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Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane

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Speaker 1: Jai Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Katie

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Speaker 1: stuck enjoins us. She is with fair lead where she

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Speaker 1: does technical analysis. Fair lead is very appropriate because right

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Speaker 1: now France and the coast trying to get the role

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Speaker 1: model London can't do it. So the Royal Navy's coming in.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna try her to put her through Gibraltar and around,

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Speaker 1: take a long way around and on that Royal Navy

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Speaker 1: boat will be a fair lead. Right. What's a fair lead?

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Speaker 1: It keeps the lines on the boat from getting tangled.

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Speaker 1: And it seems, you know, Mark get timing is so important,

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Speaker 1: right and we want to keep a clearer perspective and

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Speaker 1: obviously have a fair lead as we approached the market.

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Speaker 1: Are the moving averages of the equity markets giving you

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Speaker 1: a fair lead right now? I think so, but probably

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Speaker 1: less so than last year. The moving averages are really

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Speaker 1: relevant in a trending tape, and I would argue that

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Speaker 1: this year is more likely less of a trending tape,

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Speaker 1: something that is characterized by more swings to the upside

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Speaker 1: and downside, and for that reason we'll be forced to

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Speaker 1: be a bit more short term in our focus. How

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Speaker 1: do you gauge what's been happening with the SMP five, say,

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Speaker 1: when we've had that sharp draw down, then this aggressive

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Speaker 1: snap back as well. Does that provide you with some nerves?

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Speaker 1: It does. In the corrective phase, which was very short lived,

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Speaker 1: of course, we saw a sentiment which was the biggest

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Speaker 1: risk to the market from a technical perspective, in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: go from extremely bullish, which is a contrarian negative, to

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Speaker 1: extremely bearished in the matter of days. Really, so that

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Speaker 1: swift decline in sentiment was indicative of a treatable low.

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Speaker 1: The SMP five hundred tests that it's two hundred day

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Speaker 1: moving average. Now, the snap back that we've seen is

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Speaker 1: not uncommon, obviously fast and furious in and of itself,

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Speaker 1: but now seems to be losing short term momentum, which

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Speaker 1: puts the market in store for possible retest, and by

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Speaker 1: retest I mean a return to support. Well casey, where

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Speaker 1: is that support? The two day moving average still for

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Speaker 1: the SMP five hundred can be considered initial support. It

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Speaker 1: may be a bit aggressive as a downside target for

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Speaker 1: this retest, and nevertheless, the long term up trend is

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Speaker 1: still very much intact. You've mentioned sentiment. How important is

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Speaker 1: sentiments still? And more importantly perhaps for our listeners, Katie,

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Speaker 1: how do you gauge west sentiment actually is? Well? I

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Speaker 1: think it's really paramount because it is a driving force

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Speaker 1: behind the markets, especially in markets that are so momentum

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Speaker 1: driven and really top down oriented, right, really paying attention

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Speaker 1: to the macro data. So I think it's very important.

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Speaker 1: The way I'd like to gauge it is using transactual measures.

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Speaker 1: So instead of adhering to the investor polls where they're

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Speaker 1: asking how do you feel about the marketplace, but rather

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Speaker 1: looking at how investors are positioning. You can do that

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Speaker 1: via the vix via to put call ratios. There's a

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Speaker 1: fear and greed index out there that we use quite

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Speaker 1: a bit. I don't follow volume, and I know you

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Speaker 1: pay attention to it. When Luisiamnta talks about distribution, that's

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Speaker 1: the back and fourth of what's going on right now?

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Speaker 1: What's the back and forth show? You? You know, the volumes.

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Speaker 1: I don't give it a whole lot of weight either.

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Speaker 1: Um when I do pay attention is when volume spikes,

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Speaker 1: because that's indicative, isn't It really didn't write well. It

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Speaker 1: did spike into the tradea below, so that was important.

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Speaker 1: It was somewhat climactic, but it has certainly spiked higher

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Speaker 1: than that. It can be indicative of inflection points, but

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Speaker 1: volume as a whole has really lost its value in

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Speaker 1: my opinion as a an indicator trend, so distribution would

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Speaker 1: be a little bit less relevant as it pertains to volume.

