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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? There were running again? So

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Speaker 2: smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 1: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind and buddy, and that's why.

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Speaker 4: You see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The love is left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 2: Drilled bibus how old Earth? Pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Helloi one and welcome back to Wondergolf, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. Money is Michael Leebuff and

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Speaker 4: joining me as always BJ Cunningham and Sam Ingram from

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Speaker 4: Bettingexpert dot com, and together the three of us are

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Speaker 4: going to go through all ten Premier League matches coming

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Speaker 4: our way this weekend. For Match Week two, we'll take

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Speaker 4: a little jaunt around Europe, talk some championship, give out

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Speaker 4: our three like underdog parlay this week is coming in

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Speaker 4: at one hundred and thirty one to one, and then

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Speaker 4: give out our favorite bets for the Premier League this weekend.

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Speaker 4: Right back into it, gents, and right back into it

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Speaker 4: at the top of the show. With Manchester United, they

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Speaker 4: are essentially a pick them against Brighton on the south coast.

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Speaker 4: Brighton plus one fifty on the three way line at

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Speaker 4: bet three sixty five, Manchester United plus one sixty two.

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Speaker 4: The draw here is plus two seventy. I would have

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Speaker 4: been floored if I saw anything otherwise, but Sam, all

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Speaker 4: three of us are are in lockstep here. I think

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Speaker 4: that the value is on the home side, which is

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Speaker 4: not a surprise at all.

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Speaker 2: Yes, hello Michael.

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Speaker 3: My first for the pot is yet Brighton Asian handcupped

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Speaker 3: zero point zero can get that around minus one ten.

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Speaker 3: So I said on last week's podcast that Fabian Hurtzler

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Speaker 3: might be set for a baptism of fire in English football.

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Speaker 3: And they've come out the other side winning three nil.

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Speaker 3: So he's turned up with two fire trucks and either

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Speaker 3: wing in Mitober and Minta and they run Everton ragged

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Speaker 3: on the whole. Danny Welbeck looks like he's getting better

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Speaker 3: somehow despite his advancing years, and they've got a lot

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Speaker 3: of really good options on the bench too, And they've

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Speaker 3: started this season in a similar vein to how they

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Speaker 3: navigated their preseason friendlies.

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Speaker 2: I think Everton were unlucky.

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Speaker 3: They had an offside go disallowed at nil Neil, they

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Speaker 3: had another chance which I think was going to be

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Speaker 3: ruled out for offside in Dwight McNeil, and they were

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Speaker 3: also a penalty for dunks challenge on Calvert.

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Speaker 2: Lewin.

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Speaker 3: Just wanted to get your opinions on that because I

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Speaker 3: think it was a penalty. I think I think that

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Speaker 3: should have been a penalty.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but I knew it wasn't going to be as

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Speaker 4: soon as as soon as they went over everything.

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Speaker 1: If it's a penalty on the field, that's my question.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well it's it's everted, it's it's yeah, how it is.

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Speaker 1: Like, you know, if you didn't call that a penalty

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Speaker 1: and they looked at it, I get maybe saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: no penalty, was just stick with the car, but they

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Speaker 1: call it a penalty on the field.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but I would say you're right, like they were unlucky,

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Speaker 4: but brighton full value, like yeah, running off place.

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Speaker 2: That's true.

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Speaker 3: I just wanted to bring it up because the defenders

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Speaker 3: slid in put his foot there and then you know

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Speaker 3: he's made cavalu and full of I just didn't get that,

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Speaker 3: and then the rest gone to the sideline, didn't watch

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Speaker 3: a replay, and still still returned it.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, that is very evident.

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Speaker 3: But I just feel like this brighton front line is

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Speaker 3: going to cause all sorts of problems for United if

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Speaker 3: they're click into gear like we saw at stages in

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Speaker 3: the Everton game. It's the first game of the hurt

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Speaker 3: sal era at the MX. If they're as good off

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Speaker 3: the ball and on the board, then they will get

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Speaker 3: their chances. If you look at that first go specifically,

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Speaker 3: when Mitoma receives it on the edge of the box, turns,

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Speaker 3: carries it through the fur lays it off to Minta,

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Speaker 3: who then gets down the wing before Midtomas sprint towards

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Speaker 3: the back post and then scored. It was so impressive.

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Speaker 3: If that happens against United, they will cause all sorts

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Speaker 3: of problems against that midfield. Minta went off with what

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Speaker 3: looked like a head injury. I think he should be

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Speaker 3: okay here. He seemed really disheartened to go off, so

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Speaker 3: I think he should be fine. He looks like a

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Speaker 3: great pickup from Newcastle, who I think had to get

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Speaker 3: rid of him due to PSR concerns. Brighton opened as

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Speaker 3: the underdogs in this game, but that since changed. It

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Speaker 3: is still a pick them, but they are slight favorites now,

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Speaker 3: so that's a good sign for anyone fancying a home

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Speaker 3: result here. And interestingly, Brighton are actually a bit of

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Speaker 3: a bogie team for man United. United have lost forty

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Speaker 3: three percent of their Premier League meetings with Brighton, so

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Speaker 3: six out of fourteen, and that's their highest loss rate

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Speaker 3: against a single opponent in the competition's history. So the

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Speaker 3: zero point zero Asian handicap effectively drawn O bet that

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Speaker 3: shifted from evens to about minus one ten and I

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Speaker 3: still think that's a nice play with the draw on

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Speaker 3: our side, so I'm happy to take that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm with you here. If you picture this match

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Speaker 4: in your mind, like you can just see Brighton swarming

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Speaker 4: and swarming and United just suffocating basically and not being

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Speaker 4: able to cope. And it'll come down to whether or not,

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Speaker 4: like the three or four chances that United can catch

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Speaker 4: if they go in or not. So I'm happy to

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Speaker 4: bet Brighton here at home.

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Speaker 2: BJ.

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Speaker 4: I think that this is a really good bet to

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Speaker 4: start the show.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I agree. I think that the first

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Speaker 1: twenty minutes or so for Brighton against Everton wasn't that great.

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Speaker 1: I think they kind of struggled to figure out Herzeler's system,

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Speaker 1: but once they did, they were doing a lot of

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Speaker 1: things to Everton that I haven't seen very many teams do.

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Speaker 1: They were, you know, essentially, it was splitting the center backs.

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Speaker 1: Wifer was a single pivot. It was a lot of

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Speaker 1: different build up formations and a lot of trying to

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Speaker 1: keep Everton guessing. But the main point of what they

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Speaker 1: were trying to do is stretch Everton's defensive block. Because

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Speaker 1: Everton is so good at denying teams playing through the middle.

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Speaker 1: They wanted to stretch their defensive block and they kept

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Speaker 1: getting the wingers in one v ones, whether they were

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Speaker 1: inverting or going wide, and they were just running them ragged.

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Speaker 1: And that's where I think Brighton can really hone in

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Speaker 1: here against Manchester. Dalla is a great defensive center back.

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Speaker 1: Masarawi is not. He's great in build up, he's a

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Speaker 1: great passer, he's great at getting forward. He's not the

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Speaker 1: defender that Aaron jan Basaka, for example, was last season

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Speaker 1: for United. So him going going up against Matoma, who

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Speaker 1: is probably what one or to the top five dribbler

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League. That's a very bad match up

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Speaker 1: for Manchester United. The other aspect is, you know, I

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Speaker 1: know United created over to expected goals against Fulham. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they were really that good if that sounds

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Speaker 1: if that sounds bad, But you know, their biggest chance

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Speaker 1: came at the end when the game got stretched and

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Speaker 1: Garnacho had a wide open goal and they just didn't

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Speaker 1: score it. But the press really wasn't that good for

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Speaker 1: large stretches of the match, like they were still very hesitant.

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Speaker 1: It was like the same old United where press was

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Speaker 1: kind of hesitant and Fulham was able to kind of

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Speaker 1: play their way through the first twenty minutes of the match.

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Speaker 1: Fulham was actually holding fifty seven percent of the possession

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Speaker 1: and I really hadn't had a chance. And the one

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Speaker 1: thing that Brighton's going to do defensively that I think

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Speaker 1: is going to cause United a lot of problems is

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Speaker 1: they're going to play a high line like they did

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Speaker 1: against Everton, and if United not having Hoyland in there

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Speaker 1: and having whether it be Xerxi or Buno Fernanz playing

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Speaker 1: as a false nine, those are not the type of

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Speaker 1: strikers that you just play balls in over the top

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Speaker 1: two like those are the type of strikers you drop

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Speaker 1: deep in build up. So I don't really think it's

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Speaker 1: that great of a match up here for Manchester United.

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Speaker 1: And you mentioned as bogie team Sam. The four matches

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Speaker 1: that ten Hog has been in charge at United against Brighton,

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Speaker 1: Brighton has won three of the four. The one that

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Speaker 1: they lost was on the final day last year when

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Speaker 1: it was Deserbe's last game and they had absolutely nothing

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Speaker 1: to play for. But Brighton has won the expected goals

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Speaker 1: battle in all four of the meetings that ten Hog

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Speaker 1: has been in charge against Brighton. So I'm with you, guys.

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Speaker 1: I like Brighton, Jon obtt mine one ten.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it feels like this matchup, especially it coming early

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Speaker 4: in the season, it's like Taylor made for Brighton here

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Speaker 4: all r. Let's move on to Everdon. We'd already talked

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Speaker 4: about them a little bit, but they're taking on Spurs

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Speaker 4: at home is a hefty minus two forty favorite Everton

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Speaker 4: traveling plus five fifty. There are bigger numbers out there too,

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Speaker 4: and the draw here is plus three seventy five.

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Speaker 2: BJ.

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Speaker 1: We're back, yeah, we are so back, man.

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Speaker 4: I don't want to do it. But the price is

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Speaker 4: just like it's the price is good.

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Speaker 1: This is crazy. I you know here, I'll just I'll

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Speaker 1: start off with this and then we'll dig into it.

