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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites

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Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network Game Chat Millman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It has been

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Speaker 1: a remarkable for seventy two hours if you're talking about

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Speaker 1: NFL quarterback musical chairs, free agency is coming, Draft is coming,

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Speaker 1: super Bowl futures are shifting. Here to break everything down,

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Speaker 1: everything we need to know about how to make decisions

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Speaker 1: right now in what is the most fun off season

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Speaker 1: for any league that there is, in the best betting

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Speaker 1: league in the world, Getting ahead of it now is

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Speaker 1: all that matters. Professional better. My bff, my companion, cham Padre,

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter hold On Simon plus my own personal nemesis

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Speaker 1: from our show, convinced me every Sunday during the NFL season.

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Speaker 1: Action Network Senior Writer. I hate saying it because he's

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Speaker 1: probably one of our best analysts of anything, whether it's NFL, NBA,

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Speaker 1: thinking logically, analyzing players, breaking things down, contextualizing, even though

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Speaker 1: I kind of can't stand and personally, Mr Chris Raybun Oh, well,

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Speaker 1: glad to be here, guys. I mean that's an introduction,

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Speaker 1: it was I mean, you essentially were like, I'm good

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Speaker 1: at everything except asking for a great job title. It's true,

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Speaker 1: maybe we should work sis and I just had something.

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Speaker 1: I've just had his review yesterday. He didn't ask me

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Speaker 1: for a new job title. Yeah, it's like it doesn't

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Speaker 1: really mean much. I guess like at the end of

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Speaker 1: the day. But it's now like when you just introugued

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Speaker 1: me and you like stumble through that, even though it

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Speaker 1: was a great intro, uh, now actually like we have

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Speaker 1: to revisit, so put that on the way. Call me after.

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Speaker 1: You're a great negotiator. We can negotiate after the show. Simon, dude,

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Speaker 1: you come back from vacation and as soon as you

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Speaker 1: get back, the NFL markets go crazy with quarterbacks making decisions,

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Speaker 1: gms making decisions. It's getting nutty out there. I know.

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Speaker 1: It's a weird time to where it's like i gotta

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Speaker 1: be doing my job and do football stuff and I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to watch some college basketball just get ready for

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Speaker 1: March madness. So it's like, I don't know, not the

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Speaker 1: best time in here, but it's definitely the most exciting. Um,

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Speaker 1: I mean, first shift, before you even get the free

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Speaker 1: agency the fans. No, This is Atlanta Falcons podcast. I

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Speaker 1: gotta hear about what happened. What was your day like

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Speaker 1: when you heard about Colin Ridley because Chad Millman, New

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Speaker 1: York Times Bestseller, the head of Action Network content. Were

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Speaker 1: you just like, holy sh it? Because again this is

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Speaker 1: before we knew it was a thousand five undre. When

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Speaker 1: I first saw that report, my mind went to the

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Speaker 1: dark place. I was like, oh my god, I've seen

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Speaker 1: Calinn really fixed games. He doesn't fix games. He's just

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Speaker 1: some idiot. That's all promo from Caesar's to get a

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Speaker 1: thousand betted. So I would love to hear what you

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Speaker 1: were thinking when this all broke. Yeah, this is crazy, right, So, um,

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Speaker 1: everybody I'm sure knows. But uh, it came out. It

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Speaker 1: was reported earlier this week. This is Thursday reported earlier

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Speaker 1: this week that Calvin Ridley uh in November of one

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Speaker 1: bet on NFL games. That was the initial report, and

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Speaker 1: that he had been suspended for a year. And then

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Speaker 1: the news came out he had bet. Uh, he had

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Speaker 1: bets and parlays when he had taken a voluntary leave

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Speaker 1: from the Falcons. He had done it u through the

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Speaker 1: hard Rock and like the one month that you could

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Speaker 1: bet online in the state of Florida. He did it.

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Speaker 1: He used his phone. And the integrity programs. I don't

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Speaker 1: say this to be like a student for the league

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Speaker 1: and sort of integrity programs through Genius Sports, but look,

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Speaker 1: they they have instituted these things because betting is legal,

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Speaker 1: because the leagues are taking money from the operators, because

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Speaker 1: they are in bed with everybody who's doing anything related

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Speaker 1: to betting, and they need to be as above board

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Speaker 1: as possible. They have talked about integrity from the get go.

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Speaker 1: So Calvin Ridley used his phone and bet this parlay

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Speaker 1: and it immediately got flagged by Genius and immediately got

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Speaker 1: sent to the NFL was investigated. Now the guy is

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Speaker 1: suspended for a year. Totally crazy that it happened, considering

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Speaker 1: how much education is time is spent on educating players, officials, executives, uh,

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Speaker 1: members of every league office about how you're not allowed

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Speaker 1: to bet on sports if you were involved in these games. Now,

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Speaker 1: NFL though, like he could have bet college and he

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Speaker 1: would have got his eleven million dollars. It's a coming season.

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Speaker 1: It was just because again because he bet NFL they

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Speaker 1: don't care about other sports stuff. Apparently that's that I

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Speaker 1: don't know, like it's to me all the they're all murky,

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Speaker 1: like all the rules are murky. And you know, I

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Speaker 1: was on a panel on in Boston on UH Friday

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Speaker 1: at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and uh one of

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Speaker 1: the paddelists is from the NFL League Office, and we

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Speaker 1: talked about betting, and she was clear, I can't bet

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Speaker 1: on sports, right, That's what she said. And so every

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Speaker 1: league is different. And I've got folks at the NBA

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Speaker 1: who I know they don't bet on they can't bet

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Speaker 1: on sports, right. So it's all interesting in murky. That

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Speaker 1: was a crazy day, and I feel like the story

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Speaker 1: would have had more legs and there may be more

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Speaker 1: to come out, who knows, but the story would have

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Speaker 1: had more legs if the next day wasn't Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: and the next day wasn't Russell Wilson, the next day,

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Speaker 1: as as crazy as it seems, wasn't Carson wentz Um.

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Speaker 1: But look, this is going to be a thing. This

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Speaker 1: is going to be a thing when betting is legal

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Speaker 1: in every state and you've got athletes with disposable income

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Speaker 1: who think they can it's not even about thinking they

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Speaker 1: can find an edge. It's just what people between like

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Speaker 1: one and fifty one or god knows how old are

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Speaker 1: doing now, and so it's introduced to more people. It's

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Speaker 1: one of the risks. And look, we're in the business.

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Speaker 1: I'm obviously an advocate for the business. I want there

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Speaker 1: to be a lot of sports betting. I wanted to

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Speaker 1: be as accessible to as many people as possible. This

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Speaker 1: is one of the things that that people are gonna

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Speaker 1: have to look out for. I'm just scared of if

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Speaker 1: it if it's ever a quarterback, a referee, a coach,

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Speaker 1: those are the big ones where when it was really,

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Speaker 1: honestly wasn't that I didn't think it was me that

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Speaker 1: big of a story. Like you said, I was kind

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Speaker 1: of blown over because again I think we all sit

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Speaker 1: back here and we all laughed about it, because it's

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Speaker 1: like this dude has been an eighteen parlays, five team parlays.

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Speaker 1: Like the day we catch a referee or Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: or someone betting k on the other side of whatever

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Speaker 1: game they're in through a proxy or whatever, if that

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Speaker 1: ever gets blown up, like that's that's the story of their's.

