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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcasts podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Spreading the corn. Ten seconds of matings. It's gonna just

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Speaker 1: go throwing under the basket, under the basket, it's the

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Speaker 1: croup for the wind God.

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Speaker 2: Big a miracle.

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Speaker 3: Up the water.

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Speaker 2: Hit that one from the parking lot. Welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus Podcast, presented by Bett MGM. I

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Speaker 2: am your host on this fine Wednesday show, Jim Root,

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Speaker 2: joined as always on Wednesdays by the rest of the

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Speaker 2: three man Weave crew, Ki McEwan and Matt Cox. Each

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Speaker 2: week we are dropping a new Big Bets on Campus

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Speaker 2: episode talking all things betting in the world of college basketball.

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Speaker 2: Today's episode, you get your standard fare served up, a

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Speaker 2: dish of live Dogs of the Week, Power Games of

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Speaker 2: the Week, Mid Major Games of the Week, a trash

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Speaker 2: Man Pick of the Week, Blowout City, and we close

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Speaker 2: with the spotlight section. Fellas I put it on the

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Speaker 2: March Madness props that are up out there a couple

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Speaker 2: of different books we will we'll zoom in on those,

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Speaker 2: take a look at them, see if we find any

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Speaker 2: value on one seed's teams to make the tournament subject

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Speaker 2: to change, of course, because we're recording on a Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: and this will come out on a Wednesday. Who knows

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Speaker 2: what will happen overnight to change the odds, But we'll

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Speaker 2: give you kind of rangers of what we think on

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Speaker 2: that that will come at the end of the show.

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Speaker 2: But without further ado, let's get into our first segment,

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Speaker 2: which is the live dog of the week.

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Speaker 3: Where's mine? Where as mine?

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Speaker 2: Hellas, we were very close to having a great week

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Speaker 2: last week. Looking back at it, Matthew, thank you very

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Speaker 2: much for your big FIU win over Liberty my panthers.

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Speaker 3: They're in dangered diwger you guys bet us to protect

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Speaker 3: the panther. Protect the panthers of Florida mantra right now,

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Speaker 3: so i'dhre to it all the way through.

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Speaker 2: Good good lad Utsa, who we were all very interested

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Speaker 2: in taking on South Florida very nearly one covered did

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Speaker 2: not quite get there though on the outright money line,

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Speaker 2: and Furman also blew a five point lead in the

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Speaker 2: final minutes against Sanford, losing heartbreaking fashion there Kyle lay

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Speaker 2: up right close to the buzzer. Heartbreaking stuff there for

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Speaker 2: those two and then Manmaus, Charlotte and Marshall got destroyed

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Speaker 2: so not it was great not great reads on those.

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Speaker 2: I believe we all had one of those three disgusting wagers,

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Speaker 2: so apologies for that group, but hey, hopefully we will

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Speaker 2: find some winners in this week section. Guys, we got

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Speaker 2: a six pack I put together here for Wednesday and Thursday.

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Speaker 2: We'll give a quick overview of them and see what

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Speaker 2: you're most interested in. On Wednesday, Southern Illinois plus seven

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Speaker 2: at Bradley the only plus seven hosting Alabama, and then

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Speaker 2: I talked about it on last week's pod. Guys. The

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Speaker 2: James Madison fade of with Marshall did not work out,

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Speaker 2: but James Madison now heading to Georgia State. Plus eight

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Speaker 2: are the Panthers and that one Matthew. Hopefully I can

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Speaker 2: get you to ride with the Panthers again.

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Speaker 1: Different Panthers, I'm sorry, Teiz.

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Speaker 2: Thursday, UCLA plus six at Washington, Northern Colorado plus seven

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Speaker 2: at Weaver State. It's Tonybrook plus nine at Drexel. Okay, Kai,

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Speaker 2: it's time to go through these and decide if we

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Speaker 2: actually want to wager on any of them. Did any

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Speaker 2: of this batch jump out at you? I'll leave the

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Speaker 2: floor open to you.

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Speaker 3: I'm going with old Mississippi on Wednesday, Jim, and I'm

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Speaker 3: going with UCLA on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Ole Miss clearly needs this win to make the Installer Tournament,

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Speaker 3: if they even want to get close to it. They

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Speaker 3: are on the outside looking in of the bubble her

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Speaker 3: this moment, her bracket matrix. I think they can get

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Speaker 3: it done. Obviously, Alabama is a different team on the

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Speaker 3: road than they are at home. We've seen that countless

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Speaker 3: times this season, even recent examples with their lossa Kentucky

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Speaker 3: where they gave up a whopping one hundred and seventeen

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Speaker 3: points Ole Miss.

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Speaker 1: Obviously, Chris Beard great coach.

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Speaker 3: I think you'll have something in store for that game,

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Speaker 3: So do like them on the money line. And then

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Speaker 3: u CLA. The Bruins trending up. I think they're around

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Speaker 3: twenty fifth in the country since the past month or

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Speaker 3: so per Bart Torvik. Yeah, big coaching edge. Mc cronin

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Speaker 3: over Mike Hopkins. Washington kind of feels like they're drawing

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Speaker 3: dead at this point. So like UCLA there, Matt, not

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Speaker 3: sure we're gonna get plus six, but we'll see where

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Speaker 3: it falls. Like them to win out right there. Mick

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Speaker 3: Cronin with an all time presser after that USC game.

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Speaker 3: I mean like he came in and just had every

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Speaker 3: rant teed up on a script and not one reporter

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Speaker 3: kind of question. Sounds like this guy is falling in Westwood.

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Speaker 3: Not gonna buy it. I'm gonna bet bigger on a

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Speaker 3: bounce back. I think UCLA has got a good chance

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Speaker 3: to win that game. Just a big coaching mismatch there.

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Speaker 3: I love Stonybrook, Jim Grant education here. Wow, had Drexell's

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Speaker 3: that big win at Delaware. They've been a little bit

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Speaker 3: skittish lately after that kind of really tourd run that

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Speaker 3: they went through, and they made every shot they took.

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Speaker 3: It's a sandwichie spot. They played Monday, they played Saturday

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Speaker 3: at holding a Northeastern. He's playing much better and so

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Speaker 3: this is sort of a weird stuff in the middle

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Speaker 3: type situation.

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Speaker 1: And Sony Buck's been really good, like quietly rocks Oluid.

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Speaker 3: I think I've blown out a couple times by the

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Speaker 3: big bad beast of that league. Charleston think got them

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Speaker 3: pretty badly, but they've been like competitive and taking care

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Speaker 3: of business against bad teams in that league consistently.

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Speaker 2: Kwil.

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Speaker 3: I just think they're a team undervalued in kembomb somehow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they got that rest advantage. Like you said, Trackswell

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Speaker 2: played on Monday, a tough, tough road win at Delaware,

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Speaker 2: and then Sony Brook was off, So a little bit

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Speaker 2: of an edge in that sense. Matt, I'm going at

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Speaker 2: you on my Georgia State Panthers. You were willing to

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Speaker 2: fade James Madison last week with Marshall. Are you just

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Speaker 2: skittish because of the way that one played out or

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Speaker 2: is it specifically a Georgia State not your Panthers kind

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Speaker 2: of thing.

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Speaker 1: No, my Panthers.

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Speaker 3: I think this team stinks, I really do. I know

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Speaker 3: they're better than last year, but I think their start

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Speaker 3: to conference play was a little bit propped up by

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Speaker 3: favorable schedule At the time. I think Marshall was winning

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Speaker 3: I think a half in most of that game, and

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Speaker 3: then they blew it late and blew the cover late,

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Speaker 3: so it's actually more competitive.

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Speaker 1: I like the.

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Speaker 3: Angle sticking to the fade. Gmu on this really tough

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Speaker 3: roady to close out Sunbelt. I'm just gonna wait till

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Speaker 3: a coastal spot two days later, Jimbo. They got Wednesday

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Speaker 3: night at Georgia State and then Coastal two nights later.

