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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast is presented by wind

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Speaker 1: is click on the Action Network link in this episode description. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's get things started, all right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 2: And the checks clock College football World. Stop dollars. Oh

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Speaker 2: my godness, please stop.

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Speaker 4: All that.

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Speaker 3: Collateral dam of the field. It's not the side of

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Speaker 3: the dog in the fight. It's the side of the

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Speaker 3: fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up, Degenerate Nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast presented by win Bet. This is the Week

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Speaker 2: five college football betting preview. I'm stuck in with me

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Speaker 2: as always is Colin Wilson. I don't even want to

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Speaker 2: say hi or any We have so much to get to.

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Speaker 2: What a slate.

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Speaker 3: I love every single game I've bet on this week.

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Speaker 3: I have a high volume. I love my hogs, woo pig,

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Speaker 3: silly Jack. Let's get into it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Hi, Hello, how are you all right? Let's start

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Speaker 2: with the segment we always start with, and that's look

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Speaker 2: ahead or look away before we get into some mark

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Speaker 2: key games, hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot.

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Speaker 3: Is it time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: And for this segment, for those unfamiliar or first time listeners, welcome.

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Speaker 2: First of all, we look at next week's board and

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Speaker 2: determine if there's any impact this week with teams potentially,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe looking ahead a little bit, maybe they'd

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Speaker 2: show a little less, maybe they take their foot off

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Speaker 2: the gas in the second half a little sooner with

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Speaker 2: a big lead, worried about health and not showing much.

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Speaker 2: So we have a couple games here to go over.

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Speaker 2: The Red River Rivalry Shootout whatever it's called, is next

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Speaker 2: weekend between Oklahoma and Texas. Oklahoma first this weekend goes

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Speaker 2: to Kansas State, a team that has just had their

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Speaker 2: number the past couple of years. Oklahoma at win bet

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Speaker 2: is a ten and a half point favored over under

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Speaker 2: fifty two and a half Texas after their being of

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Speaker 2: Texas Tech last week at win Bett Official outs provider

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Speaker 2: of the Big Bets on Campus podcast, a five point

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Speaker 2: favorite over under sixty five looks like Will Howard's I

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Speaker 2: don't think Skyler Thompson's ready to go, but Will Howard

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Speaker 2: it was banged up last week. Should be the one

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Speaker 2: worrying thing here. Kansas State run heavy team. Oklahoma's run

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Speaker 2: defense has been really really good this year, which would

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Speaker 2: give me pause if I wanted to back the Wildcats here.

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Speaker 2: Any thoughts on this game?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, listen. Obviously coach Kleiman has the number of the Sooners.

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Speaker 3: You know, this is a game that he's won before

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Speaker 3: with a lot less talent and a lot less expectations

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Speaker 3: from a market perspective. The numbers right, we make it ten,

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Speaker 3: we make it fifty three and a half. But you

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Speaker 3: know there's an there's just edges on Kansas State side.

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Speaker 3: Now listen, the starting quarterbackory Skyler Thompson. He's doubtful Will

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Speaker 3: Howard or Jaron lewis right. I mean there's a number

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Speaker 3: of quarterbacks could be a play here, but They're going

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Speaker 3: to turn around hand the ball off because climbing calls

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Speaker 3: sixty five percent of rush and you know OUs ninth

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Speaker 3: and nne yards tenth and rushing success. We love OU's defense,

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Speaker 3: we don't love Spencer Rattler. So the one thing we

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Speaker 3: have to look out for here is Deuce Vaughn. And

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Speaker 3: you know he's done it to him before. He's had

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Speaker 3: fifteen runs so far this year over ten yards, He's

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Speaker 3: created nineteen miss tackles. OU right now is one hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifteenth against rush explosiveness, and they're allowing a success

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Speaker 3: rate eight percent higher than opposing rushes than national average.

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Speaker 3: So what I'm trying to say is their defense is

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Speaker 3: allowing rushing opponents to exceed the national average. And that's

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Speaker 3: what Kansas State's gonna do. So I Will Howard, Skylar Zompson,

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Speaker 3: Jared Lewis, They're just gonna turn our handed off to

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Speaker 3: Deuce and we're going to see what happens there. And

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Speaker 3: what's funny is is like Kansas State has this explosive

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Speaker 3: running back and other explosive weapons, but Kennedy Brooks and

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Speaker 3: Eric Gray and Jemiah Hall virtually non existent for the

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Speaker 3: Sooners they haven't had as many ten yard runs combined

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Speaker 3: that duce Vaughn has. And so this is all on

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Speaker 3: Spencer Rattler's arm and I can figure out for the life.

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Speaker 3: I mean, no matter how much I stare at the numbers,

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Speaker 3: the most surprising stat to me is Spencer Rattler five

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Speaker 3: of his six turnover worthy plays came in a clean pocket.

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Speaker 3: Don't listen a narrative out there that Rattler has happy theater.

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Speaker 3: He can't take a crowded pocket. His bad throws are

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Speaker 3: coming on clean pockets. Just three completions on ten attempts

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Speaker 3: over twenty yards, zero drops, and that whole chant for

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Speaker 3: Caleb that's going to continue. Do I have the balls

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Speaker 3: to take Kansas State here? Let's find out on Saturday

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Speaker 3: morning on the Live show. But the explosive run of

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Speaker 3: U Swawn is the factor here.

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Speaker 2: In regards to Texas TCU, I think we're going to

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Speaker 2: disagree here. I like TCU. I think this lot, this

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Speaker 2: love for Texas is getting a little bit out of

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Speaker 2: handouts at TCU's defense was embarrassed last week. But you know, hi,

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Speaker 2: I am on SMU. I think they have a top

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Speaker 2: twenty five offense with Tanner, Mordecai, the great offensive line,

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Speaker 2: great receiving group, great running back room. That's just an

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Speaker 2: electric offense. Their defense was decimated, right. They didn't have

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Speaker 2: I still don't know the status of Corey Bethley. They

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Speaker 2: didn't have the best their best defensive tackle, they didn't

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Speaker 2: have their best defensive end, they didn't have their best cornerback.

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Speaker 2: No Daniels. I from what on I've gathered, I think

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Speaker 2: Daniels and their defensive end should return this week. They

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Speaker 2: even had injuries at safety last week, so they had

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Speaker 2: to move the corners to safety. So the defense was

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Speaker 2: just a mess. That tackling was a mess. I expect

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Speaker 2: a much better effort from the TCU defense. You know

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Speaker 2: that Patterson usually has this unit playing very well. I

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Speaker 2: think they'll respond to that embarrassing loss last week against SMU.

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Speaker 2: I think it's being overblown because I think SMU is

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Speaker 2: a pretty damn good team, and I just think that

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Speaker 2: the Texas love is getting a little out of hand

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Speaker 2: after that beatdown of Texas Tech. So I show value

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Speaker 2: on TCU. I will be on TCU. It's sitting at

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Speaker 2: a dead five. I'm hoping that the Horn love fest

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Speaker 2: continues and I can get a six or maybe even higher.

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Speaker 2: Are you doing on the love fest?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I love Texas, there's no doubt about it.

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Speaker 3: I love what Casey Thompson is doing. I love coach Tarkesian,

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Speaker 3: big fan of coach Turkesian here. But no I project

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Speaker 3: the number four and a half the total sixty five.

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Speaker 3: It's right in line with the market. But weather is

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Speaker 3: a big factor here. Sixty five percent chance of pre

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Speaker 3: sip to start the game, it tails off towards the end,

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Speaker 3: and so you need to take that in as a factor. Now,

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Speaker 3: lots of people will point say that TCU owns this

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Speaker 3: series one sixth of last seven, but I think that

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Speaker 3: has more to do with Tom Herman anything else. So

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Speaker 3: we throw that out. We look at Casey Thompson. He

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Speaker 3: has an eight to two TD to I int ratio,

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Speaker 3: but you know that's over rice in Texas tech. He

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Speaker 3: has excelled in short and medium passing, hasn't really done

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Speaker 3: so much from beyond twenty yards. TCU right now is

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Speaker 3: fielding a rank of dead last and defending pass explosiveness.

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Speaker 3: So that would make me a little bit worried about

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Speaker 3: holding a TCU ticket.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 3: The defenses outside the top one hundred almost every single category, lineyards,

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Speaker 3: finishing drives one hundred and twenty fifth, tackling one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty fourth. I could go on and on, but

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Speaker 3: I mean we're talking success rate of one hundred and

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Speaker 3: thirtieth and passing downs. So I'm wondering, how does Texas

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Speaker 3: not score seventy again. Now that's not to say that

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Speaker 3: TCU can't put up sixty six and cover the spread. Right,

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Speaker 3: the Texas defense has its own struggles. Quick Kowski's scheme

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Speaker 3: is not being picked up. The tackling is off. That's

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Speaker 3: great for Max Duggan, that is great for running back

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Speaker 3: Zach Evans. I think they're gonna eat all day. You know,

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Speaker 3: quick Kowski's defense in Texas has fallen to one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty fourth and passing success rate. I mean, this

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Speaker 3: could be a huge day for the horn Frogs. TCU

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Speaker 3: might have their best offensive day of the season. There's

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Speaker 3: no spread for me on this, but considering like Patterson

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Speaker 3: holds all the information back, you never know exactly who's healthy.

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Speaker 3: The only thing I do know as a variable is

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Speaker 3: that Texas is scoring a tonal points and TCU's defense

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Speaker 3: is gonna oblige. So for me, this is a Texas

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Speaker 3: team total over. I think you're completely justified in saying

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Speaker 3: that TC can keep up.

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Speaker 2: Though another game here, missus sip State plus seven at

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Speaker 2: win bet at Texas A and M. Texas A and

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Speaker 2: M has a date with Alabama on deck. They came

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Speaker 2: off that loss against Arkansas. Mississippi State is a team.

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Speaker 2: I think Will Rodgers is running that offense effective. That's

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Speaker 2: a bad turnover luck. Last week against LSU, they ran

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Speaker 2: like thirty five more plays. There was three broken plays

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Speaker 2: that LSU had and that account for I thinic like

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Speaker 2: sixty percent of their yard. It's like two defensive backs

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Speaker 2: running to each other. There was a busted coverage and

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Speaker 2: then a slant whip by boute Is one of the

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Speaker 2: best receivers in the country. He took it to the house.

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Speaker 2: So I thought Missisipi State was the better team last week.

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Speaker 2: And look, I saw a play on the app come

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Speaker 2: across that you had on Texas A and M. I

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Speaker 2: am waiting. I'm gonna get at seven and that soon

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Speaker 2: here for Missisippi State. I disagree with you. Missisippi State

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Speaker 2: defense is should shut down the Texas A and M

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Speaker 2: run the Texas A and m offensive line is a mess.

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Speaker 2: The quarterback is a mess. I can't believe you're back

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Speaker 2: in Calzada. Who gives a Zach calls that up. I'm

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Speaker 2: never betting Zach tells that again. I fear God. And look, yeah,

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Speaker 2: you could say he's faced a similar defense at three

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Speaker 2: three five. It confused the hell out of him. It's

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Speaker 2: confused to howl old of them multiple weeks. I think

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Speaker 2: it'll do so again. I'm waiting to see the status

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Speaker 2: of one of Mississippi State's cornerbacks. They're one of the

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Speaker 2: best cornerback duos in the country either Forbes Rammerson, I

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Speaker 2: forget was carted off last week in one of those collisions.

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Speaker 2: And Leach doesn't give anything when it comes to injuries.

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Speaker 2: But Calzada stinks. This is a you want a trend here,

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Speaker 2: and this applies to Arkansas. This applies to Boston College

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Speaker 2: as well. Road dogs in conference of seven plus points

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Speaker 2: with a total of forty eight or lower, you're catching

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Speaker 2: more than seven, You're catching more than seven, seven or

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Speaker 2: more with a low total forty eight or lower in

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Speaker 2: a conference game, those underdogs have gone three hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighty four two hundred and sixty five and thirteen against

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Speaker 2: the spread, just under sixty percent since two thousand and

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Speaker 2: five fifteen percent. ROI not bad. That makes sense. You're catching,

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Speaker 2: you know, over a touchdown in a low total. Points

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Speaker 2: are more at a premium. So yeah, I just don't

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Speaker 2: believe in the Texan offense. I don't believe in Kelsada.

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Speaker 2: I don't believe in the offensive line. Texas A and

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Speaker 2: M had bigger plans than this, and they lost at Arkansas.

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Speaker 2: I could see them even being a little flat, and

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Speaker 2: they're looking ahead to Alabama and I'll be on a

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Speaker 2: misstate there and make the case for your boy Calzada

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Speaker 2: in your Texas A and M row, are.

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Speaker 3: We looking ahead to Alabama after we take a loss

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Speaker 3: like that? Or are we trying to have like a

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Speaker 3: hammer down kind of weak? And I think that's really

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Speaker 3: what I kind of struggled with. And why are you

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Speaker 3: sending me a bathrobe on Twitter? By the way, you

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Speaker 3: think I'm gonna get out of my shower and put

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Speaker 3: a Texas A and M bathrobe on?

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Speaker 2: That was You're the biggest Texas A and M better.

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Speaker 2: You're like a booster basically at this point back in

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Speaker 2: them every week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean, somebody has to.

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Speaker 2: Be played them against New Mexico too, just.

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Speaker 3: Like somebody has to pay Jimbo's bill. It's a pretty

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Speaker 3: big one.

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Speaker 2: I don't just support just keep fighting with us Ran

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Speaker 2: quitting on you, but they don't quit on us. You

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Speaker 2: know what I'm saying, There's no reason to be nasty.

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Speaker 3: And what led to my handicap of this and why

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Speaker 3: I took Texas A and M is that he's not

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Speaker 3: going to be pressured even with a banged up offensive line,

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Speaker 3: and Arkansas was all over making bad decisions in Mississippi

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Speaker 3: State is one hundred and nineteenth in pass rush Mississippi State.

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Speaker 3: If you flip to the other side, Missippi State throws

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Speaker 3: seventy five percent of the time with the air raid

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Speaker 3: And that kind of goes in the face of what

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Speaker 3: Texas A and M's defense is. They're number one in

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Speaker 3: the nation in passing success rate. That is a bad

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Speaker 3: combination for Mike Leach. There's no explosiveness to the Mississippi

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Speaker 3: State offense. One hundred and twentieth and passing EPA dead

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Speaker 3: last and rushing EPA on the rare run attempts that

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Speaker 3: they have. I saw them run like at the goal line.

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Speaker 3: I don't know what the hell that was. I mean

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Speaker 3: that means that sustained drives that Mississippi State is going

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Speaker 3: to have if they have any against the number one

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Speaker 3: passing defense in the nation against Texas A and M.

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Speaker 3: Once they cross the forty, they're going to have to

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Speaker 3: face a Texas A and M defense's third in defensive

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Speaker 3: finishing drives. I mean, this Mississippi State offense has no

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Speaker 3: bite to it. It's can dunk. It's going up against

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Speaker 3: the best pass defense. There's a massive difference in special

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Speaker 3: teams here, one hundred and seventeenth for Mississippi State and

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Speaker 3: SP plus special teams for Texas A and M. They're

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Speaker 3: thirteenth in the nation. It's a game I project above

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Speaker 3: seven about eight and a half. Let's not go wild here.