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Speaker 1: But just purely expected gol differential last season through the

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Speaker 1: entire season, you know, both teams sustained injuries, both teams

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Speaker 1: went through bad periods. Everton minus one point two Tottenham

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Speaker 1: plus four point eight. There really wasn't that big of

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Speaker 1: a difference in the underlying metrics between these two teams,

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Speaker 1: at least showing what the odds are right now. And

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Speaker 1: if you go back to the two meetings between them,

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Speaker 1: first meeting, which was at Spurs, Everton won the expected

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Speaker 1: goals battle one point eight to one point five, had

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Speaker 1: thirty one touches in Tottenham's penalty area and took eighteen shots.

191
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Speaker 1: Second meeting was one of my favorite matches I think

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Speaker 1: of the Premier League season last year, Michael, because Everton

193
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Speaker 1: created two point six expected goals I think entirely off

194
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Speaker 1: of corners and they just exploited Tottenham again and again

195
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Speaker 1: and again off of set pieces. And what says they

196
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Speaker 1: can't do the exact same thing here in this match?

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Speaker 1: I mean tottenam was third worst in terms of x

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Speaker 1: she allowed per set piece. Last season, Lester only got

199
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Speaker 1: two set pieces against them. That Leicester match was quite

200
00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:39,839
Speaker 1: interesting because if you watched the first half, that looked

201
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Speaker 1: like the Tottenham of the first two months last year.

202
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Speaker 1: They were like suffocating Lester and I was screaming at

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Speaker 1: the TV. Just play the ball along, Steve Cooper, stopped

204
00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:49,760
Speaker 1: trying to build out of the back, just root one

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Speaker 1: against these guys, and you saw them kind of do

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Speaker 1: that a little more. In the second half. Lester applied

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Speaker 1: more ball pressure, they started to play more transitionally and

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Speaker 1: they started to exploit some of Tottenham's weakness, which obviously

209
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Speaker 1: we've already talk about set pieces, but they're not that

210
00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,640
Speaker 1: great of a transition defense, and when the press doesn't

211
00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:09,880
Speaker 1: close down, they're way too aggressive and you're gonna have

212
00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 1: numbers against them in transition, especially in wide areas, because

213
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Speaker 1: they build out in that two three five and that's

214
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Speaker 1: exactly where Everton's gonna go. They're gonna get the ball

215
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Speaker 1: out wide and they're gonna send in crosses. They're the

216
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Speaker 1: more physical teams. So I don't think that Tottenham should

217
00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,079
Speaker 1: be this big of a favorite. So I got two

218
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Speaker 1: bets here. Both teams to score at minus one fifty,

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Speaker 1: I think both teams off. You know, Tottenham is a

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Speaker 1: very aggressive team offensively, and the way that Brighton was

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Speaker 1: able to exploit Everton, I think Tottenham can do very

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Speaker 1: similar things with the way they invert their fullbacks. And also,

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Speaker 1: like Everton plus one and a half at minus one

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Speaker 1: forty five, I really think that the tottam is severely overvalued.

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Speaker 1: And we're also looking at Tottenham potentially having a midfield

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Speaker 1: of kids Archie Gray and Verba all excuse me if

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Speaker 1: I mispronounced that, because Bent and Curs hurt and looks

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Speaker 1: like Presuma is not going to be back in the lineup.

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Speaker 1: So that's troublesome against a team as physical as Everton.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, and it also kind of plays into the

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Speaker 4: thing I would be most concerned about with Everten going

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Speaker 4: into this match, which is the middle of the pitch

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Speaker 4: has been a little bit haphazard and they've had injuries already.

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Speaker 4: So with that advantage kind of taken out of the book,

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Speaker 4: I do think Everton has some value here. I don't

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Speaker 4: think that they're gonna win. I'm gonna play it, but

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Speaker 4: the number tells you they're not likely to win, but

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Speaker 4: basically should be.

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Speaker 1: Back too for this match unless he Yeah, and they

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Speaker 1: also have moved.

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Speaker 4: Somewhere Jacobrien on the bench too, Like there's there's options

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Speaker 4: in the middle of that back line. So I'm not

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Speaker 4: too worried about Everton, like personal in the back. It's

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Speaker 4: just gonna come down to whether or not they can

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Speaker 4: handle themselves in the middle of the field. Sam, I

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Speaker 4: know you're not as bullish on as us on Everden

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Speaker 4: here in this match, but like, how do you get

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Speaker 4: to Tattenham at this price considering is it just just

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Speaker 4: based off what we saw last weekend from Everton in

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Speaker 4: the score line, because it does seem like this thing

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Speaker 4: is a little a little exaggerated.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I'm just not brave enough to take

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Speaker 3: Everton on. That's that's all it is. I'm not having

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Speaker 3: a bet on this one. I don't want to take

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Speaker 3: Tottenham at the prices. I'm just a bit of a

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Speaker 3: coward for taking ever And just that that opening game

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Speaker 3: from Tottenham, Like how how spursy was that? Like they've

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Speaker 3: absolutely killed me? That was that was ida bet in

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Speaker 3: that game on Monday night, Tottenham on the on the

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Speaker 3: Asian handicap and thirty five minutes into the game, Spurs

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Speaker 3: had registered nine shots to Leicester's zero, nine corners to

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Speaker 3: Leicester's zero. Each chance that came and was squandered. I

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Speaker 3: knew exactly what was coming. We've seen it one hundred

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Speaker 3: times in recent memory, and Lester did exactly that. Vardy

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Speaker 3: pegged it back to one one. The expected goes in

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Speaker 3: the underlying data will tell you that this was a

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Speaker 3: close game, but I'm not having it. Spurs were good,

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Speaker 3: but they were wasteful and will have been fuming. I'm

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Speaker 3: sure you've seen pictures of him on the sideline, almost

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Speaker 3: looked like he was about to cry. I'd expect Tottenham.

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Speaker 3: I'd expect there to be some kind of response. I

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Speaker 3: think they're going to create chances, which is why I'm

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Speaker 3: a little hesitant to take Everton on. They should win

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Speaker 3: the game, as the odds suggests, but at the prices

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Speaker 3: minus won fifty odd for the win, I won't be

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Speaker 3: taking that. And I kind of like minus one oh

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Speaker 3: five for both teams to scoring over two point five goals.

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Speaker 3: I think we might see a few goals. I think

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Speaker 3: Tottenham are there for the taking at times. Like BJ said,

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Speaker 3: they do press aggressively and lead that leave themselves exposed.

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Speaker 3: And I kind of like Everton on the counter. I

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Speaker 3: think they're quite a good transition team, so I would

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Speaker 3: expect the Everton to score well. I would expect them

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Speaker 3: to have a chance or two is whether they take

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Speaker 3: it or not. So maybe minus one of five for

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Speaker 3: both teams to scoring over two point five goals, but

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Speaker 3: that's more of a lead than anything.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and of course make sure to bet your Chardleisson

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Speaker 4: anytime goal scorer now that he hasn't been sold yet,

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Speaker 4: so if he's still kicking around at Tottenham.

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Speaker 1: Everything should bring him back.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they really should miss him.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 4: Let's move on to the biggest favorite on the board

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Speaker 4: this weekend, which is Manchester City. They are minus eleven

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Speaker 4: hundred on the three way line at bet three sixty

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Speaker 4: five taking on newly promoted Ipswich Town eighteen to one

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Speaker 4: for the Tractor Boys, and the draw here is eleven

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Speaker 4: to one. Actually, was kind of impressed with Ipswich all

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Speaker 4: things considered against Liverpool. How much of that is just

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Speaker 4: the kind of adrenaline and the atmosphere being back in

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Speaker 4: the Premier League after so long, and obviously Liverpool has

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Speaker 4: a new manager, so you catch them in that situation. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 4: I thought the first, you know, forty ish minutes right

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Speaker 4: right around halftime. It's right before halftime. It's hard to

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Speaker 4: feel like the game was going the other way, and

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Speaker 4: it was a matter of time before Liverpool ran away

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Speaker 4: with it. That said, you go from Liverpool to City

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Speaker 4: to start your Premier League, it's brutal. And we noticed

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Speaker 4: this last season with these quote unquote like huge underdogs. Right,

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Speaker 4: this price is too short on Ipswich. We used to

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Speaker 4: catch twenty five to one in these situations with a

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Speaker 4: newly promoted team against the best team in the world,

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Speaker 4: and now it's eighteen to one and everything's going to

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Speaker 4: be correlated off that. It's just not long enough in

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Speaker 4: terms of like true odds. So but grudgingly, I'm I'm

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Speaker 4: going to pass here. I'm rude on for the chaos,

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Speaker 4: but not too much that interests me in this match

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Speaker 4: at all.

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Speaker 3: Sam same Really, I just wanted to get a couple

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Speaker 3: of leans out there, because I know people like backing

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Speaker 3: the big favorites.

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Speaker 2: In some way.

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Speaker 3: Ipswich didn't disgrace themselves against Liverpool. They had a few

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Speaker 3: chances pressed really well in the first half. Liverpool struggled

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Speaker 3: to get out with times, but I think that was

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Speaker 3: always going to be tough to continue for the ninety minutes,

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Speaker 3: especially against that Liverpool team. We might see something similar

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Speaker 3: this weekend against City until City eventually grinds them down.

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Speaker 2: You would think.

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Speaker 3: I feel like they'll ipswich. I feel like they will

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Speaker 3: give Premier League teams that are really good go this season.