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Speaker 1: Katie Stockton, thank you so much with Fairley, and she

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Speaker 1: will return for a longer bit. But news news overcomes

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Speaker 1: all those morning Katie stocked and thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Constructive view on the markets wrapped around the standard reports.

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Speaker 1: Much to talk about today, but we're gonna digress here

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Speaker 1: right now, and really important issues for all Americans. Out

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Speaker 1: of the various California pension plans right now. Chris Allman

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Speaker 1: joins us, and he is not with Kelpers p. He

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Speaker 1: is with Kelsters. S Good morning, sir. What is the

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Speaker 1: difference between Kelsters and Kelpers In a nutshell, we cover

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Speaker 1: the teachers, they cover state employees and municipal employees city

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Speaker 1: towns in that I've read in the last couple of

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Speaker 1: days of real chick oallenges within not your shop, but

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Speaker 1: their shops over different accounting and their relationship with their clients,

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Speaker 1: who are towns and villages to begin with. Does Kelsters

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Speaker 1: have the same challenges that Kelpers has not to the

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Speaker 1: extent that they do, because it's all about liability management?

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Speaker 1: You know, I think when everybody talks about pension and

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Speaker 1: unfunded liabilities, they always focus on the investment side. But

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Speaker 1: the realities, you've got to pay attention to the liability

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Speaker 1: side and the contributions. They've got more municipalities that set

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Speaker 1: different benefit levels. In our case, it's one statewide benefit

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Speaker 1: to all the simpler shop. Your mathematics is simpler. That

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Speaker 1: is correct. There. There's a lot of people are saying

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Speaker 1: what's going on in California is a crucible for Illinois,

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Speaker 1: for Dallas and Frankly coast to coast the rest of America.

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Speaker 1: Are you guys simply ahead of a debate? It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be five or ten years down the road for the

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Speaker 1: rest of unfunded America. UM, I don't think I think

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Speaker 1: we're ahead of the debate. But I don't think that

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Speaker 1: were the crucible or the center. I think that you're

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Speaker 1: going to see other states and as you said, municipalities

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Speaker 1: where they didn't do a good job of managing the liabilities.

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Speaker 1: They didn't pay attention to the benefits, and most importantly,

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Speaker 1: they didn't consistently pay the mortgage. They skipped payments, they

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Speaker 1: had payment holiday the mortgage. For your readers or your listeners,

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Speaker 1: they understand they're not paying the actually real assumed interest

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Speaker 1: rate every year. There's a required rate that you've got

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Speaker 1: to pay in. You've got to contribute. The town has

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Speaker 1: to pay to kelpers, of the teachers have to pay

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Speaker 1: to kelsters. That is correct. Best example picture of four

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Speaker 1: oh one k If you don't invest in your four

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Speaker 1: oh one k oh for a couple of years when

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Speaker 1: you're twenty, a couple of years when you're thirty, of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, you get to fifty and you're not gonna

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Speaker 1: have enough money because you didn't invest and contribute regularly

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Speaker 1: to the contributions. That are the focus and John that

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Speaker 1: defines about three quarters of America. It's a very very

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Speaker 1: important issue. But on the other side, something that you

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Speaker 1: you have to try and manage Chris, is the return assumptions?

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Speaker 1: What are the basic assumptions for returns now and how

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Speaker 1: they shifted over the last ten years. Yeah, they've come

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Speaker 1: down over the last ten years. There have been lots

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Speaker 1: of critics that they haven't come down enough. But remember,

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Speaker 1: we're trying to make a forecast for the next thirty years.

