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Speaker 1: We are in the final hours of the UK general election.

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Speaker 1: Opinion polls here have been remarkably consistent over the six

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Speaker 1: week election campaign. The opposition Labor Party is projected to win,

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Speaker 1: the question being about how big that victory might be

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Speaker 1: for Kissed Arma. Meanwhile, we had Boris Johnson making a

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Speaker 1: last minutes of prize campaign appearance, the former Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: warning voters of the dangers of giving the opposition Labor

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Speaker 1: Party a quote sledgehammer majority. Joining us now to discuss

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Speaker 1: is IPSOS UK and Ireland CEO Kelly Beaver. Kelly, good morning,

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Speaker 1: the final day of campaigning. How big a landslide is expected?

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Speaker 1: Exactly for Labor.

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Speaker 2: So there are quite big variances in the polls that

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Speaker 2: have come out, with constituency level estimates, the IPSOS estimates.

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Speaker 2: At the Minad, we're sitting at a Labor majority of

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Speaker 2: over two hundred and fifty seats, which is absolutely something

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Speaker 2: you would categorize as a landslide.

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Speaker 3: Kelly, Could the polls be wrong? I mean, it's something

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Speaker 3: that I'm sure the Labor Party is worried about, but

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Speaker 3: there are lots of voters also thinking about the same thing.

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Speaker 2: Yes, of course, that is a big question. Just here's

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Speaker 2: your daily reminder that Poland gives you a snapshot in

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Speaker 2: time read on how people think fail and what they

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Speaker 2: say that they're going to do. It isn't a prediction

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Speaker 2: of what's going to happen in the future. And even

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Speaker 2: those seat level estimates, which do give you a constituency

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Speaker 2: level projection, they're still projecting based on a snapshot of

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Speaker 2: what people tell you today. They are however, they're all

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Speaker 2: saying why it slight variation, They're all saying similar kinds

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Speaker 2: of things, and I think when you look at it

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Speaker 2: in the round, it does look like it is going

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Speaker 2: to be a strong labor majority. There are assumptions in

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Speaker 2: the polls though that might not hold true on election day.

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Speaker 2: And if I was to highlight three that might make

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Speaker 2: a big difference, I'll just do that for you know.

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Speaker 2: One of them is turnite. So it's really hard to

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Speaker 2: predict whether people are going to turn out, especially in

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Speaker 2: a circumstance where you have a strong lead. So almost

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Speaker 2: a pre sort of foegone conclusion, if you may. For

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Speaker 2: the public, you've got at this point in time record

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Speaker 2: political dissatisfaction and there's not a lot of enthusiasm for

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Speaker 2: the leaders of either the main political parties. We can

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Speaker 2: see in our data that certainty to vote, So people

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Speaker 2: who tell us I'm ten out of ten going to

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Speaker 2: turn up and place my vote. That's dropped ten points

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Speaker 2: since the same top and tame point in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 2: And we know that surveys tend to be quite imperfect

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Speaker 2: at measuring people's actual turnout, it does tend to overstate.

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Speaker 2: If you look at twenty nineteen, we had seventy four

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Speaker 2: percent of people telling us at a similar point that

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Speaker 2: they were going to turn out to vote. In the

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Speaker 2: end turnout with sixty seven percent. So at the minute

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Speaker 2: we've got sixty five percent saying they're going to turn

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Speaker 2: out to vote. Does that mean we're going to end

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Speaker 2: up with less than sixty percent potentially? And the last

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Speaker 2: time we saw something of that sort of level it

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Speaker 2: was two thousand and one, which was also an election

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Speaker 2: where people considered the conclusion to be already written. So

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Speaker 2: turnout is a big thing. The other two don't knows,

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Speaker 2: And we're sitting now with a high proportion of people

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Speaker 2: who still say they don't know how they're going to vote,

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Speaker 2: thirty six percent comparatively to at the same point in

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Speaker 2: the last electoral campaign and the ones before that, it

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Speaker 2: tends to be in the mid twenties by this point.