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Speaker 3: Amari Hutchinson look bright. Sammy Schmollits came on for fifteen

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Speaker 3: minutes their new signing. I think he'll be a good

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Speaker 3: player in the Premier League. Calvin Phillips showed his face

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Speaker 3: on the bench. If he can work his way back

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Speaker 3: to the Calvin Phillips we saw at Leeds, then it's

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Speaker 3: some signing. But that's a big, big if, And obviously

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Speaker 3: he's unavailable for this visit as well as his parent club,

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Speaker 3: Man City comes, he goes and plays against or should

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Speaker 3: I say it's which goes and plays against Man City,

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Speaker 3: so obviously he'll be unavailable. City one point zero nine

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Speaker 3: at the eight had to get the win. So the

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Speaker 3: last time City opened at that price it was versus

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Speaker 3: Looton Town last season. On the thirteenth of April. The

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Speaker 3: Asian line was minus two point seventy five that day

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Speaker 3: and it's currently minus two point five. They won five one,

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Speaker 3: so maybe there's a little bit of value in that.

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Speaker 3: If that's anything to go off. You could also look

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Speaker 3: at City to win both halfs that's at minus one twenty.

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Speaker 3: That could be away to the game if you look

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Speaker 3: in at a pro city angle a palatical enough price,

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Speaker 3: or if you think Ipswich can harass and howry and

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Speaker 3: keep City at bay like they did with Liverpool in

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Speaker 3: the first half for the majority of the first half,

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Speaker 3: then most go scored in the second half is minus

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Speaker 3: at one five, so that could be a way in

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Speaker 3: as well. But yeah, the main market's at the prices.

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Speaker 3: It's it's probably just one to swear anything.

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Speaker 4: For you, hear bj No.

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Speaker 1: I will say this about Ipswich. They went mando man

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Speaker 1: for the entire match against Liverpool and they obviously had

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Speaker 1: the energy and the adrenaline for the first half and

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Speaker 1: it worked and they were winning every single duel. And

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Speaker 1: then as the match went on you saw them saw

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Speaker 1: them start to wear down from playing that aggressive pressing

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Speaker 1: system and that's where Liverpool started getting started completing more

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Speaker 1: long balls and behind because they obviously have superior attackers

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Speaker 1: to switch defenders. So again, if Ipswich is going to

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Speaker 1: go Manda Man for the entire season, I don't think

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Speaker 1: that's the best strategy, but we'll see how it works.

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Speaker 4: Okay, moving on to Palace and west Ham. Also on

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Speaker 4: Saturday morning at Crystal Palace plus one fifteen west Ham

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Speaker 4: plus two twenty the draws plus two sixty a really entertaining,

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Speaker 4: crazy game from west Ham and Villa on the opening weekend, DJ,

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Speaker 4: I think this price is starting to get me towards

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Speaker 4: west Ham. You're on the other side of it, But

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Speaker 4: Sam and I are out of this one. You're the

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Speaker 4: only one with any conviction, so I'll turn it over

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Speaker 4: to you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So I think that you know, the core problem

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Speaker 1: with west Ham last season under David moy Is is

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Speaker 1: they were an incredibly passive defensive block and they were

384
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Speaker 1: not good in mass They conceed one point eight seven

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Speaker 1: expectacles for ninety minutes, they allowed the most box entries,

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Speaker 1: they were bottom of the barrel, and a lot of

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Speaker 1: defensive metrics. And to think that everything is just going

388
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Speaker 1: to change now that little potage has come in, I

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Speaker 1: think was I think is a bit naive because the

390
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Speaker 1: core problem with west Ham is because they lost to

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Speaker 1: Eckland Rice last season. He was everything in terms of

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Speaker 1: ball stopping for them. Edison Alvarez couldn't make up for that.

393
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Speaker 1: I don't even know if he was even going to

394
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Speaker 1: play in this match. You saw in that first match

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Speaker 1: that aston Villa was able to just play through once

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Speaker 1: they beat the first line of the pressure, they were

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Speaker 1: able to just play through the middle whenever they wanted to.

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Speaker 1: And the other problem is that west Ham was not

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Speaker 1: winning any of the duels at all. Aston Villa won

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Speaker 1: sixty three percent of the ground duels. That was the

401
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Speaker 1: highest ground duel win rate of anybody in match week one.

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Speaker 1: So the core problems of west Ham are still there.

403
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Speaker 1: Just because you go from a low defensive block to

404
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 1: a high block under low potagi doesn't mean that they're

405
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Speaker 1: going to get any better or even actually they're probably

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Speaker 1: even going to get a little worse if you're defending

407
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Speaker 1: higher up pitch. Crystal Palace is a really good build

408
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Speaker 1: up team. They played through Brentford's defensive block very very well.

409
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Speaker 1: They just couldn't generate the high quality chances at the

410
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Speaker 1: end because Brentford's one of the best penalty box defending

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Speaker 1: teams in the Premier League. I mean as they had

412
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Speaker 1: I think eight sh the most of anybody in match

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Speaker 1: week one and maybe you're six, but he had the

414
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Speaker 1: most shots of anybody in match week one. And obviously

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Speaker 1: Glasner's system is get the ball to your best player

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Speaker 1: and let him create all the chances, which you know

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Speaker 1: in the end, you know, Crystal Palace did only create

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Speaker 1: a little bit over one expected goal, but they're going

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Speaker 1: to be facing a much worse defensive team here. These

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Speaker 1: two teams played on April twenty first, Lasner was in charge.

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Speaker 1: It was when Palace was peaking. Palace won that match

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Speaker 1: five to two. It was four to nothing at the

423
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Speaker 1: half hour mark. You can look through all the numbers,

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Speaker 1: you could say, oh, expected goles was maybe a little

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Speaker 1: bit closer than five two. All west Ham's chances came

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Speaker 1: after they were down four nothing. Palace completely dominated them

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Speaker 1: at home. And what's to say they don't do the

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Speaker 1: exact same thing here. The price is actually the same

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Speaker 1: from that five to win. They were plus one fifteen,

430
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Speaker 1: plus one, twenty in that range and now they're sitting

431
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Speaker 1: at the same price and I think we can sit

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Speaker 1: here today and say that west Ham hasn't gotten any

433
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Speaker 1: better defensively, so I think Palace is a lender valued

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Speaker 1: and I like them at plus one fifteen.

435
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 3: Well, I will quickly say Michael that I think it

436
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 3: looks like Anderson's going to Fulham out of the heart

437
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:08,400
Speaker 3: of the Palace defense. And obviously Newcastle is still sniffing

438
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:12,479
Speaker 3: around Mark Gayhey, so I suppose you can't be too

439
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 3: sure of his head's turning a little bit, So that's

440
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 3: a little off putting. I don't disagree with what BJ's saying,

441
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 3: but yeah, he's obviously a big player at the heart

442
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 3: of that kind of free center box at the butt there,

443
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 3: so something to consider.

444
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we'll see. We knew Palace coming into the

445
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:34,360
Speaker 4: new season would be a little inflated, but maybe they're

446
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 4: just like good bjye, and you'll be right here.

447
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 1: We'll see, hopefully we'll see.

448
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 4: I'll move on to Fulham and Leicester. A little disagreement here.

449
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 4: Fulham is odds on at home minus one twenty five,

450
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 4: Leicester City plus three twenty coming up the draw against

451
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 4: Spurs on Monday Night football, and the draws plus two eighty.

452
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 4: I I'm down on Fulham. I still just don't see

453
00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 4: it like them being good enough to get the separation

454
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 4: needed to justify these odds, like even at home. I

455
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 4: guess a Lester team that everyone's picking to go down,

456
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 4: but I think so much of that is just because

457
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 4: of the impending points deduction that's coming. But I just

458
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 4: trust Steve Cooper as a manager in being able to

459
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 4: adapt and be tough to beat and make it set

460
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 4: his teams up correctly for the situation that they're in,

461
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 4: which is, look, they're Leicester City, They're likely to go down.

462
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 4: I don't think he's just gonna throw caution to the

463
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:29,679
Speaker 4: win and try to go beat teams like he's going

464
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 4: to try to scrape out results, and I think Fulham

465
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 4: are susceptible to that kind of situation. I don't trust

466
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 4: them to score. So I like Lester Here as an underdog. Sam,

467
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 4: I know you're the one.

468
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 1: The other way.

469
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 4: The other thing is a revenge goalscorer Brett Bet if

470
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 4: you want to get in on it is Bobby Decord overread.

471
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 4: Anytime goal scorer should get a decent price there, going

472
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,959
Speaker 4: against his former former side. But I like Lester Here.

473
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 4: I just don't think Fulham's good enough to justify this

474
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 4: price even at home.

475
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, fair enough.

476
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 3: Just watching that Leicester Tottenham game, I don't think it

477
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 3: was a case of Leicester setting up well, rebuffing Tottenham

478
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 3: to Vanciers, maybe Cooper tactically outsmarting and pasta Cogle.

479
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 2: It was none of that.

480
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 3: It was simply Leicester and Tottenham being wasteful and Lester

481
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 3: they're getting a little bit lucky. Tottenham should have gone

482
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 3: into halftime at two nil and if they had this,

483
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 3: this would have got really ugly for Leicester and then

484
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 3: there's no way you'd be getting a minus one twenty

485
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 3: about Fulham out of home. Here twenty thirty minutes into

486
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 3: the game, the market had already reacted on on the

487
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 3: Fulham win price. Here they started going down. I think

488
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 3: they went down to minus one thirty maybe, so there

489
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 3: was money coming for Fulham and then Spurs just did

490
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 3: what Spurs did and yeah, ended up one one and

491
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 3: Lester got something from the game somehow. I'm looking at

492
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 3: this Leicester side and you've got a Jamie Vardy lacking

493
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 3: in match fitness leading that Leicester forward line. Mather deally

494
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 3: started on the bench, which was a shock. So I'd

495
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 3: a bet on Spurs, said, so I was licking my lips.

496
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 3: I was thinking Spurs will surely outscore them here they

497
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 3: have to, and hey, we are unlucky. I think it's

498
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 3: I think it's similar for me again for Fulham. I

499
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 3: just think looking at both teams, Fulham at home obviously

500
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 3: there are some issues throughout that that Leicester side, I

501
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 3: just think Fulham are gonna outscore them.

502
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 2: I'm just this.