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Speaker 3: If you want to take a first half on Texas

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Speaker 3: A and M, see if they can get some of

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Speaker 3: the stink off of what happened last week. Possibly, But

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Speaker 3: this is going to be a big crowd for an

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Speaker 3: SEC game, and this is a very good pass defense,

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Speaker 3: and that's a bad combination for Mike Leach.

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Speaker 2: You're relying on the crowd and robes and special teams

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Speaker 2: good luck Missippi State. Di Dantha finished DRIs and yeah, there'

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Speaker 2: special teams have been a disaster and it's led to

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Speaker 2: some unfortunate field position, So yeah, there could be a factor.

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Speaker 2: It's not a bad point. And finally here we have

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Speaker 2: NC State off that huge win over Clemson, which I

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Speaker 2: think spoke more about Clemson anything else, playing Louisiana Tech.

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Speaker 2: I think this line is off the board everywhere. I

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Speaker 2: can't find it right now. I'm trying to bet Louiana

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Speaker 2: Tech as we speak, won't go too much into this year.

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Speaker 2: Louisiana Tech, by the way, has played with two opponent,

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Speaker 2: two really good opponents, right down to the wire. Smu,

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Speaker 2: we talked about beat him on a hail mary on

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Speaker 2: the final play of the game. Mississippi State had to

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Speaker 2: come back from what twenty one down and beat them

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Speaker 2: by two. And then but then they barely beat an

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Speaker 2: FCS team. Then last week they escaped a very bad

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Speaker 2: FBS team, but their quarterback was out. And the drop

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Speaker 2: off between Austin Kendall, the Oklahoma Trands or all these

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma Treadsers by the way, Mordecai, Smu, they're all thriving,

286
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Speaker 2: while where Atteler are struggling, but he was out last

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Speaker 2: week due to code protocols. He's number one on the

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Speaker 2: depth chart. I think he's playing. That's all I need.

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Speaker 2: There's a big drop up between him and Austin Allen

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Speaker 2: if he's playing. This is a super flat spot for

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Speaker 2: NSIS State. We've seen this high variance law Tech team

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Speaker 2: play with superior competition. They're kind of playing up and

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Speaker 2: down to the competition. I'll be on them over seventeen.

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Speaker 2: Given the spot, I just need this line to pop back.

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Speaker 3: What's keeping me off of playing the first half under

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Speaker 3: is the status of Austin Kendall. Question for this game.

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Speaker 3: LA Tech's going into a bye. NC State is going

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Speaker 3: into a bye. If Aaron Allen is taking first team

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Speaker 3: snaps in practice today and freshman Caleb Holstein is taking

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Speaker 3: reps as the backup, is LA Tech going to go

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Speaker 3: completely conservative in this game against a really stout NC

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Speaker 3: State defense. Is in C State going to go completely

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Speaker 3: conservative in this game because they're going into a bye

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Speaker 3: week before what potentially could be a monster Atlanta game

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Speaker 3: ACC Atlanta game against Boston College. It's quite interesting to see, like,

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Speaker 3: you know, the offense that's being run by the wolf Pack.

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Speaker 3: Right now, they're mixing in eleven and twenty one packages,

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Speaker 3: and when they do those, they have a heavy run

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Speaker 3: tendency about seventy eight percent, So they may, you know,

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Speaker 3: ditch some of the personnel that is around passing and

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Speaker 3: may just completely hand off and try to win. The

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Speaker 3: reason I like the first half under instead of the

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Speaker 3: full game is if LA Tech does hang around which stuck.

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Speaker 3: He likes it, and I can understand why there might

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Speaker 3: be a scramble at the end to get some points

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Speaker 3: on the board for Ency State to open up the

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Speaker 3: playbook and actually do something to keep some dist college

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Speaker 3: football playoff futures in play. But I think a first

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Speaker 3: half under here is the play. I'm just waiting to

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Speaker 3: hear on Austin Kendall whether he's going to play. It

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Speaker 3: doesn't look like he's going to play. Aaron Allen's taking

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Speaker 3: first team reps. If he's the quarterback first half under,

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Speaker 3: I don't know. He's listed as the one on the

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Speaker 3: depth chart. So that just came out this afternoon.

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Speaker 2: Kendall so and the line ticked down, it got almost

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Speaker 2: got off the twenty one. I think he's playing, so

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Speaker 2: I'm likely going to be on La Tech if I can,

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Speaker 2: I would love a twenty. All right, it's time to

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Speaker 2: move on to what you've all been waiting for, the

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Speaker 2: marquee games of the weekend. It's another fabulous weekend of

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Speaker 2: college football.

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Speaker 3: Let's check out the marque matchups.

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Speaker 2: We'll all end up betting for week five. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's start with your Hogs. This game is at wind Bett,

335
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Speaker 2: Arkansas for this noon kick in Athens, Georgia. By the way,

336
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Speaker 2: our friend, our military friend, has his tickets and everything

337
00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,360
Speaker 2: was good. A lot of our listeners were asking about that.

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Speaker 2: Consider you guys all extended family. We sweat games together.

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Speaker 2: People have followers at my house in our bar all

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Speaker 2: the time, so it was nice to see people caring

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Speaker 2: about our friend traveling to Athens. Let's hope he can

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Speaker 2: get there and get a cover and maybe a shot

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Speaker 2: at a win. But uh, over under forty eight in

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Speaker 2: this game. Look, I'll I'll tell you. I'm on Arkansas

345
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Speaker 2: plus eighteen and a half. I like the manything over seventeen.

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Speaker 2: I just don't think that they're getting enough love in

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Speaker 2: the market. What do they need to do? They were

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Speaker 2: underdogs to Texas and Texas A and M. They won

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Speaker 2: by double digits. Won their other two games against a

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Speaker 2: group of five teams by combined fifty six points and

351
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Speaker 2: covered both. Speaking of covers, Sammy covers Sam Pittman. All

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Speaker 2: he does is cover.

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Speaker 4: He's now what eleven and two against the spread, covering

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Speaker 4: by over a touchdown a game, eighty four point six

355
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Speaker 4: percent at.

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Speaker 2: Perfect five and h away from home. So Arkansas, what

357
00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 2: they've done is they beefed up. They're off, They're off.

358
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Speaker 2: A pimp him is really just improved the offensive. An

359
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,200
Speaker 2: offensive line guy, offensive and defensive lines. That's what they needed.

360
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Speaker 2: They had the talent that's made a world of difference

361
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Speaker 2: for Barry Odam's defense and for the Arkansas offense. Georgea

362
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:12,760
Speaker 2: is a juggernaut, no doubt. I have them power right

363
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Speaker 2: and now is my number one team in the country,

364
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Speaker 2: But I think Arkansas might be a top ten team.

365
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Speaker 2: And what I think is happening here and this is

366
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Speaker 2: gonna make or break my weekends. If you're tailing me,

367
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Speaker 2: I'm either going to have If I'm right about this hypothesis,

368
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Speaker 2: I'm gonna have a great weekend. If I'm wrong, I'll

369
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Speaker 2: have a terrible weekend. I think the market is valuing

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Speaker 2: priors and pedigree too much this year for these elite teams.

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Speaker 2: And the reasoning is that the I think that the

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00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,199
Speaker 2: gap between the elite teams generally elite teams and the

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00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 2: rest of college football has closed because all these other

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Speaker 2: teams are way more experienced due to COVID rules, super seniors,

375
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Speaker 2: transfer rules, while the elite teams still lost all of

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Speaker 2: their NFL talent. It's why Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma have

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Speaker 2: just looked so poor, and then you have these other

378
00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 2: teams that look that are exceeding expectations. So I think

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Speaker 2: Arkansas can they get I basically just think they need

380
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Speaker 2: to get to like fourteen Can they get to at

381
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Speaker 2: least fourteen points? I think they can. They have enough

382
00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 2: explosive players. What do we know about Georgia. Let me

383
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 2: know they have a dominant defense. They struggle to run

384
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Speaker 2: the ball though, and you can't really run on Arkansas.

385
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Speaker 2: I think Arkansas will show some simulated pressures can take

386
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Speaker 2: away the explosive play. And if Georgia gets a lead here,

387
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Speaker 2: big backdoor chance. I don't think that Kirby wants to

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Speaker 2: run it up against Pittman or they're still on good

389
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Speaker 2: terms and Georgia just likes to eat the clock once

390
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 2: they go up big. I think Arkansas is being disrespected

391
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Speaker 2: here in the market. I'm assuming that Burks and Jefferson

392
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Speaker 2: are healthy. That's a big key here. I know Georgia

393
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 2: gets their tight at five star tight end back and

394
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Speaker 2: likely Tyke Smith or safety. But I think there's too

395
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Speaker 2: much value in the Hogs that pass up and again

396
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,160
Speaker 2: catching eighteen and a half with the total of forty eight.

397
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Speaker 2: It's a lot of points, and I think Arkansas will

398
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Speaker 2: deliver again. And you agree, right woo pig silly, absolute

399
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Speaker 2: dumpster five.

400
00:19:58,320 --> 00:19:59,640
Speaker 3: I don't know how we win a game the rest

401
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 3: of the year. Just blow a program up, give us

402
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:07,760
Speaker 3: a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football. Absolutely agree. I

403
00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 3: am on Arkansas this week, and you know, if this

404
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:13,240
Speaker 3: is the first time, welcome, it's the first time you've

405
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 3: ever listened to the podcast. I'm a two time graduate

406
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 3: staring at a room full of Arkansas shit all over

407
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Speaker 3: the place. So I'm gonna do this as unbiased as possible.

408
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,399
Speaker 3: There is a tremendous amount of respect between these two

409
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Speaker 3: head coaches. In twenty fourteen, Kirby was on the Alabama

410
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 3: staff and He was instrumental in getting a contract offer

411
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,400
Speaker 3: for Sam Pittman, who was at Arkansas under Bret bi Lama.

412
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,879
Speaker 3: Pittman turned it down and Bilama made a public cry

413
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Speaker 3: baby act and said, you know, you can't leave us.

414
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Speaker 3: We'll give you more money. And then when Kirby took

415
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 3: over at Georgia, the first hire was Sam Pittman as

416
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 3: offensive line coach and recruiter, and Bilama threw another fit,

417
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,440
Speaker 3: grabbed all the offensive line, went to Sam Pittman's house

418
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 3: and fable and said, tell all these kids in the

419
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 3: face that you're leaving. So, I mean, like there is

420
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 3: so much And then Pittman went to Georgia, they went

421
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 3: to the National championship game. He was their lead recruit.

422
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:04,120
Speaker 3: All five offensive linemen on the Georgia offensive line were

423
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Speaker 3: recruited by Sam Pittman. This is and there are very

424
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 3: very warm relations between these two head coaches, between Pittman

425
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 3: and the players for Georgia. So there's none of this

426
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 3: Derek Mason and Dan Mullen trying to fight each other

427
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 3: on the field type shit, right, I mean, there's none

428
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 3: of that going on. So put the history aside. We're

429
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,400
Speaker 3: looking at you know, I think Pittman's eleven and three

430
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,640
Speaker 3: against seven and three against the spread in last year's

431
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 3: ten ten game season, and he's done nothing but cover

432
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,719
Speaker 3: this year, and oddsmakers just haven't been able to catch up.

433
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 3: So you have to ask, like, what is the measuring

434
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 3: stick for these guys? And most people want to handicap

435
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,120
Speaker 3: the Arkansas offense against the Georgia defense so quickly. Yes,

436
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 3: Arkansas wants to pound the football with four different backs

437
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,160
Speaker 3: and offensive line that is one of the best run

438
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 3: blocking units in the nation and they run the ball

439
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 3: sixty nine percent of the time. When Arkansas gets behind schedule,

440
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 3: you can look for kJ Jefferson to go just deep routs.

441
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 3: There's no in between, there's no meat in the sandwich.

442
00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 3: We're going verts, we're going down. And there there are

443
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 3: issues against this Georgia defense. They're number one and almost

444
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 3: absolutely everything. And I know we can argue schedule, but

445
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 3: this team is number one in standard down success rate

446
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 3: and explosiveness. Historic number is being put up as far

447
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 3: as knocking teams off schedule. Arkansas can be in passing

448
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 3: downs pretty quick. You want to pressure kJ, get a

449
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 3: crowded pocket and get him in passing downs. But number

450
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 3: two teams are leaving Traylon Burks and single single man

451
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 3: coverage and he is absolutely burning every I think he

452
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 3: can burn any dB in the nation in single coverage.

453
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 3: And that's where the Tayke Smith you know watching him

454
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 3: come in from West Virginia. Last year, he was ranked

455
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,920
Speaker 3: number five overall of all slot corners as far as

456
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 3: coverage grades for West Virginia. If he is back, maybe

457
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 3: he's the guy that can guard Traylon Burks and one

458
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 3: on one coverage. We'll have to see. It's a big

459
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 3: it's a big data point we need to watch. But

460
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:50,879
Speaker 3: if you're watching the art, I don't.

461
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 2: Think he'll play the full game. He might not play

462
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 2: every snap if he does play, too.

463
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 3: But he'll be in third downs, like yeah, he'll be

464
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 3: in third downs in passing downs. Right, So, if Arkansas

465
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,199
Speaker 3: stays in standard downs and move and is moving the

466
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 3: line of scrimmage and getting a push in the pocket,

467
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 3: and you just didn't bet live game, get your money

468
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 3: down on Arkansas to win this game outright, because if

469
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 3: that offensive line gets a push against the Georgia defensive line,

470
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,479
Speaker 3: they're going to own the trench. Now that said, if

471
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,479
Speaker 3: Arkansas's in passing downs, pretty quick. The spreads are definitely

472
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 3: gonna come into play now. As for the defense, that's

473
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 3: where the real handicap I think comes in. And that's

474
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 3: how I got on Arkansas. I loved the under for

475
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 3: the fact that I just didn't see a lot out

476
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 3: of Georgia's defense, and I know how Arkansas is going

477
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 3: to move the ball. They're not fast anymore. Last year

478
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 3: I think they were tenth in tempo. Now they're like

479
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 3: seventy third. Georgia's outside the top one hundred and tempo.

480
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 3: If you look at Todd Munkins, you know, pro style offense,

481
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 3: it's just not fast. Where's Georgia's running backs? So Meir White,

482
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 3: James Cook, not explosive, not creating separation, not creating misstackles.

483
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 3: They have not generated runs over fifteen yards.

484
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 2: They're just above national average and rush success rate in lineyards.

485
00:23:56,040 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 3: What is this Georgia team? What is this rushing attack? Secondly, JT. Daniels,

486
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 3: he's getting over an oblique injury that had him set

487
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 3: out of the UAB game. Now we find out that

488
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 3: he has a lack injury, which goes between his throwing

489
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 3: shoulder and his spine. He's connected on just three attempts

490
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 3: over twenty yards this season. This is not the air

491
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 3: raid offensive usc where he's going downfield all the time.

