1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordert. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 10 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:37,160 Speaker 3: So here's the laces. 11 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 2: This morning, the National Economic Council Director Kevin hasse It 12 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 2: reiterating concerns about Mission creep and the Federal Reserve. The 13 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary skill best in writing in the Wall Street 14 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 2: Journal quote the FED new operating model is effectively a 15 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: gain of function monetary policy experiment, over use of non 16 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 2: standard policies, mission creep and institutional bloat. The Fed must 17 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 2: change course. John us now to discuss Ana Xander, the 18 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 2: Chief Economic strategistic Melk and Stanley Wealth Management, and in 19 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 2: good morning. It's good to seeing It's start there. I 20 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 2: know you've read the article what did you make of that, 21 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 2: What would you take away? 22 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 4: Yes, I think mission creep is one way to redirect 23 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 4: the focus on the FED. You know, Beson is the 24 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 4: only one to think that there is blowed at the FED, 25 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 4: that you've got three hundred PhD economists running around and 26 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:25,479 Speaker 4: maybe it's a little bit of an echo chamber. And 27 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 4: there have been concerns before this about mission creep, especially 28 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,479 Speaker 4: on the regulatory front. So the article reads like, Okay, 29 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 4: get rid of all of that, and then they can 30 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 4: focus more directly and solely on the setting of monetary policy. 31 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 4: That is not going to get the president what he wants, though, 32 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 4: and so but it does redirect the focus on other 33 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 4: changes that are needed at the FED. 34 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 2: It's a president of a bounce again. 35 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 5: What he wants anyway, I don't know. 36 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 4: I'm sure that you would like to get what he wants. 37 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 4: And that is an FMC that's tilted more toward his 38 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 4: understanding of what he believes monetary policy setting should look like. 39 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 4: And so you want to be really aggressive here because 40 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 4: if you're thinking about political affiliations on the FED and 41 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 4: especially the board governors, it tilts away from the president's 42 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 4: idea of the appropriate setting of monetary policy. 43 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: You feel that what John is talking about is it 44 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 1: sort of a be careful what you wish for. Isn't 45 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 1: the Fed potentially poised to cut rates but for the 46 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: wrong reasons because the economy is weakening enough to justify 47 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 1: the kind of rate regime that Trump has been touting. 48 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, so, yes, that is absolutely correct. 49 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 4: And the Fed's going to cut twenty five basis points 50 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 4: in September and it won't be enough. And then they're 51 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 4: going to cut twenty five basis points in the next 52 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 4: meeting and it won't be enough. It's not going to 53 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,799 Speaker 4: be enough to satisfy the president that wants immediate drastic 54 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 4: cuts in rates. But as a mindful, careful thinker looking 55 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 4: at the economy and what the economy needs, you cannot 56 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 4: sit on the FMC today and say rates need to 57 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 4: be drastically lower. They need to be lower, they're too tight, 58 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 4: especially when you've got a ethra of weakening data on 59 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 4: the labor market. It's not just the headline payrolls report. 60 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 4: So it's easy to look at these numbers and say, 61 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 4: we don't need to be as restrictive. We can make 62 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 4: some modest changes here, but one cut's. 63 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 5: Not going to be enough. Two is not going to 64 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 5: be enough, but. 65 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 4: More than a handful of cuts is going to be 66 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 4: too much, because we are set for some reacceleration next 67 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 4: year early in the year. 68 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: It's interesting that you say that because in bond markets, 69 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: people always look for what is that terminal rate, right 70 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 1: where do we end up in this cycle? And initially 71 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: for many months it was above three percent. Now we've 72 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: gone all below that actually for the end of next year. 73 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: And I wonder if you agree with that, if you 74 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: think that the bond market has it right. 