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Speaker 1: What's the reasonable rate of return that a diversified portfolio

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Speaker 1: could earn over the next thirty years. And don't just

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Speaker 1: look at today's environment where interest rates are. I think

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Speaker 1: about the innovation that's coming. Think about the growth of

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Speaker 1: the rest of the world, the emerging markets. So for us, yeah,

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Speaker 1: answer and simple number is seven percent. Warren Buffett would

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Speaker 1: say that's too high, but I would say if you

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Speaker 1: look at over thirty years, with a little bit of inflation,

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Speaker 1: I think we can achieve seven percent. We have in

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Speaker 1: the past thirty years. We have turned eight percent in

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Speaker 1: the last thirty years. How difficult would it be to

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Speaker 1: actually capture those growth assumptions in public markets when so

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Speaker 1: many of these growth opportunities aren't going public, they're staying private.

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Speaker 1: And I'm talking obviously specifically about equities, and very much

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Speaker 1: more so about one specific text sector in technology. Do

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Speaker 1: you see that shift that more growth opportunities will remain

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Speaker 1: in private hands and they won't be available as a

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Speaker 1: public opportunity. I'd answer your question in two ways. If

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Speaker 1: you're a four oh one K four oh three B investor,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be hard for you to match our return

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Speaker 1: at seven percent because we can gain access to that

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Speaker 1: private capital market. We had met with the Jay Clayton

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Speaker 1: from SEC yesterday and one of his observations was that

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Speaker 1: there's only about forty one hundred publicly traded companies in

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Speaker 1: America today. When I started this business thirty years ago,

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Speaker 1: there were over seven thousand, So over half of the

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Speaker 1: company's basically have gone and stayed private or not going

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Speaker 1: public because there's a cost to it. That's a huge

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Speaker 1: investment opportunity we can take advantage of. And there's growth

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Speaker 1: in that private and it's growth in the private sector,

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Speaker 1: and it's actually a huge amount of investment opportunity there.

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Speaker 1: They can access all the capital they want. The stories

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Speaker 1: changed so much because they used to have to go

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Speaker 1: public to access the capital, and now PE is just

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Speaker 1: opening up funds of people throwing money at them. Do

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Speaker 1: we need to improve the opportunity set for retail to

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Speaker 1: get access to private markets, the opportunities that used to

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Speaker 1: be public and now remain private. Do we need to

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Speaker 1: open that up a little bit more? Chris Um. I

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Speaker 1: think that the private equity firms are always trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out how to do that. That's been on people's

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Speaker 1: mind of how do you daily value or how do

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Speaker 1: you take private equity and fitted into a four O

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Speaker 1: wind k option. I'm not really sure that they should

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Speaker 1: because that's a very sophisticated market, a lot of volatility.

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Speaker 1: You just use the expression that pe is throwing money

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Speaker 1: at companies. That's not a good environment. You don't want

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Speaker 1: to throw money at p A to do something that

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Speaker 1: all sitting on record cash piles. There's no question the

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Speaker 1: world is a wash with capital. Never in Tom Keene's

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Speaker 1: life have you seen this much money around the world

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Speaker 1: that's able for long term investment. Just think of the

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Speaker 1: sovereign wealth funds that are out there. There there ten

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Speaker 1: times are I go with that? But after the Napoleonic

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Speaker 1: Wars it was a little richest. Well, that's true. Equity

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Speaker 1: markets have a multiple on them, that is, are you

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Speaker 1: able to go down assets size and go from comfortable

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Speaker 1: big caps down to mid cap and small cap or

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Speaker 1: do you have such a massive money just as it

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Speaker 1: worth buying mid caps and small caps. No, we are

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Speaker 1: diverside portfolio, Tom. We're into mid caps and indexes, yes, indexes,

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Speaker 1: and then direct active management. That's the one place we

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Speaker 1: think the markets a little bit less efficient, so we'll

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Speaker 1: use active managers despite the cost. But I think an opportunities,

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Speaker 1: particularly in emerging markets around the world, not even just

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Speaker 1: large cap and mid cap and emerging markets, we can

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Speaker 1: take advantage of that. So you were the French teacher

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Speaker 1: in San Jose, and she says, what did you do

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Speaker 1: last year? What? What's your What was your total return

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Speaker 1: last year to your your shareholders last year? Are total

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Speaker 1: return um was? I'm gonna say fourteen percent. Actually, I'm

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Speaker 1: still past two thousand seventeen, and i operate on a

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Speaker 1: fiscal year basis, so I'm really focused at June thirties

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Speaker 1: and and where do we perform. We're doing well. We're

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Speaker 1: like a lot of hedge funds. You captured a lot

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Speaker 1: of the up SPX. Absolutely, because over half of my

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Speaker 1: portfolio has a beta exposure to the global equity markets.