492
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 1: JT.

493
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 3: Danmels is banged up, He's not throwing. And if you

494
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 3: want to do stetson Bennett like you did last year, fine,

495
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 3: but Arkansas is going to cover against that too. Barry

496
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 3: odom As a defensive coordinator of Arkansas is gonna win

497
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 3: the Broils Award. The Razorbacks will not give up an

498
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 3: explosive play. I talk every week about how they take

499
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 3: something away. This week, no explosive plays coming whatsoever, So

500
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 3: that should be good enough to take it under. But finally,

501
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 3: look at last year's opener between Pittman and Smart. You

502
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 3: want to know if you should take Arkansas or not.

503
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 3: Public has tickets, Sharps have tickets. We all have tickets

504
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 3: on Arkansas. But if you look at what happened between

505
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 3: Pittman and Smart last year, Arkansas went into halftime with

506
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 3: a real shot to upset. Now I only had like

507
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 3: five points.

508
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 2: They're up seven to five, yes, yes, seven to five Georgia.

509
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 2: Then they were only tround thirteen, ten under thirty. There

510
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 2: was a block punt and a pick six.

511
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 3: Gonna right, right, Dwan Mavis out Stetson Bennett in. There

512
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 3: was some padding on the score coming in and once

513
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 3: that happened, Georgia and Kirby Smart was all run, sit

514
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 3: on the ball, burn the clock go all the way down.

515
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 3: So one of two things is going to happen here

516
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 3: in this game. Arkansas is going to get a push

517
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 3: in the trench on standard downs on offense, and what happened,

518
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 3: what they did to Texas A and M, they're going

519
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 3: to be able to do to Georgia. They can win

520
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 3: the game. Or Georgia is going to be the best

521
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 3: defense in the nation. Get Arkansas into passing downs and

522
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 3: get a two touchdown lead, and then sit on that

523
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 3: tempo that's outside the top one hundred and once they.

524
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 2: Get that, Jefferson's Jefferson is probably not good enough accurate

525
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 2: enough to lead them.

526
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think so either. But if there is

527
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 3: a two touchdown or three touchdown lead, that back door

528
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 3: is wide open for Sam Pittman. Oh. By the way,

529
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 3: you know, Arkansas has been practicing at like nine o'clock

530
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 3: in the morning all week. This game is an eleven

531
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 3: am Central kickoff.

532
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 2: The way I think that helped Arkansas. I think it's

533
00:25:58,359 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: crazy exactly.

534
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 3: This is the eleven Am Jefferson Pilot kickoff from the

535
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 3: SEC days. Gimme Arkansas, give me all these points, play

536
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 3: it live. If Arkansas is moving the trench on standardowns,

537
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 3: they can win this game. I like the under two.

538
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see how I look. The Georgia defense is

539
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 2: obviously dominant, but this will be their biggest test by far.

540
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 2: They their SEC wins came against Vanderbilt and South Carolina,

541
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 2: two completely inept offenses. They played UA b who just

542
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 2: never can score against these power five teams, and then

543
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 2: they played Clemson. They won ten to three. That game

544
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 2: looks less and less impressive with each each time Clemson

545
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 2: takes the field, and we see how bad Clemson is

546
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: on offense. So this is by far the best offense

547
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 2: still face Woo Pig sueye, Baby, woo pig sueye. We'll

548
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 2: get the day started on Saturday. All right, Let's move

549
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 2: on to the second marquee game of the day of

550
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 2: the three thirty CBS slot, the one everyone is ititching four?

551
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 2: What a day of college football? At win bet O,

552
00:26:55,680 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 2: Miss is a fourteen point underdog at Alabama over under

553
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 2: seventy nine, just a massive total. You're gonna hear all

554
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 2: week about Satan being what twenty three and zero against

555
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 2: his assistance, But it's not the business we're in. We're

556
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,199
Speaker 2: in the covering business. I think he's thirteen and ten

557
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,959
Speaker 2: against the spread in those games. Last year, Olemiss did

558
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 2: cover in an absolute shootout, a shootout that was what

559
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 2: forty four forty four in the fourth quarter. Alabama broke

560
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 2: a run late to win that game. I think sixty

561
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 2: three to forty seven or sixty three forty eight and

562
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 2: ole Miss got the cover. We disagree on this game.

563
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 2: I know you like Alabama Again, my pot says, I

564
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 2: don't think these top teams are as good after losing

565
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 2: so much talent as some of these experienced teams. The

566
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: Old Miss defense has improved. Last year's a dumpster fire.

567
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 2: They're really just rushing three, dropping eight, taking away explosive plays.

568
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 2: This year doing a much better job at that. The

569
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 2: offense is even better than last year. I thought this

570
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: Alabama defense is going to be dominant, like best in

571
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 2: the nation. It hasn't been. When they played Florida, a

572
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: team that cannot throw the ball at all, and Anthony

573
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 2: Richardson didn't play their option runs gashed Alabama all day.

574
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 2: Well you know who does bet You know who does

575
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,360
Speaker 2: that better than Florida and you know can actually throw

576
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 2: the ball? Is All Miss? You're I think they can

577
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 2: keep up with Bama again. And there's some troubling things

578
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 2: with this Bama offensive line with Bryce Young. It's not

579
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 2: a tip. It's not your twenty twenty Alabama offense with

580
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 2: Mac Jones. And you just look at the deep threats

581
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 2: to start connecting. So far, I think All Miss can

582
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 2: trade scores once again. Wouldn't be shocked if they get

583
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 2: a couple scores now. Baalbaum's against the stage drives all

584
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: day running the ball. They should have tons of success

585
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 2: doing that. They should have tons of success in the

586
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: red zone just running the ball. But keep in mind

587
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 2: Lane Kiffin probably the best play caller in the country.

588
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 2: I had a bye last week. He said two weeks

589
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 2: to prepare for this game. I'm sure he has all

590
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 2: kinds of new wrinkles, new formations, new looks for this game.

591
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 2: He probably spent two months in the summer game planning

592
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 2: for this game. Whereas saban It's I probably wasn't thinking

593
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 2: about it. He sticks about his team in every single game.

594
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 5: Now, everybody gets all excited about the beginning of the season.

595
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 5: You know, you get excited about getting married, all right,

596
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 5: But after you're married for a while, you know you

597
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,239
Speaker 5: got to have a process to make it work. We

598
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 5: need to have a process to make it work. And

599
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 5: every game that we play, every game that we play.

600
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 2: So I think this ole Miss team will It's just

601
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 2: an electric, electric offense. I mean, what they've done so

602
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 2: far this year corral the Heisman favorite. They can run

603
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 2: the ball here, I think, which sets up their pass.

604
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: They're gonna have all kinds of designed runs. Just it's

605
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 2: this is a powerhouse offense. I think this is too

606
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 2: many points. Again, I'm fading these top teams, and I

607
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 2: think are getting too much love in the market. I'm

608
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 2: already on ole Miss. I played them plus fifteen and

609
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 2: a half. I like them. I wouldn't go below fourteen.

610
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 2: And then also on top of all that, the back

611
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 2: door could be wide open in this game. I mean,

612
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 2: if they're down twenty one seventeen late, this Whole Miss

613
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 2: offense can easily sneak in the back door.

614
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 3: They can always come that.

615
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 2: Give me the rebels, Hotty Toddy, make your case for rolltide.

616
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 3: Well I put in I put fourteen in the app

617
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 3: and you know, I suggested to anybody that didn't have

618
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 3: access to that flat fourteen and you have fourteen and

619
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 3: a half, would I would buy it the hook because

620
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 3: there definitely is you know, backdoor potential here considering what

621
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 3: Lane wants to prove against his old bosson and you know,

622
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 3: these two were really close too, but that doesn't mean

623
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 3: they don't want to blow each other out. The beginning

624
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 3: of the season, all I ever talked about was paying

625
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 3: twenty twenty Alabama prices in a twenty twenty one season,

626
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 3: and that brings true with this total. The projection for

627
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 3: this total is seventy four and I think with last

628
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 3: year is one hundred and ten plus points. The over

629
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 3: is a very popular play, but this Bama team, they

630
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 3: don't throw it deep on offense, and the secondary is

631
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 3: now a positivity instead of a liability like it was

632
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 3: last year. And let's not forget that last year's game

633
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 3: there was a ton of precipitation and any cut made

634
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 3: by an offensive player was able to take it to

635
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 3: the house. That was huge for the offense last year.

636
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 3: You get that level of you know, you get the

637
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 3: DeVonta Smith's and players that are now in the NFL.

638
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 3: On that field, of course, there was that many points.

639
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 3: But there's no pre sip in the forecast for this game.

640
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 3: So starting with Alabama when they have the ball, let's

641
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 3: give some credit to the Old Miss defense with DJ

642
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 3: Diurkin Chris Partridge. The Rebels are twelfth and defending past explosiveness.

643
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 3: More importantly, they have an outstanding rank of six and

644
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 3: passing downs explosiveness, and we've talked every week about you know,

645
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 3: what do you call him?

646
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 2: Captain?

647
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 3: Checkdown on Bryce Young throwing in the flats all the time.

648
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 3: So you know, Alabama may be able to sustain drives.

649
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 3: But this new look scheme for Old Miss mentioned by Saban.

650
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 3: Saban said this week in as presser this they look

651
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 3: like Iowa State, and that's a real problem. It's a

652
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 3: multiple front A three two six, A three three five.

653
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 3: They're going to switch out maybe two down defensive linemen

654
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 3: and the key is to sell out and stop the

655
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 3: explosive play. I think Old Miss is going to have

656
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 3: success doing that thanks to some you know, transfer portal

657
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 3: wins that they had in the front seven. Old Miss

658
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 3: is very respectable in defending the big play, and that

659
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 3: kind of brings me to Bryce Young because you and

660
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 3: I talk about it every week, and really maybe the

661
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 3: lack of Bryce Young throwing deep, he's limited in attempts downfield.

662
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 3: Crazy enough, he's thirty three of thirty three on passes

663
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 3: behind the line of scrimmage. The Bama offense isn't defined

664
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 3: by the runner pass, right. You can't just say, well,

665
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 3: they're good at running or they're good at passing, because

666
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 3: everything is like a swing out to Brian Robinson or

667
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 3: Jace McClellan or you know, Jamison Williams on a shuttle

668
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 3: or John Metchi on a sweep. Right, It's about what

669
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 3: those players are doing after the catch. And you got

670
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 3: to keep an eye on Cameron Latoo. So JELLEL Billingsley,

671
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 3: the tight end that we love in the National Championship

672
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 3: Game last year, you know, he had some off field

673
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 3: troubles disciplinary reasons, and that's given Cameron Latoo an opportunity

674
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 3: and he has now become the best third down converting

675
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 3: weapon for Bryce Young. And because ole miss is not

676
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 3: going to allow on explosive play, there's gonna be a

677
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 3: lot of methodical drives here from Alabama. They're going to

678
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 3: be successful in moving the chains, but getting something twenty

679
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 3: yards downfield is just not going to happen. And Bama's

680
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 3: tempo is not what it was last year. They are

681
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 3: a low tempo team. Now they are the seventh best

682
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 3: in the nation finishing drives. So I expect long Alabama

683
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 3: drives that end up with touchdowns. And so that really

684
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 3: kind of plays into the reasoning why I was on

685
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 3: the under. Now, what about the old miss offense. Everything

686
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 3: Stuck said is right. The Bama tempo is one hundredth

687
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 3: but lane Train just continues to be bull racing a

688
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 3: third in the nation in place per minute. But make

689
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 3: no mistake, this is the number one offense in the

690
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 3: nation in standard downs explosiveness. The majority of those plays

691
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 3: come with a new wrinkle from last year, and that's

692
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 3: the usage of the ten formation. No tight ends. Corral

693
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 3: flashes zone raad, he pulls it back, he looks for

694
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 3: a target over the middle, and that's usually do Ontario Drummond.

695
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 3: He's been the man over the middle catching Corral's passes

696
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 3: on these zone reads, while Jerry and Ee is sometimes

697
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 3: you know, knocking off in the flats and catching balls

698
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 3: and having explosive plays from there. I'm confident that Bama

699
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 3: from a secondary and a linebacker position can kind of

700
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 3: put you know, a little bit of a stop and

701
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 3: how fast wants to go. Ole Miss is gonna throw

702
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 3: big punches right out of the gate to start this game.

703
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 3: You may get a live line on them all the

704
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,760
Speaker 3: way on Alabama all the way down to a pick

705
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 3: maybe less than minus three, because I can see Alabama

706
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 3: trying to adjust after three series. I mean, it seems

707
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 3: to be having with Pete Golding every time. So if

708
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 3: you don't want to buy the fourteen and a half

709
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 3: for the fifteen or the fourteen, I think you're gonna

710
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 3: get Alabama at a pretty good price. After the first quarter,

711
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 3: you know Obama is going to cover this game. The

712
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 3: under for me is the biggest play from a volume perspective,

713
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 3: from a dollars perspective is the under. But at fourteen,

714
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 3: Bama is a buye.

715
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 2: I disagree, but that's what makes this podcast great, and

716
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 2: look out for the tight end of the seam. Alabama

717
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,919
Speaker 2: struggled with that, and I don't disagree on the under though,

718
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 2: I mean I think that that's Bama's going to have

719
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 2: to put together long drives, keep the old miss offense.

720
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 2: Off the field, They're not gonna have many explosive plays.

721
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 2: So and this is a huge number. It's scary on

722
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 2: the surface after what happened last year, but I do

723
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 2: think it's a tad high, all right. So for our

724
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 2: final marquee matchup of the weekend, there's many more really

725
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: intruting matchups that we're gonna get too shortly. That's tough.

726
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 2: Cincinnati Notre Dame at Cincinnati, a one and a half

727
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 2: point favorite at Notre Dame in southam where Notre Dame

728
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:10,839
Speaker 2: has now won twenty six straight games. I can tell

729
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 2: you just right away, I love Cincinnati. I make this

730
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 2: over three. I think I keep downgrading Notre Dame every

731
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 2: single week that they play. And I mean, let's just

732
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 2: take a look at what Notre Dame has done this year.

733
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 2: They are undefeated, but they beat a winless Florida State

734
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 2: team in overtime. Florida State then lost at home to

735
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 2: Jacksonville State. They stole a win at home over Toledo,

736
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,439
Speaker 2: needed a last minute touchdown. Toledo then lost at home

737
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 2: to Colorado State. The next week. They beat Perdue by fourteen. Okay,

738
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 2: but they only led seventeen to thirteen in the fourth quarter,

739
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 2: and we're actually out gained by a boiler Makers offense

740
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 2: that would scored like four points against Illinois last week,

741
00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 2: and then last week they beat Wisconsin forty one to thirteen. Wow,

742
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 2: right now, one of the most misleading final scores I've

743
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,720
Speaker 2: ever seen in my entire life. Notre Dame actually trailed

744
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,399
Speaker 2: thirteen to ten in the fourth quarter, and then they

745
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 2: scored thirty one straight thanks to two pick sixes and

746
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 2: a kick return for a touchdown. They ran the ball

747
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 2: in that game thirty four times for nine yards, gave

748
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 2: up six sacks. All right, let's take out the quarterback stats.