503
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 3: This is more for me being keen to get to

504
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 3: side against Leicester in their current shape before they get

505
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,959
Speaker 3: reinforcements in and with the limited threat, I think they

506
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 3: might wield them forward areas and I think we can

507
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 3: do so at a pretty decent price.

508
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 2: I don't really mind that at all.

509
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 3: We just need Fulham to pack their shooting boots, unlike

510
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 3: Selankey and company. So that's why I sided with Fulham

511
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 3: at minus one twenty.

512
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're kind of going about it the same way

513
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 4: I want to take on Form you want to take

514
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 4: on Lester at two paces. So it's it's funny how

515
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 4: it spits out that way. All right, let's move on

516
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 4: Touthampton and not even forces. I don't know if this

517
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 4: one makes much sense to price is here BJ Southampton

518
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 4: at home a nominal favorite of plus one fifty on

519
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,640
Speaker 4: the three way line, Force traveling plus one seventy five.

520
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 4: The draw is plus two forty a draw for Force.

521
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 4: In that opening match against Bournemouth, I think, now we've

522
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 4: seen enough of Forest under NW know that I'm just

523
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 4: kind of impressed with them as a like, guess, just

524
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 4: a solid mid table side. And Southampton comes away with

525
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 4: a one nothing loss that looks on the surface kind

526
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 4: of respectable against Newcastle, But when you dig into it,

527
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 4: nothing that I saw from Southampton made me want to

528
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 4: bet them at this price and actually made me want

529
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 4: to go the other way. So I'm going to go

530
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 4: with Nuno here on the road.

531
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,479
Speaker 1: I agree. I think that this is kind of a

532
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: different situation for Southampton than what they were going to

533
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: approach against Newcastle. I mean, speaking of horrible refereeing decisions,

534
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 1: that red card against Fabian Shar, I mean, if you

535
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: want to say the game's gone, Sam, the game is

536
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 1: completely gone if that's a red card. Unbelievable. So Southampton

537
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 1: got to, you know, play up a man for what

538
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: sixty five minutes of that match, so they end up

539
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: creating two expected goals, you know, all well and good,

540
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: but I think it was interesting how they conceded their

541
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: goal right before halftime, because you know, the worry going

542
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: into it was they were going to turn the ball

543
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 1: over to Newcastle's press and with ten with Newcastle lamp

544
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 1: and ten men, that's exactly what they did. It was

545
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 1: a turnover, easy pass, Joelentton goal and then Newcastle was

546
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 1: able to sit back and keep them out. But the

547
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: core problem of Russell Martin and especially this match against

548
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest, who's going to play a lot more passively,

549
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 1: is you know, you can try and overload every phase

550
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 1: of build up and that's great, but you have to

551
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: be able to create something high quality off of it

552
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 1: once you get to the final third. And I'm not

553
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 1: sure so sure Southampton, especially in this match, with how

554
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 1: physical and how good Nottingham Forest is in their low

555
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 1: defensive block, I'm not sure they have the goal score

556
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 1: presence to actually threaten them. Adam Armstrong and Ben Barreton

557
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 1: are great Championship strikers, I think they're terrible Premier League strikers,

558
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 1: and especially in this match when they're gonna be facing

559
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 1: guys who are way bigger than them, and way more

560
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: physical Nottingham Forrest under Nuno he took over on December

561
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 1: twentieth to twenty twenty three. From that period on, they

562
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: are allowing one point three two non penalty expected goals

563
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. That is the fourth best mark in

564
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: the Premier League, behind only City, Liverpool and Arsenal. That's

565
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 1: how good they have been defensively. They've just been really

566
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 1: unlucky because they've well they've had bad goalkeeping play not

567
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 1: to sugarcoat it, so yes, that could do them in here,

568
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 1: but again I don't think Southampton has the goal scoring

569
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: threats to really punish them, and Nottingham Forest against teams

570
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: in the bottom half of the table since nuwas taken over,

571
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: are only allowing little over one expected goal per ninety minutes.

572
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 1: And we know Nottingham Forest is incredibly dangerous transition team.

573
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 1: They have ballcarriers and really good transition threats all over

574
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 1: the pitch, so I think that they should be road

575
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: for favorites here. And if you want to look at

576
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 1: it from a mathematical perspective, teams coming up from the

577
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 1: Championship to the Premier League see a minus one point

578
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:12,399
Speaker 1: one decrease in their expected goal differential per ninety minutes.

579
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: So Southampton, you know, as good as they were in

580
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: the Championship, they didn't also light the world on fire

581
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:19,959
Speaker 1: and you know, get close to a one expected gold

582
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 1: differential per ninety minutes. So they're going to be around,

583
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: you know, a minus point four minus point five type

584
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 1: of team. And Nottingham Forest UNDERNWN has been a positive

585
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: expected goal differential team. So even if you account for

586
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 1: home field advantage, Nottingham Forest still should be a favorite

587
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: here on the road. So I don't agree with the price.

588
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 1: I agree with you, Michael. I like Nottingham Forrest drawno

589
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: Bett at plus one ten.

590
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 2: You with us here, Sam, I think so.

591
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 3: In my head, I'm just thinking past for most of

592
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 3: these games, which is not what you really want a

593
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 3: on a betting podcast. That The thing that kind of

594
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 3: concerns me is I know they were against ten men

595
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 3: and I was so against Southampton in our season preview show.

596
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,719
Speaker 3: But I thought they played pretty well, Like I think

597
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 3: they knock the ball around pretty well, and I think

598
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 3: they probably like going on the underlying numbers, they should

599
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 3: have put a ten min Newcastle team to the sword.

600
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 3: But I think that's what Russell Martin's football will do

601
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 3: to you, will do to the eye test.

602
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 2: You have a look at it and think, you know what.

603
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 2: They're a pretty decent team.

604
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 3: They're good on the ball, they're largely pressed resistant, they

605
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 3: like to knock it around and get through the thirds.

606
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 3: But are they going to be clinical enough against this

607
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 3: notting and Forest team which should find the net once

608
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 3: or twice?

609
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 2: Maybe not.

610
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: BJ's made a great argument and I think Forrest should

611
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 3: probably be favorites just about. So therefore that suggests that

612
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 3: there is value on Nottingham Forest. If I was to

613
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 3: enter this game, it would probably be on the Asian

614
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 3: handicap line. But in terms of a bet for myself,

615
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 3: I've put down pass because I just wasn't too short.

616
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 3: I want to see another game with Southampton involved. Now

617
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 3: they're at home as well, so that would good.

618
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 2: See.

619
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 3: I just want to see another game eleven verse eleven

620
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 3: and just see Russell Martin ball as it should be.

621
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 3: So so yeah, it's just a pass. I just want

622
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 3: to take a watch him briefly.

623
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 4: Okay, it's the ten am Eastern time kickoffs wrapped, so

624
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 4: let's move to twelve thirty. I think you would call

625
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:17,239
Speaker 4: this the match of the weekend, Villa and Arsenal at

626
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 4: twelve thirty pm Eastern time, dinner time. Over there for

627
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 4: you Sam Villa plus three thirty three at home, Arsenal

628
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 4: traveling minus one thirty four the draws plus two eighty.

629
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 4: I think two sides that are looking to win games

630
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 4: in very different ways, and for me that's always good

631
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 4: news because it leads me to think the game could

632
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 4: just get really ugly.

633
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: Right.

634
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 4: You got one side you're just looking to keep things

635
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 4: tidy and in control on the ball, and Arsenal the

636
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 4: other side, and Villa trying to play a little more frenetic,

637
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 4: introducing chaos to the game. And when those contrasting styles meet,

638
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 4: think sometimes the game can struggle just to get going.

639
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 4: Like I think there's a longer feeling out process when

640
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 4: you have two teams, especially if they're both very good

641
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 4: going at it just from completely opposite ends of the spectrum.

642
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 4: I think think the nil nil is very live here

643
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 4: at twelve to one, like Arsenal is so stout defensively

644
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 4: and will want to just kill the game, and Villa

645
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 4: wants to do the exact opposite. So you're gonna have

646
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 4: one team just trying its best to get the ball

647
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 4: and keep it moving. The other team just trying to

648
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 4: take the thing out of the game for like sixty

649
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 4: seventy minutes before trying to win it. I don't know

650
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 4: if I'm crazy here because Villa like tends to not

651
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 4: go in this direction. But when you have two sides

652
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 4: just so different and they're good at what they do,

653
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 4: I think it becomes interesting. So I'm going to play

654
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 4: the nil nil a twelve to one. Sam. I don't

655
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: know what your thoughts are in this game at a whole.

656
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 4: As a whole that bet, but what do you got.

657
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 3: I think you are a little bit crazy, but I

658
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 3: kind of like it. It's fine, don't worry about that.

659
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 2: Well.

660
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 3: I thought BJ had a sneaky suspicion he might be

661
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 3: going for an Arsenal wins, so I just wanted to

662
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 3: offer up some resistance to the Arsenal fan on this podcast.

663
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: I'd like to put up the.