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Speaker 1: I just think there could be more of the story

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Speaker 1: because where there's smoked, there's fire, and let's be honest,

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Speaker 1: his mental break whatever you wanna call it, voluntary leave

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Speaker 1: was pretty out of left field and super suspicious to

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Speaker 1: begin with and just kind of mysterious. And so a

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Speaker 1: lot of times when you get these big things that

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Speaker 1: come out later, like you go back and there ended

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Speaker 1: up like was was something going on, but even before this,

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Speaker 1: because the leave in itself was odd, you know, kind

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Speaker 1: of like you know what happened with Gruden where we

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Speaker 1: heard this like one quote about that that happened with Gruden.

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Speaker 1: It was like, oh, well, that's that's kind of messed up,

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Speaker 1: but like okay, like he can come back from this,

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Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, like it comes out

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Speaker 1: after that that like all this other shop went down.

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Speaker 1: We're pulling back the curtain a little bit. You're saying

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Speaker 1: whatever reporter, editor, producer is saying at every sports media

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Speaker 1: entity right now, certainly what we all said at Action

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Speaker 1: on Monday afternoon, You've got to frame it like responsibly,

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Speaker 1: right because I think everybody in media right now has

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Speaker 1: some kind of investigative reporter trying to unpack more about

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Speaker 1: the Calvin Ridley story and action is no different, right,

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Speaker 1: we're reporting around it. We're trying to see, like we're

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Speaker 1: calling our sources and trying to see. I'm not giving

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Speaker 1: away a secret here, Like is voluntary leave and taking

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Speaker 1: a mental health break and the betting. Are they completely

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Speaker 1: disconnected and there's nothing there? Or is there something directly related?

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Speaker 1: We don't know. Nobody knows. It's irresponsible to say that

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Speaker 1: there is a connection, but everyone will look at that

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Speaker 1: and say, Okay, is that something to pull back? Is

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Speaker 1: that something to dig into? No doubt everybody is trying

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Speaker 1: to figure that out obviously. You know, it could be

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Speaker 1: the opposite way around it be did something happen that

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Speaker 1: just made him not want to play football anymore? You know,

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Speaker 1: whatever he was going through mentally? Could could he have

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Speaker 1: just kind of said fuck it if I get caught,

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Speaker 1: I get caught. Who you know, Because like even when

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Speaker 1: if the news first broke, like he didn't really seem

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Speaker 1: to care too much. He was like, jes ye'll no,

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Speaker 1: I don't have a gambling problem. I just got a

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Speaker 1: year L O L. Like you didn't see him too

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Speaker 1: broken up about it either. So I mean, we would

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Speaker 1: love to hear from him. But you know what we're

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Speaker 1: getting from him. Just it only lends fews to the

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Speaker 1: fire that he's not thinking about football the same way

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Speaker 1: he was a couple of years ago. I think that's fair.

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Speaker 1: That is, that's a better way to frame him. There

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Speaker 1: was a tweet that I saw somebody sent out the

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Speaker 1: NFL's team in Miami plays in the stadium sponsored by

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Speaker 1: hard Rock Casino. They take tens of millions of dollars

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Speaker 1: from gambling companies. They have an investment in a company

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Speaker 1: that is one of the leading data providers to gambling

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Speaker 1: companies around the world, and one of the players that's

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Speaker 1: on a part lay and get suspended for a year,

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Speaker 1: and so there's a lot of mixed messaging going on.

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Speaker 1: NFL players should not be betting on NFL games. I

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Speaker 1: think we can all agree on that. But it speaks

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Speaker 1: to how challenging an issue this is going to be.

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Speaker 1: And look, it speaks to the way in which the

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Speaker 1: view of betting has changed even in the past eighteen months.

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Speaker 1: Six months ago, draft DraftKings as a business was valued

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Speaker 1: at twenty six billion dollars. Today it's valued at seven.

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Speaker 1: The market, the frothiness of the market is changing dramatically

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Speaker 1: every single day, but the way that investors are looking

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Speaker 1: at sports betting generally is changing every day, and so

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Speaker 1: it's not just going to be Okay, here's a billion

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Speaker 1: dollar opportunity for everybody to cash in on. It's more like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: what is this really? What does this business really mean?

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Speaker 1: What is it? How are we capitalizing on it? How

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Speaker 1: are we protecting the players from it? How are people

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Speaker 1: engaging with it? We're entering that everyone always likes to

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Speaker 1: say we're in the first inning of sports betting. I

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Speaker 1: feel like we're probably entering the second and third inning,

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Speaker 1: and the middle innings are always the hardest. Yeah, all right,

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Speaker 1: let's get to it, because people do want to know.

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Speaker 1: Here's the irony. People do want to know what the

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Speaker 1: fund Do I better? Right now? What do I do

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Speaker 1: with all the information that's happening? Forget about all the controversy.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is staying with the Packers, Russell Wilson go

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Speaker 1: to the Broncos. Carson Wentz getting traded to Washington. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with Carson Wentz. That was an interesting move. It

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Speaker 1: most books, Washington Commanders were sixty two one before the trade.

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Speaker 1: They were sixty to one after the trade. One book

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Speaker 1: moved it down to seventy to one. We all laughed

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Speaker 1: about it. Raybon, you actually had really good thoughts on

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Speaker 1: why that might be the case, you know, and it

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Speaker 1: was win bet. I believe that that moved the odds down,

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Speaker 1: But I don't believe it was you know, they were

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Speaker 1: trolling or anything. I just think when you're making these odds,

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Speaker 1: you're factoring in, Okay, they have cat space, they have assets.

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Speaker 1: What can they do with this? You know what quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: are on the market, who can they potentially acquire? And

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Speaker 1: knew they were in the market for a quarterback, So

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Speaker 1: I just think, you know, Carson Wentz versus you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe a Deshaun Watson, maybe uh, having those draft picks,

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Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo who was rumored to them, Russell Wilson at

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Speaker 1: a time was a potential option. Even so, I just think,

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Speaker 1: you know, they're factoring all those things in. And now

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Speaker 1: that we know it's Carson Wentz and we know that

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Speaker 1: they're paying him all this money, and we know that

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Speaker 1: they gave up, uh, you know, some some picks for them.

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Speaker 1: Now it's like, okay, well now they're not as in

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Speaker 1: not as a good a position, uh as it could

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Speaker 1: have been potentially if things had broken a little bit differently.

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Speaker 1: Raybon just recorded a two part NFL Free Agency pod

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Speaker 1: on the Action Network channel. Action Network Podcast. It is

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Speaker 1: all about your betting guy, the NFL Free Agency, in

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Speaker 1: which you went through every single team discussing cap space

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Speaker 1: potential free agents. So you have never been more prepped

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Speaker 1: to come on this pod and hand it. Hand it

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Speaker 1: to Simon. Hunter's not a competition, chea. We're just trying

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Speaker 1: to give the people out here and what they want.

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Speaker 1: Everything is a competition. Okay, well, look like but here's

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Speaker 1: the point, Simon. Do you want to weigh in on

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Speaker 1: Carson Wentz and Washington and Washington commanders. Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty much right there with Chris. I look at

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Speaker 1: it though. It's it's great for Carson. It's his last opportunity,

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Speaker 1: this is it. So yeah, I might think it's a

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Speaker 1: dumb move and they're paying him a lot, way too

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Speaker 1: much money. At the same time, who the hell have

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Speaker 1: Washington has their quarterback in the last twenty years. Nobody,

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Speaker 1: So if Carson come in, they can spark something there.

