1 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Law with June Brusso from Bloomberg Radio. 2 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 1: Constitutional amendments to protect or expand abortion rights passed in 3 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 1: seven of the ten states where they appeared on the 4 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: ballot yesterday, including in some states that voted fort Donald Trump. 5 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: Abortion rights amendments passed in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, 6 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: and New York, but failed in Florida, Nebraska, and South Dakota. 7 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 1: It's a winning record for abortion rights ballot measures since 8 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to abortion in 9 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two fourteen to three, but Tuesday did end 10 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: the winning streak, joining me his healthcare attorney Harry Nelson, 11 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 1: a partner at Leech Tishman Nelson Hardiman Harry. Abortion rights 12 00:00:55,600 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: ballot measures passed in four states that voted for Trump. 13 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: How do you reconcile that, considering his having bragged about 14 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: getting Roe v. Wade reversed. 15 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 2: It's clear that abortion rights and you know, reproductive health 16 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 2: access have a majority of support in pretty much every 17 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 2: corner of America, except that the issue is not the 18 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 2: driver in this election that it was in the twenty 19 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 2: twenty two midterms, for example, and that clearly voters who 20 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 2: supported Trump were you know, willing to see his abortion 21 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 2: policy and politics as distinct from the broader anti abortion movement. 22 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 2: So it does seem like abortion was not the powerful 23 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,199 Speaker 2: issue that it was in the previous election cycles since 24 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 2: the repeal of Roe v. Wade, even though it still 25 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 2: clearly garnered significant support in most of the places where 26 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 2: it was before. 27 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: The voters Missouri, Trump won fifty eight point five percent 28 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: of the vote, but the state voted in favor of 29 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights, and Missouri's abortion law 30 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: is very strict right now. 31 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, Missouri had a near total ban on abortion, and 32 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 2: so this is a significant decision. You know. I think 33 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:18,360 Speaker 2: one of the things we can certainly take away is 34 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 2: it seems that this election, there was a huge gender 35 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 2: gap in this election, but that many men who sort 36 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 2: of you know, propelled Trump to victory in the presidential 37 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: race also supported abortion rights and voted, and this was 38 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 2: not a victory for anti abortion activists there. So I 39 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 2: don't find that result surprising. It's clear that, you know, 40 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,079 Speaker 2: President Trump opened up some space between himself and the 41 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 2: anti abortion movement, and it's also apparent that the driving 42 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 2: factors that propelled his victory had less to do with 43 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 2: reproductive rights than other issues when you see this kind 44 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 2: of a slaur result. 45 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: Now, Arizona, which had the longest ballot in state history. 46 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: It took up like two pages, and apparently, you know, 47 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: momentum was gained there because the state Supreme Court ruling 48 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: in April found that the state could enforce this strict 49 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 1: abortion ban from eighteen sixty four. 50 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the court decision earlier in Arizona. Obviously shocked 51 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 2: voters there. And so yeah, Proposition one point thirty nine, 52 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 2: it protects the right to abortion in the state constitution itself, 53 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 2: which is really significant up to the point of fetal viability, 54 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 2: which replaces and gives a longer period than the fifteen 55 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 2: week ban that had been there. So that's a significant 56 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 2: move on the part of Arizona. And again, you know, 57 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 2: not that surprising. In general, the victories that the anti 58 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 2: abortion movement has had have come from court for the 59 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 2: most part, but certainly Arizona is an example of voters, 60 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 2: you know, reflecting the same trend that we've seen in 61 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 2: the previous election cycles since ROW was repealed, and coming 62 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 2: out to ensure protection for access to abortion. 63 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 1: So Colorado's measure, besides enshrining access to abortion, also undoes 64 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: an earlier amendment that barred using state and local government 65 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: funding for abortion. So what does that mean? 66 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's e sic hint in that it really 67 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 2: opens up not just access itself, but funding, you know, 68 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 2: reimbursement for providers to keep professionals who are working this area, 69 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 2: facilities open, and ensuring access to the state portion of 70 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 2: Medicaid funds. So one of the issues that we may 71 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 2: see come up now that it looks like we're going 72 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 2: to have a Republican control over both parts of Congress 73 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,919 Speaker 2: and the presidency is potentially more restrictions on federal funding. 74 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 2: So Colorado seems to be the first state to ensure 75 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:45,919 Speaker 2: that there's going to be state funding and we're talking 76 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 2: here mostly Medicaid funding and other facilities working on special 77 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 2: grant programs in this area. So I think that's a 78 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 2: harbinger of a trend that we're likely to see in 79 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 2: other states, particularly as we see a likelihood of more 80 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 2: federal restrictions. 81 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: So in Maryland and Montana, abortion is already legal until 82 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: viability and in Nevada up to twenty four weeks. So 83 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 1: what difference does the ballot measure there make in those states. 