749
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 2: The running backs around the ball twenty times for thirty

750
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 2: nine yards. Wisconsin outgained Notre Dame three hundred and eighteen

751
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 2: to two forty eight. They were outplayed. They got the

752
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 2: bounce as Graham Mertz was a disaster. That's it. The

753
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 2: Iris can't run the ball. Their offensive line is a mess.

754
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 2: Having to replace all the talent that they lost last year.

755
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,360
Speaker 2: They've already allowed twenty sacks in four games. In twenty nineteen,

756
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 2: they gout sixteen and thirteen games. Chosey where this offensive

757
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:47,959
Speaker 2: line is? How they gonna move the ball against Cincy,

758
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 2: they can't run it. It's gonna come down to Jack Cone,

759
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 2: who's practicing a hobble. Jack Cope, who's already one of

760
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 2: the most immobile quarterbacks in the country, trying to throw

761
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 2: against one of the best secondaries in the country with

762
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 2: one of the top well, I think the top cornerbacks

763
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 2: maybe the best in the nation. I mean, their cornerbacks

764
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 2: are all excellent. I don't see that working out too

765
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 2: well for Notre Dame. Cincinnati has many more pass to

766
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 2: success on the offensive side of the ball. There's also

767
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 2: a couple other advantages here for Cincinnati. This team's fired up.

768
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 2: I don't know if they need any more motivation, but

769
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 2: Marcus Freeman left them left their defensive coordinator. I went

770
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 2: to Notre Dame to take the same job, and they're

771
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:30,280
Speaker 2: pissed about it. So I'm sure the offense ended defense.

772
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,919
Speaker 2: Little extra motivation didn't factor to my handicap, but worth

773
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 2: mentioning what did factor in the bandicap. Cincinnati had a

774
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 2: bye week last week, but two weeks to prepare for

775
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 2: this game, so I'm sure they're gonna come up with

776
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 2: a gonna have a few new looks new wrinkles for

777
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 2: Notre Dame and just the Cincinnati has been the clearly

778
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 2: better team this year. Notre Dame is of just a

779
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 2: completely fraudulent four and Zho it's back to Operation Fade

780
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 2: Notre Dame. I think their twenty six game home winning

781
00:37:56,160 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 2: streak ends without Flukes. This week, Cincinnati gets it done

782
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 2: and positions itself right in the middle of the Collgewall

783
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,240
Speaker 2: playoff discussion. Do you agree or disagree?

784
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 3: I agree, and I think it's worth noting that Marcus

785
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 3: Freeman leaves Cincinnati and there's zero drop off in the

786
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 3: defensive production, zero, although Notre Dame's defense doesn't look great

787
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 3: from week to week. So again, this was just another

788
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 3: way and I did the write up on Action If

789
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 3: you want to read more about some of the numbers,

790
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 3: I'm going to throw out here a full breakdown of

791
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 3: this game. It'll be out there on Action network dot Com. Listen.

792
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 3: This is another game, another week of me trying to

793
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 3: make a case for Notre Dame because I think, as

794
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 3: an experienced handicapper, when you fall in love with a team,

795
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 3: you try to play the other side and play Devil's advocate,

796
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 3: and I just can't do it for Notre Dame. Brian Kelly,

797
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 3: former Cincinnati coach, takes Marcus Freeman away. Most recent DC

798
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 3: under Luke Fickle is just zero drop off in the

799
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 3: Cincinnati defense. And we can talk about the coverage rank

800
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 3: of thirty fifth or the players like Arkwan Bush are

801
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 3: going to be playing at the NFL level. But the

802
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,919
Speaker 3: handicap in this is that Cincinnati is the number one

803
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 3: pass rush team in the nation PERFF. That is going

804
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 3: to answer Notre Dame offensive line that cannot protect a

805
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 3: quarterback that has no mobility whatsoever. The Irish offensive line

806
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 3: has led a rank of one hundred and twenty third

807
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 3: in havoc allowed, second to last and nation and tackles

808
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 3: for loss. Jack Cone has the highest pressure to sack

809
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 3: ratio in the nation and it's not even close, like

810
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 3: by ten percent more than the guy that's in fourth place.

811
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 3: The big question is if the Bearcats offense can stay

812
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 3: on schedule. The Irish defense is respectable in that aspect.

813
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 3: There are eleventh and success rate and against explosiveness and

814
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 3: standard downs, but when Notre Dame gets into passing downs,

815
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 3: bad things happen to them. The explosiveness from Jerome Ford

816
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 3: and Desmond Ritter is not really twenty twenty peak what

817
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 3: we saw last year. But standard downs is really where

818
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 3: the big battle is here.

819
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 1: Now.

820
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 3: Weather has become a part of this game. There was

821
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 3: rain in the forecast in South Bend. It's fallen over

822
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,840
Speaker 3: the last twelve hours. Don't know if that's going to

823
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 3: come back. I know they're in the Midwest. We're gonna

824
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,320
Speaker 3: talk about Friday night lights here a little bit with Tulsa,

825
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 3: but there's a lot of rain in the Midwest. Bearcats,

826
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 3: the Bearcats offense is twenty fifth in line yards. Notre

827
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 3: Dame's offense is one hundred and twenty eighth in line yards.

828
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:08,879
Speaker 3: You want to throw some weather in this and see

829
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 3: who's got the better run game. It is not even close.

830
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 3: Everybody in the nation besides maybe Yukon, beats Notre Dame.

831
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 3: So this is all systems to go on. Cincinnati. We

832
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 3: have to cross our fingers that the voodoo magic that

833
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 3: we talk about area is black voodoo magic that always

834
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 3: comes and gets us with turnovers and you know, special

835
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 3: teams touchdowns that that isn't branded as like you know

836
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 3: luck of the Irish and gives us five turnovers and

837
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 3: a handful of fourth quarter touchdowns. So listen, it's all

838
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 3: It's all go on Cincinnati here. Let's just avoid any

839
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 3: crazy mistakes that seems to get Notre Dame to the window.

840
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 2: By the way, that Wisconsin game, Mertz well exactly as

841
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 2: I thought. I said, the only way that Wisconsin lo

842
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 2: is it Mertz vomits, which he did. But all I

843
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: said is that there Notreame is not going to run

844
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 2: the ball. They' gonna be third and long and then

845
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 2: they're just gonna be sacks all day. That's everything that

846
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 2: was happening on every Notre Dame possession. So I think

847
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 2: you're gonna see the same thing here, and you're going

848
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: up against the better secondary. Yeah, and if there's wind

849
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 2: and rain, I don't know how not Today moves the ball.

850
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 2: All right. Before we get to a few other highly

851
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 2: anticipated matchups, quick reminder to our listeners, The Big Bets

852
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 2: on Campus podcast is presented by win Bet Sportsbook and

853
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,560
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854
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855
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Speaker 2: qualifying deposit you place your first bet within ten days.

859
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Speaker 2: That bet is risk free up to one thousand dollars

860
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Speaker 2: in eligible states one thousand dollars. So to take advantage

861
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 2: of this win bet offer, just click on the Action

862
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 2: Network link in this episode description. Must be twenty one

863
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 2: or older to gamble, no one to stop before you

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00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 2: start gambling problem call one hundred gambler. All right, let's

865
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:54,360
Speaker 2: get back to the show. Let's hit the rundown and

866
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 2: hit some games rapid fire style. We'll start BC plus

867
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 2: fifteen Clemson. I'm seeing ninety percent of bets on BC.

868
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 2: Don't care again. I'll go down with my hypothesis this weekend.

869
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 2: I'll be on Boston College to Clemson defense very good.

870
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: This offense stinks like it's hard to say. You have

871
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 2: to throw off the priors. And by the way, now,

872
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 2: if Clemson is down their two started defensive tackles, Boston

873
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 2: College might have one of the best offensive lines in

874
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 2: the country. So I think that they might actually have

875
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 2: a little bit more success on the ground because of

876
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 2: some of these Clempson injuries that some people are thinking of.

877
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 2: I also think Clemson is a bad spot We took

878
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 2: about this last week like they're two and two. This

879
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:34,280
Speaker 2: is a team to you either go to the Colletorable

880
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:36,399
Speaker 2: Playoff for your season is over. They have no chance

881
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 2: of going to COLLG Football Playoff. Zero zero point zero

882
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:47,760
Speaker 2: zero zero zero zero. Dabo is done. This offense looks awful.

883
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 2: Just look at it. They have not scored more than

884
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 2: fourteen points in regulation against an FBS opponent. They scored

885
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 2: three against Georgia, they scored fourteen against NC State, they

886
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:03,240
Speaker 2: scored fourteen against Georgia Tech, and now they're laying fifteen.

887
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 2: I don't care if you say, oh, it's trapped, it's

888
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 2: Clemson get right game. We thought that last week. Just

889
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 2: the market is not adjusting, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

890
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 2: But this offense is awful. The offensive line, the interier.

891
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 2: The offensive line is a mess. DJ looks so uncomfortable

892
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 2: in the pocket. They have no running game to speak of.

893
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 2: They think about it that Georgia Tech game. Remember I

894
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 2: was saying, all right, I'll give him a pass. But

895
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 2: it's so bizarre that Georgia Tech just dropped eight and

896
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 2: they couldn't figure it out. They couldn't run the ball either.

897
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 2: They had a lightning delay, and they couldn't figure out anything.

898
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 2: Like teams are starting to figure out how to go

899
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 2: how to defend these you know, spread attacks, these more

900
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 2: three three, five, three two six looks dropping eight. And

901
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 2: it's not just line up out there in Clemson, Ohio State.

902
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 2: You know Oklahoma can just go bomb teams. So you

903
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 2: know Boston College won't be afraid of this stage. They're

904
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 2: playing really good football. The other schedule has been soft.

905
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 2: But I think this line is too high, just because

906
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:59,800
Speaker 2: I think Clemson their offense is outside the top fifty,

907
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 2: might even be worse. There's nothing you can say good

908
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 2: about this offense. You can look at any metric you want.

909
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,240
Speaker 2: Hugle Aley's not playing well. The offensive line is a disaster.

910
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 2: Now they're down to their third running back, Shipley is out.

911
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 2: Their wide receivers aren't getting enough separation. Everything is a

912
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:17,320
Speaker 2: mess on this offense. The play calling hasn't been great.

913
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 2: So look, I'm maybe Boston College gets shut out, maybe

914
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 2: Clemson shuts not fourteen nothing. I'm taking the fifteen points.

915
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 2: Don't care if it how square it is. Agree or disagree,

916
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 2: Oh I agree.

917
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 3: I'm not running to going back Boston College. You know,

918
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 3: because you mass covered against them, and they're still, you know,

919
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,439
Speaker 3: reeling from playing with Grossel as the quarterback. But there

920
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 3: are numbers there to suggest that you're you're completely justified

921
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 3: in this play. Our Action Network projection makes it twelve.

922
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 3: S P plus makes it thirteen. It's a little bit

923
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,720
Speaker 3: too high. People still believing this is a Boston College

924
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 3: defense that is ranked eight and coverage grading by PFF

925
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 3: and guess.

926
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 2: Afily baby Halfley impact again.

927
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 3: Guess how bad the Clemson passing attack is. They're one

928
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 3: hundred and eighth in passing success rate. They can't run

929
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 3: the ball whatsoever. They're one hundred and twenty second in

930
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:07,880
Speaker 3: pass explosiveness. Clemson is god awful, and we don't know

931
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 3: when it's going to stop, and we don't know the

932
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 3: motivation behind the team. So I'm with the side. Is

933
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 3: Boston College.

934
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:18,399
Speaker 2: Another game Indiana twelve and a half point underdogs at

935
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 2: Penn State, not where they had lost DJ Matthews. We

936
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,479
Speaker 2: were counting on him to be an explosive receiver this year.

937
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 2: I think he had like one hundred and twenty yards

938
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 2: of receiving in thirty yards rushing against Cincinnati, including a touchdown.

939
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 2: He's out for the year Florida State transfer. Indiana's offense

940
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 2: finally looked a little bit better last week, but I

941
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 2: think it was Western Kentucky still kind of a mess.

942
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 2: Penn State had just a layup rest game last week

943
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 2: against Villanova. I got nothing here. I would lean towards

944
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 2: the under a bit which I think I saw you

945
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 2: put in make your.

946
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:51,240
Speaker 3: Case, yeah, last minute prep before the podcast. I whiffed

947
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 3: on the opener on this. I really wanted Penn State

948
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 3: at that ten. Didn't get it, so there was no

949
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 3: play coming to that. But this is one team that

950
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:00,280
Speaker 3: I want pretty bad. That photo, what is the photo

951
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 3: of the year from twenty twenty from the pandemic season.

952
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 3: It's Michael Pennis Junior stretching out to touch the football

953
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 3: on the pylon. That came against Penn State. And even

954
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,800
Speaker 3: though James Franklin's running around saying this isn't a revenge game,

955
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 3: you don't think the defensive players are still on that

956
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 3: Penn State team aren't thinking about that last year. It's

957
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:18,800
Speaker 3: a terrible matchup for Indiana. In the passing game, Hoosiers

958
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 3: are one hundred and twenty third pass explosiveness barely any better,

959
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,240
Speaker 3: and success rate with Pennix as he continues to struggle

960
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 3: to find somebody other than Ty Freifogel enter the Penn

961
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 3: State defense. They're second in the nation and coverage grading

962
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 3: tenth and limiting explosive passing and their top twenty five

963
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:36,720
Speaker 3: and finishing drives when teams get down past the forty.

964
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,280
Speaker 3: And this is a resume that includes Wisconsin and Auburn,

965
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 3: so it's not like you know, Acron and Bowling Green here.

966
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 3: As for Sean Clifford, zero turnover worthy plays zero And

967
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if that's just giving me an anxiety

968
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:53,720
Speaker 3: every week and backing Penn State, or if I should

969
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 3: just lay a Heisman ticket because the odds on that

970
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 3: are higher than Penn State actually winning the national championship.

971
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 3: But Clifford's play a clean game every single game. Now

972
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 3: you're gonna read eight tds to two i in t's.

973
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 3: Those i in ts were not great at his as

974
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 3: his fault. So Clifford is having a fantastic season under

975
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 3: new offensive coordinator Mike Yersich. The Indiana defense has been

976
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 3: horrific in scoring opportunities one hundred and seventh and finishing drives.

977
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 3: They're generating no pass rush, they absolutely cannot defend the run.

978
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 3: I can give Indiana some credit for limiting explosiveness. Their

979
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 3: top fifteen in standard and passing downs against explosive plays.

980
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:30,920
Speaker 3: So we're not going to see Clifford just light it

981
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 3: up with Dotson down the field. But to me, the

982
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 3: under is the best play I projected at fifty. The

983
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:40,800
Speaker 3: tempo isn't there, Indiana can stop explosiveness is going to

984
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:42,399
Speaker 3: be long drives. I like the under.

985
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 2: All right, let's I'm gonna mention a few games that

986
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:50,399
Speaker 2: we didn't well Troy, I had to take Troy plus seven. Yeah,

987
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 2: I think you agree there against South Carolina. Troy lost

988
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:56,760
Speaker 2: his twenty four point underdogs last week. It was ugly,

989
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:59,319
Speaker 2: but their defense is good enough to keep this close.

990
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 2: Against the South On offense, it's just so so dreadful.

991
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 3: Well, let's call it out as a guy that put

992
00:48:05,719 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 3: down a lot of money on South Carolina under for season.

993
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 3: Like a couple of lucky wins here by South Carolina.

994
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 2: Yep. Any feel on Florida Kentucky?

995
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 1: Yeah?

996
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 3: No feel here for me. The numbers right, the total

997
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 3: is right. You know what Kentucky wants to do. They

998
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:21,360
Speaker 3: want to get it in the trench. They want to

999
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 3: get it dirty. They want to have a fistfight. But

1000
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 3: you know I mentioned I'm I'm anxious to see what

1001
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 3: Anthony Richards can do.

1002
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 2: Uh.

1003
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 3: He should be fully healthy and good to go here

1004
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 3: against this Kentucky defense. But no play here for me.

1005
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 2: I think Kentucky with the seven and a half. I've

1006
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 2: been really good covering at home over the past two seasons.

1007
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,800
Speaker 3: You got to watch out because Dan Mullen spends the

1008
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 3: last two minutes of every single game looking up what

1009
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 3: the spread is at the Action Network and then trying

1010
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 3: to cover it. I want to hear you fall into

1011
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 3: the voicemails after Dan Mullen does some sort of two

1012
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,760
Speaker 3: minute bullshit to cover this spread. It happens every week.

1013
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:57,839
Speaker 2: Our bar will be wild. I've got a couple people

1014
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:01,279
Speaker 2: coming in, a couple uh lit this podcast coming in,

1015
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 2: and I'll be there. I'll be at the bar of

1016
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:06,279
Speaker 2: noon so apologies in Advunce with my tweets all day.

1017
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 2: A couple other games. I do want to mention Navy

1018
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 2: UCF UCF starting true freshman at quarterback against Navy. I

1019
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 2: like the under there. I think UCF. You know they're

1020
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:21,240
Speaker 2: known as like playing fast and this explosive passing attack.

1021
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:24,719
Speaker 2: But Dalan Gabriel's out, and you know, Navy showed some

1022
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 2: signs of life last week. I thought their defense played

1023
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 2: well and I think that you know, obviously it's a

1024
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 2: triple option team, they're gonna go slow, and I think

1025
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 2: you Dust will go back to you know what he

1026
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 2: did at Auburn, like a more run heavy attack here.

1027
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:41,839
Speaker 2: So I like the under down to like fifty two

1028
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 2: and a half.

1029
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:45,479
Speaker 3: I agree with you. Central Florida third in the nation

1030
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:48,760
Speaker 3: on defense and lineyards. They can absolutely stop this Navy attack.

1031
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:51,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, they got a good defensive line another one that

1032
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:55,399
Speaker 2: you brought up, which I'm getting hesitanted back because of you.

1033
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 2: You're on the other side of the here, and maybe

1034
00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 2: the line keeps going up. I think this might be

1035
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 2: the time to buy loan ball State. But I mean,

1036
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:04,399
Speaker 2: Drew Kut's been a disaster this year. I still can't

1037
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:06,839
Speaker 2: believe I got we cast this. I cast those ball

1038
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 2: State futures last year. I think it might have just

1039
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:10,840
Speaker 2: been their year and everything went their way. But the

1040
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 2: ball State run defense numbers are ugly, right.

1041
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:15,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're really bad. And trust me, the Action Network

1042
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 3: projection I made it five and when the number. I

1043
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 3: was really hoping to get Army below that five. And

1044
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 3: then you know, Sunday hits, all the numbers are refreshed.

1045
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 3: I pop in Army and their triple option offense going

1046
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 3: up against ball State's defense, and I'm staring at ball

1047
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 3: State defense one hundred and eleventh in line yards, one

1048
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,760
Speaker 3: hundred and tenth and rushing success rate. Ball State cannot

1049
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:38,239
Speaker 3: defend the triple Now, there's something to be said about

1050
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 3: what Army's doing on defense. Western Kentucky was able to

1051
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 3: come back on them. Miami Ohio pulled themselves out of

1052
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 3: that cover in that twenty three to ten game that

1053
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:48,399
Speaker 3: should have been a cover by of Ohio. They screwed

1054
00:50:48,440 --> 00:50:50,799
Speaker 3: themselves out of it a lot like what Georgia State

1055
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:52,799
Speaker 3: did giving you know, spot an Army the ball down

1056
00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 3: at the ten yard line there earlier this year. So

1057
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:58,279
Speaker 3: keep an eye on Army's defense, cause an offense like

1058
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:00,879
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky almost back and won that game.

1059
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 2: Any oh, by the way, something you got to talk

1060
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 2: about Zapia real quick, Faily ZAPPI. I don't know if

1061
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 2: I can back them here. I want to plus ten

1062
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 2: and a half at Michigan State. I'm afraid of their

1063
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 2: run defense against Kenneth Walker. Their run defense has been dreadful.

1064
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 2: I mean even Indiana had success running the ball, but

1065
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:19,520
Speaker 2: they couldn't be talked to it. They couldn't stop Tennessee

1066
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 2: Martin on the ground. Army obviously ran all over them.

1067
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:24,879
Speaker 2: I'm still hesitant on that game.

1068
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:27,840
Speaker 3: Anything there you have to bet Western Kentucky here. I

1069
00:51:27,840 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 3: mean it's not just the projection of eight and a half,

1070
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 3: it's the fact that what is Western Kentucky from a

1071
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 3: passing standpoint. You can see it now that we have

1072
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 3: a month's worth of data. I'm staring at you know,

1073
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:40,280
Speaker 3: second in the nation and success rate on passing downs,

1074
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 3: and I'm staring at third and passing down explosiveness for

1075
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:47,319
Speaker 3: the Hilltoppers. What is Michigan State and passing down explosiveness

1076
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:50,880
Speaker 3: defense ninety third? So yes, there are a lot of

1077
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 3: areas where Michigan State can flex their muscles and get

1078
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:56,279
Speaker 3: their points on the board. But when Western Kentucky gets

1079
00:51:56,320 --> 00:52:00,439
Speaker 3: behind schedule, they have the absolute power to go zerk.

1080
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,439
Speaker 3: From an explosive play standpoint, I think Western Kentucky's gonna

1081
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 3: get added right here as we're podcasting.

1082
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually might look at the over too. I

1083
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 2: think it's up to sixty four, so I think Michigan

1084
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 2: State will have success on the ground.

1085
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 3: What's interesting about that, though, Stuck, is that is that

1086
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 3: these Western Kentucky games go by a formula, and they

1087
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 3: start off slow, and then somewhere around the middle of

1088
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,360
Speaker 3: the second quarter, these teams forget about Western Kentucky and

1089
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, there's a blitz of points.

1090
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 3: So while sixty four is like a pretty big number

1091
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 3: and I make it sixty seven, I agree with you,

1092
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 3: but you have to make a decision on whether you

1093
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 3: want to wait for Michigan State to grind it, slow

1094
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:35,360
Speaker 3: it and then kind of oh, whoops, here comes to

1095
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky.

1096
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I make it sixty eight. And yeah, Michigan

1097
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 2: State's corners they've been playing really far back and softer coverage,

1098
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:45,879
Speaker 2: and I think Western Kentucky can exploit that. So maybe

1099
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 2: we'll add zap yaer. All right, let's move on to

1100
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 2: the stake of the week. Smell it, Smell it smelly.

1101
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:54,400
Speaker 3: It's the smell.

1102
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 2: It's quite pungent. Dude, plug your nose, it stinks.

1103
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:01,959
Speaker 3: This is your stak of the week.

1104
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 2: All right, So this is where we talk about the smelliest,

1105
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 2: fishiest lines that everyone looks at and says, WHOA we got?

1106
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 2: I got two here for you, the first and I

1107
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 2: might be on. I apologies in advance to anyone listening.

1108
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna be on both these games. The first

1109
00:53:21,960 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 2: is Florida State minus four and a half. I don't

1110
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 2: know who wants to like four and half Florida State

1111
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 2: right now. They're winless. They lost at home to Jacksonville State.

1112
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 2: They were blown out at the half by Louisville last week.

1113
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:34,759
Speaker 2: Made it respectful what with Louisville Basic just sat on

1114
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 2: the ball in the second half. They're laying four and

1115
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:40,959
Speaker 2: a half at home against three and one Syracuse team.

1116
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 2: But don't be fooled by Syracuse people. Yes they beat

1117
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:46,600
Speaker 2: Liberty last week, but you know they also beat Ohio.

1118
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 2: We see all all about Ohio is and they beat Albany.

1119
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:51,840
Speaker 2: You know they scored seven points against Rutgers and lost

1120
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:55,319
Speaker 2: we last week. What Syracuse did is they became army

1121
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 2: in the shotgun. They start a Garret Trader the Mississippi

1122
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:00,200
Speaker 2: State transfer. They just ran the ball. They're back. They

1123
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 2: rather about fifty three times and the only three that

1124
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 2: they can't sure or can't throw the ball. Yracuse is

1125
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:05,520
Speaker 2: running back Sean Tucker lest week. I think he had

1126
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:06,240
Speaker 2: thirty three.

1127
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 3: Carries for one hundred and sixty nine yards.

1128
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:11,799
Speaker 2: But what does Florida State do well? The only thing

1129
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 2: they do well they can stop the run. Their run

1130
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 2: defense has been great all year. That's all Syracuse can do.

1131
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:20,880
Speaker 2: And now they put on tape what they're doing with

1132
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 2: Strader and the shotgun. Just you know, read option and

1133
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:28,920
Speaker 2: just run the ball fifty five times. Florida State can

1134
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 2: contain that. So I think this is the week to

1135
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:33,799
Speaker 2: buy Florida State and the other one. I'll let you

1136
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:35,000
Speaker 2: weigh and if you want to way in on that.

1137
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:38,319
Speaker 2: After this too, is Wisconsin my one and a half

1138
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 2: point favorite at home against Michigan. Sorry, people, we were

1139
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:47,280
Speaker 2: betting Wisconsin again this week and Graham Mertz it's a disaster.

1140
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 2: This is not going to end well. Michigan. I thought,

1141
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 2: I thought, all right, Michigan, this team maybe is legit,

1142
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:56,279
Speaker 2: top twenty, legitate for their first three games, but then

1143
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 2: they play Rutgers last week and they look very pedestrian.

1144
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 2: I downgrade them. And Michigan's done this. The pass in

1145
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 2: the hardball non conference games against these directional schools, just

1146
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:09,560
Speaker 2: bury them. You know, Michigan's been playing at home for

1147
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 2: what they put. All their games have been at home

1148
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 2: so far. Now they go to Camp Randall. I don't

1149
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:18,239
Speaker 2: know how they move the ball. I don't. And you

1150
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:21,879
Speaker 2: just hope that merch doesn't throw picks, and you hope

1151
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:24,960
Speaker 2: that if he's bad early they pull them at But

1152
00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:28,400
Speaker 2: we're betting Wisconsin. This line should be over three. I'm sorry,

1153
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 2: it sucks. Maybe the water boy gets in their quarterback

1154
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:36,240
Speaker 2: if need be. But those are the two smelliest lines

1155
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 2: of the week.

1156
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:39,879
Speaker 3: Your thoughts, well, I'm with you on Wisconsin. I took

1157
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 3: it on open. I would not lay any points here.

1158
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 3: I would just to money line you. I mean, anything

1159
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 3: you can get with this Wisconsin offense. I wouldn't plan

1160
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:52,120
Speaker 3: on them covering any numbers. But everything Michigan does, which

1161
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:53,879
Speaker 3: is run the ball seventy four percent of the time,

1162
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 3: is what Wisconsin is good at. Second in line yards,

1163
00:55:56,640 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 3: fifth and rushing success rate. The Badgers are going to

1164
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 3: have a ton of success and shutting down the run

1165
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 3: heavy Wolverines, especially in the finishing drives area. Everything Michigan

1166
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:07,839
Speaker 3: wants to do Wisconsin can defend well. So let's see

1167
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 3: if they can turn around get a win. Here two lines.

1168
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:15,839
Speaker 3: I'll be real quick here. That look fishy, and I'm

1169
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 3: gonna end up playing them, and hopefully I don't bring

1170
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:20,360
Speaker 3: myself to bring them on the show Saturday for our

1171
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:23,360
Speaker 3: money line round Robin. Georgia Southern fired their coach and

1172
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 3: now their favorites over Arkansas State. Now you know, Tomlin

1173
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 3: is still running a quarterback and they're still going to

1174
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:30,439
Speaker 3: run the triple option. I can't imagine the triple option

1175
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 3: ever changing at Georgia Southern. I could be dead or

1176
00:56:34,480 --> 00:56:37,120
Speaker 3: put in cryo freeze and brought back in three hundred years,

1177
00:56:37,160 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 3: and I think Georgia Southern is still running the triple option.

1178
00:56:39,719 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 3: Our a Saw State can't defend the triple option at all.

1179
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:45,480
Speaker 3: They're a horrible defense, horrible against the passer, horrible against

1180
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 3: a rush, one hundred and twenty third against rush explosiveness.

1181
00:56:48,200 --> 00:56:51,279
Speaker 3: So Georgia Southern, I you know, Lunsford's gone, but we'll

1182
00:56:51,280 --> 00:56:52,840
Speaker 3: see what they can do the other one. And I

1183
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:54,840
Speaker 3: hate it. I hate it, and I don't want to

1184
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:55,960
Speaker 3: play it, and I don't want to put in the

1185
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:57,800
Speaker 3: app and I don't want to shove money across the counter,

1186
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:01,759
Speaker 3: but this Fresno State Hawaii line stanks eleven. Fresno is

1187
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:03,520
Speaker 3: going to go out to the island. Got a nice

1188
00:57:03,520 --> 00:57:07,440
Speaker 3: eleven pm Eastern kickoff at night eleven against the Hawaii

1189
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:10,760
Speaker 3: team that is offensively in nept with with Bo Graham

1190
00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 3: calling the plays there. They haven't been able to do

1191
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:16,480
Speaker 3: anything this season, and Fresno is out here beating everybody

1192
00:57:16,520 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 3: in the Power five. Jake Hayter's healthy, Ronnie Rivers is heavy.

1193
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:22,960
Speaker 3: Is a conference game. Fresno woke up after you know,

1194
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:25,959
Speaker 3: Brumfield and UNLV you know, caught him in a flat

1195
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 3: spot in the first half. This isn't a flat spot.

1196
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:30,720
Speaker 3: This is just a trip to the island. So and

1197
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 3: Kaitlin de Boor as a coach, we love this number

1198
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:36,360
Speaker 3: is gross and I don't want to bet Hawaii, but

1199
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 3: I'm gonna end up in here grading all these games,

1200
00:57:38,840 --> 00:57:41,040
Speaker 3: look at all these box scores and cussing out my

1201
00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 3: TV because I got money on Hawaii because that number stinks.