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Speaker 1: So I'm in US and in non U S stocks,

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Speaker 1: and I'm going to move with those markets. But over

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Speaker 1: the long term, we think we're going to do quite well.

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Speaker 1: What's your R squared to SP something? How tight do

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Speaker 1: you manage the benchmark indexes within the equity portfolio? Very tight?

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Speaker 1: Our tracking error is actually pretty darn tight because we

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Speaker 1: don't use a lot of active management. We're seventy passive

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Speaker 1: in the USA, fifty percent passive in the non US market,

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Speaker 1: so very tight passive. That's fascinating. We have that big

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Speaker 1: conversation without Warren Buffett, and they beat against protege pond

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Speaker 1: as you saying that's the best way to position over

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Speaker 1: a period of time that could be multiple decades. We

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Speaker 1: think that if you're going to invest billions of dollars,

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Speaker 1: the most efficient and cost effective way to do it

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Speaker 1: is is to own the US market as one whole group,

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Speaker 1: as one basket of stock. Yeah, there aren't a lot

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Speaker 1: of Warren Buffets out there. It would be great if

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Speaker 1: we had quite a few options, but there's only one

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Speaker 1: oracle of Omaha. Chris. Final question, we have a limited time.

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Speaker 1: I just want to ask you how much is that

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Speaker 1: equity position increased as a percentage of the overall investment portfolio.

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Speaker 1: Over the last couple of years, it's actually decreased interesting

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Speaker 1: profits well, as this equity market was hitting all time

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Speaker 1: new eyes US and non US, we were taking profits

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Speaker 1: away and diversifying into other areas. We want to take

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Speaker 1: it down below of the portfolio. Okay, well, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much, Craig, Chris Elman, excuse me, Chris Ellman, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. With Kelster's this morning and now joining

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Speaker 1: us for all of us, the most important interview of

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Speaker 1: the day, without question, on your real estate, on John

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Speaker 1: Farrell's real estate. Jonathan Miller joins us with Miller, Samuel John,

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Speaker 1: nobody keep statistics like you, Miami, New York and really nationwide.

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Speaker 1: What's the trend right now into John Pharaoh's spring season. Well,

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Speaker 1: we have two things happening. One, if you look at

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Speaker 1: the residential side, so far, very little change in attitude

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Speaker 1: from what was expected to be a pretty serious drag

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Speaker 1: on housing, uh regarding the tax reform. On the retail side,

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Speaker 1: we're delving further into the retail apocalypse, where we're having

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Speaker 1: a significant number of retail outlets running into trouble and

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Speaker 1: trying to renegotiate with landlords. UM, it's sort of a

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Speaker 1: an after effect of the financial crisis combined with massively

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Speaker 1: over building retail across the US. It's price adjusting for

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Speaker 1: the retail apocalypse. Is that happening quick enough? Oh no, Uh,

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Speaker 1: just like we we have talked about before in Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: with UH the development boom. UH, it takes UH landlords

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Speaker 1: or property owners two to three years to really adjust

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Speaker 1: to current market conditions. And we're just really something that

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Speaker 1: began two or three years ago. We're just starting to

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Speaker 1: see retailers or landlords begin to adjust and they need to. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the big complaint I get John Miller is Michael Dell

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Speaker 1: takes a place in a big, shining tower and everybody

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Speaker 1: goes mental. That's not the real world. And we say

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Speaker 1: good morning to Mr Dell, who's been very supportive of

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Speaker 1: our work, UM, John Miller. If you go down the

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Speaker 1: income food chain, the number one complaint I hear from

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Speaker 1: everybody are the income qualifications Given a high rents in

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Speaker 1: many cities around the nation, is that pressure still there? Oh? Yes,

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Speaker 1: Credit conditions UH in multi family housing, UH, specifically residential

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Speaker 1: rental remained very high. That there's a strong risk aversion UH,

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Speaker 1: despite growing um uh need for the use of concession.