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Speaker 1: Marshall was never competitive. Twenty yeah, twelve they have. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: I'm taking a state Apstate. Sorry, there's a Saturday.

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Speaker 3: This is a week we're the MIDWEK guys, that's the

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Speaker 3: WEEKND guys, yet all confused?

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Speaker 2: No, you mentioned the start of Georgia State's conference play

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Speaker 2: being a syentem of schedule. This is why I'm betting it.

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Speaker 2: It's a third straight road game for James Madison of

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Speaker 2: four to close the year. They've got to keep pace

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Speaker 2: with Appalachian State. They are in the at large mix slightly.

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Speaker 2: I would say it's pretty unlikely they get there, but

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Speaker 2: I just think it's a tough spot form Georgia State

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Speaker 2: at least doesn't turn the ball over, which is massive

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Speaker 2: against James Madison. Got to be able to take care

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Speaker 2: of the ball. They're gonna run out on you the

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Speaker 2: other way. I kind of buy it. So Georgia State

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Speaker 2: is part of my actual selections here the Southern Illinois

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Speaker 2: Bradley won. It is a tough spot for Bradley coming

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Speaker 2: off a war of a rivalry game against Illinois State.

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Speaker 2: They won by three and a five, forty eight to

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Speaker 2: forty five cement mixer of a game and then coming

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Speaker 2: up Bradley's got the big one at Drake on the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Is there a chance they overlook Siu, who has the

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Speaker 2: nation's leading scorer or one of the top scores in

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Speaker 2: the entire country in Abra Johnson may be worth a

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Speaker 2: look there, Kay, you didn't sound interested in that one.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to lock it in, but perhaps the

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Speaker 2: people out there just not feeling it.

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Speaker 1: Bradley at home, man, they're really good.

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Speaker 3: I know they're kind of in the mix here, but

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Speaker 3: we're swimming a bit, like you said, but I don't

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Speaker 3: like fade them at home. Every big capable of bouncing

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Speaker 3: back and covering this game, Jim.

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Speaker 1: I liked it. I almost took it with you. I'll

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Speaker 1: be honest. I like at your angle here. I think

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Speaker 1: Bradley's kind of been lately.

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Speaker 2: Just yeah, it's just I think is fair. Not not

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Speaker 2: like tanking or you know, circling a drain, but just

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Speaker 2: not quite as strong as they were at one point

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Speaker 2: Connor Hickman returned and they just reeled off a bunch

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Speaker 2: of wins and covers in a row. Correct the last

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Speaker 2: one I mentioned that we didn't get to talk about

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Speaker 2: Northern Colorado plus seven at Weaver State. We were just

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Speaker 2: not been as strong in league play as I had

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Speaker 2: hoped from them, even lately, not trending all the way

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Speaker 2: back up to where they could have been. Northern Colorado

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Speaker 2: is still not really in the mix for the Big

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Speaker 2: Sky title, but there are two games back. With two

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Speaker 2: to play, we'll talk about Eastern Washington in the mid

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Speaker 2: major games of the week. I've just been so impressed

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Speaker 2: with Northern Colorado's offense all year, and Weaver State so

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Speaker 2: reliant on one guy. I'm gonna go with Northern Colorado

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Speaker 2: going into the d Matt a very difficult place to play,

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Speaker 2: as we know at Weaver. But I have a four

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Speaker 2: pack here, guys, going with ole Miss Georgia State on Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: and then UCLA and Northern Colorado on Thursday, So four

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Speaker 2: for me. Were there any that jumped out at you

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Speaker 2: guys that I did not mention here as part of

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Speaker 2: my sixsome Kai or Matt, anything you.

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Speaker 3: Got, I have nothing to addem. I'm sticking with ole

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Speaker 3: Miss and Ucla as my two for the week.

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Speaker 2: Matt, you bring anything like FIU to the table. You

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Speaker 2: had a nice winner last week here outside of.

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Speaker 3: The normal election there's so interesting that conference USA spintersing

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Speaker 3: games right Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech and.

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Speaker 1: Potentially tough spots.

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Speaker 3: The whack had some weird ones too, Charleton going to

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Speaker 3: Utah Tech, who's been playing better. I have that one circle,

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Speaker 3: but not going to fade my Texas so nothing. I

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Speaker 3: like your sample, and I'm going stony and old miss

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Speaker 3: officially just to two for good.

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Speaker 2: All right, there you have it. That is live Dog

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Speaker 2: of the week. Now we move on to blow out City.

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Speaker 2: Did okay in this section last week Marquet obliterated to Paul.

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Speaker 2: I think fading to Paul is probably a beneficial strategy

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Speaker 2: pretty much all year and the rest of the year.

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Speaker 2: And you will see them.

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Speaker 3: Because actually done it. I haven't actually done it. I've

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Speaker 3: just told people to do it, but I haven't done

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Speaker 3: it myself.

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Speaker 2: I've done it a little, maybe not just as big

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Speaker 2: as I should have.

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Speaker 1: Paul.

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Speaker 2: I should have been getting more on it, Matthew, I

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Speaker 2: think would be right. A distermination here in Gonzaga a

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Speaker 2: tricky one. The spread at Ken Palm when we recorded

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Speaker 2: it was twenty. The closing spread was twenty two and

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Speaker 2: a half. Gonzagu won by twenty one, so I can't

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Speaker 2: even give partial credit because I don't think it was

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Speaker 2: ever twenty in the market. So we apologize. But at

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Speaker 2: this point, when recording over at day in advance, we

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Speaker 2: can only work with what mister palmer Roy offers. So

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Speaker 2: Kenzaga kind of not great. Two candidates here really three.

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Speaker 2: I added a third late to Paul Matt. We're just

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Speaker 2: going to continue fading them. They had the Xavier. Xavier

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Speaker 2: won by twenty five at DePaul quincye OLIVERI had forty

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Speaker 2: three to Paul getting twenty one. Would imagine the market

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Speaker 2: puts it up to twenty two to twenty three. Here

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Speaker 2: De Paul just missed their last real chance to win

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Speaker 2: a game, hosting Georgetown over the weekend, the ugly game

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Speaker 2: of the year.

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Speaker 1: LA just missed it. It was just like that was it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think the season greater is beyond what it is

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Speaker 1: at this point.

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Speaker 2: That's why it feels like, you know, Xavier not really

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Speaker 2: in the large discussion, but style points could matter. I

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Speaker 2: could see them just winning by forty here. I agree.

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Speaker 3: I like the over as a hedge because De Paul

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Speaker 3: has shown some garbage scoring ability, like when the teams

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Speaker 3: are up thirty. So yeah, I think I might play

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Speaker 3: this once ball, but then add some over on the

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Speaker 3: side in case you know, Xavier just stops trying when

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Speaker 3: they're up thirty or something.

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Speaker 2: Kay, what about you on that game that or I

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Speaker 2: can even set you up for the other Wednesday night game.

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Speaker 3: No, I like Xavier as well. So twenty one for Kimpum.

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Speaker 3: Like you said, Paul's lost eleven games in the Big

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Speaker 3: East by over twenty points this season in sixteen games.

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Speaker 3: That's insane. So at this point they're expected to lose

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Speaker 3: by at least twenty. Yeah, I think they have no chance.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Maddie, any first half fade to Paul to you

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Speaker 2: considering that late garbage time serge stuff or no.

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Speaker 3: I'm owing to doing that this Big Et season. So

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Speaker 3: I don't know if it's first half or second half.

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Speaker 3: I feel like they're also just likes to quit all

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Speaker 3: together in the second half. I've been I got too

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Speaker 3: cute at that angle, I like you're putting down.

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Speaker 1: I just I haven't had any reads on.

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Speaker 2: That one, Okay, I mean, I just betting against the

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Speaker 2: Paul in many fashions.

