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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent

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Speaker 2: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,

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Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 2: But enough with that, Let's get to the show.

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Speaker 3: All right, Welcome to Counterpoints, Happy Wednesday.

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Speaker 4: Emily Drishinski, joined by my co host Ryan Graham, who

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Speaker 4: is once again giving us a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: French dispatch.

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Speaker 3: Ryan, it seems like you're enjoying the sun.

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Speaker 1: I really am. It's pretty lovely over here. I recommend

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Speaker 1: it to people.

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Speaker 3: Well in DC.

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Speaker 4: August is known as a very slow news month. That

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Speaker 4: is increasingly not the case as the years go by,

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Speaker 4: but especially not this year. We're going to start with

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Speaker 4: the big news out of Ohio last night, where a

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Speaker 4: referendum gives us some insight, first of all, into how

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Speaker 4: the issue of abortion is playing politically and to where

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Speaker 4: the political fortunes of a major, major, major abortion amendment

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Speaker 4: to the Constitution in the state of Ohio could stand

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Speaker 4: going forward later this year.

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Speaker 3: We're going to talk about a huge shakeup, very significant.

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Speaker 4: Ron DeSantis has fired his campaign manager two months into

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Speaker 4: his campaign. There's all kinds of stuff to talk about there.

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Speaker 4: We're going to talk about Davis Bacon. I'm sure Ryan

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Speaker 4: has all kinds of thoughts on that we are going

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Speaker 4: to talk about. We're going to do a little bit

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Speaker 4: of an update on the economy and some really I

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Speaker 4: think troubling numbers when it comes to personal debt and

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Speaker 4: where that standing, credit card debt and the like. What

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Speaker 4: that says about the future of the economy, the immediate

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Speaker 4: future of the economy.

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Speaker 3: We're going to dive into.

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Speaker 4: That Montgomery brawl on the riverfront down to Alabama. There's

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Speaker 4: some stuff to break down there, and we'll have the

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Speaker 4: video for you as well. And I'm going to talk

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Speaker 4: about actually the political fortunes of porn Hub, which aim

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Speaker 4: to be waning. Ryan has a big update for us

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Speaker 4: too that'll be posted later because it's breaking news. But

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Speaker 4: other than that, Ryan, anything to add here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I mean, first of all, looking forward to

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Speaker 1: talking about the Battle of Montgomery.

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Speaker 5: This is watching those videos.

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Speaker 1: It brought me back to the drunken mayhem of the

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Speaker 1: kind of rock hall boat docking contest. If you've ever

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Speaker 1: been to that on the Eastern Shore, you know how

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Speaker 1: wild it can get. Spending all day on the boat

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Speaker 1: drinking can can lead to you to make some pretty

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Speaker 1: bad decisions. And these that group of white dudes made

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Speaker 1: some decisions that managed to get the entire country united

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Speaker 1: behind them. So it's really glorious to see, you know,

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Speaker 1: American unity, everybody agreeing that those guys got probably not.

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Speaker 5: Everything that they deserved.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk about the legal repercussions for them

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Speaker 1: as well.

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Speaker 6: Well.

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Speaker 1: But as you guys remember from last week, we were

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Speaker 1: talking about the biggest, biggest election that was going to

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Speaker 1: happen over the next couple of months was going to

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Speaker 1: be in Ohio. You know, where Republicans had tried to

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Speaker 1: use the sleepy August vacation time where everybody's out at

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Speaker 1: the French riviera relaxing, not back.

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Speaker 5: The people, all the people the French rivi era, and.

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Speaker 1: So they're not back in Ohio to vote for to

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Speaker 1: support abortion rights, that was the thinking of Republicans. Instead,

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Speaker 1: you had turnout like you, like I was going to say,

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Speaker 1: like that you could never expect, but we already saw

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Speaker 1: it in Kansas. You know, Republicans went for the same

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Speaker 1: thing in Kansas, thinking that in the summer they'd get

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Speaker 1: a you know, a sleepy off your election and their

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Speaker 1: core supporters would be energized to come out and the

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Speaker 1: Democrats and an abortion right supporter wouldn't.

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Speaker 5: Instead.

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Speaker 1: I don't have the exact numbers in front of me,

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Speaker 1: but the last I saw it was something like you

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Speaker 1: had a few were the two million people vote in

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Speaker 1: the primary in twenty twenty two that had US senators, governors,

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Speaker 1: you know, you know, high level officials on the ballot for.

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Speaker 3: This seven double that. Yeah, the turnout in twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: two was seven point nine percent straight wide.

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Speaker 5: They almost doubled that.

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Speaker 1: It feels like maybe eighty percent increase over that more

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Speaker 1: than two million people pushing three perhaps almost a million

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Speaker 1: absentee votes and a resounding victory. And to be clear,

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Speaker 1: this was not this It was not specifically on abortion rights.

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Speaker 1: The question was in November and going forward, should you

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Speaker 1: need sixty percent to amend the Ohio Constitution. There will

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Speaker 1: be an abortion rights measure on the ballot in November

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Speaker 1: that is pulling at around fifty eight or fifty nine percent,

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Speaker 1: and so this was understood to be a proxy for

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Speaker 1: that coming referendum, and the latest numbers have it up

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Speaker 1: about fifty seven forty three. You know, pretty landslide victory.

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Speaker 1: You know what, what did you make of the results

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Speaker 1: last night?

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Speaker 4: So this is sort of tentatively what we predicted last week.

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Speaker 4: We said it was really hard to tell with some

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Speaker 4: of these elections, especially a smaller referendum, because you actually

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Speaker 4: never know where turnout is going to fall when we're

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Speaker 4: talking about elections. Was seven point nine percent turnout as

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Speaker 4: was the case last year, you just don't know. The

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Speaker 4: money was pretty evenly divided in this race, but it

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Speaker 4: was overwhelmingly from out of state each group. So if

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Speaker 4: you were yes, yes was the conservative side, No? Was

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Speaker 4: the liberal side?

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Speaker 3: Yes was?

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Speaker 4: I think it was like fourteen percent versus thirteen percent

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Speaker 4: in Ohio the contributions in total according to some analyzes,

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Speaker 4: early analyzes. And what's interesting about that, it was essentially

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Speaker 4: the focus of both sides. Both sides were claiming that

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Speaker 4: they were the bulwark against out of state special interests

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Speaker 4: that were trying to dramatically change Ohio, and actually it

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Speaker 4: was dueling out of stage special interests, and as we

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Speaker 4: discussed last week, the conservatives in this case, we're in

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Speaker 4: the unusual position of wanting to change the constitution instead

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Speaker 4: of defending the status quo as conservatives often do. They

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Speaker 4: were actually trying to change the constitution of the state

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Speaker 4: of Ohio. And you know, I'm not saying the motives

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Speaker 4: were pure. I'm saying I think sixty percent is a

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Speaker 4: reasonable threshold, more reasonable threshold than fifty percent to change

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Speaker 4: a constitution, although we probably disagree on that, but clearly,

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Speaker 4: clearly the intention here was not about preserve or you know,

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Speaker 4: shoring up the Ohio Constitution. Otherwise they could have had

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Speaker 4: this vote any other time. It was very specifically, you know,

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Speaker 4: tied to the abortion vote, which is also being We

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Speaker 4: have some video of this that we should we should

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Speaker 4: run as we get into this here, but it was

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Speaker 4: very specifically tied to the question of parents' rights. So

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Speaker 4: it's being broadened, and even the Washington Post has admitted

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Speaker 4: sort of the language of the the that folks are

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Speaker 4: voting on in November could be interpreted in a way

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Speaker 4: that gets into what's taught in classrooms and what teachers

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Speaker 4: are able to do, and what doctors are able to

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Speaker 4: do et cetera. But that was another really interesting aspect

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Speaker 4: of all of this. We can throw a one up

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Speaker 4: on the screen here. Yeah, so that's what Ryan said.

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Speaker 4: Forty three fifty seven. Those are the latest numbers. Just

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Speaker 4: a resounding, resounding victory for the No's and then if

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Speaker 4: we get to a one B there's some more.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So this was Dave Washerman again called it pretty early.

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Speaker 4: People are always refreshing Dave Washerman's Twitter feed on election nights.

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Speaker 4: It didn't take long for this one to get called.

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Speaker 4: I also want to just highlight some of Dave Weigel's analysis.

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Speaker 4: I'm looking at it here in front of me. Some

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Speaker 4: states that some counties where the referendum here actually was

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Speaker 4: running way ahead of Biden, some Trump counties where the

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Speaker 4: referendum successful. He's talking about Athens County. So this is

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Speaker 4: the home to owe you, as Dave points out, is

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Speaker 4: a good example of how Issue one went down. Biden

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Speaker 4: won at fifty seven to forty two. Last year, Tim

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Speaker 4: Ryan and Tim Ryan won at sixty forty with most

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Speaker 4: of the vote in No. One by fifty.

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Speaker 3: Points seventy five to twenty five.

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Speaker 4: And so echoes of Kansas are certainly playing in people's

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Speaker 4: minds in Ohio. A lot of this was inspired by

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Speaker 4: what happened to Michigan recently, and people saw that they

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Speaker 4: passed with like fifty six percent. So the Ohio folks said,

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Speaker 4: let's get that threshold up to sixty percent.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And before we get to how the debate over this

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Speaker 1: played out, I'm curious what you think about what this

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Speaker 1: means for twenty twenty four and Shared Brown. Shared Brown

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Speaker 1: the kind of Democratic senator who is a holdover from

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Speaker 1: when Democrats had real strength in the Ross belt areas

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Speaker 1: of the United States in particular or Ohio. He held

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Speaker 1: on in twenty eighteen, which is a kind of a

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Speaker 1: Democratic wave year. He's up again in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: And I've seen people speculating that, you know, if this

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Speaker 1: port if this portends anything, it's it's good for Shared

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Speaker 1: Brown in the sense that it's getting people to kind of,

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Speaker 1: I guess, rethink their relationship with the Republican Party in Ohio,

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Speaker 1: which has been utterly dominant for the last ten plus years.

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Speaker 5: But I'm curious if you think that it will.

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Speaker 1: Translate, because well, the good news for Share Brown is

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Speaker 1: that you know there will still be you know, incredible

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Speaker 1: turnout in twenty twenty four because of the abortion rights

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Speaker 1: amendment that will be on the November ballots, So you'll

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Speaker 1: have just as Carl Roave put a ban on Game

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Speaker 1: thousand and four on the Ohio ballot, Democrats will probably

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Speaker 1: now benefit from having abortion rights amendments, so their supporters

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Speaker 1: are more likely.

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Speaker 5: To come out, and then they'll likely vote for Share Brown.

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Speaker 1: How are Republicans about Brown at this point on the

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Speaker 1: list of people that they think they might be able

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Speaker 1: to take out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a really good point.

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Speaker 4: I think that is a big blow for a sort

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Speaker 4: of Rovian analysis that you just added, because what we

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Speaker 4: find time and again since Dobbs was decided by the

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Speaker 4: court is that it's not just that voters have a

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Speaker 4: different opinion than people like me. Of course they do,

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Speaker 4: It's not just that is that this is very, very animating,

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Speaker 4: and so that's why the turnout numbers that you pointed

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Speaker 4: to are essential, and that's why Republicans who are hoping

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Speaker 4: to take down Shared Brown were just struck a blow

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Speaker 4: last night. I think as you're getting it here, because

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Speaker 4: when you have an issue that it's not just that

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Speaker 4: people agree with you, but it actually means they're going

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Speaker 4: to be in a college town, as Wigeo is pointing

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Speaker 4: out around Athens, when you have people that are flocking

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Speaker 4: to the polls to the point where you're out running

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Speaker 4: Biden by like twenty five points in the middle of August,

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Speaker 4: that should tell you that you're going to have a real, real,

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Speaker 4: real energy turnout problem. And again, especially in those college

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Speaker 4: towns you're looking at states, Republicans in states like Wisconsin,

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Speaker 4: certainly in states like Ohio, are in worried about the

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Speaker 4: concentration of liberal voters that is so so heavy in

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Speaker 4: those college towns that makes it difficult to take an

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Speaker 4: otherwise red state and actually have a clean red state

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Speaker 4: as they would see it. So that's a huge problem

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Speaker 4: I think for any Republican efforts to tackle shared brown

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Speaker 4: The Susan b Anthony List, which poured their their pack,

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Speaker 4: put a lot of money into supporting the Yes side,

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Speaker 4: so the conservative side here. Their statement last night said

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Speaker 4: it's a sad day for Ohio and a warning for

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Speaker 4: pro life states across the nation. Millions of dollars in

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Speaker 4: liberal dark money flooded Ohio to ensure they have a

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Speaker 4: path to buy their extreme policies in a pro life state. Tragically,

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Speaker 4: some sat on the sideline while while outsider liberal groups

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Speaker 4: poured millions into Ohio and they go on here and

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Speaker 4: talk about parental rights and going on and on the

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Speaker 4: silence of the establishment and business community, and Ohio left

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Speaker 4: the vacuum too large to overcome. That's a really interesting

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Speaker 4: point they're saying. They're they're blaming conservatives for sitting on

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Speaker 4: the sideline of the issue. And Ryan, to the point

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Speaker 4: you just made about shared Brown, this is a huge,

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Speaker 4: huge issue for anti abortion conservatives again like myself, who say,

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Speaker 4: who look at this and you sort of know that politically,

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Speaker 4: you know, this is not the most palatable, energizing, appealing position,

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Speaker 4: and that's why you have business leaders sitting out. But

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Speaker 4: at the same time, groups like Susan B. Anthony say, listen,

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Speaker 4: if we just were able to muster, you know, the

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Speaker 4: the enthusiasm on this issue, it would be a lot closer.