84 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 2: In Maryland, it was a constitutional amendment, which is significant 85 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 2: because it establishes a much more permanent right than a 86 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:30,160 Speaker 2: mere ballot measure. You know, obviously, when something is placed 87 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 2: into the constitution itself, it establishes it as a fundamental 88 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 2: a more fundamental right, and it forces court to sort 89 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 2: of put a privacy on that right. And so recognizing 90 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 2: a right to abortion as part of a broader right 91 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 2: to privacy really sets a direction and state policy that's 92 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 2: going to reverberate much further in the future, and not 93 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 2: only in court review, but with regard to future ballot measures. 94 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:58,799 Speaker 2: It sort of just sets a higher order of magnitude 95 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 2: of priority on the question. And so it's obviously it's 96 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 2: a better place to be right. We see some states 97 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 2: that have moved to pass ballot initiatives because those are 98 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 2: the quickest way to get things done, just to present 99 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 2: a measure to the voters where state law allows. But 100 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 2: actually amending the state constitution really is a fundamental way 101 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 2: to give more security to the principle of a constitutional 102 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:23,159 Speaker 2: right to reproductive freedom. 103 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 1: So New York's measure was a little different. It didn't 104 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: even mention the word abortion New York, it was. 105 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 2: A supposal that prohibited discrimination based on pregnancy outcome, So 106 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,919 Speaker 2: it was not a direct abortion rights New York already 107 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 2: has an abortion rights law. But it's interesting New York 108 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 2: kind of went a step further in a different direction, right, 109 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 2: Colorado went further on funding on public funding, but New 110 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 2: York went further on identifying a possible risk of discrimination 111 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 2: that an employer could, for example, make an adverse decision 112 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 2: based on pregnancy outcome. So it's sort of to fight 113 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 2: and broadened the scope of protected rights beyond the right 114 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:06,559 Speaker 2: to the abortion itself, which was already in place. 115 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: Just because they passed these amendments, that doesn't mean that 116 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: the abortion bands in these states are suddenly off the books. 117 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: It requires some court action, doesn't it. 118 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 2: Like we've seen, you know, with abortion going back for 119 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 2: the last fifty years, a lot of times these laws 120 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 2: stay on the books, and we're actually going to need 121 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 2: test cases to come up and have courts formally rule, 122 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 2: you know, on the status of some of these old laws. 123 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: So there are a couple of places where these laws 124 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 2: are going to change things, but we're still going to 125 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 2: have to see cases filed a little bit of anxiety 126 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 2: and stress for the you know, providers and the patients 127 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 2: who are in those cases. But for better or worse, 128 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 2: that's just the process that we're going to see go 129 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 2: forward here. 130 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: I mean, can we assume that judges are going to 131 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: follow the amendments and not put their own sort of 132 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 1: stamp on it. 133 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 3: No. 134 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 2: I think the guarantee of abortion rights is something that 135 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 2: should give security here. I do think that while we 136 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 2: do see some opportunism from judges who feel strongly on 137 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 2: the anti abortion side, they can't do very much given 138 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 2: the appeal structure, and obviously appellic courts put the issue 139 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 2: before multiple judges and hopefully ensure that the law actually 140 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 2: gets followed. So I don't think anyone should worry that 141 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 2: these laws are not going to actually be you know, 142 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 2: implemented and enforced. It's just we're going to have to 143 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 2: go through a process to actually make that happen. 144 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 1: And abortion amendments did not pass in Florida, Nebraska, and 145 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: South Dakota, Florida, which unusual is that most voters supported 146 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: the Florida measure fifty seven percent, but it fell short 147 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: of the sixty percent. So what's happening is a minority 148 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 1: of voters are able to keep the abortion ban in place. 149 00:08:56,520 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a very surprising result. You know, obviously came 150 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 2: very close. It's good news, right that fifty seven percent 151 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 2: of the voters support abortion rights, but obviously this sixty 152 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 2: percent threshold that Florida law requires to amend the constitution 153 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 2: was a barrier. And so we're stuck with the current 154 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 2: Florida abortion ban, which is a six week abortion ban, 155 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 2: very early, and that's a problem. So Florida has more 156 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 2: work to do and we're going to see the fight continue. 157 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 2: The fact that it was fifty seven percent, that it 158 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 2: came so close makes me suspect that we're going to 159 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 2: see this issue return on the ballot in midterms in 160 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 2: election cycle that is likely to draw out a different 161 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 2: voting pool in midterms. That's pretty close. That's a very 162 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 2: narrow margin of defeat. So while it is a victory 163 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 2: that the anti abortion activist can claim, it's a pretty 164 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,559 Speaker 2: narrow victory and I don't think it's one that will 165 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:52,839 Speaker 2: will hold up. The problem is, for at least the 166 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 2: next two years, we're stuck with the six weeks ban 167 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 2: in Florida, and also. 168 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: The governor there, Ron DeSantis pulled out all the stops 169 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 1: against the amendment, having election police go to voters front 170 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: doors to question them about signing a petition to add 171 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 1: the abortion referendum. 