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Speaker 3: To be nice, If Matt Brady would tell us, when

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Speaker 3: are you going to fold early or late. I'd like

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Speaker 3: some transparency and as postgame prescot, we have not gotten

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Speaker 3: that from introm mister Brady.

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Speaker 2: Right the other one, Wednesday night, I circled VM I

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Speaker 2: headed to UNC Greensboro. The poor short handed key Debts

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Speaker 2: are really young and not loaded with a bunch of

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Speaker 2: scoring talent, especially with Brennan Watkins out right now he

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Speaker 2: had twenty one in the first meeting when VMI actually

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Speaker 2: gave WCu kind of a scare, only lost by six kain.

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Speaker 2: Now this one is at Greensboro, Watkins likely continuing to

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Speaker 2: be out and not providing the twenty points he had

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Speaker 2: in that one. Does Greenborough roll the Spartans here at home?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely lean their way. We're the VM. I was

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Speaker 3: able to keep that one so close. I know it

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Speaker 3: made no sense the first twenty three for twenty six

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Speaker 3: and the free throw line that they got down twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five points, so it wasn't competitive. Maybe you and

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Speaker 3: CG just kind of let off the gas a little bit,

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Speaker 3: couldn't really finish inside. I think they do kind of

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Speaker 3: reverse it here and get it done. So Wood lean

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Speaker 3: towards Greensboro getting the blowout win.

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Speaker 2: Strange thing I do this with VMI games is the

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Speaker 2: first ten minutes have a ton of points, and then

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Speaker 2: like they go on a drought until the under four timelime.

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Speaker 2: It's really weird. It's like almost every game it's like, Oh,

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Speaker 2: they have fifty points in the first ten and then

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Speaker 2: there's only seventy two at half time. What the hell happened?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they're playing at a sea seventy five average possession

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Speaker 3: last five games sixty three, sixty two to fifty one,

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Speaker 3: sixty nine to fifty one points scored, So you're just

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Speaker 3: not get a lot of offensive jump from the pace

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Speaker 3: that they're playing at.

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Speaker 2: Period. No, No, Watkins is like a real problem. He

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Speaker 2: hits a ton of shots. He's kind of an adult

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Speaker 2: in the room with a bunch of young guards on

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Speaker 2: the floor. It's not having him. It's just kind of

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Speaker 2: derailed any sort of strong handicap angle with VMI. Totals

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Speaker 2: last one Matt Simo at Morehead State on Thursday Night. Simo,

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Speaker 2: we kept waiting them for them to right the ship.

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Speaker 2: Early in the year. They couldn't get things figured out.

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Speaker 2: They had a lot of turnover from the team that

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Speaker 2: made the NCAA Tournament last year. But I think we

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Speaker 2: just are finally resigned to the fact that the offense sucks.

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Speaker 2: Morehead one by nineteen at Simo in the first meeting. Now,

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Speaker 2: of course, more had a team we wanted to back

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Speaker 2: all through OVC play. They had a three game losing

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Speaker 2: streak that really didn't make a lot of sense to us.

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Speaker 2: But perhaps they're righty the ship blowing out Western Illinois

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Speaker 2: Simo's offense not good again, is this a potential blowout

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Speaker 2: candidate here Matt with Morehead State link twenty per Ken Pump.

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Speaker 1: It's weird.

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Speaker 3: They blew out Westerrollinois in a fourth game in seven

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Speaker 3: day spot. Arguably a good spot as you just lost

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Speaker 3: three in a row and you're a really good team,

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Speaker 3: but still tough schedule spot. Now they get a whole

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Speaker 3: week off to kind of exhale. I guess, so it

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Speaker 3: could be a sleepy spot or just they're awesome and

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Speaker 3: maybe in every team by fifteen loss in this league

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Speaker 3: and Semo's at the bottom of that barrel and brad

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Speaker 3: Korn might be doing the old Ropodope Conference tournament surge

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Speaker 3: like he did last year. Theory, Yeah, I think More

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Speaker 3: kills them. Definitely think they write the ship here, semo's

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Speaker 3: really bad. Moreheads class of the league despite the fact

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Speaker 3: that they're going to tie for first place right now,

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Speaker 3: they had a weird three game losing streak there. I

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Speaker 3: think they're right in the ship.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't think bradcorn can roped Upe this team.

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Speaker 2: It's just not talented enough.

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Speaker 1: So it's a SEAMO level talent group.

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Speaker 3: Unlike the TML Lashchroch has guys now playing at ut Arlington.

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Speaker 2: Chris Harris is probably wors especially in Europe. I would imagine,

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Speaker 2: oh and now too. Yeah, I don't think anyone in

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00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,480
Speaker 2: this team is getting professional buckets.

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Speaker 1: No, unfortunately, sorry Rob Martin.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, still definitely think Morehead State continues that going to

337
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Speaker 2: stick with them and blow out City laying points on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: All right, next up is the power Game of the week.

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00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,160
Speaker 2: But before we get there, and we'll check in from

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Speaker 2: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, the

348
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,840
Speaker 2: power game of the week fellas. There's a clear number

349
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Speaker 2: one candidate here. I struggled to find a two and

350
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Speaker 2: a three worth even talking about. But the big, big

351
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Speaker 2: matchup of this week is in the SEC Auburn headed

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Speaker 2: on the road to Tennessee, oh I could chill for

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Speaker 2: Ken palm a three point spread for the balls, essentially

354
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Speaker 2: telling you these teams are equal, big big one for

355
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Speaker 2: the title race here Kai in the SEC. This is

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Speaker 2: the first and only meeting between these two this year.

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Speaker 2: Booz schedule makers on balanced schedules. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 2: here on the balls at home Thompson Bowling Arena with

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Speaker 2: Bruce Pearl and the boys coming to town.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, give me the balls, Jim. Kind of like Alabama,

361
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,760
Speaker 3: but maybe to a more extreme degree. Auburn not great

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Speaker 3: on the road this season. They are four and four

363
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Speaker 3: against the spread, but still a team that I fear

364
00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,000
Speaker 3: a lot less away from the jungle and in Tennessee

365
00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,680
Speaker 3: is certainly a team that can beat anybody in the country.

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00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,720
Speaker 3: They handle the ball. That's very key against Auburn's defense

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00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,120
Speaker 3: that tends to force you over. Tennessee in fact the

368
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,600
Speaker 3: best ball handling team in the SEC right now. They

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Speaker 3: have the offense this year to carry them further than

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Speaker 3: they have been with Brick Barnes in the past in

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Speaker 3: the NCAA tournament. And I think they have the juice

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Speaker 3: to win the conference here. So if they win this game,

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Speaker 3: they basically win the SEC, barring any any crazy late

374
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Speaker 3: season swoons. But I do like the balls here, Matt

375
00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:49,840
Speaker 3: relatively short spread at three. We'll see if it actually

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Speaker 3: is three come market time. It will not be three

377
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 3: if it is on the wall three heavy, but it'll

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Speaker 3: be four or five.

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Speaker 1: I gotta thinkright.

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00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,280
Speaker 3: Jalen Williams will see how much his injury means as

381
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,640
Speaker 3: the games go forth. They took care of business at

382
00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:05,479
Speaker 3: Georgia last came, but it was kind of competitive late

383
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Speaker 3: in the second half. Despite Georgia missing a ton of shots,

384
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Speaker 3: they still won by a ton because Georgia is the

385
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Speaker 3: worst transition defense I've ever seen. But anyway, Tennessee's different

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Speaker 3: animal right at home.

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Speaker 1: How good they've been. I just think you have to

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Speaker 1: trust that that angle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like, okay, they lost it home to South Carolina,

390
00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:24,040
Speaker 2: but that's a team with a totally different DNA to Auburn.

391
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:28,560
Speaker 2: So let's not let you run. Let's slow it down,

392
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,400
Speaker 2: keep this in a half court crawl, invert the floor.

