scholarship players in

1367
01:07:19,960 --> 01:07:23,360
Speaker 2: all were missing from practice. So you know, when I

1368
01:07:23,400 --> 01:07:24,760
Speaker 2: look at this game, I don't know if look, oh

1369
01:07:25,080 --> 01:07:26,480
Speaker 2: it's beat up. They have a lot of opt outs,

1370
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:28,200
Speaker 2: huge opt outs on the offensive side of the ball.

1371
01:07:28,760 --> 01:07:30,920
Speaker 2: I also don't know if they care. This is a

1372
01:07:31,000 --> 01:07:34,480
Speaker 2: team that had dreams gone to the comfortable playoff and

1373
01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:37,240
Speaker 2: this is a disappointment for them. And now you're seeing

1374
01:07:37,280 --> 01:07:39,760
Speaker 2: that with all these opt outs. Because you know who's

1375
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:42,720
Speaker 2: excited the beer Utah their first ever Rose Bowl. You

1376
01:07:42,800 --> 01:07:45,000
Speaker 2: know who has about six or seven guys who declared

1377
01:07:45,000 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 2: for the NFL draft. Utah. You know what every single

1378
01:07:48,600 --> 01:07:51,080
Speaker 2: one of them those players is doing playing in this

1379
01:07:51,160 --> 01:07:53,919
Speaker 2: bowl game. So that shows you the difference. The Ohio

1380
01:07:53,960 --> 01:07:56,840
Speaker 2: State guys are not playing in the bowl that are

1381
01:07:56,840 --> 01:08:00,640
Speaker 2: going to the NFL. The Utah guys. You know who

1382
01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:04,840
Speaker 2: we have Covid Pledger soool to full. I mean I

1383
01:08:04,880 --> 01:08:06,920
Speaker 2: can go on and on. They're all declared. They're all playing,

1384
01:08:07,760 --> 01:08:09,640
Speaker 2: uh fothering him. I mean there's there's a lot of them.

1385
01:08:09,680 --> 01:08:11,600
Speaker 2: They all said they're gonna play. And then from a

1386
01:08:11,680 --> 01:08:15,160
Speaker 2: matchup and also look, I think Utah motivation, Utah cares

1387
01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:19,320
Speaker 2: Utah full strength, Ohio State not you know who else

1388
01:08:19,400 --> 01:08:22,120
Speaker 2: cares Utah fans first hour of rose ball you know

1389
01:08:22,320 --> 01:08:25,840
Speaker 2: also doesn't care Ohio State fans. You know where this

1390
01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:28,280
Speaker 2: game is a lot closer to Utah. Do you see

1391
01:08:28,320 --> 01:08:30,760
Speaker 2: that PAC twelve title. This is probably gonna be like

1392
01:08:30,800 --> 01:08:33,400
Speaker 2: a Utah home game, so keep that in mind as well.

1393
01:08:33,400 --> 01:08:35,760
Speaker 2: And then from a matchup perspective, Ohio State's defense, what

1394
01:08:35,880 --> 01:08:39,000
Speaker 2: did they allowed a lot of explosive runs and then

1395
01:08:39,000 --> 01:08:43,000
Speaker 2: they allowed for teams to efficiently pass against them? Well,

1396
01:08:43,040 --> 01:08:46,320
Speaker 2: what is That's what Utah does? Explosive runs and efficiently pass.

1397
01:08:47,280 --> 01:08:49,920
Speaker 2: Utah was ranked eighth and explosive run percentage twenty third

1398
01:08:49,960 --> 01:08:52,720
Speaker 2: and passing down success rate Ohio State eighty third and

1399
01:08:52,760 --> 01:08:56,000
Speaker 2: one hundred and first in those two categories. Utah secondary

1400
01:08:56,040 --> 01:08:59,280
Speaker 2: top ten every advanced metric. And now we don't have

1401
01:08:59,360 --> 01:09:01,320
Speaker 2: to face Wilson in a lot of I know. Look, well,

1402
01:09:01,320 --> 01:09:02,880
Speaker 2: I to say it's five star kids over the place,

1403
01:09:02,920 --> 01:09:06,080
Speaker 2: but it's hard to replace and obviously don't have a

1404
01:09:06,120 --> 01:09:08,320
Speaker 2: lot of experience. It's worth though in Utah as a

1405
01:09:08,640 --> 01:09:10,840
Speaker 2: snuper snail. High State wants to go fast, But I

1406
01:09:10,920 --> 01:09:14,920
Speaker 2: think this is all Utah four above, fine with me.

1407
01:09:15,280 --> 01:09:19,519
Speaker 2: Money line, fine with me. I think you win this game?

1408
01:09:20,520 --> 01:09:20,720
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1409
01:09:20,840 --> 01:09:21,040
Speaker 2: To me.

1410
01:09:21,240 --> 01:09:24,400
Speaker 1: This is a Utah money line wager that I probably

1411
01:09:24,439 --> 01:09:26,800
Speaker 1: should have put in before all the announcements of the

1412
01:09:26,840 --> 01:09:28,320
Speaker 1: players that we knew that were going to set out

1413
01:09:28,360 --> 01:09:30,360
Speaker 1: on this game. So I don't think it's too late.

1414
01:09:30,360 --> 01:09:31,560
Speaker 1: When you're listening to this, go ahead and put in

1415
01:09:31,600 --> 01:09:36,200
Speaker 1: a Utah money line wager. Cam Rising has been on fire.

1416
01:09:36,800 --> 01:09:39,679
Speaker 1: Anybody that's in his path he has obliterated this season,

1417
01:09:40,680 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 1: and there should be no difference here. This was an

1418
01:09:42,439 --> 01:09:44,840
Speaker 1: Ohio State team that was already outside the top fifty

1419
01:09:44,880 --> 01:09:47,960
Speaker 1: in defensive rushing success rate. Utah is going to be

1420
01:09:48,000 --> 01:09:51,040
Speaker 1: able to run on them all day. You look at

1421
01:09:51,080 --> 01:09:53,240
Speaker 1: some of the other things finishing drives, Utah has the

1422
01:09:53,280 --> 01:09:56,240
Speaker 1: advantage on offense. Ohio State's number one in the nation

1423
01:09:56,360 --> 01:09:59,839
Speaker 1: offensive finishing drives. I think CJ. Stroud and Trevon Henderson,

1424
01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:01,320
Speaker 1: the players that are left are going to be able

1425
01:10:01,360 --> 01:10:03,439
Speaker 1: to do a little bit of damage, but it's going

1426
01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:05,040
Speaker 1: to take a couple of quarters for them to get

1427
01:10:05,080 --> 01:10:07,840
Speaker 1: acclimated with the new players and the new positions. This

1428
01:10:08,000 --> 01:10:11,600
Speaker 1: is the first time out and there's no way I

1429
01:10:11,640 --> 01:10:14,240
Speaker 1: would back Ohio State early in this game, considering all

1430
01:10:14,280 --> 01:10:17,040
Speaker 1: the transitions that stuck you just mentioned. Now, can Ohio

1431
01:10:17,120 --> 01:10:19,920
Speaker 1: State come back in the third quarter. Maybe, I mean

1432
01:10:20,000 --> 01:10:22,040
Speaker 1: Ryan Day's one and two against the spread and bowl games.

1433
01:10:22,080 --> 01:10:25,000
Speaker 1: Maybe he can make the adjustments at halftime. Kyle Whittingham's

1434
01:10:25,000 --> 01:10:26,639
Speaker 1: pretty good at doing that too. He's eight and five

1435
01:10:26,680 --> 01:10:28,560
Speaker 1: against spread and bowl games. And this is, you know,

1436
01:10:28,600 --> 01:10:31,920
Speaker 1: one of the biggest games in Utah program in fifty years.

1437
01:10:32,000 --> 01:10:34,880
Speaker 1: So you know, this is a game where I want

1438
01:10:34,880 --> 01:10:39,280
Speaker 1: to lay Utah money line and if Ohio State is lifeless,

1439
01:10:39,760 --> 01:10:41,600
Speaker 1: then we're sitting around with a great ticket on a

1440
01:10:41,680 --> 01:10:43,840
Speaker 1: live line that'll have Utah favored. And if you in,

1441
01:10:43,840 --> 01:10:46,479
Speaker 1: if Ohio State figure something out at halftime, we should

1442
01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:47,720
Speaker 1: be able to get out of it. But to me,

1443
01:10:48,439 --> 01:10:50,960
Speaker 1: the plan of attack is to get behind Cam Rising

1444
01:10:51,040 --> 01:10:54,080
Speaker 1: in this offense is just obliterating everybody right now against

1445
01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:56,320
Speaker 1: an Ohio State team. And I've said this for years.

1446
01:10:56,680 --> 01:11:00,240
Speaker 1: That's Sugar Bowl where you take an SEC team and

1447
01:11:00,439 --> 01:11:02,400
Speaker 1: they didn't make the College Bowl playoff or they didn't

1448
01:11:02,400 --> 01:11:04,160
Speaker 1: make the National Championship game, and then you sub them

1449
01:11:04,200 --> 01:11:05,760
Speaker 1: into the Sugar Bowl and they get blown out Every

1450
01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:07,360
Speaker 1: year by the big twelve and the big dwelves are's

1451
01:11:07,360 --> 01:11:10,479
Speaker 1: pounting their chest. That's what this game is, right. We

1452
01:11:10,520 --> 01:11:12,040
Speaker 1: don't have that in the Sugar Bowl this year. That's

1453
01:11:12,080 --> 01:11:14,120
Speaker 1: what the Rose Bowl game means. Ohio State did not

1454
01:11:14,240 --> 01:11:16,960
Speaker 1: want to be here, which is crazy. That's crazy in

1455
01:11:17,040 --> 01:11:18,920
Speaker 1: our today's world that a team that doesn't want to

1456
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:21,120
Speaker 1: be in the Rose Bowl. But that's the way to

1457
01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:23,799
Speaker 1: play it. Take take. You saw a money line reassess

1458
01:11:23,840 --> 01:11:25,639
Speaker 1: at halftime. See if Ohio State is lifeless?

1459
01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:30,720
Speaker 2: I agree. All right, let's move on to the last bowl,

1460
01:11:30,800 --> 01:11:32,880
Speaker 2: the final ball on Saturday, and that's the Sugar Bowl

1461
01:11:32,920 --> 01:11:36,200
Speaker 2: between number seven Baylor and number nine. He's even. Number

1462
01:11:36,200 --> 01:11:37,800
Speaker 2: eight oh Miss Ole Miss is a one and a

1463
01:11:37,840 --> 01:11:40,120
Speaker 2: half point favorite here over under fifty five and a half.

1464
01:11:40,760 --> 01:11:43,160
Speaker 2: This game we played at eight forty five pm Eastern

1465
01:11:43,200 --> 01:11:46,880
Speaker 2: on ESPN at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

1466
01:11:47,479 --> 01:11:49,719
Speaker 2: The big news here is Matt Carrall will play projective

1467
01:11:49,720 --> 01:11:52,080
Speaker 2: first round draft pick. He's just the type of guy

1468
01:11:52,120 --> 01:11:53,240
Speaker 2: that he is. He came out and he said he's

1469
01:11:53,280 --> 01:11:56,280
Speaker 2: going to play. Offensive coordinator. Jeff Levi's expected to take

1470
01:11:56,280 --> 01:11:59,240
Speaker 2: the same position at Oklahoma. Under new head coach Bred

1471
01:11:59,280 --> 01:12:03,120
Speaker 2: vettibules them. With Baylor, it's all about who's going to

1472
01:12:03,479 --> 01:12:09,120
Speaker 2: play at quarterback shaping Billhannon, and he believes Dave rand,

1473
01:12:09,160 --> 01:12:11,200
Speaker 2: a head coach, believes that the latter will be healthy

1474
01:12:11,360 --> 01:12:13,920
Speaker 2: by New Year's Day. The Old Miss defense was a

1475
01:12:13,960 --> 01:12:17,439
Speaker 2: lot better than I thought this year. They some of

1476
01:12:17,479 --> 01:12:19,160
Speaker 2: their events. Mets was like, wow, this is where Old

1477
01:12:19,200 --> 01:12:21,960
Speaker 2: Miss was now poverty run dye, but they were. They

1478
01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:24,640
Speaker 2: have some really strong numbers against pass. They cannot de

1479
01:12:24,680 --> 01:12:27,439
Speaker 2: vnd the run, which is really troublesome against Baylor here,

1480
01:12:27,479 --> 01:12:30,200
Speaker 2: but ben don't break defense. They can get some pressure.