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Speaker 1: So for example, in New York, UH the at least

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Speaker 1: fifty of all rental activity has some form of landlord concession.

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Speaker 1: And when you talk about new development, all the product

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Speaker 1: that I'm built over the five or six years, it's

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Speaker 1: anywhere from have some form of concession. So what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing is an oversupply, whether we're talking about luxury residential

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Speaker 1: or we're talking about retail. And but the the issue,

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Speaker 1: John and Blueberg has an agreement, folks. I can't live

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Speaker 1: too close to John Ferrell because in case there was

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Speaker 1: an accident, we need to be apart. But but if

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Speaker 1: I was to move up by John Farrow, the fact

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Speaker 1: is where he lives is so fancy. There's nothing for rent.

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Speaker 1: Explain what you just said, John Miller for ten minutes,

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Speaker 1: and the fact is there's nothing for rent. How can

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Speaker 1: you have both worlds? Well, So what you have is

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Speaker 1: you have a massively polarized market. So most of the

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Speaker 1: supply that has come in on the residential side has

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Speaker 1: been skewed the luxury and so that essentially the remainder

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Speaker 1: of it. I want to say, if Tom King wants

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Speaker 1: to trade views out of the front window. We're not

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Speaker 1: going to talk about where we live. Um. Jonathan made

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Speaker 1: a question and serious question hap me out here and

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Speaker 1: in my app some of our listeners as well. The

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Speaker 1: landlord wants to put up my rent in the new renewal.

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Speaker 1: I'm a captive audience. I'm a sitting tenant. Now, if

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Speaker 1: I go to another building, they're offering two months free

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Speaker 1: rent on fourteen month deals. It keeps happening again and again.

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Speaker 1: But when I'm a sitting tenant, they're just throwing a

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Speaker 1: rent increase at me. What's my best response? So the

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Speaker 1: best response is to act as if the market is softening,

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Speaker 1: um and if you you see a rent increase. Actually,

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Speaker 1: landlords are are really being much more uh flexible than

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Speaker 1: they have been because otherwise your option with all the

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Speaker 1: um all your other options are to to move. And

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Speaker 1: so we're seeing massive use of concessions uh to keep

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Speaker 1: you in there because it's it's less expensive to bringing

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Speaker 1: in and then bringing a new tenant. Does San Francisco

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Speaker 1: break like New York? Oh yeah, uh yeah, that market,

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Speaker 1: you know that market. It's it's odd because we always

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Speaker 1: think of New York is the most expensive in the country,

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Speaker 1: but that market is feeling much more pain and stress

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Speaker 1: on affordability, and they're having the same problem that there

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Speaker 1: just isn't supply, uh for as we would say, Mere mortals,

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Speaker 1: mortals to rent. Well, thank you, Jim Miller greatly appreciate

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Speaker 1: he's with the real estate agency Mere Mortals. We greatly

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Speaker 1: appreciate his attendance today. John Miller Folcus is with Miller,

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Speaker 1: Samuel and Douglas Eleman and does the best. He passes

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Speaker 1: John Burrow to Bureau and Borrow to Borrow and down

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Speaker 1: in Miami as well in Boston. It's amazing the narrowness

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Speaker 1: he gets. This is a joy. George Friedman is one

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Speaker 1: of our most astute analysts of the military dimension of

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Speaker 1: our international politics. Chapter five of the Next hundred Years

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Speaker 1: is China two thousand and twenty Paper Tiger. George Freedman

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Speaker 1: joins us now author and with of course, with geopolitical futures. George,

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Speaker 1: do you have to rip up the next hundred years?

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Speaker 1: And you have to rip up chapter five Paper Tiger?