393
00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:34,639
Speaker 2: Pulled jonas Ado away from the rim. I know Broom

394
00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 2: has shot some threes this year for Auburn, but I

395
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Speaker 2: don't fully trust him to do that. With pulling ad

396
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Speaker 2: away from the rim and the transition factor. If you

397
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Speaker 2: let this Tennessee team run, they're going to score like

398
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:46,639
Speaker 2: crazy on you. Connect is such a weapon in the

399
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:51,280
Speaker 2: open floor. Their guards are strong, Ziegler is speed demon.

400
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,080
Speaker 2: He has really trended up as the season has gone on,

401
00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,240
Speaker 2: as his knee has gotten healthier from that ACL tear

402
00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 2: last year. I'm fully on board with you guys, balls

403
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,120
Speaker 2: even honestly, even if it is up to five. Yeah,

404
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,760
Speaker 2: the balls. I think I would too, although the injury

405
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,320
Speaker 2: could make it even higher. The Jalen Williams injury you mentioned,

406
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 2: Matt That is a crucial one, all right. The other

407
00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:14,240
Speaker 2: two I pulled from the Big East and maybe not

408
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,159
Speaker 2: like the absolute headliner matchups of the week, but a

409
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,680
Speaker 2: lot of implications to them. Matthew were starting with Saint

410
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,399
Speaker 2: John's and Butler, which I'm kind of calling a loser

411
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:27,360
Speaker 2: leads Town elimination bubble game. I mean, I guess it's

412
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Speaker 2: possible the loser of this game makes the NCA Tournament,

413
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,399
Speaker 2: but it is getting really really unlikely considering their quad

414
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,959
Speaker 2: one and two records and just kind of the schedule

415
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,719
Speaker 2: they've got remaining on the slate. So Butler minus one

416
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 2: at home, mister Thadmata against Ricky Patino, probably not wearing

417
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Speaker 2: his white suit again here. I feel like he goes

418
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,359
Speaker 2: with something different at Hinklefield House. Any strong take for

419
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 2: you in this game, mister Matthias.

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00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 3: No, this is a tough one about I don't know

421
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 3: how you have any condiction given how black and white

422
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 3: both these teams have played this year. Certainly Saint John's

423
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,360
Speaker 3: has made every airwave, but I mean, Butler lost four

424
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 3: in a row, five to six. Much better home before

425
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 3: that run, and you know they got killed by credit

426
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 3: at home. They've been mostly pretty competitive throughout the year.

427
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Speaker 3: It's just maybe they ran out of gas.

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00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 1: I don't know.

429
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,960
Speaker 3: I slightly into Saint John's, but obviously trusting that team

430
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 3: with confidence on the road is not a profitable investment

431
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 3: strategy in this season. Yeah, I'm going Johnny's here, Jim,

432
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,399
Speaker 3: I do think I hate it. This is a Q

433
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 3: one win for Saint John's. They get it against Butler,

434
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,960
Speaker 3: obviously huge there. Their net is getting a lot better.

435
00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 3: Their Quad one Quad two combined record isn't bad for

436
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 3: a bubble team, but the Q one record right now

437
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,200
Speaker 3: two and nine for Saint John's. They really do kind

438
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 3: of need this game to get over the hump. I

439
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 3: think Butler is basically done with a loss here. Hinkle

440
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,719
Speaker 3: great environment, a tough place to play usually when Butler

441
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 3: is good.

442
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 1: But I think.

443
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 3: Johnny's the Johnny's have figured it out that the white

444
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 3: suit of Rick Patino has brought this team back to

445
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 3: the living.

446
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 1: I think Johnny's get there.

447
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: Matt, Noah, Pasha, Alexander revenge against Patio angle here. I know. Yeah,

448
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 2: the second time they've played, and it's not at Saint John's,

449
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 2: but yeah, there is a little did he run him

450
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 2: on a town as their extra incentive. I'm gonna be honest,

451
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 2: I like that for Saint John's. If Ash Alexander's trying hard,

452
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 2: then yeah, he's he's gonna start messing up. He's been

453
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 2: a net negative by all on off measurements there and

454
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,919
Speaker 2: if he's pressing a little bit, just trying to make

455
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 2: things happen. Turnovers happened, that shots happened. Kyle, you've noted

456
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 2: that he's one of the worst like rim finishers. It

457
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 2: feels like watching him play, that's an issue. Saint John's

458
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 2: biggest issue is Patino dreamed about, is their lateral quickness

459
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 2: defending guys off the bounce, not really how Butler beats you.

460
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,439
Speaker 2: I'm not too scared of Pierre Brooks off the bounce.

461
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 2: DJ Davis solid but more of a shooter and posh. Again,

462
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 2: I'm okay with him trying to finish over size inside.

463
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,680
Speaker 2: So I think it's an okay matchup for Saint John's

464
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,120
Speaker 2: in the same way that Creighton has been an ok

465
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 2: matchup for them, where it's not guards that really beat

466
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 2: you off the bounce and get into the teeth of

467
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,920
Speaker 2: the defense. So Johnny's for me as well, clean sweet

468
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 2: for the boys there. Now on the other end of

469
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,120
Speaker 2: the spectrum, Marquette has guards that get to your defense

470
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 2: and make plays. Specifically, Tyler Kullich and the Golden Eagles

471
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 2: are hosting Providence on Wednesday night minus nine per Ken Poms,

472
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:10,879
Speaker 2: so a bigger spread than we took him to get

473
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 2: to in these power games of the week. But man,

474
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 2: kai Providence, we called him a cockroach all season long.

475
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 2: This team is a terrific underdog. They already beat this

476
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 2: Marquette team by fifteen at the amp or Sprice Hopkins

477
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 2: played in that game. Stevie Mitchell did not, so a

478
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 2: little bit of a personnel flip that favors the Golden

479
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 2: Eagles here. But man, do you really want to bet

480
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,119
Speaker 2: on anybody to blow out Providence at this stage? No?

481
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 3: I do not, Jim, I've done that before and hasn't

482
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 3: worked out. I would be shocked at Providence wins this game.

483
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 3: Would not be shocked. And keeping it close? Am I

484
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,439
Speaker 3: keeping it close? I mean they'll come back in the

485
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 3: last five minutes or so. This team has gotten down

486
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 3: in the second half pretty big in several Big East games.

487
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 3: They've just fought back. And that's Devin Carter. He is incredible.

488
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 3: If this team was a top three team, he might

489
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 3: be the biggest player of the year. He's been that good.

490
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 2: There's push for him to do it, even over Newton,

491
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 2: which is stunning to me.

492
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's no more valuable player to their team this

493
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 3: season than Devin Carter in the Big East. In my opinion,

494
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 3: they would be nothing without him. He's a game breaker.

495
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 3: They are a cockroach. They really are a scrappy team,

496
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 3: you know, credit to Kim. They do scrap and they

497
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 3: have a chip on their shoulder. That's the only Kim

498
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 3: English praise I'll give on this podcast. Yeah, I lean

499
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 3: to his providence there at nine. This is what Kem

500
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 3: Pom has it at right now. Yeah, you have to

501
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 3: get a week off. Marquette played Sunday too, so kind

502
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 3: of a quick turn around there. Yeah, I'm with you

503
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: as Providence as a dog feels like it's a continuation

504
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 3: of the Ed Cooley as a dog angle, just with

505
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 3: a new coach in his stead.

506
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm with Kai. I would go full game

507
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: here too, Like there's a chance markets up twelve at

508
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 2: a halftime and they look good, but Providence does not

509
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 2: go away no matter what they're down. They find ways

510
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 2: in those final seven minutes. Carter hits big shots. They're

511
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 2: scrappy on the glass, they defend. It's a team that

512
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,680
Speaker 2: really defends, and I think they get tough as nails

513
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 2: late in games. So I'm with these guys again. Providence,

514
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 2: super super feisty team down the stretch of games. All right,

515
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 2: mid Major game of the week, guys, We're going to

516
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,680
Speaker 2: go just with two on Thursday here, Big Ones in

517
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 2: the Summit slash Big Sky the Elevation Conferences, if you will.