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Speaker 2: And then lastly, tactical voting. Almost one in five are

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Speaker 2: telling us that this election they're going to be voting tactically,

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Speaker 2: and that is higher than we've seen at the last

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Speaker 2: couple of elections. So there are still things that are

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Speaker 2: in play that could impact on what happens at a

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Speaker 2: local constituency level over the course of the next Well, goodness,

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Speaker 2: we're nearly there next day.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Look, I think it's very interesting that you

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Speaker 1: put those caveats, those warnings about what may happen in

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Speaker 1: reality versus the expectations. I think that's very interesting in

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Speaker 1: terms of the detail. You do so much poling. It

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Speaker 1: ipsos on the views of people in the UK and

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Speaker 1: many other places too. But why do you think voters

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Speaker 1: may abandon the Conservatives? Why the dissatisfaction after fourteen years?

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Speaker 1: You think you can sum it up.

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Speaker 2: There were two big moments before Rishie Sudac actually you

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Speaker 2: know ran this campaign because you could look at it,

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Speaker 2: and you could you could look at his own performance

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Speaker 2: and think, well, as it all down to the leader

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Speaker 2: of the party, Actually, if you look at what the

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Speaker 2: key Moomens have been where they have lost trust from

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Speaker 2: the public, but also where the public really dipped in

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Speaker 2: their satisfaction and government and when they felt that they

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Speaker 2: were not competent in role. It was the party Gate

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Speaker 2: scandals and then again through that list trust interlude of

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Speaker 2: a very short period of weeks. The damage that was

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Speaker 2: done in those those two moments were very hard for

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Speaker 2: the Conservative Party to recover from. And even when they

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Speaker 2: brought Richie sunac In and his own leadership ratings were

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Speaker 2: better than the party ratings as a whole. All that

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Speaker 2: has happened over that that sort of proceeding time is

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Speaker 2: that the sort of sense of competence of government, competence

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Speaker 2: of government, it hasn't improved, and his own personal ratings

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Speaker 2: have moved down to the level of the party and below.

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Speaker 2: So we've got a situation now where the campaign itself

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Speaker 2: has changed very little at the macro level.

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Speaker 3: Kelly, what about the rise of Reform UK. We were

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Speaker 3: speaking to one of the party's key downers, asked him

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Speaker 3: about whether there's a comparison between Mary lepenn and France

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Speaker 3: and Nigel Farage, and he pointed to the rise and

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Speaker 3: support for the national rally over the past two years.

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Speaker 3: Eighteen percent support to thirty three percent. Is that a

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Speaker 3: trajectory that we could see Reform taking.

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Speaker 2: So if I look across all the parties in the selection,

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Speaker 2: they have been probably one of two parties which have

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Speaker 2: been a bit more interesting in terms of the movement

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Speaker 2: in their own results from a voting intention perspective, Reform.

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Speaker 2: After Farag said he was standing, Reform did see a

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Speaker 2: rise in the vote share for them. Certainly our MRP

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Speaker 2: predicted or projected that they would tick, they'll take three seats,

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Speaker 2: and that is you know, that is very new news

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Speaker 2: for Reform and so we have seen arise. There's been

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Speaker 2: some more recent polling in the last few days which

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Speaker 2: has started to show the Reform votes subside again and

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Speaker 2: we will we will see I think, more from Reform

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Speaker 2: when the votes are counted than we have done our

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Speaker 2: previous elections from parties that stood of a similar ilk

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Speaker 2: to theirs, and it will be one to watch as

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Speaker 2: the Conservatives seek to rebuild their party after the electoral day.

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Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, it's going to be interesting to see that

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Speaker 1: a number of the kind of lower ted parties are

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Speaker 1: also very interesting Liberal Democrats, Quens Reform UK, Kelly, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for being with us, ipsos is UK

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Speaker 1: and Arl and CEO Kelly Beaver. I think just underlining

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Speaker 1: that all of this is based on the polling ten

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Speaker 1: out of eleven of the so called MRP. The detailed

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Speaker 1: polls that Bloomberg has gathered do show that Kirs Starmer's

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Speaker 1: party taking more seats than Tony Blair did in ninety seven,

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Speaker 1: but that is all still a projection.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and lots of food for thought and what Kelly

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Speaker 3: Beaver is telling us as well as voters are making

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Speaker 3: up their mind for going to the polls tomorrow