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Speaker 1: After this momentous announcement of President g I don't think

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Speaker 1: I have to rip up anything. Uh. Look, the Chinese

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Speaker 1: have a fundamental interest in controlling the South China. See

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Speaker 1: in ten years of pursuing this that got nowhere. No

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Speaker 1: one is impressed. Not even the Filipinos h New York

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Speaker 1: Times is impressed. So you know, they can be as

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Speaker 1: loud and as aggressive as they want, but the fact

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Speaker 1: of the matter is they don't have force. How do

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Speaker 1: you respond to the comparisons of this historic announcement from

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Speaker 1: President g and I guess the Communist Party with what

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Speaker 1: we observe from Mr Putin today in Russia is lengthy

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Speaker 1: speech to uh an acclaimed room. Well, these are two

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Speaker 1: basically constrained military pours trying to posture on the world

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Speaker 1: strage as if they were much more powerful. Look, the

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Speaker 1: Russians claimed that they're spending only four of their GDP

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Speaker 1: on defense. If you take a look at all the

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Speaker 1: projects they've laid out, some of them extraordinarily advanced, they're

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Speaker 1: spent it way way more at a time when oil

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Speaker 1: prices are down. So if he is serious that he's

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Speaker 1: actually done this, he's repeating what so the Union got

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Speaker 1: crushed by star Wars competition. On the one side, low

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Speaker 1: oil prices. It is one thing to make a political speech,

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Speaker 1: it's another thing to believe it, and we have to

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Speaker 1: be very careful, Mr Friedman. During this speech, a President

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Speaker 1: Putin talked about two specific nuclear weapon delivery systems. I'm

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Speaker 1: wondering if you could offer your thoughts about whether they

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Speaker 1: are credible and what do you believe that indicates. Well,

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Speaker 1: the most important one he spoke about is that he

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Speaker 1: had a cruise missile back in travel at mock times

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Speaker 1: his speed of sound and deliver in nuclear weapon anywhere

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Speaker 1: in the world. The only question is, why do you

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Speaker 1: want a weapon like that to deliver nuclear weapons? You've

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Speaker 1: got I C B M. S um. They're not easy

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Speaker 1: to defend against. Noblan claims they can defend against it.

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Speaker 1: Why develop a weapon of this sort at this incredible

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Speaker 1: expense Because you've got to develop materials, fuels, other things

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Speaker 1: like that in order to do a nuclear attack, a

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Speaker 1: lot of other ways to do it. I think they're

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Speaker 1: working on it. I think a lot of countries, including

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Speaker 1: the United States, are working on this. But his claim

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Speaker 1: that they've got it, as like much of the speech

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Speaker 1: he made, it was great campaign rhetoric, it was a

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Speaker 1: good State of the Union message, but when you drill

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Speaker 1: down into it, he's claiming to be developing weapons he

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Speaker 1: doesn't even need in that context. The elections, as you indicate,

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Speaker 1: they are coming up, what in about seventeen days, will

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Speaker 1: there be any change after the election in the way

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Speaker 1: Russia is governed? Well, the Russians are really trapped, as

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Speaker 1: most nations are there, trapped by an economy that never

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Speaker 1: evolved that depends on the price of oil, and they

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Speaker 1: can't They can't control the price of oil, and it's

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Speaker 1: not going back to eight or hundred, at least not

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Speaker 1: in the near future. So they have got this problem

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Speaker 1: that limits what they can do. They also want to

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Speaker 1: appear for their own public and for the world as

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Speaker 1: if they were major global powers. They're not, but they

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Speaker 1: can make a speech that makes them sound really frightening,

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Speaker 1: and that's what we did. George, you're asconsed in the

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Speaker 1: People's Republic of Austin. The territory around you maybe ought

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Speaker 1: to be the most likable territory for President Trump. How

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Speaker 1: do you gauge the American public support of the president's

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Speaker 1: foreign policy and the budget announcements of a build up

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Speaker 1: of the military. How do you engage that? Well, I

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Speaker 1: haven't live outside of Austin, in the Red Country, and

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Speaker 1: the general view out here is they're not really interested

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Speaker 1: in foreign policy nearly as much. There's trade issues and

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Speaker 1: things like that, and they don't quite understand it. But

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Speaker 1: they want to military build up, right, they do. But

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Speaker 1: it's not a it's not a burning issue. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is not something that they're really they're really caught

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Speaker 1: up on social issues. As to the people inside of Austin.