664
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 3: Austin Villa Asian Handicaps. So last season Villa was the

665
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 3: best team to back in the Asian handicap market in

666
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 3: the league, more profitable than any other side, especially when

667
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 3: playing at Villa Park, and they returned a healthy twenty

668
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 3: four point three percent ROI if back in each handicap

669
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 3: with a one unit stake. So if you think aston

670
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 3: Villa can score against Arsenal here at home, and bear

671
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 3: in mind they averaged about two point five to three

672
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 3: goes per nightly at home last season that's exactly the

673
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 3: same as Arsenal at the Emirates, then Arsenal will need

674
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 3: to score three goals at Villa Park for us to

675
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 3: lose all of our stake here if back in the

676
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 3: plus zero point seventy five ASI handicaps. So Villa did

677
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 3: the double over Arsenal last season, accounting for forty percent

678
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 3: of Arsenal's Premier League defeats. That was two out of

679
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: their five defeats. So in my mind, I'm not sure

680
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 3: whether and bj will probably screwed me. Whether I Amory

681
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 3: has Arteta's number a little bit, Oh he does. Yeah,

682
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 3: I don't, and he's a great coach, so you know,

683
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 3: I'm not. It's not the most outlinedis your claims. But

684
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 3: I think Arteta may be going into this game with

685
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 3: that in his mind as well, and I'm curious to

686
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 3: see whether he tries anything a little different to to

687
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 3: try and get the better of him. So that'd be

688
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 3: interesting to see. But Villa are the only side to

689
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 3: be Arsenal in the Premier League in twenty twenty four

690
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 3: after their two nail victory in April. Arsenal have won

691
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 3: seventeen out of nineteen games this calendar year. So to

692
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 3: be getting Villa at home plus zero point seventy five,

693
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 3: I know it's difficult to go against this Arsenal team

694
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 3: so good defensively, really impressive up top, got players that

695
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 3: will hurt you in an instant.

696
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 2: So I get that, but I thought there was there

697
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 2: was a bit of value on that for Villa.

698
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take my gunners and minus won twenty five.

699
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 1: Now Prices Rising projected them at minus one forty three

700
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 1: both meetings against aston Villa last season. The first meaning

701
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 1: again scored in the seventh minute and Villa kind of

702
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 1: sat back and Arsenal created, you know, close to two

703
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,479
Speaker 1: expected goals and just couldn't find the back of the net.

704
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 1: Kind of the same story. In the second meeting, they

705
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 1: completely dominated the first half, had a couple of golden chances,

706
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: the one that got saved off the line, and then

707
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 1: as the game went on, Villa kind of grew into it.

708
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 1: They got a couple of chances and they ended up

709
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 1: scoring twice. But over those two meetings, Arsenal combined for

710
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 1: over three expected goles and Villa didn't even get to

711
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 1: one and a half. So I think the underlying data,

712
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: Arsenal was the better team in both meetings and probably

713
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 1: should have won. But the thing in the second meeting

714
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 1: that I thought was was a lot better from Arsenal.

715
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,919
Speaker 1: You know, at that midway point, if you remember when

716
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 1: Villa won against Arsenal, they had recently just beat Manchester City,

717
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 1: because you know, with Unai Emory's high line compact four

718
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 1: to four two, it takes away the space in between

719
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 1: the lines and so it basically forces you to play

720
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: balls over the top and City and both Arsenal weren't

721
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 1: willing to do that against them. The second at meeting,

722
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 1: Arsenal was willing to do that. They played a lot

723
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 1: of balls in behind and they actually had a lot

724
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 1: of success doing that. So the one thing that's worrying

725
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 1: about Aston Villa from last season, not only they overperformed

726
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 1: their underlying metrics, but they were a really bad defensive

727
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 1: team against good offensive teams. Against the top eight offensive

728
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 1: teams by expected goals, Aston Villa conceded one point eighty

729
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: four expected per goals per ninety minutes, and overall for

730
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,760
Speaker 1: the season they were nineteenth and big scoring chants allowed,

731
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: with a lot of those big scoring chances allowed to

732
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 1: those top eight defensive top eight offensive teams. So I

733
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 1: think Arsenal is going to be able to control this

734
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 1: match both in possession and both out of possession. I

735
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: kind of worry about Oana in this match. You know,

736
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 1: Douglas Louise was so important to Aston Villa's build up

737
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: in terms of his ability to as the guy dropping

738
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 1: deep in the double pivot. Oanna's obviously got crazy potential

739
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 1: and I think he could be just as good as Louise,

740
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 1: maybe in some time. But in the second match in

741
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: a new system, facing the best out of possession team

742
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: in the world is a little worrying. So I like Arsenal.

743
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 1: I think there's a little bit of value on them.

744
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 1: The price is rising though, so I wouldn't play Arsenal

745
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 1: anything north of minus one twenty five, which is kind

746
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 1: of interesting, so but we'll see. But yeah, I like

747
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 1: Arsenal minus one twenty five.

748
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 4: Villa did play three nil nils last year across all

749
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 4: competitions by the way I X Chelsea and ever did.

750
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 4: All right, we'll flip it to Sunday. Some good kickoffs

751
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 4: on Sunday this weekend. But before we get there, just

752
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 4: a reminder that wonder goal is proudly presented by Bet

753
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,520
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754
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755
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756
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758
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760
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761
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 4: three six five. It must be twenty one or older

762
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:55,800
Speaker 4: and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio,

763
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 4: and North Carolina, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

764
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 4: And if you or anyone you know has a game problem,

765
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 4: once helped, he's called one eight hundred gambler or one

766
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 4: eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Condiction, conditions and

767
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 4: restrictions apply. All right, BJA, You're you're alone on this

768
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 4: one too. This is a classic. No matter what team,

769
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 4: what bet I would make. I feel like in this

770
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 4: match between Bournemuth and Newcastle.

771
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 2: It would lose.

772
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,439
Speaker 4: I've got no feel for it. At the prices bourn

773
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 4: Myth plus two hundred, Newcastle plus one twenty, the draws

774
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 4: plus two eighty, I would like to have been able

775
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 4: to bet bourn Myth here, but the price just isn't

776
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 4: good enough. They are getting a ton that maybe the

777
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 4: everyone who bets soccer is listening to our preseason previews,

778
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 4: it was like, yeah, I like this warn Myth team too.

779
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 1: I don't hate a bet on Bournemouth. If you're going

780
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 1: to take them, I'd just go straight up on the

781
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 1: money line. I wouldn't try to play like a high

782
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 1: price on you know, plus half a goal, which is

783
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 1: you know, we're sitting at Newcastle plus one twenty and

784
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: the plus a half on Bournemouth is sitting around minus

785
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,399
Speaker 1: one forty five, which is kind of a high priced pace.

786
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 1: So I projected Newcastle at plus one forty. It's gonna

787
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:57,799
Speaker 1: be a barren defense for Newcastle on Saturday. Fabian shar

788
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: is suspended. Sales is injured, Boltmann's injured Lewis excuse me,

789
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 1: Lewis Hall or Lewis Miley. I can't remember which one

790
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 1: is also injured for this match, so it's going to

791
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 1: be some type of makeshift back line, which is kind

792
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: of concerning for Bournemouth. We'll see if Evan Nilsen gets

793
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 1: his first start here for Bournemouth. If he does, I

794
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: think that obviously favors Bournemouth. But I think the more

795
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 1: interesting aspect of this game is these are two teams that,

796
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: in my opinion, are in the top five or six

797
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 1: in terms of out of possession, pressing causing other teams problems.

798
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 1: Bournemouth is a decent build up team. Newcastle just wants

799
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 1: to play direct all the time, so it'll be interesting

800
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 1: to see who controls more possession, who tries to control

801
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 1: the ball more. When reality is both these teams are

802
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,839
Speaker 1: just way better in transition. It could create a very

803
00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: back and forth type of game which would favor high scoring,

804
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 1: fair potentially even and over. But the total is priced

805
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 1: pretty high here, So for me, if I was going

806
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 1: to bet anything, I think because of Newcastle being barren

807
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 1: across their back line, I think that there is a

808
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 1: decent amount of value here on Bournemouth if even Nilsen starts.

809
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,879
Speaker 1: But again, I think this is just an interesting match

810
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 1: to see who wants to control the ball more, because

811
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 1: I don't think it's advantageous for either team to control

812
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 1: fifty percent of the ball here. I think it's advantageous

813
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: for both teams to look to press high, cause those

814
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: problems and play in transition. So I'm probably going to

815
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 1: pass unless we see some steam here on Newcastle. But

816
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 1: if I were to play anything, I think Bournemuth money

817
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 1: line has a decent amount of value.

818
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 4: Okay, now that brings us to a relegation six point

819
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 4: or Wolves and Chelsea both being propped up by everdet

820
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 4: in Ipswich Wolverhampton at home plus three fifty Chelsea's minus

821
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,840
Speaker 4: one thirty eighth draws plus three hundred. At first glance,

822
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 4: I thought the price is of being enough on Wolves,

823
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 4: and the more and more I think about it, the

824
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 4: more and more I like it. Just it seems like

825
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 4: this Chelsea team is I maybe I overstated or over

826
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 4: estimated just how much talent can make up for it

827
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 4: just seems like a mess. SAM like it. I think

828
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,359
Speaker 4: you have to take that stuff into account, especially early

829
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 4: on in the season, with the transfer window not closed yet,

830
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 4: it really does seem like nobody understands what the vision

831
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 4: is here. And when you're playing a plucky team on

832
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 4: the road like Wolves. Good manager, a guy who knows

833
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 4: how to beat big size. He did it all last year,

834
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 4: especially in the early early going. Gary O'Neil, This Wolve's

835
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 4: price starts to speak to me a little bit more.

836
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 3: What is going on at Chelsea?

837
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 4: You've never seen anything like it.

838
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 2: Outrage honestly outrageous.

839
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 3: You've got cheerwoh and Sterling being forced out, Gallagher's gone, Challiburn,

840
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 3: Chickumenka two. They're on the cusps that Chelsea want them gone.

841
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 3: It's it's not good. You can only imagine what the

842
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 3: squad harmony is like in that rather large dressing room.

843
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 3: And I've been in changing rooms before, obviously nowhere near

844
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 3: this level. But when you've got people that aren't playing,

845
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:08,240
Speaker 3: when you've got players where the manager's rubbing up, rubbing

846
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 3: them up the wrong way, when you've got players sulking,

847
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:12,919
Speaker 3: et cetera, and not giving off a good vibe, being

848
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 3: half arsed in training, it rubs off on others and

849
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 3: it's really not good. For the harmony of the dressing room.

850
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 3: Sterling's one of the older heads in that team who

851
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 3: have good friends in the squad, obviously, and now he's

852
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 3: training away from the first team with a younger lads.