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Speaker 1: He's playing his former team twice a year back in

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Speaker 1: his old division. I like to move for a one year,

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Speaker 1: you know, burner quarterback. Because it's just an often organization.

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Speaker 1: We've talked all the time. They're just their ownerships trash.

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Speaker 1: Their fan base is given up on the ownership. They're

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Speaker 1: one of the worst stadiums and all footballs and Eagles

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Speaker 1: fan we go there and we take over it whenever

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Speaker 1: we play them. So it's it's rough times right now

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Speaker 1: for watching him. But as much as I want to

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Speaker 1: laugh and make fun of this move, I don't hate it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just like they're they're they're they're getting

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Speaker 1: a guy who has tremendous upside. We've all seen these

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Speaker 1: moments are brilliance, but he just mentally isn't there. So

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Speaker 1: maybe they think they can change that. But to me,

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Speaker 1: I just think it's a waste of a year as

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Speaker 1: an organization because there's just nothing there for me. I

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Speaker 1: think it's tough also going because this is a great

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Speaker 1: fan base, Like it's a great fan base. They know

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Speaker 1: they deserve better, but it's also a tough place to go.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, the fans are gonna be on

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Speaker 1: you out here in Washington. I just don't think Carson's

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Speaker 1: built for I mean, I watched the Hard Knocks with

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Speaker 1: the Colts. I got to see him up close, and

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Speaker 1: you know, they've been showing us every quarterback every year

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Speaker 1: that's on that hard knocks and you kind of get

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Speaker 1: to see, you know, the level of leadership that's there.

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Speaker 1: And Carson to me, just didn't feel like a quarterback

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Speaker 1: right Like they're highlighting him and they're following him home

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Speaker 1: and they're showing him practice and showing him at meetings.

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Speaker 1: He just seemed like another linement or something like, you know,

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Speaker 1: he just didn't have the personality of a leader. And

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Speaker 1: there's actually an article that came out from Zach Keeper

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Speaker 1: at the Athletic that essentially said that since he walked

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Speaker 1: in at door in Indianapolis, um, they essentially people within

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Speaker 1: the organization knew it wasn't gonna work out and and

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Speaker 1: it came down to his leadership skills. And so I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's a marginal upgrade um on on what they had

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Speaker 1: last year. I think he can throw the deep ball

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Speaker 1: better um than what they had, and that will help

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Speaker 1: Terry mclauren. But uh, ultimately, I just don't think it

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Speaker 1: moves the needle. And I think, you know, having to

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Speaker 1: play Philly twice a year that's gonna be tough. I

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Speaker 1: just I just don't think he's built for Unfortunately, UM,

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Speaker 1: I do want to. I want you guys both to

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Speaker 1: dig in on, like where you're finding the best value now. Like, Simon,

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Speaker 1: you and I talked about this about a month ago,

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Speaker 1: and at the time you were all over the Falcons,

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Speaker 1: you were all over the Ravens, and like, I want

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Speaker 1: to get an update now that we've seen some real

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Speaker 1: things start to change. But before we do that, Uh,

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Speaker 1: let's let's examine in addition to Washington and Wins, let's

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Speaker 1: talk about Rogers. Let's talk about him saying he's going

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Speaker 1: back to Green Bay. Let's talk about what that gives

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Speaker 1: them for cap space and how does that position them

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Speaker 1: in an NFC where quarterbacking is kind of at a premium.

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Speaker 1: Right now, Simon, you go first. Right now. By the way,

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Speaker 1: the package are seven and a half to want to

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Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. I'm fan duel. That is the

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Speaker 1: second shortest odds after the Buffalo Bills at seven to one. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so people, and listen to show I know I don't

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Speaker 1: ever be at a future under twenty one, especially this

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Speaker 1: time of year. It's just rather invest my money and

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Speaker 1: do other stuff with it. Then let us sports book

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Speaker 1: hold it for nine months. So my advice to people

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Speaker 1: is unless it's over twenty to one, I just wouldn't

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Speaker 1: make the bet Green Bay. That's an awful bet. I mean,

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Speaker 1: excuse me. People last year gave a ship at this

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Speaker 1: time here because I said it was the stupidest bay

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Speaker 1: you'd ever make, bet on the Chiefs in Tampa Bay,

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Speaker 1: and my genius, No, it's just like you're buying on

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Speaker 1: an inflated line. You're literally buying. Like we talked all

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Speaker 1: about time about stock market, you're buying at the peak

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Speaker 1: and you're waiting to cash in in a long time

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Speaker 1: where you want to invest in the long shots that

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Speaker 1: maybe you can hedge out of do whatever later on.

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Speaker 1: And when I just look at that Green Bay line,

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Speaker 1: it's just no value, like seven oh one. Yeah, there

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Speaker 1: might be three good quarterbacks NFC, so maybe that's why

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Speaker 1: it's so low. But man, every year Rogers chokes and

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Speaker 1: then and at home, either on the road, at home,

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Speaker 1: whatever game it is in the playoffs. We've just seen

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Speaker 1: it time and time again that he just chokes. So

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Speaker 1: to me, I just would not put the investment. If

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Speaker 1: you if you want to bet him, just bet him

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Speaker 1: straight when you get to those games. But I would

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Speaker 1: not let us sports book hold my money for over

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Speaker 1: a year on an investment of Aaron Rodgers, who we've

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Speaker 1: just seen the time and time again. He just does

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Speaker 1: not do it in the playoffs, right man. I gotta

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Speaker 1: think you agree there absolutely. I mean, this team is

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Speaker 1: perennially overvalued in terms of your Super Bowl eyes, and

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Speaker 1: I think Simon brings up a good point. So like also,

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Speaker 1: and it's I think it's partly our fault too, because

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Speaker 1: we kind of feed into it. But like, here's other

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Speaker 1: odds you can bet besides just Super Bowl odds to like,

356
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Speaker 1: like if you want a better edge, Like, there are

357
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Speaker 1: edges to be had this time a year better, you know,

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Speaker 1: depending on cap space and things like that. Obviously, it's

359
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Speaker 1: you're still going to run into the same issue. You

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Speaker 1: know your BET's not gonna cash for a long time.

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Speaker 1: But like, you know, books have conference winner odds posted,

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Speaker 1: they have division winner odds posted, Like, there are other

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Speaker 1: edges besides taking a one in thirty two. You know

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Speaker 1: a thing that's gonna happen to one team out of

365
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Speaker 1: the thirty two, you know that that you could still

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Speaker 1: have some pretty good odds on but yeah, the Packers

367
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Speaker 1: are way over Valley because this, uh, you know, whatever

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Speaker 1: the Rodgers deal is gonna be, you know, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have the weast cap space in the league and by

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Speaker 1: a significant margin now, so they're gonna have to make

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Speaker 1: some moves and shift some things around or restructure guys.

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Speaker 1: But you might see some cap casualties uh there as well.

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Speaker 1: I mean both of the Smiths, um they could save

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Speaker 1: over twelve million dollars releasing both Preston and Darius each.

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Speaker 1: So I mean that's you know, is that on the table?

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Speaker 1: Who knows. But there's a good chance this team might

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Speaker 1: not even be as good as it was last year.

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Speaker 1: Remember they got the one seed last year. Um, you

379
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Speaker 1: know the guys like Russell Douglas, who you know, are

380
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Speaker 1: they gonna be able to bring him back? Probably not.