75 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think the bond market is in a 76 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 4: difficult spot here because if you're just looking at the path, 77 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 4: the likely path of the economy, we've got a business 78 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 4: investment that is broadening out more so outside of tech 79 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 4: just tech. You've got a record high tax refund season 80 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 4: that's coming. And so you could say, okay, we can 81 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 4: adjust rates maybe tventy five basis points one hundred basis 82 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 4: points here over the next several meetings, but based on 83 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 4: just economic factors, you really shouldn't go further than that. 84 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 5: An economy that's set. 85 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 4: To reaccelerate next year, what the bomb market may be. 86 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 5: Pricing in is okay. Up to May. 87 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 4: We can probably be sure that the Fed is going 88 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:23,239 Speaker 4: to do what's right for the economy. After May, no idea, 89 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,919 Speaker 4: and the odds are lower than higher. 90 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 2: We'd love your guide for the rest of this week 91 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 2: before we talk about May next year payroll revisions one 92 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: CPI another PPI two. How are you in the team 93 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 2: thinking about those data points this week? 94 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 4: So the benchmark revisions, we can surmise that they are 95 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 4: going to be net downward. Now, those revisions just cover 96 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 4: through March of this year, but it's already a weaker 97 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 4: backdrop for the labor market. 98 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 5: Now you could look at. 99 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 4: That and say, okay, under Biden's economy, those are jobs 100 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:58,160 Speaker 4: that are going to be even weaker than before. It's 101 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 4: only a couple of months into Trump's presidency, but it 102 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 4: does set the trajectory lower at a time when we've 103 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 4: got changeover in staff at the BLS and it's going 104 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 4: to be all too easy to point fingers at that time. 105 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,720 Speaker 5: So you'll probably see some changes. 106 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 4: At the BLS this week as well that will further 107 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 4: raise the specter for can we trust this data? So 108 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 4: there's going to continue to be a lot of volatiley 109 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 4: around the data. The inflation data that's secondary for me 110 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 4: this week? 111 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 3: Is it really? 112 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 2: Yeah? Interesting? 113 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:28,839 Speaker 5: Yeah? 114 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 2: Do you not trust the data? 115 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 6: Oh? 116 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 4: No, oh no, I trust the data. I trust that 117 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 4: it's as good as it ever has been. We're trying 118 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 4: to measure a massive data set where you can change 119 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 4: the seasonal adjustment factor by point zero zero one percentage 120 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 4: points and it gives you an eighty thousand k difference 121 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 4: on payrolls. 122 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 5: So who's to say what's right and wrong? 123 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 2: Stay with us. Multiple IMPEX survanans coming up off to this. 124 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 2: Joining us now is Jim Bianco of Bienco Research. Jim, 125 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,160 Speaker 2: Welcome to the program. So we've got the highest yelds 126 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 2: in the UK since the late nineties. We saw that 127 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 2: in the last few weeks in Japan, record highs. The 128 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 2: good news is in the United States yolds have actually 129 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,280 Speaker 2: backed away from five percent on a thirty year at 130 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 2: the long end. But Jim, something has changed, and we'd 131 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 2: love your thoughts as to why you think things have changed. 132 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 3: Well, it depends on which country you're talking about. 133 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,280 Speaker 6: If you start with Japan, you know they calculate taxes 134 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 6: in their inflation rate, and if you take that out, 135 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 6: their inflation rate is the higher than the United States's 136 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 6: inflation rate for the first time in fifty years. 137 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:38,679 Speaker 3: They've got a real inflation problem. 138 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 6: They've also got a debt to GDP twice the US 139 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 6: the two hundred and twenty five percent. 140 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 3: So you've got a country that. 141 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 6: Borrows massively, has inflation, is talking about easing. Okay, that's 142 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 6: going to drive your yields straight up. And that's what's 143 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 6: been happening in Europe. They've got something similar to that. 144 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 6: They've got high, huge deficits, they've got huge deficits spending, 145 00:06:57,400 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 6: and they've got a loss of confidence. Just to take 146 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 6: France from example, their ten year yield is within ten 147 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,280 Speaker 6: basis points of Italy's ten year yield. France is never 148 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 6: traded in a higher yield than Italy, and they're just 149 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 6: a handful of basis points away from doing that. Who 150 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 6: would have ever thought that that, you know, the rocket 151 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 6: stability for Europe is Italy. Maybe that says a lot 152 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 6: about Europe that Italy is its rocket stability. 