1202
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 2: All right, let's weird things happen on the island. Man.

1203
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to some garbage. Let's go

1204
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 2: dumpster diving.

1205
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:55,280
Speaker 3: The trash Man pick of the week.

1206
00:57:55,840 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 2: I'm the trash man.

1207
00:57:57,280 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 3: Just throw me in the trash.

1208
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 1: Your garbage and you went totally unreliable, undependable.

1209
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 4: That that's it.

1210
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 2: You've been told off. How do you like that?

1211
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 1: Good?

1212
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 2: All right? I had to write up this game on

1213
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 2: Actionnetwork dot com and the Action Network HAP because I've

1214
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 2: written up Yukon games each of the past two weeks

1215
00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 2: and I've covered both, so I have to keep the

1216
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 2: street going and hopefully at last until next week. In

1217
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 2: the super Bowl of all toilet Bowls and Yukon plays UMass.

1218
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 2: Last week I had the under and U come was

1219
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 2: very respectable. They had a two point version of Tilers

1220
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 2: geting laid against Wyoming is like thirty one point underdogs.

1221
00:58:31,680 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 2: The week before they got a backdoor for me against

1222
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:36,400
Speaker 2: Army and again they're down like forty two to nothing

1223
00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:40,000
Speaker 2: at the half. This week they go to Vanderbilt. The

1224
00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:42,960
Speaker 2: spread at winbat Vanderbilt fourteen and a half point favorites.

1225
00:58:43,640 --> 00:58:46,360
Speaker 2: You thought you thought Florida State and Vandy made you sick.

1226
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 2: I'm laying the points with Vanderbilt, a team that just

1227
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:53,960
Speaker 2: lost sixty five nothing to Georgia and you lost twenty

1228
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:56,520
Speaker 2: three to three at home to East Tennessee State. Now

1229
00:58:56,560 --> 00:58:57,920
Speaker 2: it hasn't gone on the app dec. I'm waiting to

1230
00:58:57,920 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 2: see if we can get a fourteen. Some of that

1231
00:58:59,800 --> 00:59:04,120
Speaker 2: late sharp Yukon money hopefully comes in. But look, Yukon

1232
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 2: does one thing really well. They can defend the run

1233
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:08,240
Speaker 2: like they held Fresno to like four point three yards

1234
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:12,600
Speaker 2: per carry, like your traditional runs. They held Wyoming's rushing

1235
00:59:12,600 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 2: attack in check. They held Purdue in check. But they

1236
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 2: have no explosiveness on offense. None. It's all freshman if

1237
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 2: a true freshman quarterback who can run a little bit

1238
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 2: in Voma Chan. They have a freshman running back, three

1239
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:28,160
Speaker 2: freshman wide receivers, two freshman offensive linemen. I mean, the

1240
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:31,120
Speaker 2: offense is it's just bad. And the defense. They can

1241
00:59:31,160 --> 00:59:33,480
Speaker 2: defend the run, but their secondary is so bad. They

1242
00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 2: can't cover anybody. That's why they were able to hang

1243
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:38,880
Speaker 2: with Wyoming, and they could, they just weren't prepared for

1244
00:59:38,920 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 2: the trip option. It's a whole different animal, but they

1245
00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:44,080
Speaker 2: can't cover anybody. Does forty nine nothing to Purdue and

1246
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 2: forty five nothing to Fresno State. They also lost at

1247
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:49,040
Speaker 2: home by ten to Holy Cross and gave up thirty

1248
00:59:49,080 --> 00:59:52,400
Speaker 2: eight points. Vandergilt has been an absolute disaster. There's nothing

1249
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:54,440
Speaker 2: good I could say about them. They did have one

1250
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 2: competent half against Stanford, and again that was really close

1251
00:59:57,240 --> 00:59:59,080
Speaker 2: at the end of the first half, and then they

1252
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:00,680
Speaker 2: just made a couple of mistakes and the game got

1253
01:00:00,720 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 2: away from them. And they did win at Colorado State

1254
01:00:03,440 --> 01:00:06,120
Speaker 2: even though they were outplayed. But I just think that

1255
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 2: this is a spot for Vanderbilt, who's not gonna win

1256
01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:10,960
Speaker 2: another game the rest of the year. Potentially this is

1257
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:13,640
Speaker 2: their get right game. I know you can say it's

1258
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 2: a sandwich spot. They just played Georgia and at Florida

1259
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 2: on deck, there's no sandwich spots at Bandy. They're not

1260
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:24,520
Speaker 2: looking ahead sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches. Clerkley needs this game

1261
01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:26,800
Speaker 2: and they need to win, and they need to win convincingly.

1262
01:00:27,560 --> 01:00:31,520
Speaker 2: So I think this Vandy defense, just a much more

1263
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 2: talented team, can shut down this very young Yukon offense.

1264
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:39,200
Speaker 2: At home, there might be only ten people in the crowd,

1265
01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:41,040
Speaker 2: so I don't know who's actually gonna go to this

1266
01:00:41,080 --> 01:00:44,240
Speaker 2: game on prime time on ESPNU. The Florida game is

1267
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:46,480
Speaker 2: going to be going on during this game at the bar.

1268
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:48,439
Speaker 2: I'm gonna see if I can get this on a TV.

1269
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 2: See if I can sneak it on a TV. See

1270
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 2: if no one yells at me. But yeah, we're laying it.

1271
01:00:53,120 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 2: We're laying it with Vandy. It's sad, but that's my

1272
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 2: trash for the week.

1273
01:00:58,160 --> 01:01:00,320
Speaker 3: You have sixteen screens in here at a if this

1274
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 3: game is going to make it on any of them,

1275
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:05,360
Speaker 3: and listen, everybody, program it in your phone nine five

1276
01:01:05,560 --> 01:01:10,360
Speaker 3: nine bad beat. This bandy team is lifeless, like a corpse.

1277
01:01:10,800 --> 01:01:15,280
Speaker 3: Clark Lee's signature defense is getting torched by everything lifeless.

1278
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:19,640
Speaker 3: So you take it out the trash, all right? I

1279
01:01:19,640 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 3: got one for you. Who's the team that has covered

1280
01:01:23,520 --> 01:01:26,720
Speaker 3: every single game this season and has a major conference

1281
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:33,960
Speaker 3: look ahead next week? Utsa first me meet. I love them,

1282
01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:36,240
Speaker 3: We love them before Stuck, you don't even knew each other.

1283
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:38,720
Speaker 3: We loved the road Runners. I think the second day

1284
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 3: became a program.

1285
01:01:39,760 --> 01:01:42,720
Speaker 2: Except that game against Louisiana Tech. Oh you better do

1286
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,600
Speaker 2: that this week when he was running Harry up at

1287
01:01:45,600 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 2: the goal line with one second left to get that cover.

1288
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 2: That was after like an onside kick return. That was

1289
01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:50,960
Speaker 2: just awful.

1290
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:53,520
Speaker 3: You got one coming to you. Skipholt. Listen you and

1291
01:01:53,640 --> 01:01:55,960
Speaker 3: LB first half against UTSA. I think it's worth a look.

1292
01:01:56,040 --> 01:01:59,600
Speaker 3: Doug Brumfeld a no show at practice today. We're recording

1293
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 3: on Thursday day, so it maybe Cameron Freel I believe

1294
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 3: is his name. He may be the starting quarterback here.

1295
01:02:07,000 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 3: But if Broomfield's playing, I definitely want to take UNLV

1296
01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:10,760
Speaker 3: in the first half, similar that I did to I

1297
01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:14,160
Speaker 3: was huge overlook game for UTSA. They have Western Kentucky

1298
01:02:14,200 --> 01:02:18,000
Speaker 3: on deck. I mean that's the Conference USA Championship next week.

1299
01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:21,200
Speaker 3: But Broomfield no show at practice today. He gives UNLV

1300
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:24,600
Speaker 3: extra life, especially on the ground. UNLV is seventeenth and

1301
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:28,200
Speaker 3: standard downs explosiveness Utsa's d We're gonna have to talk

1302
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:30,320
Speaker 3: about this next week. They're one hundred and twenty first

1303
01:02:30,360 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 3: and depending explosiveness and standard downs. So utsa's falling asleep

1304
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:36,720
Speaker 3: at the wheel, and that's something you know, Western Kentucky

1305
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:40,680
Speaker 3: can exploit next week. Did UTSA even plan to you know,

1306
01:02:40,720 --> 01:02:44,080
Speaker 3: game plan around UNLV. We'll find out if Broomfield's gonna play.

1307
01:02:44,160 --> 01:02:45,640
Speaker 3: He didn't practice to day, so this may not be

1308
01:02:45,680 --> 01:02:47,960
Speaker 3: a play. But if I'm taking out the trash, it's

1309
01:02:47,960 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 3: gonna be unlv first half.

1310
01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:52,520
Speaker 2: Hey, they treated us well last week against Fresno, and

1311
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 2: that first half is probably the easiest bet you'll ever

1312
01:02:54,600 --> 01:02:56,760
Speaker 2: have in your life. Before we get out of here,

1313
01:02:56,840 --> 01:03:00,800
Speaker 2: we do have some remaining business to attend to. Let's

1314
01:03:00,800 --> 01:03:03,360
Speaker 2: go three and out.

1315
01:03:02,240 --> 01:03:05,800
Speaker 3: Oh, let's make it a quick three and out.

1316
01:03:07,120 --> 01:03:11,360
Speaker 2: All right? On first down here, we gotta talk Friday

1317
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:11,960
Speaker 2: night lights.

1318
01:03:12,800 --> 01:03:16,200
Speaker 3: Let's hear a gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts here.

1319
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:20,120
Speaker 2: Let's go play some football. Then we have to start

1320
01:03:20,200 --> 01:03:23,560
Speaker 2: with Maryland and Iowa. You know, we gotta get Iowa

1321
01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 2: in here. Iowa win bet three. This line is right

1322
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 2: around three three point favorites at Maryland. I love Maryland here.

1323
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 2: I like them at anything at a field goal or above.

1324
01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:35,480
Speaker 2: If you follow me on the actional oor gap, you

1325
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 2: would have stall play come across early this week. This

1326
01:03:38,600 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 2: Iowa team has luck. They played Indiana in the first week,

1327
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:45,600
Speaker 2: they got a bunch of pick sixes. They played Iowa

1328
01:03:45,680 --> 01:03:48,720
Speaker 2: State week two. In the game they got the average,

1329
01:03:48,800 --> 01:03:52,160
Speaker 2: They were severely outplayed. They had four turnovers. They got

1330
01:03:52,200 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 2: four turnovers and didn't turn the ball over. They had one

1331
01:03:53,840 --> 01:03:57,920
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy three yards. Then they beat Kent State

1332
01:03:58,040 --> 01:04:00,200
Speaker 2: in a game that wasn't you know, that much much

1333
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:02,960
Speaker 2: of a blowout. And then they played Colorado State again.

1334
01:04:03,000 --> 01:04:05,480
Speaker 2: They tried out the half. They were by ten. This offense.

1335
01:04:05,600 --> 01:04:08,560
Speaker 2: I have this offense rated outside the top one hundred.

1336
01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 2: This is a tamt people are talking about to go

1337
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:12,680
Speaker 2: to the college ball playoff. I haven't rated one hundred

1338
01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 2: and first in the nation. Spencer Peaches is doing nothing.

1339
01:04:16,920 --> 01:04:19,520
Speaker 2: They can't throw the ball, they have no explosiveness. How

1340
01:04:19,560 --> 01:04:23,360
Speaker 2: do you have a twenty play drive against Kent State?

1341
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:26,400
Speaker 2: You don't. You can't break any plays against that defense.

1342
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:30,880
Speaker 2: So this Iowa offense is dreadful people. They're not running

1343
01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:34,160
Speaker 2: the ball well either. Look at their success rate running

1344
01:04:34,200 --> 01:04:36,520
Speaker 2: the ball. This team is doing nothing well on offense.

1345
01:04:37,240 --> 01:04:39,280
Speaker 2: Their defense is playing really well, but they're just getting

1346
01:04:39,280 --> 01:04:42,680
Speaker 2: so many turnovers at that ideal time that Colorado stick in.

1347
01:04:42,680 --> 01:04:45,760
Speaker 2: They got a turnover inside the Colorado State five on

1348
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:49,680
Speaker 2: a fumble touchdown next play game over. They had. A

1349
01:04:49,760 --> 01:04:54,280
Speaker 2: defense is great, but this offense is horrendous. Maryland is

1350
01:04:54,320 --> 01:04:58,600
Speaker 2: by far the most explosive offense they'll face this year,

1351
01:04:59,240 --> 01:05:03,440
Speaker 2: and I think they're winning this game. Just have to

1352
01:05:03,480 --> 01:05:06,040
Speaker 2: avoid the Iowa voodoo. I was good to average two

1353
01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 2: and a half three yards per play. Avoid the interceptions,

1354
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:14,800
Speaker 2: and which is what h Togobayola has been doing. He

1355
01:05:14,840 --> 01:05:18,320
Speaker 2: hasn't been making too many turnover worthy throws. He's taking

1356
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:20,960
Speaker 2: care of the ball. That's important here. I think this

1357
01:05:21,040 --> 01:05:24,400
Speaker 2: game basically a coin flip. The defense is great. I

1358
01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:27,240
Speaker 2: think there's still some opportunities to attack them on the ground,

1359
01:05:28,000 --> 01:05:30,640
Speaker 2: and you know they don't give up too many explosive plays.

1360
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:33,920
Speaker 2: That's true, but this the defense is the top orgably

1361
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:37,000
Speaker 2: top five unit. But the offense is so bad they

1362
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 2: should not be laying three or more here at Maryland.

1363
01:05:41,320 --> 01:05:44,400
Speaker 2: Give me the Turps home dogs on Friday night. We

1364
01:05:44,440 --> 01:05:45,840
Speaker 2: hope they can get off to a fast start here

1365
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:47,320
Speaker 2: and avoid the turnovers. It's all you have to do

1366
01:05:47,360 --> 01:05:49,640
Speaker 2: against Iowa. Do you agree? Yeah?

1367
01:05:49,680 --> 01:05:53,360
Speaker 3: Absolutely. I couldn't have an explosive play against eleven ouba loompas.

1368
01:05:53,440 --> 01:05:55,000
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know what's wrong with them beating

1369
01:05:55,040 --> 01:05:57,720
Speaker 3: Colorado State by ten at home. It's a little embarrassing.

1370
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:00,520
Speaker 3: Maryland has to stay on schedule. It's the biggest battle

1371
01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:02,280
Speaker 3: of the game. The Turps are fifth and standard down

1372
01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 3: success rate. I'll go a little bit farther on Talia tackle.

1373
01:06:05,280 --> 01:06:09,400
Speaker 3: Bayola leads that passing offense top ten and passing success rate.

1374
01:06:09,640 --> 01:06:14,520
Speaker 3: He's had eleven big time throws. More importantly, zero turnover

1375
01:06:14,560 --> 01:06:21,439
Speaker 3: worthy plays, zero Tago Bayola Sean Clifford having excellent seasons.