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Speaker 1: You know, guys like that, they were able to kind

382
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Speaker 1: of get you know, get lucky and kind of go

383
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Speaker 1: on a run there and they you know, they hold

384
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Speaker 1: their defense steps up and holds the forty Niners to

385
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Speaker 1: six points in a playoff game and they lose because

386
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Speaker 1: they give it up on special teams. So you know,

387
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Speaker 1: are they. I don't think they're gonna be better this

388
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Speaker 1: year than last. Now Tom Brady is not in the

389
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Speaker 1: conference anymore, so that helps. But I mean, my goodness

390
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Speaker 1: is you know, if you're betting Packers Super Bowl futures,

391
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Speaker 1: that's a terrible bet. Just wait till the Packers play

392
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Speaker 1: their home games and bet on them to cover the spread.

393
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Speaker 1: They're like one of the only favorites that covers at

394
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Speaker 1: home consistently. So just do it like that with Aaron Rodgers, Like,

395
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Speaker 1: there's no reason to to bet them to win the

396
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl right now, by the way, we think Tom

397
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Speaker 1: Brady it's gonna be playing right and the kind we

398
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 1: don't know that yet. We don't know that yet, which

399
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 1: could give you reason that you might want to get

400
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,200
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine at thirteen to one. But

401
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 1: let's talk about Russell Wilson. The team right ahead of

402
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Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty niners at one are the Denver

403
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 1: Broncos at twelve to one. They shout up as well,

404
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 1: that was a team that a lot of people might

405
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Speaker 1: have backed into buying them because they thought that's where

406
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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers was going to go. Trying to handicap the

407
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Speaker 1: moves they end up getting. Russell Wilson, I don't hate

408
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Speaker 1: I know you don't like to do anything under the

409
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Speaker 1: under twenty one, but like the Broncos at twelve to one,

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00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 1: it's not terrible. Yeah. Again, I would just pass on

411
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Speaker 1: it because, like you just said, it's I just don't

412
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 1: like investment in things like where you think that's good

413
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Speaker 1: value right now, just wait until the playoffs where they

414
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Speaker 1: might be a five or six seed like the four

415
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Speaker 1: Niners were last year. We got them at twenty to

416
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Speaker 1: one heading into the playoffs, where at this time last

417
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 1: year were twelve to one, and I just that's my

418
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Speaker 1: whole point. It's like you can invest your money now

419
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Speaker 1: and something else, come back later and take that money

420
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Speaker 1: and then put on these futures. So um, I'm looking

421
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Speaker 1: at Denver as I feel like Chris will be the

422
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Speaker 1: same page here with me. It's like I'm gonna use

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Speaker 1: their value being the shiny new toy and maybe get

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Speaker 1: better odds on the Chargers or the Chiefs and the

425
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Speaker 1: Chargers that that's probably where I'm gonna go with my money,

426
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Speaker 1: because I do think Brandon Stanley is gonna learn from

427
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 1: his mistakes last year of you do. I love the

428
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 1: I love the aggressiveness, but there are times you just

429
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 1: take the three. It's like, mathematically, if it's two seconds

430
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 1: left before half ends, you take the three. There there,

431
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,159
Speaker 1: it's not filth position game there, it doesn't matter if

432
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 1: you get the seven or the three. So I'm I'm

433
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 1: one of those where I'm gonna bank on the Chargers

434
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,719
Speaker 1: being better this year. That more they have more cap space,

435
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: don't improve. While everyone's talking about Denver, everyone's gonna talking

436
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs. You can find value probably on the Chargers.

437
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 1: So that's where I'm gonna put my money when I'm

438
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: looking at this Denver thing. Ray Bun, you got so

439
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: excited when he said that. Yeah, that's what kind of

440
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: stood out to me. And we talked about this yesterday

441
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 1: as well. Um, you know, the Chargers now are the

442
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 1: third in third place in terms of the odds to

443
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 1: win a division. Uh there plus there four to one

444
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: to win the division. They are twenty five to one

445
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. And I you know, I

446
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 1: just think those odds, you know, like that's one of

447
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: those twenty two one odds that you say, Okay, this

448
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: could work because guess what you have a quarterback. You

449
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 1: have a quarter and not just a quarterback, you have

450
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: a quarterback on his rookie contract. When did that work

451
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 1: out in the past? Oh right, it worked out last year,

452
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 1: um with the Bengals at least getting And it's also

453
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 1: I say, you don't only have to do Super Bowl futures.

454
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 1: You know, you could do a conference future the Charges

455
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 1: of fourteen to one. That's pretty good odds even for

456
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 1: you know, to win the a f C. And not

457
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: only that, but the Chargers are top five in cap

458
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 1: space and they play in Los Angeles, so they're gonna

459
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 1: be an attractive destination for a variety of reasons. And

460
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 1: a lot of people thought even last year that this

461
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 1: team had enough to make a deep run. So it's like,

462
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 1: now you got over forty million in cap space, you

463
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 1: got a quarterback on his rookie deal. Yes, it's an

464
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: extremely competitive division, but uh, there's no reason that the

465
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: Chargers can't be that team that you know, you know,

466
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: wins just as many games as the Chiefs and Broncos

467
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: and kind of you know that you know, sneaks into

468
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: the playoffs or whatever not. So I just think that

469
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 1: the Charges are are a great way to kind of

470
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: take advantage of Russell Wilson going to the Broncos because obviously,

471
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 1: you know that's the market is all over that their

472
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,640
Speaker 1: odds are skyrocketing. I think they're in a great spot.

473
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I think they were a quarterback away and um,

474
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: they're gonna be They're gonna be right there this year.

475
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 1: But uh, the charges are really from a betting perspective.

476
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 1: That's how you bet at this time of year, Like

477
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 1: you know, like that that's the value, that's that's where

478
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 1: you gotta go. You've said this a couple of times.

479
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 1: I want you to explain it to people. A QB

480
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 1: on a rookie deal, what's the significance of that? I mean,

481
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins right now, for example, I just put it

482
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 1: this way, Kirk Cousin is going to take up a

483
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 1: Viking salary cap this year. Uh, Carson Wentz is gonna

484
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 1: get like something like twenty eight million dollars this year.

485
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: Like the quarterbacks, even average quarterbacks are just drastically overpaid,

486
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:20,159
Speaker 1: um because they're still you know, or maybe it's not overpaid,

487
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: but they just cost so much money. So having a

488
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback that is good. He's got to be good. Obviously,

489
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 1: Herbert is Burrow is um on his rookie deal. There's

490
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 1: there's just um kind of a captain place to where

491
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: you know, you can only get so much money and

492
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 1: so there you're just getting ridiculous value. Um. Even if

493
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: look at a team like the Seahawks, how did we

494
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 1: get here? How do we get to the point where

495
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 1: they're blowing everything up and moving on from Russell Wilson? Well,

496
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 1: you know their their height of the Seahawks. Everyone talks

497
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 1: about the legion of Boom. Well, yeah, it was the

498
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 1: legion of Boom. And the fact that they had Russell

499
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: Wilson playing on a rookie deal, right, and then once

500
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 1: they had to pay Russ, then everything around out on

501
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 1: him went downhill and eventually he just couldn't, you know,

502
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 1: carry that burden anymore and it just didn't work. And

503
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 1: and that's kind of where that's kind of why that

504
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 1: rookie window is so important. So I love the Charges

505
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 1: because of that, and then because of the fact that

506
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: the Broncos now are are kind of pushing the Chargers

507
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:20,880
Speaker 1: odds down a little bit. You know, I get it's

508
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 1: all correlated, so it makes sense. But that's where the

509
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: value is Oh and by the way, talk about twenty

510
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 1: one or better Cincinnati Bengals to one to win the

511
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 1: Super Bowl this season and the Cincinnati Bengals because they

512
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 1: have Burrow on that rookie deal. Uh, they have the

513
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: seventh most cap space heading in the free agency so

514
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 1: like no one's talking about that. Like the Bengals got

515
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl, probably should have won it, and

516
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: they have the seventh most cap space. So yeah, Bengals

517
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 1: and Chargers, like those are two teams. That's it for me,

518
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: Like that's those are teams that I think that if

519
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 1: you're making a bet in March in the NFL, because

520
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 1: you're you just you just gotta get something down here.