518
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 2: Montana at Eastern Washington, the top two in the Big

519
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,719
Speaker 2: Sky Kai Eastern Washington can clinch the Big Sky title

520
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 2: with this one. They are at home in Cheney. I'm

521
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 2: going to just go to you first, because I know

522
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 2: Matt is willing to wax poetic about his boy David Riley. Ky,

523
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 2: do you think Eastern Washington runs away in heights in

524
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 2: this game?

525
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 1: I think they win it.

526
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 2: Yep.

527
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 3: I think they cover minus five. The class of the

528
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 3: league this year, and their offense is just awesome. Their

529
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,199
Speaker 3: defense actually tops in the Big Sky too, which is

530
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 3: a little more surprising. But that one three zone they

531
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: can roll out as certainly stymy opponents. Montana a team

532
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 3: that really relies on the three ball this season. In fact,

533
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 3: they score the highest percentage of their points from three

534
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 3: in the conference. That's kind of tough to do against

535
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 3: e WASH's defense. They do allow a high rate, but

536
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 3: they're very good at contesting and that goes for both

537
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 3: in the perimeter and inside in the so been impressed

538
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 3: by their defense. We know their offense rocks. They're the

539
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 3: best shooting team in the conference. Are just about when

540
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 3: you take them to the totality at the floor. I

541
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 3: like EU WASH here. They did win game one as well.

542
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 3: I'm at in Montana. Yeah, I love you Wash, and

543
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 3: I just don't really like I like Montana a lot

544
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 3: on paper. I just watched them. I don't quite get

545
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 3: the same warm and fuzzies. I mean, they were completely

546
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 3: out of sorts against Porland State's pressure. Probably should have

547
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 3: blown that game. Like just looked like they had no

548
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 3: idea what they were doing. I don't e WASH won't

549
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 3: really pressure you like Porland State can. I just think

550
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 3: they're just the better team, more complete team, the smarter team,

551
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 3: and e wash is only two losses recently. We were

552
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 3: in Nah just made big time shots and there's a

553
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 3: pretty big shot quality descrepancy in both those games. I

554
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 3: just think you WA Washes all the way legit, So

555
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 3: I'm gonna trust him here at home. When they lost there,

556
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 3: they got that first one. Maybe revenge angle for Montana,

557
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 3: but I'm not buying. I think Ewsher is better team.

558
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 3: They should be laying a touchdown.

559
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 2: It's a little like the Morehead State thing we were

560
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 2: talking about, where like the team that was dominant on

561
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: both ends of the floor, best team in the league

562
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 2: suddenly had this weird kind of lull and Weaver State, Okay,

563
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 2: they lost two the best player in the league, Dylan Jones.

564
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,159
Speaker 2: Northern Arizona a tough travel from Eastern Washington. Kind of

565
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 2: an odd gym there down at NAU, but they got

566
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 2: right at Northern Colorado, an offense we have already praised

567
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 2: on this podcast. So back home Eastern Washington against the

568
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 2: team that's reliant on jump shooting like Montana is. Yep,

569
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 2: I am making it three for three on the Eagles

570
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 2: at home against Montana. The other one's a little dice here, guys,

571
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 2: the Summit. I do not have a clue what direction

572
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,959
Speaker 2: I'm going with in this game. South Dakota State minus

573
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 2: one at North Dakota, two top teams in the league. Again,

574
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 2: Matt South Dakota State a game up, but they have

575
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 2: got a very difficult final schedule here at North Dakota

576
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 2: and at North Dakota State. So the Hawks very much

577
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 2: still alive for the Summit Championship. Do you think they

578
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 2: get the win here at home to bump themselves up

579
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 2: right into a tie for the league lead.

580
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 1: I'm taking the fine Hawks, I do. I think the

581
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 1: Novodacks get this one.

582
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: I saw this was reported as probably the biggest game

583
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 3: in North Dakota's like history, and they.

584
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 1: Haven't been d one all that long.

585
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 3: I know they've moved up I think around twenty ten

586
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 3: or something. I mean some bit fourteen fifteen years, but

587
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 3: still a relatively new D one team, and they're finally

588
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 3: like good and in the hunt for a Summon title.

589
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 3: And you have the big brother of the league coming

590
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 3: to town, who, by the way, is beatable this year,

591
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 3: like for the first time in a while. I know

592
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 3: that the jack Bunnies have that eight plus plus plus here,

593
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 3: but they're still super radic wh to what I watched

594
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 3: them play. They take some dump shots and their defenses

595
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,159
Speaker 3: a little dice, even though it should be awesome. I

596
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 3: like the note acts, man. I think they can They're

597
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 3: sneaky physical. I think it was a soft team we

598
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 3: thought coming to the year. But their big guy is

599
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 3: a beast on the boards, a colt chic, colchick.

600
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: I can't say his name. He's from He's from Iowa. Yeah,

601
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: he's guy, a Juco guy, absolutely dominant on the glass

602
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 1: in that league. So I like the note CKX Yeah.

603
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,360
Speaker 3: I like the Bunnies. Yeah, they won game one by nineteen.

604
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 3: I don't think North Dakota is as good as the

605
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 3: record says in the Summing League. I mean, kem pom

606
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 3: hasn't like middle of the pack. They've been a lot

607
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 3: better this year and they definitely have. Their continuity is

608
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 3: what has really been good for them, and that includes

609
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 3: bringing back Ianacho, a guy who won the the Summit

610
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 3: Player Freshman of the Year before transferring out of the program,

611
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 3: came back this season. Credit to them, they've definitely see

612
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 3: the expectations. I still think South Dakota State is the

613
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 3: class of the league. You know, North Kota Matt mentioned,

614
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 3: they do dominate the glass. Southakota State though, about the

615
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:17,959
Speaker 3: hardest team to dominate the glass against it in the conference.

616
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 3: They have a lot of size up front, They're a

617
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 3: good rebounding team, So I like the Bunnies here Jim

618
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 3: to finish off.

619
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 2: The conference fantastic. I will be the fence rider as

620
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: one of you each takes one side.

621
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 3: Kai.

622
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 2: That's an interesting note on North Dakota. They are second

623
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,439
Speaker 2: in the league nine to five, but they have the

624
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 2: fifth best offense and fifth best defense in a nine

625
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: team league.

626
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 1: Doesn't make a lot of sense.

627
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 2: They're incredibly middling. Yeah, when they lose, they've lost big

628
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 2: and a lot of tight wins. I sort of like

629
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 2: the spot with them at home, and I'm kind of

630
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 2: with Matt when I don't fully trust South Dakota State.

631
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 2: But the matchup notes matter quite a bit. The battling

632
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 2: on the glass. I think South Dakota State can negate

633
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 2: the edge there and it just have a hard time

634
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 2: trusting either team, so I will sit that one out.

635
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 3: I cannot wait for whatever team comes out of this

636
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 3: mess of a league this season to play Purdue or

637
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 3: Yukon or Houston or Arizona first route.

638
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: That's my betting points. That's all I care about.

639
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 3: Like, just forget the Connerence tournament, Like let them all

640
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 3: be each other up and then when they play an

641
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 3: actual team with actual physicality.

642
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: It's going to be ugly.

643
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,479
Speaker 2: Yeah. You go through the track record of even the

644
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 2: top teams and the non con and their record against

645
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 2: like actual good teams like North kcost State losing by

646
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 2: twenty nine to Creighton, North Dakota losing by thirty plus

647
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 2: to Iowa, et cetera.

648
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: Like, Bunnies had a couple of efforts, but.

649
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: Against true power conference competition.

650
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 3: They almost beat UCF, almost beat acron can St.

651
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 1: Yeah. Not great, but they've had a little bit more

652
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 1: Bunnies can rise a little bit. That's fair.

653
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 3: You're right, I should probably give Henderson Hendos some credit

654
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 3: for his ability to you know, still, man, I don't know,

655
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 3: get a bad say this.

656
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 1: This version doesn't excite me.

657
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 2: Yeah. They haven't played a top fifty team all season,

658
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 2: so I haven't quite seen that. So I'm kind of

659
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 2: with you, Matt the summit and uh, honestly, probably the

660
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 2: Big Sky winner too, I'll be faced.

661
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, sure, but they did struggle.

662
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: They did. They did against the gauntlet of a schedule.

663
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to trash man pick of the week.

664
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: The trash man pick of the week. I'm the trash man.

665
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 3: Just throw me the trash your garbage and you know it,

666
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 3: totally unreliable, undependable of it.

667
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 1: That's it.

668
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 3: You've been told off.

669
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 2: How do you like that? Good guys, I'm surprised we

670
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 2: haven't seen a lot of OVC in the section. We've

671
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 2: kind of been bullying the Patriot, throwing them around and

672
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 2: shoving them in a locker. But the OVC has been

673
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 2: a little bit of a down league as well. I'm

674
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 2: going with linden Wood at Southern Indiana. We are in

675
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 2: the final week of the season KAI and neither of

676
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 2: these teams is eligible for the NCAA tournament. Linden Wood

677
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 2: has already eliminated from the OVC tournament, so like they

678
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 2: are really almost done here, two games left Southern Indiana

679
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: and Stan Girard told me in the offseason about some

680
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: of his guys thinking about their next step before the

681
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 2: season ended last year. I don't know if there's risk

682
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 2: of that happening this year. This is just a really

683
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: tough spot to handicap with both teams kind of lacking

684
00:29:58,960 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 2: things to play for.

685
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, boy, Lindon's bad, worst offense and defense in the

686
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 3: OBC is really hard to do. I really think they

687
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 3: have a good player in Keenan Cole, But I guess

688
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 3: that's about it. And honestly, you look at the guys

689
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 3: that are rostered. They have a couple of names that

690
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 3: were in higher conferences, like Darius being Keith Ade. These

691
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 3: guys plainly coached. I really do think they might be

692
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 3: poorly coached. I don't think Southern Indiana is though. I

693
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 3: think Southern Niana has got a good coach and in Gerard.

694
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 3: Obviously they lack talent and that's why they've been struggling

695
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 3: this year. Ten points is a lot to lay for

696
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 3: Southern Indiana. I have They've been a double digit favorite

697
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 3: all season. I'm not sure. I'm not saying they can't

698
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 3: cover that, but that's pretty insane. I know they won

699
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 3: the first game by nine on the excuse me, eleven

700
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 3: on the road. I would lean towards the dog there,

701
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 3: just from a peer number perspective.

702
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 2: This feels stay away from me.

703
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm with Kai. It just feels too well,

704
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: too high.

705
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 3: But man, Lindon, would I just feel like they could

706
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 3: be feisty in that league, Like that's not a good league.

707
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 3: It's a league that a team that's well coached and

708
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 3: semi talented can at least compete in and they've been

709
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 3: not competitive. So kind of a bummer for our lions

710
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 3: of West Saint Louis. Can I call it the suburbs

711
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 3: of Saint Lois?

712
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 2: Yeah? On Charles, it's tough, man. If you are a

713
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 2: dead last in the country and assist straight with the

714
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 2: team that lacks one on one scores, I don't know

715
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 2: how that works. Like you should be moving the ball

716
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 2: more if you don't have guys that are terrific off

717
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 2: the bounce, and Lennwood mostly lacks that. So yeah, they've

718
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 2: been brutal this year. Two more games. Like I said,

719
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 2: this is the second last one of their entire season.

720
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 2: I'm staying away. I gotta sit that one out, all right.

721
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 2: I do have some stronger takes guys on the spotlight section.

722
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 2: Let's get to that March Madness props. KAI will start

723
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 2: with the one seed betting odds Perdue and Yukon basically

724
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 2: locks like you have too late twenty thousand dollars to

725
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 2: one hundred for Purdue to make any money there. They're

726
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 2: gonna be a one seed. Ucon's gonna be one seed.

727
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 2: Houston almost certainly going to be a one seed as well.

728
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 2: Their minus thirty five hundred. But the fourth one is interesting.

729
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 2: Arizona minus one fifty, Tennessee plus one seventy. We just

730
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: talked about them maybe getting another big win against Auburn

731
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 2: coming up here UNC down at nine to one. If

732
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 2: they went out through the ACC potentially could slide in there,

733
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: get another win at Duke Marquette, Alabama, Duke Kansas. Not

734
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 2: sure they can get there and pass any of those three.

735
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 2: But Kyle, where do you land on this? Given the

736
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 2: odds we're seeing right now with Arizona as the favorite

737
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 2: to be the fourth one seed.

738
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 3: I gobbled up Smerizona yesterday minus one forty hashtag sharp.

739
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 3: It's going to be hard for Arizona to lose the

740
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 3: one seed. Not only do they fill an easy role

741
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 3: in the West Region, which is not supposed to matter,

742
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 3: but it kind of fits just an easy peg right

743
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 3: for filling out the bracket purposes for the committee. It's

744
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 3: also going to be unlikely they lose the rest of

745
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 3: the regular season. They have the schedule numbers, they have

746
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 3: the predictives, they're very very high up in both metrics,

747
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 3: and again they should win out despite playing their three

748
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 3: or the last four games in the road, So I

749
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 3: think there's a very high chance, better than what is

750
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 3: in the market, that they get a one seed. Honestly, though,

751
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 3: if you want a value play, you can see at

752
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 3: nine to one for a one seed is I think

753
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 3: fantastic value. That team is probably fifth right now in

754
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 3: the S curve. If you look at Q one Q

755
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 3: two rate kings, you could say Tennessee. I think it's

756
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 3: un C, and I even see some people having them

757
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 3: as a one seed. Nine to one is good value

758
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 3: if you're really looking for that, But I think it's Arizona.

759
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, Arizona each with seven Q one wins, Tennessee only

760
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 2: with five. They've also got to go to Alabama, a

761
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 2: very losable game, whereas un C and Arizona likely have

762
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 2: a little more favorable schedules or I guess yeah, I

763
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 2: mean with the Duke game in there for UNC is tough.

764
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 3: I think it's really hard for Tennessee to pass Arizona.

765
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 3: They trail by two wins in the Q one section.

766
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 3: They have no bad loss like Arizona would have to lose. Again.

767
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: Basically, I like mark Kenna's a value play. I think

768
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: like they can get hot run through the East tournament.

769
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 3: But okay, like we've seen those several times, not to

770
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 3: turn us into a bracketology show conference. Tournaments don't matter

771
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 3: quite as much as people think in terms of bracketing.

772
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 2: Yes, yep, yeah, they just don't want to have to

773
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 2: move things around. So if you're kind of set in

774
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 2: a spot before then typically that's what the committee is

775
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: going to leave you. All right, that's the one seed discussion.

776
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 2: We've got some odds to make the tournament here where

777
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 2: I think there might be some opportunity. We've got Butler, Colorado, Providence,

778
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 2: Saint John's, Villanova, and Virginia listed here. Honestly a very

779
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 2: big East heavy flavor to this. For the six teams

780
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 2: listed are big East squads, we'll start with Butler Matthias there,

781
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 2: yes to make the tournament plus four to ten. That

782
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 2: is a major underdog to get to the dance. At

783
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 2: this point, we discussed how they might be eliminated if

784
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,720
Speaker 2: they lose at home to Saint John's. No. Minus seven

785
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 2: hundred Bart Torvick's Turney cast has them at seventeen point

786
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 2: nine percent. I'm not gonna tell you to bet minus

787
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 2: seven hundred Matthias, but I don't think they're gonna make

788
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 2: the dance.