1481
01:12:30,520 --> 01:12:34,080
Speaker 2: They're decent against the pass this year. You can hit

1482
01:12:34,160 --> 01:12:37,599
Speaker 2: some explosives against Baylor, which is I'm assuming Ole Miss

1483
01:12:37,680 --> 01:12:40,280
Speaker 2: wants to do. And the biggest thing that I noted

1484
01:12:40,320 --> 01:12:42,320
Speaker 2: here is Baylor is a super snail and almost wants

1485
01:12:42,320 --> 01:12:44,479
Speaker 2: to go super fast. Like this is the tempo, biggest

1486
01:12:44,520 --> 01:12:49,200
Speaker 2: tempo contrast of any bowls ole Miss. Those just tested

1487
01:12:49,320 --> 01:12:52,000
Speaker 2: like their top ten strength to schedule, Baylor average national

1488
01:12:52,240 --> 01:12:56,840
Speaker 2: strength of schedule, and uh like Baylor's low their broad

1489
01:12:56,880 --> 01:13:06,320
Speaker 2: wins this year, Texas State can Kansas State and that's it.

1490
01:13:07,040 --> 01:13:08,960
Speaker 2: And then you know then they got spencer standers gifting

1491
01:13:09,040 --> 01:13:10,240
Speaker 2: them a game, and then they get to stop at

1492
01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:12,160
Speaker 2: the gol on on a neutral field. It's like, I

1493
01:13:12,240 --> 01:13:14,760
Speaker 2: just haven't been impressed with what they've done away from home.

1494
01:13:16,240 --> 01:13:17,760
Speaker 2: I don't have a strong feel in here. I'm leaning

1495
01:13:17,800 --> 01:13:20,639
Speaker 2: ole miss. This line is just telling me the Baylor's

1496
01:13:20,680 --> 01:13:23,720
Speaker 2: gonna win, though, just I'm getting that odd feeling. But

1497
01:13:23,880 --> 01:13:25,760
Speaker 2: I don't have a strong feel in this game yet.

1498
01:13:28,280 --> 01:13:30,800
Speaker 2: I assume Lane's going to have a pretty damn good

1499
01:13:30,800 --> 01:13:33,800
Speaker 2: game plan though, with you know, bowl, with a lot

1500
01:13:33,840 --> 01:13:36,160
Speaker 2: of time to repair, you should see a few tricks

1501
01:13:36,240 --> 01:13:37,680
Speaker 2: up his sleeve. What do you see here?

1502
01:13:38,200 --> 01:13:41,280
Speaker 1: I didn't understand the opening total whatsoever. The opening total

1503
01:13:41,360 --> 01:13:42,040
Speaker 1: was fifty.

1504
01:13:41,760 --> 01:13:42,120
Speaker 2: And a half.

1505
01:13:42,160 --> 01:13:44,920
Speaker 1: I thought that was a huge mistake. It's a number.

1506
01:13:45,000 --> 01:13:47,040
Speaker 1: I make it fifty eight and a half. We've seen

1507
01:13:47,080 --> 01:13:49,960
Speaker 1: it rise as we record right now, it looks like

1508
01:13:50,000 --> 01:13:52,439
Speaker 1: we've eclipsed the key of fifty five or up to

1509
01:13:52,520 --> 01:13:54,360
Speaker 1: fifty five and a half, I would still take the over.

1510
01:13:54,479 --> 01:13:55,600
Speaker 1: I make it fifty eight and a half, so I

1511
01:13:55,760 --> 01:13:58,439
Speaker 1: play it up to fifty nine. These two guys know

1512
01:13:58,560 --> 01:14:01,840
Speaker 1: each other extremely well. Dave Brandon knows Lane Kiffin back

1513
01:14:01,880 --> 01:14:04,519
Speaker 1: to the Alabama days back to the Lashow days. Lane

1514
01:14:04,560 --> 01:14:07,000
Speaker 1: Kiffen knows, Dave Brandon knows how to scheme and game

1515
01:14:07,080 --> 01:14:10,800
Speaker 1: plan for this, not to mention Matt Corral's playing. Not

1516
01:14:10,920 --> 01:14:13,040
Speaker 1: to mention Old Miss will give up as many available

1517
01:14:13,120 --> 01:14:16,720
Speaker 1: yards as possible for the rushing success. Right defense one

1518
01:14:16,800 --> 01:14:18,800
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty fourth in the nation, bottom ten and

1519
01:14:18,880 --> 01:14:22,360
Speaker 1: line yards, they don't cause any havoc whatsoever. But what

1520
01:14:22,520 --> 01:14:26,120
Speaker 1: they have gone to is a two man defensive front

1521
01:14:26,200 --> 01:14:29,800
Speaker 1: and dropping literally nine players into coverage. So they're just

1522
01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:32,560
Speaker 1: daring Bohannan her shape and to run the field and

1523
01:14:32,720 --> 01:14:35,320
Speaker 1: get as many yards as they want. So I expect

1524
01:14:35,439 --> 01:14:38,240
Speaker 1: both of these teams. Ole Miss will be very well

1525
01:14:38,280 --> 01:14:40,920
Speaker 1: prepared for what rand is gonna throw. The multiple formations

1526
01:14:41,000 --> 01:14:43,519
Speaker 1: and schemes and the blitzes. I think Matt craw will

1527
01:14:43,560 --> 01:14:46,120
Speaker 1: be just fine. They're gonna go up tempo to keep

1528
01:14:46,160 --> 01:14:49,720
Speaker 1: some of that, you know, to keep that communication going

1529
01:14:49,760 --> 01:14:51,439
Speaker 1: on with the defense and what they're gonna do. They're gonna,

1530
01:14:51,439 --> 01:14:52,880
Speaker 1: you know, Ole Miss is probably gonna go as fast

1531
01:14:52,920 --> 01:14:55,000
Speaker 1: as possible, number two in the nation in place per minute.

1532
01:14:55,439 --> 01:14:57,040
Speaker 1: I expect them to live up to that to try

1533
01:14:57,080 --> 01:15:00,320
Speaker 1: to avoid some of the Baylor blitzet stunt that they're

1534
01:15:00,360 --> 01:15:03,639
Speaker 1: going to throw. But overall, this game is about prep

1535
01:15:03,680 --> 01:15:05,120
Speaker 1: and both these teams are going to be very well

1536
01:15:05,160 --> 01:15:07,600
Speaker 1: prep for what the other one wants to do and

1537
01:15:07,640 --> 01:15:10,040
Speaker 1: almost doesn't play any defense, and both these teams are

1538
01:15:10,080 --> 01:15:12,600
Speaker 1: really good at getting points on the board. So you know,

1539
01:15:12,680 --> 01:15:14,639
Speaker 1: for me, I'm taking the over here still on this game,

1540
01:15:14,720 --> 01:15:16,519
Speaker 1: took it early, got it on the app. I'd still

1541
01:15:16,560 --> 01:15:20,479
Speaker 1: play up to fifty nine as far as the winner goes.

1542
01:15:20,520 --> 01:15:22,120
Speaker 1: I think this is a live betting game all the way.

1543
01:15:22,240 --> 01:15:24,160
Speaker 1: I think this is a possibility. You could probably get

1544
01:15:24,200 --> 01:15:26,720
Speaker 1: seven on both sides, maybe six on both sides from

1545
01:15:26,760 --> 01:15:30,000
Speaker 1: a live betting standpoint. So you know, projection Ole miss

1546
01:15:30,080 --> 01:15:31,840
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. That's not enough to get

1547
01:15:31,920 --> 01:15:34,360
Speaker 1: me to buy into minus one. I'll be playing the

1548
01:15:34,400 --> 01:15:37,120
Speaker 1: side live. But I just love the over here. There's

1549
01:15:37,200 --> 01:15:41,639
Speaker 1: just so many things, from poor tackling grades, from poor

1550
01:15:41,720 --> 01:15:45,680
Speaker 1: grades against explosive plays. I just I see points here.

1551
01:15:47,600 --> 01:15:49,400
Speaker 2: Maybe I'll join you. All right, So we have one

1552
01:15:49,439 --> 01:15:51,919
Speaker 2: final Bowl game to get too, and that's on Tuesday,

1553
01:15:52,000 --> 01:15:55,240
Speaker 2: January fourth. That's the Texas Bowl between six and six

1554
01:15:55,400 --> 01:16:00,679
Speaker 2: LSU and seven and five Kansas State. That's an NRG stadium, Houston, Texas,

1555
01:16:00,800 --> 01:16:04,040
Speaker 2: nine PM Eastern or ESPN. These two teams last played

1556
01:16:04,040 --> 01:16:06,240
Speaker 2: a ball in twenty nineteen. Kansas State lost in the

1557
01:16:06,280 --> 01:16:11,519
Speaker 2: Liberty Bowl to Navy. LSU won it all well. Despite that,

1558
01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:14,000
Speaker 2: Kansas State is favored here by three and a half

1559
01:16:14,080 --> 01:16:18,320
Speaker 2: points over under forty eight. LSU four and six. First

1560
01:16:18,360 --> 01:16:21,599
Speaker 2: Bowl teams this year Kansas State three and four. Kansas

1561
01:16:21,640 --> 01:16:23,200
Speaker 2: State a lot of news in this game. Kansas State

1562
01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:26,160
Speaker 2: expects to get quarterback Skylar Thompson back. That's huge. He

1563
01:16:26,160 --> 01:16:28,760
Speaker 2: missed the five rega season value with an injury. Head

1564
01:16:28,800 --> 01:16:30,760
Speaker 2: coach Chris Haymon. He announced that the Wildcats will we

1565
01:16:30,760 --> 01:16:33,000
Speaker 2: want from offense quorded Or Courdy Messingham and Titans coach

1566
01:16:33,080 --> 01:16:36,360
Speaker 2: Jason Ray former Kids State quarterback Colin Klein Colin with

1567
01:16:36,439 --> 01:16:39,000
Speaker 2: two l's Colin, there's one will serve as the interim

1568
01:16:39,080 --> 01:16:44,960
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator and LSU just has tons of question marks

1569
01:16:44,960 --> 01:16:47,559
Speaker 2: all over. Max Johnson recently announced a whole lot other transfer.

1570
01:16:47,640 --> 01:16:49,639
Speaker 2: Porter Miles Brennan did the same, and then he's coming back,

1571
01:16:49,640 --> 01:16:52,640
Speaker 2: but he's out. So their quarterback is Garret Nutsmeyer, but

1572
01:16:52,640 --> 01:16:55,920
Speaker 2: he does want to burn his red shirt they requested

1573
01:16:55,960 --> 01:16:57,599
Speaker 2: a waiver. I don't think it's gonna get granted, which

1574
01:16:57,680 --> 01:17:00,120
Speaker 2: means they're gonna have a true freshman I'll walk on,

1575
01:17:00,360 --> 01:17:04,280
Speaker 2: or a converted wide receiver at quarterback. This is an

1576
01:17:04,360 --> 01:17:07,360
Speaker 2: offense that can't run the ball. It's an offense that's

1577
01:17:07,400 --> 01:17:10,479
Speaker 2: ranked one hundred and third and sack rate allowed against

1578
01:17:10,479 --> 01:17:12,960
Speaker 2: the Kansas State defense that can really get after the quarterback,

1579
01:17:13,120 --> 01:17:15,680
Speaker 2: and ls offensive will be missing three of its top

1580
01:17:15,760 --> 01:17:19,200
Speaker 2: seven receivers as a couple of them opped it out.

1581
01:17:19,240 --> 01:17:20,840
Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball, you know, you

1582
01:17:20,960 --> 01:17:23,719
Speaker 2: have obviously an interim staff with LSU, with Brian Kelly

1583
01:17:23,760 --> 01:17:26,200
Speaker 2: coming in at o's not coaching the ball. Offensive line

1584
01:17:26,240 --> 01:17:29,439
Speaker 2: coach Brad Davis will service the interim. Few assistants have

1585
01:17:29,520 --> 01:17:33,840
Speaker 2: also left. As I mentioned, right, hey, hey, right, yes on,

1586
01:17:34,439 --> 01:17:38,240
Speaker 2: but yes on your SIS blue shirt. You know, bout

1587
01:17:38,520 --> 01:17:40,920
Speaker 2: is out for LSU. Their top receiver, Trey Palmer, the

1588
01:17:40,960 --> 01:17:44,320
Speaker 2: other wide receiver, has entered the transfer Porteral and one

1589
01:17:44,320 --> 01:17:46,560
Speaker 2: of their other receivers as well. On the other on

1590
01:17:46,640 --> 01:17:49,320
Speaker 2: the defense side of the wall, their best linebacker, Damon

1591
01:17:49,439 --> 01:17:52,320
Speaker 2: Clark and their best defensive lineman by far Neil Farrell

1592
01:17:52,360 --> 01:17:54,760
Speaker 2: have both opted out. To prepare for the NFL. The

1593
01:17:54,800 --> 01:17:58,559
Speaker 2: obviously already lost ricks at corner. I was reading reports

1594
01:17:58,600 --> 01:18:01,400
Speaker 2: that there's only fifty five guys available, including like walk

1595
01:18:01,479 --> 01:18:04,320
Speaker 2: On instead of practiced recently for LSU, and I expect

1596
01:18:04,439 --> 01:18:06,880
Speaker 2: more opt outs. Don't know if they even care here.

1597
01:18:08,160 --> 01:18:09,920
Speaker 2: You know Alice's top look, I mean when I look

1598
01:18:09,920 --> 01:18:12,160
Speaker 2: at this, Elsie's top outside the top one hundred epa

1599
01:18:12,240 --> 01:18:15,479
Speaker 2: per rush. They can't run the ball. And Kansas State

1600
01:18:15,760 --> 01:18:19,680
Speaker 2: their defensive front fifteenth in line yard, sixteenth in opportunity rate.

1601
01:18:19,760 --> 01:18:23,000
Speaker 2: You can't run on Kansas State. What you can do

1602
01:18:23,400 --> 01:18:25,800
Speaker 2: is throw in Kansas State. But you don't you have

1603
01:18:25,960 --> 01:18:29,200
Speaker 2: I maybe wide receiver playing quarterback. You have you know,

1604
01:18:30,080 --> 01:18:32,080
Speaker 2: a lot of your receivers are gone. You have an

1605
01:18:32,120 --> 01:18:36,320
Speaker 2: offensive line that struggles in the past. Protection. There's not

1606
01:18:36,439 --> 01:18:39,800
Speaker 2: a good situation here. And then Kansas State. You know,

1607
01:18:40,000 --> 01:18:41,400
Speaker 2: I think that they're going to be able to move

1608
01:18:41,400 --> 01:18:42,960
Speaker 2: the ball on the ground here else you're missing a

1609
01:18:42,960 --> 01:18:46,200
Speaker 2: lot of guys on defense, really good rushing team. Getting

1610
01:18:46,240 --> 01:18:49,240
Speaker 2: Scytlar Thompson back will help as well. Kansas State should care,

1611
01:18:49,600 --> 01:18:52,360
Speaker 2: not sure LSU does. It's worth noting Booth these teams

1612
01:18:52,360 --> 01:18:55,080
Speaker 2: are very slow Kansas State's a super snail. They're like

1613
01:18:55,120 --> 01:18:59,320
Speaker 2: bottom ten and adjusted pace. Elsie's slightly below average. Kansas

1614
01:18:59,360 --> 01:19:01,599
Speaker 2: State's top twe and standard down rush right. They want

1615
01:19:01,600 --> 01:19:05,040
Speaker 2: to run first, play slow, else use outside the top

1616
01:19:05,120 --> 01:19:06,840
Speaker 2: one hundred and standardown rush right. But I expect that

1617
01:19:06,920 --> 01:19:08,840
Speaker 2: number to rise. I assume they're going to run it

1618
01:19:08,840 --> 01:19:12,200
Speaker 2: a lot here, so this might be an underlook. I

1619
01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:15,080
Speaker 2: love Kansas State. I got them plus one and a half.

1620
01:19:15,520 --> 01:19:17,280
Speaker 2: They're sitting at three and a half point favorites here.

1621
01:19:17,280 --> 01:19:19,880
Speaker 2: I'd take them up to four. What do you see here?

1622
01:19:20,400 --> 01:19:22,640
Speaker 1: That's a good number on Kansas State. And for me,

1623
01:19:22,840 --> 01:19:24,760
Speaker 1: it all comes down to Garrett Neusmier and what the

1624
01:19:24,840 --> 01:19:26,600
Speaker 1: NCAA is going to do with his waiver, and you

1625
01:19:26,680 --> 01:19:28,320
Speaker 1: want to think about it. I mean with Miles Brennan

1626
01:19:28,400 --> 01:19:33,200
Speaker 1: coming back, it's really an interesting dynamic because Coach O

1627
01:19:33,560 --> 01:19:34,320
Speaker 1: was so involved.

1628
01:19:34,360 --> 01:19:36,519
Speaker 2: You have this five star walker Howard coming back to

1629
01:19:37,439 --> 01:19:38,120
Speaker 2: Coach O was.

1630
01:19:38,240 --> 01:19:43,759
Speaker 1: So involved with nus Meyer's family about what the schedule

1631
01:19:43,920 --> 01:19:45,479
Speaker 1: was for him to play and whether he's going to

1632
01:19:45,560 --> 01:19:47,439
Speaker 1: and how he's going to play his four games, where

1633
01:19:47,479 --> 01:19:49,360
Speaker 1: he's going to play his four games because they didn't

1634
01:19:49,400 --> 01:19:51,160
Speaker 1: want to burn his red shirt whatsoever, no matter how

1635
01:19:51,200 --> 01:19:54,360
Speaker 1: many injuries to Max Johnson, Miles Brennan there was. You know,

1636
01:19:54,479 --> 01:19:57,200
Speaker 1: nus Meyer's family was heavily involved in what games he

1637
01:19:57,320 --> 01:19:58,760
Speaker 1: was going to play because they didn't want to burn

1638
01:19:58,800 --> 01:20:00,719
Speaker 1: the red shirt. Now all of a sudden, we're requiring

1639
01:20:00,760 --> 01:20:02,880
Speaker 1: the waiver. They don't get the waiver. Nusmeyer's not playing,

1640
01:20:03,320 --> 01:20:04,599
Speaker 1: and that means you're not gonna be able to take

1641
01:20:04,600 --> 01:20:07,320
Speaker 1: advantage of a Kansas State defense. It's ninety third and

1642
01:20:07,800 --> 01:20:10,120
Speaker 1: passing success rate. You're not gonna be able to take

1643
01:20:10,120 --> 01:20:12,800
Speaker 1: advantage of a defense it's outside the top one hundred

1644
01:20:12,800 --> 01:20:16,360
Speaker 1: and standard downs explosiveness. Nus Meyer's arm is just a cannon.