521
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 1: That's where you gotta go. Simon, I know you feel

522
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: differently about the Bengals. Me and christ we were doing

523
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 1: so well this whole show. I hate the Bengals. Next year,

524
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna paid them all season literally, going from an

525
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: injured Brown's team to a healthy Browns team and injured

526
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 1: Ravens team to a healthy Ravens team. Yeah, maybe they'll

527
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: get another walk through with Pittsburgh like they dominate him

528
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 1: this past year. But I just can't deal with I'm

529
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 1: looking at the Bengals team that his first season he

530
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 1: tores knee up. His second season he partially towards knee up.

531
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 1: Historically cheap owner who does not spend the money, So

532
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 1: we could be sitting here they only spent twenty million

533
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: of that cat they have because they notoriously have a

534
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 1: cheap owner. I just the Bengals reek of a fluke

535
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 1: where it's like Joe Burrow. That was Leary, He's incredible.

536
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 1: They're all their playoff wins. The Raiders, that was pretty flukey.

537
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 1: They almost lost Derek Carr on that fourth down Tennessee Titans.

538
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: They should have lost that game a thousand times older

539
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: say with the Yeves the Rams one again, I'm with

540
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 1: you on that. I thought the Rams were choking in

541
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 1: that Bro hadn't partially torn his MCL, they would have

542
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: won that game going away. They literally were dominating that

543
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: ramp defense. As soon as he got hurt, he kind

544
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,479
Speaker 1: of could have moved in the pocket. That's how they

545
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: lost the Rams game. But I just I'm so off

546
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 1: the Bengals, and I hear what you're saying though, like

547
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: the rookie deal, I'm just I look at it. They

548
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,239
Speaker 1: had the opportunity this past year, and now they'll just

549
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 1: fade away the distant memory like it was always gonna

550
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 1: be good, but they just can't go on that run again.

551
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: I feel like you're still salty from from losing all

552
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 1: those Bengals bets in the playoffs. Man, I think you gotta.

553
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: I think you're just you're betting with your heart here,

554
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: because like you gotta look at it afford the super Bowl.

555
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: We know, we know no, but like seriously, I just

556
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 1: think you got look at objective we go. It's like, yeah,

557
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: most of the time you take a team coming off

558
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl win or loss, and they're gonna be

559
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: over value the next year. But now you're taking a

560
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 1: team that has a quarterback on his rookie deal that

561
00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: made the super Bowl and that twenty two to one

562
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: with you know this, you know, the top eight cap space,

563
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: Like that's just a good situation to invest in, Like

564
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 1: in my opinion, like that doesn't come along most years,

565
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: Like and they don't have to spend all their cap

566
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: space realistically, you know you could, especially the way things

567
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 1: are offensive lineman and you know, we just saw a

568
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: couple of decent offensive lineman be released. Um, you know

569
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 1: heading into free agency. I mean, you can get a

570
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 1: couple of guards, you know, for for cheap on you know,

571
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: one two year deal. Like their window is now. They

572
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 1: don't have to sign these like massive offensive line contracts.

573
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: They don't even need like a Toronto Armstead to be

574
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: like you know, they just gotta sign you know, maybe

575
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 1: a couple of interior a lignement um in a in

576
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: a right tackle. And I mean that's gonna be such

577
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 1: a massive upgrade to what they had last year. I

578
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: just think I just think it's a smart play because again,

579
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: I mean it's satisfies your criteria. It's greater than twenty

580
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: one quarterback on rookie deal. Like that's just I mean,

581
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: like they're right there with a charge, Like I don't

582
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: see much difference between them and the Charge. I think

583
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: both of them are in that same boat. They're similar

584
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 1: quality teams. Yes the Chiefs are better, Yes the Bills

585
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 1: are better, but they're in the running. They're telling you

586
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: something that let's start. I love about sports books that

587
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 1: give you a little secrets. And they are the third

588
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 1: highest pet team across the board for Super Bowl futures,

589
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 1: and the Rods have dropped, so there's obviously when they're

590
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: like you just said, there's smoke, there's fire, there's someone

591
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 1: knows something. Because it's interesting their odds have dropped even

592
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 1: though people have been betting them heavily ever since the

593
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: end of the Super Bowl. Hey, I mean books are

594
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 1: only so sharp. I mean, Chad just told you, Chad

595
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: just told you Draft king Stock Like it's just you know,

596
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: plummeted over the past year. Not you know, nothing against them,

597
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: you know, but you know it's just like listen, man,

598
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 1: I tracked all a sharp action and all this stuff

599
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 1: like sharps are overrated, books are overrated. At the end

600
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 1: of the day, you just gotta make you know, smart

601
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 1: bets where you see value like and I just think

602
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: I just think there's nothing that different between a bank

603
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: was in the charges, given the quarterback situation, given the

604
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 1: cap situation, um and given the roster situation. I just

605
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 1: think they're they're quality teams with quarterbacks on rookie deals.

606
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 1: Who have you know, long odds that you could put,

607
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: like you said, you could like at worst case scenario,

608
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: right like they probably get into the playoffs and like

609
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 1: you said, you can hedge it out. So I just

610
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 1: think it's good value college basketball championship season is here,

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Speaker 1: teams that fit the criteria. You guys are talking about

639
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 1: teams with starting quarterbacks who have shown greatness or potential

640
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 1: for greatness, or have had some kind of success, who

641
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: are on rookie deals. And what's remarkable is none of

642
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: these teams are amongst the top teams with the shortest

643
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 1: odds bills not you know, cap space, Yeah, and they're

644
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 1: all they're all their cap spaces not half spaces. Is

645
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 1: Packers not on a rookie deal, bad cap space Chiefs

646
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 1: not on a rookie deal. Rams not on a rookie deal.

647
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: They're always trying to maneuver for cap space because they're

648
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,479
Speaker 1: just trading away picks to get star players. Broncos now

649
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson. UM, Niners, Cowboys then come Ravens. Niners

650
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: are interesting to wait before you go on. Just the

651
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: Niners right now are over the cap. But if they

652
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: trade Jimmy Garoppolo, that clears up about twenty six million

653
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 1: cap space. That puts them above above average, in the

654
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:16,760
Speaker 1: top half of the league in terms of cap space,

655
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:19,759
Speaker 1: And they would have a quarterback on the rookie deal.