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Speaker 4: And the reason you can't muster the enthusiasm is because

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Speaker 4: I'm I would argue public opinions not there.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and so what they've done instead is fascinating.

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Speaker 1: So let's take let's take a look at you know

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Speaker 1: how the kind of yes side tried to get around

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Speaker 1: the idea that this was about abortion rates, because I

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Speaker 1: think to your point, they're like, they did the polling.

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Speaker 1: They're like, if this, if photeros go into the ballot

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Speaker 1: box and decide that this is a referendumnt abortion rights,

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Speaker 1: we're losing it.

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Speaker 5: So let's see where we can move it.

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Speaker 1: And they moved it over to trans rights, and so

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Speaker 1: play first Mike Pence, and then we can play one

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Speaker 1: of the ads from the Yes campaign. So Mike Pence

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Speaker 1: jumped in former Ohio, former Indiana governor, close enough, right,

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Speaker 1: and here's that's right. Here's here's how he framed his

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Speaker 1: message for why you should vote yes.

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Speaker 7: Hi. This is Mike Pence reminding everyone in the Buckeye

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Speaker 7: State to be sure and get out and vote this

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Speaker 7: Tuesday four. The Ohio Constitution Protection Amendment. You know, for years,

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Speaker 7: left wing interests have abused the constitutional amendment process in

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Speaker 7: Ohio to get their extreme agenda into law. But the

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Speaker 7: Ohio Constitution Protection Amendment will put an end to that.

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Speaker 5: When it passes.

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Speaker 7: You'll need sixty percent of the vote in order to

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Speaker 7: amend the state constitution, or you'll have to get signatures

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Speaker 7: from more people in all eighty eight counties. Now Democrats

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Speaker 7: want to keep the threshold as low as possible so

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Speaker 7: they can pass abortion on demand, so they can advance

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Speaker 7: their extreme gender ideology agenda and take away parents' rights education.

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Speaker 7: Don't let that happen, Ohio. Stop the radical left. Get

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Speaker 7: out and vote for the Ohio Constitution Protection Amendment this Tuesday.

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Speaker 7: Let's save Ohio and after that, we'll save America. In

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: I thought he was going to do like a Howard Dean,

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Speaker 3: like whoo.

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Speaker 1: There you go, and so yeah, let's roll one of

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Speaker 1: the one of the ads. It's pretty typical of the

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Speaker 1: Yes campaign, which picked up on some of those themes.

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Speaker 5: Let's play that here.

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Speaker 8: You promised you keep the bad guys away protect her.

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Speaker 8: Now's your chance. Out of state. Special interests that put

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Speaker 8: trans ideology in classrooms and encourage sex changes for kids

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Speaker 8: are hiding behind slick ads.

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Speaker 1: Don't be fooled.

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Speaker 8: You can keep this madness out of Ohio classrooms and

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Speaker 8: protect your rights as a parent by voting yes on

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Speaker 8: August eighth. Keep your promise to her. Vote yes on

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Speaker 8: August eighth.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a didn't work, right, It didn't work at all.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we're in again, like just important emphasize we're

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Speaker 4: in early August, and that was forty what was up

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Speaker 4: fifty three to I'm sorry, forty three to fifty seven

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Speaker 4: on the side of the on the side of the

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Speaker 4: left here, I mean, that is just a resounding failure

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Speaker 4: of this argument, especially when the money was fairly evenly

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Speaker 4: matched in some of the analyzes I've seen.

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Speaker 3: We actually have this. I'll go to A two first.

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Speaker 3: The early voting.

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Speaker 4: That's another thing that Republicans are really concerned about in

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Speaker 4: states like Ohio.

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Speaker 3: So if we put a two up on the.

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Speaker 4: Screen, the early voting was really up, which is again

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Speaker 4: like Republicans are super concerned about bat harvesting, early turnout,

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Speaker 4: et cetera, et cetera. They seem to not have made

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Speaker 4: much of an impact in this particular election. That's sort

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Speaker 4: of changing that and making that more favorable to conservative

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Speaker 4: issues conservative candidates. You can see the actual language here

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Speaker 4: up on your screen. This is I want to read

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Speaker 4: it. It says the proposed amendment would require that any proposed

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Speaker 4: amendment to the Constitution of the State of Ohio receives

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Speaker 4: the approval of at least sixty percent of eligible voters

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Speaker 4: voting on the proposed amendment, so much clearer, I would say,

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Speaker 4: Ryan than the Kansas referendum. Language that was like actually

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Speaker 4: the subject of some yeah right, and some people on

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Speaker 4: the right blamed it, you know, and said, this was

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Speaker 4: incredibly confusing. The wording here is why we lost, you know,

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Speaker 4: sort of blaming the referees. And there may have been

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Speaker 4: some truth so that it was genuinely very conservative confusing,

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Speaker 4: but I don't think you have that here.

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Speaker 3: And then let's throw a three up on the screen.

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Speaker 4: This is the analysis, that's the early voting one, but

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Speaker 4: a three is the analysis of where the money was

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Speaker 4: coming the out of state money was coming from, which

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Speaker 4: was some some really interesting places. Dicky Line on the

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Speaker 4: side of he's from Illinois.

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Speaker 3: He was on the side of Yes.

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Speaker 4: Big conservative supporter, big conservative donor who funds a lot

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Speaker 4: of this stuff, gave four million of one of the

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Speaker 4: biggest packs four point eight million, so four million of that,

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Speaker 4: basically the entire budget came from one conservative Ills Illinois billionaire.

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Speaker 3: And then on the other hand.

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Speaker 4: The pack for the No side was funded by a

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Speaker 4: lot of people from Silicon Valley and d C eighty

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Speaker 4: five percent of its money from one person. One vote

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Speaker 4: came from out of state, So just a flavor of

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Speaker 4: how you know, both sides trying to cast this as

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Speaker 4: they're the bulwark against out of state special interest. Once again,

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Speaker 4: there was just a this was a nationalized referendum.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think if Democrats can convincingly tell the

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Speaker 1: public that they will actually codify Roe v. Wade into law,

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Speaker 1: if given a majority, I think that this could be

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Speaker 1: a huge vote, you know, voter draw for them in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four for Shared Brown and for the rest

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Speaker 1: of the party. We'll see if they if they can

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Speaker 1: actually convince that and then turn the election into that reference.

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Speaker 5: That's what they've wanted to do. That's what they've tried

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Speaker 5: to do in the past.

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Speaker 1: You'll run on the fear that would be overturned, that

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Speaker 1: that never really worked. But now they can actually promise

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Speaker 1: to recodify it. So we'll see. The Republican primary continues

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Speaker 1: to be kind of boring in some interesting ways. It's

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Speaker 1: like just Trump sitting up there at the top, despite

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Speaker 1: you know, one indictment after the other landing on top

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Speaker 1: of his head. But then underneath him, you've got DeSantis

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Speaker 1: really plummeting.

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Speaker 5: What do we have going on now in the GOP primary.

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Speaker 4: Yes, So yesterday it was announced that Ron DeSantis campaign

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Speaker 4: manager genera pak who ran his his last cubernatorial campaign

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Speaker 4: that everyone sort of heralded as a massive success, I

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Speaker 4: think rightfully. So he increased his numbers from a razor

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Speaker 4: thin margin when he defeated Andrew Gillum to just a

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Speaker 4: resounding level of support in a purple state for a

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Speaker 4: very republican governor, a very sort of you know, unashamed,

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Speaker 4: unabashed conservative governor who was seen as someone being innovative

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Speaker 4: and novel with policy. She is two months into this

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Speaker 4: campaign that had a lot of hype and a ton

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Speaker 4: of money, and she's already.

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Speaker 3: Out the door.

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Speaker 4: So that was announced yesterday, and as The New York

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Speaker 4: Times describes, they say, for the third time in less

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Speaker 4: than a month, Santa's campaign, Desanta's campaign announced a major

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Speaker 4: restock structuring.

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Speaker 3: She was under fire.

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Speaker 4: Basically, she'd never run a presidential campaign, she'd never actually

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Speaker 4: even worked on a presidential campaign. But she was also,

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Speaker 4: as The New York Times goes on to say, quote

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Speaker 4: widely seen as miscast in the campaign manager role, even

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Speaker 4: by those who liked her. She'd come under fire, in

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Speaker 4: particular for building a campaign team so quickly that mister

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Speaker 4: DeSantis was forced to lay off roughly forty percent of

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Speaker 4: his aids only two months into his candidacy. This is

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Speaker 4: a mistake that a lot of really hyped campaigns make.

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Speaker 4: People probably remember, there have been a lot of comparisons

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Speaker 4: with Ron DeSantis and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. There's a

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Speaker 4: real problem in the Walker campaign is that they grew

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Speaker 4: basically too quickly, had to make big cuts, and ended

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Speaker 4: up kind of imploding because of that. But in this case,

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Speaker 4: Rond de Santis has now brought in somebody from his

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Speaker 4: governor's office who also doesn't have presidential election campaign experience,

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Speaker 4: but is seen as a loyalist confidant. That matters a

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Speaker 4: lot to Ronda Santis, obviously, the fact that he brought

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Speaker 4: genera peck in somebody who didn't have presidential experience experience

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Speaker 4: to begin with, and then went with again someone as

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Speaker 4: he's getting rid of someone without a lot of experience

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Speaker 4: and bringing someone in uh with more with not a

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Speaker 4: lot of experience to clean up the mess that the

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Speaker 4: other in experienced person left. You can see there very clearly.

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Speaker 4: And now maybe this explains what we're seeing with b one. Uh,

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Speaker 4: this is really interesting that already Vivek Ramaswami has overtaken

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Speaker 4: Rond De Santis as Better's second choice to win the

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Speaker 4: Republican nomination. So that is from media, and it's really interesting.

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Speaker 4: Betting odds, they say, which some say provide more accurate

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Speaker 4: predictions and polls, have a new GOP candidate behind former

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Speaker 4: President Donald Trump, according to Election Betting Odds. That's a

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Speaker 4: site run by John Stossel and Maxim Lott. They aggregate

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Speaker 4: betting odds from oversea bookmakers and other prediction markets media.

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Speaker 4: It says Trump is the runaway favorite, and the site

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Speaker 4: calculates that he has a seventy percent chance to take

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Speaker 4: the GOP nomination in twenty twenty four, but trailing behind

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Speaker 4: him at nine point six percent is not DeSantis, but

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Speaker 4: Vivek Ramsimami, who leads to Santas at nine point five percent,

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Speaker 4: So again a very very tiny margin. But Ryan, what

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Speaker 4: do you make of all of this as you're watching

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Speaker 4: sort of from the other side, maybe enjoying this schadenfreude

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Speaker 4: a little bit on your end.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, there's a lot of people out there

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Speaker 1: or like Twitter is in real life. But Vivek seems

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Speaker 1: to be a little bit of a Twitter candidate and

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Speaker 1: yet is having some huge success, you know, to be

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Speaker 1: number two with all of these candidates, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: against Rond de Santas, who back what in the fall was,

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Speaker 1: at least according to the people who were doing the gambling,

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Speaker 1: ahead of Donald Trump in those numbers, like he was

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Speaker 1: the he was the he was literally the odds on

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Speaker 1: favorite at one point. So now to be behind Vivak

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Speaker 1: who most people hadn't heard of Ramaswami but at that point.

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Speaker 5: How serious do you think it is?

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Speaker 1: Do you think that if it becomes head to head

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Speaker 1: with Trump, like he becomes the kind of viable alternative,

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Speaker 1: that he just gets completely destroyed like a you know,

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Speaker 1: the asteroid coming through the atmosphere. Or do you think

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Speaker 1: that there's some there's some there there that he has

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Speaker 1: successfully been able to hold on to, you know, build

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Speaker 1: support within kind of pro Trump folks while also winning

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Speaker 1: over the other smaller factions that that seems to be

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Speaker 1: his real skill.