853
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 3: It's not the best recipe for a new coach and

854
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 3: a new division who's trying to get a handle on

855
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 3: this rather bloated squad, that's for sure. So there's a

856
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 3: lot going on at Cobbam. Now they go away to

857
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 3: Wolves as minus one thirty nine favorites. I don't think

858
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 3: I'm having that. I can see why the Wolves Asian

859
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 3: line will appeal to people. That's a plus zero point

860
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 3: seventy five at minus one oh five on betrix is five.

861
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 3: The concern for me and backing against Chelsea this season

862
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 3: is that I do think they come good eventually, like

863
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 3: they did last season under Potch, there will be a

864
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:08,879
Speaker 3: time where we see team team cohesion, where we see

865
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 3: relationships on the pitch forming and being effective. They will

866
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 3: come a point where this leads to consistent performances as

867
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,479
Speaker 3: a whole. I'm pretty sure, but I don't think that'll

868
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 3: be soon. But I do think we're going to see

869
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 3: the odd game where they are convincing and we sit

870
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 3: up and take note because they have that individual quality.

871
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,240
Speaker 3: Like you said, Michael, that's my concern and getting against

872
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 3: them because I feel like we will see that in

873
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:34,879
Speaker 3: the odd game. However, and said this on the Better

874
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 3: Expert podcast this morning, if you're going to bet against Chelsea,

875
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 3: it feels like this is the time to do it.

876
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 3: Side against them whilst they're a little undercooked, whilst Morescue's

877
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 3: dealing with all the nonsense that's raining down on him

878
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 3: from above in terms of ridden big characters from his

879
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 3: squad to comply with PSR, and I think the new

880
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:57,920
Speaker 3: idea is and get people in on reduced wages, longer contracts,

881
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 3: and get those with who's earning the big bugs get

882
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 3: them out of the squad. So really, the powers that be,

883
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 3: they're just looking at this on a spreadsheet pretty much.

884
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 3: They're not really taking into account what these decisions are

885
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: going to do this to the squad and whether Maressa

886
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 3: is going to be able to handle that. So if

887
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 3: we do see a bad run from Moresca, I'm pretty

888
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,240
Speaker 3: sure the owners are just going to be like, what's

889
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:25,360
Speaker 3: going on here? Why you know, where's the results? Where's

890
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:27,879
Speaker 3: the positive results, and I won't be surprised if they

891
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 3: suck them in ten fifteen games.

892
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 2: It's just a shambles.

893
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 3: Really, But yeah, anyway, for me, there's enough to suggest

894
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 3: that this Wolve's Asian handicap.

895
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 2: It's worth a tickle.

896
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:40,280
Speaker 3: If Wolves score like we said with Villa, then Chelsea

897
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 3: need to get free away goes away from home for

898
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:46,240
Speaker 3: us to lose the full state. So Wolves are actually

899
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 3: the second best side to back in terms of Asian

900
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 3: handicap betting in the Premier League last term, behind Villa.

901
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 3: Wolves won twenty point five thirty eight Asian handicaps. So

902
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 3: looking at them against Arsenal, they were fully in the

903
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 3: game at Neil Neil, they were still in the game

904
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 3: at one nil down. They didn't play like fourteen to

905
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 3: one underdogs, and I can hazard a guess that they

906
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 3: won't feel like the minus three fifty underdogs. Here they

907
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,880
Speaker 3: looked right down the left hand side with Rodrigo Gomez.

908
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 3: It looks like they've just cloned Pedro Netto before letting

909
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 3: him go to Chelsea. And I like the look of

910
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 3: Musquerra at the back, center back who had pinned has

911
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 3: it Averts down by his neck. So I really like

912
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 3: players that play on the edge, like a Diego Costa

913
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:31,840
Speaker 3: type player. So it's good to see another one of

914
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 3: them in the Premier League. And those two, yeah, they're

915
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:36,280
Speaker 3: going to help fill the void of Kilmen and Netto,

916
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:40,920
Speaker 3: which Wolve supporters are probably rightly concerned about. So at

917
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 3: the prices, I'm really not that interested in taking on Chelsea.

918
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,359
Speaker 3: So our foot Wolves plus zero point seventy five at

919
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,280
Speaker 3: home after Garry o'neils had his first full pre season

920
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 3: with his Wolves team, and yeah, I like the thinking

921
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 3: of that all right.

922
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 4: Then that brings us to the last matcha match Week

923
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 4: two for the Premier League, which is Liverpool hosting Brentford.

924
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 4: Liverpool minus four hundred off their win at Ipswich Town,

925
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 4: Brentford a double digit underdog at ten to one. The

926
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:13,720
Speaker 4: draw here is plus five hundred. Really impressed with Brentford

927
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 4: BJ in that win over Palace. We talked about it

928
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 4: in the lead up to the season. There was a

929
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 4: lot of noise in there. Disappointing season last year that

930
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 4: maybe threw some people off, including ourselves I think at

931
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 4: times last season from thinking that this is the normal

932
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 4: Thomas Frank Brentford team solid, good against the bigger clubs.

933
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:41,479
Speaker 4: I always feel comfortable like there are just some teams

934
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 4: that you feel comfortable backing and do you trust them

935
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 4: with your money. Brentford will always be that team under

936
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 4: Thomas Frank. For me, I think even as a big

937
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 4: underdog like this is a huge pressure spot for the

938
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 4: new manager at Liverpool. Right first home game. They were

939
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 4: good in that second half, but it took them some

940
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 4: time to get going and against Ipswich, I want to

941
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 4: say huge step up, but it is a step up

942
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 4: in competition here against a really savvy opponent. I like

943
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 4: Brentford here when we play the money line, I know

944
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:11,839
Speaker 4: that most people, if you are backing Brentford, will look

945
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 4: to take on the handicap, which you're gonna suggest, but

946
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 4: it's these odds seem too wide given what we've seen

947
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 4: from Brentford already in just one match, what we know

948
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 4: about Brentford under Frank, and the fact that this this

949
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 4: is a heaps heaps heaps of pressure situation for Arnie

950
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 4: Slot and Liverpool.

951
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 1: I was thinking back, Michael, since the inception of this podcast,

952
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 1: have we ever not taken Brentford in this match? No?

953
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:38,840
Speaker 4: This is this is I think we did set it

954
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 4: and forget it match.

955
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, set it and forget it type of thing. Yeah,

956
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 1: I think two's a little high in terms of a

957
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 1: spread here would I think Liverpool should be closer to

958
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 1: minus one and a half. You know, like I mentioned

959
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:53,959
Speaker 1: with Ipswich, you know, Liverpool was struggling for the first

960
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: forty five minutes because they weren't winning any duels and

961
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 1: along they weren't completing any long balls. And it wasn't

962
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 1: some type type of magical like tactical change that Arnie

963
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 1: Slot made. They just they started playing them regressively and

964
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 1: they started completing more long balls as if Switch was

965
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 1: wearing down. First half Liverpool completed forty two percent of

966
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,400
Speaker 1: the long balls, second half sixty three percent. And they

967
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 1: also won sixty four percent of their aerial duels, which

968
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 1: now you're going up against Brentford, who was scored the

969
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 1: most goals off a headers last season. They're a great

970
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 1: aerial threat. They're really really good defending in a low

971
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:30,399
Speaker 1: defensive block. They're not going to play like Ipswich did.

972
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 1: They're not just going to go man to man and I

973
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:34,239
Speaker 1: press you. They're going to slink back into their five

974
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 1: to three to two. They're going to deny space to

975
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,839
Speaker 1: the middle, and they're going to force Liverpool to beat

976
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 1: them with crosses or to beat them through the middle,

977
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 1: which I'm not so sure Liverpool is going to be

978
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 1: able to consistently do and create high quality chances. The

979
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 1: thing with Brentford that while you can always just kind

980
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 1: of back them, not just because they're good in that

981
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 1: low block defensively, but they have a lot of speed

982
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 1: and a lot of threats in transition. You know, when

983
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,400
Speaker 1: they lost to Liverpool in the second meeting last season,

984
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 1: Brian and Buimo didn't play in that match. They were

985
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 1: starting Ivan Tony and Theilma Pi up top. Brian and

986
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 1: Boemu is their best player by far out of anybody.

987
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 1: He's such a good transition transition attacker. You saw that

988
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 1: scoring the first goal against Crystal Palace. He's going to

989
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 1: give Liverpool a lot of problems. And the other thing

990
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: about Brentford is they are one of the best set

991
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 1: piece teams in the Premier League and they've been like

992
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 1: that for such a long time. Last season created the

993
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 1: second most expected goals finally Everton off of set pieces.

994
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 1: Liverpool really wasn't that good of a set piece defense

995
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:43,160
Speaker 1: last season. Sixteenth. The next cheaper set piece allowed you

996
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 1: saw ips, which is best chance in the match come

997
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 1: off of a set piece. So Brentford's always going to

998
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 1: have advantages there against Liverpool. So I think Brentford is

999
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 1: definitely live here. They definitely have the defensive structure, they

1000
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: definitely have the transition pieces, and they definitely have an

1001
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 1: advantage on set pieces. So I think Liverpool is a

1002
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 1: little revalued here, but only projected Liverpool spread closer to

1003
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 1: minus one point four, So I like Brentford plus two

1004
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:13,800
Speaker 1: at minus one thirty.

1005
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:16,799
Speaker 4: It'll take some time, Sam, but eventually this kind of

1006
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 4: match we'll get you onside to.

1007
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 2: Be back in the beast.

1008
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 4: You'll be fully, fully immersed in the Thomas Frank experienced.

1009
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 4: But nothing for you as of.

1010
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:31,600
Speaker 3: Yet, No, not quite yet. The opening game for Liverpool,

1011
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 3: BJ mentioned it is typical game of two halfs, which

1012
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 3: turning up first half brimming the confidence, feeding off that adrenaline.

1013
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 3: They outshot Liverpool in terms of XG in the first half.

1014
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 3: That changed in the second half. Slot took off Yarrow Kwonzo,

1015
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 3: who he said wasn't winning his jewels, brought Knat on

1016
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 3: and then they turned the screw. They played more expansively,

1017
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:54,919
Speaker 3: used the whipth and then in the end ran away

1018
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 3: with it. They're class shone through and it was a

1019
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,480
Speaker 3: good debut for Slot, if not perfect coming into this fixture.

1020
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 3: I just don't like the prices. Brentford plus two is

1021
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:09,759
Speaker 3: semi appealing, but the price for me it's dwindling. I

1022
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 3: can see why you'd like it, even Tony will likely

1023
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 3: be missing again. Brentford coped without that against Palace at home,

1024
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 3: but this is obviously a different proposition.

1025
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 2: Of course, it's.

1026
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 3: An uphill battle without a main man up there, a

1027
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 3: real focal point, and it will be hard enough as

1028
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 3: it is at Anfield Liverpool at minus was it what.

1029
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 2: Are they minus four hundred? Yeah? Yeah, minus four hundred.

1030
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 3: It's it's too it's it's too big, it's too short,

1031
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 3: and the handicapper minus one point seventy five and the

1032
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 3: goal liner over under three point five. Nothing to appeal

1033
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:43,879
Speaker 3: in there. Maybe both teams scoring over two point five

1034
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 3: goals that's at minus one twenty, but that also doesn't

1035
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 3: excite me too much, so I'll pass.

1036
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:53,960
Speaker 4: Okay, that's the premierly wrapped up, we'll move on to

1037
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 4: Europe and talk a little Championship as well. Here bj

1038
00:50:57,719 --> 00:51:03,439
Speaker 4: this will be for you La Liga six and they're hoping, yeah,

1039
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 4: this is this is the La League we've grown to

1040
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 4: love and low anything in Spain for you.

1041
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:12,919
Speaker 1: Well, you know, along those Robin, let's just take let's

1042
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:17,359
Speaker 1: just take an over right lifelines uh sevia Viral over

1043
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:20,400
Speaker 1: two and a half at minus one twenty two of

1044
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 1: the worst defensive teams in terms of expected goals last season,

1045
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 1: both in the bottom of five, both teams good in transition,

1046
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,560
Speaker 1: both teams can't defend in transition, and via Real also

1047
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 1: should have a pretty good advantage here. One of the

1048
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 1: best set piece teams in La Liga second and x

1049
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:37,359
Speaker 1: two per set piece, while Sevilla was dead last, and

1050
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:40,600
Speaker 1: that defensively, so you know, projected well north of three

1051
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:44,240
Speaker 1: goals both meetings. The first meeting had three expected goals.

1052
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:46,399
Speaker 1: The second meeting between these two had four point eight

1053
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 1: expected goals. So I think over two and a half

1054
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:52,239
Speaker 1: minus one twenty is a tad short. I like that there. Bundesliga,

1055
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:55,280
Speaker 1: let's kick things off Friday levercust and minus one plus

1056
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:58,520
Speaker 1: one O five against Glodbach. They did it again, Michael.

1057
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 1: In the German Super Cup. They were down demand for

1058
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:05,880
Speaker 1: sixty odd minutes or so. Against Stuttgart, Patrick Schick comes

1059
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 1: on eighty eighth minute equalizer. They went on penalties. It's

1060
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 1: just never gonna stop. But here's what I will say

1061
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:13,719
Speaker 1: about Leverkusen. Are they going to get double digit, you know,

1062
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 1: stoppage time equalizers and winners this year. Probably not, But

1063
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 1: the underlying data on them is still really really good

1064
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 1: plus one point twenty seven expected gold differential per ninety

1065
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 1: minutes in the Bundesliga last season. Shabi Alonso, for my money,

1066
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 1: is one of the best tactical managers in the entire world.

1067
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 1: They're so difficult to play against. If you either have

1068
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 1: to sit in a low defensive block just cond delay

1069
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:39,360
Speaker 1: the inevitable and hope that Leverkusen doesn't score, or you

1070
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 1: have to do what Atolanta did to them in the

1071
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,520
Speaker 1: Europa League final, which is just intensely pressed them man

1072
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 1: to man. But not every team is Audolance out of possession.

1073
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 1: Not every team can do that, and Gladbach definitely can't

1074
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 1: do that because they were terrible defensively last season. Leverkusen

1075
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:55,399
Speaker 1: combined xg in the two meetings against Claudebach last year

1076
00:52:56,120 --> 00:53:02,239
Speaker 1: four point eight to point six. They completely annihilated them

1077
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: in both meetings, so I think they're gonna do that

1078
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 1: again here. So minus one plus one oh five open

1079
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 1: things up in the Bundesliga and then Syria A, Fiorentina,

1080
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 1: Vanetsia under two and a half at even money. Palladino

1081
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 1: comes in at Fiorentina while Vincenzo Taliana moves on to Bologna.

1082
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 1: Things don't really change though. At Fiorentina. You know they

1083
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:21,440
Speaker 1: in terms of like ball progression last year. I've spoke

1084
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 1: about them a lot, but they were really good at

1085
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:26,000
Speaker 1: building through the first two or three phases of build

1086
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 1: up and then once they reached the final third, that's

1087
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:30,840
Speaker 1: where things tend to fall apart, and that happened in

1088
00:53:30,840 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 1: their first match against Parma. Two shots with an next

1089
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 1: year rating over point one. They took a ton of shots,

1090
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:37,960
Speaker 1: just a ton of low quality ones, and they're going

1091
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:39,799
Speaker 1: to continue to do that. Vanetsia was a very good

1092
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 1: defensive team in the second Division of Italy last season,

1093
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 1: so I think that total is a little too high.

1094
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:50,160
Speaker 1: So under two and a half in Fiorentina and Vanetzia.

1095
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:53,799
Speaker 4: Okay, that's Europe let's go back to England now into

1096
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 4: the Championship. A couple of plays here, Sam, we'll start

1097
00:53:57,239 --> 00:53:57,480
Speaker 4: with you.

1098
00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:01,399
Speaker 3: So yes, Blackburn versus Oxford over two point seventy five

1099
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:04,320
Speaker 3: goals and both Blackburn Rovers and the new boys Oxford

1100
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:08,439
Speaker 3: denied they've approached the new Championship season with a fearlessness

1101
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:11,240
Speaker 3: in front of go The wave that the newly promoted

1102
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:14,319
Speaker 3: club is riding in Oxford is a dangerous one for

1103
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:16,839
Speaker 3: any side they're going to come up against right now.

1104
00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 3: And I can imagine Fuel enjoy playing against Oxford in

1105
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 3: the opening months and not many would have expected this

1106
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:26,359
Speaker 3: start from the home team in Blackburn. They were looking

1107
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:29,400
Speaker 3: awfully light in forward areas before, like a seventy two

1108
00:54:29,440 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 3: hour period in the transfer market where they seem to

1109
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 3: buy about eight strikers and now Rovers' new look attack

1110
00:54:36,200 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 3: are only pipped by Burnley, who scored nine in the

1111
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:43,359
Speaker 3: goals scored stakes after two matches. Ohashi has come over

1112
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 3: from Japan. Look fantastic. Andreas watt Weiman has a start

1113
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 3: to life in Lancashire that he'd have dreamed of when

1114
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:52,360
Speaker 3: he signed. So all in all quite positive for Blackburn

1115
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:56,279
Speaker 3: and Oxford too. But it hasn't looked overly assured defensively,

1116
00:54:56,719 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 3: and either side sitting in the top ten for expected

1117
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:02,440
Speaker 3: goals against after the two championship matches. Obviously a small

1118
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:05,280
Speaker 3: sample size, but from the eye test, from everything I've scene,

1119
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:07,920
Speaker 3: if there were two teams in the second tier to

1120
00:55:07,960 --> 00:55:10,959
Speaker 3: pit against one another to encourage a high scoring game,

1121
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:13,319
Speaker 3: I think this pair would edge it. I think I'd

1122
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 3: pick these two out of the twenty four. So I've

1123
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 3: got this down as over under around three point zero

1124
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 3: go line. So for this to open up two point five,

1125
00:55:22,640 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 3: it was something I had to play.

1126
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 4: And of course congrats to you in Wayne Rooney and

1127
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,400
Speaker 4: Plymouth urg guyal forgetting your first points on the board

1128
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:34,120
Speaker 4: to the new season. BJ anything for the championship, Well.

1129
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:35,799
Speaker 1: I kind of like Plymouth this weekend, but I didn't

1130
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:38,239
Speaker 1: want to, you know, for I don't know ab. I mean,

1131
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,279
Speaker 1: that's a high price on QPR there Sam, but I'll

1132
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 1: go somewhere else. How about one of the new boys,

1133
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 1: Darby County back in the Championship plus half of all

1134
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 1: at Watford on the weekend. You know, Darby had a

1135
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 1: good result against Middlesbrough. They created a big created a

1136
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:54,279
Speaker 1: big chance and then held them out for the rest

1137
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 1: of the match and in their second match. They were

1138
00:55:56,640 --> 00:55:59,400
Speaker 1: really good in League One last season had a plus

1139
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 1: point seven to extraly differential per ninety minutes. Teams coming up.

1140
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:05,680
Speaker 1: You know, the barrier to entry from League One to

1141
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:08,759
Speaker 1: the Championship is not as severe as you know, Championship,

1142
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 1: the Premier League or a lot of other leagues around

1143
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 1: the world. Teams see about aer point seven decrease in

1144
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:20,400
Speaker 1: their actually differential per ninety going from League One to

1145
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 1: the Championship. So with Darby County being you know, like

1146
00:56:24,040 --> 00:56:26,080
Speaker 1: I said, point seven two, they should be around and

1147
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 1: even expectable to differential team projected in the Championship. Watford

1148
00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 1: last season was exactly that. They were just right bear

1149
00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:37,200
Speaker 1: even throughout the entire year. They lost one of their

1150
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:41,240
Speaker 1: most important players, Ishmael Kone to Marseille. Haven't really brought

1151
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 1: anybody in significantly to replace him. They've been good in

1152
00:56:44,920 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 1: their first two matches Watford has. But from a just

1153
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 1: a data perspective, I think this match should be a

1154
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:53,560
Speaker 1: lot closer to a pick them or even Watford maybe

1155
00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 1: closer to plus one twenty giving them home field advantage.