153 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: Maybe it says that Italy is just, you know, in 154 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: a better shape because more people like to visit Jim. 155 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: I mean, look, when you take a step back, there 156 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: are two schools of thought here. On one hand, you 157 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: could say yields hire in Japan, yields hire in France 158 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: heals higher, and Great Britain all lead to higher long 159 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: term yields and developed markets globally. There's another way of saying, actually, 160 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: this makes the US look even more like a haven. 161 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 1: It says people back to the United States, even though. 162 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 5: There are doubts about the US fiscal situation. Which side 163 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 5: do you line up on? 164 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 7: Oh? 165 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 3: I think that all the. 166 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 6: God developed world government bonds trade more or less in lockstep, 167 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 6: So if they're all going up, it's going to point 168 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 6: upward pressure on the US. And you could argue that 169 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 6: it has put somewhat up pressure in the US despite 170 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 6: whatever we think about falling inflation and everything in. 171 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 3: The US is going well. 172 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 6: We were at three point six percent on our ten 173 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:11,880 Speaker 6: year yield a year ago and now we're at four 174 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 6: point two four point or excuse me, four point one. 175 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 6: We were four point two on Friday, So we've also 176 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 6: got higher yields, just not as as high as those are. 177 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 6: And also there's also another warning sign too. All the 178 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 6: European markets are cutting rates and their long term yield 179 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 6: goes up. This idea that you hear in the marketplace, 180 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 6: cut rates and mortgage rates go down. 181 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 3: It's not a given. 182 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 6: It didn't work last year when the FED cut rates, 183 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 6: and it's not working in Europe cutting rates to push 184 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 6: how long term yields down. 185 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: This is only true though, if you do have a 186 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 1: FED that is biased to cut rates, even if inflation 187 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: isn't necessarily tame. It's not necessarily true if the FED 188 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: is cutting rates in the face of real economic weakness, 189 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 1: which is what a number of traders are starting to 190 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: price in, at least in. 191 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 5: The bond market on Friday. Where do you see things 192 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 5: shaking out? 193 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: Is this the FED that seems just bias to cut 194 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,559 Speaker 1: regardless of inflation or is this really a FED grappling 195 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 1: with a dramatically weakening backdrop in the United States? 196 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 3: I think it's a FED grappling. 197 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 6: At is July press conference in Jackson Hall, Chairman Paul 198 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 6: said that the labor supplying labor demand are both falling 199 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 6: in He used the. 200 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:18,959 Speaker 3: Word oddly in balance. 201 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 6: Now, what he means by that is kind of the 202 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 6: thing we don't talk about when it comes to the 203 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 6: payroll report. Yeah, we talk about twenty two thousand jobs, 204 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 6: we talk about how many construction jobs we had, or 205 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 6: how many retail jobs we had. 206 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 3: But we're not talking about how many do we need? 207 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 6: How many does the United States need to create in 208 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 6: order to have the break even rate, And that's driven 209 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 6: by population, and our population is driven by immigration, and 210 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 6: we have closed the border, and our population growth might 211 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 6: be approaching zero, and twenty two thousand jobs might be 212 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 6: all we need. And if it is all we need, 213 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 6: then we don't have any excess capacity. And if FED 214 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 6: wants to cut rates to stimulate an economy with no 215 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 6: excess capacity, they're just going to create more inflation. This 216 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 6: is the question that needs to be discussed, and it's 217 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 6: not really being discussed. 218 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 3: The chairman admitted it it's oddly in balanced, but then. 219 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 6: He kind of said, well, I'm afraid that things might 220 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 6: be going bad, so we better cut rates anyway. 