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Speaker 4: Well, I was gonna say, I think that's exactly right,

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Speaker 4: because I think Vveck has handled the Trump question much

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Speaker 4: better than Rond de Santis has and that's been you know,

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Speaker 4: from the right, a lot of people look at the

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Speaker 4: Dessantas campaign and say, what is going on. They feel

440
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 4: as though he's sort of in this tug of war.

441
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 4: And this is includes myself between the sort of elite

442
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 4: GOP consultant class and you know, some people who are

443
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 4: like New Right that he brought into the campaign. And

444
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 4: when you're in that tug of war, it seems like

445
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 4: the elite GEOP consultant class has one out time and

446
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 4: time and again on this, especially the question of Trump,

447
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 4: and he just hasn't. It seems to people like he's

448
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 4: really botched that the answers about Trump questions, answers on

449
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 4: Trump questions time and time and again, and that he

450
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 4: is sort of undermining Trump's appeal. Rather than saying I

451
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 4: understand Trump's appeal or conveying that he really understands Trump's appeal,

452
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 4: he just is going to you know, he thinks he's

453
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 4: right for this particular moment. There have been way more

454
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 4: attacks on Trump, his character, etcetera, etcetera than a lot

455
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 4: of people on the right have felt comfortable with because

456
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 4: they don't think that's the way to win over that

457
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 4: persuadable thirty seven percent, as the New York Times we

458
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 4: talked about last week puts it, of people who are

459
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 4: neither hardcore Trump or hardcore anti Trump. The way to

460
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 4: win over those thirty seven is not to just sort

461
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 4: of be like straight Nikki Hayley or straight Mike Pence,

462
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,120
Speaker 4: but to be sort of more of a middle ground.

463
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 4: And the thing I was going to turn back around

464
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,479
Speaker 4: to you is just say, this reminds me so much

465
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 4: of twenty twelve potential for a twenty twelve Remember when

466
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 4: you would get a surge in polling for Michelle Bachman,

467
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 4: Herman Kine and some of these sort of what's the

468
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 4: right word for it, not fringe, but like long shot candidates,

469
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 4: people who are not traditional eccentric or even people who

470
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,400
Speaker 4: are not traditional presidential candidates. So Michelle Bachman are representative

471
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,479
Speaker 4: at the time. And then Herman Kain a businessman.

472
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 3: At the time. Maybe that was prescient. Yes, what did

473
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 3: he say?

474
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 4: It was Becky Becky, Becky Stanstan. That's another Herman Kain classic.

475
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 4: But they would have these like sugar highs in polling

476
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 4: because they had a really good answer to a question

477
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 4: or a really good Fox hit. It gave a really

478
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 4: good speech, and it would just it was a carousel.

479
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 3: They would trade off.

480
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 4: And I don't know if that's what's going to happen

481
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 4: with Vivek and Tim Scott and who's had some decent

482
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 4: polling numbers. But if Trump is staying dominant up at

483
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 4: the top, maybe you get a carousel of sugar highs

484
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 4: from other candidates like twenty twelve, and just ultimately nobody's

485
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 4: over able to overtake him.

486
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 1: Right. The difference between the difference between twenty twelve and

487
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: the day being that this time they're all competing just

488
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: for second place, whereas that time you had Herman Kane

489
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 1: actually surging to the very top for a little while.

490
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: I'm curious for your take on what's going to happen

491
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 1: with these Republican elites. And one thing I love about

492
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 1: the show is I really have no idea what the answer.

493
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 5: Is this question.

494
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 1: But like I remember, back in twenty sixteen, when Bernie

495
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 1: Sanders was challenging the Clinton machine, he couldn't hire anybody

496
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 1: like basically nobody you know who wanted a job in

497
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 1: democratic politics in the future would work against the Clintons,

498
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 1: and that actually helped him a lot, because then it

499
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 1: ended up bringing in lots of people from outside of

500
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 1: kind of Washington politics and gave him a kind of

501
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: livelier campaign as a result.

502
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 5: But watching the DeSantis.

503
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: World people just go to all out war with the

504
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: Trump world people like I haven't followed it that closely,

505
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: but it's just such a hot war you just can't,

506
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 1: you know, you can't avoid seeing it. And now that

507
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: they seem to have been routed so badly, like, are

508
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,400
Speaker 1: there going to be consequences for them the same way

509
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 1: there would have been consequences for the Democratic staffers who

510
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 1: worked against the Clinton machine, like or is the Republican

511
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: kind of miliuse so kind of my kind of money

512
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 1: at this point that you can kind of move around

513
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: different worlds without running into problems. What's what's your sense

514
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 1: of how damaged some of these DESSANTUS operatives are.

515
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 4: That's a really good question, because Donald Trump is sort

516
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:01,360
Speaker 4: of notoriously fickle, and so are his loyal on these issues,

517
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 4: and then sometimes not so like for really high profile

518
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 4: people if you can it's he's shown that you can

519
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 4: get back on his good side if you sort of

520
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,679
Speaker 4: say the right things. But then for the lower profile people,

521
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 4: they were, you know, during his administration actually scanning people's

522
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 4: Twitter feeds back like three years to see if they

523
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 4: had ever liked something that was negative against Donald Trump

524
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 4: when they were vetting people for jobs in his administration.

525
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 4: So I think it's going to be a mixed bag,

526
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 4: but it's a really interesting question for the Also another reason,

527
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 4: which is we talked about DeSantis' economic campaign last week

528
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 4: that had some populist rhetoric in it, And one thing

529
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 4: I keep thinking about was the twenty twenty Democratic primary,

530
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 4: when you had just about every candidate, no matter how

531
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 4: much of corporate shills, they were swearing off corporate pack money.

532
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 4: So obviously it was sort of a gesture. But Bernie

533
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 4: really benefited because those elite Democratic consultants that were chirping

534
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 4: in his ear were not coming from large dollar donors

535
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 4: like they didn't They weren't conveying the messages that they

536
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 4: were hearing from large dollar donors, and that there are

537
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 4: all kinds of dysantist donors that have been talking to

538
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 4: the press about how disappointed in his campaign they are,

539
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 4: and in some ways, for instance, because he's been very

540
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 4: conservative on the issue of abortion, because of you know,

541
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 4: what one billionaire said was concerning to him with quote

542
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 4: book bands, which I would argue as a false narrative.

543
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 4: But either way, they're criticizing him essentially from the center

544
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 4: or closer to the center.

545
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 3: Left than from the right.

546
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 4: And if you were relying more on small dollar donors

547
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 4: in the way that Donald Trump has, in the way

548
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 4: that Bernie Sanders has, and if you swear off corporate

549
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 4: pack money, you're really able, I think, to be free

550
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 4: not just from the consultants, but from the bosses of

551
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 4: the consultants and the friends of the consultants who are

552
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 4: are constantly tripping in your ear and I think giving

553
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 4: you bad advice, and whether there will be consequences is

554
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 4: a huge like, there are huge implications if there's a

555
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:52,479
Speaker 4: Republican in the White House going forward as to how

556
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 4: that plays out. At the same time, Donald Trump had

557
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 4: a horribly difficult time staffing his administration because they were

558
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 4: so picky in some cases. I don't know if there's

559
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 4: a learning curve if there's a second administration on that,

560
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 4: it's a good question.

561
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: Well, the White House, meanwhile, is trying to do something

562
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,959
Speaker 1: actually decent for the working class. So let's give some

563
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 1: credit where it's due and talk about that a little bit.

564
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 5: If we can put up.

565
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: This great piece from Lee Harris over in the Prospect,

566
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: people can go read.

567
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 5: That for all of all the details. And that's one,

568
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 5: she writes.

569
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 1: President Joe Biden is set to restore a New Deal

570
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 1: labor rule in what could be the most significant change

571
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 1: the construction worker pay since the rule was gutted in

572
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties. The Department of Labor is preparing to

573
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: issue a final rule tomorrow on the Davis Bacon Act,

574
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,479
Speaker 1: which sets a wage floor for construction workers on public

575
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 1: works projects. Davis Bacon is often known as a quote

576
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 1: prevailing wage as it refers to the going rate for

577
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 1: labors in a given area.

578
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 5: Era. And so this is a New Deal era.

579
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: This is you know, this is an FDR implemented law

580
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: that says that, look, if the public is going to

581
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 1: be financing this infrastructure project, then the public one.

582
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 5: Workers to be paid a fair wage.

583
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 1: And there and there have then been fights over the

584
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: definition of fair, over the definition of prevailing ever since then.

585
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: In the nineteen eighties, at the height of the kind

586
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: of neoliberal pushback against the New Deal era, they redefined

587
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: what it meant to be a prevailing wage. We can

588
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: get you can You can get wonky with the details,

589
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 1: but the details aren't what matters. The side of the

590
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 1: construction companies wants the prevailing wage to be defined as

591
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 1: something that's lower. The side of the unions and the

592
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 1: side of the workers wants prevailing wage to be calculated

593
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 1: in a way that makes the wages higher. And so

594
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 1: the White House is putting forward a rule that would

595
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 1: make those wages higher. Already, the Alliance of Construction Companies

596
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: is saying that they're going to sue immediately to try

597
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: to stop this law. What do you make of the

598
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: Biden administration's willingness to kind of run up against the

599
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 1: construction companies here and try to pick this fight.

600
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I was going to ask you, because Biden

601
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 4: has a really mixed record on labor. On the one hand,

602
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 4: his Department of Labor is taking steps like this, and

603
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 4: on the other hand, he botches the railway negotiations, and

604
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 4: you know, it isn't it doesn't seem serious about you know,

605
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 4: some really big questions at places like Amazon, or hasn't

606
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 4: taken the steps that I think a lot of people

607
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 4: would expect him to.

608
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 3: So is this a sign that in the this.

609
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 4: Type of labor market where there has been this huge

610
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 4: surge in organizing that you think going forward, Biden has

611
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 4: sort of decided he has to come down more firmly

612
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 4: on the side of labor or is it just again

613
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 4: part of a mixed bag.

614
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's a push and pull going on

615
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: inside the administration. The Democratic Party is not by any

616
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: stretch monolithically in support of workers, but there is a

617
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 1: strong union coaled you know, union force that gets behind

618
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party and pushes them on these issues. And

619
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 1: you also have you know a lot of White House

620
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: economic advisors today who came up kind of through labor

621
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 1: funded economic think tanks and have always been associated with

622
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 1: kind of pro worker policies. And so the economists who

623
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: work for him now are just kind of fundamentally different

624
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: than the economists like Larry Summers who were hired during

625
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: the tim geiten Larry Summers who were hired during the

626
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 1: Obama era. So in that sense, you do have are

627
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 1: more of a pro labor event. At least labor has

628
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: a voice in the room. RAMA Manual, for instance, when

629
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: they were debating whether or not to kind of bail

630
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: out Detroit. If you remember after the financial crisis, Rama

631
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: Manuel said, f the uaw like that that was his

632
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: contribution in that meeting.

633
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 5: Just screw them, you know.

634
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 1: Fortunately for Obama and for Detroit, they didn't take raw

635
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 1: manuals advice that time. And I actually think side note

636
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: that that's why Obama did so well in the Midwest

637
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: in twenty twelve, because he got a lot of credit

638
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 1: for bailing out Detroit, whereas Romney had published that that

639
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 1: kind of infamous op ed in the Wall Street Journal

640
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 1: that said, let Detroit go bankrupt twenty sixteen, you didn't

641
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: have that, and so Hillary Clinton gets beaten in the Midwest.

642
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: But that's that's sort of a side note, but not

643
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 1: really because it is kind of, I think fundamental to

644
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: how Democrats kind of see themselves.

645
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 5: You know, Biden keeps saying that he wants to be the.

646
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: Most pro labor, you know, the most pro union president

647
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: in American history. That wouldn't be very hard at all,

648
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: Like we basically haven't had one ever. So if you're

649
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 1: even neutral on labor, that kind of makes you the

650
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 1: best in American history. And I think a lot of

651
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: his advisors who are pro labor can use that rhetoric

652
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: to say, look, you know, we need to do this,

653
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: and there's so much money, you know, coming down the pipe.

654
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: Now where today is the one year anniversary of the

655
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: CHIPS Act. We've got obviously that big infrastructure Built Inflation

656
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 1: Reduction Act has enormous amounts of tax credits and public

657
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: spending going toward infrastructure development. I think the fact spending

658
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 1: on factory development is something like doubled in the last

659
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: couple of years.

660
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 5: It's huge now, doubled from pretty low rate.

661
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 1: But that means that there's a lot of room to

662
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 1: force work, to force companies to pay more to workers,

663
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 1: and so I think, you know they're going to go

664
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 1: for it, but you know, we'll see if it gets

665
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: tied up in court the entire time.

666
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:26,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it certainly will.

667
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 4: But it has landed with a thud, I think on

668
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 4: the right, which is also very interesting. I can imagine

669
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 4: just about ten fifteen years ago, in fact, that I'm

670
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,720
Speaker 4: reading right here from a Kevin Brady, a Joint Economic

671
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:41,800
Speaker 4: Committee report on Davis Bacon that is just headlined highway

672
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 4: robbery from twenty eleven. This would have had Republicans up

673
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 4: in arms, taking to the media and talking about the

674
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 4: Biden administration's extremism and cozy relationship with labor, because labor

675
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 4: was not seen in the same light back then that

676
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 4: it is now, and especially on the right, this is

677
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 4: something that Republicans consistently say, Like if you look at

678
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 4: the conservative criticism of Davis Bacon, it's typically that it

679
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 4: increases costs for companies, and then Kevin Brady actually in

680
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 4: this report said it looks like a pretty weak argument too,

681
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 4: by the way, as I'm looking back on it, that

682
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 4: it does decrease employment. So by repealing Davis Bacon and

683
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 4: getting rid of prevailing wage, you increase jobs, which obviously

684
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 4: if costs are decreased, which I'm sure that they are

685
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 4: when that happens, I don't think anyone is going to

686
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 4: dispute that the costs are going up when you have

687
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 4: to pay people more. That's essentially the obvious math there.

688
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 4: But when you have that, he's saying it actually decreases,

689
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 4: and conservatives will say it decreases the level of people

690
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 4: that are actually employed. But this is a really tight

691
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 4: labor market, So I don't know how seriously that argument

692
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 4: is going to be taken by people on the right,

693
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 4: especially as their attitudes towards organized labor are shifting. So

694
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 4: I also found it pretty interesting that this got very

695
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 4: little pick despite it being a fairly consequential decision from

696
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 4: the Biden administration. It didn't really have people running to Twitter,

697
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 4: running to people on the right, Republicans running to Twitter.

698
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 4: But industry does fund some of those pro business think tanks,

699
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 4: and industry is pretty upset about this, as you can imagine,

700
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 4: and that's where it will be tied up in court.

701
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 4: So maybe that will be amplified in the future, but

702
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 4: as of now, I just sort of found that interesting,

703
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 4: and it will be interesting going forward, as this issue,

704
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 4: again is very consequential, as you do have the pressure

705
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 4: coming from industry, on think tanks, on special interest groups

706
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 4: to fight this where Republican politicians will land.

707
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 1: And you made a great point that these building trades members,

708
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:45,919
Speaker 1: these union members, those are mostly Trump voters at this point. Yes,

709
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:50,399
Speaker 1: and so in some ways it's good for workers when

710
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: they have both parties who are kind of now looking

711
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 1: out for their interests, because, like you said, in the past,

712
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: Democrats would do this and Republicans would go to war

713
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: against it. Now Democrats do it and Republicans are like, H,

714
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 1: don't like this because all of our donors say it's

715
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 1: not good, but all of our voters say it is good.

716
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 1: So maybe we'll just step back and see it, you know,

717
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 1: see how this plays out in the courts.

718
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 5: And that's kind of what makes.

719
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 1: Me nervous about this Republican coalition is that they leave

720
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 1: a lot of the dirty work to the courts. And

721
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: whereas the Republican politicians say say, you know, hey, I'm

722
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 1: for you.

723
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 5: Know, higher prevailing wages for folks.

724
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,280
Speaker 1: I remember I spoke to a bunch of building trades

725
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: union leaders back in twenty nineteen at a conference, and

726
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 1: I was asking them afterwards where how their members were

727
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 1: feeling about Trump and the upcoming election, And every single

728
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 1: one of them, no matter what, no matter what the

729
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: building trade was specifically, they're like, oh, heavily Trump, like,

730
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 1: you know, sixty seventy, even upwards of.

731
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 5: Eighty percent Trump.

732
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 1: They all, they all had seen wage increases over the

733
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 1: last couple of years, and a lot of them were

734
00:37:56,040 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 1: crediting kind of Trump's rhetoric around wayes and around the

735
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 1: FED and also around immigration, which I think is incorrect,

736
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: but I understand like why they're you know, they're seeing him,

737
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 1: you know, hammer on about immigration. Then they're seeing their

738
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 1: wages go up, and like, oh, maybe this is going

739
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 1: on here. But if Biden can't find the megaphone that

740
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 1: Trump had and let people know that the reason that

741
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:22,399
Speaker 1: a reason they're getting increases in their wages is because

742
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 1: of what Democrats are doing for them, then they're not

743
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 1: gonna They're not gonna end up getting credit for that.

744
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 5: So we'll, you know, we'll see how that shakes out.

745
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,720
Speaker 1: But whoever gets credit, it's a good thing when workers

746
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: are getting paid more for the.

747
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 5: Work they're doing well.

748
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 4: And to your point about special interests versus politicians, a

749
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 4: lot of those same people who are supporting Trump also

750
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 4: probably ended up being Ron Johnson voters ended up being

751
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 4: JD Vance voters. So it does put a different for

752
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 4: different reasons, but it does put a different kind of

753
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 4: pressure on the Republican Party versus the special interest apparatus.

754
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 4: And one huge thing for the conservative movement to reckon

755
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 4: with is how pro industry, how pro business. A lot

756
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 4: of those judges are who have been on benches and

757
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,760
Speaker 4: celebrated by the conservative movement for being installed on benches

758
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 4: because they had, you know, at the time, were what

759
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 4: seemed like the favorable sort of approach towards free markets,

760
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 4: towards for instance, abortion whatever it is, and are now

761
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,760
Speaker 4: going to be inclined to rule in certain antitrust cases,

762
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 4: tech cases, or different cases in ways that may not

763
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 4: be favorable to those voters. Let's move on to another

764
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 4: economic topic, which is the sort of troubling levels of

765
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 4: personal debt that we're seeing. We can go ahead and

766
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 4: throw d one up on the screen. This is from

767
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 4: CNN Business. More Americans are tapping their four oh one

768
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 4: K accounts because of financial distress, according to Bank of

769
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 4: America data released Tuesday. So Americans, as the CNN headline says,

770
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 4: are pulling money out of their K plans at an

771
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 4: alarming rate. Here are the specifics. The number of people

772
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 4: who made a hardship withdrawal during the second quarter surge

773
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 4: from the first three months of the year to fifteen

774
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 4: nine hundred and fifty, which is an increase of thirty

775
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,919
Speaker 4: six percent from the second quarter of twenty twenty two,

776
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 4: according to Bank of America's analysis of clients employee benefit programs,

777
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 4: which are comprised of more than four million planned participants

778
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 4: and expert that CNN quotes cause that quote pretty troubling.

779
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 4: You understand why people do that in the heat of

780
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 4: the moment, but the opportunity costs on that are really

781
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 4: really high over time. I would also point out numbers

782
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 4: that show people's auto mortgages are going from debt to

783
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 4: delinquency at a really surprising rate that has spiked over

784
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 4: the last quarter and just seems to keep going up.

785
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 4: It's actually different than what we're seeing debt to delinquency

786
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 4: on mortgages.

787
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 3: But I think when you.

788
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 4: Put this all together, you're looking at the picture of

789
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 4: a lot of people having borrowed a good chunk of

790
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,879
Speaker 4: money in the last couple of years. And it's one

791
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 4: thing if people are borrowing that money and like with

792
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 4: the mortgage numbers, are are not, you know, then tipping

793
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 4: into delinquency. But if they are, especially in something like

794
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 4: auto loans, which is a lower level, that is that

795
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 4: is pretty concerning. I do agree, Ryan, that is a

796
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 4: little troubling.

797
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:11,320
Speaker 5: It's very troubling.

798
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: And to put to put it in perspective, if in

799
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, interest rates, you know, collapse down to for

800
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 1: home for mortgages under four percent and for a lot

801
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 1: of people under three percent, and you saw record numbers

802
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:30,399
Speaker 1: of refinances and so Refinancing often does two things.

803
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 5: You know.

804
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 1: It on the one hand, it lowers your It lowers

805
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 1: your payment that you have every every month and so

806
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: that you have, you know, as long as your pay

807
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 1: stays the same, you're taking a little bit more home

808
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 1: every every month after you've paid your mortgage. But a

809
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 1: lot of people then take a little bit out also

810
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: say like the bank will tell you, hey, look, if

811
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 1: you can add you know, twenty five thousand dollars to

812
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 1: your principle over the next thirty years, it will just

813
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,359
Speaker 1: give you the check for twenty five thousand, and you're

814
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: still paying less a month because your interest rate was

815
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:00,359
Speaker 1: at you know, five percent now it's at two point

816
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 1: seventy five percent, and millions of people around the country

817
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 1: you know, refinanced and took that money out. Then you

818
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 1: had the Cares Act in March twenty twenty, which was

819
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 1: kicked what six hundred dollars checks to everybody. Then you

820
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 1: had the note, well, you had twelve hundred dollars checks,

821
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 1: six hundred dollars check, fourteen hundred dollars checks.

822
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:21,839
Speaker 5: You know.

823
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 1: Ultimately, you know, you had in January twenty twenty one,

824
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 1: people getting a family for got a fifty four hundred

825
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 1: dollars check if they had, you know, two dependents. That's fine,

826
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 1: that's a that's an enormous amount of money to just

827
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: land in your bank account. And the combination of I

828
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: think all of those refinancings plus all of those direct checks,

829
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 1: plus you know, the unemployment benefits that you're getting extra

830
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: six hundred dollars a month, the amount of savings that

831
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 1: people had had never been higher.

832
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 5: Some of this article notes that the number of.

833
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:55,719
Speaker 1: People who I don't know, if we have this one,

834
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: I think it might be our second element. Number of

835
00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 1: people who can afford a four hundred dollars hit is

836
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 1: back down to about sixty two percent at this point.

837
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 5: In twenty twenty one, Yeah, d three, it was it

838
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:08,280
Speaker 5: was sixty eight percent.

839
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: Could swing a you know, you want it to be

840
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 1: one hundred percent, Like you want everyone to be able

841
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 1: to swing a four hundred dollars hit that they get.

842
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 1: But in twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, that number was

843
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,280
Speaker 1: going up, so at least it's going in the right direction.

844
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: That number is coming down now, and so we've exhausted

845
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: the refinancing, We've done all the checks, and so now

846
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 1: people are dipping into their four oh one k's. They're

847
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: borrowing from their workers. I mean they're borrowing from their workplaces.

848
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 1: Now you still you still did see according to this reporting,

849
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 1: just as many people adding money adding more money to

850
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: their four to one case than we're reducing the contributions

851
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 1: to their four o one case.

852
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 5: So it's not like everybody is in this situation.

853
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 1: But I do think that there's a strain on the

854
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:56,760
Speaker 1: system that if it hits a shock, there just isn't

855
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 1: the cushioning, and you're going to have enormous number of

856
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 1: people who need this music to keep playing before they're

857
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 1: going to lose this game.

858
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 3: So this is a really interesting point.

859
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 4: Even if we just go back to that simple question

860
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 4: of mortgages, mortgage delinquency versus autodelinquency. Who's more likely to

861
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 4: have a mortgage versus who's more likely to have an

862
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 4: auto loan. If you have a mortgage, you're probably in

863
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 4: a different socioeconomic strata on average than the average person

864
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 4: with car loans. That would be my guess, And I

865
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 4: think that speaks to what you're talking about, which is

866
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:32,360
Speaker 4: our economy just going into completely different directions.

867
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 3: We see this with the stock market.

868
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 4: We saw it with the stock market during COVID and

869
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 4: right now, if we put a D two up on

870
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 4: the screen, this is credit card debt. So this is

871
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 4: CNN's credit card Sannan's report on credit card debt. They're

872
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 4: saying since twenty nineteen, household debt balances have increased by

873
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 4: nearly three trillion, according to the New York Fed from

874
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 4: the first quarter of twenty twenty three, and a lot

875
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 4: of that is coming from credit card debt of the

876
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 4: first time. On Tuesday, the New York Fed reported that

877
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,800
Speaker 4: US households credit card debt quote surpassed the one trillion

878
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 4: mark for the first time ever. That's a forty five

879
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:06,320
Speaker 4: billion dollar increase in credit card debt. It's driving overall

880
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 4: household debt to levels levels to seventeen point six trillion

881
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 4: at the end of the second quarter. And then you

882
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:16,320
Speaker 4: add on top of that that federal student loan payments

883
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 4: are resuming in October.

884
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 3: So if this is bad now.

885
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 4: Imagine how much how much worse it's going to get

886
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 4: in October. And again, an expert CNND quote says, there's

887
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 4: only so much hard debt that people can handle before

888
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,399
Speaker 4: delinquencies really strike. Ultimately, just have a lot of people

889
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 4: who are doing okay now, but it wouldn't take a

890
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 4: whole lot for them to find themselves in a pretty

891
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 4: sticky situation financially, whether that is a medical emergency, job loss,

892
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:42,240
Speaker 4: or even just student loan payments. Restarting and the student

893
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 4: loan payment pause is another example of how it may

894
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 4: feel like the pandemic for us is in the rearview mirror,

895
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 4: but economically, that pandemic era policy is very much still

896
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 4: with us in the economy, and the pandemic era economy

897
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 4: you've seen tightening, for instance, in media in Hollywood in

898
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 4: those space is from the pandemic.

899
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 3: Again, we talked about a sugar high.

900
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 4: There was a lot of that, There was a lot

901
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:08,319
Speaker 4: of growth, and right now some of that. You know,

902
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 4: the FED is really eager that they to say that

903
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 4: looks like we're going to have the soft landing.

904
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 3: But indications like this.

905
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 4: That are sort of below the surface, the beneath that

906
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 4: you see the tip of the iceberg and then it's

907
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 4: the giant thing underneath the water, I think that is

908
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 4: a lot more concerning than they will admit. Ryan that

909
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 4: then Janet Yellen or Jamie Diamond will admit.

910
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:34,720
Speaker 1: Because car loan delinquencies are considered by economists and people

911
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 1: with common sense to be a huge uh you know,

912
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 1: red siren blaring because if you think about it, you're

913
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 1: in the number of as as it becomes harder for

914
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 1: you to pay your bills. Uh, the car is the

915
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: main thing that you know that you continue to make

916
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 1: sure that you're paying because you need your car for everything.

917
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 1: You need your car to get to work most importantly,

918
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,879
Speaker 1: and so if you don't have that, uh, you're you're

919
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:01,959
Speaker 1: you're set back. And so studies show, and like I said,

920
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 1: common sense shows that when people have to decide, you know,

921
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 1: what to pay and what not to pay, uh, they're there.

922
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: They always want to pay that car, that car loan

923
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 1: off because they do not want that car repossessed. And

924
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,359
Speaker 1: so that if they're not paying those loans, and if

925
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:21,400
Speaker 1: delinquencies are rising, that means they've already exhausted all the

926
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 1: other things that they can move around and couldn't and

927
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 1: couldn't pay for the time being. And so they're you know,

928
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 1: once you're not paying, Once you're not paying your car loan,

929
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 1: unless you've got two or three cars, Uh, then you

930
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 1: know you're you're you're really facing a significant trouble.

931
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 5: If you have two or three cars, you know, you're

932
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 5: just gonna you're.

933
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 1: Gonna sell them and you're not gonna You're not gonna

934
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 1: let them get repossessed. So that's why people economists really

935
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 1: worry when they see car delinquencies starting to starting to

936
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 1: tick up.

937
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 3: Last question, Ryan is if you were Janet Yellen.

938
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 4: Put put yourself in Danny Yellen's shoes, Ryan, and you're

939
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 4: looking at these numbers, how does that influence your decisions

940
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 4: on interest rates?

941
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:02,839
Speaker 1: Well, well, I mean I think you well, you mean

942
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 1: you mean the FED chair that she used to be

943
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 1: the FED chair.

944
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, she did a good job of I.

945
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 1: Think of keeping rates really low for very a very

946
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:13,600
Speaker 1: long time.

947
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 4: You know.

948
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 1: I think Trump even could have kept her on and

949
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 1: she would have would have kept doing it. He can

950
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 1: steady replaced her with Pale, who then kept rates really low.

951
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 1: But I think if your pal you do have to

952
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 1: be and I think if you're yelling, because I think

953
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 1: you do have a good question. Because she is still

954
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 1: responsible for the economy, she should be browbeating Palell to

955
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:35,360
Speaker 1: say okay, enough, like good job. You know, you squeezed

956
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:39,240
Speaker 1: Silicon Valley. You know, a bunch of those clowns lost

957
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 1: their shirts, which they should have because they were just

958
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:41,720
Speaker 1: wasting money.

959
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 5: Uh.

960
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 1: You know, now we need to focus on making sure

961
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 1: that people uh don't get hit with the kind of shock,

962
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 1: especially given the fact that student loan payments are are

963
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 1: are are coming back in October that it sends us

964
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 1: into a tailspin, like do not over do not overcorrect here,

965
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 1: you know, so you know, slowed down, and you know,

966
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 1: and maybe if you need to ease, do something a

967
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:11,400
Speaker 1: little more targeted rather than just opening up the spigot

968
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:13,479
Speaker 1: and sending the money straight to Silicon Valley next time.

969
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, And Yellen, to your point, Ryan had a

970
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 4: sort of different I guess approach than Jerome Powell. And

971
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:22,879
Speaker 4: if Yellen had been in a position rather than Jerome

972
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:24,760
Speaker 4: Powell might have been a different question. But in terms

973
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 4: of how Powell as is seen in the administration, is

974
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 4: treated by the administration, as directed by the administration, it's

975
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:34,120
Speaker 4: just I'm very curious to see because these indications have

976
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 4: been lingering, but as they are sort of heightened.

977
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 3: I mean, these are to your point, like red signs.

978
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 4: These are those are like glaring, glaring problems that are

979
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 4: demanding I think probably a little bit more honesty.

980
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, And he wanted to see the number of job

981
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 1: openings reduced. He wanted to see wages going down. He

982
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 1: was very clear in public about that. And you know,

983
00:49:59,880 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 1: you you are seeing the number of jobs added to

984
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 1: the economy rising at a lower rate.

985
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:07,520
Speaker 5: So you should just declare victory and.

986
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 1: You know, stop trying to strangle the economy, is what

987
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 1: I would tell him.

988
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:17,239
Speaker 4: So before we started filming today, Ryan revealed some personal

989
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 4: knowledge of boating brawls. And we're going to talk now

990
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 4: about the one out of Montgomery, Alabama. I think probably

991
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 4: the best thing to do is just start by playing

992
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 4: some of these clips.

993
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,240
Speaker 3: Let's throw you one up on the screen.

994
00:50:30,280 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 6: Here they long crossing.

995
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:11,400
Speaker 3: That's what swimming his hands?

996
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 6: O yah, some boy could have left that one. You

997
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 6: look that your boy?

998
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 3: Get up down, y'all buck, Get off down, y'all buck.

999
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:30,640
Speaker 1: No girl.

1000
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:34,399
Speaker 6: S they what's up?

1001
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 3: I was all miserable.

1002
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 5: YOA whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa?

1003
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:52,880
Speaker 6: They did? Look out they did, whoa they did? Whoa?

1004
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:58,359
Speaker 6: Oh ha, whoa.

1005
00:51:58,880 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 1: That was the game.

1006
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,319
Speaker 4: It's a real spectator sport, and we can I think

1007
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 4: it's pretty easy for everyone to understand why those videos

1008
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 4: have gone massively viral. As the Montgomery Advertiser put it,

1009
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 4: they have captivated the attention of the nation. The latest

1010
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:16,000
Speaker 4: news on this is that three men are facing charges.

1011
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 4: So that we have a forty eight year old white male,

1012
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:21,000
Speaker 4: Richard Roberts, who's facing two warrants for assault in the

1013
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 4: third degree, twenty three year old white male Alan Todd

1014
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:26,400
Speaker 4: one warrant for assaults in the third degree, and Zachary Shipman,

1015
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 4: a twenty five year old white male, facing one warrant

1016
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:29,920
Speaker 4: for assaults in the third degree.

1017
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:31,160
Speaker 3: More context here.

1018
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 4: This is from Saturday evening, so last Saturday, when, as

1019
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,320
Speaker 4: the Montgomery Advertiser puts it, Damian Pickett, the co captain

1020
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:41,240
Speaker 4: of the Harriet two, asked the operators of a private

1021
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:44,720
Speaker 4: boat that was docked in its space to move, getting

1022
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 4: only a quote obscene gestures and quote taunting in response.

1023
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 4: Dozens of cell phone videos posted to social media were

1024
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:54,040
Speaker 4: recorded by the passengers aboard the Harriet two riverboat, which

1025
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 4: was waiting to dock with two hundred and twenty seven

1026
00:52:56,680 --> 00:53:00,319
Speaker 4: people on board for more than forty minutes, as well

1027
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:00,960
Speaker 4: as people.

1028
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:01,760
Speaker 3: On the shore.

1029
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:06,800
Speaker 4: So after a long Saturday spent you know, on the river, drinking,

1030
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 4: having fun. It sounds like Ryan this escalated very quickly.

1031
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think the ship is named after Harriet Tubman,

1032
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 1: which is right, which is which is pretty great. These guys, yes,

1033
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:32,320
Speaker 1: they clearly were wasted, sunburnt, rednecks who just felt like

1034
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 1: because they had the numbers on one guy, that they

1035
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 1: were just gonna kind of, you know.

1036
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 5: Show them how tough they were.

1037
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:42,360
Speaker 1: And I don't know if we saw it in that footage,

1038
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 1: but the kid and he turned to a sixteen year

1039
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 1: old kid who was swimming over to the dock.

1040
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 5: Yes, just brings a tear to your eye.

1041
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 1: It's just it's just the most glorious symbol of solidarity

1042
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:55,839
Speaker 1: that you can ever see.

1043
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,239
Speaker 5: Like he sees that somebody needs help, he dives into

1044
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 5: the water. That's those are the heroes that we need

1045
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,480
Speaker 5: today now. And there you go.

1046
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:09,080
Speaker 1: In in Phil in Phil Lewis's tweet there he mentioned

1047
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 1: that Reggie Gray, who is the man willing to share,

1048
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:16,799
Speaker 1: uh you know, is being asked to contact police. I'm

1049
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,800
Speaker 1: not defending you know, wielding shares at people, but I

1050
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 1: would advise Regie Gray he does not have to contact

1051
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 1: the police. You know, you're not You're not required to

1052
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,160
Speaker 1: turn your turn yourself in if his name is even

1053
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 1: Reggie Gray. So it has been you know, TikTok has really,

1054
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:37,800
Speaker 1: you know, kind of gloriously covered this because you're getting,

1055
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:41,239
Speaker 1: you know, just absolutely everybody's got their take that they're

1056
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 1: putting out there, and everybody seems to agree, and how

1057
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 1: could they not? Like these these these dudes bullied this

1058
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:50,839
Speaker 1: one guy who was just doing his job and then

1059
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:51,239
Speaker 1: they got.

1060
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:53,600
Speaker 5: Whooped and what you know, what what more can you

1061
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 5: ask for?

1062
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:57,279
Speaker 1: And the irony, of course, is that we we've gone

1063
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 1: through this whole kind of contra versy over that Jason

1064
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 1: al Dean song, and these dudes did try that in

1065
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 1: a small town, all that small, and you know they

1066
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 1: found out what what did you think?

1067
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1068
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:15,319
Speaker 4: Well, the debate over what constitutes a small town has

1069
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 4: been actually really interesting too, because Montgomery is certain probably

1070
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 4: probably seen by a lot of people who look at,

1071
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,920
Speaker 4: you know, Atlanta as the antithesis, as it's sort of

1072
00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 4: opposite rather than you know, maybe the three hundred person

1073
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:30,840
Speaker 4: town an hour outside of it or whatever.

1074
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 3: It's.

1075
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 4: It's certainly seen as like different than Atlanta. And I'm

1076
00:55:34,080 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 4: sure it is to some extent, but I think it's

1077
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 4: a really interesting point. The other thing I would say

1078
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:41,360
Speaker 4: is just that there's a lot to think about in

1079
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:46,239
Speaker 4: terms of how social media can condition us to I think,

1080
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:49,680
Speaker 4: make jump conclusions. So like, for instance, Nicole Hannah Jones,

1081
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 4: who's at the New York Times, pretty powerful person. She tweeted,

1082
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 4: if you understand her ext she said, if you understand

1083
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:58,799
Speaker 4: the history of Montgomery, one of the most prolific slave

1084
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,680
Speaker 4: trading cities in the US and brutally repressive apartheid regime

1085
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 4: after a majority black but just got its first black mayor,

1086
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:06,440
Speaker 4: it gives so much perspective.

1087
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 3: To this video. I don't know about that.

1088
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 4: I feel like when we when when stuff like this

1089
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 4: goes viral, the incentives to sort of shoehorn it immediately

1090
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 4: into a broader sort of political narrative can be really

1091
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:27,880
Speaker 4: dangerous and unnecessarily divisive. And actually I say that as

1092
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:30,680
Speaker 4: someone who doesn't rule out the fact that we may

1093
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:34,359
Speaker 4: learn as this investigation goes on, uh that there were

1094
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:37,759
Speaker 4: racial implications or motivations. I don't rule that out at all.

1095
00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:40,440
Speaker 4: I think it's perfectly plausible. I think to tweet that

1096
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 4: within a couple of days or even hours of it

1097
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 4: going viral, and to turn something that was local and

1098
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 4: that we would typically all sort of deal with, litigate

1099
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:54,160
Speaker 4: literally on a local level before and then sort of

1100
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:57,880
Speaker 4: rocket it into the political stratosphere.

1101
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 3: I never find that to be helpful.

1102
00:57:00,560 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 4: I think it's really unfortunate when people do that before

1103
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:06,320
Speaker 4: we know, you know, whether this is actually tied to

1104
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:07,719
Speaker 4: racial animus.

1105
00:57:08,400 --> 00:57:10,280
Speaker 3: And again I don't rule out that that's possible.

1106
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:13,319
Speaker 4: I just I have seen some of that in this case,

1107
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 4: not just from Nicole Hanna Jones, but from other spots,

1108
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:19,240
Speaker 4: and it may be possible. I just I don't like

1109
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:21,720
Speaker 4: doing it before we know whether or not there's real

1110
00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 4: evidence of that.

1111
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 5: Well.

1112
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:27,479
Speaker 1: I mean, you do have the evidence of the clear

1113
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:30,760
Speaker 1: racial lines, and you know, so people who people who

1114
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 1: were watching, you know, from away from the fight could

1115
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 1: see that that was a bunch of you call them white,

1116
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:39,600
Speaker 1: they were red. You could see this a bunch of

1117
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 1: white people and the person getting beaten was a black person.

1118
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 1: You could very clearly see that, and I think, certainly

1119
00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:47,840
Speaker 1: in Alabama that you understand it through that prism. I

1120
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 1: think a mistake that Hannah Jones might be making in

1121
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 1: that analysis there is to suggest that you know that

1122
00:57:55,200 --> 00:57:58,440
Speaker 1: black people in the South either in an organized fashion

1123
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:02,000
Speaker 1: or spontaneously operating in self defense is.

1124
00:58:02,000 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 5: A is a new phenomenon.

1125
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:07,840
Speaker 1: And in fact, there has been resistance to oppression, uh,

1126
00:58:08,200 --> 00:58:11,480
Speaker 1: you know, dating back to the very beginning of the oppression,

1127
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 1: not just not just when it comes to slave revolts,

1128
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 1: but then you know, organized organized, organized slavery volts. Then

1129
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 1: then then escapes that kind of so panicked the South

1130
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 1: that it uh you know, it caused them to overreact,

1131
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:30,480
Speaker 1: which ended up trigging in the Civil War, the futuive

1132
00:58:30,520 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 1: slave backed et cetera.

1133
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:32,000
Speaker 5: We get that.

1134
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:37,600
Speaker 1: Then you have uh, many of those freedmen then join

1135
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:41,440
Speaker 1: the Union fight back there, and you have people you know,

1136
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:45,640
Speaker 1: organizing militias fighting against the fighting against the Klan, and

1137
00:58:45,920 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 1: that you know, up through the civil civil rights movement

1138
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:53,600
Speaker 1: like you have always had uh you know black Americans, uh,

1139
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:56,959
Speaker 1: you know, pushing back violently and non violently but also

1140
00:58:57,120 --> 00:58:59,880
Speaker 1: you know, violently then and that has that has been

1141
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 1: kind of suppressed in the history. But a lot of it,

1142
00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:06,240
Speaker 1: you know, was you know, thoroughly justified and in self defense,

1143
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:09,000
Speaker 1: like like you saw in this situation. So for her

1144
00:59:09,080 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 1: to kind of, you know, suggest that it's something new,

1145
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:15,960
Speaker 1: I think almost as a disservice and a discredit to

1146
00:59:16,360 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 1: the prouder history of resistance.

1147
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:20,400
Speaker 3: That's a great point, and maybe maybe she.

1148
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: Wasn't suggesting that it was there was brand new, just

1149
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 1: saying look at it through that prison. But I just

1150
00:59:24,160 --> 00:59:26,560
Speaker 1: want to be clear that that that that that proud

1151
00:59:26,680 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 1: history is there, and that's a more.

1152
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:32,200
Speaker 4: I think, precise way to put it, because obviously, I know,

1153
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 4: you know, Nicole Hanna Jones and other people reasonably would

1154
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 4: say the evidence is right in front of you, like

1155
00:59:37,680 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 4: you see the racial breakdown, you have a city as

1156
00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 4: historically charged as Montgomery involved.

1157
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:44,680
Speaker 8: Uh.

1158
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:46,440
Speaker 4: I guess the point I was trying to make is

1159
00:59:46,480 --> 00:59:50,800
Speaker 4: that it's the question of whether there was this very

1160
00:59:50,920 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 4: specific if there was like an actual someone's used a

1161
00:59:54,280 --> 01:00:00,440
Speaker 4: racial slur. Someone was like that question to me something

1162
01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 4: that is when you sort of apply that to a

1163
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 4: really specific local situation and elevate it on the national level,

1164
01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:11,360
Speaker 4: I think that's always unhelpful to getting justice served and

1165
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 4: to understanding the truth of what happened, and the kind

1166
01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:19,080
Speaker 4: of rush to to sort of put this into the

1167
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 4: national racial I understand it, I understand why it happened.

1168
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 4: I guess I just think putting that into that context

1169
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:32,240
Speaker 4: without litigating it. And like, I don't mean litigating in

1170
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:34,240
Speaker 4: that sense like going through the courts. I just mean

1171
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:36,760
Speaker 4: before we have information, this stuff goes viral on social

1172
01:00:36,760 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 4: media and you end up with the Covington Catholic situation.

1173
01:00:38,840 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 4: That was also people were looking at a racial breakdown

1174
01:00:42,040 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 4: and it led them to a conclusion that ended up

1175
01:00:44,560 --> 01:00:47,320
Speaker 4: was seen and settling for millions and millions of dollars.

1176
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:51,600
Speaker 4: Because the snap picture it doesn't always tell the full story,

1177
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:53,560
Speaker 4: even though it goes viral on social media and it's

1178
01:00:53,560 --> 01:00:54,760
Speaker 4: a video and people feel.

1179
01:00:54,520 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 3: Like they know what happened.

1180
01:00:56,040 --> 01:00:58,520
Speaker 1: So that's I guess that's all I meant to say, right,

1181
01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:01,200
Speaker 1: And that's when we did get a bigger story, fuller

1182
01:01:01,280 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 1: story lots, you know, everybody's got a phone at this point.

1183
01:01:05,040 --> 01:01:06,800
Speaker 1: But also I think some of the I think some

1184
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:10,440
Speaker 1: of the racial undertones come through in just in an

1185
01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:13,200
Speaker 1: unspoken way, in the sense that like, who do these

1186
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:16,480
Speaker 1: guys think they are? You know, like, and it's it's

1187
01:01:16,560 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 1: where you start to have to give credit to terms

1188
01:01:19,200 --> 01:01:22,240
Speaker 1: like white privileges, like dude, Okay, you were out drinking

1189
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 1: on your boat all day. You've been sitting there for

1190
01:01:24,440 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 1: forty forty five minutes on the dock with one hundred

1191
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:31,040
Speaker 1: plus people waiting to get off their ferry, waiting to

1192
01:01:31,080 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 1: get off this Harriet two and you just won't move,

1193
01:01:35,120 --> 01:01:37,680
Speaker 1: and then the co captain comes and asks you to move,

1194
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:39,680
Speaker 1: and you beat him up.

1195
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:43,479
Speaker 5: That is a very like privileged, who.

1196
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 1: On earth do you think you are that you can

1197
01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:49,480
Speaker 1: do that, and very difficult to imagine the racial dynamics

1198
01:01:49,520 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 1: being different that. You know, a boat of a handful

1199
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:56,560
Speaker 1: of black guys who are holding up hundreds of people

1200
01:01:56,680 --> 01:01:59,920
Speaker 1: on a ferry then beating up a white co cap

1201
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 1: and on the dock.

1202
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 5: It's very hard to see that because the kind.

1203
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:05,800
Speaker 1: Of power structure and the power dynamics just just don't

1204
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 1: allow you kind of to imagine that unfolding. Although it's

1205
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:12,760
Speaker 1: very difficult to imagine what on earth these dudes were thinking,

1206
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:16,520
Speaker 1: you know, that they would do this in front of

1207
01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:19,760
Speaker 1: a very large black rap like there was a I

1208
01:02:19,840 --> 01:02:22,600
Speaker 1: think a it was a college or a high school

1209
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:26,000
Speaker 1: reunion party going on. You know, several hundred people who

1210
01:02:26,040 --> 01:02:29,160
Speaker 1: were obviously not gonna, uh, you know, stand for that,

1211
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:31,480
Speaker 1: or maybe they thought they would stand for that, but

1212
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:34,080
Speaker 1: they they found out that they would not.

1213
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:38,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you know, they probably want to blame

1214
01:02:38,160 --> 01:02:39,920
Speaker 4: the alcohol in this case, and I'm sure that that

1215
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:43,920
Speaker 4: amplified tensions, especially at the end of the Saturday.

1216
01:02:43,960 --> 01:02:46,040
Speaker 3: But the the.

1217
01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:48,120
Speaker 4: Scenario is just laid out or you're the one causing

1218
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:50,800
Speaker 4: problems and then you're the one that's beating people up. Uh,

1219
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:54,120
Speaker 4: that's that's that's not just alcohol, that's you having some

1220
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:57,080
Speaker 4: serious character problems, and that absolutely being inclined to act

1221
01:02:57,200 --> 01:02:58,240
Speaker 4: like a jerk no matter what.

1222
01:02:59,680 --> 01:03:02,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've done a lot of drinking and boating, and

1223
01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:04,720
Speaker 1: I have never beaten anybody.

1224
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 5: Up for no reason or even for no reason, for

1225
01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:10,000
Speaker 5: no reason, but you have, or even or even for.

1226
01:03:10,040 --> 01:03:15,800
Speaker 1: Any reason really in the boating situation. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Well,

1227
01:03:15,800 --> 01:03:18,320
Speaker 1: I think you know we were talking about the rock

1228
01:03:18,360 --> 01:03:20,600
Speaker 1: called boat talking contest. I just realized that on my

1229
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:22,680
Speaker 1: Twitter profile people want to see it that the like

1230
01:03:23,040 --> 01:03:27,520
Speaker 1: the top image is from like a late nineteen nineties

1231
01:03:27,920 --> 01:03:32,120
Speaker 1: boat docking. You probably find me in that crowd somewhere.

1232
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:35,840
Speaker 1: I haven't gone in years. I'm too old for that now.

1233
01:03:36,000 --> 01:03:41,480
Speaker 1: But nothing more fun than that. But no fighting, Come on,

1234
01:03:42,120 --> 01:03:42,600
Speaker 1: no fighting.

1235
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 3: It takes all the fun away.

1236
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:48,360
Speaker 5: So Emily, what's your point today?

1237
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:53,160
Speaker 4: Well, now seven states have required pornography websites to have

1238
01:03:53,400 --> 01:03:57,840
Speaker 4: age verification, allowing users to access them within their states.

1239
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:01,960
Speaker 4: So there's been heavy focused on Mississippi Virginia. Those are

1240
01:04:02,120 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 4: two earlier this summer. You can see that on the screen.

1241
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:06,800
Speaker 4: This is a Gizmoto headline. You can't access pornhub in

1242
01:04:06,840 --> 01:04:08,160
Speaker 4: Mississippior Virginia anymore.

1243
01:04:08,200 --> 01:04:08,640
Speaker 3: Why is that?

1244
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:11,880
Speaker 4: Because their age verification laws Pornhub felt they could not

1245
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:14,680
Speaker 4: comply with, and so people who go there in those

1246
01:04:14,720 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 4: states see an explanation basically for why they're not operating

1247
01:04:18,200 --> 01:04:22,200
Speaker 4: in those states anymore. Louisiana was the first state to

1248
01:04:22,240 --> 01:04:23,880
Speaker 4: do this, so there's been a huge amount of focus

1249
01:04:24,000 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 4: on that. But as Political Magazine, which had a great

1250
01:04:27,400 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 4: story examining some of these bills, how they came to pass,

1251
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:35,160
Speaker 4: and then what's been happening to Pornhub explains now identical

1252
01:04:35,240 --> 01:04:40,800
Speaker 4: bills to that Louisiana one have passed in six other states, Arkansas, Montana, Mississippi, Utah, Virginia,

1253
01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:45,160
Speaker 4: and Texas. So not just super deep red states. Montana's

1254
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:48,920
Speaker 4: a Democratic senator, obviously. Virginia I would argue it was blue,

1255
01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:51,960
Speaker 4: even though it has a Republican governor right now. And

1256
01:04:52,280 --> 01:04:55,600
Speaker 4: you know others are pretty conservative there. But these are

1257
01:04:55,680 --> 01:04:59,600
Speaker 4: bills that are passing with pretty big margins despite being

1258
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:04,520
Speaker 4: fought bitterly by the pornography industry, which is a huge

1259
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:08,200
Speaker 4: industry right now. The online pornography industry absolutely massive, big,

1260
01:05:08,280 --> 01:05:12,240
Speaker 4: big business at this point. And they're being signed by

1261
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:16,480
Speaker 4: as political notes, democratic Republican governors. And this is a

1262
01:05:16,560 --> 01:05:18,600
Speaker 4: quote from the story. In just over a year, age

1263
01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:21,600
Speaker 4: verification laws have become perhaps the most bipartisan policy in

1264
01:05:21,640 --> 01:05:24,160
Speaker 4: the country, and they are creating havoc in a porn

1265
01:05:24,240 --> 01:05:29,120
Speaker 4: industry that many had considered all but impossible to actually regulate.