789
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:39,399
Speaker 3: I would avoid like Big East long shots. I guess

790
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 3: that's probably I just think you Kon's so good, like

791
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 3: I think you at least want to.

792
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 1: You feel good.

793
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,359
Speaker 3: About a chance that a team can win from like

794
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 3: a four or a seven seed line and win your

795
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 3: tournament as a backup contingency plan, right Like, I just

796
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,760
Speaker 3: don't think you have any chance in the Big East

797
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 3: if you're not named you Con or maybe Marquette.

798
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: Honestly, I don't know.

799
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 3: Maybe I'll reach you for an angle there, but I

800
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 3: feel better about like an ACC long shot right or

801
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 3: an SEC long shot right leagues a little more wide open,

802
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:02,919
Speaker 3: I think.

803
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, And again, this is to make the terment not

804
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 2: to get at large, so winning the Conferencern that, however,

805
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 2: would be a winner for this And then kay, yeah,

806
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 2: a big part of these is remaining schedule. And Butler's

807
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,240
Speaker 2: got no real great chances like Saint John's at Holmes

808
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 2: Aver at home and at De Paul. Like, you're not

809
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 2: moving the needle with those, so they're kind of where

810
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 2: they are right now. It's very, very tough to envision

811
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 2: Butler getting there.

812
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 1: Agreed, Yeah, I would not take the s prop.

813
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:32,439
Speaker 2: There yep, And unfortunately you can't har ladies together. You could,

814
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,279
Speaker 2: you know, put Butler's no in there with something else

815
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 2: that would be that'd be fun, but unfortunately not an option.

816
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 2: Colorado their next team the yes to make the tournaments

817
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:44,879
Speaker 2: plus one forty so slight underdog no. Minus one eighty eight. Again,

818
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,879
Speaker 2: these have some pretty large vig to them, but it's

819
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 2: kind of an information base. You can beat the market here.

820
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 2: It's not a you know, head to head game matchups.

821
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,879
Speaker 2: I think there's still can be value if you do

822
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,399
Speaker 2: your research. Tourney Cast has them at a forty five

823
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 2: point two percent chance to make the tournament. Kai does

824
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 2: that mean there's some narrow edge on the plus money

825
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 2: price to make the dance?

826
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, for Colorado if they're right on the edge. The

827
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 3: problem with them is they lack key one wins. They

828
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,280
Speaker 3: only have one'd be really hard to make the tournament.

829
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 3: If that stays like that. Decent amount of Q two

830
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 3: wins kind of props them up, but they're not to

831
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 3: get nerdy again. But their resume metrics are right on

832
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 3: the cut line the average resume metrics, so it's gonna

833
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 3: be tough. I think that's kind of price barely. To

834
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 3: be honest, I'd probably stay with from Colorado for now.

835
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, they've got to win some tough ish games. Stanford home,

836
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 2: no real, gimme at Oregon State's been tough, and then

837
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 2: you have to win at Oregon. You need to add

838
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 2: that Q one win to their resumes. Kai mentioned a

839
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 2: little bit of a dearth of those there, Matt, do

840
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 2: you think Colorado can do that? Can they go to

841
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: Eugene and win in the Woods?

842
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 3: Yeah? I do because I don't Organs weird, And unfortunately

843
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 3: that win will be a harder win than I think

844
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 3: it'll be assessed in the resume of metrics.

845
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:53,359
Speaker 1: That's what's tough there.

846
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 3: But the selection committee does have organ States ad and

847
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 3: Santa Clara's AD and a big sky and I was

848
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 3: looking person West Coast bias. Maybe if you're looking to

849
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 3: take one of these packed from long shots, see do

850
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 3: you have some packed Although Oregon State is out going

851
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 3: to get a bat for other Pack twelve schools, I

852
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 3: don't think. If anything, they're gonna probably shove them in

853
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:11,879
Speaker 3: a locker and kick them in the curb.

854
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, there's a world right now where the

855
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 2: PAC twelve gets two teams it's Arizona, it's Washington State,

856
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 2: and that's it. Utah has traded, Colorado's kind of faded

857
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 2: hasn't done much down the stretch. Ucla not quite back

858
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 2: in the conversation, Yeah, it's realistic unless Colorado Oregon are

859
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 2: able to make a name for themselves down the stretch. Here.

860
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 2: All right, Providence, guys, this is one of my if

861
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 2: we had to call best bets from this section. I

862
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 2: think they're making the dance. They are minus one forty

863
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 2: four to make the dance, fifty one percent per turning

864
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 2: cast to make them. But Kai the resume is just clean, man,

865
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 2: there's no bad losses. They're five hundred against Q one

866
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 2: and Q two, a couple of really big wins. I

867
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 2: think the Friars is gonna end up dancing man, So

868
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 2: minus one thirty I don't hate it.

869
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 3: Five Q one wins is elite when you're talking bubble territory,

870
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 3: so I would agree. I think it's really hard to

871
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 3: keep them out, especially with the fact that they've proven

872
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 3: they can win without Bryce Hopkins. I think that would

873
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 3: be something normally that would matter if he was out

874
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 3: and they kind of tanked after that. The only issue

875
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 3: is you look at their remaining games. You're at Marquette,

876
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 3: you're against Yukon, that's two losses most likely, almost certainly.

877
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 3: Then you have your home against Villanova. That's a coin flip.

878
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 3: So if you go one in three down the stretch here,

879
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:29,760
Speaker 3: you're at nineteen and twelve. That's right on that ugly

880
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,280
Speaker 3: record line that the committee has kind of danced around

881
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 3: for years. I do think five q On wins gets

882
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 3: in there, though I would lean towards the yes on

883
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:39,959
Speaker 3: that bet, especially minus one thirty.

884
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: Obviously shop around.

885
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:42,919
Speaker 2: How would they be a lock if they get either

886
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:44,399
Speaker 2: the Marquette or the Yukon game.

887
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 1: Yes, a lock.

888
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 2: So that's a pretty big needle mover opportunities there, and

889
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 2: of course got to get the the Nova and in

890
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: the Georgetown wants to differentiate themselves Matthew, or do you

891
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 2: land on the friars? Yes?

892
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 3: No, Yeah, I think that's probably good bet. I think

893
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,439
Speaker 3: they I mean, I think they get one of tough

894
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 3: to say they've both on the road mark out in

895
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 3: the road just makes it so tough. But yeah, the

896
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 3: Georgetown game too, I mean, I gonna be Georgetown, but

897
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 3: like it's Providence as good as fist Day as they are.

898
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:10,919
Speaker 3: It's not a team that's gonna beat a bad team

899
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 3: with conviction. I just don't think they've so you got to.

900
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 1: Avoid a lamdmine there. I still think it a pretty.

901
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 3: Good bet though, and again biggest ternment you'll get a

902
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 3: probably opportioning to get one or two more quality wins.

903
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 2: There two more biggest teams, Saint John's next, and this

904
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 2: one has the biggest difference between price and Bart's tourney

905
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,399
Speaker 2: cast projection, where they're plus one thirty four to make

906
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 2: the dance for the odds, but bart Torovick's site has

907
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 2: them at sixty four percent to make the tournament. Kai

908
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 2: that number surprises me. I feel like they shouldn't be

909
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 2: sixty four percent to make the dance, given the resume

910
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 2: they've got out there right now. Maybe if you want

911
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 2: to play the numbers, the yes is a good bet,

912
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 2: but I'm still hesitanting.

913
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 3: Bart torreck doing the Rick Patino. I would like to say,

914
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:49,840
Speaker 3: as premium in his model, that's my that's my well.