221 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 3: Jam. 222 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:13,839 Speaker 2: It reminds me of something Governor County said of the 223 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 2: Bank of England. May be close to ten years ago 224 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 2: after break says that's something like the speed limit of 225 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 2: the UK economy had changed before inflation starts to pick 226 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,599 Speaker 2: up because of the damage done the supply side of 227 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 2: the economy. Jim, I imagine this is why you're taking 228 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 2: this conversation, do you think the FED is there and 229 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 2: do you think it raises questions about the kind of 230 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 2: guidance they can provide after cutting rights at this mazing 231 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 2: next week. 232 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,719 Speaker 6: I think the FED is there, that they understand the 233 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 6: argument that the supply side of the labor market is 234 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 6: coming down rapidly, and it isn't about how many jobs, 235 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 6: but how many do we need? I think where their 236 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 6: problem is, if I could be bune as it's a 237 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 6: political problem. 238 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 3: Do they want to say that out loud? 239 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 6: Does the chairman want to go to the lectern next 240 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 6: week in his press conference and say, look, twenty thousand 241 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 6: jobs is enough for the United States because we have. 242 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 3: No population growth. 243 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 6: I think he's definitely afraid to say that because if 244 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,839 Speaker 6: he does and he's wrong, the whole institution will be 245 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 6: permanently damaged. So they're going to err on the side 246 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 6: of easing, and it's what they're going to do. And 247 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,439 Speaker 6: the real question is are they airing by easing? And 248 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:17,599 Speaker 6: that's only going to be known over the fullness of 249 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,840 Speaker 6: time whether or not they do overstimulate. 250 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, it is a lot like Brexit. 251 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:25,199 Speaker 6: Something has changed in the supply dynamics of our labor market, 252 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 6: and we need to kind of understand. 253 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 2: It, Jemn Jason is a simple way to navigate that, 254 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 2: though diplomatically speaking, you can anky you'll view on the 255 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 2: labor market around unemployment, or you can ank you'll view 256 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 2: around the labor market on payrolls growth. Now something changed 257 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 2: Jim for the Federal Reserve chair because in the last 258 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 2: news conference he around unemployment, and in Jackson Holle it 259 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 2: seems to be about payrolls growth. 260 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, he's not been consistent on that. 261 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 6: And you know, anchoring it around unemployment means you're looking 262 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 6: at demand indicators for the labor market. Is the our 263 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 6: company's not hiring well, unemployment would go up, and it 264 00:11:57,760 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 6: largely has it. It was a four point two percent 265 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 6: thirteen months ago and it's four point three percent today. 266 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 6: Payroll growth can be a supply driven thing. So the 267 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 6: Fed has been a bit inconsistent with that. And that's 268 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 6: because we've never had to break up the labor market 269 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 6: and say here's the supply measures and here's the demand measures, 270 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 6: and we should be looking at things like unemployment or 271 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 6: like you know, initial claims or some of the other 272 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 6: things that would be more signifying of the demand. 273 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 3: By companies to want to hire. 274 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 2: Workers stay with US Molblomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 275 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 2: The economy adding more than twenty five thousand leisure and 276 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 2: hospitality jobs last month amid the weak August payrolls report. 277 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 2: Eric Resnik of cast Out Capital Partners, a global investor 278 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 2: and travel and leisure business right in the following, Consumers 279 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 2: are still prioritizing experiences over goods even as they trim budgets, 280 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 2: reinforcing long term tailwinds for the sector. Er it joints 281 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 2: to stand for more. Eric and Mornick ray John. Thanks 282 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 2: jpping Bye. I would love an update. We'd love an 283 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 2: update from you about half things now because only in 284 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 2: the Los Angeles slow we had a guest talk about 285 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 2: the upper income consumer may be starting to crack on 286 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 2: the edges. 287 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 7: Do you see any of that so now, I wouldn't 288 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 7: call it cracks at all. We do see the upper 289 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 7: upper ink and consumer being much stronger than the lower 290 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 7: inco consumer. We've been investing in the travel and leisure 291 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 7: space for thirty years now, and so an operator investing 292 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 7: in the US and globally, and I would say we 293 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 7: continually see there being a prediction that there's going to 294 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 7: be a reversal of what's been a secular trend for 295 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 7: six decades in favor of experiences over material goods, and 296 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 7: travel being the primary beneficiary of that. We don't see 297 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 7: a fundamental as sign that that's shifting. 298 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:45,719 Speaker 1: They're always going to do it for the gram, and 299 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: they're going to keep doing it for the GRAM and 300 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: keep seeing so regardless of what happens. I do wonder, though, 301 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:54,239 Speaker 1: just on a relative basis, whether you've seen a deceleration 302 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: in what the upper income tiers of travelers are willing 303 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: to accept. Are they still willing to pay that extra 304 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: whatever it is to get that even better room or 305 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: that better experience all around, or is there a bit 306 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: of pushback that you start to see come into the fray. 307 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 7: I think there's a there is a little bit of 308 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 7: I would say fatigue. You're a little bit of pricing 309 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 7: fatigue coming out of COVID. People are willing to pay 310 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 7: any price to get that room, to get that trip, 311 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 7: and you know that now is waned. We're in a 312 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 7: more normalized environment. So the rate of growth has shifted 313 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 7: down right what used to be or used to be 314 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 7: you comming at COVID double digit growth every year in 315 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 7: terms of both price and overall revenue. You know now 316 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 7: is made to high single digits for US, which is 317 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 7: better than the industry overall. But the industry overall is 318 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 7: quite healthy. At the high end, in particular the low 319 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 7: the lower end, the trends are a little bit negative. 320 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 1: Well, how much is that really continuing the idea that 321 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: there is this dispersion between the upper income the lower 322 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 1: income the lower income is really starting to struggle or 323 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 1: is there still this sort of desire to. 324 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 5: Go out and travel, et cetera. Just that not as 325 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 5: a sort of profligate with their dollars. 326 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 7: The design higher fundamentally has always been there and we 327 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 7: don't see that waning. What we do see is the 328 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 7: impact of inflation interest rates on the wallet of the 329 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 7: lower end. So you've seen trends in the last three 330 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 7: years since interest rates kicked up as a results of inflation, 331 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 7: you've seen the lower end hit harder. The higher end 332 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 7: has continued to spend just at those lower growth rates 333 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 7: than we had but more normalized. So like right now, 334 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 7: our bookings are up mid to high single digits as 335 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 7: we look forward over the next twelve months. That's good, healthy, 336 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 7: a good healthy trend. It doesn't the news cycle right, 337 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 7: the site, the report on jobs or hospitality out of 338 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 7: twenty eight thousand jobs last whatever, the last month, last quarter. 339 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 3: That is surprising to ma Any. 340 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 7: It's not surprising to us. The resiliency of travel going back, 341 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 7: having done this for thirty years is something that never 342 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 7: surprises us, but always seems to surprise the media, no 343 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 7: Present Company excluded. 344 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 2: Now, of course we're downed in every time we see 345 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 2: a move on euro dollar. We often joke that people 346 00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 2: are going to stop going to Europe euro a dollar 347 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 2: once seventeen twenty nine. Could you give us some clarity 348 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 2: on that? How much do things move based on a 349 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 2: ten percent move in the US dollar based on the 350 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 2: exposure that you have to travel properties around the world, I. 351 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 7: Would say ten percent moves don't move that much. We 352 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 7: see that, right, We've seen that in the pound. Over time, 353 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 7: we're seeing the euro. What does move people? You know, 354 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 7: the Japanese yen being thirty percent weaker than it was right, 355 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 7: That definitely impacts trends from Japan into Hawaii in particular, 356 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 7: that's the market we see that being most impactful for 357 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 7: us being in the leisure business. What that breakpoint is 358 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 7: you know, do people move between ten and thirty? Yeah, 359 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 7: somewhere between there. I think they do. I can't answer 360 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 7: where that line is, but I don't think that line 361 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 7: is around ten. 362 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 2: Does the political tension of a show up. Some of 363 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 2: the political tension is driven some of those currency pairs. 