1266
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:33,280
Speaker 3: I think that's really important. And Political Magazine.

1267
01:05:32,960 --> 01:05:36,200
Speaker 4: Goes on to explain why they say quote, they're having

1268
01:05:36,240 --> 01:05:39,560
Speaker 4: real effects on how the massive online porn industry does business. Pornhub,

1269
01:05:39,600 --> 01:05:42,440
Speaker 4: the YouTube of pornography, gets more global users than Amazon

1270
01:05:42,520 --> 01:05:45,200
Speaker 4: or Netflix. In twenty nineteen, the last year Pornhub released

1271
01:05:45,200 --> 01:05:47,640
Speaker 4: at data, the site was visited forty two billion times,

1272
01:05:47,760 --> 01:05:50,600
Speaker 4: or one hundred and fifteen million times each day. But

1273
01:05:51,360 --> 01:05:54,480
Speaker 4: according to Ethical Capital Partners, the private equity company that

1274
01:05:54,600 --> 01:05:58,040
Speaker 4: owns Pornhub, let's just look at Louisiana they say their

1275
01:05:58,080 --> 01:06:02,480
Speaker 4: traffic has dropped eighty Their traffic has obviously dropped one

1276
01:06:02,600 --> 01:06:06,280
Speaker 4: hundred percent in the states that it's simply not operating

1277
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:10,320
Speaker 4: in anymore, including I believe Virginia and Mississippi. So that's

1278
01:06:10,600 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 4: incredibly big news across the board for millions of people's

1279
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:20,160
Speaker 4: daily lives in those states and for a massive industry

1280
01:06:20,240 --> 01:06:24,000
Speaker 4: as well. It's also reverberated. This political magazine story was

1281
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:26,840
Speaker 4: shared everywhere on the right yesterday. It's reverberated in Washington

1282
01:06:27,000 --> 01:06:32,520
Speaker 4: because of this idea that online online pornography was too

1283
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:35,400
Speaker 4: big to fail. Maybe it's the best way to put it,

1284
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:38,360
Speaker 4: that it was too hard to do anything. It would

1285
01:06:38,360 --> 01:06:41,480
Speaker 4: be like sort of trying to clean the beach, right,

1286
01:06:41,520 --> 01:06:44,040
Speaker 4: trying to sweep up the beach with a broom and

1287
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:45,800
Speaker 4: get that stand off the beach, as sort of how

1288
01:06:45,840 --> 01:06:49,920
Speaker 4: people viewed online pornography. And the lesson is not just

1289
01:06:49,960 --> 01:06:52,840
Speaker 4: about online pornography for people in Washington, but it is

1290
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:59,000
Speaker 4: that reasonable laws can have massive consequences, that some problems

1291
01:06:59,120 --> 01:07:02,360
Speaker 4: aren't too big for legislation. And maybe you disagree with

1292
01:07:02,520 --> 01:07:06,960
Speaker 4: these particular state laws, but it should be a lesson

1293
01:07:07,200 --> 01:07:09,840
Speaker 4: for all politicians that when you have a problem you

1294
01:07:09,960 --> 01:07:13,240
Speaker 4: consider serious, there are ways, even if it's even if

1295
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:17,280
Speaker 4: it seems overwhelming and impossible, reasonable legislation that is not

1296
01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:21,120
Speaker 4: overly intrusive. So the porn industry in this case is

1297
01:07:21,600 --> 01:07:23,800
Speaker 4: their trade association. A lot of people probably know this

1298
01:07:23,920 --> 01:07:26,560
Speaker 4: is called the Free Speech Coalition, and I don't think

1299
01:07:26,600 --> 01:07:30,160
Speaker 4: it's unreasonable, of course to say that there's free speech

1300
01:07:30,240 --> 01:07:35,080
Speaker 4: implications and regulation of pornography. But we have plenty of registration,

1301
01:07:35,320 --> 01:07:38,120
Speaker 4: we have plenty of regulation around the Second Amendment, and

1302
01:07:38,240 --> 01:07:42,080
Speaker 4: I argue, of course for minimal regulation around the First Amendment.

1303
01:07:42,360 --> 01:07:46,600
Speaker 4: But age verification laws are hardly an undue burden on

1304
01:07:46,800 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 4: the online pornography industry. This is very specifically tailored to

1305
01:07:51,440 --> 01:07:56,120
Speaker 4: online pornography and very specifically about age verification. And so

1306
01:07:56,240 --> 01:07:59,720
Speaker 4: if you want to peddle something that we are learning

1307
01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:05,640
Speaker 4: is as powerful as online pornography, there's mounting evidence. Of course,

1308
01:08:05,680 --> 01:08:08,160
Speaker 4: the Free Speech Coalition would dispute this evidence and say

1309
01:08:09,080 --> 01:08:11,720
Speaker 4: it's not conclusive, it's not serious, but there's evidence that

1310
01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:15,520
Speaker 4: this affects people's dopamine reactions and their brain, especially as

1311
01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:19,519
Speaker 4: they're younger, so they have minds that are still being

1312
01:08:20,000 --> 01:08:24,320
Speaker 4: formed in those stages of brain development, that online pornography

1313
01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:28,120
Speaker 4: can be very addictive. It can create issues like or

1314
01:08:28,200 --> 01:08:30,560
Speaker 4: can lead to issues. It can influence issues like a

1315
01:08:30,600 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 4: rectile dysfunction. There's some evidence suggesting that there's some evidence

1316
01:08:34,040 --> 01:08:37,799
Speaker 4: suggesting it actually has harmful effects in your dopamine pathways.

1317
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:40,479
Speaker 4: Your ability to experience sexual pleasure in a healthy way

1318
01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:44,120
Speaker 4: can be harmed by online pornography. And again, whether or

1319
01:08:44,160 --> 01:08:46,920
Speaker 4: not you agree with any of that, the big takeaway

1320
01:08:46,960 --> 01:08:48,920
Speaker 4: to a lot of people here in Washington is that

1321
01:08:49,800 --> 01:08:52,240
Speaker 4: on this sort of state level, you can take small

1322
01:08:52,320 --> 01:08:57,160
Speaker 4: measures that have huge consequences for hugely consequential issues, to

1323
01:08:57,200 --> 01:09:00,920
Speaker 4: the point where those issues are feeling overwhelming legislators in

1324
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:04,559
Speaker 4: this new era, and that has big implications. I would

1325
01:09:04,560 --> 01:09:07,080
Speaker 4: also say, for AI, how much is that argument trotted

1326
01:09:07,120 --> 01:09:10,880
Speaker 4: out that we really can't do anything when it comes

1327
01:09:10,920 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 4: to AI because it's.

1328
01:09:11,760 --> 01:09:13,200
Speaker 3: Already out of our hands.

1329
01:09:13,800 --> 01:09:16,160
Speaker 4: And that's probably a big argument people are making right

1330
01:09:16,240 --> 01:09:18,720
Speaker 4: now in states like Louisiana. It's like, Okay, well people

1331
01:09:18,760 --> 01:09:22,599
Speaker 4: aren't going to pornhub, They're still finding their pornography somewhere.

1332
01:09:22,880 --> 01:09:25,360
Speaker 4: I'm sure there's truth to that, and I look forward

1333
01:09:25,360 --> 01:09:27,519
Speaker 4: to reading the evidence about whether or not that's happening,

1334
01:09:27,600 --> 01:09:29,920
Speaker 4: the degree to how it's happening, and what's going on

1335
01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:34,680
Speaker 4: with that. But I still think it's incredibly important to

1336
01:09:34,800 --> 01:09:37,599
Speaker 4: look at how these laws can shape behavior, even if

1337
01:09:37,640 --> 01:09:41,160
Speaker 4: they're small and they're not massively intrusive. This isn't a

1338
01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:45,280
Speaker 4: it would be hard to argue even conservatives, and especially

1339
01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:47,439
Speaker 4: conservatives in this case, but even sort of pro business

1340
01:09:47,479 --> 01:09:50,280
Speaker 4: conservatives look at this and say, well, yeah, that's not

1341
01:09:50,439 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 4: like the most intrusive step into the free market or

1342
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:56,560
Speaker 4: the economy that you could possibly conceive of. And I

1343
01:09:56,560 --> 01:09:59,320
Speaker 4: would argue, again, this is important as political points out.

1344
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:01,360
Speaker 4: We're looking at some democratic governor signing this.

1345
01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:01,600
Speaker 8: Well.

1346
01:10:01,680 --> 01:10:05,360
Speaker 4: One of the activists started a push for this by

1347
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:09,439
Speaker 4: watching Billie Eilish on Howard Stern, when Billy Eilish said, quote,

1348
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:11,200
Speaker 4: I used to watch a lot of porn. To be honest,

1349
01:10:11,240 --> 01:10:13,280
Speaker 4: I started watching porn when I was like eleven. I

1350
01:10:13,320 --> 01:10:15,559
Speaker 4: think it really destroyed my brain. And I feel incredibly

1351
01:10:15,640 --> 01:10:18,439
Speaker 4: devastated that I was exposed to so much porn. Quote,

1352
01:10:18,479 --> 01:10:21,960
Speaker 4: I think it really destroyed my brain. Washington takes a

1353
01:10:22,000 --> 01:10:25,439
Speaker 4: long time to catch up, often with younger people, because

1354
01:10:25,720 --> 01:10:27,599
Speaker 4: Washington is disproportionately older.

1355
01:10:27,680 --> 01:10:29,719
Speaker 3: But as the rate of technological.

1356
01:10:29,240 --> 01:10:33,000
Speaker 4: Change increases, makes it more and more important for Washington

1357
01:10:33,120 --> 01:10:37,960
Speaker 4: to understand technological change, the effect of technological change on

1358
01:10:38,040 --> 01:10:40,960
Speaker 4: younger and younger people who are using that technology much

1359
01:10:41,080 --> 01:10:44,760
Speaker 4: differently than your average senator, a representative, or governor or

1360
01:10:44,840 --> 01:10:49,439
Speaker 4: state legislature. And that is another hugely important issue of

1361
01:10:49,800 --> 01:10:53,479
Speaker 4: all of this. Do people understand in Washington? I mean,

1362
01:10:53,560 --> 01:10:56,719
Speaker 4: remember those famous clips of senators trying to understand Facebook.

1363
01:10:57,760 --> 01:11:00,240
Speaker 4: We feel like they've caught up on Facebook now, which

1364
01:11:00,280 --> 01:11:03,240
Speaker 4: makes sense because it's all boomers anyway. But have they

1365
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:07,960
Speaker 4: caught up on things like online pornography? No, because it's different.

1366
01:11:08,040 --> 01:11:10,760
Speaker 4: We look at the levels. We see the average age

1367
01:11:10,800 --> 01:11:13,160
Speaker 4: that people are exposed to online pornography, the average age

1368
01:11:13,160 --> 01:11:17,439
Speaker 4: of regular use starting of online pornography, when that's happening

1369
01:11:17,479 --> 01:11:19,599
Speaker 4: over the course of ten years as your brain is developing,

1370
01:11:19,680 --> 01:11:22,000
Speaker 4: so from the ages of like thirteen to let's say,

1371
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:26,400
Speaker 4: happy likely twenty three, whatever that is. This has never

1372
01:11:26,479 --> 01:11:29,439
Speaker 4: happened before in human history that people have access to

1373
01:11:29,960 --> 01:11:33,720
Speaker 4: this volume of pornography so easily and for such a

1374
01:11:33,800 --> 01:11:36,320
Speaker 4: long period of their developing lives. So I think it's

1375
01:11:36,439 --> 01:11:40,240
Speaker 4: absurd to dismiss these things out of hand. I'm sure

1376
01:11:40,320 --> 01:11:42,920
Speaker 4: some of the evidence on the anti pornography side, like

1377
01:11:43,040 --> 01:11:45,040
Speaker 4: it was in the nineties when people were fighting about

1378
01:11:45,040 --> 01:11:47,360
Speaker 4: this and you had Android's work in and all those

1379
01:11:47,400 --> 01:11:50,360
Speaker 4: folks saying, you know, we need to regulate this, we

1380
01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:52,920
Speaker 4: need the feminist position on this has to be anti

1381
01:11:53,040 --> 01:11:56,040
Speaker 4: porn I know some of those arguments we're spurious, although

1382
01:11:56,200 --> 01:11:58,240
Speaker 4: we were talking about a very different kind of pornography

1383
01:11:58,960 --> 01:12:04,080
Speaker 4: back then. Then again, the volume, the difficulty of regulating

1384
01:12:04,160 --> 01:12:06,960
Speaker 4: something like porn Hub's content, for whether or not it

1385
01:12:07,120 --> 01:12:10,040
Speaker 4: involves things like trafficking, for whether or not it involves

1386
01:12:10,760 --> 01:12:14,360
Speaker 4: things that are violent and beyond the pale of what

1387
01:12:14,360 --> 01:12:16,040
Speaker 4: people should be able to make money off of them,

1388
01:12:16,040 --> 01:12:18,000
Speaker 4: what people should be able to serve up to young children.

1389
01:12:18,800 --> 01:12:21,040
Speaker 4: This is a very very different time. Again, I'm sure

1390
01:12:21,120 --> 01:12:23,200
Speaker 4: some of these arguments are spurious. I'm not saying they're

1391
01:12:23,200 --> 01:12:25,479
Speaker 4: all made in good faith, and they're all from people

1392
01:12:25,479 --> 01:12:27,800
Speaker 4: who really do believe in free speech. But there's an

1393
01:12:27,840 --> 01:12:30,360
Speaker 4: incredibly reasonable position here, which is that we don't know

1394
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:33,040
Speaker 4: we have some really really negative signs of how this

1395
01:12:33,120 --> 01:12:36,000
Speaker 4: has affected developing brains, how this has affected people around

1396
01:12:36,040 --> 01:12:39,519
Speaker 4: the world, and we don't know simply the extent of

1397
01:12:39,640 --> 01:12:42,559
Speaker 4: how bad that is. There's plenty of evidence to suggest

1398
01:12:42,640 --> 01:12:45,160
Speaker 4: how bad it is, and there are reasonable measures that

1399
01:12:45,240 --> 01:12:48,480
Speaker 4: can be taken on a small level that don't dramatically

1400
01:12:48,680 --> 01:12:52,640
Speaker 4: curb the First Amendment just because they're age laws and

1401
01:12:53,120 --> 01:12:56,840
Speaker 4: can have a hugely consequential effect, and can be bipartisan,

1402
01:12:57,280 --> 01:12:59,280
Speaker 4: and can be from both the left and the right,

1403
01:12:59,400 --> 01:13:00,600
Speaker 4: something that people will agree on.

1404
01:13:00,800 --> 01:13:03,160
Speaker 3: So, Ryan, this has been.

1405
01:13:03,080 --> 01:13:06,280
Speaker 4: Really interesting to see these seven states, some from different backgrounds,

1406
01:13:06,720 --> 01:13:07,639
Speaker 4: past these laws.

1407
01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:10,640
Speaker 3: Have you noticed how this is? I know this is.

1408
01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:12,640
Speaker 4: It's always been a raging debate on the sort of

1409
01:13:12,640 --> 01:13:17,160
Speaker 4: the feminist left between your Andro Dorkins, your Chemopaulias, your

1410
01:13:17,160 --> 01:13:20,280
Speaker 4: people who are sort of the sex positive feminism that

1411
01:13:20,360 --> 01:13:22,400
Speaker 4: seem to win out over the last twenty years, and

1412
01:13:22,439 --> 01:13:25,360
Speaker 4: then even people like Michelle Goldberg taking some steps back

1413
01:13:25,400 --> 01:13:25,920
Speaker 4: and saying.

1414
01:13:25,760 --> 01:13:27,560
Speaker 3: Well, maybe we do need to rethink some of this.

1415
01:13:28,320 --> 01:13:29,760
Speaker 3: How is this landing on the left?

1416
01:13:31,000 --> 01:13:35,559
Speaker 1: Other than folks like Michelle Goldberg, who are I think

1417
01:13:35,640 --> 01:13:38,040
Speaker 1: admirably willing to kind of run up against the grain,

1418
01:13:39,400 --> 01:13:43,120
Speaker 1: you pretty much have hegemony for the kind of sex

1419
01:13:43,240 --> 01:13:47,080
Speaker 1: positive side, even if maybe there's some stirrings in the

1420
01:13:47,120 --> 01:13:50,840
Speaker 1: younger generation of saying that maybe the pendulum it needs

1421
01:13:50,880 --> 01:13:53,559
Speaker 1: to swing back a little bit in the other direction.

1422
01:13:54,000 --> 01:14:00,040
Speaker 5: So you don't see much on the left, although you

1423
01:14:00,120 --> 01:14:03,200
Speaker 5: know clearly there's not it's it's not a high enough.

1424
01:14:03,160 --> 01:14:06,240
Speaker 1: Priority issue that some that is that a blue state

1425
01:14:06,320 --> 01:14:08,960
Speaker 1: like Virginia couldn't pass this law that that that has

1426
01:14:09,520 --> 01:14:13,400
Speaker 1: porn hub shutting down there. So, you know, I think

1427
01:14:14,040 --> 01:14:16,040
Speaker 1: what you see kind of in the culture and and

1428
01:14:16,200 --> 01:14:20,560
Speaker 1: on on social media doesn't necessarily translate into into the

1429
01:14:20,760 --> 01:14:24,720
Speaker 1: into the halls of power. I'm usually really skeptical of

1430
01:14:24,840 --> 01:14:28,599
Speaker 1: companies when they're claiming that regulation is going to destroy

1431
01:14:28,680 --> 01:14:30,320
Speaker 1: them and so therefore they have to leave the state.

1432
01:14:30,400 --> 01:14:33,960
Speaker 1: It's usually you know that it's very often that these

1433
01:14:34,040 --> 01:14:37,680
Speaker 1: companies are are just using their market power as as

1434
01:14:37,760 --> 01:14:44,559
Speaker 1: political power and trying to bludgeon them into basically repealing

1435
01:14:44,600 --> 01:14:47,439
Speaker 1: the laws or or or to stay to other states. Look,

1436
01:14:47,479 --> 01:14:50,000
Speaker 1: if you if you do the same, then then this

1437
01:14:50,160 --> 01:14:52,360
Speaker 1: is what's gonna then this is what's going to happen next.

1438
01:14:53,120 --> 01:14:54,560
Speaker 1: You know, a lot of this to me should be

1439
01:14:54,680 --> 01:14:59,280
Speaker 1: up to parents rather than rather than up to Virginia.

1440
01:15:00,040 --> 01:15:01,280
Speaker 5: Uh uh.

1441
01:15:02,160 --> 01:15:04,640
Speaker 1: And that you know, kids, you know, kids shouldn't have

1442
01:15:04,880 --> 01:15:07,200
Speaker 1: devices that are capable of doing this, and then you know,

1443
01:15:07,360 --> 01:15:09,560
Speaker 1: so that's the one part where I'm where I'm sympathetic

1444
01:15:09,640 --> 01:15:14,599
Speaker 1: to the pornhow argument. Their argument is that the controls

1445
01:15:14,600 --> 01:15:17,400
Speaker 1: should be on the device, that the device, uh, you know,

1446
01:15:17,600 --> 01:15:20,920
Speaker 1: should have settings that only allowed to reach certain sites,

1447
01:15:20,960 --> 01:15:23,080
Speaker 1: and porn sites should be you know, by far the

1448
01:15:23,160 --> 01:15:25,680
Speaker 1: first that they don't get to. And then there's lots

1449
01:15:25,720 --> 01:15:28,720
Speaker 1: of other stuff like most YouTube videos. Maybe they're not

1450
01:15:28,760 --> 01:15:29,280
Speaker 1: even ready.

1451
01:15:29,160 --> 01:15:32,679
Speaker 5: For this show, this YouTube video yet, this hugetube video.

1452
01:15:33,080 --> 01:15:35,960
Speaker 1: That's right, but there's so much on there that that

1453
01:15:36,120 --> 01:15:39,400
Speaker 1: kids just don't need until they're you know, until they're

1454
01:15:39,479 --> 01:15:39,920
Speaker 1: much older.

1455
01:15:40,840 --> 01:15:44,240
Speaker 4: So you know, my answer that is definitely like why not,

1456
01:15:44,360 --> 01:15:46,680
Speaker 4: both because I agree with that completely and a lot

1457
01:15:46,760 --> 01:15:48,960
Speaker 4: of the content I think is designed in a way

1458
01:15:49,000 --> 01:15:51,920
Speaker 4: that is intentionally addictive and is having real effects. I mean,

1459
01:15:51,960 --> 01:15:54,880
Speaker 4: there are plenty of scientific studies on the neurology and

1460
01:15:54,920 --> 01:15:58,240
Speaker 4: the neurological effects of social media, and I think we

1461
01:15:58,360 --> 01:16:00,920
Speaker 4: will see a push towards regulation. That is, you know,

1462
01:16:01,040 --> 01:16:04,280
Speaker 4: we have age laws for buying cigarettes, you have age

1463
01:16:04,360 --> 01:16:07,320
Speaker 4: laws for marijuana in some states, and even as a

1464
01:16:07,840 --> 01:16:12,479
Speaker 4: generally a limited government person, I'm fine with age laws

1465
01:16:12,760 --> 01:16:16,880
Speaker 4: for the consumption of cigarettes. Maybe seatbalts are a different question,

1466
01:16:17,000 --> 01:16:20,800
Speaker 4: but age laws in some cases are entirely reasonable. So

1467
01:16:21,360 --> 01:16:23,960
Speaker 4: the other thing I'm waiting for, Ryan is the porn

1468
01:16:24,040 --> 01:16:27,840
Speaker 4: hub argument then to be used by the sort of

1469
01:16:28,320 --> 01:16:30,880
Speaker 4: the small porn business and saying like, it's very easy

1470
01:16:30,920 --> 01:16:33,560
Speaker 4: for porn hub to do age verification in Louisiana, but

1471
01:16:33,680 --> 01:16:36,280
Speaker 4: us little guys, you know, maybe maybe pornhub flips at

1472
01:16:36,280 --> 01:16:38,960
Speaker 4: one point and is like, yes, age verification, because then

1473
01:16:39,000 --> 01:16:41,559
Speaker 4: we can shut down all of our little competitors who

1474
01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:45,680
Speaker 4: don't have the technological resources to do comprehensive age verification.

1475
01:16:46,600 --> 01:16:49,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, but these smaller competitors are so fly by night

1476
01:16:49,680 --> 01:16:51,960
Speaker 1: that I would imagine that they'll just, you know, they'll

1477
01:16:52,040 --> 01:16:55,640
Speaker 1: just pop up and continue because if you shut them down,

1478
01:16:55,680 --> 01:16:57,479
Speaker 1: they just pop up with a different ur l. Like

1479
01:16:57,600 --> 01:17:02,799
Speaker 1: it's it's different than you know, a social media company

1480
01:17:03,360 --> 01:17:07,639
Speaker 1: like competing with Facebook or Twitter, because they need massive

1481
01:17:07,640 --> 01:17:10,840
Speaker 1: scale and network effects to be successful. These little, tiny

1482
01:17:10,880 --> 01:17:14,280
Speaker 1: porn companies don't need that. They just need some way

1483
01:17:14,439 --> 01:17:18,960
Speaker 1: to get to these users who are you no longer

1484
01:17:19,080 --> 01:17:22,679
Speaker 1: have access to the porn hub in Louisiana or Virginia. Yeah,

1485
01:17:23,000 --> 01:17:26,839
Speaker 1: absolutely wasn't surprised to see that Utah.

1486
01:17:27,080 --> 01:17:29,519
Speaker 4: No Uta is the least surprising of the states included

1487
01:17:29,560 --> 01:17:35,200
Speaker 4: on that list. This actually does it for us for

1488
01:17:35,320 --> 01:17:38,719
Speaker 4: the show at the moment, because again, as we mentioned

1489
01:17:38,760 --> 01:17:41,280
Speaker 4: at the top of the show, Ryan is going to

1490
01:17:41,320 --> 01:17:43,800
Speaker 4: be out with a breaking news report that we've teased

1491
01:17:43,840 --> 01:17:47,280
Speaker 4: a little bit and I'll let Ryan, you know, take

1492
01:17:47,320 --> 01:17:50,000
Speaker 4: it from here because it's a pretty big breaking story.

1493
01:17:50,680 --> 01:17:54,280
Speaker 4: But we will be back later with a follow up

1494
01:17:54,439 --> 01:17:58,439
Speaker 4: to today's show because Ryan has a breaking story to

1495
01:17:58,479 --> 01:17:59,200
Speaker 4: share with everyone.