1645
01:20:17,000 --> 01:20:18,840
Speaker 1: He is going to be somebody to keep eyes on.

1646
01:20:18,920 --> 01:20:20,000
Speaker 1: And I don't know if he's coming back to the

1647
01:20:20,120 --> 01:20:22,679
Speaker 1: l Street program. So if he gets the waiver, obviously

1648
01:20:22,760 --> 01:20:24,360
Speaker 1: he wants to play before he goes into the portal

1649
01:20:24,400 --> 01:20:26,120
Speaker 1: to hopefully catch the eyes of a coach that'll start

1650
01:20:26,200 --> 01:20:29,720
Speaker 1: him right away. If he doesn't get the waiver, he's

1651
01:20:29,760 --> 01:20:32,640
Speaker 1: probably gone anyways. So I think the handicap and the

1652
01:20:32,680 --> 01:20:36,599
Speaker 1: total is completely dependent on the waiver for Garrett Nusmeyer.

1653
01:20:37,720 --> 01:20:39,719
Speaker 2: He gets it from what I've read yeah.

1654
01:20:39,520 --> 01:20:42,000
Speaker 1: And I've read an article article like fifteen minutes ago,

1655
01:20:42,080 --> 01:20:44,000
Speaker 1: like it's there's still no decision, and I don't think

1656
01:20:44,000 --> 01:20:46,360
Speaker 1: we're going to get a decision, and and it's it's

1657
01:20:46,400 --> 01:20:49,000
Speaker 1: crazy how the NCAAA sorts their mail. I'm not even

1658
01:20:49,040 --> 01:20:50,800
Speaker 1: sure how that process even works.

1659
01:20:50,840 --> 01:20:54,360
Speaker 2: So with Garrett Nutsmeyer for the Texas Bowls, probably not

1660
01:20:55,800 --> 01:20:56,719
Speaker 2: at the top of their list.

1661
01:20:57,120 --> 01:20:59,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, so what we're gonna do here is I think,

1662
01:20:59,640 --> 01:21:01,920
Speaker 1: you know, you have to what is the drop off

1663
01:21:02,040 --> 01:21:06,000
Speaker 1: from Max Johnson down to possibly a wide receiver running

1664
01:21:06,040 --> 01:21:09,080
Speaker 1: wildcat this entire game. This is a game I would

1665
01:21:09,080 --> 01:21:10,519
Speaker 1: have made a pick. So if you think three and

1666
01:21:10,520 --> 01:21:13,160
Speaker 1: a half points is what Max Johnson is worth, then

1667
01:21:13,400 --> 01:21:17,680
Speaker 1: the number is fair market value. I happen to think

1668
01:21:17,760 --> 01:21:20,800
Speaker 1: that LSU has absolutely nothing to play for, but some

1669
01:21:20,880 --> 01:21:24,320
Speaker 1: of the individual players have motives like nus Meyer does

1670
01:21:24,360 --> 01:21:25,720
Speaker 1: to probably get in the portal and get a bit,

1671
01:21:25,760 --> 01:21:28,280
Speaker 1: you know, a job somewhere else. So you know, for me,

1672
01:21:28,920 --> 01:21:32,000
Speaker 1: if nus Meyer plays, I'm not going to back Kansas State.

1673
01:21:34,000 --> 01:21:35,720
Speaker 1: And I think the total, which hasn't moved at all,

1674
01:21:35,880 --> 01:21:38,200
Speaker 1: is completely dependent also on him. If he doesn't play,

1675
01:21:38,240 --> 01:21:38,920
Speaker 1: it's a dead shot.

1676
01:21:39,000 --> 01:21:39,519
Speaker 2: Under one.

1677
01:21:40,560 --> 01:21:42,800
Speaker 1: If he does play, then there's more of a chance

1678
01:21:42,880 --> 01:21:45,000
Speaker 1: that you know the passing downfield. You can take advantage

1679
01:21:45,000 --> 01:21:47,320
Speaker 1: of Kansas State. You can take advantage of their very

1680
01:21:47,400 --> 01:21:50,720
Speaker 1: poor one hundred and fifteenth in tackling. Chris Cleman gets

1681
01:21:50,800 --> 01:21:53,639
Speaker 1: his teams ready for postseason play. In the postseason, including

1682
01:21:53,680 --> 01:21:55,519
Speaker 1: time he was at North Dakota State, He's eleven six

1683
01:21:55,600 --> 01:21:57,880
Speaker 1: and one against the spread in postseason play, so he

1684
01:21:57,920 --> 01:22:00,120
Speaker 1: knows how to get his teams prepared. I want as

1685
01:22:00,160 --> 01:22:01,479
Speaker 1: a state in the spot, but I won't do if

1686
01:22:01,600 --> 01:22:05,160
Speaker 1: Smyer's playing. If nes Meyer is playing, then I won't

1687
01:22:05,200 --> 01:22:06,799
Speaker 1: be taking an under and I won't be taking Kansastate.

1688
01:22:06,840 --> 01:22:09,640
Speaker 1: If he's not playing, I'm definitely taking an under forty eight.

1689
01:22:11,160 --> 01:22:14,120
Speaker 2: All right, there you have ten balls, including the College

1690
01:22:14,120 --> 01:22:17,120
Speaker 2: Wable Playoff broken down as in depth because you will

1691
01:22:17,160 --> 01:22:21,880
Speaker 2: find anywhere. We will have one more podcast. We have

1692
01:22:21,920 --> 01:22:23,559
Speaker 2: a couple of live shows. Make sure you check that out.