656
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: And pretty much every quarterback they've put out there has

657
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 1: like performed average or above average, like even beth Third

658
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: and Mowens had. Like I saw a tweet that uh

659
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,760
Speaker 1: like leaders in I think it was yards per attempt

660
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: since and like Bethard and Mullens were in the top

661
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 1: half of the league along with Jimmy g who was

662
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 1: numbered two, so like the Niners would quickly kind of

663
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:50,479
Speaker 1: ascend into that same conversation. Um, it's just that Trey

664
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 1: Lance still has a lot to prove. I think it

665
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 1: is more the issue there. It's like, whereas Herbert and

666
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: Burrow have kind of proven themselves to a degree already.

667
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: Um well, Lance hasn't, but they would kind of be

668
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 1: that other team that's there. But their odds also reflect that. Yeah.

669
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: I also, to me, I'm sort of slimming down the

670
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 1: categorization two quarterbacks on the rookie contract who have actually

671
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: succeeded at some level, right, and so in the NFL,

672
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: Trey Lance hasn't done that yet. So to me, the

673
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 1: Niners are not sort of befitting of your money because

674
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 1: he hasn't done anything, and their odds are too short

675
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 1: and they're over time. That's the Tom Brady effect. Like

676
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: people like me, I put a dime on them just

677
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 1: because just in case Tom goes there. Like I know

678
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 1: it's a long shot, but I mean, holy hell, dude,

679
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 1: if they got Tom Brady with that defense, that all offense,

680
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: that'd be crazy. Can I get to my point please?

681
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:55,280
Speaker 1: My point is this, the Ravens, the Patriots, Matt Jones,

682
00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:03,840
Speaker 1: Belichick being active in free agency, the Eagles one and

683
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 1: I'm gonna put it out there. I'm gonna put it

684
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:16,720
Speaker 1: out there, Okay, Chicago Bears eight one? Justin fields not crazy,

685
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: it's not it's not crazy. But let's talk about specifically

686
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 1: the Pats and the Ravens, because I think those are

687
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 1: more realistic given the parameters that we're talking about. Lamar

688
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 1: Jackson in the last year of his rookie deal, simon,

689
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: you go first on the Ravens. Yeah, that's my that's

690
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 1: my shortest future ads I did. I just did the

691
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,799
Speaker 1: Ravens and simple fact that they were so injury, so

692
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: many injuries last year. We know they'll come back, they'll

693
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 1: be better. Yeah, they're playing against the easy schedule just

694
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 1: because they came in last place or second to last

695
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 1: in that division. It's like we talk, we talk every year.

696
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,919
Speaker 1: That's that's a big deal. Like who you're playing week

697
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 1: the week. If you come in first, all of a

698
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,919
Speaker 1: sudden again you come in first place like the Bengals did.

699
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 1: That's a first place schedule. That's tough to get the

700
00:36:58,320 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: same type of seating or the same type of win

701
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 1: to get that seed. And so I'm just purely value

702
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 1: play off the Ravens. It's like I'm with people. I

703
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,279
Speaker 1: don't know how I feel about Lamar. I don't know

704
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,240
Speaker 1: I feel if I was a Ravens fan about paying Lamar.

705
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: But to me, it's the guy who was an m

706
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 1: v P at one point, we know is athletic talent,

707
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,280
Speaker 1: we know how good he is in the football field,

708
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 1: he's healthy, They're completely different team. And no team had

709
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 1: fewer losses by like a smaller margin last season than

710
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Like they're one of those teams that you

711
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 1: literally flip a coin last year and they could have

712
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: been the one seed if they had just flipped a

713
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: lot of those one score games. So I definitely like

714
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: the Ravens the bounce back candidate this year. Um Patriots,

715
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 1: no oral read on him, honestie, I don't. I like

716
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 1: what Mac did last year. We saw him hit that

717
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,240
Speaker 1: rookie wall. He kind of fell apart later in the season,

718
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: and then they went to the they went up to

719
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:49,280
Speaker 1: Buffalo and Josh Allen played a perfect game. So it's like, Patriots,

720
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 1: they're not as bad as they looked in the playoff games,

721
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: but are they as good as they looked throughout the

722
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 1: season last year? I don't. I don't really know what

723
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 1: to do with them yet, because again it's the Belichick effect.

724
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 1: It's like I want to fade them, but it's Belichick.

725
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:03,439
Speaker 1: I'm terrified of fading the greatest coaching football. So I'm

726
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: I'm probably not gonna touch their odds, but I definitely

727
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 1: will be one of those people back in the Ravens

728
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: for a lot of next season. Yeah, I like the

729
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 1: Ravens more than the Patriots. Uh Like, I just think

730
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 1: the Patriots have they have a high floor, you know,

731
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 1: a Pelichick's never gonna let them go like completely in

732
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: the tank. Uh. And I think Matt Jones is kind

733
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: of the same way. He's a higher floor quarterback. But

734
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 1: at least I didn't see anything to suggest he's like

735
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 1: he's got that Borrow ceiling. He's got that and and

736
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 1: part of it is I mean, you know, the receiving

737
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:38,720
Speaker 1: cords drastically different. But I mean I just don't see

738
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 1: Matt Jones throwing for like, you know, four hundreds something

739
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 1: yards and and completely changing the game the way a

740
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 1: guy like Burrow can or or Justin Herbert can. Um.

741
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 1: So you know, the Ravens we've and the Ravens just

742
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 1: have all these intangibles. I mean, Harbor has done a

743
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 1: great job. They're gonna, as Simon says, they're gonna get

744
00:38:56,480 --> 00:39:00,120
Speaker 1: healthier on defense. So oh, those two teams definitely the

745
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 1: Ravens for me. I think they're another one. But you know,

746
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 1: even saying that just to go not to be the

747
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 1: dead horse. But it's like both of the Ravens and

748
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 1: the Bengals have equal Super Bowl odds, and you forget

749
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 1: what you think about the Rosters and and all that

750
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,840
Speaker 1: and what happened last year, just but just going completely

751
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 1: on cap spaces, which is what we're kind of looking

752
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 1: at heading in the free agency, you know, saying a

753
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 1: lot of these teams are kind of questered together behind

754
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Bills. The Bengals have about thirty

755
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 1: five million in caps space, the Chargers have forty two million,

756
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 1: the Ravens have about sixteen, and the Patriots have about thirteen.

757
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 1: So you just see the drastic differences, you know, and

758
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 1: yet these teams are kind of qustered together. But you

759
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 1: just see the upside were for the teams like the

760
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 1: Bengals and Charges whereas like they're in this window now

761
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 1: and they could get better now, uh, you know, to

762
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 1: a greater degree than I think the Ravens uh and

763
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 1: the Patriots can um just because of that drastic difference.

764
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: So I just want to put that into some into

765
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 1: some context. How much do you Raybon, you guys do

766
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:05,240
Speaker 1: these two part podcasts and you're thinking about cap space

767
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 1: and free agency and all this stuff, and you're incredibly

768
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 1: well informed today, and so that's impressive. Uh, how much

769
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 1: are you thinking about draft positioning holes that can be

770
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 1: filled in the draft and where the opportunities down the

771
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 1: future's board, whether it's Super Bowl as you point out

772
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 1: that you don't have to the bet. Super Bowl could be,

773
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 1: Division could be Conference. Are there teams that sort of

774
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 1: in that twenty one range and below that you look

775
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 1: at and say, if they get the right draft position,

776
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 1: the right player, that's sneaky and we should go get

777
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 1: them now. No, I don't really because for two reasons.

778
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: Number One, the draft is I mean obviously, if you

779
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 1: just you know, have like your team is good of picks,

780
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:47,839
Speaker 1: I think that's that could be an issue if you're

781
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 1: not like in a win now window. But like, look

782
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 1: at the Rams, they've been five, the Broncos. You know,

783
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 1: they gave a boatload of picks, but look at their team,

784
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 1: like they should be good. But it's just it's kind

785
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 1: of goes back to like when you're betting during the

786
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 1: season and like somebody gets hurt and it's like, Okay,

787
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 1: how much is he worth to the spread? Like we

788
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 1: know the only player is really worth anything of substantial

789
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:08,359
Speaker 1: to the spread or quarterback, so that that kind of

790
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 1: feeds into their odds in terms you just extrapolating that

791
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,879
Speaker 1: in terms of their futures odds, and so no one

792
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,240
Speaker 1: player or even group of players is really gonna change

793
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 1: things to that degree. I mean, yes, Jamar Chase for

794
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 1: example for the Bengals was great, but it's still about

795
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:25,319
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. Like it's still you know, if they if

796
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 1: you don't have a quarterback, that's where a draft pick

797
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: could change everything. Um but even so, like then you

798
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 1: still just have a rookie quarterback, so you're still probably

799
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 1: a year away. So that's it's not like a major thing,

800
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 1: it's definitely something you're looking at more so, um, you know,

801
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 1: I think with maybe if you're betting like division, uh

802
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 1: straight up, like a division odds, you can kind of

803
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 1: compare the four teams and how they all match up

804
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 1: in terms of those things. But when when you're talking

805
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,760
Speaker 1: about like Super Bowl futures, I just think there's certain

806
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 1: teams that got it and certain teams that are a

807
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 1: year away or more. And it's not hard to see there.

808
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:02,359
Speaker 1: I'm right to Chris about that where it's like, as

809
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 1: which I wish I could predict how these guys will

810
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 1: drafts and how that's gonna affect the outcome. It's like,

811
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 1: did we know that Jamaar Chase and a kicker we're

812
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 1: gonna take the Bengals from never winning a playoff road

813
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: game to a super Bowl. It's like, you just can't

814
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 1: see these things coming. It's it's definitely you definitely need

815
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 1: the quarterback there. So for me, like Chad, you know

816
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 1: a team I'm heavily best in the second year quarterback,

817
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 1: It's gonna be the Jaguars. I love. I love just

818
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 1: really ugly gross teams that I know they have the quarterback,

819
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 1: the potential. They just need the coaching and to make

820
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 1: the right moves their free agency in other places. So

821
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: that's a team where if the Jaguars can nail this draft,

822
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: if they can get a good offensive lineman or de

823
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 1: line with that first pick and then use their other

824
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 1: picks that really fell out that roster, that's an exciting

825
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 1: turnaround team because it's like the FC South is kind

826
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 1: of terrible. Not that I don't believe in the Titans,

827
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 1: but it tell yous you win three years in a row.

828
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 1: When that division of the Colts, we don't know the

829
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 1: quarterback is. It's there's a lot of unknown in that division.

830
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: So for me, a hundred fifty one where you can

831
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 1: get them at the Jaguars. That's a fun second year

832
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: long shot where I could see their odds moving a

833
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 1: little bit after the draft if they really do draft

834
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 1: the right pieces. That's disgusting. Why would you why would

835
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 1: you even say that. That's like saying, yeah, let's definitely

836
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 1: bet the Jacks plus seventeen against the Texans in Week eighteen. HM. Terrible?

837
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 1: Which teams are totally fund right now, Like they they

838
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 1: cannot get under the cap. They've they're they're saddled with

839
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 1: a quarterback contract that is going to screw them for

840
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 1: the next twelve months, if not beyond Raybon who is

841
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:45,799
Speaker 1: totally screwed. I mean, first of all, we have to

842
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 1: put this into some context, like every like the Packers

843
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 1: for example, of the worst cash phase in the NFL

844
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 1: right now, but like they have Aaron Rodgers, every team

845
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,320
Speaker 1: can do what they need to do. A NFL contracts

846
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 1: are so dumb, like you can do what you need

847
00:43:57,640 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 1: to do to kind of get under the cap. But

848
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 1: with that being said, uh I worry about the Saints.

849
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,280
Speaker 1: I mean, the Saints have the second fewest cap space

850
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 1: and there's no quarterback to speak of, Like you know, what,

851
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 1: are you gonna run it back with Taysom Hill? Like

852
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen there? Now you have this this legal

853
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: drama that popped up with Alvin Kamara. I mean, the

854
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 1: Saints could be like they could win that division, or

855
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:25,600
Speaker 1: they could be really bad. Uh So I would worry

856
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 1: about them because if they don't have one of Like

857
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: when you look at some of these other teams that

858
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 1: are in capell like the Packers, the Rams, Um, the

859
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 1: Bucks that don't have a lot of cap space, the

860
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,240
Speaker 1: Chiefs are in the bottom, near the bottom of the league.

861
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:40,839
Speaker 1: Like these teams are teams that win. I mean, if

862
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:44,360
Speaker 1: you just look at the bottom uh ten in cap

863
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 1: space this year right now anyway, and this changes all

864
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: the time, guys, teams are making moves. But Bills, Cowboys, Niners, Chiefs, Giants, Bucks, Vikings, Ram, Saints, Packers,

865
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 1: almost all of those teams are very good. So the

866
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 1: teams that you would say are fucked Giants, they don't

867
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 1: belong in that group. Like, you know, for a team

868
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 1: not to have cap space and have a roster that bad,

869
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 1: not a good sign Saints for a team just lost

870
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 1: their their great coach and have no quarterback. For them

871
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 1: to be that deep in the whole and not have

872
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 1: a great roster, that's troubling. And then the Vikings kind

873
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 1: of you look at it and say, each I mean

874
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins taking up twenty two percent of that cap uh,

875
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 1: and you know you don't want to move them or

876
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 1: anything because it's still having Kirk Cousins still gives you

877
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 1: a better chance than not having Kirk Cousins. Unfortunately. Um

878
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 1: so like those teams. And then you know the Bucks,

879
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 1: I mean, if they can't find a quarterback, I mean,

880
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 1: they still have a lot of pieces, but you're not

881
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:46,839
Speaker 1: gonna win a Super Bowl playing gabber, so I don't

882
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 1: that's not a great situation either. But um yeah, the

883
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 1: Giants in them, Saints really kind of stick out there.

884
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,320
Speaker 1: They're not in that same group. They should not be

885
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:57,640
Speaker 1: this far in the whole heading into free agents. Once

886
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,279
Speaker 1: the Giants signed. We talked about this last night at

887
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 1: the Millman dinner table. Once the Giants sign Mitch True Whisky,

888
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: and he proves that Matt Nagy was a fraud of

889
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 1: a coach who coached the Chicago Bears into the bottom

890
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 1: of the bucket. And Trubisky gets his shot to become

891
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,720
Speaker 1: a Hall of Famer because he was not utilized correctly.

892
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: The Giants one of the most incredible turnarounds in NFL history. Yeah,

893
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 1: I mean I was good. I don't think you have

894
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 1: to be too worried. Chat. It's his nickname was one

895
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 1: read Mitch for a reason, Like the kid would make

896
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 1: one read if wasn't there, he'd pull it down. So

897
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 1: maybe he's updated and changed one year and with the Bills,

898
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 1: but I don't know, man, there was a reason all

899
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 1: these teams didn't want to make him any offer last year,

900
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 1: and he was a backup for the Bills. You know.

901
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: It could solve two problems for the Giants though, Like

902
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,240
Speaker 1: if he if he really just is good under Bryan

903
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 1: Davo and he Gable just somehow unlocks the best of

904
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,960
Speaker 1: Mitch true Bisky. Not only do the Giants have a quarterback,

905
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 1: but then they can move Daniel Jones to running back

906
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:14,760
Speaker 1: and they'll finally have a running back because Sacon Barkley

907
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 1: is apparently not who he was. Uh, you know a

908
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 1: couple of years ago, you know, just three yards and

909
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 1: a cloud of dust. So hey, you never know. Listen,

910
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 1: here we are just a podcast, just a betting podcast,

911
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 1: solving all the problems of the NFL. That's what we

912
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: do here. Cha. You're just gonna skip over me like

913
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 1: I'm a piece of meat. What do you mean you

914
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 1: didn't ask me when I'm down on? All right? Who

915
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 1: are you down on? Keeping on your show? You Bengos

916
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 1: time and you clearly down on the banks. You made

917
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: that very clear. Listen, don't listen. Don't you come back

918
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:53,399
Speaker 1: from vacation and like your tan and it's like your

919
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 1: whole body is sensitive. Not just tell me who you're

920
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: down on. Maybe maybe I missed it, Maybe I got

921
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,760
Speaker 1: caught up and miss Robisky euphoria and I completely forgot

922
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 1: to ask the follow up. And he's the answer. In

923
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:09,440
Speaker 1: Miami we talked about with Stephen Ross. They have so

924
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 1: much drama. They're the team that they messed up the

925
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 1: tank season. They didn't get Joe Burrow, who's looking like

926
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 1: a Hall of Fame or two years in, they didn't

927
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:19,839
Speaker 1: get Herbert because they passed on for two Uh that's

928
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 1: just that's one of those teams Miami. They could if

929
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 1: they struggle earlier in the season, they could fall apart

930
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 1: quick because you hear you've heard the whispers about them

931
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,279
Speaker 1: not really committed to A and Brian Flores trying to

932
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: get Watson in there, and now he's gone. They got

933
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 1: the new coach in there who he seems like a

934
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 1: cool dude, but he seems like he is stone seven.

935
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 1: Every time I hear this dude talk, I'm like, wow,

936
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,319
Speaker 1: that is the highest coach I've ever heard. So I

937
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 1: don't know, Miami is just making me nervous. I love

938
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 1: the bet on Miami, but they got drama and they

939
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 1: might have whipped big time on taken to over Herbert.

940
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:55,879
Speaker 1: That's that's not even a Mike, that's a I think

941
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 1: it's already in judgment here. That's not looking good now

942
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 1: you got it, you know, like listen, borrow Herbert these guys,

943
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 1: you know it doesn't like we already see it. Like

944
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 1: it's like the best too, I could hope for is

945
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:13,360
Speaker 1: to be like Jimmy yeah, yeah, yeah, like like you

946
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: put him on a good situation and he can almost

947
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 1: get you there. Like that's all and I was high

948
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 1: onto it coming out, you know, I bought into, you know,

949
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 1: the leadership qualities and what he did in school, but

950
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 1: just watching him in the NFL, it's like you kind

951
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 1: of already know. Um. And we should mention the Dolphins

952
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 1: have the second most cap space. So I think the

953
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 1: real disappointment for me and it's again, you know, let

954
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 1: the legal situation settle, but like taking yourself out of

955
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 1: the Deshaun Watson running based on football reasons. Like obviously

956
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:49,400
Speaker 1: you know some people are gonna say they have morals

957
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 1: this than that, but like, if this man is available

958
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 1: to play football, he is by far the best quarterback

959
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 1: on the mark, and I mean by far, so taking

960
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 1: yourself out of that running um, And it goes for

961
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 1: any team that's doing that. UM, I just think you

962
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:13,240
Speaker 1: have to kind of, you know, lower to expectations because

963
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 1: he's that one guy. Now all the all the stuff

964
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 1: we're talking about, now, he could change it off he

965
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 1: goes to whatever one of these teams, Like, that's the

966
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 1: one guy that that that that could change a franchise

967
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 1: that's available or could be available. All right, well then

968
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 1: let's let's end it like this, Simon, give me the

969
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 1: team you would bet on right now trying to handicap

970
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 1: where Deshaun Watson ends up. I can't do it. I

971
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 1: mean there's I have no idea because I just I

972
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna get away with it. I think

973
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 1: he's gonna get this year off, like stuff is gonna

974
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 1: come out of court. The more I read about it,

975
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 1: just like this to do that a problem Like I

976
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 1: don't know if he still has that problem, but clearly

977
00:50:57,640 --> 00:50:59,840
Speaker 1: something's wrong with this dude in his head. So I

978
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:02,839
Speaker 1: I just don't see him playing this season. I'm one

979
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:05,359
Speaker 1: of those those betters where I'm off of the Shawn

980
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 1: Watson more I've read about it, I just don't think

981
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 1: he plays this year. Thoughts on where he's gonna go, Like,

982
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 1: what's his most you were if you had a handicap.

983
00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 1: You know, we're playing quarterback sort of musical chairs here,

984
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:19,359
Speaker 1: if you had a handicap based on where everyone else

985
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,120
Speaker 1: has landed, like you said, the best player on the market.

986
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:24,760
Speaker 1: If you're trying to guess and say take a flyer

987
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 1: on a team, is that the Panthers? Like how are

988
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:29,800
Speaker 1: you predicting where he ends up? I think the Indian

989
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 1: appo was Colts. You know why. Two things. Number One,

990
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 1: after that Wednesday, they now have the most cap space

991
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 1: in the league, had an in a free agency. Number Two,

992
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:45,400
Speaker 1: I always feel like when you have executives that are

993
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 1: on a team and they're in a division with another

994
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: player and they see that guy twice a year and

995
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 1: he has some success against though, I feel like they

996
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 1: they're always it's kind of like scouts that scout a

997
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 1: certain part of the country. So it's like all the guys,

998
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 1: they're kind I know, bringing you back and saying, we

999
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:04,000
Speaker 1: need to go get this guy. Uh, you know from

1000
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 1: obviously that that region. So I just think coats in

1001
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 1: the division now, you know, would would the Texans trade Indivision?

1002
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 1: Maybe not, but I can see it happen if they

1003
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:15,359
Speaker 1: offer the right you know, the right deal and they

1004
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 1: have this catch based and the assets to kind of

1005
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:19,879
Speaker 1: do it. Uh And and and they're the team that every

1006
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 1: year quarterback for higher Indianapolis Coast, So that would be

1007
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:25,759
Speaker 1: my bet. Nice you to take a stand on that.

1008
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 1: Simon was a bit of a coward, but that's cool.

1009
00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:34,840
Speaker 1: Damn shots shots fired, all right. This has been the

1010
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume podcast Network for my co host

1011
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:45,879
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter for my uh nemesis Chris Raybon for our

1012
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:50,760
Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell I am Chad Millman. Download us from Spotify,

1013
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 1: from Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast. Rate reviews,

1014
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: subscribe five stars, Say whatever you want until next time,

1015
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:00,520
Speaker 1: Love you,