915
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 3: I'd like to know how accurate the bart Torovick's model is, Like,

916
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,360
Speaker 3: I don't think that's what you should really say? Is

917
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 3: the end all be all? I think Bracken matrix is

918
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 3: much more accurate right now. Saint John is way on

919
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 3: the outside of that. Currently, they do have two Q

920
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 3: one A wins and they have six Q two's and

921
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 3: that's good. They had a Q three loss, not that bad,

922
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,360
Speaker 3: But I saw the problem is the resume metrics. The

923
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 3: average is right around sixty five. That's well out of

924
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 3: the at large consideration, and they are sixteen and twelve.

925
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 3: They have a lot of work to do. I still

926
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:24,280
Speaker 3: wouldn't be comfortable taking one thirty four quite yet.

927
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, they've got to eat Butler because their last two

928
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 2: games are at the Yeah, they less town. Those don't

929
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 2: move the needle. Yes, So they're very close to having

930
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 2: a final profile right now, and it's debatable if it's

931
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 2: good enough or not.

932
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 3: I guess theme is a ton of big East movers

933
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 3: and shakers in this section, Gym, So like you probably

934
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 3: can you know, hop all one of these at the

935
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 3: right time before markets adjust. I'll usually take these down,

936
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:48,919
Speaker 3: I think, and put them back up with a little

937
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 3: bit of time to spare.

938
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 2: But well not always, Matt, you kind of hinted at it,

939
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 2: but Kyle, we know they like to take a good

940
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,399
Speaker 2: brand name and shove them in the first four.

941
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, first four can be a pretty obvious one.

942
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just too that is that is maybe something

943
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 2: you'd have on your side if you take the plus

944
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 2: price on it.

945
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 3: New Mexico is playing Saint John's. Is there is there

946
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 3: a matchup first four? I can bet on that one.

947
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, the versus would.

948
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 3: They be allowed to they have played this year if

949
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 3: there's a rule of that, Oh, waited to play this year?

950
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: That's right.

951
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 2: New Mexican John's played last year. That was when I

952
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 2: last year?

953
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: Sorry, yeah, last year, My bad, all right.

954
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,919
Speaker 2: The last Big East team, Villanova, essentially a coin flip

955
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 2: here minus won twelve to make it minus one eighteen

956
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 2: to miss it. Tourny Cass has been fifty three percent. Matt.

957
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 2: I sort of think Villanova gets there because of the

958
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 2: big wins, but I don't think there's a lot of

959
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,839
Speaker 2: edge on betting it based on remaining schedule and who

960
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 2: they are and how erradic they can be.

961
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of sick of them.

962
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 3: It's it's a three of their final four games at

963
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 3: Providence at Seton Hall and then holding.

964
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 1: It's creating kem Pum houses a one point margin.

965
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:53,359
Speaker 3: So it's like they are walking the tightrope coin yeah,

966
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,879
Speaker 3: I mean straight off coin flip team. And I don't

967
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 3: know is there a brand name premium with Villanova. I

968
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 3: don't really think so, not anymore at least so I

969
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 3: think that's properly priced from the four looking kind now

970
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 3: bracket matrix. I'm not sure how they look on paper

971
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 3: right now, but there I think just now they're like

972
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 3: riding the bubble. But again, resume metrics is sixty one,

973
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 3: it's on the outside of the at large and that

974
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 3: that record is an I sore. If they go too

975
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 3: and two down the stretch seventeen to fourteen, that's not

976
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 3: a great mark for the committee they have. They'd have

977
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:21,720
Speaker 3: to win at least one game the Big Eiast tournament.

978
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 3: So now you're getting a lot of ifs you mentioned it,

979
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 3: three one point spreads, and then you have.

980
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 1: To win a game in the Biggie's Tournament. That's too

981
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 1: much of a of a change.

982
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 3: It took one too many weird losses of non kind

983
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,359
Speaker 3: like Penn, Saint Joe or Drexel. You need into won

984
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 3: one of those games. I guess you look at it

985
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,359
Speaker 3: the other way. They have three opportunities for Q one

986
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 3: wins in the last four games, So if they get

987
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 3: two Q one wins, that changes everything.

988
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 2: And the final team here. This will again be a

989
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 2: little bit of a differentiation between Bracket Matrix and Bart

990
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 2: Tork'storney cast. I think Virginia they are a favorite to

991
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 2: make the dance right now minus one thirty six and

992
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,280
Speaker 2: No is a plus price plus one oh two. Bart's

993
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 2: got the many fifth ffty percent coin flip chance to

994
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 2: make it. Kay, I like the no. I like the

995
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 2: plus price. On the know because they've got to go

996
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 2: to Boston College on Wednesday night. We're we're recording this Tuesday,

997
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 2: you'll hear this probably on Wednesday. And they have not

998
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 2: been a good road team so far this year, and

999
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 2: then they got to go to Duke. I do not

1000
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 2: envision them beating this Duke team, even if Flip is

1001
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 2: still a little banged up from his crowdstorm run in.

1002
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 2: And then the Georgia Tech game at home doesn't doesn't

1003
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 2: move the neal. They don't have a good home chance

1004
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 2: left on the schedule, and so are the the resume metrics,

1005
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 2: which are solid now going to age well enough. I

1006
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:32,320
Speaker 2: don't know, that's the question.

1007
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of Lean that they're in. I already

1008
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:37,720
Speaker 3: have twenty wins. You said the resume metrics, they're really solid.

1009
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 3: They're thirty six average right now, and they have three

1010
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,800
Speaker 3: Q one wins, three Q two wins. It's going to

1011
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 3: be dicey, but I wouldn't feel comfortable taking the no

1012
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 3: price right now. I got a stinky feeling they are

1013
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 3: in that Duke game next week. That's going to be

1014
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 3: a way too close for comfort game for Duke fans.

1015
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 3: And I remember a bad Virginia team two years ago.

1016
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:57,879
Speaker 3: That was the nit team I believe went into Duke

1017
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 3: and stun Duke and pretty like whoa fashion.

1018
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 1: So, I don't know. I could see Tony Bennett point

1019
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:04,399
Speaker 1: little rap it out of his you know what.

1020
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean their grinders, slow down the game, make

1021
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: it a half court I'll go fest and they've got

1022
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 2: a chance. But there also is the kind of perception

1023
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 2: of they've lost games by like thirty twenty five, thirty

1024
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 2: five twenty five on the road, just been blown out

1025
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: and been completely outclassed on the road a few times.

1026
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 2: I could see that working against them. Just some of

1027
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 2: the If a committee member wants to cite an eye

1028
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 2: test factor, I think Virginia would fail that.

1029
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, sixty fifth in Kempom versus Wake at nineteen, like

1030
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 3: another team that's going to probably be on that bubble,

1031
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 3: you know what I mean. Not that Kempom is going

1032
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 3: to be deciding factor if for any dinosaur on that group,

1033
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 3: but still I know it's becoming more and more important.

1034
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 1: That doesn't look very good.

1035
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 2: Yep, yep, agreed. And yeah again, just the bad road

1036
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 2: team going to Boston College and Duke is scary for me.

1037
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 2: If they dropped that Boston College, you could end up

1038
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 2: getting a much better price on the Yes, so perhaps

1039
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 2: it's worth waiting if you do think they're gonna make

1040
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 2: it all right, fellas. That wraps it up for us

1041
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,280
Speaker 2: this week here on our Wednesday edition of Big Bets

1042
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 2: on Campus. Thank you everybody for tuning in. We should

1043
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 2: have one more of these next week in the final

1044
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 2: regular season week of the year. Then we will have

1045
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:09,399
Speaker 2: all kinds of conference tournament previews. We'll be crossing over

1046
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 2: with with Stuckey and Mike Calbers and all the guys

1047
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 2: from the typical feed here excited for that. The best

1048
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 2: time of the year is on the horizon. So once again,

1049
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 2: thanks to Bet MGM, thanks to you the listeners, and

1050
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 2: we'll see you next week.

1051
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1052
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1053
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler