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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner.

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Speaker 2: We're tracking a couple of stories this morning, including news

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Speaker 2: of an Israel Hama ceasefire, and in a moment will

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Speaker 2: be joined by doctor Ariel Cohen of the Atlantic Council,

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Speaker 2: and of course we'll be looking at markets. Our guest

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Speaker 2: today is Ross Mayfield of baired Private Wealth Management. We'll

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Speaker 2: check in with him a little later on, but first

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Speaker 2: the future of TikTok in the US. We go to Tokyo

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Speaker 2: and join Katherine Thorbek. She covers tech for Bloomberg Opinion,

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Speaker 2: and she's been writing about the potential of an Elon

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Speaker 2: Musk takeover of TikTok's US operations. Catherine, thank you for

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Speaker 2: making time to chat with us on this story. I

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Speaker 2: think we've got to set the scene up front. TikTok,

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Speaker 2: as we know, is facing a band in the US

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Speaker 2: beginning Sunday. That's unless the Supreme Court were to intervene

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Speaker 2: on a new US law law requires the app to

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Speaker 2: basically sell itself by the nineteenth otherwise face a ban.

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Speaker 2: And earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that the Chinese government

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Speaker 2: has even discussed the possibility of a sale to Elon Musk.

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Speaker 2: What is your take on a potential Musk ownership.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, Dougs. So, I think Elon Musk swooping in

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Speaker 3: here is not as crazy as it sounds at first.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's long said that he hopes to create

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Speaker 3: an everything app, and incorporating TikTok into X, which is

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Speaker 3: formerly Twitter, would take a step toward that goal. It

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Speaker 3: would also unlock a potential gold mine of training content

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Speaker 3: for his AI startup. And you know, he's a close

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Speaker 3: ally of the incoming president. But I think more importantly

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Speaker 3: for him, even if it doesn't necessarily make business sense

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Speaker 3: for the world's wealthiest man to sort of swoop in here,

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Speaker 3: I think that this would really help him cement his

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Speaker 3: influence over American discourse, which you know he's definitely done

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Speaker 3: on X. That said, I also think it was really

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Speaker 3: interesting that these sort of rumors came from Beijing. Came

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Speaker 3: from China because in the past any sort of talks

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Speaker 3: about a TikTok sale was sort of a non starter.

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Speaker 3: You know, Beijing a couple of years ago actually tweaked

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Speaker 3: its export laws so that you know, it couldn't TikTok's algorithm,

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Speaker 3: and TikTok couldn't be sold to a US buyer, and

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Speaker 3: in the past they very forcefully signaled that they're very

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Speaker 3: opposed to this, you know. So I think the fact

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Speaker 3: that Elon Musk's name was now floated around as a

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Speaker 3: potential buyer, I think it's interesting for a number of reasons,

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Speaker 3: including the fact that Elon Musk is one of the

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Speaker 3: few US you know, business leaders that actually still has

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Speaker 3: exposure to China's market through Tesla, his electric vehicles company.

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Speaker 3: So I think there's so many layers here. It's obviously

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Speaker 3: not a done deal, and there's a lot of things

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Speaker 3: still up in the air, and a spinoff would be

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Speaker 3: very messy. But I think that this isn't as sort

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Speaker 3: of out of left field as it might sound at first.

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Speaker 2: You right, that in the past, China has signaled a

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Speaker 2: complete rejection of this sale, and they even went so

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Speaker 2: far as and when I say they, I'm talking about

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Speaker 2: officials in Beijing tweaking export laws as a display of

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Speaker 2: fierce opposition. And this kind of goes to the algorithm,

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Speaker 2: does it not, which is really the goal that TikTok

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Speaker 2: has kind of built around that's right.

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Speaker 3: So in the past, you know, as I mentioned, sort

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Speaker 3: of discussions about selling TikTok to a US buyer, we're

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Speaker 3: sort of a non starter. And I think part of

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Speaker 3: that is, you know, Beijing doesn't want to sort of

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Speaker 3: lose face here or feel like it's been forced into this,

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Speaker 3: and obviously, you know, I want to be sensitive. You know,

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Speaker 3: TikTok and Byte Dance are a sensibly private companies, but

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Speaker 3: with all sort of these business dealings in China, you know,

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Speaker 3: Beijing ultimately does have some sort of say and that

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Speaker 3: that does come down to this export law that they

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Speaker 3: tweaked back when you know, talks of TikTok being banned

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Speaker 3: in the US first sort of emerged back in I

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Speaker 3: think it was twenty twenty Trump's first term. So I

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Speaker 3: think it's interesting now that Elon Musk has sort of

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Speaker 3: emerged as this potential broker. But I think it's interesting

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Speaker 3: because you know, Beijing might feel like they still might

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Speaker 3: be able to wield some sort of power over Musk

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Speaker 3: because of his business dealings in China. So Elon Musk

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Speaker 3: sort of walks this very fine line where he's you know,

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Speaker 3: a close ayley of Trump, but at the same time,

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Speaker 3: his business empire, and especially Tesla, is very much tied

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Speaker 3: up in China, and a lot of other US business empires,

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Speaker 3: you know, are not in that market, whereas Tesla recently opened,

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Speaker 3: you know, a big plant in Shanghai, and you know,

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Speaker 3: actually has access to the Chinese market and has been

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Speaker 3: you know, that's been a source of revenue for Elon Musk.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's interesting that they may be open

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Speaker 3: to some sort of sale of TikTok if Elon Musk

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Speaker 3: is involved. At the same time, it's not totally clear

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Speaker 3: that Elon Musk even knew about this before this Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: sort of bombshell reporting dropped earlier this week.

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Speaker 2: You put your finger on something I think it's worthwhile pursuing,

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Speaker 2: which is data collection. I mean, this is certainly one

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Speaker 2: of the pushbacks you know that for Chinese ownership, right

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Speaker 2: that you wouldn't want a Chinese entity to be in

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Speaker 2: control of vast amounts of data on American consumers. That

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Speaker 2: wouldn't change ostensibly, it wouldn't change under a Musk ownership,

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Speaker 2: would it not? Does that raise any red flags?

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Speaker 3: So I think it's really interesting because a Musk takeover

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Speaker 3: would assuage Washington's spheres about Beijing potentially having access to

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Speaker 3: vast troves of US user data and you know, potentially

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Speaker 3: being able to influence content, which is, you know, what

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Speaker 3: the big national security concerns are. But at the same time,

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Speaker 3: the trade off here seems to be that Elon Musk,

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Speaker 3: the world's wealthiest man, might be able to you know,

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Speaker 3: influence content on TikTok and then he would be able

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Speaker 3: to collect all this vast data on users, and so

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Speaker 3: he might not be sort of a foreign adversary. But

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Speaker 3: I think it kind of also exposes that, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's still you can still use money and power to

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Speaker 3: sort of buy this sort of social media influence campaigns.

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Speaker 3: And I think you know, if you look at what

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Speaker 3: Elon Musk has done to X, you know, a lot

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Speaker 3: of users have actually left X since he took over

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Speaker 3: more than two years ago. You know, they decamped to

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Speaker 3: metas threads or you know, this upstart Blue Sky, And

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of people are feeling like, you know,

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Speaker 3: Elon Musk has made changes to X formerly Twitter that

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Speaker 3: sort of put his own tweets at the top of

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Speaker 3: people's feeds, and you know, he's sort of he's sort

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Speaker 3: of like been able to tweak out to tweak Twitter's algorithm,

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Speaker 3: X's algorithm, so that he really has a huge influence

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Speaker 3: over the platform and he really helps drive discourse. And

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of TikTok users are like, you know,

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Speaker 3: we don't necessarily want that. We don't see that as

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Speaker 3: a win, even if it saves the app from being

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Speaker 3: banned in the US.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting too, because we're getting indications that not only

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Speaker 2: TikTok creators, but TikTok users as well have been flocking

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Speaker 2: to other Chinese social media platforms. And it's curious to

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Speaker 2: me because the law in China is that if you're

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Speaker 2: a Chinese company and you're collecting data, you must, if asked,

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Speaker 2: turn that data over to the Chinese government. So the

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Speaker 2: same issues for these other social media platforms would apply

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Speaker 2: as they have applied to ByteDance. Is that not true?

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Speaker 3: So I think that these TikTok refugees and a lot

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Speaker 3: of them are flocking to this app called Shock, this

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Speaker 3: app called Shaohomshu or red Node in English. And I

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Speaker 3: think that this sort of movement is really interesting because

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Speaker 3: it started as sort of a protest of you know,

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Speaker 3: if you're going to ban TikTok, we're all going to

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Speaker 3: go to this other Chinese owned app and we're going

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Speaker 3: to sort of poke fun at you know, these sort

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Speaker 3: of whack a mole approach to app regulation and tingling

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Speaker 3: out TikTok. But at the same time, I don't think

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Speaker 3: it's going to last. But I think that there's been

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Speaker 3: a really interesting sort of cultural exchange happening on shaoholm

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Speaker 3: Shoe right now, which is, you know, Chinese teens and

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Speaker 3: American youth are sort of interacting online for the first time,

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Speaker 3: and you know, sharing photos of their cats with each other,

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Speaker 3: helping each other with you know, English homework. Chinese people,

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Speaker 3: excuse me, American teams are you know, learning Mandarin Internet slag.

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Speaker 3: And I don't think any lawmakers in Washington could have

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Speaker 3: expected this, But I do think it's sort of You're

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Speaker 3: absolutely right that the sort of data collection and privacy

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Speaker 3: and national security risks that Washington is so concerned about

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Speaker 3: absolutely apply to Showholm Shoe, if not more than TikTok.

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Speaker 1: But I think that.

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Speaker 3: These sort of TikTok refugees, these TikTok users and creators

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Speaker 3: that are flocking to this app are sort of, you know,

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Speaker 3: letting Washington know that you know this, this sort of

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Speaker 3: approach of just singling apps out one by one doesn't

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Speaker 3: actually in the absence of sort of comprehensive data regulation.

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Speaker 3: There are ways around this, and I think that they're

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Speaker 3: trying to sort of protest that if that makes sense.

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Speaker 2: It does. Indeed, Catherine, it's always a pleasure. Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much for making time to chat with us. She

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Speaker 2: is Katherine Thorbeck, Bloomberg opinion columnist, and you can read

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Speaker 2: her latest piece right on the Bloomberg terminal. Elon Musk

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Speaker 2: won't save TikTok. Katherine joining us from Tokyo, so we

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Speaker 2: turn our focus to the Middle East. Israel and Hamas

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Speaker 2: have agreed to a cease fire. This brings a temporary

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Speaker 2: halt to the war in Gaza now. The ceasefire will

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Speaker 2: begin on Sunday and last six weeks. Thirty three hostages

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Speaker 2: captured by Hamas after the attack on Israel back on

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Speaker 2: October seventh, twenty twenty three will be released, and Israel

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Speaker 2: will withdraw from populated areas of the Gaza strip and

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Speaker 2: release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. For some reaction. We're joined

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Speaker 2: now by doctor Ariel Cohen, he a senior fellow at

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Speaker 2: the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. Ariel, thank you so much

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Speaker 2: for making time to chat with us. Can I begin

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Speaker 2: by just getting your reaction to what has unfolded over

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Speaker 2: the last several hours.

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Speaker 4: Indeed, these were very tough negotiations. I think in the

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Speaker 4: big scheme of things, Israel came out as a losing side.

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Speaker 4: It will be releasing one thousand, six hundred and forty

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Speaker 4: Kamas and Allied terrorists. Don't forget, besides Kamas, there's Pusinian

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Speaker 4: Islamic Jihad, a subsidiary of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard

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Speaker 4: Corps organization controlled by Tehran. So their terrorists will come

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Speaker 4: out as well, and not all of them will go

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Speaker 4: to Gaza, some of them, hundreds of them will go

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Speaker 4: to the West Bank, Judea and Samaria, where they will

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Speaker 4: be the leaders of the next iteration of this terrorists

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Speaker 4: campaign against Israel.

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Speaker 2: How would you assess the probability that this ends the

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Speaker 2: wor or is it something that we should just be

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Speaker 2: grateful for in the moment and the risk of war

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Speaker 2: still exists.

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Speaker 4: You know, in Judaism there is a principle that one

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Speaker 4: who saves one soul as if saved the whole world.

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Speaker 4: And this is what is driven the Israeli unprecedented concessions.

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Speaker 1: It Israel is doing it.

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Speaker 4: For forty plus years when I was a young journalist

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Speaker 4: in Israel, they did that. I was strongly against it

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Speaker 4: then and I'm against it now. I'm, of course in

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Speaker 4: favor of release of the babies and children of women

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Speaker 4: who were raped and maimed, of men who were tortured. However,

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Speaker 4: releasing over fifteen hundred terrorists and allowing Hamas a free

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Speaker 4: reign in Gaza is courting disaster in the future.

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Speaker 2: We have an outgoing administration in the US. President Biden

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Speaker 2: is stepping down obviously in press Sendent Elect Trump will

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Speaker 2: be inaugurated on Monday. Now. President elect Trump's envoy was

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Speaker 2: involved in some of these conversations. Both the Biden administration

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Speaker 2: and the incoming Trump administration have taken some credit for

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Speaker 2: this deal. Would you like to weigh in on who

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Speaker 2: you believe had greater influence in getting this deal done.

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Speaker 4: We have a sitting president. I think Biden went out

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Speaker 4: of his way to force Israel to provide concessions to Kamas.

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Speaker 4: Having said that, I've been in Israel a couple of

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Speaker 4: times since the tragic and terrible attack on October seventh,

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty three, and there was a lot of domestic pressure.

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Speaker 4: There's also pressure on NATANYAO to launch a judiciary commission

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Speaker 4: of inquiry under the Israeli law for that an independent

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Speaker 4: commission as to what happened on October seventh, and this

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Speaker 4: outcome will be yet another step to force NATANIAO to

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Speaker 4: appoint such a commission. It is, in my view, absolutely

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Speaker 4: necessary to get to the bottom of a tremendous strategic

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Speaker 4: failure for the history books. Just as a victory initial

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Speaker 4: victory against Balak with the attack in September is for

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Speaker 4: history books and will be studied in military academies. The

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Speaker 4: collapse of deterrence in October of twenty three and the

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Speaker 4: lack of advanced warning and knowledge in Israel will be

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Speaker 4: studied in the future all over the world.

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Speaker 1: Ariel.

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Speaker 2: So far, we have yet to hear from Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Netnyahu directly, although the Office of the Prime Minister did

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Speaker 2: release a statement indicating that several details still needed to

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Speaker 2: be worked out and the deal hadn't been finalized. Having

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Speaker 2: said that Katari and US officials went ahead and declared

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Speaker 2: AC's fire. Anyway, So when we do hear from the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister himself, what do you think he will have

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Speaker 2: to say.

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Speaker 4: He is going to say that this was a very

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Speaker 4: hard deal for him for Israel, and you know, there's

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Speaker 4: always a hope for a better tomorrow. But leaving a

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Speaker 4: jihadi extremist, Islamist organization, military organization that openly declares that

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Speaker 4: its goal is not only the extermination of the straight

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Speaker 4: state of Israel, but murdering of all the Jews around

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Speaker 4: the world. It's in their founding document online. And you

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Speaker 4: just declare a ceasefire after many many seaspries that Kmas

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Speaker 4: violated and has the Islamic Jihad on its side. These

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Speaker 4: are organizations, terrorist organizations, are a part of the global

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Speaker 4: Islamist militant network, including al Qaeda, including ISIS, and many

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Speaker 4: other organizations like that murdered Americans by thousand or nine

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Speaker 4: to eleven, that keep killing people all over the world.

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Speaker 4: And now Israel is releasing more of their fighters expecting

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Speaker 4: what expecting a miracle that these people will convert and

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Speaker 4: will be pacifists all of a sudden. Unfortunately, there will

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Speaker 4: not be and this will just extend the warfare. After that,

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Speaker 4: it is necessary to bring forces to Gaza that can

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Speaker 4: restore peace, and leaving Hamas in place defeats that goal.

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Speaker 2: Ariel, thank you so much for sharing your perspective. Doctor

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Speaker 2: Ariel Coney, a senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center,

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Speaker 2: Joining us here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back

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Speaker 2: to the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Podcast. Let's focus now on

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Speaker 2: the US, where retail inflation cooled in the month of December.

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Speaker 2: Core CPI, which gludes food and energy cost increased by

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Speaker 2: two tenths of one percent. Now that reading was below

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Speaker 2: forecast it and it triggered a rally in both stocks

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Speaker 2: and bonds, data compiled by Bloomberg Show. Today's combined market

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Speaker 2: reaction was the best upday for a CPI release since

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Speaker 2: October twenty twenty three. Joining me now for a closer

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Speaker 2: look is Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at BAIRED Private Wealth Management,

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Speaker 2: joining from Louisville, Kentucky. Ross, thanks for being with us.

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Speaker 2: One of the things that I was struck by is

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Speaker 2: how aggressively the market began betting that we're going to

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Speaker 2: get a FED rate cut sooner rather than later. What's

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Speaker 2: your expectation here?

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Speaker 5: I tend to agree with you. You know, there is a

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Speaker 5: lot to like in the CPI print, but it didn't

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Speaker 5: I wouldn't have expected on first glance that it would

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Speaker 5: catalyze such a strong dam and the equity markets. I

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Speaker 5: think that probably this was more the fact that maybe

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Speaker 5: markets had moved too far in the other way pricing

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Speaker 5: out FED rate cuts, worried about the move higher in

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Speaker 5: long term yields. You know, I think the FED is

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Speaker 5: still in cutting mode. One to two this year probably

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Speaker 5: makes sense. And I think that you know, now we

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Speaker 5: can see in the FEDO in futures that were back

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Speaker 5: to about expectations for two cuts. So I think this

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Speaker 5: was more about getting back to level from an over

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Speaker 5: correction and less about the actual report, although it was,

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Speaker 5: you know, quite good for folks concerned about a second

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Speaker 5: wave of inflation.

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Speaker 2: In terms of equity market to price action. We had

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Speaker 2: a rally. A lot of that had to do with

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Speaker 2: what we heard from some of the big banks. We

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Speaker 2: had JP Morgan, Goldman, City Group in Wells Fargo all

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Speaker 2: reporting their second most profitable year ever in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Do you like the financials.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I mean that's it.

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Speaker 5: Those are great reports and a great market reaction, and

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Speaker 5: that's really before you know, any of the potential benefits

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Speaker 5: from this new administration hit that sector. And to me,

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Speaker 5: that is one of the cleanest sector plays on the

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Speaker 5: new administration.

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Speaker 1: I mean, energy is.

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Speaker 5: Tricky because obviously they're pro energy, but you know, if

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Speaker 5: they drill too much, an oil prices fall, that hurts profitability.

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Speaker 5: You know, other sectors there's push and pull around tariffs.

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Speaker 5: Financials are a pretty clean story about deregulation, ramping up

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Speaker 5: in animal spirits, whether it's M and A IPO activity,

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Speaker 5: and pretty insulated from you know, either geopolitical conflict or tariffs,

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Speaker 5: you know, trades. So it's a clean story. They're already

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Speaker 5: performing very well. They've got a lot of momentum behind them,

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Speaker 5: so I think for twenty twenty five, it's a great

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Speaker 5: place to be.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that maybe doesn't get discussed enough is

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Speaker 2: the adoption of some very sophisticated technologies where the banks

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Speaker 2: and the financials are concerned. We had a story here

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Speaker 2: on the Bloomberg terminal a couple of weeks ago talking

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Speaker 2: about a staggering number of jobs in financial services that

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Speaker 2: that could be eliminated with the adoption of artificial intelligence.

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Speaker 2: So if you can help make the turn here away

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Speaker 2: from banking to tech. Is AI a trade that you like?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think you have to. I mean it's hard

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Speaker 5: to be anti AI at this point. I mean the

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Speaker 5: market will just you know, trample you if if you

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Speaker 5: don't have some exposure to that secular theme. But I

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Speaker 5: do think obviously you can see it, whether it's the

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Speaker 5: hyperscalers and the amount they're spending or in video which

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Speaker 5: keeps just you know, crushing expectations quarter after quarter. I

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Speaker 5: think the banks are actually, you know, to your point,

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Speaker 5: a great example of what I think we'll need to

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Speaker 5: see in twenty twenty five, which is past the chips,

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Speaker 5: past the buildout of data centers. What are the applications

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Speaker 5: for non technology and consumer technology companies that actually bring

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Speaker 5: about the productivity enhancements that have been promised, certainly in

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Speaker 5: the financials. I mean I work in the industry. I

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Speaker 5: know that there is a lot of redundant you know,

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Speaker 5: modeling and kind of busy work is the wrong way

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Speaker 5: to put it, but things that might be exposed to

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Speaker 5: some AI help and so to the extent that you're

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Speaker 5: hearing about, you know, JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs reaping

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Speaker 5: a lot of benefits from that. I think we'll need

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Speaker 5: to start seeing that in other sectors as well, in

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Speaker 5: retailers and utilities to justify the massive amount that's being

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Speaker 5: spent to stand up you know, the AI technology.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you mentioned the utility play because power

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Speaker 2: is often discussed when you talk about the construction of

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Speaker 2: those data centers. Are the power producers a place that

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Speaker 2: you want to have exposure to right now? Or is

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Speaker 2: that horse already left the barn, so to speak?

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Speaker 1: No, I don't think so.

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Speaker 5: I think there's still opportunity there. I mean, I think

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Speaker 5: in a lot of the second derivative plays still have

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Speaker 5: plenty of room to run. So utility, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 5: the incredible need for power again just to stand up

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Speaker 5: the data centers and all that it takes to run

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Speaker 5: these AI models is pretty overwhelming. You know. You think

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Speaker 5: about things like, all right, we build all these data centers,

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Speaker 5: and then the companies that provide the cooling and the

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Speaker 5: data center management. There are a lot of tangential plays

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Speaker 5: that can benefit from a theme this large and this overwhelming.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, so utilities are.

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Speaker 5: They're obviously up against it a bit with the moving

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Speaker 5: yields because there's such a yield proxy for a lot

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Speaker 5: of equity investors, But by and large, I think they

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Speaker 5: offer an exposure to AI and really for utilities, they

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Speaker 5: don't get a lot of chances to be a growth stock.

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Speaker 5: I think they're going to be able to capitalize on

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Speaker 5: that over the next couple of years, especially if we

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Speaker 5: do get a little bit more moderation on the rate front.

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Speaker 2: Ye know, evaluation is one of the concerns that many

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Speaker 2: investors have when they look at kind of risk assets

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Speaker 2: in the US versus things that may be offshore, And

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Speaker 2: I'm wondering whether or not you would be somewhat in

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Speaker 2: that camp and looking to diversify a little bit away

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Speaker 2: from the US into markets where valuations may be a

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Speaker 2: little bit more attractive.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great question.

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Speaker 5: It's one that our clients have brought to us more

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Speaker 5: and more is whether international diversification still makes sense, whether

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Speaker 5: they still need to do it. I tend to be

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Speaker 5: a little old school and be in the camp that

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Speaker 5: I do still think some international diversification makes sense.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you have.

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Speaker 5: To go back all that far to the two thousands

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Speaker 5: to see you a lost decade in the US stocks

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Speaker 5: where international really outperformed and added a lot to a

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Speaker 5: diversified portfolio.

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Speaker 1: So I think some exposure there still makes sense.

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Speaker 5: But I would also say that a lot of the

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Speaker 5: valuation difference boils down to a sector difference. Right, US

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Speaker 5: has a lot more tech, a lot more consumer tech,

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Speaker 5: which you pay up for on multiple front, whereas you

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Speaker 5: know across the Atlantic, for instance, there's a lot more energy,

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Speaker 5: there's a lot more staples which demand lower valuation. So

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Speaker 5: once you put it on a sector neutral basis, the

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Speaker 5: valuation gap narrows. And then once you look at just

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Speaker 5: the fact that US company earnings have been so much

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Speaker 5: more robust and consistent than you know, European and other

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Speaker 5: developed market earnings over the past five to ten years,

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Speaker 5: I think that does a lot more to bring the

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Speaker 5: valuation gap together. So I see the case for international diversification.

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Speaker 5: I don't necessarily know that the valuation is the primary basis,

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Speaker 5: at least in my mind.

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Speaker 2: One of the things I think we can agree on, though,

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Speaker 2: is many of those jurisdictions are exposed to potential tariffs

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Speaker 2: from the US. How do you understand the tariff risk

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Speaker 2: right now?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, I mean this is the number one question, right

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Speaker 5: I think, first and foremost tariffs are going to be

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Speaker 5: leveled against China. I mean, there are already a lot

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Speaker 5: in place. The Biden administration didn't remove all that much,

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Speaker 5: if any, from the ones that the original Trump administration

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Speaker 5: put in place, but they will get additional tariffs. I

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Speaker 5: think the real question now is whether the threat of

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Speaker 5: a universal tariff, for a global tariff is real or

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Speaker 5: whether it's a negotiating tactic. I think a universal tariff

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Speaker 5: would be something that the market that would cause the

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Speaker 5: market to take it on the chin a little bit,

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Speaker 5: So we'll keep an eye on that. I think there

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Speaker 5: are voices in the room that understand the risk, what

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Speaker 5: that would do to global economic activity, and the implications.

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Speaker 1: I would also add, though, as far as.

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Speaker 5: The inflation risk from tariffs, one of the things that

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Speaker 5: we've been talking about with our clients a lot is

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Speaker 5: to look to the first Trump administration and look at

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Speaker 5: what inflation was like from twenty seventeen to twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 5: Because it was anchored at two percent, it didn't really

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Speaker 5: move around. And that's despite the fact that immigration, tax reform,

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Speaker 5: and tariffs were the three main pillars then, just as

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Speaker 5: they are now. There may be different ways they get implemented.

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Speaker 5: They may be a little more extreme today. But inflation

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Speaker 5: was quite anchored the first Trump term until COVID kind

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Speaker 5: of broke the economy. So I do think that the

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Speaker 5: concerns of an inflationary spiral might be a little bit misplaced.

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Speaker 2: Here, all right, we'll leave it there. Ross, always a pleasure.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for making time to chat with us. Ross Mayfield there.

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Speaker 2: He is the investment strategist at Baired Private Wealth Management.

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Speaker 2: Joining from Louisville, Kentucky here on the Daybreak Asia podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak

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Speaker 2: Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story

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Speaker 2: shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You

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00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 2: can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast Tube channel,

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00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for

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Speaker 2: insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore

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Speaker 2: and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner and this is Bloomberg