172 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:12,239 Speaker 4: He had a website. 173 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 1: I mean, he really went out of his way to 174 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: try to get that defeated. 175 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a little bit surprising that the Santis went 176 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 2: to such extreme measures. But you know, who knows what 177 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: his plan is. You know, he came away from the 178 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 2: presidential election kind of seated and sailed, and obviously someone 179 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 2: is advising him that this is a winning place for 180 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 2: him to be tough. I think the broad result in 181 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 2: the fact that it's still got fifty seven percent of 182 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 2: voter support, should hopefully raise questions with whoever pushed him 183 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 2: on that strategy and give him pause. But very surprising 184 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 2: that he made such a stand on this issue. 185 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 1: So now, in Nebraska, it was the first time in 186 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 1: the state's history that conflicting petitions appeared on the same ballot, 187 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 1: and I'm wondering if that had anything to do with 188 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 1: the defeat of the abortion measure. 189 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:08,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's an issue of confusing the voters 190 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 2: with competing ballot measures here, right, the one that was 191 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,439 Speaker 2: approved was the one that enshrines the current twelve week 192 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,599 Speaker 2: ban with an exception for rape for incests into the 193 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 2: life of the mother, but the broader measure that would 194 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,600 Speaker 2: have added the right to abortion access to the state 195 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 2: constitution failed. I do think there was an element of, 196 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 2: you know, voters going for a more modest choice when 197 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 2: presented with two alternatives. And I also think that here too, 198 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 2: this election drove out a different voter base than we're 199 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 2: likely to see in the midterm elections. And I think 200 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 2: that this is not the last word in Nebraska. So 201 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 2: that while this is a setback certainly for the you know, 202 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 2: reproductive health access advocates, it was an unfortunate kind of 203 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 2: competition and one that has flowed things down in Nebraska. 204 00:11:59,640 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 5: Now. 205 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 1: South Dakota is a state with a strict ban on abortion, 206 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 1: and the Abortion Rights Amendment failed, and it was a 207 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 1: decisive fail. 208 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's probably the biggest victory for anti abortion activists 209 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 2: South Dakota as one of the most restrictive. What was 210 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 2: rejected was a constitutional amendment there that would have put 211 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 2: in a trimester based system, which was what Rote was 212 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 2: based on, essentially, with no ability to limit abortion whatsoever. 213 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 2: In the first trimester, you know, very much tied to 214 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 2: wrote in the reasonable regulation in the second trimester and 215 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 2: only you know, heavy regulation or prohibition in the third trimester. 216 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 2: And so the problem is that the defeat of that 217 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 2: amendment really leaves South Dakota as essentially a state with 218 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 2: a total ban. And I do think it's definitely the 219 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 2: biggest victory of this election cycle for the anti abortion movement. 220 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 2: I suspect that whatever you know happens next in South Dakota, 221 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 2: that there will be more activity to protect and restore 222 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 2: rights to avoid, but that it will probably be a 223 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 2: more modest initiative. And the result here, by the way, 224 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,319 Speaker 2: was strong, right, sixty one percent. Again, so it looks 225 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 2: like the likelihood for South Dakota is that any future 226 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 2: challenge will have to be a more modest approach and 227 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,079 Speaker 2: not one that tries to completely reinstate Roe v. 228 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: Wade. 229 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:19,959 Speaker 4: What kind of. 230 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 1: An impact can Trump as president have on abortion rights 231 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: in the country. 232 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 2: Well, so we've heard a lot about whether there's going 233 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:32,719 Speaker 2: to be some kind of national position created to coordinate 234 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 2: abortion restriction. Obviously, you know, we have enormous amounts of 235 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 2: federal healthcare dollars at stake through not only you know, 236 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 2: Medicare Medicaid, but through all the various federal funding programs. 237 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 2: So I think there is room if Trump is inclined 238 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 2: to be you know, supportive of anti abortion activists. Those 239 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 2: are certainly two major ways. The thing I'm watching most 240 00:13:56,280 --> 00:14:00,559 Speaker 2: closely is that we avoided a problem with the FDA 241 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:05,119 Speaker 2: pill that was challenged mifipristone, the abortion pill that activists 242 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 2: in Texas got a federal judge to ban, and we 243 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 2: saw a whole drama there that the Supreme Court put 244 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,319 Speaker 2: to rest. But now the biggest question to me is 245 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 2: whether you know, Trump's or Trump's people are going to 246 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:22,119 Speaker 2: try to make the FDA a site of more problems 247 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 2: for telemedicine abortion. We already know telemedicine abortion is with 248 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 2: mifipristone is now something like sixty percent or more of 249 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 2: all abortion, you know, which has really transformed it to 250 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 2: a much more private matter, you know, where women don't 251 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 2: have to come to clinics to have a procedure. They 252 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 2: can choose the time and place where they take the 253 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 2: medication and have much more privacy in the process itself. 