1156
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 1: So I like Darby County plus a half at minus

1157
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 1: one ten us on.

1158
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:04,400
Speaker 4: To our underdog parlay three Premier League sides featuring this

1159
00:57:04,520 --> 00:57:06,719
Speaker 4: week one hundred and thirty one to one. It comes

1160
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:08,600
Speaker 4: out to Sam, you can get us started.

1161
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:11,480
Speaker 2: So I'm will for Wolves plus three fifty.

1162
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 3: There's a lot going on at Chelsea right now, and

1163
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 3: certainly not all good. Now they go away to Wolves

1164
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 3: as minus one thirty nine favorites, there'll be people fancying

1165
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 3: the home side this weekend at plus three fifty, and

1166
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 3: I can see why as Maresca attempts to get a

1167
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 3: handle on this talented but bloated squad. Perhaps the best

1168
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 3: time to back against Chelsea this season is nearer the

1169
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 3: beginning of the campaign, when there's a lack of cohesion

1170
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:37,360
Speaker 3: and understanding on the pitch and within the ranks in general.

1171
00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 3: It might be a bit of a scrap for Wolves

1172
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:41,280
Speaker 3: to get three points over the line, but they'll be

1173
00:57:41,320 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 3: well drilled in their opening home game after Gary Oknow's

1174
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 3: first full pre season at the club, and I would

1175
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:49,120
Speaker 3: expect them to carve a chancel two against this new

1176
00:57:49,120 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 3: look Chelsea outfit under new management.

1177
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I fully endorse that one, and the more and

1178
00:57:53,920 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 4: more I think about it. The more and more I

1179
00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 4: hear you talk about it, I like it more. I

1180
00:57:57,920 --> 00:57:59,680
Speaker 4: was designing between Brentford and Lester. I'm gonna go with

1181
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:01,960
Speaker 4: Lester here, played a little bit closer to the vest here,

1182
00:58:02,000 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 4: maybe get us up uff and running. I just don't

1183
00:58:04,640 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 4: think Fulham is good enough to warrant these odds. I

1184
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 4: know there's so many there's a lot of concerns with

1185
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 4: Lester City going into the season, but I too trust

1186
00:58:12,080 --> 00:58:14,439
Speaker 4: Steve Cooper, especially against the side that I just don't

1187
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:17,080
Speaker 4: think that the gap is as wide as these odds suggest.

1188
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 2: BJ.

1189
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 1: What about you, well, I'm not going to play close

1190
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 1: to the vest. Michael Everton's six to one on the

1191
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:26,920
Speaker 1: road at Tottenham. The underlying data last season showed that

1192
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 1: the gap between these team two teams wasn't really that large.

1193
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 1: Tott him at a plus four point he'd expected goal differential,

1194
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 1: Everton was at minus one point two. Even in the

1195
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:37,240
Speaker 1: two meetings that they faced off against each other, Everton

1196
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:39,800
Speaker 1: won the expected goals battle in both meetings, and in fact,

1197
00:58:40,040 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 1: over the course of two matches created well over for

1198
00:58:42,880 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 1: expected goals. It's because, especially in that second match, they

1199
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 1: have a massive advantage on set pieces. We've seen Tottenham

1200
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 1: under anche post Koglu struggle defending them seventeenth to next

1201
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:56,320
Speaker 1: two percent piece allowed last year, whereas Everton created the

1202
00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 1: most expected goals off of set pieces and created over

1203
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 1: two expected goals purely off of corners in that second meeting.

1204
00:59:02,160 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 1: Everton's a good transition team, which is something that Tottenham

1205
00:59:05,200 --> 00:59:08,680
Speaker 1: really struggles with, especially defending those wide areas. So I

1206
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:12,080
Speaker 1: think Everton is very live considering that the underlying data

1207
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 1: suggests they maybe should have won both matches against Tottenham

1208
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:17,720
Speaker 1: last season. So I like the Toffees at six to one.

1209
00:59:18,320 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 4: There you go, Everton. Leicster Wolves comes out one hundred

1210
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:26,120
Speaker 4: and thirty one to one. Okay. On to our last

1211
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 4: segment of the program. My favorite bets for the Premier

1212
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:32,600
Speaker 4: League match Week two, DJ, what's your favorite bet?

1213
00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:36,560
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forrest drawn No. Bett plus one ten against Southampton.

1214
00:59:36,760 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 1: You know, Southampton was playing up a man for about

1215
00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 1: sixty five minutes against Newcastle and of course they looked great.

1216
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:44,800
Speaker 1: They were moving the ball well, created close to two

1217
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 1: expected goals. But this is going to be a much

1218
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 1: different opponent. You know, Newcastle is a team like Supress High.

1219
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:51,720
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forrest is a team that's going to sit in

1220
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:54,240
Speaker 1: a low defensive block and they're going to make things very,

1221
00:59:54,280 --> 00:59:56,760
Speaker 1: very difficult for Southampton, who I'm not sure really has

1222
00:59:56,800 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 1: the physicality or the strikers to actually threaten Nottingham. Nottingham

1223
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 1: Force since Nuno has taken over, is only allowing one

1224
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:07,520
Speaker 1: point three to two non penalty expected goals per ninety minutes.

1225
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 1: That's the fourth best market in the Premier League, behind

1226
01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 1: only Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City, and in fact, since

1227
01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 1: new has taken over, they actually have a positive expected

1228
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:17,160
Speaker 1: goal differential as well. So this is a very very

1229
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:20,000
Speaker 1: good team that's just gone through a really bad period

1230
01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:23,720
Speaker 1: of unluckiness for lack of a better term, Whereas Southampton

1231
01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 1: is a very vulnerable team in transition. So if Nottingam

1232
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 1: Force is able to win the ball, which they should

1233
01:00:28,040 --> 01:00:30,040
Speaker 1: be able to in their own final third, they're going

1234
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:33,040
Speaker 1: to have a lot of transition opportunities against Southampton here,

1235
01:00:33,080 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 1: and I think they should be a road favorite rather

1236
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:37,400
Speaker 1: than a road underdogs. So I like Nottingham Forest Drono

1237
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:39,320
Speaker 1: bet at plus one ten all season long.

1238
01:00:39,400 --> 01:00:42,960
Speaker 4: Last year we talked about the defensive deficiencies of Manchester

1239
01:00:43,080 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 4: United and one team that I would not want to

1240
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:47,280
Speaker 4: face while I'm trying to sort through those issues is

1241
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:50,160
Speaker 4: brightened after what we saw in match week one from

1242
01:00:50,240 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 4: the Seagulls on the road. I think Brighton is well

1243
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 4: worth a bet here at plus one fifty. I think

1244
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 4: they give United plenty to think about in their own

1245
01:00:57,240 --> 01:01:00,840
Speaker 4: half and should run away. I was close to making

1246
01:01:00,840 --> 01:01:02,919
Speaker 4: my best bet the Neil nil and Villain Arsenal sad,

1247
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 4: but I'm going to make it bright in here. What

1248
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:05,200
Speaker 4: about you?

1249
01:01:05,520 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 2: Well?

1250
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 3: Although Michael keeps talking down my best bet of the week,

1251
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:12,160
Speaker 3: I'm going for Fulham minus one twenty. This is more

1252
01:01:12,680 --> 01:01:15,840
Speaker 3: getting against Leicester than getting Fulham on side. I can

1253
01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 3: see the visitors struggling to create more than Fulham away

1254
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:24,680
Speaker 3: at the cottage. The underlying figure from Leicester's opening game

1255
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 3: against Spurs will suggest it was a fairly even showing

1256
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 3: on the expected ghostakes, but the eye test will have

1257
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 3: told you a very different story. Spurs were wasteful when

1258
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 3: it should have been out of sight by halftime. If

1259
01:01:35,600 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 3: Lester arrived in a similar fashion and be as easy

1260
01:01:38,680 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 3: to play through as Leicester ware against Spurs and this,

1261
01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:44,640
Speaker 3: I think this Fulham side can take advantage at minus

1262
01:01:44,640 --> 01:01:47,120
Speaker 3: one twenty, which I think is an attractive enough price

1263
01:01:47,200 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 3: at home for me. Marco Silver's men won nine out

1264
01:01:50,320 --> 01:01:52,880
Speaker 3: or nineteen games at home last season and returned the

1265
01:01:53,040 --> 01:01:55,920
Speaker 3: third highest ROI in the one x two market in

1266
01:01:55,960 --> 01:01:58,720
Speaker 3: the Premier League. If placing a one unit stake on

1267
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 3: or home games, I'll like the look of them here.

1268
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 4: All right. That does it for match week two. We'll

1269
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 4: be back again next week to get ahead of match

1270
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 4: week three and then a nice little international break after

1271
01:02:08,240 --> 01:02:10,640
Speaker 4: all the soccer that we played to get things started

1272
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 4: in the Premier League. So for BJ and sam, our

1273
01:02:13,280 --> 01:02:16,440
Speaker 4: sponsors Bet three six five, and our producers Noah and

1274
01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:18,120
Speaker 4: Matt and Dave on the back end, thank you so

1275
01:02:18,200 --> 01:02:19,800
Speaker 4: much for listening. We'll see you again in a week.

1276
01:02:27,800 --> 01:02:31,240
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1277
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:34,480
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1278
01:02:34,760 --> 01:02:37,360
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1279
01:02:37,480 --> 01:02:38,280
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