1376
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:23,640
Speaker 3: This is what we have deal with Iowa though, right

1377
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:26,040
Speaker 3: punts to the one yard line. Special teams rank in

1378
01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:29,120
Speaker 3: the top ten. Goodson draining the clock one hundred and

1379
01:06:29,120 --> 01:06:31,680
Speaker 3: thirteenth in place per minute. It's going to be a grind.

1380
01:06:31,680 --> 01:06:33,920
Speaker 3: It's not gonna be easy. We need Maryland to get

1381
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:36,040
Speaker 3: out and get a lead fast and make Iowa play

1382
01:06:36,080 --> 01:06:38,960
Speaker 3: from behind. But yeah, I would love for Maryland to

1383
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:41,520
Speaker 3: cash that win total over first win total I hit

1384
01:06:41,560 --> 01:06:43,760
Speaker 3: on the board in the action app. Could cash by

1385
01:06:43,800 --> 01:06:46,560
Speaker 3: the time midterms come around. So yes, turps all the way.

1386
01:06:47,160 --> 01:06:49,520
Speaker 2: Iowa was down fourteen to seven at the half at

1387
01:06:49,520 --> 01:06:52,560
Speaker 2: home to Colorado State. Here were their scoring drives in

1388
01:06:52,600 --> 01:06:57,280
Speaker 2: the second half. Six yard touchdown drive, forty one yard

1389
01:06:57,280 --> 01:07:02,320
Speaker 2: touchdown drive, yard drive that ended in a field goal.

1390
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 2: That's it. That's that's the Iowa offense to win twenty

1391
01:07:06,040 --> 01:07:08,680
Speaker 2: four to fourteen. They had two hundred and seventy eight

1392
01:07:08,720 --> 01:07:10,760
Speaker 2: yards of offense. It basically it was an even game.

1393
01:07:11,000 --> 01:07:13,600
Speaker 2: The bounces are going to stop for Iowa eventually. Love

1394
01:07:13,720 --> 01:07:19,120
Speaker 2: Fernce Ferrents didn't call in last week, so I'm sure

1395
01:07:19,120 --> 01:07:21,000
Speaker 2: we'll hear from on Friday night if Iowall wins. But

1396
01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:23,480
Speaker 2: I'm on the turfs. But by the way, Iowa also

1397
01:07:23,560 --> 01:07:26,280
Speaker 2: has that maybe they're peaking ahead to Penn State next

1398
01:07:26,320 --> 01:07:29,280
Speaker 2: week in a huge game. There's also we had Houston

1399
01:07:29,280 --> 01:07:33,280
Speaker 2: at Tulsa and BYU at Utah State. Don't be fooled

1400
01:07:33,280 --> 01:07:35,280
Speaker 2: by that. Utah. Their Utah State teams with covered machine.

1401
01:07:35,320 --> 01:07:38,560
Speaker 2: Their offense has been awesome. Don't be fooled by that

1402
01:07:38,600 --> 01:07:41,040
Speaker 2: score against Boise last week they lost twenty seven to three.

1403
01:07:41,360 --> 01:07:44,240
Speaker 2: They outgained Boise four forty three to four to thirty five.

1404
01:07:44,440 --> 01:07:46,760
Speaker 2: They were stopped in the red zone three times, they

1405
01:07:46,760 --> 01:07:49,480
Speaker 2: had three turnovers, and they were zero for three on

1406
01:07:49,520 --> 01:07:51,840
Speaker 2: fourth down. They had four hundred and forty three yards.

1407
01:07:51,840 --> 01:07:53,640
Speaker 2: They had three hundred yards at the half first half

1408
01:07:53,640 --> 01:07:57,040
Speaker 2: of three points. So their offense is still humming along

1409
01:07:57,800 --> 01:07:59,360
Speaker 2: anything on Houston Tulsa.

1410
01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:01,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, Lake Anderson getting it done at Utah State. I'll

1411
01:08:01,840 --> 01:08:04,240
Speaker 3: probably join you there. I took an early under on

1412
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:07,960
Speaker 3: the Houston Tulsa Just knowing that I live here in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

1413
01:08:08,120 --> 01:08:10,160
Speaker 3: It has been severe weather all day and that is

1414
01:08:10,200 --> 01:08:13,280
Speaker 3: expected to continue throughout the weekend. I would stop buying

1415
01:08:13,280 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 3: this at fifty five. So I mean there's some fifty fours.

1416
01:08:15,440 --> 01:08:17,120
Speaker 3: Fifty fours and a half's out there if we get

1417
01:08:17,160 --> 01:08:20,000
Speaker 3: a little bumped back up. Fifty five actually is the

1418
01:08:20,040 --> 01:08:22,400
Speaker 3: biggest key number in total so far this season. It

1419
01:08:22,520 --> 01:08:24,920
Speaker 3: lands three percent of the time, more than any other total.

1420
01:08:25,040 --> 01:08:27,280
Speaker 3: Tulsa is one hundred and seventh and finishing drives on

1421
01:08:27,360 --> 01:08:30,759
Speaker 3: offense their bottom fifteen and rushing success rate. You're gonna

1422
01:08:30,800 --> 01:08:32,479
Speaker 3: have to have a rushing game if it's going to

1423
01:08:32,560 --> 01:08:35,839
Speaker 3: be a wet track and steady rain coming down. Houston

1424
01:08:35,880 --> 01:08:38,040
Speaker 3: defense is number one in the nation and passing down

1425
01:08:38,040 --> 01:08:40,519
Speaker 3: success rate. So if Tulsa does decide to let it

1426
01:08:40,560 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 3: fly and it's not going to go very far, I'd wait,

1427
01:08:43,320 --> 01:08:45,880
Speaker 3: be patient, get that fifty five. It's a good number.

1428
01:08:45,920 --> 01:08:47,320
Speaker 3: Take to under there, and if you can't get that,

1429
01:08:47,439 --> 01:08:49,320
Speaker 3: twenty seven and a half is still recommended on the

1430
01:08:49,320 --> 01:08:50,040
Speaker 3: first half under.

1431
01:08:50,400 --> 01:08:54,000
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to second down. All right,

1432
01:08:54,040 --> 01:08:58,040
Speaker 2: let's first talk our favorite overdog. It's not familiar. That's

1433
01:08:58,040 --> 01:08:59,479
Speaker 2: our favorite favorite of the weekend.

1434
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:01,559
Speaker 3: It's called the overdog parlay.

1435
01:09:01,760 --> 01:09:04,360
Speaker 2: I already mentioned Vandy. I like Kent State. On a

1436
01:09:04,400 --> 01:09:06,800
Speaker 2: sixteen and a half. We gave credit to Bowling Green,

1437
01:09:07,080 --> 01:09:09,320
Speaker 2: but this I still show a little bit. Maybe I

1438
01:09:09,360 --> 01:09:10,800
Speaker 2: have an upgrade of them enough. I still show some

1439
01:09:10,880 --> 01:09:13,599
Speaker 2: value Kent State here, they've played a lot of tough

1440
01:09:13,640 --> 01:09:15,800
Speaker 2: non conference games. They come home against Bowling Green. His

1441
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:18,320
Speaker 2: defense has been good, the competition has been great. They

1442
01:09:18,320 --> 01:09:20,839
Speaker 2: somehow shut down Minnesota. We have to give them props.

1443
01:09:21,040 --> 01:09:23,839
Speaker 2: Couldn't do anything on offense, but this Kent State offense

1444
01:09:24,040 --> 01:09:26,360
Speaker 2: wants to go, go go. I think this is a

1445
01:09:26,400 --> 01:09:29,559
Speaker 2: recipe for a blowout here. I'm selling this Bowling Green

1446
01:09:29,600 --> 01:09:32,400
Speaker 2: team after a covering four straight, Kent State at home

1447
01:09:32,800 --> 01:09:36,360
Speaker 2: gets a little reprieve in their level of competition. I

1448
01:09:36,439 --> 01:09:38,519
Speaker 2: like Kent State under seventeen. I know you disagree there,

1449
01:09:38,520 --> 01:09:39,559
Speaker 2: But what's your favorite overdog?

1450
01:09:40,040 --> 01:09:42,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, Bowling Green's pass defense has been very good against

1451
01:09:42,560 --> 01:09:51,600
Speaker 3: a tough schedule. My favorite overdog. Welcome to b October, everybody.

1452
01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:55,559
Speaker 3: I don't care that the number is above my projection.

1453
01:09:56,040 --> 01:09:59,120
Speaker 3: Iowa State over Kansas, get it. Before it gets to

1454
01:09:59,200 --> 01:10:02,760
Speaker 3: thirty five b October Baby, Well, let's quantify that he's

1455
01:10:02,800 --> 01:10:04,920
Speaker 3: covered every game against the spread and I think four

1456
01:10:05,000 --> 01:10:07,240
Speaker 3: years and aims in the month of October with the

1457
01:10:07,280 --> 01:10:09,479
Speaker 3: exception of two games and as I think a sixteen

1458
01:10:09,520 --> 01:10:11,840
Speaker 3: game sample. Broctober Baby, let's lay it.

1459
01:10:12,160 --> 01:10:13,599
Speaker 2: Last year I had them, I think I get Seds

1460
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:15,439
Speaker 2: and they threw a touchdown in like the final minute

1461
01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:19,800
Speaker 2: to cover a huge number. Okay, let's move on to

1462
01:10:19,840 --> 01:10:28,040
Speaker 2: our favorite money line underdogs turning good weekends into great weekends.

1463
01:10:28,560 --> 01:10:31,120
Speaker 3: It's time for the money line parlay.

1464
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:34,479
Speaker 2: All this game written up on Action number dot com

1465
01:10:34,479 --> 01:10:36,080
Speaker 2: and the Action recaps to make sure you check it out.

1466
01:10:36,120 --> 01:10:40,000
Speaker 2: But I'm going Nevada, Oh, Nevada their plus six and

1467
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,800
Speaker 2: a half. I'm sitting on the sideline. Someone please give

1468
01:10:42,840 --> 01:10:46,240
Speaker 2: me the seven. This Poise State team has major issues

1469
01:10:46,680 --> 01:10:51,520
Speaker 2: defending the run. They have major issues defending explosive plays.

1470
01:10:52,120 --> 01:10:54,240
Speaker 2: They lost a couple of defensive linemen, which is really

1471
01:10:54,280 --> 01:10:56,280
Speaker 2: hurt because the front seven was supposed to be really good.

1472
01:10:56,680 --> 01:11:00,360
Speaker 2: The offense can't run the ball at all one hundred

1473
01:11:00,400 --> 01:11:03,000
Speaker 2: and twenty fifth in the country and yards per rush.

1474
01:11:03,120 --> 01:11:06,240
Speaker 2: They can't get any ground game going. It's really worrisome

1475
01:11:06,280 --> 01:11:08,360
Speaker 2: about their run defenses. That Oklahoma State ran for like

1476
01:11:08,360 --> 01:11:10,280
Speaker 2: two hundred and sixty five yards. There's a team that

1477
01:11:10,360 --> 01:11:13,720
Speaker 2: couldn't run against anyone else. So I think Nevada they're

1478
01:11:13,720 --> 01:11:15,280
Speaker 2: going to catch twenty two on their defense. So they

1479
01:11:15,280 --> 01:11:17,720
Speaker 2: have new corners that I think Nevada can exploit. I

1480
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:19,560
Speaker 2: know Cooks is out for the year, but Nevada was

1481
01:11:19,600 --> 01:11:23,160
Speaker 2: fine last year on offense without it with Dubbs Cole Turner,

1482
01:11:23,160 --> 01:11:25,400
Speaker 2: and they have a couple other talented receivers. Nevada hasn't

1483
01:11:25,439 --> 01:11:26,880
Speaker 2: been able to run the ball, but I think they

1484
01:11:26,880 --> 01:11:29,599
Speaker 2: actually can get some run, can get the run game

1485
01:11:29,640 --> 01:11:32,519
Speaker 2: going if Boise is playing to prevent the explosive. But

1486
01:11:32,680 --> 01:11:34,679
Speaker 2: if Boise has to try to stack the box, Carson

1487
01:11:34,680 --> 01:11:36,479
Speaker 2: Strong is going to hit him over to the top.

1488
01:11:42,240 --> 01:11:43,760
Speaker 2: Carston Strong, by the way, is being talked about as

1489
01:11:43,760 --> 01:11:46,679
Speaker 2: a number one overall pick in the NFL draft next year.

1490
01:11:47,080 --> 01:11:51,320
Speaker 2: Nevada off of a bye and so extra preparation here.

1491
01:11:51,800 --> 01:11:54,080
Speaker 2: I think that you know, it's a couple of transfer

1492
01:11:54,120 --> 01:11:56,320
Speaker 2: corners that had to be assimilated into the new defense,

1493
01:11:56,360 --> 01:12:00,519
Speaker 2: and the Boise State offensive line is a mess. I

1494
01:12:00,560 --> 01:12:03,839
Speaker 2: don't think that they can really exploit Nevada's main weakness

1495
01:12:03,840 --> 01:12:05,960
Speaker 2: on defense, which has been their run defense. Kansas State

1496
01:12:06,000 --> 01:12:07,800
Speaker 2: run for two out of sixt years. Boys, they can't

1497
01:12:07,880 --> 01:12:10,400
Speaker 2: run the ball because of their offensive line. So I

1498
01:12:10,439 --> 01:12:13,240
Speaker 2: think Nevada who's been dominated in the series. The think

1499
01:12:13,240 --> 01:12:16,320
Speaker 2: they've lost eighteen of nineteen since two thousand. This is

1500
01:12:16,360 --> 01:12:18,639
Speaker 2: a huge game for them. The last time they won

1501
01:12:18,760 --> 01:12:20,800
Speaker 2: was in twenty ten with Colin Kaepernick in overtime they

1502
01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:24,360
Speaker 2: ended Boise's PCs hopes. Look, both teams have had issues

1503
01:12:24,400 --> 01:12:26,759
Speaker 2: in the trenches so far to start this season. Boise

1504
01:12:27,080 --> 01:12:30,479
Speaker 2: they got torched by torch by Utah State. They just

1505
01:12:30,479 --> 01:12:33,960
Speaker 2: couldn't finish drives. I think I was high on Nevada

1506
01:12:34,000 --> 01:12:37,160
Speaker 2: coming into the year. Romeo Dubbs, my boys gonna have

1507
01:12:37,160 --> 01:12:39,439
Speaker 2: a big day. I think Nevada pulls off this upset.

1508
01:12:39,439 --> 01:12:44,360
Speaker 2: I'm also waiting on plus seven, Go Pack Go. I'm

1509
01:12:44,360 --> 01:12:47,000
Speaker 2: trusting in the better quarterback here, the pro quarterback and

1510
01:12:47,040 --> 01:12:49,960
Speaker 2: Carson Strong in a game. I think these two teams

1511
01:12:50,000 --> 01:12:51,960
Speaker 2: are not far off from each other.

1512
01:12:52,439 --> 01:12:56,639
Speaker 3: Oh, I was also waiting on a seven. This Boise

1513
01:12:56,800 --> 01:13:01,040
Speaker 3: offense is garbage. You can bring it near. Offensive coordinator

1514
01:13:01,040 --> 01:13:04,680
Speaker 3: from UC Davis, but your explosiveness is one hundred and

1515
01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:07,760
Speaker 3: fifteenth and rush seventy third past garbage. And I don't

1516
01:13:07,760 --> 01:13:10,599
Speaker 3: think we're gonna get a seven. So as we were talking,

1517
01:13:10,640 --> 01:13:14,840
Speaker 3: I just pushed money across because I'm seeing a few

1518
01:13:14,840 --> 01:13:16,439
Speaker 3: things in the market that tell me we may not

1519
01:13:16,520 --> 01:13:18,880
Speaker 3: get a seven. So either I'm paying minus one twenty

1520
01:13:18,880 --> 01:13:20,479
Speaker 3: to it or I just buy the six and a half.

1521
01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:23,400
Speaker 3: But completely agree with you. I'm gonna pivot and I'm

1522
01:13:23,439 --> 01:13:26,559
Speaker 3: gonna go big boy football in the SEC. I'm gonna

1523
01:13:26,640 --> 01:13:29,360
Speaker 3: head to Auburn and LSU. If you could find two

1524
01:13:29,360 --> 01:13:32,120
Speaker 3: teams in a Power five conference that desperately need a

1525
01:13:32,160 --> 01:13:34,400
Speaker 3: win for their coach, this is gonna be it. I mean,

1526
01:13:34,479 --> 01:13:36,760
Speaker 3: coach oh is right on that hot CTV loses this game,

1527
01:13:37,200 --> 01:13:38,320
Speaker 3: there's no question about that.

1528
01:13:38,680 --> 01:13:39,840
Speaker 2: Let's go beyond.

1529
01:13:41,120 --> 01:13:44,240
Speaker 3: Brian Harson firing his wide receiver coach. I don't know

1530
01:13:44,280 --> 01:13:46,920
Speaker 3: what's going on with Auburn firing your wide receiver coach

1531
01:13:47,000 --> 01:13:49,200
Speaker 3: after just a couple of games and then coming out

1532
01:13:49,240 --> 01:13:51,200
Speaker 3: and saying, you know, I don't want to he's a

1533
01:13:51,200 --> 01:13:53,080
Speaker 3: good guy. Cornelius one was a great guy. I don't

1534
01:13:53,080 --> 01:13:54,439
Speaker 3: want to, you know, throw him nder the bus say

1535
01:13:54,439 --> 01:13:57,599
Speaker 3: anything bad about him, but bo Nix is consistently policing

1536
01:13:57,640 --> 01:13:59,400
Speaker 3: his targets to line up in the right spot and

1537
01:13:59,439 --> 01:14:02,720
Speaker 3: run the right rout. If that's truly the case, then

1538
01:14:02,720 --> 01:14:05,559
Speaker 3: why is TJ Finley coming in the game and mounting

1539
01:14:05,560 --> 01:14:07,920
Speaker 3: a comeback against Georgia State. Because the wide receivers just

1540
01:14:07,920 --> 01:14:10,639
Speaker 3: all of a sudden figured it out after Boonis policed them.

1541
01:14:11,160 --> 01:14:14,080
Speaker 3: So Bonis may get this start. This is a return

1542
01:14:14,080 --> 01:14:16,760
Speaker 3: home for TJ. Finley. It's a very emotional game for

1543
01:14:16,840 --> 01:14:20,280
Speaker 3: TJ Finley. He had a in the office coach O Talk.

1544
01:14:20,720 --> 01:14:23,280
Speaker 3: Didn't want to leave the program, but there just wasn't

1545
01:14:23,280 --> 01:14:25,160
Speaker 3: a place for him to start, and that's why he

1546
01:14:25,240 --> 01:14:27,400
Speaker 3: hit the transfer portal. And he loved coach O and

1547
01:14:27,479 --> 01:14:30,280
Speaker 3: he loved LSU and now here he comes back in

1548
01:14:30,400 --> 01:14:32,920
Speaker 3: for a game after leading the you know, the comeback

1549
01:14:32,920 --> 01:14:35,800
Speaker 3: against Georgia State. So Knicks may get a series or two.

1550
01:14:35,840 --> 01:14:39,280
Speaker 3: But the second he makes a mistake, Yank Finley's in

1551
01:14:39,320 --> 01:14:39,919
Speaker 3: the game.

1552
01:14:40,000 --> 01:14:42,120
Speaker 2: Bo Nicks season then full effect.

1553
01:14:43,760 --> 01:14:46,200
Speaker 3: To me, that's a huge plus. As for LSU, I

1554
01:14:46,200 --> 01:14:49,080
Speaker 3: mean they've become a one dimensional offense. They're passing on

1555
01:14:49,120 --> 01:14:52,519
Speaker 3: fifty eight percent of downs, that's growing. They're getting no

1556
01:14:52,600 --> 01:14:56,200
Speaker 3: push in the trench. This one dimensional offense that LSU

1557
01:14:56,280 --> 01:14:58,920
Speaker 3: is putting out there, this whole passing game runs into

1558
01:14:58,960 --> 01:15:03,120
Speaker 3: an elite all In secondary, Roger McCreary ranks fifth as

1559
01:15:03,160 --> 01:15:06,520
Speaker 3: the best coverage defender in all of FBS per PFF.

1560
01:15:06,640 --> 01:15:09,599
Speaker 3: Smoke Monday also in the top one hundred. No slouch,

1561
01:15:10,080 --> 01:15:13,920
Speaker 3: but the inaccuracy of knicks is a big question. TJ.

1562
01:15:14,000 --> 01:15:17,160
Speaker 3: Finley is going to stabilize this Auburn offense. And what

1563
01:15:17,200 --> 01:15:19,719
Speaker 3: do we know about LSU right now under Deronte Jones

1564
01:15:19,720 --> 01:15:22,760
Speaker 3: the defensive coordinator. They are terrible at tackling. They're one

1565
01:15:22,800 --> 01:15:25,480
Speaker 3: of the worst tackling teams in the nation. That is fundamentals,

1566
01:15:25,560 --> 01:15:26,920
Speaker 3: that is technique, that is coaching.

1567
01:15:27,400 --> 01:15:29,439
Speaker 2: So Auburt should have success running the ball here.

1568
01:15:29,640 --> 01:15:32,040
Speaker 3: Absolutely, so give me Auburn and the points. I think

1569
01:15:32,080 --> 01:15:34,599
Speaker 3: Auburn's gonna win straight up. The secondary is what makes

1570
01:15:34,640 --> 01:15:36,360
Speaker 3: the difference here. I think they go into Baton Region,

1571
01:15:36,400 --> 01:15:36,920
Speaker 3: they get to win.

1572
01:15:37,280 --> 01:15:39,800
Speaker 2: It'll be the first time they did that since nineteen

1573
01:15:40,160 --> 01:15:45,759
Speaker 2: ninety nine. In that season, LSU was dreadful. They were

1574
01:15:46,120 --> 01:15:48,320
Speaker 2: by the way that LSU team was zero to seven

1575
01:15:48,720 --> 01:15:51,360
Speaker 2: in the SEC two and eight overall. And this is

1576
01:15:51,760 --> 01:15:55,760
Speaker 2: right before Nick Saban took over in the final game

1577
01:15:55,760 --> 01:15:59,200
Speaker 2: of that season when Jerry DeNardo. Jerry Donardo refused to

1578
01:15:59,240 --> 01:16:01,479
Speaker 2: coach the final game of the season, so Hal Hunter

1579
01:16:01,840 --> 01:16:05,960
Speaker 2: was the interim coach for one game and a dreadful,

1580
01:16:06,560 --> 01:16:12,000
Speaker 2: dreadful LSU team zero to seven in the SEC hosted

1581
01:16:12,080 --> 01:16:16,120
Speaker 2: the top twenty Arkansas team under Hal Hunter and beat

1582
01:16:16,200 --> 01:16:18,800
Speaker 2: them down thirty five to ten. Do you remember that game.

1583
01:16:19,920 --> 01:16:23,120
Speaker 2: Let's move on to third down before we get out

1584
01:16:23,120 --> 01:16:25,240
Speaker 2: of here. Our favorite bet of the weekend. I'll have

1585
01:16:25,280 --> 01:16:27,800
Speaker 2: more on this on the live show, which is Big

1586
01:16:27,800 --> 01:16:31,280
Speaker 2: Bets on Campus Live ten to thirty am Eastern on Saturday.

1587
01:16:31,280 --> 01:16:34,240
Speaker 2: We'll sweet out the link ten thirty am. This week,

1588
01:16:34,640 --> 01:16:37,680
Speaker 2: I'm going with Arizona State plus three plus three and

1589
01:16:37,680 --> 01:16:41,559
Speaker 2: a half against UCLA. This is a battle of our

1590
01:16:41,640 --> 01:16:46,800
Speaker 2: team's preseason. I loved Arizona State more than way more

1591
01:16:46,800 --> 01:16:49,639
Speaker 2: than the market you loved Ucla. I think Arizona State's

1592
01:16:49,680 --> 01:16:52,439
Speaker 2: the better team. They have the better rushing attack. They

1593
01:16:52,439 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 2: get Tranna back too now he's their good short yardage guy.

1594
01:16:55,760 --> 01:17:00,720
Speaker 2: I worry about dtr and his shoulder. He didn't look

1595
01:17:00,760 --> 01:17:03,519
Speaker 2: healthy last week. He made a pass late. It looks

1596
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:05,040
Speaker 2: like they popped it in, but I'm not sure he's

1597
01:17:05,040 --> 01:17:07,559
Speaker 2: fully healthy. I'll talk more about this on the live show.

1598
01:17:07,600 --> 01:17:11,040
Speaker 2: But I think Arizona State I make them a favorite

1599
01:17:11,040 --> 01:17:11,960
Speaker 2: here so much.

1600
01:17:12,000 --> 01:17:12,519
Speaker 3: I like them.

1601
01:17:12,680 --> 01:17:15,719
Speaker 2: I think Arizona State shows that they're the class of

1602
01:17:16,000 --> 01:17:19,720
Speaker 2: the conference. Yes, that includes Oregon, and that's how high

1603
01:17:19,720 --> 01:17:21,880
Speaker 2: I am. When Arizona State run defense been a little troubles.

1604
01:17:21,960 --> 01:17:23,720
Speaker 2: They lost a couple piece on the defensive line, but

1605
01:17:23,760 --> 01:17:26,360
Speaker 2: I assume they just stacked the box here. Make dtr

1606
01:17:26,439 --> 01:17:28,320
Speaker 2: throw and that's not gonna end. Well, give me the

1607
01:17:28,360 --> 01:17:30,759
Speaker 2: more dynamic ride. You still has a great rushing offense.

1608
01:17:31,080 --> 01:17:34,840
Speaker 2: Arizona State even more dynamic. Gimme herm and the old

1609
01:17:34,880 --> 01:17:36,439
Speaker 2: ball coach Asu.

1610
01:17:37,200 --> 01:17:40,720
Speaker 3: You play to win the game, You play to win

1611
01:17:40,960 --> 01:17:43,400
Speaker 3: the game. Well, let's do a Friday night alert. My

1612
01:17:43,720 --> 01:17:46,760
Speaker 3: best bet is gonna come on Friday night with Maryland

1613
01:17:47,000 --> 01:17:50,240
Speaker 3: hosting Iowa. We have been waiting for Iowa to drop

1614
01:17:50,280 --> 01:17:52,320
Speaker 3: the ball with all these wins that they've had. They've

1615
01:17:52,360 --> 01:17:55,000
Speaker 3: already played in a hostile environment against Iowa State where

1616
01:17:55,000 --> 01:17:58,120
Speaker 3: they were gifted four turnovers which put them in immediate

1617
01:17:58,200 --> 01:18:01,120
Speaker 3: scoring position, and a little bit Flukey Box scores. This

1618
01:18:01,160 --> 01:18:03,679
Speaker 3: is an iw team that just be Colorado State by ten.

1619
01:18:04,120 --> 01:18:07,479
Speaker 3: They are struggling in all areas of offense. They can't

1620
01:18:07,479 --> 01:18:09,720
Speaker 3: pass the ball for explosive plays, they can't run the

1621
01:18:09,720 --> 01:18:13,040
Speaker 3: ball for explosive plays. They have been living on defensive

1622
01:18:13,080 --> 01:18:16,320
Speaker 3: turnovers for touchdowns, special teams play. I always been in

1623
01:18:16,360 --> 01:18:18,639
Speaker 3: a hostile enviarm, but they were gifted that again, Ames,

1624
01:18:18,760 --> 01:18:20,439
Speaker 3: Let's see what happens when they have to go up

1625
01:18:20,520 --> 01:18:22,840
Speaker 3: in a real hostile environment and they're not spotted field

1626
01:18:22,840 --> 01:18:26,080
Speaker 3: position around the thirty yard line in their opponent's territory.

1627
01:18:26,160 --> 01:18:28,439
Speaker 3: So I like Maryland to win this game outright. Take

1628
01:18:28,479 --> 01:18:29,599
Speaker 3: the points, all right?

1629
01:18:29,640 --> 01:18:32,800
Speaker 2: Thanks Colin as always for joining me. I cannot wait

1630
01:18:32,840 --> 01:18:35,080
Speaker 2: for Saturday. What a slate. I can't wait for that

1631
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:39,040
Speaker 2: Arkansas game. Let's get another cover for Sammy covers WO

1632
01:18:39,040 --> 01:18:41,960
Speaker 2: pick Silly. Thanks everyone for listening. Make sure you subscribe

1633
01:18:41,960 --> 01:18:45,679
Speaker 2: on Subscribe Subscribe. We'll do some giveaways on the recap

1634
01:18:45,680 --> 01:18:47,360
Speaker 2: episode that will be out Monday mornings. To make sure

1635
01:18:47,360 --> 01:18:50,320
Speaker 2: you leave review. Tell a friend telling enemy. Guys are

1636
01:18:50,360 --> 01:18:52,960
Speaker 2: like our extended family. Like I said before, let's sweat

1637
01:18:52,960 --> 01:18:56,120
Speaker 2: some games this weekend and get some winners. It's time

1638
01:18:56,160 --> 01:18:58,680
Speaker 2: for us to go find a couple extra winners for

1639
01:18:58,720 --> 01:19:00,400
Speaker 2: this weekend, so make sure you keep your eyes out

1640
01:19:00,439 --> 01:19:02,920
Speaker 2: on the Action neworkapin actionwork dot com. We'll catch you

1641
01:19:02,960 --> 01:19:06,639
Speaker 2: all on Twitter and on Monday morning for the recap

1642
01:19:06,680 --> 01:19:09,760
Speaker 2: episode and week six look ahead. We'll catch you all

1643
01:19:09,800 --> 01:19:09,960
Speaker 2: in it.

1644
01:19:10,080 --> 01:19:11,320
Speaker 3: Cheers, peace out,