254 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 2: So to me, the sort of scariest possibility is the 255 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 2: politicization of the FDA. It's going to be very interesting 256 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 2: to see what happens with health policy under Trump. A 257 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 2: couple of years ago when he was elected in twenty sixteen, 258 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 2: I co authored a book making a lot of predictions, 259 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 2: and I learned my last and it's always dangerous to 260 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,239 Speaker 2: get ahead of what's going to happen here. But I'm 261 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 2: definitely watching with data breathless see how much the FDA 262 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 2: gets politicized or hopefully whether you know, will allow the 263 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 2: experts who are policing the safety of our drugs and 264 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 2: other medical devices supplies do their workout interruptions so that 265 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 2: remains you soon, Thanks. 266 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 4: So much, Harry. 267 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: That's Harry Nelson of Leech Tishman Hardiman Nelson Coming up next. 268 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 1: Will the Third Time be the Charm? For Johnson and Johnson? 269 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg? Will the Third Time be the Charm? 270 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 1: The fate of Johnson and Johnson's latest push to use 271 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: bankruptcy courts to end thousands of cancer lawsuits tied to 272 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 1: its iconic baby powder now hinges on a high stakes 273 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 1: trial in January. A federal judge in Houston will decide 274 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: early next year whether Jay and Jay's bid to quickly 275 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 1: settle the claims with an eight point two billion dollar 276 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: payout can move ahead. A lead attorney for some whole 277 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 1: out claims of vote by claimants in support of the 278 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: deal was rigged, a charge that Jay and Jay denies. 279 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: Joining me is an expert in mass torts, Elizabeth Birch, 280 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: a professor at the University of Georgia School of Law. 281 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 1: What are the stakes in this fifteen year long litigation? 282 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, there are certainly stakes for Johnson and 283 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 3: Johnson in particular, but I think you know, they're really 284 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 3: even bigger stakes for how we handle these mass harms 285 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 3: and whether we handle them through bankruptcy or whether we 286 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 3: handle them through Article three courts. You know, So, even 287 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 3: as Johnson and Johnson is trying now for the third 288 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 3: time to in my opinion, sort of ram this bankruptcy 289 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 3: through the Article one system, we have questions about whether 290 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 3: bankruptcy can become kind of a court of first resort 291 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 3: rather than a last resort for handling massive tort claims 292 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 3: like this. 293 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: Will you explain how Johnson and Johnson is trying to 294 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: resolve the claim using a legal strategy known as the 295 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: Texas two step, where corporate shell was created to absorb 296 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 1: the cancer claims and then file for bankruptcy, and that 297 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 1: was rejected in New Jersey. 298 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 3: Sure, so it actually started off by filing in North Carolina, 299 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,439 Speaker 3: which had fairly friendly case law to them. In the 300 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 3: Fourth Circuit, that case was transferred up to New Jersey, 301 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 3: which is in the Third Circuit, and then back in 302 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 3: I believe it was twenty twenty three. The Third Circuit 303 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 3: found that the filing by Johnson and Johnson unit, which 304 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 3: is called LTL, was in bad faith essentially because the 305 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:43,640 Speaker 3: TALC unit wasn't sufficially distressed. Instead, you know, it had 306 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 3: a funding source, which was Johnson and Johnson. So it 307 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 3: didn't pass the test of being filed in good faith 308 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 3: and it was dismissed. And then not long after that 309 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 3: they filed a second time, and then now again a 310 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 3: third time. But this one is down in Texas. 311 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 4: I mean, what makes Texas different? 312 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 3: Well, Texas is a little bit different. So there have 313 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 3: been unfavorable rulings in this regard in both the Third 314 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 3: Circuit and in the Seventh Circuit. There has been a 315 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 3: favorable ruling in the Fourth Circuit, which is where Johnson 316 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 3: and Johnson originally tried to go by filing in North Carolina, 317 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 3: but yet to be determined what the Fifth Circuit will 318 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 3: do to this, although there is some reason to think 319 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 3: that maybe Fifth Circuit law would be a bit more 320 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 3: favorable to Johnson and Johnson than the Third or the 321 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 3: Seventh Circuit would. 322 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: It's before a bankruptcy judge in Texas. The plaintiffs or 323 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 1: some of the plaintiffs tried to send it back to 324 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,359 Speaker 1: New Jersey, but the judge rule that it could stay 325 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 1: in Texas. 326 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 3: That's correct. So that was the most recent ruling that 327 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 3: I know about. Was the judge in Texas, Judge Lopez, 328 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,399 Speaker 3: which is who is a bankruptcy judge, said that the 329 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 3: case did not need to move back to New Jersey 330 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,680 Speaker 3: and that he would be able to handle the case 331 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 3: quickly and fairly. 332 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: So this time Jay and Day went sort of prepared. 333 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: It got a pre approved vote of the plaintiffs. 334 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 3: Supposedly, so you know, this is what we're hearing and 335 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 3: what we're reporting. So in order for a bankruptcy plan 336 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 3: to go through, there are two ways to do it. 337 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 3: There's something called a pre pack, which is where you 338 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 3: gather the votes beforehand and when you file the bankruptcy plan, 339 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 3: you sort of have all your ducks in a row 340 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 3: such that the plan confirmation goes through very quickly. And 341 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 3: then there is just sort of the ordinary Chapter eleven 342 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 3: reorganization where you're trying to get the requisite votes as 343 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 3: you go here, they're saying that they have the requisite vote. 344 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,400 Speaker 3: There is a pretty big split among the plaintiff's law 345 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 3: firms as to whether they are in favor of this 346 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 3: plan or against this plan. And there have been, you know, 347 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,400 Speaker 3: a lot of campaigns on both sides trying to get 348 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 3: TOUP claimants to vote one way or the other, depending 349 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 3: on which firms are spigned with. 350 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 1: And now one of the plaintiff's lawyers, who is a 351 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 1: lead attorney for the holdouts, Andy birch he accused another 352 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 1: plaintiff's attorney and the consulting firm hired by Jay and 353 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: Jay to run the pre bankruptcy vote of illegally switching 354 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 1: eleven four hundred and thirty four votes from reject to accept. 355 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 3: You know, I know that Andy Birchfield and Mike Papantonio 356 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:23,400 Speaker 3: have been very vocal in opposing the town bankruptcy plans, 357 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 3: whether it was the first, the second, or the third, 358 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 3: and certainly with regard to the third So you know, 359 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 3: in some respects, it's a it's a very interesting way 360 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,880 Speaker 3: to see what's happening with this risk and the planeff Bar. 361 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 3: There may have been evidentiary hearings on that motion. I 362 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 3: have not seen those, so I'm not sure about what 363 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 3: the allegations are or whether they are true. The judge 364 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 3: will ultimately have to decide that, you know. But even 365 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 3: without the plaintiffs bar themselves getting involved, you have the 366 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 3: US Trustee who is against the plan, and so it 367 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 3: will be interesting to see what happens. I suspect that 368 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 3: we'll see an appeal either way, you know, regardless of 369 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 3: how many plaintifs ultimately vote in favor of the plan. 370 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 1: I mean, for plaintiffs attorneys, the longer they litigate and 371 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 1: the more cases they litigate, the more compensation they get 372 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 1: in attorney's fees. 373 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 3: Well, it really depends, you know. Oftentimes you'll see retainer 374 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 3: agreements that are staggered in terms of the amount of 375 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 3: work that the attorney has to put in. So you know, 376 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 3: if you settle before you ever file a complaint, you 377 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 3: get a smaller percentage of a contingency fee than you 378 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,880 Speaker 3: would if you had to file a complaint or ultimately 379 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 3: file an appeal. I haven't seen the retainer agreements in TALC, 380 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,120 Speaker 3: so it's hard to say, and I suspect they vary 381 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 3: from firm to firm. But one of the concerns I 382 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 3: think that I have about resolving mass towork cases through 383 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 3: the bankruptcy process is that you don't always have the 384 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 3: differentation between different types of planes. So, in other words, 385 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 3: bankruptcy courts really aren't equipped to try these cases and 386 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 3: to say this plaintiff should get this much and that 387 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 3: plantiff should get that much. And oftentimes what you have 388 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,120 Speaker 3: is just sort of a you know, everybody gets a haircut, 389 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 3: and oftentimes it's not a very good haircut, And so 390 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 3: claims that might be weaker from a causation perspective could 391 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,679 Speaker 3: be getting the same or more than claims that are 392 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:18,360 Speaker 3: much stronger from a causation perspective. So that's the sort 393 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 3: of big concern coming out of bankruptcy. 394 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 1: Now, if you don't have a global settlement, I mean, 395 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 1: how long would it take to get these cases litigated 396 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 1: and how long would the plaintiffs have to wait to 397 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 1: get any money? 398 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 3: Well, I mean that's the flip side argument. Is that 399 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,399 Speaker 3: you know, at some point a dollar today is worth 400 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 3: a lot more than a dollar, you know, five ten 401 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 3: years from now. And for many of the plaintiffs, I 402 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 3: think they need the money sooner rather than later, which 403 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 3: is why I suspect you see some support for the plan. 404 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,719 Speaker 3: The other side is that, you know, not all plaintiffs 405 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 3: are in it for the money. A lot of them 406 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 3: are in it to make their voices heard, to have 407 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 3: some sort of change in the system. Of course, TALC 408 00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,399 Speaker 3: is no longer. We don't have baby powder on the 409 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 3: market anymore. Johnson and Johnson quietly pulled baby powder from 410 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 3: the shelves. They didn't actually take the baby powder off 411 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 3: the shelves, but they stopped restocking it in the midst 412 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 3: of COVID. So you know, at some point we would 413 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 3: have statutes of limitation that kick in. The difficulty here 414 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 3: is that a lot of these injuries take a long 415 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,160 Speaker 3: time to manifest. So any of the cases that are 416 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,199 Speaker 3: alleging that they have some sort of as bestice exposure 417 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 3: and as best as related diseases would take you know, 418 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 3: between five to twenty to sometimes forty years to actually manifest. 419 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 3: So yes, to answer your question, we would certainly have 420 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 3: to wait a lot longer to get any sort of 421 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,119 Speaker 3: compensations to the plaineiffs if the bankruptcy plan doesn't go through. 422 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 3: But there's a question about who gets what and why 423 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 3: and whether that's going to be fair. 424 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 1: What is Jay and Jay offering in this settlement. Does 425 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 1: it just twelve billion across the board to claimants or 426 00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 1: you know, I haven't. 427 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,479 Speaker 3: Seen the numbers or what the breakdown of the numbers 428 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,880 Speaker 3: would be. You know, certainly a portion of that will 429 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 3: go to the attorneys, the ones who have handled this case. 430 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 3: And I don't know how much of that is ear 431 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 3: march for the lawyers. I'm not sure how their contracts 432 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 3: would be affected by the bankruptcy process. And you also 433 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 3: have a question about how much of that money is 434 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:22,400 Speaker 3: going to get eaten up in administrative costs. So oftentimes 435 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 3: what we see is kind of the sticker price of 436 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 3: the settlement fund ends up being a good bit smaller 437 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 3: once you figure out who gets what and why and tell. 438 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,679 Speaker 1: Us about the hearing before Judge Lopez in January. 439 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 3: So that is the hearing about whether to accept the 440 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 3: Chapter eleven prepackaged plan. That'll be the next sort of 441 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 3: you know, big moment to determine whether the plan is 442 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 3: going to proceed forward or whether they could ultimately get 443 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 3: derailed early on. 444 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 1: Do you think if this plan goes through with the 445 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 1: you know, bankruptcy part of it, do you think that 446 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 1: that could encourage other companies to try the same thing. 447 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 3: Well, you know, we've really seen an EBB and a flow. 448 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 3: You know, the short answer is yes. You know, if 449 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 3: it works for Johnson and Johnson, then you know, I 450 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 3: worry that bankruptcy is going to become the new go 451 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 3: to plan for resolving these major mass tort cases. You know, 452 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 3: but we have seen a lot of hesitation by the 453 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 3: Third Circuit and these early tout cases, as well as 454 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 3: the Seventh Circuit and the Free and Military airploig cases. 455 00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 3: And then of course, you know, we had the Supreme 456 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 3: Court in Harrington versus Purdue Pharma say that you couldn't 457 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 3: allow for these third parties like the Sacklers to get 458 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 3: the protections of bankruptcy without filing bankruptcy themselves. And my 459 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,399 Speaker 3: understand of the plan here is that you have a 460 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 3: little bit of that happening in the Red River Tout case. 461 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 3: So it's yet to be seen exactly what's going to 462 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 3: come out of the January hearing. 463 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 1: Can you compare the taut litigation to other mass tort 464 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 1: litigations in the past, Yes and no. 465 00:25:56,440 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 3: So certainly mass tort litigation starts in the bankruptcy proceeding 466 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 3: with the Augustot cases. In fact, section five twenty four G, 467 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 3: which is the as bestest code for bankruptcy, came out 468 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 3: of the asbestos litigation, and it actually started early on 469 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 3: with the Johns Manville as vestice proceedings, and then Congress 470 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 3: enacted five twenty four G to try to help streamline 471 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,400 Speaker 3: the process. But what we're seeing with the talent cases 472 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,439 Speaker 3: is really a new use of bankruptcy for a parent 473 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 3: company that doesn't really qualify as bankrupt, but using the 474 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 3: bankruptcy process through kind of a piecemeal approach with corporate 475 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:38,439 Speaker 3: laws and in a way that seems maybe not particularly fair. 476 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:40,639 Speaker 3: And I think that's the concern that we have that 477 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,440 Speaker 3: we don't have really an insolvent parent company. We're using 478 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 3: the bankruptcy process to try to shed mass toward liability, 479 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 3: but nothing else, you know, at least without these sort 480 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 3: of clear guardrails to prevent any sort of bankruptcy abuses 481 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,520 Speaker 3: and preserve you know, traditional trial process within the article 482 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 3: three courts. I worry about these cases. You know, we're 483 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,120 Speaker 3: going to have less information production coming out of the 484 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 3: litigation process, less law development, less judicial review, and potentially 485 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 3: less due process and opportunities for the plaintiffs themselves to 486 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 3: have their voices heard. 487 00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for those insights, Elizabeth. That's Professor Elizabeth 488 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 1: Birch of the University of Georgia Law School. Turning now 489 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 1: to the federal courts, half of the twelve circuit courts 490 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 1: have a majority of judges appointed by Republican presidents, up 491 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 1: from a third eight years ago, and some of the 492 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 1: most historically liberal benches, including the San Francisco based US 493 00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 1: Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, are trending rightward 494 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,199 Speaker 1: with only a narrow liberal majority. So what will happen 495 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 1: when Donald Trump has another four years to appoint judges? 496 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 1: Joining me is an expert in the federal judiciary, Carl Tobias, 497 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 1: a professor a professor at the University of Richmond Law School. 498 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 1: Let's start at the top with the Supreme Court. Do 499 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: you see any changes on the court with Trump in power? 500 00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 5: Well, it's possible, but I think unlikely. The two possible 501 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:11,640 Speaker 5: people who might resign or step down or retire are 502 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,879 Speaker 5: Alito and Thomas, and they're really acendant right now, so 503 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 5: why would they want to step down. They also seem 504 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 5: very independent, and I don't think anybody is going to 505 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,959 Speaker 5: persuade them to do that. If they don't want to 506 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 5: do it, it's their decision. And so it's not clear 507 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 5: to me at all that there'll be any changes there. 508 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 1: And I think that Thomas once said that he was 509 00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 1: going to die on the Supreme Court in order to 510 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:37,400 Speaker 1: get back at the Liberals. 511 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 5: Well, as I said, they're ascendent right now, and they're 512 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 5: not that old. I mean, they're in their mid seventies, right, 513 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 5: and so we're accustomed to having justices who serve for life. 514 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 5: I don't know that there will be any resignations in 515 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:55,720 Speaker 5: the next four years. It seems unlikely to me. 516 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 4: Now, let's talk about the circuit courts. 517 00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,800 Speaker 1: Half of the twelve circuit courts have a majority of 518 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 1: judges appointed by Republican presidents, up from a third eight 519 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 1: years ago. Trump tipped the ideological balance of the Third Circuit, 520 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 1: which is based in Philadelphia, the Eleventh Circuit, which is 521 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,480 Speaker 1: based in Atlanta, and the Second Circuit. 522 00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 4: Based in New York. 523 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 1: But President Biden wasn't able to replicate his success with 524 00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 1: appellate courts in. 525 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 5: Terms of numbers, that's true. And in terms of tipping 526 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,640 Speaker 5: as you're suggesting or flipping, I think he did flip 527 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:37,120 Speaker 5: back the second circuit right, but not the third as 528 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 5: you say. Though if Mongy is confirmed it it becomes 529 00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 5: very close, maybe tied, and so we'll see. He I 530 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:52,160 Speaker 5: think will still confirm something like forty nine, perhaps maybe fifty, 531 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:57,000 Speaker 5: and Trump confirmed fifty four. So I think that's a 532 00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 5: pretty substantial success given how many seats vacancies were saved 533 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 5: in twenty fifteen sixteen for Trump by McConnell and the 534 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,600 Speaker 5: Republicans when they had the majority and basically just shut 535 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 5: down the process for the Obama nominees in those last 536 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 5: two years. So it shouldn't be surprising. But now the 537 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,239 Speaker 5: Democrats have returned the favor because it may be that 538 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:26,600 Speaker 5: there's only a few and maybe only one or two 539 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 5: appellate vacancies available for Trump at least at the beginning 540 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 5: of his tenure in January. But there are of course 541 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:40,280 Speaker 5: eligible appellate judges who satisfy the rule of eighty. They're 542 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 5: sixty five and have fifteen years of experience, and they 543 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 5: could assume senior status. And I think there are a 544 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,920 Speaker 5: couple of dozen of those who are Republican appointees and 545 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 5: five or so who are Democratic appointees. So some of 546 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 5: them may decide to assume senior status, but it's not 547 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 5: entirely clear. 548 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 1: And so the death or retirement of a Democrat an 549 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 1: appointee on the Second Circuit or two on the Ninth 550 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 1: would flip those courts to a majority of Republican appointees. 551 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,959 Speaker 5: Guests could do that. Of course, those are big courts 552 00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:18,120 Speaker 5: that have large numbers of members and many senior judges. 553 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,480 Speaker 5: But you're right, and that would be important for the 554 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,920 Speaker 5: en banc Court, of course, as well as for three 555 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 5: judge panels. 556 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,640 Speaker 1: So the Ninth Circuit got a reputation in the eighties 557 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 1: and early nineties, you know, as being this liberal court, 558 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 1: and even you know, till recently, it was how many 559 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: times was the Ninth Circuit going to be reversed by 560 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. It was always the top circuit to 561 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: be reversed until recently. But even that court, though it's 562 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:49,840 Speaker 1: majority Democrat appointees, is not as liberal. 563 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 4: As it used to be. 564 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,560 Speaker 5: That's right. Trump, I think appointed ten people to that court, 565 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 5: and it's a twenty nine judge court, and so that 566 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 5: is making a difference, I think, and moving a court 567 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 5: back to the middle, if you will, there may be 568 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:10,280 Speaker 5: opportunities because I think some of the Republican appointees on 569 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 5: that court now, especially Bush appointees, are eligible for senior 570 00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 5: status and may take it. 571 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,480 Speaker 1: So Trump would more likely with the Circuit Court succeed 572 00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 1: in making in making the Republican appointees younger, rather than 573 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 1: flipping to more Republican than Democratic appointees. 574 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,239 Speaker 5: Well, I think it depends on what he wants to 575 00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 5: do and who is advising him, and the vacancies that 576 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 5: he has. And I don't think the tradition, such as 577 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 5: it is of resigning or taking senior status with the 578 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 5: president of the same party has appointed you, necessarily holds 579 00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,480 Speaker 5: beyond the Supreme Court. So I think we have seen 580 00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:02,520 Speaker 5: in modern times that in the last decade that often 581 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 5: judges tried to honor that if they can, and that 582 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:11,800 Speaker 5: reflects some greater partisanship on the appeals courts then maybe 583 00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:15,160 Speaker 5: was the case before, because of course the appeals courts 584 00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,960 Speaker 5: are the decision makers. In ninety nine percent of cases. 585 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,200 Speaker 4: Let's talk about district courts. 586 00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 1: What do you see as the outlook there for Trump? 587 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 5: Well more in terms of numbers, of course, but of 588 00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,400 Speaker 5: course they're six hundred and seventy seven judge ships at 589 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,800 Speaker 5: the district level and only one hundred and seventy nine 590 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 5: at the appellate level, so there are more possibilities there, though. 591 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 5: I think Biden and the White House have committed to 592 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 5: confirming as many people for the districts as possible, and 593 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:55,920 Speaker 5: I think that the number will be something like thirty 594 00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 5: or maybe even twenty if Biden confirms all the people 595 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,160 Speaker 5: who are on the floor now or close to being 596 00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,160 Speaker 5: on the floor and trying to eclipse Trump. I mean, 597 00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,560 Speaker 5: they're committed to topping the two hundred and thirty one circuit 598 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:14,799 Speaker 5: and district appointees of Trump, and they're closing in on that, 599 00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 5: and I think that's what they'll do in the five 600 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,800 Speaker 5: weeks of the lame Duck that starts on November twelveth. 601 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:26,320 Speaker 1: We've talked before about how the Trump appointees were often 602 00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:32,440 Speaker 1: ideological picks rather than being picked because of their legal acumen. 603 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 1: So what do you think in this second term? Will 604 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:37,319 Speaker 1: it be even more so. 605 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 5: Well, it's possible, and there have been a number of 606 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 5: articles in the legal press suggesting that the Federal Society 607 00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:51,279 Speaker 5: picks from Leonard Leo are not sufficiently conservative and so 608 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:56,280 Speaker 5: calls for the people to be basically loyalists for Trump, 609 00:34:56,400 --> 00:35:00,879 Speaker 5: which is I think his view, and so that's what 610 00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:04,000 Speaker 5: some people are concerned about, and there's been a number 611 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,160 Speaker 5: of articles to that effect. Depends partly on the majority 612 00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 5: and the size of the majority in the Senate and 613 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:15,760 Speaker 5: whether Democrats can have any Republicans who will vote against 614 00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 5: Trump's people who he nominates, and how many steets he 615 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,960 Speaker 5: actually has. So some of that is just, you know, 616 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:26,480 Speaker 5: contingent on a lot of different factors, and so it 617 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 5: may not come to pass that there'll be that many 618 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:35,239 Speaker 5: people who move through. Also, the situation this year was 619 00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:40,000 Speaker 5: particularly difficult for Democrats to hold the razor thin majority 620 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,479 Speaker 5: they had, so something like twenty three seats were up 621 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,880 Speaker 5: they were defending. Well that's exactly the number that or 622 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:50,400 Speaker 5: something very close to that, which Republicans will be defending 623 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 5: in twenty twenty six. So the majority may be short 624 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,200 Speaker 5: lived in the Senate, and so we'll just have to 625 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,880 Speaker 5: see what happens there. So that's a lot of contingencies, 626 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:05,920 Speaker 5: and especially whether the GOP appointees on the bills courts 627 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,480 Speaker 5: will choose to step down. Some may for age or 628 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,120 Speaker 5: health reasons, but we don't know how many that'll be. 629 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,839 Speaker 5: I think they are about three dozen who are eligible. 630 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,839 Speaker 5: Many contingencies operating now, and we just have to see 631 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:23,400 Speaker 5: how that works. The new Chair of Judiciary will be 632 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 5: Chuck Grassley from Iowa, who of course have chaired in 633 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 5: the four years of the Trump administration. So he will 634 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,040 Speaker 5: take the reins of that committee over from me. 635 00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 4: He's ninety one years old. 636 00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:39,759 Speaker 5: Yes, but still going strong apparently, and I think in 637 00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,080 Speaker 5: his eighth term. And he does have the history. Of course, 638 00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:47,440 Speaker 5: he's the one who created the circuit exception that Trump 639 00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:51,360 Speaker 5: was able to use, but he also has been there 640 00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:56,880 Speaker 5: and seeing how that can be detrimental, and so Durbin 641 00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,319 Speaker 5: has retained it. He said, we're not having one rule 642 00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 5: for Democrats in a different rule for Republicans. Actually, this 643 00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:07,000 Speaker 5: year there was a big debate in committee when the 644 00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:10,399 Speaker 5: North Carolina Senators were upset that the White House had 645 00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 5: put somebody up as a nominee they didn't want in 646 00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:18,640 Speaker 5: North Carolina. Tom Tellis called for regular order, a return 647 00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:21,359 Speaker 5: to regular order, and Durmann said, yes, absolutely, Well let's 648 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:25,120 Speaker 5: do that after the election. So we'll see if that 649 00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:26,400 Speaker 5: comes to pass. 650 00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:28,640 Speaker 1: And what do you think will happen in the lame 651 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:29,400 Speaker 1: duck session. 652 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 5: Biden and the White House are committed to confirming everybody 653 00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:38,560 Speaker 5: who is in process, and that would be five appellate 654 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:44,799 Speaker 5: nominees and around twenty more district nominees and that would 655 00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:49,120 Speaker 5: allow them to eclipse Trump's two thirty one in his term. 656 00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,719 Speaker 5: And that's the goal and they're committed to it, and 657 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:52,960 Speaker 5: they have five weeks to do it. 658 00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:56,160 Speaker 1: Well, see if it can be done. Thanks so much, Carl. 659 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,920 Speaker 1: That's Professor Carl Tobias of the University of Richmond lost 660 00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:02,040 Speaker 1: its cool. And that's it for this edition of the 661 00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Law Podcast. Remember you can always get the latest 662 00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,319 Speaker 1: legal news by subscribing and listening to the show on 663 00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:12,719 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and at Bloomberg dot com, slash podcast, 664 00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:13,680 Speaker 1: Slash Law. 665 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,719 Speaker 4: I'm June Grosso and this is Bloomberg