364 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 2: And we've talked a lot about how Canadians will maybe 365 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 2: stop income south of the border. Have you witnessed any 366 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 2: of that? Are the accents changing around the properties? 367 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 3: We do see a little bit of it. 368 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 7: Canadian traveled to Hawaii and Palm Springs, for example, both 369 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 7: down meaningfully. Canadian travel to our Mexican all inclusive properties, 370 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 7: and we just made a large investment in Mexico and 371 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 7: the Caribbean in that space actually well up. 372 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,679 Speaker 3: So it's a little bit like the commanite currency. 373 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 7: There is a threshold. Most of the geopolitical is news 374 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 7: is line noise when it comes to travel patterns, But 375 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 7: there is a threshold above which you hit. And some 376 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 7: of the Canadian and US tensions, if you will, I 377 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 7: think got above that level where it did start to 378 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 7: impact travel patterns. In fact, actually, I mean this is 379 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 7: a stat I'm not proud of. But the US is 380 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 7: the one country out of one hundred and eighty four 381 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 7: that are tracked by the World Tourism and our Travel 382 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 7: and Tourism Council, that is negative and international arrivals this. 383 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: Year, which raises a question going forward, as you make acquisitions, 384 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: as you make investments, that's what you do. How much 385 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 1: are you seeing opportunities continuing in the United States given valuations, 386 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: Given some of these concerns, are you getting more active 387 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:58,919 Speaker 1: or are you still kind of sitting on your hands 388 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: waiting for things to shake out. 389 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 7: Well, we see there being a large amount of opportunities 390 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 7: across the world to invest in travel. 391 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,880 Speaker 3: It's not just a US thing or a global thing. 392 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 7: Right now, we're still seeing overall transaction volumes down thirty 393 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 7: to fifty percent. 394 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 3: We do see the early signs. 395 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 7: And we've talked about this before actually here I think 396 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 7: a year ago, but we've seen the early signs of 397 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 7: we have lower interest rates, we have an increase in 398 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 7: NBA's being signed, an increased number of called fireside chats 399 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 7: of kind of early stage conversations between buyers and sellers 400 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 7: about potential transactions. Those early signs are definitely here. Coming 401 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 7: out of the summer. You've seen that kickup just in 402 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 7: the preparation of that for the last week post Labor Day. 403 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 7: So we anticipate that over the next six months activity 404 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 7: on the transaction side will get much more active. We've 405 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 7: been active, but still it's been more idiosyncratic deal flow 406 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 7: right that transaction I just mentioned we've bought two billion 407 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,120 Speaker 7: dollars of hotels from Hyatt Hotels in Mexico and the Caribbean, 408 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 7: or announced it rather we'll close later this year, but 409 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 7: announced a couple months ago. 410 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:02,479 Speaker 3: So we've been fairly active. 411 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 7: But we see a lot more activity in the forward 412 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 7: facing era. 413 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 2: Stay with US multiple IMPEG surveillance coming up. Off to this, 414 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 2: tyber Marcus of Wolf Research joins US now for more. 415 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 2: Tiban Tata said it three hundred and fifty billion dollar 416 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 2: fund to have South Korean firms expand right here in 417 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 2: the United States. How much did we complicate things over 418 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 2: the weekend? 419 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 8: Well, I think there have been a lot of complications 420 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 8: throughout the trade agenda for a while, and a lot 421 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 8: of tensions between different elements of the President's economic strategy 422 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 8: as it retains to manufacturing in the US and getting 423 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 8: these investments into the US. You have, on the one hand, 424 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 8: these big investment incentives in the Big Beautiful Bill. On 425 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 8: the other hand, you know, both tariffs on inputs and 426 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 8: immigration restrictions do post significant challenges for firms who want 427 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 8: to manufacture in the US, whether they be domestic firms 428 00:19:56,800 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 8: or international firms. I think we're seeing signs of labor 429 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 8: availability being an issue in the job data, among other things. 430 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 8: So you know, even in the Japan deal that they 431 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 8: did finally execute the reduction in the auto TIFFs with 432 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 8: the executive order from the President last week, the details 433 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 8: about that big investment fund that they pledged to, it's 434 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 8: been characterized very similarly to the South Korean one, remain 435 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 8: somewhat somewhat thin. 436 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 3: So, you know, I think there are a lot of 437 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 3: balls up in the air on this one. 438 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 1: Debin how much political risk is there domestically in some 439 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 1: of the nations that are negotiating trade deals with the US. 440 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: I'm thinking you mentioned Japan and the trade deal that 441 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 1: they came up with, and Prime Minister Ishiba is stepping 442 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,920 Speaker 1: down after completing that plan. I mean, how much is 443 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 1: the pushback not necessarily coming from the politicians, but from 444 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 1: the different populations of a number of these countries. 445 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a real challenge. 446 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 8: I mean, Prime Minister Ishida in Japan obviously was under 447 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 8: a lot of pre existing political pressure. Similarly to the 448 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,919 Speaker 8: South Korean political situation has been very, very unsettled over 449 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 8: the past several months. Even separate from those trade talks. 450 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 8: It is, you know, I think a political liability for 451 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 8: the leaders who are executing some of these deals in 452 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 8: countries that have some of their own kind of you know, pride, 453 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 8: in a sense of domestic among the domestic populace, that 454 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 8: they shouldn't be just giving the US whatever they want. 455 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 8: I think there's lets backlash than some of the cases 456 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 8: where it's just an existential threat to the country they 457 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:24,200 Speaker 8: had no ability to do much about, like Vietnam, which 458 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 8: of course also has a more authoritarian political system. But yeah, 459 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 8: I mean in South Korea, in Japan, even in the EU, 460 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 8: there's definitely some signs of backlash from you know, getting 461 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 8: you know, what they would characterize is the least bad 462 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 8: available deal in a situation where the US had them 463 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 8: over a. 464 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:41,359 Speaker 1: Barrel jobin Do you think that this DJA right, The 465 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: ice raed was part of a coordinated effort on the 466 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 1: part of the administration to put out a multi prompt 467 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 1: policy of both the tariffs as well as trying to 468 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 1: encourage domestic training and domestic hiring, or do you think 469 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 1: that this indicates departments that might not be working and 470 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: sync with one another. 471 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 8: I think there's a real tension between the goals here. 472 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 8: I mean the remarks from President Trump that you played 473 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 8: a moment ago. He talked about, like, we need to 474 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,360 Speaker 8: figure out some way to get highly skilled people here. 475 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 8: But I think the folks in the administration who are 476 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,959 Speaker 8: in charge of immigration policy up to Stephen Miller are 477 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 8: not huge fans of legal immigration either. It's sort of 478 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,199 Speaker 8: easy to say, but then doing it is another thing. 479 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 8: We saw even in the first Trump administration, they you know, 480 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 8: kind of ground down the pace at which visas for 481 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 8: high skilled legal immigration were being issued. 482 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 3: Similarly, we've not seen that ramp up here. 483 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,439 Speaker 8: If you're trying to like create some big new expedited pathway, 484 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 8: you would need to work with Congress, and I see 485 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 8: no appetite whatsoever to do that. So, you know, I 486 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 8: think that there is a sincere commitment to immigration policy 487 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,360 Speaker 8: from the entire administration. They're pursuing that for its own 488 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 8: sake and to the extent that it creates difficulties for 489 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 8: the other aims of the administration in terms of promoting manufacturing. 490 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 3: That's just collateral damage. 491 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg's Amendments podcast, bringing you the best 492 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show 493 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to 494 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 495 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,440 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the 496 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,880 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.