1693
01:22:24,800 --> 01:22:27,439
Speaker 2: We tweet them out. We will have one on Friday morning,

1694
01:22:28,120 --> 01:22:32,360
Speaker 2: and of course we will have a podcast next weekend

1695
01:22:33,040 --> 01:22:35,000
Speaker 2: before we're in Vegas. Colin I will both be there,

1696
01:22:35,240 --> 01:22:37,479
Speaker 2: so hit us up in the DMS. If you're around

1697
01:22:38,920 --> 01:22:41,360
Speaker 2: we'll have something. We'll have a live show probably today out,

1698
01:22:41,400 --> 01:22:43,200
Speaker 2: but we'll have a podcast to give out our awards

1699
01:22:43,240 --> 01:22:47,519
Speaker 2: and previous the national Championship. That'll come out either next

1700
01:22:47,600 --> 01:22:49,720
Speaker 2: Thursday or Friday. But before we get out of here,

1701
01:22:49,760 --> 01:22:50,599
Speaker 2: let's go three and out.

1702
01:22:53,160 --> 01:22:55,240
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1703
01:22:56,320 --> 01:22:59,160
Speaker 2: We'll do this quickly. We're all within just a sentence each.

1704
01:22:59,200 --> 01:23:02,560
Speaker 2: Since we covered all these games, let's start with favorite

1705
01:23:02,800 --> 01:23:08,040
Speaker 2: bet of the ten bowls that we covered. I'm gonna

1706
01:23:08,040 --> 01:23:10,479
Speaker 2: stick with my guys. I'm going to Cincinnati plus thirteen

1707
01:23:10,479 --> 01:23:12,080
Speaker 2: and a half waight for the fourteen to pop again.

1708
01:23:13,240 --> 01:23:15,840
Speaker 2: I think this Alabama te's been jeckaling Hyde all year long.

1709
01:23:15,880 --> 01:23:19,240
Speaker 2: I make this line under ten. I you know, the

1710
01:23:19,400 --> 01:23:22,040
Speaker 2: loss of Mechi is not being talked about enough, and

1711
01:23:22,120 --> 01:23:24,680
Speaker 2: this is the best secondary in the nation. I think

1712
01:23:24,760 --> 01:23:27,040
Speaker 2: Alabama will come out. I have a game plan to

1713
01:23:27,120 --> 01:23:29,560
Speaker 2: run it a lot, but Cincinnati's run d well. You know,

1714
01:23:30,080 --> 01:23:32,840
Speaker 2: Bama should get a push here. Has been very respectable

1715
01:23:32,920 --> 01:23:36,000
Speaker 2: all year, and I think that Desmond Ritter and NFL

1716
01:23:36,120 --> 01:23:39,200
Speaker 2: Calveral quarterback can hit enough plays to keep since the

1717
01:23:39,320 --> 01:23:41,479
Speaker 2: in this game, even give them a shot to win it.

1718
01:23:41,880 --> 01:23:44,560
Speaker 2: I think Cincinnati's not getting enough respect here. Give me

1719
01:23:44,600 --> 01:23:46,479
Speaker 2: the two touchdowns. How about your favorite bet?

1720
01:23:46,920 --> 01:23:49,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think favorite from a side bet perspective, just

1721
01:23:49,439 --> 01:23:52,400
Speaker 1: forget about the points. Give me Utah first half money line.

1722
01:23:52,479 --> 01:23:54,800
Speaker 1: This is the team that's more motivated. Cam Rising has

1723
01:23:54,840 --> 01:23:56,639
Speaker 1: been one of the best quarterbacks over the last half

1724
01:23:56,680 --> 01:23:58,519
Speaker 1: of the season since he took over for Charlie Brewer

1725
01:23:58,960 --> 01:24:01,360
Speaker 1: as Ohio State team it is uninterested in playing in

1726
01:24:01,400 --> 01:24:03,400
Speaker 1: the Rose Bowl. With a huge number of opt outs,

1727
01:24:03,439 --> 01:24:06,200
Speaker 1: including some of their best skill positions on the offensive

1728
01:24:06,240 --> 01:24:07,800
Speaker 1: side of the ball, I think it's going to take

1729
01:24:07,800 --> 01:24:10,760
Speaker 1: a half before CJ. Stroud, Treyvon Henderson, some of the

1730
01:24:10,800 --> 01:24:13,240
Speaker 1: skill positions that are still around to kind of pick

1731
01:24:13,320 --> 01:24:15,160
Speaker 1: up who their new offensive line is, pick up who

1732
01:24:15,200 --> 01:24:18,000
Speaker 1: their new teammates are. And inven on defense too, we

1733
01:24:18,120 --> 01:24:21,080
Speaker 1: have some jockeying around with positions within the defense. So

1734
01:24:21,439 --> 01:24:22,680
Speaker 1: I think it's going to take a half, and if

1735
01:24:22,680 --> 01:24:24,519
Speaker 1: Fio State wants to be there, they'll show it in

1736
01:24:24,560 --> 01:24:26,200
Speaker 1: the second half, but they won't show in the first half.

1737
01:24:26,240 --> 01:24:29,080
Speaker 1: So I'll take Utah plus one forty five money line

1738
01:24:29,520 --> 01:24:30,160
Speaker 1: for the first half.

1739
01:24:30,200 --> 01:24:32,880
Speaker 2: I'll take it all right, second out favorite total of

1740
01:24:33,000 --> 01:24:35,160
Speaker 2: the ten games. I would to go at the game

1741
01:24:35,200 --> 01:24:37,680
Speaker 2: we just talked about, and that's the LSU Kansas State

1742
01:24:37,840 --> 01:24:40,880
Speaker 2: under Kansas State super slow wants to run the ball.

1743
01:24:41,800 --> 01:24:45,120
Speaker 2: I also expect LSU who's slow to run the ball.

1744
01:24:45,120 --> 01:24:47,880
Speaker 2: Here said, I all a quarterback and they're missing wide receivers,

1745
01:24:48,040 --> 01:24:51,759
Speaker 2: and I don't expect not Smart to get his waiver.

1746
01:24:52,439 --> 01:24:54,439
Speaker 2: You know, I think the State wins this game something

1747
01:24:54,600 --> 01:25:03,200
Speaker 2: like we'll call it twenty seven seventeen, maybe under forty eight.

1748
01:25:04,240 --> 01:25:06,760
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go team total wake Forest over thirty seven.

1749
01:25:06,960 --> 01:25:08,479
Speaker 1: I don't know how high you take this up to,

1750
01:25:08,640 --> 01:25:11,559
Speaker 1: but just consider the fact that Rutgers has no clue

1751
01:25:11,560 --> 01:25:13,679
Speaker 1: who's taking the trip down there to play wake Forest

1752
01:25:13,720 --> 01:25:16,719
Speaker 1: in this makeshift Bowl. But Rutgers is also dead last

1753
01:25:16,800 --> 01:25:19,360
Speaker 1: in the nation against pass explosiveness. That's a really bad

1754
01:25:19,439 --> 01:25:22,160
Speaker 1: combination to go up against Sam Hartman and a deepn

1755
01:25:22,200 --> 01:25:24,759
Speaker 1: Deacons team that is just waiting to pounce on anybody

1756
01:25:24,800 --> 01:25:26,479
Speaker 1: that shows up at the front door of this bowl game.

1757
01:25:27,360 --> 01:25:29,960
Speaker 1: This is the best defense wake Forest could have asked

1758
01:25:29,960 --> 01:25:31,960
Speaker 1: for to go against. To get points up on the board,

1759
01:25:32,400 --> 01:25:34,479
Speaker 1: They're gonna move extremely fast. I expect them to score

1760
01:25:34,520 --> 01:25:36,360
Speaker 1: on every drive. Give me a wake Forest team total

1761
01:25:36,400 --> 01:25:38,240
Speaker 1: over all, right, if.

1762
01:25:38,120 --> 01:25:39,840
Speaker 2: You look for money on underdog Parlis, I would go

1763
01:25:40,000 --> 01:25:44,880
Speaker 2: Utah and Oklahoma State third down close anxiety of the

1764
01:25:44,880 --> 01:25:48,920
Speaker 2: college football playoff predictions. I guess I have to go

1765
01:25:49,040 --> 01:25:55,800
Speaker 2: out on the extremely extremely lonely limb, and I'm gonna

1766
01:25:55,800 --> 01:26:02,560
Speaker 2: say Georgia plays Cincinnati next week. I cannot wait to

1767
01:26:02,600 --> 01:26:04,600
Speaker 2: get all kinds of shit for this one nine to

1768
01:26:04,640 --> 01:26:06,320
Speaker 2: five y five bad beat. I'll be hearing from all

1769
01:26:06,360 --> 01:26:08,920
Speaker 2: you Alabama fans. Maybe with all the opt outs and

1770
01:26:08,920 --> 01:26:12,320
Speaker 2: everyone coming back, the gap isn't that big. I don't know,

1771
01:26:12,840 --> 01:26:14,479
Speaker 2: CEC Georgia.

1772
01:26:14,880 --> 01:26:19,439
Speaker 1: It's not looking good for tomorrow's South Carolina against North

1773
01:26:19,479 --> 01:26:22,000
Speaker 1: Carolina there in Tennessee, all right, so yeah, the SEC

1774
01:26:22,120 --> 01:26:25,240
Speaker 1: could be some trouble here. Hopefully Arkansas, Alabama and Georgia can.

1775
01:26:25,120 --> 01:26:27,680
Speaker 2: Say, hopefully Tennessee my minus three holds up. I don't know.

1776
01:26:28,000 --> 01:26:30,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say that Cincinnati covers the game. That's gonna

1777
01:26:31,000 --> 01:26:34,680
Speaker 1: make the points spread Georgia minus two, and you and

1778
01:26:34,760 --> 01:26:36,960
Speaker 1: I will be landing in Las Vegas, and I am

1779
01:26:37,040 --> 01:26:38,680
Speaker 1: going to go on a shopping trip and probably be

1780
01:26:38,760 --> 01:26:42,160
Speaker 1: looking for the cheapest Georgia money line that someone will

1781
01:26:42,240 --> 01:26:43,439
Speaker 1: let me get a few dimes down.

1782
01:26:43,320 --> 01:26:47,360
Speaker 2: On YEP, I will be with you. So Georgia Alabama. Wow,

1783
01:26:47,640 --> 01:26:51,360
Speaker 2: so exciting, so different, college football, Georgia Alabama and the

1784
01:26:51,439 --> 01:26:55,479
Speaker 2: national title. All right, thanks everyone for listening. This isn't goodbye,

1785
01:26:55,760 --> 01:26:57,639
Speaker 2: it's just see you later. We'll be back next week.

1786
01:26:57,880 --> 01:27:00,719
Speaker 2: Appreciate all your support. Make sure you subscribe on crap subscribe,

1787
01:27:01,200 --> 01:27:03,439
Speaker 2: leave a review. I'll do some last maybe I'll do

1788
01:27:03,520 --> 01:27:06,200
Speaker 2: some final giveaways next week. Really do help us out

1789
01:27:06,400 --> 01:27:08,160
Speaker 2: if I'm five bad beat, if you want to call in,

1790
01:27:08,400 --> 01:27:10,599
Speaker 2: maybe we'll do some voicemails next week. After this weekend

1791
01:27:11,280 --> 01:27:14,280
Speaker 2: and I can hear from all the SEC and Alabama fans.

1792
01:27:14,400 --> 01:27:17,320
Speaker 2: But happy New Year to everyone. Have a profitable weekend.

1793
01:27:17,800 --> 01:27:21,240
Speaker 2: Thanks as always for listening. Thanks to Colin as always

1794
01:27:21,280 --> 01:27:25,120
Speaker 2: for joining me. Appreciate your support. Let's have a great

1795
01:27:25,160 --> 01:27:28,240
Speaker 2: weekend and then even be better twenty twenty two. They'll

1796
01:27:28,280 --> 01:27:28,840
Speaker 2: catch you all later.

1797
01:27:29,000 --> 01:27:29,960
Speaker 1: Cheers, peace out,