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Speaker 1: They hate anything he does if he does it. So

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Speaker 1: what you really have the social reality is you've got

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Speaker 1: two groups, none of them are particularly coherent in terms

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Speaker 1: of policy, but each have one basic belief that the

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Speaker 1: other group really is vile. And you try to figure

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Speaker 1: out what it is that each wants, it gets really

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Speaker 1: murky really fast. Okay, Well, let's sake something like the

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Speaker 1: F thirty five, of which I have almost zero knowledge.

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Speaker 1: The if we throw more money at the Pentagon, which

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Speaker 1: I believe is what we're gonna do. Does George Friedman

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Speaker 1: have a confidence we're gonna build the better F. Well,

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Speaker 1: you've caught me on a bad subject because I think

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Speaker 1: that thirty five are really bad idea. Well, that's how

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Speaker 1: we're talking to It's a wildly expensive plane, is extremely complicated,

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Speaker 1: and we can only afford to build a few. We're

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Speaker 1: building an air force where we can't afford to take losses.

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Speaker 1: So I mean you shoot them that thirty five you're

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Speaker 1: taken out the g d P of El Salvador. Uh,

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Speaker 1: this is there about a million a copy and that's

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Speaker 1: with the price cut, and that's not including the long

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Speaker 1: term maintenance and everything else that you have to build

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Speaker 1: into It is very hard to maintain. So the answer

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Speaker 1: is we need a national strategy that defines who were

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Speaker 1: likely to fight and then devised weapons that are likely

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Speaker 1: to do something about it. Where we really do need

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Speaker 1: the money is in developing the manpower that we need

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Speaker 1: in the army. This army has been fighting for sixteen years.

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Speaker 1: They are tired. Lot of the key people have retired.

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Speaker 1: I'll be personal. My daughter, who was a major, went

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Speaker 1: on three tours to Iraq. They totally you're going back

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Speaker 1: in nine months, and she threw in the towel that

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Speaker 1: army that we have, the personnel have been used up

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Speaker 1: and ground down. So where you need the money is

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Speaker 1: to build up the force. It's morale, it's training and

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Speaker 1: things like that. The hardware we're pretty good at, and

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Speaker 1: the hardware we need to develop can be developed out

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Speaker 1: of that money. But what we really need is an

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Speaker 1: army UH to fight with those forces with those weapons.

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Speaker 1: Mr Freedman. The book that I believe you're working on

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Speaker 1: is titled The New American Century. Can you offer people

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Speaker 1: maybe in about the thirty seconds the overall gist of

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Speaker 1: what you're trying to convey, Well, the gist of it

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Speaker 1: is every fifty years the United States goes into an

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Speaker 1: economic crisis. The last one was Ronald Reagan crisis, the

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Speaker 1: one he saws. The one before that was FDRs, And

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Speaker 1: going back into history to Andrew Jackson, this is the

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Speaker 1: way we work. We are now entering the closing phase

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Speaker 1: of the Reagan cycle, and we are seeing the beginnings

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Speaker 1: of the crazy politics like we had in in when

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Speaker 1: the assassinations are taking place, riots in Chicago and one.

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Speaker 1: So this is a normal process. This is how we

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Speaker 1: do things. And what appears to be the end of

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Speaker 1: the United States, well, it's simply the way we go

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Speaker 1: through it. And it's a huge sense of despair at

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Speaker 1: the end of an age. But the Reagan period is

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Speaker 1: drawing to in a hole and a new one is emerging.

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Speaker 1: George Freeman, thank you so much. Never done time use

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Speaker 1: with geopolitical futures. Terse perspective on our military doesn't link

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Speaker 1: ag into our political economics. M Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You can

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio